Lets Talk Money

August 31st, 2025. 

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
I am here with you this weekend, folks, and I

(00:02):
can't believe it. I said it yesterday on the show.
Tomorrow is September first. How the heck did that happen?
Where did the summer go? It seems like we were
just kind of in our aduldrums and misery in June
with all the rain, and then we had a pretty
decent summer, only a few days of rain here and there,

(00:23):
and this weekend is absolutely gorgeous, drop dead gorgeous weather.
If you don't like this weather, I'm not sure if
you like anything or much of anything, but tomorrow's September first,
and tomorrow's Labor Day. So for all of my clients
that are listening, you know, I guarantee you that you
won't lose any money on Saturday and Sunday. Every Saturday

(00:46):
and Sunday, and this week we have a bonus stay Monday.
You won't lose any money in the stock market on
Monday either, because the stock markets are closed. We're going
to have a short trading week Tuesday through Friday. Of
news happening this week, some reports on the economy, the
jobs report, the Big Jobs Report, but equity and fixed

(01:08):
income markets are closed for Labor Day on Monday, that's tomorrow,
September first. Now for the next hour, if you have
any questions, any questions whatsoever, give me a call. I'm
sitting here the Leah, my producer, and I would love
to talk to you. Love to get your pointed in
the right direction, hopefully help you out somehow someway. The

(01:32):
phone lines are open one eight hundred Talk WGY one
eight hundred eight two five five nine four nine Any
questions whatsoever, folks, One eight hundred eight two five fifty
nine forty nine on this gorgeous morning. And I can't
thank you enough for tuning in. You're the reason why

(01:55):
our show really one of the premiere shows on well
Managed and investing around the country. I get so many
compliments on the show between my colleagues and myself doing
the radio. This is our thirtieth year doing radio, and
you hear me say often I get energized to do

(02:16):
the show, folks. I never tire of it. I love
being here talking with you, giving you ideas, giving you
things to think about, giving you my own personal opinions
which not everybody agrees with, but you know it comes
from my heart. So please don't hold it against me
or judge me. It's just my own personal opinions, and

(02:38):
I try my best to to, you know, give you
the best amount of information I can give you. As
I said, if you have any questions, one eight hundred
eighty two five five nine four nine. So this past week,
you know, it's the markets took a little breather. Listen,

(03:00):
we've had four straight months of gains in the market.
August is no different. August was the fourth straight month
the markets were up. And when you go back to
February March when the markets were down, the SMP down
just about twenty percent. I think intra day it did
hit twenty percent, which officially technically is considered a bear market,

(03:23):
but it finished the day down just shy of twenty percent,
so I guess we can't record it as a bear market.
Nasak Russell two thousand absolutely were in bear market territory.
A lot of people got scared. I talked about this
yesterday and here we sit. You know, the SMP year
to date is up over ten percent, with dividends NASDAK

(03:46):
and the Nasdaq one hundred composite that are known as
QQQ up just about eleven eleven and a half percent.
Even the Russell two thousand is up six point one percent.
But for this week you had the Russell two thousand
was the leting major index up almost zero point two percent,
SMP down point one percent, Nasna Composite down point two percent.

(04:12):
In QQQ, the Nanstack one hundred was down point three
five percent. So we gave a little bit back this week,
but that's okay. The big winners this week Gold up
almost three percent, sitting at record highs almost near thirty
five hundred dollars an ounce, and Energy Energy was up

(04:33):
two point four five percent for the week. They were
the winners. So there you have it. That's that's how
the markets fared this week. I'm very happy to be
sitting here with the ten percent game SMP, which is
really the stock market, the broad stock market. For the
most part. This past week you had Jackson Hole, you know,

(04:54):
that went on and all the news showed we're talking
with all the economists and you know, Jay Powell and everybody.
On Monday, President Trump tried to fire a Federal Reserve governor,
Lisa Cook. I guess she's now suing President Trump, although
she hasn't been in charge with anything, and she is

(05:18):
determined not to resign. We'll see how that plays out.
You know, this president doesn't fool around, he doesn't mince words.
He calls it like it is, and he gets things
done quickly. And he doesn't like the fact that he
feels Lisa cooked some wrong and he is trying to
fix it. He wants he doesn't want anybody who's doing

(05:40):
anything wrong to be anywhere near him. So we'll see
how that plays out. Nividia results beat expectations, but its
shares fell on China uncertainties. Why is China important. It's
the second largest economy in the world, right behind us,
not right behind us, but China would love to catch

(06:01):
up to us. So you know, our economy is over
twenty trillion dollars, China's in the mid teens, and everybody
else's five trillion or less. So China is afforced to
be reckon with. And that's why whenever there's news coming
out of China, or is the video said, uncertainties about China.

