Cincy 360 -- Austin Elmore with Jeff Carr and Steve Offenbaker

Austin talks Reds at the All-Star break with Jeff and Steve from the LockedOn Reds Podcast, on ESPN 1530!

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Skyline Chile Sincy three to sixty about Cincinnati from Cincinnati,

(00:05):
sponsored in part by Skyline Chile. Stop by Skyline Chile
for a three way or chee Coney Today. Feeling good,
It's Skyline Time. This is ESPN fifteen thirty Cincinnati Sports Station.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
Hi, Hello, Welcome in Cincy. Three sixty ESPN fifteen thirty,
Cincinnati's sports Station. My name is Austin Omore. No Tony
Pike today, No Tony Pike all week. The big fella
is getting some R and R down in Florida, hanging
out with the family. It is officially load management season
for Tony Pike. He will be back next week. In

(00:41):
the meantime, it's you and I all week, and it's
All Star Break in Major League Baseball. Home Run Derby tonight,
All Star Game tomorrow, and the Reds are at the
unofficial halfway point of the season. So I thought to myself,
let's break down, Let's do the autopsy on the first
half of the red season. And who better to do

(01:03):
that with then with the guys from the Locked On
Reds podcast, Steve Offenbaker and friend of the show Jeff Carr.
Friend of the radio station, Jeff Carr making his return.
You know, when he comes in, it's fanfare. You know,
there's a parade, people lining up to shake his hands.
When Jeff Carr comes in, and I'm sitting over a
telling Steve's better, Steve's a better Steve's a better podcaster

(01:24):
than Jeff. All these people don't understand it. But Steve
and Jeff are here to talk some Reds with us,
because I think if you would have said three games
over five hundred at the All Star break, we would
have signed up for it. But I don't know that
we would have been all that excited about it. Steve,
let's start with you. How do you feel about the

(01:44):
Reds three games over at the break?

Speaker 3 (01:47):
You know, Jeff and I talked about this very question
on today's show, and the answer that kept coming to
my mind was, Man, you know, I mean, you're right.
If you told me at the beginning of the season
this team would would scrap and fight its way through
injuries and be three game over five hundred and be
in a position to do something you would naturally want
to be excited about that. Sure, but the way that
this team has performed, they've got there, but they have

(02:09):
done it in the single most frustrating way possible, each
and every time they have an opportunity to do so.
So for me, I think they've drained the emotion out
of me. They've drained the excitement out of me. They've
pulled the wind out of my sales time and time again.
And I want to be excited. I want to move
forward with this team and be energized. I need the
All Star Break just as much as they need the
All Star Break.

Speaker 2 (02:29):
I think a lot of Reds fans would say that, Jeff,
you're the optimist. You're always glass at full. How do
you feel after the unofficial first half? The All Star
break is like toms for some heartburn after you just
had too much pizza. That's what I'm feeling right now, because, like,
don't get me wrong, three games over five hundred is
all well and good, and it feels like they're within

(02:49):
striking distance of just getting into the dance. Just get
me into the playoffs, and this is exactly what I
would have signed up for. But it simply feels like
they should be better. I see different games, and this
last week was a perfect example of they were in
the first game with Colorado, should have beat them.

Speaker 1 (03:07):
There.

Speaker 2 (03:08):
Yeah, you can make the case that there were a
couple of pitches that didn't go their way in the
first game against the Marlins that then all of a
sudden the Marlins blew the doors wide open on them.
But they should have won that first game early on.
But ultimately they continue to play down or up to
their competition. So I just saw something a minute ago
that said that the Reds have the second hardest schedule

(03:28):
the rest of the way. Good. I'm glad we're not
playing bad teams, because that seems to be the teams
they lose it. Yeah, it's hard to explain how or
why they do that, and I think one of the
topics we can get into a little bit later on
is like the whole leadership thing. But to me, the
word that keeps coming back is consistency. I can't figure
out why are they so inconsistent? And that's to Steve's point.

(03:51):
What just drains you. It's like every night, it's like
colle here we go again, Like how I don't understand
that the lack of consistency. Yes, this is a young team,
but these are guys that have been in the big
leagues now for a little while. Most of them enough
to know better. How are they so inconsistent?

Speaker 3 (04:08):
Well, that's the only thing they're consistent with. And it's
been several seasons now, right. They do these things where
they go to Cleveland and win, they go to Detroit
and win, but then they lose series to the White Sox,
they lose, lose games to the Rockies.

Speaker 4 (04:20):
They split with the Fish.

Speaker 3 (04:21):
You know, this is the thing I think where I
had hoped Tito Francona would have had more of an impact.
Also when he came in, you know, the talk was
the right words, it was the right things. It's we're
going to hold players accountable, We're going to play the
game the right way. The biggest problem they've had was
the inconsistency, and I think that's the last real mountain.

(04:43):
Francona's got a climb with this team. He's got to
get them to a point where they win the series
they're supposed to win while still taking it to the
big dogs and beating the Detroits and beating the you know,
winning those games against teams that are better than five hundred.

Speaker 2 (04:56):
I felt like there was some time early on in
the season, maybe a little bit longer, that Terry Francona
was still trying to get his feet wet, trying to
like get back into a rhythm, remembering how to do this.
I mean, the guy's managed thousands of big league games.
Of course he knows how to do it. But it
was almost like he took a little bit of while
a little bit of time to knock the rust off

(05:17):
well and think about too. Where he was in his
last stop in Cleveland. He had a veteran team that
he was with for years and years and years. He
that was his team. All of the fingerprints were all
over the place from him. He walks into this situation
with a lot of young players that were really unproven,
a lot of talent but not a lot of production,
and so he's got to figure out exactly how to

(05:38):
bridge that gap, and he's also got to figure out
how he fits in with this team. It's clear that
he's the kind of guy that leads an organization through example,
and he's got like guys buying into who he is
as a manager. But then when you're you know, zero
to two and you got a run around second base
with two outs, what does that mean for the guy

