Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
And we're joined here.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
Right in front of us one of the best NYRA
Bets handicappers, Matt DeSantis, and he has one of the
most interesting stories I think we've ever heard.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
I love this all the years we've been marketing together.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
So Matt described, before you got into horse racing, what
were you doing.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
I was a college professor of political science for fifteen
years and loved it. I taught at a university Texa
sell Passer, George Mansion University. You had a really good job.
I had a really good job. I had a great job.
I had a good you know, health insurance, dental plan,
the whole nine yards. But I've had a passion for
horse racing since I was eleven years old.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
My dad took me to the track of Penn National.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
I turned allowance money into double that and was hooked
ever since. And during the pandemic, I started a podcast
just on the side as a hobby, and over the
next few years it really caught on, and luckily two
years ago there was an opportunity to make a transition
to my life and move up to here, to New
York and start doing horse racing and covering it as
a handicapper and analyst for Nyra Bets.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
Well the dream man. That is such a dream, it
really is.
Speaker 4 (01:02):
So you've been doing it for two years now, and
I know it was there like a rookie newcomer, like
who does this handicapper think he is?
Speaker 1 (01:11):
It's funny.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
There was the very first video I did, because I
definitely had that imposter syndrome. The first day I came
up here, I was like, man, I see all these
other people, Andy Serling at kh Clamont, all the great
people up here at in Iira.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
I'm thinking, man, do I belong?
Speaker 3 (01:23):
I'm some college professor with some you know, academic down
here in Virginia.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
What am I doing? And the very first video.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
I did was for the Haskell Stakes a couple of
years ago, and I gave out a horse go rocket
ride and it was, like I said, it was like
a second day on the job, and I kind of
lost track of the day, and all of a sudden
I realized the Haskell's up next down at Monmouth Park,
and I look up and go rocket ride with something
like three to one on the morning line, and he
had floated all the way up to eleven to one,
(01:50):
And I think to myself, Oh, my god, I'm gonna
look like an idiot. This horse is dead on the board,
nobody's betting him. Wins by three lengths. And once that happened,
I was like, alright, I'm good for a while. I
can give out some bad picks and I still got
enough credit that. Yeah, I kind of know what I'm
talking about.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
I guess.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
So, like he said, you have to earn and pay
your dues and stuff like that, but after two years
you've had a lot of great picks and stuff like that.
So what goes into looking at the board, looking at
these horses and trying to place money. Let's just say
for a small time better that loves you know, I
don't really want to open my wallet up. How did
they get from opening their wallet up to placing the bet?
Speaker 1 (02:29):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (02:29):
I think the biggest thing is just feeling confident in
your opinion and knowing the right type of bet to make.
I think so oftentimes people want to jump right into
the deep end of the swimming pool. Oh I want
to play a pick five, a pick six. I see
these huge payouts. That's gonna be really exciting. That's not
a great way to start betting. That's not going to
be a good experience for you. You're gonna waste a
lot of money putting those tickets together, because you're gonna
(02:50):
be just putting together really expensive tickets that don't hit.
Start with a win bet, I mean, don't don't overthink
this thing, you know, start with a win place bet.
You know, start with something simple and exactly trying to
pick the top or an exact the box where they
can finish in whichever order, and really start to learn
how to analyze races. I think the number one thing
the old adages pace makes the race. So the very
first thing you look at is just look at the
(03:11):
pace of the race. Which horses are going to be
up in the lead, which horses are going to be
sitting midpack, Which horses are going to be coming.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
From the all the way in the back.
Speaker 3 (03:18):
How does the pace of a particular race set up
and help some types of those horses. Is there no
other speed in the race other than one horse? Well,
in that case, hey, maybe I want to put a
little bit money of this front runner who might not
face any pressure and go all the way around.
Speaker 1 (03:31):
Is there are a lot of pace in the race.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
In that case, Hey, who are my closers, who are
these horses going to be coming running late? So just
looking at some of the basics. And the great part
about Nira Betes is we have one oh one handicapping
and betting tutorials yeah on the app as well as
on our YouTube page that really talk fans through that
and explain in real time and using real examples, how
they can feel more confident in that stuff.
