Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Carrier Sports Talk presented by Kelsey CHEVROLEL seven hundred WLW
lances back on Monday night on our show on ESPN
fifteen thirty. You know, typically you get to the Super
Bowl and you turn the page and then people start
to pay closer attention to college basketball, and a lot
of folks look at bracketologists for the first time all
season long and take a look at what they may
(00:21):
be projecting for the NCAA tournament. And this has kind
of become a cottage industry. And there's like famous bracketologists.
You know, everybody knows Joe Lenardi and that's fine whatever.
Joelenardi has written books about bracketology. I wanted like our
own bracketologists, and so I found not that long ago
a guy by the name of Hunter Sansom. He is
(00:43):
the NKY bracket guy, and he's also a UC basketball
good luck charm because he went to a game this
year and they won. This dude is a bracketologist, and
so we had him on the air a few weeks
ago on our show on ESPN fifteen thirty, and I'm like,
I want to see if this guy is good enough
to be the AFAE bracketologist of the Moegger Show, and
overwhelmingly so the answer was yes, and so we have
(01:06):
them on our show on ESPN fifteen thirty. Because we
are closing in on the end of the regular season.
Selection Sunday is coming up a week from this Sunday,
I wanted to get Hunter on to talk about some
area college basketball teams and where he has them right
now in relation to the field of sixty eight.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
Long winded intro, Hunter, It's good to have you. Good evening.
How are you.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
I'm great, though, Thanks for having me on again.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
I appreciate it and sorry, you see, fans, I had
to cancel my trip to last week.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
I blame the I'll take full blame for the loss there.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
All right. Well, you know, let's face it, UC is
not making the tournament as an at large team, so
we're not going to focus on them, at least out
the outset. Let's begin with Xavier because I feel like
Xavier by beating Creighton, then going to Butler for yourself obviously,
because I'm looking at your projections and I feel like
for most bracketologists right right now, the Musketeers are in.
(02:03):
You've got them as a twelve seed in a first
four matchup in date. Nothings can change, obviously, they can't
lay an egg tomorrow, might have to do some work
in New York. How safe or tenuous is Xavier's position
right now?
Speaker 3 (02:16):
Extremely tenuous at this point.
Speaker 4 (02:19):
I don't see a scenario where they're not going to
be tenuous this year unless they, of course, like the
win in Madison Square Garden.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
I have them as my very last team in the tournament.
Speaker 4 (02:29):
The bracket matrix, which is a combination of about ninety
two brackets, as them as the last team in Currently.
The big thing with the Creton and Butler wins, they
took care of the resume metrics moved up. They had
been floating between fifty and fifty two, and their resume
metric average right now is forty eight point three. Why
that's important. Teams under fifty typically have a shot of
(02:52):
an at large bid, especially with good predictive metrics. Xavier
and now checks both of those boxes instead of just
one of them.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
All right, So I know this might be a hard
question to answer, but where would they what would they
have to do?
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Like they've They've got to be Providence. Providence is a
bad team.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
You're not gonna get much credit for winning that game,
but you can't afford to lose it. Let's let's assume
for a second that they do they take care of
business tomorrow. What would they have to do in New
York for Xavier fans to not be sweating bid Steelers
from around.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
The country.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
To not be sweating bid Steelers. I that's gonna be
a tough one.
Speaker 4 (03:29):
Zager's resume is not top of the line, amazing, clearly
going to get in the tournament with a one and
nine Quadrant one record. Now, assuming that they don't win
everything in Madison Square Garden, they're going to pick up
at least one more quad one win because they will
play at quad one game. So if they win one,
that gets them to two and ten, that's a lot
better than a one and nine situation. Maybe we're talking
(03:53):
about them being safe at that point. I personally don't
think they're necessarily going to be safe, unless maybe, let's
say they make it to Saturday night playing the championship,
maybe they're pretty safely in at that point.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
I asked you this the first time we had you on,
and I think it's a question worth asking again because
we're on the verge of champ week, there's already some
conference tournaments underway. It feels to me like every single
year we walk away from selection Sunday scratching our heads wondering, well,
wait a minute, this team did well in its conference tournament.
They won a couple of games, and yet it wasn't
good enough to get them even close to the NCAA tournament.
(04:28):
Do we overstate the importance of the conference tournaments as
it relates specifically to at large teams on the bubble.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
We absolutely do. That's why that question was so difficult
just now.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
Because I if they're not going to take a bad loss,
which I've mentioned before. If they take bad losses, that's
a whole different story. But they're not going to take
a bad loss in Madison Square Garden, and as long
as they beat Providence, they're not taking another bad one
to begin with. So I don't know that they're going
to move up the seed line based off of Madison
Square Garden, but they definitely can kind of stave off
some bid steelers. Bid Steelers are going to be a
(05:02):
concern though, I think either way, but overall, we're way
over value in conference tournaments.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Go ahead, let me ask you a question about the process.
