December 13, 2024 • 8 mins
If you're a college basketball fan, you'll love the smart college basketball analysis at EvanMiya.com.
Evan Miyakawa runs the website. He's a collge hoops obsessive, and he joined me to talk UC vs. Xavier, Kentucky vs. Louisville, and Dayton vs. Marquette.
Podcasts of The Mo Egger Radio Show are a service of Longnecks Sports Grill.
Listen to the show live weekday afternoons 3:00 - 6:00 on ESPN1530.
Listen Live: ESPN1530.com/listen
Get more: https://linktr.ee/MoEgger
Follow on X: @MoEgger
Instagram too: @MoEgger
Evan Miyakawa runs the website. He's a collge hoops obsessive, and he joined me to talk UC vs. Xavier, Kentucky vs. Louisville, and Dayton vs. Marquette.
Podcasts of The Mo Egger Radio Show are a service of Longnecks Sports Grill.
Listen to the show live weekday afternoons 3:00 - 6:00 on ESPN1530.
Listen Live: ESPN1530.com/listen
Get more: https://linktr.ee/MoEgger
Follow on X: @MoEgger
Instagram too: @MoEgger
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
And among all the people that we've had on I
wanted an objective voice based on facts and analytics and
data to break down this game on Saturday. So Evan
kind enough to join us. His website is evanmia dot com. Evan,
how are you.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
I'm doing good.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
I'm doing good.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Are you as bullish on the Bearcats as you were
two and a half weeks ago?
Speaker 2 (00:20):
So justin smid less bullish, But I'm not at all
discouraged by the last two games that they've had. So
you know, last time that we talked, it was going
into their game on the road against Villanova, and you know,
they were probably four or five point favorite heading into
that game. But certainly that's a tough, a tough.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Game no matter what.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Villanova has looked a lot better in the last couple
of weeks. Somethink that loss doesn't look quite.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
As bad as it did initially.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
And so I only have since he down a couple
spots from when we last talked. So I think they
were a top ten team according to my predictive team.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Ratings a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
They're down to I think, yeah, thirteen, but that's still
top fifteen in the Country. I'm still very high on
them going into Big twelve play, certainly ahead of this
crossdown SHOOTOU against Xavier. I still think they're a comfortable favorite,
so I'm not selling any of mine Cincinnati stock. I'm
still really optimistic about them going forward.
Speaker 4 (01:13):
All right now.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
We also talked before Xavier went into I hate to
say Tailspin. They lost two games, but they they haven't
played great recently. They did House well. I think it's
a pretty bad Morgan State team, but losses to TCU
and Michigan, A very close call against South Carolina State.
Where are you in relation to the Musketeers compared to
what we last talked a few weeks ago.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Yeah, I am not at all impressed Xavier.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
I think of all of the teams who are kind
of in the maybe top thirty discussion the preseason, they've
got to be one of the most disappointing teams in
the country this year. I came into the season already
much lower on them than I saw from a lot
of people. I had them ranked thirtieth nationally in the preseason,
and I think a lot of people were giving them
top twenty, top fifteen leve according to my statistical models,
(01:58):
what I saw from their ross, and this is certainly
playing out, just wasn't quite as impressed. They're down closer
to fifty now and certainly on the outside looking in
in terms of the NCAA tournament picture. Depth for them
is a major issue. They have a solid starting five players,
but the drop up after those five is huge. According
(02:19):
to my player value metric that basically looks at how
impactful of your player is supposed to be, all eight
Cincinnati rotation players rank better than Xager's top bench guy,
So after their top five it's a massive drop and
so I think that's one of the biggest issues they've
seen this season. I think Cincinnati, probably in this game,
has at least according to the metrics, has a positional
(02:41):
advantage in almost every single position through the bench except
for Zagers star player in Deck Fremantle. So I'm just
not impressed with them at all. I think they've they
really you know, you're they're not expecting to win this
game this weekend, necessarily just because they're going to be
on the road. You know it's going to be a
big home game for the Bearcats. But when you already
(03:02):
look at how they perform so far, a lot to
a TCU team that's not very good. They weren't even
close against Michigan on a neutral Their win against wake
Forest does not look anywhere near as good as it
did the beginning the season. Definitely a lot of worrying things.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
Rexavier, Uh, all.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
Right, So if I if the Musketeers win, you'll you'll
be the guy that they send me in tweets to
just just FYI. You mentioned you mentioned metrics in uce
and and I think the toughest game they've played was
the Villanova game and they lost. And so I think
there's a lot of folks who go, well, we don't
know a lot about them because they haven't beaten anybody.
Advanced metrics like the ones that you use, tend to
(03:38):
flatten that out. So what do you say to someone
who goes, look is as favorably as you may view them,
they really haven't been tested in games that they have won.
