Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
ZESPN fifteen thirty, Al Golden and Dan Pitcher have spoken
in Indie. You'll hear from both in fifteen minutes. The
Combine is happening in Indianapolis.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
We're gonna go there now.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
You know.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
We love the folks at Sumer sportssumer sports dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Our guys.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
Sean Saya joins us every year during the season. Joined
us a couple of weeks ago. Lindsay Rhodes from U
suomer Sports is with us. She is at the Combine
and during what I'm sure is an extraordinarily busy few
days for her kind enough to join us. Lindsay, It's
awesome to have you.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
How are you?
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Thank you so much. I'm happy to be with you.
I'm having a great day.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
I'm sure. I'm sure. I want you to touch on
this first. So, for years people have watched the Combine,
and I don't want to say I have made fun
of it, but express skepticism as to whether or not
what we're watching in terms of the three cone drill
and the forty yard dash and all the different exercises
we watch. For years people have wondered, like, how much
does any of that really translate into success? At the
(00:58):
National Football League level from your guys vantage point, which
is deeply analytical and really really smart. What should we
do with combined results when we start to figure out
what some of these guys are going to do at
the next level.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
Probably not much, to be honest with you, which isn't
to say that it is not valuable and that teams
don't need the information, and I'll get back to why
they still do need the information, but I do think
that we've looked into different position drills and their correlation
numbers to success in the NFL in their first three years,
(01:36):
which we look at three years because that's when you
have to make a decision about whether or not to
you know, give them a second contract, and also correlation
numbers between like the position drill like a forty time
for instance, result and then draft position. And we found
that the correlation numbers pretty much across the board for
a bunch of different positions and pretty much every single
(01:58):
drill that you could do or like the measurable parts
of the combine are really minimal. And we actually my colleague,
my colleague Sam Bruckhouse just posted an article. It's up
on the suomer Sports website right now that is about
NFL combine by position, how do these positions predict ANFL success?
(02:19):
And he goes through all of the different correlation metrics,
but essentially you're looking at like best case scenario, you
have a correlation of like twenty percent, thirty percent. That's low, right.
So I think the reason that it still has value
to the teams, however, is because although they're using a
lot of tracking data, and certainly film is king and
(02:40):
so whatever they've put on tape is the primary evaluation.
And then the tracking data and we have the ability
at Zoomer Sports with a model that we built to
evaluate to even kind of put numbers next to certain
trait evaluations and so you can measure them in so
many different ways now using the data that we're gathering
(03:01):
from what they're actually doing on the field and games.
I think that's second, and then I think that the
combine is valuable because the teams like to have historical
data that they can comp to all of the past
people at that position. So for instance, a wide receiver
who runs a forty now and also you know, does
the vert or whatever. They're collecting a series of numbers
(03:23):
and then they can put it into their database and
they can compare it to all wide receivers like in
nineteen ninety three and in two thousand and four, and
so since we didn't have all of these tracking data
metrics back then, that's the easy comp to just compare
them numerically to a whole historical database, and so it
has value to them in that way. I think it's
(03:45):
super fun to watch. But aside from maybe like the drills,
like in terms of like you know, quarterbacks out they're
throwing the ball, or like doing the on field drills part,
I would say that's probably the most valuable thing. The
forties are fun, but I wouldn't get bent out of
shape if a guy doesn't run fast, and I would
get too excited if the guy runs real fast.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
So I ask you this for because I want to.
I want to follow it up with two different questions.
One is about a guy that the Bengals I'm sure
would be interested if he's there, and that's Ruben Bain,
because I could watch the tape and tell you, man,
that guy, that guy's a load, that guy's going to
be tough to block, that guy can make an immediate impact.
But all I'm going to hear this week is how
short his arms are? So what should I do with that?
Speaker 3 (04:29):
I would also advise you to do nothing with that?
And I mean I know, right like what a call
you guys this week means nothing? Have fun watching. I
think that the arm length thing is. I mean, they're
definitely scouts and general manager who probably disagree with me
and say that there are definitely there are, like, it
(04:50):
doesn't matter unless you go below this threshold. But what
I would argue is that Ruby Bain had whatever his
arms measure, that's what they measured last year when he
was doing what he did at Miami, and that's what
they measured the year before and the year before that,
and so he has clearly figured out a way to
compensate for whatever size he doesn't have in his arm length.
(05:13):
Same story with Will Campbell. And by the way, we
had this exact same conversation about Will Campbell last year.
