July 22, 2024 • 15 mins
79 years ago the first nuclear weapon was detonated in Los Alamos, New Mexico, in a test that ushered in the age of nuclear warfare. Since then, the US has been closer to nuclear war many more times than most Americans would guess. Should nucelar war come to pass…what would happen? Is there such a thing as being prepared? Annie Jacobsen’s new book is Nuclear War: A Scenario. Jacobsen is the author of the Pulitzer Prize Finalist in History THE PENTAGON'S BRAIN, the New York Times bestsellers AREA 51, OPERATION PAPERCLIP, and other books.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:02):
Welcome to Get Connected with Nina delRio, a weekly conversation about fitness,
health and happenings in our community onone oh six point seven Light FM.
Good morning, and thanks for listeningto Get Connected. Seventy nine years ago,
the first nuclear weapon was detonated inLos Alamus, New Mexico, on
July sixteenth, nineteen forty five.The test ushered in the age of nuclear
(00:26):
warfare. Since then, in reallife, the US has been closer to
nuclear war many more times than mostAmericans would think. Should it come to
pass, What would happen? Isthere such a thing as being prepared?
Our guest is Annie Jacobson, authorof the Pulitzer Prize finalist in history,
The Pentagon's Brain, New York TimesBestseller's Area fifty one and Operation Paperclip,
(00:47):
and other books. Her new book, The One We'll talk about now is
nuclear war a scenario? Annie Jacobson, thank you for being on Get Connected.
Thank you so much for having me. Nuclear war of it is always
there, but since World War Twothe world has managed to avoid it.
Why this book now, Well,you know, during the previous administration,
(01:11):
when former President Trump was talking about, you know, fire and fury with
North Korea, and there was nuclearrhetoric going on. I a national security
reporter who has spent my career writingabout military and intelligence community operations, all
of which are designed to prevent nuclearWorld War III. I began to really
(01:34):
wonder with all of this rhetoric Ihad never seen coming out of President's mouth
before or read about what would happenif deterrence failed. And I put that
question to the highest ranking national securityadvisors that I could locate that would go
on the record with me, andforty six of them did. And what
(01:57):
I learned was shocking, and theytook me through the reality of what happens
in nuclear war, second by second, minute by minute. I have to
say this book is chilling. Ihaven't finished it because I'm so enthralled in
the details of it. For thisbook, as you said, you spoke
with many nuclear command and control authorities, Leon Panetta, among them the former
(02:21):
Defense Secretary William Perry, scientists suchas Richard L. Garwin. The US
has been preparing for nuclear war,testing, running scenarios, building defenses at
the end of World War II,spending trillions of dollars. Politics aside,
What did they tell you about howit's going. How confident or what are
they confident about as far as preparationsand what are they not. The takeaway
(02:44):
from all of the people I spokewith, either literally or subtextually, you
know, kind of figuratively, wasthat nuclear war is insane. To quote
President Reagan and Gorbachev when they issuedthat joint statement nuclear war not be one
and must never be fought. Andyet we exist with an arsenal of nuclear
(03:08):
weapons on ready for launch status oneyseven hundred and seventy of them, and
the Russians have approximately the same numberpointed at us ready for launch, and
that only speaks of two of thenine nuclear armed nations. And so we
are all literally living at the razor'sedge. And as rhetoric escalates, and
(03:32):
you now have people like President Putin, you know, saying he's not joking
about using WMD. You have theleader of North Korea accusing America of having
a sinister intention to provoke nuclear war. This is profoundly dangerous. And I
believe that all of my sources wenton the record with me because they are
(03:54):
humans before they are necessarily former officials, and they don't want the world to
end in nuclear armageddon. And yetwe have come closer than we would like
to nuclear war at least six times, as you recount in the book.
