Retirement Planning Show

September 30th, 2023

Episode Transcript

(00:01):
Welcome to the Retirement Planning Show withhost Dave Kopak. In the financial services
business for over thirty five years.The Retirement Planning Group LLLC is a registered
investment advisor. David M. Kopakis also a registered representative of persh kaplan
Sterling Investments Incorporated PKS in their separatecapacities. A registered representative of PKS,

(00:22):
David M. Copack may recommend theimplementation of securities through PKS instead of Retirement
Planning Group LLC. Perst Capitlan,Sterling Investments and Retirement Planning Group LC are
not affiliated companies. Now it's timefor the Retirement Planning Show on WGY.

(01:06):
You know who that is? Something? Brothers something brothers, isn't it right?
Just brothers? Oh tupac? Yeah, I heard that there's an arrest.
Wasn't there just twenty five years later? Right? Right? Was it
ninety seven? Something like that?He was murdered. I have no idea.
It was not on my top tenlist. Yeah. I actually didn't

(01:29):
know even who it was until Idied, says passed away. But lolo,
good morning, I'm Dave Kopec.This is the Retirement Planning Show.
It's the weekend, so of courseit's time for rain. It's rain,
it isn't I'm still sick of rain. Yesterday I took some time off.
I actually did some TLC up atthe house and that's some things that need

(01:53):
to get done with contractors, sothat's always fun waiting around for them.
But Drouel was here today. We'regoing to talk a little bit about what's
going on in the housing market,interest rates, and also we're gonna talk
a little bit about commercial real estate. And I had I just told him
I gotta I got a story thatI wanted to discuss in detail with the

(02:15):
listeners and also Drew. It's abouta couple people I've been working with for
over twenty years that were waiting toget to the promised land of retirement,
and they made it two years ago. And I'll tell you what has transpired
over those two years, which Ithink you find it very interesting, especially

(02:37):
for people that want to head south. And I need to do a little
housekeeping first and foremost, Drew toyou and your team and everybody else that
participated this past week and our golfouting for the American Cancer Society. Had
a great day, great weather startoff a little foggy, but it cleared

(02:58):
off and it was in the LowSands. Picture perfect day. Great the
fairways a half moon did a greatjob for us, So for all of
you, thank you so much.Yeah, that was one of the best
golf outings I've ever been to,because you know, scrambles, charity events
like that, they're sometimes a littledifficult. Did you guys move along pretty

(03:20):
good? Yeah, that's what I'msaying. It was five hours, but
that's as good as it gets ona scramble, especially in the morning.
It was hard to see so foggy, but wow, it turned out to
be a beautiful day. I thoughtthe participation was amazing. The weather was
great, the food was great,the course was in great shape. It
was we had a great force himthe wonderful Leah family did a car for

(03:42):
us. A hold the one Ijust missed it, of course, you
know, I just just by thewidth of a ball. Probably. I
told Marissa, my son's girlfriend,it was from the Lea family. I
said, you know, just gotell your parents that I got a hold
of That's funny. But Dave winsthe NISA, you know, you know,

(04:02):
you know, last year, thisyear, I think this year last
year. I think this year Icame within one role of a hole in
one at Eagle Crest. Really onemore role. It wasn't a charity function
just in general. No, itwas our golf the golf outing that we
do every week, our golf league. Oh you're golf league, yea,
with our clients. One role youever had, one? No, one

(04:25):
role. That was the closest I'veever been. I had two. My
brother in law Steve at his golfevent, the one that died of cancer
at Burden Lake Country Club. Thatone where you're up on the hill and
you're shooting down for the part threeright, Garrett Robertie God bless his soul,
said to me, come on,Dave, put it in the hall
and it was going, It wasgoing, It was going. Then right

(04:46):
at the very end it just broke. Well We're like, oh my god,
you gotta play that break better nexttime. Yeah. But a couple
of things. I want to thankall of our sponsors, all the people
that stepped up. I know it. We'll be sending a letter out,
you know, Like I said,the Leah family, we had the tub
company, the hot tub company inSpa. I go through the whole laundry

(05:11):
list. Drew of course, wasa sponsor with his organization, but thank
you so much. We did raisequite a bit of money. Julie's in
the process accounting out the checks andsome of the commitments that we've had from
people that the money has a comein yet, want to verify that we're
definitely going to get it. Andlike anything else, you know, cancer
is a horrific disease. Keep Kellyand John, I ask every week in

(05:31):
your in your prayers. They're reallyhaving a very, very difficult time battling
this horrific disease. Kelly was ourmaid of honor, John as our cousin
and it's it's just it's it's horrificto watch yesterday. I want to tell
you a real quick story. Youknow, I'm a member, I have
a corporate membership at McGregor, andwe were up there. My cousin Karen

(05:56):
was the one that two years agogot in the golf cart at age sixty
two who didn't make it to thegolf cart. She was going out to
play nine and nine in the afternoonand got to the golf cart, had
a massive heart attack and died atage sixty two and she was a giver
of life. She gave owner ownerdonations, skin eyes, everything. It's

(06:21):
pretty amazing. And John gets alot of heart felt messages from the people
that were receivers of the gift oflife. But bottom line gets down to
is that she used to spend alot of time socializing at McGregor and her
and John were like Stalworth's up thereand the do you know the at the

(06:45):
turn there was that little snack bar, a little hot, a little hot.
Well, they expanded it and theydid a donation. They put a
beautiful deck on tables and chairs,and they did that in honor of my
cousin and Karen And when was itshe died two years ago? They did
it. They did it, YesterWow. So after Julie and I got

(07:08):
out of work, we went upand for the festivities and everybody spoke,
you know, the family, andthen they have a plaque that's right there.
It's called Karen's with the Kay corner. Nice. Yeah, nice nice.
So God bless all those people.EJ. Harkin, John Robert,

(07:30):
the people that own McGregor Country Club. There's a lot of people up there
that really went the extra mile tomake this happen. Billy Kier. Actually,
it's crazy Billy. I grew upwith Billy. He's a Scatticook guy.
Uh so he was the other guyin that town. Yeah, he
was. There was two of us. Good thing he didn't know his brother.

(07:58):
We don't talk about Billy's brother.So so yeah, yeah, so
isn't that nice touch. It's goodwhen you have I mean, it's sad
because we all have tragedy, andit's good when you can turn it into
something positive. Yeah, it reallyis. And so so for everybody that
participated in the golf on thank you, thank you, thank you. The

(08:20):
baskets that you had, the raffles, Holy cow, every time I looked,
I thought I was over, there'sanother table. I gotta say this.
I've never seen anybody you said.It's one of the best that you.
Jim Corkran in our office literally spendsweeks on that. I can't imagine
weeks. I can't imagine. He'sgot it so worked out now, disciplined

(08:41):
as far as what needs to getdone, when it needs to get done,
when the stuff has to come in, because you think about it,
you think all this stuff it's setup, and you know, just walk
in a couple of hours. Yougot to do all the sponsors of the
holes, right, you got toget out in the cart ahead of time,
all the gifts that got to comein. And he works the phones
too all the time. Jim doesn't. He's he's always emailed me, of

(09:03):
course the sponsorship package, but he'she picks up the phone and calls people.
That's a lot of work. Icouldn't imagine, but I I was.
I was impressed by by the uhthe tickets and the lottery and the
baskets and all the all the thingsthat you could win there. That was
that was almost like it was almostan item per person. It was a

(09:24):
lot. Christopher, he wanted thatEli Manning water grow. I put a
few tickets out there, but Giovanni, one of his buddies from CBA,
ended up stepping up. He gotone hundred dollars worth of tickets because he
wanted it. And Chris was justwaiting and waiting and wait and wait.
They pulled you. He wanted topop him, and he just flooded.

(09:45):
He flooded that the flooded. That'sall right, though they caught him.
Put the put the money, putthe money in underd dollars worth the tickets.
So he won, so that's good, good for him. Probably got
a thousand dollars picture though. Yeah, probably that was good. Yeah,
probably, I mean two time intothe ball Champ MVP. So he might
go to the Hall of Fame,you never know. Yeah, So here
we are, we're gonna be talking. We're gonna be here until nine o'clock

(10:09):
the Retirement Planning Show. Drew's gonnabe with us until well, whenever he
wants to leave, he can leave. And I know you got a commitment.
But we're gonna talk a little bitabout what's going on in the markets,
and of course what's going on,but I want to tell you a
little bit about the story because Ithink it's important. But it's open lines.
If you want to call in,say hi, I don't care talk
about anything. You know what's goingon right now, Zach, you know

(10:33):
what's going on right now? Yeah, your show. We're getting a lot
of people from outside of New YorkState. Colonists had a guy this week.
I talked to him on the telephoneand he said, can I talk
to Dave? And yeah, ofcourse I'll talk to anybody you know.
Put it in the schedule and theguy says, Jesus, he goes,

(10:54):
I love your show, blah blahblah. And I said, where do
you love? He goes, Ilive in Waterford, Waterford. It was,
yeah, I live in Waterford.I said, well, my family's
originally say, you're kidding me.Your family's from Wisconsin. From Waterford,
Wisconsin. Oh, Waterford, Wisconsin. Waterford, Wisconsin, which I thought
was pretty cool. Wow, becauseI had to spend some time in Wisconsin
when I was in South Dakota.I used to drive over there get some

(11:16):
cheese. That's the place I've neverbeen to. But obviously watching the game
Thursday night, Yeah, I wantto go to that stadium. I think
that's that's a bucket list, justto see a game there. Yeah,
but you can't go there until it'slike ten below. Yeah, that's frozen
tundra. And so I have Ihave seats at the Giant Stadium. Everybody's

(11:37):
like, oh, yeah, theyreally like inside. No, I want
to be outside in the elements.Yeah, I'm I'm five rows from the
field in the elements. So Ithink it's fun. Yeah, it's it's
it's exciting. I think, Nico. If I'm not mistaken. Nico's on
his way to Orchard Park. He'sgonna go to the football game today.
That's a big one, right theyplaymorrow. I think it's he's gonna go

(11:58):
over spend the night Buffalo? Isit? We'll check it, but we're
gonna we're gonna take our first breakwhen we come back. We're gonna take
some phone calls if you have anyeight talk to WY one eight hundred eight
five fifty nine. A little bitof rain out there, so we'll get
your second cup of coffee, anddon't turn the doll. We'll be right
back the eighty six per centers.Do you know that eighty six percent of

(12:20):
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(12:41):
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(13:05):
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(13:26):
nine. That's one eight hundred talkw g Y, one eight hundred talk
w G Y. We are livein studio to answer your questions. Okay,

(14:07):
we are back. Frankie Valley inthe Four Seasons, Julie and I
went to see that show on Broadway, The Jersey Boys. Yeah. I
didn't want to leave. I wantedto see it over and over and over.
I mean it was such people werelike just invigorated, like it was
like electricity. Yeah, it's funny, it's it's when it comes to the

(14:28):
arts. I'm not big on museumsand art. I love history, but
Broadway shows my favorite. I lovethose. You know, my brother's an
actor, and I know that mybrother's a professional actor. He was,
he was in a Broadway shows.Okay, he moved to California, didn't
do as many on the boards.He did screen and filmy and yeah,

(14:50):
Sweeney todd Sending the Park with George. I mean, there's a bunch of
shows that he was in, older, younger, older than me. Yeah,
he's kind of sitting on the fencenow. He just did Sunshine Boys
with Danny DeVito and Judge kersh HirschHirsch and theater. Was he part of
the strike? That? Was hein the organis the union? Probably?