(06:23):
We'll see what plays out with the tariffs and everything else.
But China's a forced to be reckoned with, and that's
why so many people are fixated on what goes on
and what may happen to China. You know, this administration
doubled tariffs on India to fifty percent, ended tariff exceptions
on small packages. And as I said, you know, the

(06:46):
S and P dow new highs on Thursday, and then
they gave back a little bit on Friday. So once
again for the week, the S and P up one
tenth of a percent, I'm sorry, THEP down one tenth percent,
and then Stack down two tenths of a percent. So
there you have it. That was kind of a wrap

(07:08):
up of the week. Some news within different companies. The
Trump administration ordered or staid to stop work on a
one point five billion wind far off Rhode Island that
was eighty percent completed. Now this is interesting for all
of those people that do not want that wind farm. Now,

(07:30):
if it's eighty percent completed, do they just leave that
standing with a half you know, I can't say the
word on radio, but you know what I'm going to say,
or trying to say half, you know, completed windmill farm.
I don't know. You know, at this point, I guess

(07:53):
they should probably they should probably finish it, right, I'm
pretty sure they're not gonna break it and you know,
build it somewhere else. I don't think those things are
easy easy to do. There you have it. The administration
stopped any more work on that. SpaceX successfully launched a

(08:14):
test flight of its Starship rocket. Elon Musk's XAI sued
Apple and open Ai claiming antitrust violations. You had Interactive
Brokers joined the SMP, replacing Walgreens Boots Alliance, which was
acquired by Sycamore Partners. I think you know, Interactive Brokers

(08:38):
brings a different dynamic to the SMP. So that's the
newest company in the sm P. The Wall Street Journal
reported that Exon Mobile held talks with Russia's rows Left
on restoring its pro Ukraine war partnership. Hopefully that war
will come to an end. Trump fired as recently confirmed

(08:59):
Centers for just Pase Control and Prevention chief after she
clashed with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Junior over vaccines.
So that's the news this coming week. As I said,
the markets are closed on Monday. Both stock and non
markets are closed on Tuesday. You had the Institute for
Supply Management releases both its manufacturing and services purchasing managers

(09:25):
in Dexas for August. The estimate for manufacturing PMI released
on Tuesdays for about a forty eight point nine reading
about one point more than in July. Expectations for the
services PMI are for fifty point five, little bit higher
than previously thought. You have Sales Force and BROADC releasing

(09:48):
earnings on Wednesday, and then on Friday the Big jobs report,
and right now Economists forecasts a seventy five percent increase
for non farm payrolls, two thousand more than in July.
But remember, and I said this yesterday, the number that
they release is one thing. What you want to pay

(10:09):
attention to is the revised number for the previous two months.
This is when you'll get a better idea of what
really happened the previous two months. Sometimes they're revised up,
sometimes down, but it's the revision that means a lot,
because that's really a more true number. The unemployment rate

(10:30):
expected to tick up the four point three from four
point two, So we'll see what happens. This all feeds
into the Federal Reserve meeting mid month. More than likely
they will probably lower interest rates. They probably should. The
economy is not as robust as it was and the

(10:51):
reason why they lower interest rates, interest rates, the Fed
Funds rate is to stimulate the economy. Get the economy going.
Lower rates, lower mortgage rates, lower borrowing rates means that
consumers who make up two thirds of the economy will
hopefully go out maybe buy a home, maybe buy a

(11:11):
second halt. Right now, consumers are holding on to their
homes because they may have a two three four percent
mortgage and the last thing they want to do is
replace that home if they have to get a six
or seven percent mortgage, because that really cuts into what
one can afford. So that's why interest rates are so important,

(11:33):
and cutting interest rates stimulates the economy because the consumer
gets all hyped up, goes out there borrow some money.
The Leiah. I'm going to take a quick fifteen second preak, folks,
don't go anywhere. Let me just take a couple SIPs
of my coffee. One eight hundred eight two five five
nine four nine one eight hundred eight two five fifty

(11:55):
nine forty nine. Here I am. I'm back, and I'm
live Stephen sitting here with you. And our website's pretty good, folks.
If you've never been to our website, go to our website.
You know we have right on the home page we
have our webinars, which my team does an amazing job
with webinars. You know, the webinars we do are really informative.

