Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Navigating today's real estate market can be tricky. Want to
buy or sell a house, finance or insure a house,
or stuck with a house.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
And don't know what to do.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Florida Talk real Estate has been your local one stop
real estate shop since twenty twelve. Get the advice you
need from your local real estate pros. Here are your hosts,
Jim Depola and Johnny c Live on Real Radio.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Good Good morning.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
I was waiting for Ross since he's sitting in the
big chair today. I said, you're at Ross, and then
we have blank air air if.
Speaker 4 (00:50):
If we were to discuss it, I may have.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
We did. We did about three minutes ago. Man, you're
in the big chair. You gotta gotta play with the
big boys in the room. Hey, Happy South Florida, everybody.
Johnny has a well deserved day off. He's with his
family on some kind of musical adventure. So I hope
he enjoys and joys and joys, and I hope the
(01:13):
weather holds up. For Man, it's been cloudy all day yesterday,
but it didn't rain anywhere I was. Did it rain
anybody where? Were you?
Speaker 4 (01:20):
Guys?
Speaker 2 (01:20):
Were just overcast all day long.
Speaker 4 (01:22):
Just overcast and I kept on looking up my phone
to say, like, is it going to rain today? And
it was no chance of rain the whole entire.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
Day where I was anyway, Yeah, it was crazy and
it was really dark all day long. I did not
like waking up this morning. We're getting close to that
daylight savings time change, isn't it. It's a little dark. Yeah,
I heard so much darker today?
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Is it?
Speaker 4 (01:43):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (01:43):
I don't know when is it?
Speaker 3 (01:45):
Is it November third? I think there's when it changes.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Oh my god. I don't want to fall back. I
don't like falling back.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
The extra hour of you know sleep technically for one day.
I don't.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
Yeah, when I when I started my own company, after
you know, after working for corporate, you know, corporation for
so long. When I started my own company, I promised
myself that I would never fall back, and I would
just adjust the times to fit the old schedule. So
if something was at uh, you know, eight o'clock, in
(02:19):
my mind, it would be nine o'clock, right, But and
I would just adjust except for government meetings. Right, if
there was a government meeting, you can't you can't miss it,
right because it's at the time. But every time I've
tried it. I failed miserably. I'd last like a month
and then I would give up and I would slide
into the regular time.
Speaker 4 (02:36):
That's trying to It's like going, you know, trying to
use meters.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
Yeah, the metrics, metrics.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
Try to stick to the metrics or.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
This stupid fahrenheit celsius that drives me crazy when they
talk about celsius degrees. I don't I don't get it.
So I'm a fahrenheit guy.
Speaker 5 (02:59):
I heard Itoop good U metric unit joke the other day.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
I saw it.
Speaker 5 (03:03):
It was if if US Americans smile, then do Europeans skilometer? Anyway,
if Johnny were here, he would have laughed, but he
also would have introduced everybody what the show was.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
I know, we go live. I think that. I think
Mike is just asked to be in the big chair. Sorry, Mike,
I chewed it up.
Speaker 4 (03:28):
No, I'm just a gentle reminder that you're not Johnny.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Well the gentle reminder person. The person gentle reminding is
Mike Ralph from the mortgage firm, otherwise known as the
mortgage guy to us at everybody here, Mike, welcome to
the show. Thank you, good morning, and the person sitting
in the big chair today is Ross Kamernis from Bright
Winning Insurance Juno Beach office, the only office when you're
thinking of insurance in Florida and now Georgia. Yeah right,
(03:54):
he's in Georgia now, and Mike is, uh Florida, Georgia.
I always get this from South Carolina's right, Tennessee, Colorado, Virginia,
and Virginia. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you're growing. I just trying
to own conglomerate.
Speaker 5 (04:10):
I just talked to someone this week who is considering
Virginia or Colorado, so ah, okay, I can help you.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
Yeah, I either go or by one in each.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
Is that super extensive to do, Mike?
Speaker 6 (04:23):
I mean, just like what do you gotta think a
test or something in each state you.
Speaker 5 (04:28):
You got to there's a course requirement, so you know,
something like first state something like eight hours of individual
state regulation learning and then you pay, you pay for
the you know, pay annual annual fee, you take the course,
you pass some level of tests, right, and then you
(04:50):
pay their registration.
Speaker 6 (04:51):
Require big differences from one state to another with the
regulations that are required.
Speaker 5 (04:58):
I'm trying to think of any differences at all, whatsoever?
Speaker 2 (05:01):
And none.
Speaker 5 (05:03):
So now I learned the same thing over and over again.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
Right.
Speaker 4 (05:06):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Yeah, So there's no really federal performing right, because it's
all about conforming federally.
Speaker 5 (05:13):
Uh yeah, I mean yes, all the all the regulations
for residential lending come nationally, right, they come from the
federal gun.
Speaker 4 (05:21):
Right.
Speaker 5 (05:21):
There's some state stuff that I guess individual finds, you know,
may vary by state. If you're like breaking the rules,
if you're doing maybe it's like advertising discrepancies, or you're
doing things like targeting certain groups in certain neighborhood, you know,
things like that, those would be local and state kind
of regulation or things that you could you could break.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Those rules that totally.
Speaker 5 (05:44):
Yeah, maybe I should pay more attention in the class.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
The difference. But when you don't break the rules, you
don't have to worry about that. I'm not a rule breaker. Yeah,
you don't have to worry about it all.
Speaker 5 (05:53):
At least not in my professional life.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (05:57):
Personally.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
Yeah, I wanted just to do a little thing about
Hurricane Milton from was it last week or the week
before last?
Speaker 5 (06:05):
Two weeks ago if you're talking about this most recent week.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
No, yeah, it was the week before last. Yeah, the
week before last week. It was the ninth, ninth, tenth. Okay,
so we're the nineteen, so ten days, a week and
a half ago, Yeah, exactly. So they have a little
bit more information about the tornadoes, because I got to
tell you, I've been a little like, very curious about
this whole tornado thing because I covered so many hurricanes
(06:30):
and lived through so many. I've never seen tornadoes like
this before in my life.
Speaker 4 (06:34):
Weather modification.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
Yeah, well, yeah, yeah, you know, someone control those stupid
contrails from the from the planes. Who's talking? Who's talking? Now?
How you did take you?
Speaker 4 (06:47):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (06:47):
So did you watch The Wizard of Oz at some
point in your youth?
Speaker 2 (06:52):
Of course? So that was with with David Gilmore, not
what Pink Floyd. I've even done the Pink Voyd show.
Speaker 5 (07:00):
You you played the soundtrack Dark Side of the Moon.
Was it Dark Side or is it the Dark Side?
Okaya's Dark Side of the Moon? I think right, yeah, yeah,
Dark Side of the.
Speaker 2 (07:08):
Moon as a soundtrack, and it lines up or whatever.
I think after the third Roar of the Lion you
turned it on. Okay, I think that's what you done.
Speaker 3 (07:15):
I've never heard of that my life.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Yeah, I've heard it. If you turn on the movie
and have it the Pink Floyd, the whole thing set up.
Then after the third roar of the Lion, you know them,
Oh okay, okay, then you hit that. That's exactly when
you hit play on on Pink Floyd, No kidd, and
(07:37):
it matches pretty good, No kid, Yeah, it's really just
match pretty good. Yeah. I have a little off the
reserve and enjoy it. Yeah, Yeah, it's fun. If anybody
hasn't try that, you haven't never heard of that?
Speaker 4 (07:49):
No, I've heard of it. I've just never never done it.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
You're never stupid enough. This was like, let me try this.
Speaker 4 (07:55):
I mean one, I got to track down a Pink
Floyd Dark Side of the Moon album, that's true, and
then I have to track down a copy of Wizard
of Oz.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Which has the three which has the three roars in it, right.
Speaker 4 (08:08):
And then magically put that together. And I just haven't.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
That's too much. It's not that hard, that's too technically.
Speaker 5 (08:14):
You can get that album at at like, what's the bookstore?
Speaker 4 (08:18):
Is a board?
Speaker 6 (08:18):
No?
Speaker 2 (08:19):
No, why are you guys talking about album? Why do
you just get it online so you can actually get
your record?
Speaker 5 (08:23):
He wants to do the you got to buy a
record player.
Speaker 4 (08:28):
Record player.
Speaker 5 (08:29):
Yeah, yeah, okay, let's you know, those needles are very
hard to find. Remember that when that was a scare
record needles were going to become scarce.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
Yeah. I scratched up my records really really bad all
the time too.
Speaker 5 (08:43):
That was.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
I didn't do that. It was one of those.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Guys come buyer House with.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
Jimmy d That's why they games, Damn man, Rob. So
I wanted to go a little bit over the I
wanted to go a little bit over the tornado thing
because to me, it was really, like I said, fascinating
about how many there were. Apparently it isn't. It isn't
as unusual as I thought. That was surprising to me itself.
(09:12):
But anyway, what they found out is now that the
smoke cleared, there were total fifteen tornadoes in South Florida.
Two of them got to EF three's, which is one
hundred and thirty miles an hour or more, so pretty strong.
Two of them pretty strong. One was in Palm Beach County,
the other one was in Glades County. There were four
(09:34):
total in Palm Beach County. And the other thing I
thought that was interesting about this was some of the
other some of the other hurricanes have had almost as
many hurricanes as this. There were thirteen from Ian, thirteen
confirmed tornadoes, I said, hurricanes, I'm sorry, tornadoes. Thirteen confirmed
(09:56):
tornadoes from Hurricane Ian. That was split over two days.
So I thought that was interesting that there were tornadoes
over two days and instead of just the one. They
also noticed that where is it, I'm sorry, I'm looking here.
Pombach County in the state has the highest tornado count
(10:19):
on record, with one hundred and ninety three tornadoes from
nineteen fifty to twenty twenty three, So over seventy three years,
we've had one hundred and ninety three tornadoes in Palm
Beach County. I thought that was kind of interesting too.
So we certainly don't talk about it much. Yeah, you
don't hear about it much, but apparently you know, and
(10:40):
most of the tornadoes I think I'm thinking. My theory
is a lot of them are really weak, like they're
just barely tornadoes.
Speaker 4 (10:48):
Or are they're an uninhabited area.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
Or are they going to uninhabited And that's why they
were saying it was kind of hard to even know
about the four that hit here because some of them
had no Some of them they did determine how strong
they were by the track of damage, and a couple
of these there wasn't any even any track of damage
that they could do, so they had to estimate what
it was. But I thought that was kind of interesting.
(11:12):
So tornadoes isn't, you know, not necessarily as unusual as
probably a lot of people think, But the power of
these were definitely unusual. There were very few EF three's
or more that have hit in the whole history of Florida.
Speaker 4 (11:26):
And as we've become more populated and build more houses
and build more structures, we might start to notice them more.
Speaker 5 (11:34):
Yes, less, yes, lessa just like hurricane damage.
Speaker 4 (11:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Oh, and that reminds me speaking to about hurricanes. There
was a gentleman who sent me a very very long
email which I really appreciated last week after the show
because we were talking about that nineteen twenty something hurricane
and who wasn't here last week? I feel like somebody
wasn't here last week? Mike, were you not here last week?
(12:00):
I was definitely here? Okay, So Ross, we had a
crew me you were, maybe you were, maybe I was.
Speaker 4 (12:07):
I remember seeing Jim Yeah, out of it.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
The reason why I'm bringing it up is there we
were talking about the unnamed storm hurricane in the nineteen
twenties that really it broke the damn and it created
all this damage. I had a gentleman that is a
history buff, you could tell, and he wrote me a
very long email about this. I don't remember everything and
I couldn't find it today, but I'm going to talk
(12:32):
about it next week because he said he was making
some corrections, so some of this stuff I said last
week might not have been as accurate. I was going
off of memory from an article I wrote probably in
nineteen ninety thirty four years ago, so I probably wasn't
one hundred percent accurate. But I do care about being
an accurate on the show. We actually care about that.
Speaker 5 (12:50):
Who was the history buff? Is it a regular It was.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
Just a regular listener? Yeah, he was no, and he
was very very polite, and he says, I listen to
you guys all the time. But I could see that
he said I got it wrong, and I'm like, oh,
I want to read this, but I was driving because
it was right after the show, and then by the
time I tried to get back to it last night,
I couldn't find it, so I know I'm going to
find it, and I'll make any corrections that I have
(13:14):
to make at that point.
Speaker 4 (13:16):
But okay, how you're going to retract it?
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Yeah, yeah, we'll not retract. I just want to clarify.
I want to clarify because I wasn't trying to skew
the information one way or though that was just based
off memory. Everywhere these days, I know you had to
fact check everything now, right, And a couple other things
I wanted to talk about. We're going to get into
some short insurance things later on in the show, but
(13:39):
I wanted to talk about something that I thought was
kind of interesting Florida. Here's an article from the Pombach
Post Florida Property Citizens Florida property inspections paying off for citizens.
So apparently one of the things that citizens did was
they made sure that they funded to have inspectors to
(14:00):
go out to all the properties pre hurricane. Not just
pre hurricane, but as policies are written to really make
sure that there isn't any problems with the properties beforehand
so they can notify the homeowner. You need to correct
this and this and this so that if the house
gets damaged in the future. Citizens isn't on the hook
(14:22):
for stuff that they shouldn't be on the hook for.
And supposedly they're saying that those checks, if you will,
or the checks on property inspection checks are really saving
a lot of money. They think that they they did
since twenty twenty two, they've done four hundred thousand of
(14:43):
these well I'm sorry, I'm take that back. They've increased
the property holder policy holder inspections by one hundred and
sixty six percent since June twenty two. But they're thinking
that this year alone, they're going to have done four
hundred thousand of these pre inspections, if you will, and
(15:03):
they think it's saving It's cost them about forty five
million to do those inspections, but they're saying that they
get the forty five million back plus another one hundred
million is savings by.
Speaker 5 (15:18):
Just having the status of the of the home documented
at some.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Point and telling the homeowners they have to correct before
you know, or they're not going to be covered. And
I'm assuming that the homeowners are correcting. I mean, that's
what I'm expecting. So this is a positive thing.
Speaker 4 (15:32):
By the way, you could substitute citizens for ABC insurance company,
Cyz insurance company, because they're all doing it right, right,
So it's not you know, unique to citizens.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
Right right. And but the thing I like about this
is that citizens is taking the responsibility to do and
I think it's a good thing. Anything we could do
in order to save costs for insurance, that's what we
need to be doing right now, because this is really
a crisis in my opinion, the potential for crisis. It
isn't a crisis now. A crisis would be bills aren't
(16:05):
being paid, right, there is enough money to pay the bills, right.
We don't see that on any of the companies yet.
We haven't heard that. They're not even expecting that to happen.
But anything we could do to reduce costs in Florida
for insurance is a good thing. And you've got to
keep if you're on the house and you have insurance,
you got to keep the house up to a certain
standard of responsibility, not just for you but for the community.
Speaker 5 (16:29):
So do they do those inspections ross at any other
time in like the life. Let's say you have citizens
for five years, are they going to inspect it once
a year? Is it just just after the initial policy
or is it kind of random?
Speaker 4 (16:46):
So there they kind of like they just started, like
they're ramping up these inspections. Citizens is doing a lot
of them at renewal or they're requiring an inspection in
order to renew, and they're doing a new business as well,
So this is kind of that first year that they're
doing it. I don't think that there if you had,
(17:07):
if you needed to have your home inspected this year
in order to renew, I don't think they're going to
do it again. Okay, And this is different than like
your winman in your four point This is actually citizens
sending out their own inspector or contracting it correct all
the insurance Whenever a new policy is written, the insurance
companies do some sort of inspection. You may not notice
(17:29):
it as a homeowner because it may just be an
exterior where they come out and just do a quick
look around. Okay, roof looks good, you know, everything looks good.
If it's an older home, they may want to come
inside and schedule a time to do that, and that's
going to be the same thing as a four point inspection.
But they're putting their eyes on it. You know, us
as agents are considered kind of upfront underwriters. Right, we
(17:51):
get a four point Hey, according to this document, does
it meet the requirements in order to go with this
insurance company. It looks good to us of it to them,
but they're still going to want to put their eyes
on it to make sure.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
And it's interesting. One of the things they use as
an example of a person that was threatened to have
their policy canceled if they didn't make a correction was
having a trampoline in the backyard and apparently that's a
violation to some homeowners policies.
Speaker 4 (18:20):
I'm guessing trampolines, pool slides, diving boards, you know, anything
where that can lead to kind of an injury and lawsuit.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
Yeah, so it isn't just about is the roof leaking
or whatever, It's like anything related to the policy. So anyway,
I thought that was interesting. They're saying it saves It
saved them over one hundred million dollars from these inspections.
So that's a good thing. Another another good story, and
I just wanted to wrap up this part made me
feel really good. There was an article on The New
(18:48):
York Times about the student loan modification and public service
employee relief for student loans. They finally this program has
been out two thousand and seven. We've probably been talking
about this program, which we've done through the law office
of Polycrasker since twenty thirteen, twenty fourteen, and they finally
(19:11):
hit their one millionth public service employee that got the
student Wow, the student loan debt really.
Speaker 5 (19:17):
That's that's a ten year program. So that means somebody,
potentially somebody you talked to or you put them onto it,
in twenty twenty three or twenty four they've completed their
student loan repayment.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
Then forgiven. I'm actually getting a little tingle right now.
And I'm not joking. I got a little tingle here
because my skin because you know, we we were very
much apart. I can't say a huge chunk of it,
but we contributed to that whole relief of debt to
public and service employees. There's just an awesome pro awareness. Yeah,
(19:51):
and getting them through the program and having a watch
to go through that. I remember, this student loan debt
relief program is based on your ability to afford your
student loan monthly payment. It isn't related to how much
you owe on the oh on the loan. It's how
much you can afford to pay every month, And there's
(20:12):
an actual, real mathematical formula the federal government does based
on your income and your bills to say, this is
how much we believe that you can pay for your
student loan payment every month. Usually for most people it
was a tiny fraction of what they had to pay, Right, Mike,
You've seen people five hundred dollars a month go down
(20:32):
to twenty five or fifty dollars a month. Right, We've
seen how many people get zero dollars a month, like
just don't have to pay anything, and it counts as
if they're making payments every month. This program for the
publican service employees was really great because after ten years,
whatever you paid, if you were paying zero dollars a
(20:53):
month because that was your income based formula, and you
did that for ten years, you paid zero dollars a month,
but you kept in the program by applying every year.
Ten years later, whatever you owed is just wiped away
and forgiven. So that's what the beauty of this program is.
You're not saddled with the debt forever. Ten years does
(21:15):
sound like a long time, but for most people you're
paying just a fraction of what the monthly payment would be.
Plus you're with a federal government program where the interest
doesn't accrue for not making payments. There's no recruel or
penalty fees of that. It's just hey, based on your income,
you're only supposed to pay twenty five dollars a month,
(21:37):
and as long as you do that, you're in compliance
with the program. So really proud about that, Really happy
to see that we've had a million people. Part of
me is a little sad about it because it's only
a million people since shot out two seven. It should
have been five million or something probably right, But still
a million people have gone through this program. I think
it's awesome. They've saved about sex one hundred and seventy
(22:01):
five billion in student loan debt through this program. One
hundred and seventy five billion.
Speaker 5 (22:08):
Are they basically forgiven that much? Yes, So that savings somebody.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
Savings for the for the homeowner or not the loan
the loan student. Yeah, the student right, or the former student,
or the parent of the student because they have parent
student forgiveness loans too. Where as a parent you.
Speaker 5 (22:27):
Had the parent plus loans. I didn't know those were
eligible for.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
Yes, they're good. Yeah, for ability to pay thing, And
it's basically it's really based on your ability to pay.
So how that program works is, let's say that you're
making I'm making it up. You're making fifty fifty thousand
a year, and your student loan debt is five hundred
dollars a month. Well, based on your mathematical formula that
(22:51):
Paul Krasker will get you through the whole thing, right,
it'll it'll spit out a number. Hey, you're supposed to
pay one hundred and twelve dollars and fifty seven cents
a month. You're supposed to pay nothing based on your thing,
whatever the number is, and then you're locked in for
that number for the year. You make the payments for
a year, then at the end of the year you
have to reapply again. Let's say though, that now you're
(23:12):
not making fifty thousand. You got this great job, and
now you're making one hundred and fifty thousand a year. Well,
that year they recalculate your formula. Now maybe that year
you pay the full five hundred dollars a month. I
don't know, Okay, And then you get through that year
and on the third year, Let's say you lose that
fabulous job and now you're not working anywhere. Okay, Now
(23:34):
you go through the mathematical formula and your result's going
to be and I've seen this happen with many people. Zero.
You're going to pay zero dollars this year, and then
you go through the year, and you just continue to
do that for a public service employee for ten years
and then it's over. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (23:48):
They essentially do like an annual debt to income calculation,
and so they're adding up your income and then they're
adding up your other debt obligation things like your housing
or rent payments, car payments, and they figure out how
much you have leftover that's maybe discretionary and some percentage
like that is how they use So.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
Yeah, and the other thing that's great about this is
that we used it the reason why we started talking
about on our real estate show. Right while we're talking
about student loans back in twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen,
twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen, we were talking about how the
number one drag on the economy at that point was
(24:28):
student loan debt. Right that was the number one drag
on the economy, and they were saying, if the student
loan debt was wiped out, it would supercharge the economy
because there's so much money that's being used for that
that would be spilling into the regular economy if it
wasn't there, because we know most people don't say they're
going to spend it, so.
Speaker 5 (24:48):
Yeah there, and they're you know, they started making changes
in the in the lending, like how you had to
treat the student owned balances, how if you had to
calculate a payment even you know, even if it was
deferred for twelve months or eighteen months, you had to calculate.
And it was impacting people's ability to qualify for mortgages.
So even if you didn't have to make a payment
on your student loan, you were kind of kicking the
can down. It could still impact your ability to quality
(25:11):
still counted it as part of your debt, and so
we still do.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
YEP. So what happens is when Mike goes through the
review process for all customers, he always asked do you
have any student loan debt? And then a lot of
times it's like, oh, we're really going to help you out.
Let's get you over to law as a polycrasker. You
can do that program for free. Guys. There is really
no charge for doing that public loan forgiveness program, but
(25:37):
you have to be sharp enough to understand how to
present the numbers correctly to the federal government. We've seen
many customers. So what most people do is they go
to Paul. The law off is Polycrascer, which is one
of the few private law firms that's allowed to do this.
Mostly it's nonprofit groups. But with Paul, he charges you
(26:00):
a nominal fee to get it going, and then just
a one time fee every year to reapply, and he
puts it in the system so you don't forget to
reapply because so if you don't reapply, you get kicked
out of the program. Yeah, one of my customers was
in the program, Darryl and Amy. They were in the
program for like eight years and they kept paying Paul
every year to reapply. Then one year they called me
(26:22):
up and they said, hey, Jim, they were paying nothing.
They were supposed to be paying about five hundred dollars
a month and they were paying nothing for seven years.
And then he calls me up. He goes, hey, my
student loan bill went up to fifteen hundred dollars a month,
and I'm like, what does Paul have to say about this?
He goes, we didn't use Paul this year. So what
(26:42):
happened was they kind of didn't turn in their numbers correctly.
And basically, when you're o debt, you don't have to
use the joint income. Even if you filed jointly, you
could just use the personal person's the one that owes
the debt. You use their information to determine the ability
(27:04):
to pay. And they didn't do it that way, and
then Paul, they went I told them to go back
to Paul. Didn't know if they can get back in
the program. Right, they did, They got back in the program.
They got lucky.
Speaker 4 (27:13):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (27:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (27:14):
I think there's different ways like when they when you know,
when you talk about debt to income, like how do
they calculate your income? Or they using pay stubs or
they using W two's, are they using tax return? So
I think there's a variety of ways. They're kind of
like options, and so if the idea is to you know,
show the least amount of income, you want to choose
(27:36):
the option that does that.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
I think that's the idea.
