Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Navigating today's real estate market can be tricky. Wanna buyer
sola house finance, or insure a house, or stuck with
a house and don't know what to do. Florida Talk
real Estate has been your local one stop real estate
shop since twenty twelve. Get the advice you need from
your local real estate pros. Here are your hosts, Jim
Depola and Johnny c. You live on real Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Yeah, good Saturday morning. Welcome to another edition Florida Talk
real Estate. Two hours of infotainment is what we offer
up and we are live on this thirteenth of September.
Thanks for bringing out there. Whether you're tuning in on
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Maybe you're using the free download the radio app that
(00:58):
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Of course that's what we are, by the way, and
of course if you don't believe me, you can check
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(01:21):
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Dial it up if you got a question, comment, concern
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(01:42):
be a part of the conversation at hand, don't be shy.
Dial on. In the first voice you'll hear the melodious
tones of our producer Extraordinaiy. There's my brother from another mother, Jimothy,
How the hell are you doing?
Speaker 3 (01:51):
Mighty fine, Good morning, gentlemen. Happy to be here on
a Saturday.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
Always good to see you, dude. Good to see you too, Bud.
And uh yeah, Saturday is carved off for a little
bit of this and a little bit of that, like
Jimmy over there. Yeah boy, that's me, your air traffic
Control Johnny C, your old buddy, year old pal. Let's
get to the very important people, the most important stuff,
like Mike Row he's the mortgage guy from the mortgage firm.
He's brought all kinds of important details today. How are you,
(02:17):
my friend?
Speaker 4 (02:17):
Uh, I was fine. Now I'm nervous. Oh no, I
didn't realize I was supposed to have all this information.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Oh. I thought it was because we're on the radio.
Speaker 4 (02:25):
Oh, like I should have some content.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Yeah, now I'm nervous.
Speaker 4 (02:29):
Professional real estate.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Yeah, yeah, you're loaded with content. We're ready to go. Yeah,
thank you, Yeah, thank you.
Speaker 5 (02:35):
It's good.
Speaker 4 (02:36):
That's a nice compliment.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
I think. Always nice to see you, or it is
just loaded, loaded, loaded full of something and.
Speaker 4 (02:44):
Well, good morning.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Always a pleasure, my friend.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
Yeah, of course.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
And let's say good morning to our fearless leader. Now
thirteen plus years now, I've told you that he runs
a top producer, Keller Williams Team, the Florida Home Pros
Team and Keller Williams Innovations. You'll find Jimmy D. There's
jim Depola. Jimmy D.
Speaker 5 (02:59):
How you be, Hey, everybody. I'm feeling very well, Johnny,
thank you so much, Happy stuff Florida, everybody, nice cloudy.
Speaker 2 (03:06):
Day out my way yet very long. I don't know
if I do.
Speaker 5 (03:12):
I had a lot of thunderheads stuff over on the
East coast.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
That's what it's what I love about Florida. You look out,
you're like, oh, it's nice, and you're like your neighbor's like, no,
it's not actually a month sooner.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
The best part is it was like summer hot and
it's like, oh my god, when's this heat gonna end?
And then it's now it's rain every days, when's this
rain gonna end?
Speaker 2 (03:37):
It is a cycle, isn't it. We do have a
nice little, uh little cooling trend. I guess right now,
a little, a little push through it.
Speaker 5 (03:45):
It is a little it has been a little cooler.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
Easy for me.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
It's at work inside.
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (03:49):
But if you take the opposite attitude mic that you
enjoy the hot weather and you enjoy the amminity, then
you're happy most of the time about stuff instead of
complaining about it.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
If you're living, you have to enjoy the heat.
Speaker 4 (04:04):
I don't know if it's like like this for everybody,
but maybe it's just my body type. But uh, i'll
walk outside, I'll be sweating in three minutes.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
Oh you make it three minutes.
Speaker 4 (04:16):
I wish nothing like the barrest amount of physical exertion
and it's like my shirt is so trill. I'm walking
at a normal pace, so you know.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
It's weird. I don't know why I do enjoy the heat,
but for some reason, when i'm if I have my
wife and my daughter in the car. As soon as
you turn the ignition on, there like push the air.
They want it now, right.
Speaker 4 (04:39):
My dad is like that, alright.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
I'm a windows down, music up kind of guy. Yeah.
I don't run the easy, so I just going from
place to place. I will work up a sweat.
Speaker 4 (04:50):
Just because I don't know why you're used to it.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Though.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
I like it fresh air, well you know, I mean
as fresh as it is around here. Still, I used
to be the same way. I love driving. I would
do windows Okay.
Speaker 5 (05:01):
Can I ask you guys a question. Were you both
smokers at one point?
Speaker 2 (05:04):
At you and I know you were.
Speaker 5 (05:06):
I was too, and I was a window down guy too.
I bet it's partly that, so i'd have to happen.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Maybe maybe I've transitioned into it. My first handful of
years in Florida, I was straight turned that air on
as soon as you can. I don't know what's happened,
but I'm in the last well I don't know, fifteen years.
I'm straight. All windows down. Make that music as loud
as it can be because I'm deaf, and let's go.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
Have you always showered every day or is there like
a time in your past when you wouldn't shower? So
the windows being down would be helpful.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
If I'm not, it would be very helpful to Yeah,
if i'm If I'm not taking a shower, I mean
i'm camping or something, you know.
Speaker 5 (05:43):
Yeah, there was a pretty famous movie that was filmed here,
partially here in Lakeworth called Body Heat. I don't know
if you remember that with Kathleen Turner. Yeah, and Kevin
k Not Kevin Kline. I can't remember the guy from
The Big Chill, one of the guys from the Big Show.
Speaker 4 (06:01):
That's another blessing. There's a lot of people in the
Big Show.
Speaker 5 (06:04):
Yeah, I know, but it's the guy, the guy that
I think. No, he wasn't the dead guy. I thought
he was a guy in the casket. He wasn't the
dead guy. The dead guy. Yeah, Kathleen Turner can't remember.
But anyway, that whole thing was filmed about this corrupt
attorney and this lady trying to kill somebody. And set
up somebody for murder. But it was set here in Florida,
(06:25):
and it was like older Florida and there was no
air conditioning. Sought their whole movie. Everybody's sweating and wiping
their brow and right, and they had the fans on
and everything, you know, to keep it going. And to me,
that was so exemplary, just Florida, right, the weather, and
I just when I was a kid, I was like,
(06:46):
that's where I want to stay. It's something like that.
I really really enjoyed the heat. I like the heat.
But I got to tell you, the last three years,
I'm sure it's because I'm getting older. It's sometimes it's
like I don't want that heat anymore. Yeah, yeah, it's
pretty wild.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Well we changed, did you find the body heat?
Speaker 3 (07:02):
As far as the stars, William William Hurt, it was William.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
Ted dancing.
Speaker 5 (07:10):
Yeah. They had a pretty good cast in that, and
they filmed a lot of it at this bar in
downtown Lake Worth. I don't know if it's still there anymore.
It's a pretty cool movie. It's film noir, so it's
a crime like film noir movies.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
I still see Ted dancing and brand new commercials. I
can't tell you what the commercials are.
Speaker 5 (07:27):
But he has another hit TV show.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Yeah, I don't know anything.
Speaker 5 (07:33):
He just it's like Netflix or Paramount Plus or something.
But I just watched it. You ever hear only murders
in the building. It's like with Martin Short and oh yeah, yeah, yeah,
it's the same exact thing. But he's also.
Speaker 4 (07:50):
Enthusiasm as a regular. Well that's gone, no, but he
was on it, Yeah, he was.
Speaker 5 (07:54):
Yeah, and he had other series. That guy has had
so many series and they last. His series don't get
canceled in like a year.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
It's awesome.
Speaker 4 (08:03):
He's got that one. He's got that one that he
can lean on pretty heavy.
Speaker 5 (08:06):
Which one's not here?
Speaker 2 (08:10):
You call that the money maker?
Speaker 5 (08:11):
Yeah, the money maker exactly. Anyway, Well he's aged one too.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
I mean he's just silver. But he's not one of
those ones you're like, what did you do? Man? That's
way too much surgery. You don't even look like yourself anymore. Yeah,
he's ted.
Speaker 5 (08:23):
Dancing, Yeah, exactly, exactly. So we got a lot to
talk about today. One of the things I want to
talk about is I remember, I think I started talking
about this in twenty eighteen. So Broken Clock is right,
twice a day. They're talking about stagflation coming right, So
I saw a headline, is this the width of stagflation?
Speaker 2 (08:45):
Well, you're starting to get a little increase in unemployment claims,
So a little bit more of the time is the
time to get ahead of it and be like, ah,
here comes.
Speaker 5 (08:53):
A little bit of inflation, a little bit of unemployment,
you know, and all of a sudden you're getting this
concoction to create not a good thing, really good news.
The interest rates have dropped very significantly this week, Mike.
I mean, it isn't going to make or break your budget,
but it's still that's the biggest drop we've had in
(09:13):
quite a while. So we're going to talk about that.
Speaker 4 (09:15):
Yeah, went from six and six and a half to
six point.
Speaker 5 (09:19):
Three five and one one week. That's zero point one
five is a big drop for one week. Pressure though,
ye yeah, yeah, So so they just push that down.
We're also going to talk about all my feelings, you
know exactly. I also thought it would be kind of
(09:39):
smart to talk about economics one oh one and how
it relates to real estate, so you can understand as
a buyer or seller or refire right, something like that
of like, what should happen in the market. I was
talking to a guy yesterday who's buying a home and
(10:00):
he his he said, his first time home buyer. And
he's like, yeah, I'm going to buy this house, and
I think his rate's going to be like five point
six and he goes, yes, So I'm going to go
ahead and buy the house and then in a year
I'll just go ahead and refly, right, And I said, okay.
And I'm not his agent. He was calling me from
(10:20):
advice because he's a friend of a friend or whatever,
and said, hey, why don't you talk to Jim and
find out a couple of things. So I said to him, look,
you can't rely on the REFI. So if you're buying
the house now expecting the REFI to be your affordable budget,
be very careful. You got to have the affordable budget
now with the current mortgage payment'.
Speaker 4 (10:40):
Oh, he was saying, he more or less will need
to refly to relieve some pressure.
Speaker 5 (10:44):
He was counting on it. Almost interesting, you know what
I mean.
Speaker 4 (10:48):
And he's you're saying, he said five five point six.
Speaker 5 (10:51):
Yeah, it was a great interest rate, and he was
expecting to get even lower than that.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
You know what the rates are currently.
Speaker 5 (10:58):
He's so fresh, brand new, like his agent didn't explain everything.
Speaker 4 (11:02):
Is he's probably paying money for that rate.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
He might be well, I think he's getting to sell
her credit. He's getting to sell a credit. Well, it's
a can you can you do buy down with a
fit cheh Okay.
Speaker 4 (11:13):
Then you can't with the DPA program like the Florida
Housing GEA.
Speaker 5 (11:16):
But I don't think he's in another state, so I
don't think hey have that.
Speaker 4 (11:19):
But I guess the So the question for me is
like if it costs money to get a lower than
you know, normal what i'll call the par intest, Well,
he's getting it from the seller, regardless of where it's
coming from, it's costing money. And then if you're refinancing,
like there's a break events like he should be asking himself,
does it make sense to buy down the raid or
take that money and do something else with it. He's
(11:41):
deciding to take that money it's available to him and
buy down the interest rate. So that's the old Hey
give me, you know, give me a thousand dollars today, Jim,
and I'm gonna pay you back one hundred dollars a
month right for the life of loon right right, right,
So that's you know what did I do?
Speaker 5 (11:59):
Uh?
Speaker 4 (12:00):
Break even?
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Right?
Speaker 4 (12:01):
Right? So if you refinance your loan before ten months,
you shouldn't have given me a thousand bucks because you
know you never made it back.
Speaker 5 (12:08):
Right, Well that's sort of yeah, yeah, yeah, go keep going.
Speaker 4 (12:12):
Like yeah, so then if you so they break even.
The simple break even there is like, Okay, I'm gonna
take x amount of money, I'm gonna direct it towards
buying down my rate. Think of it as like I
don't know, prepaid interest, right, but essentially give me money. Now,
I'm going to pay you back incrementally. The longer you
allow me to pay you back, the better the choice
it was for you. Right, you're in the red for
a certain amount of months and then you're in the black,
(12:33):
and then the more you're in the black, the better,
the better the decision was. So, if you're planning on
taking money, buying down a rate, and then refinancing within
a year, it's probably well within the break even period,
and so he should do something else with the money.
Speaker 5 (12:46):
Yeah, And I explained that. I said, look, a refine
a year, you'd have to have a really significant, significant
interest rate drop to want to refinance in a year
or you paid like maybe a non conforming loan, you're
paying way high than the average interest rate, and then
you want to get locked into a regular interest rate
if you will. Yeah, but I also explained about the
(13:07):
closing costs and how you have to divide how much
you're paying to get that refine, and you also needed
divide it by the savings.
Speaker 4 (13:14):
The other thing is I'm talking to people. You know, obviously,
this this rate talk has got people thinking about refinances,
especially if they were you know, late twenty twenty three,
a lot of twenty twenty four. We're starting to get
into this zone where the rate is better than your rate, right,
maybe by a little bit, maybe by you start getting
toward like one point, right, so one and a half.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
At this point, you're just hoping you got the equity positioning, right,
That's it.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
That's exactly where I was going, which is if you don't,
if your home value hasn't increased, and you really you
just made your normal payments, so you haven't paid down
your principle a lot in the first year or two
of the loan, you know, you may not have the
equity position that is ideal for refinancing because you end
up with a loan, are you rolling in your costs?
Speaker 2 (14:01):
Right?
Speaker 4 (14:01):
These costs do exist more or less, and so has
your has your home value increased enough just naturally over
the past two years to allow for that refile?
Speaker 5 (14:12):
And if you're FHA financing chances are or via financing
chances are unless we had a really strong appreciation year,
that isn't going to happen, right, Because you need twenty
percent equity minimum, right, you.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
Don't need it if you want to get rid of
that the mortgage insurance component. Right. So so one way.
Speaker 5 (14:31):
I'm talking about if you're trying to get do it
for interest rate like the guy was talking about. Let's
focus on what the guy was his intent was by it. Now,
in a year, the interest rates over drop and get
a lower payment, right, right, So I know that you
can use I know you could do something rid of
the PMI and that will lower your payment too, but
let's just keep it like kind of simple.
Speaker 4 (14:51):
Well, what I'm saying you said you need, you need
at least twenty percent. So the answer is no, you can.
You can refinance. Uh, what's called a limited cash out.
No cash out refinance. So let's say I started with
an FHA loan, I did it a three and a
half percent down. Well, if my home value has an
increased to that twenty percent equity position, you can still
do a limited cash out refinance. I mean you can
(15:15):
roll in your closing costs.
Speaker 2 (15:16):
Right.
Speaker 4 (15:16):
You can't do like debt consolidation, which is what a
lot of people think with cash out, but you can
basically do a replace one loan with the new loan.
But if you don't have the twenty percent equity position,
and you're going like say FHA to FHA or VA
to VA whatever it is, or or even conventional to conventional,
But without twenty percent, you're still going to have mortgage
insurance in your new payment, right, So yeah, you're going
(15:38):
to get the lower interust rate. But the other thing
that traditionally people look at with refis is getting rid
of them. So you're still going to have m I
in that picture.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
And what's am I now? Like eight?
Speaker 4 (15:49):
No, So it is expressed as a percentage, And the
way I like to think about it, I add my
thirty year rate to my mi I rate, my AMI
factor and that's my interest rate. So am I it
depends on. So we're talking about private mortgage insurance on
the conventional side, or in the fah's case, is just
called mortgage insurance. But f Ah's am I. If you're
(16:11):
doing the traditional three and a half percent down the
low down payment, which most people are doing with FHA,
it's point five to five percent.
Speaker 5 (16:18):
They dropped it. They dropped you twice.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
I know, because when I got in it was like one.
Speaker 4 (16:27):
Yeah, it was probably point eight five.
Speaker 5 (16:29):
They know it was they dropped to point eight five.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
At one point almost five, it was like what it
was or maybe three five.
Speaker 5 (16:37):
So that's been also a benefit to buyers over time.
I mean, you're saving you know, point eight five. You know,
if we're at point five to five now from the beginning,
we're like saving three quarters of a point just from
your mortgage insurance over time. And the reason why that
happened was they wanted to protect themselves from foreclosures, and
as we're getting other foreclosure prices, they brought it all
way up to that high one percent above you know
(16:59):
pm I at one point one to two or one
point twenty five, and then as they saw the foreclosure
risk was so low for so long, we've had less
than one percent foreclosure since that crisis for years, right,
So they dropped it to the point eight five probably,
and then they did again to point five.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
Because they're writing more dependable loans, you know.
Speaker 5 (17:21):
Well, yeah, yeah, and there's been less risks. It's like that,
there's less risks. Nobody's you know, there's a stampede of
foreclosures coming in.
Speaker 4 (17:29):
Well remember that the them. I I don't know how
deep we want to get into this, but essentially FAHA
and VA are mortgage insurance entities essentially, right. So the mandate,
faha's mandate is home ownership, the American dream. We want
(17:50):
you to provide loans. We're going to set the rules
for how to approve those people for loans. So we're
going to set our own risk kind of assessment, and
then we're going to provide the insurance to you, mister
and missus lender, right, the buyer or borrower pays that insurance,
but it doesn't protect them at all. It protects the lender. Right. So,
(18:11):
and the whole point is, well, you can do alone
with very little skin in the game, very little down payment.
Don't worry, We're going to make sure it's a good loan,
and we're going to make sure if there is a
problem that you have some insurance.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
Right.
Speaker 4 (18:24):
So FAHA operates as a mortgage insurance entity via also
mortgage insurance energy. So the am I that they charge
either upfront or monthly some case both, it funds their
insurance activity. Right. So as that account is achieving certain milestones, right,
(18:47):
and it's like that that account shouldn't be growing forever.
It should be it should have enough in there to
cover their exposure. And their exposure is some factor of
how many claims are we going to have where we're
we owe money to somebody. Right, It's just like any
insurance operation, right, Like and they're they're not for profit,
you know, Hey, let's just make as much as possible
(19:08):
so that we can diversify and then we're going to
get into all these It's not that type of insurance company.
It's like, fund the insurance you know, account enough to
cover our anticipated claim activity just in case.
Speaker 5 (19:19):
Right.
Speaker 4 (19:19):
So that's why that factor is changing because they're trying
to figure out, like what's it going to take so
that we're you know, where we need to be, but
not overfunded and certainly not underfunded, but getting back to
the point, so you could definitely refinance from it a
loan that has m I into a new loan that
has m I. It'd be nice to get rid of
the more insurance. Like who wants to pay a fee
(19:40):
that you don't that doesn't give you anything other than
the ability to do a low down payment loan.
Speaker 2 (19:45):
Right, I guess it depends on how much your your
interest rate has changed, Right, so everyb willing to eat
that m I. If you're like, man, the interest rates
dropped by a full point if.
Speaker 4 (19:54):
You did an f H a loan two years ago.
Let's just whatever, Say you're a seven and a half
and then your am I f actors point five five,
so you're basically eight point zero five. Like, that's the
way you should be thinking about it, right, you got
to add them. And then if you're new let's say
the new rate six and a half, but you also
have the MI at point fivey five, Well, now you're
at seven point zero five, so you're basically one percent lower.
(20:15):
Right if you're going FAHA to FH. If you went
FAHA to conventional without mi I, well then that's.
Speaker 5 (20:21):
A bigger point and a half. It's a bigger down
to point and a half.
Speaker 4 (20:24):
But home values unless you've done, like, you know, significant improvements,
just the standard how much of has has your house
appreciated in the last year or two years? Like that's
it's not it hasn't been. It's not twenty percent.
Speaker 5 (20:41):
And people don't get twenty percent. Even during COVID, we
didn't get twenty percent appreciation year over year. We were
getting like numbers. We were getting twelve and thirteen and fourteen. Yeah,
but that was like monster numbers. It's like, yeah, like
what you know, probably once in a lifetime situation. Let
me tell you that wasn't a hell healthy market. No,
(21:01):
it was like people learned about crack and couldn't get
rid of it. Markets you know, they added an addiction. Yeah,
and you know, you know, slow markets are bad too,
But that kind of market is not a healthy market.
It's almost like cycle.
Speaker 4 (21:13):
Marketing, like the refinanced conversation. It's it's one of those
because it could be presented by a professional in a
very appealing way, and I you know, this is one
of those things that I struggle with because I know
that people coming to me for solid advice, like hey, Mike,
what's your expert opinion on doesn't make sense to refinance
or not. But they will also have five other people
(21:36):
know that they like, Wow, it's a great to call
them up. The receive a phone call right or something
in the mail that says, hey, do you realize you
can save you know, two hundred dollars a month, And
it's like, yeah, you're right. Your payment might go down
two hundred dollars a month and that could make or
break it, right, Like that's the goal, Like, hey, I
just I'm so tight. Maybe this guy that you've started
(21:59):
the conversation with is he just needs his payment to
be lower, right, Maybe you got hit with the property
tax increase that first or second year, and so just
the budget is really really tight. I'll do anything to
save two hundred dollars a month. And it's like, okay, well,
if you're willing to add on, you know, maybe you
had a down payment assistance. I was talking to somebody.
(22:19):
They had hometown Heroes eighteen thousand dollars, right, So if
you're willing to add on eighteen thousand dollars onto the
low your balance right to what you owe and the
closing costs, so whatever, let's say twenty five thousand dollars
twenty seven thousand dollars whatever. If you're willing to take
on that additional loan amount.
Speaker 5 (22:40):
And start out of thirty years aye, and.
Speaker 4 (22:42):
Start a new thirty year loan and the result is
a two hundred dollars month lower payment, that's okay as
long as you understand that's.
Speaker 5 (22:48):
What you're saying. Filmost like, you're buying your house back
in a way and getting two hundred dollars less payment,
but you're paying more for the house that you.
Speaker 4 (22:55):
Put And then whatever the equity position you have built
up over these last two years, well now you're again.
Speaker 5 (23:01):
You're you're wiping away any equity you have. And that's
a lot of things people have to remember.
Speaker 4 (23:05):
Tough because I think about it that way, and I
evaluate refinances in that way, and I counsel or advise
people in that way, and I feel like sometimes I'm
like talking myself out of business a little bit, but
I gotta do it the right thing. Yeah, I gotta
do the right thing.
Speaker 5 (23:22):
And here's the thing, here's the real life example about this.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
And by the way, you should feel that way because
you're totally talking to yourself out of business.
Speaker 4 (23:30):
Oh yeah, yeah, sure, it's.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
Not like you feel that way. Well, it feels like
I am. No, you are. You're talking, but you're doing
the right thing by the people that are coming to you.
And that's a that's a beautiful thing. That's the Florida
Talk real Estate way. That's why Mike Row is a
valuable part of this team. That's why when you're looking
for pros pros, when you're looking to buy a home,
sell a home, stuck with a home, you don't know
what to do anything that touches the world of real estate.
(23:52):
You need to go to somebody that's going to give
you an understanding of your options and what's best for
you and your family, not just yeah, we can do it,
but it's done. It may not be your best case scenario,
it may not be the best timing for you. And
being told that and then making that decision, well, that's
a different beast than just hey, that's your best choice.
Florida Talk real Estate at least should be vetted when
(24:15):
you're looking to touch anything in the world of real estate.
Florida Talk real Estate dot Com. Florida talkreal Estate dot
Com get to know the prospros at Florida talkreal Estate
dot Com.
Speaker 5 (24:25):
Thank you, Johnny. Here's the real life example of this.
I was going to bring it up today, Mike, but
I'm gonna go ahead and do just to show a
real life example of when Mike's given real news to
people and they have a different expectation because they talk
to other people and they're like shut you know, they
emotionally shut down because they're not getting the information they
want to hear. So remember recently, Joe and Linda were
(24:48):
wanted to sell their house, so they were going to
sell a house to a relative, and the relative probably
when Mike went through it, the relative was definitely not
quite worthy and they were a bunch of stuff the
potential buyer needed to do and it was probably going
to take a time. It wasn't just pay off a
(25:10):
credit card. There was a lot of stuff involved in it.
So Mike went over everything and explained, look, we can
get this all worked out, but you're gonna have to
follow my instructions on how to do this. There is
a path, and they were very kind of emotional. Is
it right to say like emotionally shut down, like almost
passive aggressive or so I don't want to use the
(25:31):
wrong term. But they didn't like what Mike was saying
bottom line, because they really wanted to buy this house,
and they were talking to other people who didn't go
in depth as much as Mike did to really find
out and giving them total assurances that there would be
no problem, they can get along. So here they have
that person saying that, and then Mike's telling them no, no, no,
(25:51):
no no, that you've got to do this and this
and this and this in order to be qualified, and
even then you might have to still have some time,
and they didn't want to hear it, so they pulled
away from Mike. Then they found out that they couldn't
do it, so then they brought another relative in and
Mike went through the same thing and it was no.
(26:12):
And then finally what ended up happening was the father
stepped up, the ex husband slash father stepped in, and
then he's buying the house. So it isn't even the
people that originally started to do the whole thing, and
he's an investor, he had his own guy. They'd wanted
to work this, so I couldn't do anything about that.
But the thing is in that leads I know, but
(26:32):
it really bummed me out because Mike gave all the
correct information to those two buyers, right, those but two
tent buyers. Mike was one hundred percent right everything he said.
And I was talking to the other mortgage broker that
was saying that they could do it, and I was like, well,
why do you think you could do it? And I
had the information that Mike gave me and I would
(26:53):
bring it up and he didn't even pull a hard
pull on the credit yet. Mike right, and they were
making these assurances. And that's the point I'm trying to make.
Mike will give you the real information you need to
make the right decisions that sometimes can cost you money
while you're explored by the house, like inspections and appraisals,
(27:13):
and know you can close as opposed to other people
that give you the assurances without doing the thorough checks
you need to do to really know if you're good
for that loan. And it's so emotionally disappointing when you
trust somebody like that and then you don't get the
job done. It's devastating to the person.
Speaker 2 (27:33):
You got goals to close. Yeah, just get in the process.