(12:20):
The last one we did on August sixth was one
big beautiful bill understanding the key tax provisions for individuals,
and it was really pretty good. They're only thirty minutes long.
And back on July sixteenth, Ryan and Pollo did the
second quarter twenty twenty five market update from tariff uncertainty

(12:41):
to new all time highs. As I said, take a
look at our webinars. We're real proud of it. We
also have a blog and if by chance you misspass
radio shows, that's on there as well. Our white paper
on the homepage right now is Simplifying Your Estate for
your loved Ones, written by Catherine Buck better known in

(13:02):
our office as Katie Buck, and she's really one of
our rock stars. Another one written by Marty Shields, how
will Consumers respond to tariffs? Testing economic theory? And then
another written by my son Ryan, narrowing the gap between
sentiment sentiment in reality. So those are the three latest

(13:25):
sonics and they're good information, but for today, right now
give me a call. Do you have any questions, any
questions whatsoever. I am here sitting with the Liab, my producer,
and we would love to talk to you. One eight
hundred eight two five five nine four nine one eight
hundred eight two five fifty nine forty nine any questions

(13:47):
whatsoever on this gorgeous Sunday morning. And it's a long weekend.
As I said, I guarantee you you won't lose money.
You won't make money either in the stock market. The
stock markets are closed yesterday, today and tomorrow for the
holiday Labor Day, so nobody's making money. Nobody's losing money.
About the only action you're going to get is betting

(14:09):
college football or crypto. You know, Bitcoin sitting at one
hundred and eight thousand dollars. You know, it was around
one hundred and twenty thousand. I talked about it yesterday.
I own some bitcoin in my one of my sandbox accounts.
I like it. I have no intentions of selling it. Actually,

(14:31):
I may think about buying a little bit more At
one hundred and eight thousand. I think crypto's here to stay.
I think as it becomes easier, especially, you'll see cryptos
soon in your forum on k Plan. We don't own
it yet. For our clients, we may. We'll be talking
about that this week with the Investment Committee. You know,

(14:53):
crypto gets to a level that we like, we may
just put a little bit in the portfolios for diversification.
As I said, it's not going anywhere, so we might
as well, you know, ride it up when it goes up.
And it's a volatile asset class. So for those of
you that really don't like volatility, seeing things go up

(15:16):
and down, up and down, up and down, and that's
what happens when you invest, not only in stocks, but
all asset classes. They all go up and down in price.
But if you don't like to see that, then you
absolutely don't want crypto because crypto is probably more volatile,
more up and down than other asset classes. But as

(15:37):
I said, I think the future for crypto is pretty good.
I still I talked about it yesterday. I still like
bonds at these levels. You can buy a six month
bond a treasury right now at four percent, and right
now you're not paying state income tax on that, so
it's a little bit more. One year about three point

(15:58):
eight five percent, five year three point seven percent, ten
year four point two percent, thirty year almost five percent.
The thirty year treasury is yielding almost five percent. And
I like treasuries. Nothing against CDs, but treasuries, as I said,
are state tax free, and obviously I think it's some

(16:22):
of the safest money in the world. Actually, I do
think it's the safest money in the world. So I
don't think it can go wrong with treasuries. There's a
great country of ours isn't going anywhere. So we'll see.
We'll see what happens with interest rates when the Fed meets.
I think they finished their two day meeting on September seventeenth.
Then I expect them to probably lower interest rates. And

(16:47):
as I said, my personal opinion is they probably should
lower interest rates. We'll see what happens. You know, the
headline news obviously this week again is going to be terrorfs,
more terrors, and more terrors on top of more terrors.
So you know, this president and his administration is focused

(17:09):
on terriffs. They're trying to balance out the trading and
efficiencies around the world US with other countries. On Friday,
there was a ruling from the US Court of Appeals
that basically throw through a wrench into President Trump's trade agenda.

