Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Hello, everybody. Guess what Stevie b Is back. I just
came back from a nice little time walk first time
in thirty five years, Folks that I've been leading the
charge of our firm and doing radio with you, the
listening audience, for thirty years. So I took a little break.
(00:22):
I've never taken a break. I've been working since I
was eleven years old. Eleven years old, I'm not lying
to you. Why would I lie to you. I've been
working since I was eleven years old, and you know
I have a great firm, as you know, my colleagues,
my leadership team, everybody is just amazing. You know. I
(00:45):
felt it was time. You know, everybody listening knows that
I had a rough year and a half. Let's say
our firm has had a rough year and a half,
and I just thought it was time that I just
wanted to take some time for me. So I went
to Sicily, spent a week in an international golf tournament,
(01:06):
met people from all over the world, thirty couples from Taiwan.
They actually took me under their belt. They thought I
was the greatest thing since sliced bread. I guess made
me sit at their table for our closing dinner, gave
me a flag, told me I'm a fellow Taiwanese. You know.
From there, I went to Rome and I got to
(01:28):
see the Pope and you know, something moving and I'm
not getting religious here, folks. And by the way, let
me give you the phone numbers in case you want
to get in line to talk with me. One eight
hundred talk WGY one eight hundred eighty two five five
nine four nine, one eight hundred eighty two, five fifty
(01:49):
nine forty nine any questions or heck, if you just
want to talk to me, give me a call. One
eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine. So
I went from Sicily to I got to see the Pope.
I was supposed to see Pope Francis back in April,
and as I shared with the listening audience, he passed
away the literally as I touched down in Rome, he
(02:12):
passed away. And you know, it was a memorable, memorable trip.
But this time I got to see Pope Leo being
in you know, in front of him, and I had
a confession. Set folks, I don't think I had a
confession since heck, who knows, I might have been you know,
(02:33):
eight nine, ten years old, I don't know, and it
was pretty moving and I I just it was quite
the day. And then in Rome, I have a friend
high up in the Vatican, Pope Anthony Ligato. For people
in the Capitol region area, you may know him. He's
(02:54):
a pretty hot you know, he's a hot commodity folks
in the Vatican, and you know he's a Troy boy,
So Troy boys stick together. And we had dinner with
Father Anthony, and then I went to Florence for a day,
and then I ended up in Tuscany Sianas and Jiminano
(03:15):
Luca for a Puccini concert, and then Porta Fino and
Saint Trope and Palma de Majorca island saw off of Barcelona,
and then the best part was I finished in Barcelona
and was surprised with a trip on my birthday, which
would have also been Sue's birthday, and it was a
(03:36):
big one for her. She was a cougar long before
anybody knew what being a cougar was. She was a
little bit older than me. I won't tell you, but
you know, we shared the same birthday and it'll always
be an emotional day. October twenty fifth for me for
several reasons. That's how soon I first met fifty years ago.
(03:57):
I guess I kind of let the cat out of
the bag, right, But we knew each other, we were friends,
we worked together, all because of our birthday. We started dating.
We were married for almost forty one years before I
lost her last year. So I had a little surprise
trip arranged for me. Two hours. I swear we were
(04:20):
higher than Mount Everest at this monastery in Monsterrot, Spain,
and it was just moving, spiritually moving. And I'm not
getting religious on you, folks. I'm just saying it was moving,
whether you're religious or not. I said, everybody should visit
this monastery of the Saint Abbe where the Black Madonna is.
(04:44):
You know, there's a beautiful tribute to her. And I
had confessions set again and I was there for quite
some time because I obviously didn't finish everything at the Vatican.
And I got a lot off my chest. And the
one thing that I asked for was help to continue
giving back to people who have less giving, you know,
(05:07):
doing things for people that I feel can use a
little help. That's a mission of mine in life, something
that I'm trying to do more and more, and I
actually asked for blessings to help me do that more
because it means so much to me. So there you
have it, folks. I've been away from you for quite
(05:29):
some time. I haven't forgotten about yet, but and I
hope I remember how to do radio still. Who are
my producers today? I have Ashley Deliah, Katie. Hey, ladies,
say hello to the listening audience. Why not you're all
there together? Well, there we go. I can hear you.
(05:51):
There we go. You know. I like to give my
producers credit, and these ladies, these women truly our dynamite,
and they keep us in line on Saturday and Sunday mornings,
whether it's myself or one of my colleagues who who
loves doing radio as much as I do. So those
(06:12):
those are, you know, I call them the women behind
the curtain like Wizard of Oz. They're they're they're the
oz behind behind the curtains. I hope I remember how
to do radio again. But it's been a long time
and I'm here and now i'd like to talk with you.
It's time to talk. Don't don't leave me hanging one
eight hundred Talk WGY one eight hundred eight two five, five, nine,
(06:38):
four nine. And I hate to come back. You know.
I love it when I come back, Like if I
take a weekend off and I come back and the
markets are up. So I hate coming back when the
markets are down. But listen, I've done this long enough
where it doesn't it doesn't. It doesn't bother me one
second that the markets are down. Heck, we've had quite
(06:59):
the run behind me when you think about it. The
S and P is up fifteen over fifteen percent year
to date with dividends. Nanstack is up nineteen percent, just
about even. The Russell two thousand is up nine percent.
But we gave some back this week, and that's okay.
There's a lot going on in the world politically speaking.
There's a lot that went on this week. You know,
(07:22):
tariffs we got so much. Consumer sentiment is down a
little bit. The confidence of the consumers is down. Can
you blame them? There's a lot to be worried about.
Do I think we're going into a recession? No, I don't,
And even if we do, we'll come out of a recession. Folks.
If you're a good investor, if you're a long term investor,
(07:44):
you can't let these things get to you. And with
this reason about of volatility. You hear me say this often.
And I coach and mentor my investment team, and believe me,
they've done a good job. I have my son Ryan
and Pollo ed Casey, Dave Clark, director of Operations. I
(08:08):
have a pretty good investment committee. But I'm mentoring them
all the time. And there's some things that I say
to them. You know, one, don't let the tear wag
the dog. What do I mean by that? We have
two different portfolios. We have a what we call our
VFG models where we can be a little bit more tactical,
(08:29):
a little bit more active because those are for retirement accounts,
qualified accounts where we don't have to worry about taxes.
Then we have our taxable portfolios, and folks, it's okay
to pay taxes. Isn't it a beautiful thing when you
pay taxes. Wouldn't you rather pay taxes than harvest losses?
(08:50):
So I'm really adamant that we manage money and it's
okay to make changes in the portfolios. It's okay to
take some profits. And with our clients that you know,
it's it's better than harvesting losses, and we can harvest losses.
We actually do harvest losses. We'll be getting into that
(09:11):
season over the next month or so where my trading team,
casing and ed will be doing a dynamite job to
harvest some losses, getting out of something where maybe we're
down a little bit to get into something that we
can hopefully make some money on. And we actually have
for our larger portfolios what we call direct investing, where
(09:34):
we do an amazing job with individual securities harvesting losses.
The net result is amazing. So you know, don't let
the tail wag the dog, and managing the portfolios and
being more active in your retirement accounts make sense having,
you know, because if you have bonds or CDs in
(09:56):
your taxable accounts, you're actually taxed on that income. So
for those of you that are doing it on your own,
having that in the retirement accounts make sense because you're
not taxed until you take money out of those portfolios.
And using alternative assets in place of fixed income makes sense. Listen,
we have some great buffer securities that we invest in
(10:21):
and instead of having let's say, the growth and income
strategy is a sixty forty sixty percent equities, forty percent
alternative assets and bonds, fixed income, CDs, whatever it is
that we're buying. And we love treasuries right now, love
love treasuries right now. So if we have a growth
(10:46):
in income strategy, that forty percent could be made up
of not just bonds, but we blend some alternatives in
there a little bit more, let's say volatility, because we're
not just sitting in bonds, but we're getting better returns
because we have some alternative assets in there. And there's
some great alternative assets out there that we use. For
(11:11):
those of you that are into you know, crypto, listen,
bitcoin recently slumped before you knew it, you know, I
remember talking about bitcoin when it was eighty five thousand
back in the spring, early summer. It shot up to
one hundred and twenty thousand, came down to one hundred
(11:31):
and eight thousand. I thought that was a nice buying opportunity.
And here we are at one hundred and one thousand.
It's a better buying opportunity. I think crypto's here to stay,
the same way I feel alternative assets. I'm sorry, artificial
intelligence is here to stay. And I do believe they're
both here to stay, and there's some volatility that comes
(11:54):
with both. But why why is bitcoin and crypto down?
