May 5, 2025 • 21 mins
Jeff Carr is the host of the Locked on Reds Podcast
He joined us to discuss the state of the Reds, on ESPN1530.
Podcasts of The Mo Egger Radio Show are a service of Longnecks Sports Grill.
Listen to the show live weekday afternoons 3:00 - 6:00 on ESPN1530.
Listen Live: ESPN1530.com/listen
Get more: https://linktr.ee/MoEgger
Follow on X: @MoEgger
Instagram too: @MoEgger
He joined us to discuss the state of the Reds, on ESPN1530.
Podcasts of The Mo Egger Radio Show are a service of Longnecks Sports Grill.
Listen to the show live weekday afternoons 3:00 - 6:00 on ESPN1530.
Listen Live: ESPN1530.com/listen
Get more: https://linktr.ee/MoEgger
Follow on X: @MoEgger
Instagram too: @MoEgger
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now your chance to win one thousand dollars. Enter this
nationwide keyword on our website. Money, that's money. Enter it now,
Enter right now.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
There you go, four h four ESPN fifteen thirty on
ball Leggor. I hope you're having a horrific It's Monday afternoon,
Brenda min A Jones on baseball coming up in just
about forty five minutes, looking forward to that. Most of
the time this year it's been about baseball. We're like
five six weeks, in seven weeks in whatever it is.
(00:34):
I feel like most days it's been about baseball, which
is which is nice. Let's see more Bengal stuff to
get to as well. And is you see the one
hundred and third best team in college football in twenty
twenty five? Apparently USA Today thinks the answer is yes,
We'll get to that and more. Your phone calls coming
(00:55):
up here in justin. But I was lucky enough to
be a guest of Jeff Carr's on the Locked On
Reds podcast a few weeks ago and enjoyed that conversation
and it would post it on the internet and stuff,
and it was really good, and I mean I was okay,
Jeff was good and during the course of that conversation,
I remember how much I like talking about baseball with
(01:16):
with Jeff, host of the Lockdown Reds podcast, and so
so we're having them on the day and probably need
to have them all more often. How's it going. I
like talking base both, you too. I wish we were
talking about a better team. I'm annoyed, and I maybe
I shouldn't be right, but I'm annoyed that over the
last couple of weeks they've lost these series to Washington
(01:39):
and Florida, had just a series split with the Saint
Louis Cardinals. And every time you think that, you know what,
maybe they're about to get going, they don't go yet.
They are over five hundred, they've recovered from the three
and seven start, they have really good starting pitching.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Should I be as annoyed as I am?
Speaker 4 (02:00):
I think it's just because it's early and we want
them to qualify for the playoffs already.
Speaker 5 (02:05):
Because I'm with you.
Speaker 4 (02:06):
I think that the perfect encapsulation of their performance so
far is just that we want them to go more like.
We want them to be more over five hundred. We
want them to be in first place in the division
and and all this other stuff because it feels like
whenever the Cubs lose, the Reds lose, and whenever the
Reds win, the Cubs win, so they.
Speaker 5 (02:25):
Can't make up that ground. But I'm with you.
Speaker 4 (02:28):
I feel like like even I think the perfect microcosm
of this is Elie de la Cruz because I think
if we if we were to just talk about what
we have seen the eye test and what we what
we have watched on the field, without looking at the numbers,
we would say, yeah, he's fine, but I would like him.
Speaker 5 (02:45):
To be better.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
But when you look at the numbers, he's the best
player on the team as far as position players and
wins above replacement our concerned, and the stats say that
he's having a really good year, but it's like I
still want to see more. And that's how I feel
about the whole team.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
It's funny because when I think of Ellie, when I
think of Eli two years ago, I don't think of statistics.
I think of moments that made me go wow. When
I think of him last year, I know the statistics
were better, but I think of moments that made me
go wow. Now I see numbers that are fine, I
don't know that I've had that wow moment yet, aside
from maybe that that game where he had the ball
off the boat in center field, I.
Speaker 5 (03:23):
Would agree, and you haven't.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
You've seen like some some fun moments in the field
with the glove and he had the home run that
was the foul ball that Tommy Thrall made me think
was a home run yesterday. But I think that ultimately
that's kind of been his season so far, is that
it feels like he has a chance to make us
go wow, but instead he just doesn't make us go hmm.
(03:48):
And he does the fine thing. We haven't seen the
superhero thing yet.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Yeah, of on the list of things that annoy me
quite frankly as not Ellie Dela Cruz. I wish there
was more, right, I wish there was more, and I
think we all believe there will be more. Matt McClain,
What do I do with him? What should the Reds
do with him? Because I fully believe that Matt mcclan
is a foundational piece of this franchise. I certainly understand
(04:17):
the dude has not yet played in one hundred and
thirty big league games, so he deserves a chance. He's
got to establish health hopefully he does that. At the
same time, watching him at the plate has often been painful.
He's been a strikeout machine, and so I'm trying to
find the correct balance between having patients with a guy
who I think has a chance to really help his
team and wanting the Reds to put the best nine
(04:39):
guys out there. Matt McClain right now doesn't look like
he's one of the best nine players.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
What should I do with this?