(17:29):
It leaves his reciprocal tariffs in limbo. We'll see what happens.
It'll probably go all the way up to the Supreme Court.
Trump has said that he will appeal the ruling to
the Supreme Court. Trump's sector specific terriffs, including on copper
and steel, remains safe from the ruling, potentially basically, you know,

(17:53):
giving us a new trade playbook Trump could use of
his reciprocal terrorsts are blocked. So it's all all about terrors.
It's like that song Megan Train, It's all about the base.
And then there was a parody about the Turkey base.
It's all about the base. I still can can see

(18:13):
that in my mind, all about the base. It's all
about the base. Right now on the investment markets, it's
all about terrors. And there you have it, folks. You
know those are the big headlines. Won eight hundred eight
two five five nine four nine. That's one eight hundred
eight two five fifty nine forty nine. If you have

(18:34):
any questions, I would love love to talk to you,
you know. So Friday the markets were down, even though
for the month of August the markets were up, and
that was a beautiful thing. I love it when I
can sit here and say the markets were up, but
Friday we gave a little bit back, and just a
little bit. The all three indexes were were up in

(18:59):
August somewhere between one point six and three point two percent.
Now it's September, historically the worst month for stocks. It's
easy to list the reasons it could live up to
its reputation. Especially this September. Investors are counting on the
Federal Reserve to say the day with that interest rate
cut when the meeting ends on September seventeen. If they

(19:23):
do cut interest rates, folks don't sell out of stocks.
That'll be really setting the tone for stocks. And I'm
very optimistic about the stock market. There's no reason not
to be optimistic. I'm very optimistic. I had a conversation
yesterday with somebody and I said, I just don't see
any reason for the markets to really take a big

(19:44):
hit to go down. We're not nearing the recession. Sure,
there's a lot of uncertainties out there, but this economy
has been pretty resilient, and you know, we're doing okay,
We're you know, we're not doing great, but almost like goldilocks.
Not too hot, not too cold, just right. We're doing okay.

(20:04):
The big report this week will be the jobs report
September fifth. We'll see probably, you know, somewhere around eighty
thousand jobs is the estimate last month. Disappointing, disappointing seventy
three thousand jobs, and the revised numbers were even down

(20:25):
for the two previous months. So we'll see what happens
this Friday. With the jobs report. You also have producer
and consumer inflation data do out on September tenth and eleven,
so both consumer, the producer and consumer will get reports
on that. Investors are still worry about the potential for

(20:47):
terrorfs to hurt consumer spending and corporate profits. But so far,
you know, corporate America has been earning some pretty decent profits.
So I don't see where that's going to be a
a big thing. You know, listen, it's baked into the cake, folks.
There's no surprise. We are stuck with tariffs, at least
right now, we're stuck with tariffs. So where's the surprise?

(21:10):
What the market doesn't like our surprises? Well, right now,
there are no surprises. We know what to expect. We
know what's coming. We just don't know just how much
it will affect us. You know, even rape cuts aren't given,
but more than likely we'll probably get them. And this
bed is listen, they depend on data. They have their nose,

(21:35):
their noses stuck into that textbook like they're still in college.
They haven't haven't come up from you know, all that
historical data. You know, this bed is very data dependent
because of that, you know, because they never lifted their
head out of the textbook. They missed inflation hitting nine

(21:58):
point two percent a few years ago. They were late
to the party then for raising interest rates, and they
may be late to the party for lowering interest rates.
In hindsight, everything's crystal clear. Last, but not least before
the news break. The SMP trades right now at twenty
two point five times twelve month forward earnings. And is

(22:20):
you measure the round Hill Magnificent seven exchange fund that's yielding,
or that's trading at twenty nine times the equal weight index,
which we'll talk about maybe in the second half of
the show, trades for just seventeen point two times. Folks
were coming up to the bottom of the hour. We're
going to take a break for news. You are listening

(22:41):
to Let's Talk Money, brought to you by Bouchef and
Answer Group, where we help our clients prioritize their health
while we manage their wealth for life. Don't go anywhere.
The phone lines are open. One eight hundred eight two five,
five nine four nine. One eight hundred eight two five
fifty nine forty nine any questions whatsoever. One eight hundred

