The Fagan Financial Report

November 23rd, 2025. 

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to our podcast radio show. Please note that the
content presented is for educational purposes only. We encourage you
to consult with a financial advisor or conduct your own
due diligence before making any investment decisions. All information provided
is believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for
accuracy or completeness. This presentation does not constitute investment, legal,
or tax advice, nor an offer to buy or sell

(00:22):
any security or insurance product. It also does not endorse
any third party or their views. All examples are hypothetical
and for illustrative purposes only.

Speaker 2 (00:31):
Good morning, and welcome to the Capital District's Money and
Investment program. You're listening to the Faigan Financial Report. I'm
Dennis Fagan, sitting here with my son Aaron. Excuse me,
as you do every Sunday right here in New stock
g ten on one oh three to one WGY, and
to try to put the sell off if you want
to call that into some perspective, this half.

Speaker 3 (00:48):
Hour, we'll call it that A little bit.

Speaker 2 (00:50):
I think we excuse me, I think we should talk
a little bit about that, a little bit about bitcoin
going down. The FED meets on December nine and tenth.

Speaker 3 (00:58):
Talk a little bit about that. Talk about out the
second half. You and Doug are talking about Vanguard, you know,
retirement planning, survey.

Speaker 4 (01:08):
The principles for investing success. Let me talk a little
bit about your end planning, which I think is important.
You know, give yourself a month and a half to
you know, really figure out some things that you have
to do for the end of the before the end
of the year that could you know, help you.

Speaker 5 (01:21):
And you know, we talked a lot about diversification.

Speaker 4 (01:23):
You know, saving versus saving versus investing, you know, the
power of compounding and the power in the power of saving.

Speaker 3 (01:29):
So good. I think it's interesting, Mom, and I just
got back.

Speaker 4 (01:33):
That was in your seat though, he's you know, I
know you're my studio seat. Wait for a few days,
you know, he jumps visiting clients, he jumps in and yeah,
he started dressing like you.

Speaker 3 (01:45):
Oh no, that's not gonna go.

Speaker 5 (01:48):
Well at home, No, Mom, peanuts, what you I know?

Speaker 3 (01:50):
I know. So, yeah, I was supposed to be a way.

Speaker 2 (01:52):
We came back a couple of days earlier, just got
got on the road and headed back.

Speaker 3 (01:56):
So it was nice.

Speaker 2 (01:57):
I went down and drove to Florida, going back down
the end of a found the week after Thanksgiving to
see somebody in Boynton Beach.

Speaker 3 (02:04):
I think it's Poytan Beach or so the coming back.
But uh, but but the market does not stop for anybody.
And I think.

Speaker 2 (02:14):
I want to put some things into perspective, and I
think the biggest fear is it's almost like driving when
you're lost and you're tired, you know, if someone's you
just don't know where you are. You don't know how
much time this has left. Uh, you get, yeah, you
get a little bit of fear mongering that comes out
on the airwaves.

Speaker 3 (02:35):
And that's.

Speaker 4 (02:38):
And you know, I just talked with a client who
opened up an account in the past month, right like
three weeks ago, and you know, it's hard to talk
about it when you're going through it, you know what
I mean. It's hard to you know, it's even hard
to talk to clients about you know. I think this
is a healthy pullback, which I do, you know, and
these are all things I actually think as well. I

(03:00):
think you need these pullbacks in a healthy cyclical bull market,
right but at the time, like this is people's money
that you know, on paper, have lost over the past month. Right,
So you know you want to try to you know,
I guess toe the line of not sounding like disingenuous
because this is people's money and it is important to
us and it's important to them. But you know, also

(03:20):
taking an historical approach, what usually you know, what occurs
during you know, bull markets. You know what is a
normal pullback, and you know what is if we think
there's something fundamentally systemically wrong with the economy and the
stock market, and I don't you know, yeah, it could
be wrong. You could always be wrong. I think you
always have to invest for if you're wrong. But you know,

(03:42):
I do think that I do still have, you know,
optimism in the current bull market that we're still in
because you know, we haven't corrected yet.

Speaker 2 (03:50):
Unemployments of four point five percent, four point four percent.
Earning's growth was eight percent over the last quarter. A
lot of it can sound a lot of it in
the mag seven. Yes, we are relatively lofty multiples with
the S and P five hundred round twenty two or
twenty three times earnings next year's earnings. So so you
may have muted returns moving forward, but generally speaking, positive

(04:15):
earnings growth, an easing fed or certainly not a tightening FED.
And you know, low unemployment does not warrant the type
of concern or the type of market response that would
that would end up in the market going down twenty
or twenty five percent. If you think back to twenty two,

(04:36):
we had a slowing economy. You know, we had a
coming out of the bubble really in the mini bubble
in twenty one with a lot of the meme stocks.
You had a tightening FED moving from zero to five
percent on the FED funds rate, and that that was
the prick in the bubble. Now, you know, I don't

(04:58):
see that. In fact, I I heard something yesterday that said.

Speaker 3 (05:02):
A couple of things. One is, Walmart is trading.

Speaker 2 (05:06):
At loftier multiples as far as a priced earnings and
a price earnings growth ratio than any of the mag
seven except for Tesla.

Speaker 3 (05:14):
I think that was interesting.

Speaker 4 (05:15):
But but Walmart just had earnings and it was up
six and a half percent, you.

Speaker 2 (05:19):
Know, right right, I think, yeah, you know, indiscriminated selling
right now, I think to a certain extent with like
the Microsofts and Metas and well Google's at all time
highs and face Alphabet.

Speaker 4 (05:30):
Even Amazon, you know, has gotten beat up a little bit,
and you know, be it. These companies have gotten beat up,
and they've all had really strong earnings.

Speaker 5 (05:38):
So I don't know, I.