Speaker 4 (04:45):
Let me add to your frustration because you're worried about
the strikeout rate. He has hits in five of his
last seven games, and it feels like he's starting starting
a breakthrough. He hasn't broken through, definitely not yet, because
there's there's not a whole lot of impact with those heads.
They've all been singles. But also he's been a really
good glove. I mean, to this point, he's been the
(05:07):
best fielder on the team as far ass above average
and defensive runs saved. Y're concerned, and so when you
look at his performance in the field, it's hard to
take him off the field. So do you move him
down in the lineup? That's a worthy conversation at the moment,
because I definitely would like to see some better at bats.
The only thing is when you move him down the lineup,
he gets less at bats to prove that. And I
(05:27):
think that he's a guy that coming up here. Maybe
this week we could see that breakout happen, because he's
still hitting the ball hard and he's still making good
quality of contact. It's just they've been finding gloves and
not grass. And then he has been swinging and missing
more than he did in his rookie season. And albeit
he's still struck out a little over thirty percent of
(05:49):
the time in his rookie season, so I don't necessarily
know that he is striking out exponentially more than he
will whenever things are going right. It's just he is
been super unlucky with the balls that he has put
in play so far this year.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
Uh noelve, Marte got called up and was hitting like
a man possessed. The production has since slowed. I still
want him out there every single day at third base.
I think most would agree, how about you.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
Absolutely. I think it's interesting they already moved him up
into the cleanup spot. I thought that was a little premature,
But I love everything that he's been doing so far
because he is such a surprise. I mean, we saw
him in the Dominican Winner League. Those stats were horrible.
We saw him in spring training, those stats were horrible,
and obviously what he did on the field last season,
those stats were horrible. There's been nothing that points to
(06:42):
this kind of a breakout that we've seen, and yet
what we have seen has been fantastic, great contact, great
quality of contact, and pretty good fielding. We're not seeing
the glaring mistakes that he made on a regular basis
last year, and I think that's the biggest thing for me,
is that he has been consistent. Where we want guys
on this team to get more consistent. I feel like
(07:04):
what we have seen from him is mostly sustainable, although
I don't expect them to hit over three hundred, but
I do expect the plate discipline to be there all year,
which is going to raise his batting average in and
of itself, raises on base percentage, and raises overall value
to this team. But I do think that there's something
to buy in here with because we've seen the tiny
sample size in twenty twenty three that you really can't
(07:26):
bet on. I know we've seen this tiny sample size
so far in twenty twenty five that I don't know
that you or I are betting on, but we're happy about.
But I think that what he has shown so far
this year compared to what we've seen in the past,
is growth in his plate discipline, and I can buy that.
I can buy that from any player if they're good
with their pitch recognition, and that's where he seems to be.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Jeff Carr locked on Red's podcast, part of the Locked
In Podcast Network.
Speaker 3 (07:54):
Do re Signs and Will Benson deserve another look up here?
Speaker 5 (07:59):
I'd like to give recon Finds another look.
Speaker 4 (08:02):
Will Benson's kind of tough for me, just because I
feel like we've seen so much of him at the.
Speaker 5 (08:06):
Major league level.
Speaker 4 (08:08):
I would like to see him get more than one
more game the rest.
Speaker 5 (08:11):
Of the year.
Speaker 4 (08:12):
I mean, he got one game and he struck out
four times. It's that's kind of tough. I don't think
that that means that we know anything more than what
we already.
Speaker 5 (08:19):
Knew about him.
Speaker 4 (08:20):
But I also think that there's so much opportunity in
this outfield. I mean, Blake Donn doesn't look like anybody
that's going to be holding a roster spot down from
anybody else. Tyler Callahan. I don't expect to keep anybody
else off the roster because he's up here. And Jake
Frayley is interesting because we were talking about this on
today's live show, where he's actually sixth as far as
(08:42):
position players are concerned in war on this team, which
might be more of a comment about the position player's
overall value for the Reds than it is about Jake Frayley.
But I don't feel like Jake Frayley is getting much better,
and he sort of seems like the guy that you
need to improve, Like, sure, are you mad that he's here? No,
(09:02):
but you could do better, I think. And I don't
necessarily know that Reese Hines is that answer, but I
would love to see him get more of a run
amount of playing time last season, But I still don't
know that he will ever be consistent enough to be
called upon every day.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
Is Amelia Pegan really the ninth inning guy for a
playoff team?
Speaker 4 (09:27):
This version of Amelia Pegan is he is striking out.
Speaker 6 (09:31):
He has a strike at the walk ratio of five
point sixty seven strikeouts per walk, and I don't know
that that's going to get much worse because he was
really good at keeping guys off of the bases on
balls last year as well.
Speaker 4 (09:44):
It's all about can he stay healthy and can he
continue this high strikeout rate? And I think the answer
to the strikeout.
Speaker 5 (09:51):
Rate is yes. The health will be the big question
for me.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
But yeah, so far this season, everything that he has
done does not seem fluky to me. I mean, he
has a lip of point five. Half of a guy
is getting on per any against him.
Speaker 5 (10:06):
So I think that for right now, I'm buying this.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
And if it's October and the Reds are facing Shoheo Tani,
I want emiliap gun on the play on the mound
in the ninth.
