Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Football we are.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
This is Dave Lapwork and you're listening to the Home
of the Bengals, ESPN fifteen thirty.
Speaker 3 (00:08):
Thank you lap Five minutes after four, This is ESPN
fifteen thirty alm Oegga.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
Thank you so much for joining us today.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Hopefully you're having an awesome Thursday afternoon. We reference often
on this show during both the pro and college football season,
ESPN's Football Power Index, which I've always felt is a
really good guide for you know, making wagers, just determining
(00:34):
how good or bad the.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
Team you root for might be.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
And we've talked about it often throughout the years as
it relates specifically to the Bengals, and you know, this offseason,
they're kind of a polarizing team because we can find
a lot of people who think, man, defensively, they haven't
done enough, and you can find a whole lot of
people who think, look, I'm I'm never betting against Joe Burrow.
I'm always interested in things that are a little bit
more analytical. ESPN's Football Power Index. Certainly it's that description
(01:01):
and it's actually and we talked about this a little
bit on yesterday's show, pretty bullish on the Bengals and
so I wanted to learn more from Seth Walter, who's
a ESPN sports analytics writer. I think he is the
guru of the Football Power Index. He has been kind
enough to join us in the past and gracious enough
to give us a few minutes this afternoon. Seth, I
(01:21):
appreciate the time. I enjoyed the projections. Thank you for
joining us. How are you?
Speaker 2 (01:26):
I'm great, Thanks for having me. I appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Happy football season, Happy football season. We're almost there.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
You're not allowed to do something like this without someone
like me asking you to explain not only what the
Football Power Index is, but how it's formulated during the preseason.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Yeah, of course. So the Football Power Index is are
ratings and projection system for the NFL. So it's a fork.
It's a forward looking model. We are forecasting how good
we team, how good the model things teams will be,
see how strong they are going forward, and then therefore
what that means for how they will fare probabilistically throughout
(02:07):
the season. In the preseason, the way that it's formed
is if mostly driven by the betting market, So we
are taking information from the betting market, like your seedon
win total. But then we're also marrying that with your schedule, right,
you can't just say, well, this team is eight and
a half. This team's eight and a half, so therefore
they're the same. Well, who you play matters too and that,
(02:29):
and so you've got to factor that in there to
determine exactly how good we think they are. Here's other
factors that go into it, like the difference between the
starting quarterback and the backup that can that can play
a role, some things like if you change coordinators that
can affect some variants, or if you're a quarterback, for
example as a rookie, then we might say, well, here's
(02:51):
how good we think they are. Probably not very good,
but maybe they have a wider range of outcomes than
say Joe Burrow, where we feel like, okay, we know,
we know who this guy is.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
So the preseason projections according to f PI the Bengals
seventh and the question is asked in the piece will
the Bengals make the playoffs? And the answer is probably. Now,
I'll let my audience go and read the rest. The
focus for a lot of us is on the defense.
How do you account for a new defensive coordinator?
Speaker 2 (03:21):
Yeah? Great question, So I thinks an Adie has been
maybe the team, one of the teams that's garnered the
most interesting. We released this yesterday. They are they ranked seventh.
We have them as the seventh best team in football,
which I think a lot of people are maybe maybe
outside of the snatty are saying, h wait, hang on
a second, didn't they miss the playoffs last year?
Speaker 1 (03:41):
I wanted to know why, so low. I wanted to
know why so low.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
There? Okay, there you go. That's the first time I've
gotten that prayed that way. Look, I think that the
two the this all relates to your question. I'll get
back to the defense, because I think the key thing
to remember with FBI that it is forward looking, right,
all that matters is how good we think you are
going to be this year. Their failures last year, their
(04:07):
shortcomings last year, they might help predict this year, but
it doesn't. We're not reflecting on who they were last season.
The reason why this matters so much for Cincinnati and
why they're higher than most people think, is because of
that defense. Obviously, it was a disappointment last season, but
what we've found historically through the years is that offense
(04:31):
is so much more stable year to year, so much
easier to predict. When we feel like there's a team
that has a good offense going into a season, they're
much more likely to actually be good than a defense.