(15:13):
Yeah? I guess they worked itall out. He's gonna whatever's gonna happen.
He's gonna support hardest working people onearth or professional actors. And you
know, we hear about the celebsmaking tons of money, but the majority
of them don't. They don't makea lot, don't. There's a horrible
situation up by hearing Dorset, Vermont, where Williams treat Williams got killed with

(15:35):
a motorcycle accident. Yeah, yeah, a few months back right. Yeah,
all right. I want to tellyou a story, and I know
that you I'm just curious what yourthought processes at a client that came in.
I'll make this quick a minute sowe can talk about it. They've
been working with me for about twentyyears. Couldn't wait to get to the
final destination retirement. They made it, put their house up for sale,

(15:58):
moved to Florida. They are therefor two years, houses up for sale.
They're moving back. They've had enoughof Florida. Two years. Two
years they went through Ian. Theylive in Fort Myers area, Bruscat.
Yeah, got devastated, wiped out, Traffic, congestion, Florida's the theme
that I'm starting here over and overagain. And I don't know, you

(16:22):
probably saw it when you go downand see your mother and your sister.
A lot of congestion, a lotof people. It's not the same Florida
that it used to be. Youknow, unaffordable for a lot of people
because the pricing is so far upthrough the roof right now. And guests
was moving there and you get theweather. Guess was moving there. My
son David's moving there next week.Yeah, my son lives in Tampa.

(16:45):
Now, So what's your thought processon that. Yeah, I agree,
I'm not You know, my wifeand I go down there a few times
a year and we always say Idon't think I could live there, just
because of those very reasons. I'mnot great with heat. I don't like
congestion. I don't you know.All those highways are four or five lane
highways and they're always packed and itis dangerous. You got people driving down

(17:06):
there that kids see you're here,and you've got people driving down there that
are sixteen. They let him driveearly and I just found out. He
says too that you know, you'renot required to have insurance down there,
so if you get no car accidentinspections, Yeah, there's no inspections of
the cars. You know, youhear a lot of the He just said
that there's an article that he justread when he was driving up here and
not reflying up here, and hebasically said the five reasons why you shouldn't

(17:30):
move to Florida, not the fivereasons why you should. So some of
the shine is coming off the orange, and that usually happens like anything that
just highs and lows. Obviously,the financial benefits are huge because the tax
situation is so so. But Iguess nice, but he said that's subsiding
too, because there's only one insurancecompany now in order for you to get
your insurance, your property and casuallyhome insurance. Yeah, only one.

(17:55):
That's not good in Florida right now. And the thing is is that that
that's a lot of stress, alot of anxiety. My sister lives in
a town called Odessa outside of Tampa. It's fairly new. It's still not
heavily populated, so it's not bad. But I'm sure that's short lived.
Eventually it'll probably get over. Well, here's my message to all future retirees.

(18:18):
What I just said to you,get a key, yeah, rent
right, I mean, if youlove it, den sell, but you
better know what you own and whereyour location is because it changed. When
I say that the area changed,Look at the villages. The villages is
what over two hundred thousand people now, Oh my god, it's over two
hundred thousand people. They jo JoeSha told me the other days. Eventually

(18:41):
their goal is to take your cartall the way from the villages right into
Disney. That's nuts, amazing,that's nuts. I mean, when you
think about it's pretty amazing. Soall right, so Drew will courses in
the mortgage industry, the FED metthey didn't go up. What the bond
market do? How'd they price itup? The bond market initially was okay

(19:03):
because we everybody anticipated that the Fedwould not do anything. But what he
said after cause a little sell offin the bond market. You know,
it's like it's it's if they Here'sthe thing which is always confusing to me.
It's like when it comes to presidentialelections, we're always picking the lesser
of two evils. Right, We'rethe biggest, baddest country on the planet,

(19:23):
and we always have that dichotomy theFed. Powell is an attorney.
It's great if I get If Ineed a legal issue, I want attorney.
If I have an economic issue,I want an economist, no CPA
financial advisor. He's a lawyer,and they're making FED policy and they're going
to go too far. I thinkhe pretty much admitted that I don't think

(19:45):
they're done. Unfortunately, they shouldbe done. You look at inflation,
look at the job numbers, youlook at manufacturing, look at consumer sentiment,
build their sentiment, the housing uh, you know, it's it's they
should be done or at least,you know, Paul or say pause.
But what he said spooked the markets. So now we're at seventeen year highs
on the ten year treasury and fourpoint se mortgages. Yeah, it's we

(20:08):
haven't seen this since what twenty so, uh, that's that's not good even
though you have you know, pccame out yesterday personal consumption expenditure, that's
their favorite gauge of inflation, andthat was actually a little bit lighter than
we expected, and it's going tocontinue to come down. So you would
think they'd be done looking at allthe indicators and how much progress we had.

(20:32):
We had nine point one CPI inflationa year ago. Now we're a
three handle, right, So that'sthat's significant in terms of progress, and
you would think that interest rates wouldcome down or at least they would pause
and stop. But they they're notdone. I don't think all the data
as far as the financial destruction thatthey're trying to accomplish is being accomplished.

(20:55):
Look at credit card debt highest ever, look at the defaults getting really getting
really high. I don't know ifit's the worst that it's ever been yeah,
people have You know, over fiftypercent of the population doesn't have a
thousand dollars. If there's a nineone one, which is this is sick.
That's crazy. We're sending billions oftrillions overseas and our own people,
and I heard today we're actually payingthe salaries of the first responders in Ukraine.

(21:19):
I don't even want to get intoit because anytime I talk politics,
people call me in the next dayand they start screaming at me. Yeah
thats CBS last night. I justdon't get it. I don't get where
our mentality is here. You know, when you've got people that are living
on the streets or people that areliving out of their cars what I call
hardworking, hardworking sabers and hardworking peoplethat can't afford a bag of groceries.

(21:41):
Yeah, I can't afford a bagof groceries here. You know, free
price is up eleven percent in amonth. That's it's it's just my Cumberland
farm. I mean, there's sucha distortion between gas two four L four
right here on Choice connected your roadfour L four Cumberland Farms. You go
up to where we live in CliftonPark, you can get his lows three
seventy three right now at Valero.Wow. So I don't know what the

(22:03):
hell's going on right So Broadway threethirty nine, is it really yep?
So go up to Ryer Dam onBroadway three thirty nine. You're kidding me?
Wife just got gassed today? Ohkidding. I feel like I'm always
playing close to five. How canyou have that much of a spread three
thirty nine to four h four.That makes no sense. It doesn't make

(22:23):
any sense. But you reserve.Now, we got to worry about the
federal government. I could care lessshut it down. I don't care.
You know what. Maybe they'll gettheir heads out of there, you know
what, and they're gonna do somethingthat's actually it's gonna benefit benefit the pup.
Look at the Look at a guyin Jersey. They go through his
suits. He's get five hundred thousanddollars in this box. About that it's

(22:47):
got gold bummers. I mean,I gotta find out where the hell he's
buying his suits sixty eighty grand andat at a Mercedes Benz. I didn't
do anything wrong. You can can'tmake this stuff up. You got the
wrong guy. Yeah, how youimpleade I'm am plead innocent. I didn't
do anything wrong. How about Ididn't do anything worse than the Biden field.

(23:10):
How about Feinstein? She passed yesterday. Horrible thing. So she her
salary I think was about two hundredtwenty thousand. Ye now her net worth
billion two hundred and twenty million.How's that happened? Out that salary?
She must be the most amazing businesswomanI've ever read. Hurt her and Hillary
Clinton or sitting down with their chartswhen to buy and sell pork bellies?

(23:32):
Because Hillary put in a thousand,he came out with a hundred. Should
should be should be a Wharton businessschool. I'm not talking anymore. Follow
I'll get my nose cut off here. So all right, when we come
back, we're gonna be talking aboutthe financial market. It's not about politics.
But if you have any questions orcomments, it's one eight hundred talk
to bg y. That's one eighthundred eight two five fifty nine forty nine.

(23:55):
It's raining out, get your othercup of coffee. If you have
any questions, it's all the lines. We're more than happy to talk to
you. Droy Ellos here he's gonnabe here. Well, when he wants
to leave, he can leave.Kick'll kick me at at something kick at
some point. So again one eighthundred talked to by one eight hundred,
eight two five fifty nine forty nine. We'll be right back. WHOA my

(24:29):
home, good yo, touch Iknow this one time? Righteous who it
is? All right, we areback. One of the best movies ever,

(24:51):
Ghosts is that one's from I don'tthink it's from there, but but
it was one of the main songsthat were Demi Moore and and Patrick Swayze
was Yeah, that was a goodmovie. Beautiful. I used to love
that, but that was a bigsong. I love story. Yea,
all right, Dave Cope Roll.We're conversing here at the break as far

(25:22):
as the changes that are going ondomestically here in the United States with our
economy. And you think we're ata peak? Are we think? Are
we at a peak? Gut ratesright now? I think we are.
We we as a company feel weare. We're actually let's say, for
example, and it's this is yourcrystal ball is broken? Yeah, as

(25:45):
you told me the crystal ball.I thought there was gonna be a great
summer. By the way, Iknow here we are in the fall.
It. Yeah, they revised alot of the figures for last year,
so it's skewed the numbers for thisyear. Obviously, this government situation,
the government potential shut down is notis not helping us. So there's some
sticky things here that we didn't seecoming. But but yeah, I feel

(26:07):
like we're at the peak. We'reseventeen year or highs. We're seeing inflation
come down, We're seeing some somecracks in the economy with the manufacturer activity
and employment, and I feel likeall the stimulus money has been sucked out
of the economy. Savings rate aresuper low, credit card debts super high.