Speaker 5 (27:39):
So, whether that's an individual tax return or my portion
of the joint tax return, right, somehow you have to
show that hey, wait a second, that's our household income.
That's nothing to do with my personal.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
Income, right exactly. So, if you're saddled with student loan debt,
or you know somebody that's saddled, or you're a parent
that signed on for student loan debt for you your kid,
give us a call whell I'll get your free consultation.
We're going to tell you exactly the paperwork you need
to give. It's all over the phone. We used to say,
(28:09):
it's ten questions, ten minutes, and you get your answer,
and they're going to give you the law office Polykrasker.
If you give them the correct information, they're going to
give you to the penny what the federal government is
going to ask you to pay every month, and then
you can decide if you want to move forward or
not after you find out the terms. And it's not
just for public service employees, it's not just like government
(28:30):
workers or anything. If you have student loan debt and
it's government backed, they're going to be able to help
you with it. So give us a call. We'd love
to talk to about it, and congratulations on the million
public service employees that went through the program. Let's go
ahead and take a break, and on the flip side,
we're going to talk a little bit about citizens Insurance. Ross.
(28:50):
I get a lot of people that when they're getting
a new home, they'll like actually complain like it's a
dirty worder. It's like, oh man, I have to get
citizens Insurance. So we're going to talk about a little
bit about the myths and the reality of having citizens
Insurance as your insurance policy holder. And we're going to
do that on the flip side. Sounds good, Okay, cool?
Speaker 1 (29:27):
This is Florida Talk Real Estate with Jim Depola and
Johnny C. Got a question for the show. Call us
live at one eight seven seven ninety seven sixty nine
sixty nine.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
Hey, everyone, is Florida Talk Real Estate, Happy South Florida.
I forgot that I was Jimmy D today placing Johnny
C on a well deserved musical venture today with his family.
I hope he's doing great. We got a lot of
things to talk about. We're going to talk about a
little bit about the reputation of Citizens Insurance. Later on
(29:58):
we're going to be talking about why are the mortgage
rates going up? Because they are going up and you
can't believe how high they're going up, how fast, and
what they expect to happen in the future. But before
we get into some of this stuff, one of our
people on Facebook who are watching live on Facebook mcgalley,
she had a question about Edison Insurance Ross. She said
(30:20):
that she heard on one of our recent shows that
when you renew with the same company sometimes you get
a slight decrease in the prices. I don't remember us
saying that, but I remember she saying that.
Speaker 4 (30:35):
I think. I think recently I've said I've seen renewals
come down with carriers. Yeah, the renewal rate was actually
a little bit less than the previous rate, but it's
not a standard for sure.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
Because she was wondering, she's been with the same company
now for about three years since she's wondered if she
can should get a second opinion.
Speaker 4 (30:59):
And any time you want, why not?
Speaker 2 (31:01):
YEP? I agree. So mcgally, if what you can do
is off air, you could either do and this is
for everybody. You can contact us on our eight eight
eight number eight eight eight nine seven three seven eight
two eight. When you call that, it goes to a
live answering service and they'll actually take your real information
and then I get it right away and call you back.
(31:22):
You can go to our website floridatalkrealestate dot com. Just
click on the contact us button and then it'll send
us an email. And is there any other way? I
really suck at being Johnny? Is there any other way
to contact us? I feel like there's another way and
I'm not to contact us. No, Yeah, that's all right.
It's the eight number, Yeah, the eighty eight, or just
(31:43):
go to Florida Talk dot com contact Yeah.
Speaker 5 (31:47):
Hot Ross bright Way Juno.
Speaker 2 (31:49):
Yeah. Right.
Speaker 5 (31:51):
You can look at Mike Row with the mortgage firm.
Speaker 2 (31:54):
Yeah, Mike Crow from the mortgage.
Speaker 5 (31:55):
The easiest way is that eight eight eight number. You
call in and then you get not only do you
get to talk to the professional you want, you also
can build a relationship with Jim.
Speaker 2 (32:05):
Yeah. That gets you into the database. And when you're
in our database, you get a weekly email from us
telling you kind of what's going on in the market. Soon,
we're going to have like little YouTube videos connected to
those emails, which are going to be very newsy fact
based things that are happening in the market right now,
very short, one minute long videos just to kind of
(32:28):
keep a prize of what's going on in the market. Mcgaly.
So all you have to do is reach out to us.
She's saying, I'm sorry, I misunderstood. Don't worry about misunderstanding.
We don't know half the stuff we're talking about anyway,
I'm joking. So we'd love to get a second quote
just to see what would happen. And no promises either way.
Ross isn't going to high pressure you.
Speaker 4 (32:49):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (32:49):
Ross has just mentioned a couple of times over the
past what month and a half that you know, prices
have come down slightly, you know, just a little bit
to some of that reversing. You know, the law was
that they kind of adjusted for a fraud that was
going on in Florida is starting to work its way
into the system and prices are not only not going up,
(33:09):
but maybe slightly coming down.
Speaker 4 (33:12):
Yeah, a little bit. You know, I've seen a few
come down, I would say, holding steady and not experiencing
the same increases that we had been you know.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
So, yeah, I was at a business networking group and
the insurance person there mentioned that they're starting to see
some people getting slight decreases or just holding tight, which
is much better than getting those sixteen percent twenty percent.
Speaker 4 (33:37):
Yeah. Like one of my press that we were getting
his renewal went down seven dollars, right, okay, yeah, it
went down, but.
Speaker 2 (33:44):
For the year.
Speaker 4 (33:45):
Yeah, okay, right, take it.
Speaker 2 (33:47):
Yeah, hey, yeah, you got to take it. It's better
than seeing a sixteen percent jump every year.
Speaker 4 (33:52):
Yeah, which I won't call that a rate decrease.
Speaker 2 (33:54):
Yes, absolutely anything. You know, it's almost like when you're
playing blackjack at the casino if it's a push, yeah,
push to win, pushes to win. Right, It's better than
you getting the money than they getting the money. That's
the way it is. Hey, Speaking of insurance, Ross, I
wanted to talk to you a little bit about citizens'
insurance because a lot of times when I'm talking to
(34:17):
people and they end up getting citizen insurance or they
already have it, they say it like this, yeah, I
got citizens insurance. You know, I don't know what's going
to happen if, you know, if I need to file
acclaim or something, and they talk very down about it,
and you know, citizen insurance has been described in the
newspapers and the media as the insurance company of last
(34:40):
resort in Florida. Right, So that doesn't sound very good.
Insurance the last resort, right, But is that realistic? Is
that a realistic attitude to have about Citizens' Insurance?
Speaker 4 (34:53):
Not at all. I mean, yeah, it does get painted
as an inferior insurance company, you know, insurer of last resort.
But I mean it was originally designed to be the
insurer of last resort, meaning if you couldn't get coverage elsewhere,
this is you know, here's a backstop for you to
be able to get coverage. But Citizens is a regular
insurance company. They're almost the most pure insurance company because
(35:16):
they're not for profit, so that's as pure as you
can get. They buy reinsurance just like every other insurance company,
so they have all the funds for it. You know,
people say they don't pay claims. That's not the case
in my experience. I had one of my clients who
(35:37):
he was away on vacation, came home and he had
water in his garage and all through his house, and
he called me, and you know, I explained to him
how to go through the process in order to get
to it. They had to to get to the leak,
they had to remove like big granite countertops, and I
think at the end of the day his claim was
paid eighty thousand dollars checked by check by check, completely fine.
(36:01):
You thought it was great. So that's a good positive experience.
I had another lady who I was working with her
yesterday to you know, finalize one of her policies. Turns
out she had a claim on another house and that
was through Citizens, and she just voluntarily I said, hey,
it looks like you have you had a claim back
in twenty twenty two, and she just volunteered. Yeah, they
(36:24):
had that and it was with Citizens, and you know,
they came out and they paid me right away and
gave me all the money I needed. And it's like,
you know what, that's refreshing to hear a positive review
because so many times I talked to people and I say, well,
you know, I sent them a quote and it's Citizens,
and they they're upset. And at the end of the day,
they're just the same insurance company. And really the only
(36:46):
thing that you can't do with Citizens, it's really customized
the policy and had kind of these extra endorsements that
a lot of people don't know about and don't really
care about to begin with. But that's really the only
downfall that I really see with Citizens.
Speaker 2 (37:01):
So you know, that's that's what I've seen with customers
when they've had a foul claim through Citizens, that it's
just like every other insurance company. I didn't really think
about the pureness before, you know the fact that it's
not for profit, so you know, you can't say that
about the other companies, right, So that's really good. So
(37:22):
the bottom line is, UH, with this, don't listen to
the gossip of what your neighbors are saying about Citizens
or what they think about You need to talk to
a pro like Gross to find out what your best
options are. And Citizens sometimes is your best option, and
sometimes you have other options. But don't get prejudiced by
gossip and then make a poor decision for yourself.
Speaker 4 (37:44):
Yeah, I'm not trying to sell Citizens, and hey, everybody
should have Citizens. If you if there's another option, or
you know, a couple of dollars more and you want
to go that route, go that route. But I wouldn't
be I wouldn't be apprehensive about, you know, being with Citizens.
Speaker 2 (38:00):
So let's talk about this for a second, because we
had a good conversation last night, I thought, because we
kind of have a differing view on this, but you're
the professional in the industry that's been doing a long time,
and I'm just an outsider looking from the outside. Inn
But I'm very concerned about the fact that we had
Helene and Milton this year, which were very very strong hurricanes,
(38:21):
which had relatively strong damage. I know, Helene in Florida,
it could have been much worse because where it went
it was a lot of not very well developed area.
If it was a little farther south it would or
a little farther north it could have been much worse.
But it was still a bad storm. And then we
had did I say Milton, I met Helene, and then Helen. Oh,
(38:43):
I did say Helene, okay, and then Milton, you know,
just two weeks later, came back generally the same area
in a way where it started and then created more damage.
And thank god that hurricane wasn't as bad as they
thought it was going to be twelve hours before it landed,
because they thought it could be a four or five,
like actually well four actually hitting the land at as
(39:05):
a four at one point and then it was barely
a three I think when it hit.
Speaker 5 (39:10):
Yeah, and then the storm surge kind of did not
do what it could have done, yes, because it was
sucking water out instead of pushing it in.
Speaker 2 (39:17):
Yeah, I forget depending on where it was. Yeah, I
forget what that terminology was about the water going out,
and I forget what that terminology is.
Speaker 5 (39:25):
But it's the same when it hits and where which
part of the storm are you at, right. If you're
on the top edge, it's pushing that, if you're on
the bottom, it's pulling.
Speaker 2 (39:32):
Yeah, like that. But I felt like if we got
through this year unscathed, that it was really going to
help ease the insurance problems we had because it was
going to give them all a breather. But you know,
now that we had these two big storms, I feel
like that there's no relief for the insurance companies because
they still got to pay for this stuff that's insured
(39:55):
and ross. You had a different opinion on that, and
I think it's a very valid opinion. So I wanted,
you know, to get that out there, and your answer was,
I don't. I wouldn't worry about it because they've already
uh funded for these kind of things there. That's what
their job is.
Speaker 4 (40:12):
Yeah, I mean I don't think you're going to see
what we saw the last four years, right, because that
that had nothing to do with hurricanes. You know, for
hurricanes and catastrophes. The insurance companies underwright for that, they
buy reinsurance for that, so they every year they're planning
(40:32):
on having a hurricane event. We're in Florida, right, and
I think we just kind of got complacent. We've had
a hurricane kind of every year, one or two every
year for the last what five six years, I think, right,
we've had had one maybe, right.
Speaker 5 (40:50):
I know last year the West coast got hit. I'm
thinking about us on the East coast, Florida in general. Yeah,
certainly Florida in general. Yeah, like one or two.
Speaker 2 (40:59):
Yeah, because twenty seventeen was z in. I mean, uh irma, right,
we had Irma in twenty seventeen. I don't know about
twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen.
Speaker 4 (41:08):
We have like a Michael kind of go up and
hit the hands.
Speaker 2 (41:11):
Oh yeah, there was a Michael.
Speaker 4 (41:13):
But you know what if they're underwriting for this, you know,
they're underwriting for storms, they're buying what.
Speaker 2 (41:18):
They do for a living exactly.
Speaker 4 (41:21):
So I think we kind of all got complacent, or
at least we only remember between two thousand and six
and twenty seventeen where we or two thousand and seven
through twenty seventeen where we had no storms. Right, you know,
we got very lucky where there were no hurricanes, and
so everybody kind of just remembers that. Now when we
get one, you know, it's you know, oh my gosh,
(41:43):
hurricanes coming. But prior to that, prior to two thousand
and seven, we've in my recollection, we've always kind of
had one or two that has come in hit Florida,
you know, you know, even growing up and you go, oh,
four h five, you know all those.
Speaker 2 (42:02):
Now that I'm really like listening to what you're saying
right now, I had like a little epiphany here. And
you know what's interesting to me is if it comes
out the way that you're saying, which kind of makes
sense to me. This is what they do for living.
They're prepared for storms. They crunch the actuarial figures to
figure out what they need for that. They have reinsurance
(42:24):
backing them up, overseeing them to make sure that their
numbers are in line with the reinsurance, which tells us
that what dawned on me is that if we really
don't see any kind of dramatic spike hikes because of
these hurricanes, it just shows you how much fraud we
had because we're two and a half times the national
(42:47):
average for insurance. And so if it's not related to
the amount of damage of the storms we're getting and
it's just the fraud, that means our fraud is like
raising our rates by two and a half times compared
to the national average, regardless of the storms. We have
to me that, I mean, I know we've talked about
it a lot about the fraud, but that's just another
(43:09):
way to look at it.
Speaker 4 (43:10):
Yeah, I mean, so if the insurance companies they can
underwrite and plan and act where they what is the
chance of hurricane hitting, what is the chance of the
damage it's going to cause, they can they can underwrite
that risk. What they can't underwrite for is how much
attorneys fees are we going to have to pay out
this year? So they can't you know, there's no way
(43:32):
to predict that. So that's why we saw those rate increases.
That's why we saw those insurance companies go out of business.
It wasn't because of storm damage. It was because of
not being able to underwrite for litigation costs.
Speaker 2 (43:45):
One thing I want to tell people listening to this
part of the show for insurance purposes. Every year you
should double check your insurance policy. Just don't let it
renew with the carrier. The you have get get get
a second quote at least just to find out where
you stand. You might get some pleasant surprises. You might
(44:05):
be very satisfied with what you got right and just
say great, I'm going to stay where I'm at. But
you should check because there are people out there that
can get savings if they're looking for it. Not everybody,
but it doesn't take anything to check. All you got
to do is reach out to us. Basically, give us
your address. We send it to Ross. Ross doesn't even
really you normally have to even call you. He will
(44:27):
if he has questions, but he'll give you a quote
as to what he thinks that he can get. Yeah,
and Ross also made property.
Speaker 5 (44:35):
He could do like apples to apples cover and say, hey, listen,
you're good with what you got, You're not going to
get a better rate. But you could also say rock
but I like I got to get a better rate,
Like I just can't afford my mortgage payment whatever. It's
gone up because of this, So can we do anything?
And Ross, of course will be able to at least
see if there is something you can do, even if
you're adjusting your your coverages.
Speaker 4 (44:54):
Yeah, and if apples to apples my quote is higher,
I will tell you to do the things that I
would do to reduce the premium on my quote, to
do it on yours because it'll be cheaper. It'll be cheaper. Yep.
Speaker 2 (45:06):
That's what we're all about, is just trying to get
you the right answers to get you through the day.
And if we can help you, great, And if there's
another way you can get help that's better, we're going
to tell you that too, because that's the way we're
built here. We're Florida Talk real Estate. We're here to
help you with all your needs. The other thing I
wanted to bring out about was I'm sorry, hold on here.
(45:31):
I wanted to talk just really quickly about you know,
we're going to get into a little bit later about
the mortgage interest rates and how we didn't really get
that big expected decrease right after the FED rate cut,
and we're going to talk to Mike about why that
necessarily didn't happen. But you know, one of the things
(45:53):
I want to impress upon people though right now, it's
still a really great time to be a buyer. Yeah,
you didn't get that big drop and interest rates right
after the FED cut, but you've had a series of
drops throughout early summer all the way till now, and
we're still low compared to even November. We're way low.
(46:16):
We're more than a point low, almost one point three
to five below where we were in November as far
as interest rates. So waiting for interest rates to go
down is kind of an exercise and futility to kind
of gauge what's happening in the market. And so there's
you know, there's many reasons why it's a great time
to be buyer, but I wanted to go over three
(46:37):
reasons why it's a great time to be a buyer
right now, and number one reason to be I'm sorry.
Number one reason for it's a great time to be
a buyer is there are plenty of houses to choose from.
Inventory is up like crazy. There's tons of houses out
there for the buyer. That is choosy. They can pick
fixer uppers, they can pick one pick ones that are
(46:59):
kind of fixed up. They can pick what I call
the super mac Doddy homes. So they are all out
there available for you. And the inventory has increased about
thirty percent in South Florida since a year ago, so
there's plenty of houses to choose from, not a lack
of inventory. Number two reasons why it's a great time
to be a buyer less competition. We did not get
(47:22):
that buyer surge that everybody was expecting after the FED
rate cut because the rates didn't go down. The mortgage
rates did not go down, so there's less competition out there.
It's very rare for you to be in a multiple
bid situation right now. It does happen, but it's very rare.
So most of the time you're competing mono amano with
the seller and trying to decide what is the price
(47:43):
that you'll accept and that they'll take to make the
deal work. So less competition is always better for the buyer.
Reason number three is a great time to be a
buyer right now. The sellers are way more reasonable in
dealing with offers that at one point they would just
push away and be insulted by I just had a
(48:05):
customer recently that got a twenty percent discount off the
original list price to buy the unit. Another one of
our guys he got eight percent off of the list
price when buying the property. A lot of these sellers.
I have sellers right now that would offer two percent
(48:26):
of the total loan value to give back to the
buyer at closing so that they could help pay down
the mortgage rate, the permanent mortgage rate for their thirty
year loan. And I have sellers right now that are
offering that to qualified buyers. So these are three great
reasons why being a buyer right now is much better
(48:47):
than it's been in a very long time. So don't
sit around and cry in your beer because the interest
rates didn't go down as low as you think. That
isn't the only thing to consider when you're going out
home buying. Mike, do you have any other advice about this?
I mean, I like all of those points, Jim.
Speaker 5 (49:06):
I think it's it's it's easy to get caught up
in the oh, it's not a great market, right, It's
not a great market, And so pointing out to people
why there are some reasons why it could be great
for you is really important. So the fact that inventory
is up is like you get like a little bit
of a waterfall for a buyer. So not only can
you shop around and probably find you know, a more
(49:27):
variety of home that might suit your your suit, your needs,
but you can also negotiate a little bit harder, right,
because you might be that only offer right. And that's
all due to fact that there's more inventory out there.
Why is there more inventory?
Speaker 2 (49:41):
Who knows? Right?
Speaker 5 (49:43):
Sentiment in the market, interest rates being high, you know,
insurance being high, But that's okay because you are targeting
a number, right, You're targeting a home, and you're targeting
you know, location, all that stuff. But you're also targeting
a number. And so if you can find it, and
you can and get the seller to give a little
bit like like the ways that you're talking about, right,
(50:04):
maybe on the price, maybe it's the seller credit, right,
you can use that to reduce your interest rate. You
can use that to cover your closing costs, so you
have more for fixing up things if it's a fixer upper, right,
moving expenses.
Speaker 2 (50:17):
So it just it just like.
Speaker 5 (50:21):
For me, it reinforces the fact that you if you're
a buyer for whatever reason, like this isn't a strategic move,
it's not a you know, of course it's a long
term investment. But it's not like I'm buying now because
I got to sell it in six months, I got
to sell it in a year. It's I'm buying now
because it's right for me and my family at this time.
Can we do it right? So if that's you, you
(50:42):
have to kind of get into the game. You got
to get in there, and you got to be able
to go out and find those circumstances where it works.
And I would say that there's more opportunity for that
now than there has been in the past. You know, year,
two years year.
Speaker 2 (51:00):
Inventory has been so low that the sellers had it
over the buyers for so long. So yes, you are
going to pay a little higher interest rate historically, but
historically not really. But over the last couple of years
you're paying a higher interest rate. Over the last fifteen years,
you're paying about what the average interest rate was. We'll
get into that later. But the other thing is is that, yes,
(51:23):
the other bad thing is insurance, right, the insurance is
really a factor and affordability for mortgages right now. But
you because of the lack of demand out there, sellers
are willing to give more incentives. The motivated sellers are
willing to give incentives to the buyer in order to
(51:44):
get the deal done. And you just have to have
to have a sharp agent to help negotiate for you,
but also have the attitude that you're open minded enough
to go out and look, nobody's going to be twisting
your armor, at least not us to go out and
be forced to buy a house. If you get locked.
Speaker 5 (52:02):
Up, you have to write a contract on this show.
Speaker 2 (52:04):
Now, that's not going to happen. But the last two
people I took out. Both of them. I went out
on a Saturday right after the show. Both people on
most two different saturdays. I showed seven properties both times.
Both times they really liked one of the properties. They
turned in an offer, we negotiated. They got way less
(52:25):
than the list price because both houses were on the
market more than one hundred days yep. And we got
good deals and they're both closing. So the thing is
is that the ability to do it is there, and
you don't have to buy something. If they didn't like
any of the seven houses, they saw that day. No
big deal, We'll just find another seven to go look
(52:46):
at and next time we go out.
Speaker 5 (52:49):
And you can also like even before you get to
the hey, we're driving around looking at home stage.
Speaker 2 (52:54):
We have like.
Speaker 5 (52:57):
Window shopping on steroids type of thing. Some people window shopping,
which very easy to do. You can get the apps
on your phone. You can you can be online. You
can look at what's out there, like you get all
that window shopping on steroids is you've talked to gym,
you've set up criteria for what you're looking for. This
could be you know, zip codes, price point, bedrooms, bathrooms,
like all of the boxes you have to check. You
(53:19):
also have been preapproofd for a mortgage and you have
my app which allows you to crunch numbers on any
home that you're looking at. Right, you can plug in
the price, plug in the taxes, like you're gonna get
a very accurate, accurate estimate not only on what the
payment's going to be, but what the cash requirements are
going to be. And you can play around with it
and say, okay, well you know what they want to
(53:40):
sell it for three seventy what if I if we
come into three p fifty right, how's that affecting things?
And you can do this and you could do that
all from your from your office chair, from your couch,
from your bedroom, like whatever it is. And so you
put yourself in a position where you can take advantage
of those tools. And then when you do make that
call to gym, say Jim, look, we've got seven houses.
(54:03):
All of these are potential. They could all work if
we get the right configuration. Let's go look at them right,
And then then then it's like and then if those
seven don't work, fine, reset, do it again, do it
another week down the line, whatever it.
Speaker 2 (54:15):
Is, until you find the one that you love. Yes,
And then then we find out if the Motiva sellers
motivated enough to work with you. Sometimes the seller is
not motivated. You'll turn in an offer that's reasonable, yes,
compared to what everybody else in the neighborhood. But they
still are thinking that it's still twenty nineteen and they're
gonna or twenty twenty, and they're gonna get this crazy
(54:37):
bidding war that isn't going to happen. And a lot
of times I just follow those houses and then every
couple of weeks, Hey, our offer still stands until it
doesn't anymore, and then we start offering less.
Speaker 5 (54:48):
To me, like that type of strategy for saving money
is much much better than the I'm gonna wait for
interest razor drop. It's hey, I found the house. You
know what, they're asking a little too much. Why don't
you calm up, Jim, see if they'll take a number
that works for us, or hey, to see if they'll
give us a credit that we need. And they're like, no, no, no,
(55:08):
it's too we only been on the market eight days. Whatever,
it's too it's too new. We only been on the
market one day. Right, we're doing it open houses. Okay,
so it's not gonna work right now, but guess what,
we can watch it and then wait for two weeks,
three weeks, four weeks.