You know, we got signals from the at A Reserve
that rate cuts may not be near, or that monetary
policy may stay tight. That raises the opportunity cost of
risk assets. You have large institutional outflows from spot bitcoin,
(12:14):
ETFs and broader crypto type investments. You have liquidation cascades
in the crypto markets, leverage traders getting squeezed after the drop.
Why does this matter? Well, while bitcoin and crypto are
a smaller part of many portfolios and they should be, folks,
you should not be loading up on these type investments.
(12:37):
We don't have them in our portfolios just yet. But
I'm asking my investment committee to look into it because
I think they're here to stay, and I think that
because they're here to stay, they're going to be around
long term and if we have an opportunity to buy
with it going through, Basically you can almost say bitcoins
(12:59):
in bear market because it's down just about twenty percent.
Actually was down under one hundred thousand this week, so
it was in a bear market. It did hit bear
market territory when a asse a class is down twenty percent.
Big Cooin was down twenty percent. So if you have
it in your portfolio, if we add it to our portfolios,
(13:20):
it'll only be a four or five percent position in
our equity sleep And you know, as they said, we'll
have some volatility with it. But I think because it's
here to stay, there's nothing to be afraid of it,
especially if you can buy in now. It's better to
buy in at one hundred and one thousand than one
hundred and twenty thousand. And some analysts view this current
(13:41):
drop is maybe a mid cycle correction rather than you know,
it's not. I don't think. I don't think cryptos. You know,
it's like Harmony says, every time there's a market correction,
investors think the world's coming to an end. Guess what, folks,
We get up every morning, the sun comes out, sometimes
it's rained. Pretty soon it'll be snowing. The world's not
(14:02):
coming to an end. It just feels it because you
lost a little bit of money on paper. If you
don't sell those investments, you really haven't lost any money.
But if you sell because you're scared or you're listening
to your brother in law, especially with Thanksgiving and the
holidays coming up, Homica on Christmas and so forth. If
you're listening to your brother in law at the holiday
(14:24):
dinner table, believe me, do not be making investment decisions
because somebody in the family is giving you investment advice.
Volatility comes with investing. I say it more times than
non peak the trough high to low. The swing in
the stock market average swing over the last forty four
(14:44):
years is fourteen point eight percent. So it comes with
the territory of investing. And crypto is no different. So
if you have it in your portfolio, keep it to
four or five percent. I own it in my play accounts. Folks,
you can ask me any question you want. I won't
hold anything back. I'm a pretty you know, I wear
(15:07):
my emotions on my sleeve, and I'm a you know
I'll share with you anything. So I own some bitcoin
in my one of my sandbox accounts. I have like
six sandbox accounts because I like to play, don't we
all like to play in the sand. You remember being
a kid playing in the sand. There's nothing wrong with that.
So when you play, that's what we call our sandbox accounts.
(15:31):
And I do have one sandbox account that is just bitcoin.
I have a couple other sandbox accounts. Actually, you're going
to be talking with John and Ed tomorrow. They will
be doing tomorrow's show, and Ed is one of our
esteam traders studying for his CFA designation. He passed level one,
(15:53):
and believe me, this is one of the hardest exams,
even harder than geography or geometry in your second year
of high school. Level one, two and three of the
CFA is really difficult to get. At his past level
one on his way to level two in one of
(16:13):
my rock stars. So he and John will be on
tomorrow doing this show. Any questions you have on investments,
bullieve me. Playing on calling in at is pretty studious.
I love having him on the investment committee because of
his insight. But as I said, if you own it,
you know, be careful how you own it, be careful
(16:35):
you don't own too much. You know. I like it
at one hundred and one thousand, but I also liked
it at one hundred and eight thousand, and if I
go back four or five months ago, I liked it
at eighty five thousand. So there you have it. But
as there's developments with raids, inflation, regulatory risk, especially with
(16:56):
the crypto world. It'll influence the look. There you have it,
my take on crypto and for our clients. You may
see it in the portfolio, you may not. We're going
to talk about it. One eight hundred talk WGY one
eight hundred eight to five four nine. My producers. Let
(17:17):
me take a quick fifteen second break, folks, you can count,
Go ahead, start counting now. Hello, folks, Thank you. That
was actually forty five seconds, not fifteen seconds. Because we're
promoting this this amazing seminar that that we're having. You know,
as the spots set go to our website Bouchet dot
(17:43):
com and Ryan Bouchet and Jim Lebrew are doing planning
with Purpose seminar. It's going to be at the Hotel
Brookmere in Saratoga was the formerly Longfellows and for those
of you that remember the good old day, it was
Canterbury way back when just past Saratoga. National Law effects
(18:05):
at fourteen easy to get to this Wednesday at five
point thirty, and it's going to be pretty good. You're
going to get a lot of insight and guidance from
Ryan who acts as as he's on our investment committee
and Jim Lebrew, an attorney at rl GC Law. You
(18:26):
know some great attorneys there. Jim is the managing partner
Rick Rowlands, who I've known since nineteen ninety, and now
they have Marty Finn, who I've also known since nineteen ninety.
Jim has really a good stable of attorneys and it's free, folks.
You know this, this seminar is designed for those of
(18:48):
you with a million dollars more in investable assets. It's
going to be pretty pretty pretty dynamite stuff. It'll explore
just how thoughtful financial and estate planning can help you
move beyond short term fixes. And it's really you know,
between Ryan and Jim, you're going to get a lot
(19:08):
out of this conference. So to be Wednesday this Wednesday,
November twelfth, five point thirty at Hotel brook Mare, that's
the brand spank and new hotel that Sunny Binancio just
built in Saratoga, as they said, it's formerly the Longfellows
and it's just past Saratoga exit off Exit fourteen and
(19:30):
you can register right on our website Bouche dot com.
You'll see right up next to our logo a little
golden box because this is going to be a golden
seminar one eight hundred eight two five five nine four
nine one eight hundred eighty five fifty nine forty nine.
If you have any questions, give me a call, folks,
(19:53):
I would love to talk to you, spend quite some time.
So what happened this past week? Well, let's start from
the beginning, that would be Monday. You know, we have
oil prices rising as OPEC pause plans for increasing output. Yeah,
the government shut down here we are continues and continues
and continues and continues, and it's a terrible thing. A
(20:16):
lot of people going without paychecks, the food benefits and
other things. Why can't these two sides of the aisle
come together. Don't blame it on one or the other,
Blame it on both, folks. The best thing that our
elected officials can do is come to terms and negotiate
for the best of the people. Why are people in
(20:41):
office and Congress getting their paychecks when some of our military,
some of our air traffic controllers, we're seeing that mess
right now in the skies and how many flights are
being canceled and we're coming up on Thanksgiving holiday season
where it's a pretty busy time. And once again, who
(21:02):
gets screwed us? We the consumers, the people of this
great country of ours. We take it on the chin
when our politicians can't come to a compromise. And I
don't care if you think it's one side or the other,
it's both sides. Both sides need to come together and
figure a way to let's be done with this government shutdown.
(21:25):
I mean, it's it's enough. It's enough. How many times
are we going to have shutdowns? It's it's it's it's
a terrible thing. So you know, that's that's what we're
living with this week, and it continues on now that
the elections are behind us. I made the point that
(21:47):
you know, Schumer played a good game at chess, and
I think he probably won by scaring the people. Blaming
the Republicans about the government shutdown. A lot of Democrats
one across the country, and I think that's because a
lot of voters, you know, they're sick and tired of
what's going on. And believe me, shutdowns, government shutdowns are
(22:14):
not new government shutdowns. Listen, government shutdowns have been going
on forever and ever and ever. About twenty one shutdowns
in history. Ten shutdowns and funding gaps since nineteen seventy six,
four shutdowns lasted more than a business day. This month's
(22:39):
were into our second second month, and it's just a
terrible thing. But as I said, I blame it on
both sides of the aisle, not just one side of
the aisle. And there's a lot of upset people out there.
The American people are sick and tired of it. You know,
why are we letting our government shut down? And people
go with that. Oh so, hopefully both sides of the
(23:02):
aisle can find a way of compromising, negotiating. There's give
and take. That's what politicians need to do. Have give
and tape. Folks, you are listening to Let's Talk Money,
brought to you by Bouchet Financial Group, where we help
our clients prioritize their health while we manage their wealth
for life. We're coming up to the end of the show.
(23:22):
We're going to take a quick break for the news.
I'll be here on the other side. Fond minds are
open one eight hundred eight two, five, five, nine four nine.
Today it's me Stephen Bouchet. I'm here with you, folks.