Speaker 4 (27:37):
ABC Johnny always closed in the sales way and then
like actually, let's get to the faceline. Yeah, it's also
not only is it devastating to buyers, sellers, agents who
have all put time, emotional investment and monetary everything, it's
devastating to your career as a loan riche if you
(28:01):
if you get people into like there's no way to
have legs in this business or longevity and real estate relationships,
if you're like every preapproval you give it's like fifty
to fifty, Like yeah, I hope, so sure, spaghetti, let's
make it work.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
You know, And can you imagine if it was like
a fifty to fifty shot with Mike every time you'd
be like, dude, what.
Speaker 4 (28:23):
Are we doing it? Or if I was like, yeah, Jim,
I don't know. I did what I need to do,
but I just like it's got to go to underwriting,
Like I just don't know. I don't know what the
underwriter is going to think about well see any of
this right, And it's like, well, but we got to
get into contract. We're going to spend you know, a
thousand dollars on inspections and appraisals, and we got a
loan deadline, a commitment, and you know, like can you
(28:46):
imagine working. I mean, I'm sure you have. Like you've been,
you have been on the seller side of things where
at some point you realize the lending for the buyers
got problems, and it's like having one right now, it's
like it gives you a heart attack. Right, Well, this
one you got to perform.
Speaker 5 (29:04):
Listen to this. The buyers went to buy the house.
It was a husband and wife. They had a mortgage broker.
I wasn't really sure. I was really I just got
burned with another deal where the buyer's agent was saying,
remember Bobby and Becky and they had a buyer and
they couldn't close, and they ended up keeping the deposit, right,
(29:25):
this other's got to keep the deposit.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (29:27):
So with that one, the wife lost the job, right, basically,
she lost her job. So it turned into a whole
thing and they had to change the irs, transcripts and everything.
Then there had to be a playment plan worked out.
It was very skin of the teeth whether it's going
to work out. We found out on Thursday that we're
closing next week, but it took him about three and
(29:49):
a half four weeks, and it was very iffy. It's
very scary for everybody involved in the deal. Youah, it's
very stressful the point I want to take the break.
But I hope he people that are talking about buying
or refine really understand what we're talking about about working
with Mike. He's going to give you real advice, real information,
and be very helpful how to solve problems the right
(30:11):
way and not give you false hopes. So anytime you're
thinking about that, you've got to think of us and
give us a calm. We'll get you over to Mike
right away.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
Yeah, you got to go to pros pros. Look, you
know a lot of people. You probably know some people
that work in the field. I wish I could can
we may work on like a like a cheat sheet,
like a way to vet people to determine if you're
working with people that really are as thorough as you'd
like them to be, because that would be a huge advantage.
(30:41):
You should be vetting your professionals, and I encourage you
to do that. Start with the team at Florida Talkrealestate
dot com. I'm not driving you in that direction to
say like, hey, these are the only people that are
great at what they do. There are lots of people
that are very good at what they do in this industry,
but there's a ton more that are not good at
(31:02):
all at their jobs, and that is a crapshoot that
I don't want you to be in. When you're trying
to find a pros pro buying a home, selling a home,
stuck with a home, you don't know what to do,
these are very stressful times. Is some of the biggest purchases,
the biggest transactions of your life. You gotta have people
that have your best interest and know all the pitfalls,
know what your options are and present them to you
(31:24):
very articularly and give you an understanding so that you
can sort through it what's best for you and your family.
So start your vetting process at floridatalkreal Estate dot com.
I got a professional in every aspect one click away
Florida talkreal Estate dot Com. You hear many of them
here on all shows on Saturday, and there's only so
many microphones, so there's many that you don't hear every Saturday.
(31:46):
But believe me when I tell you they all are
like minded, They work cohesively together, and it's all about
treating the people right. Being a very contributing member of
the community and seeing what happens for you and your
family puts a smile on their face. Helping you along
the way is what's most important. The business always comes
in the end when you write by people. So go
to Florida Talkrealestate dot com. Learn what we're talking about.
(32:08):
Florida Talkrealestate dot com. Know what, use it, love it,
share it. You can change lives, including your very own
at Florida talkreestate dot Com. We're back in forur minutes.
Thanks for being with us every Saturday, Florida Talk real Estate.
Right here, it's real Radio.
Speaker 1 (32:34):
This is Florida Talk real Estate with Jim Depola and
Johnny c. Got a question for the show. Call us
live at one eight seven seven nine two seven sixty
nine sixty nine.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
It is I Give it to you again eight seven
seven nine two seven six nine six nine toll free.
We'll take you up until eleven o'clock, as we do
every Saturday. We're live on this thirteenth of September. Thanks
for being out there. If you do dial in, remember
to say good more Jimothy, our producers shorten air. What's
up my dude?
Speaker 3 (33:02):
Hello, Hello, and good morning gentlemen. By the way, I
checked our international numbers.
Speaker 4 (33:06):
We're way up in Portugal.
Speaker 5 (33:08):
Wow. Oh that's pretty good.
Speaker 2 (33:10):
That's that Facebook push that he's doing for Yeah, a
big Portuguese push. Nice it works, See it works. Amazing.
World Wided on your free download your aheart radio app.
And thanks for being out there Portugal.
Speaker 4 (33:25):
We see you. Do you remember we did good morning?
What is it?
Speaker 2 (33:31):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (33:31):
How are you gonna you're gonna shout out to our
Portuguese peeps?
Speaker 5 (33:35):
Was that again?
Speaker 2 (33:36):
It was?
Speaker 4 (33:36):
It was bomb. Yeah, it's like b O M D
I A. But you know, the the kind of you
have to give it a little gia.
Speaker 2 (33:50):
Where where is Portuguese spoken.
Speaker 4 (33:53):
In Portugal and in Brazil?
Speaker 2 (33:54):
Brazil? Right? Okay? Yeah, I'm like they speak Portuguese somewhere
else too, and it's Brazil, it's Brazil.
Speaker 5 (33:59):
I thought I read something where there's like thirteen countries
to speak Portuguese. I thought, I just I just heard
that somewhere and I was like, WHOA, I didn't know that.
Speaker 4 (34:08):
I only know if too predominantly speak Portuguese.
Speaker 5 (34:13):
It was something that I just went. It wasn't like
I was reading something full. It was just like a factory.
The flash crossed my mind. That was picking up. I'm like, wow,
I never knew that. Yeah, who knows.
Speaker 2 (34:23):
I wonder how many times I've heard Portuguese being spoken
and never even realized it was Portuguese.
Speaker 4 (34:27):
Ye assumed it was.
Speaker 5 (34:29):
Yeah, maybe like Spapanish or creole or something like that.
If I confuse it for something interesting?
Speaker 2 (34:35):
Yeah, uh, Jimithe I'm pretty ser short on air, Johnny See,
that's me Mike Row. He's the mortgage guy from the
mortgage firm, and he uh, he evidently knows some Portuguese.
Speaker 4 (34:44):
A couple of words. Yeah, yeah, did jiu jitsu long
enough you probably it's gonna say something.
Speaker 2 (34:49):
Is that your Is that your JJ back then EJJ BACKJJ? Yeah, yeah,
that's two j's better. How to speak Portuguese?
Speaker 4 (35:01):
Apparently there's a few countries in Africa that speak Portuguese,
including I would never guess that Mozambique who knew Portuguese?
Speaker 2 (35:09):
Yea predominantly Portuguese Mozembique.
Speaker 4 (35:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (35:12):
Interesting? Is that?
Speaker 5 (35:13):
Well?
Speaker 2 (35:14):
So I learned something new every day and that might
be the only thing I learned. But that's amazing.
Speaker 4 (35:20):
Let me learn you something.
Speaker 5 (35:21):
Thank you?
Speaker 1 (35:23):
Do you?
Speaker 2 (35:23):
Is there a lot of crossover between Spanish and Portuguese
or no.
Speaker 4 (35:26):
Uh, there's enough where it's it's familiar. But they're like
a Spanish speaker cannot speak Portuguese, vice versus can.
Speaker 2 (35:33):
You understand it?
Speaker 4 (35:34):
I would say native, So Portuguese speakers can understand Spanish
more than a Spanish speaker can understand Portuguese because cross.
Speaker 2 (35:47):
You're fluent in Spanish, ye know a little bit of Portuguese.
Couple Yeah, not enough, but you would say, somebody that's
fluent in Portuguese, you'd be able to understand a Spanish
conversation better than the opposite.
Speaker 4 (35:58):
Opposite, Yeah for sure.
Speaker 2 (36:00):
Interesting, Yeah, which one would you suggest learning? Because evidently
Portuguese is more far reaching than because I can understand
Spanish if I know Portuguese, is there more advantage to.
Speaker 5 (36:13):
Learn about I see what you're saying. Yeah, so.
Speaker 4 (36:17):
Yeah, I think if I were to bring up the
list of Spanish speaking countries, it would be more Portuguese.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
I just wouldn't be able to understand Portuguese very well.
Speaker 4 (36:24):
I would probably recommend Spanish, but that's just you know,
we live in South Florida.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Right, seems to be a Spanish has so many different
dialects too. I mean it's not just one Spanish. I mean,
there are so many different loans.
Speaker 5 (36:38):
There's I mean, yeah, the spanishillion Spanish, there's some South
Americans Spanish.
Speaker 4 (36:44):
I don't think there's that much variation in the the
overall Spanish language, but there's certainly accents all over, regional
accents region.
Speaker 2 (36:51):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (36:52):
And I wonder what the Spanish country, like a country
redneck accent is right, because they got it right, they
got it like and like the rich people. I wonder
what kind of accents like the rich people have, you know,
like Thurston Hell from heel against right, if they talk
like that.
Speaker 4 (37:11):
Hover. Have you ever heard bad bunny speak Spanish?
Speaker 5 (37:17):
No, I haven't.
Speaker 4 (37:19):
There's well, I don't know which one, which one you
were going for? That's that's the which one it used
to be the one because that's the rich.
Speaker 5 (37:27):
The hood dial Yeah, it's like the hood dials.
Speaker 4 (37:29):
Just like the street dialog.
Speaker 2 (37:32):
Dude is a global icon. That dude is a monster.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
He did something, man. I saw him at the other day.
He had like it was a picture. He's wearing jeans,
He's got like a rope as a belt. I'm like,
what's going on here? This is on he's on.
Speaker 2 (37:44):
Tour for him.
Speaker 4 (37:46):
What's happening?
Speaker 2 (37:47):
It's a beast.
Speaker 4 (37:48):
What's happening?
Speaker 2 (37:48):
Microw mortgage guy from the borgagory of Johnny c or
O buddy. Of course, Jimmy D's here. He's our fearless
leader thirteen plus years now. I've told you he runs
a top producing Keller Williams team, the Florida Home Pros
Team and Keller Walliams in as. Hi, Jimmy D.
Speaker 5 (38:00):
Hey, everybody, thank you, Johnny appreciate it. Yeah, okay, I'll stop.
I won't talk my Portuguese today. Okay, so everybody understands.
Jim your cameras, I guess that would help. It's looking
at thank you, Jimmy, because I never looked at the
camera when I'm on the show. Yeah, there it is. Okay,
thank you, Jimmy, appreciate it. You have pro's brother. I've
only been doing this thirteen years? Have we been on
(38:21):
the show, Johnny? Thirteen years? Right? But can you imagine
next year's gonna say fourteen? No, it's looking at this,
oh yeah, just doing its own thing. I guess say
I took over.
Speaker 4 (38:35):
I was gonna say if I were a conspiracy theorist
are you human? YEA right, human.
Speaker 5 (38:41):
I was like, I don't want to see Jimmy d right. Okay, Mike,
we're gonna talk about mortgage rates right now, and Johnny,
we're gonn talk about morge rates. So we're not going
to talk about the national economy because that's gonna be
a little other segment. Okay. So I don't want to.
I want to kind of separate him because I want
to focus on the mortgage rates because it is news.
So I don't want to talk about the future and
(39:01):
stuff about what's going to happen. I want to kind
of just focus on where we're at and where we've
been with interest rates over the last like two years. Okay.
And then later on in the show, we're going to
probably the next segment, we'll go right into the current
economy and what all this stuff means and what's probably
going to happen in the near future.
Speaker 4 (39:20):
You're predicting where rates are going to be.
Speaker 5 (39:22):
Well predicting where the rate's going to be, and even
farther than that, like the rate cut for the FED
is coming out next Wednesday, Wednesday, Thursday. You know, I'm
saying they're meeting next Wednesday, Thursday, right, so they're going
to make a decision on that. But I think what
I'd like to do is take a look a little
bit longer down the road for the bigger picture, because
(39:43):
I think there's a lot of interesting factors that people
need to consider and when you're trying to buy or sell,
the people that are trying to weigh the market, I
want to kind of let them know where we're at. Okay,
So the first thing is the big news, of course,
is that we had a point one five drop from
six point five to six point three five according to
Freddie macweekly survey that's been out since nineteen seventy one. Right,
(40:09):
so we're at six point three five. Now, that's pretty good.
I think that is Mike, is that the low for
the year.
Speaker 4 (40:15):
It's the lowest and almost.
Speaker 5 (40:18):
Yes, it's the low for a year for this year.
But right, the last time that we were near this,
because you can't get the perfect number was October. We're
at six point three to two October tenth, twenty twenty four,
and then the week after that we went up to
six four four. Right, So six point three two is
the closest number to the six point three five, and
(40:39):
that was last October. But here's the interesting thing. If
people are trying to weigh out all this interest rates stuff,
you know, trying to gauge the market and their decisions
based on interest rates only, which we all know is
kind of we've we've talked about this. That na kind
of a silly exercise. It's a factor, but shouldn't be
the factor.
Speaker 2 (40:58):
Yep.
Speaker 5 (41:00):
But if you start from January, I went back to January,
even going back to October of twenty twenty four, the
highest we got so that was six three to two.
The highest we got was seven point oh four. And
the lowest we got is since October of last year
is six point three five. So we've only had a
(41:22):
point six five roughly point sixty five point seven variants
for the whole year. Yes, and it didn't like go
up point seven and went up a little bit, went
down a little bit, went up a little bit again,
went down a little bit again, but it hung within
that half point roughly half point interest rate. The low
(41:43):
was pretty much six point five in the high was
seven until last week, right, and then last week we
started dropping a lot lower.
Speaker 4 (41:52):
We've had I think the reason it's kind of news
now Jim is like, I'm just looking at we've had
pretty much two months now of eight rental reductions. Right,
So two months ago we're at six point seven five, right,
six point seventy five, and we've gone down now to
six point three five. So it's what's that, Johnny point
four point four. I'm going to call it a half
(42:13):
a percent, we'll call it a half, call it a half.
So basically going down a half percent in a two
month period, which has been big news if you're actively
shopping or perhaps even actively getting into contract or maybe
even already locked in a month ago or two months ago,
and now you're looking at a float down like this
is the type of movement where you can kind of
renegotiate your rate based on market movement. So we're looking
(42:36):
at that for people who are locked. But that's been
a headline. But yeah, I agree, it's been a year.
We're basically right where we were a year ago as
far as rates go. Now, don't look too closely at
that chart because you'll you'll see there was a dip
leading into September.
Speaker 5 (42:51):
And it went up dramatically.
Speaker 4 (42:53):
And remember last September of the FED dropped point five right,
and then some that point five, Jim, what was the
deal that back then? It like wasn't enough or it
was more than people thought a quarter people.
Speaker 5 (43:06):
Thought it was going to be a quarter in two
point five everybody went wow, why Yeah, they.
Speaker 4 (43:11):
Were like wait a second, why And then like you know,
then that from September October November, the rates all the
way through January kind of crept back up a little bit.
So if you're thinking that pattern is going to repeat,
it kind of looks that way right now as we're leading,
we're dropping in anticipation of the Fed doing something right.
Speaker 5 (43:32):
We're not talking about that right now. Okay, okay, but
work with You're you're on point on everything. But I
just want to keep on the interest rates a little
bit longer, Mic, if you don't mind.
Speaker 4 (43:41):
Yeah, oh, you're talking about the economy.
Speaker 5 (43:42):
Yeah, because now you're heading into like what you know,
what happened? But you're all right, all of that happened,
and we did have a dramatic increase. I'd like to
use the number we were at six eight four. We
were at six eight four July.
Speaker 2 (43:59):
July.
Speaker 5 (44:00):
I'm sorry, hold on, no, wait, we were six eight
four in November, right, So we dropped almost a half
a point from November. Right, So like if you were
buying in November of last year, we are a half
point below that right now, right, So, and a half
point does save you money and it gives you more
(44:22):
purchasing power and everything. But unless you're really really super
tight on your budget, the half point for most people
isn't going to make or break, is that true? Mic
when you normally go to people's files.
Speaker 2 (44:34):
So.
Speaker 4 (44:37):
You have to be at an extreme of what you
qualify for. Right, So, when you're getting preprooved for a mortgage,
you're getting I proved for a mortgage underwritten for mortgage,
you have a maximum payment that you will qualify for,
so right the p T I right, you have a
max there. That's your limit, not a proof for a
loan amount, you know, not prof for a purchase price,
or proof for a monthly payment based on your debt
to income ratio traditionally right. So, so if you're at
(45:01):
the extreme, let's say you qualify for thirty five twenty
seven a month, right, I'm talking it gets that specific.
If you're at that extreme, half a point on the
interest rate, of course is a you know can bring
you from above your limit to below your limit, Similarly
to having the insurance number, fifty dollars less a month
(45:23):
could bring you above or below your limit. Sure, so
it is important if you're.
Speaker 5 (45:31):
To most people in today's market, Let's say, over the
last two years, are most people maxim out what they
can do, like really get up to that razor edge
of their maximum approval? Or most people or can like.
Speaker 4 (45:47):
I would say no, And I would say that most
people to me are running into their own budget constraint
before they're hitting my mortgage limit.
Speaker 5 (45:58):
So they're saying, like, let's say they're approved for thirty
eight hundred a month, but in their mind they don't
want to pay a penny more than thirty four exactly,
And then they get thirty four seventy five, and they
just because they know their budget well, they just feel
that seventy five dollars a month isn't going to make it,
although the bank will give them the money, right right,
And I think, and that's smart, that's not I'm not.
I just want to make people understand that when me
(46:20):
and Mike are talking about this, we're not trying to
get you up to a number that if you feel
the line in sand's thirty four hundred in that example,
stick to your line in the sand. We're not going
to try and convince you otherwise, we don't know your
lifestyle and all the needs that you have.
Speaker 4 (46:33):
When I talk to people, when I have my initial consultation,
you know, ten to fifteen minute phone call where I'm
kind of like explaining the process gathering initial information on
that particular aspect. They tell people like, you know, what
you qualify for and what you can afford are two
different numbers and bringing it down to a monthly payment. Right,
(46:55):
So I'm you know, have you thought about where you
want to be from a budget perspective? What are you
paying now? Are you renting? Like? What do you pay now?
How does that fit your goals as far as being
able to save money every month or you tight every
you know whatever. So people have different you know, they're
usually different stages in their life as far as answering
that question. But most people have some idea of what
they think they can afford. And I say, well, what
(47:18):
you qualify for is my world. What you can afford
that's kind of that's your world. I want my number
to be higher than your number, not because I want
you to go crazy and push up on your budget.
You might have to push up on your budget to
get the right house, but I want you in control
of where you draw that line and the opposite where
I'm the one who's the lower of those two numbers.
(47:40):
That's a tricky one because then people are basically having
to cut back on what they can buy in order
to get a loan that qualifies. When they know, like, hey,
I can pay thirty eight hundred a month, but you
only got me qualified for thirty two And I say, well, yeah,
so you know, can we figure that out? How do
you get? You know, get?
Speaker 5 (47:57):
And that's that's very common, like with self employed right sure,
you know, based on what they've turned in over the
years or over the past two years.
Speaker 4 (48:06):
It could be saying I'm paying thirty eight hundred right
now a month. I'm fine, I've never missed a payment.
Doesn't that count for something?
Speaker 5 (48:11):
I'm like, although it does a little bit now, right
I was. We never talked about that. They said that
rental history now can be used for credit. Did you ever?
We never talked about it on the show. That was
like two months ago, three months ago. I forgot about it.
Speaker 4 (48:26):
So it has to do with automated underwriting.
Speaker 5 (48:29):
M H.
Speaker 4 (48:31):
I don't know how deep you want me to get
into it well this topic, but let's just say that
there's a computer analysis of whether your loan will be
meets the guidelines, so underwriting approval. But it's an automated
underwriting approval. So essentially you have an application. This is
when people talk about, like, if you've been in this world,
people talk about the DU right, the desktop underwriter. That's
(48:52):
Fanny Maze product for automated underwriting. Freddie Mac has one
called LP your Loan Prospectors Rights, the d U or LP.
That essentially means like we run it. We put your
details into the application. Forget about the documentation, just the
information on your application. You run that through the system.
It looks at your credit, it looks at your income,
(49:13):
it looks at your cash position, all based on what's
on the application, and it basically says, yes, this loan
meets the guidelines, it's going to be approved, and then
you know, gather these documents. Right, so it's kind of
like a framework for underwriting the loan. If you're on
and there's some assessment in there, right, there's some algorithmic
risk assessment happening. So it's not only you know, do
(49:36):
you meet the guidelines minimum, but also let's take a
little bit of risk analysis on your credit profile. For example,
that your example or earlier is a good one where
just having a credit score isn't going to be enough.
You need the credit score and probably some time to
kind of let your poor credit history be less impressed
to it. Right, because the automated underwriting, Like you can't
get automated underwriting if you don't have the right score.
(49:58):
But you also can't get that risk analysis that the
computer model does unless you have the credit score you need.
So it's like which comes first, right, So if you
are on the edge, like where you have these negative factors,
but these positive factors the rental history, a positive rental
(50:19):
history can be included kind of on the positive side
of the ledger and can be the difference between getting
approved that a certain ratio versus not getting approved. So
let's say your max that to incum is fifty percent,
Well you're not getting approved the fifty percent, but you
can get approved to forty three percent. Well if you
put in the positive credit history maybe now I mean
the positive rental history, meaning like Hey, you actually do
(50:42):
pay your housing obligation on time, you don't have any
problem with that that might allow you to get over
that threshold. Wher you're now getting approved at fifty DTIs.
Speaker 5 (50:49):
Well, listen, as good as I was hoping, But it's
better than nothing, because I have a lot of people
that when they're renters and they feel like when they're
having problems with their credit to try to get qualified,
they're like, you know, I've been a perfect rental payer.
Yeah for a very very long time. Doesn't that count
for anything? And now it does a little bit.
Speaker 4 (51:08):
That's the other thing is like you can do the
Vanguard's scoring model, I think is probably what you were
thinking about. Is like traditionally, your housing history, unless you're
paying a mortgage, doesn't get assessed as part of your
credit profile log. Right, It's like you're because you were
never lent money. Right. The credit scoring is all about
you borrowed money in one capacity and now you've paid,
(51:30):
you're paying it back per the terms that you agreed to.
That makes you a good credit risk, Right, Like Jim,
you borrow money from me, but you paid me back
how we agreed. When you rent, there's no borrowing of money, right,
so there.
Speaker 5 (51:43):
Is a payment service basically your.
Speaker 4 (51:46):
So it hasn't been in the traditional credit assessment because
you didn't borrow any money, nobody loans you money. So
the Vanguard one will take that into accounts. So maybe
you get a different score that does include your housing history.
Even though you didn't have a mortgage, you have a
housing history that means you pay your bills on time,
so that there's that as well. The Vanguard scoring model
(52:08):
versus the fight go perfect.
Speaker 5 (52:11):
Let's go ahead and take a break. Is that okay?
Speaker 4 (52:13):
Ready?
Speaker 5 (52:14):
We were gonna flip and get a little more into
how the economy affects what we're talking about with the
interest rates and what's gonna happen in the future. There's
a lot of big, big headlines that are out there.
I want to kind of set an expectation for people
for real about what's happening in the headlines versus what's
probably gonna happen. And we're gonna get into all that next.
Speaker 2 (52:35):
Perfect, we still had an hour remaining on this Saturday.
Of course, we'll get you up into the locker room.
I assume the locker room is live today. Jimmythy, do
you know otherwise.
Speaker 3 (52:44):
Sure is coming on at eleven o'clock perfect, and we
got a little Florida Gator action too at starting at
four point thirty.
Speaker 2 (52:50):
Today, beautiful. We are a home of Florida Gator football
here at ROW Radio, have been for years and hopefully
will continue to be for many year to come. We
got an hour it on this Saturday, September thirteenth, So
stick around. Lots of very valuable information coming up, and
always remember Florida talkreal Estate dot Com. You're one stop
real estate shop when you need pros pros. If you're
(53:12):
buying a home, selling a home, stuck with a home,
you don't know what to do, go to Florida Talkrealestate
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(53:32):
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And that's a beautiful thing to have a resource like
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(53:53):
be a four minute wait and we're back at it
on a Saturday, Florida Talk real Estate right here on
Real Radio.
Speaker 1 (54:12):
This is Florida Talk real Estate with Jim Depola and
Johnny C. Got a question for the show. Call us
Live at one eight seven seven nine two seven sixty
nine sixty nine.
Speaker 2 (54:22):
Harry is here.
Speaker 3 (54:23):
He am almost already sitting back down, putting the headphones on.
Speaker 2 (54:27):
Johnny See on the back impeggable timing there. It was, yeah,
and I'm sitting there pacing the whole time. I'm like,
I'm gonna go, gosh, it's supposed to be ten or
less over here. Kicks having to beauty Jimmie, Thank you
very much, Thank you, Johnny good see, buddy, always a pleasure,
Johnny C. That's me. Mikerow is right here. He's the
(54:48):
mortgage guy from the mortgage firm.
Speaker 4 (54:50):
Hello Michael, Hello, Hello, good morning.
Speaker 2 (54:52):
Good morning to you as well. And of course our
fearless leader as Jimmy D. He's been running a top
producing Keller Williams team for thirty team plus years now,
the Florida Homepros team at Caliowornias Innovations. Jimmy D, jim Depol,
how you be.