(06:00):
at the plate? How does Terry Francona manage that guy
when he strikes out, because there's been a lot of
those cases, especially in this Rocky series when they go
oh for fifteen with runs in scoring, because there's the
first two games that you're like, okay, where is the
influence there? And we see it in different scenarios like
what happened on Sunday. As long as the Rockies are
gonna make mistakes, just take advantage of them. Yeah, that's

(06:21):
something they didn't do a lot of last year. How
would you grade? We're gonna get into grades. It's grading season,
it's list season, especially in football, and now at the
All Star break there's a lot of grades. How different
is the grade that you give the Reds as a
whole compared to the grade that you give Terry Francona
as a manager, Because like I feel like they're a

(06:42):
C plus. They could have been a bee, but they
shot themselves in the foot. The injuries kind of kept
them down a little bit. Overall. They weren't consistent enough
C plus because they're above five hundred and they are within,
without a doubt, striking distance of a playoff spot. And
at the end of the day, I don't want to
say the bar is that low, but can you just
get to the damn playoffs and see what happens with

(07:05):
the pitching that you have, but also felt like it
could have been better. What's the grade for each the
Reds and franco I.

Speaker 3 (07:11):
Think you're pretty spot on with the C. You know,
C is average, right, and this team is average. They're
just a little bit above five hundred. They're right in
the middle of the pack. They're doing their things. I
think ce is fair. As far as grading Francona, that's
a hard one because I feel like he struggled. He
You're right to get his feet under him, to get
the rust off, to learn the team.

Speaker 4 (07:30):
Whatever that was.

Speaker 3 (07:31):
So when you look at that, you know, I feel
like he has some detention, some weekend Saturday school going on.

Speaker 4 (07:36):
There, some remediation.

Speaker 3 (07:39):
You know, he's not failing. Maybe he's a little bit
better than a D. I think he's a C minus
on his way up. I think he gets better each
time out and the end of season grade will be
much better than that. Just the way things started and
kind of the sluggishness of the team and the way
it performed, I think that's part of it.

Speaker 2 (07:55):
But I attribute Andrew Rabbit's performances this year and the
confidence that he has on the mound to Terry Francona,
because I don't think David Bell lets him go as
deep into games as he's been going this year. I mean,
he's already got a complete game under his belt. He
was getting close to a complete game his last appearance.
I think that there's something about the way that Terry
Francona works with Derek Johnson with this pitching staff, that

(08:17):
we're seeing this starting staff get the best out of them.
And I mean even credit to him with Nick Martinez
in the way that he managed him during that weird spell,
whereas like he pitched four times in eight days and oh,
by the way, almost threw a new header on that
fourth that fourth outing. I think there's something to do.
I give Terry Francona a bee. I think that he
started out rough, he's figured out his mistakes. He ain't

(08:38):
having any in Jabou close out games anymore, Oh my gosh. Uh,
And we're not seeing those weird things, those weird like
I think the whole thing with Santiago est but all
about higher in the lineup was he just didn't trust
Matt McClain enough, then he trusts him. Now he's got
him back where he should be, and he's got Santiago
Espin all back where he should be on the bench. Yeah, gosh,

(08:59):
that was a stretch of time too, wasn't it. You
know I have written down here to talk about your
biggest concerns, you who your most confidence And I feel
like my biggest concern is Matt McLain because I think
the dude has all the stuff we need and it's
unfair to judge him because he's still got so few

(09:20):
at bats compared to everybody else miss an entire season,
but without him being the consistent guy at that two spot,
how far can the offense really go? That's my biggest concern,
And overall the starting pitching. I think you're right, Like
when it comes back to Francona. I was reading an article.

(09:41):
I think the article Gordon Whittemyer wrote about his two
thousandth career victory and how Alex Corus said he does
a great job of letting the superstars be the superstars,
or the stars be the stars. And I think he's
done a good job of like letting Andrew out Abbott
develop into a star or like there was that one
outing in San Francisco where he let Hunter Green go
that extra inning in ultimately didn't work. The Reds won

(10:02):
the game, but you know, Hunter Green maybe pitched a
little bit longer than he should have. I think that,
and like the empowerment of the players, he deserves a
lot of credit for. But at what point do they
take ownership and say, okay, this is our team? As
well as is looking to Terry Francona is like, hey,
are we doing this right? That's something that that I
think is interesting to watch how it develops over into

(10:23):
the second half.

Speaker 3 (10:23):
You know, I think Matt McClain's a good choice for
you know, who are we most concerned or who do
we need to have the consistency? For me, it's Hunter Green,
whom you just mentioned.

Speaker 4 (10:31):
I am.

Speaker 3 (10:31):
I have never, at least I don't recall, maybe you
guys do a time where there was an injury to
a superstar pitcher like this and everybody was just kind
of shrugging their shoulders and going, we don't know, Yeah,
he's hurt.

Speaker 4 (10:43):
He says he's hurt. We don't know.

Speaker 3 (10:44):
The MRI looks good, but we're just gonna have to
let Hunter tell us when he can pitch. I don't
remember a time where it was like, yeah, he's hurt,
but we don't know why, and we don't know when
he's coming back or if he's coming back. So that's
that's a big deal because with him, this rotation is
pretty good heading into a potential wildcard. Without him, we're
talking trade deadline. You may have to go get a

(11:06):
starter if you don't have him, because Chase Burns is
gonna have a pitch limit. Ray Miley's probably not coming back.
Chase Petty is not the answer this season. You're gonna
need another arm. So he's the real wildcard, and for me,
my big concern lies there. They get him back, looks
good for a wildcard push. They don't get him back.
There's a lot more questions than there are answers.

Speaker 2 (11:26):
That's true. Am I allowed to say Nick Krawl? Yes?
I think my biggest concern is Nick I think my
biggest concern in most parts of my life is Nick
Krawl because the threads all of these questions can be
answered by him, yeah, or they could not be answered
by him because he needs to do something at this
trade deadline. There is no Stan Patten feel good about it.
They stand pat They're gonna win eighty three eighty four games.