Speaker 4 (05:39):
Think the thing's causing the sell off. I think it's
a culmination of things. I think it has to do
with the year end. I think that we're concerned about
you know, I think there is still a little bit
of a concern about inflation. I think it, you know,
it has to do with some overvaluation, and I think
we got a little bit, you know, I think the
market's like pumping the break so it doesn't get go parabolic.
I think think this whole oracle to Open Ai, from

(06:03):
Open Ai to you know, I think people were just like,
this seems a little bit frothy, right, So I think
I'd rather have you know, this pullback now and again.
You know, I think this is a healthy pullback in
the market because we are seeing these companies. You know,
you can say there's concentration risk in the s and
P five hundred, but you could also say, Okay, all
that concentration just had really great earnings and they all

(06:25):
have really strong balance sheets and financial statements, so okay,
you know, if they're the ones that that lead the market.
I'm happy with them, and I'm happy with I'm happy
with where they are. You know, from from you know,
you could say they're a little expensive, but we've never
been in a We've never really had in We've never
been in a stock market in the history of the
United States where we've had, you know, the largest companies

(06:48):
like this growing at these rates with this strong of fundamentals.

Speaker 5 (06:53):
You know, So I think you always have I think you.

Speaker 4 (06:55):
Have to evolve as the I think you have to
evolve how you how you you know, you price something
or you know, evaluate a stock as the economy and
the stock market evolves too.

Speaker 2 (07:06):
Well. I think you said what you said in there,
all of which was important, But what struck me as
that stood out, I think is that you have to
have a pullback to to prevent the market from going parabolic,
which is the ultimate risk really with the stock market.
And you know, being that we are running the Turkey
Trot a week from today, A yeah, you know, if

(07:28):
you go out and start sprinting that Turkey Trot, unless
you're one of the top ten finishers, somebody like me,
who was sixty four years old, if I went out
and started started sprinting on. Either have to slow down,
take a break, or I'm going to collapse. I think
that's a good analogy with the Turkey truck coming up
as as and then comparing that to the stock market.
If the stock market sprints forward and we have some

(07:51):
different performance here, that from really the President Trump's pivot
on the morning of April ninth, so the close of
the market because the market hadn't opened yet when he
pivoted on it on the tariffs. From April eighth to
the close of business on Thursday, the S and P
five hunter was up thirty one percent, the nas like

(08:11):
up forty four percent. All right, So that's over roughly
a seven and a half month period. You annualize that out,
and you have the S and P five hundred, you know,
up fifty percent or so, you have the nas like
up seventy percent. So it's like, whoa, let's pump the
brakes here, and I think you use that word pump
the brakes, and so we have pulled back. So I
think all the reasons that we pulled back what you

(08:31):
said year end, Ai, you.

Speaker 4 (08:33):
Know, we just had BLS numbers not come out. So yeah, yeah, right,
of like you know of multiple things going on. You know,
I just talked to clients, like your end is weird too, wait,
window dressing you have?

Speaker 3 (08:47):
You know, you don't know how it's going to play out.

Speaker 6 (08:49):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (08:49):
Yeah, people getting ready for twenty twenty six.

Speaker 4 (08:51):
So I'm I'm optimistic over the long term, even intermediate
term in these companies.

Speaker 5 (08:58):
It's just yeah, I think that it was time for
a pullback.

Speaker 2 (09:02):
So if we were up, let's say the market I
think is up fifteen or sixteen percent this year. Let's
call it fifteen percent in the S and P five pointer.
Let me just see exactly what the market is like.
You know, it's maybe ten or eleven It's.

Speaker 4 (09:12):
About twelve point three one percent, right, so let's say
it's up twelve percent.

Speaker 2 (09:17):
It was probably eighteen percent at the end of about
totals eighteen think. So if you take twenty five and
twenty six, the two years, let's say the market's going
through up a total of twenty five percent. My guess
it's still gonna be up a total of twenty five percent.
We're just not going to do as much this year
as next year. I mean, I don't I think we're
creating I don't think there's any real downs a lot

(09:37):
of downside risk of the market. I still think we're
gonna end up in decent shape at the end of
next year. I just think we're kind of pushing a
little bit, and perhaps.

Speaker 4 (09:44):
It can be expeculative too, But I think this is
a sign of like the market and investors getting smarter
of the history of the stock market too. You know.
I think that this is a healthy pullback, and people
wanted a healthy pullback. Yeah, the more and so so
you have to you know, And it's hard to say
this has has nothing to do with bitcoin either.

Speaker 5 (10:05):
Bitcoins down from one twenty five to eighty.

Speaker 3 (10:07):
What you're saying, there were a lot of margin calls
on bitcoin.

Speaker 4 (10:10):
There a lot of margin calls on bitcoin, which could
have triggered selling from other assets too.

Speaker 2 (10:14):
So cover them to cover the margin calls, yeah, you know,
rather than selling bitcoin, which is down thirty or thirty
five percent over the past month or so. And I
think that was triggered by the trade tensions between the
US and China. I think there were also some bitcoin
treasury funds that had to be liquidated in this and that.
So there are a lot of interconnecting piece a lot

(10:34):
of a lot of algorithms that pertain to work. But
I will say that get putting some context into it,
and again we don't know where this is going to
end up. We think the backdrop is relatively positive for
the economy, and I think that you know, you may
have a few more percent of the downside here, but
I think a bear market I would not consider that

(10:57):
very likely at this point in time. Non farm payrolls
in September, you know, and again in September October payrolls
will be released up one hundred nineteen thousand after falling
four thousand in August.

Speaker 3 (11:10):
So I think you have that average outity.

Speaker 2 (11:11):
Earning is up two tens of a percent, so you
have you have an economy that is hanging in there
pretty pretty well. And again non farm payrolls group by
one hundred and twenty thousand with limited immigration, that's why
those numbers are coming down a little bit, so that's
actually a pretty positive number. But I think you're right.
I think overvaluation market pumping the brakes concern over AI

(11:34):
and I think I do. I do find Thursday's move
where you had the nasdack bolt out to the positive
about two point six percent and then closed down one
point six percent. That reverse so is some shorter term
concern for the market, but it also it also gives
there's an old adage when we say off in here
on the show, the market climbs a wall of worry.

(11:54):
I think that, you know, we're putting bricks in for
that wall of worry that I think might might might
have been going one, you know, a month ago, I
think Marko was getting you mentioned a little too frothy.

Speaker 3 (12:05):
So now is it frothy?

Speaker 2 (12:06):
I think there are a lot of people that are
a little a little uh nervous out there right now,
so I think that's a positive. But you know, scooting
back to where we are, I had mentioned from the
bottom of the temper tantrum, you know, the S and
P five hundreds up thirty one percent. It was up
about forty percent, and Naasdak was up you know, around

(12:28):
fifty percent. So we still have that's about seven seven
months or so, seven and a half months from thus
far this year the S and P five hundred up
eleven percent.

