Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now, Bill Moore, cut down, the shutdown has begun. Something
tells me where to wear that song out? Unfortunately, six
twenty three here in Houston's Morning News. So you know,
people always get worried about a shutdown. Most of us
won't notice it. We don't work for the federal government.
We won't notice it. Well, if you get a Social
Security check, you're still going to get your Social Security check.
There will be some people at the Social Security Administration
(00:22):
that will be furloughed, but these are not the people
processing your payments. But there are other areas that are affected.
It will have an impact on the economy, depending up
on how long it goes. So let's talk to economists
Christian Briggs about this. What is the most immediate impact
if any Christian on the economy based on a government shutdown?
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Well, first, thanks for having me on the show. That's
a great question because a lot of people have been
asking that, especially on the past shutdowns. It's always been
pretty much the same thing consistently, and that is you're
having so many billions of dollars a day that's pulled
from the economy. So, for example, if you furlow fifty
(01:03):
five hundred thousand, let's even say two million people now
after the shutdown is completed or at least some time
starts to move on. And the amount of GDP impact
on this one, because this is one of the largest
tottle governments we've ever had in terms of how many
people are going to be furloughed, is going to be
pretty it's pretty pretty significant. And if it continues, if
(01:24):
the shutdown continues longer than about three to four weeks,
which would be hard to believe, but let's say it does,
the impact could be at least a half a point
to a point off the GDP because it's not just
during the shutdown that the economic loss is seen and felt,
but it takes a while to ramp it back up.
I always use the method of analogy on this. It's
(01:45):
like turning off a nuclear power plant and then all
of a sudden you want to turn it back on.
It takes longer to turn it back on and get
back to where it was than the duration of time
that was shut down. So the impact could be significant
as we continue this, if it goes longer than two
to four weeks, all.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Right, I'm guessing it also has an impact on unemployment
claims because a lot of these people are technically out
of work therefore able to collect unemployment. So that's going
to tax that system to a certain extent. Absolutely.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
In fact, when you look at pass shutdowns or things
of this nature, when the duration is for six, eight,
twelve weeks, what happens is a lot of the individuals,
the workers, whether they're directly at federal government or consulting,
because it can affect not only direct but indirect employees
consultants into the federal government's own agencies. Some of these
(02:35):
people don't have the cash in the bin to withstand
the time that this could take. For example, when you
look at America right now as a whole, about sixty
five percent, maybe as high as seventy by some measures
of people in America are living paycheck to paycheck. Now,
if you're pulling that paycheck for any length of time
(02:56):
and they have little limited or little resources or no
resources whatsoever in the bank to be able to maintain
the bill paying. It's not just the GDP. It's not
just the time off, because sometimes it does work havoc
on your mind, but it's the financial devastation that this
could this could happen and it's happened in the past,
(03:16):
it will happen in the future. If this thing goes
longer than two to four weeks, and I'll say it again,
then you're going to have a significant impact on the
entire economy. And then, of course, like you said, which
is a really good point on the unemployment, that will
skyrocket like that will skyrocket, and some of these people
may never come back to their jobs.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
Economist Christian Briggs is with us here in news radio
seven forty k TRH. I also kind of have to wonder,
Christian about whether or not this leads to a doze
two points. Oh, is this a what what democrats are
risking with the shutdown is that the Trump administration will
go through and say, you know what, we don't need
that thousand people we let go from that department, or
(03:54):
we don't even need that department. Here's a good reason
to shut it down, you know what.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Okay, so that was brought up, that question of yours
is really again a good, good one.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
It was brought up once not long ago.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
That says, Okay, what happens if Doge does make those
cuts where those people go, well, they'll find something in
the private sector in this case, Trump has the hatchet,
like he has the ability to be able to take
some of these things that we consider to be waste
or inefficiency within government and have that opportunity to minimize that.
(04:27):
Or in other words, he can lay people off, he
can fire them, he can definitely furrow them. So there
is value what you're saying. But think about it like this. Also,
this isn't politics at its finest moment. Let's just be
realistic what the Democrats are doing. It's not about them
caring for illegal immigrants and their health care. This is
(04:49):
a pivoting point for them to try to talk to
their base because the Democrats have lost so many of
their I'll call it their fans if you will. Certainly
some of their their polls have shown them that they're
really hurting, especially in some state of local markets and communities.
So this is a ploy to be able to talk
to the illegal community. I would factor of a better definition.
(05:11):
That's just what you want to call it, the illegal
community of people that have come in here illegally, and
to be able to show them that they're still trying
to fight for them.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
In their rights.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
It's not this is a Chuck Schumer led by the
Senate Democrats trying to make very clear that they still
think that they hold power. The problem is is that
in the crosshairs of all of this problems that they
go back and forth and complain about, these Democrats, is
that these good people, there's great people that work in
the federal government, and they're going to get they're going
to get hurt.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
And they're going to remember who did this to them too,
aren't they. That's the economists. We got to run. But
thank you so much, sir, good to talk to the economists.