(11:49):
I think that they need an outfielder and they don't
even have to go get you know, a Taoscar Hernandez
or somebody like that. They can go get an expiring
deal guy that doesn't cost that much in a trade.
They can go get another bullpen arm and really help
out this bullpen, and they can go get that starting pitcher.
I look at Adrian Houser from the Chicago White Sox
that I don't think he would break the bank in

(12:10):
order to acquire a guy like that. So there's definitely
guys out there. But this is not something he has done.
He has not done the acquire talent or acquire major
league talent trade. He has done the acquire future talent trade.
He has done the reset button trade. He has not
done the all right, we're here, let's take a step
forward and get here. Trade. So how does he go

(12:32):
about that? Is it gonna be the Wheeling and Dale
and Jim Bowden where it's like we gave up how much?
Or is it going to be the half measures and
things that we've seen here in the last decade or
so where it's like, well we need an outfielder, let's
go get Marlon Burt. No, we can't do that either.
So there's got to be a concerted effort from him

(12:55):
to supplement the things on this roster. Else we're not
talking about the wildcard. Yeah, I want to talk about
that when we come back into the next segment, because
you know, Steve talked about how almost exhausting it is
to be three games over five hundred at the break,
and I think there's understandable levels of frustration to that.
There's understandable levels of excitement to that. But if I

(13:16):
think back to the All Star break two years ago,
and I know we keep bringing up twenty twenty three,
you know why because it was probably the most fun
any of us have had in a Red season in
a long time. And they were ten games over five
hundred at the All Star at the deadline, and they
were in first place, and they were like it was
there for them to do it. And they got Sam Mall.

(13:37):
Saam Mall pitched pretty well, but the bugaboo for that
team was starting pitching, and the Reds relied on people
will get healthy. David Bell's doing a good job we'll fit,
we'll add a little bit to the bullpen, and we'll
be all right. And I think they gave up like
thirty runs over the next two games after the All
Star break, and it's like, oh yeah, we still don't
have any starting pitchers. We've been talking about the issue

(14:00):
shoes and the weaknesses of this team for a while.
A power bat, right, maybe a corner infielder, a third baseman,
starting pitching. Are they going to change at any point
to say, Okay, we're actually going to go for it,
like you said, Jeff, And I think there's been some indicators. Okay,
we're gonna move on from Jamer, We're gonna call up
Chase Burns. We paid Terry Francono a lot of money.

(14:23):
You've shown me Okay, there's something there, but are you
going to prove it at the trade deadline? Is really
gonna be the most interesting part. Let's table that and
get to it after the break, because we have a
lot to get to as we recap the first half
quote unquote half of the season. Reds fifty and forty seven,
coming off of a series victory over the Colorado Rockies

(14:45):
that they just barely squeaked out over the Colorado Rockies.
But they did it nonetheless, and the All Star Break
is here with Steve Offfenbaker and Jeff Carr from the
Lockdown Reds podcast for the whole first hour you are
listening two cent. My name is Austin Elmore. Our one
brought to you by Skyline Chile on the home of
the Bengals, Cincinnati's ESPN fifteen thirty.

Speaker 5 (15:08):
Now your chance to win one thousand dollars entered this
nationwide keyword on our website, money.

Speaker 2 (15:14):
Swinging a broken background for a second, bubbled.

Speaker 4 (15:16):
By our sand Here come to Penson with the winning run.

Speaker 2 (15:21):
The Reds rally and get off the mat and.

Speaker 4 (15:24):
Score two in the ninth to beat the Rockies.

Speaker 2 (15:27):
Four to three. Tommy Thraw on the calls, the Reds
walked it off on Saturday against the Rockies. They were
able to win again yesterday, take two out of three.
They went five and five in that ten game stretch
prior to the break that we had been talking about
for so long. I think most people would consider that
a disappointment. But they're three games over five hundred going

(15:48):
into the All Star Break. Welcome back in Sincy. Three
to sixty. I'm Austin Elmore, Tony Pike out this week,
and I'm joined in studio in hour number one by
Jeff Carr and Steve offenbake Or from The Reds. They
locked on Reds Podcast, available wherever you get your podcasts,
including the iHeartRadio app. And we're kind of doing the
autopsy on the first half of the red season and

(16:12):
looking ahead to maybe the deficiencies of this team and
where they can get better and the idea of Nick
Krawl being aggressive and the organization showing Okay, we're really
serious about winning. What do they need to do or
what would Krawl have to do to make you feel like, Okay,

(16:34):
we're actually trying. Because I've talked in the past, like
you know, the Dick Williams moves didn't always work out,
but I had no problem because that dude was swinging.
And I want to see you and feel like my
team is trying to win. I haven't really felt that
with Nick Krawl. I've been extremely critical of Nick Krawl.
What does it take or what do you need to

(16:55):
see to feel like, Okay, the Reds are trying.

Speaker 3 (16:59):
I need to see more one move now And that's
been a problem in the past right, they've done a thing,
but does not all of the things, and the team
still continues to struggle. This team has three big needs
right now. The one we've been talking about for three
years now, which is a power hitting, right handed outfielder
that doesn't even have to be an everyday guy at
this point. It could be a platoon guy that you
come up with Benson or Freeley and you meet that

(17:21):
need that way. The other piece of it is they're
going to have to bolster this bullpen in some way,
shape or form. There's been some great bullpen work and
there's been some not so great bullpen work. Jeff and
I kind of have that group out there divided into bullpen,
A bullpen B and they need truly another a type
arm at the back end of this bullpen to help
take the pressure off of Pegan.

Speaker 4 (17:40):
Is he going to hold up all season? And we
don't know.

Speaker 3 (17:42):
This is the most save opportunities he's had pretty much ever,
so he could wear down. And then you run into
the question that I mentioned earlier, which is starting pitcher.
Do you go get a starting pitcher, do you not
go get a starting pitcher, or do you use a
starting pitcher that you have now to go out and
address these other needs, because that could also be something
they may have to do, depending on what ownership allows

(18:05):
Nick Crawl to do financially, he may have to cut
money to add money. And there's a real easy target
in the rotation right now.