Speaker 5 (55:05):
Hey, I'm doing good. I'm doing good. Guys. Uh, really
happy Saturday. And we're just getting into now a little
bit about what's going on with the economy and how
it relates to the real estate market. Of course, the
number one thing you read about in the economy when
it comes to housing is the FED gonna cut the
(55:28):
rates next week, right, That's the big thing. And for
months and months and months, the Fed has since the
beginning of the year, the Feder has refused to make cuts.
Everybody thought we would be at three percent for the
FED rate right now and we're at like four point
twenty five. Because they thought we were going to cut
in the spring, you know, this year, and that didn't
(55:52):
happen because of the tariffs. According to the Fed, they
were worried about the tariffs and the unpredictability of what
that was gonna happen, and they had just pushed down inflation.
It took them. I don't know, was it eighteen months
or like a year, Johnny for them to get from
nine percent to that under three percent inflation. I felt
like eighteen months is too long. I don't remember if
(56:15):
it was like a year or eighteen months, but it
took it took quite a while from us to get
to beat down that inflation that we had, and we
hadn't seen inflation at nine percent and I don't know
how long, so it took him a while to beat
it down. And then they didn't want to wreck anything
because it took us so long to stop the inflation.
And then now everything's changed, so here comes. There was
(56:38):
a headline in CNN, and I know I don't like
getting red and blue about things. I just don't do that.
But I just want to reveal the source because there's
a little bit of tinge of drama in the headline.
And the headline was whiff of stagflation. Oh no, they
called it a whiff of early onset stagflation is what
(56:59):
three was. It's pretty new, so you could look it
up if you want to read it yourself. But what
they're saying is, and this is what I said last
week before I read these headlines, is hey, inflation is
starting to spark up again. It's going up a little higher.
And then Thursday we had a reconfirmation. This Thursday, we
reconfirmation of how weaker the job market is than what
(57:25):
we've been thinking. I mean, when you read the job reports,
and we've been talking about every month now for over
a year, they were pretty strong. In twenty twenty four,
they were amazingly strong. We were getting quarter million jobs.
Remember that quarter million jobs, three hundred thousand jobs created
every month. Right Now, we found out after the readjustment
that every one of those months there were seven on average,
(57:48):
there were seventy five thousand jobs less than reported that
were created, right, seventy five thousand less. So they were
over the estimate by seventy five thousand a month, right,
which is a lot of jobs. Right. That's a half
a percent on unemployment if you had it all together.
So now what we have is we have increasing inflation
(58:11):
and we have increasing unemployment. Because the unemployment job claims
came out on Thursday and it was the highest spike
that we've had since I think twenty twenty one or
twenty twenty and we had two hundred and sixty three
thousand new job claims, which is about twenty seven thousand
(58:32):
more people applying for first time unemployment claims compared to
the week before, right, so, or week before the week
before right, not year over year, but the week before so.
What we might you know?
Speaker 2 (58:47):
When I read these numbers, I didn't know how to
totally consume them. Is twenty seven thousand new unemployment claims
in a week? Is that? Is that a big blow?
It doesn't feel like a big number to me, but
I I don't know. I'm kind of ignorant to what
the scope of what a healthy introduction to the unemployment
(59:10):
claims would be. It doesn't feel like a staggeringly big
number to me, but maybe it is.
Speaker 5 (59:16):
I Can I read this? Can I read this paragraph?
Because I had the saying I had to read this
stuff like four times I went into I kind of
went wonky on this. I didn't just read the headlines
from CMBC all that headlines I was reading. I read
an article that was really good primer. I'm going to
save this article from advisor Perspectives dot com, and it's
(59:39):
really a financial visor group. But they were explaining initial
unemployment claim surge to four year high. So let me
read you this one paragraph, and it went very wonky.
It's like four pages long, a lot of really tough
reading and charts. Okay. Initial job claims measure the number
of people who file for unemployment for the first time
(01:00:00):
in a given week. In the weekending September sixth, initial
jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of two
hundred and sixty three thousand, the highest level in nearly
four years. This represents an increase of twenty seven thousand
from the previous week's figure, the largest weekly jumped since
(01:00:22):
last October. The last reading was much higher than the
forecast of two hundred and thirty five thousand, so they
thought they were going to be two hundred and thirty
five thousand jobless claims. So there's two hundred and sixty
three So this isn't the end of the world, but
it might be. This is what are we at the
beginning of a stagflation period? Is what the concern is?
Speaker 2 (01:00:44):
How long do people have after losing a job because
you can't quit a job and get unemployment, can you?
Is that more of my ignorance.
Speaker 4 (01:00:53):
You know, it's fine. I don't never can I don't
through the process, so I don't know.
Speaker 2 (01:00:58):
I don't think i've ever collecked out. I mean either
maybe once when I was much younger, but I don't
recall it.
Speaker 5 (01:01:03):
I've never done it.
Speaker 2 (01:01:04):
I have always and again this is my ignorance to it.
But I've always thought you had to you had to
be laid off and go like downsized in some way,
and then and what's the timeline for you to collect?
Because this doesn't mean these people just lost their jobs.
They could have been unemployed or underemployed for a long
time now from my perspective, and then said, you know what,
(01:01:25):
I got to give this money. I'm starting to fall behind.
Let me get on unemployment. Unless there people, unless there's
a timeline where you have to file.
Speaker 4 (01:01:32):
I'm looking at a chart right now, and it's a
week over week number, so it's almost like our Freddy
so who knows what all the reasons are, but you
have a week over week chart that you can look
at just as a baseline. So I see, Yeah, they say,
you know, it's the highest it's been all year to
(01:01:55):
sixty What is it?
Speaker 5 (01:01:57):
M sixty to sixty three two.
Speaker 4 (01:02:01):
The previous was June of this year two hundred and
fifty thousand, which is higher than last week's two hundred
and thirty five thousand. So these week over week increments,
I think that's probably, you know, an interesting number to
look at because the week prior to that only jumped
and we've from two twenty nine to two thirty six,
which happens to be lower than the two thirty five estimate,
(01:02:23):
which is kind of weird. Itix they expected it to
come down a little bit, but it jumped up. So
I don't know. It's a week over week report.
Speaker 5 (01:02:32):
It could just be a flip. It isn't a trend
week over week. You know, if you have this big
jump and it happens one time, it could go down
just as fast like next week it could happen again.
Speaker 2 (01:02:41):
Well, but I had to happen. People have to get
off unemployment, and in my mind is because there's a
timeline for it, right, It only lasts for so long
if I'm not mistaken, right, and again, I'm really ignorant
in this world. But you get a job, you're off unemployment.
So that that's got to tell me that we're going
to have all of a sudden, you know, people are
going to find jobs.
Speaker 5 (01:03:02):
And here's well, here's the problem, right because we just
had that report the week before last, right now this week.
Last week we had the report where we had seven
point one eight million jobs. It's seven point three eight
million job seekers. Well, but here that was the first
time that we ever had more people than jobs in
(01:03:23):
a very long time. We have a way and now
we have higher unemployment and less jobs.
Speaker 2 (01:03:27):
We also have a mentality problem. Too many people are like,
I'm not working for sixteen bucks an hour. I'm not
taking that thirteen dollars an hour job. It's like, you
got to get a job, and you can't hold out
for my management level all the time. You have to
go get that sixteen dollars at nineteen dollars an hour job.
The ideal of why I should make more than that,
(01:03:49):
I'm holding out for management. It's like sometimes that's the
best you can do. Right now, go get that job, right,
I think.
Speaker 5 (01:03:56):
But a lot of people were just starting that mentality
where you have to change. There has been an attitude
there were so many jobs for the amount of people.
That's why we have low unemployment that the employees. I'm
not saying it was the best, but compared to many,
many years, the employees had a gravy day for about
(01:04:17):
two years, right, a year and a half, two years
where at their salaries were increasing faster than the inflation,
which hasn't happened in a long time. And when the
salaries are increasing faster than our inflation rate, even though
our inflation rate was pretty high. So the employees had
the ability because there were so many openings and so
(01:04:38):
little employees, they could act like that, I'm not going
to take that sixteen hour dollar job. I'm going to
wait until somebody hires me for that twenty five dollars
an hour job, right, I want that management job. Whatever.
But now you're right, Johnny, it's coming to the point
where those jobs won't be is so readily available, and
they won't be as much need because the employees are
scaling back. People that have that attitude, they're probably going
(01:05:02):
to get burned because they're.
Speaker 2 (01:05:03):
Not important to deployment.
Speaker 5 (01:05:05):
Yeah, yeah, exactly, Yeah right, So, I mean, so there's
a lot of stuff going on right now. It's a
very topsy turvy economic thing, and there's so many people
that want to win. This is what's driving me crazy
about today's world is that it doesn't matter if the
economy is healthy or not. It more matters that you
(01:05:26):
want your side to win. So if the economy's good
and you're on the other side that's not in power,
then you're not going to admit that the economy is
good because you want to get back in power. And
the people that are in power, if the economy isn't
doing so good, they're not emitting it, right, if it's
getting weak or something. They don't want a min it
because they don't want to give an in to the
(01:05:47):
other side. And it doesn't matter if it's you know,
red or blue. To me, it matters do we have
a good, solid economy or we do not.
Speaker 4 (01:05:54):
I think most people it's very localized, like can I
cover my bills or yeah? And they right, like that's
the these weird like which direction is the the the
economy going and all of that. It's for most people
it's do I have a job? Am I making enough money?
(01:06:14):
Am I having to extend myself on credit? Can I
plan this vacation that I wanted? Or we're going to
have to tighten up? Right? Like that's that's where it's at.
These people who you know are looking at refinances. It's
that same question, right, These things are tight. I just
need things to get better. So what's what's happening on
main Street? Johnny, what's happening on Is it tight? It
seems like it's pretty tight. Feels tight, right, It feels
(01:06:36):
extended on credit. I talk to a lot of people
who are talking, you know.
Speaker 2 (01:06:40):
But keep spending. We have to keep spending. We have
to spending. I'm not joking that our economy depends on it. Yeah,
we have to.
Speaker 5 (01:06:48):
Now, I just I just lost it and I'm going
to find it again. But we had that report that
came out with the with the different types of products
and whether the inflation is there or not. Okay, remember
that little charret Eggs, is it up or down compared
to last month? And stuff? Right? Sure, I don't have
an in front of me right now, but the bottom
(01:07:09):
line is.
Speaker 4 (01:07:10):
Eggs are up or down.
Speaker 5 (01:07:11):
Almost all food staples are up somewhere between five percent
and twenty percent higher eggs, beef. These are things I
read yesterday. Eggs, beef, vegetables. Didn't say so much about
dairy and stuff, but a lot of food products. The
(01:07:32):
only thing that went down a little bit was energy,
like it went down one point nine percent, and restaurants,
like if you sit down at a restaurant, that went
up four percent, if fast food was five percent. School
lunches went up five point eight percent for costs, right,
and there's so much Yeah, because that's the cost too.
They actually have separate Yeah, they had the three kinds
(01:07:55):
regular restaurant, fast restaurants, like institutional places like employee yours.
Speaker 4 (01:08:00):
I'll tell you what. The school cafeteria is probably still
the cheapest place to get a meal. So if you could,
like you can't go out, you're not going out to.
Speaker 5 (01:08:09):
Well, that's the restaurant that's in the SNAP program. Now
we have the Snap program, so who knows if that's
true or not. It used to be like that, but
they just go out snap Florida's free school lunch.
Speaker 4 (01:08:20):
I'm sorry, I'm talking about for I'm talking like for
a night out. Open up the cafeteria, right.
Speaker 5 (01:08:27):
Are they cutting that out? Are they cutting out those
free lunches?
Speaker 2 (01:08:30):
Maybe? Maybe this year it's it's in place this year.
Speaker 5 (01:08:33):
Still interesting, interesting breakfast and.
Speaker 2 (01:08:35):
Free lunch for students and in the summertime, they can
go get a meal at school too. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (01:08:39):
So, so inflation is actually going up. And this is
so Now getting back to the FED and us in
real life, what does the hell doesn't mean to us? Right,
especially for the real appreciate perspective, it's yeah, headline headline
and market watch right, which is a pretty legitimate, non
(01:09:00):
biased review what's going on in the real estate market
and the economy. Don't expect mortgage rates to fall after
the Fed's interest rates cuts. And you're already seeing the
headline saying now kind of what we were saying back
in November twenty twenty three when they started the cuts,
say if they cut too much, we're going to start
seeing the interest rates go up really high. And that's
(01:09:23):
what happened. We had the fastest interest rate increase in
the history that they've recorded, Freddie Mack. We went up
three quarters of a point in four weeks after the
Fed cut the.
Speaker 4 (01:09:34):
Rate last year because they cut too much.
Speaker 5 (01:09:38):
Because and they were worried that the economy was not
doing good, and that's why they had such a severe cut.
Speaker 4 (01:09:44):
Which I mean, if you're talking about unemployment up, inflation up,
if the Fed's cutting rates, well, in the face of that.
Speaker 5 (01:09:55):
Well, that's the whole stagflation problem. So normally the way
that the FED, the FED is a blunt tool, and
what their job is is to make sure that we
have full employment or good employment and that things don't
cost too much. And the problem with that is is
that both of those things are at cross purposes. So normally,
(01:10:17):
what happens in the market if you have lower if
you have higher unemployment, normally prices naturally drop because you
have less consumer demand because people you have higher unemployment,
So what kind of corrects itself. And other times you
might have high inflation. But if you have okay, the
(01:10:39):
reason why you have inflation high inflation usually there's more
consumer demand because because we're employed better and they have
better jobs so they can pay more money, so they
raise the prices. But right now we're starting at the
beginning of a very tough period where they're not connected
to each other anymore. In the deposite direction, they're both
(01:11:01):
doing the same thing in a way, So unemployment is
starting to sneak up and inflation is starting to put up.
So the FED can't use their tools to fix both things.
They only they have to decide or we care about unemployment,
or we care about inflation. Everybody's betting that the Fed
is gonna bet next Wednesday that they're gonna cut the
rate because of the labor market. And what the Fed
(01:11:25):
has already said is it's much scarier for the labor market.
Once the labor market gets weak, it can get weak
really fast and go downhill really fast. Inflation takes longer
time to build up usually, So they're gonna favor and
type of the labor market, I think.
Speaker 4 (01:11:41):
So they are they saying they need to open up
access to money because people are gonna need money. Businesses
are gonna need money, consumers are gonna need money, so
we need to make it a little less painful for
them because we know they're coming for it.
Speaker 2 (01:11:54):
Yep.
Speaker 5 (01:11:56):
Is that the well, you know what they're trying to
do is they're trying to make money cheaper so that
businesses more than regular people, that businesses will still employ
people because we're going to have an employment problem. So
they're trying to give incentives to the business like, hey,
we're giving you cheap money, so hire that employee, right,
do something and hire that employee, create a job. We're
(01:12:19):
giving you loan money to borrow to do that and
leverage that to make more money. That's what happened with
the PPP loans during COVID. Right, they shove money at
the people with free money or cheap money, right that
they could use to keep employment going. So if they
do that, though, there's going to be a very good
risk that the inflation is going to go up much higher. Right,
(01:12:41):
the inflation is going to because if we get stronger
consumer demand because of the cheap money, just the consumers
are going to be able to get cheap money too.
It isn't just going to be the business owners.
Speaker 4 (01:12:51):
But I mean, you got to think that the I
want to say, you know, the FED chair, it's not
the FED chair, it's the border governor. The border gover
have to know, like they are egle eye on inflation.
So they have to be able to say like, okay,
well when we do this what you just predicted, like
(01:13:12):
they got to they got to be out in front
of that. They think inflation is going to go up,
are going to lower them the FED by you know,
half a point or whatever it is, and then they're
going to be watching inflation and then.
Speaker 5 (01:13:21):
What Well, that's what happened from nineteen seventy six, seventy
seven until eighty two eighty three. That's what we went through.
So how they decided to deal it with it back then?
In order they decided that inflation was worse than the unemployment,
and unemployment went sky high at that point, right, I
think they were nine percent.
Speaker 4 (01:13:44):
So they took their eye off the unemployment ball.
Speaker 5 (01:13:46):
They had to fight inflation. The inflation was so crazy,
so they they stifled the inflation by having so many
people unemployed. They couldn't buy stuff, and the businesses or
the companies had to reduce their price is to survive, right,
And but it had to be that bad. We had
to get to like super.
Speaker 4 (01:14:05):
High we saw, right, we just saw like there's another
chart here as the inflation chart, there's nine. It was
basically June of twenty twenty two, and it took a
year to get down to three. Right, So one year later,
which is where they bumped up. You know, we all
remember that rates went a little bit crazy.
Speaker 5 (01:14:23):
So even the headline of Mark where it says don't
expect mortgage rates to fall after the Fed cut rates,
here's the other sub headline, waiting for the Fed to
cut mortgage rates, Waiting for the Fed to cut so
mortgage rates will go down is a flawed idea. This
is according to a professor that specializes in real estate.
Speaker 4 (01:14:43):
Just one guy though, yeah, yeah, right, mind.
Speaker 5 (01:14:46):
But here, but here's the thing. We're one guy plus
Florida talk you're preaching. So here's the here's the thing
is that this is what we wanted to bring it
back to real world. You already got your cuts people,
if you're waiting when you get those headlines next week
saying the Fed cut the rate a quarter point or
(01:15:06):
even a half point, they're saying in this article on
market Watch that we've already got the FED cut rate
built in and the last time and they said, if
the Fed cuts the rate of half a point, we
may go through that same cycle we did last year,
where this rate right now is the lowest we're going
to get, and if the Fed cuts a half a point,
(01:15:26):
it might start edging up again. Now it might not
shoot up, but the.
Speaker 4 (01:15:30):
Last year they were expecting a quarter and they came
out with a half, So now everyone's expecting a half.
I don't think it's going to be three quarter. So
maybe it's like, okay, they do you.
Speaker 5 (01:15:39):
Think I didn't catch that. Do you think most people
are a half now, Mike, because I thought it was
conventional wisdom was a quarter.
Speaker 4 (01:15:45):
I've heard half.
Speaker 5 (01:15:46):
Oh you've heard half experts?
Speaker 4 (01:15:48):
Do I you know that I can tell you this much?
I mean, Johnny, is it a coincidence that we've gone
down almost a half a point in the last two months?
Is that a coinketing?
Speaker 2 (01:16:02):
I would say it's very possible that it could be
a coincidence, right, But also just be like summertime, it
feels very summer. It feels very likely that they're built in.
You just paid attention to.
Speaker 4 (01:16:13):
Your point, Jim, Like, if you're waiting for the Fed
to do their thing, well, you missed the boat, right.
We've talked about this, like if you're waiting for rates
to get better, and that's like in your mind, hey,
rates got to get better. You might have some benchmark,
maybe you're not even there. Maybe six and a half
or six and a quarter, isn't it. Maybe you need
to be four something, right, that's fine. But if you've
been waiting, kind of waiting in the wings for the
(01:16:35):
stars to align where you need rates to get a
little bit better, You need prices to get a little
bit more you know in your favor, you need negotiation,
Like right now you're on the leading edge of that,
because it's possible you've already been that for You've already
got half a point movement that you were hoping for
(01:16:56):
right here. Now is the time to do that. Next week,
if anything, we could see it stay flat. But it
ain't going down another half a point. We're not going
to be a five point seventy five two weeks from now, right.
I wouldn't predict that.
Speaker 5 (01:17:12):
No, no, no, if that happens, That's what I'm ting. That's
the other thing I want to people. When people say
they want to be under five or something, the first
thing I say to them, Oh, you want a COVID economy.
Oh right, because that's why we went down to those
super low rates in the threes and even the twos.
Speaker 4 (01:17:29):
You might want a COVID economy if you are, you
got a lot of equity, you're ready to transition to
retirement or to make that move, and you want to
sell high and then take your money and buy low
and downsize with it.
Speaker 5 (01:17:41):
But what I'm saying is the country has to be
an economic crisis to get down to those levels again.
So that's what you're hoping for if you're asking for
those super low rates and not reasonable rates. And rates
have gotten more reasonable. The prices have gotten softer, and
the sellers have gotten more motivated. The sellers have gotten softer,
the prices of that sealest, Yeah, the price of gotten softer,
(01:18:04):
and the sellers have become more motivated in general. And
also what we've seen is here's another trend I wanted
to bring up. You know how we've been looking at
all the properties for sale and the MLS, and we
started out in the high mid to high forties, and
we got all the way up to sixty two or
sixty five thousand. We're at fifty seven thousand now. So
what that means is it isn't that we've had a
(01:18:26):
tremendous amount of sales, because sales are still slow. We're
down about twenty five percent from the average normal sales.
But what's happened is all the unmotivated sellers or a
lot of them have pulled out of the market. Has
said if I can't get what I want from my house,
I'm not selling it. So now we have more serious
sellers out there, like a pool, a more concentrated pool
(01:18:48):
of serious sellers. Right, So this is the perfect storm
for buyers to come in and get what they want,
unless you're waiting for a crisis where you you know,
you see house pricing houses, house price icing tumble twenty
five percent or something. Right. But if that's something like
that were to happen, or if we get to our
interest rates into like you know, low fives or even
(01:19:10):
high fours, it's because a lot of people are unemployed, guys,
and you won't be able to buy the house. There'll
be so many people unemployed. A lot of those people
that are waiting, they might become squatters, part of the
unemployed group, and not be able to buy buy anything.
Speaker 4 (01:19:24):
That home that's been for sale for six months, all
of a sudden it has squatters. I'll tell you what.
We talked about it all the time. What you're waiting for, guys,
is a payment that works right budget.
Speaker 5 (01:19:35):
Right, So so don't try to outsmart yourself.
Speaker 4 (01:19:40):
Those stars may be aligning, that's the whole point. They
may be, they may not be. Might you might still
just be blown out of the water as far as
prices and where your payment's going to land. And that's okay.
As long as you know that, as long as you
know Johnny, you come to me say Mike, I gotta
be at twenty eight hundred dollars a month, no more
than that or whatever your number is, and we say, yes,
that's fine, you can do that. Now you not sit back,
(01:20:03):
but you're kind of leaning back, watching and you're looking
at certain things, and you're looking at neighborhoods, and you're
looking at price points, and you're looking at a payment
estimator that's accurate. Those stars might be aligning and it
might be now ish versus next month, for example.
Speaker 2 (01:20:24):
But you don't But you won't know that unless you know,
unless you have access to that information, those numbers.
Speaker 4 (01:20:32):
And do some staging.
Speaker 5 (01:20:33):
And here's another indicator that things could turn against the
buyers right that people aren't noticing. I read a report yesterday.
I'm sure it came out a lot of places. We
had the biggest surge of home buyer applications last week
compared to like the last two years or something. It
was like there were a long time, maybe not two years.
Speaker 4 (01:20:56):
I didn't see that on my personal level, or even
my the branch level. I don't think I saw that.
Speaker 5 (01:21:01):
Hey, that's what I wanted to say, where all the
buyers from Florida talk real estate. I'm not We put
out so many emails over the last several weeks telling buyers, look,
you got to give us a call. If you think
about it, it's crickets chripping, right, we're all the buyers
because I'm not seeing the athlete, you know, people going
to me, Hey, it's time for me to buy a house. Anyway.
I'm a little frustrated about that because I'm seeing the
(01:21:23):
national like, wait a second, I am I being left
out right now.
Speaker 2 (01:21:27):
It might be in the States where people feel like
that's where they want to be, and I don't know
that Florida quite holds that clout anymore. It just doesn't.
It's not that everybody's going to anymore. It's Texas, It's Tennessee,
you know what I mean, It's the Carolina still.
Speaker 4 (01:21:42):
It's also like schools back and said, we have these normal,
like seasonal cycles. Right, It's a little bit different in
Florida because we don't have the extreme changes, but it's
like normal that the end of summer things slow down,
like that's just normal. Jim, am I wrong about that?
Like things?
Speaker 5 (01:22:00):
Yeah, but if the rest of the nation is having
a youth surgeon, we're not getting any or I shouldn't
say we're not getting anything, but I'm really surprised that
our you know, our listeners and our demographic, they're not
picking up the bus. It's time for me to do something.
Speaker 4 (01:22:12):
I'm so desensitized to these the headlines right, like the headlines. Oh,
I know, it's like it's so chasing the lead or
whatever they call that, like it's it's just leth.
Speaker 5 (01:22:23):
But let me, let me explain what could be happening
for buyers that might get them say okay, I gotta
do it now. Right, you have shrinking inventory. That's not
good for buyers in general, right, because that turns into
more of a buyer's a seller's market. But we're still
but we also have it. Yes, we're still in a
buyer's market, but we have shrinking invatory. The indicators are
(01:22:45):
right now shrinking inventory, which's been happening for months, and
now we have surge of buyers coming through for applications
because going to so now what's going to happen. You're
going to have a lot of buyers looking at less
properties and now you're going to be. It isn't going
to be like it is today where you can negotiate
as good as you can today. If the house is hot,
(01:23:06):
you're going to be competing with people again, and we
haven't had that in a very long time.
Speaker 4 (01:23:10):
I just think you have to be like if you
want to win, right, you talked about that people want
to win, You can't not be prepared, right. You have
to do some minimal prep if you want to be
able to find the right thing and get a good
deal on it. Right Where the the the setup here
(01:23:31):
is that you are a buyer I meaning you're ready.
You've you're at a point in your life where like
buying your house, this next house, whatever it does makes sense.
Now you're just waiting for those those conditions to be
right so you feel good about the deal that you're getting.
You don't want to be like pressured into it. Like
you've got some time, you can be patient, Well, do
some do get yourself set up so that you can
(01:23:53):
take advantage when it hits like this is what we're
talking about. If rates come down, the natural is inventory
is going to decrease. Right late rates come down, buyers
come out, especially buyers who have been waiting they come out,
more buyers, less inventory. You're not gonna be able to
get what you want on the price of the home
the negotiations with the sellers. So yeah, you might have
(01:24:14):
won on the rate, but you might have lost on
price essentially, right, So you can't there's no way to
be that winner unless you've done the prep work. The
groundwork puts yourself in a position where you can pull
the trigger when the opportunity presents itself.