And look where he went in the draft and look
at how he I mean, he didn't have a great
Super Bowl, that's a different story. Went up against a
very very good defense, but he had a great first
season in the league. Like he's clearly like the hit
on the pick, So I think that a lot of
this is noise more than anything. And I think where
(05:37):
it really becomes, where it really maybe factors into a
team's decision making process, is if there is a tie
or if you have a bunch of players bucketed on
the same tier and you just need a tiebreaker, and
you say, look, these guys are even we love them both.
We think both of them have the same chance, and
(05:59):
maybe this is a flight negative like that could impede
his path. It provides one less path to success. So
we're going to go any other directions. But I wouldn't like, oh, shoot,
his arms measured at whatever, and so we're going to
drop him tinpots like that just doesn't make any sense.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
So the Bengals last year Lindsay Rose is with us
from a sumersports dot com. The Bengals last year took
a guy in Shamar Stewart, and it kind of put
them at the epicenter of the trades versus production debate
where Shamar Stuart, you know, he had a lot of disruptions,
but he rarely finished plays. One and a half sacks
his final season in college, four and a half across
his three years. But it was, hey, we love the traits.
(06:41):
We love the physical specimen that he is. Here's how
he stacks up against guys who are in the NFL. So,
based on everything you outlined for me, based on what
we know about Shamar Stewart, and you know his rookie
season was impacted by injury, nobody's giving up on him.
But I think a lot of folks here have been like,
you know what, forget the traits, show me what the
guy does on film, Show me what the guy does
(07:01):
when he's playing football. Based on what you know about
the Cincinnati Bengals, how should they deviate from sort of,
you know, taking the trades over what the guy actually
puts on film.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
I think that there needs to be a mix of both,
and I think I think the film is first. And
by the way, the I mean you can say with
Shamar Stewart there was a lack of production numbers, but
only really when it led to SAX specifically, right, And
so there's another layer to this conversation, which is pressures
(07:38):
versus SAX. And so we talked so much about his
inability to finish the play on SAX, but how many
pressures did he have? Did we just skip that whole part?
Of the conversation is he still somehow impacting a play
even though he's not ending it, because there is an
EPA loss for the offense even when there is a pressure.
(07:59):
And so obviously a sack is the ideal outcome for
a defense because the play is dead and you have
lost yardage. And we have a very specific tangible number
that we can look at that measured success. But if
there's pressure, I looked up the state, and I don't
have it off the top of my head. It's like
an eighty three percent drop in expected EPA per play
(08:22):
if you have a clean pocket versus a pocket that
has pressure associated with it. So over the course of
a year, add up the number of pressures that you're
adding to the mix, and maybe that results in a throwaway,
Maybe that results in a poor throw. Maybe that results
in a poor throw that is intercepted. Like, there just
isn't as clean a way to measure the outcome there.
But if I tell you that there's an eighty three
(08:43):
percent loss in expected points out an efficiency on those plays,
then there's a more tangible way to look at the
pressure as having been impactful. Also, So I think there's
a lot of different ways to look at this, I
do think that if you are if the conversation is
he didn't produce in college, meaning he wasn't good in college,
(09:04):
But man, look at how fast he is and look
at how big he is, and like that's that's a
dumb way to evaluate somebody. Then you can't get over
sold on somebody who's trade cy in that sense. The
production in terms of you were a good college player
that impacted plays in a lot of ways, that has
to be there. What does that production look like in
terms of a number, that's a different conversation.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
Why did they make offensive lineman run the forty yard dash?
Speaker 3 (09:32):
I'm so glad you asked that because we just had
did you like my like gas put there a yes? Okay, so,
And I'm so glad you asked that today because yesterday
I had a different answer. We talked to Sam Schwartzein
today on the Sumer Sports Show for an episode that
hasn't even posted yet, so sneak pray view. He used
(09:53):
to be an offensive lineman at Stanford and is the
guy who created the kickoff rules this year for the
NFL and does the Amazon Prime Vision games. So he's
like a data nerd but also a football player who
played offensive line. He said, And I think it's the
perfect framing for this, that the forty are dash is
a fitness test for offensive linemen. And now think about it,
(10:14):
what you're actually looking for in like a tackle for instance,
you selize this is a physical specimen that is a unicorn.
You cannot find people who are that tall and that
size from a weight standpoint, and also that athletic, Like
it is hard to find people who have all of
that skill set in there to play offensive line, and
(10:36):
all of those things are necessary, especially to tackle. So
now you're on a forty how in shape are you?