(26:29):
So how long does that go onfor until there's a big crack somewhere
with the consumer and the consumers let'sface it, we're three quarters of the
GDP, So if the consumers stopspending, what does that do to your
economy? Right? So, nextyear, as you and I have discussed
many times, commercial real estate seemsto be a huge problem with the vacancies,

(26:51):
the leases that are expiring, theloans that are coming due. I
don't care what building you walk intoday, have to be refinanced. This
complex here that we're in a rightover fifty percent of it is empty.
It's been it's been empty for years, right years. I know. I
know building. I know the buildingsthat seem to be populous where there's plenty
of people, or the government facilitiesright all right, government municipalities. Right

(27:18):
in healthcare, we look at lookat Clifton Park. Use that as an
example. Almost all the major buildingsup there recently. Take Root nine North.
Yeah, it's all medical. Yeah, all medical. We got doctor
goldstock bone and joint. Uh.He's got it. Like a two hundred
million dollar project going on in WiltonGlen's Falls area doing well, but it's

(27:38):
going to be apartments and retail.I think it seems like retails reinvented itself.
They've repurposed a lot of the mallsand what I feel that do be
tough? Do you physically go outand shop anymore? Now? No?
I do ninety nine percent of itover the internet. I know what I
want. Paul Frederick, Yep,it's funny. I have this like shampoo,

(28:02):
I like LI said, just youknow you want to line and had
it delivered, you know, forbetter or for worse. You get to
feel like it's the evil Empire.But it's so convenient. What do you
do well? I think the shop'syodorant to me, to me, to
me, the uh yeah, Imean that's the b I mean I'll stop
at Right Aid and pick up thebasics that stuff. But the thing is
is like in Lake George where theoutlets are, I don't think there's one

(28:30):
vacancy up there. It's they're booming. Yeah, but I think that's what
people want. They like they likethat they we're getting a deal, feel
like they're getting a deal. Yeah, you're convenient, it's condensed. Going
right through it, you can seea lot of stuff in a short period
of time. Now that facility Ithink personally has hurt Manchester, Vermont dramatically.
Maybe there's no doubt in my mindbecause if you go to Manchester and

(28:52):
see what's going there versus what's goingon in the Lake George outlets, do
you ever go to Do you evergo to uh Lee not laid down end
of the Thruway, Woodberry, WoodberryCommons, Holy cow, but my son
goes down there. David Michael.Michael's crazy. Those are really all high
end. If you like high end, high end stuff, that those places

(29:12):
are they're jammed. But I thinkI think that's where it's concentrated. I
think the reads because the consumer spending. I feel like they're spending on air
right now, on fumes, butso that could change. It's the commercial
real estate where you have offices,office space, right, that's that's I
think in big trouble for next year. Look at them all here, Look

(29:33):
look at Cross Gates, perfect example. They had bond obligations. I don't
I don't have the numbers in frontof me. This is approximate, folks,
that don't hold me to these numbers. It's like two, say,
hundreds of millions, two hundred fortymillion dollars. And I think Goldman Sacks
came in with a hedge fund andbought it for like a buck twenty.

(29:55):
So they're buying, you know,they're buying. Now you try to build
that thing again for one hundred andtwenty million dollars. Not happening. No,
it's not gonna happen. All right, it's not gonna happen. So
you know what their long term goalof that facility is. Who knows,
no reason I've ever been in there. It's for the Apple store. Well,
I'll tell you why I avoid it, like I don't like, I
don't like to go anywhere where AndI don't want to say this in the

(30:18):
wrong way where you don't feel safe, you don't. I won't let my
wife go there. And unless it'sa broad daylight, absolutely yeah, that's
there's a lot, a lot ofbad stuff going on there. And you
know, I'm not trying to youknow, shoot a dart at you know
what their their population and what theydo down there, and it is what
it is, what it is.But the thing is is that when you
have shootings and all sorts of badevents going on. Uh, you know,

(30:42):
if I always say to Julie,you know, if you're going to
go down there, make sure Julieand my daughter Michael, who used to
go down there quite a bit,not a lot, but you know for
certain things that there's certain stories thatthey wanted to go to, right I
used to hold my breath until theygot home. Yeah, at least and
Kens used to go there a lot. I I personally, you know,
unless it's the Apple store, I'mnot going there right so right now,

(31:04):
in the mortgage industry, I meanI've got the bond yields here, I
mean, if I had these yieldstwo years ago to three years ago,
you and I could be sitting onour own private jets somewhere right five forty
five on three months, six sixmonths five fifty four. Twelve month is
five forty five, the two yearis five oh four. Now we haven't

(31:26):
seen these rates, these yields inyears, and the thing is, that's
amazing to me. The average investorI talked about this last week has learned
less and actively managed bond portfolio thanfive percent. They say the average is
about four point seven percent four pointseven six over the last ten years.
If you want, if you're ifyou want to sleep at night, you

(31:48):
want to pay your bills, Youdon't want to worry about your corpus,
your principle. I don't understand whyyou would walk away from those yields,
right and myga's multi you're guaranteed anuities right now? Are paying over six
percent? Six? That's crazy AndI don't care. I don't care what
the Fed says. I feel likeinflation is probably half of that. Yeah,
it's six six is you know that'salways seems to be the magical number.

(32:13):
What what rate of return would youfeel happy with and not have your
money in the stock market or thebond market. Zero risk, zero risk
principles, guaranteed blah blah blah blahblah. If they have the rule of
sevens, you're almost there. Ye, rule of seventy two. All right,
six divided into seventy two is twelve. Pretty good. I'm pretty quick
on my feet. It's pretty good. You've been doing this a while.

(32:37):
I got my cheat cheater Guy's avocus. I got the save little piece of
papper Abau was in high school,stuck to his computer. Scrape. But
make a long story short. Yeah, money doubles every twelve years. It's
six. Yeah, So if it'sif you're an accumulator, right, you
get two hundred thousand, you gotfour hundred thousand another you know, you

(32:59):
know a lot of times we talkabout how are you gonna utilize this money?
What's the purpose? A lot ofpeople look at them their assets,
and they look at it as accumulation. And I always say, the biggest
thing, you're big Your biggest hurdlein retirement is not accumulating, is how
to preserve, preserve it, protectit, and then get it to the
next generation. All Right, youmight. You might be at that age

(33:19):
pretty soon that you're gonna start thinkingabout that. Maybe, you know,
maybe it's weird. I don't.I always wonder what's what's the next chapter.
Yeah, I can't imagine not workingand shot out of a kid.
Yeah, maybe maybe jumping that GrandCanyon on a motorcycle. You never know.

(33:39):
I don't. I don't love golf. You're gonna have to get it.
You have to get a keep foryour wife. I don't love golf
enough to play it every day,So I feel like I'll always work.
And you're a great golfer too.They had fun. Yeah, you're a
great golfer. That's the thing that'samazing. I wish I could say that
I like to play golf, butI stick. Hey, if you guys,

(34:00):
if anybody out there plays with Dave, if you stand right in front
of him, you're safe when heswings. You know. If I always
get two or three good hits outof the out of the eighteen holes,
it always makes me feel better aboutmyself. That's it. Usually, if
it happens on eighteen to keep youkeeps you coming back. God, I
said to my wife and said,oh my god, please by the fifteenth

(34:21):
hole, I said, you know, this is it. I've really had
enough. I got three more.I said, uh, Julie, and
I like to play nine and ninenine and nine nine holes, get a
snack, nine holes, go havedinner or whatever it may be. So
that's a good couples thing to do. Ye. So if I'm sitting on
the sidelines right now with the anticipation, this is a conversation they just had

(34:44):
with the guy. He wants tocome back to the Capitol district, he
wants to buy a house here.And he's saying to me, Dave,
should I have a mortgage? Youknow? Should I? Should? I
use some of my cash now andthen when rates go down, I'll do
a refive because rates will be lower. And I said, I can't tell
you when that's going to happen.I mean if you sell quickly, yeah,

(35:06):
I mean you can take some ofyour money out of your portfolio.
Problem with him, though, isthat that a lot of a lot of
that money is not non traditional moneyor quality. It's qualified money. It's
qualified money. It's rays so he'sgonna have to pay tax. Yeah,
I get that question a lot.What to do with the funds and I
say, put down as little aspossible, uh where it meets your monthly

(35:30):
payments would have fits your budget,and keep the rest invested. You do,
I do, And I think.I think in a year lost opportunity,
cost opportunity, costs of growth.It's liquid. I think it's safer
got two assets working for you ratherthan one. Right, you still got
to your house. Equity has azero ry to return. A lot of
people don't understand that equity. Ifyour house has leveraged one hundred percent or

(35:53):
has no mortgage on it, it'sstill going to appreciate by the same amount.
So equity has a zero ray tobet. And I always worry about
safety liquidity. I feel like,you know, if you have my money,
I can touch it, feel it, I can get to it.
If I have your money, yougotta call me. You've got to refinance
to get it out. It's it'sme and there's a cost associated with that.

(36:15):
So I always think it's better outsidethe house if you can do it
in New York State. Do youstill have to pay the mortgage tax?
That's such a kick in the kid, It really is. Florida has it
too, They have a version ofit, but there's only a handful of
states in the country that have it. Most states don't have mortgage tax.
So what Dave's talking about is NewYork state mortgage tax. It's about three

(36:37):
quarters of a percent in Saratoga Countyand then it's one percent in all the
other counties in the Capitol region.So anytime you buy or sell, you
have to pay mortgage tax. Sowe understand what's happening in the markets right
now. We feel interest rates area are elevated and will come down.
We're actually buying our clients interest rightdown a full percentage point for them.

(36:57):
So if rates today, say,for example, are seven and a half,
they'll be at six and a halfwith us for the next twelve months
and then we feel like they'll refineand then when they go to refi.
To your point, we're actually kickingin fifteen hundred dollars towards closing costs to
help out with that mortgage tax issueand the closing costs. So we're trying
to help homeowners because we feel likethe end is near. It's it's definitely

(37:20):
stickier than we thought, but youcould see four and a half or five
percent in the next twelve to eighteenmonths in real estate, and right now
and right right now, a thirtyyear piece of papers, what you're probably
depending on credit anywhere from seven andan eighth to seven and a half,
you know, depending on your loanto value your credit score on a thirty
year piece of paper. So again, like you were saying, you know,

(37:43):
the highest since two thousand and seven, I've heard, you know.
I tell the listeners that I likeDave Ramsey. I don't like a hundred
I don't like a one hundred percentof his messaging, not all of it,
but I do like the greens andbeans and you know, live within
your means and all that stuff,right right, I just think that makes
all the sensence common sense, commonsense. But you know, when you
got credit cards out there that you'repaying twenty it's it's up there, right

(38:07):
because at eight and a half,right, it's it's to me, it's
it's it's it should be against thelaw because the people that are basically loading
up on those credit cards are theones that can least afford those type of
interest rates. Agreed, Right,So if if you're not if you're not

(38:29):
an owner of equity in a house, right, you're really kind of you
know, what, what do youdo? You're going down the river without
a paddle, right, right?So what's your suggestion to people? I
mean, I know that you workwith people that have equity in their homes,
but somebody comes in they don't haveequity in their home. What's your
answer to that question? How howdo I basically get my self my head