Speaker 3 (10:18):
To do the Reds have a good bullpen.
Speaker 5 (10:24):
I think they have a solid bullpen.
Speaker 4 (10:27):
Because I think Graham Ashcraft has more growing pains to
go through and we saw a few of those on Sunday,
because I mean, he fills up the strike zone, but
what does that mean whenever he gets it, gets a
lineup that understands.
Speaker 5 (10:40):
That that scouting report on him.
Speaker 4 (10:42):
Tony Santyon sort of seems like he has just one
out of every five days he just doesn't have it
and can't find his own and that's kind of tough
because you're gonna need him more than five times in
a playoff run. I think that they're solid and they're
one really good arm, like if they can make a
trade or something like that.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
Same with the lineup.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
It feels like they're one trade away in the lineup
and one trade away in the bullpen from.
Speaker 5 (11:09):
Being like good.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
So I feel the same way about the bullpen.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
I think the problem with that for me is they're
probably not gonna make a trade until close to the deadline,
and then which contending team doesn't need relief help?
Speaker 5 (11:23):
Right right?
Speaker 4 (11:23):
Everybody does, and it's it's all gonna be about how
you can pounce on it. First, I expected more out
of Taylor Rodgers, and I get it. He's got a
one point five v R and that's kind of fun.
But he doesn't strike anybody out and he walks a
lot of people. I don't know that that one point
five VR is sustainable for him, and so I think
that pretty soon that might catch up to him. But
(11:44):
he is a guy that I expected to be. If
it wasn't Alexis Dz, it was gonna be Taylor Rodgers
in the night Tenny, and I don't want to see
that right now. And then Scott Barlow is also a
guy who I kind of felt like was a really
good option and he's growing into that, but he didn't
have a great start to the season either. And it
feels like there's two halves to this bullpen. There's an
(12:05):
A squad and a B squad, and there's a clear
line as to who that is. But even the A
squad definitely has a tendency to not be as reliable
as you want them to be. That's where I think
that they're solid. They have depth, they just don't have
enough of the top end guys. And Emilio Pagan, like
if you put him up in the top ten closers
of baseball, I don't know that he's a top ten closer,
(12:27):
but he's I'm okay with him right now.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
Flip it back to the position players. The Reds have
the worst performing first base combination in the National League
according to wins above replacement. Obviously, Cees is not healthy
in the short term. How do they rectify that in
the long term? How do they rectify that long term
is the harder question to me. I think short term
is just steer until he's ready to play in the outfield,
(12:53):
and then you kind of consider if you want to
move one of the catchers out to first base. I
don't know that that's a good idea with Hyer Stephenson
because we've already seen that and I don't know that
that gets much better for him.
Speaker 5 (13:06):
And then.
Speaker 4 (13:07):
Do you I think the short term answer is where
do you think Jammer Candelario is once he gets back,
because I think that he's he's on the il temporarily,
He's gonna be back soon. I don't love it though,
because it feels like we already know what we know
about him and his good self is a two point
(13:30):
fifty hitter, right, the.
Speaker 3 (13:31):
Ceiling is not very high.
Speaker 4 (13:33):
Yeah, yeah, so I think I think ultimately short term,
Spencer Steer is the answer. Long term, man, that's because
I don't know that Cees can ever stay healthy now.
Speaker 5 (13:45):
He finds injuries.
Speaker 4 (13:48):
Yeah, it's his wrist, it's his back, it's his leg,
it's his you know whatever. And and when he's in
the and he's so all or nothing, it's hard for
me to really be sold on that. I think I
think it's very likely that they are still looking for
a first basement this offseason.
Speaker 5 (14:08):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
The Cees thing to me, the end of the twenty
twenty three season feels longer ago for him than it
does for some of these other.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
Guys, even Noovi Marte yeaheah, sure, yeah, go ahead, yeah. Now,
I just think that Ces is one of those guys
that is going to always be stuck in the scouting
report and makes me wonder if he's a quadruple A player,
just like Will Benson, and just like Reese Hines and
Blake Dunn and Tyler Callahan and maybe Jake.
Speaker 5 (14:38):
Freley as well.
Speaker 4 (14:39):
Like it seems like there are so many of these
guys that you could make a a better argument that
they're a quadruple A player than they are a major
league player.
Speaker 2 (14:46):
Well, there are a lot of the names you just mentioned.
I try to PLoP them into the middle of and
people are going to say this isn't fair. But I
try to PLoP him into the middle of the Chicago
Cubs lineup, and I don't see a role for him there.
Speaker 3 (14:58):
And then you could be you could you could start.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
To talk about the Dodgers and Madson, but I just
I make it about the team they're chasing down in
the NL Central and there are there are a lot
of guys who get regular playing time here or who
are on the team with the idea that they get
regular playing time once healthy that I look at and go,
I'm not sure that guy's getting regular playing time for
the Chicago Cubs.