Speaker 2 (55:21):
In the meantime, you're looking at other stuff.
Speaker 5 (55:23):
But if that one stays on there, then that's where
you can really save money, right because then you know,
wait a second, this is what they wanted. They're coming down.
Let's get let's make this deal happen.
Speaker 2 (55:33):
Absolutely. On the flipside, we're going to take a break
right now. On the flip side, we're gonna do a
little educational bit on Win insurance or hurricane insurance versus
flood insurance and understanding the difference and everything through the
eyes of a great insurance broker, Ross Camerinusrom probably Win
Insurance Juneral Beach. And we're also going to talk about
(55:55):
this community out in that Fort Myers area roughly, I
don't know the exact city, you have to look it up.
Where they've been now through three pretty powerful hurricanes and
nobody even moved from their house or lost electricity and
had no damage in the whole community because this developer
swears that he built this community to withstand her hurricane
(56:18):
force winds up to one hundred and fifty miles an
hour period. Just stay there, don't worry about it, just
hang out. So we're going to take a look at
that community. I thought that was kind of interesting about it.
So on the flip side, we're going to talk about
Batcock branches I think it's called, and also Win insurance
versus flood insurance. Things you got to know.
Speaker 1 (56:53):
This is Florida Talk Real Estate with Jim Depola and
Johnny c. Got a question for the show call us
Live and eighty seven seven ninety seven sixty nine sixty nine, Hey.
Speaker 2 (57:05):
This is Jim Depolo with the Florida Talk Real Estate Show,
your number one information provider about all things real estate
in South Florida. And we've been on now since twenty twelve,
so we've been on twelve years, going on thirteen years now,
giving you the most up to date information about what's
going on in the real estate market from the perspective
(57:26):
of regular people that are looking to buy or sell
or maybe get a second home. We're not a podcast
for realtors learning how to be a better realtor, although
that some people do get tips listen to this. We
know a lot of realtors listen to us. And we're
not really here full time to talk about full time investing,
(57:46):
although we do that off air with a lot of
our customers. We're here just to give you an idea
of what's going on in the real estate market. Is
a buyer's market, seller's market, and how to navigate this
tricky South Florida markets we've been doing for twelve years.
And to help me with all that, we've got Mike
Rau from the mortgage Firm, a direct lender that covers
(58:07):
multiple states. That's right, Good morning, hey, Mike, and we
of course, we got Ross Kamarinus from bright Wing Insurance
Juno Beach office, the only office that we even talk about.
I don't even think there are any other offices then
the Juno Beach office, right, Ross, Well, you can find
them online, but I think it's the international headquarters are
in Juno Beach. Yeah, that's right, the International International International. Yes.
(58:29):
So if you have any questions off here, all you
got to do is reach out to us on our
Florida Talk real Estate page website floridatalkrealestate dot com. And
I want to thank everybody watching the show live on
Facebook and YouTube. I want to let you know that
starting next week, as long as that this show is
(58:50):
recorded fully this week, we are going to start putting
out last week's podcast as a podcast on YouTube as
a full show. And the reason why we're doing that
we know about the audio problems that we've been having
where I call us the Godzilla Japanese TV movie or
Japanese movies where the words don't match the people's lips,
(59:15):
that it's not sync right. We know that happens, and
there's not really a way to fix it. So what
I've decided to do is take the show and create
it into a podcast, and we're going to run that
at starting at eleven o'clock next Saturday, So you're gonna
have this week's show as a full podcast starting at
eleven o'clock when we go off air live on YouTube,
and we're going to do that every week. So if
(59:38):
you're tired of watching us with the Japanese Japanese syncing
on our audio versus video, you could watch the full
show done correctly the following Saturday at eleven o'clock. We're
going to try that. That's really not for the big
fans that are watching live all the time. We really
appreciate you watching live. We love you asking questions and
(01:00:00):
reaching out to us, and we love those fans. But
we're trying to build a podcast audience for the show
that's basically based on YouTube, and that's what that's for.
But it's going to start next Saturday. So if you
subscribe to our YouTube channel, you're going to see a
little premiere announcement that every Saturday at eleven o'clock we
have a new show, so that you understand what's going on. Okay,
(01:00:23):
one of the things I wanted to talk about, and
of course we got Jimithy, the producer. I'm sorry, Timathy,
I'm so sorry about that. You know, if he doesn't
like us, See, all he has to do is hit
a button and we're gone. Right, we're new, So you
got to be nice to Jimothy, whether you like it
or not. And I always like it though. It's awesome.
Speaker 6 (01:00:39):
Sorry, buddy, Yeah, he's holding the button over there.
Speaker 2 (01:00:42):
He's holding the button at the same time as he's
saying it always a silk. I wanted to talk about
this community, this community on the west coast of Florida,
where this developer built a very small community, but he
says that he built it to make it hurricane proof
(01:01:02):
as best he could, where the houses are held to
a standard of one hundred and fifty mile an hour
wins and it can even it even handles storm surge
the way they built these properties, because they're lifted up
in the air. And now they've gone through three major hurricanes.
(01:01:24):
They've been through Ian in twenty twenty two, they've been
through Helene this year, and then two weeks later Milton,
and I know that for Milton and Helen, apparently nobody
in the community left, even though everybody else was being
evacuated from that area. Nobody left their homes, never locked electricity,
(01:01:45):
didn't even lose a tile on any of the roofs.
They had basically no damage in this community. Pretty amazing.
And Ross and I were talking about this off are.
We're like, why don't they just make that the standard
to build everything down here, you know? And it's really
interesting how they build these So they're doing cinder block
for the first floor, and they're still doing wood on
(01:02:07):
the second floor, which I thought was kind of unusual
that they would choose that material. But it's the way
that they're strapping the timbers on the second floor, and
they're actually uses steel trusses on top of it. And
that's one of the reasons why these things are holding
up so well. And the other thing is is the
(01:02:29):
garage is the garage is really the first story of
the home, and the home is really on the second
story the living space, so that garage also helps with
storm surge. I just think that's really really interesting out there.
I'm trying to look at the name of the community,
Bapcock Cranches. Is it called Babcock Branches? Okay? So, and
(01:02:53):
they also set up their houses with solar panels too,
so that even if they did lose quote electric is
that the they're really not going to lose lectures as
long as the solar panels hold. So I just think
that's pretty interesting. I'd like to see new construction in Florida.
Maybe it's happening, I'm not aware of it. Where we
can take the highest standards for this stuff and just
(01:03:15):
start incorporating in the homes, uh, so that as these
storms continue to occur, we have less and less damage
from them. I think would be a really good thing.
Speaker 5 (01:03:26):
I'm sure there's a cost, you know, perspective on it.
Speaker 2 (01:03:30):
Yeah, I think these homes start at like one point
two million, if I'm not mistaken, So you have to
you know, these are million dollars. Yeah, one point two million.
Yet no Lira, Oh, I was gonna say whatever. I
don't know why I popped in. I was gonna say
whatever Laca would say from a taxi. I don't know
why that popped in my head. The name from he
(01:03:50):
had some kind of name for his money over there.
But yeah, so there there are a million bucks or
more for these Oh no, I'm sorry. Yeah, one point
four one point nine million is what these homes are
selling for the other homes in the area, Mike, they're
only selling for about six hundred thousands, so you're you're
paying for this protection.
Speaker 4 (01:04:10):
Yeah. And also, I mean that's brand new construction. Those
homes are big, you know, they're not you know, economy homes.
Speaker 2 (01:04:17):
That's true, that's exactly.
Speaker 4 (01:04:19):
You know, I'm sure that house here would probably be
two and a half three you know, yeah, if it
was down here in this area. Yeah, but you're paying
for you know, hey, man, they got those solar farms
that are there. You don't lose electricity, so that's you know,
that's kind of included in that price, you know.
Speaker 2 (01:04:34):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (01:04:34):
Yeah, the peace of mind of having all that those
amenities to make sure you get through the storms.
Speaker 2 (01:04:39):
So it is an all doom and gloom. And the
other thing I thought was really interesting. I didn't really
know where this community was based, and basically it's surrounded
by water. It's they're on a little finger canal in
the inner coastal one side of it, but the other
side is I don't know a football field of from
(01:05:00):
another canal. But these units, these units are right near
the bay and a bridge, and it's amazing that they've
held up so well compared to all the other houses
in the area after all those storms. So maybe that'll
be the future of building here. Now, Ross I wanted
(01:05:21):
to talk to you because, you know, with Helene. When
Helene first happened, we came out and said on the
show that there was only like three to five billion
dollars in damage for Florida estimated, but ian was twenty
one billion. But then like a week later they said
(01:05:41):
there was one hundred and sixty billion dollars if you
added the flooding, because the three to five billion was
just hurricane damage, but one hundred and sixty billion when
you added flooding in, which tells you a lot of
the damage was flooding from Helene. And a lot of people,
I think don't understand what the differences between wood wind insurance.
(01:06:02):
Do you call it hurricane insurance or wind insurance? It's
called homeowners insurance? Okay, So the difference between homeowner's insurance
and flood insurance. Could you kind of tell us the
differences between those two insurance.
Speaker 4 (01:06:14):
Yeah, So the difference between whether the the coverage will
apply to your homeowner's insurance or flood insurance is how
did that water enter the home. Okay, if during a hurricane,
roof gets ripped off and it rains inside your house,
and now your house is basically a pool with three
feet of water inside of it, that's going to be
(01:06:37):
your homeowner's insurance. Now, if the water enters your home
at the ground level, meaning that it's raining real hard
or a storm surge and the water is pushed into
your home at the ground level, that's going to be
flood insurance, no matter what caused it. If the hurricane
pushed the water from the bay into your house, and
(01:06:59):
the hurricane did that, that's going to be flood insurance.
Now again, if the hurricane ripped off your house and
it rained inside your house, that's homeowners insurance.
Speaker 2 (01:07:09):
That makes sense, And that's I think is the it
does make sense. Thank you about that, And could you
tell me you gave me a couple examples before people
that had flood insurance that didn't and how can affect
their lives. Remember we were talking.
Speaker 4 (01:07:24):
About that so recently during and it was not as
a result of the hurricane, but I guess up in
Jacksonville they had had a lot of rain, and I
guess August and September, I guess we all had a
lot of rain here too, and I got an email saying, hey,
we had some water intrusion and the water you know
(01:07:46):
the damage it caused. And I kind of responded got
back and said, what, hey, what do you mean by
water intrusion? And they told me that the way that
the backyard is angled when it was raining, there was
a that diverted the water and it diverted the water
inside the house. And you know, unfortunately that is flood
(01:08:08):
insurance because that water entered the house at the ground level,
so there would be no coverage that applied. Unfortunately. However,
that happened to one of my clients probably eight years ago.
He called me and said, hey, my neighbor did something
to his fence and the way that he did it.
The next time we had this big rain, it diverted
(01:08:28):
the water into my house. And I remember when he
was telling me that as I'm pulling up his policy
information in our client management system, please, and we had
a flood insurance policy for him, and that's the policy
that responded and paid all the damages. It would not
have been covered under his homeowner's insurance. So it's important
to understand that where that water originates from is what
(01:08:52):
is covered. Also, I got at when when you get
a new policy, you get a declarations page that shows
all your coverages, and tipic on one of the last pages,
in big letters, it says this does not include flood
insurance or this does not cover floods. And I get
a lot of people that call me and say, hey,
so I my how water heater explodes. I don't have
any coverage, And I kind of go through that same explanation. Okay, hey,
(01:09:15):
where does the water come from. If the water originates
from above that or inside your home at like a
pipe or hot water heater exploding, toilet overflow, that's going
to be covered under your homeowner's insurance. But if the
water enters your home from the outside of the ground level,
that's going to be flood.
Speaker 2 (01:09:33):
That's where I think people get very confused. Is the
point that you made a little bit ago where you said,
even though the hurricane might have created the storm searge
and that water was pushed in because of the hurricane,
if there wasn't a hurricane, we wouldn't have the storm search.
It's still considered flood damage, even though the hurricane is
the one that pushed the water there. Yes, so if
(01:09:54):
you don't have flood insurance, your hurricane policy is not
going to cover that. That's where I think people get
really used correct. It's like, well, it's part of the hurricane, right,
and it's like, yeah, the hurricane, but it's water that
came in from the ground up, so that's considered flood anyway.
And that's the way it works. So it's really important
that people understand that because there's a lot of people
(01:10:14):
that are going to be really learning that hard lesson
now or learning that lesson now where they're going to
be like the poor guy that you just mentioned that
didn't have the flood coverage and he had to pull
the money out of his pocket for that. The one
thing I wanted to ask you also about this is
if you not require to get flood insurance, if you're
(01:10:34):
not required to get it like mandatory, is it still
pretty expensive inexpensive to get a flood policy.
Speaker 4 (01:10:43):
Yeah. Yeah, you know you're probably like five years ago.
It used to be standard rates. You know, if you
wanted this amount of coverage, this is how much it cost,
and there was about five or six different options. Now
they underwrite it more like a homeowner's insurance based on
location and things like that. But I'm still seeing anywhere,
you know, on average, probably five to seven hundred dollars
(01:11:05):
per year for flood insurance if you're not in a
high risk now.
Speaker 2 (01:11:09):
So like two bucks a day basically, Yeah, yep, and yeah,
so that that's not a bad thing. I remember when
I lived over in Wellington, we had a canal in
our backyard. I didn't really think it would ever overflow
or anything, but I just went ahead and paid for
the flood insurance anyway, just in case, because if it
happens and you don't have it, you wish you did.
(01:11:31):
And back then it was even less expensive than it
is now, because that was five or six years ago.
Speaker 4 (01:11:35):
Yeah, I think those preferred rates were like four dollars.
Speaker 2 (01:11:40):
Yeah, yeah, that's what I remember, almost like a dollar
a day roughly. And Mike, do you have flood insurance
or anything on your house because you're out in the
acre jura so you're not worried about it?
Speaker 5 (01:11:50):
Yeah, well, I mean I'm slightly worried about it, but
you know, our homes are our homes are out there,
they're built elevated a little bit. So I'm at least
you know, I don't know eight fet just above like
where my.
Speaker 2 (01:12:03):
Yeah, actually thinking about it, when you come to your
house and it rains or your whole driveway is you know,
a puddle is a gigantic puddle.
Speaker 5 (01:12:11):
Well, the driveway was the owner prior, there's somebody before
I owned it put that driveway in. It's more like
a landing pad for the cars. And they put it
they put it in below everything else, like lower. So
I don't know who poured that concrete or like who
did that job, but it's like if you're pouring, you're
making a concrete pad, you should elevate it, right. It
should be above the rest of the yard, not below
(01:12:33):
it type of thing. So yeah, that does get flooded.
But and my yard gets puddles in it, especially during
the summer when we have like heavy rains every day.
But my house is up high from that, you know,
probably six seven eight feet above the yard in general.
Speaker 2 (01:12:45):
So hey, I want to backtrack for a second because
I didn't see this until just a second ago. Jack,
who's a fan watching on YouTube and thank you so much,
he said that we're not talking about Babcock Ranch, which
is very for inland It's funny. He just said, that's
like fifty miles inland, which is what I thought. It's
actually Cortez is the name of the community, Cortez, So
(01:13:07):
I apologize for that. The price ranges are you know
right where Jack was saying. He says one point eight
million for the home. I said one point four to
one point nine. But I had the wrong community. It's Cortes.
So I apologizet the hurricane proof on the hurricane proof
community Badcock.
Speaker 4 (01:13:24):
Ranches that hurricane proof.
Speaker 2 (01:13:26):
Yeah, But the one he's right, the one, the one
I read about CNN. It's point home Hunters point Homes
in Cortes, Florida.
Speaker 5 (01:13:35):
That's they're all built up. Are the garages.
Speaker 2 (01:13:37):
Yeah, with the garage and the solar panels and everything.
Now I think bob Cock Ranches also has hurricane proof
homes out there.
Speaker 4 (01:13:46):
That's the one that got like the big attention is.
Speaker 2 (01:13:48):
At one point. Yeah, but Cortes is much closer to
the water, and it's and it's kind of been through
these hurricanes and that's why everybody was talking about it.
And Jack said, last thing Jack said, and Nick is
saying the same thing. Nick also was saying, Hey, you
got He's on Facebook and he's saying, Hey, you got
the community's wrong, So sorry about that, guys, You're right,
(01:14:08):
it's quartet. But Jack also left off saying I'm not
getting flood insurance. I made sure I'm nowhere near the
possibility of getting flood water. But just so you know, Jack,
listen to the story that Ross just said. You could
be in the middle of nowhere and if your neighbor
diverts the water from the property and it rains really
hard and that water ends up coming into your house,
(01:14:30):
that's flood insurance, right Ross, It doesn't matter.
Speaker 4 (01:14:33):
Yeah, and I think I've read somewhere where like forty
percent of the flood the areas or the people that
had flood damage weren't required to have.
Speaker 2 (01:14:43):
It, right exactly, they're not in a high risk flood zone,
but they got damage from it. So that's why it's important.
You know, I'm not telling everybody you get flood insurance,
but it's something that you really should consider because if
you're tied on money, seven hundred dollars a years is
definitely worth it if you do have a problem. And
(01:15:06):
so anyway, I just thought that was really interesting because
I don't own a house right this second mic, Have
you seen your insurance policies go up dramatically over the
last couple of years or no, you.
Speaker 5 (01:15:19):
Have, I say, said the same thing everyone else has,
and I kind of like, basically just make the decision
to lower my coverage as much as possible, just to
keep the premium in line. Just I got high deductibles.
But I'm also like mentally prepared to do work work,
like I could have damage and not even have an
(01:15:39):
insurance clean type of thing.
Speaker 2 (01:15:41):
I totally get it because the wood I used to
have a wood frame home too, so stuff happened, you
could put on a belt and take.
Speaker 5 (01:15:46):
It even if you know, probably if like one of
my big pine trees fell on my roof or something,
I'd have a problem. But most of the stuff I'm comfortable. Well,
you know, whatever take risks you you wait the pros
and the cons.
Speaker 2 (01:16:03):
Yeah, I guess if I want a really good table, right,
if you need to make up the money.
Speaker 5 (01:16:07):
If I wanted really good insurance, it would be like way.
Speaker 2 (01:16:11):
Expensive, way too much. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (01:16:13):
Yeah, it was based on the age of my home.
It's frame, it's in the acreage.
Speaker 4 (01:16:16):
Yeah, I mean when I the homeowner's insurance was at
about thirty five hundred four years ago in my house notes, right, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 5 (01:16:29):
And you're an inside guy, like you get the discount
of drink.
Speaker 2 (01:16:33):
You know what you're doing. You know what you're doing, right.
Speaker 4 (01:16:35):
Yeah, whole time. Yeah, yeah, I wish that'd be nice.
Speaker 2 (01:16:39):
Hey, we're all in it.
Speaker 4 (01:16:41):
We're all getting those huge rate increases.
Speaker 2 (01:16:43):
Let's take the last part of this, uh, this segment
of the show, and let's talk about something that's near
and dear to my heart is why are the interest
rates going up? They haven't stopped. They just keep going
up and up and up. And you know what, some
of the economists are saying that they're going to continue
to go up through the end of the year. So, uh,
(01:17:03):
just to set and I'm gonna ask Mike, why do
you think the interest rates are going up? Because you're
the mortgage guy, so you're responsible for all the interest rates.
All your fault. It's all your fault, like my resonsibility.
Let me just set the scene here about why are
mortgage rates going up? Okay, so before the Fed cut
the rate, we were at six point oh nine percent.
This is all Freddy mac figures, right, and what everybody expected.
(01:17:26):
Once the Fed cut the interest rate for the Fed
Reserve rate, and they cut it a half a percent,
everybody was celebrating because they thought it was going to
be a huge reduction in mortgage rates. But that isn't
what happened. The week after the Fed cut the rate,
we went from six point oh nine to six point
oh eight, which is basically flat. And then after that
(01:17:47):
we went up to six ' three to two, and
then this Freddie Mac report that came out this Thursday,
we're already up to six point four to four and
Freddy Mac is predicting we're gonna be hitting six fives
before we start seeing any kind of a drop. So, Mike,
I got to ask you, why do you think the
(01:18:08):
mortgage rates are going up right now?
Speaker 5 (01:18:11):
So I guess there's probably like three things, Jim that
I could think of, and it kind of goes back to, well,
did they go down at all? And the answer to
that is yes, they did go down leading up to
the FED decision, So mortgage rates were going you know,
the two months leading up to that September I forget
what day was the September meeting.
Speaker 2 (01:18:30):
I think sixteen to three something.
Speaker 5 (01:18:32):
Rates had gone down about half a point in that
two month period, right right, about a half a point.
So we went from like six and a half down,
you know, or six something down to six ish, right,
And that was because the mortgage industry, or the investment world,
the bond industry was was predicting what the FED was
going to do, and so we did see rates drop.
(01:18:53):
We did see the FED rate drop, I mean the
mortgage rate drop, but it was leading up to the decision,
and then once the decision was made, it was like, ok, okay,
we we got it. So it was basically baked in
to the thing. So that's the first thing. There was
a drop leading up to the FED decision. I think
the second thing is and when I'm going to say
half a point, well, the FED dropped at half a point.
That might have been a little bit of a an
(01:19:16):
overshoot by the FED, right, So they came down they're like, hey,
we we we love where inflation's at.
Speaker 2 (01:19:22):
Right now.
Speaker 5 (01:19:24):
It's tard you know, we're predicting inflations doing what we want.
But now we're getting some ripple, you know, some what
am I trying to say, like worry whisper, whisper? Yeah,
about the jobs market. Right, So unemployment, like we is
a job is the unemployment is job market weakening, and
that's going to be a problem. So they did a
half you know, let's just take those two those two
(01:19:46):
points inflation where we're at. But we we we're a
little bit worried about jobs. We need to make a
big splash here. So half a point rate reduction, right,
which kind of lined up with what mores rates are doing.
But then what happened? A jobs report came out, right,
this is the third thing, so then the jobs are
to come out and was stronger then what the whispers were,
(01:20:06):
what the rumors were, what their predictions.
Speaker 2 (01:20:08):
Were, so right, show the job market wasn't getting the
job reports weren't getting weaker, They're actually getting stronger.
Speaker 5 (01:20:17):
Yeah, economy is still cooking. Economy is cooking. What's going
to happen? We just dropped interest rates, Okay, spending's going
to go up, like you're going to see inflation start
to creep back up because of that. Right, So now
all of a sudden, what's the mortg what's the investment
world doing? They're saying, well, wait a second, what's the
FED going to do?
Speaker 4 (01:20:33):
Now?
Speaker 5 (01:20:34):
Those it's fed gonna bump it back up? Did they
move it too much? So there's a little bit of
this like what's going to happen type thing. I mean,
if you're saying mortgage rates are predicting what the Fed's
going to do, I don't think you can use that
as a general, you know, barometer for what you're going
to do. But if anything, if you see mortgage rates
going up, some people might say, well, the Fed's going
to bump the rate back up quarter Now. I don't
(01:20:54):
think anybody is seriously expecting that or predicting that. If anything,
they're predicting still more more through the end of the year.
But you know, so those are the reasons, and I
think the one maybe the over the over the overall
thought process should be that mortgage rates are not tied
to what the FED is doing. Right, we follow the
trend right over the long term. You stack like lifetime
(01:21:18):
FED chart over lifetime mortgage backed security chart, and you're
going to see the movements the same. Not exactly right.
There's gonna be variation, you know, day to day, month
to month, but mortgage rates will move based on the
ten year treasury Like watch that chart, that's the one
you should be looking answered what's happening today, what's happening
tomorrow or yesterday? What happened this week? And the Treasury
(01:21:42):
is you know, it's an investment thing.