When I was a kid, right, you would always hear
about how the committee looks at your last ten games,
which hasn't been something they prioritize in decades. And yet
I still hear people go, well, you know what with
their last ten games record?
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Was that was a thing like in the nineties. It's
not a thing anymore.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
What is the part of this process that the general public,
your average college basketball fans, seems to get wrong the most.
Speaker 4 (05:34):
I think it's just it's assuming that a team is
going to get in because they're hot right now. I
think you hit the nail on the head because that
was just for so long the trend. I mean, if
you look at North Carolina and Xavier this year, both
fan bases are up in arms because they're both playing well.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
They're both winning a lot, and their records look great.
Speaker 4 (05:52):
In their last ten they're not beating high quality opponents,
but teams and fan bases seem to get so enamored
with that. Between that and head to head matchups, I
think those are the two things that people get wrong
the most.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
I think the story of the year in college basketball
has been the strength of the SEC. Is that why
you still have a Kentucky team that is nationally ranked
but is in the middle of the pack and the
SEC with eight losses right now as a three seed.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
Yeah, it is between their non conference schedule.
Speaker 4 (06:24):
I mean, they beat their likes a Duke in a
non conference and then they come into the SEC and
they're picking up some good wins against SEC opponents. Of course,
they're losing some games, but it's the best conference in
the country right now. They're gonna lose, so they've got
enough kind of substance on their resume to be there
right now. That being said, I do think they're gonna
end up falling to the four line. Just I don't
(06:44):
know that they're gonna win enough to get there. Maybe
if they win them, are they stay as a three?
I just think other teams will pass them.
Speaker 1 (06:52):
What if they win the SEC tournament, which, frankly, the
strength of the league would suggest to me that's really far.
Speaker 4 (06:57):
Fetched if they're most guaranteed a three seed if they
win the SEC tournament.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
I know we just said that.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
The committee doesn't look at that super hard, but they
would be forced to kind of look at it at
that point in my opinion.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
All Right, you have you have two other area schools
as twelves playing in the first four in Dayton. One
of them is Ohio State. Give me the strengths and
weaknesses of the Buckeyees resume Ohio State.
Speaker 4 (07:23):
They again, they have the same kind of qualifiers that
Xavier does, the forty seven point seven resume average, the
thirty six metric average, But then they've also got three
Quadrant one A wins, and then they've got six Quadrant
one wins. Overall, they are six and ten in Quadrant one. Obviously,
they've gotten a ton more opportunities than other teams, but
they've capitalized a little bit more frequently.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
So I think they've done.
Speaker 4 (07:45):
Enough with those top end wins and their metrics to
get in. It's just it's hard to see them right now,
just with the way that their resume looks.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
Hunter Sansom is the NKY bracket guy, by the way,
follow him on Twitter at Bracket NK one. So let's
stay in the Big twin in the Big ten and
talk about Indiana, who you have matched up with Xavier
in Dayton. In a hypothetical first four game, Ohio State
and Indiana play tomorrow. Should we view that as an
elimination game?
Speaker 4 (08:15):
Effectively, Yes, I don't see any other way to put it.
If Indiana loses, they are I don't skip path for them.
Ohio State might have just a little bit of wiggle
room if they were to lose, but they would be
very susceptible to a bid Steeler or something like that.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
I am looking at your graphic right now on Twitter
at Brackett NKY. You came out with it at two
thirty this afternoon, and you have among your first four
out North Carolina, Boise State, Nebraska, and Texas. And this
has kind of been where Uce has resided for most
of the season. Right for most of the season, at
least for those of us who didn't start following this
(08:52):
on November fifteenth, the Bearcats have kind of been in
that first four out, next four out range for yourself
and for most people who do this, you don't even
have a next four out. So how many teams would
you have to list? Humor me here, man, how many
teams would you have to list before you got to
my beloved Bearcats.
Speaker 4 (09:11):
I honestly, I don't think they would be that far
out of that. Maybe they're fifth on the list right there.
I mean, they're not necessarily crazy far away. The issue
is there's no more opportunity for them to move up,
and they've done enough.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
To where I think they're effectively eliminated.
Speaker 4 (09:28):
Unfortunately, if I leave them on there, I'm gonna give
hope to everybody, and I try really.
Speaker 3 (09:33):
Hard to not give false hot. I don't want to
sit here and say, oh, they've got a chance.
Speaker 4 (09:37):
There are only chances to win the big tit or
a big twelve tournament at this point.
Speaker 1 (09:42):
Yeah, well, I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna assume that's not
gonna happen. All right, Just torture me. Now, where did
you have them before the debacle at Fifth Third the
other night?
