The Dismal Science
Join the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell GAICD for this weekly deep dive into the latest economic news from Australia and around the world. From interest rates to trade wars and everything in between, we have you covered.
Episodes
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When the RBA cut rates back in February this year it sounded cautious. This time it sounded confident. At least kind of. It also sounded pretty uncertain about the global economy...but then who isn't these days? This week's episode of the pod gives its quick take on the May 2025 rate cut and the prospects for more to come.
For more insights from the AICD's Chief Economist...
In this week's episode, we unpack the post-election market rally, Trump's unexpected retreat on tariffs and renewed trade talks with China, fresh data on wages and unemployment, and what to expect from next week's RBA meeting. A quick but sharp look at the key economic signals shaping the week.
For more from AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, head to: https://www.aicd.com.a...
The RBA's new Monetary Policy Board meets later this month to consider the case for a second rate cut in the current easing cycle. What will it make of Australia's election campaign, this week's inflation numbers, the recent rash of international forecast downgrades from the IMF, WTO and World Bank, and ongoing global trade policy uncertainty? Still high on Easter chocolate, the pod offers its unsolicited ad...
Instead of the traditional Easter Egg, the Dismal Science pod has a quick take on the implications of 'Liberation Day' and its aftermath in its Easter basket. It's tariff free! (Note, contents may include some discussion of trade policy tools.)
For more economic insights from the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, including his weekly economic update, head to: https://www.a...
In this live from the Australian Governance Summit episode, hosts Raphael Dixon and Mark Thurwal analyze current economic and geopolitical developments.
They discuss the "Trump trade" market fluctuations, US CHIPS Act's mixed impact on semiconductor manufacturing, and China's growing chip capabilities. The conversation covers Germany's potential defense spending increase, US steel tariffs affecting Australia, contradictions in US o...
This week on the Dismal Science, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest Australian GDP figures, revealing the end of the per capita recession, though productivity remains a concern with a third consecutive quarter of falling GDP per hour worked.
Turning their attention to the global stage, they examine the evolving economic landscape in the United States, with the Atlanta Fed now forecasting contraction and the impact of newly impleme...
This week, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest inflation data and react to recent rate cuts, examining whether the soft landing declared by the IMF is truly secure.
We're back, and we force Mark to take a victory lap for his February rate cut prediction! We dive into the details of the RBA's decision and its implications for future cuts.
Then, we dissect the market freakout following the release of Deepseek's open-source AI model. What does it say about AI market leaders' valuations, the effectiveness of export controls and the future of AI?
Finally, w...
We're taking a break from our usual format to look at some of the big technological and economic themes of 2024, and where they are going in 2025 and into the future.
- Mark and Raph discuss the explosion of AI and where it might be headed, as well as its impact on financial markets.
- We contemplate what might constitute the next big wave of global innovation.
- Will AI pro...
This week we are joined by Su-Lin Ong, Managing Director, Chief Economist & Senior Corporate Relationship Manager of RBC Capital Markets. Together Mark and Su-lin reflect on Australia's economic conditions and the RBA's 2024 performance.
They unpack why the RBA has held interest rates steady for so long – and what this means for Australia's economic outlook, including a (mild) disagreement on t...
The RBA keeps interest rates on hold, but the big news is a change in tone that suggests Mark's long predicted February rate cut is back on the table.
Also, Mark looks back at his predictions from a year ago, revisiting his forecasts for inflation, unemployment, and economic growth.
Get your ticket to AGS: https://www.aicd.com.au/events/australian-governance-summit.html
Subscribe to Mark's weekly column here: htt...
This week, we examine Australia's latest soft GDP figures. The headline number is a weak 0.3% quarterly expansion, the lowest rate of annual growth since the pandemic with private sector demand contributing nothing to this meager growth figure.
Will the RBA stay the course with rates on hold in the face of a deepening per capita recession and falling living standards?
This week, the Dismal Science turns its attention to Europe's economic powerhouse - Germany.
We examine the country's recent economic struggles, exploring the reasons behind its faltering performance, including the war in Ukraine, rising energy costs, and the rise of Chinese manufacturing.
We discuss whether these challenges are merely cyclical or point to deeper structural issues with the ...
This week on the Dismal Science, Mark and Raph take a look at the latest Australian labour market figures and what it means for Mark's increasingly shaky call for a February rate cut.
Is the RBA being too pessimistic about what the unemployment rate associated with full employment needs to be?
Plus, the Dismal Science takes a metaphorical visit to Baku for COP 29 and finds "upside-down geop...
Join Mark and Raph to unpack the potential economic implications of the US election result.
We examine some of the key economic policy pledges that President Elect President Donald Trump made during the campaign, from tariffs to taxes, and discuss the possible ramifications for interest rates, inflation, growth, and other economic variables.
President Trump's proposals could send US average tariff rates to...
This week on The Dismal Science, we examine the latest economic data releases, including wage growth figures, consumer and business sentiment surveys, and the AICD's Director Sentiment Index.
The Wage Price Index showed annual growth slowing to 3.5%, a welcome development for the RBA in its fight against inflation. But with productivity growth stalling, will this be enough to see interest rate cuts in th...
The big news this week is the US presidential election. Markets are reacting in real time as results come in - we look at the volatility and what it means for Australia.
Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged for the eighth consecutive month.
We examine the RBA's latest forecasts, which suggest a slightly softer economic outlook than previously predicted, with lower GDP growth, higher unem...
This week we look at the latest Australian inflation figures.
The September quarter CPI figures came in slightly better than expected, with the headline numbers showing a decrease in inflation. This was largely driven by government rebates and falling fuel prices. However, services inflation remains stubbornly high.
Additionally, some commentators are suggesting a December rate cut is possi...
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