(38:52):
above water? Well, we dohave a program where we come out with
we're gonna go up to one hundredthousand unclatteralized. So when we got those
situations decent credit, but you're starting, you're still the lowest rate you'll see
it is probably seven in. Thehighest rate you'll see is twelve. It's
still better than credit card debt attwenty something. And it's a fixed installment

(39:13):
loan. It's not revolving, whichyou know revolvers on a credit card.
If you just pay the minimum,you're gonna pay on that for twenty seven
years, just paying the minimum,which is basically forever. So we have
that and then and then obviously Ithink there's a lot of good companies out
there that can do that. Thatcredit not credit repair, but they'll renegotiate

(39:34):
your credit card fees. They'll probablytry to get it under control. I
always think, I always think bankruptcyis your last resort. That's when you're
in dire, dire straits. Ifeel like there's so many more solutions these
days where you don't have to filebankruptcy. You could talk to someone,
you can get your hands around theproblem, you can try to make it.
One payment was really easy and manknew people they would you know they
failed. Well, the wife wouldwe spend all this money and put it

(39:57):
on credit cards? And the guyI should the wife, both the both
of them would go crazy and thenjust they file for bankruptcy and it would
evaporate and just go away, goaway, and then you know, they
build up their credit again, theystart doing it again. Here here's the
here's the question I have for you. How do you change bad behavior?
Can't? Don't? I don't knowif you can, you know what I

(40:22):
mean? You should be able towith consequences. It's like our kids,
how do they know? How dothey learn from their situation if they've never
been in this situation? You know, it's like you know they I think
any successful businessman will tell you.And I know that you know, this
failure is your friend. Yeah,because you've learned from it. You won't

(40:42):
make that mistake again. If youdo, shame on me, right right,
right. But the thing is,you know, right, that's the
key, Yeah, exactly, failurein a good way. Failure with spending
is not in a good way.You look at it, You're not you
know. You know, we've spentmillions of dollars in marketing and sales,
millions over the years that I've beenin the business. Some of it nothing,

(41:05):
nothing, And you'd have these peoplesay to you, oh, yeah,
you're gonna get all sorts of leadgeneration, right, yeah, yeah.
As I write the check for them, it was it was so easy.
It was yeah, let me gointo the next fish, right,
you know. But the thing isis that it's it's I think it's true
with what's going on right now.I think right now, I've been doing
this. Now, I'm going intomy forty second year starting eighty two,

(41:31):
just had my anniversary. I'm goinginto my forty second year. I've never
seen sentiment in uncertainty as high asit is today, as far as negativity
and feeling good. It's funny tosay that, and I don't know if
it's because I'm getting older, andyou know, when you're younger, you

(41:51):
know there's no such thing as fearor anything like that. So I don't
know if it's as I'm getting older, if it's really out there. I
just I feel the same way.I feel like the most uncertain that I've
ever felt reguarding our country and oureconomy and where we're headed. Absolutely,
it's really discerning at the moment.And I don't know, and may because
I'm fifty six years old and I'veseen a lot, or is it really

(42:14):
out there? I don't know.It's out there, and I see it.
I hear it almost every day whenI'm talking individuals. I think this
election cycle is going to cause alot of stress and anxiety. I can't
even imagine what it's going to belike in year two thousand and twenty four
as far as the election cycle.Cannot imagine who's going to be president.
Well, not not only that,but the thing is is that how much

(42:35):
mudslinging. I mean, this isjust to the point now where there's such
a divide between the parties. Imean they don't even talk to one another.
I mean they just kind of spitand spew and hiss, and then
you know, they try to getwhatever messaging that they can, and there's
there just doesn't seem to be anycohesiveness, you know, as far as
what's doing what are we doing rightfor? And have you ever had a

(43:00):
potential presidential candidate not go to adebate? No, I've never seen that
before. No, No. Butyou know the thing is is that's weird
time both of these candidates. Imean, I'm not going to get into
politics because you know, I'm justhoping that some shining star. I'm hoping
Jesus sends us a message. That'swhat I'm hoping. I'm hoping that we

(43:22):
get a message that basically says thisis the guy or the gal. I
mean, there's some there's some peoplethat are coming out of the woods here
that you know, the woman thereand the Republican Party, I can't think
of her name right now, butI think she's held her held her water
here. I think she's done well. Yeah, and the criteria gets more
strict as they go on, andthey drop you know, people would drop

(43:43):
off and the cream will rise tothe well. They're going to start seeing
pretty soon because the money's gonna stopdropping off, right they don't get money
in the war chest, They're gonnastart, you know, going to the
sidelines. But we're gonna take abreak. When we come back. I
want to talk a little bit aboutreverse mortgages because my understanding is as interest
rates go up, they get moremoney in the pot. Yes, yea,
So we'll be right back the eightysix per centers. Do you know

(44:07):
that eighty six percent of the populationhas no defined benefit pension plan. For
most of us, we have totake our life savings and create a paycheck
for the rest of our lives inretirement. What is your plan for retirement
income distribution? How will you manageyour assets during the most critical years of
your lifetime. Nobel Prize winning economistWilliam Sharp has called retirement income distribution the

(44:28):
nastiest, hardest problem in finance.He points out that investment, uncertainty,
and mortality can derail the most carefullaid out retirement income plan. Call our
offices today to start the process ofbuilding your retirement income distribution plan. After
forty one years of being in thefinancial services business, you need to start
taking action to start building your ownpersonal retirement income distribution plan. How do

(44:52):
you do that? To take action? Five eight five eight zero one nine
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If you have any questions, pleasecall in now at one eight hundred eight

(45:12):
two five fifty nine forty nine.That's one eight hundred talk w G y
one eight hundred talk w G.Why we are live in studio to answer
your questions. Baby, baby,you don't know what drew right? This

(45:44):
one you get up, this oneyou get on in the morning. Right,
I know this one. James Brown, you're funny. You're still running.
You're still running? All right,it's it. I've run four days
a week. It keeps me sane. I have to run. I don't
like working out do that. I'llgo anywhere between right now four to eight

(46:08):
miles depending on the day. Well, yeah, it's good run. You
know, during the week you're probablylimited to maybe five or six because you
got to get to work. Butin the weekends, I say those for
a long run. But it's it'sin a lot of people hate running,
and I get it, but forme, it's uh, keeps me sane.
I don't like working out, soI only do that twice a week.

(46:29):
You and I were talking about skinwhen we were off line here because
you have goe love scan. Yeah. What's your family? Your wife's family
has a place in Vermont, yep. My sister in law has a place
in Stratton. Yeah, beautiful.It's really nice. You can literally walk
across the street and you're on themountain. So it's a great location.
Which is great. But what I'vealways liked about skiing is that you don't

(46:54):
have to bring anybody with you,no, meaning that it's a sport that
you can. Like golf, you'reyou got you gotta go out with somebody,
all right, Uh, Skiing youcan throw your skis on the top
of the card and go up toGore or West Mountain or whatever and spend
a day and just kind of thinkthings out. If you if you think

(47:14):
about it outside in the winter,so your body's working hard to keep your
warm burning calories, you sleep betterthat night. You're totally exhausted at night.
It's it. There's so many greatbenefits when you're out there and the
wilderness sort of speak, especially inthe winter. So I've actually gotten into
cold ice plunge baths lately. Yeah, it is absolutely amazing. I want

(47:39):
jeep a little thing for one hundredand twenty dollars. I fill it with
water and ice, I jump init for like three minutes. I'll come
over and throw a bucket. It'snot to be worth it to watch it.
It's all right, Drew. Ofcourse, his family, his his
organization does reverse mortgages. In thelast time we had them on, I

(48:00):
am a major advocate of reverse mortgages. I've seen the success. I've seen
people have smiles on their faces whenthey had stress and anxiety. So don't
pooh pooh it because the screaming monkeystalk about it in a negative way.
Make sure you're educated, you're informed, and you're making a decision based off
your life, not somebody's else bias. So actually, last time I was

(48:24):
on your show, you you hada charity golf function, I believe.
So I did your show, Idon't know a month ago, maybe mailed
out about six packets to your listeners, just information educating them regarding reverse mortgage
is how they work. Because likeanything, whether it's aspirin, whether it's
reverse mortgage, it's not for everybody, right, so just have to get

(48:47):
the facts, and the facts are. It's a great way to tap into
the equity without making a payment,right, without creating another monthly obligation.
Some people have no desire for legacy, right, no kids, And now
I think it's almost you'll have alegacy because they only lend forty five to
fifty percent of value, right,so you're not lending eighty ninety percent,

(49:09):
so only forty five fifty percent ofvalue. But that one hundred thousand dollars
or whatever could big one hundred andfifty thousand dollars. It's a life changing
event. Could could? You couldtake it? You can take it in
a number of ways. You canjust have a line of credit. It's
there, that's your your rainy dayfund. You could get a monthly stipend
from it. You could take alump sum. Do you have an immediate

(49:30):
cash need. You can do allthe above, So you can take it
four different ways depending on your circumstances. Is it state specific or reverse mortgages?
In all fifty all fifty because it'sFHA. It's mainly an FHA product
Federal Housing Administration. So we'll goquickly. We got a phone call which
we got a grab real quick becausecoming up to the top of the hour,
who we got, Zach, Whodo we have? This is Peter

(49:52):
Finiskiana. Oh, hey, Pete, hey doing good morning. Good.
I know you guys are not attorneys, but it's real estate related. What
are the options for two spouses whenone of them after one of them dies
in terms of selling the property.I know there used to be an exemption
that I think it's gone by theboards now, but you shed a little

(50:16):
light on the options for the survivingspouse in terms of liquidating the property.
Well, you have an unlimited maritaldeduction, so that means that you don't
you don't have any tax liability untilthe second spouse passes away. So the
thing is is that there's no taxconsequence as long as you're legally married.

(50:36):
If you're both on the deed,the house just goes into the surviving spouse,
right, nothing changes? Really?Right? Does that help your brother?
And then after the after the secondspouse goes is there that say there's
a child? Comes a step upin basis for them or that become step
up in base Okay, all right, absolutely, all right, that's why

(50:59):
it's thank you, right, okay, great, Yeah, No, we're
not accountants or CPAs, but that'swhat happens. We'll make believes sometimes stay
in the red roof. In lastnight, Joos gonna stick around because I
want to talk a little bit moreon reverse mortgages, and I'm going to
kick him out after the first breakof the second hour. So stay tuned.

(51:22):
This is the Retirement Planning Show,Droyello, Dave Kopeck and of course
the MAINMN Zach on the board.I have any questions, give us a
call one eight hundred Talk WGY,one eight hundred Talk WGY. Welcome to
the Retirement Planning Show with host DaveKopak. In the financial services business for
over thirty five years. Their RetirementPlanning Group LLLC is a registered investment advisor.