Speaker 2 (18:11):
Yeah, right, and then you would definitely have to add
to the rotation if you if you were to trade
Nick Martinez and save that money. I think that the focus,
at least if they're gonna take a big swing, which
I emphasize I don't believe they have to. They just
need to take a couple of swings, like they've been
looking at strike three for a couple of years now,
or in shopping pilots, they went to Kroger to get

(18:32):
some milk and eggs and came home with mesquite flavored
barbecue chips and forgot the milk and the eggs. So
I really think like they've got to attack this deadline
with what they would at need. I never would have
guessed mesquite flavored barbecue chips would have been mentioned at all.

Speaker 4 (18:49):
He's undefeated with this, Austin. I'm telling you what, that.

Speaker 2 (18:52):
Is honestly perfect. Like they've there's been so much mesquite
flavored barbecue chips. On this team, there's been a lot
where it's just like that sounds really awesome, and then
you realize they taste the same as regular barbecue chips. Anyway,
where they should take their big swing, it should be
in the bullpen, because it feels like Emilio Began is
getting stretched to the point that he's never been. Tony

(19:14):
Santion for sure, Scott Barlow might get one hundred and
sixty appearances, dude, and I feel like at some point
those guys' arms are going to fall off. And then
when you really want to talk about the group A
vers Group B, I'm starting to wonder if there are
more than two pitchers in Group A, and then you
could start to have the argument that Tony Santeon might
be trending to a group B. Now, so you're only

(19:34):
talking about Emilio Pagan as your one guy that you
know you can trust every single time out. That's going
to wear him down too, So go get another guy.
There even might be a chance that they call up
the Baltimore Orioles and get two birds with one stone,
because they've got a couple of outfielders that are on
expiring deals, and they've got some bullpen guys that they

(19:56):
could reset their farm system with, ala Felix Batista, who
has looked a lot better recently. So the Reds could
really make a good deal with Baltimore if that is
on the table. But I think that Steve's right, like
multiple deals need to happen. One deal is going to
make a spiel like three games over five hundred. Yeah, yeah, no,

(20:17):
you're exactly right. You mentioned the idea of potentially trading
Nick Martinez. Is there anyone on the roster that you
feel like? I mean Martinez obviously because of financially where
he's at and the amount of money that he's costing
the team. Is there anyone else on the big league
roster that you think could be traded? Well, I know

(20:38):
that there's been a lot of talk recently about the
whole Rays model. Like the Reds want to operate like
the Rays. They want to operate like the Guardians and
things like that. Could they operate like the Brewers? That
would be cool, You're right, operate like the Bruis. We're
talking about teams. I would do anything to be the Brewers. Yeah.
The Brewers are amazing. They get rid of everybody and
they're still good. Yeah, that would mean Tony that Tyler

(21:01):
Stevenson and Gavin Lux are tradeable, which I don't think
anybody would sign up for it, And I don't know
what the return would be because you're talking about two
guys that do have another year of team control. But
the Ray's model is if they don't have that guy
signed before his one plus year, and that's where both
these guys are, then they are looking to trade them

(21:23):
and see what they can get. Now, the Rays also
trade those guys for prospects in a lot of different cases,
or guys who are right close to the major leagues.
That's not what this team needs right now, and so
if they go make that kind of a trade, that's
going to signal something completely different that I think the
fan base will revolt against. Sure, but if the Reds
front office wants to be like those teams, then those

(21:45):
guys are available.

Speaker 3 (21:46):
You know, there's no city in the country that loves
their players more than Cincinnati loves their players. They don't
have to be good all the time, they just have
to be beloved hard, play hard, and it gets them
a job here. You're correct, and by no means I'm
by advocating trading Tyler Stevenson, but if you are making
a trade to address a need on your team, you're
going to deal from your surplus. You're going to deal

(22:08):
from your strength. And right now this team has the
luxury of two hitting catchers, one of them better defensively
than the other, and one of those catchers nearing the
end of the window. Tyler Stevenson's has been approached about
an extension last offseason. Wasn't really interested in the conversation.
The numbers weren't close, That's what we heard. They were
far apart, so that hasn't been revisited. You're in a

(22:31):
trade deadline, you have an opportunity to make the postseason.
You have to deal from strength. It makes sense now.
I would much rather see them put together a package
of prospects, not touch the major league team, add to
it versus takeaway from it. But you know, the question
you threw at us was who from the major league
team that's somebody you could deal from the major league.

Speaker 2 (22:47):
I didn't expect that answer, but that is really interesting,
And you know, I think the idea of let's just
say that that were to happen, I think Stevenson's a
pretty well liked guy, not just by the fan base
but on the team. And Travino is well, I think
he's one of the rare guys on the team that
actually provides some veteran leadership, that actually has some experience
to help these young dudes. And he's also not an

(23:09):
everyday catcher. I don't think anyone thinks he is going
to hit three hundred on the season. Eventually, he will
come back down to earth at least a little bit.
So that's fascinating. But you brought up prospects. I'm always
in favor of trading might bees for certainties. Doesn't always
work that way. A lot of the trend in baseball,
I guess the last couple of years has been teams
want major league talent at least more frequently as of late.

(23:33):
Is there anybody in the system, Steve that you think
untouchable at the trade deadline?

Speaker 3 (23:38):
Well, we've been talking about this, you know, I know
he's currently on the major league roster right now, but
I don't trade Chase Burns, I don't trade Ret Louder.
We've had some conversations about is south Stewart on that
list of do not trades probably, so anybody else if
you put the right package together, you can trade him.

Speaker 4 (23:55):
Those are the three names that come to mind for me.
I would trade anybody else in the system.