(23:04):
eight two five five nine four nine. Hello, folks, Thanks
for hanging in through the news. More importantly, thank you
for tuning in today. I truly appreciate it every weekend.
You're here for us. You're loyal, and I hope that
you like the information and ideas that we give you
in return. Whether it's me or my colleagues who are

(23:28):
really I'm so blessed to be surrounded by such a
talented group of colleagues, all twenty of them. I have
twenty professionals that I'm surrounded by. My service team, my
operations team, my traders, my wealth advisors, my leadership team.
Who I have now I can call them shareholders. Their

(23:50):
partners in the firm, Ryan, Marty and John are shareholders,
so they're really going to help drive the growth of
the firm and set the culture which I've spent thirty
five years setting. We have a culture where our clients

(24:11):
come first. Nothing else matters. All we care about is
what's right for our clients. We don't care about anything else.
We've been a fiduciary. God I changed. I stopped selling
investments back in nineteen ninety three and became a fiduciary.
So for thirty two plus years, I've been a fiduciary.

(24:31):
Back then, nobody knew what a fiduciary really was. I
was a trailblazer. Today is a buzzword, But I've been
a fiduciary. My firm's ben a fiduciary for thirty two years,
and I'm very proud of that. Really, I can't begin
to tell you how proud I am of what we
do for our clients. My entire team and I just

(24:54):
they are second to none. But if you have any
questions today for me, please give us a call to Leah,
my producer. You will love talking with her and she'll
get you on the board so I can pick you up.
One eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine
one eight hundred eighty two five fifty nine forty nine.

(25:16):
So we had the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index this week,
and you know, basically for the for the for the
for the most part, the headline number of the PCE
year over year two point six percent, just about matching
June's reading core PCE two point nine percent year over year,

(25:42):
a slight increase from the two point eight percent for
the month. Month over month, overall price consumer expenditure up
two tens of a percent, Core PCE up three tenths
of a percent, and basically, you know, headline inflation as
I said, which is the overall number of two point

(26:03):
six year over year, consistent with the Fed's recent trajectory,
and the core, which continues to be a little harder
to understand, ticking up two point nine percent. It excludes
food and energy, reinforcing concerns about persistent price pressures and
services in other sectors, and the small, modestly monthly increases

(26:29):
basically suggest inflation is steady, not accelerating sharply, but it's there.
And this is why more than likely the FED will
cut in September when they meet sixteenth and seventeenth, when
at two fifteen, when Federal Reserve Chairman J Powell comes
out to the podium. We'll find out then if they

(26:51):
left interest rates along, if they cut them or raise them.
I don't really think they'll be raising them, but I
do think personally they will. They will cut them in
right now, the shift the focus is shifting to the
labor market data on Friday. That's really what the Fed
will be looking at. And they'll also have some other

(27:12):
reports on the economy. As I said on September tenth
and eleventh, we'll have the producer and consumer information that
comes out, and you know, the CPI Consumer Price Index
is another popular way to look at inflation, but the
Fed basically prefers the PCE, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price Index,

(27:38):
over the Consumer Price ind. It's broader coverage. PCE tracks
a wider range of goods and services, especially in the
healthcare and services, which are a big part of household spending. Listen,
healthcare is not going anywhere. We don't have socialized medicine.
Healthcare in this country is very expensive, very very expend

(28:01):
PCE consumer behavior. If state prices jump and people switch
the chicken PCEE accounts for that shift. CPI doesn't adjust
as quickly. It's really just a fixed basket. And you know,
these are some of the reasons why the Fed prefers

(28:22):
the PCE. It's smoother, it's broader, better reflects how consumers
actually spend. And this is why it's the Fed's favorite,
their favorite index. So there you have it. You know,
last week it just I think proof that the Fed

(28:43):
will and should cut just a little bit. And you know,
the FED maintains two percent inflation. And listen, when you
look at the historical inflation rates, the long term average,
if you go back over the last one hundred and
ten years, now that's long term, folks, three point two

(29:05):
percent annually, three point two percent annually. During the forties
and fifties, inflation averaged about five percent. Because of the
war and the aftermath spending. The seventies and early eighties,
inflation the highest probably ever know, surged to double digits,

(29:26):
peaking at thirteen point five percent nineteen eighty and nineteen
eighty one. The mortgage rates were sixteen to eighteen percent.
If you remember, it was not pretty back then. Inflation
the price of goods and services going up thirteen point
five percent. If you wanted to borrow money to get
a home, Holy moly, you were paying through the roof