And now the forty are dash it's not really about
the time, but it is about are you athletic and
physically fit enough to fit within a certain percentage parameter
against your peers, or are you big and your your
(10:59):
gas running forty yard or you're slow, like maybe that
will lead to having ankle problems or injury issues because
your body just can't hold up under the the conditions
that it needs to within the course of the season.
And when he said that, I was like, I'm never
going to look at that like all the same way,
Like I think I think that's such a smart way
(11:20):
to look at it, Like it's not about the number,
it's literally are you athletic enough to do this well?
And that's so important for those positions in ways that
I think are under discussed.
Speaker 1 (11:30):
So the offensive lineman should run the forty. But here
would be my recommendation because we had Andre Smith here
seventeen years ago and he ran it without his shirt.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
That was a mistake, So just have something on.
Speaker 3 (11:40):
I wouldn't nash no, no, Although isn't it funny like
if I was on the line, how many years ago
did you say that was?
Speaker 2 (11:50):
That was two thousand and nine, seventeen years ago?
Speaker 3 (11:53):
Oh God, isn't that wild that many years ago? Anyway,
I feel like body changes in the trenches, like they
just look different now for the most part. Like remember
like the Vince Wilforks of the world of either defensive tackles,
and like those bodies don't exist anymore. They exist at guard, right,
(12:14):
I mean, like you always have that guard that pops
up that's from a small school like North Dakota State.
It's always North Dakota State, like Sacramento State or something
like that, and they are they're always wearing a cutoff
at the senior Bowl, and they always have long hair
and maybe maybe like dental works that they need. Like
it's such a specific snapshot of the guards and sometimes centers,
(12:37):
but the people that come out of nowhere at this
time of year and feel like the stars. But yeah,
I feel like for the most part, you look at
an edge and they have to be so lean and
so athletic and even defensive tackles and then certainly offensive tackles.
Like you just there's such a degree of athleticism and.
Speaker 4 (12:54):
Speed kind of and not like long speed, not the
forty speed, but just like the ability to kind of
move quickly and react fast that is so necessary in
today's game.
Speaker 3 (13:04):
I've found it very fascinating how the bodies have just changed.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
It's interesting, you know, tackles now look like tight ends
used to and tight ends now look like wide receivers.
It's you've seen that sort of ripple effect, you know,
as you go from inside to out in the sport.
Speaker 3 (13:18):
Yeah, and some of these tight ends are wide receivers. Yeah,
which is another layer of like how I feel like
we're especially now you're starting to see a lot of
the heavy tight end personnel groupings that we talked about
this year with the Seahawks running a ton of twelve
and the Rams running a ton of thirteen. Personnel For
people who aren't familiar with those numbers means the first
number in the number twelve, it's the one refers to
(13:40):
how many running backs are on the field. The second
number the two in twelve, or first how many tight
ends are on the field, and then the leftovers is
how many wide receivers are on the field. But so
many heavy tight end packages that we saw this year
on really good offenses, and I kind of wonder if
that's not a trend of something that people copy moving forward.
Did we talk all the time about it being a
(14:00):
coffeecat league, But because the goal of that is to
get your defense in base, because base is not base anymore,
Like everybody wants to put all of these cornerbacks on
the field, and Nickel now is essentially five dbs is
the defense that defenses are running out most frequently, So
you want to get them out of that so that
(14:21):
you can throw on them more efficiently, because throwing is
a better way to move the ball downfield easily or
quickly efficiently than running the ball. So you'll run the
ball a lot, and you'll put tight ends on the
field to make it look like you're going to run
the ball a lot so that you can get the
look that you want in the passing game. But because
you're doing that, you're putting more tighten. Now you need
more tight ends on your roster. And I wonder if
(14:44):
we're going to start seeing teams start to just gobble
up tight ends. And as you do that, then you
can have like one guy who's more of a blocking
tight end, but you can metabolize that a little bit
and take a tight end like Aroanda Gadsden from the Chargers.
Remember he kind of had like a few weeks there
where he popped early in the season and he was
a converted wide receiver literally and and kind of came
(15:05):
out of nowhere and was a great pass catching option
for a little while. I wonder if more teams aren't
going to start doing that. And as they start doing
that and making the tight end the number one target
in the offense, like a train McBride is in Arizona,
you know, at some point we've got to start talking
about paying them more money.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
This is, uh, this is really high end and I'm
glad you're here. I have one more No, it is
this is.