Speaker 2 (01:24:35):
Facts. Yeah, eight seven seven nine two seven six nine
six nine. Plenty of time remaining on this Saturday, about
twenty three minutes or so. If you'd like to be
a part of the conversation, if you have a question,
a common a concern about the conversation, don't be shy.
Still plenty of time remaining. Of course, if you're not
comfortable on the radio. Always remember Florida Talkrealestate dot com.
You're one stop real estate shop, all the pros pros
(01:24:57):
in one place, Florida Talk real Estate Com.
Speaker 5 (01:25:00):
Thank you, Johnny. I figured we just messed around a
little bit on the MLS just to have a little
bit of fun today. So we have fifty.
Speaker 4 (01:25:07):
Seven Yeah, right, real estates messed around on the MLS. Yeah,
last party.
Speaker 5 (01:25:15):
We have a party, Like, we have fifty seven thousand
homes for sale in the general MLS. Now, there are
homes like in Jacksonville and out of country and stuff
that are are like sprinkled into this thing. So I
wanted to narrow down. So out of the fifty seven thousand,
twelve thousand of them are in Palm Beach County now,
(01:25:38):
not single family homes, all homes, right, So now I'm
going to go into single family homes in Palm Beach County.
Hold on here, one suck it. And out of those
twelve thousand, only forty eight hundred or single family homes.
So we have five thousand, four thousand, eight hundred and
(01:25:58):
ninety eight single family homes available for sale in pom
Beach County right now. I'm just picking that county.
Speaker 2 (01:26:03):
The rest is.
Speaker 5 (01:26:04):
Condos, condos, townhomes, mobile homes, land you know, to be
all in that family single family no townhome is a
separate category. Villa. So the categories are villa, single family, townhome, condo,
mobile home, manufactured home is one category, and then I
(01:26:24):
think land. I think those are the five. They don't
really have commercial by land, right, they don't really have
commercial in there that much. Okay, So out of the
forty eight thousand homes, I'm just curious, what's the cheapest
pomp Beach County home for sale right now? I thought
that would be the cheapest. Yeah, the lowest price home
in Palm Beach County right now.
Speaker 4 (01:26:46):
Thirty nine thousand.
Speaker 2 (01:26:47):
Yeah. I was going to say, there's some there's some
sweetheart in the glade. Yeah, it's seventy two thousand dollars.
Speaker 3 (01:26:55):
Okay, say, because I'm thinking along those condo, No condos, right.
Speaker 5 (01:27:04):
Just single family home for this category.
Speaker 3 (01:27:06):
Right, and what is that mobile home too, because that.
Speaker 5 (01:27:08):
No, just single family, single family Okay, So let's say, okay,
so Johnny, you're you get uh an a an a
for that seventy thousand, not seventy two. Yeah, seventy thousand.
It was Yeah, he did go over, but still that's
pretty good. So seventy seventy thousand. It's an eight hundred
(01:27:31):
square foot nineteen forty five wood frame home, eight hundred
square feet, one bedroom, one baths in Bell Glade. Yeah,
seventy thousand dollars. And they're saying that it's good for
a fixer upper or just tear it down and build
something new.
Speaker 4 (01:27:45):
Is that the one that's built on the sinkhole?
Speaker 5 (01:27:47):
Yeah, exactly right, but it is. It's funny. It is lifted,
you know those old houses, because there's so much luck
out there. So it's on stilt. It's only up like
you know, it's a couple of center blocks high, but
it's lifted, so it's the wood floor joists and you
can crawl underneath. And the reason why they build a
lot of this house out there because the muck out
there the is so great for sugarcane and everything.
Speaker 4 (01:28:09):
It's not good for building. It is very so just
every few years you jack up the house and put
another center.
Speaker 5 (01:28:17):
You go get your carjack.
Speaker 4 (01:28:19):
I'm excited about that price.
Speaker 2 (01:28:23):
Still.
Speaker 5 (01:28:24):
So here's but here's here's kind of something interesting question though,
So what do you think the second lowest price would be?
If seventy is the lowest and there's forty eight hundred
homes for sale, what do you think the second lowest
price would be?
Speaker 3 (01:28:37):
Seventy thousand and one?
Speaker 4 (01:28:39):
I started thirty nine. I'm gonna say one thirty nine.
Speaker 5 (01:28:41):
Okay, oh yeah, I was going one. Well, you guys
are good that you went up jumped a lot higher
than the seventy because it wasn't like seventy thousand and one.
It's one hundred and five thousand. Okay, So this one
hundred and five thousand home is on eighth Street in
Lake whar It's a one bedroom, one bath, eight hundred
(01:29:02):
and sixty square feet. It was built in nineteen twenty five, right,
so the house is one hundred years old years old.
It's boarded up. They don't have any pictures on the inside.
It's only been on the market three days. If you're
interested in one hundred and five thousand dollars home, it's
in downtown.
Speaker 4 (01:29:19):
Let's gonna say location, location, location, as well as like
George Burns.
Speaker 5 (01:29:23):
Like this one. This one's actually is pretty close to Federal,
not Dixie is close to Federal, which is a little
farther east than I would expect. But anyway, uh, anyway,
that the one hundred and five, and then after that
then it becomes like, and here's the next thing, the.
Speaker 2 (01:29:41):
Third How long is that has one on the market?
Speaker 5 (01:29:43):
This one's good question. This one's been on the market.
Let me changed the view. This one's been on the market.
Hold on, just bear with me.
Speaker 2 (01:29:52):
Florida Talk real Estate dot Com. Thank you Johnny real
Estate Shop.
Speaker 5 (01:29:56):
This one has been wait, it changed everyth.
Speaker 4 (01:30:01):
It says on market, Jim, No, they.
Speaker 2 (01:30:05):
Changed all the vocalized navigation.
Speaker 5 (01:30:08):
Three it's only been on the market. No, Yeah, that
one's only been on the market three days. The Bell
Glade's been on the market one hundred and seventeen Okay, okay.
Now the third one, and this is a very good
lesson for sellers. The third lowest price home in Palm
Beach County for single family is a property that's a condo.
(01:30:28):
So they have it listed as a single family home.
But it's a condo and it's not it's a real condo.
It's in uh, it's in a very well known fifty
five and over community. This can't be more of a
condo than this condo, right, They have it listed wrong?
So what does that mean this poor seller? How long
(01:30:48):
has this been on the market. This poor seller has
been on the market one hundred and thirty five days, okay,
and they have it down as a single family home.
So anybody looking for a single family home is finding
this property. But anybody looking for a condo with this
price in this neighborhood is not finding this property, So
this property is not on the MLS for this seller.
(01:31:09):
Happened to them. This happens quite frequently reilters. A lot
of realtors right now are super green because a lot
of lters left because of the bad economy, and there's
a lot of brand new rilters out there are very
green relters, and they're making mistakes like this all the time.
Do you know how mad I would be were the seller?
Do you recognize I only found it? No, I don't.
Speaker 2 (01:31:31):
It is highly desirable in a lot of eyes too.
Speaker 5 (01:31:34):
Oh, you know what, Let's go ahead And you said that,
but let's go. Let's go ahead and do this.
Speaker 4 (01:31:38):
You know that you're listening to me.
Speaker 5 (01:31:41):
You know what I'm gonna do.
Speaker 2 (01:31:42):
What do you say?
Speaker 4 (01:31:43):
Condo?
Speaker 2 (01:31:45):
Village?
Speaker 5 (01:31:45):
It even says condo.
Speaker 4 (01:31:47):
When Jim says this is there's nothing more condo than
this kindo. I'm thinking like central.
Speaker 5 (01:31:51):
Village, century village. King's point, That's what I'm thinking.
Speaker 4 (01:31:55):
Visually. I'm thinking, uh uh, you know, a building on
the beach.
Speaker 2 (01:32:00):
I think Palm County epitome of like condo living. I
think century village for fifty five plus, he said, fifty
five plus though.
Speaker 5 (01:32:07):
Yeah, all right, so this person, I'm not going to
bring up names, and I'm not bringing up properties because
I'm not trying to be bad to somebody. But I'm
being real here, what's.
Speaker 4 (01:32:18):
The first name and last.
Speaker 2 (01:32:19):
Yeah, yeah, it's the address.
Speaker 5 (01:32:23):
I'm just scanning for him because he's got a very
common name. Almost there.
Speaker 4 (01:32:26):
There might be a reason. How do you stand out
from the crowd You make a huge mistake in your listening?
Speaker 2 (01:32:34):
Well you definitely, that's the opposite. I think.
Speaker 4 (01:32:36):
See the Century Village is a little funky because they
are kind of single family homes, like you think about them, right,
They're not like in a building, people above you, people below,
people on the side.
Speaker 5 (01:32:48):
This agent, this agent of them below the station is.
Speaker 4 (01:32:53):
I don't know. Is that Century Village a two floor unit?
Most of most of those units. I thought it was
single family like.
Speaker 5 (01:32:59):
No the off flats, Yeah nobody. Uh you know, they're
in multif multi story buildings, just like regular condos, just
like you, just like your mom's place. But six thousand
units in the I only know.
Speaker 2 (01:33:11):
That they went two stories. They go higher than two.
Speaker 5 (01:33:13):
Stories, some of them go through. Okay, so so this
this person, I have to give this person credit there.
They're in production, they have retirement, they have a you know,
they they're definitely in production, this agent. But they have
three closings and they've got seventeen listings and days on market.
(01:33:37):
It's all over the place. I can't complain because my
days on market have been great either lately. You know,
it's part of the market.
Speaker 2 (01:33:42):
It's the market.
Speaker 5 (01:33:43):
But this guy made a big mistake. Of course, I'm
going to reach out to him, let them know how
you made a big mistake, and trying to let him know.
But a lot of people don't do that.
Speaker 4 (01:33:51):
He can blame his people.
Speaker 5 (01:33:53):
It could just be as busy.
Speaker 4 (01:33:54):
He might have his nancy that never makes mistakes.
Speaker 5 (01:33:57):
But I see this stuff all the time. Like if
you see this stuff all the time. Now, just out
of curiosity, we're going to go flip side. Now, just
beer with me. We're going to go most expensive house
in Palm Beach County. Oh, we're going to go completely opposite.
So we're going from seventy thousand and bill late all
the way to the house, yep, all the way.
Speaker 4 (01:34:16):
So can I ask you, Jim, just real quick before
you get that, is it a good strategy. So instead
of like sitting down with you and like figuring out bedrooms,
bathrooms and town can I just go in and just
sort it like descending, and I just start at the
very cheapest and then work my way to find the
home that I want.
Speaker 5 (01:34:32):
That's how I usually do when I'm doing an investment.
I set up my search and I find I start
off with the cheapest home and then I go up right.
So that's how I do it. A buyer should do
that too, if they know exactly what they want, you know,
or if you're not sure, you want to get a flavor,
you know, start out. I always let's see.
Speaker 4 (01:34:49):
It, like, say I need three bedrooms, two bathrooms, at
least put that in there.
Speaker 5 (01:34:53):
So let's say somebody's looking for a three bedroom, two
bath in Wellington and they want to pay five hundred.
I'm just making up which is a little bit lower
price point for Wellington. Right, there's still a lot of
properties for sale and Wellington at five hundred. But let's
say that's what you're looking for. What I would do
if I were doing the search, Mike is I would
not go from like put it from four hundred, you know,
(01:35:14):
four hundred or more and then cap at it five hundred. Right,
what I would do is five hundred or less, because
you might end up finding a deal at three eighty
five that you totally are in love with that needs
fixing up er, that needs fixing up er, and you're
willing to do for that home at that property in
that neighborhood because it's just perfect year. It's like, I'll
(01:35:36):
go ahead and do the fixing up as opposed to
looking for the more ready to go house that's closer
to your five hundred thousand dollars budget. And you would
never see that three eighty five home if you didn't
bring it down to zero.
Speaker 4 (01:35:49):
You could also top it out at like five point fifty.
You just think, like, what happens if there's that five
eighteen property, Well, you know what I to missing?
Speaker 5 (01:35:55):
Very good, very good thing. So somebody, if you give me,
somebody is qualified for five five hundred. What I normally
do in today's market is set the search up for
five point fifty, not because I'm trying to get the
buyer to upsell, but because five point fifty we might
be able to get it to five hundred in the negotiation.
Speaker 4 (01:36:13):
It's been on the market for one hundred and twenty days.
Speaker 5 (01:36:14):
But in a hot market, if you're good for five hundred,
and we're in that COVID frenzied market thing, if you're
good for five hundred, I'm not putting the search above
five hundred because at five hundred you're probably paying five ten,
five point fifteen, five twenty five in that market. So
I'll set it a five hundred, and we're hoping that
will be that you can get it for that. Really,
(01:36:37):
you're going to probably buy a property for four to
seventy five and offer five hundred in a top market,
which just shows you the difference. This is real life
difference of what we were just talking about in that
last segment, right, you know what I mean? Real life example.
So which city I'm not going to ask you, well,
I'm going to ask your price. First. What's the most
expensive home for sale in Palm Beach County? Right now?
Speaker 4 (01:37:00):
It's got to be on Jupiter Island?
Speaker 5 (01:37:03):
Oh yeah, but how much? First? I changed my mind?
How much? What do you think is the price?
Speaker 4 (01:37:10):
One hundred and thirty nine million?
Speaker 5 (01:37:12):
Okay?
Speaker 2 (01:37:14):
How much was that one that sold last year? On?
It was one eighties?
Speaker 4 (01:37:20):
Is that right? Something like that Yeah, a million, currently
nine million.
Speaker 5 (01:37:25):
Yeah, this is currently for sale, currently for sale.
Speaker 3 (01:37:28):
I'm going to say ten million, but I'm probably.
Speaker 5 (01:37:29):
Ten ten million, one hundred and twenty million, two hundred
and eighty five million, one.
Speaker 2 (01:37:39):
Hundred million, A record sale last year. That was like
a record sale last year.
Speaker 5 (01:37:44):
No, what's what city is it in.
Speaker 2 (01:37:48):
That same one, Tarpen Springs or whatever? It is that
same island.
Speaker 4 (01:37:54):
I was gonna say Jupiter Island. Don't know if that's
a city or not.
Speaker 5 (01:37:58):
I don't know each in I thought most people, if
you ask them, I think, be regular people. Everybody says
Palm Beach, right because they think of Moro Lago and
it is super rich over there, right. But Manalapan and
Manalopan is on, I think it might be more. I
think the highest per capita income or per capita house
(01:38:18):
is Jupiter Isles, not Palm Beach or Manalopants, but might
be changing. I think that's south of the Palm Beach Island, yes,
south Palm Beach line, yes, so Manalapans. So this house
is a fifty thousand square foot home. That's it. It's
two hundred and eighty five million, and it's been on
the market two hundred and forty days. Now, what what
(01:38:38):
does have? Right? What would be the number two home?
Just like we did seventy to one oh five? Right,
what is the second most expensive home in the county
right now?
Speaker 4 (01:38:48):
Well, it's got to be somebody keeping up with the Joness.
So I'm gonna say two No. One, one eighty nine,
two fifty five.
Speaker 5 (01:38:59):
One fifty. So the first questions you had, you guys
were closer with the second highest price, And what city
is it.
Speaker 4 (01:39:06):
In's got to be Pombychil.
Speaker 5 (01:39:10):
This one's in Manalapan, and it's right and it's right
down the road from the other one. And they both
went on the market within twenty days, so they're definitely
competing with each other market a year. But the fifty, yeah,
they've been on the market nine months for sure, and
the fifty thousand and one, the one to fifty, you're
slumming it at twenty nine and forty five square feet
(01:39:30):
and by that's, by the way, that's living square feet,
not not under roof, Okay, under roof. The second biggest house,
the twenty nine thousand is really thirty five thousand under roof.
Speaker 4 (01:39:42):
What is a monthly cost on a two hundred million
dollars for taxes. No, just like a maintenance. What do
you gotta pay every month? I have no forget about
your mortgage just to own it.
Speaker 2 (01:39:51):
I don't know if I can afford the electric bill.
Speaker 5 (01:39:55):
I know, right, I wonder you want to say, let's
see what the taxes are. Okay, let's just see what SCD.
So the twenty twenty four taxes were only three hundred
and ninety four thousand and eighteen dollars.
Speaker 2 (01:40:07):
Oh, that's bad.
Speaker 5 (01:40:08):
That's it three ninety four, right, divide that by twelve?
What's that by twelve? Min four hundred divided by twelve,
which totally limited probably twenty five. It's got like thirty five,
four hundred thirty forty thirty four thousand a month month.
Speaker 2 (01:40:21):
That's one house.
Speaker 5 (01:40:22):
Yeah, one house.
Speaker 2 (01:40:23):
Think of the money they make it probably is that?
Speaker 5 (01:40:26):
Is that crazy? So now, now the thing that's kind
of interesting. The third most expensive home on the market
right now is been on the market two hundred and
twelve DALs. It's right down the road from all these,
So all these three went on the market at the
same time. Now, this one's only eighteen thousand square feet
under air and they're only asking eighty seven million. So
(01:40:48):
look at the top three, two, eighty five, one, fifteen,
and then it drops to eighty seven. And then once
you hit eighty seven, then it starts clustering.
Speaker 4 (01:40:56):
It seems like a conspiracy over there on Manouth. Then
they're trying to get appraised values up for the neighborhood.
That's what's happening. There's no sales. But look at these
active listings, right, So these active listings per price per
square foot.
Speaker 5 (01:41:11):
So for twenty million or more, how many Palm Beach,
how many homes in Palm Beach County or for sale
that are twenty million or more? So we know the
top is two hundred and eighty five. If you go
all the way down to twenty how many homes we
have five thousand homes for soon in the county?
Speaker 4 (01:41:28):
Teez, I would say less than one hundred.
Speaker 5 (01:41:31):
You're right, Mike, eighty six eighty six homes are twenty
million or more. Actually eighty seven twenty million or more. Yeah,
So anyway, kind of interesting is like life of two worlds.
Bell Glades seventy thousand dollars, right, and Manalapan two hundred
and eighty five million, right, you gotta love the country
in It's like.
Speaker 4 (01:41:51):
Those two people could cross each other driving.
Speaker 5 (01:41:53):
On they're thirty miles away from each other, right, they're
thirty minutes, not thirty miles. Thirty minutes drive away from
each other, right, crazy? Right?
Speaker 2 (01:42:01):
Crazy?
Speaker 5 (01:42:02):
Isn't that crazy? So just to give you so, you know,
just to give you an idea the the the cheap
homes in the county, most of them are super ancient.
They're fixer uppers. Sometimes they're teardowns, things like that, you know,
so you have to keep that in mind. And also
sometimes the neighborhoods are super high crime. You know, you
(01:42:25):
have to worry about that too. Sometimes on the lower
price homes.
Speaker 2 (01:42:27):
I want to bring up something that's totally different from
the topic you're talking about, highest lowest price on the
MLS just because we're really short on time here, and
if you don't mind, I squeeze the sea please. I
find it really interesting and I'm always curious to see
how the dominoes fall and what the effects are when
things happen. So, as you know, we got into COVID,
you started to see the products every the things we're
(01:42:49):
looking for go up because of the supply chain, it was,
you know, and then things have settled in the supply chains.
Well back it's healthy again. Now we're falling into like
the uncertainty of effects of tariffs and et cetera. But
I did see that building supplies would in particular, lumber
in particular, is starting to really not just come down
(01:43:12):
a little bit, like massively come down. That in a
moment becomes an interesting component for new construction, because if
it costs a lot less to build a new home,
doesn't that put pressure on the existing homes? Like isn't
there going to be a cause and effect If you
can get your new home built considerably cheaper, Why am
(01:43:35):
I gonna buy this twenty year old house for what
you're asking.
Speaker 5 (01:43:39):
That's happening right now. It's happening right this second. So
Ports Saint lucis.
Speaker 2 (01:43:43):
Well but considerably cheaper. So as lumber gets the cost
of lumber gets slashed. Well, now I'm not I'm not
even paying for what you're asking on this home you
just built, because you can build me a new one cheaper,
because I know what your lumber costs.
Speaker 5 (01:43:55):
Now, Well, the thing is is that I don't know
where you're getting your information that's saying you're wrong. Just
but I just listened to the Prime Minister of Canada
and they give us twenty five percent of all the lumber.
We use most of it for housing, and they cut
us off completely. We're losing twenty eight million cubic feet
of wood from Canada. So that's Canada that supplies.
Speaker 2 (01:44:19):
That's a variable listening. That's a variable that was not
included in the the stats about lumber cost that I consume.
So the reality is, is lumbers cheaper, but we may
not have access to it in the in the rate
that we want.
Speaker 5 (01:44:35):
Because I think if it is cheaper, it's going to
go up because we have to fill the void. You know,
we're not. We're going to lose twenty five percent of
our inventory. So it's a supply demand thing.
Speaker 4 (01:44:46):
There also may be construction materials.
Speaker 5 (01:44:50):
Would roofing materials, roofing materials, roofing right, they might have
to switch to that. You might have to switch. Well,
that happened in the COVID thing. They couldn't get impact
slide and glass doors, so they just started they just
started put in French doors. Did that happened to.
Speaker 3 (01:45:05):
You or they were no, it didn't have us, but
I remember us we've talked about it on the show,
or we also read about it in articles.
Speaker 5 (01:45:13):
They you know, they were they.
Speaker 3 (01:45:14):
Were selling homes with without the slider even on the house.
Speaker 4 (01:45:18):
Just block it. Yeah, yeah, and you know we'll come
back when.
Speaker 5 (01:45:21):
We get we'll.
Speaker 4 (01:45:22):
Come back installid. I mean I remember talking about that.
Speaker 5 (01:45:25):
At one point you could get the sliders but not
the handles for the slider, and they were stuck. The
builders were stuck. So they just swapped them out to
French doors. And maybe they did what Jimmy said, but I.
Speaker 3 (01:45:37):
Think that they were coming up with creative ways. Well,
we got to get the sail through. We don't want
to sit on this until we get you know, the
material in, which could have been months.
Speaker 5 (01:45:47):
And Canada is also a big supply for roofing materials.
I think shingles, more shingles than like roofing like piles.
So that's another big hit to us. That's going to
be a shock to the builders. I'm thinking the building
look very down right now, so I don't.
Speaker 4 (01:46:03):
Which could be an opportunity. So I guess to Johnny's point,
if you are a buyer and new construction homes are
generally in your price zone, it's worth looking at the
may deal.
Speaker 5 (01:46:13):
Absolutely, That's why Jimmy did what he did. That's a
really smart move if you can afford the new home
and you're okay with either being in a planned community
doesn't have to be gated. Some people don't like that,
but Jimmy didn't. He bought a brand new home, brand
new construction, in a single lot and he has no
HOA fee. The builder came in and built a home
(01:46:34):
on the lot. So there are a lot of opportunities
out there for that, and especially if you're older, you
really should look at new construction versus resale. Why is
that because let's say you buy a house it's sixty
five or something, right, and you maybe your income's going
to change the next few years because you're retiring and
you have a roof that's ten years old when you
(01:46:57):
buy it.
Speaker 4 (01:46:57):
Ah, so your long term capital expenses are yeah, further.
Speaker 5 (01:47:01):
See new waters, new roof. You want to be careful
about those kinds of things.
Speaker 4 (01:47:04):
But they don't make them like they used to, jim
You know, they ac is going out in every five years, appliances.
Speaker 2 (01:47:12):
Cheese, they don't make them like they use to.
Speaker 3 (01:47:15):
I've had some expenses that I really wasn't expecting. Yeah, refrigerator,
air conditioning.
Speaker 4 (01:47:20):
You've had the replacement the new house.
Speaker 5 (01:47:24):
Yes, Oh I want to talk to you about that.
Speaker 4 (01:47:27):
What happened? What happened with the fridge?
Speaker 2 (01:47:29):
The ice maker?
Speaker 5 (01:47:31):
Oh yeah, that's kind of more of a common thing.
And I guess how much about three hundred to five hundred,
five hundred Ye yep, because that happened to me.
Speaker 4 (01:47:41):
Five dollars.
Speaker 5 (01:47:42):
But was it under warranty?
Speaker 3 (01:47:44):
Because it was over a year.
Speaker 2 (01:47:45):
You don't how many ice trains you could have bought
for five hundred bucks.
Speaker 4 (01:47:48):
For bags ice exactly? Are you just cut back on
margarita weekend? You know? You know.
Speaker 5 (01:47:55):
Now you're talking crazy way, Yeah, you're crazy.
Speaker 2 (01:47:59):
You can cut back weekend. Thank you very much for
being with us on a Saturday. Always great to know
you're out there. Remember Florida Talk real Estate is a
team of pros, pros and they are there for you
when you're buying a home, selling a home, stuck with
a home you don't know what to do. If you
need a professional that touches the world of real estate,
(01:48:20):
I got one for you, the one stop real estate shop.
It's Florida Talkrealestate dot Com on Facebook, on YouTube, consume away,
share as well, because you can change the lives with
the prospros at Florida Talkrealestate dot Com. Like Mike Row
the mortgage guy from the mortgage firm, have a great weekend,
my friend.
Speaker 4 (01:48:35):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (01:48:35):
Thanks everybody like Jimmy de over here, Jim Depolo with
the Florida Home Pros team. I hope you have a
great weekend as well. Thank you, sir, Jimmythy have an
awesome weekend, my friend.
Speaker 3 (01:48:44):
You as well, Johnny, Mike, Jim, have a great weekend
and thank you for listening.
Speaker 2 (01:48:48):
Enjoy the margueritea weekend. I hope that ice is cold, yeah,
and thank you for being with us. I saw Joe,
I saw Greek. That means they're already in a rock
and roll squeeze out of sports show. We got Gator
football this weekend. Lots to have as long as you're
sticking around, so please plan on doing that. Have a
great weekend. We'll see you next Saturday. Florida Talk Real
Estate right here on Real Radio
Navigating today's real estate market can be tricky. Wanna buyer
sola house finance, or insure a house, or stuck with
a house and don't know what to do. Florida Talk
real Estate has been your local one stop real estate
shop since twenty twelve. Get the advice you need from
your local real estate pros. Here are your hosts, Jim
Depola and Johnny c. You live on real Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Yeah, good Saturday morning. Welcome to another edition Florida Talk
real Estate. Two hours of infotainment is what we offer
up and we are live on this thirteenth of September.