Can you talk about those almost moments? You know, one of the most
(04:14):
frightening almost moments came to me fromformer Secretary of Defense Bill Perry. And
I reference this one because I liketo get first hand witnesses telling their story,
because then it doesn't get filtered throughthe telephone game. And so Perry
is the person who in nineteen seventynine was on the night watch and would
(04:35):
have had to tell President Carter ifhe needed to launch a nuclear counterattack.
And that is precisely what happened whenPerry was given information not only from the
bunker beneath the Pentagon, but confirmedby the Stratcom bunker, the bunker in
Nebraska, that there were thousands ofRussian missiles on their way. And when
(04:58):
Perry relayed this story to me,despite the fact that it was almost fifty
years ago, I could sense theanxiety in his voice just telling me about
it, because he thought he wasgoing to have to advise the President that
it was time to launch a nuclearcounterattack. Moments later he was notified that
actually it was in a mistake.It was a false alarm that it was
(05:20):
a training tape, an actual wargametraining tape that had been mistakenly inserted into
the machinery at the Pentagon. Andwhat Perry said to me was it looked
real because it was supposed to lookreal. It is true that the US
president has the sole authority to launchAmerica's weapons. They don't have to ask
(05:43):
anyone's permission. What did those expertssay to you about not only the task
of absorbing the situation and their confidencein a presidential response. Back to the
Carter story, there's a blip inthere about someone not wanting to wake him.
I believe you know, the presidentis the most important individual in this
scenario. And I'm not a politicalwriter. I write about otis president of
(06:06):
the United States. But there wasan absolute sentiment from all of my sources
that the president must have as twoleading qualities character qualities. He must have
judgment and he must have cognition.And this is because of his sole presidential
(06:26):
authority. When the time comes tolaunch in response to a strategic weapon coming
at the United States, the presidenthas to make his decision in six minutes,
and he asks no one, notthe Secretary of Defense, not the
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, not Congress. It's his decision alone
to make. He gets advised bythose people, but it's up to him.
(06:48):
And so one must then ask whydon't we have commanders in chief that
are either discussing this issue or weas citizens are asking them to discuss this
issue? Because what could possibly bemore important? And I think you can
figure that answer out to that questionif you read Nuclear War Scenario. Our
(07:12):
guest is Annie Jacobson. Her newbook is Nuclear War Our Scenario. Jacobson's
books have been named best of theYear and most anticipated by outlets including The
Washington Post, USA Today, TheBoston Globe, Apple, and Amazon.
Her book The Pentagon's Brain was aPulitzer Prize finalist in History. You're listening
to Get connected on one six pointseven light FM. I'm Nina del Rio.
(07:34):
As a rule, missile tests areusually announced to neighboring countries, the
exception being North Korea. As yourecount in the book, between January twenty
two and May twenty three, NorthKorea launch test launched over one hundred missiles
capable of reaching the US. Noneof those were announced. Should North Korea
or any country launch an armed nuclearwarhead toward the US, how long before
(07:59):
the world know it's real and knowswhere it's going. Well, you know,
reporting this book was one shocking learning, one shocking bit of information after
the next. As you talk about, and so those one hundred missiles that
were launched by North Korea, manyof which could reach the United States,
many of which were ballistic missiles,none of those were announced. And so
(08:22):
when you when you learn about nuclearcommand and control and how it works,
as I did, and as Irelate, you realize that in the first
one hundred seconds after a ballistic missilelaunch out of North Korea, because we
America has this incredible satellite system inspace parked over North Korea watching for a
(08:43):
launch, we know about that launch, and in a fraction of a second,
And so the one hundred seconds thatfollows is nuclear command and control.