Speaker 3 (12:41):
Okay, that's fine too.

Speaker 2 (12:42):
From from the bottom or relatively bottom of the bear
market in twenty two it was the bottom like I
think October tenth through October twelve, but this goes from
nine to thirty of twenty two. Through the close of
business on Thursday, the S and P five hundred was
up eighty two percent. The nasdack had doubled over roughly
a three year period. The NAZ that could average twenty
six twenty six percent a year, and that's even with

(13:04):
this pullback from ten thirty one of twenty the last
five years, the S and P five hundreds average has doubled.
It's averaged fourteen point sixty nine percent per year. The
NAS that composite has doubled. So those are some numbers.
And then finally i'll say that from the from the top,
which October twenty eight through October twenty nine, the S
and P five hundreds down five percent, and again that's

(13:26):
true Thursday.

Speaker 3 (13:27):
So come on, I think we've just again it was
it's quick.

Speaker 2 (13:31):
And you say quite often Aaron, that pullbacks these days
are a lot quicker than they used to be.

Speaker 4 (13:38):
An algorithmic with how much people have access to their accounts, Yeah,
they tend to be quicker.

Speaker 2 (13:45):
Right, So you have you have things going on that
I think warrant the pullback that we have seen now
during this pullback, the S and P five hundreds down
five point one, NASA down seven thirty four. Our common
stock component of our portfolio. Again, it doesn't include bonds.
It just kind of a comparison to the S and P,

(14:08):
comparison to the NASDAK we're down five point two.

Speaker 3 (14:12):
So you should look at your portfolio.

Speaker 2 (14:13):
If you're a if you're a listener out there, if
you're a client of ours, please feel free to give
us a call it five one, two seven four tomorrow
and say what am I down? You know you should
have you should have a good indication as to what
your portfolio is down over that same period, so you
get a feeling for what's going on. I would think
over that same period two bonds might have risen. Do

(14:34):
you have a do you have that number front of
the air. Can you do what agg's up over the
past month?

Speaker 3 (14:40):
Month? Is it up?

Speaker 5 (14:43):
I'll let you know, thank you, it's down point six percent.

Speaker 2 (14:47):
Right, So you've got so if you have a sixty
forty portfolio, you have you know, you're probably down three
percent or so from the top. So not bad, not
bad at all, especially being up forty forty percent or
so from the pivot on April eight. So let's put
in Cora context. Let's let's suggest or we do have

(15:08):
a solid backdrop to of the economy right now. I
think that all lends itself to some positive things moving forward.
And I think some relatively relatively reasonable valuations for the
Max seven, you know, probably and probably a good not
probably a historically good seasonality coming up post post Thanksgiving.

(15:30):
So I think we've got some We're okay, and we're
okay in through here, and I think we've been calling
for a bit of a pullback for the time being.
You know, some of our larger holdings have not really
been left unscathed.

Speaker 5 (15:45):
Yeah, Meta has has gotten.

Speaker 2 (15:48):
We're adding to that, adding to what what are some
of the individual securities that we've added.

Speaker 3 (15:53):
To you remember, I mean Amazon, Amazon, Metal.

Speaker 5 (15:56):
If I just had good earnings so so far.

Speaker 2 (16:01):
Meta Amazon, you know, certainly not any not any to Palanteer,
you know, which is drowned down about twenty five percent
from its all time high.

Speaker 4 (16:10):
We get Cisco just had good earnings. You know, it's
holding up pretty well. You know, I would start buying
workle down here to be honest, you know, I think
Oracle is a good company. It's trading at reasonable valuations.
I love the banks still, the banks.

Speaker 2 (16:23):
Nelix split ten for one this past week. You know,
Uber's down probably twelve points or so, down thirteen or
fourteen percent.

Speaker 3 (16:30):
I think you nibble at Uber all within a balanced.

Speaker 2 (16:33):
Portfolio or a portfolio that conforms to the longer term
objectives of the client. I don't think you need to
be a hero though. I think you kind of like,
you know, dip your toe in the water and then
move from there. I do think next year will bring
more of a spreading out in the market. I think
it's going to bring some things that you know, uh yeah,

(16:55):
not We're not all going to be just kind of
tied into the mag seven.

Speaker 4 (16:58):
Yeah, it'll be interesting that you have to take to
the RSP, the EQALDTF.

Speaker 3 (17:03):
What's that done over the past month.

Speaker 5 (17:07):
It's down four percent, you know, so.

Speaker 2 (17:10):
It's down eighty percent of the S and P five hundred. Yeah,
so you really haven't had that much about S and
p's down two point eight percent over the past month.
So that's twenty to the twenty three and what's going
from the high. So so that hasn't really provided any
type of port in the storm, so to speak.

Speaker 4 (17:25):
No, I don't think and you know, even just looking
at financials, not financials, you know, internationals down three point
seven seven percent, So I think these are good signs
really in you know, the longer term trend of a
bull market is just some profit taking on everything, really.

Speaker 3 (17:40):
And what's DGT down?

Speaker 4 (17:42):
I would guess three point five percent? Five I was
said I would guess three point five percent, but I'd
have to say just popping it up right now because
it's about fifty to fifty three point one percent. Yeah,
and IOL probably do a little bit more than that. No,
probably decent, but you bet I was flat at down

(18:03):
point one in there.

Speaker 3 (18:07):
So the the dgt's the state treats.

Speaker 2 (18:09):
But a global Dow E t f IOO is the
largest one hundred companies in the world, and that's obviously
consolidated or centered with you know a lot of a
lot of tech stocks. So but those are some things
you want to go. I don't think you can run
away from the things that are working. I think this
is the normal breather, uh in an ongoing bull markt

(18:31):
But that's going to and I think some of the
things that's impacted this, you know, you talked about there's
there's all different.

Speaker 3 (18:37):
I don't know if you want to get onto another topic.

Speaker 2 (18:40):
But some of the something that you're looking at really
is Federal Open Market Committee meets on December ninth and tenth.
The odds of a FED ray cut really dropped over
that has have dropped over the past month or so
US some I think FED Governor Williams talked talked a
little bit about in the past day or two about
that's still on the table.

Speaker 3 (19:01):
A rate cuts still on the table.