Thanks for hanging in through the news, and thank you
for tuning in today. Thank you for listening to me
talk about my little sabbatical trip and all that I
(23:45):
did and how I feel. And believe me, folks, it's
been a long year and a half. Mentally, I can
say I'm sitting here feeling as cleansed and as good
as ever because of that trip and the experiences that
I had. And you know, you may not know this,
but I've you know, I think I'm probably physically as
(24:07):
good as I've ever been. I you know, the medical
treatments I went through a year and a half ago,
and losing you know, Sue unexpectedly in the middle of it,
and you know, this past January, losing one of our colleagues, Nicole.
It's been a long year and a half and I've
been working with the exercise trainer and a couple of
(24:30):
days a week. I'm actually going to hot yoga. Don't
laugh if you haven't tried it. It's pretty good. I
want to be able to touch my toes, and hot yoga's
been been pretty good. So I'm feeling pretty good. I'm
feeling as good as I've ever felt mentally and physically.
I'm ready to take on the world. And I'm ready
to take your calls. One eight hundred talk WGY one
(24:55):
eight hundred, eight two five five nine four nine one
eight hundred here at eight two five fifty nine forty nine.
So I started talking about the week starting out on Monday.
Oil prices up, government shutdown continues. You got us manufacturing
shrank for the eighth straight month. Stocks, you know, looking
(25:18):
at artificial intelligence worries and you know they you know,
shares a planetere and in the video we're down pretty
good this week. I kind of like that. I actually
I'm it's wetting my appetite. That's the other area that
I'm looking to have my investment committee invest in his
artificial intelligence. There's some really good ETFs out there that
(25:42):
have a basket of AI companies, and once again, folks,
just like bitcoin and crypto, it's here to stay. I
really think if you're not using artificial intelligence, well don't
miss out. It's not too late. We're still in the
infamousy stages. Start to learn how to use it and
(26:02):
find out for yourself why it's so dynamic. There was
a great article in Today's Barons. You know, I get
my newspapers at Stuarts because I love Stuarts. You know,
every employee of Stuarts is like a partner and their aesops,
so they're all kind of part owners and they take
pride in that. And hey, if you need a job,
(26:24):
Stuart's is paying some pretty good dollars over twenty dollars
an hour, you know, and they treat you right. Gary
Dak and his dad and everybody at Stewart's, they treat
you right. But I get my papers at Stuarts and
Barons Today, which is a good weekly newspaper, had a
(26:44):
great article out there and the title of it is
use AI or You're fired. And I was intrigued by
that title because I literally I came back from my
sabbatical and I had to sit down with each in
every one of my colleagues, face to face, one on one,
(27:04):
just to catch up with them. And the one thing
that we spent a lot of time talking about is
artificial intelligence and why I believe it can you know,
really help us. And it's funny. I just literally I
sent to my leadership team this article because I told them,
I said, I don't want one person in our firm
(27:28):
to think that AI will ever replace third job. Actually,
just the opposite. I look at AI as a tool
to better serve our clients, to help our colleagues be
able to work more efficiently, more productively, be able to
get more done. You know, there's examples in this article,
(27:50):
things that tasks that would take thirty minutes now take
five minutes because of AI. So no, AI will never ever,
ever replace anybody in my firm, not as long as
I'm alive and kicking. I can assure my colleagues that,
and I plan on doing that on Monday after reading
this article, because in the back of my head, I said, geez,
(28:12):
do people worry about that? I don't think so in
my firm because everybody knows how valuable they are. I'm
the kind of leader that the longer somebody's with me,
the more valuable they are to me. And you know,
I want them to be successful. And last week when
I was home, I took all my colleagues. I took
(28:34):
our service team out to launching. Then I took my advisors,
traders and operations to dinner. Went to a place I've
never been. And I love the guy. I've been to
his house many times, Augie's in Boston Spot And what
a cool little place. My mouth still waters for Augie's cooking,
and he wants me to come in some afternoon and
(28:56):
show me how to make a dish or too, And
I may just take them up on that, but I
try to get together with my team, my colleagues is
as best I can. Next week, I'm going to take
them all to the fans Hills and Troy. The fans
Hills has probably the best pizza around and they open
up a cool little restaurant. So we're gonna We're gonna
(29:18):
go down to Troy and get all my colleagues together.
But as I read this article, I don't want anybody
on my team to ever think that AI could ever
replace them, just the opposite. I want AI, you know,
I want AI to help them and I want AI
to really really be a tool that helps them. So
(29:40):
there you have it. That was in this morning's Parents
one eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine
one eight hundred eighty two, five fifty nine forty nine.
So you had, you know, the two biggies, Polanter Technologies
and Navidia down despite record revenue. You have you know,
(30:02):
as I said, Democrat sweat state and local elections. You
had the Supreme Court appeared skeptical of President Trump's tariffs.
We'll see what happens there. Once again, you heard me
say it in the spring. Was I afraid of tariffs? No,
that I think tariffs could maybe give us a hiccup
or a bump in the road. Yes, But am I
(30:23):
afraid of tariffs? Absolutely not. We'll get through all this
this this stuck with tariffs, and I'm not afraid of it.
And maybe maybe the Supreme Court will, we'll knock it down,
that's all right. President Trump will get maybe not back
at step or two, but he'll get back into it.
(30:45):
And I do believe, and I'm not a Republican, I
do believe he has the country's best interest at heart.
You know, listen, he's He's brought peace to some places
around the world that needed to have peace brought to it.
And he's not done there. You know, the tariffs. At
the end of the day, hopefully more goods will be
produced in this great country of ours, and the countries
(31:09):
that have been milking us for a long time pay
their fair share, and hopefully that brings us more revenue,
which means less taxes. Right, So for the week, you know,
the the all the major in deexes fell, all the
major indexes fell, so you had the SMP down one
point one percent, especially after after you know, you had
(31:33):
Challenge Urn Gray came out and Christmas estimates that there's
over a million one point one million layoffs that that
are going to happen, and that's in line with what
happened with the two thousand and eight two thousand and
nine recession. So, you know, and another reason why consumer
(31:55):
confidence is down. The headline right now is consumer confidence.
It's been sliding the the you know, short term expectations
dropped to sixty five point two earlier this year, which
is historically very low. And why does it matter consumer sentiment? Listen, folks, listen.
(32:16):
It leads to consumer behavior, spending, big ticket items, risk taking.
Consumer spending is the largest part of the us GDP
gross domestic product. It makes up almost two thirds to
seventy percent of it. So the consumer is an important
Listen spoken the wheel, the consumers. What it's all about?
(32:40):
So right now obviously, and some of it man that
maybe all of it or a lot of it is inflation.
Higher prices reduce real purchasing power. Households feel squeezed. They're
paying more in the grocery stores, they're paying more at
the gas pump. Even though those things coming down, they're
(33:01):
still paying more than they were for a while. So
that's taking real money out of their pocket. You got,
you know, wage and earnings expectations that consumers expect and
comes to maybe come to a pause or the job
markets weaken. You know that that takes away from optimism
(33:23):
the consumer. You can't blame the consumer for you know,
maybe being down, having not such a rosy picture of
the future. And you got listen, policy uncertainty, trade, tariffs,
regulatory uncertainty, macro risk. You know, we're all dealing with it, folks,
(33:43):
We are all dealing with it. And this was a
big week in politics. This was a huge week in politics,
and you know it lets some people scratching their heads.
But listen, don't let it bother you. We'll get through it.
It's not the first time that we've had elections that
maybe surprise some people for the good or the bad.
(34:05):
Elections come and go, politicians come and go. Well, I
shouldn't say that a lot of politicians are around the stay.
Let's hope and I will make a political statement. I
am all in favor of term limits. And there may
be some of my friends who are politicians who are
(34:26):
listening and they may not like for me to say that.
And I'm sorry, guys and gals, but I'm all in
favor of term limits. Come in, do a great job,
serve as a public servant, and then get out, go
get a real job. Let somebody else come in, fresh blood,
fresh ideas, somebody who's not beholden. The worst thing that
(34:49):
I hate to see is how can a public servant
supposedly making nominal pay become millionaires? Multi millionaires? How can
that happen? Well, I'm not going to go there, but
I am in favor of term limits, so that, I
guess is a political statement for me. I'm all in
favor of term limits. You got you know, you know,
(35:14):
for for investors. You know, if we have weaker earnings
from from consumer companies like retailers, discretionary segments, that's going
to affect the consumer. You know, there's there's just so
much so you can't blame the consumer. Uh you know,
basically their confidence is diminishing, and you know they got
(35:37):
reduced spending, slower growth, further confidence decline you know, this
is all, this is all part of what we're living
through now, and it's you know, this week, we we
we we we saw and the markets were down this week.
As they said, look at market corrections as opportunities, folks,
(35:58):
don't be scared about it. If you have a good portfolio,
rock solid portfolio of portfolio that is made up of
good investments, do not do not think with your heart.
