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July 12, 2024 13 mins
The MLB Draft starts this weekend. The great Chris Crawford joined us to tell us who we want the Reds to draft. We also discussed the state of the Cincinnati farm system, and his thoughts on Rece Hinds.

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Episode Transcript

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(00:00):
I think we're doing a draft showfor the MLB draft, are we No?

(00:04):
Okay, I'm just started to makesure that it wasn't happening and I
was not invited her something to bea part of it. I like doing
draft shows. Baseball draft starts onSunday. It obviously doesn't come with the
hype and excitement of the NFL Draftor the NBA Draft, but it's still
very, very important. Red's havethe second overall pick when it comes to

(00:25):
the draft. Our go to guyis Chris Crawford, NBC Sports roade O
World, also KJR and iHeartRadio stationin Seattle. You're a busy man,
Chris, I appreciate it. Let'sstart with this. It's good. I
guess in any year when you havethe second overall pick, some years it's
better than others. I guess basedon the talent pool that's available. So

(00:48):
is this one of those years?Is this a good year to have the
second overall pick? I think anyyear is a good year to have the
second overall pick. There are certainlybetter years than others. I think this
is a really good year to havethe second over I'll pick for a couple
of reasons. Number one. There'sthree or four elite players in this class,
and so that's good. The problemalso is after those top three or

(01:12):
four, this draft class really lacksthe quantity and quality that you would look
like. I can't remember where Cincinnatiwas supposed to pick before the lottery.
I can't remember where I put mycar keys. How am I supposed to
remember where the Cincinnati Reads were supposedto pick? But if they were picking
in that slot, it would notbe a good year to have that type

(01:34):
of pick. But because of thecollege bat because there is some upside with
those plays, I do believe,to answer your question very long wigedly,
that it is a very good yearto have the number two pits. All
right, So obviously one guy's goingto come off the board that's going to
leave the Reds with their pick ofa handful of elite players. As you
put it, who's the guy thatI want? I think that the guy

(01:57):
that you want is going to bethe guy that you get, and that
I think is Charlie Common, anoutfielder's last third baseman, almost a certainly
third baseman, and where even somequestion marks about that position. This guy,
I mean, you've all seen thestats they're absolutely bonkers. This guy
has elite power and you can't helpbut think playing in that ballpark, gapv
the or GAVP excuse me that hecouldn't hit forty to forty five homers on

(02:21):
a regular basis. It's that typeof power. But it's not just that
one tool. He is a plushit tool. He has a very strong
throwing arm. It could play inright field for sure if he has the
athleticism for it, but it'll certainlyplay at the hot corner for a few
years. And you know what,it'll help with cut off throws if you
have to move, make the moveto first base. I like Travis Benzana.

(02:42):
I think Jock Ketianoagley has a chanceto be a really nice player.
I don't believe in the two waystuff that much with him, but just
the terms of high ceiling, highfloor, I believe that charliekalmdun is the
best player in the straft all right, high ceiling, high floor college guy.
Does that mean if he's the guyat number two, I could see
him a great American ballpark reasonably soon. Yeah. Absolutely. I think that

(03:05):
it wouldn't be an upset at allif he was playing in twenty twenty five.
Now what that on it? Forevery Paul Schemes, we see a
bunch of these guys who end uptaking a couple of years of development.
But I think that's one of thereasons why you're taking him number two,
is because the offensive skill set isso advanced he recognize his pitch as well.
Obviously the power is not hypothetical here. We have seen what this guy

(03:27):
can do in terms of taking theball out of the ballpark. Now,
some of this might depend on whatthey do with him defensively. You know,
if they want him to play inthe outfield, maybe it takes a
little bit longer because you've got somestuff to work out there. But if
you made the move just to thirdbase, I think this is absolutely somebody
who could be helping you. Youknow, if I put an eta on
it sometime around the All Star breaktwenty twenty five, if not certainly helping

(03:50):
you in twenty twenty six, let'slet's kind of talk about beyond the first
round. And you know, obviouslythere's this is going to take place over
multiple days, But where's the strengthin this draft where just a team like
the Reds, where can they getbetter during this year's draft process. You
know, that's probably the nice thingfor Cincinnati as well, is that there