Speaker 2 (24:00):
Yeah, I kinda. I don't know, Like I feel like
south Stewart is the only guy in the minor leagues
right now that I would say is close, but I
would not call him untouchable. Reet Louder is tough because
he's hurt right now, so I almost wouldn't mind hearing
his name in a trade. But that is my immediate
fan brain and knowing that in the future he's probably

(24:21):
a top end of the rotation type of guy that
would be a tough one like that would need to
be a huge deal. That's the big kind of swing
that I think the Reds don't need to take. And
at the same time, Chase Burns, I think Chase Burns
is the only guy that you would say is untouchable.
There are so many metrics, and I get a lot
of people have seen three starts and they think they
know who he is. But there are so many metrics

(24:41):
like the stuff plus type of metrics that are saying
he is really good, and there are a lot of
baseball riders that cover the entire league, not just the Reds,
that are saying this dude could be a top end
of the rotation type of guy very very soon. So
I think that would be really tough to get rid
of them. I think he's the only guy I would
say's untouchable. Speaking of Chase Burns, what's your takeaway from

(25:04):
his short big league experience.

Speaker 4 (25:06):
He's performed well. I think he's here a little early.

Speaker 3 (25:09):
I think we're seeing that it was more of a
move of necessity versus congratulations, You've earned your promotion, same
like Rhet Louder last year. But he's making the most
of this opportunity. I like how he came back from
basically just having his face beat in in his second start,
and he's working his way back. His stuff looks great.
You know, his numbers project well. Is he gonna last

(25:32):
the whole season in the big league rotation?

Speaker 4 (25:34):
I doubt it.

Speaker 3 (25:35):
A lot of that depends on Hunter Green, who we
talked about earlier. But whether he goes back to the
minors or not, he will not be available near the
end of this season or for a potential postseason. He
has a hard stop innings cap that the Reds are
going to honor. They are not going to risk his
long term viability for two extra starts this season.

Speaker 4 (25:53):
He'll get shut down.

Speaker 2 (25:54):
Do you think if Hunter comes back relatively soon, let's
say by the end of this month, and I think
that's push. But let's say he comes back by the
end of this month starts to look like himself. Is
there a path put Chase Burns in the bullpen and
maybe help them down the line if they're in a
playoff push and manage his innings that way. I like

(26:15):
the idea. I don't know if it helps him, And
I think this is the reason why I was so
six to one a half dozen the other one. Ever
he was called up like, I was excited to see
him in the major leagues, but I felt as though
the Reds were prioritizing their own roster over his individual development,
and that really hurt Jose Barrero. Like Jose Barrero, all

(26:35):
the scouts loved him, and honestly, anytime in TRIPLEA, everybody
was like, this dude's going on a rock. But I
felt like he got his confidence shattered very early on
whenever the Reds brought him up. During twenty twenty and
he just wasn't ready. And I worry about that a
little bit. With Chase Burns, and I get it, he's
another worldly talent, and I think that we will see
him continue to progress. His third start told me all

(26:58):
I need to know about Chase Burns for his very
first cup of coffee in the major leagues, and that
he was able to hang with Zach Wheeler following me
in a start in Boston where he absolutely looked like
he was overmatched, and he was able to pitch very
very well against a very good Phillies lineup. So I
think individually he's got the chops, but I don't want
them to mess around with it too much. I think

(27:19):
they got to prioritize the player over the team in
this case.

Speaker 3 (27:22):
And I would be a hard note on this because
remember when you could put a guy in the bullpen,
he gets up, he warms up, he doesn't get in
the game, he says down, he warms up again, he
throws pitches. If you're gonna use Chase Burns, you keep
him in the rotation, You let him do I move
Nick Martinez to the bullpen, assuming he's still on this team.
Let him help the team that way. And then when
you reach the innings cap on Chase Burns, Martinez slides
back into the rotation.

Speaker 2 (27:42):
Yeah. I think that does make a lot of sense.
And to your point, the Reds have talked a lot
about that regiment and like learning how to be a
big league pitcher and like what you go through during
the week and like setting him up to get his
routine down pat as a starting pitcher. That's interesting you
mentioned the word progression. I want to talk about progression

(28:02):
when we come back, because I think some guys have
progressed I think some guys maybe not so much through
the first quote unquote half of the season. Steve Offenbaker,
Jeff Carr, Locked On Red's Podcast with Us Hour one
of Sincy three to sixty, brought to you by Skyline
Chilly on ESPN fifteen thirty, Cincinnati Sports Station. Yea, nay, yeah,

(28:24):
that's right into page thirty since he three sixty ESPN
fifteen thirty. Austin Elmore solo today but not solo right now,
joined by Jeff Carr and Steve Offenbaker from the Locked
On Reds podcast for an hour of Red's Conversation. Cincinnati

(28:46):
fifty and forty seven at the All Star Break All
Star Game coming up on Tuesday. Home Run Derby tonight.
The home Run Derby is tonight and you can hear
it right here on ESPN fifteen thirty. You have not
lived until you've heard a radio broad cast of the
home Run Derby. It is I'm serious. It's incredibly entertaining
that in the three point competition at the NBA All

(29:08):
Star Game, it's actually electric on the radio. You guys
might not be thinking I'm serious right now, but I'm
dead serious. Listen to the home Run Derby on the radio.
You will enjoy it, and you can do it tonight
here on ESPN fifteen thirty. Cal Rawley's in the Home
Run Derby. He's made some progress this year. Some Reds

(29:30):
have made some progress this year, some maybe not so much.
Who do you feel like Steve starting with you has
taken the biggest step forward for the Reds this season?
And is it or could it be Elie de la
Cruz just being consistent?

Speaker 3 (29:45):
Well, that's the easy answer. Ellie is the easy answer.
Ell He's done a lot of things differently this year.
He's continuing to move towards that MVP type player and
that's the easy answer for me.

Speaker 4 (29:55):
It's Andrew Abbott. Though for me, that's the guy that.

Speaker 3 (29:58):
Has grown the most and had the most impact because
we didn't expect that he would be the ace of
this rotation. We didn't expect him to be an All
Star in in this year. But because of injury, because
of the way things have gone, because of the inconsistency
of Nicolodolo. You know, we talked about consistency earlier. Andrew
Abbott has had to emerge as the leader of this rotation,

(30:19):
the ace of this staff, and he has embraced it
and he's just run with it. And you know, if
you had told me he was gonna be an All
Star selection with a sub to era and just be
mister consistency for this team, you know, I might have
questioned your enthusiasm a little bit. But he's done all
those things and so for me, he's been the biggest surprise.
He has made the most progress year over year from
last year this year is the guy.