Speaker 2 (01:21:45):
And the reason why we talk about this stuff I
you know, some people might think this is kind of
wonky stuff, but it has real effects in real life
for people. Because the interest rates did not drop the
that people expected to, which was we would get more
interest rate drops for the mortgages after the Fed cut
(01:22:07):
the rate. That's what people are expecting. So based on that,
there were a lot of people expecting a surge of
buyers to come into the market. That didn't happen. We
didn't have the search. In fact, we're down this week
seventeen percent year over year for applications for you know,
new purchases, so we're not seeing that buyer search. Now
(01:22:29):
that affects more than just the buyers. We have less
chances for refis because a lot of people were thinking
that even though that we had that half a point
drop before the Fed rate Fed rate cut in interest rates,
people were expecting more after the Fed rate and they
thought that would turn them into potential REFI candidates. But
(01:22:52):
a lot of REFI candidates that were hopeful they were
going to get a refi. The numbers just don't work
yet there's still not enough a drop in the interest rates.
And then the third thing that it affects, so it
affects people looking for a refi, affects the buyers not
having the search, but it also affects sellers because now
we have less people to buy the houses that are
already around the market, and we're already seeing days on
(01:23:14):
market increasing. We're starting to see real price depreciation, meaning
significant price drops happening communities. And until we get those
deeper interest rates cuts, this is kind of where the
market's going to be. We're going to have more of
(01:23:35):
a buyer's market than a seller's market. It's not super
strong either way, but it is definitely leaning in the
direction of a buyer's market than a seller's market. And
we're going to have sellers that are pickier, and we're
going to have less of them coming in saying raising
their hand and saying it's time for me to buy
a house, even though I'm telling everybody it's time for
you to buy a house if you can afford one,
(01:23:56):
because you're going to get a good deal, probably a
better deal than went waiting for the interest rates later.
But this is really interesting stuff because of how much
the media pushed that the FED rec FED rate cut
was definitely going to translate into immediate mortgage rate cuts,
and that didn't happen and everybody was surprised about it.
(01:24:19):
But that isn't to say that we won't get rate
cuts in the future even if the Fed doesn't cut
the rate, because that's the last thing I want to
leave off on. We had from May seven point two
to two percent was our Freddie mac in May, and
we went all the way down to six h nine
without any FED rate cuts right, just organically because the
(01:24:44):
mortgage rates are tied to the ten year bill, which
is looking for long term economic outlook.
Speaker 5 (01:24:50):
So let me let me one last thing too, Jim.
If you're a buyer, and this kind of goes to
what we talked about earlier, If your buyer waiting for
interest rates to go down, guess who else is waiting
for interest rates to go down? Sellers why? Because they
know that buyers are going to be coming out, and
when there's more buyers out, it's more competitive. They're going
to have multiple offers on their home. So it's like,
you know, like it just reinforces the fact that that's
(01:25:15):
not the number one critical factor. Interest rates should not
be the number one designing factor for what you're doing.
Speaker 2 (01:25:20):
Absolutely, we're gonna go ahead and take a break. And
on the flip side, I want to do something fun.
There was a really good article where talk to a
bunch of different kind of industry leaders and now association
a real national association of realtors, economists, and other industry
leaders to predict what's going to happen to interest rates
(01:25:40):
in twenty twenty five. We're going to take a look
at that. On the flip side, This is.
Speaker 1 (01:25:58):
Florida Talk real Estate with Jim Depola and Johnny c.
Got a question for the show. Call us live at
one eight seven seven sixty nine sixty nine.
Speaker 2 (01:26:09):
That's right, this is Florida Talk real Estate. You're number
one news provider all things real estate in South Florida.
And uh, we're going to continue on with our show today.
We're going to start talking about what's going to happen
with mortgage rates once twenty twenty five starts. Because everybody
was a little disappointed that we didn't get a dramatic
(01:26:32):
rate cut for interest rates after the FED cut. But
Mike in the last section just to explain to us
why that happened. And if you want to check it out,
you have to go back to our reruns and check
it out later after the show. Jim, can you fix
your camera real quick? Sorry? Who pointing up at this guy?
Who mean your camera?
Speaker 4 (01:26:50):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (01:26:50):
Oh, I guess that would help. There you go, There
you go, thank you, thank.
Speaker 3 (01:26:54):
You, pretty mug.
Speaker 2 (01:26:55):
Yeah, there you go. Care ladies, face face, Oh I
got the face radio guys, I'm telling you so. I
wanted to go over what I thought. It was kind
of interesting as to oh my gosh, you know what. Hey,
why don't you guys chit chat for a second when
I find something? I'm missing something here, which is really
(01:27:18):
the predictions. Yeah, I gotta get the predictions because they
were up here and now they're gone. So hold on here.
Speaker 4 (01:27:23):
Who's gonna gonna do anything for October Fest? I usually
don't do it this weekend?
Speaker 5 (01:27:29):
Right, what's happening? What's what's where's the uh? Where's the
place to be?
Speaker 2 (01:27:33):
Is the German and American Social Club?
Speaker 5 (01:27:35):
Okay, I think it's I think it's like, yeah, they
do like a big that.
Speaker 4 (01:27:44):
You know, they get Biener schnitzel. You know what.
Speaker 5 (01:27:49):
I got a buddy I think who traditionally would go
up there. I don't know if he's done it in
a few years, but I'm gonna ask him. I have
a you know, one of our volleyball players.
Speaker 4 (01:27:57):
He's actually German from the Mud, their land, the father
the fathers on.
Speaker 6 (01:28:05):
I'm used to call it the motherland when you refer
to another country, but that way.
Speaker 5 (01:28:10):
Yeah, I think it was maybe you know what I
might be into, entering into territory I shouldn't be. You know,
maybe the Fatherland was you know during the forties, thirties
and forties thing.
Speaker 4 (01:28:21):
Yeah, but he's always he goes, he and promotes it
for us and try to encourage everybody to go. It
looks fun. I know they have. I know that some
of my staff has gone in the past and participated
in some of the games and things they do.
Speaker 3 (01:28:37):
Okay, think like you know, throwing logs.
Speaker 4 (01:28:41):
You know, I haven't been, but I'm pretty sure just
revolves around drinking beer.
Speaker 3 (01:28:46):
Drinking beer.
Speaker 5 (01:28:47):
Yeah, how good you are at that? How long can
you hold up the beer mug?
Speaker 3 (01:28:51):
All right, there's in front of him? How many how
many beer monks can you carry one time?
Speaker 2 (01:28:55):
I've seen those those beer.
Speaker 5 (01:28:58):
Maidens of some yeah beer ads, I've seen them carry
a lot, Like, yeah, that's crazy.
Speaker 2 (01:29:07):
So, Mike, have you ever gone there? Have you ever
gone to the Lantana American German.
Speaker 5 (01:29:11):
I feel like I've been there, but not during Octoberfest.
I feel like I've been to a spot where I
got some German fair, like your traditional German fair, but
it wasn't during the actual event.
Speaker 2 (01:29:22):
You should go and check out. I think you and
Tiffany have a really time.
Speaker 5 (01:29:25):
I'm German too, well, at least my name is German, right, Yeah?
Is German derivation from way back actually means to smoke, right, So, like,
there's a beer called Rauch beer, just smoked beer.
Speaker 2 (01:29:37):
Yeah you can. Why do you say Rauch so I don't?
I say raw? Oh yeah, that's row. Do you say Rau? So?
Speaker 5 (01:29:46):
That's that's one of my u You know that my
my fathers decided to call it row instead of.
Speaker 3 (01:29:54):
Americanized.
Speaker 5 (01:29:56):
I don't, Yeah, I don't. I don't have a good
answer for that. I just know that that my last name,
you know, for my grandfather's grandfather. You know that's what
I learned.
Speaker 2 (01:30:06):
Yeah, I I you know, I pronounced it to polo.
But I guess the Italian real way is da paula.
Paula is yeah, no p a oh is supposed to
be pow Paola, yeah pow Yeah. So when I was
I got I got so tired when I had my
(01:30:29):
byline in the newspapers that everybody but but my name
so much. Then I went when I went to the
Palm Beach Post, I took the first A out of
my name, so it was d I p o l
A Polo topolo so people would pronounce my name right.
So I had my name. My byline in there was
to Polo, to Polo Polo. Then I moved over to
(01:30:52):
the Sentinel, and the Sentinel would not let me use
that name they needed. They demanded I use my real name.
I don't know you can use a pseudonym, and no,
they weren't allowed, right, So I had to put my
real name in there. So I put my real name
in and I was there for a couple of months
and one of the editors for the Post called me
(01:31:13):
up to say, hey, do you know that your name
is being spelled in the paper wrong? Every day, and
I'm like, well, not really technically, technically, you guys have
to spelled it correctly. It's kind of funny, Listen could
be worse. Well, your last name could be. I don't
know why I had such a hard when when Ross
(01:31:36):
came onto the show. I had such a hard time saying, Kamarinetts,
you're not the first month and I know and he
used to say it. I don't know why you think
it's so difficult.
Speaker 4 (01:31:45):
I don't know the way the way I said, but
how do you pronounce that? I go, I mean, it's
phonetically correct, right, it's just daunting to look at it.
Speaker 2 (01:31:54):
Really isn't that bad, though.
Speaker 5 (01:31:57):
Problematic because Camarainets or Kamarinets, but.
Speaker 4 (01:32:00):
People have always had cale Martinez.
Speaker 5 (01:32:02):
Oh you know, I get that, mart Yeah, Ross found
it out.
Speaker 6 (01:32:08):
It's one of those words, or in this particular case,
it's a name where you're better off hearing it and
then just going by that rather than trying to read it.
And even though you're right, it is fairly phonetically spelled out.
Speaker 4 (01:32:21):
Correct, there's nothing. There's no like silent.
Speaker 5 (01:32:24):
Okay, if it's phonetically accurate, go ahead, spell it.
Speaker 2 (01:32:34):
Wait a second Okay.
Speaker 4 (01:32:35):
That's why I just always went by Rosskak.
Speaker 2 (01:32:37):
Yeah. So we're gonna do this one. We're going to
do mortgage rate predictions for twenty twenty five. And the
article I read they interviewed people from the NASTY National
Association of Realtors, Economists and Bankers, people in the banking
industry as to what they think the interest rates will
(01:32:59):
be by the end of this year and then every
quarter in twenty twenty five. I found it to be
very interesting and buyers should be listening to this very carefully,
associate sellers. So right now, we're at six point four
to four Freddie macrate right now, six point four to
four percent for a thirty year loan. So where do
(01:33:19):
you think that the where do you think the predictions
are landing for the end of this quarter, the end
of twenty twenty four. Where do you think they think
interest rates will be by the time that by December
thirty first.
Speaker 5 (01:33:36):
So we're predicting what they're predicting are our own predictions?
Speaker 2 (01:33:39):
Now we're no, you're predicting. Okay, so let me start
this over. We're going to do mortgage rate predictions twenty
twenty five. So the end of the twenty twenty four quarter,
the fourth quarter for twenty twenty four, what do you
think the economists, the bankers, and the National Association Realtors
believe the interest will be by the end of this year?
Speaker 5 (01:34:01):
Six percent?
Speaker 2 (01:34:02):
What do you think I'd say? Six one six two? Okay,
And what do you think.
Speaker 3 (01:34:06):
I'm right there, like six to one six one, yeah.
Speaker 2 (01:34:08):
Uh, six point five percent. They think it's gonna be
a little higher than where we are right now. They
think it's going to stay pretty much where we are
right now, creep up a little bit by the end
of the year. Okay. So now, what do you think
the mortgage rate prediction for quarter one in twenty twenty
five will be based on these What do you think
they're predicting for the first quarter of twenty twenty five?
(01:34:30):
Mike six point twenty five, six point two five. I'm
gonna hold that up saying six point one six two, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (01:34:36):
I think that's the whole way through.
Speaker 2 (01:34:38):
Okay.
Speaker 6 (01:34:38):
Well, if they're predicting six point five, then again, maybe
five six six, maybe another slate increase.
Speaker 2 (01:34:45):
Okay, So they're thinking that we might get to six
point twenty five. Mike wins ding ding ding Uh. They're
so they're looking for they're thinking it's going to go
slightly down a quarter point down roughly for the first quarter. Now,
what what do you think the mortgage rate predictions for
quarter two and twenty twenty five will be, Mike.
Speaker 5 (01:35:05):
Six point two five six one six two yeah, six one.
Speaker 2 (01:35:10):
Six one okay six five six one six one the
uh they think that the rate will get down to
just about six percent is where they think it's gonna
get Okay, Uh, mortgage rate prediction for quarter three twenty
twenty three. I'm gonna start with ross six six, yeah, six.
Speaker 5 (01:35:33):
What do you think I think six point two five.
Speaker 2 (01:35:37):
Six point two five uh six is ding ding ding? Okay?
And then quarter four and twenty twenty five last quarter okay,
this last quiz part three percent five point seventy five okay,
five eight five point five to five point seven five?
Speaker 4 (01:35:58):
Wow?
Speaker 2 (01:35:58):
So why this is so listen to this. Yes, that's
what was surprising to me last quarter. So they're thinking
a year from now we might be down three quarters
of a point. That's it. That's it, guys.
Speaker 4 (01:36:10):
Thing.
Speaker 2 (01:36:11):
So this is the thing. This is what I'm trying
to tell sellers and buyers right now. The horizon for
interest rates. There is nothing on the horizon that thinks
you're going to get into even low fives, right, and
I'm waiting for three. Yeah, and so how old are you?
I'm joking, right, because you're gonna have to like double
your age.
Speaker 5 (01:36:31):
Can again, Okay, at the end of the year, they
said six.
Speaker 2 (01:36:34):
And a half. They think about six and a half
by the end of the year, right, And then the
first quarter we might go down to six point twenty five,
And then the next two quarters were going to be
between six and five seven five maybe, and then the
last quarter maybe five and a half, but five and
(01:36:55):
a half to five seven five. And here's the interesting thing.
The economists, the banker, and the National Association of Rilters,
all three of their predictions for each quarter were very
close to each other. There wasn't a wide divergence in
what they thought. So that's even to me even more
surprising that we didn't have any outliers where somebody thought, oh,
(01:37:17):
we're going to get to five and another person's thinks
we got to seven. Uh uh. Everybody was really tight.
So they're thinking that this is the interest rate that
we're going to be living with for quite some time,
and so what does that mean? Historically? The interest rates
we're having right now are pretty much average interest rates
(01:37:39):
over the last thirty years. And anybody waiting for that
four nine nine number, I'm not going to ever tell
you it's not going to happen, but betting on that
it's going to happen, Hey, go to Vegas and bet
it all on black, because you'll probably have a better
chance of picking that number, you know, picking red or
black versus four nine nine.
Speaker 4 (01:38:02):
Yeah, you could put your down payment on that on
black and win, and then now you can buy double
the house.
Speaker 2 (01:38:08):
Yeah, that's one way mortgage. And then if you lose
borrow less, if you lose what meant to be Yeah, Carbie, you.
Speaker 5 (01:38:18):
Know what's funny Jim about that? That's that trend there.
Speaker 2 (01:38:21):
Yeah, it's all down. They didn't predict a single up
tech out the year they did.
Speaker 5 (01:38:26):
What was the last year where we didn't have a
single up. Well, they're also doing per quarter, so I'm
not sure exactly what that means, like the average for
the quarter or the end at the end of the quarter.
So I don't really know what it means. But if
they're saying that rates won't go at any point during
the year. They're not going to be higher one month
compared to the year the month behind it. I always
say flat out they're going to be wrong about that, right,
(01:38:47):
I mean, just that's the way the mortgages.
Speaker 2 (01:38:49):
Just going up and down. Yeah, but there could be
a trend of either continuing to go down true, true,
or a trend to continue to.
Speaker 5 (01:38:56):
Get drawn a straight line on the chart, which waves
is gone. They're saying that's going down. Not huge, right,
not big movement, but they're going from six and a
half down.
Speaker 2 (01:39:04):
To five seven maybe a year five, right, I mean
we've seen that this year.
Speaker 5 (01:39:10):
You seen that, Yes, yes, we because we had a
crazy that's what they have. Not called for a spike
that allows for a point of downward movement. They're basically
saying the spike is now the end of the year
six and a half.
Speaker 2 (01:39:24):
Yeah, they think that this is going to be the
higher highest interest rates in the next year, but it's
only going to go down maybe three quarters of a
point roughly.
Speaker 4 (01:39:32):
So that's done your conversation. Twenty twenty six. We should
be seeing our fours, our threes and fours then, because
definitely wait for the two.
Speaker 5 (01:39:40):
Yes, does that tell you anything about what they're predicting
for the election, because I feel like, is the election.
Is the results of the election important for what's going
to happen with interest rates in the coming year.
Speaker 2 (01:39:54):
The article didn't bring it up at all, so I
can't tell you was the factor or not. But they
didn't bring up the election at all. What they did
say is that they felt that inflation is going to
continue to cool and the job market is going to
But they they definitely all are believing in the soft landing,
(01:40:15):
that whole soft landing thing that we've heard over and
over again. They all bought into the soft landing. They
think we are not going into a recession. They don't
think a recession is on the horizon for next year, right,
They don't think that that's happening.
Speaker 5 (01:40:28):
They might be saying it doesn't matter who wins the presidency,
the economy is mostly independent from that.
Speaker 2 (01:40:37):
Historically, from this show, because we started in twenty twelve, right,
So we had an election right before we started the
show in twenty twenty twelve, right, And we've had four
elections since we've been on the show. If I'm not mistaken,
this is the fourth election presidential election. I have never
(01:40:58):
seen in any of these elections, and some of them
were very controversial elections, like this time where people were
very red or blue and they were like, you know,
don't probbly my color from you can pribe my color
from my cold dead fingers, right, like of which that
I'm going to be on. Yeah, So it's been very emotional.
Several times in those elections. Everybody said the same thing,
(01:41:20):
I want to wait to do something until after the election.
Nothing happened after the election. It didn't matter who got elected,
and we had some surprise elections in there where people
thought one person was going to be elected to not
and it still didn't affect real estate market. You know
what affected real estate market, COVID. You know what real
affected real estate market, increasing insurance rates because of fraud. Right,
(01:41:43):
That affected real estate market.
Speaker 4 (01:41:45):
Right.
Speaker 2 (01:41:46):
You know what else affected real estate market? Inventory? Inventory
affects real estate market lending practices, right.
Speaker 6 (01:41:53):
Well, I would go back to like TEA, catastrophic events
like that, and you know.
Speaker 3 (01:41:58):
COVID being another big one, to.
Speaker 2 (01:42:00):
Regulation, right or regulation so but but those things are
not really related specifically to the president. To the president,
and especially right after the election, it might. It might.
There might be an effect from a presidential decision on something,
but it usually has to percolate for a while and
you see the results later in that year. You're not
(01:42:22):
going to have an election in November and January. Something
amazing is going to happen, good or bad in the
real estate market. It's just that isn't the way that
the state market's built.
Speaker 5 (01:42:33):
You know, if we say the big mover is the FED,
which it is, right, We've talked about how it's not
tied directly whatever, but it is a big mover and
you can you can watch that trend. And the FED
is supposed to be independent from you know, from the
party in power.
Speaker 2 (01:42:48):
Yeah, and one of the things I supposed to be.
I'm a big believer of checks and bounces on everything
related to government. You have to have checks and bounces.
No side can get stronger than the other side the
other for a long period of time. Yes, So you
have to have checks and bounces. And having that FED
is an independent body, I think is really really important
(01:43:11):
because it's too easy on the political side to say, hey,
I want lower interest rates so I can get elected, right,
or I want this and I want to do that
without worrying about the long term effects of dropping the
interest rates heating up inflation, things like that. I mean
this halfpoint cut the Fed did, people are really worrying
(01:43:32):
that that it's going to cause what we were talking
about a couple of weeks ago on the show reinflation.
You know, we've talked about inflation, deflation, stagflation. Now the
new term is reinflation. Are we gonna create such a
frenzy by dropping interest rates and everything that people start
spending too much in go nuts again and affect the
(01:43:55):
economy that way and heat it up?
Speaker 5 (01:43:56):
If the cost of borrowing gets less' going to borrow?
Speaker 2 (01:44:00):
People going to borrow?
Speaker 5 (01:44:02):
What do you do with borrow money? Ross spend it spend?
Speaker 2 (01:44:06):
Well?
Speaker 6 (01:44:06):
That kind of goes along to the question that I
had too, What about our national debt and compared to
that FED rate, how much does that affect whether or
not the Fed wants to drop because obviously the higher
the interest rate, the quicker our debt accumulates.
Speaker 2 (01:44:21):
Absolutely, Jimothy, I totally agree with that because I read
a wonky article six months ago talking about that that
they might drop The Fed might drop the rate, not
because they're worried about inflation or the job market. They
might do it just to reduce the national government's debt
monthly debt to pay that what is it, thirty two
(01:44:44):
trillion dollars that we owe or whatever?
Speaker 3 (01:44:46):
Thirty five now, yeah, or like one trillion every four months.
Speaker 2 (01:44:50):
Crazy, it's crazy, It's insane. So there is a theory
that they might do it for that reason, which isn't
a healthy reason to do it. It's just like the
political for reason of dropping the interest rates to get elected.
If you're dropping the FED rate just because the Fed
can't we can't afford to pay our monthly debt service,
(01:45:12):
that's a big problem, right, that that would be a
big problem.
Speaker 5 (01:45:15):
So the federal government is on adjustable rate borrowing, right,
adjustable rate mortgages.
Speaker 2 (01:45:24):
Right, Actually, it kind of is adjustable rate, right, it
is kind of So that could be a factor later on.
Speaker 5 (01:45:31):
We should think about getting them into a fixed rate.
Speaker 2 (01:45:33):
Yeah, is it is it time, Jimothy? Yeah? I didn't
even really. Oh my my thing is a little different
on mine. I don't know why.
Speaker 5 (01:45:43):
Oh, so you haven't adjusted for East Coast, haven't?
Speaker 2 (01:45:46):
Just well, well we've had well, we've had another day,
another great day here at Florida Talk real Estate. I
hope everybody enjoyed what we talked about. Please don't forget
to subscribe to our YouTube page and subscribe and life
like it and if you can comment it and even
share it to let other people know about what we're about.
(01:46:06):
We give some really valuable information about Florida real estate market.
So if you have an interest in that, we're the
people to go to. Ross from bright Way Insurance. Thank
you so much today for being here.
Speaker 4 (01:46:18):
You're welcome. I know everybody has a great weekend.
Speaker 2 (01:46:20):
I'm so glad that you're feeling better. You've found so
much stronger than last week where you're hacking up along
the rough three weeks. Yeah it was back. And Mike,
thanks for coming on the show again this week like
all the time. And I hope you have a great weekend.
Yeah you too, thank you yep, yep. And Jimothy, I
hope you have an awesome, awesome weekend. Are you doing
anything special this weekend now?
Speaker 6 (01:46:40):
I no, nothing, nothing big, just to you know, keep
it on the honeydew list. And of course football, you
have me some really good Major League baseball going on
right now. If you're especially if you're a New York
baseball fan at all.
Speaker 2 (01:46:54):
Yeah, yeah, it's so true.
Speaker 3 (01:46:56):
They walloped the Dodgers.
Speaker 6 (01:46:57):
That that's while the Dodgers last night and didn't see
that coming, just the way it's been such an up
and down series, Mats.
Speaker 2 (01:47:05):
And then let me ask you, are you doing any
events for Dolphins this weekend.
Speaker 6 (01:47:09):
Yeah, I'll be up at Big Shots in Vero Beach
for a Big Shots light watch party.
Speaker 3 (01:47:13):
From twelve thirty to two thirty tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (01:47:17):
Supposedly one of the best places to retire, one of
the best family oriented cities. We talked about the two
weeks ago Vero Beach.
Speaker 3 (01:47:23):
That's a fun place to go to.
Speaker 6 (01:47:24):
It's a great place to watch some football and hit
some golf balls too, if you're into it.
Speaker 2 (01:47:28):
Oh, that's golf. It's like a top golf or something
like that. Type of Thank you, awesome, awesome, good, good, good,
Well everybody, Thank you so much for checking out the show.
You can watch the reruns on our YouTube page. Have
a great weekend.