Speaker 2 (19:02):
So that hurts, you know, flat rates or rising rates
hurts longer dated assets. Longer dated assets are your secular growers.
Your secular growers are the MAC seven. So I think
that's hurt some of the some of the larger cap
tech stocks as well. We saw in twenty twenty two
that's how they really got hit.

Speaker 3 (19:21):
And so I think you're you're kind of feeling that.

Speaker 2 (19:24):
But all in all, you know, certainly just like a
normal pullback in in an ongoing bull market. Yeah, So
what else you got anything that you want to touch on?

Speaker 3 (19:34):
There?

Speaker 2 (19:35):
No, no, all right, So I do I do, And
you know, as I look at some things, you have.

Speaker 3 (19:45):
One of the things that let me just punch up
what I was going to say here.

Speaker 2 (19:55):
You know, I think you look at Nvidio's earnings this
past week, you know, and you.

Speaker 5 (19:59):
Look taking notes in the car when you're driving.

Speaker 2 (20:01):
Wanted to taking notes in the car while I was driving.
If you think, no one is in better position than
Jensen Wang, the CEO of and Video, to say whether
there's there's a bubble.

Speaker 3 (20:14):
In AI or not.

Speaker 2 (20:17):
And and I think Jensen Wang says postings, there's been
a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our
vantage point, we see something very different. And I think
in then videos started off to the positive and then
and then fell after that on on on on Thursday,

(20:39):
and I think I think that is definitely definitely a
sign of of a pullback rather than any type of
the end of the end of this bull market for
you know, I do think, though, and I wonder what
you think about it. At some point in time, enough

(21:01):
is enough, and maybe all the good news, be it
good news that's gonna take two, three four years to
take out, is already I agree.

Speaker 4 (21:10):
But you also have these large cap companies who who
aren't trading at astronomical values, you know, and they're earning
money today, like you know, is Zoo or Microsoft has
what forty percent growth rate?

Speaker 5 (21:23):
Amazon Cloud thirty?

Speaker 4 (21:25):
Right, you know, so I think you know, yeah, you know,
even Meta talking about their CAPAC spending, which is why
they're down, So, you know, twenty percent in one month.

Speaker 5 (21:34):
You know, a lot of my you know, even Zuckerberg.

Speaker 4 (21:37):
Yes, we're working on technology of the future, but these
technologies that we're working on can also be applicable to
things that we're making money on today. And I think so,
I think that's a little bit how people are getting
confused is thinking that, oh, you.

Speaker 5 (21:47):
Know AI, we need to see a ROI on AI. Alright,
but you know, these.

Speaker 4 (21:52):
Companies are earning money today, and I think that's what
people sometimes forget.

Speaker 2 (21:57):
I agree, I agree. FED will meet on December ninth
and tenth. I think what you see there too is
a little bit more of you know, are they gonna cut,
aren't they gonna cut? They're not gonna get October CPI
before their next before their next meeting. I think, you know,
that's probably too bad that they probably should push that

(22:17):
meaning back really uh too after the release of that.
You know, so you have some conflicting data also from
from the Fed governors as to you know, what their
opinion is about RAID.

Speaker 3 (22:30):
So just a lot.

Speaker 2 (22:31):
And you have that darth of really darth, dearth of
really economic data that's been out there over the past
month or two that's really impacting, you know where where
investors you know, you know, they just kind of feel
like they're in quickstand as to what to do here.
And and the year end is weird because you have,
at one point in time, you have investors to say, okay,
let's say the S and P was up fifteen percent

(22:52):
and you're up eleven or twelve, and you're a professional investor, well,
and you're marked against the sm P.

Speaker 3 (22:56):
Well I've got to catch up to it.

Speaker 2 (22:57):
Yeah, And all of a sudden, the S and P
starts selling all and you're like, uh, maybe I'll be
fine if I don't do it. I don't do it, Yeah,
maybe it don't touch up to me, so right right, right,
So so who knows how that whole thing plays out,
But you know, I think we're getting there.

Speaker 5 (23:11):
Yeah, me too.

Speaker 2 (23:12):
And I think, like I said, down down five percent
or so from the top.

Speaker 3 (23:16):
That's normal.

Speaker 2 (23:17):
Those types of corrections happened once a year yeah, so
you know, if this this is this would be at
least a second this year. I know earlier in the
year with was down market was down fifteen or twenty percent,
fifteen to twenty percent with the S and P five
hundred off of the President Trump's initial positions on the tariffs,
and then is reversed. So, in our opinion is kind.

Speaker 3 (23:36):
Of like a.

Speaker 2 (23:38):
Little bit of a breather before before you know, we
get some stabilization and we don't need to market the
rocket right back up again. We just need some stabilization
to get back in there.

Speaker 3 (23:48):
So anyways, I want to.

Speaker 2 (23:50):
Share why don't we show everybody and every thanks from
Happy Thanksgiving to you and then from all of us
a FIG and associates. You know, I want to wish
you and your family very happy, peaceful Thanksgiving.

Speaker 3 (24:02):
If you're down at the Turkey Trot and.

Speaker 2 (24:05):
You see two guys whiz by, wiz by, you know that,
what was that?

Speaker 3 (24:09):
What was that?

Speaker 2 (24:09):
Yeah, it's probably Aaron and I. If you're at the
Lhouse afterwards, we'll probably be there for a piny gay.

Speaker 3 (24:15):
So anyways, have a great Thanksgiving.

Speaker 2 (24:16):
You want to get a hold of us during the
week five forty four, check us out on the webit,
faganasset dot com, or let us on Facebook.

Speaker 4 (24:23):
Take care, Good morning, and welcome back to the Fagan
Financial Report. This is Aaron Fagan sitting here with Doug Keenholtz.
We kicked my dad off after the first half and
and you know, decided to talk a little bit about
you know, year end financial planning. I'm ten timeless investing
principles and you know, some some vanguards principles to investing success.

Speaker 6 (24:45):
So you know, I feel a little nervous in the
in the in the big fellacito. Yeah, usually the third
usually the third chair on this and and sit in
the middle of you guys, and now across the table
from you.

Speaker 4 (24:55):
I don't he doesn't even know we're doing this, right,
I know, you know he was he went on a
little trip with my mom. And so it is Friday
at about eight thirty, so he's coming in. We're actually
recording the first the second half first, and then he's
gonna help help us with the or with the first half.

