7-16-24 - Mo Egger with Aram Leighton

Aram Leighton of JustBaseball.com joined us to talk about the players the Reds chose in the 2024 MLB Draft.

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Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Layton's with us, the co founderof Jess Baseball. This guy knows more
about the draft than any human beingalive. He's on Twitter at Aaron Layton
eight and good to have you.As always, if you were running the
Reds draft, would you have takenChase Burns with the second overall pick?
Honestly, no, but it's notsomething to be totally upset about. You

(00:24):
get a guy that throws one hundredwith a disgusting spider and a great curveball.
Personally, you know, I thinkwhen you have a pick here at
number two, you have an opportunityto take a couple game changing bats.
I think at this stage where youcould have went with Charlie Condon, you
could have went with Jack kag Leon, could have went with Weather Hold,
a couple other guys. I wouldhave leaned towards the bat, and just

(00:44):
that's just kind of a natural biasfor me a little bit too when it
comes to drafting that high. ButI can also understand what the Red saw
and the Chase Burns, and youknow, I think they could dream on
some of the similarities to Hunter Greenand what could what that could look like
and not very long amount of timewith how quickly he could get to the
big leagues for them, So Iunderstand the pick, but with a guy

(01:06):
that did kind of struggle at timeswith getting swings and missus with the fastball,
did have a bit of a homerun problem. Yes, Lake Forest
is one of the I think oneof the worst bandboxes for a pitcher in
college baseball. But at the sametime, I mean, he had a
nine hundred ops or above a ninehundred ops against on the fastball on the
road too, So that's something thatthe Reds obviously are aware of and must

(01:29):
feel confident that they can rectify.But it is something to watch us.
Of course, Great American Ballpark's notthe easiest place to keep the ball in
the yard either, No, noquestion, you mentioned Hunter Green, Hunter's
kind of mastered the art of doingthat. Most had this kid as the
best pitcher in the draft, ifthat's what your evaluation was. How much
room was there between him and guynumber two. I had him as kind

(01:52):
of one B the Hagen Smith's oneA okay, just because I felt like
Hagen Smith's fastball in terms of justbeing able to get the swing and miss
with that pitch alone. The slideroff of that that was the best combination
of pitches in the draft. Hestarted to really show a feel for the
change up later on. But Ican also understand seeing a big body Chase

(02:12):
Burns, a guy that you knowfrom a durability perspective has not only been
able to just stay on the moundand eat innings, but holds his velocity
late into starts, holds his velocitylate into seasons through one hundred innings this
year, and was sitting still inthe upper nineties late in the year.
For me, it's just more ofa preference. I like the funky lefties
that get the end zone with butit really is you know, one A,

(02:35):
one B there. And I thinkwith the Reds though, and you
look at an organizational fit, certainteams are better at developing the Chase Burns
type. Certain teams are better atdeveloping the Hagen Smith type. So it
would really it's so close with thoseguys. It would depend on what my
organizational infrastructure looked like. But Ithink with Burns you alluded to it,
they have proof of concepts here ofgetting guys like that right, And I'm

(02:57):
just imagining him being able to sitdown and talk to one hundred who they
have so many similarities there, andI could just imagine that things could really
start to click there. And Ido think Chase Burns has a better chance
to find that split if they everwanted to try that. Then you know
Hunter Green who did kind of strugglewith it a little bit as he tried
to experiment with that pitch, thatover the top delivery, it could work

(03:19):
for him. So I think theymay be looking at Chase Burns and saying,
hey, a couple of weeks hereand here and there, and we
can make him clearly the best pitcherin this class. All Right, let's
skip a guy. We'll come backto Tyson Lewis. Let's stay on the
pitching side of things. Luke Colemanbreak down him for me. Yeah,
Well, Coleman's kind of a greathedge of that in terms of you're getting
a higher floor piece here that Ithink is just going to be able to