Always think with your brain. Always look at information and
make rational decisions that are logical when it comes to investing,
(36:21):
And don't sell out because just like that, the markets
can turn around. If you think they're down for this
or that, just like that, they can turn around, and
you don't want to miss that turnaround. Remember back in
earlier this year, you know, the S and P was
down just about twenty percent, that's bear market. Small caps
(36:44):
NASDAK was down over twenty percent percent, they were in
bear markets. In hindsight, how many of you raise your hands?
How many of you said, oh man, why didn't I buy?
Steve tells us all time to take advantage of volatility.
I'm a long term investor. I don't care what happens
(37:07):
for a day, a week, a month, sometimes even a year.
It shouldn't bother you. If you're a long term investor,
do not do not, do not let these crazyness in
the markets. Do not let the bad newspaars scare you
(37:27):
out of the markets. If you have a good portfolio,
use volatility to your advantage. If anything, use volatility to
take advantage of some areas that may have been too expensive.
Get into some areas that you always wanted to get into.
But do not get out of the markets completely. I
don't know of a market timer yet that has made
(37:51):
so much money. I remember when I first got in
the business. So I've been in business thirty five years,
but I got in business nineteen eighty six, and it
was with a little broker dealer out of out of
just outside of Philadelphia. I forget the name of the town.
It'll come to me and maybe two in the morning,
I'll put it on Twitter, but it'll come to me.
(38:14):
And this, you know, they believed in this market timer.
And I remember because they made money, Folks, they made
money and having going to sell these market timing services.
And I think back, and it's like this guy, sure
he might have gotten lucky here or there, but very
(38:34):
seldom do they get lucky on the sell, sell, sell,
and then bye bye bye. Very seldom do they sell, sell,
sell at the high and by bye bye at the low.
Market timers, listen, there's no such thing as a market timer.
Who is on the S and P Fortune or not
(38:55):
the SMP fortune, but the fortune richest people list. There's
not a market timer. I know, you got a guy
like Warren Buffets on there. He doesn't market time. He
buys something and he holds it. And I love Berkshire Hathaway.
It's like a mutual fund, folks, because it's a focused fund.
They have a lot of good companies in there, well diversified.
(39:18):
It's a holding company. Berkshire Hathaway is not a stock.
I'm trying to teach my investment folks that it's not
a stock. It's a holding company. It's no different than
buying your favorite mutual fund or an ETF that has
a basket of stocks. And if that's what Berkshire Hathaway is.
And they have a lot of cash. Actually for a
while they had more cash than some countries had around
(39:41):
the world. So you know, Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett is
not a market timer. He's made some pretty darn good
money through time, some really good money through time. So
you know, if you think that you can market time,
(40:02):
or your brother in law Thanksgiving table dinner can market time, folks,
they can't. They can't. They can't, they can't. And when
you think the SMP over the last five years is
up ninety two percent, a guy like Warren Buffett's ninety
four still goes to work every day. He was up
(40:22):
one hundred and thirty five percent over the last five years.
QQQ was up one hundred percent compared to the SMP
of ninety two percent. Apple up one hundred and thirty percent.
I like saying that because it's our number one holding
over the last five years. Amazon not as much, and
(40:43):
that's our second largest holding, up only forty eight percent
over the last five years. But these are good, good holdings,
and I'm not afraid of long term holdings. I actually
like being invested for the right reason. And it's okay
to make decisions. Sometimes you make decisions we you know,
(41:05):
sometimes I tell clients so often sometimes we'll get into
something and maybe we get out of it soon after
for whatever the reason is. We don't have a crystal ball, folks,
and you know, nobody should think that that that anybody
does have a crystal ball. We don't. This is this
is why our core holdings being the broad market and
(41:28):
QQQ believer in or not, it's one of our core
holdings and they're continually up pretty pretty good, you know,
our core holdings. And I know, I get, I know,
I give these statistics out often, but it's just to
(41:51):
kind of reinforce you to to realize that over time investments,
I don't care what the asset classes, stocks, bonds, commodities
like gold, I don't care what it is. Up, they're
up and down, up and down, up and down. I
go back over the last ten years, there were two
(42:12):
years out of the last ten years where the market
was down. Two out of ten years, eighty percent of
the time the markets are down. And you know, you
look at this year, so really even even more than
eighty percent, because right now the markets look to be
closing up for this year twenty twenty five. But the
(42:34):
fifteen year average of the broad stock market, the S
and P year in year out, with all the craziness,
with all the headlines, fourteen percent a year, year in
year out. There you have it, year in year out
fourteen percent a year. And if you go back NASDAK
over the last you know, ten years eleven including this year,
(42:58):
down two years, and it's one of the years. Twenty
and eighteen it was down point one two percent, point
one two percent. Twenty twenty two it was down thirty
two percent, So that was a hard year. Our portfolios
lagged a little bit because twenty twenty two, if you
look at the SMP twenty twenty two, down eighteen percent,
(43:22):
whereas Nasdaq was down thirty two percent. So that kind
of drag and our clients know that, you know, because
we believe in QQQ will have a year like twenty
twenty two where the market's down thirty two percent. Uh,
the QQQ market is down thirty two percent, the SMP
is only down in twenty twenty two eighteen percent. And
(43:46):
then twenty eighteen, folks, hold on to the seat of
your pants, the broad stock market was down four point
five percent. That was one of the two years over
the last eleven that the markets are down, including this year,
and NASDAK in twenty eighteen was only down point one
two percent. So there you have it.
Speaker 2 (44:06):
It all averages out, but guess what are you ready
for this. Your average return in QQQ over the last
fifteen years, year in, year out, that's what average means,
nine almost nineteen percent, eighteen point sixty six to be exact,
eighteen point six six percent year in, year out. And
(44:26):
then for you nervous and all least, guess what the
bond index, as measured by the ICE Shares Core US
Aggregate bond ETF down as well two out of eleven years,
including this year, So bonds don't always go up either.
They were down in twenty twenty one, down one point
seven almost one point eight percent, and then the year
(44:50):
after twenty twenty two, down thirteen percent. You bought bonds
because you wanted safety, down thirteen percent twenty twenty two,
almost down as as much as the sm P. But
here you go. So you have the S and P
fifteen year average, if you were invested fourteen almost fifteen percent,
You had QQQ your fifteen year average almost nineteen percent.
(45:13):
And the bonds because people put bonds in their portfolio,
not because they're safe.
Speaker 1 (45:20):
Because I just gave the statistic, bonds were also down
two years out of the last eleven, including this year.
This year, bounds are up almost seven percent compared to
the S and P being up fifteen percent. So bonds
are having a pretty good year this year, which is
why at the beginning of the show I said, I
actually like bonds. The bonds are having a pretty good
(45:43):
year this year. But over the last fifteen years, sm
P up fourteen to fifteen percent, QQQ up almost nineteen percent,
bonds up two point two percent two point two percent.
So it does soften the volatility, but doesn't prevent risks.
So when you put together your portfolio, ask yourself, are
(46:04):
you a long term investor or short term investor? Are
you okay with some volatility, some ups and down, some
bumps in the road knowing not. Over the last forty
four years, the average average swing in the markets high
to low, peak to trough is fourteen percent. Can you
weather that? Yes? Absolutely you can weather even now with
(46:26):
the markets being down this week. Don't be afraid, don't
don't don't spread over it. Look at it as an
opportunity to get into some areas that you always wanted
to get into. It's a beautiful thing. Let me remind
you just one more time, folks about this seminar, because
I'm so excited about it. You know, we're doing these
(46:46):
more and more, this one this Wednesday, Ryan, and we're
partnering up with the rl GC Law Group, which the
managing partners Jim Lebrue, a great guy. I've been referring
clients to Rick Rowlands and Jim for years and now
they got Marty Finn there and they got some other
(47:08):
dynamic attorneys. And this Wednesday night, November twelfth, five thirty
at the Brookmere Hotel or I should say Hotel Brookmere
in Saratoga Exit fourteen, folks, go just past Saratoga National
and guess what right on your right you'll see the
old longfellows And as I joke for those of you
(47:31):
that used to go out and about in the whole
days the Canterbury Now it's called Hotel brook Mare. This Friday,
five thirty go to our website Booshay dot com, beaz
In' boy ouch e y dot com and you'll be
able to register five thirty. It's going to be dynamite, folks.
We're coming up to the end of the show. You
(47:52):
are listening to Let's Talk Money, brought to you by
Boo Schaef and Andswergar, where we help our clients prioritize
their health while we manage their wealth for life. If
you want to come in for a pro bono that
would be free initial consultation. Call our office or go
to our website to get more information. Thanks for tuning
(48:13):
in today. Come back tomorrow morning eight am. John and
Ed have a great day, folks.