Thanks for bringing out there. Whether you're tuning in on
the old terrestrial radio ninety two one one o one
seven phenomenal, Thanks for making that decision on a Saturday morning.
Maybe you're using the free download the radio app that
(00:58):
is free and makes us world wide ginormous. I know,
if you're tuning in from pockets of the earth. Thank
you for being there on a Saturday morning in South Florida.
Of course that's what we are, by the way, and
of course if you don't believe me, you can check
out the live streams Florida Talk real Estate on Facebook
Florida Talk Real Estate LLC on YouTube. That's home of
(01:21):
a ton of informational chunk videos. We live stream on
a Saturday as well. You can join us. Thanks for
being there, and if you're not there yet, always remember
you can tune in in whenever you'd like. In us well,
you can be a part of the program toll free
eight seven seven nine two seven six nine six nine.
Dial it up if you got a question, comment, concern
in the world of real estate. If you'd like to
(01:42):
be a part of the conversation at hand, don't be shy.
Dial on. In the first voice you'll hear the melodious
tones of our producer Extraordinaiy. There's my brother from another mother, Jimothy,
How the hell are you doing?
Speaker 3 (01:51):
Mighty fine, Good morning, gentlemen. Happy to be here on
a Saturday.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
Always good to see you, dude. Good to see you too, Bud.
And uh yeah, Saturday is carved off for a little
bit of this and a little bit of that, like
Jimmy over there. Yeah boy, that's me, your air traffic
Control Johnny C, your old buddy, year old pal. Let's
get to the very important people, the most important stuff,
like Mike Row he's the mortgage guy from the mortgage firm.
He's brought all kinds of important details today. How are you,
(02:17):
my friend?
Speaker 4 (02:17):
Uh, I was fine. Now I'm nervous. Oh no, I
didn't realize I was supposed to have all this information.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Oh. I thought it was because we're on the radio.
Speaker 4 (02:25):
Oh, like I should have some content.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Yeah, now I'm nervous.
Speaker 4 (02:29):
Professional real estate.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Yeah, yeah, you're loaded with content. We're ready to go. Yeah,
thank you, Yeah, thank you.
Speaker 5 (02:35):
It's good.
Speaker 4 (02:36):
That's a nice compliment.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
I think. Always nice to see you, or it is
just loaded, loaded, loaded full of something and.
Speaker 4 (02:44):
Well, good morning.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Always a pleasure, my friend.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
Yeah, of course.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
And let's say good morning to our fearless leader. Now
thirteen plus years now, I've told you that he runs
a top producer, Keller Williams Team, the Florida Home Pros
Team and Keller Williams Innovations. You'll find Jimmy D. There's
jim Depola. Jimmy D.
Speaker 5 (02:59):
How you be, Hey, everybody. I'm feeling very well, Johnny,
thank you so much, Happy stuff Florida, everybody, nice cloudy.
Speaker 2 (03:06):
Day out my way yet very long. I don't know
if I do.
Speaker 5 (03:12):
I had a lot of thunderheads stuff over on the
East coast.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
That's what it's what I love about Florida. You look out,
you're like, oh, it's nice, and you're like your neighbor's like, no,
it's not actually a month sooner.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
The best part is it was like summer hot and
it's like, oh my god, when's this heat gonna end?
And then it's now it's rain every days, when's this
rain gonna end?
Speaker 2 (03:37):
It is a cycle, isn't it. We do have a
nice little, uh little cooling trend. I guess right now,
a little, a little push through it.
Speaker 5 (03:45):
It is a little it has been a little cooler.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
Easy for me.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
It's at work inside.
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (03:49):
But if you take the opposite attitude mic that you
enjoy the hot weather and you enjoy the amminity, then
you're happy most of the time about stuff instead of
complaining about it.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
If you're living, you have to enjoy the heat.
Speaker 4 (04:04):
I don't know if it's like like this for everybody,
but maybe it's just my body type. But uh, i'll
walk outside, I'll be sweating in three minutes.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
Oh you make it three minutes.
Speaker 4 (04:16):
I wish nothing like the barrest amount of physical exertion
and it's like my shirt is so trill. I'm walking
at a normal pace, so you know.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
It's weird. I don't know why I do enjoy the heat,
but for some reason, when i'm if I have my
wife and my daughter in the car. As soon as
you turn the ignition on, there like push the air.
They want it now, right.
Speaker 4 (04:39):
My dad is like that, alright.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
I'm a windows down, music up kind of guy. Yeah.
I don't run the easy, so I just going from
place to place. I will work up a sweat.
Speaker 4 (04:50):
Just because I don't know why you're used to it.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Though.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
I like it fresh air, well you know, I mean
as fresh as it is around here. Still, I used
to be the same way. I love driving. I would
do windows Okay.
Speaker 5 (05:01):
Can I ask you guys a question. Were you both
smokers at one point?
Speaker 2 (05:04):
At you and I know you were.
Speaker 5 (05:06):
I was too, and I was a window down guy too.
I bet it's partly that, so i'd have to happen.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Maybe maybe I've transitioned into it. My first handful of
years in Florida, I was straight turned that air on
as soon as you can. I don't know what's happened,
but I'm in the last well I don't know, fifteen years.
I'm straight. All windows down. Make that music as loud
as it can be because I'm deaf, and let's go.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
Have you always showered every day or is there like
a time in your past when you wouldn't shower? So
the windows being down would be helpful.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
If I'm not, it would be very helpful to Yeah,
if i'm If I'm not taking a shower, I mean
i'm camping or something, you know.
Speaker 5 (05:43):
Yeah, there was a pretty famous movie that was filmed here,
partially here in Lakeworth called Body Heat. I don't know
if you remember that with Kathleen Turner. Yeah, and Kevin
k Not Kevin Kline. I can't remember the guy from
The Big Chill, one of the guys from the Big Show.
Speaker 4 (06:01):
That's another blessing. There's a lot of people in the
Big Show.
Speaker 5 (06:04):
Yeah, I know, but it's the guy, the guy that
I think. No, he wasn't the dead guy. I thought
he was a guy in the casket. He wasn't the
dead guy. The dead guy. Yeah, Kathleen Turner can't remember.
But anyway, that whole thing was filmed about this corrupt
attorney and this lady trying to kill somebody. And set
up somebody for murder. But it was set here in Florida,
(06:25):
and it was like older Florida and there was no
air conditioning. Sought their whole movie. Everybody's sweating and wiping
their brow and right, and they had the fans on
and everything, you know, to keep it going. And to me,
that was so exemplary, just Florida, right, the weather, and
I just when I was a kid, I was like,
(06:46):
that's where I want to stay. It's something like that.
I really really enjoyed the heat. I like the heat.
But I got to tell you, the last three years,
I'm sure it's because I'm getting older. It's sometimes it's
like I don't want that heat anymore. Yeah, yeah, it's
pretty wild.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Well we changed, did you find the body heat?
Speaker 3 (07:02):
As far as the stars, William William Hurt, it was William.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
Ted dancing.
Speaker 5 (07:10):
Yeah. They had a pretty good cast in that, and
they filmed a lot of it at this bar in
downtown Lake Worth. I don't know if it's still there anymore.
It's a pretty cool movie. It's film noir, so it's
a crime like film noir movies.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
I still see Ted dancing and brand new commercials. I
can't tell you what the commercials are.
Speaker 5 (07:27):
But he has another hit TV show.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Yeah, I don't know anything.
Speaker 5 (07:33):
He just it's like Netflix or Paramount Plus or something.
But I just watched it. You ever hear only murders
in the building. It's like with Martin Short and oh yeah, yeah, yeah,
it's the same exact thing. But he's also.
Speaker 4 (07:50):
Enthusiasm as a regular. Well that's gone, no, but he
was on it, Yeah, he was.
Speaker 5 (07:54):
Yeah, and he had other series. That guy has had
so many series and they last. His series don't get
canceled in like a year.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
It's awesome.
Speaker 4 (08:03):
He's got that one. He's got that one that he
can lean on pretty heavy.
Speaker 5 (08:06):
Which one's not here?
Speaker 2 (08:10):
You call that the money maker?
Speaker 5 (08:11):
Yeah, the money maker exactly. Anyway, Well he's aged one too.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
I mean he's just silver. But he's not one of
those ones you're like, what did you do? Man? That's
way too much surgery. You don't even look like yourself anymore. Yeah,
he's ted.
Speaker 5 (08:23):
Dancing, Yeah, exactly, exactly. So we got a lot to
talk about today. One of the things I want to
talk about is I remember, I think I started talking
about this in twenty eighteen. So Broken Clock is right,
twice a day. They're talking about stagflation coming right, So
I saw a headline, is this the width of stagflation?
Speaker 2 (08:45):
Well, you're starting to get a little increase in unemployment claims,
So a little bit more of the time is the
time to get ahead of it and be like, ah,
here comes.
Speaker 5 (08:53):
A little bit of inflation, a little bit of unemployment,
you know, and all of a sudden you're getting this
concoction to create not a good thing, really good news.
The interest rates have dropped very significantly this week, Mike.
I mean, it isn't going to make or break your budget,
but it's still that's the biggest drop we've had in
(09:13):
quite a while. So we're going to talk about that.
Speaker 4 (09:15):
Yeah, went from six and six and a half to
six point.
Speaker 5 (09:19):
Three five and one one week. That's zero point one
five is a big drop for one week. Pressure though,
ye yeah, yeah, So so they just push that down.
We're also going to talk about all my feelings, you
know exactly. I also thought it would be kind of
(09:39):
smart to talk about economics one oh one and how
it relates to real estate, so you can understand as
a buyer or seller or refire right, something like that
of like, what should happen in the market. I was
talking to a guy yesterday who's buying a home and
(10:00):
he his he said, his first time home buyer. And
he's like, yeah, I'm going to buy this house, and
I think his rate's going to be like five point
six and he goes, yes, So I'm going to go
ahead and buy the house and then in a year
I'll just go ahead and refly, right, And I said, okay.
And I'm not his agent. He was calling me from
(10:20):
advice because he's a friend of a friend or whatever,
and said, hey, why don't you talk to Jim and
find out a couple of things. So I said to him, look,
you can't rely on the REFI. So if you're buying
the house now expecting the REFI to be your affordable budget,
be very careful. You got to have the affordable budget
now with the current mortgage payment'.
Speaker 4 (10:40):
Oh, he was saying, he more or less will need
to refly to relieve some pressure.
Speaker 5 (10:44):
He was counting on it. Almost interesting, you know what
I mean.
Speaker 4 (10:48):
And he's you're saying, he said five five point six.
Speaker 5 (10:51):
Yeah, it was a great interest rate, and he was
expecting to get even lower than that.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
You know what the rates are currently.
Speaker 5 (10:58):
He's so fresh, brand new, like his agent didn't explain everything.
Speaker 4 (11:02):
Is he's probably paying money for that rate.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
He might be well, I think he's getting to sell
her credit. He's getting to sell a credit. Well, it's
a can you can you do buy down with a
fit cheh Okay.
Speaker 4 (11:13):
Then you can't with the DPA program like the Florida
Housing GEA.
Speaker 5 (11:16):
But I don't think he's in another state, so I
don't think hey have that.
Speaker 4 (11:19):
But I guess the So the question for me is
like if it costs money to get a lower than
you know, normal what i'll call the par intest, Well,
he's getting it from the seller, regardless of where it's
coming from, it's costing money. And then if you're refinancing,
like there's a break events like he should be asking himself,
does it make sense to buy down the raid or
take that money and do something else with it. He's
(11:41):
deciding to take that money it's available to him and
buy down the interest rate. So that's the old Hey
give me, you know, give me a thousand dollars today, Jim,
and I'm gonna pay you back one hundred dollars a
month right for the life of loon right right, right,
So that's you know what did I do?
Speaker 5 (11:59):
Uh?
Speaker 4 (12:00):
Break even?
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Right?
Speaker 4 (12:01):
Right? So if you refinance your loan before ten months,
you shouldn't have given me a thousand bucks because you
know you never made it back.
Speaker 5 (12:08):
Right, Well that's sort of yeah, yeah, yeah, go keep going.
Speaker 4 (12:12):
Like yeah, so then if you so they break even.
The simple break even there is like, Okay, I'm gonna
take x amount of money, I'm gonna direct it towards
buying down my rate. Think of it as like I
don't know, prepaid interest, right, but essentially give me money. Now,
I'm going to pay you back incrementally. The longer you
allow me to pay you back, the better the choice
it was for you. Right, you're in the red for
a certain amount of months and then you're in the black,
(12:33):
and then the more you're in the black, the better,
the better the decision was. So, if you're planning on
taking money, buying down a rate, and then refinancing within
a year, it's probably well within the break even period,
and so he should do something else with the money.
Speaker 5 (12:46):
Yeah, And I explained that. I said, look, a refine
a year, you'd have to have a really significant, significant
interest rate drop to want to refinance in a year
or you paid like maybe a non conforming loan, you're
paying way high than the average interest rate, and then
you want to get locked into a regular interest rate
if you will. Yeah, but I also explained about the
(13:07):
closing costs and how you have to divide how much
you're paying to get that refine, and you also needed
divide it by the savings.
Speaker 4 (13:14):
The other thing is I'm talking to people. You know, obviously,
this this rate talk has got people thinking about refinances,
especially if they were you know, late twenty twenty three,
a lot of twenty twenty four. We're starting to get
into this zone where the rate is better than your rate, right,
maybe by a little bit, maybe by you start getting
toward like one point, right, so one and a half.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
At this point, you're just hoping you got the equity positioning, right,
That's it.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
That's exactly where I was going, which is if you don't,
if your home value hasn't increased, and you really you
just made your normal payments, so you haven't paid down
your principle a lot in the first year or two
of the loan, you know, you may not have the
equity position that is ideal for refinancing because you end
up with a loan, are you rolling in your costs?
Speaker 2 (14:01):
Right?
Speaker 4 (14:01):
These costs do exist more or less, and so has
your has your home value increased enough just naturally over
the past two years to allow for that refile?
Speaker 5 (14:12):
And if you're FHA financing chances are or via financing
chances are unless we had a really strong appreciation year,
that isn't going to happen, right, Because you need twenty
percent equity minimum, right, you.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
Don't need it if you want to get rid of
that the mortgage insurance component. Right. So so one way.
Speaker 5 (14:31):
I'm talking about if you're trying to get do it
for interest rate like the guy was talking about. Let's
focus on what the guy was his intent was by it. Now,
in a year, the interest rates over drop and get
a lower payment, right, right, So I know that you
can use I know you could do something rid of
the PMI and that will lower your payment too, but
let's just keep it like kind of simple.
Speaker 4 (14:51):
Well, what I'm saying you said you need, you need
at least twenty percent. So the answer is no, you can.
You can refinance. Uh, what's called a limited cash out.
No cash out refinance. So let's say I started with
an FHA loan, I did it a three and a
half percent down. Well, if my home value has an
increased to that twenty percent equity position, you can still
do a limited cash out refinance. I mean you can
(15:15):
roll in your closing costs.
Speaker 2 (15:16):
Right.
Speaker 4 (15:16):
You can't do like debt consolidation, which is what a
lot of people think with cash out, but you can
basically do a replace one loan with the new loan.
But if you don't have the twenty percent equity position,
and you're going like say FHA to FHA or VA
to VA whatever it is, or or even conventional to conventional,
But without twenty percent, you're still going to have mortgage
insurance in your new payment, right, So yeah, you're going
(15:38):
to get the lower interust rate. But the other thing
that traditionally people look at with refis is getting rid
of them. So you're still going to have m I
in that picture.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
And what's am I now? Like eight?
Speaker 4 (15:49):
No, So it is expressed as a percentage, And the
way I like to think about it, I add my
thirty year rate to my mi I rate, my AMI
factor and that's my interest rate. So am I it
depends on. So we're talking about private mortgage insurance on
the conventional side, or in the fah's case, is just
called mortgage insurance. But f Ah's am I. If you're
(16:11):
doing the traditional three and a half percent down the
low down payment, which most people are doing with FHA,
it's point five to five percent.
Speaker 5 (16:18):
They dropped it. They dropped you twice.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
I know, because when I got in it was like one.
Speaker 4 (16:27):
Yeah, it was probably point eight five.
Speaker 5 (16:29):
They know it was they dropped to point eight five.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
At one point almost five, it was like what it
was or maybe three five.
Speaker 5 (16:37):
So that's been also a benefit to buyers over time.
I mean, you're saving you know, point eight five. You know,
if we're at point five to five now from the beginning,
we're like saving three quarters of a point just from
your mortgage insurance over time. And the reason why that
happened was they wanted to protect themselves from foreclosures, and
as we're getting other foreclosure prices, they brought it all
way up to that high one percent above you know
(16:59):
pm I at one point one to two or one
point twenty five, and then as they saw the foreclosure
risk was so low for so long, we've had less
than one percent foreclosure since that crisis for years, right,
So they dropped it to the point eight five probably,
and then they did again to point five.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
Because they're writing more dependable loans, you know.
Speaker 5 (17:21):
Well, yeah, yeah, and there's been less risks. It's like that,
there's less risks. Nobody's you know, there's a stampede of
foreclosures coming in.
Speaker 4 (17:29):
Well remember that the them. I I don't know how
deep we want to get into this, but essentially FAHA
and VA are mortgage insurance entities essentially, right. So the mandate,
faha's mandate is home ownership, the American dream. We want
(17:50):
you to provide loans. We're going to set the rules
for how to approve those people for loans. So we're
going to set our own risk kind of assessment, and
then we're going to provide the insurance to you, mister
and missus lender, right, the buyer or borrower pays that insurance,
but it doesn't protect them at all. It protects the lender. Right. So,
(18:11):
and the whole point is, well, you can do alone
with very little skin in the game, very little down payment.
Don't worry, We're going to make sure it's a good loan,
and we're going to make sure if there is a
problem that you have some insurance.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
Right.
Speaker 4 (18:24):
So FAHA operates as a mortgage insurance entity via also
mortgage insurance energy. So the am I that they charge
either upfront or monthly some case both, it funds their
insurance activity. Right. So as that account is achieving certain milestones, right,
(18:47):
and it's like that that account shouldn't be growing forever.
It should be it should have enough in there to
cover their exposure. And their exposure is some factor of
how many claims are we going to have where we're
we owe money to somebody. Right, It's just like any
insurance operation, right, Like and they're they're not for profit,
you know, Hey, let's just make as much as possible
(19:08):
so that we can diversify and then we're going to
get into all these It's not that type of insurance company.
It's like, fund the insurance you know, account enough to
cover our anticipated claim activity just in case.
Speaker 5 (19:19):
Right.
Speaker 4 (19:19):
So that's why that factor is changing because they're trying
to figure out, like what's it going to take so
that we're you know, where we need to be, but
not overfunded and certainly not underfunded, but getting back to
the point, so you could definitely refinance from it a
loan that has m I into a new loan that
has m I. It'd be nice to get rid of
the more insurance. Like who wants to pay a fee
(19:40):
that you don't that doesn't give you anything other than
the ability to do a low down payment loan.
Speaker 2 (19:45):
Right, I guess it depends on how much your your
interest rate has changed, Right, so everyb willing to eat
that m I. If you're like, man, the interest rates
dropped by a full point if.
Speaker 4 (19:54):
You did an f H a loan two years ago.
Let's just whatever, Say you're a seven and a half
and then your am I f actors point five five,
so you're basically eight point zero five. Like, that's the
way you should be thinking about it, right, you got
to add them. And then if you're new let's say
the new rate six and a half, but you also
have the MI at point fivey five, Well, now you're
at seven point zero five, so you're basically one percent lower.
(20:15):
Right if you're going FAHA to FH. If you went
FAHA to conventional without mi I, well then that's.
Speaker 5 (20:21):
A bigger point and a half. It's a bigger down
to point and a half.
Speaker 4 (20:24):
But home values unless you've done, like, you know, significant improvements,
just the standard how much of has has your house
appreciated in the last year or two years? Like that's
it's not it hasn't been. It's not twenty percent.
Speaker 5 (20:41):
And people don't get twenty percent. Even during COVID, we
didn't get twenty percent appreciation year over year. We were
getting like numbers. We were getting twelve and thirteen and fourteen. Yeah,
but that was like monster numbers. It's like, yeah, like
what you know, probably once in a lifetime situation. Let
me tell you that wasn't a hell healthy market. No,
(21:01):
it was like people learned about crack and couldn't get
rid of it. Markets you know, they added an addiction. Yeah,
and you know, you know, slow markets are bad too,
But that kind of market is not a healthy market.
It's almost like cycle.
Speaker 4 (21:13):
Marketing, like the refinanced conversation. It's it's one of those
because it could be presented by a professional in a
very appealing way, and I you know, this is one
of those things that I struggle with because I know
that people coming to me for solid advice, like hey, Mike,
what's your expert opinion on doesn't make sense to refinance
or not. But they will also have five other people
(21:36):
know that they like, Wow, it's a great to call
them up. The receive a phone call right or something
in the mail that says, hey, do you realize you
can save you know, two hundred dollars a month, And
it's like, yeah, you're right. Your payment might go down
two hundred dollars a month and that could make or
break it, right, Like that's the goal, Like, hey, I
just I'm so tight. Maybe this guy that you've started
(21:59):
the conversation with is he just needs his payment to
be lower, right, Maybe you got hit with the property
tax increase that first or second year, and so just
the budget is really really tight. I'll do anything to
save two hundred dollars a month. And it's like, okay, well,
if you're willing to add on, you know, maybe you
had a down payment assistance. I was talking to somebody.
(22:19):
They had hometown Heroes eighteen thousand dollars, right, So if
you're willing to add on eighteen thousand dollars onto the
low your balance right to what you owe and the
closing costs, so whatever, let's say twenty five thousand dollars
twenty seven thousand dollars whatever. If you're willing to take
on that additional loan amount.
Speaker 5 (22:40):
And start out of thirty years aye, and.
Speaker 4 (22:42):
Start a new thirty year loan and the result is
a two hundred dollars month lower payment, that's okay as
long as you understand that's.
Speaker 5 (22:48):
What you're saying. Filmost like, you're buying your house back
in a way and getting two hundred dollars less payment,
but you're paying more for the house that you.
Speaker 4 (22:55):
Put And then whatever the equity position you have built
up over these last two years, well now you're again.
Speaker 5 (23:01):
You're you're wiping away any equity you have. And that's
a lot of things people have to remember.
Speaker 4 (23:05):
Tough because I think about it that way, and I
evaluate refinances in that way, and I counsel or advise
people in that way, and I feel like sometimes I'm
like talking myself out of business a little bit, but
I gotta do it the right thing. Yeah, I gotta
do the right thing.
Speaker 5 (23:22):
And here's the thing, here's the real life example about this.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
And by the way, you should feel that way because
you're totally talking to yourself out of business.
Speaker 4 (23:30):
Oh yeah, yeah, sure, it's.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
Not like you feel that way. Well, it feels like
I am. No, you are. You're talking, but you're doing
the right thing by the people that are coming to you.
And that's a that's a beautiful thing. That's the Florida
Talk real Estate way. That's why Mike Row is a
valuable part of this team. That's why when you're looking
for pros pros, when you're looking to buy a home,
sell a home, stuck with a home, you don't know
what to do anything that touches the world of real estate.
(23:52):
You need to go to somebody that's going to give
you an understanding of your options and what's best for
you and your family, not just yeah, we can do it,
but it's done. It may not be your best case scenario,
it may not be the best timing for you. And
being told that and then making that decision, well, that's
a different beast than just hey, that's your best choice.
Florida Talk real Estate at least should be vetted when
(24:15):
you're looking to touch anything in the world of real estate.
Florida Talk real Estate dot Com. Florida talkreal Estate dot
Com get to know the prospros at Florida talkreal Estate
dot Com.
Speaker 5 (24:25):
Thank you, Johnny. Here's the real life example of this.
I was going to bring it up today, Mike, but
I'm gonna go ahead and do just to show a
real life example of when Mike's given real news to
people and they have a different expectation because they talk
to other people and they're like shut you know, they
emotionally shut down because they're not getting the information they
want to hear. So remember recently, Joe and Linda were
(24:48):
wanted to sell their house, so they were going to
sell a house to a relative, and the relative probably
when Mike went through it, the relative was definitely not
quite worthy and they were a bunch of stuff the
potential buyer needed to do and it was probably going
to take a time. It wasn't just pay off a
(25:10):
credit card. There was a lot of stuff involved in it.
So Mike went over everything and explained, look, we can
get this all worked out, but you're gonna have to
follow my instructions on how to do this. There is
a path, and they were very kind of emotional. Is
it right to say like emotionally shut down, like almost
passive aggressive or so I don't want to use the
(25:31):
wrong term. But they didn't like what Mike was saying
bottom line, because they really wanted to buy this house,
and they were talking to other people who didn't go
in depth as much as Mike did to really find
out and giving them total assurances that there would be
no problem, they can get along. So here they have
that person saying that, and then Mike's telling them no, no, no,
(25:51):
no no, that you've got to do this and this
and this and this in order to be qualified, and
even then you might have to still have some time,
and they didn't want to hear it, so they pulled
away from Mike. Then they found out that they couldn't
do it, so then they brought another relative in and
Mike went through the same thing and it was no.
(26:12):
And then finally what ended up happening was the father
stepped up, the ex husband slash father stepped in, and
then he's buying the house. So it isn't even the
people that originally started to do the whole thing, and
he's an investor, he had his own guy. They'd wanted
to work this, so I couldn't do anything about that.
But the thing is in that leads I know, but
(26:32):
it really bummed me out because Mike gave all the
correct information to those two buyers, right, those but two
tent buyers. Mike was one hundred percent right everything he said.
And I was talking to the other mortgage broker that
was saying that they could do it, and I was like, well,
why do you think you could do it? And I
had the information that Mike gave me and I would
(26:53):
bring it up and he didn't even pull a hard
pull on the credit yet. Mike right, and they were
making these assurances. And that's the point I'm trying to make.
Mike will give you the real information you need to
make the right decisions that sometimes can cost you money
while you're explored by the house, like inspections and appraisals,
(27:13):
and know you can close as opposed to other people
that give you the assurances without doing the thorough checks
you need to do to really know if you're good
for that loan. And it's so emotionally disappointing when you
trust somebody like that and then you don't get the
job done. It's devastating to the person.