(29:49):
the mid eighties to the beginning of the financial crisis
two thousand and seven, inflation was stable around two to
three percent. In two thousand and eight, the financial cris
is onward, inflation was below two percent. The FED got
used to that below two percent twenty twenty one, twenty

(30:10):
twenty two, the beginning of pandemic. The inflation went to
nine point one nine point two percent June of twenty
twenty two, the worst since the nineteen eighties nine point
one percent. And you know, since twenty twenty three, we're
back to about a three percent headline number. As I
just gave you two point six for the overall PCEE

(30:34):
inflation rate, two point nine for the core inflation rate.
You know, now you may ask yourself, as I do,
why does the FED target two percent when long term
I just gave you the facts that inflation has averaged
three point two percent. Why well, price stability without deflation.

(30:56):
A little inflation keeps the economy away from deflation, which
is when prices fall, which can stall spending and investment. Historically,
deflation has been you know, think about the Great Depression,
pretty pretty upsetting. You have flexibility if inflation is around
two percent. The FED has ruined the cut rates in

(31:18):
the downturn without really hitting zero or negative rates. The
global standard. If you look at central banks around the world,
they're all looking at a target of about two percent,
originally set by New Zealand in the late eighties. It's
high enough to avoid deflation, low enough that consumers don't notice.

(31:38):
So two percent is the magical number. That's the number
that everybody would love to see, and the credibility factor
for the FED. They've emphasized two percent for decades. Changing
the target risks undermining trust, so they're not going to
do that, even though inflation often runs above it. The
FED treats two percent as it's anchor. And I said yesterday,

(32:03):
why does the FED have a two percent target when
inflation is three percent or more? And you know, there
you have it. The rest of the world has a
target to two percent. Two percent is the magic number.
I think it's going to be hard to get down
there to two percent, especially with labor. I mean, I
get my newspapers every weekend at Stuart's and there's a

(32:24):
big sign on the door twenty dollars an hour. Folks,
if you're willing to work at Stuarts from nine at
night to five in the morning, you can get paid
twenty dollars an hour. Just five years ago or so,
those jobs right nine ten dollars an hour. So that's
not coming down. You're not going to go to somebody
and say, hey, the economy looks better, we're going to

(32:46):
lower your your hourly rate from twenty down to ten again.
Now those days are behind us. I remember all the
arguments we had over the last you know, decade or two,
where we ranted to up the federal mandated minimum wage
to like ten dollars and everybody said, oh, no, it'll

(33:07):
put small businesses out of business and big corporations can't
afford it. And my answer to that is, listen, I'm
a small business. If I make less money because I'm
taking care of my team and paying them a fair
wage and compensating them for the great work they do,
then so be it. So the firm makes less in profits,

(33:28):
there you have it. I have no problems with that.
So it's important that the people and the people that
really make most companies successful are those workers that are
working their rear end off. I'm blessed not to brag,
but let me brag a little bit. I'm blessed to
have twenty talented professionals that I'm surrounded by, and I'm

(33:54):
tickled pink. I don't care if the firm makes a
whole lot less money. I'm tickled to do my best
to make sure I'm as fair to our team, more
than fair I get every year, I look at every
compensation metric in the country, and I always make sure
that my people are well above what the going rate is.

(34:16):
I appreciate my team. They are good. We just made
an offer to a new gentleman, and hopefully he'll accept.
He may have accepted already. It's the holiday weekend. I
don't know, but I told them, the longer you're with us,
the more valuable you are to us. Whereas with big corporations,
sometimes you're just the number. It's you know, the newest

(34:39):
one in is the first one to go out when
there's tough time. So while I'm just the opposite. I
mentioned yesterday, during the great financial collapse seven through March
ninth of O nine, I actually had a line of credit.
I went to every one of my colleagues told them,
no matter what, no matter how bad things get do
not worry about your job. You will still continue to

(35:01):
get paid. Now I may not have gotten paid, but
that's okay. I can dip into my savings. But I
wanted to make sure that my colleagues knew that their
job was safe and I had a line of credit
secure because they were crazy times back then. You know,
we that was as rough as it's been since the