Hello, everybody. Guess what Stevie b Is back. I just
came back from a nice little time walk first time
in thirty five years, Folks that I've been leading the
charge of our firm and doing radio with you, the
listening audience, for thirty years. So I took a little break.
(00:22):
I've never taken a break. I've been working since I
was eleven years old. Eleven years old, I'm not lying
to you. Why would I lie to you. I've been
working since I was eleven years old, and you know
I have a great firm, as you know, my colleagues,
my leadership team, everybody is just amazing. You know. I
(00:45):
felt it was time. You know, everybody listening knows that
I had a rough year and a half. Let's say
our firm has had a rough year and a half,
and I just thought it was time that I just
wanted to take some time for me. So I went
to Sicily, spent a week in an international golf tournament,
(01:06):
met people from all over the world, thirty couples from Taiwan.
They actually took me under their belt. They thought I
was the greatest thing since sliced bread. I guess made
me sit at their table for our closing dinner, gave
me a flag, told me I'm a fellow Taiwanese. You know.
From there, I went to Rome and I got to
(01:28):
see the Pope and you know, something moving and I'm
not getting religious here, folks. And by the way, let
me give you the phone numbers in case you want
to get in line to talk with me. One eight
hundred talk WGY one eight hundred eighty two five five
nine four nine, one eight hundred eighty two, five fifty
(01:49):
nine forty nine any questions or heck, if you just
want to talk to me, give me a call. One
eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine. So
I went from Sicily to I got to see the Pope.
I was supposed to see Pope Francis back in April,
and as I shared with the listening audience, he passed
away the literally as I touched down in Rome, he
(02:12):
passed away. And you know, it was a memorable, memorable trip.
But this time I got to see Pope Leo being
in you know, in front of him, and I had
a confession. Set folks, I don't think I had a
confession since heck, who knows, I might have been you know,
(02:33):
eight nine, ten years old, I don't know, and it
was pretty moving and I I just it was quite
the day. And then in Rome, I have a friend
high up in the Vatican, Pope Anthony Ligato. For people
in the Capitol region area, you may know him. He's
(02:54):
a pretty hot you know, he's a hot commodity folks
in the Vatican, and you know he's a Troy boy,
So Troy boys stick together. And we had dinner with
Father Anthony, and then I went to Florence for a day,
and then I ended up in Tuscany Sianas and Jiminano
(03:15):
Luca for a Puccini concert, and then Porta Fino and
Saint Trope and Palma de Majorca island saw off of Barcelona,
and then the best part was I finished in Barcelona
and was surprised with a trip on my birthday, which
would have also been Sue's birthday, and it was a
(03:36):
big one for her. She was a cougar long before
anybody knew what being a cougar was. She was a
little bit older than me. I won't tell you, but
you know, we shared the same birthday and it'll always
be an emotional day. October twenty fifth for me for
several reasons. That's how soon I first met fifty years ago.
(03:57):
I guess I kind of let the cat out of
the bag, right, But we knew each other, we were friends,
we worked together, all because of our birthday. We started dating.
We were married for almost forty one years before I
lost her last year. So I had a little surprise
trip arranged for me. Two hours. I swear we were
(04:20):
higher than Mount Everest at this monastery in Monsterrot, Spain,
and it was just moving, spiritually moving. And I'm not
getting religious on you, folks. I'm just saying it was moving,
whether you're religious or not. I said, everybody should visit
this monastery of the Saint Abbe where the Black Madonna is.
(04:44):
You know, there's a beautiful tribute to her. And I
had confessions set again and I was there for quite
some time because I obviously didn't finish everything at the Vatican.
And I got a lot off my chest. And the
one thing that I asked for was help to continue
giving back to people who have less giving, you know,
(05:07):
doing things for people that I feel can use a
little help. That's a mission of mine in life, something
that I'm trying to do more and more, and I
actually asked for blessings to help me do that more
because it means so much to me. So there you
have it, folks. I've been away from you for quite
(05:29):
some time. I haven't forgotten about yet, but and I
hope I remember how to do radio still. Who are
my producers today? I have Ashley Deliah, Katie. Hey, ladies,
say hello to the listening audience. Why not you're all
there together? Well, there we go. I can hear you.
(05:51):
There we go. You know. I like to give my
producers credit, and these ladies, these women truly our dynamite,
and they keep us in line on Saturday and Sunday mornings,
whether it's myself or one of my colleagues who who
loves doing radio as much as I do. So those
(06:12):
those are, you know, I call them the women behind
the curtain like Wizard of Oz. They're they're they're the
oz behind behind the curtains. I hope I remember how
to do radio again. But it's been a long time
and I'm here and now i'd like to talk with you.
It's time to talk. Don't don't leave me hanging one
eight hundred Talk WGY one eight hundred eight two five, five, nine,
(06:38):
four nine. And I hate to come back. You know.
I love it when I come back, Like if I
take a weekend off and I come back and the
markets are up. So I hate coming back when the
markets are down. But listen, I've done this long enough
where it doesn't it doesn't. It doesn't bother me one
second that the markets are down. Heck, we've had quite
(06:59):
the run behind me when you think about it. The
S and P is up fifteen over fifteen percent year
to date with dividends. Nanstack is up nineteen percent, just
about even. The Russell two thousand is up nine percent.
But we gave some back this week, and that's okay.
There's a lot going on in the world politically speaking.
There's a lot that went on this week. You know,
(07:22):
tariffs we got so much. Consumer sentiment is down a
little bit. The confidence of the consumers is down. Can
you blame them? There's a lot to be worried about.
Do I think we're going into a recession? No, I don't,
And even if we do, we'll come out of a recession. Folks.
If you're a good investor, if you're a long term investor,
(07:44):
you can't let these things get to you. And with
this reason about of volatility. You hear me say this often.
And I coach and mentor my investment team, and believe me,
they've done a good job. I have my son Ryan
and Pollo ed Casey, Dave Clark, director of Operations. I
(08:08):
have a pretty good investment committee. But I'm mentoring them
all the time. And there's some things that I say
to them. You know, one, don't let the tear wag
the dog. What do I mean by that? We have
two different portfolios. We have a what we call our
VFG models where we can be a little bit more tactical,
(08:29):
a little bit more active because those are for retirement accounts,
qualified accounts where we don't have to worry about taxes.
Then we have our taxable portfolios, and folks, it's okay
to pay taxes. Isn't it a beautiful thing when you
pay taxes. Wouldn't you rather pay taxes than harvest losses?
(08:50):
So I'm really adamant that we manage money and it's
okay to make changes in the portfolios. It's okay to
take some profits. And with our clients that you know,
it's it's better than harvesting losses, and we can harvest losses.
We actually do harvest losses. We'll be getting into that
(09:11):
season over the next month or so where my trading team,
casing and ed will be doing a dynamite job to
harvest some losses, getting out of something where maybe we're
down a little bit to get into something that we
can hopefully make some money on. And we actually have
for our larger portfolios what we call direct investing, where
(09:34):
we do an amazing job with individual securities harvesting losses.
The net result is amazing. So you know, don't let
the tail wag the dog, and managing the portfolios and
being more active in your retirement accounts make sense having,
you know, because if you have bonds or CDs in
(09:56):
your taxable accounts, you're actually taxed on that income. So
for those of you that are doing it on your own,
having that in the retirement accounts make sense because you're
not taxed until you take money out of those portfolios.
And using alternative assets in place of fixed income makes sense. Listen,
we have some great buffer securities that we invest in
(10:21):
and instead of having let's say, the growth and income
strategy is a sixty forty sixty percent equities, forty percent
alternative assets and bonds, fixed income, CDs, whatever it is
that we're buying. And we love treasuries right now, love
love treasuries right now. So if we have a growth
(10:46):
in income strategy, that forty percent could be made up
of not just bonds, but we blend some alternatives in
there a little bit more, let's say volatility, because we're
not just sitting in bonds, but we're getting better returns
because we have some alternative assets in there. And there's
some great alternative assets out there that we use. For
(11:11):
those of you that are into you know, crypto, listen,
bitcoin recently slumped before you knew it, you know, I
remember talking about bitcoin when it was eighty five thousand
back in the spring, early summer. It shot up to
one hundred and twenty thousand, came down to one hundred
(11:31):
and eight thousand. I thought that was a nice buying opportunity.
And here we are at one hundred and one thousand.
It's a better buying opportunity. I think crypto's here to stay,
the same way I feel alternative assets. I'm sorry, artificial
intelligence is here to stay. And I do believe they're
both here to stay, and there's some volatility that comes
(11:54):
with both. But why why is bitcoin and crypto down?