Christian Briggs
Now, Bill Moore, cut down, the shutdown has begun. Something
tells me where to wear that song out? Unfortunately, six
twenty three here in Houston's Morning News. So you know,
people always get worried about a shutdown. Most of us
won't notice it. We don't work for the federal government.
We won't notice it. Well, if you get a Social
Security check, you're still going to get your Social Security check.
There will be some people at the Social Security Administration
(00:22):
that will be furloughed, but these are not the people
processing your payments. But there are other areas that are affected.
It will have an impact on the economy, depending up
on how long it goes. So let's talk to economists
Christian Briggs about this. What is the most immediate impact
if any Christian on the economy based on a government shutdown?
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Well, first, thanks for having me on the show. That's
a great question because a lot of people have been
asking that, especially on the past shutdowns. It's always been
pretty much the same thing consistently, and that is you're
having so many billions of dollars a day that's pulled
from the economy. So, for example, if you furlow fifty
(01:03):
five hundred thousand, let's even say two million people now
after the shutdown is completed or at least some time
starts to move on. And the amount of GDP impact
on this one, because this is one of the largest
tottle governments we've ever had in terms of how many
people are going to be furloughed, is going to be
pretty it's pretty pretty significant. And if it continues, if
(01:24):
the shutdown continues longer than about three to four weeks,
which would be hard to believe, but let's say it does,
the impact could be at least a half a point
to a point off the GDP because it's not just
during the shutdown that the economic loss is seen and felt,
but it takes a while to ramp it back up.
I always use the method of analogy on this. It's
(01:45):
like turning off a nuclear power plant and then all
of a sudden you want to turn it back on.
It takes longer to turn it back on and get
back to where it was than the duration of time
that was shut down. So the impact could be significant
as we continue this, if it goes longer than two
to four weeks, all.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Right, I'm guessing it also has an impact on unemployment
claims because a lot of these people are technically out
of work therefore able to collect unemployment. So that's going
to tax that system to a certain extent. Absolutely.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
In fact, when you look at pass shutdowns or things
of this nature, when the duration is for six, eight,
twelve weeks, what happens is a lot of the individuals,
the workers, whether they're directly at federal government or consulting,
because it can affect not only direct but indirect employees
consultants into the federal government's own agencies. Some of these
(02:35):
people don't have the cash in the bin to withstand
the time that this could take. For example, when you
look at America right now as a whole, about sixty
five percent, maybe as high as seventy by some measures
of people in America are living paycheck to paycheck. Now,
if you're pulling that paycheck for any length of time
(02:56):
and they have little limited or little resources or no
resources whatsoever in the bank to be able to maintain
the bill paying. It's not just the GDP. It's not
just the time off, because sometimes it does work havoc
on your mind, but it's the financial devastation that this
could this could happen and it's happened in the past,
(03:16):
it will happen in the future. If this thing goes
longer than two to four weeks, and I'll say it again,
then you're going to have a significant impact on the
entire economy. And then, of course, like you said, which
is a really good point on the unemployment, that will
skyrocket like that will skyrocket, and some of these people
may never come back to their jobs.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
Economist Christian Briggs is with us here in news radio
seven forty k TRH. I also kind of have to wonder,
Christian about whether or not this leads to a doze
two points. Oh, is this a what what democrats are
risking with the shutdown is that the Trump administration will
go through and say, you know what, we don't need
that thousand people we let go from that department, or
(03:54):
we don't even need that department. Here's a good reason
to shut it down, you know what.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Okay, so that was brought up, that question of yours
is really again a good, good one.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
It was brought up once not long ago.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
That says, Okay, what happens if Doge does make those
cuts where those people go, well, they'll find something in
the private sector in this case, Trump has the hatchet,
like he has the ability to be able to take
some of these things that we consider to be waste
or inefficiency within government and have that opportunity to minimize that.
(04:27):
Or in other words, he can lay people off, he
can fire them, he can definitely furrow them. So there
is value what you're saying. But think about it like this. Also,
this isn't politics at its finest moment. Let's just be
realistic what the Democrats are doing. It's not about them
caring for illegal immigrants and their health care. This is
(04:49):
a pivoting point for them to try to talk to
their base because the Democrats have lost so many of
their I'll call it their fans if you will. Certainly
some of their their polls have shown them that they're
really hurting, especially in some state of local markets and communities.
So this is a ploy to be able to talk
to the illegal community. I would factor of a better definition.
(05:11):
That's just what you want to call it, the illegal
community of people that have come in here illegally, and
to be able to show them that they're still trying
to fight for them.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
In their rights.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
It's not this is a Chuck Schumer led by the
Senate Democrats trying to make very clear that they still
think that they hold power. The problem is is that
in the crosshairs of all of this problems that they
go back and forth and complain about, these Democrats, is
that these good people, there's great people that work in
the federal government, and they're going to get they're going
to get hurt.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
And they're going to remember who did this to them too,
aren't they. That's the economists. We got to run. But
thank you so much, sir, good to talk to the economists.
Christian Briggs
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