Speaker 5 (25:11):
Second.

Speaker 4 (25:12):
Really, you know, it was it was kind of a
whirlwind market. You know, Bitcoin had been down eleven straight days.
You're seeing some pullback in the in the markets in general.
You know, I know we spoke about in video on
the first half, but you know, I think in video
is kind of you know, maybe driving the market action
this week, and you know, I think this could be
just a little bit bumping the road to you know,

(25:33):
a long term cyclical bowl market. So you know, but
we talked about that in the first half. But you know,
thanks for coming.

Speaker 5 (25:40):
In, Doug.

Speaker 6 (25:40):
Yeah, my pleasure.

Speaker 5 (25:41):
You know, I know you usually get Connor on the.

Speaker 6 (25:43):
Bus and I told him, I told him I couldn't
get him on the bus today, but I would mention
him on the radio show today. So shout out Connor
Keenholds have a great great Friday. Fifth grade and I Elementary.

Speaker 5 (25:54):
We had him in. We had him in a few
months ago.

Speaker 6 (25:58):
Yeah, I think we talked about him. Yeah, he's coming
up on the end of I'm sure all the listeners
are are dying to know what his next picks are
going to be. So he's coming up in the end
of his three months three months run. We'll probably have
him in. We'll have him in the office once over
maybe the Christmas break and when when the kids are
off from school and uh, and he can re evaluate
his his five stock picks and yeah and maybe uh,

(26:20):
you know, do some do some trading. So we'll see.
We'll keep everyone abreast of where Connor keenholds his investing
mind goes next.

Speaker 4 (26:26):
Yeah, I help my mother in law teaches a class.
She's a teacher at Troy, and they do.

Speaker 5 (26:34):
One of those. She's they do one of those every year.

Speaker 4 (26:37):
Yeah, you get one hundred grand and you have, you know,
three months to pick them. And she'll text me, I know,
one of your picks, and my wife's like, this is cheating, Aaron.

Speaker 6 (26:47):
It's like it's like having your dad be like, you know,
a professional baseball player or something like that as your
little league coach. It's not quite the same as as
the guy down the street. But I think we talked
about a little bit rather and I think that's great
at the elementary school, and you know, I think it's
cool that he's excited about it because I remember some
of that stuff. I think when I was in high school,
we had like an investing club, and at that time

(27:08):
my life, I wasn't really all that engaged in this world.
But why not the earlier the better, I think, you know,
it's introduced people to two different things and different you know,
not necessarily careers per se, but just you know, open
their minds to different things in the world and you
never know what sparks some of these interests. So it's
pretty neat.

Speaker 4 (27:27):
Yeah, And sometimes people will say, you know, why do
you do that, It's only three months or whatever. You know,
that doesn't really that's more gambling than anything. But you know,
I think just introducing anyone to how like the stock
market works, how it can work, and you know, if
it just helps a couple kids be like you know
at twenty one, oh, open a rowth ira and you
know you just really kind of get introduced to that

(27:47):
power of compounding.

Speaker 6 (27:48):
Yeah, compounding, and just the idea that you know, saving
just like versus you know, when he gets when he
gets a little bit of money from you know, grandparents
around his birthday on Christmas and stuff like that, other
than you know, think he wants to go straight to
Target and buy the next hot toy or go on
the internet and buy some roebox, which is what heads

(28:09):
robots and box are called the robox. I'm sure all
the listeners out there with with with children of around
that age know what robucks are. So Yeah, they're They're
as good as gold. So that's what he would prefer
to spend all his money on. So if we can,
you know, teach him to maybe you know, spend half
it on Roebucks and spend the other half on I'm
trying to build something for himself for the future, you know.

Speaker 4 (28:29):
So, I know, we talked a little bit about starting
with year end financial planning ideas and we sent out
a chart talk what last week about that. But you know,
I think that the conversation we're having, you know, lends
a little bit more to the to the vanguard principles
for investing success.

Speaker 5 (28:44):
And you know, I know you do a lot of our.

Speaker 4 (28:46):
You know, holistic financial planning helping clients you know in
their forties, fifties, US sixties that are getting close to
retirement really have an idea of what their retirement will
look like, right right, you know, or what they need
to do little things that they can do, you know
now for that for five or ten years when there
are actually retiring. Right It's almost like the butterfly effect, right,

(29:08):
like what little things can you do now to really
make a difference in your life five or ten years
from now? To you know, as my dad always says,
achieve that financial freedom. But you know, the first section
of this and I know you don't have it in
front of me, in front of you, but it's Vanguard's
Principles for Investing Success. So you know, and I think
that as we were talking just talking about with with

(29:30):
with Connor and you know, investing at an early age.
You know, the first section is about goals, right, you know,
investors should understand the types of types of constraints they
face and reaching each goal. These constraints can include how
much time they have, as well as their level of
risk tolerance, how they can invest initially in overtime, and
when they need access to their investments. So you know,

(29:51):
I know you talk a little bit about that really
like in retirement. I like the other day you were
talking about even like a new car and things like that.

Speaker 6 (29:59):
Right right, right, yeah, So I think what's interesting, uh
you know in that vein is you know, as we
work with folks that got just use an example, we
we you know, had a couple this week that we
did a zoom with, we did a plan for and
it was really interesting. They're you know, they're they're maybe
maybe like they'd like to be two or three years
from retirement, but you know, maybe they're maybe they're more

(30:21):
like five or six years from from what they want.
And you know, I think what we all, what people
really hope for it right, is when they step up
from retirement, that their life can continue on the same
way it was when they're working their expenses and and
they don't want to have to draw back. And that's
that's what the goal is for everyone, I think, when
they get to retirement. But what what we don't want
to show is that there are you know, the retirement
is a long stretch and there's gonna be a lot

(30:42):
of things that happen over that stretch. You know, you're
gonna have health care costs that that's going to be
you know, unknown from a lot of people, and you're
gonna need two or three cars probably during retirement. You're
gonna need you know, you people want to travel, People
want to go on vacation, and so it's really building
that difference between here's your bare bones benches and here
are the here are the goals. Here are the things

(31:02):
that you know, we'd like to get a new car
every five years, we'd like to you know, travel every year,
spend a decent amount of money, and how can we
build a plan for them they can do all that.
And to the point of you know, the the you know,
the Vanguard report that you're looking at there, it's basically
you know, playing around with Okay, so if if you

(31:23):
if you saved an extra fifteen thousand dollars over the
next five years of your retirement, how does that gain
or take away from your probability of doing all these things?
And maybe you know, maybe instead of a car every
five years, we can get you to carvery seven years.
But we can kind of map this out and gain
this out based on you know, asghistorical returns. But it

(31:43):
all comes down to essentially, you know, the principles of
you know, of saving first and having that availability to
you and and being a prudent investor throughout your life
and not you know, not you know, reaching for astronomical
returns versus prudent investing and you know, being fine with
singles and doubles versus looking for home runs all the time.