Speaker 4 (03:50):
Since you become I'm gonna have to use this word
a professional, Since you've become a professional, what are some
of the old adage things you didn't know until you
started hanging around that crew, and what unique things do
you bring to the table that you don't think a
lot of people look at.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
Yeah, so I think one of the things that I
definitely learned, maybe but even before I came up here
was kind of the art of the cutback, and so
when horses cut back from certain distances. So we just
saw horse ways and means when the bed of roses
a couple of races go. She's such a good filly,
such a great sprinter, but last year's a three year old,
she was running in what we would say two turned races.
(04:26):
She was going longer because she was a very precocious
horse who had a lot of talent, but going a
mile on a sixteenth the mile and eighth, that's not
what she did best. And as soon as they cut
her back to one turn man, she blossomed and she
really became a great horse. So learning the art of
the cutback and learning that you know, going from a
mile to six furlongs is always a really great cutback distance,
and things like that. And then some of the things
(04:47):
that I always look for is sometimes you'll see horses
make surface switches going from dirt to turf, and when
they make that transition, a lot of times you'll see
they'll run a significantly better speed figure, which is a
term with a or a figure that we have in
our sport. And what I always love doing is finding
the horse that's gonna run second time on a new surface,
but they've stepped up in class. So let's say they
(05:09):
were a claiming horse, they go to the new surface,
they run pretty well. Now they're gonna run in the
stakes race. Hey, I want to bet that horse because
now all of a sudden they've gotten better, and the
trainer and the connections know, hey, we got something on
our hands here. Let's step this one up and you're
still gonna get a big price. So I love playing
second off a surface switch at little angles like that.
But uh yeah, it's always fun. You're in the great
(05:30):
part about this sport. You learn every day talking to.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
Matt DeSantis from nyr Bets and all right, so we're
you know, we've had Flavion Proud on the show. Many
of these riders on the show, man he's riding today.
Are there some riders that aren't riding today? And and
do you judge them and say, well, this guy rode
ten races yesterday.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
Man, he's he's kind of hot.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
I mean, what are some of the things for you
that go into you know, picking the horse tomorrow? Yeah's
who's the rider? You know, things like that. It definitely matters.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
You generally want to see a that has some experience
at the track, whether they rode today versus yesterday. You know,
maybe not the most important, but you want to know
that they've written this track before, so they know how
the turf course plays, how does the main track play.
Things like that potential biases. The nice part about tomorrow
is a jockey like umbertel Rispili, who's the jockey of
journalism who's based out in California. Well, he came east
(06:20):
just to get some experience riding at Saratoga before the
Belmont Stakes tomorrow when he's on journalism. So everybody that's
riding tomorrow is writing today. And you definitely do want
to pay attention to hot jockeys. I ride Ortiz, you
in your Flavian prat. These jockeys know how to win
up here in New York. Johnny Velaska is a Hall
of famer, So you definitely want to pay attention when
(06:41):
they get on a hot streak because those can last
for a week or two at a time. And when
a jockey just is feeling confident and just kind of
sees the race the right way, they can see where
the hole is going to open up, they can feel
the pace as it plays out, and you definitely want
to be paying attention to those types of things.
Speaker 4 (06:56):
I tell everybody nobody knows. Nobody knows. As much as
they want to tell you, nobody knows.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
Huh.
Speaker 4 (07:02):
His father in law used to tell us, talk to
the jockeys. Jackeys always know. They're the ones who know
they do. Now, who do you rely on for your
tips and you're like inside info.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
You know. It's funny.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
I don't rely on a lot of inside info because
if you talk to certainly, everybody's horse looks amazing, everybody's
horse is about to win the Kentucky Derby, and it's like, no,
they're not, you know so, but you're right.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
The jockeys do generally know.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
And I remember I have a colleague, Darwin and Viscaya,
and the thing is a lot of the jockeys up
here are Hispanic and so in the Spanish speaking, and
Darwin speaks to them in their native language. So they're
very comfortable talking to Darwin about all the things. And
I remember last year Darwin comes into my office last
June and said, Matthew, there's a horse that Bill Mott has,
(07:48):
sovereignty Junior Alarado.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
He loves this horse. He says he's the best horse
in Bill Mott has. And I go, all right, and
I just write down sovereignty. Man. That that one paid
off pretty nicely. So you know, those jockeys they know
right away.