(51:47):
David M. Kopak is also aregistered representative of perish kaplan Sterling Investments
Incorporated PKS in their separate capacities.A registered representative of PKS, David M.
Kopac may recommend the implementation of securitiesthrough PKS instead of Retirement Planning Group
LC, Pirst Capital and Sterling Investmentsand retire My Planning Group l LC are

(52:08):
not affiliated companies. Now it's timefor the Retirement Planning Show on w g
Y. Is this David Cassidy,Yeah? Him and Michael Jackson Sunshine Man.

(52:50):
That's the Righteous Brothers. Baby,I'm so clue lost. Do you
go to Vegas at all? Ihaven't many. I used to go every
year for a conference and haven't probablybeen there in ten years. Do you
want to see entertainment? That's whereyou go because there's just so much talent
out there. Julie and I wentout last year and we saw hall of
Oates. No, not holl ofOates. We saw Lionel Richie. Oh

(53:13):
yeah, Lionel Richie. We sawHall and Oates over in Connecticut. Yeah,
but I like that. I'm goingto New Orleans end of October.
Keep it never been none on mytop ten. I have a conference there,
so since Wednesday, Thursday, Fridaything. Yeah, but I've never
been that fun. You're taking yourwife. She's supposed to come, but

(53:37):
my daughter is modeling and she mayhave a modeling shoot, so she may
have to rearrange her travel plans,but I'd like, yeah, I want
her to go with me. I'llbe in sessions all day. But last
weekend you were at parents weekend andI was too. My daughters at Lemoyne,
your daughters at high Point. Yeah, and it was good to see

(53:57):
them kind of blossom and thrive,living their best life. They got their
friends, they having groups. Theyhave no idea. Yeah they will,
they'll, they'll understand it pretty soon. You know. It's the best time
of their lives. They're good kids. We built a good foundation, yea,
so they'll do fine, all right. For our new listeners, it's
a new hour. Thank you forall that participated in our golf outing.

(54:19):
Thank you, thank you, thankyou for the American Cancer Society. Can't
thank you enough. We had agreat day, great weather, Drew was
there, We had a whole bunchof friends and as I said, you
know, we've got loved ones Kellyand John, a cousin and also our
maid of honor and our wedding,and they're going through a horrible time right
now. So their prayers for them, for Kelly and John are welcome.

(54:39):
And for the people up at McGregorCountry Club, thank you so much.
For what you did for my cousinKaren. When you go to the turn
now you'll see a little shop there. It's not a shop, it's a
snack shop with a beautiful deck andchairs and umbrellas. And they did that
in honor and my cousin Karen andher husband John will Bears was up there.

(55:00):
Just a wonderful day. And peoplereally do amazing things sometimes a lot
of times you just don't hear alot of people do things that they don't
want to be noted or have anykind of public perception that they did it.
So thank you means a lot toour family. I know that much.

(55:21):
And like I said, every yearwe do a golf outing for the
American Cancer Society. It's something that'svery close to my heart. I lost
a lot of family members and lovedones from cancer, as probably everyone that
is listening to this show has.I've got great clients. When I say
that I've got I don't think I'velaughed as much as I've laughed then Thursday.

(55:42):
Just great friends, great clients.It means a lot to me.
I think it means a lot tothem now. And Jimmy Corkran, who
is the point person on this againknocked the ball out of the ballpark.
And then of course everybody else,Nico and Lisa and Brenda and if Julie
and you go right through the laundrylist, my son Christopher William. But

(56:05):
thanks to all of our sponsors,I missed the car from Leah. Just
missed. Jeez. I find thathard to believe. It was hard to
believe. You must let me,let me, let me ask you a
quick question here. You know,this is typically the quarter. You know,

(56:28):
the S and P five hundred wasdown five percent, the Russell two
thousand was down six percent. Right, this is just a month of September.
It was a lousy month. Butwe're going into the quarter which has
historically been the best month, bestquarter of the year, in October,
October, November. It wasn't thebig wasn't the crash in October yes,
years ago sea but over historically.Yeah, I'll never forget that. We're

(56:52):
down I think twenty five percent oneday. Yeah, people jumped out of
buildings. I said it was crazy. It was. I remember going in
the met I was working at painWebber a wolf Road. I remember going
into the men's room and some ofthe option traders that were there. Yeah,
we're basically puking, Oh my god, because they had lost millions.

(57:16):
That's when they stopped. You knowwhat, you know what being naked puts
this? Yeah, you know whatthat means. Yeah, there's no downs,
there's no no limits, no end, there's no limit. Right,
you just keep on losing and losingand losing and losing, and you got
to close out the position the nextday. Right, what does that mean?
You better have some bank big money. If you don't, you're in

(57:37):
trouble. Right. They that's whenI think they stopped because of that crash.
They stopped making windows open and buildingsand high rise buildings. That was
some bad stuff that went on thatday. You know, the financial markets
are an opportunity that allows you toparticipate in some of the major you're you're

(58:01):
you're an owner in all actuality ofthese corporations, Apple, IBMG, whatever,
you know, whatever, Which onedo you want to talk about?
But with that comes, you know, pluses and minuses, And the thing
is is that you have to becareful that you're you're allocating money properly,
especially in hedge positions such as optionsor derivatives. What happened to us in

(58:28):
the financial crisis. Most people don'tunderstand it, but you know, go
watch the the what is it theBig Short or the Great Short Short,
Big Short? Watch that movie.It made me sick. Yeah, let's
go to Paul in Clifton Park morning. Paul. Are you there? No,
Paul, Paul left? Okay,you can call back Paul. We'll

(58:51):
pick up. Is that one deadspot on Maul Road? Yeah, there
is. I know where there's adead spot which I hit all the time.
You're coming out of Saratoga by thetrack exit fourteen. Ye are getting
up whenever when you're when you're gettingon the north Way, Yeah, it's
dead right. They have the mobile, they have the stewarts. Yeah,
you go around the bend and book. You gotta wait till money. Where

(59:13):
are you? My wife's wife's thinking, I'm hanging up better all the time,
hanging up money. No, I'mcoming on. Last time I did
hang up by this one isn't allright. So higher interest rates with reverse
mortgages mean you get more money.Doesn't seem possible. But what does that
mean? Well, it's it's acatch joint two. So higher if you

(59:36):
have a reverse mortgage currently a lineof credit option on the reverse mortgage.
That line of credit will actually growby current interest rates. If you're trying
to obtain a reverse mortgage for thefirst time, less money will be available
to you because they're anticipating a higherinterest rate interest accumulation. So it's a
catch twenty two. So the keyis to open the line of credit,

(59:59):
get it established, because unlike aline of credit that set you and I
would have on our home, ifyou get if you get one hundred thousand
dollars line of credit, that's it. You're not getting one hundred and one
on a river smortgage. You startout with one hundred thousand dollars line of
credit. It's going to grow everyyear by five to six seven percent based
on current interest rates, so you'llcontinue to get growth on that line.
What is an interest rate, doyou know? I think it's about seven

(01:00:20):
percent right now. Okay, soyou get some nice growth. Okay.
We got Tim in burn morning.Tim morning, how you guys doing.
We're doing the day in paradise.We just love one another. Go ahead.
I had a quick question. I'mmy kind of new to the four
one K process. I got anaccount with Merrill Lynch, what kind of

(01:00:45):
funs would you recommend that are apretty good return by not too risky either.
Well, let me ask you aquestion. When you participated in the
four oh one K, is therea representative that you're talking to or an
eight hundred telephone number that you cancall in order to get guidance guidance or

(01:01:06):
did you do that yet or you'rejust you're just getting your toe in the
water now. Uh. We basicallydid that when I started this, but
you know, quite frankly, everythingwas so no, you know what I
mean, I wasn't really Yeah,well, did they do did they did
they do a risk Did you doa risk tolerance questionnaire and r TQ where

(01:01:29):
it basically says you're an aggressive investor, you're a conservative investor, you're a
balanced, you know, you're moderate. Did you ever do one of those
forms where you fill out or youfind out what's your personality for a risk?
Uh? No, no, no, Yeah, Well I'll tell you
what we have. We have wehave a service that we bring to the

(01:01:52):
table through Fidelity, not through MerrillLynch of course, that allows us to
help individuals that are in a fouroh one K program through not only with
Fidelity now, but we also haveit with Vanguard where we can act in
a capacity, in a capacity,what I would do to be honest with
you, and I'm not trying topooh pool your question. I am a

(01:02:15):
big believer that working with a financialadvisor is much more beneficial than trying to
do it by yourself. So whoeveris the plan representative, whoever you have
that represents the four oh one Kprogram for your company, I would call
him Monday and say, hey,listen, I need to have a chat
with you because my wife and Ineed to feel comfortable with our asset allocation.

(01:02:39):
Right, Does that make sense?Yeah, yeah, I'll put that
on the calendar to do. Yeah, because the thing is is that you
don't want to be allocating money toan investment program that really is not suitable
for you. You know the oldsaying, you know, burden hands better
than two in a bush. Youknow the old tortoise in the hair.
Sometimes you know the tortoise is goingto win the race. Slow and steady.

(01:03:02):
Maybe that's who you are, Slowand steady. You don't want pedal
to the metal. Also has todo with or somewhere in the middle,
maybe what's your Yeah, that's theother question. How how old are you?
Tim? Uh fifty five? Yeah, so you got one maybe another
ten years. You want to goage sixty five? Is that your number?

(01:03:24):
Yeah, so you've got to getpost security. I'm in that group
where we got to be sixty seven. Yeah, kind of five plan full
retirement age. Yeah. Obviously yourhealth factor is a big factor in there.
But well, we want because we'reon radio, I don't care if

(01:03:44):
you've got ten dollars or ten million. We'll help you. If you call
my office and you want some assistance, I can get into more specifics because
I'm not going to get into specificson the radio. Okay, right,
okay, So why did you Whydin't you give me? Why don't you
give me a quality office? Andat least maybe I can direct you in
another direction that would be beneficial foryour family. Yeah, all right,

(01:04:10):
thank you very much, have agood day, you two, sir,
God bless Thank you so much.I've always loved over the years. You
mentioned Vanguard Funds. Yeah, notthey're amazing. They are passed away a
year or two ago. But hewas one of the brightest minds and amazing
used for years well, think aboutit. You know, when you and

(01:04:30):
I first got into the business,the fee structure was crazy. It was
brutal, it was insane. Yeah, it was not good for that.
I mean we were we were,to be honest with you, we were
hosing people. Okay. It wasn'tour structure, it was Walt and we
didn't have the ability. I meanunless you were an institutional investor. You
were retail investor. You paid retailcommissions, right right, Those days are

(01:04:54):
one though, right, Drew.It's the way it should be now.
Yeah, the same thing in thebond markets with mortgages. Sure back in
like you talked about the big short. Yeah, it's not like anybody was
doing illegal things, just like whenwe were both stockbrokers way back in the
day, not doing anything illegal.It's just the way the system was.
We played in the system. Peopledon't understand this because they never put their

(01:05:17):
arms around it. They felt itand they had the impact and the hurt.
You had one hundred to one leverage. Yeah, I mean it was
like when I say, goofy,and if this thing imploded and went backwards,
you better have the ability to hitthe button. You had. Investment
banking, hedge funds. Right,the closer they were to Wall Street with

(01:05:42):
their fiber, you hadn't moving closerto the exchange. These huge warehouses with
all these computers for milliseconds, doyou realize that? Yeah, that's crazy.
Milliseconds, that's crazy. And thething is, people say, why
is there so much volatility when youbuy baskets of stocks ets? They don't.