Speaker 4 (32:04):
Yeah, And I think where we kind of come into
play is really developing that plan for you you know,
I think that everyone you know, I think a lot
of times in this you're saying, hey, you know, I
think I can live off five or six grand year,
I think I can live off seven, But you know,
I think you have to you know, what is it?

Speaker 5 (32:22):
Everyone has a plan un till they get punched in.

Speaker 4 (32:23):
The face, Like you know, you have to like hypothetically
get punched in the face through these plans to see,
you know, how would I work out throughout them?

Speaker 6 (32:30):
Right? And that's how we try to build that out
is we use all these what if worksheets and basically say,
you know, hey, what if this happens, what if that happens?
How does your plan? What if? You know, unfortunately there's
a bear market the first couple of years of your retirement.
If you're planning to retire in twenty thirty and twenty
thirty one and twenty thirty two are two down years,
will this plan hold up over those two down years?
Because that is the sequence of returns is something that

(32:52):
can greatly affect people in retire right when they retire.
The timing of your retirement versus the market and meaning
those assets to help supplement your your income from pensions
and retirement or pensions so security, you know, it can
be drastically different results based on what those first few
years of retirement, right returns are, So you know, making
sure that that you're not over over allocating withdrawals from

(33:14):
your account in those early years to make sure that
you know your your plan will last for the I
think people underestimate how long their retirement and people are
living long. Yeah, I mean they just are. People are living.

Speaker 5 (33:24):
And they want to do things when they're active in retirement, right.

Speaker 4 (33:27):
I know a lot of people are retiring around sixty
sixty five, and you really have till seven seventy five,
essentially eighty to do the travel that you want to do, right, So,
I think you want to.

Speaker 6 (33:37):
Write the balance between you know, having access to your
you know, you've worked hard your whole life. You saved
this money. You want to be able to use it
and utilize it and have the retirement you dream for
the balance of that versus also making sure you don't
run out of money when you're ready to h and
you know, put yourself in dire strengths.

Speaker 4 (33:53):
You know, if you have to go to a nursing
home actually right exactly, which one.

Speaker 6 (33:57):
Yeah, right exactly, having the having the ability to manage around.

Speaker 4 (34:00):
That you know, the second point here, the second I
guess bullet point here is the power of saving is investing,
and it kind of goes on to that, you know,
it talks a little bit about you know, how that
works in with your goal. So the value of investors
portfolio achieves over time is some of two things they're
saving in their investment returns. Savings is savings is the
amount invested what the investor contributes initially in overtime, and

(34:23):
the investment returns are changes in the value. And you know,
it kind of goes on to say that, you know,
if you have, if you have a goal within two
years that to achieve that goal you have, it's ninety
six percent savings and six percent returns.

Speaker 5 (34:38):
Right.

Speaker 4 (34:39):
But the longer the time horizon is you know that
then you go out to thirty years and it's fifty
percent savings and forty nine percent returns. So essentially, you know,
you can, you know, decrease your savings rate and let
your investments, you know, do the heavy liftings. So you know,
investors will achieve their goal through savings and investment returns.
Time is a key factor. For example, for a goal
with an investment horizon of two years, ninety four percent
of that goal is achieved through savings, in only six

(35:01):
percent from investing. As I just said, if that horizon
expanded ten years, you know, savings can contribute only eighty
percent towards that goal. So I think as what we
were saying at the beginning of the show, and that's
kind of why I, you know, went to this instead
of the other things. First is, you know, the earlier
you start, the earlier start to invest or the early
you know, the quickie you identify a goal that you want.

(35:22):
And that's why we're starting these plans earlier and earlier,
you know, forty forty five fifty if people are trying
to work to sixty, because you know, that power of
investing as opposed to savings is greater the.

Speaker 5 (35:34):
Farther you have out. And you know, I know a
lot of.

Speaker 4 (35:38):
I guess I have to say this correctly, you know,
and I know a lot of firms have minimums and
things like that, but you know, we work with a
lot of kids, and I kind of get excited to
work with people who want who are in their twenties
who want to start an account, because you know, it's
it can really just you can just do so little
in your early twenties or thirties that can improve your

(35:59):
life drastically in your sixties. And I no one wants
to think about being sixty or seventy, but you know,
I'd rather have an easy set sixty seventy than then.
You know, what is it that you know the best
time to plan a tree is now.

Speaker 6 (36:11):
The right, right second, but you know, yeah, the second
best time is tomorrow. Yeah. No, I think it parallels
what you just said directly into what we talked about
earlier with with Connor. And you know, I think you know,
starting earlier. And one of the things in the year
end planning that we you know, on our list and
was in the chart talk is you know, people being
eligible for you know, their catch up contributions to their
phone K when they're fifty plus. And that's you know,

(36:32):
that's great that that's there, But the idea that you
need to catch up, you know, once you're in your fifties,
if you're in your fifties and you haven't really you know, started,
or you're you're you're behind the eight ball, like you
don't have that time arise and you don't have the
length of time to let those investments, you know, continue
to go and you do have to save more. And
you know, unfortunately, when you're in your forties and your fifties,

(36:53):
as I'm you know, experiencing with my older kids, you've
got college expense, you've got travel teams, you've got a
lot of other you know, draws on your There's only
so much, so much honey in the pot, I guess,
is a good way to say it. And so you
have to figure out the right ways to do it.
And what I've tried to you know, I have a
back to my personal family.

Speaker 5 (37:12):
I don't know.