(03:43):
climb the minor leagues relatively quickly.He throws strikes and to be honest,
kind of outpitch the stuff when itcomes to a swing in this perspective,
strike out right over thirty percent.But the slider alone is just a fantastic
pitch and that's gonna I think,give him at least the high enough floor
to where he can be a multireliever. But I think you're looking at
a guy here that has a goodthree almost four pitch. He mixed in

(04:03):
a change up a little bit,but a good three pitch mix uh fills
up the zone and off a bigframe that maybe they're hoping can grow into
a little bit more velocity. Andit was a really good start to the
season. A little bit of aplateau in the middle, and then he
finished strong again and seemed to findsome things for him there down the line.
But I love the way he's ableto turn over lineups. He mixes
his looks enough. It is someonethat you're probably not, you know,

(04:26):
jumping out of your chair to gosee you to go pitch. But I'll
tell you what, I love havingmy organization filled with with guys that you
know, could just throw strikes thatmix it up and get out and turn
lineups over. And you know,we're talking about the seventy first pick in
the draft here, so I thoughtthat was a pretty good get for them
and a guy that they can pushpretty aggressively alarm latens with this just Baseball
dot Com. The kid in themiddle, and I've joked the Reds needed

(04:50):
another shortstop, right They've got abillion of them, but they take another
one high school kid, Tyson Lewis. What do you like about him?
Tyson Lewis, I think when youlook at the class, this is a
little bit of the standout in termsof the wide range of outcomes and excitability
because other than of course Burns.But at the end of the day,
like that's the number two prospect orthe numbers two pick in the draft,

(05:11):
of course there's going to be massiveupside. Lewis is a guy that I
think when you compare them to theother position players that were taken, brings
a little bit more to the tablewhere you can dream on different outcomes.
Here of a guy that can reallymotor, I think there's a little bit
more room for strength and impact there. I think it's a fun overall operation
in the box where he's still wantingto get the ball, lift the ball

(05:32):
in the air a bit more consistently, but it's a quick stroke. I
think as he starts to find howto sequence the upper upper aff and lower
have a bit more he might startto see him elevate and tap into more
juice with the speed, with thepotential defensively to play a decent shortstop.
He kind of moved all over duringthe summer circuit, showing that he could
play a little bit of outfield,show that he could play third. Like,

(05:53):
this is just a really good athlete, and I think to be able
to add a really good athlete consideringthe other, you know, higher fort
college guys that they got here,I thought it was a great combination there,
and I think you got to beexcited about the potential that that Tyson
Lewis has, even if there's ifhe's a slower burn. I do love
those left ddted hitting infielders who canvoter and have some power to dream on.

(06:13):
All right, focus specifically on thefirst two days, which is the
first ten rounds. I'm not goingto ask you about every player, but
of the guys we haven't talked aboutyet, is there one name above all
that's a little bit more intriguing.I'd say Mike Siota, because this is
a player that was expected to bea first round pick going in this year,
not only a first round pick,a relatively early first round pick at

(06:36):
a Northeastern and there was some concernsfor me with with like the swing mechanics
and how that would you know,vote for him against more advanced competition.
But it almost seemed like he waspressing at a point through the season.
And it's pretty easy to do thatwhen you're not playing in the SEC or
not on as big of a stageconsistently. To be able to prove yourself

(06:59):
to you know, these scouts,you got to just put up big time
numbers if you're at some of thesemore mid major schools, and I think
as you start to slump a littlebit, it starts to mount on you
more and more and more. Andthat's what I saw from Sirota. But
we're talking about a guy that canstick in center field, that has at
least average power but can grow intoa little bit more, that also has
a good feel to hit, andfinish the season really really well. So

(07:23):
I thought with the way that hefinished, it would have validated some of
the teams that were in scouts whoare very high on him to enough to
maybe start to look at him maybeas a compensation round pick. He still
ends up sliding, and this isa guy that over his last fifteen games,
hit three sixty opp almost at sixhundred, and slugged over seven hundred.