Speaker 3 (08:01):
They know right away because they've been on thousands of
horses and they know when they're under something special. And
Junior absolutely knew he was on something special with sovereignty.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Right away between being on the other side where like
these people are betting, they love the sport, things like that,
to now like telling them and giving them tips. You know,
Andy Sterling comes down a lot. He's like, people will
yell you sucked out. Oh yeah, you know you can't
be right all but now so you got to have
thick skin walking around here.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
You do.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
And I think the key is you want to be
the one thing that I love about my job. And
maybe this is a carryover from being a professor. Is
I like showing my work, So I don't just like going, hey,
bet the four horse.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Why why should I bet the four horse?
Speaker 3 (08:43):
And then I'll if you go to Nyra Betes, if
you go to our YouTube page, I explain why I
like a horse.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
You know, I like the four horse in this race.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
Why, Okay, well I think they have a pace advantage,
or the jockey's really hot, or I like the pedigree in.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
This particular instance, or whatever the case might be.
Speaker 3 (08:58):
And that way, even if the four horse might not
win that race, you at least understand what my logic
was going into it, and then you can take it
or leave it. If you're a fan, and I always
tell people the most important opinion is your own. And
the stuff that we give you, whether it's Andy or
myself or anybody here up here, it maybe helps give
you an idea. Maybe you give a second look at
a horse because oh, geez, Andy likes this horse.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
I didn't really take a look at this one.
Speaker 3 (09:20):
Huh. I should take a second second, you know, look.
And those sorts of things like those are really valuable insights.
But it doesn't mean, oh, well, Matthew had this pick.
Therefore I should just replicate what Matthew had. And the
other thing is, listen, if you're winning thirty thirty five
percent of your races and picks, it's kind of like baseball.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
You if you.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
Fail seventy percent of the time, you're going in the
Hall of Fame, you know, And so it's kind of
the same way. And you know, in horse racing, if
you pick right thirty percent of the time, you're making
a lot of money because you're hitting on five, six,
eight to one horses that are paying ten, twelve, sixteen dollars.
And at the end of the day, you look back,
you go, well, geez, I bet twenty bucks to day.
(09:59):
I ended up with eight, that's a pretty good day.
Hell so yeah, just a little like things like that,
you can, you know, build up your bank roll over time.
Speaker 4 (10:06):
Let's talk about Saturday and the big one. I'm really
looking forward to it, man. I I know that Nyra
wants a triple crown possibility and we're not gonna get that.
But I love how it's head to head sovereignty and
journalism and then we're throwing out six shooters that could
all possibly win this. What are your thoughts just with
this this race coming up tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (10:24):
Well, it's a thrilling race.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
You got the Derby winner, you got the Preaknu winner
who happened to be the Derby runner up. You got
the third place finisher in the Derby. Who oh, by
the way, the half brother to last year's Belmont Stakes
winner door Knock Idot who was also the half brother. No,
it's a Bazaza is the half brother to dor Knock,
who won last year's Belmont, and also the half brother
(10:45):
to Mage, who won the twenty twenty three Kentucky Derby.
So this is a horse that ate agree and and
then you have a horse like Rodriguez. Bob Baffer's bringing
him from California. You got to take that or a series.
Stilly Todd Pletcher's got a couple of runners. Crudo is
a long shot that I really think could run a
big race tomorrow. So it's gonna be a thrilling race,
and sovereignty and journalism have an opportunity to really make
(11:08):
an impression in this sport. And I'm gonna some of
the old timers listening to this might remember this. If
you're just a fan, now, go to YouTube. Look up
Affirmed and AlIdar. Those are two horses from nineteen seventy seven.
They finished all three Triple Crown races a neck a
park from each other. They had a great rivalry, and
I think that's what we're gonna see between sovereignty and journalism.
These are when I see them out in the paddock.