You know, we got signals from the at A Reserve
that rate cuts may not be near, or that monetary
policy may stay tight. That raises the opportunity cost of
risk assets. You have large institutional outflows from spot bitcoin,
(12:14):
ETFs and broader crypto type investments. You have liquidation cascades
in the crypto markets, leverage traders getting squeezed after the drop.
Why does this matter? Well, while bitcoin and crypto are
a smaller part of many portfolios and they should be, folks,
you should not be loading up on these type investments.
(12:37):
We don't have them in our portfolios just yet. But
I'm asking my investment committee to look into it because
I think they're here to stay, and I think that
because they're here to stay, they're going to be around
long term and if we have an opportunity to buy
with it going through, Basically you can almost say bitcoins
(12:59):
in bear market because it's down just about twenty percent.
Actually was down under one hundred thousand this week, so
it was in a bear market. It did hit bear
market territory when a asse a class is down twenty percent.
Big Cooin was down twenty percent. So if you have
it in your portfolio, if we add it to our portfolios,
(13:20):
it'll only be a four or five percent position in
our equity sleep And you know, as they said, we'll
have some volatility with it. But I think because it's
here to stay, there's nothing to be afraid of it,
especially if you can buy in now. It's better to
buy in at one hundred and one thousand than one
hundred and twenty thousand. And some analysts view this current
(13:41):
drop is maybe a mid cycle correction rather than you know,
it's not. I don't think. I don't think cryptos. You know,
it's like Harmony says, every time there's a market correction,
investors think the world's coming to an end. Guess what, folks,
We get up every morning, the sun comes out, sometimes
it's rained. Pretty soon it'll be snowing. The world's not
(14:02):
coming to an end. It just feels it because you
lost a little bit of money on paper. If you
don't sell those investments, you really haven't lost any money.
But if you sell because you're scared or you're listening
to your brother in law, especially with Thanksgiving and the
holidays coming up, Homica on Christmas and so forth. If
you're listening to your brother in law at the holiday
(14:24):
dinner table, believe me, do not be making investment decisions
because somebody in the family is giving you investment advice.
Volatility comes with investing. I say it more times than
non peak the trough high to low. The swing in
the stock market average swing over the last forty four
(14:44):
years is fourteen point eight percent. So it comes with
the territory of investing. And crypto is no different. So
if you have it in your portfolio, keep it to
four or five percent. I own it in my play accounts. Folks,
you can ask me any question you want. I won't
hold anything back. I'm a pretty you know, I wear
(15:07):
my emotions on my sleeve, and I'm a you know
I'll share with you anything. So I own some bitcoin
in my one of my sandbox accounts. I have like
six sandbox accounts because I like to play, don't we
all like to play in the sand. You remember being
a kid playing in the sand. There's nothing wrong with that.
So when you play, that's what we call our sandbox accounts.
(15:31):
And I do have one sandbox account that is just bitcoin.
I have a couple other sandbox accounts. Actually, you're going
to be talking with John and Ed tomorrow. They will
be doing tomorrow's show, and Ed is one of our
esteam traders studying for his CFA designation. He passed level one,
(15:53):
and believe me, this is one of the hardest exams,
even harder than geography or geometry in your second year
of high school. Level one, two and three of the
CFA is really difficult to get. At his past level
one on his way to level two in one of
(16:13):
my rock stars. So he and John will be on
tomorrow doing this show. Any questions you have on investments,
bullieve me. Playing on calling in at is pretty studious.
I love having him on the investment committee because of
his insight. But as I said, if you own it,
you know, be careful how you own it, be careful
(16:35):
you don't own too much. You know. I like it
at one hundred and one thousand, but I also liked
it at one hundred and eight thousand, and if I
go back four or five months ago, I liked it
at eighty five thousand. So there you have it. But
as there's developments with raids, inflation, regulatory risk, especially with
(16:56):
the crypto world. It'll influence the look. There you have it,
my take on crypto and for our clients. You may
see it in the portfolio, you may not. We're going
to talk about it. One eight hundred talk WGY one
eight hundred eight to five four nine. My producers. Let
(17:17):
me take a quick fifteen second break, folks, you can count,
Go ahead, start counting now. Hello, folks, Thank you. That
was actually forty five seconds, not fifteen seconds. Because we're
promoting this this amazing seminar that that we're having. You know,
as the spots set go to our website Bouchet dot
(17:43):
com and Ryan Bouchet and Jim Lebrew are doing planning
with Purpose seminar. It's going to be at the Hotel
Brookmere in Saratoga was the formerly Longfellows and for those
of you that remember the good old day, it was
Canterbury way back when just past Saratoga. National Law effects
(18:05):
at fourteen easy to get to this Wednesday at five
point thirty, and it's going to be pretty good. You're
going to get a lot of insight and guidance from
Ryan who acts as as he's on our investment committee
and Jim Lebrew, an attorney at rl GC Law. You
(18:26):
know some great attorneys there. Jim is the managing partner
Rick Rowlands, who I've known since nineteen ninety, and now
they have Marty Finn, who I've also known since nineteen ninety.
Jim has really a good stable of attorneys and it's free, folks.
You know this, this seminar is designed for those of
(18:48):
you with a million dollars more in investable assets. It's
going to be pretty pretty pretty dynamite stuff. It'll explore
just how thoughtful financial and estate planning can help you
move beyond short term fixes. And it's really you know,
between Ryan and Jim, you're going to get a lot
(19:08):
out of this conference. So to be Wednesday this Wednesday,
November twelfth, five point thirty at Hotel brook Mare, that's
the brand spank and new hotel that Sunny Binancio just
built in Saratoga, as they said, it's formerly the Longfellows
and it's just past Saratoga exit off Exit fourteen and
(19:30):
you can register right on our website Bouche dot com.
You'll see right up next to our logo a little
golden box because this is going to be a golden
seminar one eight hundred eight two five five nine four
nine one eight hundred eighty five fifty nine forty nine.
If you have any questions, give me a call, folks,
(19:53):
I would love to talk to you, spend quite some time.
So what happened this past week? Well, let's start from
the beginning, that would be Monday. You know, we have
oil prices rising as OPEC pause plans for increasing output. Yeah,
the government shut down here we are continues and continues
and continues and continues, and it's a terrible thing. A
(20:16):
lot of people going without paychecks, the food benefits and
other things. Why can't these two sides of the aisle
come together. Don't blame it on one or the other,
Blame it on both, folks. The best thing that our
elected officials can do is come to terms and negotiate
for the best of the people. Why are people in
(20:41):
office and Congress getting their paychecks when some of our military,
some of our air traffic controllers, we're seeing that mess
right now in the skies and how many flights are
being canceled and we're coming up on Thanksgiving holiday season
where it's a pretty busy time. And once again, who
(21:02):
gets screwed us? We the consumers, the people of this
great country of ours. We take it on the chin
when our politicians can't come to a compromise. And I
don't care if you think it's one side or the other,
it's both sides. Both sides need to come together and
figure a way to let's be done with this government shutdown.
(21:25):
I mean, it's it's enough. It's enough. How many times
are we going to have shutdowns? It's it's it's it's
a terrible thing. So you know, that's that's what we're
living with this week, and it continues on now that
the elections are behind us. I made the point that
(21:47):
you know, Schumer played a good game at chess, and
I think he probably won by scaring the people. Blaming
the Republicans about the government shutdown. A lot of Democrats
one across the country, and I think that's because a
lot of voters, you know, they're sick and tired of
what's going on. And believe me, shutdowns, government shutdowns are
(22:14):
not new government shutdowns. Listen, government shutdowns have been going
on forever and ever and ever. About twenty one shutdowns
in history. Ten shutdowns and funding gaps since nineteen seventy six,
four shutdowns lasted more than a business day. This month's
(22:39):
were into our second second month, and it's just a
terrible thing. But as I said, I blame it on
both sides of the aisle, not just one side of
the aisle. And there's a lot of upset people out there.
The American people are sick and tired of it. You know,
why are we letting our government shut down? And people
go with that. Oh so, hopefully both sides of the
(23:02):
aisle can find a way of compromising, negotiating. There's give
and take. That's what politicians need to do. Have give
and tape. Folks, you are listening to Let's Talk Money,
brought to you by Bouchet Financial Group, where we help
our clients prioritize their health while we manage their wealth
for life. We're coming up to the end of the show.
(23:22):
We're going to take a quick break for the news.
I'll be here on the other side. Fond minds are
open one eight hundred eight two, five, five, nine four nine.
Today it's me Stephen Bouchet. I'm here with you, folks.