It's so much harder to figure out which defenses will
be good. It's going into a year. And you mentioned
the coordinator change. I think and that plays a role
here too, where we give more uncertainty. If you've changed coordinators,
(04:56):
that can increase the degree to which we're not sure. Oh,
this is basically positive regression. The Bengals were bad last
year and we're saying, well, okay, you know, our best
bet is not that they're a good defense. But bad
doesn't mean that we think that they will necessarily be
that bad again. Everyone shrinks towards the middle when you
(05:19):
change year to year, and so that's helped the team
like Cincinnati, who we feel pretty confident will have a
good offense.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
Makes makes total sense.
Speaker 3 (05:27):
I think when you look at them on defense, you
know their strategy this offseason is pretty obvious. Right, They're
putting a lot of faith in a new defensive coordinator
and they think they can get an immediate impact from
players they drafted. How do you account for rookies when
you use FPI to forecast the season.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
Well, the chief answer is the real answer, which as well,
the betty market mostly takes care of that for us.
I think that, like with any rookie, you have to
look at it and say, especially if it's you know,
about a first like a top to early early first
round pick, there's always questions, right we go. We go
(06:08):
through this process in April and we talk about how
great these guys are, and every year you have some
players that never put it together. But you also players
who put it together, but like maybe in years two
or three, and they don't always make an impact. And
then we've other players who make an impact right away.
So like what will Shamar Stewart bee. I'm not sure
that I can answer that better than anybody else, but
(06:29):
we know that there's a range of outcome where it's
like he could be an instant impact pass rusher, or
maybe he doesn't convert a lot of past, convert a
lot of sacks, kind of like in college. So all
of that is feasible, and I think that that plays
a role in the uncertainty.
Speaker 3 (06:45):
SETH Walter is with us ESPN Sports Analytics ESPN's Football
Power Index projections are out. You can go read them
at ESPN dot com. I think one of the reasons
why some maybe sit on their hands when it comes
to this team is their recent history of starting slow.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
Now you talk about how FPI looks ahead.
Speaker 3 (07:05):
So what do I do if I'm looking ahead with
a team that has a pretty extensive track record of
stumbling out of the gate?
Speaker 2 (07:14):
Ooh, I don't know, we don't. Okay, there's nothing. I'll
be honest, there's nothing specific here that says like, uh,
you know how it like, oh, there's gonna be a
slow starting team. Let me flip this on you if
I can't. Yeah, let's say. Let's say it's a fact
that Cincinnati is going to be a slow starting team.
Would you rather than play easy games early or hard
(07:35):
games early? In that case?
Speaker 3 (07:37):
You know, they've It's funny they haven't lost a great
teams early, you know. I mean they lost to Kansas
City week two last year, but they lost them home
to the New England Patriots the first game of the season.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
They were awful. So there is a part of.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Me when the schedule came out, they get Cleveland week one,
Jacksonville week two, and I go, you know, maybe it
would be to their benefit to have like a real tough,
tough test, did like play Baltimore week one, that sort
of thing, right, And and I don't know, maybe and
this is not very analytic, but you know, maybe that
causes them to take the preseason a little bit more
(08:10):
seriously and they're focused a little bit more.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
I'm tired of seeing them start ohing two and I
think you know again, it's it's it's not very statistically base,
but people will say, well, god, you know what, the
Bengals are always oh and two. Why should I assume
that they're going to get off to a better start,
And those oh and two starts ultimately have come back
to haunt them each of the last two years.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
No, I'm kind of with you. I mean, honestly this
like I'm I'm generally sort of skeptical of the idea
that like they have to that you know, just a
lot of analytics who haven't say, splits happen, right, which
is like things just happen, and there's not always a reason,
like enough stuff happens, there's going to be patterns, and
so I'm generally skeptical of the idea to some degree.