They haven't beaten quote, anybody, And so I'm not quite
buying in the way that you do.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Yeah, certainly we don't have the full picture yet on
how Cincinnati is going to perform against a top twenty
five teams. Obviously going to get plenty of those opportunities
in Big Twelve play because the conference is loaded. But basically,
when you're looking at a predictive team stat like mine,
which is basically saying going forward, how good is this
team supposed to be, Essentially what it looks at is
it says, for every single game that a team has played,
(04:16):
what was the expectation for how much they should if
they're a favorite, how much they should win that game by,
and then did they exceed or not exceed that expectation?
And for most of the games that Cincinnati has played
this year, they have far exceeded expectations for those games
in terms of beating teams by a much more convincing margin.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
And so even though they.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
Don't have a marquee went on their schedule yet a
team like a top fifteen team should be beating teams
as as good as they are, and if they weren't
this good, they would not have been handling competition as
easily because a lot of other teams struggle to put.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
Away opponents like Cincinnati has.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
So you take all that stuff into account, I still
think once we enter some of their harder matchups, obviously
you know this. This matchup against behavior is certainly one
of them, but it's going to get even harder going forward.
I still think from what we've seen from them in
their previous matchups, based on how they've handled business, even
that with a step up in competition, I still think
they're gonna fare pretty well.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
All right. Emm miakaw was with us evanmia dot com.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
You have.
Speaker 4 (05:18):
A game predictions.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
Section on your website, brain fart by me, You've got
matchup previews, and so I don't want to give away
your content. Can I ask you for a snapshot of
two other games happening on Saturday.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Yeah, let's do it.
Speaker 4 (05:33):
Kentucky versus Louisville.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
Let me pull that up real quick here. It's certainly
a matchup with a lot of storylines. You know, this
is a tough matchup for Louisville just because they're going
on the road against the Kentucky team that has obviously
far surpass expectations. I have Kentucky favored by thirteen points
in this game, which you know, seems like a lot,
but really I think that speaks as much to Kentucky
(05:58):
being good. The other problem with Louisville is that they
just are completely hammered in terms of injuries. They had
four players coming into the season that you would have
hoped to be major rotation pieces that are all out
for the rest of the season. And you've got another player,
you know, who's a rotation piece for them, who's also
not going to be in this game. So, I mean,
I mentioned Xavier has death issues. Louisville basically only has
(06:20):
like six serviceable players, and no matter what, that's going
to be tough for you for you in any game.
So you know, prospects for them in the short term
are not very good. They're going to have a hard
time getting through. Even once they get slightly more healthy.
I still think it's a much tougher task for them
to make a tournament this year than even.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
A couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
So even with Kentucky having some issy injury issues with
themselves to both their point guards, you know, kind of
having to heal up from injuries there, I still think
Kentucky should be a firm favorite in this game.
Speaker 4 (06:49):
One more Dayton versus Marquette.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Yeah, this is a very exciting game. I think I
heard somewhere that this is the highest ranked team in
a long time that Dayton has hosted at home. In Marquette,
and so I have this game pretty close to a
toss up. I actually have Dayton favored by about a
point in this game, and part of that is because not.
Speaker 3 (07:13):
Only is it at home, which is a huge boost
for them.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
I think they're top thirty five team nationally. I certainly
think they could cause a lot of damage in March, but.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
They've also played.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
One of the things that track on my website is
how well teams play based on if you're playing a
really good opponent or really bad opponent, Because there are
some teams that really can dog walks, teams that they're
a major favorite against, but in big games that kind
of struggle, and other teams are kind of the opposite,
where they struggle to put to win big against teams
that are they should be, you know, destroying, but they
(07:43):
always show up for big time games. And that is
what Dayton is this year, and a lot of their
biggest games, they haven't won all of them, but they've
showed up really well, and so I certainly have a
lot of confidence in them this game, not necessarily picking
them as a firm favorite, but I certainly think they
have a pretty decent chance of winning this game. It's
going to be very exciting, a big test for Marquette
on the road. Led like Kim Jones, who's you know,
(08:05):
probably top two right now in the national Player of
the Year watch for sure.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
What will folks find when they go to Evanmeia dot com.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
I mean there's a lot of stuff.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
There's a lot of free There's a lot of free
things that you can see if you just want to
kind of dip in. There's player ratings, team ratings, but
if you want to subscribe to any sort of level
of data access. I had game predictions, matchup previews.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
As you mentioned, I do a.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
Lot of lineup analysis, so a lot of different lineup metrics,
looking at which team's lineups or even combinations of two
or three players are playing the best, you know, come
to off season. The transfer portal is another big part
of my website and evaluating players. So there's really a
lot for pretty much everyone.