(11:29):
They were out the other day. I got to see
them on the track. Impeccable animals. They are specimens that
just stand heads and shoulders above everybody else, just in
the way they're built, the way that they filled out,
the way that they move. They are incredible creatures and
it's gonna be an epic showdown to see when they
hit the top of the stretch. And it's really splitting
hairs to differentiate between those two horses. I love the
(11:51):
way you talk about them and how they're built and
all that kind of stuff, pedigree.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
You know, they don't race as much as they used to.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
Know, how important is it for some of them to
win so they can put him out to stud that
kind of stuff. Yeah, and after this, I know I
always bore Andy with a lot of these questions. How
much will the winner of the Belmont race after tomorrow?
Speaker 3 (12:10):
Yeah, it's a good question, and it depends on who
the winner of the Belmont is to some extent. If
it's a horse like Sovereignty, you'd have to imagine they're
going to run in the travers later this summer up
here in Saratoga, and then ultimately the Breeders' Cup Classic
is going to be the end goal at del Mar
this November as a four year old. If they bring
this horse back as a four year old and they
decided not to retire him, then he's probably gonna go
(12:30):
overseas and racing like the Saudi Cup and the UAE
and the Dubai World Cup, and ran Russ again run
against some of the best horses in Japan. And the
rest of the world. So it's gonna be a really
thrilling now for us. Like journalism wins, he's probably gonna
go back to California and run in some of those
Pacific Classic, some of those races that we saw a horse.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Like flight Line run in a few years ago.
Speaker 3 (12:48):
So it's gonna be a lot of fun to see
how they, you know, depending on who wins, what their
future campaign is. But I think in the case of
Sovereignty and Journalism, we're going to see them run three
four more times in all likelihood throughout their career, and
maybe just as the rest of this year a little
bit in their four year old campaign. But uh, that's
the hope is that you get to see it a
little bit more.
Speaker 1 (13:06):
That's awesome.
Speaker 4 (13:07):
We have two women in our lives that just have
an eye. Johna Dibble when she left, she can for
some reason look at horses when they're walking, not even paddock,
when they're coming out to the gate, and she just
has an eye to pick winners.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
Yeah, but that's why I like what you're saying. She
can tell if they're competent or not yet at them.
Speaker 4 (13:25):
And then part timeer Jenna is just winning people. We
go to Otb's and D five shows. She wins money
for everyone and she knows nothing about it. She just
knows the look at horses. You when you've done your research,
she's written your notes, you spent weeks on this, but
you seem in a paddock. Is there something that can
change your mind from what you see?
Speaker 3 (13:44):
One hundred If a horse is washed out, if a
horse is really lathered up, really sweating a lot. You
see a lot of white foam on their neck or
under their legs, that's a sign that they're agitated, they're
overheating a little bit, and that can be a real
sign that the expression is they're going to run their
race before they get the starting gate, and they kind
(14:04):
of over exert themselves before they even get to the
starting gate. So if you see a horse like that,
you go, ah, that's not the greatest sign in the world,
because they're exerting way too much energy before the gates
even open. Sometimes a horse you also want to see
when they come out on the track, because sometimes they'll
be walking around the paddock and they're like doodle doodle,
and you're like, is this a claiming race?
Speaker 1 (14:23):
Like what is this?
Speaker 3 (14:24):
And then all of a sudden, All of a sudden,
you'll see they step out onto the track and their
whole body puffs up right and you go, okay, it's
game time. Now they're ready to roll. And uh so
it's you know, it just depends. You want to see
the ears perked up, you want to see them alert.
And I have a good friend of mine who rides horses,
and she goes, you're always looking for the.
Speaker 1 (14:42):
Right type of crazy, which is like spot exactly.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
It's like you want a horse that's a little keyed up,
but not too keyed up and uh and so yeah,
but there's definitely those kind of physical signs that you
can see that that can kind of turn you on
on or off to a horse. Absolutely, how shiny their
coat is, something just that simple I can really indicate like, oh,
this horse is really feeling good. This horse might be,
you know, just really feeling at the top, or or
maybe is having a little bit of an off day.
Speaker 2 (15:12):
You are fantastic. I hope you'll come back on with
us again. Absolutely anytime, this professor, can we call you professor? Absolutely,
I'm married a school teacher. Oh yeah, that's your story
is absolutely amazing, awesome, I appreciate your time, no my pleasure.