Speaker 6 (37:13):
I have an older daughter who's who's a freshman in college,
go Blue Michigan, and I knew you had to say.
And you know what I've tried to imploreing her. She's
you know, had jobs now and whatnot. And you know,
typical typical teenage girl. You know, as soon as she
gets paid, wants to go to Starbucks and Alta in
all those places. And I just try to tell you, like, look,

(37:34):
if you can take twenty percent of that and just
take eighty percent of it whatever your take home is,
and say this is what I can spend it, like
you have to, you know, you're working to I don't
want to spend my money at all ten Starbucks. I'm
rather that you're spending your own. But at the same time,
it's take twenty and just getting this mindset of you know,
every time you get a check from a job, if
you take twenty percent of that and just put it
away for something later on. You know, if you can

(37:56):
just try to religiously do that your whole life and
live on eighty percent of what you make on your
day to day, uh, You're gonna end up in a
a in a pretty good spot because that that kind
of just same thing with everything right with routine, like
you know, wiping out habits, things along those lines. Like
I think that kind of you know, segue is pretty
good into the year end planning. I think a lot
of times when people, you know, come to the end

(38:17):
of the year. We're closing in on December here, Thanksgiving
is next week. You know, people start to think about
a lot of things in their lives. You know, I'm
I'm one for and I'll start doing cardio again in January,
like why why bother now? But everyone gets that fresh
start with a new year, you know, and a lot
of things in their lives, and so I think, you know,

(38:39):
reviewing your goals and moving into you know, what can
you do in your financial world to to kind of
you know, close out the year strong and also spruce
up and and maybe start some new good habits into
the next year. I think, you know that that's a
good idea towards you know, what your year in financial
planning goals should be as well.

Speaker 4 (38:56):
Yeah, and so you know, I think that was kind
of the the gist of I guess that Vanguard.

Speaker 5 (39:05):
Vanguard essay.

Speaker 3 (39:07):
But you know, the.

Speaker 4 (39:07):
Last thing I will hit on is the balance, right,
you know, keep a balance and diversified mix of investments.
And I don't know, I know we talk about diversification
all the time, but I think this week is a
very good week to see, Hey, you know, you if
you had you know, if you're own bitcoin, it's going
from one twenty five to what eight eighty two? As
as as of we're speaking right now, you're seeing a

(39:28):
lot of the you know, hyper scalers that we hear
all the time, you know that that they're always talking
about on TV. Pull back a little bit. You're seeing
a little bit of skepticism. I think in the economy
as well as the markets. You know, I think people
a little bit nervous about inflation. I think you had
some things come out with the FED and some Fed

(39:48):
governors saying, hey, you know, I think we're still worried
about inflation, which could you know, signal rates remaining here.
But I think you know what we're seeing also is
Johnson and Johnson doing well. You know another stock own
is Regeneral Healthcare has had a good.

Speaker 5 (40:03):
Week, so I think you know, and they haven't had
good years, so I think.

Speaker 4 (40:07):
You know what we're what you're seeing this week is
something you know, along the lines of you know, having
investors remember why it is important to state ever.

Speaker 6 (40:16):
Right, Yeah, it can be a little intoxicating when you
look at the mag seven and and you know, the
the tech companies that have had these really fantastic runs
and are great companies and you know, have huge market
caps and you know, have had had really good run ups.
But if you take a step back and realize that,
you know, over the course of the history of investing,
you know, putting all your eggs in one basket hasn't

(40:38):
hasn't generally been a very good idea for for a
long til long haul and long term investing. And that's
you know obviously our mindset of of you know, you've
got to be you know, you got to have some
exposure to those those big names and you know, the
ones that have had this this nice run up, but
you can't you know, get intoxicated by great returns in
a Google or an Apple or all these other companies
and and know over the long haul that you know, eventually,

(41:01):
you know, water finds its level and all those things
will will even itself out over time. And being diversified
over a lot of different you know, different areas and
different you know, different market conditions and whatnot will win
the day, you know, more time than not.

Speaker 4 (41:16):
Yeah, you know, and I think that we talk a
lot about that with clients. My dad talks a lot
a lot of it about it on the show. But
you know, when you hit retirement, you know, the days
of getting rich are over. You know, you want to
invest your portfolio for you know, for asset distribution rather
than asset performance. And you know that might come with
a little bit lesser returns, but you know, I think
most of the people just want to I guess turn

(41:38):
that financial part of their brain off a little bit
and enjoy the rest of the years.

Speaker 5 (41:42):
Of their life.

Speaker 6 (41:44):
Right, let us watch the NBC and listen to them say,
hyperscale fifty times a day you go out and play golf.

Speaker 4 (41:50):
Or go for a hike, visit your grandkids or whatever. Absolutely,
And so I think we have about what seven or
eight minutes left, So you know, I think this is
a good time. We have about it, little over a
month left to the end of the year, and I
think it's as I said at the beginning of the show,
I think it's a good time to look at, you know,
your financial plan and some things that you can do. So,

(42:11):
you know, we sent out something to our clients last week,
and you know the first one is, you know, review
your financial goals, assess progress towards short, medium and long
term goals buying a house, retirement, education, savings. You know,
whatever your goals are and what you need for the short,
medium and long term. Start to review those and you know,
adjust your financial plan to reflect reflect those because as

(42:32):
you were saying, you know, different time horizons require different allocation. Right,
So if you need to buy a car in two years,
or you had a woman who has to actually rebuild
a barn that got blown down in and she's going
to do it in summer of next year. And she's like, hey,
you know, the stock market's been doing so good. Should
I put my money in there? And I'm like, you know,

(42:54):
if you need something with a year or two less,
you know, you want to want to take you know,
you want to.

Speaker 5 (42:58):
Dediversify, not dediversified d risk.

Speaker 4 (43:02):
And you know what we're doing with clients right now
is what we try to do quarterly is rebalance, right,
so we're going through all our you know, our clients
accounts that got that arm. You know, if you have
a seventy five to twenty five percent objective, you know, yeah,
maybe you're at eighty now because the market's done so well,
but that doesn't mean that you should go from eighty
to one hundred. That maybe you should go from eighty
down back down seventy two seventy three below below that

(43:23):
objective that we kind of agreed on.

