November 25, 2025 • 9 mins
ESPN College Football writer Bill Connelly joined us to discuss the future of college football, which is the topic of his book, Forward Progress: The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football. It's a great read, and Bill was fun to talk with.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
In other places a lot here we're just wondering if
they're going to sign kylesh War. We are at Oakley Greens.
It's thirteen away from four o'clock ESPN fifteen thirty. We'll
spend some time on the Bearcats, as you see, gets
set to go to Fort Worth on Saturday to try
to avoid a fourth consecutive loss. And many of us
(00:21):
are still salty about the game, about the way the
game on Saturday night play it out, and many looking
ahead to this weekend rivalry weekend in college football Ohio
State at Michigan. We have for years referenced the work
of Bill Connolly, who is a college football writer for ESPN.
We always use his SMP plus metrics sometimes in referencing
(00:43):
picks and betting and just you know, predictive metrics that
sort of stuff. And I have followed Bill's work for years.
He also has written a book, and it's a really,
really good read. It's one of the best sports books
I've read. Forward Progress, The Definitive Guide to the Future
of College Football. And if you're into college football, if
certainly you understand that the sport is night and day
(01:05):
from what it was. Heck, just six seven years ago,
and Bill does a really good deep dive into things
that may happen, things that will happen, and in some cases,
things that should happen moving forward, as they may shape
college football into the next decade. Bill is kind enough
to give us a few minutes this afternoon. It's good
to have you, Bill. How are you very good? How
(01:27):
about you? I'm well. You took on a little bit
of a task here that I think is interesting writing
about the future of this sport. Let me ask you
this because I hear all the time, whether it's nil,
the portal, the expansion of the playoff conference, real alignment,
private equity buying into college football conferences. I hear people say, well,
college football has been ruined. And my take as always, well,
(01:49):
Saturdays feel the same. Saturdays are awesome Saturday and ann
Arbor is going to be incredible. Saturdays at Nippert's Stadium
are awesome, maybe not as awesome as they were four
years ago. The stadiums are fold the TV ratings are great.
What do you think what comes to mind when someone
says college football has been ruined?
Speaker 2 (02:06):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (02:06):
That that was a joke I had In one of
the chapters of the book, just talking about we any
stage we don't like, we declare it is going to
kill college football, and it never does, and college football
continues to roll on and become at least as popular
or more popular. So I do think one of the
one of the things I really wanted to explore in
there was was look at warning signs, like, you know,
(02:27):
things are you can't find any discernible hints that this
is about to destroy the sport. Well, what has destroyed
other sports made? What caused NASCAR to you know a
little bit of a downfall, Why did baseball become less popular?
And just kind of look at some of the sports
boxing that were really, really really big and are still
plenty popular now but aren't as popular they don't have
(02:48):
as much money going in, so, you know, just try
to look at the warning signs there and create a
checklists of sorts of things we should probably avoid.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
One thing. And you've made the case for for a
while for college football to have a commissioner. You've lobbied
for it in colins, you've written in the past, and
this is one of the things you touch on in
the books. Maybe not a commissioner, but is it realistic
to expect that there's an actual human being who's kind
of put in charge of the sport and tasked with
making decisions in college football's best interests, and not just
(03:20):
one or two conferences or one or two television networks.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Yeah. I mean, we've seen plenty of sports that have
a commissioner in place, and that commissioner don't do a
very good job, and things get a lot worse. But
it feels like the only thing worse than that is
just not having one, because then, by default, the senior power,
most powerful conference commissioner ends up being basically in charge
of the sport. Except they're in charge, they're always going
(03:44):
to make decisions based on self interest and it just
becomes a race, you know, a money race like everything
else does, and that cannot help everybody else. It's the
big ten s here just trying to vacuum up whatever
they possibly can uh and and and try to separate
themselves from the rest of the sport. That's not good.
That's not why I don't watch the sport for financial leverage.
(04:06):
I watch it for as many teams as possible being
capable of really big things. And it feels like we're
trying to gate things off a little bit more than usual.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
So as a University of Cincinnati fan, right, we all
celebrate that they move into the Big Twelve, and you
know that on the field there's gonna be some growing pains,
and god knows there have been, but it it it
doesn't feel that different from when they were in the
American Athletic Conference in terms of how the conferences looked
at from you know, folks who love the Big Ten
(04:36):
or love schools in the Big Ten or the SEC,
and I don't see that changing, is it?