Speaker 2 (30:40):
While it may seem easy, I think that there's one
number about Elia de la Cruz that is the most surprising.
I'm not talking about any on pace numbers. We know
the on pace numbers like he's on pace to do
really well and home runs and RBIs and all this
other stuff. The thing that just absolutely baffles me is
he was always going to be a guy that has
a high batting and I average on balls and play
because of his speed, He's able to beat out a

(31:02):
lot of other hits that other guys can't. He's able
to turn singles into doubles far easier than most. But
his batting average on balls and play is down by
like a considerable amount from last year, which usually follows
with him being less productive in every other category like
less batting average, less on base percentage. Babbit is the

(31:22):
kind of thing that you look at and you say,
this guy is getting lucky or unlucky according to last year.
He's getting him lucky with his babbit, but he's not.
His production has taken so much of a step forward
that he's a little bit more immune to batting average
on balls and play than I expected him to be.
His plate discipline has gotten so much better, But it's

(31:45):
just the quality of contact, and it's not necessarily even
the hard hit rate or the exit velocity. It's just
the fact that he is able to barrel the ball
and control where it goes so much better, and he
hits from the right side of the plate so much
better that I think he has taken a step forward
that is noticeable enough that it cannot go unlooked. How

(32:06):
do you assess Ellie's defense through the first half. It's
gotten better, but it's mis still frustrating.

Speaker 4 (32:12):
It's it's you know, it's inconsistent the theme.

Speaker 3 (32:15):
You know, you watch a player that can throw the
ball one hundred miles an hour across the infield, gun
guys down at the plate and then skips a throw
to first base on a play where it really didn't
need to happen. It wasn't rushed, it wasn't something spectacular,
It was a routine ground ball. So I need a
little bit more consistency from his defense. It is better
than last year, but still he's still takes place. He
still takes some plays off, I think, and that's the

(32:38):
next part of his defense heeds.

Speaker 2 (32:41):
How do you explain Matt McClain. I think it's a
little bit of sophomore slump, like what Spencer Steer went
through last year, and it's a little bit of what
Tyler Stevenson dealt with his return from the collarbone injury.
We talked a lot about that year. It was like, man,
what is going on with Tyler Stevenson, But he had
that crazy injury to an area that is very key
to your swing. And same with with you know, not

(33:04):
collarbone obviously, but the labrum with Matt McClain, like he
probably had to relearn his swing a little bit from
the muscle, you know, muscle memory side of things. There's
a lot of ingrained sort of routine that goes into
a swing when it comes to a major league ballplayer.
There's a reason that we know Ken Griffey junior swing.

(33:25):
But you took a key part of that out for
Matt McClain and said, all right, now relearn this with
that muscle now being completely repaired. And I think that
it's taken him some time, and I think we're starting
to see it here, especially these last two weeks. It
seems like he's hit the ball really well. He's found grass.
That's something that we talked about a lot early, is
that he was hitting the ball hard, he was just

(33:45):
finding gloves. And that's why it was so hard to
stand on a table and say you have to send
him down because he has to work on something. Never
said he had to work on something. I just wanted
to see the ball hit the grass, you know, like
a golfer sees the ball go into the hall. That's
what we need to see from him. And we're seeing
his stats tick up according.

Speaker 3 (34:04):
And the Reds ask him to do all this at
the major league level after having not played for a year.
So you're coming off an injury, your shoulder's not quite right.
We want you to fix it. We want you to
do it against major league pitching, and we want you to.

Speaker 4 (34:15):
Do it right now. So it was a pretty big ask.

Speaker 3 (34:17):
So I agree with Jeff that things are starting to
trend in the right direction with him.

Speaker 4 (34:22):
Same like with Spencer Steer.

Speaker 3 (34:23):
Spencer Steer started the year hurt and there was stuff
going on with the shoulder, and we've now finally seen
him turn a corner. And I think we're seeing Matt
McCain turn the same corner and getting back into routines.
And I think the second half for both of those
players is going to be a lot better than the
first half was.

Speaker 2 (34:36):
I am a big, big Spencer Steer believer. I don't
really know, Yeah, I don't know. I know it doesn't
maybe make the most sense, but for whatever reason, I
just think that's a dude that's going to be a
successful big leaguer. I want to backtrack to Ellie real quick,
because I wrote down stealing bases. It's not happening as
much for the entire team and Ellie a little bit

(34:59):
more over the last week or so. Do you think
that's something that the Reds could tweak or should tweak.
They could be.

Speaker 4 (35:06):
More aggressive, Yeah, they could remember that.

Speaker 3 (35:08):
Also, Ellie had some nagging leg stuff going on and
that slowed him down a bit. He was, you know,
taking care of him, keeping himself in the lineup. But also,
you know, Terry Francona told us this from the beginning
that they were going to run, but they were going
to be smarter about when they ran and how they ran. Now,
maybe they over corrected a little bit early on, and
I see that there's scenarios just recently where they could

(35:30):
have sent Ellie and avoided a double play, but they
didn't and it cost them ultimately. I think those are
the tweaks that are going to start happening where Francona
loosens the leash a little bit and lets these guys
go it's gonna tick up in the second half.

Speaker 4 (35:42):
But I don't think by a lot.

Speaker 3 (35:44):
I think this is kind of who they are now,
not as aggressive running the bases, because there were a
lot of times under David Bell they ran themselves right
out of inning.