These three bunkers I take readers throughin the United States, beneath the Pentagon,
inside Cheyenne Mountain, beneath Stratcom inNebraska. Those hundred seconds, you've
(09:05):
got all kinds of people scrambling totry and figure out the trajectory of the
missile, and that is an alertsystem that should leave anyone with the hair
raised on the back of the neckbecause it's just far too dangerous. And
what is the math, assuming Ibelieve our closest nuclear foe would be North
(09:28):
Korea, what's the math on howlong it would take for an ICBM to
reach North America. Yes, andthis math is very precise. So from
a launchpad in Russia around Moscow,it would take twenty six minutes and forty
seconds. From a launchpad in NorthKorea thirty three minutes. Keep in mind
(09:50):
that an ICBM cannot be redirected orrecalled. And so when the Defense Department
learns after that one hundred seconds passand they begin to realize the precise trajectory
of the missile, that is,when the counterattack goes into motion. It
has to be confirmed by a secondarysource, which is a system of radars
(10:11):
we have on the ground, andthat happens at about nine minutes of the
scenario. And from there it movesinto the office of the President where the
president is asked to make a counterstrike. That is called launch on warning
policy. We launch a counterattack beforethe missiles hit the United States. That
(10:33):
launch on warning policy. There issome controversy around it, correct, there
is because it's incredibly dangerous, andyou know, people in the national security
analyst world, they debate whether ornot we have an actual policy or whether
it's a suggestion. You can readall about that debate in the notes of
(10:54):
my book. But the bottom lineis the launch on warning policy exis this
meaning the president is going to beasked to literally launch on warning. Once
we are notified of a nuclear missilecoming at the United States, there begins
the process to launch the counter attack. That's a quote from former Secretary of
(11:18):
Defense Bill Perry. He said,we do not wait, period. So
the response we might picture as blowingour adversaries weapons out of the sky,
what actually happens? What is thatresponse? Well, more important is the
fact that we don't really have asystem is that works meaning and that's a
fantasy that a lot of people liveby. They say things like, oh,
(11:41):
my goodness, we have an irondome. Well we don't. What
we have are interceptor missiles, andwe have forty four of them. And
when you consider that Russia has onethy six hundred and some odd ready for
launch nuclear warheads aimed at US.You imagine our forty four interceptors going up
against them, and by the way, they each have a success rate of
about fifty percent. You begin torealize that this is just math and it's
(12:05):
not going to work out in ourfavor. So once it begins, we
assume something will land somewhere. Ifthe bomb lands on the command structure of
the US, like the scenario playedout the beginning of the book, which
is actually very dark, what happens. Does the president go down with the
ship? Is there a plan forthe next steps? In nuclear war?
(12:28):
Unfolds as a sequence of events,and there are a number of decision trees
within that that have variables with consequence. So to your question about what happens
to the commander in chief, Iinterviewed a former director of Secret Service and
many of the members of the SecretService team who would be responsible for moving
(12:48):
the president. They would have avery different idea of a next step.
If there is a nuclear weapon comingat the United States, they would want
to move the president. And atthe same time, you might have the
Stratcom commander insisting that the president waitbefore he leaves so that he can give
the counter attack. And that's whereyou have multiple decision trees unfolding and multiple
(13:09):
problems, and those are delineated innuclear war scenario, taking the reader from
nuclear launch spoiler alert to nuclear winter. And of course for us, I
guess the final question the most importantfor the American public, how long after
launch are we notified? And howso we know it's real? And then
(13:31):
what you know to leave you ona really depressing You know, there is
hope and that comes from the factthat the president can change all of this.
The President has an executive order penand we can move back toward disarmament.
But with that said, the bestquote of that answer comes from an
interview, a set of interviews Idid with Obama's former FEMA director, and
(13:54):
when we were discussing this, youknow, he explained to me that FEMA
verses for nuclear war same as theyrehearse for asteroid strikes, believe it or
not, and these are called lowprobability, high consequence events. And when
Craig Fugate, Obama's former FEMA director, said to me, Annie, in
a nuclear war, there is nosuch thing as population protection planning because everyone
(14:20):
will be dead. I went backto him and said, are you real?