Navigating today's real estate market can be tricky. Want to
buy or sell a house, finance or insure a house,
or stuck with a house.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
And don't know what to do.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Florida Talk real Estate has been your local one stop
real estate shop since twenty twelve. Get the advice you
need from your local real estate pros. Here are your hosts,
Jim Depola and Johnny c Live on Real Radio.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Good Good morning.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
I was waiting for Ross since he's sitting in the
big chair today. I said, you're at Ross, and then
we have blank air air if.
Speaker 4 (00:50):
If we were to discuss it, I may have.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
We did. We did about three minutes ago. Man, you're
in the big chair. You gotta gotta play with the
big boys in the room. Hey, Happy South Florida, everybody.
Johnny has a well deserved day off. He's with his
family on some kind of musical adventure. So I hope
he enjoys and joys and joys, and I hope the
(01:13):
weather holds up. For Man, it's been cloudy all day yesterday,
but it didn't rain anywhere I was. Did it rain
anybody where? Were you?
Speaker 4 (01:20):
Guys?
Speaker 2 (01:20):
Were just overcast all day long.
Speaker 4 (01:22):
Just overcast and I kept on looking up my phone
to say, like, is it going to rain today? And
it was no chance of rain the whole entire.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
Day where I was anyway, Yeah, it was crazy and
it was really dark all day long. I did not
like waking up this morning. We're getting close to that
daylight savings time change, isn't it. It's a little dark. Yeah,
I heard so much darker today?
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Is it?
Speaker 4 (01:43):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (01:43):
I don't know when is it?
Speaker 3 (01:45):
Is it November third? I think there's when it changes.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Oh my god. I don't want to fall back. I
don't like falling back.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
The extra hour of you know sleep technically for one day.
I don't.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
Yeah, when I when I started my own company, after
you know, after working for corporate, you know, corporation for
so long. When I started my own company, I promised
myself that I would never fall back, and I would
just adjust the times to fit the old schedule. So
if something was at uh, you know, eight o'clock, in
(02:19):
my mind, it would be nine o'clock, right, But and
I would just adjust except for government meetings. Right, if
there was a government meeting, you can't you can't miss it,
right because it's at the time. But every time I've
tried it. I failed miserably. I'd last like a month
and then I would give up and I would slide
into the regular time.
Speaker 4 (02:36):
That's trying to It's like going, you know, trying to
use meters.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
Yeah, the metrics, metrics.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
Try to stick to the metrics or.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
This stupid fahrenheit celsius that drives me crazy when they
talk about celsius degrees. I don't I don't get it.
So I'm a fahrenheit guy.
Speaker 5 (02:59):
I heard Itoop good U metric unit joke the other day.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
I saw it.
Speaker 5 (03:03):
It was if if US Americans smile, then do Europeans skilometer? Anyway,
if Johnny were here, he would have laughed, but he
also would have introduced everybody what the show was.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
I know, we go live. I think that. I think
Mike is just asked to be in the big chair. Sorry, Mike,
I chewed it up.
Speaker 4 (03:28):
No, I'm just a gentle reminder that you're not Johnny.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Well the gentle reminder person. The person gentle reminding is
Mike Ralph from the mortgage firm, otherwise known as the
mortgage guy to us at everybody here, Mike, welcome to
the show. Thank you, good morning, and the person sitting
in the big chair today is Ross Kamernis from Bright
Winning Insurance Juno Beach office, the only office when you're
thinking of insurance in Florida and now Georgia. Yeah right,
(03:54):
he's in Georgia now, and Mike is, uh Florida, Georgia.
I always get this from South Carolina's right, Tennessee, Colorado, Virginia,
and Virginia. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you're growing. I just trying
to own conglomerate.
Speaker 5 (04:10):
I just talked to someone this week who is considering
Virginia or Colorado, so ah, okay, I can help you.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
Yeah, I either go or by one in each.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
Is that super extensive to do, Mike?
Speaker 6 (04:23):
I mean, just like what do you gotta think a
test or something in each state you.
Speaker 5 (04:28):
You got to there's a course requirement, so you know,
something like first state something like eight hours of individual
state regulation learning and then you pay, you pay for
the you know, pay annual annual fee, you take the course,
you pass some level of tests, right, and then you
(04:50):
pay their registration.
Speaker 6 (04:51):
Require big differences from one state to another with the
regulations that are required.
Speaker 5 (04:58):
I'm trying to think of any differences at all, whatsoever?
Speaker 2 (05:01):
And none.
Speaker 5 (05:03):
So now I learned the same thing over and over again.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
Right.
Speaker 4 (05:06):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Yeah, So there's no really federal performing right, because it's
all about conforming federally.
Speaker 5 (05:13):
Uh yeah, I mean yes, all the all the regulations
for residential lending come nationally, right, they come from the
federal gun.
Speaker 4 (05:21):
Right.
Speaker 5 (05:21):
There's some state stuff that I guess individual finds, you know,
may vary by state. If you're like breaking the rules,
if you're doing maybe it's like advertising discrepancies, or you're
doing things like targeting certain groups in certain neighborhood, you know,
things like that, those would be local and state kind
of regulation or things that you could you could break.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Those rules that totally.
Speaker 5 (05:44):
Yeah, maybe I should pay more attention in the class.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
The difference. But when you don't break the rules, you
don't have to worry about that. I'm not a rule breaker. Yeah,
you don't have to worry about it all.
Speaker 5 (05:53):
At least not in my professional life.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (05:57):
Personally.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
Yeah, I wanted just to do a little thing about
Hurricane Milton from was it last week or the week
before last?
Speaker 5 (06:05):
Two weeks ago if you're talking about this most recent week.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
No, yeah, it was the week before last. Yeah, the
week before last week. It was the ninth, ninth, tenth. Okay,
so we're the nineteen, so ten days, a week and
a half ago, Yeah, exactly. So they have a little
bit more information about the tornadoes, because I got to
tell you, I've been a little like, very curious about
this whole tornado thing because I covered so many hurricanes
(06:30):
and lived through so many. I've never seen tornadoes like
this before in my life.
Speaker 4 (06:34):
Weather modification.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
Yeah, well, yeah, yeah, you know, someone control those stupid
contrails from the from the planes. Who's talking? Who's talking? Now?
How you did take you?
Speaker 4 (06:47):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (06:47):
So did you watch The Wizard of Oz at some
point in your youth?
Speaker 2 (06:52):
Of course? So that was with with David Gilmore, not
what Pink Floyd. I've even done the Pink Voyd show.
Speaker 5 (07:00):
You you played the soundtrack Dark Side of the Moon.
Was it Dark Side or is it the Dark Side?
Okaya's Dark Side of the Moon? I think right, yeah, yeah,
Dark Side of the.
Speaker 2 (07:08):
Moon as a soundtrack, and it lines up or whatever.
I think after the third Roar of the Lion you
turned it on. Okay, I think that's what you done.
Speaker 3 (07:15):
I've never heard of that my life.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Yeah, I've heard it. If you turn on the movie
and have it the Pink Floyd, the whole thing set up.
Then after the third roar of the Lion, you know them,
Oh okay, okay, then you hit that. That's exactly when
you hit play on on Pink Floyd, No kidd, and
(07:37):
it matches pretty good, No kid, Yeah, it's really just
match pretty good. Yeah. I have a little off the
reserve and enjoy it. Yeah, Yeah, it's fun. If anybody
hasn't try that, you haven't never heard of that?
Speaker 4 (07:49):
No, I've heard of it. I've just never never done it.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
You're never stupid enough. This was like, let me try this.
Speaker 4 (07:55):
I mean one, I got to track down a Pink
Floyd Dark Side of the Moon album, that's true, and
then I have to track down a copy of Wizard
of Oz.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Which has the three which has the three roars in it, right.
Speaker 4 (08:08):
And then magically put that together. And I just haven't.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
That's too much. It's not that hard, that's too technically.
Speaker 5 (08:14):
You can get that album at at like, what's the bookstore?
Speaker 4 (08:18):
Is a board?
Speaker 6 (08:18):
No?
Speaker 2 (08:19):
No, why are you guys talking about album? Why do
you just get it online so you can actually get
your record?
Speaker 5 (08:23):
He wants to do the you got to buy a
record player.
Speaker 4 (08:28):
Record player.
Speaker 5 (08:29):
Yeah, yeah, okay, let's you know, those needles are very
hard to find. Remember that when that was a scare
record needles were going to become scarce.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
Yeah. I scratched up my records really really bad all
the time too.
Speaker 5 (08:43):
That was.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
I didn't do that. It was one of those.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Guys come buyer House with.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
Jimmy d That's why they games, Damn man, Rob. So
I wanted to go a little bit over the I
wanted to go a little bit over the tornado thing
because to me, it was really, like I said, fascinating
about how many there were. Apparently it isn't. It isn't
as unusual as I thought. That was surprising to me itself.
(09:12):
But anyway, what they found out is now that the
smoke cleared, there were total fifteen tornadoes in South Florida.
Two of them got to EF three's, which is one
hundred and thirty miles an hour or more, so pretty strong.
Two of them pretty strong. One was in Palm Beach County,
the other one was in Glades County. There were four
(09:34):
total in Palm Beach County. And the other thing I
thought that was interesting about this was some of the
other some of the other hurricanes have had almost as
many hurricanes as this. There were thirteen from Ian, thirteen
confirmed tornadoes, I said, hurricanes, I'm sorry, tornadoes. Thirteen confirmed
(09:56):
tornadoes from Hurricane Ian. That was split over two days.
So I thought that was interesting that there were tornadoes
over two days and instead of just the one. They
also noticed that where is it, I'm sorry, I'm looking here.
Pombach County in the state has the highest tornado count
(10:19):
on record, with one hundred and ninety three tornadoes from
nineteen fifty to twenty twenty three, So over seventy three years,
we've had one hundred and ninety three tornadoes in Palm
Beach County. I thought that was kind of interesting too.
So we certainly don't talk about it much. Yeah, you
don't hear about it much, but apparently you know, and
(10:40):
most of the tornadoes I think I'm thinking. My theory
is a lot of them are really weak, like they're
just barely tornadoes.
Speaker 4 (10:48):
Or are they're an uninhabited area.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
Or are they going to uninhabited And that's why they
were saying it was kind of hard to even know
about the four that hit here because some of them
had no Some of them they did determine how strong
they were by the track of damage, and a couple
of these there wasn't any even any track of damage
that they could do, so they had to estimate what
it was. But I thought that was kind of interesting.
(11:12):
So tornadoes isn't, you know, not necessarily as unusual as
probably a lot of people think, But the power of
these were definitely unusual. There were very few EF three's
or more that have hit in the whole history of Florida.
Speaker 4 (11:26):
And as we've become more populated and build more houses
and build more structures, we might start to notice them more.
Speaker 5 (11:34):
Yes, less, yes, lessa just like hurricane damage.
Speaker 4 (11:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Oh, and that reminds me speaking to about hurricanes. There
was a gentleman who sent me a very very long
email which I really appreciated last week after the show
because we were talking about that nineteen twenty something hurricane
and who wasn't here last week? I feel like somebody
wasn't here last week? Mike, were you not here last week?
(12:00):
I was definitely here? Okay, So Ross, we had a
crew me you were, maybe you were, maybe I was.
Speaker 4 (12:07):
I remember seeing Jim Yeah, out of it.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
The reason why I'm bringing it up is there we
were talking about the unnamed storm hurricane in the nineteen
twenties that really it broke the damn and it created
all this damage. I had a gentleman that is a
history buff, you could tell, and he wrote me a
very long email about this. I don't remember everything and
I couldn't find it today, but I'm going to talk
(12:32):
about it next week because he said he was making
some corrections, so some of this stuff I said last
week might not have been as accurate. I was going
off of memory from an article I wrote probably in
nineteen ninety thirty four years ago, so I probably wasn't
one hundred percent accurate. But I do care about being
an accurate on the show. We actually care about that.
Speaker 5 (12:50):
Who was the history buff? Is it a regular It was.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
Just a regular listener? Yeah, he was no, and he
was very very polite, and he says, I listen to
you guys all the time. But I could see that
he said I got it wrong, and I'm like, oh,
I want to read this, but I was driving because
it was right after the show, and then by the
time I tried to get back to it last night,
I couldn't find it, so I know I'm going to
find it, and I'll make any corrections that I have
(13:14):
to make at that point.
Speaker 4 (13:16):
But okay, how you're going to retract it?
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Yeah, yeah, we'll not retract. I just want to clarify.
I want to clarify because I wasn't trying to skew
the information one way or though that was just based
off memory. Everywhere these days, I know you had to
fact check everything now, right, And a couple other things
I wanted to talk about. We're going to get into
some short insurance things later on in the show, but
(13:39):
I wanted to talk about something that I thought was
kind of interesting Florida. Here's an article from the Pombach
Post Florida Property Citizens Florida property inspections paying off for citizens.
So apparently one of the things that citizens did was
they made sure that they funded to have inspectors to
(14:00):
go out to all the properties pre hurricane. Not just
pre hurricane, but as policies are written to really make
sure that there isn't any problems with the properties beforehand
so they can notify the homeowner. You need to correct
this and this and this so that if the house
gets damaged in the future. Citizens isn't on the hook
(14:22):
for stuff that they shouldn't be on the hook for.
And supposedly they're saying that those checks, if you will,
or the checks on property inspection checks are really saving
a lot of money. They think that they they did
since twenty twenty two, they've done four hundred thousand of
(14:43):
these well I'm sorry, I'm take that back. They've increased
the property holder policy holder inspections by one hundred and
sixty six percent since June twenty two. But they're thinking
that this year alone, they're going to have done four
hundred thousand of these pre inspections, if you will, and
(15:03):
they think it's saving It's cost them about forty five
million to do those inspections, but they're saying that they
get the forty five million back plus another one hundred
million is savings by.
Speaker 5 (15:18):
Just having the status of the of the home documented
at some.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Point and telling the homeowners they have to correct before
you know, or they're not going to be covered. And
I'm assuming that the homeowners are correcting. I mean, that's
what I'm expecting. So this is a positive thing.
Speaker 4 (15:32):
By the way, you could substitute citizens for ABC insurance company,
Cyz insurance company, because they're all doing it right, right,
So it's not you know, unique to citizens.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
Right right. And but the thing I like about this
is that citizens is taking the responsibility to do and
I think it's a good thing. Anything we could do
in order to save costs for insurance, that's what we
need to be doing right now, because this is really
a crisis in my opinion, the potential for crisis. It
isn't a crisis now. A crisis would be bills aren't
(16:05):
being paid, right, there is enough money to pay the bills, right.
We don't see that on any of the companies yet.
We haven't heard that. They're not even expecting that to happen.
But anything we could do to reduce costs in Florida
for insurance is a good thing. And you've got to
keep if you're on the house and you have insurance,
you got to keep the house up to a certain
standard of responsibility, not just for you but for the community.
Speaker 5 (16:29):
So do they do those inspections ross at any other
time in like the life. Let's say you have citizens
for five years, are they going to inspect it once
a year? Is it just just after the initial policy
or is it kind of random?
Speaker 4 (16:46):
So there they kind of like they just started, like
they're ramping up these inspections. Citizens is doing a lot
of them at renewal or they're requiring an inspection in
order to renew, and they're doing a new business as well,
So this is kind of that first year that they're
doing it. I don't think that there if you had,
(17:07):
if you needed to have your home inspected this year
in order to renew, I don't think they're going to
do it again. Okay, And this is different than like
your winman in your four point This is actually citizens
sending out their own inspector or contracting it correct all
the insurance Whenever a new policy is written, the insurance
companies do some sort of inspection. You may not notice
(17:29):
it as a homeowner because it may just be an
exterior where they come out and just do a quick
look around. Okay, roof looks good, you know, everything looks good.
If it's an older home, they may want to come
inside and schedule a time to do that, and that's
going to be the same thing as a four point inspection.
But they're putting their eyes on it. You know, us
as agents are considered kind of upfront underwriters. Right, we
(17:51):
get a four point Hey, according to this document, does
it meet the requirements in order to go with this
insurance company. It looks good to us of it to them,
but they're still going to want to put their eyes
on it to make sure.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
And it's interesting. One of the things they use as
an example of a person that was threatened to have
their policy canceled if they didn't make a correction was
having a trampoline in the backyard and apparently that's a
violation to some homeowners policies.
Speaker 4 (18:20):
I'm guessing trampolines, pool slides, diving boards, you know, anything
where that can lead to kind of an injury and lawsuit.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
Yeah, so it isn't just about is the roof leaking
or whatever, It's like anything related to the policy. So anyway,
I thought that was interesting. They're saying it saves It
saved them over one hundred million dollars from these inspections.
So that's a good thing. Another another good story, and
I just wanted to wrap up this part made me
feel really good. There was an article on The New
(18:48):
York Times about the student loan modification and public service
employee relief for student loans. They finally this program has
been out two thousand and seven. We've probably been talking
about this program, which we've done through the law office
of Polycrasker since twenty thirteen, twenty fourteen, and they finally
(19:11):
hit their one millionth public service employee that got the
student Wow, the student loan debt really.
Speaker 5 (19:17):
That's that's a ten year program. So that means somebody,
potentially somebody you talked to or you put them onto it,
in twenty twenty three or twenty four they've completed their
student loan repayment.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
Then forgiven. I'm actually getting a little tingle right now.
And I'm not joking. I got a little tingle here
because my skin because you know, we we were very
much apart. I can't say a huge chunk of it,
but we contributed to that whole relief of debt to
public and service employees. There's just an awesome pro awareness. Yeah,
(19:51):
and getting them through the program and having a watch
to go through that. I remember, this student loan debt
relief program is based on your ability to afford your
student loan monthly payment. It isn't related to how much
you owe on the oh on the loan. It's how
much you can afford to pay every month, And there's
(20:12):
an actual, real mathematical formula the federal government does based
on your income and your bills to say, this is
how much we believe that you can pay for your
student loan payment every month. Usually for most people it
was a tiny fraction of what they had to pay, Right, Mike,
You've seen people five hundred dollars a month go down
(20:32):
to twenty five or fifty dollars a month. Right, We've
seen how many people get zero dollars a month, like
just don't have to pay anything, and it counts as
if they're making payments every month. This program for the
publican service employees was really great because after ten years,
whatever you paid, if you were paying zero dollars a
(20:53):
month because that was your income based formula, and you
did that for ten years, you paid zero dollars a month,
but you kept in the program by applying every year.
Ten years later, whatever you owed is just wiped away
and forgiven. So that's what the beauty of this program is.
You're not saddled with the debt forever. Ten years does
(21:15):
sound like a long time, but for most people you're
paying just a fraction of what the monthly payment would be.
Plus you're with a federal government program where the interest
doesn't accrue for not making payments. There's no recruel or
penalty fees of that. It's just hey, based on your income,
you're only supposed to pay twenty five dollars a month,
(21:37):
and as long as you do that, you're in compliance
with the program. So really proud about that, Really happy
to see that we've had a million people. Part of
me is a little sad about it because it's only
a million people since shot out two seven. It should
have been five million or something probably right, But still
a million people have gone through this program. I think
it's awesome. They've saved about sex one hundred and seventy
(22:01):
five billion in student loan debt through this program. One
hundred and seventy five billion.
Speaker 5 (22:08):
Are they basically forgiven that much? Yes, So that savings somebody.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
Savings for the for the homeowner or not the loan
the loan student. Yeah, the student right, or the former student,
or the parent of the student because they have parent
student forgiveness loans too. Where as a parent you.
Speaker 5 (22:27):
Had the parent plus loans. I didn't know those were
eligible for.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
Yes, they're good. Yeah, for ability to pay thing, And
it's basically it's really based on your ability to pay.
So how that program works is, let's say that you're
making I'm making it up. You're making fifty fifty thousand
a year, and your student loan debt is five hundred
dollars a month. Well, based on your mathematical formula that
(22:51):
Paul Krasker will get you through the whole thing, right,
it'll it'll spit out a number. Hey, you're supposed to
pay one hundred and twelve dollars and fifty seven cents
a month. You're supposed to pay nothing based on your thing,
whatever the number is, and then you're locked in for
that number for the year. You make the payments for
a year, then at the end of the year you
have to reapply again. Let's say though, that now you're
(23:12):
not making fifty thousand. You got this great job, and
now you're making one hundred and fifty thousand a year. Well,
that year they recalculate your formula. Now maybe that year
you pay the full five hundred dollars a month. I
don't know, Okay, And then you get through that year
and on the third year, Let's say you lose that
fabulous job and now you're not working anywhere. Okay, Now
(23:34):
you go through the mathematical formula and your result's going
to be and I've seen this happen with many people. Zero.
You're going to pay zero dollars this year, and then
you go through the year, and you just continue to
do that for a public service employee for ten years
and then it's over. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (23:48):
They essentially do like an annual debt to income calculation,
and so they're adding up your income and then they're
adding up your other debt obligation things like your housing
or rent payments, car payments, and they figure out how
much you have leftover that's maybe discretionary and some percentage
like that is how they use So.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
Yeah, and the other thing that's great about this is
that we used it the reason why we started talking
about on our real estate show. Right while we're talking
about student loans back in twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen,
twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen, we were talking about how the
number one drag on the economy at that point was
(24:28):
student loan debt. Right that was the number one drag
on the economy, and they were saying, if the student
loan debt was wiped out, it would supercharge the economy
because there's so much money that's being used for that
that would be spilling into the regular economy if it
wasn't there, because we know most people don't say they're
going to spend it, so.
Speaker 5 (24:48):
Yeah there, and they're you know, they started making changes
in the in the lending, like how you had to
treat the student owned balances, how if you had to
calculate a payment even you know, even if it was
deferred for twelve months or eighteen months, you had to calculate.
And it was impacting people's ability to qualify for mortgages.
So even if you didn't have to make a payment
on your student loan, you were kind of kicking the
can down. It could still impact your ability to quality
(25:11):
still counted it as part of your debt, and so
we still do.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
YEP. So what happens is when Mike goes through the
review process for all customers, he always asked do you
have any student loan debt? And then a lot of
times it's like, oh, we're really going to help you out.
Let's get you over to law as a polycrasker. You
can do that program for free. Guys. There is really
no charge for doing that public loan forgiveness program, but
(25:37):
you have to be sharp enough to understand how to
present the numbers correctly to the federal government. We've seen
many customers. So what most people do is they go
to Paul. The law off is Polycrascer, which is one
of the few private law firms that's allowed to do this.
Mostly it's nonprofit groups. But with Paul, he charges you
(26:00):
a nominal fee to get it going, and then just
a one time fee every year to reapply, and he
puts it in the system so you don't forget to
reapply because so if you don't reapply, you get kicked
out of the program. Yeah, one of my customers was
in the program, Darryl and Amy. They were in the
program for like eight years and they kept paying Paul
every year to reapply. Then one year they called me
(26:22):
up and they said, hey, Jim, they were paying nothing.
They were supposed to be paying about five hundred dollars
a month and they were paying nothing for seven years.
And then he calls me up. He goes, hey, my
student loan bill went up to fifteen hundred dollars a month,
and I'm like, what does Paul have to say about this?
He goes, we didn't use Paul this year. So what
(26:42):
happened was they kind of didn't turn in their numbers correctly.
And basically, when you're o debt, you don't have to
use the joint income. Even if you filed jointly, you
could just use the personal person's the one that owes
the debt. You use their information to determine the ability
(27:04):
to pay. And they didn't do it that way, and
then Paul, they went I told them to go back
to Paul. Didn't know if they can get back in
the program. Right, they did, They got back in the program.
They got lucky.
Speaker 4 (27:13):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (27:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (27:14):
I think there's different ways like when they when you know,
when you talk about debt to income, like how do
they calculate your income? Or they using pay stubs or
they using W two's, are they using tax return? So
I think there's a variety of ways. They're kind of
like options, and so if the idea is to you know,
show the least amount of income, you want to choose
(27:36):
the option that does that.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
I think that's the idea.