(08:50):
That it's like, oh, the Bengals under Zach keilor they
must start slow. But there's definitely possible that it is.
And so if they were true, I'm with you, I'd
want to start on a more difficult stretch they if
they start go into this year Levan and Jacksonville. That is, Uh,
that a real tough.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
Time, all right.
Speaker 3 (09:10):
One more so, Football Power Index likes Balts more and
more than Cincinnati to win the AFC North.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
That makes sense.
Speaker 3 (09:17):
Uh, what does FPI do with the Steelers given the
fact that it's I guess seems likely that Aaron Rodgers
is going to be the quarterback, but he's not officially
a Pittsburgh Steeler.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Yeah, it's it's to some degree kind of compromising here.
It is going to mostly reflect Rogers. So that's because
the betting market portion will probably I think thinks that
Rogers will likely be there. If Rogers does sign, I
would imagine that Pittsburgh's rating will go up because it's
(09:49):
not one hundred percent that he's going there at this moment.
So I think that will improve the betting market. And
then that would you know, right now it's gonna that
would cause a larger gap between what we would team
them to have a starting quarterback and backup quarterback. So
maybe their upside goes up a little bit. I would
not expect, still think be shocked if Cincinnati will still
(10:16):
be the second We'll still be the second Bets team
in the AFC North, like with a Rogers signing. I
guess I'll put it that way. Yeah, going to change,
all right?
Speaker 3 (10:24):
Good stuff. I know we asked you on somewhat short notice.
I really enjoy the work you do and we love
having you. Cannot thank you enough. I appreciate you doing
this man. Thanks so much.
Speaker 2 (10:35):
Now, thanks for having me. Always have your dog.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Football, Love having you.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Seth Walter Go Read ESPN's FPI preseason projections now at
espn dot com. Bullish on the Bengals, Bullish on the defense.
There is something about regression to the mean, and we
talked about that often as it relates to teams, you know,
kind of coming back to the pack, regressing to the middle. Uh,
if they had a really good year or won a
(10:59):
bunch of clob those games.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
The reverse is often true.
Speaker 3 (11:02):
We're a team that is awful in one area year
to year, regression to the mean, they just automatically come
closer to the middle of the pack. And I think
most of us would agree that if the Bengals have
a middle of the pack defense, they're at least going
to be a playoff team. Are they a championship contender?
Maybe a different story. I I'll make it far less scientific.
(11:27):
A year ago at this time, are you going into
training camp? My basic take was, if Joe Burrow plays
all the games that matter, which last year for the
Bengals was seventeen. If he plays all the games that matter,
I could not imagine a world where they miss the playoffs,
because that's the bar for that has never been lower.
(11:48):
We have seven playoff teams per conference. Well, it turns
out I was dead wrong. I ain't gonna be wrong
in back to back years.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
Again.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
It may sneak in and.
Speaker 3 (11:58):
Be the seventh seed and have to go on the
road and play the two and get destroyed at whatever.
If Joe Burrow plays every game that counts in the
regular season, hey, I expect him to have an MVP
caliber season like he did last year.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
Be they're a playoff team.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
I worry like hell about the defense, and you know
I need to see it before I believe with Al
Golden Are they gonna keep Joe upright? What's gonna happen
with Trey's Shamar Stewart ever gonna come to camp like
I get it? Joe plays seventeen, He's gonna play in eighteenth.
Simple as that was dead wrong on that last year,
(12:42):
I ain't gonna be wrong at consecutive years. Uh eighteen
minutes after four o'clock five point three seven four nine,
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Speaker 1 (12:49):
UH one.
Speaker 3 (12:50):
More guest added this hour, Miguel Gaiardo MLS season pass,
Apple TV FC Cincinnati a tough draw at home last night,
and we'll go to Knoxville in one hour to preview
the NCAA tournament. Both the Bearcats and the RedHawks are there.
Scott Springer from The Inquirer will join us on ESPN
fifteen thirty Cincinnati Sports.
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