March 26, 2025 • 9 mins
Josh Inglis from Covers.com joined us to discuss some Reds-related gambling issues, including the season's win total, their playoff odds, and a prop he loves. We also touched on a few other MLB prop possibilities.
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Podcasts of The Mo Egger Radio Show are a service of Longnecks Sports Grill.
Listen to the show live weekday afternoons 3:00 - 6:00 on ESPN1530.
Listen Live: ESPN1530.com/listen
Get more: https://linktr.ee/MoEgger
Follow on X: @MoEgger
Instagram too: @MoEgger
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's Opening Day, Eve, let's talk gambling. I do this
every year, and let's be honest. I think the Reds
this century have been the worst team in baseball at
hitting the over. And I know this from experience because
every year I bet the over because I want something
to root for in September, and I usually don't win.
This year, it's seventy eight and a half at covers
(00:20):
dot com, which is where Josh Ingles is covers dot com.
Follow him on x at Covers Underscore, Josh seventy eight
and a half? Should I make my over wager again?
Speaker 2 (00:32):
So it's all relatives to where the other win totals
are within the division. Pittsburgh seventy seven and a half.
I can't feel good as a Cincinnati fan. Let's be honest,
and Saint Louis at seventy six and a half while
the Cops are at eighty five and a half. So
the betting market's saying that the Reds are closer to
Pittsburgh and Saint Louis than they are Chicago and Milwaukee
(00:53):
at the top, and if you look, you can bet
like where they'll finish within the division. The betting favorite
is dead last. Thirty two percent implied probability plus two
to fifteen for the Reds to finish fit. Now, there
are a lot of issues with this Red team. Let's
be honest. I think it looks like can we be fair?
(01:13):
It's it's really a ball club that suited for probably
one of the best hitting parks in all of baseball.
There's one guy, one position player, and that's Allie that's
over six feet in the starting lineup. And this was
a team that had a bullpending gave up more home
runs than any other National League team last year, terror
home long run games. It's a tough spot and I'm
(01:36):
not really sold on the Red I know they're exciting.
I'm a blue Jay said I love the youth movement.
It was exciting for a time, but then you realize
that winning is probably more important than you. Guys Chase
Milwaukee year in and year after, and you see that
roster and you're like, how it's his team still winning.
They just know how to get it done. And sadly,
I'm not really sold on Cincinnati in terms of that
(01:59):
win total. I think if you're Cincinnati fan and you
want to get in on the standing angle this year,
I think that plus three hundred or so could make
the playoffs. Don't do that, don't touch that one. Go
bet Terry Francona for Manager of the Year plus five hundred.
That's probably a better chance if they get it. Terry's
one of the betting favorites for the an OL Manager
of the Year at that price. So if they do
(02:20):
get in, Terry Arcona will have a very good chance.
If you don't have a good chance at winning that award,
and if they even get close, you also have that
extra out too, all right.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
I like that. I think a lot of people have
looked at the Reds you talked about to make the
playoffs plus three hundred. I think in a division where
like it feels like the wild card winner is or
a wildcard winner is not going to come out of
the National League Central, so it's win the division or bust,
it does feel like nobody is really capable of running
away with it. And I think a lot of people
have looked at the Reds plus four seventy five as
(02:52):
a good value play to win the Central. You would
recommend staying away from that.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Hundred percent. Yeah, it's not something that I'm running out
to get when I see all the projections that are
kind of on the under at seventy eight and a half,
I guess one of those things is a better where
you're like, wow, red steam, Okay, a decent year. Last
year had some bad variants in one run games, and
they can kind of get to five hundred and that
maybe get some extra wins, and just in your head,
(03:20):
you get to a number and then you look at
all the other projections and they're like seventy seven, seventy eight,
and there's nothing that's really pushing this to like an
eighty two, eighty three, eighty forty five where you probably
need to make the playoffs. So unless the division just
gets so tight and it's a doggy doggy division where
everybody just kind of beats up on each other, it's
(03:41):
just going to be so hard for them to win
this division. And like you said, the Dodgers, the Diamondbacks
of Padres, and then on the other side and laying
a filly in the mets, like which one of those
six are not going to make it, because you'll be
lucky if you get too from the division. Obviously.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
The Josh englescovers dot Com on x AT covers underscore, Josh,
I think you're going to have folks who hear this
conversation who are going to look at it this way.