Speaker 4 (15:19):
And I think with the Reds Cubs argument as well,
like we always like to make the argument, a good
pitching staff beats a good lineup, But the issue is
if the Reds pitching staff isn't good on a given day,
I don't know that their lineup is good enough to
catch up, and we've seen them score a decent bit
so far this season. It's kind of overloaded by that
(15:39):
one game in Baltimore. But I think too that the
lineup's going to be good enough when the pitching is great,
and the question is when the pitching is just good
enough or even maybe average, is the lineup good enough
because the pitching was good enough on Sunday. I still
even think with the with the bullpen giving up a
couple of runs, you should expect to in a game
(16:00):
where you only give up four runs. But this lineup
is so inconsistent. Albeit it has what feels like a
good ceiling, but it still seems like that floor is
super low too.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
Yeah, It's what annoys me about this team is the
starting pitching is, you know, number one in baseball, I
think in whip you know, near the top.
Speaker 3 (16:18):
Of the sport, upper fourth of the sport.
Speaker 2 (16:20):
In a lot of different metrics, they're a number one
in quality start percentage, which you can do whatever you
want with that. Like, you know, I know, Niico Lodolo
on Saturday wasn't great, but Nick Martinez was good enough yesterday. Obviously,
Hunter Green was awesome on Friday. I just I'm frustrated
that I feel like they're gonna waste the sort of
starting pitching that year to year to year is really
(16:42):
hard to replicate.
Speaker 4 (16:44):
And I think that the biggest, biggest source of frustration
with this team, for you and for me and for
most folks that watch this team day in and day out,
is that we don't know what we don't know about them,
and that just means we fall back on.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
What we know about red teams of years past. Yes,
and I hate doing that.
Speaker 4 (17:03):
What we feel this way in May, we feel this
way in July, and then ultimately they missed the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
Yeah, I guess for me and I started my show
by talking about this. It just it constantly feels like
we're talking ourselves into, Hey, they're about to take off,
which after that Baltimore series, I harped on this, like,
these next two weeks, win these series, you should sweep Colorado,
who's terrible. Go to Miami and win two out of three,
Get three out of four from Saint Louis, get two
(17:32):
out of three from Washington. The fact that they didn't
obviously does not doom their season. Nobody would say that
on May fifth. But I just feel like I feel
like we keep talking ourselves into how the most recent
missed opportunity is one that they can make up for.
Speaker 3 (17:49):
And they never do. And that might not be fair.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
To this team because I'm I'm folding them into conversations
about so many of their predecessors. But I just I
walked away from the game yesterday into that thinking, all right,
get this one and Martinez pitched, well, get this one
winning homestand you you can at least cling to that.
Go to Atlanta two above five hundred, you know, like
it just it felt like such a missed opportunities last
(18:15):
two weeks, and during this stretch they've gotten you know
representatives starting pitching in many cases better than that, and
yet they're still offensively spinning their tires and they're not
making up ground, and they're still flirting with five hundred,
and they're still an eighty three win team based on pace.
Was what I thought they were going to be before
the season started, and I'm frustrated.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Can you hear it in my voice, Jeff, I.
Speaker 5 (18:38):
Can feel it.
Speaker 4 (18:39):
I can feel it to the phone, and I'm with
you because I think that right now where they are
is so hard to evaluate because of their schedule, where
they're going to be in six weeks, I think we
will be able to we will know what we know
about this team because they are playing a probably the
toughest part of their schedule, and then they're going to
(18:59):
go into seven games before the All Star Break against
Colorado and Miami. That if they're if they're in the
All Star break and they're looking at is maybe six
games above five hundred, I'm feeling really good about their
chances to make the playoffs. But if they are hovering
around five hundred, maybe a couple of games under five hundred,
I don't think they make the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
So for you, it's all about that stretch right before
the break when they played two awful teams both those series.
Speaker 4 (19:22):
Here, Well, it's and leading up to that, like do
is the serie is?
Speaker 5 (19:28):
The is?
Speaker 4 (19:29):
The is the group of games that they're about to
play that starts with Atlanta and it finishes with that
home stand of like the Yankees and the Padres, Like
does that sink them? Because if they can't get through
that close to five hundred, I don't think they make
the playoffs?
Speaker 3 (19:45):
Yeah, I it was for me.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
I'm I'm gonna put a lot of weight in the
six games they have against the Cubs here at the
end of the month, three here, then three then yeah, right,
like I'm I make a dent head to head against
the team that right now feels like the one to
beat in the National League Central all apologies to the
Milwaukee Brewers, Like there, you know, make your statement if
you will, but also like make your move, make your
(20:10):
move against the team you're chasing, and then you come
out of that. You know, we always talk about where
teams are. Memorial Day gives us an idea of you know,
where they're going to finish. I put a lot of
weight on those two series, but I just I feel
so much better.
Speaker 3 (20:26):
Have they taken care of business against teams that Franklin
aren't that great?
Speaker 4 (20:29):
And here we are now, and you add those three
against Milwaukee after those six against Chicago, and you've got
twelve games.
Speaker 5 (20:36):
That you really really need to win.
Speaker 3 (20:38):
You're right about that, all right?
Speaker 5 (20:39):
Man?
Speaker 2 (20:40):
It had been way too long. I can't thank you
enough for doing this. We'll do it against Sue Man.
Thanks so much.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
Absolutely, go d That's our guy.