(01:06:05):
There's no discretion between whether they're sellingVan or new vant Guard, but
Apple or the video or if they'reby Facebook whatever. It is the magnificent
seven. Right now, when youhit that basket of stock, you're selling
all the etf right, you're notbuying, You're not selling, you know,

(01:06:29):
just one or handful of them.All right. So when they say
why does the market move as aggressively? Now, why is there is?
To me? That's the answer becausewithin milliseconds you can basically trade hundreds of
millions of not billions of dollars billions, right, I agree? All right,
we're gonna take a break. Openlines. Do you have any questions
or comments, you just feel likeyou want to have a chat with somebody,

(01:06:53):
Give us a call one eight hundredtalk WGY one eight hundred eight two
five fifty nine forty nine. Ifyou're at the Gulf outing, you want
to call tell us what your experiencewas. I know, Bruce, you're
listening. Bruce and his gang fromAlbany, his gang. He's a great
guy. Frankie Dier, he's outthere somewhere, I know, floating around
the swarning. Let's play with Jim'sbrother Jerry. You did a great guy.

(01:07:15):
Yeah, owned a business and hisfriend John. Yeah, we had
a great foursome. I said,Barry Poker, we're gonna be out next
week. I talk about the showcase. Yeah, Barry was on their matter
of fact, Brian McKinnon's brother Artwent to school with Barry. Oh,
no kidding. So we'll be rightback the eighty six percenters. Do you
know that eighty six percent of thepopulation has no defined benefit pension plan.
For most of us, we haveto take our life savings and create a

(01:07:38):
paycheck for the rest of our livesin retirement. What is your plan for
retirement income distribution? How will youmanage your assets during the most critical years
of your lifetime. Nobel Prize winningeconomist William Sharp has called retirement income distribution
the nastiest, hardest problem in finance. He points out that investment, uncertainty
and mortality can derail the most carefullaid out retirement income plan. Call our

(01:08:01):
offices today to start the process ofbuilding your retirement income distribution plan. After
forty one years of being in thefinancial services business, you need to start
taking action to start building your ownpersonal retirement income distribution plan. How do
you do that? To take action? Five one eight five eight zero one
nine one nine. That's five oneeight, five eight zero one nine one

(01:08:23):
nine or RPG retire on the web. Don't procrastinate, motivate to start building
your retirement income distribution plan five oneeight five eight zero one nine one nine.
If you have any questions, pleasecall in now at one eight hundred
eight two five fifty nine forty nine. That's one eight hundred talk WGY,
one eight hundred talk WGY. Weare live in studio to answer your questions.

(01:08:47):
Five been a search and all thiswhat world finally from? I thought
it was meaning that music, butthis isn't even before my time. That's
why I did it. I justwant to show you old Paul. You

(01:09:11):
there, he's got the RADI yougotta turn the radio off. Paully because
we're listening to Paul. Are youthere? I hear you. I guess
we lost Bye, Paully, callback. You gotta call back. Zach's

(01:09:36):
gotta tell him to turn the radiodown. He's groov into the tunes.
Man grooving into the tunes. Allright. It sounds like Paul is having
a nice Saturday morning. Drew andI are talking. There's an unbelievable complex
going up in Saratoka Springs, NewYork, the Delphi, and they're doing
the condos up there, and ifyou price it out, it's about twelve

(01:10:00):
hundred dollars let's square foot for realestate, and it comes with all the
bells and whistles, and if you'reparking underground, all the amenities at the
door you gotten. You have theability to have all access to uh,
the Delphi Hotel and all of theirstuff. So did he turn his Polly

(01:10:21):
go ahead? Yeah, I'm herethere you are? Brother? All right?
Okay yo, pa? All right? Four ten four, come in,
come in, come in. Yeah. Really hey, quick quick question
for you. I'm retired and havemy funds in a fidelity account. I

(01:10:45):
sort of manage him on my ownand right now in terms of diversification.
I'm about sixty forty and the questionI have for you guys is, h
I've been doing some research and doingin terms of market stuff. You know,
obviously I'm looking for the long term, not a quick hit. But
I'm seeing that, you know,people are saying maybe moving a little bit

(01:11:08):
more towards bonds and you know,safer you know how you were talking about
it earlier. You know, thebonds and what have you. The safer
kind of things are returning a higherpercentage right now. And I just wanted
to get your take on your advicein terms of maybe taking some money out
of the more aggressive things and putit in the bonds. And here's the

(01:11:30):
question I got for it. Areyou using that pot of money for income
or using it as a randy dayfund a legacy? I mean, what
is the destination of the money.Uh? Yeah, I peel off a
little bit every quarter to you know, fund my income. Okay, so
it's good. It's some of itis necessary, but not a lot of

(01:11:50):
it in order to qualify for correctYeah, only, like you know,
not not much at all. Well. I used to trade bonds, okay,
fairly aggressively when I was at painhowever. So the thing is is
that anytime you can get the yieldsthat are out there right now six seven
eight percent, depending on the investmentgrade quality of the portfolio that you want,

(01:12:14):
it's kind of hard to beat thosetypes of returns as far as the
yield off the portfolio or total return. And we're talking about guaranteed rates.
I mean right now, you canget a six percent guaranteed rate right now,
and you know a lot of peoplesay, you know, I'm comfortable
with that. I don't need toshoot for the moon. And then maybe
you're reverse I'm assuming that the sixtymaybe the sixty percent that you have in

(01:12:39):
equity, you just reverse it.You put sixty percent fixed income, and
you act your heads. You canget a little bit more aggressive because the
yield off the portfolio. Do theother forty percent in equity have some of
that and dividend pain stocks and someof the high flyers, and I think
you know, your blended rate mightbe four and a half or five percent
on your portfolio. And you gota smile on your face because as you

(01:13:00):
have more than enough cash flow togive your creature comforts. Okay, yeah,
that makes sense. Send. Yeah, so I guess directionally, I'm
moving at the right direction. Ihear you're saying that. Yeah, I
think so. You know what Imean, you know, the Fed,
I don't know if they're gonna airyou know, if they're if they're coming
back in November. They anticipate Novemberis when the increase is going to come

(01:13:25):
from the Fed. I mean,that's how they're pricing it right now in
the futures market. If they comeback with a statement that says we're not
done, and the bond market's probablygonna get kicked a little bit. But
are we ninety percent there as faras the Fed, I think we are.
What do you think I gotta believeor at the top of the peak
or close to it? Yeah?Yeah, so I don't think you'll get

(01:13:46):
kicked too bad if that should happen, right, And what's your net return?
What are you looking for? What'syour anticipated net return that you're looking
for on the portfolio? Oh?I think well you already summarize a little
bit. I think four to sixa year, you know, not the
crazy I mean, you know I'vegot a slush fund that I mess with
it. Yeah, you know,not find uh what were those things you're

(01:14:08):
talking about there in the bottom therethe options with no bottom, I'm not
doing that. Don't go there.Don't go there unless you want to get
the you get a wife. Butyeah, in the Fidelity fund, I've
got the Broad Bond and uh Gilliard. I think those two are available to
me. And those uh you knowthe Gilliards. Uh, it's it's rock

(01:14:29):
solid and the Broad Broad's actually pickingup as you said, with the bonds.
You know, what I would sayto you is that, you know,
if you want some help and assistance, we do work through the Fidelity
platform. We're happy to have achat with you. But bottom line gets
down to is that if you feelcomfortable driving it and being the captain of
the ship, you know, stickstick, stick with it, and just
realize is that you know you're ina pretty sweet spot right now for a

(01:14:51):
fixed income. Yeah, okay,good advice, Thanks guys. Thanks brother,
Yea, this is probably life chainJane altering at these levels. Fam
retirement. My buddy what he whatare he call him? To tell me
how warm it is down there today? Bobby? Yeah, stop crashing my
Florida, would you? What's goingon? Brother? I think you know,

(01:15:16):
here's the secret here. Northeast Floridais the place to be. Yeah,
why you know? I s Ihad a guy sat next to the
other day we were shooting the breeze, and I said, where are you
headed? Because I could see thathe was heading out of town. I
was at Stewart's and you know hewas he was going to St. Augustine.

(01:15:40):
I said, no kidding. Isaid, I got a client down
there that lives in that area andabsolutely loves it, So you're right.
I think you're one hundred percent right. His son lives down there, and
he said he wouldn't live anywhere else. He's been down there now for about
six years and absolutely loves it andabsolutely loves it. Three fifty six Agallon,
Yeah, well we beat you.Zach just told me it's three three

(01:16:01):
thirty six. I don't know.I think his wife at her glasses on
cricket. How's the family, Bob, everybody's good. Yeah, we're doing
all right, We're doing all right. It's uh, there's so much to
talk about, but yeah, spelling, building materials. So the cost of

(01:16:23):
everything is absolutely ridiculous. Yeah,I know. Yeah, there's still a
lot of money down here. Imean, the amount of money people spend
on their gardens, their lawns andHalloween decorations blows my mind. Oh you
still got holloween decorations on hair offact, I went to Sam's the other
day. They already got the Christmasstuff out. So we we just good

(01:16:45):
that this week. Yeah, wegot one minute, Bob before we have
to go. But I want toask you a question. Did you see
the football score of your son?No, I didn't. They crushed him.
They crushed him, right, yeah, your wife's son, your your
stepson. Right. Uh, thisis the coach, it's the coach at

(01:17:06):
CBA and they they're just having ahell of a season again. The guys
an unbelievable coach, great coach,have an amazing quarterback. They do hear
that second daughter's heading for a Universityof South Florida. So good God bless.
Listen, Bobby, I got abreak, I got a heartbreak for
the news. Give me a callat the office and we'll shoot the breeze,

(01:17:29):
my good man, and give mybest to your beautiful bride in the
family. Okay, okay, Godbless all right, Uh, there's another
great client. I know, Bobby. I've actually talked to him a few
times. Ye, So, okay, we gotta say goodbye here, it's
the bottom of the hour. Iguess Drew's gonna stay with me for the
whole two hours. His wife's notcalling me. Get home, Get home,

(01:17:54):
and get home second I can outrunyou. Yeah, having to kick
me out. Alright, bye,we'll be on the other side. Well,
you g y, all of theseare all right, We're back.