Speaker 6 (43:25):
Yeah, yeah, I mean, and so the idea that you know,
I think the end of the year is a good
time to do these things, and you know, a lot
happens in twelve months. You know, you might have started
twenty twenty five thinking you know, you're you know, you
were really concerned about, you know, saving for college and
needing that new car or whatever, and maybe something's changed
through the year, and so maybe you need to look
at and say, okay, maybe I should you know, change

(43:46):
my objectives and do this and do that. And it's
always good to check in with yourself and check in
with your your personal financial plan to make sure that
you know the things you are planning for are still
important and you've got them ranked the right way, and
you can you can make sure you're you're on you're
on pace, and you're on you're on task with with
all those things. And if you've gotten off of you know,

(44:07):
a plan or you've you know, gotten that a whack
a little bit, it's good time to reset. And the
same idea as rebounds, you can reset your you know,
your objectives and your savings. Maybe you got a promotion
at work, maybe you started making a little more money,
maybe you know, something happened and you can you know,
allocate a little bit differently. So it was a good
time of checking with yourself.

Speaker 4 (44:22):
And you know, as simple as it is, you know,
the young you are, you know, you can easily go
online and find a compounding calculator and say, hey, you know,
what will my assets look like in you know, five
ten years from now. And if that's not where you
want to be, you know, what can you do you
know to uh, you know, some adjustments that you can
do to to help you out a little bit in
the future, your future, self, future future, you problem. You know,

(44:47):
tax planning, maximize contributions, contribute to tax advantages. You know,
four one K four three B was twenty three five
hundred for twenty twenty five, and you do have a
seventy five hundred dollars catch up for a fifty plus.

Speaker 5 (44:57):
So I think that's something everyone should be looking at.

Speaker 6 (45:01):
You've got Sometimes people end up with, you know, dec
amount of cash in their checking account, or you know,
raise right exactly a year end bonus, or maybe you
never did anything with that tax refund you got back
in April or or October, if you uh, if you
file an extension or whatever the case may be. And
if you've got you know, if you haven't maxed out
yet or you've got that and you're you know, in

(45:22):
in a tax bracket where it makes a lot of
sense to to lower your tax for this year go
ahead and make that contribution.

Speaker 5 (45:28):
You know what's tough.

Speaker 4 (45:30):
What one that really sets I mean that pops out
at me is tax lost harvesting.

Speaker 5 (45:35):
You know, it gets harder and harder than more.

Speaker 4 (45:37):
Into a bull market you get, you know, because you
know the stock market as a whole has going up substantially.
But you know there's a lot of bond funds out there.
I mean, if your own bond ets that might pay five, six, seven.
I know some of our bond ETFs is on eight percent.
But you know, you can easily go from like a
you know, an AGG which is I think I shares,
you know, aggregate bond index to something similar. You know,

(45:58):
you can't be exactly the like, but it can be.
It can be similar. I forget what the terminology is.

Speaker 5 (46:03):
It's like, it.

Speaker 4 (46:05):
Can't be I don't know. It can be like ninety
percent the same as something else. You can tell right
to it. Then thirty days you can really get back
into that fund if you want. So there's a thirty
day rule. So if you know you want to go
agg too, let's say you know money market, then thirty
one days you can go back to the AGG and
harvest that loss.

Speaker 6 (46:23):
Yeah, yeah, I mean to your point, we've you know,
we've struggled with that sometimes here when when folks are
you know, need money for things out of there, you know,
after tax accounts and you look to sell something, and
you know, the market's something such a good run for
the last you know, three four or five years and
and whatnot that you know, the taxes sometimes are inevitable
and you do have to sometimes take them, but the
most the more you can do to minimize that and

(46:45):
and find some loss in your portfolio to to offset
in the games that you might have taken earlier in
the years.

Speaker 4 (46:50):
Even takes some games, you know, and we we kind
of go back and forth with this in the office,
and just mentally, I do is you know, sometimes enough
is enough sometimes, you know, if you've held on to
Google and it's twelve percent of your portfolio, bring it
down to nine and pay the ten to fifteen percent
capital gains tax because it's just the right thing to do.
Right now, you know, we've had such an amazing run

(47:12):
in the market that you know, I do think that
we you know, there's a lot of companies out there
that you bought like palent here for example, when we
bought it. We bought it two percent for some people
or in video or AMD, now it's eight nine percent.
You know, I have to think, hey, you know, if
the largest company in SMPS and video and it's at
seven percent, you have twelve of it. You know, you're
you know, eighty percent over allocated towards it. And is

(47:32):
that something you want, you know, for the inevitable right
back that will happen.

Speaker 6 (47:36):
Yeah, exactly, And it's just sometimes you have to bite
the bullet on that capital gains if it's in an
after tax account, and you know, it's a good problem
to have, right you know, Hey, my portfolio.

Speaker 5 (47:45):
Is are never happy about it.

Speaker 6 (47:47):
My portfolio is up too much.

Speaker 5 (47:48):
I had to.

Speaker 6 (47:49):
I took some gain off the table. But like you said,
if you if you don't do it systematically or from
time to time, then you know you're at some point
you're compounding that issue. And if you do, if you
do need a huge you know, money for a goal
or an objective or an emergency, you know you'd rather
have taken some over over the course of your life
versus you know, all the one time.

Speaker 4 (48:08):
You know, so we have about a minute left, you know,
happy Thanksgiving? Yeah, games, No, Giants don't play. I know
the Bengals are the night game, and it sounds like
Burrow is going to be back. So that's, uh, that's good.
That's it's more fun to watch than than anything else.

Speaker 6 (48:23):
But yeah, no, the big the big game for for
my family is is next Saturday, the game you know,
Michigan State. Yeah, my my eldest will be in.

Speaker 5 (48:34):
I'm a Bandwagon fan.

Speaker 6 (48:36):
I've got the whole office amazing blue around here. It's
it's fun, it's fun. I've never really had a college
team the roof for going to r P I you
know you didn't. I didn't really have like a big
time college.

Speaker 5 (48:44):
Fame kind of go from team to team everything.

Speaker 6 (48:47):
It's great to it's great to have. Last time I
found myself on like recruiting websites now be like our classes.
It's crazy, but.

Speaker 4 (48:55):
Are so you know, it's you know ten what eleven o'clock.
Please give us a call for you're a client or
not a client. We can go over some you know,
tax planning, financial planning, estate planning five poet eight two
seven nine one zero four to four. Check us out
on the libit faganasset dot com.

Speaker 5 (49:11):
Well and have a great Thanksgiving Thanksgiving.

Speaker 1 (49:14):
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not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. All examples are hypothetical

(49:37):
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(49:58):
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(50:20):
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