Speaker 4 (08:44):
Awesome stuff.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
Man, love having you on, Appreciate you talking about those games.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
We'll chat soon, man, Thanks so much.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
Sounds good.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Looking forward to a really fun weekend of basketball.
And among all the people that we've had on I
wanted an objective voice based on facts and analytics and
data to break down this game on Saturday. So Evan
kind enough to join us. His website is evanmia dot com. Evan,
how are you.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
I'm doing good.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
I'm doing good.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Are you as bullish on the Bearcats as you were
two and a half weeks ago?
Speaker 2 (00:20):
So justin smid less bullish, But I'm not at all
discouraged by the last two games that they've had. So
you know, last time that we talked, it was going
into their game on the road against Villanova, and you know,
they were probably four or five point favorite heading into
that game. But certainly that's a tough, a tough.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Game no matter what.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Villanova has looked a lot better in the last couple
of weeks. Somethink that loss doesn't look quite.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
As bad as it did initially.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
And so I only have since he down a couple
spots from when we last talked. So I think they
were a top ten team according to my predictive team.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Ratings a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
They're down to I think, yeah, thirteen, but that's still
top fifteen in the Country. I'm still very high on
them going into Big twelve play, certainly ahead of this
crossdown SHOOTOU against Xavier. I still think they're a comfortable favorite,
so I'm not selling any of mine Cincinnati stock. I'm
still really optimistic about them going forward.
Speaker 4 (01:13):
All right now.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
We also talked before Xavier went into I hate to
say Tailspin. They lost two games, but they they haven't
played great recently. They did House well. I think it's
a pretty bad Morgan State team, but losses to TCU
and Michigan, A very close call against South Carolina State.
Where are you in relation to the Musketeers compared to
what we last talked a few weeks ago.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Yeah, I am not at all impressed Xavier.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
I think of all of the teams who are kind
of in the maybe top thirty discussion the preseason, they've
got to be one of the most disappointing teams in
the country this year. I came into the season already
much lower on them than I saw from a lot
of people. I had them ranked thirtieth nationally in the preseason,
and I think a lot of people were giving them
top twenty, top fifteen leve according to my statistical models,
(01:58):
what I saw from their ross, and this is certainly
playing out, just wasn't quite as impressed. They're down closer
to fifty now and certainly on the outside looking in
in terms of the NCAA tournament picture. Depth for them
is a major issue. They have a solid starting five players,
but the drop up after those five is huge. According
(02:19):
to my player value metric that basically looks at how
impactful of your player is supposed to be, all eight
Cincinnati rotation players rank better than Xager's top bench guy,
So after their top five it's a massive drop and
so I think that's one of the biggest issues they've
seen this season. I think Cincinnati, probably in this game,
has at least according to the metrics, has a positional
(02:41):
advantage in almost every single position through the bench except
for Zagers star player in Deck Fremantle. So I'm just
not impressed with them at all. I think they've they
really you know, you're they're not expecting to win this
game this weekend, necessarily just because they're going to be
on the road. You know it's going to be a
big home game for the Bearcats. But when you already
(03:02):
look at how they perform so far, a lot to
a TCU team that's not very good. They weren't even
close against Michigan on a neutral Their win against wake
Forest does not look anywhere near as good as it
did the beginning the season. Definitely a lot of worrying things.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
Rexavier, Uh, all.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
Right, So if I if the Musketeers win, you'll you'll
be the guy that they send me in tweets to
just just FYI. You mentioned you mentioned metrics in uce
and and I think the toughest game they've played was
the Villanova game and they lost. And so I think
there's a lot of folks who go, well, we don't
know a lot about them because they haven't beaten anybody.
Advanced metrics like the ones that you use, tend to
(03:38):
flatten that out. So what do you say to someone
who goes, look is as favorably as you may view them,
they really haven't been tested in games that they have won.
They haven't beaten quote, anybody, And so I'm not quite
buying in the way that you do.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Yeah, certainly we don't have the full picture yet on
how Cincinnati is going to perform against a top twenty
five teams. Obviously going to get plenty of those opportunities
in Big Twelve play because the conference is loaded. But basically,
when you're looking at a predictive team stat like mine,
which is basically saying going forward, how good is this
team supposed to be, Essentially what it looks at is
it says, for every single game that a team has played,
(04:16):
what was the expectation for how much they should if
they're a favorite, how much they should win that game by,
and then did they exceed or not exceed that expectation?
And for most of the games that Cincinnati has played
this year, they have far exceeded expectations for those games
in terms of beating teams by a much more convincing margin.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
And so even though they.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
Don't have a marquee went on their schedule yet a
team like a top fifteen team should be beating teams
as as good as they are, and if they weren't
this good, they would not have been handling competition as
easily because a lot of other teams struggle to put.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
Away opponents like Cincinnati has.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
So you take all that stuff into account, I still
think once we enter some of their harder matchups, obviously
you know this. This matchup against behavior is certainly one
of them, but it's going to get even harder going forward.