Is that really what you said tome on the record, and he
said yes. And that is aline in the book that should leave readers
with their jaw dropped. The wholebook is stunning Nuclear war a scenario by
Annie Jacobson. Thank you for beingon Get Connected. Thank you so much
(14:41):
for having me. This has beenGet Connected with Nina del Rio on one
o six point seven light Fm.The views and opinions of our guests do
not necessarily reflect the views of thestation. If you missed any part of
our show or want to share it, visit our website for downloads and podcasts
at one oh six to seven lightfmdot com. Thanks for listening. M
Welcome to Get Connected with Nina delRio, a weekly conversation about fitness,
health and happenings in our community onone oh six point seven Light FM.
Good morning, and thanks for listeningto Get Connected. Seventy nine years ago,
the first nuclear weapon was detonated inLos Alamus, New Mexico, on
July sixteenth, nineteen forty five.The test ushered in the age of nuclear
(00:26):
warfare. Since then, in reallife, the US has been closer to
nuclear war many more times than mostAmericans would think. Should it come to
pass, What would happen? Isthere such a thing as being prepared?
Our guest is Annie Jacobson, authorof the Pulitzer Prize finalist in history,
The Pentagon's Brain, New York TimesBestseller's Area fifty one and Operation Paperclip,
(00:47):
and other books. Her new book, The One We'll talk about now is
nuclear war a scenario? Annie Jacobson, thank you for being on Get Connected.
Thank you so much for having me. Nuclear war of it is always
there, but since World War Twothe world has managed to avoid it.
Why this book now, Well,you know, during the previous administration,
(01:11):
when former President Trump was talking about, you know, fire and fury with
North Korea, and there was nuclearrhetoric going on. I a national security
reporter who has spent my career writingabout military and intelligence community operations, all
of which are designed to prevent nuclearWorld War III. I began to really
(01:34):
wonder with all of this rhetoric Ihad never seen coming out of President's mouth
before or read about what would happenif deterrence failed. And I put that
question to the highest ranking national securityadvisors that I could locate that would go
on the record with me, andforty six of them did. And what
(01:57):
I learned was shocking, and theytook me through the reality of what happens
in nuclear war, second by second, minute by minute. I have to
say this book is chilling. Ihaven't finished it because I'm so enthralled in
the details of it. For thisbook, as you said, you spoke
with many nuclear command and control authorities, Leon Panetta, among them the former
(02:21):
Defense Secretary William Perry, scientists suchas Richard L. Garwin. The US
has been preparing for nuclear war,testing, running scenarios, building defenses at
the end of World War II,spending trillions of dollars. Politics aside,
What did they tell you about howit's going. How confident or what are
they confident about as far as preparationsand what are they not. The takeaway
(02:44):
from all of the people I spokewith, either literally or subtextually, you
know, kind of figuratively, wasthat nuclear war is insane. To quote
President Reagan and Gorbachev when they issuedthat joint statement nuclear war not be one
and must never be fought. Andyet we exist with an arsenal of nuclear
(03:08):
weapons on ready for launch status oneyseven hundred and seventy of them, and
the Russians have approximately the same numberpointed at us ready for launch, and
that only speaks of two of thenine nuclear armed nations. And so we
are all literally living at the razor'sedge. And as rhetoric escalates, and
(03:32):
you now have people like President Putin, you know, saying he's not joking
about using WMD. You have theleader of North Korea accusing America of having
a sinister intention to provoke nuclear war. This is profoundly dangerous. And I
believe that all of my sources wenton the record with me because they are
(03:54):
humans before they are necessarily former officials, and they don't want the world to
end in nuclear armageddon. And yetwe have come closer than we would like
to nuclear war at least six times, as you recount in the book.
Can you talk about those almost moments? You know, one of the most
(04:14):
frightening almost moments came to me fromformer Secretary of Defense Bill Perry. And
I reference this one because I liketo get first hand witnesses telling their story,
because then it doesn't get filtered throughthe telephone game. And so Perry
is the person who in nineteen seventynine was on the night watch and would
(04:35):
have had to tell President Carter ifhe needed to launch a nuclear counterattack.