Speaker 4 (09:52):
Oh, they were my third or fourth team out. I
thought they had a legitimate chance if they would have
just beaten kan to State and Oklahoma State.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Your visit to fifth Third, if it was your first
one ever? Correct, Yeah, I know that is.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
I mean, it's like it's it's it's like, you know,
coming home to an empty house and your your wife
has left you, and then she calls you to tell
you I've left you. Like it's just like just twist
the knife a little bit more. You were at that
barcat game. It was your first one ever at fifth third?
Speaker 3 (10:22):
Yes, it was, yeah, and.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
They were in that game. Did you enjoy the experience?
Speaker 3 (10:27):
I did? Overall, I thought it was good. I will
say I've been to CentOS far more.
Speaker 4 (10:34):
The setup of Sentos is a little bit more conducive
to a louder, more hostile type of environment. But the
arena at fifth third is head over heels better and
I greatly enjoyed my experience. I sat in the upper deck,
which I rarely do, thankfully, and honestly I set I
could grow too.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
It was a great view. There no complaints about the arena.
Parking was great. Definitely.
Speaker 4 (10:59):
If you're a Bearcat fan haven't been there, go you
won't regret it at all. I will be back next year,
hopefully most of the season.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
I have one more team to ask you about. I
would be remissified in the Louisville Cardinals, who have had
a terrific season. You're one of Pat Kelsey a smashing success.
If I look at your projections and I see Louisville
as a seven seed, I would imagine you'll have folks
who say, wait a minute, this second place finisher in
the ACC which goes into the final weekend with two
(11:29):
losses is only a seven seed.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
What gives with that?
Speaker 3 (11:34):
I feel for Louisville fans.
Speaker 4 (11:35):
I just I want to start with I are two
teams that I genuinely feel for this year and in
Louisville and Memphis. Louisville they are now oh to three
in Quadrant one A, which is when you're getting up
into the single digit seeds. Quadrant one A is that
top end win, the very best of the best wins,
and you're using that to kind of separate some of
these teams out. Unfortunately, Louisville's now and three. They do
(11:58):
have four Quadrant one wins and only the one loss
in Quadrant two. So overall it's a great resume and
normal years they're a five or six, but the top
half of the bracket this year is unfortunately a little heavier,
a little stronger, and Louisville is unfortunately getting punished for
the ACC just not being a good conference.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
Well, we'll see how things unfold this weekend and obviously
during champ Week, which I knew it was Championship week
and they shortened it. What I want to do on
our show on ESPN fifteen thirty is and you know,
something may happen next week and we'll get you on.
I think Xavier, obviously here locally, is the team to watch.
But what I really want to do is I want
to look at your final projections, right, and will eire
(12:37):
gonna come out on selection Sunday morning?
Speaker 3 (12:40):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (12:41):
All right, I'll.
Speaker 3 (12:42):
Actually probably the selections Monday about two o'clock.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
All right, great, perfect, about two o'clock, which there's like
one or two conference championship games still happening, but those
likely aren't going to influence the bracket. So I want
to look at your final projections. We'll take a look
at the field, and then we'll grade how they did,
how you did. And I mean, would you get mad
if we like compared yours to like a guy like Joelnardi.
Speaker 2 (13:05):
No, not at all happy to And when will and
when will you? When will you start the bracketology for
next year?
Speaker 3 (13:13):
I start bracketola in the transfer portal era.
Speaker 4 (13:16):
I used to do it right after I would throw
that out in the transfer portal era. My first bracket
comes out on October thirty, first Halloween day.
Speaker 2 (13:25):
Wow, okay, very good, Well I don't.
Speaker 4 (13:28):
I mean, there's no substance there anyways, but I don't
see a point to put it out before then, to be.
Speaker 1 (13:32):
Honest, and and will you do bracketology for the Crown
or the Nit.
Speaker 4 (13:37):
I will put something out for the Crown of the
Nit next week. I finally have learned the Crown and
kind of what we're expecting. I do fully expect Cincinnati
to be playing in Vegas. They're going to be required
to play there by their TV contract, so yeah, it
will happen. I don't know what kind of team is
going to be left if they have transfers out, those
transfers will already be gone.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
So I'm very interested about the Crown this year.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
They're gonna have to have like student tryouts maybe to
put a team on the floor in in Vegas. All Right, man,
what's been fun having you, And thank you for kind
of humoring me with my silly questions. But I do
enjoy following you, and it's been fun having you on,
and we'll do it again at least one more time
this college basketball season. Follow our guy Hunter at Bracket NKY.
(14:21):
He is the NKY bracket guy. Good to have you, man,
enjoy the weekend of games. Thanks so much, appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (14:26):
Moo, thank you,