They won seventy seven games last year, a disappointing season
because they were an above five hundred team in twenty
twenty three, but still seventy seven, so the bar is
pretty low. They were awful in one run games last year,
and so in that regard, the pendulum should swing a
(04:17):
little bit more in favor of at least getting closer
to five hundred and one run games. And if they
do that, they've got to win two more games this
year to sail past seventy eight and a half. And
yet you've thrown cold water over all of that.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
I know, I know. If it's not me, I'm leading
on projections as well. I'm not originating my own projections
on this. I'm just not seeing anything from Fangs go.
I'm not seeing anybody that really has this as an
outlier spot. And yet what I think that mark was
fifteen and twenty eight straight up in one run games.
There should be some variant swinging that way. They had
plus run back rent at plus five. That's pretty good
(04:52):
for a team that finished eight games under five hundred,
But in the spot it's there's not a lot of
places where I like this to be an eighty three
win team. Yeah, there's a little love at the top
of this order, but kind of after that, where do
you go. I do like the rotation. I mean, the
two Halkey lefties is awesome, but at the end of
(05:13):
the day, like this was a rotation that didn't get
a cut of innings last year. Hunter Green obviously is
I mean, is he gonna step up and be that
bona fide guy? Can they get something? Can they get
somewhere in that one hundred and eighty eating donement? Brady
Singer is actually a really great pit and that has
a lot to do with this fifty percent ground ball
(05:34):
ray and great American Ball Park. But there's just so
many swings. Like I said, if you want big plus
money and then you really want to tie up your
money for a prop that will probably win in the
last week or lose in the last week in baseball
tied up for six months now golf plus money. If
you want to go beat Ellie for MVP around ten
(05:55):
to one, twelve to one, that's probably a more exciting bet.
Or like I said Terry Rancona for manager in the
year around plus five hundred. I think if you're looking
to bet on the Reds, those are probably your two
best cases right there.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
Yeah, I think the LA MVP prop is is going
to be a popular one. So if I don't want
to attach any dough to the Reds hitting the over
this year, if I want to stay away, can you
give me a team that you like that you go,
you know what, throw some money here, root for them
to hit the over and stay away from the hometown team.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
I mean, there is no love for the Padres this year.
I understand the situation that's happening with ownership, but that
is being priced into a lot of these lines. They're
thirty to one. They're projected to finish third in division.
This is a team that might have to if everything
stays on course and they don't sell and they played
(06:48):
a full year and it's not a disaster in terms
of what they have to do with the roster. D
don't cease Michael Kay. That's one two punch I think,
and like that lineup one to Steve and is as
good as almost anywhere else. They show they can hang
with the Dodgers. And then that's where we are. That's
kind of where we need. I do like Arizona to
(07:09):
win some games, but I'm seeing the value kind of
fall on that. I just think there's a lot in
terms of what the padres at thirty to one at right,
Dylan to see sixty to one side young Dylan to
see ten Dylan Seeds tend to one to lead the
NL in strikeouts. When you see guys like Paul Schemes
and stuff like that and show they obviously he's not pitching.
(07:29):
But just in terms of their bedding markets, those are
guys you're not going to get any value. Choey o'tonis
plus one forty five for National League MVP. Guess what
that will be the same price come June fifteenth. That's
not getting any shorter anytime soon. So there's no rush
to get those guys. And those guys really just affect
the other markets. So in terms of wirelike value, San
(07:51):
Diego is where I'm really leaning. I mean, Dylan, see
Michael King, you Darvish. They picked up Nick Covetta, that's
a good one. Matt Waldron can be that swing guy
they need him. So there is a lot of arm
talent within that organization. Luisarees at the top of the
door like he's a candidate to get sold. So if
he stays fantastic so a piece, hopefully can get back
(08:12):
to some of his pre Isssue form. Jackson Merrell's getting
MVP left, and you have like Exander Bogarts in like
the in the seventh spot there in the sixth spot,
Like that's a pretty good lineup. I really like San
Diego this year, and I think the market's pricing them
low because of their situation that they might be trading
seats and they might be trading the rants.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
Yeah, looking at that wind tootallycovers dot Com at eighty
five and a half. Josh, where can I get more?
Speaker 2 (08:38):
Probably on Twitter? Just like you said on X everything's
in baseball do live release shows. We just dropped what
we dropped today, so exciting Chicago White Sox over fifty
three and a half wins, That's why we dropped what else.
The Yankees not to make the playoffs got plus two
forty today. That rotation is awful and the Mets underwin
(09:00):
so making a lot of people happy. Unless betting on
the White Sox to win more than fifty three games
after forty one last year. It's a tough tilb the swallow.