Speaker 2 (20:46):
Jeff Carr locked on Red's podcast We Are Way Late
twenty four after four ESPN fifteen thirty Cincinnati Sports.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
Station Cincinnati's ESPN fifteen thirty.
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Speaker 2 (00:11):
There you go, four h four ESPN fifteen thirty on
ball Leggor. I hope you're having a horrific It's Monday afternoon,
Brenda min A Jones on baseball coming up in just
about forty five minutes, looking forward to that. Most of
the time this year it's been about baseball. We're like
five six weeks, in seven weeks in whatever it is.
(00:34):
I feel like most days it's been about baseball, which
is which is nice. Let's see more Bengal stuff to
get to as well. And is you see the one
hundred and third best team in college football in twenty
twenty five? Apparently USA Today thinks the answer is yes,
We'll get to that and more. Your phone calls coming
(00:55):
up here in justin. But I was lucky enough to
be a guest of Jeff Carr's on the Locked On
Reds podcast a few weeks ago and enjoyed that conversation
and it would post it on the internet and stuff,
and it was really good, and I mean I was okay,
Jeff was good and during the course of that conversation,
I remember how much I like talking about baseball with
(01:16):
with Jeff, host of the Lockdown Reds podcast, and so
so we're having them on the day and probably need
to have them all more often. How's it going. I
like talking base both, you too. I wish we were
talking about a better team. I'm annoyed, and I maybe
I shouldn't be right, but I'm annoyed that over the
last couple of weeks they've lost these series to Washington
(01:39):
and Florida, had just a series split with the Saint
Louis Cardinals. And every time you think that, you know what,
maybe they're about to get going, they don't go yet.
They are over five hundred, they've recovered from the three
and seven start, they have really good starting pitching.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Should I be as annoyed as I am?
Speaker 4 (02:00):
I think it's just because it's early and we want
them to qualify for the playoffs already.
Speaker 5 (02:05):
Because I'm with you.
Speaker 4 (02:06):
I think that the perfect encapsulation of their performance so
far is just that we want them to go more like.
We want them to be more over five hundred. We
want them to be in first place in the division
and and all this other stuff because it feels like
whenever the Cubs lose, the Reds lose, and whenever the
Reds win, the Cubs win, so they.
Speaker 5 (02:25):
Can't make up that ground. But I'm with you.
Speaker 4 (02:28):
I feel like like even I think the perfect microcosm
of this is Elie de la Cruz because I think
if we if we were to just talk about what
we have seen the eye test and what we what
we have watched on the field, without looking at the numbers,
we would say, yeah, he's fine, but I would like him.
Speaker 5 (02:45):
To be better.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
But when you look at the numbers, he's the best
player on the team as far as position players and
wins above replacement our concerned, and the stats say that
he's having a really good year, but it's like I
still want to see more. And that's how I feel
about the whole team.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
It's funny because when I think of Ellie, when I
think of Eli two years ago, I don't think of statistics.
I think of moments that made me go wow. When
I think of him last year, I know the statistics
were better, but I think of moments that made me
go wow. Now I see numbers that are fine, I
don't know that I've had that wow moment yet, aside
from maybe that that game where he had the ball
off the boat in center field, I.
Speaker 5 (03:23):
Would agree, and you haven't.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
You've seen like some some fun moments in the field
with the glove and he had the home run that
was the foul ball that Tommy Thrall made me think
was a home run yesterday. But I think that ultimately
that's kind of been his season so far, is that
it feels like he has a chance to make us
go wow, but instead he just doesn't make us go hmm.
(03:48):
And he does the fine thing. We haven't seen the
superhero thing yet.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Yeah, of on the list of things that annoy me
quite frankly as not Ellie Dela Cruz. I wish there
was more, right, I wish there was more, and I
think we all believe there will be more. Matt McClain,
What do I do with him? What should the Reds
do with him? Because I fully believe that Matt mcclan
is a foundational piece of this franchise. I certainly understand
(04:17):
the dude has not yet played in one hundred and
thirty big league games, so he deserves a chance. He's
got to establish health hopefully he does that. At the
same time, watching him at the plate has often been painful.
He's been a strikeout machine, and so I'm trying to
find the correct balance between having patients with a guy
who I think has a chance to really help his
team and wanting the Reds to put the best nine
(04:39):
guys out there. Matt McClain right now doesn't look like
he's one of the best nine players.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
What should I do with this?
Speaker 4 (04:45):
Let me add to your frustration because you're worried about
the strikeout rate. He has hits in five of his
last seven games, and it feels like he's starting starting
a breakthrough. He hasn't broken through, definitely not yet, because
there's there's not a whole lot of impact with those heads.
They've all been singles. But also he's been a really
good glove. I mean, to this point, he's been the
(05:07):
best fielder on the team as far ass above average
and defensive runs saved. Y're concerned, and so when you
look at his performance in the field, it's hard to
take him off the field. So do you move him
down in the lineup? That's a worthy conversation at the moment,
because I definitely would like to see some better at bats.