(35:21):
Great Depression one hundred years ago almost, And you know,
I just made sure that my colleagues knew. And that's
that's where the value of having, you know, a work
environment where you're trusted. So I guess where I'm going
with this is, you know, labor is not coming down,
and labor is a big part of inflation. But labor,

(35:45):
you know, you're not going to reduce. Listen, I don't
care if you're working at Walmart, Target, Amazon, I don't
care if it's a local pizza store or Stuarts. You're
getting paid at least fourteen dollars fifteen dollars an hour
and more with benefits and flexibility, and workers finally are
being treated fairly, and I applaud that. And once again,

(36:09):
so if an owner of a small business maybe makes
a little bit less, and unfortunately, sometimes some people just
won't be able to stay in business because of it,
and my heart goes out for that. But the big
picture is that people are being treated fairly. They're being
able to afford the food to bring home to their family,

(36:34):
afford rent, afford to pay their heating bills, and that's important.
That's the least we can do. And as far as
big publicly traded corporations, once again, if shareholders make less
money because they're treating their workers right, then I'm all
for that. So Stuart's twenty dollars an hour, nine o'clock
to five in the morning not bad? What eight eighty two,

(36:57):
five five nine four nine, eight eighty two, five fifty
nine forty nine. Give me a call. I'm going to
take a quick fifteen second break, so don't go anywhere
here I am folks. You have me live today. I
have some great colleagues that helped me with the show.
After doing the show for thirty years, working every weekend,
and it's nice to get a break. And my colleagues really,

(37:21):
you know, they they love doing the show, just like
I love doing the show. We're all in it together.
We all have you know, I'm so blessed to have
the team that I have, the talent that they have,
and just the values of how they care about our clients.
Just I couldn't write a better script. Everybody from my

(37:42):
you know, fellow partners, my leadership team, all the way
down to the newest hire, we all had the same
thing going for us. And this is a culture that
I've had going on for thirty five years where clients
come first. That's all that matters is doing the right
thing for clients. Nothing else matters. And sometimes you're telling

(38:04):
clients things that they don't want to hear, but that's
our job as a professional. It's like going into the
doctor and if you have cancer and the doctor says,
I'll just go home, take a couple of aspirins and
drink some orange juice because they don't want to give
you the bad news. That's not what you expect from
your doctor, and that's not what our clients, sho should

(38:25):
expect from us. We're not selling anything. We are advising
our clients on what's best for them. And with the
credentials that we have, I think we have sixteen different
credentials out of the twenty professionals that I'm surrounded by
nine cfps, CPAs irs and rolled agents. You get the picture.

(38:47):
We have a lot of people that have gone above
and beyond to be experts in their fields. And this
is why we work as a team, so that anybody
on the team can help our clients. And it's it's
it's really a beautiful thing. On eight hundred eighty two
five five nine four nine one eight hundred eighty two

(39:09):
five fifty nine forty nine, give me a call if
you have any questions. So I talked about interest rates
on the first half of the show and they're still
pretty good now. The downside to being paid more in
your savings, the counties interest rates for you know, fifteen
years after the financial collapse was you know, near zero.

(39:31):
That's why inflation was near zero, nowhere to be found. So,
you know, in some ways that's good. But anybody who
wanted let's say, fixed income instruments, whether it be CDs
or bonds in their portfolio in order to to have
less volatility, then they weren't being paid anything. Now they're

(39:53):
being paid, you know, somewhere between four and five percent,
depending on how short term or long term you go.
But it also affects mortgages. And I mentioned how the
consumer makes up two thirds of the economy, and the
consumers is important to the future of this country. The

(40:13):
consumer has to feel good. So right now we have
mortgage rates somewhere between six point five six point six percent. Now,
we were spoiled. We had mortgage rates go back to
twenty twenty one between two and three percent. Beautiful thing. Now,
if you go back to October of eighty one, mortgage

(40:34):
rates were eighteen and a half percent. In the early seventies,
morgage rates were seven and a half percent. In the
late seventies, mortgage rates were eleven percent. And here we
sit somewhere around six point five six point six percent.
The long term average for mortgage rates is seven point
seven percent, So, believe it or not. As high as

(40:56):
mortgage rates seen these we were spoiled. We had low
mortgage rates for so long. As high as mortgage rates
seen right now, there's still lower than the long term average.
So the long term average is almost eight percent, seven
point seven and we sit today at let's say six
point five. Sure it's not the two to three percent