Speaker 2 (27:33):
You got goals to close. Yeah, just get in the process.
Speaker 4 (27:37):
ABC Johnny always closed in the sales way and then
like actually, let's get to the faceline. Yeah, it's also
not only is it devastating to buyers, sellers, agents who
have all put time, emotional investment and monetary everything, it's
devastating to your career as a loan riche if you
(28:01):
if you get people into like there's no way to
have legs in this business or longevity and real estate relationships,
if you're like every preapproval you give it's like fifty
to fifty, Like yeah, I hope, so sure, spaghetti, let's
make it work.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
You know, And can you imagine if it was like
a fifty to fifty shot with Mike every time you'd
be like, dude, what.
Speaker 4 (28:23):
Are we doing it? Or if I was like, yeah, Jim,
I don't know. I did what I need to do,
but I just like it's got to go to underwriting,
Like I just don't know. I don't know what the
underwriter is going to think about well see any of
this right, And it's like, well, but we got to
get into contract. We're going to spend you know, a
thousand dollars on inspections and appraisals, and we got a
loan deadline, a commitment, and you know, like can you
(28:46):
imagine working. I mean, I'm sure you have. Like you've been,
you have been on the seller side of things where
at some point you realize the lending for the buyers
got problems, and it's like having one right now, it's
like it gives you a heart attack. Right, Well, this
one you got to perform.
Speaker 5 (29:04):
Listen to this. The buyers went to buy the house.
It was a husband and wife. They had a mortgage broker.
I wasn't really sure. I was really I just got
burned with another deal where the buyer's agent was saying,
remember Bobby and Becky and they had a buyer and
they couldn't close, and they ended up keeping the deposit, right,
(29:25):
this other's got to keep the deposit.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (29:27):
So with that one, the wife lost the job, right, basically,
she lost her job. So it turned into a whole
thing and they had to change the irs, transcripts and everything.
Then there had to be a playment plan worked out.
It was very skin of the teeth whether it's going
to work out. We found out on Thursday that we're
closing next week, but it took him about three and
(29:49):
a half four weeks, and it was very iffy. It's
very scary for everybody involved in the deal. Youah, it's
very stressful the point I want to take the break.
But I hope he people that are talking about buying
or refine really understand what we're talking about about working
with Mike. He's going to give you real advice, real information,
and be very helpful how to solve problems the right
(30:11):
way and not give you false hopes. So anytime you're
thinking about that, you've got to think of us and
give us a calm. We'll get you over to Mike
right away.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
Yeah, you got to go to pros pros. Look, you
know a lot of people. You probably know some people
that work in the field. I wish I could can
we may work on like a like a cheat sheet,
like a way to vet people to determine if you're
working with people that really are as thorough as you'd
like them to be, because that would be a huge advantage.
(30:41):
You should be vetting your professionals, and I encourage you
to do that. Start with the team at Florida Talkrealestate
dot com. I'm not driving you in that direction to
say like, hey, these are the only people that are
great at what they do. There are lots of people
that are very good at what they do in this industry,
but there's a ton more that are not good at
(31:02):
all at their jobs, and that is a crapshoot that
I don't want you to be in. When you're trying
to find a pros pro buying a home, selling a home,
stuck with a home, you don't know what to do,
these are very stressful times. Is some of the biggest purchases,
the biggest transactions of your life. You gotta have people
that have your best interest and know all the pitfalls,
know what your options are and present them to you
(31:24):
very articularly and give you an understanding so that you
can sort through it what's best for you and your family.
So start your vetting process at floridatalkreal Estate dot com.
I got a professional in every aspect one click away
Florida talkreal Estate dot Com. You hear many of them
here on all shows on Saturday, and there's only so
many microphones, so there's many that you don't hear every Saturday.
(31:46):
But believe me when I tell you they all are
like minded, They work cohesively together, and it's all about
treating the people right. Being a very contributing member of
the community and seeing what happens for you and your
family puts a smile on their face. Helping you along
the way is what's most important. The business always comes
in the end when you write by people. So go
to Florida Talkrealestate dot com. Learn what we're talking about.
(32:08):
Florida Talkrealestate dot com. Know what, use it, love it,
share it. You can change lives, including your very own
at Florida talkreestate dot Com. We're back in forur minutes.
Thanks for being with us every Saturday, Florida Talk real Estate.
Right here, it's real Radio.
Speaker 1 (32:34):
This is Florida Talk real Estate with Jim Depola and
Johnny c. Got a question for the show. Call us
live at one eight seven seven nine two seven sixty
nine sixty nine.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
It is I Give it to you again eight seven
seven nine two seven six nine six nine toll free.
We'll take you up until eleven o'clock, as we do
every Saturday. We're live on this thirteenth of September. Thanks
for being out there. If you do dial in, remember
to say good more Jimothy, our producers shorten air. What's
up my dude?
Speaker 3 (33:02):
Hello, Hello, and good morning gentlemen. By the way, I
checked our international numbers.
Speaker 4 (33:06):
We're way up in Portugal.
Speaker 5 (33:08):
Wow. Oh that's pretty good.
Speaker 2 (33:10):
That's that Facebook push that he's doing for Yeah, a
big Portuguese push. Nice it works, See it works. Amazing.
World Wided on your free download your aheart radio app.
And thanks for being out there Portugal.
Speaker 4 (33:25):
We see you. Do you remember we did good morning?
What is it?
Speaker 2 (33:31):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (33:31):
How are you gonna you're gonna shout out to our
Portuguese peeps?
Speaker 5 (33:35):
Was that again?
Speaker 2 (33:36):
It was?
Speaker 4 (33:36):
It was bomb. Yeah, it's like b O M D
I A. But you know, the the kind of you
have to give it a little gia.
Speaker 2 (33:50):
Where where is Portuguese spoken.
Speaker 4 (33:53):
In Portugal and in Brazil?
Speaker 2 (33:54):
Brazil? Right? Okay? Yeah, I'm like they speak Portuguese somewhere
else too, and it's Brazil, it's Brazil.
Speaker 5 (33:59):
I thought I read something where there's like thirteen countries
to speak Portuguese. I thought, I just I just heard
that somewhere and I was like, WHOA, I didn't know that.
Speaker 4 (34:08):
I only know if too predominantly speak Portuguese.
Speaker 5 (34:13):
It was something that I just went. It wasn't like
I was reading something full. It was just like a factory.
The flash crossed my mind. That was picking up. I'm like, wow,
I never knew that. Yeah, who knows.
Speaker 2 (34:23):
I wonder how many times I've heard Portuguese being spoken
and never even realized it was Portuguese.
Speaker 4 (34:27):
Ye assumed it was.
Speaker 5 (34:29):
Yeah, maybe like Spapanish or creole or something like that.
If I confuse it for something interesting?
Speaker 2 (34:35):
Yeah, uh, Jimithe I'm pretty ser short on air, Johnny See,
that's me Mike Row. He's the mortgage guy from the
mortgage firm, and he uh, he evidently knows some Portuguese.
Speaker 4 (34:44):
A couple of words. Yeah, yeah, did jiu jitsu long
enough you probably it's gonna say something.
Speaker 2 (34:49):
Is that your Is that your JJ back then EJJ BACKJJ? Yeah, yeah,
that's two j's better. How to speak Portuguese?
Speaker 4 (35:01):
Apparently there's a few countries in Africa that speak Portuguese,
including I would never guess that Mozambique who knew Portuguese?
Speaker 2 (35:09):
Yea predominantly Portuguese Mozembique.
Speaker 4 (35:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (35:12):
Interesting? Is that?
Speaker 5 (35:13):
Well?
Speaker 2 (35:14):
So I learned something new every day and that might
be the only thing I learned. But that's amazing.
Speaker 4 (35:20):
Let me learn you something.
Speaker 5 (35:21):
Thank you?
Speaker 1 (35:23):
Do you?
Speaker 2 (35:23):
Is there a lot of crossover between Spanish and Portuguese
or no.
Speaker 4 (35:26):
Uh, there's enough where it's it's familiar. But they're like
a Spanish speaker cannot speak Portuguese, vice versus can.
Speaker 2 (35:33):
You understand it?
Speaker 4 (35:34):
I would say native, So Portuguese speakers can understand Spanish
more than a Spanish speaker can understand Portuguese because cross.
Speaker 2 (35:47):
You're fluent in Spanish, ye know a little bit of Portuguese.
Couple Yeah, not enough, but you would say, somebody that's
fluent in Portuguese, you'd be able to understand a Spanish
conversation better than the opposite.
Speaker 4 (35:58):
Opposite, Yeah for sure.
Speaker 2 (36:00):
Interesting, Yeah, which one would you suggest learning? Because evidently
Portuguese is more far reaching than because I can understand
Spanish if I know Portuguese, is there more advantage to.
Speaker 5 (36:13):
Learn about I see what you're saying. Yeah, so.
Speaker 4 (36:17):
Yeah, I think if I were to bring up the
list of Spanish speaking countries, it would be more Portuguese.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
I just wouldn't be able to understand Portuguese very well.
Speaker 4 (36:24):
I would probably recommend Spanish, but that's just you know,
we live in South Florida.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Right, seems to be a Spanish has so many different
dialects too. I mean it's not just one Spanish. I mean,
there are so many different loans.
Speaker 5 (36:38):
There's I mean, yeah, the spanishillion Spanish, there's some South
Americans Spanish.
Speaker 4 (36:44):
I don't think there's that much variation in the the
overall Spanish language, but there's certainly accents all over, regional
accents region.
Speaker 2 (36:51):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (36:52):
And I wonder what the Spanish country, like a country
redneck accent is right, because they got it right, they
got it like and like the rich people. I wonder
what kind of accents like the rich people have, you know,
like Thurston Hell from heel against right, if they talk
like that.
Speaker 4 (37:11):
Hover. Have you ever heard bad bunny speak Spanish?
Speaker 5 (37:17):
No, I haven't.
Speaker 4 (37:19):
There's well, I don't know which one, which one you
were going for? That's that's the which one it used
to be the one because that's the rich.
Speaker 5 (37:27):
The hood dial Yeah, it's like the hood dials.
Speaker 4 (37:29):
Just like the street dialog.
Speaker 2 (37:32):
Dude is a global icon. That dude is a monster.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
He did something, man. I saw him at the other day.
He had like it was a picture. He's wearing jeans,
He's got like a rope as a belt. I'm like,
what's going on here? This is on he's on.
Speaker 2 (37:44):
Tour for him.
Speaker 4 (37:46):
What's happening?
Speaker 2 (37:47):
It's a beast.
Speaker 4 (37:48):
What's happening?
Speaker 2 (37:48):
Microw mortgage guy from the borgagory of Johnny c or
O buddy. Of course, Jimmy D's here. He's our fearless
leader thirteen plus years now. I've told you he runs
a top producing Keller Williams team, the Florida Home Pros
Team and Keller Walliams in as. Hi, Jimmy D.
Speaker 5 (38:00):
Hey, everybody, thank you, Johnny appreciate it. Yeah, okay, I'll stop.
I won't talk my Portuguese today. Okay, so everybody understands.
Jim your cameras, I guess that would help. It's looking
at thank you, Jimmy, because I never looked at the
camera when I'm on the show. Yeah, there it is. Okay,
thank you, Jimmy, appreciate it. You have pro's brother. I've
only been doing this thirteen years? Have we been on
(38:21):
the show, Johnny? Thirteen years? Right? But can you imagine
next year's gonna say fourteen? No, it's looking at this,
oh yeah, just doing its own thing. I guess say
I took over.
Speaker 4 (38:35):
I was gonna say if I were a conspiracy theorist
are you human? YEA right, human.
Speaker 5 (38:41):
I was like, I don't want to see Jimmy d right. Okay, Mike,
we're gonna talk about mortgage rates right now, and Johnny,
we're gonn talk about morge rates. So we're not going
to talk about the national economy because that's gonna be
a little other segment. Okay. So I don't want to.
I want to kind of separate him because I want
to focus on the mortgage rates because it is news.
So I don't want to talk about the future and
(39:01):
stuff about what's going to happen. I want to kind
of just focus on where we're at and where we've
been with interest rates over the last like two years. Okay.
And then later on in the show, we're going to
probably the next segment, we'll go right into the current
economy and what all this stuff means and what's probably
going to happen in the near future.
Speaker 4 (39:20):
You're predicting where rates are going to be.
Speaker 5 (39:22):
Well predicting where the rate's going to be, and even
farther than that, like the rate cut for the FED
is coming out next Wednesday, Wednesday, Thursday. You know, I'm
saying they're meeting next Wednesday, Thursday, right, so they're going
to make a decision on that. But I think what
I'd like to do is take a look a little
bit longer down the road for the bigger picture, because
(39:43):
I think there's a lot of interesting factors that people
need to consider and when you're trying to buy or sell,
the people that are trying to weigh the market, I
want to kind of let them know where we're at. Okay,
So the first thing is the big news, of course,
is that we had a point one five drop from
six point five to six point three five according to
Freddie macweekly survey that's been out since nineteen seventy one. Right,
(40:09):
so we're at six point three five. Now, that's pretty good.
I think that is Mike, is that the low for
the year.
Speaker 4 (40:15):
It's the lowest and almost.
Speaker 5 (40:18):
Yes, it's the low for a year for this year.
But right, the last time that we were near this,
because you can't get the perfect number was October. We're
at six point three to two October tenth, twenty twenty four,
and then the week after that we went up to
six four four. Right, So six point three two is
the closest number to the six point three five, and
(40:39):
that was last October. But here's the interesting thing. If
people are trying to weigh out all this interest rates stuff,
you know, trying to gauge the market and their decisions
based on interest rates only, which we all know is
kind of we've we've talked about this. That na kind
of a silly exercise. It's a factor, but shouldn't be
the factor.
Speaker 2 (40:58):
Yep.
Speaker 5 (41:00):
But if you start from January, I went back to January,
even going back to October of twenty twenty four, the
highest we got so that was six three to two.
The highest we got was seven point oh four. And
the lowest we got is since October of last year
is six point three five. So we've only had a
(41:22):
point six five roughly point sixty five point seven variants
for the whole year. Yes, and it didn't like go
up point seven and went up a little bit, went
down a little bit, went up a little bit again,
went down a little bit again, but it hung within
that half point roughly half point interest rate. The low
(41:43):
was pretty much six point five in the high was
seven until last week, right, and then last week we
started dropping a lot lower.
Speaker 4 (41:52):
We've had I think the reason it's kind of news
now Jim is like, I'm just looking at we've had
pretty much two months now of eight rental reductions. Right,
So two months ago we're at six point seven five, right,
six point seventy five, and we've gone down now to
six point three five. So it's what's that, Johnny point
four point four. I'm going to call it a half
(42:13):
a percent, we'll call it a half, call it a half.
So basically going down a half percent in a two
month period, which has been big news if you're actively
shopping or perhaps even actively getting into contract or maybe
even already locked in a month ago or two months ago,
and now you're looking at a float down like this
is the type of movement where you can kind of
renegotiate your rate based on market movement. So we're looking
(42:36):
at that for people who are locked. But that's been
a headline. But yeah, I agree, it's been a year.
We're basically right where we were a year ago as
far as rates go. Now, don't look too closely at
that chart because you'll you'll see there was a dip
leading into September.
Speaker 5 (42:51):
And it went up dramatically.
Speaker 4 (42:53):
And remember last September of the FED dropped point five right,
and then some that point five, Jim, what was the
deal that back then? It like wasn't enough or it
was more than people thought a quarter people.
Speaker 5 (43:06):
Thought it was going to be a quarter in two
point five everybody went wow, why Yeah, they.
Speaker 4 (43:11):
Were like wait a second, why And then like you know,
then that from September October November, the rates all the
way through January kind of crept back up a little bit.
So if you're thinking that pattern is going to repeat,
it kind of looks that way right now as we're leading,
we're dropping in anticipation of the Fed doing something right.
Speaker 5 (43:32):
We're not talking about that right now. Okay, okay, but
work with You're you're on point on everything. But I
just want to keep on the interest rates a little
bit longer, Mic, if you don't mind.
Speaker 4 (43:41):
Yeah, oh, you're talking about the economy.
Speaker 5 (43:42):
Yeah, because now you're heading into like what you know,
what happened? But you're all right, all of that happened,
and we did have a dramatic increase. I'd like to
use the number we were at six eight four. We
were at six eight four July.
Speaker 2 (43:59):
July.
Speaker 5 (44:00):
I'm sorry, hold on, no, wait, we were six eight
four in November, right, So we dropped almost a half
a point from November. Right, So like if you were
buying in November of last year, we are a half
point below that right now, right, So, and a half
point does save you money and it gives you more
(44:22):
purchasing power and everything. But unless you're really really super
tight on your budget, the half point for most people
isn't going to make or break, is that true? Mic
when you normally go to people's files.
Speaker 2 (44:34):
So.
Speaker 4 (44:37):
You have to be at an extreme of what you
qualify for. Right, So, when you're getting preprooved for a mortgage,
you're getting I proved for a mortgage underwritten for mortgage,
you have a maximum payment that you will qualify for,
so right the p T I right, you have a
max there. That's your limit, not a proof for a
loan amount, you know, not prof for a purchase price,
or proof for a monthly payment based on your debt
to income ratio traditionally right. So, so if you're at
(45:01):
the extreme, let's say you qualify for thirty five twenty
seven a month, right, I'm talking it gets that specific.
If you're at that extreme, half a point on the
interest rate, of course is a you know can bring
you from above your limit to below your limit, Similarly
to having the insurance number, fifty dollars less a month
(45:23):
could bring you above or below your limit. Sure, so
it is important if you're.
Speaker 5 (45:31):
To most people in today's market, Let's say, over the
last two years, are most people maxim out what they
can do, like really get up to that razor edge
of their maximum approval? Or most people or can like.
Speaker 4 (45:47):
I would say no, And I would say that most
people to me are running into their own budget constraint
before they're hitting my mortgage limit.
Speaker 5 (45:58):
So they're saying, like, let's say they're approved for thirty
eight hundred a month, but in their mind they don't
want to pay a penny more than thirty four exactly,
And then they get thirty four seventy five, and they
just because they know their budget well, they just feel
that seventy five dollars a month isn't going to make it,
although the bank will give them the money, right right,
And I think, and that's smart, that's not I'm not.
I just want to make people understand that when me
(46:20):
and Mike are talking about this, we're not trying to
get you up to a number that if you feel
the line in sand's thirty four hundred in that example,
stick to your line in the sand. We're not going
to try and convince you otherwise, we don't know your
lifestyle and all the needs that you have.
Speaker 4 (46:33):
When I talk to people, when I have my initial consultation,
you know, ten to fifteen minute phone call where I'm
kind of like explaining the process gathering initial information on
that particular aspect. They tell people like, you know, what
you qualify for and what you can afford are two
different numbers and bringing it down to a monthly payment. Right,
(46:55):
So I'm you know, have you thought about where you
want to be from a budget perspective? What are you
paying now? Are you renting? Like? What do you pay now?
How does that fit your goals as far as being
able to save money every month or you tight every
you know whatever. So people have different you know, they're
usually different stages in their life as far as answering
that question. But most people have some idea of what
they think they can afford. And I say, well, what
(47:18):
you qualify for is my world. What you can afford
that's kind of that's your world. I want my number
to be higher than your number, not because I want
you to go crazy and push up on your budget.
You might have to push up on your budget to
get the right house, but I want you in control
of where you draw that line and the opposite where
I'm the one who's the lower of those two numbers.
(47:40):
That's a tricky one because then people are basically having
to cut back on what they can buy in order
to get a loan that qualifies. When they know, like, hey,
I can pay thirty eight hundred a month, but you
only got me qualified for thirty two And I say, well, yeah,
so you know, can we figure that out? How do
you get? You know, get?
Speaker 5 (47:57):
And that's that's very common, like with self employed right sure,
you know, based on what they've turned in over the
years or over the past two years.
Speaker 4 (48:06):
It could be saying I'm paying thirty eight hundred right
now a month. I'm fine, I've never missed a payment.
Doesn't that count for something?
Speaker 5 (48:11):
I'm like, although it does a little bit now, right
I was. We never talked about that. They said that
rental history now can be used for credit. Did you ever?
We never talked about it on the show. That was
like two months ago, three months ago. I forgot about it.
Speaker 4 (48:26):
So it has to do with automated underwriting.
Speaker 5 (48:29):
M H.
Speaker 4 (48:31):
I don't know how deep you want me to get
into it well this topic, but let's just say that
there's a computer analysis of whether your loan will be
meets the guidelines, so underwriting approval. But it's an automated
underwriting approval. So essentially you have an application. This is
when people talk about, like, if you've been in this world,
people talk about the DU right, the desktop underwriter. That's
(48:52):
Fanny Maze product for automated underwriting. Freddie Mac has one
called LP your Loan Prospectors Rights, the d U or LP.
That essentially means like we run it. We put your
details into the application. Forget about the documentation, just the
information on your application. You run that through the system.
It looks at your credit, it looks at your income,
(49:13):
it looks at your cash position, all based on what's
on the application, and it basically says, yes, this loan
meets the guidelines, it's going to be approved, and then
you know, gather these documents. Right, so it's kind of
like a framework for underwriting the loan. If you're on
and there's some assessment in there, right, there's some algorithmic
risk assessment happening. So it's not only you know, do
(49:36):
you meet the guidelines minimum, but also let's take a
little bit of risk analysis on your credit profile. For example,
that your example or earlier is a good one where
just having a credit score isn't going to be enough.
You need the credit score and probably some time to
kind of let your poor credit history be less impressed
to it. Right, because the automated underwriting, Like you can't
get automated underwriting if you don't have the right score.
(49:58):
But you also can't get that risk analysis that the
computer model does unless you have the credit score you need.
So it's like which comes first, right, So if you
are on the edge, like where you have these negative factors,
but these positive factors the rental history, a positive rental
(50:19):
history can be included kind of on the positive side
of the ledger and can be the difference between getting
approved that a certain ratio versus not getting approved. So
let's say your max that to incum is fifty percent,
Well you're not getting approved the fifty percent, but you
can get approved to forty three percent. Well if you
put in the positive credit history maybe now I mean
the positive rental history, meaning like Hey, you actually do
(50:42):
pay your housing obligation on time, you don't have any
problem with that that might allow you to get over
that threshold. Wher you're now getting approved at fifty DTIs.
Speaker 5 (50:49):
Well, listen, as good as I was hoping, But it's
better than nothing, because I have a lot of people
that when they're renters and they feel like when they're
having problems with their credit to try to get qualified,
they're like, you know, I've been a perfect rental payer.
Yeah for a very very long time. Doesn't that count
for anything? And now it does a little bit.
Speaker 4 (51:08):
That's the other thing is like you can do the
Vanguard's scoring model, I think is probably what you were
thinking about. Is like traditionally, your housing history, unless you're
paying a mortgage, doesn't get assessed as part of your
credit profile log. Right, It's like you're because you were
never lent money. Right. The credit scoring is all about
you borrowed money in one capacity and now you've paid,
(51:30):
you're paying it back per the terms that you agreed to.
That makes you a good credit risk, Right, Like Jim,
you borrow money from me, but you paid me back
how we agreed. When you rent, there's no borrowing of money, right,
so there.
Speaker 5 (51:43):
Is a payment service basically your.
Speaker 4 (51:46):
So it hasn't been in the traditional credit assessment because
you didn't borrow any money, nobody loans you money. So
the Vanguard one will take that into accounts. So maybe
you get a different score that does include your housing history.
Even though you didn't have a mortgage, you have a
housing history that means you pay your bills on time,
so that there's that as well. The Vanguard scoring model
(52:08):
versus the fight go perfect.
Speaker 5 (52:11):
Let's go ahead and take a break. Is that okay?
Speaker 4 (52:13):
Ready?
Speaker 5 (52:14):
We were gonna flip and get a little more into
how the economy affects what we're talking about with the
interest rates and what's gonna happen in the future. There's
a lot of big, big headlines that are out there.
I want to kind of set an expectation for people
for real about what's happening in the headlines versus what's
probably gonna happen. And we're gonna get into all that next.
Speaker 2 (52:35):
Perfect, we still had an hour remaining on this Saturday.
Of course, we'll get you up into the locker room.
I assume the locker room is live today. Jimmythy, do
you know otherwise.
Speaker 3 (52:44):
Sure is coming on at eleven o'clock perfect, and we
got a little Florida Gator action too at starting at
four point thirty.
Speaker 2 (52:50):
Today, beautiful. We are a home of Florida Gator football
here at ROW Radio, have been for years and hopefully
will continue to be for many year to come. We
got an hour it on this Saturday, September thirteenth, So
stick around. Lots of very valuable information coming up, and
always remember Florida talkreal Estate dot Com. You're one stop
real estate shop when you need pros pros. If you're
(53:12):
buying a home, selling a home, stuck with a home,
you don't know what to do, go to Florida Talkrealestate
dot Com. You can call the hotline too if you
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Com again, the hotline will be there for you. Fill
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(53:32):
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And that's a beautiful thing to have a resource like
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And if you'd like to be a part of the program,
always remember you can dial in toll free at eight
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you want to dial in right now, you can. It'll
(53:53):
be a four minute wait and we're back at it
on a Saturday, Florida Talk real Estate right here on
Real Radio.
Speaker 1 (54:12):
This is Florida Talk real Estate with Jim Depola and
Johnny C. Got a question for the show. Call us
Live at one eight seven seven nine two seven sixty
nine sixty nine.
Speaker 2 (54:22):
Harry is here.
Speaker 3 (54:23):
He am almost already sitting back down, putting the headphones on.
Speaker 2 (54:27):
Johnny See on the back impeggable timing there. It was, yeah,
and I'm sitting there pacing the whole time. I'm like,
I'm gonna go, gosh, it's supposed to be ten or
less over here. Kicks having to beauty Jimmie, Thank you
very much, Thank you, Johnny good see, buddy, always a pleasure,
Johnny C. That's me. Mikerow is right here. He's the
(54:48):
mortgage guy from the mortgage firm.