But like in Betty, that's value. If it sucks and
it's hard to bet on, there's usually value on that side.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
No question. Awesome stuff, man, do appreciate it. Hopefully we
can chat again soon, man, thanks so much.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
Yeah, good luck versus logan Web tomorrow, guys.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
I'll need it. I'm still I'm still making my wager.
Josh Ingles covers dot Com. Paul Danner Junior next
It's Opening Day, Eve, let's talk gambling. I do this
every year, and let's be honest. I think the Reds
this century have been the worst team in baseball at
hitting the over. And I know this from experience because
every year I bet the over because I want something
to root for in September, and I usually don't win.
This year, it's seventy eight and a half at covers
(00:20):
dot com, which is where Josh Ingles is covers dot com.
Follow him on x at Covers Underscore, Josh seventy eight
and a half? Should I make my over wager again?
Speaker 2 (00:32):
So it's all relatives to where the other win totals
are within the division. Pittsburgh seventy seven and a half.
I can't feel good as a Cincinnati fan. Let's be honest,
and Saint Louis at seventy six and a half while
the Cops are at eighty five and a half. So
the betting market's saying that the Reds are closer to
Pittsburgh and Saint Louis than they are Chicago and Milwaukee
(00:53):
at the top, and if you look, you can bet
like where they'll finish within the division. The betting favorite
is dead last. Thirty two percent implied probability plus two
to fifteen for the Reds to finish fit. Now, there
are a lot of issues with this Red team. Let's
be honest. I think it looks like can we be fair?
(01:13):
It's it's really a ball club that suited for probably
one of the best hitting parks in all of baseball.
There's one guy, one position player, and that's Allie that's
over six feet in the starting lineup. And this was
a team that had a bullpending gave up more home
runs than any other National League team last year, terror
home long run games. It's a tough spot and I'm
(01:36):
not really sold on the Red I know they're exciting.
I'm a blue Jay said I love the youth movement.
It was exciting for a time, but then you realize
that winning is probably more important than you. Guys Chase
Milwaukee year in and year after, and you see that
roster and you're like, how it's his team still winning.
They just know how to get it done. And sadly,
I'm not really sold on Cincinnati in terms of that
(01:59):
win total. I think if you're Cincinnati fan and you
want to get in on the standing angle this year,
I think that plus three hundred or so could make
the playoffs. Don't do that, don't touch that one. Go
bet Terry Francona for Manager of the Year plus five hundred.
That's probably a better chance if they get it. Terry's
one of the betting favorites for the an OL Manager
of the Year at that price. So if they do
(02:20):
get in, Terry Arcona will have a very good chance.
If you don't have a good chance at winning that award,
and if they even get close, you also have that
extra out too, all right.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
I like that. I think a lot of people have
looked at the Reds you talked about to make the
playoffs plus three hundred. I think in a division where
like it feels like the wild card winner is or
a wildcard winner is not going to come out of
the National League Central, so it's win the division or bust,
it does feel like nobody is really capable of running
away with it. And I think a lot of people
have looked at the Reds plus four seventy five as
(02:52):
a good value play to win the Central. You would
recommend staying away from that.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Hundred percent. Yeah, it's not something that I'm running out
to get when I see all the projections that are
kind of on the under at seventy eight and a half,
I guess one of those things is a better where
you're like, wow, red steam, Okay, a decent year. Last
year had some bad variants in one run games, and
they can kind of get to five hundred and that
maybe get some extra wins, and just in your head,
(03:20):
you get to a number and then you look at
all the other projections and they're like seventy seven, seventy eight,
and there's nothing that's really pushing this to like an
eighty two, eighty three, eighty forty five where you probably
need to make the playoffs. So unless the division just
gets so tight and it's a doggy doggy division where
everybody just kind of beats up on each other, it's
(03:41):
just going to be so hard for them to win
this division. And like you said, the Dodgers, the Diamondbacks
of Padres, and then on the other side and laying
a filly in the mets, like which one of those
six are not going to make it, because you'll be
lucky if you get too from the division. Obviously.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
The Josh englescovers dot Com on x AT covers underscore, Josh,
I think you're going to have folks who hear this
conversation who are going to look at it this way.
They won seventy seven games last year, a disappointing season
because they were an above five hundred team in twenty
twenty three, but still seventy seven, so the bar is
pretty low. They were awful in one run games last year,
and so in that regard, the pendulum should swing a
(04:17):
little bit more in favor of at least getting closer
to five hundred and one run games. And if they
do that, they've got to win two more games this
year to sail past seventy eight and a half. And
yet you've thrown cold water over all of that.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
I know, I know. If it's not me, I'm leading
on projections as well. I'm not originating my own projections
on this. I'm just not seeing anything from Fangs go.