Speaker 2 (35:51):
True, very true, right, And I think the aggressiveness is
a team wide thing, not even just an elly thing.
I was looking at this the other day. They have
less steal attempts. They have less advanced attempts at least
according to Baseball Savan than they did last season. They're
on pace to have a lot less in that, but
there's still a top ten team when it comes to
the value they provide with their base running. So I

(36:12):
think they're right, they're going to tick up the aggressiveness.
Barry Larkin also made a point on the television broadcast,
it's like a bout a week ago that the thing
with Ellie's steels is he's hitting the ball so much better,
and there's a lot of times where he's finding himself
on second base because he's lugging almost five hundred going
into the All Star Break. That there's part of it.
It's like it would be awesome if he stole third,

(36:35):
But I think he's doing a lot more with the
bat than he has in years past that he doesn't
need to compensate for with his legs, and because of
that we've seen less steals. I still think he finishes
the year around fifty, maybe even sixty. But yeah, I
think it's interesting to note the less steals. But man,
I think that everything else for him has ticked up
in a way that it doesn't bother me. You said

(36:58):
Andrew Abbot, You said de la Cruz. When it comes
to progression, who's another name you feel like could take
a significant step forward in the second half if this
team gets to where they want to go, which is
back to the playoffs. That's a tough one because I
feel like there are a few and it kind of
depends on a couple of different things. I think that

(37:19):
the first guy that comes to mind for me is
Tyler Stevenson and the injury. You wanted to trade him
five minutes ago. Well, I don't want to just I
just don't want to get it just.

Speaker 3 (37:30):
Right.

Speaker 2 (37:31):
Jeff hates how many players that I've hated over the years,
according to some others anyway, But no, I think it's
Tyler Stevenson because we haven't seen his best stuff yet.
And I think that from the plate, he continues to
hit the ball hard, he's just getting unlucky. He's the
guy that bab It does matter quite a bit. Four.

(37:51):
We talked a lot about batting Averagon balls and play
with Ellie. It matters for Tyler Stevenson. And as much
as his athletics slide for a double the other day,
really that at some point he can run the bases
really well. He's not known for that, and I think
that it's all about the bat to ball thing with him,
and he's hit the ball really well, he's just not
seeing the results. I think we'll see the results the
second half.

Speaker 3 (38:12):
And for me, I think we need to see some
more progression from Noelvie Marte.

Speaker 4 (38:15):
He's going to get more playing time at third.

Speaker 3 (38:18):
We're looking at him still being pulled as a defensive
replacement laden games. I would like to see that stop.
I would like to see Noelvie progress to a point
where Tito just can't take him out. He needs to play,
He needs to play. So for me, that's the next
guy that you would hope could continue to develop and
turn a corner.

Speaker 4 (38:33):
Here in the second half.

Speaker 3 (38:35):
You know, we talk about this jokingly all the time
about you know, addition through health, addition through promotion from within,
Like they need this guy to go, and if he goes,
then so does the Reds offense a little bit.

Speaker 4 (38:46):
We've seen it the last several days from him.

Speaker 3 (38:47):
When he has a good game, the Reds find themselves
in a position to win because the lineup needs just
that one more guy that can go.

Speaker 4 (38:54):
So Novi Martes, my guy, I.

Speaker 2 (38:55):
Think I agree with that a lot. And I you know,
Noelvi twenty three years old. The kid needs to play,
and he's gonna screw up, but he needs to play
a little bit, kind of like Ellie did when he
was going through some of his defensive issues and stuff
like that. This has flown by. We have one segment left.
I want to ask you guys a little bit about
the major league draft that is happening right now and

(39:16):
has happened for the last couple of days, the minor
league system. We saw that salth Stewart got promoted to
Triple A Louisville. We'll talk about that and more. This
is since E three to sixty on ESPN fifteen thirty
thirty since E three to sixty hour one, getting ready
to close up shop on a Monday ESPN fifteen thirty

(39:39):
on Austin elmore tea pipe back next week he is
on load management season, So it's just me this week
right now though, joined by Steve Offenbaker Jeff Carr of
the Locked On Reds podcast. As we continue to talk
about the Reds at the All Star break, let's dip
down into the minor leagues for just a minute. We
talked about the quote unquote untouchables in a potential trade scenario. Steve,

(40:02):
for you, who are some names that we need to
keep an eye on Our Reds fans should keep an
eye on in the minor league system as their season
wraps up? I guess about a month and a half
left in their season.

Speaker 3 (40:13):
Well right now, for me, the number one guy is
a guy we mentioned a little earlier, and that's South Stewart.
We just saw him in the Futures game, you know,
Oh for one put the bomb play as Jeff looked
up for us there during the break. And for me,
that's probably the closest guy, the guy you should be
paying attention to now.

Speaker 4 (40:27):
In a pinch, might see him this year.

Speaker 3 (40:29):
Interesting, it'd be better I think if it was next
year that we saw him, but it could happen this year.
You look at how he's doing. Pipeline has him as
the number three prospect in the system. Now he'll move
up those rankings because I know that Chase Burns, who's
already in the major leagues, are ahead of him, right,
so those ratings will adjust. But he's probably the guy
I'm keeping my eye on most you look at, you know,
even the other guy in the Futures Game. Do know
was in the Futures Game for the Reds, But nineteen

(40:51):
years old, can't buy a beer yet, He's a long
ways away. He's going to have to check back in
a few years down the road. You know, it's a
name we keep here come up. Obviously the Reds are
highlighting him by having him in the Futures Game, but
he's still a long ways away. So I think Stuart's
probably the most immediate possibility of a guy to keep
an eye on that could actually get here soon.

Speaker 2 (41:11):
There's two names that I think could be traded based
on guys that need to be protected from the Rule
five draft in this offseason, and the Reds might subvert
that by just trading him for a major leaguer now,
and that's Edwin Arroyo and Hector Rodriguez. Edwin Arroyo of
course big part of that Mariner's trade, and a lot
of folks, including myself at least at the time, wondered

(41:32):
if he would move Ellie off of shortstop. He hasn't
quite hit for power though, and he's still down in
the minor leagues kind of slugging under four hundred. You
wonder if that's ever going to come about. He is
hitting around two eighties. Another shoulder injury guy too, Yeah,
another shoulder injury guy as well. And then Hector Rodriguez
is the best outfield prospect. And it's really hard to

(41:53):
squint and see who the second best outfield prospect is
me in the Reds outfield or in the Reds organization.
So that that's gonna be the next guy that you
see come up and he could make a difference in
the outfield, or he could just be another Blake Dune
guy like that that he's a quadruple A guy. Just
because the Red system isn't that strong in the outfield,
why can't they draft and develop outfielders.