Speaker 4 (54:50):
Hello Michael, Hello, Hello, good morning.
Speaker 2 (54:52):
Good morning to you as well. And of course our
fearless leader as Jimmy D. He's been running a top
producing Keller Williams team for thirty team plus years now,
the Florida Homepros team at Caliowornias Innovations. Jimmy D, jim Depol,
how you be.
Speaker 5 (55:05):
Hey, I'm doing good. I'm doing good. Guys. Uh, really
happy Saturday. And we're just getting into now a little
bit about what's going on with the economy and how
it relates to the real estate market. Of course, the
number one thing you read about in the economy when
it comes to housing is the FED gonna cut the
(55:28):
rates next week, right, That's the big thing. And for
months and months and months, the Fed has since the
beginning of the year, the Feder has refused to make cuts.
Everybody thought we would be at three percent for the
FED rate right now and we're at like four point
twenty five. Because they thought we were going to cut
in the spring, you know, this year, and that didn't
(55:52):
happen because of the tariffs. According to the Fed, they
were worried about the tariffs and the unpredictability of what
that was gonna happen, and they had just pushed down inflation.
It took them. I don't know, was it eighteen months
or like a year, Johnny for them to get from
nine percent to that under three percent inflation. I felt
like eighteen months is too long. I don't remember if
(56:15):
it was like a year or eighteen months, but it
took it took quite a while from us to get
to beat down that inflation that we had, and we
hadn't seen inflation at nine percent and I don't know
how long, so it took him a while to beat
it down. And then they didn't want to wreck anything
because it took us so long to stop the inflation.
And then now everything's changed, so here comes. There was
(56:38):
a headline in CNN, and I know I don't like
getting red and blue about things. I just don't do that.
But I just want to reveal the source because there's
a little bit of tinge of drama in the headline.
And the headline was whiff of stagflation. Oh no, they
called it a whiff of early onset stagflation is what
(56:59):
three was. It's pretty new, so you could look it
up if you want to read it yourself. But what
they're saying is, and this is what I said last
week before I read these headlines, is hey, inflation is
starting to spark up again. It's going up a little higher.
And then Thursday we had a reconfirmation. This Thursday, we
reconfirmation of how weaker the job market is than what
(57:25):
we've been thinking. I mean, when you read the job reports,
and we've been talking about every month now for over
a year, they were pretty strong. In twenty twenty four,
they were amazingly strong. We were getting quarter million jobs.
Remember that quarter million jobs, three hundred thousand jobs created
every month. Right Now, we found out after the readjustment
that every one of those months there were seven on average,
(57:48):
there were seventy five thousand jobs less than reported that
were created, right, seventy five thousand less. So they were
over the estimate by seventy five thousand a month, right,
which is a lot of jobs. Right. That's a half
a percent on unemployment if you had it all together.
So now what we have is we have increasing inflation
(58:11):
and we have increasing unemployment. Because the unemployment job claims
came out on Thursday and it was the highest spike
that we've had since I think twenty twenty one or
twenty twenty and we had two hundred and sixty three
thousand new job claims, which is about twenty seven thousand
(58:32):
more people applying for first time unemployment claims compared to
the week before, right, so, or week before the week
before right, not year over year, but the week before so.
What we might you know?
Speaker 2 (58:47):
When I read these numbers, I didn't know how to
totally consume them. Is twenty seven thousand new unemployment claims
in a week? Is that? Is that a big blow?
It doesn't feel like a big number to me, but
I I don't know. I'm kind of ignorant to what
the scope of what a healthy introduction to the unemployment
(59:10):
claims would be. It doesn't feel like a staggeringly big
number to me, but maybe it is.
Speaker 5 (59:16):
I Can I read this? Can I read this paragraph?
Because I had the saying I had to read this
stuff like four times I went into I kind of
went wonky on this. I didn't just read the headlines
from CMBC all that headlines I was reading. I read
an article that was really good primer. I'm going to
save this article from advisor Perspectives dot com, and it's
(59:39):
really a financial visor group. But they were explaining initial
unemployment claim surge to four year high. So let me
read you this one paragraph, and it went very wonky.
It's like four pages long, a lot of really tough
reading and charts. Okay. Initial job claims measure the number
of people who file for unemployment for the first time
(01:00:00):
in a given week. In the weekending September sixth, initial
jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of two
hundred and sixty three thousand, the highest level in nearly
four years. This represents an increase of twenty seven thousand
from the previous week's figure, the largest weekly jumped since
(01:00:22):
last October. The last reading was much higher than the
forecast of two hundred and thirty five thousand, so they
thought they were going to be two hundred and thirty
five thousand jobless claims. So there's two hundred and sixty
three So this isn't the end of the world, but
it might be. This is what are we at the
beginning of a stagflation period? Is what the concern is?
Speaker 2 (01:00:44):
How long do people have after losing a job because
you can't quit a job and get unemployment, can you?
Is that more of my ignorance.
Speaker 4 (01:00:53):
You know, it's fine. I don't never can I don't
through the process, so I don't know.
Speaker 2 (01:00:58):
I don't think i've ever collecked out. I mean either
maybe once when I was much younger, but I don't
recall it.
Speaker 5 (01:01:03):
I've never done it.
Speaker 2 (01:01:04):
I have always and again this is my ignorance to it.
But I've always thought you had to you had to
be laid off and go like downsized in some way,
and then and what's the timeline for you to collect?
Because this doesn't mean these people just lost their jobs.
They could have been unemployed or underemployed for a long
time now from my perspective, and then said, you know what,
(01:01:25):
I got to give this money. I'm starting to fall behind.
Let me get on unemployment. Unless there people, unless there's
a timeline where you have to file.
Speaker 4 (01:01:32):
I'm looking at a chart right now, and it's a
week over week number, so it's almost like our Freddy
so who knows what all the reasons are, but you
have a week over week chart that you can look
at just as a baseline. So I see, Yeah, they say,
you know, it's the highest it's been all year to
(01:01:55):
sixty What is it?
Speaker 5 (01:01:57):
M sixty to sixty three two.
Speaker 4 (01:02:01):
The previous was June of this year two hundred and
fifty thousand, which is higher than last week's two hundred
and thirty five thousand. So these week over week increments,
I think that's probably, you know, an interesting number to
look at because the week prior to that only jumped
and we've from two twenty nine to two thirty six,
which happens to be lower than the two thirty five estimate,
(01:02:23):
which is kind of weird. Itix they expected it to
come down a little bit, but it jumped up. So
I don't know. It's a week over week report.
Speaker 5 (01:02:32):
It could just be a flip. It isn't a trend
week over week. You know, if you have this big
jump and it happens one time, it could go down
just as fast like next week it could happen again.
Speaker 2 (01:02:41):
Well, but I had to happen. People have to get
off unemployment, and in my mind is because there's a
timeline for it, right, It only lasts for so long
if I'm not mistaken, right, and again, I'm really ignorant
in this world. But you get a job, you're off unemployment.
So that that's got to tell me that we're going
to have all of a sudden, you know, people are
going to find jobs.
Speaker 5 (01:03:02):
And here's well, here's the problem, right because we just
had that report the week before last, right now this week.
Last week we had the report where we had seven
point one eight million jobs. It's seven point three eight
million job seekers. Well, but here that was the first
time that we ever had more people than jobs in
(01:03:23):
a very long time. We have a way and now
we have higher unemployment and less jobs.
Speaker 2 (01:03:27):
We also have a mentality problem. Too many people are like,
I'm not working for sixteen bucks an hour. I'm not
taking that thirteen dollars an hour job. It's like, you
got to get a job, and you can't hold out
for my management level all the time. You have to
go get that sixteen dollars at nineteen dollars an hour job.
The ideal of why I should make more than that,
(01:03:49):
I'm holding out for management. It's like sometimes that's the
best you can do. Right now, go get that job, right,
I think.
Speaker 5 (01:03:56):
But a lot of people were just starting that mentality
where you have to change. There has been an attitude
there were so many jobs for the amount of people.
That's why we have low unemployment that the employees. I'm
not saying it was the best, but compared to many,
many years, the employees had a gravy day for about
(01:04:17):
two years, right, a year and a half, two years
where at their salaries were increasing faster than the inflation,
which hasn't happened in a long time. And when the
salaries are increasing faster than our inflation rate, even though
our inflation rate was pretty high. So the employees had
the ability because there were so many openings and so
(01:04:38):
little employees, they could act like that, I'm not going
to take that sixteen hour dollar job. I'm going to
wait until somebody hires me for that twenty five dollars
an hour job, right, I want that management job. Whatever.
But now you're right, Johnny, it's coming to the point
where those jobs won't be is so readily available, and
they won't be as much need because the employees are
scaling back. People that have that attitude, they're probably going
(01:05:02):
to get burned because they're.
Speaker 2 (01:05:03):
Not important to deployment.
Speaker 5 (01:05:05):
Yeah, yeah, exactly, Yeah right, So, I mean, so there's
a lot of stuff going on right now. It's a
very topsy turvy economic thing, and there's so many people
that want to win. This is what's driving me crazy
about today's world is that it doesn't matter if the
economy is healthy or not. It more matters that you
(01:05:26):
want your side to win. So if the economy's good
and you're on the other side that's not in power,
then you're not going to admit that the economy is
good because you want to get back in power. And
the people that are in power, if the economy isn't
doing so good, they're not emitting it, right, if it's
getting weak or something. They don't want a min it
because they don't want to give an in to the
(01:05:47):
other side. And it doesn't matter if it's you know,
red or blue. To me, it matters do we have
a good, solid economy or we do not.
Speaker 4 (01:05:54):
I think most people it's very localized, like can I
cover my bills or yeah? And they right, like that's
the these weird like which direction is the the the
economy going and all of that. It's for most people
it's do I have a job? Am I making enough money?
(01:06:14):
Am I having to extend myself on credit? Can I
plan this vacation that I wanted? Or we're going to
have to tighten up? Right? Like that's that's where it's at.
These people who you know are looking at refinances. It's
that same question, right, These things are tight. I just
need things to get better. So what's what's happening on
main Street? Johnny, what's happening on Is it tight? It
seems like it's pretty tight. Feels tight, right, It feels
(01:06:36):
extended on credit. I talk to a lot of people
who are talking, you know.
Speaker 2 (01:06:40):
But keep spending. We have to keep spending. We have
to spending. I'm not joking that our economy depends on it. Yeah,
we have to.
Speaker 5 (01:06:48):
Now, I just I just lost it and I'm going
to find it again. But we had that report that
came out with the with the different types of products
and whether the inflation is there or not. Okay, remember
that little charret Eggs, is it up or down compared
to last month? And stuff? Right? Sure, I don't have
an in front of me right now, but the bottom
(01:07:09):
line is.
Speaker 4 (01:07:10):
Eggs are up or down.
Speaker 5 (01:07:11):
Almost all food staples are up somewhere between five percent
and twenty percent higher eggs, beef. These are things I
read yesterday. Eggs, beef, vegetables. Didn't say so much about
dairy and stuff, but a lot of food products. The
(01:07:32):
only thing that went down a little bit was energy,
like it went down one point nine percent, and restaurants,
like if you sit down at a restaurant, that went
up four percent, if fast food was five percent. School
lunches went up five point eight percent for costs, right,
and there's so much Yeah, because that's the cost too.
They actually have separate Yeah, they had the three kinds
(01:07:55):
regular restaurant, fast restaurants, like institutional places like employee yours.
Speaker 4 (01:08:00):
I'll tell you what. The school cafeteria is probably still
the cheapest place to get a meal. So if you could,
like you can't go out, you're not going out to.
Speaker 5 (01:08:09):
Well, that's the restaurant that's in the SNAP program. Now
we have the Snap program, so who knows if that's
true or not. It used to be like that, but
they just go out snap Florida's free school lunch.
Speaker 4 (01:08:20):
I'm sorry, I'm talking about for I'm talking like for
a night out. Open up the cafeteria, right.
Speaker 5 (01:08:27):
Are they cutting that out? Are they cutting out those
free lunches?
Speaker 2 (01:08:30):
Maybe? Maybe this year it's it's in place this year.
Speaker 5 (01:08:33):
Still interesting, interesting breakfast and.
Speaker 2 (01:08:35):
Free lunch for students and in the summertime, they can
go get a meal at school too. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (01:08:39):
So, so inflation is actually going up. And this is
so Now getting back to the FED and us in
real life, what does the hell doesn't mean to us? Right,
especially for the real appreciate perspective, it's yeah, headline headline
and market watch right, which is a pretty legitimate, non
(01:09:00):
biased review what's going on in the real estate market
and the economy. Don't expect mortgage rates to fall after
the Fed's interest rates cuts. And you're already seeing the
headline saying now kind of what we were saying back
in November twenty twenty three when they started the cuts,
say if they cut too much, we're going to start
seeing the interest rates go up really high. And that's
(01:09:23):
what happened. We had the fastest interest rate increase in
the history that they've recorded, Freddie Mack. We went up
three quarters of a point in four weeks after the
Fed cut the.
Speaker 4 (01:09:34):
Rate last year because they cut too much.
Speaker 5 (01:09:38):
Because and they were worried that the economy was not
doing good, and that's why they had such a severe cut.
Speaker 4 (01:09:44):
Which I mean, if you're talking about unemployment up, inflation up,
if the Fed's cutting rates, well, in the face of that.
Speaker 5 (01:09:55):
Well, that's the whole stagflation problem. So normally the way
that the FED, the FED is a blunt tool, and
what their job is is to make sure that we
have full employment or good employment and that things don't
cost too much. And the problem with that is is
that both of those things are at cross purposes. So normally,
(01:10:17):
what happens in the market if you have lower if
you have higher unemployment, normally prices naturally drop because you
have less consumer demand because people you have higher unemployment,
So what kind of corrects itself. And other times you
might have high inflation. But if you have okay, the
(01:10:39):
reason why you have inflation high inflation usually there's more
consumer demand because because we're employed better and they have
better jobs so they can pay more money, so they
raise the prices. But right now we're starting at the
beginning of a very tough period where they're not connected
to each other anymore. In the deposite direction, they're both
(01:11:01):
doing the same thing in a way, So unemployment is
starting to sneak up and inflation is starting to put up.
So the FED can't use their tools to fix both things.
They only they have to decide or we care about unemployment,
or we care about inflation. Everybody's betting that the Fed
is gonna bet next Wednesday that they're gonna cut the
rate because of the labor market. And what the Fed
(01:11:25):
has already said is it's much scarier for the labor market.
Once the labor market gets weak, it can get weak
really fast and go downhill really fast. Inflation takes longer
time to build up usually, So they're gonna favor and
type of the labor market, I think.
Speaker 4 (01:11:41):
So they are they saying they need to open up
access to money because people are gonna need money. Businesses
are gonna need money, consumers are gonna need money, so
we need to make it a little less painful for
them because we know they're coming for it.
Speaker 2 (01:11:54):
Yep.
Speaker 5 (01:11:56):
Is that the well, you know what they're trying to
do is they're trying to make money cheaper so that
businesses more than regular people, that businesses will still employ
people because we're going to have an employment problem. So
they're trying to give incentives to the business like, hey,
we're giving you cheap money, so hire that employee, right,
do something and hire that employee, create a job. We're
(01:12:19):
giving you loan money to borrow to do that and
leverage that to make more money. That's what happened with
the PPP loans during COVID. Right, they shove money at
the people with free money or cheap money, right that
they could use to keep employment going. So if they
do that, though, there's going to be a very good
risk that the inflation is going to go up much higher. Right,
(01:12:41):
the inflation is going to because if we get stronger
consumer demand because of the cheap money, just the consumers
are going to be able to get cheap money too.
It isn't just going to be the business owners.
Speaker 4 (01:12:51):
But I mean, you got to think that the I
want to say, you know, the FED chair, it's not
the FED chair, it's the border governor. The border gover
have to know, like they are egle eye on inflation.
So they have to be able to say like, okay,
well when we do this what you just predicted, like
(01:13:12):
they got to they got to be out in front
of that. They think inflation is going to go up,
are going to lower them the FED by you know,
half a point or whatever it is, and then they're
going to be watching inflation and then.
Speaker 5 (01:13:21):
What Well, that's what happened from nineteen seventy six, seventy
seven until eighty two eighty three. That's what we went through.
So how they decided to deal it with it back then?
In order they decided that inflation was worse than the unemployment,
and unemployment went sky high at that point, right, I
think they were nine percent.
Speaker 4 (01:13:44):
So they took their eye off the unemployment ball.
Speaker 5 (01:13:46):
They had to fight inflation. The inflation was so crazy,
so they they stifled the inflation by having so many
people unemployed. They couldn't buy stuff, and the businesses or
the companies had to reduce their price is to survive, right,
And but it had to be that bad. We had
to get to like super.
Speaker 4 (01:14:05):
High we saw, right, we just saw like there's another
chart here as the inflation chart, there's nine. It was
basically June of twenty twenty two, and it took a
year to get down to three. Right, So one year later,
which is where they bumped up. You know, we all
remember that rates went a little bit crazy.
Speaker 5 (01:14:23):
So even the headline of Mark where it says don't
expect mortgage rates to fall after the Fed cut rates,
here's the other sub headline, waiting for the Fed to
cut mortgage rates, Waiting for the Fed to cut so
mortgage rates will go down is a flawed idea. This
is according to a professor that specializes in real estate.
Speaker 4 (01:14:43):
Just one guy though, yeah, yeah, right, mind.
Speaker 5 (01:14:46):
But here, but here's the thing. We're one guy plus
Florida talk you're preaching. So here's the here's the thing
is that this is what we wanted to bring it
back to real world. You already got your cuts people,
if you're waiting when you get those headlines next week
saying the Fed cut the rate a quarter point or
(01:15:06):
even a half point, they're saying in this article on
market Watch that we've already got the FED cut rate
built in and the last time and they said, if
the Fed cuts the rate of half a point, we
may go through that same cycle we did last year,
where this rate right now is the lowest we're going
to get, and if the Fed cuts a half a point,
(01:15:26):
it might start edging up again. Now it might not
shoot up, but the.
Speaker 4 (01:15:30):
Last year they were expecting a quarter and they came
out with a half, So now everyone's expecting a half.
I don't think it's going to be three quarter. So
maybe it's like, okay, they do you.
Speaker 5 (01:15:39):
Think I didn't catch that. Do you think most people
are a half now, Mike, because I thought it was
conventional wisdom was a quarter.
Speaker 4 (01:15:45):
I've heard half.
Speaker 5 (01:15:46):
Oh you've heard half experts?
Speaker 4 (01:15:48):
Do I you know that I can tell you this much?
I mean, Johnny, is it a coincidence that we've gone
down almost a half a point in the last two months?
Is that a coinketing?
Speaker 2 (01:16:02):
I would say it's very possible that it could be
a coincidence, right, But also just be like summertime, it
feels very summer. It feels very likely that they're built in.
You just paid attention to.
Speaker 4 (01:16:13):
Your point, Jim, Like, if you're waiting for the Fed
to do their thing, well, you missed the boat, right.
We've talked about this, like if you're waiting for rates
to get better, and that's like in your mind, hey,
rates got to get better. You might have some benchmark,
maybe you're not even there. Maybe six and a half
or six and a quarter, isn't it. Maybe you need
to be four something, right, that's fine. But if you've
been waiting, kind of waiting in the wings for the
(01:16:35):
stars to align where you need rates to get a
little bit better, You need prices to get a little
bit more you know in your favor, you need negotiation,
Like right now you're on the leading edge of that,
because it's possible you've already been that for You've already
got half a point movement that you were hoping for
(01:16:56):
right here. Now is the time to do that. Next week,
if anything, we could see it stay flat. But it
ain't going down another half a point. We're not going
to be a five point seventy five two weeks from now, right.
I wouldn't predict that.
Speaker 5 (01:17:12):
No, no, no, if that happens, That's what I'm ting. That's
the other thing I want to people. When people say
they want to be under five or something, the first
thing I say to them, Oh, you want a COVID economy.
Oh right, because that's why we went down to those
super low rates in the threes and even the twos.
Speaker 4 (01:17:29):
You might want a COVID economy if you are, you
got a lot of equity, you're ready to transition to
retirement or to make that move, and you want to
sell high and then take your money and buy low
and downsize with it.
Speaker 5 (01:17:41):
But what I'm saying is the country has to be
an economic crisis to get down to those levels again.
So that's what you're hoping for if you're asking for
those super low rates and not reasonable rates. And rates
have gotten more reasonable. The prices have gotten softer, and
the sellers have gotten more motivated. The sellers have gotten softer,
the prices of that sealest, Yeah, the price of gotten softer,
(01:18:04):
and the sellers have become more motivated in general. And
also what we've seen is here's another trend I wanted
to bring up. You know how we've been looking at
all the properties for sale and the MLS, and we
started out in the high mid to high forties, and
we got all the way up to sixty two or
sixty five thousand. We're at fifty seven thousand now. So
what that means is it isn't that we've had a
(01:18:26):
tremendous amount of sales, because sales are still slow. We're
down about twenty five percent from the average normal sales.
But what's happened is all the unmotivated sellers or a
lot of them have pulled out of the market. Has
said if I can't get what I want from my house,
I'm not selling it. So now we have more serious
sellers out there, like a pool, a more concentrated pool
(01:18:48):
of serious sellers. Right, So this is the perfect storm
for buyers to come in and get what they want,
unless you're waiting for a crisis where you you know,
you see house pricing houses, house price icing tumble twenty
five percent or something. Right. But if that's something like
that were to happen, or if we get to our
interest rates into like you know, low fives or even
(01:19:10):
high fours, it's because a lot of people are unemployed, guys,
and you won't be able to buy the house. There'll
be so many people unemployed. A lot of those people
that are waiting, they might become squatters, part of the
unemployed group, and not be able to buy buy anything.
Speaker 4 (01:19:24):
That home that's been for sale for six months, all
of a sudden it has squatters. I'll tell you what.
We talked about it all the time. What you're waiting for, guys,
is a payment that works right budget.
Speaker 5 (01:19:35):
Right, So so don't try to outsmart yourself.
Speaker 4 (01:19:40):
Those stars may be aligning, that's the whole point. They
may be, they may not be. Might you might still
just be blown out of the water as far as
prices and where your payment's going to land. And that's okay.
As long as you know that, as long as you
know Johnny, you come to me say Mike, I gotta
be at twenty eight hundred dollars a month, no more
than that or whatever your number is, and we say, yes,
that's fine, you can do that. Now you not sit back,
(01:20:03):
but you're kind of leaning back, watching and you're looking
at certain things, and you're looking at neighborhoods, and you're
looking at price points, and you're looking at a payment
estimator that's accurate. Those stars might be aligning and it
might be now ish versus next month, for example.
Speaker 2 (01:20:24):
But you don't But you won't know that unless you know,
unless you have access to that information, those numbers.
Speaker 4 (01:20:32):
And do some staging.
Speaker 5 (01:20:33):
And here's another indicator that things could turn against the
buyers right that people aren't noticing. I read a report yesterday.
I'm sure it came out a lot of places. We
had the biggest surge of home buyer applications last week
compared to like the last two years or something. It
was like there were a long time, maybe not two years.
Speaker 4 (01:20:56):
I didn't see that on my personal level, or even
my the branch level. I don't think I saw that.
Speaker 5 (01:21:01):
Hey, that's what I wanted to say, where all the
buyers from Florida talk real estate. I'm not We put
out so many emails over the last several weeks telling buyers, look,
you got to give us a call. If you think
about it, it's crickets chripping, right, we're all the buyers
because I'm not seeing the athlete, you know, people going
to me, Hey, it's time for me to buy a house. Anyway.
I'm a little frustrated about that because I'm seeing the
(01:21:23):
national like, wait a second, I am I being left
out right now.
Speaker 2 (01:21:27):
It might be in the States where people feel like
that's where they want to be, and I don't know
that Florida quite holds that clout anymore. It just doesn't.
It's not that everybody's going to anymore. It's Texas, It's Tennessee,
you know what I mean, It's the Carolina still.
Speaker 4 (01:21:42):
It's also like schools back and said, we have these normal,
like seasonal cycles. Right, It's a little bit different in
Florida because we don't have the extreme changes, but it's
like normal that the end of summer things slow down,
like that's just normal. Jim, am I wrong about that?
Like things?
Speaker 5 (01:22:00):
Yeah, but if the rest of the nation is having
a youth surgeon, we're not getting any or I shouldn't
say we're not getting anything, but I'm really surprised that
our you know, our listeners and our demographic, they're not
picking up the bus. It's time for me to do something.
Speaker 4 (01:22:12):
I'm so desensitized to these the headlines right, like the headlines. Oh,
I know, it's like it's so chasing the lead or
whatever they call that, like it's it's just leth.
Speaker 5 (01:22:23):
But let me, let me explain what could be happening
for buyers that might get them say okay, I gotta
do it now. Right, you have shrinking inventory. That's not
good for buyers in general, right, because that turns into
more of a buyer's a seller's market. But we're still
but we also have it. Yes, we're still in a
buyer's market, but we have shrinking invatory. The indicators are
(01:22:45):
right now shrinking inventory, which's been happening for months, and
now we have surge of buyers coming through for applications
because going to so now what's going to happen. You're
going to have a lot of buyers looking at less
properties and now you're going to be. It isn't going
to be like it is today where you can negotiate
as good as you can today. If the house is hot,
(01:23:06):
you're going to be competing with people again, and we
haven't had that in a very long time.
Speaker 4 (01:23:10):
I just think you have to be like if you
want to win, right, you talked about that people want
to win, You can't not be prepared, right. You have
to do some minimal prep if you want to be
able to find the right thing and get a good
deal on it. Right Where the the the setup here
(01:23:31):
is that you are a buyer I meaning you're ready.
You've you're at a point in your life where like
buying your house, this next house, whatever it does makes sense.
Now you're just waiting for those those conditions to be
right so you feel good about the deal that you're getting.
You don't want to be like pressured into it. Like
you've got some time, you can be patient, Well, do
some do get yourself set up so that you can
(01:23:53):
take advantage when it hits like this is what we're
talking about. If rates come down, the natural is inventory
is going to decrease. Right late rates come down, buyers
come out, especially buyers who have been waiting they come out,
more buyers, less inventory. You're not gonna be able to
get what you want on the price of the home
the negotiations with the sellers. So yeah, you might have
(01:24:14):
won on the rate, but you might have lost on
price essentially, right, So you can't there's no way to
be that winner unless you've done the prep work. The
groundwork puts yourself in a position where you can pull
the trigger when the opportunity presents itself.