Speaker 1 (15:27):
Thank you so much for having me. All Right, Matt DeSantis,
everybody
And we're joined here.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
Right in front of us one of the best NYRA
Bets handicappers, Matt DeSantis, and he has one of the
most interesting stories I think we've ever heard.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
I love this all the years we've been marketing together.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
So Matt described, before you got into horse racing, what
were you doing.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
I was a college professor of political science for fifteen
years and loved it. I taught at a university Texa
sell Passer, George Mansion University. You had a really good job.
I had a really good job. I had a great job.
I had a good you know, health insurance, dental plan,
the whole nine yards. But I've had a passion for
horse racing since I was eleven years old.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
My dad took me to the track of Penn National.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
I turned allowance money into double that and was hooked
ever since. And during the pandemic, I started a podcast
just on the side as a hobby, and over the
next few years it really caught on, and luckily two
years ago there was an opportunity to make a transition
to my life and move up to here, to New
York and start doing horse racing and covering it as
a handicapper and analyst for Nyra Bets.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
Well the dream man. That is such a dream, it
really is.
Speaker 4 (01:02):
So you've been doing it for two years now, and
I know it was there like a rookie newcomer, like
who does this handicapper think he is?
Speaker 1 (01:11):
It's funny.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
There was the very first video I did, because I
definitely had that imposter syndrome. The first day I came
up here, I was like, man, I see all these
other people, Andy Serling at kh Clamont, all the great
people up here at in Iira.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
I'm thinking, man, do I belong?
Speaker 3 (01:23):
I'm some college professor with some you know, academic down
here in Virginia.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
What am I doing? And the very first video.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
I did was for the Haskell Stakes a couple of
years ago, and I gave out a horse go rocket
ride and it was, like I said, it was like
a second day on the job, and I kind of
lost track of the day, and all of a sudden
I realized the Haskell's up next down at Monmouth Park,
and I look up and go rocket ride with something
like three to one on the morning line, and he
had floated all the way up to eleven to one,
(01:50):
And I think to myself, Oh, my god, I'm gonna
look like an idiot. This horse is dead on the board,
nobody's betting him. Wins by three lengths. And once that happened,
I was like, alright, I'm good for a while. I
can give out some bad picks and I still got
enough credit that. Yeah, I kind of know what I'm
talking about.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
I guess.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
So, like he said, you have to earn and pay
your dues and stuff like that, but after two years
you've had a lot of great picks and stuff like that.
So what goes into looking at the board, looking at
these horses and trying to place money. Let's just say
for a small time better that loves you know, I
don't really want to open my wallet up. How did
they get from opening their wallet up to placing the bet?
Speaker 1 (02:29):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (02:29):
I think the biggest thing is just feeling confident in
your opinion and knowing the right type of bet to make.
I think so oftentimes people want to jump right into
the deep end of the swimming pool. Oh I want
to play a pick five, a pick six. I see
these huge payouts. That's gonna be really exciting. That's not
a great way to start betting. That's not going to
be a good experience for you. You're gonna waste a
lot of money putting those tickets together, because you're gonna
(02:50):
be just putting together really expensive tickets that don't hit.
Start with a win bet, I mean, don't don't overthink
this thing, you know, start with a win place bet.
You know, start with something simple and exactly trying to
pick the top or an exact the box where they
can finish in whichever order, and really start to learn
how to analyze races. I think the number one thing
the old adages pace makes the race. So the very
first thing you look at is just look at the
(03:11):
pace of the race. Which horses are going to be
up in the lead, which horses are going to be
sitting midpack, Which horses are going to be coming.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
From the all the way in the back.
Speaker 3 (03:18):
How does the pace of a particular race set up
and help some types of those horses. Is there no
other speed in the race other than one horse? Well,
in that case, hey, maybe I want to put a
little bit money of this front runner who might not
face any pressure and go all the way around.
Speaker 1 (03:31):
Is there are a lot of pace in the race.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
In that case, Hey, who are my closers, who are
these horses going to be coming running late? So just
looking at some of the basics. And the great part
about Nira Betes is we have one oh one handicapping
and betting tutorials yeah on the app as well as
on our YouTube page that really talk fans through that
and explain in real time and using real examples, how
they can feel more confident in that stuff.