(04:13):
aren't a lot of elite high schoolbats. There's only two that I would
give first round first round grades too, in Connor Griffin and Bryce Raynier.
But there are some high school batsthat I think make sense in that second
round range. Second round range.Excuse me, some guys like the o'gillen
if he was to slip, there'sbeen some Talkie could go as high at
fifteen, but I could see himflighting into that range. Kellen Lindsay,

(04:35):
one of the best athletes in thedraft, eighty grade runner, a really
good defensive player, think that hewould make sense in that range. Thinking
of guys like Griffith Ferrell, whois a guy that's kind of reminds me
a little bit of it gets GunnerHenderson comparisons. I don't think that's fair,
but I kind of see the similarschool still skill set because everything has

(04:58):
a chance to be above average.Obviously, nobody predicted Gunner Henderson to be
this type of pulp brunt hitter atthat point, but there are some high
school bats that I think make sensein that range, and if you're taking
that college high floor guy, it'sa little easier to justify in the second
round or your next draft pick,taking somebody who has a little bit longer
to go, a little bit morehelium, a little bit more dreaming they

(05:20):
have to do. But I thinkthat is one nice thing for the Reds
as well, is that those prepbats do make sense in that area.
You and I have talked a lotabout Reds prospects who are at the big
league level right now. Yeah,you know, but I mean we've talked
extensively about Elie Dela Cruz and HunterGreen and Nicko Lodolo and a lot of

(05:40):
guys that were watching at the moment, and guys the Reds have acquired from
other clubs. It has left,I think a little bit of a gap
between some of the promise of thelower part of the farm system and what
they have at the big league level. Now, So let's just talk about
this from a thirty thousand foot viewthe farm system as is understanding. Who
has graduated to the big league levelof the last year plus, how would

(06:01):
you rate it? It's a reallygood question, because I don't think you
can just completely ignore that Cincinnati hasgraduated so much young talent. Having said
that, I do think that thisis a farm system that's ranking closer to
the bottom half than the top half. I love Rhet Louder. I thought

(06:23):
that was a really good pick.I believe we talked about it last year
because you've absolutely never ignored me atthis time of year, and I appreciate
it. I need be attended andit's been nice to see. You know,
camp Collier has shown flashes of brilliance. He needs to put it together
on a more consistent basis, forsure. As I look today, he's
hitting two thirty one, but therehave been absolutely moments there. Alfred Duno

(06:44):
is Alfredo Duno, excuse me,is one of my favorite prospects of the
catch at the catching position right now. There are some young talented players.
Connor Phillips development obviously has been akind of a disaster in twenty twenty four.
That ten point one one era thatI'm starting out right now is pretty
I believe the kids call it ickypants, but there's no doubt that there

(07:04):
is talent still in the system.But you're looking at like Red Lauder probably
profiling as a mid rotation starter.Ed Win a Royal, probably profiling as
a regular, but a bottom ofthe order type of hitter, a guy
who hit seventh, eighth, ninth, cam call year, maybe a bench
bat right now South Stewart, somereal defensive question marks going on right there,

(07:26):
and also probably profiles as a lefthand or excuse me, a guy
who comes in and hits against lefthanded pitchers. Those are nice players to
have, but they're not necessarily thestar type of prospects that you want to
have at the top of your system. There's some work to be done,
and that's why it's another thing.It's great to have the number two pick
because you're going to add a topfifteen to twenty prospect, maybe even a

(07:48):
top ten prospect with that second Whatabout my new favorite player, rees Hines?
Where are you and him? Soresigns? I think is really fun,
and I know that the numbers havejust been absolutely bumkers, and I
hope everyone is having a blast.I hope everyone's already ready for the comedown
too, because this is a guywho struck out one hundred and twenty six

(08:11):
times in two hundred ninety six atbets. But you see that the ball
just jumps off of this dude's back, and it's never been a question mark
with power. With him, it'snever really been a question mark with athleticism.
He also has a canon of anarm. He's that type of player
that you just kind of love towatch because he hit ball real far and
he throw ball real fast. Ihave real question marks about whether or not

(08:31):
the hit tool can actually play,but it's a really fun story, and
I don't think there's any reason tothink he can't be at least a useful
bench player. If he puts everythingtogether, he can be a regular,
maybe even a slightly above average one. But you have to acknowledge that there
is just as much risk, ifnot more than there is reward. All