Thanks for hanging in through the news, and thank you
for tuning in today. Thank you for listening to me
talk about my little sabbatical trip and all that I
(23:45):
did and how I feel. And believe me, folks, it's
been a long year and a half. Mentally, I can
say I'm sitting here feeling as cleansed and as good
as ever because of that trip and the experiences that
I had. And you know, you may not know this,
but I've you know, I think I'm probably physically as
(24:07):
good as I've ever been. I you know, the medical
treatments I went through a year and a half ago,
and losing you know, Sue unexpectedly in the middle of it,
and you know, this past January, losing one of our colleagues, Nicole.
It's been a long year and a half and I've
been working with the exercise trainer and a couple of
(24:30):
days a week. I'm actually going to hot yoga. Don't
laugh if you haven't tried it. It's pretty good. I
want to be able to touch my toes, and hot yoga's
been been pretty good. So I'm feeling pretty good. I'm
feeling as good as I've ever felt mentally and physically.
I'm ready to take on the world. And I'm ready
to take your calls. One eight hundred talk WGY one
(24:55):
eight hundred, eight two five five nine four nine one
eight hundred here at eight two five fifty nine forty nine.
So I started talking about the week starting out on Monday.
Oil prices up, government shutdown continues. You got us manufacturing
shrank for the eighth straight month. Stocks, you know, looking
(25:18):
at artificial intelligence worries and you know they you know,
shares a planetere and in the video we're down pretty
good this week. I kind of like that. I actually
I'm it's wetting my appetite. That's the other area that
I'm looking to have my investment committee invest in his
artificial intelligence. There's some really good ETFs out there that
(25:42):
have a basket of AI companies, and once again, folks,
just like bitcoin and crypto, it's here to stay. I
really think if you're not using artificial intelligence, well don't
miss out. It's not too late. We're still in the
infamousy stages. Start to learn how to use it and
(26:02):
find out for yourself why it's so dynamic. There was
a great article in Today's Barons. You know, I get
my newspapers at Stuarts because I love Stuarts. You know,
every employee of Stuarts is like a partner and their aesops,
so they're all kind of part owners and they take
pride in that. And hey, if you need a job,
(26:24):
Stuart's is paying some pretty good dollars over twenty dollars
an hour, you know, and they treat you right. Gary
Dak and his dad and everybody at Stewart's, they treat
you right. But I get my papers at Stuarts and
Barons Today, which is a good weekly newspaper, had a
(26:44):
great article out there and the title of it is
use AI or You're fired. And I was intrigued by
that title because I literally I came back from my
sabbatical and I had to sit down with each in
every one of my colleagues, face to face, one on one,
(27:04):
just to catch up with them. And the one thing
that we spent a lot of time talking about is
artificial intelligence and why I believe it can you know,
really help us. And it's funny. I just literally I
sent to my leadership team this article because I told them,
I said, I don't want one person in our firm
(27:28):
to think that AI will ever replace third job. Actually,
just the opposite. I look at AI as a tool
to better serve our clients, to help our colleagues be
able to work more efficiently, more productively, be able to
get more done. You know, there's examples in this article,
(27:50):
things that tasks that would take thirty minutes now take
five minutes because of AI. So no, AI will never ever,
ever replace anybody in my firm, not as long as
I'm alive and kicking. I can assure my colleagues that,
and I plan on doing that on Monday after reading
this article, because in the back of my head, I said, geez,
(28:12):
do people worry about that? I don't think so in
my firm because everybody knows how valuable they are. I'm
the kind of leader that the longer somebody's with me,
the more valuable they are to me. And you know,
I want them to be successful. And last week when
I was home, I took all my colleagues. I took
(28:34):
our service team out to launching. Then I took my advisors,
traders and operations to dinner. Went to a place I've
never been. And I love the guy. I've been to
his house many times, Augie's in Boston Spot And what
a cool little place. My mouth still waters for Augie's cooking,
and he wants me to come in some afternoon and
(28:56):
show me how to make a dish or too, And
I may just take them up on that, but I
try to get together with my team, my colleagues is
as best I can. Next week, I'm going to take
them all to the fans Hills and Troy. The fans
Hills has probably the best pizza around and they open
up a cool little restaurant. So we're gonna We're gonna
(29:18):
go down to Troy and get all my colleagues together.
But as I read this article, I don't want anybody
on my team to ever think that AI could ever
replace them, just the opposite. I want AI, you know,
I want AI to help them and I want AI
to really really be a tool that helps them. So
(29:40):
there you have it. That was in this morning's Parents
one eight hundred eighty two five five nine four nine
one eight hundred eighty two, five fifty nine forty nine.
So you had, you know, the two biggies, Polanter Technologies
and Navidia down despite record revenue. You have you know,
(30:02):
as I said, Democrat sweat state and local elections. You
had the Supreme Court appeared skeptical of President Trump's tariffs.
We'll see what happens there. Once again, you heard me
say it in the spring. Was I afraid of tariffs? No,
that I think tariffs could maybe give us a hiccup
or a bump in the road. Yes, But am I
(30:23):
afraid of tariffs? Absolutely not. We'll get through all this
this this stuck with tariffs, and I'm not afraid of it.
And maybe maybe the Supreme Court will, we'll knock it down,
that's all right. President Trump will get maybe not back
at step or two, but he'll get back into it.
(30:45):
And I do believe, and I'm not a Republican, I
do believe he has the country's best interest at heart.
You know, listen, he's He's brought peace to some places
around the world that needed to have peace brought to it.
And he's not done there. You know, the tariffs. At
the end of the day, hopefully more goods will be
produced in this great country of ours, and the countries
(31:09):
that have been milking us for a long time pay
their fair share, and hopefully that brings us more revenue,
which means less taxes. Right, So for the week, you know,
the the all the major in deexes fell, all the
major indexes fell, so you had the SMP down one
point one percent, especially after after you know, you had
(31:33):
Challenge Urn Gray came out and Christmas estimates that there's
over a million one point one million layoffs that that
are going to happen, and that's in line with what
happened with the two thousand and eight two thousand and
nine recession. So, you know, and another reason why consumer
(31:55):
confidence is down. The headline right now is consumer confidence.
It's been sliding the the you know, short term expectations
dropped to sixty five point two earlier this year, which
is historically very low. And why does it matter consumer sentiment? Listen, folks, listen.
(32:16):
It leads to consumer behavior, spending, big ticket items, risk taking.
Consumer spending is the largest part of the us GDP
gross domestic product. It makes up almost two thirds to
seventy percent of it. So the consumer is an important
Listen spoken the wheel, the consumers. What it's all about?
(32:40):
So right now obviously, and some of it man that
maybe all of it or a lot of it is inflation.
Higher prices reduce real purchasing power. Households feel squeezed. They're
paying more in the grocery stores, they're paying more at
the gas pump. Even though those things coming down, they're
(33:01):
still paying more than they were for a while. So
that's taking real money out of their pocket. You got,
you know, wage and earnings expectations that consumers expect and
comes to maybe come to a pause or the job
markets weaken. You know that that takes away from optimism
(33:23):
the consumer. You can't blame the consumer for you know,
maybe being down, having not such a rosy picture of
the future. And you got listen, policy uncertainty, trade, tariffs,
regulatory uncertainty, macro risk. You know, we're all dealing with it, folks,
(33:43):
We are all dealing with it. And this was a
big week in politics. This was a huge week in politics,
and you know it lets some people scratching their heads.
But listen, don't let it bother you. We'll get through it.
It's not the first time that we've had elections that
maybe surprise some people for the good or the bad.
(34:05):
Elections come and go, politicians come and go. Well, I
shouldn't say that a lot of politicians are around the stay.
Let's hope and I will make a political statement. I
am all in favor of term limits. And there may
be some of my friends who are politicians who are
(34:26):
listening and they may not like for me to say that.
And I'm sorry, guys and gals, but I'm all in
favor of term limits. Come in, do a great job,
serve as a public servant, and then get out, go
get a real job. Let somebody else come in, fresh blood,
fresh ideas, somebody who's not beholden. The worst thing that
(34:49):
I hate to see is how can a public servant
supposedly making nominal pay become millionaires? Multi millionaires? How can
that happen? Well, I'm not going to go there, but
I am in favor of term limits, so that, I
guess is a political statement for me. I'm all in
favor of term limits. You got you know, you know,
(35:14):
for for investors. You know, if we have weaker earnings
from from consumer companies like retailers, discretionary segments, that's going
to affect the consumer. You know, there's there's just so
much so you can't blame the consumer. Uh you know,
basically their confidence is diminishing, and you know they got
(35:37):
reduced spending, slower growth, further confidence decline you know, this
is all, this is all part of what we're living
through now, and it's you know, this week, we we
we we we saw and the markets were down this week.
As they said, look at market corrections as opportunities, folks,
(35:58):
don't be scared about it. If you have a good portfolio,
rock solid portfolio of portfolio that is made up of
good investments, do not do not think with your heart.