Speaker 4 (03:50):
Since you become I'm gonna have to use this word
a professional, Since you've become a professional, what are some
of the old adage things you didn't know until you
started hanging around that crew, and what unique things do
you bring to the table that you don't think a
lot of people look at.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
Yeah, so I think one of the things that I
definitely learned, maybe but even before I came up here
was kind of the art of the cutback, and so
when horses cut back from certain distances. So we just
saw horse ways and means when the bed of roses
a couple of races go. She's such a good filly,
such a great sprinter, but last year's a three year old,
she was running in what we would say two turned races.
(04:26):
She was going longer because she was a very precocious
horse who had a lot of talent, but going a
mile on a sixteenth the mile and eighth, that's not
what she did best. And as soon as they cut
her back to one turn man, she blossomed and she
really became a great horse. So learning the art of
the cutback and learning that you know, going from a
mile to six furlongs is always a really great cutback distance,
and things like that. And then some of the things
(04:47):
that I always look for is sometimes you'll see horses
make surface switches going from dirt to turf, and when
they make that transition, a lot of times you'll see
they'll run a significantly better speed figure, which is a
term with a or a figure that we have in
our sport. And what I always love doing is finding
the horse that's gonna run second time on a new surface,
but they've stepped up in class. So let's say they
(05:09):
were a claiming horse, they go to the new surface,
they run pretty well. Now they're gonna run in the
stakes race. Hey, I want to bet that horse because
now all of a sudden they've gotten better, and the
trainer and the connections know, hey, we got something on
our hands here. Let's step this one up and you're
still gonna get a big price. So I love playing
second off a surface switch at little angles like that.
But uh yeah, it's always fun. You're in the great
(05:30):
part about this sport. You learn every day talking to.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
Matt DeSantis from nyr Bets and all right, so we're
you know, we've had Flavion Proud on the show. Many
of these riders on the show, man he's riding today.
Are there some riders that aren't riding today? And and
do you judge them and say, well, this guy rode
ten races yesterday.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
Man, he's he's kind of hot.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
I mean, what are some of the things for you
that go into you know, picking the horse tomorrow? Yeah's
who's the rider? You know, things like that. It definitely matters.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
You generally want to see a that has some experience
at the track, whether they rode today versus yesterday. You know,
maybe not the most important, but you want to know
that they've written this track before, so they know how
the turf course plays, how does the main track play.
Things like that potential biases. The nice part about tomorrow
is a jockey like umbertel Rispili, who's the jockey of
journalism who's based out in California. Well, he came east
(06:20):
just to get some experience riding at Saratoga before the
Belmont Stakes tomorrow when he's on journalism. So everybody that's
riding tomorrow is writing today. And you definitely do want
to pay attention to hot jockeys. I ride Ortiz, you
in your Flavian prat. These jockeys know how to win
up here in New York. Johnny Velaska is a Hall
of famer, So you definitely want to pay attention when
(06:41):
they get on a hot streak because those can last
for a week or two at a time. And when
a jockey just is feeling confident and just kind of
sees the race the right way, they can see where
the hole is going to open up, they can feel
the pace as it plays out, and you definitely want
to be paying attention to those types of things.
Speaker 4 (06:56):
I tell everybody nobody knows. Nobody knows. As much as
they want to tell you, nobody knows.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
Huh.
Speaker 4 (07:02):
His father in law used to tell us, talk to
the jockeys. Jackeys always know. They're the ones who know
they do. Now, who do you rely on for your
tips and you're like inside info.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
You know. It's funny.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
I don't rely on a lot of inside info because
if you talk to certainly, everybody's horse looks amazing, everybody's
horse is about to win the Kentucky Derby, and it's like, no,
they're not, you know so, but you're right.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
The jockeys do generally know.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
And I remember I have a colleague, Darwin and Viscaya,
and the thing is a lot of the jockeys up
here are Hispanic and so in the Spanish speaking, and
Darwin speaks to them in their native language. So they're
very comfortable talking to Darwin about all the things. And
I remember last year Darwin comes into my office last
June and said, Matthew, there's a horse that Bill Mott has,
(07:48):
sovereignty Junior Alarado.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
He loves this horse. He says he's the best horse
in Bill Mott has. And I go, all right, and
I just write down sovereignty. Man. That that one paid
off pretty nicely. So you know, those jockeys they know
right away.