Speaker 5 (27:39):
So, whether that's an individual tax return or my portion
of the joint tax return, right, somehow you have to
show that hey, wait a second, that's our household income.
That's nothing to do with my personal.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
Income, right exactly. So, if you're saddled with student loan debt,
or you know somebody that's saddled, or you're a parent
that signed on for student loan debt for you your kid,
give us a call whell I'll get your free consultation.
We're going to tell you exactly the paperwork you need
to give. It's all over the phone. We used to say,
(28:09):
it's ten questions, ten minutes, and you get your answer,
and they're going to give you the law office Polykrasker.
If you give them the correct information, they're going to
give you to the penny what the federal government is
going to ask you to pay every month, and then
you can decide if you want to move forward or
not after you find out the terms. And it's not
just for public service employees, it's not just like government
(28:30):
workers or anything. If you have student loan debt and
it's government backed, they're going to be able to help
you with it. So give us a call. We'd love
to talk to about it, and congratulations on the million
public service employees that went through the program. Let's go
ahead and take a break, and on the flip side,
we're going to talk a little bit about citizens Insurance. Ross.
(28:50):
I get a lot of people that when they're getting
a new home, they'll like actually complain like it's a
dirty worder. It's like, oh man, I have to get
citizens Insurance. So we're going to talk about a little
bit about the myths and the reality of having citizens
Insurance as your insurance policy holder. And we're going to
do that on the flip side. Sounds good, Okay, cool?
Speaker 1 (29:27):
This is Florida Talk Real Estate with Jim Depola and
Johnny C. Got a question for the show. Call us
live at one eight seven seven ninety seven sixty nine
sixty nine.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
Hey, everyone, is Florida Talk Real Estate, Happy South Florida.
I forgot that I was Jimmy D today placing Johnny
C on a well deserved musical venture today with his family.
I hope he's doing great. We got a lot of
things to talk about. We're going to talk about a
little bit about the reputation of Citizens Insurance. Later on
(29:58):
we're going to be talking about why are the mortgage
rates going up? Because they are going up and you
can't believe how high they're going up, how fast, and
what they expect to happen in the future. But before
we get into some of this stuff, one of our
people on Facebook who are watching live on Facebook mcgalley,
she had a question about Edison Insurance Ross. She said
(30:20):
that she heard on one of our recent shows that
when you renew with the same company sometimes you get
a slight decrease in the prices. I don't remember us
saying that, but I remember she saying that.
Speaker 4 (30:35):
I think. I think recently I've said I've seen renewals
come down with carriers. Yeah, the renewal rate was actually
a little bit less than the previous rate, but it's
not a standard for sure.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
Because she was wondering, she's been with the same company
now for about three years since she's wondered if she
can should get a second opinion.
Speaker 4 (30:59):
And any time you want, why not?
Speaker 2 (31:01):
YEP? I agree. So mcgally, if what you can do
is off air, you could either do and this is
for everybody. You can contact us on our eight eight
eight number eight eight eight nine seven three seven eight
two eight. When you call that, it goes to a
live answering service and they'll actually take your real information
and then I get it right away and call you back.
(31:22):
You can go to our website floridatalkrealestate dot com. Just
click on the contact us button and then it'll send
us an email. And is there any other way? I
really suck at being Johnny? Is there any other way
to contact us? I feel like there's another way and
I'm not to contact us. No, Yeah, that's all right.
It's the eight number, Yeah, the eighty eight, or just
(31:43):
go to Florida Talk dot com contact Yeah.
Speaker 5 (31:47):
Hot Ross bright Way Juno.
Speaker 2 (31:49):
Yeah. Right.
Speaker 5 (31:51):
You can look at Mike Row with the mortgage firm.
Speaker 2 (31:54):
Yeah, Mike Crow from the mortgage.
Speaker 5 (31:55):
The easiest way is that eight eight eight number. You
call in and then you get not only do you
get to talk to the professional you want, you also
can build a relationship with Jim.
Speaker 2 (32:05):
Yeah. That gets you into the database. And when you're
in our database, you get a weekly email from us
telling you kind of what's going on in the market. Soon,
we're going to have like little YouTube videos connected to
those emails, which are going to be very newsy fact
based things that are happening in the market right now,
very short, one minute long videos just to kind of
(32:28):
keep a prize of what's going on in the market. Mcgaly.
So all you have to do is reach out to us.
She's saying, I'm sorry, I misunderstood. Don't worry about misunderstanding.
We don't know half the stuff we're talking about anyway,
I'm joking. So we'd love to get a second quote
just to see what would happen. And no promises either way.
Ross isn't going to high pressure you.
Speaker 4 (32:49):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (32:49):
Ross has just mentioned a couple of times over the
past what month and a half that you know, prices
have come down slightly, you know, just a little bit
to some of that reversing. You know, the law was
that they kind of adjusted for a fraud that was
going on in Florida is starting to work its way
into the system and prices are not only not going up,
(33:09):
but maybe slightly coming down.
Speaker 4 (33:12):
Yeah, a little bit. You know, I've seen a few
come down, I would say, holding steady and not experiencing
the same increases that we had been you know.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
So, yeah, I was at a business networking group and
the insurance person there mentioned that they're starting to see
some people getting slight decreases or just holding tight, which
is much better than getting those sixteen percent twenty percent.
Speaker 4 (33:37):
Yeah. Like one of my press that we were getting
his renewal went down seven dollars, right, okay, yeah, it
went down, but.
Speaker 2 (33:44):
For the year.
Speaker 4 (33:45):
Yeah, okay, right, take it.
Speaker 2 (33:47):
Yeah, hey, yeah, you got to take it. It's better
than seeing a sixteen percent jump every year.
Speaker 4 (33:52):
Yeah, which I won't call that a rate decrease.
Speaker 2 (33:54):
Yes, absolutely anything. You know, it's almost like when you're
playing blackjack at the casino if it's a push, yeah,
push to win, pushes to win. Right, It's better than
you getting the money than they getting the money. That's
the way it is. Hey, Speaking of insurance, Ross, I
wanted to talk to you a little bit about citizens'
insurance because a lot of times when I'm talking to
(34:17):
people and they end up getting citizen insurance or they
already have it, they say it like this, yeah, I
got citizens insurance. You know, I don't know what's going
to happen if, you know, if I need to file
acclaim or something, and they talk very down about it,
and you know, citizen insurance has been described in the
newspapers and the media as the insurance company of last
(34:40):
resort in Florida. Right, So that doesn't sound very good.
Insurance the last resort, right, But is that realistic? Is
that a realistic attitude to have about Citizens' Insurance?
Speaker 4 (34:53):
Not at all. I mean, yeah, it does get painted
as an inferior insurance company, you know, insurer of last resort.
But I mean it was originally designed to be the
insurer of last resort, meaning if you couldn't get coverage elsewhere,
this is you know, here's a backstop for you to
be able to get coverage. But Citizens is a regular
insurance company. They're almost the most pure insurance company because
(35:16):
they're not for profit, so that's as pure as you
can get. They buy reinsurance just like every other insurance company,
so they have all the funds for it. You know,
people say they don't pay claims. That's not the case
in my experience. I had one of my clients who
(35:37):
he was away on vacation, came home and he had
water in his garage and all through his house, and
he called me, and you know, I explained to him
how to go through the process in order to get
to it. They had to to get to the leak,
they had to remove like big granite countertops, and I
think at the end of the day his claim was
paid eighty thousand dollars checked by check by check, completely fine.
(36:01):
You thought it was great. So that's a good positive experience.
I had another lady who I was working with her
yesterday to you know, finalize one of her policies. Turns
out she had a claim on another house and that
was through Citizens, and she just voluntarily I said, hey,
it looks like you have you had a claim back
in twenty twenty two, and she just volunteered. Yeah, they
(36:24):
had that and it was with Citizens, and you know,
they came out and they paid me right away and
gave me all the money I needed. And it's like,
you know what, that's refreshing to hear a positive review
because so many times I talked to people and I say, well,
you know, I sent them a quote and it's Citizens,
and they they're upset. And at the end of the day,
they're just the same insurance company. And really the only
(36:46):
thing that you can't do with Citizens, it's really customized
the policy and had kind of these extra endorsements that
a lot of people don't know about and don't really
care about to begin with. But that's really the only
downfall that I really see with Citizens.
Speaker 2 (37:01):
So you know, that's that's what I've seen with customers
when they've had a foul claim through Citizens, that it's
just like every other insurance company. I didn't really think
about the pureness before, you know the fact that it's
not for profit, so you know, you can't say that
about the other companies, right, So that's really good. So
(37:22):
the bottom line is, UH, with this, don't listen to
the gossip of what your neighbors are saying about Citizens
or what they think about You need to talk to
a pro like Gross to find out what your best
options are. And Citizens sometimes is your best option, and
sometimes you have other options. But don't get prejudiced by
gossip and then make a poor decision for yourself.
Speaker 4 (37:44):
Yeah, I'm not trying to sell Citizens, and hey, everybody
should have Citizens. If you if there's another option, or
you know, a couple of dollars more and you want
to go that route, go that route. But I wouldn't
be I wouldn't be apprehensive about, you know, being with Citizens.
Speaker 2 (38:00):
So let's talk about this for a second, because we
had a good conversation last night, I thought, because we
kind of have a differing view on this, but you're
the professional in the industry that's been doing a long time,
and I'm just an outsider looking from the outside. Inn
But I'm very concerned about the fact that we had
Helene and Milton this year, which were very very strong hurricanes,
(38:21):
which had relatively strong damage. I know, Helene in Florida,
it could have been much worse because where it went
it was a lot of not very well developed area.
If it was a little farther south it would or
a little farther north it could have been much worse.
But it was still a bad storm. And then we
had did I say Milton, I met Helene, and then Helen. Oh,
(38:43):
I did say Helene, okay, and then Milton, you know,
just two weeks later, came back generally the same area
in a way where it started and then created more damage.
And thank god that hurricane wasn't as bad as they
thought it was going to be twelve hours before it landed,
because they thought it could be a four or five,
like actually well four actually hitting the land at as
(39:05):
a four at one point and then it was barely
a three I think when it hit.
Speaker 5 (39:10):
Yeah, and then the storm surge kind of did not
do what it could have done, yes, because it was
sucking water out instead of pushing it in.
Speaker 2 (39:17):
Yeah, I forget depending on where it was. Yeah, I
forget what that terminology was about the water going out,
and I forget what that terminology is.
Speaker 5 (39:25):
But it's the same when it hits and where which
part of the storm are you at, right. If you're
on the top edge, it's pushing that, if you're on
the bottom, it's pulling.
Speaker 2 (39:32):
Yeah, like that. But I felt like if we got
through this year unscathed, that it was really going to
help ease the insurance problems we had because it was
going to give them all a breather. But you know,
now that we had these two big storms, I feel
like that there's no relief for the insurance companies because
they still got to pay for this stuff that's insured
(39:55):
and ross. You had a different opinion on that, and
I think it's a very valid opinion. So I wanted,
you know, to get that out there, and your answer was,
I don't. I wouldn't worry about it because they've already
uh funded for these kind of things there. That's what
their job is.
Speaker 4 (40:12):
Yeah, I mean I don't think you're going to see
what we saw the last four years, right, because that
that had nothing to do with hurricanes. You know, for
hurricanes and catastrophes. The insurance companies underwright for that, they
buy reinsurance for that, so they every year they're planning
(40:32):
on having a hurricane event. We're in Florida, right, and
I think we just kind of got complacent. We've had
a hurricane kind of every year, one or two every
year for the last what five six years, I think, right,
we've had had one maybe, right.
Speaker 5 (40:50):
I know last year the West coast got hit. I'm
thinking about us on the East coast, Florida in general. Yeah,
certainly Florida in general. Yeah, like one or two.
Speaker 2 (40:59):
Yeah, because twenty seventeen was z in. I mean, uh irma, right,
we had Irma in twenty seventeen. I don't know about
twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen.
Speaker 4 (41:08):
We have like a Michael kind of go up and
hit the hands.
Speaker 2 (41:11):
Oh yeah, there was a Michael.
Speaker 4 (41:13):
But you know what if they're underwriting for this, you know,
they're underwriting for storms, they're buying what.
Speaker 2 (41:18):
They do for a living exactly.
Speaker 4 (41:21):
So I think we kind of all got complacent, or
at least we only remember between two thousand and six
and twenty seventeen where we or two thousand and seven
through twenty seventeen where we had no storms. Right, you know,
we got very lucky where there were no hurricanes, and
so everybody kind of just remembers that. Now when we
get one, you know, it's you know, oh my gosh,
(41:43):
hurricanes coming. But prior to that, prior to two thousand
and seven, we've in my recollection, we've always kind of
had one or two that has come in hit Florida,
you know, you know, even growing up and you go, oh,
four h five, you know all those.
Speaker 2 (42:02):
Now that I'm really like listening to what you're saying
right now, I had like a little epiphany here. And
you know what's interesting to me is if it comes
out the way that you're saying, which kind of makes
sense to me. This is what they do for living.
They're prepared for storms. They crunch the actuarial figures to
figure out what they need for that. They have reinsurance
(42:24):
backing them up, overseeing them to make sure that their
numbers are in line with the reinsurance, which tells us
that what dawned on me is that if we really
don't see any kind of dramatic spike hikes because of
these hurricanes, it just shows you how much fraud we
had because we're two and a half times the national
(42:47):
average for insurance. And so if it's not related to
the amount of damage of the storms we're getting and
it's just the fraud, that means our fraud is like
raising our rates by two and a half times compared
to the national average, regardless of the storms. We have
to me that, I mean, I know we've talked about
it a lot about the fraud, but that's just another
(43:09):
way to look at it.
Speaker 4 (43:10):
Yeah, I mean, so if the insurance companies they can
underwrite and plan and act where they what is the
chance of hurricane hitting, what is the chance of the
damage it's going to cause, they can they can underwrite
that risk. What they can't underwrite for is how much
attorneys fees are we going to have to pay out
this year? So they can't you know, there's no way
(43:32):
to predict that. So that's why we saw those rate increases.
That's why we saw those insurance companies go out of business.
It wasn't because of storm damage. It was because of
not being able to underwrite for litigation costs.
Speaker 2 (43:45):
One thing I want to tell people listening to this
part of the show for insurance purposes. Every year you
should double check your insurance policy. Just don't let it
renew with the carrier. The you have get get get
a second quote at least just to find out where
you stand. You might get some pleasant surprises. You might
(44:05):
be very satisfied with what you got right and just
say great, I'm going to stay where I'm at. But
you should check because there are people out there that
can get savings if they're looking for it. Not everybody,
but it doesn't take anything to check. All you got
to do is reach out to us. Basically, give us
your address. We send it to Ross. Ross doesn't even
really you normally have to even call you. He will
(44:27):
if he has questions, but he'll give you a quote
as to what he thinks that he can get. Yeah,
and Ross also made property.
Speaker 5 (44:35):
He could do like apples to apples cover and say, hey, listen,
you're good with what you got, You're not going to
get a better rate. But you could also say rock
but I like I got to get a better rate,
Like I just can't afford my mortgage payment whatever. It's
gone up because of this, So can we do anything?
And Ross, of course will be able to at least
see if there is something you can do, even if
you're adjusting your your coverages.
Speaker 4 (44:54):
Yeah, and if apples to apples my quote is higher,
I will tell you to do the things that I
would do to reduce the premium on my quote, to
do it on yours because it'll be cheaper. It'll be cheaper. Yep.
Speaker 2 (45:06):
That's what we're all about, is just trying to get
you the right answers to get you through the day.
And if we can help you, great, And if there's
another way you can get help that's better, we're going
to tell you that too, because that's the way we're
built here. We're Florida Talk real Estate. We're here to
help you with all your needs. The other thing I
wanted to bring out about was I'm sorry, hold on here.
(45:31):
I wanted to talk just really quickly about you know,
we're going to get into a little bit later about
the mortgage interest rates and how we didn't really get
that big expected decrease right after the FED rate cut,
and we're going to talk to Mike about why that
necessarily didn't happen. But you know, one of the things
(45:53):
I want to impress upon people though right now, it's
still a really great time to be a buyer. Yeah,
you didn't get that big drop and interest rates right
after the FED cut, but you've had a series of
drops throughout early summer all the way till now, and
we're still low compared to even November. We're way low.
(46:16):
We're more than a point low, almost one point three
to five below where we were in November as far
as interest rates. So waiting for interest rates to go
down is kind of an exercise and futility to kind
of gauge what's happening in the market. And so there's
you know, there's many reasons why it's a great time
to be buyer, but I wanted to go over three
(46:37):
reasons why it's a great time to be a buyer
right now, and number one reason to be I'm sorry.
Number one reason for it's a great time to be
a buyer is there are plenty of houses to choose from.
Inventory is up like crazy. There's tons of houses out
there for the buyer. That is choosy. They can pick
fixer uppers, they can pick one pick ones that are
(46:59):
kind of fixed up. They can pick what I call
the super mac Doddy homes. So they are all out
there available for you. And the inventory has increased about
thirty percent in South Florida since a year ago, so
there's plenty of houses to choose from, not a lack
of inventory. Number two reasons why it's a great time
to be a buyer less competition. We did not get
(47:22):
that buyer surge that everybody was expecting after the FED
rate cut because the rates didn't go down. The mortgage
rates did not go down, so there's less competition out there.
It's very rare for you to be in a multiple
bid situation right now. It does happen, but it's very rare.
So most of the time you're competing mono amano with
the seller and trying to decide what is the price
(47:43):
that you'll accept and that they'll take to make the
deal work. So less competition is always better for the buyer.
Reason number three is a great time to be a
buyer right now. The sellers are way more reasonable in
dealing with offers that at one point they would just
push away and be insulted by I just had a
(48:05):
customer recently that got a twenty percent discount off the
original list price to buy the unit. Another one of
our guys he got eight percent off of the list
price when buying the property. A lot of these sellers.
I have sellers right now that would offer two percent
(48:26):
of the total loan value to give back to the
buyer at closing so that they could help pay down
the mortgage rate, the permanent mortgage rate for their thirty
year loan. And I have sellers right now that are
offering that to qualified buyers. So these are three great
reasons why being a buyer right now is much better
(48:47):
than it's been in a very long time. So don't
sit around and cry in your beer because the interest
rates didn't go down as low as you think. That
isn't the only thing to consider when you're going out
home buying. Mike, do you have any other advice about this?
I mean, I like all of those points, Jim.
Speaker 5 (49:06):
I think it's it's it's easy to get caught up
in the oh, it's not a great market, right, It's
not a great market, And so pointing out to people
why there are some reasons why it could be great
for you is really important. So the fact that inventory
is up is like you get like a little bit
of a waterfall for a buyer. So not only can
you shop around and probably find you know, a more
(49:27):
variety of home that might suit your your suit, your needs,
but you can also negotiate a little bit harder, right,
because you might be that only offer right. And that's
all due to fact that there's more inventory out there.
Why is there more inventory?
Speaker 2 (49:41):
Who knows? Right?
Speaker 5 (49:43):
Sentiment in the market, interest rates being high, you know,
insurance being high, But that's okay because you are targeting
a number, right, You're targeting a home, and you're targeting
you know, location, all that stuff. But you're also targeting
a number. And so if you can find it, and
you can and get the seller to give a little
bit like like the ways that you're talking about, right,
(50:04):
maybe on the price, maybe it's the seller credit, right,
you can use that to reduce your interest rate. You
can use that to cover your closing costs, so you
have more for fixing up things if it's a fixer upper, right,
moving expenses.
Speaker 2 (50:17):
So it just it just like.
Speaker 5 (50:21):
For me, it reinforces the fact that you if you're
a buyer for whatever reason, like this isn't a strategic move,
it's not a you know, of course it's a long
term investment. But it's not like I'm buying now because
I got to sell it in six months, I got
to sell it in a year. It's I'm buying now
because it's right for me and my family at this time.
Can we do it right? So if that's you, you
(50:42):
have to kind of get into the game. You got
to get in there, and you got to be able
to go out and find those circumstances where it works.
And I would say that there's more opportunity for that
now than there has been in the past. You know, year,
two years year.
Speaker 2 (51:00):
Inventory has been so low that the sellers had it
over the buyers for so long. So yes, you are
going to pay a little higher interest rate historically, but
historically not really. But over the last couple of years
you're paying a higher interest rate. Over the last fifteen years,
you're paying about what the average interest rate was. We'll
get into that later. But the other thing is is that, yes,
(51:23):
the other bad thing is insurance, right, the insurance is
really a factor and affordability for mortgages right now. But
you because of the lack of demand out there, sellers
are willing to give more incentives. The motivated sellers are
willing to give incentives to the buyer in order to
(51:44):
get the deal done. And you just have to have
to have a sharp agent to help negotiate for you,
but also have the attitude that you're open minded enough
to go out and look, nobody's going to be twisting
your armor, at least not us to go out and
be forced to buy a house. If you get locked.
Speaker 5 (52:02):
Up, you have to write a contract on this show.
Speaker 2 (52:04):
Now, that's not going to happen. But the last two
people I took out. Both of them. I went out
on a Saturday right after the show. Both people on
most two different saturdays. I showed seven properties both times.
Both times they really liked one of the properties. They
turned in an offer, we negotiated. They got way less
(52:25):
than the list price because both houses were on the
market more than one hundred days yep. And we got
good deals and they're both closing. So the thing is
is that the ability to do it is there, and
you don't have to buy something. If they didn't like
any of the seven houses, they saw that day. No
big deal, We'll just find another seven to go look
(52:46):
at and next time we go out.
Speaker 5 (52:49):
And you can also like even before you get to
the hey, we're driving around looking at home stage.
Speaker 2 (52:54):
We have like.
Speaker 5 (52:57):
Window shopping on steroids type of thing. Some people window shopping,
which very easy to do. You can get the apps
on your phone. You can you can be online. You
can look at what's out there, like you get all
that window shopping on steroids is you've talked to gym,
you've set up criteria for what you're looking for. This
could be you know, zip codes, price point, bedrooms, bathrooms,
like all of the boxes you have to check. You
(53:19):
also have been preapproofd for a mortgage and you have
my app which allows you to crunch numbers on any
home that you're looking at. Right, you can plug in
the price, plug in the taxes, like you're gonna get
a very accurate, accurate estimate not only on what the
payment's going to be, but what the cash requirements are
going to be. And you can play around with it
and say, okay, well you know what they want to
(53:40):
sell it for three seventy what if I if we
come into three p fifty right, how's that affecting things?
And you can do this and you could do that
all from your from your office chair, from your couch,
from your bedroom, like whatever it is. And so you
put yourself in a position where you can take advantage
of those tools. And then when you do make that
call to gym, say Jim, look, we've got seven houses.
(54:03):
All of these are potential. They could all work if
we get the right configuration. Let's go look at them right,
And then then then it's like and then if those
seven don't work, fine, reset, do it again, do it
another week down the line, whatever it.
Speaker 2 (54:15):
Is, until you find the one that you love. Yes,
And then then we find out if the Motiva sellers
motivated enough to work with you. Sometimes the seller is
not motivated. You'll turn in an offer that's reasonable, yes,
compared to what everybody else in the neighborhood. But they
still are thinking that it's still twenty nineteen and they're
gonna or twenty twenty, and they're gonna get this crazy
(54:37):
bidding war that isn't going to happen. And a lot
of times I just follow those houses and then every
couple of weeks, Hey, our offer still stands until it
doesn't anymore, and then we start offering less.
Speaker 5 (54:48):
To me, like that type of strategy for saving money
is much much better than the I'm gonna wait for
interest razor drop. It's hey, I found the house. You
know what, they're asking a little too much. Why don't
you calm up, Jim, see if they'll take a number
that works for us, or hey, to see if they'll
give us a credit that we need. And they're like, no, no, no,
(55:08):
it's too we only been on the market eight days. Whatever,
it's too it's too new. We only been on the
market one day. Right, we're doing it open houses. Okay,
so it's not gonna work right now, but guess what,
we can watch it and then wait for two weeks,
three weeks, four weeks.