Speaker 2 (01:24:35):
Facts. Yeah, eight seven seven nine two seven six nine
six nine. Plenty of time remaining on this Saturday, about
twenty three minutes or so. If you'd like to be
a part of the conversation, if you have a question,
a common a concern about the conversation, don't be shy.
Still plenty of time remaining. Of course, if you're not
comfortable on the radio. Always remember Florida Talkrealestate dot com.
You're one stop real estate shop, all the pros pros
(01:24:57):
in one place, Florida Talk real Estate Com.
Speaker 5 (01:25:00):
Thank you, Johnny. I figured we just messed around a
little bit on the MLS just to have a little
bit of fun today. So we have fifty.
Speaker 4 (01:25:07):
Seven Yeah, right, real estates messed around on the MLS. Yeah,
last party.
Speaker 5 (01:25:15):
We have a party, Like, we have fifty seven thousand
homes for sale in the general MLS. Now, there are
homes like in Jacksonville and out of country and stuff
that are are like sprinkled into this thing. So I
wanted to narrow down. So out of the fifty seven thousand,
twelve thousand of them are in Palm Beach County now,
(01:25:38):
not single family homes, all homes, right, So now I'm
going to go into single family homes in Palm Beach County.
Hold on here, one suck it. And out of those
twelve thousand, only forty eight hundred or single family homes.
So we have five thousand, four thousand, eight hundred and
(01:25:58):
ninety eight single family homes available for sale in pom
Beach County right now. I'm just picking that county.
Speaker 2 (01:26:03):
The rest is.
Speaker 5 (01:26:04):
Condos, condos, townhomes, mobile homes, land you know, to be
all in that family single family no townhome is a
separate category. Villa. So the categories are villa, single family, townhome, condo,
mobile home, manufactured home is one category, and then I
(01:26:24):
think land. I think those are the five. They don't
really have commercial by land, right, they don't really have
commercial in there that much. Okay, So out of the
forty eight thousand homes, I'm just curious, what's the cheapest
pomp Beach County home for sale right now? I thought
that would be the cheapest. Yeah, the lowest price home
in Palm Beach County right now.
Speaker 4 (01:26:46):
Thirty nine thousand.
Speaker 2 (01:26:47):
Yeah. I was going to say, there's some there's some
sweetheart in the glade. Yeah, it's seventy two thousand dollars.
Speaker 3 (01:26:55):
Okay, say, because I'm thinking along those condo, No condos, right.
Speaker 5 (01:27:04):
Just single family home for this category.
Speaker 3 (01:27:06):
Right, and what is that mobile home too, because that.
Speaker 5 (01:27:08):
No, just single family, single family Okay, So let's say, okay,
so Johnny, you're you get uh an a an a
for that seventy thousand, not seventy two. Yeah, seventy thousand.
It was Yeah, he did go over, but still that's
pretty good. So seventy seventy thousand. It's an eight hundred
(01:27:31):
square foot nineteen forty five wood frame home, eight hundred
square feet, one bedroom, one baths in Bell Glade. Yeah,
seventy thousand dollars. And they're saying that it's good for
a fixer upper or just tear it down and build
something new.
Speaker 4 (01:27:45):
Is that the one that's built on the sinkhole?
Speaker 5 (01:27:47):
Yeah, exactly right, but it is. It's funny. It is lifted,
you know those old houses, because there's so much luck
out there. So it's on stilt. It's only up like
you know, it's a couple of center blocks high, but
it's lifted, so it's the wood floor joists and you
can crawl underneath. And the reason why they build a
lot of this house out there because the muck out
there the is so great for sugarcane and everything.
Speaker 4 (01:28:09):
It's not good for building. It is very so just
every few years you jack up the house and put
another center.
Speaker 5 (01:28:17):
You go get your carjack.
Speaker 4 (01:28:19):
I'm excited about that price.
Speaker 2 (01:28:23):
Still.
Speaker 5 (01:28:24):
So here's but here's here's kind of something interesting question though,
So what do you think the second lowest price would be?
If seventy is the lowest and there's forty eight hundred
homes for sale, what do you think the second lowest
price would be?
Speaker 3 (01:28:37):
Seventy thousand and one?
Speaker 4 (01:28:39):
I started thirty nine. I'm gonna say one thirty nine.
Speaker 5 (01:28:41):
Okay, oh yeah, I was going one. Well, you guys
are good that you went up jumped a lot higher
than the seventy because it wasn't like seventy thousand and one.
It's one hundred and five thousand. Okay, So this one
hundred and five thousand home is on eighth Street in
Lake whar It's a one bedroom, one bath, eight hundred
(01:29:02):
and sixty square feet. It was built in nineteen twenty five, right,
so the house is one hundred years old years old.
It's boarded up. They don't have any pictures on the inside.
It's only been on the market three days. If you're
interested in one hundred and five thousand dollars home, it's
in downtown.
Speaker 4 (01:29:19):
Let's gonna say location, location, location, as well as like
George Burns.
Speaker 5 (01:29:23):
Like this one. This one's actually is pretty close to Federal,
not Dixie is close to Federal, which is a little
farther east than I would expect. But anyway, uh, anyway,
that the one hundred and five, and then after that
then it becomes like, and here's the next thing, the.
Speaker 2 (01:29:41):
Third How long is that has one on the market?
Speaker 5 (01:29:43):
This one's good question. This one's been on the market.
Let me changed the view. This one's been on the market.
Hold on, just bear with me.
Speaker 2 (01:29:52):
Florida Talk real Estate dot Com. Thank you Johnny real
Estate Shop.
Speaker 5 (01:29:56):
This one has been wait, it changed everyth.
Speaker 4 (01:30:01):
It says on market, Jim, No, they.
Speaker 2 (01:30:05):
Changed all the vocalized navigation.
Speaker 5 (01:30:08):
Three it's only been on the market. No, Yeah, that
one's only been on the market three days. The Bell
Glade's been on the market one hundred and seventeen Okay, okay.
Now the third one, and this is a very good
lesson for sellers. The third lowest price home in Palm
Beach County for single family is a property that's a condo.
(01:30:28):
So they have it listed as a single family home.
But it's a condo and it's not it's a real condo.
It's in uh, it's in a very well known fifty
five and over community. This can't be more of a
condo than this condo, right, They have it listed wrong?
So what does that mean this poor seller? How long
(01:30:48):
has this been on the market. This poor seller has
been on the market one hundred and thirty five days, okay,
and they have it down as a single family home.
So anybody looking for a single family home is finding
this property. But anybody looking for a condo with this
price in this neighborhood is not finding this property, So
this property is not on the MLS for this seller.
(01:31:09):
Happened to them. This happens quite frequently reilters. A lot
of realtors right now are super green because a lot
of lters left because of the bad economy, and there's
a lot of brand new rilters out there are very
green relters, and they're making mistakes like this all the time.
Do you know how mad I would be were the seller?
Do you recognize I only found it? No, I don't.
Speaker 2 (01:31:31):
It is highly desirable in a lot of eyes too.
Speaker 5 (01:31:34):
Oh, you know what, Let's go ahead And you said that,
but let's go. Let's go ahead and do this.
Speaker 4 (01:31:38):
You know that you're listening to me.
Speaker 5 (01:31:41):
You know what I'm gonna do.
Speaker 2 (01:31:42):
What do you say?
Speaker 4 (01:31:43):
Condo?
Speaker 2 (01:31:45):
Village?
Speaker 5 (01:31:45):
It even says condo.
Speaker 4 (01:31:47):
When Jim says this is there's nothing more condo than
this kindo. I'm thinking like central.
Speaker 5 (01:31:51):
Village, century village. King's point, That's what I'm thinking.
Speaker 4 (01:31:55):
Visually. I'm thinking, uh uh, you know, a building on
the beach.
Speaker 2 (01:32:00):
I think Palm County epitome of like condo living. I
think century village for fifty five plus, he said, fifty
five plus though.
Speaker 5 (01:32:07):
Yeah, all right, so this person, I'm not going to
bring up names, and I'm not bringing up properties because
I'm not trying to be bad to somebody. But I'm
being real here, what's.
Speaker 4 (01:32:18):
The first name and last.
Speaker 2 (01:32:19):
Yeah, yeah, it's the address.
Speaker 5 (01:32:23):
I'm just scanning for him because he's got a very
common name. Almost there.
Speaker 4 (01:32:26):
There might be a reason. How do you stand out
from the crowd You make a huge mistake in your listening?
Speaker 2 (01:32:34):
Well you definitely, that's the opposite. I think.
Speaker 4 (01:32:36):
See the Century Village is a little funky because they
are kind of single family homes, like you think about them, right,
They're not like in a building, people above you, people below,
people on the side.
Speaker 5 (01:32:48):
This agent, this agent of them below the station is.
Speaker 4 (01:32:53):
I don't know. Is that Century Village a two floor unit?
Most of most of those units. I thought it was
single family like.
Speaker 5 (01:32:59):
No the off flats, Yeah nobody. Uh you know, they're
in multif multi story buildings, just like regular condos, just
like you, just like your mom's place. But six thousand
units in the I only know.
Speaker 2 (01:33:11):
That they went two stories. They go higher than two.
Speaker 5 (01:33:13):
Stories, some of them go through. Okay, so so this
this person, I have to give this person credit there.
They're in production, they have retirement, they have a you know,
they they're definitely in production, this agent. But they have
three closings and they've got seventeen listings and days on market.
(01:33:37):
It's all over the place. I can't complain because my
days on market have been great either lately. You know,
it's part of the market.
Speaker 2 (01:33:42):
It's the market.
Speaker 5 (01:33:43):
But this guy made a big mistake. Of course, I'm
going to reach out to him, let them know how
you made a big mistake, and trying to let him know.
But a lot of people don't do that.
Speaker 4 (01:33:51):
He can blame his people.
Speaker 5 (01:33:53):
It could just be as busy.
Speaker 4 (01:33:54):
He might have his nancy that never makes mistakes.
Speaker 5 (01:33:57):
But I see this stuff all the time. Like if
you see this stuff all the time. Now, just out
of curiosity, we're going to go flip side. Now, just
beer with me. We're going to go most expensive house
in Palm Beach County. Oh, we're going to go completely opposite.
So we're going from seventy thousand and bill late all
the way to the house, yep, all the way.
Speaker 4 (01:34:16):
So can I ask you, Jim, just real quick before
you get that, is it a good strategy. So instead
of like sitting down with you and like figuring out bedrooms,
bathrooms and town can I just go in and just
sort it like descending, and I just start at the
very cheapest and then work my way to find the
home that I want.
Speaker 5 (01:34:32):
That's how I usually do when I'm doing an investment.
I set up my search and I find I start
off with the cheapest home and then I go up right.
So that's how I do it. A buyer should do
that too, if they know exactly what they want, you know,
or if you're not sure, you want to get a flavor,
you know, start out. I always let's see.
Speaker 4 (01:34:49):
It, like, say I need three bedrooms, two bathrooms, at
least put that in there.
Speaker 5 (01:34:53):
So let's say somebody's looking for a three bedroom, two
bath in Wellington and they want to pay five hundred.
I'm just making up which is a little bit lower
price point for Wellington. Right, there's still a lot of
properties for sale and Wellington at five hundred. But let's
say that's what you're looking for. What I would do
if I were doing the search, Mike is I would
not go from like put it from four hundred, you know,
(01:35:14):
four hundred or more and then cap at it five hundred. Right,
what I would do is five hundred or less, because
you might end up finding a deal at three eighty
five that you totally are in love with that needs
fixing up er, that needs fixing up er, and you're
willing to do for that home at that property in
that neighborhood because it's just perfect year. It's like, I'll
(01:35:36):
go ahead and do the fixing up as opposed to
looking for the more ready to go house that's closer
to your five hundred thousand dollars budget. And you would
never see that three eighty five home if you didn't
bring it down to zero.
Speaker 4 (01:35:49):
You could also top it out at like five point fifty.
You just think, like, what happens if there's that five
eighteen property, Well, you know what I to missing?
Speaker 5 (01:35:55):
Very good, very good thing. So somebody, if you give me,
somebody is qualified for five five hundred. What I normally
do in today's market is set the search up for
five point fifty, not because I'm trying to get the
buyer to upsell, but because five point fifty we might
be able to get it to five hundred in the negotiation.
Speaker 4 (01:36:13):
It's been on the market for one hundred and twenty days.
Speaker 5 (01:36:14):
But in a hot market, if you're good for five hundred,
and we're in that COVID frenzied market thing, if you're
good for five hundred, I'm not putting the search above
five hundred because at five hundred you're probably paying five ten,
five point fifteen, five twenty five in that market. So
I'll set it a five hundred, and we're hoping that
will be that you can get it for that. Really,
(01:36:37):
you're going to probably buy a property for four to
seventy five and offer five hundred in a top market,
which just shows you the difference. This is real life
difference of what we were just talking about in that
last segment, right, you know what I mean? Real life example.
So which city I'm not going to ask you, well,
I'm going to ask your price. First. What's the most
expensive home for sale in Palm Beach County? Right now?
Speaker 4 (01:37:00):
It's got to be on Jupiter Island?
Speaker 5 (01:37:03):
Oh yeah, but how much? First? I changed my mind?
How much? What do you think is the price?
Speaker 4 (01:37:10):
One hundred and thirty nine million?
Speaker 5 (01:37:12):
Okay?
Speaker 2 (01:37:14):
How much was that one that sold last year? On?
It was one eighties?
Speaker 4 (01:37:20):
Is that right? Something like that Yeah, a million, currently
nine million.
Speaker 5 (01:37:25):
Yeah, this is currently for sale, currently for sale.
Speaker 3 (01:37:28):
I'm going to say ten million, but I'm probably.
Speaker 5 (01:37:29):
Ten ten million, one hundred and twenty million, two hundred
and eighty five million, one.
Speaker 2 (01:37:39):
Hundred million, A record sale last year. That was like
a record sale last year.
Speaker 5 (01:37:44):
No, what's what city is it in.
Speaker 2 (01:37:48):
That same one, Tarpen Springs or whatever? It is that
same island.
Speaker 4 (01:37:54):
I was gonna say Jupiter Island. Don't know if that's
a city or not.
Speaker 5 (01:37:58):
I don't know each in I thought most people, if
you ask them, I think, be regular people. Everybody says
Palm Beach, right because they think of Moro Lago and
it is super rich over there, right. But Manalapan and
Manalopan is on, I think it might be more. I
think the highest per capita income or per capita house
(01:38:18):
is Jupiter Isles, not Palm Beach or Manalopants, but might
be changing. I think that's south of the Palm Beach Island, yes,
south Palm Beach line, yes, so Manalapans. So this house
is a fifty thousand square foot home. That's it. It's
two hundred and eighty five million, and it's been on
the market two hundred and forty days. Now, what what
(01:38:38):
does have? Right? What would be the number two home?
Just like we did seventy to one oh five? Right,
what is the second most expensive home in the county
right now?
Speaker 4 (01:38:48):
Well, it's got to be somebody keeping up with the Joness.
So I'm gonna say two No. One, one eighty nine,
two fifty five.
Speaker 5 (01:38:59):
One fifty. So the first questions you had, you guys
were closer with the second highest price, And what city
is it.
Speaker 4 (01:39:06):
In's got to be Pombychil.
Speaker 5 (01:39:10):
This one's in Manalapan, and it's right and it's right
down the road from the other one. And they both
went on the market within twenty days, so they're definitely
competing with each other market a year. But the fifty, yeah,
they've been on the market nine months for sure, and
the fifty thousand and one, the one to fifty, you're
slumming it at twenty nine and forty five square feet
(01:39:30):
and by that's, by the way, that's living square feet,
not not under roof, Okay, under roof. The second biggest house,
the twenty nine thousand is really thirty five thousand under roof.
Speaker 4 (01:39:42):
What is a monthly cost on a two hundred million
dollars for taxes. No, just like a maintenance. What do
you gotta pay every month? I have no forget about
your mortgage just to own it.
Speaker 2 (01:39:51):
I don't know if I can afford the electric bill.
Speaker 5 (01:39:55):
I know, right, I wonder you want to say, let's
see what the taxes are. Okay, let's just see what SCD.
So the twenty twenty four taxes were only three hundred
and ninety four thousand and eighteen dollars.
Speaker 2 (01:40:07):
Oh, that's bad.
Speaker 5 (01:40:08):
That's it three ninety four, right, divide that by twelve?
What's that by twelve? Min four hundred divided by twelve,
which totally limited probably twenty five. It's got like thirty five,
four hundred thirty forty thirty four thousand a month month.
Speaker 2 (01:40:21):
That's one house.
Speaker 5 (01:40:22):
Yeah, one house.
Speaker 2 (01:40:23):
Think of the money they make it probably is that?
Speaker 5 (01:40:26):
Is that crazy? So now, now the thing that's kind
of interesting. The third most expensive home on the market
right now is been on the market two hundred and
twelve DALs. It's right down the road from all these,
So all these three went on the market at the
same time. Now, this one's only eighteen thousand square feet
under air and they're only asking eighty seven million. So
(01:40:48):
look at the top three, two, eighty five, one, fifteen,
and then it drops to eighty seven. And then once
you hit eighty seven, then it starts clustering.
Speaker 4 (01:40:56):
It seems like a conspiracy over there on Manouth. Then
they're trying to get appraised values up for the neighborhood.
That's what's happening. There's no sales. But look at these
active listings, right, So these active listings per price per
square foot.
Speaker 5 (01:41:11):
So for twenty million or more, how many Palm Beach,
how many homes in Palm Beach County or for sale
that are twenty million or more? So we know the
top is two hundred and eighty five. If you go
all the way down to twenty how many homes we
have five thousand homes for soon in the county?
Speaker 4 (01:41:28):
Teez, I would say less than one hundred.
Speaker 5 (01:41:31):
You're right, Mike, eighty six eighty six homes are twenty
million or more. Actually eighty seven twenty million or more. Yeah,
So anyway, kind of interesting is like life of two worlds.
Bell Glades seventy thousand dollars, right, and Manalapan two hundred
and eighty five million, right, you gotta love the country
in It's like.
Speaker 4 (01:41:51):
Those two people could cross each other driving.
Speaker 5 (01:41:53):
On they're thirty miles away from each other, right, they're
thirty minutes, not thirty miles. Thirty minutes drive away from
each other, right, crazy? Right?
Speaker 2 (01:42:01):
Crazy?
Speaker 5 (01:42:02):
Isn't that crazy? So just to give you so, you know,
just to give you an idea the the the cheap
homes in the county, most of them are super ancient.
They're fixer uppers. Sometimes they're teardowns, things like that, you know,
so you have to keep that in mind. And also
sometimes the neighborhoods are super high crime. You know, you
(01:42:25):
have to worry about that too. Sometimes on the lower
price homes.
Speaker 2 (01:42:27):
I want to bring up something that's totally different from
the topic you're talking about, highest lowest price on the
MLS just because we're really short on time here, and
if you don't mind, I squeeze the sea please. I
find it really interesting and I'm always curious to see
how the dominoes fall and what the effects are when
things happen. So, as you know, we got into COVID,
you started to see the products every the things we're
(01:42:49):
looking for go up because of the supply chain, it was,
you know, and then things have settled in the supply chains.
Well back it's healthy again. Now we're falling into like
the uncertainty of effects of tariffs and et cetera. But
I did see that building supplies would in particular, lumber
in particular, is starting to really not just come down
(01:43:12):
a little bit, like massively come down. That in a
moment becomes an interesting component for new construction, because if
it costs a lot less to build a new home,
doesn't that put pressure on the existing homes? Like isn't
there going to be a cause and effect If you
can get your new home built considerably cheaper, Why am
(01:43:35):
I gonna buy this twenty year old house for what
you're asking.
Speaker 5 (01:43:39):
That's happening right now. It's happening right this second. So
Ports Saint lucis.
Speaker 2 (01:43:43):
Well but considerably cheaper. So as lumber gets the cost
of lumber gets slashed. Well, now I'm not I'm not
even paying for what you're asking on this home you
just built, because you can build me a new one cheaper,
because I know what your lumber costs.
Speaker 5 (01:43:55):
Now, Well, the thing is is that I don't know
where you're getting your information that's saying you're wrong. Just
but I just listened to the Prime Minister of Canada
and they give us twenty five percent of all the lumber.
We use most of it for housing, and they cut
us off completely. We're losing twenty eight million cubic feet
of wood from Canada. So that's Canada that supplies.
Speaker 2 (01:44:19):
That's a variable listening. That's a variable that was not
included in the the stats about lumber cost that I consume.
So the reality is, is lumbers cheaper, but we may
not have access to it in the in the rate
that we want.
Speaker 5 (01:44:35):
Because I think if it is cheaper, it's going to
go up because we have to fill the void. You know,
we're not. We're going to lose twenty five percent of
our inventory. So it's a supply demand thing.
Speaker 4 (01:44:46):
There also may be construction materials.
Speaker 5 (01:44:50):
Would roofing materials, roofing materials, roofing right, they might have
to switch to that. You might have to switch. Well,
that happened in the COVID thing. They couldn't get impact
slide and glass doors, so they just started they just
started put in French doors. Did that happened to.
Speaker 3 (01:45:05):
You or they were no, it didn't have us, but
I remember us we've talked about it on the show,
or we also read about it in articles.
Speaker 5 (01:45:13):
They you know, they were they.
Speaker 3 (01:45:14):
Were selling homes with without the slider even on the house.
Speaker 4 (01:45:18):
Just block it. Yeah, yeah, and you know we'll come
back when.
Speaker 5 (01:45:21):
We get we'll.
Speaker 4 (01:45:22):
Come back installid. I mean I remember talking about that.
Speaker 5 (01:45:25):
At one point you could get the sliders but not
the handles for the slider, and they were stuck. The
builders were stuck. So they just swapped them out to
French doors. And maybe they did what Jimmy said, but I.
Speaker 3 (01:45:37):
Think that they were coming up with creative ways. Well,
we got to get the sail through. We don't want
to sit on this until we get you know, the
material in, which could have been months.
Speaker 5 (01:45:47):
And Canada is also a big supply for roofing materials.
I think shingles, more shingles than like roofing like piles.
So that's another big hit to us. That's going to
be a shock to the builders. I'm thinking the building
look very down right now, so I don't.
Speaker 4 (01:46:03):
Which could be an opportunity. So I guess to Johnny's point,
if you are a buyer and new construction homes are
generally in your price zone, it's worth looking at the
may deal.
Speaker 5 (01:46:13):
Absolutely, That's why Jimmy did what he did. That's a
really smart move if you can afford the new home
and you're okay with either being in a planned community
doesn't have to be gated. Some people don't like that,
but Jimmy didn't. He bought a brand new home, brand
new construction, in a single lot and he has no
HOA fee. The builder came in and built a home
(01:46:34):
on the lot. So there are a lot of opportunities
out there for that, and especially if you're older, you
really should look at new construction versus resale. Why is
that because let's say you buy a house it's sixty
five or something, right, and you maybe your income's going
to change the next few years because you're retiring and
you have a roof that's ten years old when you
(01:46:57):
buy it.
Speaker 4 (01:46:57):
Ah, so your long term capital expenses are yeah, further.
Speaker 5 (01:47:01):
See new waters, new roof. You want to be careful
about those kinds of things.
Speaker 4 (01:47:04):
But they don't make them like they used to, jim
You know, they ac is going out in every five years, appliances.
Speaker 2 (01:47:12):
Cheese, they don't make them like they use to.
Speaker 3 (01:47:15):
I've had some expenses that I really wasn't expecting. Yeah, refrigerator,
air conditioning.
Speaker 4 (01:47:20):
You've had the replacement the new house.
Speaker 5 (01:47:24):
Yes, Oh I want to talk to you about that.
Speaker 4 (01:47:27):
What happened? What happened with the fridge?
Speaker 2 (01:47:29):
The ice maker?
Speaker 5 (01:47:31):
Oh yeah, that's kind of more of a common thing.
And I guess how much about three hundred to five hundred,
five hundred Ye yep, because that happened to me.
Speaker 4 (01:47:41):
Five dollars.
Speaker 5 (01:47:42):
But was it under warranty?
Speaker 3 (01:47:44):
Because it was over a year.
Speaker 2 (01:47:45):
You don't how many ice trains you could have bought
for five hundred bucks.
Speaker 4 (01:47:48):
For bags ice exactly? Are you just cut back on
margarita weekend? You know? You know.
Speaker 5 (01:47:55):
Now you're talking crazy way, Yeah, you're crazy.
Speaker 2 (01:47:59):
You can cut back weekend. Thank you very much for
being with us on a Saturday. Always great to know
you're out there. Remember Florida Talk real Estate is a
team of pros, pros and they are there for you
when you're buying a home, selling a home, stuck with
a home you don't know what to do. If you
need a professional that touches the world of real estate,
(01:48:20):
I got one for you, the one stop real estate shop.
It's Florida Talkrealestate dot Com on Facebook, on YouTube, consume away,
share as well, because you can change the lives with
the prospros at Florida Talkrealestate dot Com. Like Mike Row
the mortgage guy from the mortgage firm, have a great weekend,
my friend.
Speaker 4 (01:48:35):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (01:48:35):
Thanks everybody like Jimmy de over here, Jim Depolo with
the Florida Home Pros team. I hope you have a
great weekend as well. Thank you, sir, Jimmythy have an
awesome weekend, my friend.
Speaker 3 (01:48:44):
You as well, Johnny, Mike, Jim, have a great weekend
and thank you for listening.
Speaker 2 (01:48:48):
Enjoy the margueritea weekend. I hope that ice is cold, yeah,
and thank you for being with us. I saw Joe,
I saw Greek. That means they're already in a rock
and roll squeeze out of sports show. We got Gator
football this weekend. Lots to have as long as you're
sticking around, so please plan on doing that. Have a
great weekend. We'll see you next Saturday. Florida Talk Real
Estate right here on Real Radio
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