(08:52):
Right, one more because you're busy, and this might be a stupid question.
So Reese hines. They call himup, and the first thing we
all do is look at his numbersat Louisville, and they're not good.
How should we contextualize minor league statistics? Who That's a really really good question.
It's it's important to see success atthe minor league level, and I

(09:16):
think that's growing truer and truer aswe get less levels, because you're seeing
guys compete against their same talent levellike when we had And I don't get
me wrong, I hate what's happenedto minor league baseball. I miss seeing
short season baseball and all of thatstuff. But we would see guys that

(09:39):
were just completely overmatched, or wewould see guys that were way too good
to be at that level. Idon't think you see that nearly as often
anymore. There are some cases ofit, in part because hey, there's
only so many places that they cango. But I do think there is
some sort of core between success atthe minor league level and correlation for success

(10:03):
at the highest level, more sothan other levels. I will say this
though, too. You got totake a look at more stuff. Now
we have more information like on extivevelocity and launch angle and sprint speed and
barrel right and stuff like that.I think those numbers matter just as much,
if not more, than the minorleague stats. Now, I'll be

(10:24):
honest with you, I haven't checkedout a ton of resigned stats, but
I bet you his exti velocities wereamong the very best in minor league baseball.
I bet you his barrel right wasamong the very best in minor league
baseball. Too. Yes he hittwo sixteen. Yes he strikes out a
ton because he has a ton oflength in its wing and he's not exactly
the most patient hitter in the world. But I bet you those advanced stats,
which actually I think matter a littlebit more right now. And if

(10:48):
you wanted to argue that we usehim too much, I understand, and
it's a changing world and sorry foryou, but I do think that there
is no doubt that success at thehighest level is generally correlated with success at
the minor league level. But thereare always exceptions to those rules. All
right, I said that would bemy last question, but what you said

(11:09):
prompted a follow up. So hereis you mentioned metrical study, Yeah,
well, and me advanced metrics.How much of that data is available when
we are talking about college kids andobviously also high school guys as well as
we prepare for the draft. It'savailable. It's hard to find, though,

(11:30):
and a lot of that stuff isgoing to be stuff that you've got
to pay for and you have towell. In the college level, especially,
it's not going to be as obvious. But there are websites like d
one Baseball that will provide you somecontext between those things minor league level.
It's something that you can find onthe Baseball savont pages. You can find.
One of the big things you canfind with Baseball Savants is you can

(11:52):
find the dsw THN for pitchers thatcalled strikes and whips. And that is
a very important statistic that you haveto denye on because you know, we're
finding that era is not necessarily thebest way to judge pitchers. We want
to see guys who can full hittersinto taking pitches that are strikes and also
swing and mist at those pitches.Those numbers are not as readily available as

(12:15):
you get from the major league stats. Baseball Savant. Hech I might as
well be my homepages at this point, because you know, it's just part
of it's being a Seattle Mariner fanand just looking for hope watching these guys
hit two eighteen, you know whatI mean, looking for some hard hit
percentages. But those things are readilyapparent. The minor league ones. You
got to scourge a little bit,but you can find it. Other thing
to keep in mind here, too, though, is as good as Baseball

(12:37):
Savant is as good as some ofthese other tracking datas, is major league
teams have their own tracking data thatis much better, much more advanced than
You're never going to see it becauseit is basically the propriet proprietary technology that
they're going to keep to themselves.They do it with defensive stuff, they

(12:58):
do it with pitch stuff. Youknow. They we have all sorts of
advanced models and analytics that they keepto themselves. We get some public data,
which is cool. They get someprivate data which helps them an awful
lot outstanding information. I'll boby younext week. Have a great weekend,
man, Thanks so much, mypleasure. Have a good one. Chris
Crawford, NBC Sports roto World andyou know he's an iHeartRadio colleague of ours

(13:22):
KJR in Seattle, twenty seven awayfrom four o'clock, we're broadcasting from the
Holy Grail downtown Cincinnati, getting saidfor Reds and Marlins, tonight sports headlines
and more. Next ESPN fifteen thirty, Cincinnati Sports station

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