(01:18:26):
I saw a friend of mine yesterday. I haven't talked to him in years.
We're at Karen's. He's a memberup at McGregor Country Club, and
we were talking about how quickly timegoes by and just how things change.
And we sat there and we kepton talking about all the people that have

(01:18:49):
passed away in the last few years, and it's really pretty amazing. Sometimes
as you get longer in the toothand you realize is that you know,
this really is a quick trip.So I'm always kind of flabbergassed that when
people come in and have a chatwith us and I hear, let me

(01:19:15):
think about it. I'll go homeand I'll talk about it a little bit
more. And then they procrastinate andthey wait and they don't do anything,
and then there's an event, andthen when the event happens, there's nothing
you can do because the horse isalready out of the barn. So I
think if there's anything, you know, we hear a lot of messaging out

(01:19:38):
there, Drew. You know,I know that you understand this because you've
worked in the investment business and youalso understand the insurance business that you know
there's really no particular time that's goodto do things the particular time that it's
specific to you. Right, youagree, Right, I think there's there's

(01:20:00):
in my life and you could probablyrelate to this. There's a couple of
things that have to have to haveto hold is your father when he died
fifty four, and so you're talkingabout let's take his life for example,
and this is why I am theway I am. A fifty three who
won the powerlifting championship for fifty andover. Right, you know it was
the orthopedic surgery and worked out everyday. It wasn't a huge guy.

(01:20:20):
He's like five eight five eight anda half, but he loved working out.
He's in great shape. A yearlater, right, yep, the
health plex and a year later hepassed away. So within twelve month period
of time. He were I'm from, you know, amazing physical shape to
not here anymore. So I thinkthere's three. There's two things that are

(01:20:42):
I think from you know, Iwas in my late twenties at the time,
that are super important your will andlife insurance. Right. Don't procrastinate
those two things, absolutely because thatcauses a lot of problems. And you
may think you're Captain America, kingof the world, You're never leaving the
earth. It's not the case.Oh my brother in law, Steve,

(01:21:03):
who you knew. Steve went tothe doctor's office, dentist, and Dennis
says to him, you got lumpthere. You better go see the doctor.
You went to see the doctor.Doctor says, I think you're okay.
That looks like an abscess. Wentback to the doctor the dentist,
and the dentist says, that's notan abscess. You know, I'm gonna

(01:21:25):
take some photographs of it, youknow, send him back to the doctor.
In a year later, he wasdead. Yeah, so a year
later he was dead. So thething is is that don't procrastinate. Yea.
And when you talk about life insurance, you know, I say this
to people all the time they think, you know, I'm a life insurance
This is why it really bothers mewhen I hear people talk negative about life

(01:21:46):
insurance. They really have no ideawhat the hell they're talking about. But
the thing is is that life insurancecan be used in all three phases of
your life to protect a family,a right to protect a spouse, and
then a legacy to the next generation. Yep, right, and you've seen

(01:22:10):
it. You've seen the power ofit. I have it now. Did
your father? I don't want toget into your personal stuff. Did your
father have enough life insurance? Probablynot enough enough? He had, he
had good assets, but but obviouslywhen you're a fifty four you're not planning
on leaving this planet, right,And when he wants and he wants more,
he can't get more. How's thatright? How's that supposed to last

(01:22:32):
for forty years? Thirty years?Right? Your father was a doctor,
so there was probably more than enoughassets for him to buy a big old
term insurance policy. Yep, right, yeah, totally. But you think
I think a lot of doctors areyou know, they think they're God sometimes
and they're never going to leave.And he thought same thing, So yeah,

(01:22:55):
but those two things are I thinksuper important if I could peg anything,
and those are easy to do andfairly cheap to do. Sure,
we got a phone call. We'regoing to go to Northville, beautiful area.
Ed. Good morning, Yeah,good morning. How are you guys
doing. I'm doing fantastic. How'severything in Northville? It's kind of cool
and chilly, but I'm looking forwardto next week should be a beauty Well,

(01:23:19):
I just saw the weather forecast.I'm going to take my bad suit
back out of the drawer. Thereyou go, Okay, I have I
have a friend, she's a teacher, and she wanted me look over her
four h three B with E cutabowl, and I thought the expenses looked
kind of high at point nine onepercent. And also when I looked at

(01:23:41):
what her guaranteed interest rate was,it was three point two five percent.
But what really floored me when I, let's see, it was about three
days ago when I looked at heryear to date game, it was four
point three nine percent. I managemy own portfolio and I'm up a percent
this year. So I was wonderingif it was possible for her to do

(01:24:05):
an in service roll over to adifferent manager. Yes, but it's based
off of the TPA. So thatmeans the plan administrator has a selection through
the school district of the plans thatare available. If there's a Fidelity or

(01:24:26):
Vanguard or any of those horses thatare in the stable, probably a better
selection, not only as far asthe cost, but also the gig the
guaranteed investment contract depending on how theyset it up through the school district.
You want to take a look atthat too. But historically, my good

(01:24:47):
man, those plans, the fouror three b's have been very expensive when
you look at outside the box whatyou could do on a personal level.
Okay, so I'm not doing areal apples to apples comparison when I look
at my portfolio versus hers, noteven close because I'm assuming. What I'm

(01:25:13):
assuming is that who do you I'mnot going to ask you for your selections
and all that. Who is yourVanguard? So use Vanguard? So you
have low cost, self directed,unlimited investment options. And she's inside a
box with high expenses and limited investmentoptions, right right, So you can't

(01:25:34):
you can't do an apple to apple. The only thing that you can do
is on a historical basis. Lookat the funds that have been selected or
the planned providers, the ones thatshe can utilize through the school district.
And you know, fifty nine anda half, you understand is a magical
number. First, right, Itold her that. So she's over the

(01:25:57):
age of fifty nine and a half, she can take that money quality Retirement
Planning Group and we can show hera bunch of selections that are going to
be probably much more. I mean, right now we can get over five
and a half percent guaranteed in agovernment in a treasury. Yeah, I
mean, that's beautiful. It isa beautiful thing. It is a beautiful

(01:26:17):
She's only fifty five, so shedoesn't qualify for that. It is it
is all of her money in oneplan, or is she has she had
multiple plans where she's got like oneor two plans, meaning that she left
one speed and she's got I thinkeight different plans that I'm looking at right
now within for the different investment options. Okay, yeah, I mean it

(01:26:41):
looks like it's certified. But goodnessthat that low of a return. And
I think this year has been fabulousright up to these last two weeks,
but this is expected in September.The last two weeks are almost always bad,
So I don't have a problem withthat. I was just shocked at
such a low return, and Iwould like to her end up doing better
because at fifty five you don't havethat many years left to try to build

(01:27:04):
up your saving. Yeah. Well, if she wants some help, have
her give us a buzz. We'reone of thing happy to talk to people
and discuss it. Maybe we canfind a solution through her plan provider.
But you know, the thing isis that it sounds like you're more of
an equity investor than fixed income orgigs because if you're down, you're up
sixteen you're almost matching the SP five. Yeah, like I say, I'm

(01:27:28):
up eleven percent. But the onething I'll say, you're right Vanguard has
low expenses, but their customer serviceis really poor. I mean it seems
like after John Boldo died they decidedto go overseas with their representatives. And
besides the English barrier problem, it'salso the actual connection of the telephone.
And I find it very frustrating here. And here's a magical solution. We

(01:27:54):
have the ability to work through Vanguardand give you all those investment options and
be your plan provider and do allthe things that you're looking for. You
know, the thing is is thatyou know I agree with you one hundred
percent everything that you just said,I agree with one hundred percent. When
people call my office, they getwhat they get a human. They don't
have to hit beep beep boop,boop, beep beep. And you know,

(01:28:15):
I'm sorry I can't take your phonecall right now. Leave a number.
I mean, you know there's athere's a value out of proposition there.
But if we can help or haveher give us a buzz right now.
The other thing you said, somebodytold you that in Florida you can't
get homeowner's insurance anymore. It's eitherhomeowners or the flood insurance is only with
one insurance company right now because becauseof insurances federal government. Well that then

(01:28:44):
it's a homeowners insurance. Then Italked to the gentleman yesterday. He came
in my office and he said thatthe cost of insurance in Florida right now
is through the roof. Well,yeah, a lot of policies have doubled,
but they're still insurers down there thatwill insure. It's going to be
expensive and if you can't find anybodyto ensure you, you go with citizens.
What is a state sponsored insurance company. It's defensive, but you can

(01:29:10):
still get it. And the otherthing he had told you people don't have
to have car insurance down there,that's not true. The scary part is
people can get away with a carinsurance policy with as low as ten thousand
dollars in coverage. And that's scarywhen you think a lot of people are
driving around, you know, seventyeighty thousand dollar for at F one's fifties,
you hit one of them, youwant to have more than ten thousand

(01:29:33):
dollars of coverage. Well, hesaid, the problem is is that you
know somebody hits you and has inadequateinsurance down there. He says, good
luck trying to get the money right, because if they're only going with ten
grand, they got nothing else.It's exactly right. All right, Thank
you sir. Okay, I'll letyou go. God bless. We got
another caller. We have Tony andGlenville. Hi, Tony, good morning,

(01:29:59):
Dave. Listen. I want,first of all, I want to
thank you guys for having provided thisbeautiful service on Sunday and Saturday and Sunday
morning. Uh for a lot ofus that you know, we take a
shower when we come from work.You know what I mean, because I
know you grew up on a farm. You know exactly what I mean.
That's what the mud room was builtfor it. So you know, a
lot of us are very limited knowledgeof when it comes to uh investment or

(01:30:23):
you know four to one K.I'm in my fifties also, but if
I can give some advice to thegentleman they called earlier that just got into
four to one K is that I'malso in h Merrill Lynch, but in
past several years, just like Isaid, of having limited knowledge, the
best thing to do is sign onto the plan, into Merrill Lynch and
actually look at the options. Theonly problem is a lot of them they

(01:30:44):
give you limited options. That's agood thing, but then also that's a
bad thing. And that's and thenhe'll bring you with those you know,
if you provide them with a freeservice. Really because it's out of out
of your time, it's not outof uh you know Merrill Lynch time is
the fact that uh that you know, he gives you what's available in the
plan. A lot of these placesthey put you in a you know,

(01:31:08):
twenty thirty two or twenty thirty orwhatever plan, and it's you know,
and you really have to look atthe other options too, because the target
generally target dates the target exactly thetarget plans. Yeah, I've been doing
about eight and a half. Ilooked it up this morning actually, just
how to come off the computer.I'm listening to you. I've been doing

(01:31:28):
about eight eight and a half,well eight point one six as of this
morning till return. So I mean, he's not really doing that bad,
beautiful, excellent, you know,But is that I thank you again?
Is that the history of your portfolioor a year to date? Which one
do you mean? No, ayear to date to date? The history
is bringing me down to about fourand a half going back to seven years

(01:31:49):
that I've been in it. Sothere's my my message to people today.
If you listen to the part ofthe show that I said, if you
can go out and get five orsix percent guaranteed right now, and you're
what we what we call the redzone, you're four to five years away
from retirement. No one, noone has a crystal ball on a black
Swan event and when it's going tohappen again. You know, the old

(01:32:11):
saying a burden hands better than thetwo and a bush and bottom line gets
sound. So I just think that, you know, when you get in
that critical time where you don't wantto go backwards anymore. With these yields
that are out there right now andguarantees, I think you're foolish not to
take some of it and put itinto the safe haven. The well,
that's that's that's why I trying tomanage it myself and with a little bit

(01:32:32):
of help with Merrill Lynch. Youknow, I'm into I DOT bonds uh
twenty percent right now into options andthe rest of it into uh the uh
you know, the target plane sothat you know the safe haven is are
the bonds to what I see?Yea, well bonds though, bonds bonds

(01:32:56):
right now? You know. Thething is is that get them while they're
hot. That's what I would say, you know, when the guy goes
by and get them while they're hot. The vendor at the hot dog,
get them wile they're hot. Well, bonds right now, get them while
they're hot because they're hot. Yeah, all right, hey, hey listen,
I'm glad I'm God that we're helpingyou out and God bless you.