(41:18):
that we were spoiled with just four years ago, but
it's still less than the long term average. If the
FED cuts in a couple of weeks, then you may
see mortgage rates come down a little bit. Mortgage rates
are funny. Sometimes they come down, sometimes they don't. It's
like gas prices. Right when the price of oil goes down.
How come the gallon of gas at the pump doesn't

(41:42):
come down as quickly as the price of oil. Well
there's a lot of arguments that go into that. But
mortgage rates, you know, they should come down. Let me
put it that way. They should come down, and hopefully
they will so that consumers can afford a new house.
Maybe consumers will be interesting and then selling their house
to replace it with another house. You know, four years ago,

(42:05):
that was going on every day because mortgage rates were
so cheap. You can sell a house, get into a
new house. I mean, the heck, they were almost giving
you money. Mortgage rates were so cheap. And I hate
the work cheap, but mortgage rates were real low, and
it was like stealing money. And I said that, I remember,

(42:26):
I said it often. Hey, if you wanted to buy
a home or a second home, a vacation home, I
don't care what you wanted to buy. With mortgage rates
and interest rates being as low as they were, that
was a gift, folks. We don't get that much. As
you can see, you know, all the way from the
early seventies with seven and a half percent mortgages to now,

(42:46):
and the long term average is seven point seven. You know,
even though today at six point five we're at a
ten month low, you know, it's a whole lot less
than the record highs of over eight teen percent in
the early eighties. I know, it's a lot higher than
the the you know, two to three percent mortgage rates

(43:07):
that we were spoiled with at the beginning of the pandemic.
But while the mid six percent rate, sure, it's elevated
from where it was, but it's still lower historically speaking.
And that's what you have to think about and keep
your your mind open to the fact that more than likely,

(43:31):
you know, the neighborhood of let's say, five to seven
percent is probably where mortgage rates will be. I don't
know if we'll go back into the five percent. Maybe
we will. I don't know, we'll we'll we'll see. So
one eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine
one eight hundred eighty two five fifty nine forty nine.

(43:52):
If you have any questions, folks, I would love to
talk to you. I've been talking to you a lot,
but I would love to talk to you and answer
your questions. So, if you have any questions, give me
a call. Any questions whatsoever, give me a call and
let's let's talk about it. I talked a little bit

(44:16):
about the equal weight sm P five hundred index. So basically, folks,
if you take a look at the S and P
five hundred, you know the top ten holdings account for
almost thirty eight thirty nine percent. You know you got
Navidia eight percent, Microsoft almost seven percent, Apple six point

(44:39):
three percent, Amazon almost four percent, Meta which is Facebook
almost three percent, Broadcom almost two point six percent, Google,
both asset classes almost four percent, Tesla one point seven percent,
Birkshare half away class being one point six percent, and

(45:01):
last rounding out the top ten, JP Morgan one point
five to two percent of the SMP. If you had
those who all up, they account for thirty eight percent
of the S and P. There's five hundred and four holdings.
Now go ahead, ask me, Steve, how come if it's
the S and P five hundred index, should there be
five hundred holdings. Well yeah, hypothetically speaking, but Google has

(45:27):
two asset classes, you know, class A, Class C. Berkshire
Hathway has Class A Class B. So there you have it.
That's why you have five hundred and four stocks in
that index. And the SMP is really the index you
should be looking at. Forget about the Dow. The Dow
is only thirty stocks. Sure it's a popular index, some

(45:48):
good companies in there, but if you really want to
sure sign of what's going on in the economy, you
want to look at the SMP. Folks, you are listening
to Let's Talk Money, brought to you by Bouchet, a
nswry group where we help our clients prioritize their health
while we manage their wealth for life. I can't thank
you not for tuning in today and tuning in every weekend.

(46:10):
Go to our website Booche dot com. That's BIS and
boy O U C h e y dot com. There's
a lot of good information there, podcast webinars, you know,
some some white paper, a lot of good information. In
the meantime, enjoy this gorgeous day, be well, stay healthy.

(46:31):
Thank you, Thank you from the bottom of my heart
for tuning in come back next Saturday at ten, Sunday
at eight. In the meantime, enjoy this holiday weekend. Bye bye, folks.