The only thing is when you move him down the lineup,
he gets less at bats to prove that. And I
(05:27):
think that he's a guy that coming up here. Maybe
this week we could see that breakout happen, because he's
still hitting the ball hard and he's still making good
quality of contact. It's just they've been finding gloves and
not grass. And then he has been swinging and missing
more than he did in his rookie season. And albeit
he's still struck out a little over thirty percent of
(05:49):
the time in his rookie season, so I don't necessarily
know that he is striking out exponentially more than he
will whenever things are going right. It's just he is
been super unlucky with the balls that he has put
in play so far this year.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
Uh noelve, Marte got called up and was hitting like
a man possessed. The production has since slowed. I still
want him out there every single day at third base.
I think most would agree, how about you.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
Absolutely. I think it's interesting they already moved him up
into the cleanup spot. I thought that was a little premature,
But I love everything that he's been doing so far
because he is such a surprise. I mean, we saw
him in the Dominican Winner League. Those stats were horrible.
We saw him in spring training, those stats were horrible,
and obviously what he did on the field last season,
those stats were horrible. There's been nothing that points to
(06:42):
this kind of a breakout that we've seen, and yet
what we have seen has been fantastic, great contact, great
quality of contact, and pretty good fielding. We're not seeing
the glaring mistakes that he made on a regular basis
last year, and I think that's the biggest thing for me,
is that he has been consistent. Where we want guys
on this team to get more consistent. I feel like
(07:04):
what we have seen from him is mostly sustainable, although
I don't expect them to hit over three hundred, but
I do expect the plate discipline to be there all year,
which is going to raise his batting average in and
of itself, raises on base percentage, and raises overall value
to this team. But I do think that there's something
to buy in here with because we've seen the tiny
sample size in twenty twenty three that you really can't
(07:26):
bet on. I know we've seen this tiny sample size
so far in twenty twenty five that I don't know
that you or I are betting on, but we're happy about.
But I think that what he has shown so far
this year compared to what we've seen in the past,
is growth in his plate discipline, and I can buy that.
I can buy that from any player if they're good
with their pitch recognition, and that's where he seems to be.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Jeff Carr locked on Red's podcast, part of the Locked
In Podcast Network.
Speaker 3 (07:54):
Do re Signs and Will Benson deserve another look up here?
Speaker 5 (07:59):
I'd like to give recon Finds another look.
Speaker 4 (08:02):
Will Benson's kind of tough for me, just because I
feel like we've seen so much of him at the.
Speaker 5 (08:06):
Major league level.
Speaker 4 (08:08):
I would like to see him get more than one
more game the rest.
Speaker 5 (08:11):
Of the year.
Speaker 4 (08:12):
I mean, he got one game and he struck out
four times. It's that's kind of tough. I don't think
that that means that we know anything more than what
we already.
Speaker 5 (08:19):
Knew about him.
Speaker 4 (08:20):
But I also think that there's so much opportunity in
this outfield. I mean, Blake Donn doesn't look like anybody
that's going to be holding a roster spot down from
anybody else. Tyler Callahan. I don't expect to keep anybody
else off the roster because he's up here. And Jake
Frayley is interesting because we were talking about this on
today's live show, where he's actually sixth as far as
(08:42):
position players are concerned in war on this team, which
might be more of a comment about the position player's
overall value for the Reds than it is about Jake Frayley.
But I don't feel like Jake Frayley is getting much better,
and he sort of seems like the guy that you
need to improve, Like, sure, are you mad that he's here? No,
(09:02):
but you could do better, I think. And I don't
necessarily know that Reese Hines is that answer, but I
would love to see him get more of a run
amount of playing time last season, But I still don't
know that he will ever be consistent enough to be
called upon every day.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
Is Amelia Pegan really the ninth inning guy for a
playoff team?
Speaker 4 (09:27):
This version of Amelia Pegan is he is striking out.
Speaker 6 (09:31):
He has a strike at the walk ratio of five
point sixty seven strikeouts per walk, and I don't know
that that's going to get much worse because he was
really good at keeping guys off of the bases on
balls last year as well.
Speaker 4 (09:44):
It's all about can he stay healthy and can he
continue this high strikeout rate? And I think the answer
to the strikeout.
Speaker 5 (09:51):
Rate is yes. The health will be the big question
for me.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
But yeah, so far this season, everything that he has
done does not seem fluky to me. I mean, he
has a lip of point five. Half of a guy
is getting on per any against him.
Speaker 5 (10:06):
So I think that for right now, I'm buying this.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
And if it's October and the Reds are facing Shoheo Tani,
I want emiliap gun on the play on the mound
in the ninth.
Speaker 3 (10:18):
To do the Reds have a good bullpen.
Speaker 5 (10:24):
I think they have a solid bullpen.
Speaker 4 (10:27):
Because I think Graham Ashcraft has more growing pains to
go through and we saw a few of those on Sunday,
because I mean, he fills up the strike zone, but
what does that mean whenever he gets it, gets a
lineup that understands.
Speaker 5 (10:40):
That that scouting report on him.
Speaker 4 (10:42):
Tony Santyon sort of seems like he has just one
out of every five days he just doesn't have it
and can't find his own and that's kind of tough
because you're gonna need him more than five times in
a playoff run. I think that they're solid and they're
one really good arm, like if they can make a
trade or something like that.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
Same with the lineup.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
It feels like they're one trade away in the lineup
and one trade away in the bullpen from.