I'm not seeing anybody that really has this as an
outlier spot. And yet what I think that mark was
fifteen and twenty eight straight up in one run games.
There should be some variant swinging that way. They had
plus run back rent at plus five. That's pretty good
(04:52):
for a team that finished eight games under five hundred,
But in the spot it's there's not a lot of
places where I like this to be an eighty three
win team. Yeah, there's a little love at the top
of this order, but kind of after that, where do
you go. I do like the rotation. I mean, the
two Halkey lefties is awesome, but at the end of
(05:13):
the day, like this was a rotation that didn't get
a cut of innings last year. Hunter Green obviously is
I mean, is he gonna step up and be that
bona fide guy? Can they get something? Can they get
somewhere in that one hundred and eighty eating donement? Brady
Singer is actually a really great pit and that has
a lot to do with this fifty percent ground ball
(05:34):
ray and great American Ball Park. But there's just so
many swings. Like I said, if you want big plus
money and then you really want to tie up your
money for a prop that will probably win in the
last week or lose in the last week in baseball
tied up for six months now golf plus money. If
you want to go beat Ellie for MVP around ten
(05:55):
to one, twelve to one, that's probably a more exciting bet.
Or like I said Terry Rancona for manager in the
year around plus five hundred. I think if you're looking
to bet on the Reds, those are probably your two
best cases right there.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
Yeah, I think the LA MVP prop is is going
to be a popular one. So if I don't want
to attach any dough to the Reds hitting the over
this year, if I want to stay away, can you
give me a team that you like that you go,
you know what, throw some money here, root for them
to hit the over and stay away from the hometown team.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
I mean, there is no love for the Padres this year.
I understand the situation that's happening with ownership, but that
is being priced into a lot of these lines. They're
thirty to one. They're projected to finish third in division.
This is a team that might have to if everything
stays on course and they don't sell and they played
(06:48):
a full year and it's not a disaster in terms
of what they have to do with the roster. D
don't cease Michael Kay. That's one two punch I think,
and like that lineup one to Steve and is as
good as almost anywhere else. They show they can hang
with the Dodgers. And then that's where we are. That's
kind of where we need. I do like Arizona to
(07:09):
win some games, but I'm seeing the value kind of
fall on that. I just think there's a lot in
terms of what the padres at thirty to one at right,
Dylan to see sixty to one side young Dylan to
see ten Dylan Seeds tend to one to lead the
NL in strikeouts. When you see guys like Paul Schemes
and stuff like that and show they obviously he's not pitching.
(07:29):
But just in terms of their bedding markets, those are
guys you're not going to get any value. Choey o'tonis
plus one forty five for National League MVP. Guess what
that will be the same price come June fifteenth. That's
not getting any shorter anytime soon. So there's no rush
to get those guys. And those guys really just affect
the other markets. So in terms of wirelike value, San
(07:51):
Diego is where I'm really leaning. I mean, Dylan, see
Michael King, you Darvish. They picked up Nick Covetta, that's
a good one. Matt Waldron can be that swing guy
they need him. So there is a lot of arm
talent within that organization. Luisarees at the top of the
door like he's a candidate to get sold. So if
he stays fantastic so a piece, hopefully can get back
(08:12):
to some of his pre Isssue form. Jackson Merrell's getting
MVP left, and you have like Exander Bogarts in like
the in the seventh spot there in the sixth spot,
Like that's a pretty good lineup. I really like San
Diego this year, and I think the market's pricing them
low because of their situation that they might be trading
seats and they might be trading the rants.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
Yeah, looking at that wind tootallycovers dot Com at eighty
five and a half. Josh, where can I get more?
Speaker 2 (08:38):
Probably on Twitter? Just like you said on X everything's
in baseball do live release shows. We just dropped what
we dropped today, so exciting Chicago White Sox over fifty
three and a half wins, That's why we dropped what else.
The Yankees not to make the playoffs got plus two
forty today. That rotation is awful and the Mets underwin
(09:00):
so making a lot of people happy. Unless betting on
the White Sox to win more than fifty three games
after forty one last year. It's a tough tilb the swallow.
But like in Betty, that's value. If it sucks and
it's hard to bet on, there's usually value on that side.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
No question. Awesome stuff, man, do appreciate it. Hopefully we
can chat again soon, man, thanks so much.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
Yeah, good luck versus logan Web tomorrow, guys.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
I'll need it. I'm still I'm still making my wager.
Josh Ingles covers dot Com. Paul Danner Junior next
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