Always think with your brain. Always look at information and
make rational decisions that are logical when it comes to investing,
(36:21):
And don't sell out because just like that, the markets
can turn around. If you think they're down for this
or that, just like that, they can turn around, and
you don't want to miss that turnaround. Remember back in
earlier this year, you know, the S and P was
down just about twenty percent, that's bear market. Small caps
(36:44):
NASDAK was down over twenty percent percent, they were in
bear markets. In hindsight, how many of you raise your hands?
How many of you said, oh man, why didn't I buy?
Steve tells us all time to take advantage of volatility.
I'm a long term investor. I don't care what happens
(37:07):
for a day, a week, a month, sometimes even a year.
It shouldn't bother you. If you're a long term investor,
do not do not, do not let these crazyness in
the markets. Do not let the bad newspaars scare you
(37:27):
out of the markets. If you have a good portfolio,
use volatility to your advantage. If anything, use volatility to
take advantage of some areas that may have been too expensive.
Get into some areas that you always wanted to get into.
But do not get out of the markets completely. I
don't know of a market timer yet that has made
(37:51):
so much money. I remember when I first got in
the business. So I've been in business thirty five years,
but I got in business nineteen eighty six, and it
was with a little broker dealer out of out of
just outside of Philadelphia. I forget the name of the town.
It'll come to me and maybe two in the morning,
I'll put it on Twitter, but it'll come to me.
(38:14):
And this, you know, they believed in this market timer.
And I remember because they made money, Folks, they made
money and having going to sell these market timing services.
And I think back, and it's like this guy, sure
he might have gotten lucky here or there, but very
(38:34):
seldom do they get lucky on the sell, sell, sell,
and then bye bye bye. Very seldom do they sell, sell,
sell at the high and by bye bye at the low.
Market timers, listen, there's no such thing as a market timer.
Who is on the S and P Fortune or not
(38:55):
the SMP fortune, but the fortune richest people list. There's
not a market timer. I know, you got a guy
like Warren Buffets on there. He doesn't market time. He
buys something and he holds it. And I love Berkshire Hathaway.
It's like a mutual fund, folks, because it's a focused fund.
They have a lot of good companies in there, well diversified.
(39:18):
It's a holding company. Berkshire Hathaway is not a stock.
I'm trying to teach my investment folks that it's not
a stock. It's a holding company. It's no different than
buying your favorite mutual fund or an ETF that has
a basket of stocks. And if that's what Berkshire Hathaway is.
And they have a lot of cash. Actually for a
while they had more cash than some countries had around
(39:41):
the world. So you know, Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett is
not a market timer. He's made some pretty darn good
money through time, some really good money through time. So
you know, if you think that you can market time,
(40:02):
or your brother in law Thanksgiving table dinner can market time, folks,
they can't. They can't. They can't, they can't. And when
you think the SMP over the last five years is
up ninety two percent, a guy like Warren Buffett's ninety
four still goes to work every day. He was up
(40:22):
one hundred and thirty five percent over the last five years.
QQQ was up one hundred percent compared to the SMP
of ninety two percent. Apple up one hundred and thirty percent.
I like saying that because it's our number one holding
over the last five years. Amazon not as much, and
(40:43):
that's our second largest holding, up only forty eight percent
over the last five years. But these are good, good holdings,
and I'm not afraid of long term holdings. I actually
like being invested for the right reason. And it's okay
to make decisions. Sometimes you make decisions we you know,
(41:05):
sometimes I tell clients so often sometimes we'll get into
something and maybe we get out of it soon after
for whatever the reason is. We don't have a crystal ball, folks,
and you know, nobody should think that that that anybody
does have a crystal ball. We don't. This is this
is why our core holdings being the broad market and
(41:28):
QQQ believer in or not, it's one of our core
holdings and they're continually up pretty pretty good, you know,
our core holdings. And I know, I get, I know,
I give these statistics out often, but it's just to
(41:51):
kind of reinforce you to to realize that over time investments,
I don't care what the asset classes, stocks, bonds, commodities
like gold, I don't care what it is. Up, they're
up and down, up and down, up and down. I
go back over the last ten years, there were two
(42:12):
years out of the last ten years where the market
was down. Two out of ten years, eighty percent of
the time the markets are down. And you know, you
look at this year, so really even even more than
eighty percent, because right now the markets look to be
closing up for this year twenty twenty five. But the
(42:34):
fifteen year average of the broad stock market, the S
and P year in year out, with all the craziness,
with all the headlines, fourteen percent a year, year in
year out. There you have it, year in year out
fourteen percent a year. And if you go back NASDAK
over the last you know, ten years eleven including this year,
(42:58):
down two years, and it's one of the years. Twenty
and eighteen it was down point one two percent, point
one two percent. Twenty twenty two it was down thirty
two percent, So that was a hard year. Our portfolios
lagged a little bit because twenty twenty two, if you
look at the SMP twenty twenty two, down eighteen percent,
(43:22):
whereas Nasdaq was down thirty two percent. So that kind
of drag and our clients know that, you know, because
we believe in QQQ will have a year like twenty
twenty two where the market's down thirty two percent. Uh,
the QQQ market is down thirty two percent, the SMP
is only down in twenty twenty two eighteen percent. And
(43:46):
then twenty eighteen, folks, hold on to the seat of
your pants, the broad stock market was down four point
five percent. That was one of the two years over
the last eleven that the markets are down, including this year,
and NASDAK in twenty eighteen was only down point one
two percent. So there you have it.
Speaker 2 (44:06):
It all averages out, but guess what are you ready
for this. Your average return in QQQ over the last
fifteen years, year in, year out, that's what average means,
nine almost nineteen percent, eighteen point sixty six to be exact,
eighteen point six six percent year in, year out. And
(44:26):
then for you nervous and all least, guess what the
bond index, as measured by the ICE Shares Core US
Aggregate bond ETF down as well two out of eleven years,
including this year, So bonds don't always go up either.
They were down in twenty twenty one, down one point
seven almost one point eight percent, and then the year
(44:50):
after twenty twenty two, down thirteen percent. You bought bonds
because you wanted safety, down thirteen percent twenty twenty two,
almost down as as much as the sm P. But
here you go. So you have the S and P
fifteen year average, if you were invested fourteen almost fifteen percent,
You had QQQ your fifteen year average almost nineteen percent.
(45:13):
And the bonds because people put bonds in their portfolio,
not because they're safe.
Speaker 1 (45:20):
Because I just gave the statistic, bonds were also down
two years out of the last eleven, including this year.
This year, bounds are up almost seven percent compared to
the S and P being up fifteen percent. So bonds
are having a pretty good year this year, which is
why at the beginning of the show I said, I
actually like bonds. The bonds are having a pretty good
(45:43):
year this year. But over the last fifteen years, sm
P up fourteen to fifteen percent, QQQ up almost nineteen percent,
bonds up two point two percent two point two percent.
So it does soften the volatility, but doesn't prevent risks.
So when you put together your portfolio, ask yourself, are
(46:04):
you a long term investor or short term investor? Are
you okay with some volatility, some ups and down, some
bumps in the road knowing not. Over the last forty
four years, the average average swing in the markets high
to low, peak to trough is fourteen percent. Can you
weather that? Yes? Absolutely you can weather even now with
(46:26):
the markets being down this week. Don't be afraid, don't
don't don't spread over it. Look at it as an
opportunity to get into some areas that you always wanted
to get into. It's a beautiful thing. Let me remind
you just one more time, folks about this seminar, because
I'm so excited about it. You know, we're doing these
(46:46):
more and more, this one this Wednesday, Ryan, and we're
partnering up with the rl GC Law Group, which the
managing partners Jim Lebrue, a great guy. I've been referring
clients to Rick Rowlands and Jim for years and now
they got Marty Finn there and they got some other
(47:08):
dynamic attorneys. And this Wednesday night, November twelfth, five thirty
at the Brookmere Hotel or I should say Hotel Brookmere
in Saratoga Exit fourteen, folks, go just past Saratoga National
and guess what right on your right you'll see the
old longfellows And as I joke for those of you
(47:31):
that used to go out and about in the whole
days the Canterbury Now it's called Hotel brook Mare. This Friday,
five thirty go to our website Booshay dot com, beaz
In' boy ouch e y dot com and you'll be
able to register five thirty. It's going to be dynamite, folks.
We're coming up to the end of the show. You
(47:52):
are listening to Let's Talk Money, brought to you by
Boo Schaef and Andswergar, where we help our clients prioritize
their health while we manage their wealth for life. If
you want to come in for a pro bono that
would be free initial consultation. Call our office or go
to our website to get more information. Thanks for tuning
(48:13):
in today. Come back tomorrow morning eight am. John and
Ed have a great day, folks.
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