And that is precisely what happened whenPerry was given information not only from the
bunker beneath the Pentagon, but confirmedby the Stratcom bunker, the bunker in
Nebraska, that there were thousands ofRussian missiles on their way. And when
(04:58):
Perry relayed this story to me,despite the fact that it was almost fifty
years ago, I could sense theanxiety in his voice just telling me about
it, because he thought he wasgoing to have to advise the President that
it was time to launch a nuclearcounterattack. Moments later he was notified that
actually it was in a mistake.It was a false alarm that it was
(05:20):
a training tape, an actual wargametraining tape that had been mistakenly inserted into
the machinery at the Pentagon. Andwhat Perry said to me was it looked
real because it was supposed to lookreal. It is true that the US
president has the sole authority to launchAmerica's weapons. They don't have to ask
(05:43):
anyone's permission. What did those expertssay to you about not only the task
of absorbing the situation and their confidencein a presidential response. Back to the
Carter story, there's a blip inthere about someone not wanting to wake him.
I believe you know, the presidentis the most important individual in this
scenario. And I'm not a politicalwriter. I write about otis president of
(06:06):
the United States. But there wasan absolute sentiment from all of my sources
that the president must have as twoleading qualities character qualities. He must have
judgment and he must have cognition.And this is because of his sole presidential
(06:26):
authority. When the time comes tolaunch in response to a strategic weapon coming
at the United States, the presidenthas to make his decision in six minutes,
and he asks no one, notthe Secretary of Defense, not the
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, not Congress. It's his decision alone
to make. He gets advised bythose people, but it's up to him.
(06:48):
And so one must then ask whydon't we have commanders in chief that
are either discussing this issue or weas citizens are asking them to discuss this
issue? Because what could possibly bemore important? And I think you can
figure that answer out to that questionif you read Nuclear War Scenario. Our
(07:12):
guest is Annie Jacobson. Her newbook is Nuclear War Our Scenario. Jacobson's
books have been named best of theYear and most anticipated by outlets including The
Washington Post, USA Today, TheBoston Globe, Apple, and Amazon.
Her book The Pentagon's Brain was aPulitzer Prize finalist in History. You're listening
to Get connected on one six pointseven light FM. I'm Nina del Rio.
(07:34):
As a rule, missile tests areusually announced to neighboring countries, the
exception being North Korea. As yourecount in the book, between January twenty
two and May twenty three, NorthKorea launch test launched over one hundred missiles
capable of reaching the US. Noneof those were announced. Should North Korea
or any country launch an armed nuclearwarhead toward the US, how long before
(07:59):
the world know it's real and knowswhere it's going. Well, you know,
reporting this book was one shocking learning, one shocking bit of information after
the next. As you talk about, and so those one hundred missiles that
were launched by North Korea, manyof which could reach the United States,
many of which were ballistic missiles,none of those were announced. And so
(08:22):
when you when you learn about nuclearcommand and control and how it works,
as I did, and as Irelate, you realize that in the first
one hundred seconds after a ballistic missilelaunch out of North Korea, because we
America has this incredible satellite system inspace parked over North Korea watching for a
(08:43):
launch, we know about that launch, and in a fraction of a second,
And so the one hundred seconds thatfollows is nuclear command and control.