(01:33:16):
Thank you, sir away. Allright, we're gonna take our final break
when we come back on to summarizea little bit with Droello and talk a
little bit about what's going on inthe economy and what his crystal ball for
the last quarter the eighty six percenters. Do you know that eighty six percent
of the population has no defined benefitpension plan. For most of us,
we have to take our life savingsand create a paycheck for the rest of

(01:33:40):
our lives in retirement. What isyour plan for retirement income distribution? How
will you manage your assets during themost critical years of your lifetime. Nobel
Prize winning economists William Sharp has calledretirement income distribution the nastiest, hardest problem
in finance. He points out thatinvestment, uncertainty and mortality. Can you
rail the most careful laid out retirementincome plan? Call our offices today to

(01:34:03):
start the process of building your retirementincome distribution plan. After forty one years
of being in the financial services business, you need to start taking action to
start building your own personal retirement incomedistribution plan. How do you do that?
To take action five one eight,five eight zero one nine one nine.
That's five one eight five eight zeroone nine one nine or RPG retire

(01:34:26):
on the web. Don't procrastinate,motivate to start building your retirement income Distribution
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any questions, please call in nowat one eight hundred eight two five fifty
nine forty nine. That's one eighthundred talk WGY, one eight hundred talk
WGY. We are live in studioto answer your questions. Baby, all

(01:35:18):
right, we're back. They stillsee him dancing. I'll tell you that
was a great show in eric City. And all my wife's she's probably dancing
in the bathroom right now, gettingready for her day. She's listening to
the show. All right, let'ssummarize here a little bit, you know,
right, we get a lot ofDad in research, of course through

(01:35:40):
fidelity. One of the things thatit was very striking to me is what
this gentleman. We worked with amajor industry, going in and doing presentations,
and the common theme that we hearover and over again is that,
you know, I don't like callingthe help desk because it's problematic. I

(01:36:00):
have a hard time understanding the people. They're not unsure, they're off shore.
Uh. You know, I hateto say it. You get sometimes
what you pay for. You know, there's an old saying right, yeah,
totally yeah. How many times haveyou gone the cheap route and made
out? Not too many? No? No, I mean there is a

(01:36:23):
value to the value added proposition.I you know, it's funny to say
that, but the longer you live, the longer you realize it. And
even when you're buying anything, evena retail item, you know, you
you pay for something, they backit up, they guarantee it, they
replace it if it's faulty, andit's like like anything in life, you
gotta buy quality. Plus. Ithink customer service in general in this country

(01:36:47):
at the moment, has gone inthe tank. I think, you know,
one of the things that we stressat the retirement playing group is that
when that phone rings, we're pickingit up. Answer the phone, Answer
the phone. I mean we haveenough staff. We're ever nine one one
where somebody can't reach into this.Say even me, if I here ring
two or three times, and ifI'm tied up in something, I'll reach
over and I'll grab the phone.And everyone in my staff. I know

(01:37:09):
that, you know, from Lisato Jim to Brenda, you know,
the whole staff. Nico, We'renot you know, we're gonna let the
phone keep on ringing with people sittingon the sidelines. So we don't even
have landlines. People have my cellphone. It's it's just it's it's to
me. It's called me, textme seven days a week. It's always
amazing to me with technology today.If if you're if you're not getting back

(01:37:30):
to the client and there's something wrongwith the system because there's more than enough
ways between a text or an emailwhatever. Cell phone, cell phone good.
So I agree, you know,interest rates have surged. Some would
say that we're at the peak.Some would say that they still have a
little bit more destruction to go,and they do do financial destruction when they

(01:37:56):
go down this path. So thecommentary basically right now suggesting monetary policy remain
restrictive. You agree. It seemslike it. Ye had all the FED
speakers come out over the last coupleof weeks, especially after last FOMC meeting,
and the consensus was there could beanother hike in the cards. They

(01:38:18):
could hold rates in a restrictive categoryfor an extended period of time. Obviously
that's that's not good, but that'swhat they're saying. They'll overshoot, as
they always have done. I thinkFED chair Powell even said that a couple
of meetings ago that you know,we always go too far. But I

(01:38:40):
think that's in a weird way,what they're trying to do. I think
they feel that a little short termpain might help the long term. And
when I say short term pain,you're talking about you know, people losing
jobs, unemployment market, you know, softening considerably. I feel like that's
you know, it was inflation.Now they got inflation down from nine to
three. Now, I feel likethey're more focused on the jobs. In

(01:39:02):
October sixth's almost a week from youhonestly think that that's an honest figure.
No, I don't think it's close. No, you'd have to be like
about one point six on average toget to two. They're trying to do.
You know, I want, Iwant cowboy. You know that I'm
a country boy, gun cowboy.Steak one fifty out there. Don't bring

(01:39:29):
up food because I'm hungry, butI got an f one fifty out there.
It's one hundred dollar bill to fillthat thing right now. Oh yeah,
it's one hundred dollars bill if I'mlow, if I'm one, you
know, because I propractice. Ialways procrastinate because I don't want to look
at the sticker. So it's onehundred dollars bill. You go to the
grocery store, you get two bagsof groceries, you know, buy meat.

(01:39:53):
I don't know what the hell's goingon with meat meat, right,
you know? I say to Daveover if Fred the butcher, like,
you know, these coming from likegolden cows. I mean, what kind
of how are you getting here nowthat we're you know, we're paying these
kind of meat prices and eat chuckles. But I understand everything. I don't
think three percent is even close toinflation. I don't think I think that.

(01:40:15):
And that's just a made up that'sjust a made up number. They
have this two percent thing that theywant to get to. That's not a
rule, that's not a law,that's not in the by laws. That's
just that's just something they came up. I think Greenspan might have came up
with that, you know, thirtyyears ago. So I don't think that's
I don't even think that's realistic.I think you'd have to put the economy
really in the tank to get downto two percent. So it was the

(01:40:38):
last time you were in Washington,DC ages ago, probably a teenager.
You've been down there. You've gotall these black cars running around with you
know, sirens going on, allthese other cars. These guys are so
far out. I mean, whatthey ought to do is they ought to
take Washington and move it somewhere sothey get out of that bubble, so
they understand exactly what's happening to thepublic, all right, you know,

(01:40:59):
because I think they lose touch withall the lobbyists that are, you know,
bringing them down there, and they'rehaving the big fat cat meals and
the you know, And I thinkwe need we need the FED governor to
be an economist. I don't thinkhaving a FED governor as a lawyer of
his an attorney, is the rightperson to be running our FED policy.
It just doesn't make sense. Youwant to see scary graph, And I'm

(01:41:25):
not trying to send the fear toanybody here, but this is a reality
check. Take a graph of hugeyour projections of our deficit and entitlement programs.
You want to get scared. Takea look at that. Well,
when I say that there's a trainwreck coming and a day of reckoning,
it's kind of happened sooner than later. And I'll tell you what it's coming

(01:41:46):
sooner. The way that they're printingmoney down there. The entitlement programs big
time, big time, and wegot away with it because interest rates are
solo. But now with interest rateswhere they are, the interesting spence on
our debt is we're issuing, youknow, thirty forty billion a week in
treasuries just to pay the interest.So when I said earlier that I was,

(01:42:09):
I was concerned for the first time. I don't know if it's my
age. I don't know if it'sthe current economic conditions or the political atmosphere
of me. I feel like,what's going on here? I'm a little
concerned, and you know, shouldwe be? I think I feel,
you know, I try to simplifyto its smallest of parts. I feel

(01:42:30):
like housing is solid, you know, in like two thousand and five,
two thousand and six, two thousandand seven, is it? I feel
I feel the underwriting guidelines are therebecause tact us. You'll listen to some
people that think that the housing isa House of cards. I don't.
I don't think it is. Idon't think there's a bubble. I think
the demand is surely outweighing the supply. So that's pure you know economics,

(01:42:56):
one on one supply and demand.We don't have the crazy on the writing
guidelines we had in the two thousandand three two thousand and five era.
People are looking at we're looking atpaced ubs W two's tax turns, bank
statements, so we're doing everything right. That default rates are super low,
they're definitely going up because they're reallylow at the moment. So and believe

(01:43:18):
it or not, a certain amountof default rights is actually healthy for the
supply. So I feel like thehousing markets stable. I don't think we're
in a bubble there. I thinkwe're we really have serious trouble. And
I'm not going to tell you thecity that I was in, but you
know where I was last weekend,right, and I drove through that city,
which is an older New England city, and it's in desperate need of

(01:43:42):
help. Some of these neighborhoods arejust pitiful, pitiful. That's amazing.
Buildings that are just vacant. Peoplewalked away from you know which would probably
years ago. If you don't havejobs, in wages, if you don't
have quality of life, people aregoing to leave in droves, and you

(01:44:03):
can only have so much taxes.But we gotta go. I want to
thank Droeello. Give us a call. We'll be back next week. Be
safe. The information provided is foreducational informational purposes only. It does not
constitute investment advice and it should notbe relied on as such. It should
not be considered a solicitation a buyeror to offer as sales security. It

(01:44:26):
does not take into account any investorsparticular investment objectives, strategies, tax status,
or investment horizon. You should consultyour attorney or tax advisor. Thank
you for listening to the Retirement PlanningShow hosted by David Kopec. If you
would like to talk with Dave orsomeone at the Retirement Planning Group, call
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(01:44:49):
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Malta and Glen's Falls. Retirement PlanningGroup LLC is a registered investment advisor.
David M. Hopec is also aregistered representative of PERSH Kaplins Sterling Investments Inc.
PKS in their separate capacities. Aregistered representative of PKS, David M.

(01:45:09):
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