I still think from what we've seen from them in
their previous matchups, based on how they've handled business, even
that with a step up in competition, I still think
they're gonna fare pretty well.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
All right. Emm miakaw was with us evanmia dot com.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
You have.
Speaker 4 (05:18):
A game predictions.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
Section on your website, brain fart by me, You've got
matchup previews, and so I don't want to give away
your content. Can I ask you for a snapshot of
two other games happening on Saturday.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Yeah, let's do it.
Speaker 4 (05:33):
Kentucky versus Louisville.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
Let me pull that up real quick here. It's certainly
a matchup with a lot of storylines. You know, this
is a tough matchup for Louisville just because they're going
on the road against the Kentucky team that has obviously
far surpass expectations. I have Kentucky favored by thirteen points
in this game, which you know, seems like a lot,
but really I think that speaks as much to Kentucky
(05:58):
being good. The other problem with Louisville is that they
just are completely hammered in terms of injuries. They had
four players coming into the season that you would have
hoped to be major rotation pieces that are all out
for the rest of the season. And you've got another player,
you know, who's a rotation piece for them, who's also
not going to be in this game. So, I mean,
I mentioned Xavier has death issues. Louisville basically only has
(06:20):
like six serviceable players, and no matter what, that's going
to be tough for you for you in any game.
So you know, prospects for them in the short term
are not very good. They're going to have a hard
time getting through. Even once they get slightly more healthy.
I still think it's a much tougher task for them
to make a tournament this year than even.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
A couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
So even with Kentucky having some issy injury issues with
themselves to both their point guards, you know, kind of
having to heal up from injuries there, I still think
Kentucky should be a firm favorite in this game.
Speaker 4 (06:49):
One more Dayton versus Marquette.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Yeah, this is a very exciting game. I think I
heard somewhere that this is the highest ranked team in
a long time that Dayton has hosted at home. In Marquette,
and so I have this game pretty close to a
toss up. I actually have Dayton favored by about a
point in this game, and part of that is because not.
Speaker 3 (07:13):
Only is it at home, which is a huge boost
for them.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
I think they're top thirty five team nationally. I certainly
think they could cause a lot of damage in March, but.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
They've also played.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
One of the things that track on my website is
how well teams play based on if you're playing a
really good opponent or really bad opponent, Because there are
some teams that really can dog walks, teams that they're
a major favorite against, but in big games that kind
of struggle, and other teams are kind of the opposite,
where they struggle to put to win big against teams
that are they should be, you know, destroying, but they
(07:43):
always show up for big time games. And that is
what Dayton is this year, and a lot of their
biggest games, they haven't won all of them, but they've
showed up really well, and so I certainly have a
lot of confidence in them this game, not necessarily picking
them as a firm favorite, but I certainly think they
have a pretty decent chance of winning this game. It's
going to be very exciting, a big test for Marquette
on the road. Led like Kim Jones, who's you know,
(08:05):
probably top two right now in the national Player of
the Year watch for sure.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
What will folks find when they go to Evanmeia dot com.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
I mean there's a lot of stuff.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
There's a lot of free There's a lot of free
things that you can see if you just want to
kind of dip in. There's player ratings, team ratings, but
if you want to subscribe to any sort of level
of data access. I had game predictions, matchup previews.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
As you mentioned, I do a.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
Lot of lineup analysis, so a lot of different lineup metrics,
looking at which team's lineups or even combinations of two
or three players are playing the best, you know, come
to off season. The transfer portal is another big part
of my website and evaluating players. So there's really a
lot for pretty much everyone.
Speaker 4 (08:44):
Awesome stuff.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
Man, love having you on, Appreciate you talking about those games.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
We'll chat soon, man, Thanks so much.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
Sounds good.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Looking forward to a really fun weekend of basketball.
Mo Egger News
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.
True Crime Tonight
If you eat, sleep, and breathe true crime, TRUE CRIME TONIGHT is serving up your nightly fix. Five nights a week, KT STUDIOS & iHEART RADIO invite listeners to pull up a seat for an unfiltered look at the biggest cases making headlines, celebrity scandals, and the trials everyone is watching. With a mix of expert analysis, hot takes, and listener call-ins, TRUE CRIME TONIGHT goes beyond the headlines to uncover the twists, turns, and unanswered questions that keep us all obsessed—because, at TRUE CRIME TONIGHT, there’s a seat for everyone. Whether breaking down crime scene forensics, scrutinizing serial killers, or debating the most binge-worthy true crime docs, True Crime Tonight is the fresh, fast-paced, and slightly addictive home for true crime lovers.