Speaker 2 (55:21):
In the meantime, you're looking at other stuff.
Speaker 5 (55:23):
But if that one stays on there, then that's where
you can really save money, right because then you know,
wait a second, this is what they wanted. They're coming down.
Let's get let's make this deal happen.
Speaker 2 (55:33):
Absolutely. On the flipside, we're going to take a break
right now. On the flip side, we're gonna do a
little educational bit on Win insurance or hurricane insurance versus
flood insurance and understanding the difference and everything through the
eyes of a great insurance broker, Ross Camerinusrom probably Win
Insurance Juneral Beach. And we're also going to talk about
(55:55):
this community out in that Fort Myers area roughly, I
don't know the exact city, you have to look it up.
Where they've been now through three pretty powerful hurricanes and
nobody even moved from their house or lost electricity and
had no damage in the whole community because this developer
swears that he built this community to withstand her hurricane
(56:18):
force winds up to one hundred and fifty miles an
hour period. Just stay there, don't worry about it, just
hang out. So we're going to take a look at
that community. I thought that was kind of interesting about it.
So on the flip side, we're going to talk about
Batcock branches I think it's called, and also Win insurance
versus flood insurance. Things you got to know.
Speaker 1 (56:53):
This is Florida Talk Real Estate with Jim Depola and
Johnny c. Got a question for the show call us
Live and eighty seven seven ninety seven sixty nine sixty nine, Hey.
Speaker 2 (57:05):
This is Jim Depolo with the Florida Talk Real Estate Show,
your number one information provider about all things real estate
in South Florida. And we've been on now since twenty twelve,
so we've been on twelve years, going on thirteen years now,
giving you the most up to date information about what's
going on in the real estate market from the perspective
(57:26):
of regular people that are looking to buy or sell
or maybe get a second home. We're not a podcast
for realtors learning how to be a better realtor, although
that some people do get tips listen to this. We
know a lot of realtors listen to us. And we're
not really here full time to talk about full time investing,
(57:46):
although we do that off air with a lot of
our customers. We're here just to give you an idea
of what's going on in the real estate market. Is
a buyer's market, seller's market, and how to navigate this
tricky South Florida markets we've been doing for twelve years.
And to help me with all that, we've got Mike
Rau from the mortgage Firm, a direct lender that covers
(58:07):
multiple states. That's right, Good morning, hey, Mike, and we
of course, we got Ross Kamarinus from bright Wing Insurance
Juno Beach office, the only office that we even talk about.
I don't even think there are any other offices then
the Juno Beach office, right, Ross, Well, you can find
them online, but I think it's the international headquarters are
in Juno Beach. Yeah, that's right, the International International International. Yes.
(58:29):
So if you have any questions off here, all you
got to do is reach out to us on our
Florida Talk real Estate page website floridatalkrealestate dot com. And
I want to thank everybody watching the show live on
Facebook and YouTube. I want to let you know that
starting next week, as long as that this show is
(58:50):
recorded fully this week, we are going to start putting
out last week's podcast as a podcast on YouTube as
a full show. And the reason why we're doing that
we know about the audio problems that we've been having
where I call us the Godzilla Japanese TV movie or
Japanese movies where the words don't match the people's lips,
(59:15):
that it's not sync right. We know that happens, and
there's not really a way to fix it. So what
I've decided to do is take the show and create
it into a podcast, and we're going to run that
at starting at eleven o'clock next Saturday, So you're gonna
have this week's show as a full podcast starting at
eleven o'clock when we go off air live on YouTube,
and we're going to do that every week. So if
(59:38):
you're tired of watching us with the Japanese Japanese syncing
on our audio versus video, you could watch the full
show done correctly the following Saturday at eleven o'clock. We're
going to try that. That's really not for the big
fans that are watching live all the time. We really
appreciate you watching live. We love you asking questions and
(01:00:00):
reaching out to us, and we love those fans. But
we're trying to build a podcast audience for the show
that's basically based on YouTube, and that's what that's for.
But it's going to start next Saturday. So if you
subscribe to our YouTube channel, you're going to see a
little premiere announcement that every Saturday at eleven o'clock we
have a new show, so that you understand what's going on. Okay,
(01:00:23):
one of the things I wanted to talk about, and
of course we got Jimithy, the producer. I'm sorry, Timathy,
I'm so sorry about that. You know, if he doesn't
like us, See, all he has to do is hit
a button and we're gone. Right, we're new, So you
got to be nice to Jimothy, whether you like it
or not. And I always like it though. It's awesome.
Speaker 6 (01:00:39):
Sorry, buddy, Yeah, he's holding the button over there.
Speaker 2 (01:00:42):
He's holding the button at the same time as he's
saying it always a silk. I wanted to talk about
this community, this community on the west coast of Florida,
where this developer built a very small community, but he
says that he built it to make it hurricane proof
(01:01:02):
as best he could, where the houses are held to
a standard of one hundred and fifty mile an hour
wins and it can even it even handles storm surge
the way they built these properties, because they're lifted up
in the air. And now they've gone through three major hurricanes.
(01:01:24):
They've been through Ian in twenty twenty two, they've been
through Helene this year, and then two weeks later Milton,
and I know that for Milton and Helen, apparently nobody
in the community left, even though everybody else was being
evacuated from that area. Nobody left their homes, never locked electricity,
(01:01:45):
didn't even lose a tile on any of the roofs.
They had basically no damage in this community. Pretty amazing.
And Ross and I were talking about this off are.
We're like, why don't they just make that the standard
to build everything down here, you know? And it's really
interesting how they build these So they're doing cinder block
for the first floor, and they're still doing wood on
(01:02:07):
the second floor, which I thought was kind of unusual
that they would choose that material. But it's the way
that they're strapping the timbers on the second floor, and
they're actually uses steel trusses on top of it. And
that's one of the reasons why these things are holding
up so well. And the other thing is is the
(01:02:29):
garage is the garage is really the first story of
the home, and the home is really on the second
story the living space, so that garage also helps with
storm surge. I just think that's really really interesting out there.
I'm trying to look at the name of the community,
Bapcock Cranches. Is it called Babcock Branches? Okay? So, and
(01:02:53):
they also set up their houses with solar panels too,
so that even if they did lose quote electric is
that the they're really not going to lose lectures as
long as the solar panels hold. So I just think
that's pretty interesting. I'd like to see new construction in Florida.
Maybe it's happening, I'm not aware of it. Where we
can take the highest standards for this stuff and just
(01:03:15):
start incorporating in the homes, uh, so that as these
storms continue to occur, we have less and less damage
from them. I think would be a really good thing.
Speaker 5 (01:03:26):
I'm sure there's a cost, you know, perspective on it.
Speaker 2 (01:03:30):
Yeah, I think these homes start at like one point
two million, if I'm not mistaken, So you have to
you know, these are million dollars. Yeah, one point two million.
Yet no Lira, Oh, I was gonna say whatever. I
don't know why I popped in. I was gonna say
whatever Laca would say from a taxi. I don't know
why that popped in my head. The name from he
(01:03:50):
had some kind of name for his money over there.
But yeah, so there there are a million bucks or
more for these Oh no, I'm sorry. Yeah, one point
four one point nine million is what these homes are
selling for the other homes in the area, Mike, they're
only selling for about six hundred thousands, so you're you're
paying for this protection.
Speaker 4 (01:04:10):
Yeah. And also, I mean that's brand new construction. Those
homes are big, you know, they're not you know, economy homes.
Speaker 2 (01:04:17):
That's true, that's exactly.
Speaker 4 (01:04:19):
You know, I'm sure that house here would probably be
two and a half three you know, yeah, if it
was down here in this area. Yeah, but you're paying
for you know, hey, man, they got those solar farms
that are there. You don't lose electricity, so that's you know,
that's kind of included in that price, you know.
Speaker 2 (01:04:34):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (01:04:34):
Yeah, the peace of mind of having all that those
amenities to make sure you get through the storms.
Speaker 2 (01:04:39):
So it is an all doom and gloom. And the
other thing I thought was really interesting. I didn't really
know where this community was based, and basically it's surrounded
by water. It's they're on a little finger canal in
the inner coastal one side of it, but the other
side is I don't know a football field of from
(01:05:00):
another canal. But these units, these units are right near
the bay and a bridge, and it's amazing that they've
held up so well compared to all the other houses
in the area after all those storms. So maybe that'll
be the future of building here. Now, Ross I wanted
(01:05:21):
to talk to you because, you know, with Helene. When
Helene first happened, we came out and said on the
show that there was only like three to five billion
dollars in damage for Florida estimated, but ian was twenty
one billion. But then like a week later they said
(01:05:41):
there was one hundred and sixty billion dollars if you
added the flooding, because the three to five billion was
just hurricane damage, but one hundred and sixty billion when
you added flooding in, which tells you a lot of
the damage was flooding from Helene. And a lot of people,
I think don't understand what the differences between wood wind insurance.
(01:06:02):
Do you call it hurricane insurance or wind insurance? It's
called homeowners insurance? Okay, So the difference between homeowner's insurance
and flood insurance. Could you kind of tell us the
differences between those two insurance.
Speaker 4 (01:06:14):
Yeah, So the difference between whether the the coverage will
apply to your homeowner's insurance or flood insurance is how
did that water enter the home. Okay, if during a hurricane,
roof gets ripped off and it rains inside your house,
and now your house is basically a pool with three
feet of water inside of it, that's going to be
(01:06:37):
your homeowner's insurance. Now, if the water enters your home
at the ground level, meaning that it's raining real hard
or a storm surge and the water is pushed into
your home at the ground level, that's going to be
flood insurance, no matter what caused it. If the hurricane
pushed the water from the bay into your house, and
(01:06:59):
the hurricane did that, that's going to be flood insurance.
Now again, if the hurricane ripped off your house and
it rained inside your house, that's homeowners insurance.
Speaker 2 (01:07:09):
That makes sense, And that's I think is the it
does make sense. Thank you about that, And could you
tell me you gave me a couple examples before people
that had flood insurance that didn't and how can affect
their lives. Remember we were talking.
Speaker 4 (01:07:24):
About that so recently during and it was not as
a result of the hurricane, but I guess up in
Jacksonville they had had a lot of rain, and I
guess August and September, I guess we all had a
lot of rain here too, and I got an email saying, hey,
we had some water intrusion and the water you know
(01:07:46):
the damage it caused. And I kind of responded got
back and said, what, hey, what do you mean by
water intrusion? And they told me that the way that
the backyard is angled when it was raining, there was
a that diverted the water and it diverted the water
inside the house. And you know, unfortunately that is flood
(01:08:08):
insurance because that water entered the house at the ground level,
so there would be no coverage that applied. Unfortunately. However,
that happened to one of my clients probably eight years ago.
He called me and said, hey, my neighbor did something
to his fence and the way that he did it.
The next time we had this big rain, it diverted
(01:08:28):
the water into my house. And I remember when he
was telling me that as I'm pulling up his policy
information in our client management system, please, and we had
a flood insurance policy for him, and that's the policy
that responded and paid all the damages. It would not
have been covered under his homeowner's insurance. So it's important
to understand that where that water originates from is what
(01:08:52):
is covered. Also, I got at when when you get
a new policy, you get a declarations page that shows
all your coverages, and tipic on one of the last pages,
in big letters, it says this does not include flood
insurance or this does not cover floods. And I get
a lot of people that call me and say, hey,
so I my how water heater explodes. I don't have
any coverage, And I kind of go through that same explanation. Okay, hey,
(01:09:15):
where does the water come from. If the water originates
from above that or inside your home at like a
pipe or hot water heater exploding, toilet overflow, that's going
to be covered under your homeowner's insurance. But if the
water enters your home from the outside of the ground level,
that's going to be flood.
Speaker 2 (01:09:33):
That's where I think people get very confused. Is the
point that you made a little bit ago where you said,
even though the hurricane might have created the storm searge
and that water was pushed in because of the hurricane,
if there wasn't a hurricane, we wouldn't have the storm search.
It's still considered flood damage, even though the hurricane is
the one that pushed the water there. Yes, so if
(01:09:54):
you don't have flood insurance, your hurricane policy is not
going to cover that. That's where I think people get
really used correct. It's like, well, it's part of the hurricane, right,
and it's like, yeah, the hurricane, but it's water that
came in from the ground up, so that's considered flood anyway.
And that's the way it works. So it's really important
that people understand that because there's a lot of people
(01:10:14):
that are going to be really learning that hard lesson
now or learning that lesson now where they're going to
be like the poor guy that you just mentioned that
didn't have the flood coverage and he had to pull
the money out of his pocket for that. The one
thing I wanted to ask you also about this is
if you not require to get flood insurance, if you're
(01:10:34):
not required to get it like mandatory, is it still
pretty expensive inexpensive to get a flood policy.
Speaker 4 (01:10:43):
Yeah. Yeah, you know you're probably like five years ago.
It used to be standard rates. You know, if you
wanted this amount of coverage, this is how much it cost,
and there was about five or six different options. Now
they underwrite it more like a homeowner's insurance based on
location and things like that. But I'm still seeing anywhere,
you know, on average, probably five to seven hundred dollars
(01:11:05):
per year for flood insurance if you're not in a
high risk now.
Speaker 2 (01:11:09):
So like two bucks a day basically, Yeah, yep, and yeah,
so that that's not a bad thing. I remember when
I lived over in Wellington, we had a canal in
our backyard. I didn't really think it would ever overflow
or anything, but I just went ahead and paid for
the flood insurance anyway, just in case, because if it
happens and you don't have it, you wish you did.
(01:11:31):
And back then it was even less expensive than it
is now, because that was five or six years ago.
Speaker 4 (01:11:35):
Yeah, I think those preferred rates were like four dollars.
Speaker 2 (01:11:40):
Yeah, yeah, that's what I remember, almost like a dollar
a day roughly. And Mike, do you have flood insurance
or anything on your house because you're out in the
acre jura so you're not worried about it?
Speaker 5 (01:11:50):
Yeah, well, I mean I'm slightly worried about it, but
you know, our homes are our homes are out there,
they're built elevated a little bit. So I'm at least
you know, I don't know eight fet just above like
where my.
Speaker 2 (01:12:03):
Yeah, actually thinking about it, when you come to your
house and it rains or your whole driveway is you know,
a puddle is a gigantic puddle.
Speaker 5 (01:12:11):
Well, the driveway was the owner prior, there's somebody before
I owned it put that driveway in. It's more like
a landing pad for the cars. And they put it
they put it in below everything else, like lower. So
I don't know who poured that concrete or like who
did that job, but it's like if you're pouring, you're
making a concrete pad, you should elevate it, right. It
should be above the rest of the yard, not below
(01:12:33):
it type of thing. So yeah, that does get flooded.
But and my yard gets puddles in it, especially during
the summer when we have like heavy rains every day.
But my house is up high from that, you know,
probably six seven eight feet above the yard in general.
Speaker 2 (01:12:45):
So hey, I want to backtrack for a second because
I didn't see this until just a second ago. Jack,
who's a fan watching on YouTube and thank you so much,
he said that we're not talking about Babcock Ranch, which
is very for inland It's funny. He just said, that's
like fifty miles inland, which is what I thought. It's
actually Cortez is the name of the community, Cortez, So
(01:13:07):
I apologize for that. The price ranges are you know
right where Jack was saying. He says one point eight
million for the home. I said one point four to
one point nine. But I had the wrong community. It's Cortes.
So I apologizet the hurricane proof on the hurricane proof
community Badcock.
Speaker 4 (01:13:24):
Ranches that hurricane proof.
Speaker 2 (01:13:26):
Yeah, But the one he's right, the one, the one
I read about CNN. It's point home Hunters point Homes
in Cortes, Florida.
Speaker 5 (01:13:35):
That's they're all built up. Are the garages.
Speaker 2 (01:13:37):
Yeah, with the garage and the solar panels and everything.
Now I think bob Cock Ranches also has hurricane proof
homes out there.
Speaker 4 (01:13:46):
That's the one that got like the big attention is.
Speaker 2 (01:13:48):
At one point. Yeah, but Cortes is much closer to
the water, and it's and it's kind of been through
these hurricanes and that's why everybody was talking about it.
And Jack said, last thing Jack said, and Nick is
saying the same thing. Nick also was saying, Hey, you
got He's on Facebook and he's saying, Hey, you got
the community's wrong, So sorry about that, guys, You're right,
(01:14:08):
it's quartet. But Jack also left off saying I'm not
getting flood insurance. I made sure I'm nowhere near the
possibility of getting flood water. But just so you know, Jack,
listen to the story that Ross just said. You could
be in the middle of nowhere and if your neighbor
diverts the water from the property and it rains really
hard and that water ends up coming into your house,
(01:14:30):
that's flood insurance, right Ross, It doesn't matter.
Speaker 4 (01:14:33):
Yeah, and I think I've read somewhere where like forty
percent of the flood the areas or the people that
had flood damage weren't required to have.
Speaker 2 (01:14:43):
It, right exactly, they're not in a high risk flood zone,
but they got damage from it. So that's why it's important.
You know, I'm not telling everybody you get flood insurance,
but it's something that you really should consider because if
you're tied on money, seven hundred dollars a years is
definitely worth it if you do have a problem. And
(01:15:06):
so anyway, I just thought that was really interesting because
I don't own a house right this second mic, Have
you seen your insurance policies go up dramatically over the
last couple of years or no, you.
Speaker 5 (01:15:19):
Have, I say, said the same thing everyone else has,
and I kind of like, basically just make the decision
to lower my coverage as much as possible, just to
keep the premium in line. Just I got high deductibles.
But I'm also like mentally prepared to do work work,
like I could have damage and not even have an
(01:15:39):
insurance clean type of thing.
Speaker 2 (01:15:41):
I totally get it because the wood I used to
have a wood frame home too, so stuff happened, you
could put on a belt and take.
Speaker 5 (01:15:46):
It even if you know, probably if like one of
my big pine trees fell on my roof or something,
I'd have a problem. But most of the stuff I'm comfortable. Well,
you know, whatever take risks you you wait the pros
and the cons.
Speaker 2 (01:16:03):
Yeah, I guess if I want a really good table, right,
if you need to make up the money.
Speaker 5 (01:16:07):
If I wanted really good insurance, it would be like way.
Speaker 2 (01:16:11):
Expensive, way too much. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (01:16:13):
Yeah, it was based on the age of my home.
It's frame, it's in the acreage.
Speaker 4 (01:16:16):
Yeah, I mean when I the homeowner's insurance was at
about thirty five hundred four years ago in my house notes, right, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 5 (01:16:29):
And you're an inside guy, like you get the discount
of drink.
Speaker 2 (01:16:33):
You know what you're doing. You know what you're doing, right.
Speaker 4 (01:16:35):
Yeah, whole time. Yeah, yeah, I wish that'd be nice.
Speaker 2 (01:16:39):
Hey, we're all in it.
Speaker 4 (01:16:41):
We're all getting those huge rate increases.
Speaker 2 (01:16:43):
Let's take the last part of this, uh, this segment
of the show, and let's talk about something that's near
and dear to my heart is why are the interest
rates going up? They haven't stopped. They just keep going
up and up and up. And you know what, some
of the economists are saying that they're going to continue
to go up through the end of the year. So, uh,
(01:17:03):
just to set and I'm gonna ask Mike, why do
you think the interest rates are going up? Because you're
the mortgage guy, so you're responsible for all the interest rates.
All your fault. It's all your fault, like my resonsibility.
Let me just set the scene here about why are
mortgage rates going up? Okay, so before the Fed cut
the rate, we were at six point oh nine percent.
This is all Freddy mac figures, right, and what everybody expected.
(01:17:26):
Once the Fed cut the interest rate for the Fed
Reserve rate, and they cut it a half a percent,
everybody was celebrating because they thought it was going to
be a huge reduction in mortgage rates. But that isn't
what happened. The week after the Fed cut the rate,
we went from six point oh nine to six point
oh eight, which is basically flat. And then after that
(01:17:47):
we went up to six ' three to two, and
then this Freddie Mac report that came out this Thursday,
we're already up to six point four to four and
Freddy Mac is predicting we're gonna be hitting six fives
before we start seeing any kind of a drop. So, Mike,
I got to ask you, why do you think the
(01:18:08):
mortgage rates are going up right now?
Speaker 5 (01:18:11):
So I guess there's probably like three things, Jim that
I could think of, and it kind of goes back to, well,
did they go down at all? And the answer to
that is yes, they did go down leading up to
the FED decision, So mortgage rates were going you know,
the two months leading up to that September I forget
what day was the September meeting.
Speaker 2 (01:18:30):
I think sixteen to three something.
Speaker 5 (01:18:32):
Rates had gone down about half a point in that
two month period, right right, about a half a point.
So we went from like six and a half down,
you know, or six something down to six ish, right,
And that was because the mortgage industry, or the investment world,
the bond industry was was predicting what the FED was
going to do, and so we did see rates drop.
(01:18:53):
We did see the FED rate drop, I mean the
mortgage rate drop, but it was leading up to the decision,
and then once the decision was made, it was like, ok, okay,
we we got it. So it was basically baked in
to the thing. So that's the first thing. There was
a drop leading up to the FED decision. I think
the second thing is and when I'm going to say
half a point, well, the FED dropped at half a point.
That might have been a little bit of a an
(01:19:16):
overshoot by the FED, right, So they came down they're like, hey,
we we we love where inflation's at.
Speaker 2 (01:19:22):
Right now.
Speaker 5 (01:19:24):
It's tard you know, we're predicting inflations doing what we want.
But now we're getting some ripple, you know, some what
am I trying to say, like worry whisper, whisper? Yeah,
about the jobs market. Right, So unemployment, like we is
a job is the unemployment is job market weakening, and
that's going to be a problem. So they did a
half you know, let's just take those two those two
(01:19:46):
points inflation where we're at. But we we we're a
little bit worried about jobs. We need to make a
big splash here. So half a point rate reduction, right,
which kind of lined up with what mores rates are doing.
But then what happened? A jobs report came out, right,
this is the third thing, so then the jobs are
to come out and was stronger then what the whispers were,
(01:20:06):
what the rumors were, what their predictions.
Speaker 2 (01:20:08):
Were, so right, show the job market wasn't getting the
job reports weren't getting weaker, They're actually getting stronger.
Speaker 5 (01:20:17):
Yeah, economy is still cooking. Economy is cooking. What's going
to happen? We just dropped interest rates, Okay, spending's going
to go up, like you're going to see inflation start
to creep back up because of that. Right, So now
all of a sudden, what's the mortg what's the investment
world doing? They're saying, well, wait a second, what's the
FED going to do?
Speaker 4 (01:20:33):
Now?
Speaker 5 (01:20:34):
Those it's fed gonna bump it back up? Did they
move it too much? So there's a little bit of
this like what's going to happen type thing. I mean,
if you're saying mortgage rates are predicting what the Fed's
going to do, I don't think you can use that
as a general, you know, barometer for what you're going
to do. But if anything, if you see mortgage rates
going up, some people might say, well, the Fed's going
to bump the rate back up quarter Now. I don't
(01:20:54):
think anybody is seriously expecting that or predicting that. If anything,
they're predicting still more more through the end of the year.
But you know, so those are the reasons, and I
think the one maybe the over the over the overall
thought process should be that mortgage rates are not tied
to what the FED is doing. Right, we follow the
trend right over the long term. You stack like lifetime
(01:21:18):
FED chart over lifetime mortgage backed security chart, and you're
going to see the movements the same. Not exactly right.
There's gonna be variation, you know, day to day, month
to month, but mortgage rates will move based on the
ten year treasury Like watch that chart, that's the one
you should be looking answered what's happening today, what's happening
tomorrow or yesterday? What happened this week? And the Treasury
(01:21:42):
is you know, it's an investment thing.