Speaker 3 (04:44):
You mean, the way Big ten fans look at the
Big twelve, just the.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Perception of the the perception of the league doesn't seem
like it is what we thought it was going to
be when you see at tainmed membership.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Right, Yeah, No, I mean that was certainly there are
certain there's a certain number of brands in the sport,
and the Big Ten and SEC obviously have most of
them that are are guaranteed to occupy TV ratings and everything,
and everybody else is kind of left to finn for themselves.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
And the people who want the Big tenor or are
based in the Big Ten, yeah, they're never going to
even if you know, the Big twelve, every single one
of those programs became as good as they were supposed
to be. A Big ten wouldn't wouldn't pretend that wasn't
the case, I guess, But I mean, all the Big
twelve can do is try to put an awesome product
on the field. Texas Tech is it looks good enough
(05:32):
that you know, not only are they likely to make
the playoff here, they're going to be capable of winning
a couple of games with that defensive front and the
way they're just explosive potential. In general, the Big twelve
makes the most of its opportunities. Then eventually, you know,
you'll basically whatever they want to or don't want to admit,
they're going to have to accept that the Big twelve
(05:53):
can play a role in national college football. So that's
all you can really do. And I do think there
are certain a good number of programs that are look
in pretty good in the short and long terms, and
obviously pure money has a lot to do with that.
But that's all the Big twelves can do is just
put a really good product on the field, and I
think it's kind of doing it this year.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Bill Connolly is with us his book Forward progress The
definitive Guide to the future of college football. Could college
football's future ever include a scenario where we're all okay
with the process that is used to determine which teams
play for a championship?
Speaker 3 (06:28):
Absolutely not. That's I'm very definitive on that one. We're
always going to look for a reason to complain.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
But I do.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Think, I mean, you know, anytime I get a chance
to advocate for a return of a formula of sorts,
I do you know that it's something I like to
push for, because, as I always say, people didn't hate
the BCF formula. They hated that the BCS could only
choose two teams and that bar was just too high.
And so the fact that most of the oxygen in
recent weeks has been taken up by arguing about Notre
(06:57):
Dame in Miami, you know, Miami, who lost a lot
two games in a bad acc and that's the most
outrage we can get. I figure that's that's a massive
improvement right there. So it is proof that we're always
going to figure out something to yell about. And I'm
guilty of that too, But now we're gonna it doesn't
there's no magic formatter even with a formula, we'd still get.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
Mad when when you have been on the losing side
of a rivalry game like Ohio State has been with Michigan.
Right you, on one hand, you could look at your
S and P plus projection which you have at ESPN
dot com that has Ohio State winning by more than
two touchdowns. Yet there's the emotional part of it right
where it's Ryan Day against Michigan, it's the Wolverines, it's
(07:37):
recent history. So what should Buckeyes fans do with that
fourteen and a half point projection you have for that
game on Saturday.
Speaker 3 (07:45):
Well, I just finished my preview for the week it'll
go up tomorrow, and I kind of as I was
writing it, I cracked myself up because I realized we
have a new thing with both Ohio State and Michigan
and A and m Texas. There's now the role of
unbeaten spoiler, where like Oha said, obviously he wants to
end the streak and beat up Michigan because it's just
(08:05):
always you always have to beat Michigan. But now they
can actually play. They're so good that they can play
spoiler on Michigan and make sure that there's no chance
of them making the playoff too, So that's kind of funny.
Usually it's the other way around. It's the lesser team
trying to run the good team's title hopes. Now it's
a reverse. And so in a way, if Ohio State
wins this year, which I bet they do, but I'm
(08:28):
not bet much, it really would kind of it'd be
like a double win. You'd finally get the monkey off
your back. And also you'd relegate, you know, Michigan to
the Capitol One Bowl or whatever.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
I've enjoyed your work for years, thoroughly enjoyed the book.
Awesome to have you on the show with us. Bill,
Thank you, absolutely take care. That's Bill Connolly ESPN. His
weekly projections and previews available at espn dot com, and
his book, which I thoroughly enjoyed. Read it late this summer.
Forward Progress, The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football.
(09:01):
That was a busy hour. We had a lot there.
I think we are clear till four thirty in terms
of guests. I have given you absolutely nothing to call
me about. But our lines aren't open for the next
thirty minutes or so. Five went, three, seven, four, nine,
fifteen thirty. We have a Joe Burrow playing on Thursday.
I respect the hell out of Joe Burrow. Like to me,
there's there's room for multiple truths, there's room for multiple beliefs,
(09:26):
and I'll share with you a bunch of beliefs, and
some of them might be in conflict with each other.
We'll do that as it relates to Joe. We'll spend
a little bit more time on the Bearcats coming up
here in just a bit. Amy Wagner in the next
hour on sports and money, and Dan Klaskins will help
you with fantasy football this weekend as well. We are
at Oakley Greens. We're here till six o'clock tonight, hanging
(09:47):
out on ESPN fifteen thirty, Cincinnati Sports Station.