Speaker 5 (11:09):
Being like good.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
So I feel the same way about the bullpen.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
I think the problem with that for me is they're
probably not gonna make a trade until close to the deadline,
and then which contending team doesn't need relief help?
Speaker 5 (11:23):
Right right?
Speaker 4 (11:23):
Everybody does, and it's it's all gonna be about how
you can pounce on it. First, I expected more out
of Taylor Rodgers, and I get it. He's got a
one point five v R and that's kind of fun.
But he doesn't strike anybody out and he walks a
lot of people. I don't know that that one point
five VR is sustainable for him, and so I think
that pretty soon that might catch up to him. But
(11:44):
he is a guy that I expected to be. If
it wasn't Alexis Dz, it was gonna be Taylor Rodgers
in the night Tenny, and I don't want to see
that right now. And then Scott Barlow is also a
guy who I kind of felt like was a really
good option and he's growing into that, but he didn't
have a great start to the season either. And it
feels like there's two halves to this bullpen. There's an
(12:05):
A squad and a B squad, and there's a clear
line as to who that is. But even the A
squad definitely has a tendency to not be as reliable
as you want them to be. That's where I think
that they're solid. They have depth, they just don't have
enough of the top end guys. And Emilio Pagan, like
if you put him up in the top ten closers
of baseball, I don't know that he's a top ten closer,
(12:27):
but he's I'm okay with him right now.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
Flip it back to the position players. The Reds have
the worst performing first base combination in the National League
according to wins above replacement. Obviously, Cees is not healthy
in the short term. How do they rectify that in
the long term? How do they rectify that long term
is the harder question to me. I think short term
is just steer until he's ready to play in the outfield,
(12:53):
and then you kind of consider if you want to
move one of the catchers out to first base. I
don't know that that's a good idea with Hyer Stephenson
because we've already seen that and I don't know that
that gets much better for him.
Speaker 5 (13:06):
And then.
Speaker 4 (13:07):
Do you I think the short term answer is where
do you think Jammer Candelario is once he gets back,
because I think that he's he's on the il temporarily,
He's gonna be back soon. I don't love it though,
because it feels like we already know what we know
about him and his good self is a two point
(13:30):
fifty hitter, right, the.
Speaker 3 (13:31):
Ceiling is not very high.
Speaker 4 (13:33):
Yeah, yeah, so I think I think ultimately short term,
Spencer Steer is the answer. Long term, man, that's because
I don't know that Cees can ever stay healthy now.
Speaker 5 (13:45):
He finds injuries.
Speaker 4 (13:48):
Yeah, it's his wrist, it's his back, it's his leg,
it's his you know whatever. And and when he's in
the and he's so all or nothing, it's hard for
me to really be sold on that. I think I
think it's very likely that they are still looking for
a first basement this offseason.
Speaker 5 (14:08):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
The Cees thing to me, the end of the twenty
twenty three season feels longer ago for him than it
does for some of these other.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
Guys, even Noovi Marte yeaheah, sure, yeah, go ahead, yeah. Now,
I just think that Ces is one of those guys
that is going to always be stuck in the scouting
report and makes me wonder if he's a quadruple A player,
just like Will Benson, and just like Reese Hines and
Blake Dunn and Tyler Callahan and maybe Jake.
Speaker 5 (14:38):
Freley as well.
Speaker 4 (14:39):
Like it seems like there are so many of these
guys that you could make a a better argument that
they're a quadruple A player than they are a major
league player.
Speaker 2 (14:46):
Well, there are a lot of the names you just mentioned.
I try to PLoP them into the middle of and
people are going to say this isn't fair. But I
try to PLoP him into the middle of the Chicago
Cubs lineup, and I don't see a role for him there.
Speaker 3 (14:58):
And then you could be you could you could start.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
To talk about the Dodgers and Madson, but I just
I make it about the team they're chasing down in
the NL Central and there are there are a lot
of guys who get regular playing time here or who
are on the team with the idea that they get
regular playing time once healthy that I look at and go,
I'm not sure that guy's getting regular playing time for
the Chicago Cubs.
Speaker 4 (15:19):
And I think with the Reds Cubs argument as well,
like we always like to make the argument, a good
pitching staff beats a good lineup, But the issue is
if the Reds pitching staff isn't good on a given day,
I don't know that their lineup is good enough to
catch up, and we've seen them score a decent bit
so far this season. It's kind of overloaded by that
(15:39):
one game in Baltimore. But I think too that the
lineup's going to be good enough when the pitching is great,
and the question is when the pitching is just good
enough or even maybe average, is the lineup good enough
because the pitching was good enough on Sunday. I still
even think with the with the bullpen giving up a
couple of runs, you should expect to in a game
(16:00):
where you only give up four runs. But this lineup
is so inconsistent. Albeit it has what feels like a
good ceiling, but it still seems like that floor is
super low too.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
Yeah, It's what annoys me about this team is the
starting pitching is, you know, number one in baseball, I
think in whip you know, near the top.
Speaker 3 (16:18):
Of the sport, upper fourth of the sport.