Speaker 2 (01:21:45):
And the reason why we talk about this stuff I
you know, some people might think this is kind of
wonky stuff, but it has real effects in real life
for people. Because the interest rates did not drop the
that people expected to, which was we would get more
interest rate drops for the mortgages after the Fed cut
(01:22:07):
the rate. That's what people are expecting. So based on that,
there were a lot of people expecting a surge of
buyers to come into the market. That didn't happen. We
didn't have the search. In fact, we're down this week
seventeen percent year over year for applications for you know,
new purchases, so we're not seeing that buyer search. Now
(01:22:29):
that affects more than just the buyers. We have less
chances for refis because a lot of people were thinking
that even though that we had that half a point
drop before the Fed rate Fed rate cut in interest rates,
people were expecting more after the Fed rate and they
thought that would turn them into potential REFI candidates. But
(01:22:52):
a lot of REFI candidates that were hopeful they were
going to get a refi. The numbers just don't work
yet there's still not enough a drop in the interest rates.
And then the third thing that it affects, so it
affects people looking for a refi, affects the buyers not
having the search, but it also affects sellers because now
we have less people to buy the houses that are
already around the market, and we're already seeing days on
(01:23:14):
market increasing. We're starting to see real price depreciation, meaning
significant price drops happening communities. And until we get those
deeper interest rates cuts, this is kind of where the
market's going to be. We're going to have more of
(01:23:35):
a buyer's market than a seller's market. It's not super
strong either way, but it is definitely leaning in the
direction of a buyer's market than a seller's market. And
we're going to have sellers that are pickier, and we're
going to have less of them coming in saying raising
their hand and saying it's time for me to buy
a house, even though I'm telling everybody it's time for
you to buy a house if you can afford one,
(01:23:56):
because you're going to get a good deal, probably a
better deal than went waiting for the interest rates later.
But this is really interesting stuff because of how much
the media pushed that the FED rec FED rate cut
was definitely going to translate into immediate mortgage rate cuts,
and that didn't happen and everybody was surprised about it.
(01:24:19):
But that isn't to say that we won't get rate
cuts in the future even if the Fed doesn't cut
the rate, because that's the last thing I want to
leave off on. We had from May seven point two
to two percent was our Freddie mac in May, and
we went all the way down to six h nine
without any FED rate cuts right, just organically because the
(01:24:44):
mortgage rates are tied to the ten year bill, which
is looking for long term economic outlook.
Speaker 5 (01:24:50):
So let me let me one last thing too, Jim.
If you're a buyer, and this kind of goes to
what we talked about earlier, If your buyer waiting for
interest rates to go down, guess who else is waiting
for interest rates to go down? Sellers why? Because they
know that buyers are going to be coming out, and
when there's more buyers out, it's more competitive. They're going
to have multiple offers on their home. So it's like,
you know, like it just reinforces the fact that that's
(01:25:15):
not the number one critical factor. Interest rates should not
be the number one designing factor for what you're doing.
Speaker 2 (01:25:20):
Absolutely, we're gonna go ahead and take a break. And
on the flip side, I want to do something fun.
There was a really good article where talk to a
bunch of different kind of industry leaders and now association
a real national association of realtors, economists, and other industry
leaders to predict what's going to happen to interest rates
(01:25:40):
in twenty twenty five. We're going to take a look
at that. On the flip side, This is.
Speaker 1 (01:25:58):
Florida Talk real Estate with Jim Depola and Johnny c.
Got a question for the show. Call us live at
one eight seven seven sixty nine sixty nine.
Speaker 2 (01:26:09):
That's right, this is Florida Talk real Estate. You're number
one news provider all things real estate in South Florida.
And uh, we're going to continue on with our show today.
We're going to start talking about what's going to happen
with mortgage rates once twenty twenty five starts. Because everybody
was a little disappointed that we didn't get a dramatic
(01:26:32):
rate cut for interest rates after the FED cut. But
Mike in the last section just to explain to us
why that happened. And if you want to check it out,
you have to go back to our reruns and check
it out later after the show. Jim, can you fix
your camera real quick? Sorry? Who pointing up at this guy?
Who mean your camera?
Speaker 4 (01:26:50):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (01:26:50):
Oh, I guess that would help. There you go, There
you go, thank you, thank.
Speaker 3 (01:26:54):
You, pretty mug.
Speaker 2 (01:26:55):
Yeah, there you go. Care ladies, face face, Oh I
got the face radio guys, I'm telling you so. I
wanted to go over what I thought. It was kind
of interesting as to oh my gosh, you know what. Hey,
why don't you guys chit chat for a second when
I find something? I'm missing something here, which is really
(01:27:18):
the predictions. Yeah, I gotta get the predictions because they
were up here and now they're gone. So hold on here.
Speaker 4 (01:27:23):
Who's gonna gonna do anything for October Fest? I usually
don't do it this weekend?
Speaker 5 (01:27:29):
Right, what's happening? What's what's where's the uh? Where's the
place to be?
Speaker 2 (01:27:33):
Is the German and American Social Club?
Speaker 5 (01:27:35):
Okay, I think it's I think it's like, yeah, they
do like a big that.
Speaker 4 (01:27:44):
You know, they get Biener schnitzel. You know what.
Speaker 5 (01:27:49):
I got a buddy I think who traditionally would go
up there. I don't know if he's done it in
a few years, but I'm gonna ask him. I have
a you know, one of our volleyball players.
Speaker 4 (01:27:57):
He's actually German from the Mud, their land, the father
the fathers on.
Speaker 6 (01:28:05):
I'm used to call it the motherland when you refer
to another country, but that way.
Speaker 5 (01:28:10):
Yeah, I think it was maybe you know what I
might be into, entering into territory I shouldn't be. You know,
maybe the Fatherland was you know during the forties, thirties
and forties thing.
Speaker 4 (01:28:21):
Yeah, but he's always he goes, he and promotes it
for us and try to encourage everybody to go. It
looks fun. I know they have. I know that some
of my staff has gone in the past and participated
in some of the games and things they do.
Speaker 3 (01:28:37):
Okay, think like you know, throwing logs.
Speaker 4 (01:28:41):
You know, I haven't been, but I'm pretty sure just
revolves around drinking beer.
Speaker 3 (01:28:46):
Drinking beer.
Speaker 5 (01:28:47):
Yeah, how good you are at that? How long can
you hold up the beer mug?
Speaker 3 (01:28:51):
All right, there's in front of him? How many how
many beer monks can you carry one time?
Speaker 2 (01:28:55):
I've seen those those beer.
Speaker 5 (01:28:58):
Maidens of some yeah beer ads, I've seen them carry
a lot, Like, yeah, that's crazy.
Speaker 2 (01:29:07):
So, Mike, have you ever gone there? Have you ever
gone to the Lantana American German.
Speaker 5 (01:29:11):
I feel like I've been there, but not during Octoberfest.
I feel like I've been to a spot where I
got some German fair, like your traditional German fair, but
it wasn't during the actual event.
Speaker 2 (01:29:22):
You should go and check out. I think you and
Tiffany have a really time.
Speaker 5 (01:29:25):
I'm German too, well, at least my name is German, right, Yeah?
Is German derivation from way back actually means to smoke, right, So, like,
there's a beer called Rauch beer, just smoked beer.
Speaker 2 (01:29:37):
Yeah you can. Why do you say Rauch so I don't?
I say raw? Oh yeah, that's row. Do you say Rau? So?
Speaker 5 (01:29:46):
That's that's one of my u You know that my
my fathers decided to call it row instead of.
Speaker 3 (01:29:54):
Americanized.
Speaker 5 (01:29:56):
I don't, Yeah, I don't. I don't have a good
answer for that. I just know that that my last name,
you know, for my grandfather's grandfather. You know that's what
I learned.
Speaker 2 (01:30:06):
Yeah, I I you know, I pronounced it to polo.
But I guess the Italian real way is da paula.
Paula is yeah, no p a oh is supposed to
be pow Paola, yeah pow Yeah. So when I was
I got I got so tired when I had my
(01:30:29):
byline in the newspapers that everybody but but my name
so much. Then I went when I went to the
Palm Beach Post, I took the first A out of
my name, so it was d I p o l
A Polo topolo so people would pronounce my name right.
So I had my name. My byline in there was
to Polo, to Polo Polo. Then I moved over to
(01:30:52):
the Sentinel, and the Sentinel would not let me use
that name they needed. They demanded I use my real name.
I don't know you can use a pseudonym, and no,
they weren't allowed, right, So I had to put my
real name in there. So I put my real name
in and I was there for a couple of months
and one of the editors for the Post called me
(01:31:13):
up to say, hey, do you know that your name
is being spelled in the paper wrong? Every day, and
I'm like, well, not really technically, technically, you guys have
to spelled it correctly. It's kind of funny, Listen could
be worse. Well, your last name could be. I don't
know why I had such a hard when when Ross
(01:31:36):
came onto the show. I had such a hard time saying, Kamarinetts,
you're not the first month and I know and he
used to say it. I don't know why you think
it's so difficult.
Speaker 4 (01:31:45):
I don't know the way the way I said, but
how do you pronounce that? I go, I mean, it's
phonetically correct, right, it's just daunting to look at it.
Speaker 2 (01:31:54):
Really isn't that bad, though.
Speaker 5 (01:31:57):
Problematic because Camarainets or Kamarinets, but.
Speaker 4 (01:32:00):
People have always had cale Martinez.
Speaker 5 (01:32:02):
Oh you know, I get that, mart Yeah, Ross found
it out.
Speaker 6 (01:32:08):
It's one of those words, or in this particular case,
it's a name where you're better off hearing it and
then just going by that rather than trying to read it.
And even though you're right, it is fairly phonetically spelled out.
Speaker 4 (01:32:21):
Correct, there's nothing. There's no like silent.
Speaker 5 (01:32:24):
Okay, if it's phonetically accurate, go ahead, spell it.
Speaker 2 (01:32:34):
Wait a second Okay.
Speaker 4 (01:32:35):
That's why I just always went by Rosskak.
Speaker 2 (01:32:37):
Yeah. So we're gonna do this one. We're going to
do mortgage rate predictions for twenty twenty five. And the
article I read they interviewed people from the NASTY National
Association of Realtors, Economists and Bankers, people in the banking
industry as to what they think the interest rates will
(01:32:59):
be by the end of this year and then every
quarter in twenty twenty five. I found it to be
very interesting and buyers should be listening to this very carefully,
associate sellers. So right now, we're at six point four
to four Freddie macrate right now, six point four to
four percent for a thirty year loan. So where do
(01:33:19):
you think that the where do you think the predictions
are landing for the end of this quarter, the end
of twenty twenty four. Where do you think they think
interest rates will be by the time that by December
thirty first.
Speaker 5 (01:33:36):
So we're predicting what they're predicting are our own predictions?
Speaker 2 (01:33:39):
Now we're no, you're predicting. Okay, so let me start
this over. We're going to do mortgage rate predictions twenty
twenty five. So the end of the twenty twenty four quarter,
the fourth quarter for twenty twenty four, what do you
think the economists, the bankers, and the National Association Realtors
believe the interest will be by the end of this year?
Speaker 5 (01:34:01):
Six percent?
Speaker 2 (01:34:02):
What do you think I'd say? Six one six two? Okay,
And what do you think.
Speaker 3 (01:34:06):
I'm right there, like six to one six one, yeah.
Speaker 2 (01:34:08):
Uh, six point five percent. They think it's gonna be
a little higher than where we are right now. They
think it's going to stay pretty much where we are
right now, creep up a little bit by the end
of the year. Okay. So now, what do you think
the mortgage rate prediction for quarter one in twenty twenty
five will be based on these What do you think
they're predicting for the first quarter of twenty twenty five?
(01:34:30):
Mike six point twenty five, six point two five. I'm
gonna hold that up saying six point one six two, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (01:34:36):
I think that's the whole way through.
Speaker 2 (01:34:38):
Okay.
Speaker 6 (01:34:38):
Well, if they're predicting six point five, then again, maybe
five six six, maybe another slate increase.
Speaker 2 (01:34:45):
Okay, So they're thinking that we might get to six
point twenty five. Mike wins ding ding ding Uh. They're
so they're looking for they're thinking it's going to go
slightly down a quarter point down roughly for the first quarter. Now,
what what do you think the mortgage rate predictions for
quarter two and twenty twenty five will be, Mike.
Speaker 5 (01:35:05):
Six point two five six one six two yeah, six one.
Speaker 2 (01:35:10):
Six one okay six five six one six one the
uh they think that the rate will get down to
just about six percent is where they think it's gonna
get Okay, Uh, mortgage rate prediction for quarter three twenty
twenty three. I'm gonna start with ross six six, yeah, six.
Speaker 5 (01:35:33):
What do you think I think six point two five.
Speaker 2 (01:35:37):
Six point two five uh six is ding ding ding? Okay?
And then quarter four and twenty twenty five last quarter okay,
this last quiz part three percent five point seventy five okay,
five eight five point five to five point seven five?
Speaker 4 (01:35:58):
Wow?
Speaker 2 (01:35:58):
So why this is so listen to this. Yes, that's
what was surprising to me last quarter. So they're thinking
a year from now we might be down three quarters
of a point. That's it. That's it, guys.
Speaker 4 (01:36:10):
Thing.
Speaker 2 (01:36:11):
So this is the thing. This is what I'm trying
to tell sellers and buyers right now. The horizon for
interest rates. There is nothing on the horizon that thinks
you're going to get into even low fives, right, and
I'm waiting for three. Yeah, and so how old are you?
I'm joking, right, because you're gonna have to like double
your age.
Speaker 5 (01:36:31):
Can again, Okay, at the end of the year, they
said six.
Speaker 2 (01:36:34):
And a half. They think about six and a half
by the end of the year, right, And then the
first quarter we might go down to six point twenty five,
And then the next two quarters were going to be
between six and five seven five maybe, and then the
last quarter maybe five and a half, but five and
(01:36:55):
a half to five seven five. And here's the interesting thing.
The economists, the banker, and the National Association of Rilters,
all three of their predictions for each quarter were very
close to each other. There wasn't a wide divergence in
what they thought. So that's even to me even more
surprising that we didn't have any outliers where somebody thought, oh,
(01:37:17):
we're going to get to five and another person's thinks
we got to seven. Uh uh. Everybody was really tight.
So they're thinking that this is the interest rate that
we're going to be living with for quite some time,
and so what does that mean? Historically? The interest rates
we're having right now are pretty much average interest rates
(01:37:39):
over the last thirty years. And anybody waiting for that
four nine nine number, I'm not going to ever tell
you it's not going to happen, but betting on that
it's going to happen, Hey, go to Vegas and bet
it all on black, because you'll probably have a better
chance of picking that number, you know, picking red or
black versus four nine nine.
Speaker 4 (01:38:02):
Yeah, you could put your down payment on that on
black and win, and then now you can buy double
the house.
Speaker 2 (01:38:08):
Yeah, that's one way mortgage. And then if you lose
borrow less, if you lose what meant to be Yeah, Carbie, you.
Speaker 5 (01:38:18):
Know what's funny Jim about that? That's that trend there.
Speaker 2 (01:38:21):
Yeah, it's all down. They didn't predict a single up
tech out the year they did.
Speaker 5 (01:38:26):
What was the last year where we didn't have a
single up. Well, they're also doing per quarter, so I'm
not sure exactly what that means, like the average for
the quarter or the end at the end of the quarter.
So I don't really know what it means. But if
they're saying that rates won't go at any point during
the year. They're not going to be higher one month
compared to the year the month behind it. I always
say flat out they're going to be wrong about that, right,
(01:38:47):
I mean, just that's the way the mortgages.
Speaker 2 (01:38:49):
Just going up and down. Yeah, but there could be
a trend of either continuing to go down true, true,
or a trend to continue to.
Speaker 5 (01:38:56):
Get drawn a straight line on the chart, which waves
is gone. They're saying that's going down. Not huge, right,
not big movement, but they're going from six and a
half down.
Speaker 2 (01:39:04):
To five seven maybe a year five, right, I mean
we've seen that this year.
Speaker 5 (01:39:10):
You seen that, Yes, yes, we because we had a
crazy that's what they have. Not called for a spike
that allows for a point of downward movement. They're basically
saying the spike is now the end of the year
six and a half.
Speaker 2 (01:39:24):
Yeah, they think that this is going to be the
higher highest interest rates in the next year, but it's
only going to go down maybe three quarters of a
point roughly.
Speaker 4 (01:39:32):
So that's done your conversation. Twenty twenty six. We should
be seeing our fours, our threes and fours then, because
definitely wait for the two.
Speaker 5 (01:39:40):
Yes, does that tell you anything about what they're predicting
for the election, because I feel like, is the election.
Is the results of the election important for what's going
to happen with interest rates in the coming year.
Speaker 2 (01:39:54):
The article didn't bring it up at all, so I
can't tell you was the factor or not. But they
didn't bring up the election at all. What they did
say is that they felt that inflation is going to
continue to cool and the job market is going to
But they they definitely all are believing in the soft landing,
(01:40:15):
that whole soft landing thing that we've heard over and
over again. They all bought into the soft landing. They
think we are not going into a recession. They don't
think a recession is on the horizon for next year, right,
They don't think that that's happening.
Speaker 5 (01:40:28):
They might be saying it doesn't matter who wins the presidency,
the economy is mostly independent from that.
Speaker 2 (01:40:37):
Historically, from this show, because we started in twenty twelve, right,
So we had an election right before we started the
show in twenty twenty twelve, right, And we've had four
elections since we've been on the show. If I'm not mistaken,
this is the fourth election presidential election. I have never
(01:40:58):
seen in any of these elections, and some of them
were very controversial elections, like this time where people were
very red or blue and they were like, you know,
don't probbly my color from you can pribe my color
from my cold dead fingers, right, like of which that
I'm going to be on. Yeah, So it's been very emotional.
Several times in those elections. Everybody said the same thing,
(01:41:20):
I want to wait to do something until after the election.
Nothing happened after the election. It didn't matter who got elected,
and we had some surprise elections in there where people
thought one person was going to be elected to not
and it still didn't affect real estate market. You know
what affected real estate market, COVID. You know what real
affected real estate market, increasing insurance rates because of fraud. Right,
(01:41:43):
That affected real estate market.
Speaker 4 (01:41:45):
Right.
Speaker 2 (01:41:46):
You know what else affected real estate market? Inventory? Inventory
affects real estate market lending practices, right.
Speaker 6 (01:41:53):
Well, I would go back to like TEA, catastrophic events
like that, and you know.
Speaker 3 (01:41:58):
COVID being another big one, to.
Speaker 2 (01:42:00):
Regulation, right or regulation so but but those things are
not really related specifically to the president. To the president,
and especially right after the election, it might. It might.
There might be an effect from a presidential decision on something,
but it usually has to percolate for a while and
you see the results later in that year. You're not
(01:42:22):
going to have an election in November and January. Something
amazing is going to happen, good or bad in the
real estate market. It's just that isn't the way that
the state market's built.
Speaker 5 (01:42:33):
You know, if we say the big mover is the FED,
which it is, right, We've talked about how it's not
tied directly whatever, but it is a big mover and
you can you can watch that trend. And the FED
is supposed to be independent from you know, from the
party in power.
Speaker 2 (01:42:48):
Yeah, and one of the things I supposed to be.
I'm a big believer of checks and bounces on everything
related to government. You have to have checks and bounces.
No side can get stronger than the other side the
other for a long period of time. Yes, So you
have to have checks and bounces. And having that FED
is an independent body, I think is really really important
(01:43:11):
because it's too easy on the political side to say, hey,
I want lower interest rates so I can get elected, right,
or I want this and I want to do that
without worrying about the long term effects of dropping the
interest rates heating up inflation, things like that. I mean
this halfpoint cut the Fed did, people are really worrying
(01:43:32):
that that it's going to cause what we were talking
about a couple of weeks ago on the show reinflation.
You know, we've talked about inflation, deflation, stagflation. Now the
new term is reinflation. Are we gonna create such a
frenzy by dropping interest rates and everything that people start
spending too much in go nuts again and affect the
(01:43:55):
economy that way and heat it up?
Speaker 5 (01:43:56):
If the cost of borrowing gets less' going to borrow?
Speaker 2 (01:44:00):
People going to borrow?
Speaker 5 (01:44:02):
What do you do with borrow money? Ross spend it spend?
Speaker 2 (01:44:06):
Well?
Speaker 6 (01:44:06):
That kind of goes along to the question that I
had too, What about our national debt and compared to
that FED rate, how much does that affect whether or
not the Fed wants to drop because obviously the higher
the interest rate, the quicker our debt accumulates.
Speaker 2 (01:44:21):
Absolutely, Jimothy, I totally agree with that because I read
a wonky article six months ago talking about that that
they might drop The Fed might drop the rate, not
because they're worried about inflation or the job market. They
might do it just to reduce the national government's debt
monthly debt to pay that what is it, thirty two
(01:44:44):
trillion dollars that we owe or whatever?
Speaker 3 (01:44:46):
Thirty five now, yeah, or like one trillion every four months.
Speaker 2 (01:44:50):
Crazy, it's crazy, It's insane. So there is a theory
that they might do it for that reason, which isn't
a healthy reason to do it. It's just like the
political for reason of dropping the interest rates to get elected.
If you're dropping the FED rate just because the Fed
can't we can't afford to pay our monthly debt service,
(01:45:12):
that's a big problem, right, that that would be a
big problem.
Speaker 5 (01:45:15):
So the federal government is on adjustable rate borrowing, right,
adjustable rate mortgages.
Speaker 2 (01:45:24):
Right, Actually, it kind of is adjustable rate, right, it
is kind of So that could be a factor later on.
Speaker 5 (01:45:31):
We should think about getting them into a fixed rate.
Speaker 2 (01:45:33):
Yeah, is it is it time, Jimothy? Yeah? I didn't
even really. Oh my my thing is a little different
on mine. I don't know why.
Speaker 5 (01:45:43):
Oh, so you haven't adjusted for East Coast, haven't?
Speaker 2 (01:45:46):
Just well, well we've had well, we've had another day,
another great day here at Florida Talk real Estate. I
hope everybody enjoyed what we talked about. Please don't forget
to subscribe to our YouTube page and subscribe and life
like it and if you can comment it and even
share it to let other people know about what we're about.
(01:46:06):
We give some really valuable information about Florida real estate market.
So if you have an interest in that, we're the
people to go to. Ross from bright Way Insurance. Thank
you so much today for being here.
Speaker 4 (01:46:18):
You're welcome. I know everybody has a great weekend.
Speaker 2 (01:46:20):
I'm so glad that you're feeling better. You've found so
much stronger than last week where you're hacking up along
the rough three weeks. Yeah it was back. And Mike,
thanks for coming on the show again this week like
all the time. And I hope you have a great weekend.
Yeah you too, thank you yep, yep. And Jimothy, I
hope you have an awesome, awesome weekend. Are you doing
anything special this weekend now?
Speaker 6 (01:46:40):
I no, nothing, nothing big, just to you know, keep
it on the honeydew list. And of course football, you
have me some really good Major League baseball going on
right now. If you're especially if you're a New York
baseball fan at all.
Speaker 2 (01:46:54):
Yeah, yeah, it's so true.
Speaker 3 (01:46:56):
They walloped the Dodgers.
Speaker 6 (01:46:57):
That that's while the Dodgers last night and didn't see
that coming, just the way it's been such an up
and down series, Mats.
Speaker 2 (01:47:05):
And then let me ask you, are you doing any
events for Dolphins this weekend.
Speaker 6 (01:47:09):
Yeah, I'll be up at Big Shots in Vero Beach
for a Big Shots light watch party.
Speaker 3 (01:47:13):
From twelve thirty to two thirty tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (01:47:17):
Supposedly one of the best places to retire, one of
the best family oriented cities. We talked about the two
weeks ago Vero Beach.
Speaker 3 (01:47:23):
That's a fun place to go to.
Speaker 6 (01:47:24):
It's a great place to watch some football and hit
some golf balls too, if you're into it.
Speaker 2 (01:47:28):
Oh, that's golf. It's like a top golf or something
like that. Type of Thank you, awesome, awesome, good, good, good,
Well everybody, Thank you so much for checking out the show.
You can watch the reruns on our YouTube page. Have
a great weekend.
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