Speaker 3 (15:26):
Good saying nerdy, which I also think.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
No, this is the No, this is good, this is
the but because I say that, because I got to
bring up one more thing, and you've been generous with
your time, do you mind this is.
Speaker 2 (15:37):
Maybe not quite as high end. I'm good. I'm going
to give you a little backstory here. Are you ready?
Speaker 1 (15:43):
I follow you on on Twitter or we still call
it Twitter x whatever. And on Monday night, I am
laying in a hotel room in Lubbock, Texas.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
And in the hotel room there are two beds.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
This is like a little bit after a little bit
after midnight, Texas time had gone to heck, it was
there for a college basketball game. And I go get
dinner and I go get a nightcap. I'm laying in bed.
I'm scrolling and I see a post from you and
it reads and I'll read it verbatim, hotel, two beds,
it's just you. Are you taking the bed closest to
(16:16):
the door or the window? And I was gonna chime in.
Then I thought, wait a minute, Lindsay's gonna join me.
This is gonna be awesome. And I read all the replies.
Nobody has my perspective on this, and I wanted to
share it with you.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
Are you ready?
Speaker 4 (16:28):
WOA?
Speaker 1 (16:29):
It depends on how you feel about cleaning people coming
into your room.
Speaker 3 (16:34):
Oh that's a first of all, not a fan, right,
I'm a privacy on the door the entire time.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
Right.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
So the way I look at it is, and I
was in Monday night when you sent this tweet.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
I'm in the same predicament.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
Two beds, and I said, well, I slept in that
one last night and I'm sleeping in this one tonight
because there's nothing better than getting into a nice made bed.
But you know, if you like the cleaning person, they'll
come in and make it for you. If you're like
me not a slob. So I don't need a cleaning
person every day. Don't love them coming in. I'd prefer
(17:07):
to not have them in at all. It was a
two nights day, so basically I don't have a cleaning
person for the duration of this day, and on both
nights I get a tucked in, made bed and I'm set.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
So there's the answer.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
That is a great answer. I am a slob, and
that's part of the reason they don't want them in
because they don't want to have to clean up for
the cleaning lady when I'm away and also busy. But
I yeah, I think that that's fascinating that you switch
when you're there. Yes, I have found and most people
a lot of people responded window, and a lot of
(17:42):
people responded window because it was closest to the air
conditioning in a lot of hotel rooms and they wanted
that or whatever. There were a lot of responses that
said that they were at wherever it made sense in
terms of eyeline with the TV. And I think that
that's maybe my rash. Now I have been racking my brain.
(18:03):
I supped in the one closest to the door, have
been sleeping in the one closest to the door here
in Indy, and I think that that's why. I think
it's TV proximity and I'm just trained to go to
wherever even though I'm not watching TV here. So it's
a totally irrelevant concept. But I think just I scan
the layout of the room and then go, that's where
(18:24):
I will be. But I'm not one hundred percent sure
that's the reason for me.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
Yeah, So for me, it's always if I'm there multiple nights.
It's both beds, I'm going to use both if it's
one of the other, I guess I sleep away from
the bathroom for reasons that we are not going to
talk about here. I told this is a high end
this is high end stuff. For talking about here, I
can't think.
Speaker 3 (18:43):
You should do like a caller segment of Yeah Day.
Speaker 2 (18:45):
That might be what we do next.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
Yeah, let's just talk about Trey Hendricks some more. I'd
rather talk about the hotel. Get up, enjoy the time
in Indiga. Can't thank you enough. We love the Suomer Sports.
The folks at Suomer Sports are always so kind to
us and awesome to have you.
Speaker 3 (18:57):
Thank you so much, thank you for having me.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
That's Lindsay Rhoads from the Combine and Indie the Suomer
Sports Show. Check out sumer sports dot com. We are
extraordinarily late. I will tell you that I was gonna
tell you that the Reds game is over, but instead
I'm looking at a blank screen.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
It's over.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
They won the game three two. Uh more amazing content
like what you just listened to. Next on ESPN fifteen to.
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Thirty, Cincinnati's ESPN fifteen thirty Traffic.
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be seen.
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Schedule online at ucehealth dot com.
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Westbound seventy four, the off ramp to eastbound two seventy
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That disabled garbage truck has been towed away.
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ramp from Montgomery Road, right shoulder block down the ramp.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
I'm at ez that like with traffic, this report