Speaker 2 (16:20):
In a lot of different metrics, they're a number one
in quality start percentage, which you can do whatever you
want with that. Like, you know, I know, Niico Lodolo
on Saturday wasn't great, but Nick Martinez was good enough yesterday. Obviously,
Hunter Green was awesome on Friday. I just I'm frustrated
that I feel like they're gonna waste the sort of
starting pitching that year to year to year is really
(16:42):
hard to replicate.
Speaker 4 (16:44):
And I think that the biggest, biggest source of frustration
with this team, for you and for me and for
most folks that watch this team day in and day out,
is that we don't know what we don't know about them,
and that just means we fall back on.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
What we know about red teams of years past. Yes,
and I hate doing that.
Speaker 4 (17:03):
What we feel this way in May, we feel this
way in July, and then ultimately they missed the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
Yeah, I guess for me and I started my show
by talking about this. It just it constantly feels like
we're talking ourselves into, Hey, they're about to take off,
which after that Baltimore series, I harped on this, like,
these next two weeks, win these series, you should sweep Colorado,
who's terrible. Go to Miami and win two out of three,
Get three out of four from Saint Louis, get two
(17:32):
out of three from Washington. The fact that they didn't
obviously does not doom their season. Nobody would say that
on May fifth. But I just feel like I feel
like we keep talking ourselves into how the most recent
missed opportunity is one that they can make up for.
Speaker 3 (17:49):
And they never do. And that might not be fair.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
To this team because I'm I'm folding them into conversations
about so many of their predecessors. But I just I
walked away from the game yesterday into that thinking, all right,
get this one and Martinez pitched, well, get this one
winning homestand you you can at least cling to that.
Go to Atlanta two above five hundred, you know, like
it just it felt like such a missed opportunities last
(18:15):
two weeks, and during this stretch they've gotten you know
representatives starting pitching in many cases better than that, and
yet they're still offensively spinning their tires and they're not
making up ground, and they're still flirting with five hundred,
and they're still an eighty three win team based on pace.
Was what I thought they were going to be before
the season started, and I'm frustrated.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Can you hear it in my voice, Jeff, I.
Speaker 5 (18:38):
Can feel it.
Speaker 4 (18:39):
I can feel it to the phone, and I'm with
you because I think that right now where they are
is so hard to evaluate because of their schedule, where
they're going to be in six weeks, I think we
will be able to we will know what we know
about this team because they are playing a probably the
toughest part of their schedule, and then they're going to
(18:59):
go into seven games before the All Star Break against
Colorado and Miami. That if they're if they're in the
All Star break and they're looking at is maybe six
games above five hundred, I'm feeling really good about their
chances to make the playoffs. But if they are hovering
around five hundred, maybe a couple of games under five hundred,
I don't think they make the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
So for you, it's all about that stretch right before
the break when they played two awful teams both those series.
Speaker 4 (19:22):
Here, Well, it's and leading up to that, like do
is the serie is?
Speaker 5 (19:28):
The is?
Speaker 4 (19:29):
The is the group of games that they're about to
play that starts with Atlanta and it finishes with that
home stand of like the Yankees and the Padres, Like
does that sink them? Because if they can't get through
that close to five hundred, I don't think they make
the playoffs?
Speaker 3 (19:45):
Yeah, I it was for me.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
I'm I'm gonna put a lot of weight in the
six games they have against the Cubs here at the
end of the month, three here, then three then yeah, right,
like I'm I make a dent head to head against
the team that right now feels like the one to
beat in the National League Central all apologies to the
Milwaukee Brewers, Like there, you know, make your statement if
you will, but also like make your move, make your
(20:10):
move against the team you're chasing, and then you come
out of that. You know, we always talk about where
teams are. Memorial Day gives us an idea of you know,
where they're going to finish. I put a lot of
weight on those two series, but I just I feel
so much better.
Speaker 3 (20:26):
Have they taken care of business against teams that Franklin
aren't that great?
Speaker 4 (20:29):
And here we are now, and you add those three
against Milwaukee after those six against Chicago, and you've got
twelve games.
Speaker 5 (20:36):
That you really really need to win.
Speaker 3 (20:38):
You're right about that, all right?
Speaker 5 (20:39):
Man?
Speaker 2 (20:40):
It had been way too long. I can't thank you
enough for doing this. We'll do it against Sue Man.
Thanks so much.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
Absolutely, go d That's our guy.
Speaker 2 (20:46):
Jeff Carr locked on Red's podcast We Are Way Late
twenty four after four ESPN fifteen thirty Cincinnati Sports.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
Station Cincinnati's ESPN fifteen thirty.
Speaker 7 (21:00):
From the UC Health Traffic Center. When it comes to stroke,
every second counts. That's why U see health is the
clear choice for rapid life saving treatment. Learn more at
UCHealth dot com. Southbound seventy five at Western Avenue, the
right two lanes blocked off from an accident. Traffic their
stuff and go from Hoppel on westbound two to seventy
(21:21):
five accident onto the right shoulder at Springfield Pike and
southbound seventy one seventy five accident on the left shoulder
after the Brent Spence Bridge. I'm at Ezelik with traffic.
Speaker 3 (21:32):
This report is sponsored by the Greater Cincinnati Four Dealers
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