These three bunkers I take readers throughin the United States, beneath the Pentagon,
inside Cheyenne Mountain, beneath Stratcom inNebraska. Those hundred seconds, you've
(09:05):
got all kinds of people scrambling totry and figure out the trajectory of the
missile, and that is an alertsystem that should leave anyone with the hair
raised on the back of the neckbecause it's just far too dangerous. And
what is the math, assuming Ibelieve our closest nuclear foe would be North
(09:28):
Korea, what's the math on howlong it would take for an ICBM to
reach North America. Yes, andthis math is very precise. So from
a launchpad in Russia around Moscow,it would take twenty six minutes and forty
seconds. From a launchpad in NorthKorea thirty three minutes. Keep in mind
(09:50):
that an ICBM cannot be redirected orrecalled. And so when the Defense Department
learns after that one hundred seconds passand they begin to realize the precise trajectory
of the missile, that is,when the counterattack goes into motion. It
has to be confirmed by a secondarysource, which is a system of radars
(10:11):
we have on the ground, andthat happens at about nine minutes of the
scenario. And from there it movesinto the office of the President where the
president is asked to make a counterstrike. That is called launch on warning
policy. We launch a counterattack beforethe missiles hit the United States. That
(10:33):
launch on warning policy. There issome controversy around it, correct, there
is because it's incredibly dangerous, andyou know, people in the national security
analyst world, they debate whether ornot we have an actual policy or whether
it's a suggestion. You can readall about that debate in the notes of
(10:54):
my book. But the bottom lineis the launch on warning policy exis this
meaning the president is going to beasked to literally launch on warning. Once
we are notified of a nuclear missilecoming at the United States, there begins
the process to launch the counter attack. That's a quote from former Secretary of
(11:18):
Defense Bill Perry. He said,we do not wait, period. So
the response we might picture as blowingour adversaries weapons out of the sky,
what actually happens? What is thatresponse? Well, more important is the
fact that we don't really have asystem is that works meaning and that's a
fantasy that a lot of people liveby. They say things like, oh,
(11:41):
my goodness, we have an irondome. Well we don't. What
we have are interceptor missiles, andwe have forty four of them. And
when you consider that Russia has onethy six hundred and some odd ready for
launch nuclear warheads aimed at US.You imagine our forty four interceptors going up
against them, and by the way, they each have a success rate of
about fifty percent. You begin torealize that this is just math and it's
(12:05):
not going to work out in ourfavor. So once it begins, we
assume something will land somewhere. Ifthe bomb lands on the command structure of
the US, like the scenario playedout the beginning of the book, which
is actually very dark, what happens. Does the president go down with the
ship? Is there a plan forthe next steps? In nuclear war?
(12:28):
Unfolds as a sequence of events,and there are a number of decision trees
within that that have variables with consequence. So to your question about what happens
to the commander in chief, Iinterviewed a former director of Secret Service and
many of the members of the SecretService team who would be responsible for moving
(12:48):
the president. They would have avery different idea of a next step.
If there is a nuclear weapon comingat the United States, they would want
to move the president. And atthe same time, you might have the
Stratcom commander insisting that the president waitbefore he leaves so that he can give
the counter attack. And that's whereyou have multiple decision trees unfolding and multiple
(13:09):
problems, and those are delineated innuclear war scenario, taking the reader from
nuclear launch spoiler alert to nuclear winter. And of course for us, I
guess the final question the most importantfor the American public, how long after
launch are we notified? And howso we know it's real? And then
(13:31):
what you know to leave you ona really depressing You know, there is
hope and that comes from the factthat the president can change all of this.
The President has an executive order penand we can move back toward disarmament.
But with that said, the bestquote of that answer comes from an
interview, a set of interviews Idid with Obama's former FEMA director, and
(13:54):
when we were discussing this, youknow, he explained to me that FEMA
verses for nuclear war same as theyrehearse for asteroid strikes, believe it or
not, and these are called lowprobability, high consequence events. And when
Craig Fugate, Obama's former FEMA director, said to me, Annie, in
a nuclear war, there is nosuch thing as population protection planning because everyone
(14:20):
will be dead. I went backto him and said, are you real?
Is that really what you said tome on the record, and he
said yes. And that is aline in the book that should leave readers
with their jaw dropped. The wholebook is stunning Nuclear war a scenario by
Annie Jacobson. Thank you for beingon Get Connected. Thank you so much
(14:41):
for having me. This has beenGet Connected with Nina del Rio on one
o six point seven light Fm.The views and opinions of our guests do
not necessarily reflect the views of thestation. If you missed any part of
our show or want to share it, visit our website for downloads and podcasts
at one oh six to seven lightfmdot com. Thanks for listening. M
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