Speaker 3 (08:01):
They know right away because they've been on thousands of
horses and they know when they're under something special. And
Junior absolutely knew he was on something special with sovereignty.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Right away between being on the other side where like
these people are betting, they love the sport, things like that,
to now like telling them and giving them tips. You know,
Andy Sterling comes down a lot. He's like, people will
yell you sucked out. Oh yeah, you know you can't
be right all but now so you got to have
thick skin walking around here.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
You do.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
And I think the key is you want to be
the one thing that I love about my job. And
maybe this is a carryover from being a professor. Is
I like showing my work, So I don't just like going, hey,
bet the four horse.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Why why should I bet the four horse?
Speaker 3 (08:43):
And then I'll if you go to Nyra Betes, if
you go to our YouTube page, I explain why I
like a horse.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
You know, I like the four horse in this race.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
Why, Okay, well I think they have a pace advantage,
or the jockey's really hot, or I like the pedigree in.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
This particular instance, or whatever the case might be.
Speaker 3 (08:58):
And that way, even if the four horse might not
win that race, you at least understand what my logic
was going into it, and then you can take it
or leave it. If you're a fan, and I always
tell people the most important opinion is your own. And
the stuff that we give you, whether it's Andy or
myself or anybody here up here, it maybe helps give
you an idea. Maybe you give a second look at
a horse because oh, geez, Andy likes this horse.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
I didn't really take a look at this one.
Speaker 3 (09:20):
Huh. I should take a second second, you know, look.
And those sorts of things like those are really valuable insights.
But it doesn't mean, oh, well, Matthew had this pick.
Therefore I should just replicate what Matthew had. And the
other thing is, listen, if you're winning thirty thirty five
percent of your races and picks, it's kind of like baseball.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
You if you.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
Fail seventy percent of the time, you're going in the
Hall of Fame, you know, And so it's kind of
the same way. And you know, in horse racing, if
you pick right thirty percent of the time, you're making
a lot of money because you're hitting on five, six,
eight to one horses that are paying ten, twelve, sixteen dollars.
And at the end of the day, you look back,
you go, well, geez, I bet twenty bucks to day.
(09:59):
I ended up with eight, that's a pretty good day.
Hell so yeah, just a little like things like that,
you can, you know, build up your bank roll over time.
Speaker 4 (10:06):
Let's talk about Saturday and the big one. I'm really
looking forward to it, man. I I know that Nyra
wants a triple crown possibility and we're not gonna get that.
But I love how it's head to head sovereignty and
journalism and then we're throwing out six shooters that could
all possibly win this. What are your thoughts just with
this this race coming up tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (10:24):
Well, it's a thrilling race.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
You got the Derby winner, you got the Preaknu winner
who happened to be the Derby runner up. You got
the third place finisher in the Derby. Who oh, by
the way, the half brother to last year's Belmont Stakes
winner door Knock Idot who was also the half brother. No,
it's a Bazaza is the half brother to dor Knock,
who won last year's Belmont, and also the half brother
(10:45):
to Mage, who won the twenty twenty three Kentucky Derby.
So this is a horse that ate agree and and
then you have a horse like Rodriguez. Bob Baffer's bringing
him from California. You got to take that or a series.
Stilly Todd Pletcher's got a couple of runners. Crudo is
a long shot that I really think could run a
big race tomorrow. So it's gonna be a thrilling race,
and sovereignty and journalism have an opportunity to really make
(11:08):
an impression in this sport. And I'm gonna some of
the old timers listening to this might remember this. If
you're just a fan, now, go to YouTube. Look up
Affirmed and AlIdar. Those are two horses from nineteen seventy seven.
They finished all three Triple Crown races a neck a
park from each other. They had a great rivalry, and
I think that's what we're gonna see between sovereignty and journalism.
These are when I see them out in the paddock.