In other places a lot here we're just wondering if
they're going to sign kylesh War. We are at Oakley Greens.
It's thirteen away from four o'clock ESPN fifteen thirty. We'll
spend some time on the Bearcats, as you see, gets
set to go to Fort Worth on Saturday to try
to avoid a fourth consecutive loss. And many of us
(00:21):
are still salty about the game, about the way the
game on Saturday night play it out, and many looking
ahead to this weekend rivalry weekend in college football Ohio
State at Michigan. We have for years referenced the work
of Bill Connolly, who is a college football writer for ESPN.
We always use his SMP plus metrics sometimes in referencing
(00:43):
picks and betting and just you know, predictive metrics that
sort of stuff. And I have followed Bill's work for years.
He also has written a book, and it's a really,
really good read. It's one of the best sports books
I've read. Forward Progress, The Definitive Guide to the Future
of College Football. And if you're into college football, if
certainly you understand that the sport is night and day
(01:05):
from what it was. Heck, just six seven years ago,
and Bill does a really good deep dive into things
that may happen, things that will happen, and in some cases,
things that should happen moving forward, as they may shape
college football into the next decade. Bill is kind enough
to give us a few minutes this afternoon. It's good
to have you, Bill. How are you very good? How
(01:27):
about you? I'm well. You took on a little bit
of a task here that I think is interesting writing
about the future of this sport. Let me ask you
this because I hear all the time, whether it's nil,
the portal, the expansion of the playoff conference, real alignment,
private equity buying into college football conferences. I hear people say, well,
college football has been ruined. And my take as always, well,
(01:49):
Saturdays feel the same. Saturdays are awesome Saturday and ann
Arbor is going to be incredible. Saturdays at Nippert's Stadium
are awesome, maybe not as awesome as they were four
years ago. The stadiums are fold the TV ratings are great.
What do you think what comes to mind when someone
says college football has been ruined?
Speaker 2 (02:06):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (02:06):
That that was a joke I had In one of
the chapters of the book, just talking about we any
stage we don't like, we declare it is going to
kill college football, and it never does, and college football
continues to roll on and become at least as popular
or more popular. So I do think one of the
one of the things I really wanted to explore in
there was was look at warning signs, like, you know,
(02:27):
things are you can't find any discernible hints that this
is about to destroy the sport. Well, what has destroyed
other sports made? What caused NASCAR to you know a
little bit of a downfall, Why did baseball become less popular?
And just kind of look at some of the sports
boxing that were really, really really big and are still
plenty popular now but aren't as popular they don't have
(02:48):
as much money going in, so, you know, just try
to look at the warning signs there and create a
checklists of sorts of things we should probably avoid.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
One thing. And you've made the case for for a
while for college football to have a commissioner. You've lobbied
for it in colins, you've written in the past, and
this is one of the things you touch on in
the books. Maybe not a commissioner, but is it realistic
to expect that there's an actual human being who's kind
of put in charge of the sport and tasked with
making decisions in college football's best interests, and not just
(03:20):
one or two conferences or one or two television networks.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Yeah. I mean, we've seen plenty of sports that have
a commissioner in place, and that commissioner don't do a
very good job, and things get a lot worse. But
it feels like the only thing worse than that is
just not having one, because then, by default, the senior power,
most powerful conference commissioner ends up being basically in charge
of the sport. Except they're in charge, they're always going
(03:44):
to make decisions based on self interest and it just
becomes a race, you know, a money race like everything
else does, and that cannot help everybody else. It's the
big ten s here just trying to vacuum up whatever
they possibly can uh and and and try to separate
themselves from the rest of the sport. That's not good.
That's not why I don't watch the sport for financial leverage.
(04:06):
I watch it for as many teams as possible being
capable of really big things. And it feels like we're
trying to gate things off a little bit more than usual.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
So as a University of Cincinnati fan, right, we all
celebrate that they move into the Big Twelve, and you
know that on the field there's gonna be some growing pains,
and god knows there have been, but it it it
doesn't feel that different from when they were in the
American Athletic Conference in terms of how the conferences looked
at from you know, folks who love the Big Ten
(04:36):
or love schools in the Big Ten or the SEC,
and I don't see that changing, is it?