Speaker 4 (42:14):
The focus isn't there.

Speaker 3 (42:15):
I mean they could, that's not the decision they've made,
though they've made two decisions. It's hard to go out
inside free agent pitching. It's very, very expensive. Therefore they
need to grow their own so that's been focused priority
number one.

Speaker 4 (42:26):
Focus.

Speaker 3 (42:26):
Priority number two is get the athletes, which is the shortstops,
and we can move them around, we can find them
new homes, we can draft those guys because again expensive,
So they're drafting the best athletes on the field and
trying to move them to spots that they need.

Speaker 4 (42:40):
They're drafting the pitching. The hope is you can convert.

Speaker 3 (42:43):
Those those shortstops to outfielders, so they're not drafting outfielders.
But what that leads to then is you look around
the system and you're like, well, until we actually do
move these guys off of shortstop, there is an apparent
lack of outfield depth anywhere in the system where they're
really eyeing a couple shortstops, a couple infielders to eventually
move I think.

Speaker 2 (43:00):
When I believe that they have found the sweet spot
with pitching development, and there's a lot of folks around
the industry that look at the Reds and say they
are a good organization for developing pitching. Now, they just
quite haven't translated that to the position side of things.
And we had a great conversation with current Red scout
Tyler Gibbons, and he kind of talked about the Reds
philosophy when it comes to adding young players and drafting

(43:22):
young players and trading for minor leaguers. They look for
traits and then they can teach skill, is how they
approach this. There's other teams that look for skills as
well as traits, but the Reds put a lot more
weight on the traits and the athleticism of a player,
and they believe they can teach that skill as they
go through the minor league. So that's why you always
see other teams drafting players that they'll talk a lot

(43:43):
about the hit skill, and then when the Reds draft guys,
they talk a lot about the athleticism. That's just kind
of how the Reds have positioned themselves as an organization.
But I don't think they found that sweet spot teaching
the hit skill just yet. The MLB Draft is happening
as we speak. What do we know about the players
the Reds have selected so far, and most notably their

(44:04):
first round pick, a guy with a great name, Steel Hall,
a shortstop from Alabama. High school shortstop from Alabama.

Speaker 3 (44:12):
Well, right now, just going to give you the specifics
on these guys, because he's really been following this close.
I just want to start off the conversation though, by
saying that what we know is that we don't know.

Speaker 4 (44:21):
These guys are five years away.

Speaker 3 (44:23):
The Reds made a decision in this draft to go
young into to the high school class.

Speaker 4 (44:28):
You know, and not just the Reds.

Speaker 3 (44:30):
You know, eight of the first fifteen picks were high
school shortstops in this draft. So Major League Baseball as
a whole is looking at that crop of players. What
that means is there's a lot of unknowns. There's a
lot of time that's going to have to pass before
we see any of these guys be remotely close to
contributing at the big league level. Now that being said,
you look at these players. They did go get a

(44:50):
couple good ones.

Speaker 2 (44:51):
Yeah, steel Haul. The trait is his athleticism and his speed,
because scouts have raided his speed a seventy on the
twenty to eighty six and that is considering like Major
League players. That's not saying he's a seventy grade high
school speed. He's a seventy grade speed for players that
they look at in the Major League. So he is fast,
and he has a fast bat according to scouts, but

(45:14):
he's got some swinging miss potential. He's got to really
develop at the plate. It's following along kind of with
what I said where the Reds are really prioritizing athleticism
and they believe they can teach him to be a
decent hitter down the road. Some scouts believe that he's
got potential to hit fifteen to twenty home runs in
a season, but they think it's probably more likely he
will be a ten to fifteen homer guy. So we're

(45:36):
we're looking more at like on base speed threat middle
of the field. Some think he stays at shortstop, others
think he can move to center field, which either or
is really a good thing conversation. Yeah, it's a good
thing to have, But that's exactly where the Reds are
and they're betting on their development system on getting in there. Well,
this has been a blast, been a lot of fun.
I really appreciate you guys coming up here and making

(45:58):
some time for us. Steve, I know you're about to
fly back to the Big Island. God bless you, man.
I don't know how you do? How long? So what
do you fly to? Like California?

Speaker 3 (46:08):
And yeah, I fly from Big Island ConA to Seattle,
change planes and then get into Columbus.

Speaker 2 (46:12):
How long is it from Seattle to.

Speaker 3 (46:14):
Five hours each leg? So about a ten hour flight?
Oh my gosh, God love you man, I love them.
You want to talk about a Reds fan, a true commitment?
Where can people follow along to everything you guys have
and what do you have that you've been working on
at Lockdown Reds.

Speaker 2 (46:30):
You can follow the Lockdown Reds podcast everywhere you get
your podcasts, including the iHeartRadio app. Got a lot of
great draft stuff up there, and we're going to be
really honing in on the trade deadline coming up. You
can also watch us on YouTube and talk some Reds
baseball there, and you can follow us on social media.
You can follow Steve at s Offenbaker with two f's
on X and then you can follow me at Jeff

(46:52):
Carr with three f's on X and TikTok as well.
Having a lot of fun talking Reds on the TikTok
of you considered adding an F just to.

Speaker 4 (47:02):
No, you know, I didn't go to college in Alabama,
so I spell my name right.

Speaker 2 (47:07):
Some might wonder if that's third F as an initial
or maybe a statement to everybody else. Jeff car Steve Offenbaker,
Thank you guys so much. We'll take a break, we'll
come back. I'll talk a little bit more about the
Reds recap the weekend. We've got talkbacks, We've got a
Bengals conversation to have a lot still coming up in
the next two hours on SINCY three to sixty. Thank

(47:29):
you so much for listening. Hour two is next on
the Home of the Bengals, ESPN fifteen.

Speaker 5 (47:32):
Thirtyky Cincinnati, make us the number one pre set on
your car radio and on the free, new and improved
iHeartRadio app. Free never sounded so good, ESPN fifteen thirty

Speaker 2 (47:44):
Hey, do you run a small business, But