(11:29):
They were out the other day. I got to see
them on the track. Impeccable animals. They are specimens that
just stand heads and shoulders above everybody else, just in
the way they're built, the way that they filled out,
the way that they move. They are incredible creatures and
it's gonna be an epic showdown to see when they
hit the top of the stretch. And it's really splitting
hairs to differentiate between those two horses. I love the
(11:51):
way you talk about them and how they're built and
all that kind of stuff, pedigree.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
You know, they don't race as much as they used to.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
Know, how important is it for some of them to
win so they can put him out to stud that
kind of stuff. Yeah, and after this, I know I
always bore Andy with a lot of these questions. How
much will the winner of the Belmont race after tomorrow?
Speaker 3 (12:10):
Yeah, it's a good question, and it depends on who
the winner of the Belmont is to some extent. If
it's a horse like Sovereignty, you'd have to imagine they're
going to run in the travers later this summer up
here in Saratoga, and then ultimately the Breeders' Cup Classic
is going to be the end goal at del Mar
this November as a four year old. If they bring
this horse back as a four year old and they
decided not to retire him, then he's probably gonna go
(12:30):
overseas and racing like the Saudi Cup and the UAE
and the Dubai World Cup, and ran Russ again run
against some of the best horses in Japan. And the
rest of the world. So it's gonna be a really
thrilling now for us. Like journalism wins, he's probably gonna
go back to California and run in some of those
Pacific Classic, some of those races that we saw a horse.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Like flight Line run in a few years ago.
Speaker 3 (12:48):
So it's gonna be a lot of fun to see
how they, you know, depending on who wins, what their
future campaign is. But I think in the case of
Sovereignty and Journalism, we're going to see them run three
four more times in all likelihood throughout their career, and
maybe just as the rest of this year a little
bit in their four year old campaign. But uh, that's
the hope is that you get to see it a
little bit more.
Speaker 1 (13:06):
That's awesome.
Speaker 4 (13:07):
We have two women in our lives that just have
an eye. Johna Dibble when she left, she can for
some reason look at horses when they're walking, not even paddock,
when they're coming out to the gate, and she just
has an eye to pick winners.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
Yeah, but that's why I like what you're saying. She
can tell if they're competent or not yet at them.
Speaker 4 (13:25):
And then part timeer Jenna is just winning people. We
go to Otb's and D five shows. She wins money
for everyone and she knows nothing about it. She just
knows the look at horses. You when you've done your research,
she's written your notes, you spent weeks on this, but
you seem in a paddock. Is there something that can
change your mind from what you see?
Speaker 3 (13:44):
One hundred If a horse is washed out, if a
horse is really lathered up, really sweating a lot. You
see a lot of white foam on their neck or
under their legs, that's a sign that they're agitated, they're
overheating a little bit, and that can be a real
sign that the expression is they're going to run their
race before they get the starting gate, and they kind
(14:04):
of over exert themselves before they even get to the
starting gate. So if you see a horse like that,
you go, ah, that's not the greatest sign in the world,
because they're exerting way too much energy before the gates
even open. Sometimes a horse you also want to see
when they come out on the track, because sometimes they'll
be walking around the paddock and they're like doodle doodle,
and you're like, is this a claiming race?
Speaker 1 (14:23):
Like what is this?
Speaker 3 (14:24):
And then all of a sudden, All of a sudden,
you'll see they step out onto the track and their
whole body puffs up right and you go, okay, it's
game time. Now they're ready to roll. And uh so
it's you know, it just depends. You want to see
the ears perked up, you want to see them alert.
And I have a good friend of mine who rides horses,
and she goes, you're always looking for the.
Speaker 1 (14:42):
Right type of crazy, which is like spot exactly.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
It's like you want a horse that's a little keyed up,
but not too keyed up and uh and so yeah,
but there's definitely those kind of physical signs that you
can see that that can kind of turn you on
on or off to a horse. Absolutely, how shiny their
coat is, something just that simple I can really indicate like, oh,
this horse is really feeling good. This horse might be,
you know, just really feeling at the top, or or
maybe is having a little bit of an off day.
Speaker 2 (15:12):
You are fantastic. I hope you'll come back on with
us again. Absolutely anytime, this professor, can we call you professor? Absolutely,
I'm married a school teacher. Oh yeah, that's your story
is absolutely amazing, awesome, I appreciate your time, no my pleasure.
Speaker 1 (15:27):
Thank you so much for having me. All Right, Matt DeSantis,
everybody
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