(07:43):
He walked three like three to everyone time he struck out, Like
clearly something clicked for him down thestretch. And when you're looking at a
guy that could steal eight bags andhit four homers over his final fifteen games
of his collegiate career and what lookedlike at points a lost season, that's
enough for me to get excited andsay, Okay, maybe this guy figured
it out a little bit down thestretch, and maybe we can help him
figure it out in professional baseball.But it just was crazy to see him

(08:07):
slide so much. If you cango back and look at some early mock
drafts, you're seeing this guy gosometimes as early as the top ten,
and now you get him at eightyseven. He's not a different person.
I think there's a lot to likehere, and I think there's a lot
of reasons to believe that he canget closer to that guy. I think
maybe it was a bit of anoverestimate there that he would make the lead

(08:28):
that maybe people were expecting when theymocked him in the top ten. But
that said, I think he's alot better than the eighty seventh pick in
this draft. All right, awesomestuff. I have one more for you,
involving somebody who has nothing to dowith this year's draft. I need
what your take is on Reese Higinsbased on your previous evaluation of him.
Look, he's not gonna do whathe did in his first week in the

(08:50):
big leagues, but it's been invigoratingas a fan. It's been a lot
of fun to watch. It's beenI think an exaggerated version of what we
all think Reese can be, whichis a guy who can hit the ball
a long way but also strike outa bunch. What's it been like watching
a guy that I know you havescouted do what he has done in his
first week as a Red I'm justso pumped for resigns the person forced and

(09:11):
first and foremost, this guy's beenbanged up like crazy and just has had
so much bad injury luck. Imean, there's no doubting the power,
there's no doubting what he can bringto the table. And I joked on
Twitter that Reds fans deserved another Achino, but I think heinz. You know,
it translates a little bit more ifhe can continue to, you know,

(09:33):
I think, refine the approach,stay healthy. And I think the
big thing for me, though,is I still see that length to the
swing. I still see a guythat's probably when when pitchers start to figure
out how to game plan for him, it may be a little bit more
difficult for him to succeed this way. But I think what he's proving right
now is that he has the abilityto hold a big league role. And

(09:58):
maybe that's the short side of aplatoon where he's just facing lefties. Maybe
it's a bench option, but thisguy's proving that, Hey, I'm not
some forgotten guy in the upper minersthat strikes out, you know, forty
percent of the time he was withand a lot. But I think just
seeing this go through and seeing whatcan happen when he gets pitches to hit,
that can be a short side ofthe platoon guy. So I think

(10:18):
at the very least, he's proventhat he's worth a big, big roster
spot and deserves a little bit morerun. But I think people are also
gonna have to be patient when itgets rough for him. It gets really
rough when he's going well, he'sgoing really well, but this can at
least be a guy that can getup and be a spark plug, travel
back and forth, or be ashort sided platoon guy. But I'll say,
let's enjoy every bit of this stretchbecause he deserves it, and I

(10:39):
know Reds fans deserve it too.Yeah, you got that right, arm
awesome stuff as always. Man.I always love having you on, and
we'll do it if the Reds atthe trade deadline trade for some dudes.
I need to know about him callingyou okay, Oh, I would love
that. It's nice to be onthe other side of it, potentially,
because the first time you and Igot together, man, we were breaking
down the return. You were talkingto me off the line and successfully.

(11:01):
So hey, I think I couldtell you were like a little bit like
okay, prospect guys trying to sellme on these highs' our big leaguers are
gone, Spencer's guys not so beast. You know what, you put him
on my radar. You put meCees have been very good this year and
he's been hurt, but you puthim on my radar. So uh,
I put a lot of stock onwhat you say and have now for a

(11:22):
few years. So I appreciate itman, we'll do it again soon.
Thanks for having me on. I'mexcited. You guys are buyers now.
Yeah, there you go. Thatguy is one of the best. Arm
Layton follow him on Twitter at armLayton and get his work at jess Baseball
dot com. It is twenty fiveaway from six o'clock. We'll update today's
rather pointless poll questions, and we'lldo some Bengals with our favorite Bengals person.

(11:46):
Next. ESPN fifteen thirty Cincinnati SportsStation, Cincinnati's