Speaker 3 (04:44):
You mean, the way Big ten fans look at the
Big twelve, just the.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Perception of the the perception of the league doesn't seem
like it is what we thought it was going to
be when you see at tainmed membership.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Right, Yeah, No, I mean that was certainly there are
certain there's a certain number of brands in the sport,
and the Big Ten and SEC obviously have most of
them that are are guaranteed to occupy TV ratings and everything,
and everybody else is kind of left to finn for themselves.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
And the people who want the Big tenor or are
based in the Big Ten, yeah, they're never going to
even if you know, the Big twelve, every single one
of those programs became as good as they were supposed
to be. A Big ten wouldn't wouldn't pretend that wasn't
the case, I guess, But I mean, all the Big
twelve can do is try to put an awesome product
on the field. Texas Tech is it looks good enough
(05:32):
that you know, not only are they likely to make
the playoff here, they're going to be capable of winning
a couple of games with that defensive front and the
way they're just explosive potential. In general, the Big twelve
makes the most of its opportunities. Then eventually, you know,
you'll basically whatever they want to or don't want to admit,
they're going to have to accept that the Big twelve
(05:53):
can play a role in national college football. So that's
all you can really do. And I do think there
are certain a good number of programs that are look
in pretty good in the short and long terms, and
obviously pure money has a lot to do with that.
But that's all the Big twelves can do is just
put a really good product on the field, and I
think it's kind of doing it this year.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Bill Connolly is with us his book Forward progress The
definitive Guide to the future of college football. Could college
football's future ever include a scenario where we're all okay
with the process that is used to determine which teams
play for a championship?
Speaker 3 (06:28):
Absolutely not. That's I'm very definitive on that one. We're
always going to look for a reason to complain.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
But I do.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Think, I mean, you know, anytime I get a chance
to advocate for a return of a formula of sorts,
I do you know that it's something I like to
push for, because, as I always say, people didn't hate
the BCF formula. They hated that the BCS could only
choose two teams and that bar was just too high.
And so the fact that most of the oxygen in
recent weeks has been taken up by arguing about Notre
(06:57):
Dame in Miami, you know, Miami, who lost a lot
two games in a bad acc and that's the most
outrage we can get. I figure that's that's a massive
improvement right there. So it is proof that we're always
going to figure out something to yell about. And I'm
guilty of that too, But now we're gonna it doesn't
there's no magic formatter even with a formula, we'd still get.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
Mad when when you have been on the losing side
of a rivalry game like Ohio State has been with Michigan.
Right you, on one hand, you could look at your
S and P plus projection which you have at ESPN
dot com that has Ohio State winning by more than
two touchdowns. Yet there's the emotional part of it right
where it's Ryan Day against Michigan, it's the Wolverines, it's
(07:37):
recent history. So what should Buckeyes fans do with that
fourteen and a half point projection you have for that
game on Saturday.
Speaker 3 (07:45):
Well, I just finished my preview for the week it'll
go up tomorrow, and I kind of as I was
writing it, I cracked myself up because I realized we
have a new thing with both Ohio State and Michigan
and A and m Texas. There's now the role of
unbeaten spoiler, where like Oha said, obviously he wants to
end the streak and beat up Michigan because it's just
(08:05):
always you always have to beat Michigan. But now they
can actually play. They're so good that they can play
spoiler on Michigan and make sure that there's no chance
of them making the playoff too, So that's kind of funny.
Usually it's the other way around. It's the lesser team
trying to run the good team's title hopes. Now it's
a reverse. And so in a way, if Ohio State
wins this year, which I bet they do, but I'm
(08:28):
not bet much, it really would kind of it'd be
like a double win. You'd finally get the monkey off
your back. And also you'd relegate, you know, Michigan to
the Capitol One Bowl or whatever.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
I've enjoyed your work for years, thoroughly enjoyed the book.
Awesome to have you on the show with us. Bill,
Thank you, absolutely take care. That's Bill Connolly ESPN. His
weekly projections and previews available at espn dot com, and
his book, which I thoroughly enjoyed. Read it late this summer.
Forward Progress, The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football.
(09:01):
That was a busy hour. We had a lot there.
I think we are clear till four thirty in terms
of guests. I have given you absolutely nothing to call
me about. But our lines aren't open for the next
thirty minutes or so. Five went, three, seven, four, nine,
fifteen thirty. We have a Joe Burrow playing on Thursday.
I respect the hell out of Joe Burrow. Like to me,
there's there's room for multiple truths, there's room for multiple beliefs,
(09:26):
and I'll share with you a bunch of beliefs, and
some of them might be in conflict with each other.
We'll do that as it relates to Joe. We'll spend
a little bit more time on the Bearcats coming up
here in just a bit. Amy Wagner in the next
hour on sports and money, and Dan Klaskins will help
you with fantasy football this weekend as well. We are
at Oakley Greens. We're here till six o'clock tonight, hanging
(09:47):
out on ESPN fifteen thirty, Cincinnati Sports Station.
Mo Egger News
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