Mark Jones - Rice University Professor Joins Houston's Morning News

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Okay, interesting piece of newsmacks. Five Senate races most likely
to flip in the twenty twenty six power battle joining
us now Mark Jones. He is a polysci professor at
Rice Professor. We could do the entire segment on Cornyan
and Paxton, but I want to get to some of
the other ones as well, But give me your give
me your thumbnail sketch. Where do we stand now on

(00:20):
the Texas race?

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Well, on the Texas race, John Cornyn is still trailing
Ken Paxton the polls, but Republicans are concerned that if
Paxson gets the nomination, he's vulnerable in November of twenty
twenty six, either against Democrat Colin Allred or one of
the more progressive Democrat who may be going into a
primer with Allreds Which is better o' work, James Talerico

(00:44):
or Joaquin Castro.

Speaker 1 (00:46):
Okay, and what do you think the likelihood is by
the way, that Paxton beats Corny in Corny's got a
lot of.

Speaker 2 (00:51):
Money, Corner has a lot of money. But what really
matters is support among the one to two million people
who will vote in the Republican prime Mary and Paxton
at least right now still has it. There's always the
possibility that we get a wild card candidate, someone like
Congressman Wesley Hunt who steps in who's seen as more
conservative than Cornyon, but providing Republicans with the better prospect

(01:14):
of victory in twenty twenty sixth than Taxi. But that
remains to be seen, Professor.

Speaker 1 (01:19):
Let's move over to Georgia. Now, John Ossoff is up
for reelection. He is a very vulnerable Democrat in the Senate,
but the GOP looks like they can't find a notable
name to run against him.

Speaker 2 (01:30):
What are your thoughts, Well, they're Republicans are really hoping
that Governor Brian Kemp would run against Osoff. That's not
going to be the case. And there's the possibility that
a very conservative, perhaps two conservative for Georgia Republican wins
the primary, in which case Asoff, while not being a
strong candidate, could win reelection.

Speaker 1 (01:50):
Let's go to North Carolina. Now, this is another big one.
Former Governor Roy Cooper is a hugely successful statewide candidate.
He's run six statewide elections or campaigns and has won
every single time. And on the conservative Republican side, Laura Trump.
She carries the Trump name. She of course is the
daughter in law of President Trump. How do you how

(02:12):
do you size that race?

Speaker 2 (02:14):
That's one where the current Senator Tom Tillis is that
has been at odds with President Trump and then decided
effectively to not run for reelection after opposing the Big
Beautiful Bill. That's one that I think Democrats are most
optimistic about picking up. It's the one Republican seat that's
by far most vulnerable.

Speaker 1 (02:34):
And what do you think of Laura Trump's candidacy though?

Speaker 2 (02:39):
That would not be I mean, that would not be
a good prospect for Republicans if their goal is to
hold on to North Carolina.

Speaker 1 (02:47):
Really interesting, Ted Budd called her. Ted Budd called her
very viable, you know, being a native North Carolinian and
and suggested that obviously the Trump endorsement and the Trump
name would certainly ca area along way.

Speaker 2 (03:01):
Well, the Trump endorsement certainly a lock down. The Republican
primary for winning the general election is a completely different matter.

Speaker 1 (03:09):
No doubt about that. What about Susan Collins, who of
course is always at odds with you know, conservatives. She's
the ultimate rhino as far as Republicans are concerned. She's
defending her seat, and she's got a battle on her hands.
What do you what do you? What do you make
of the main new race?

Speaker 2 (03:26):
Well in Maine is a blue state, you know, maybe
light blue, but never pink, and Susan Collins, as being
a more modern Republican, has been able to against all odds,
retain that seat for Republicans, but is getting increasingly difficult
for After the North Carolina seat, the main seat is

(03:47):
seen as the most vulnerable one for Republicans. The good
news for Republicans, though, is that they have a nice
map in that they have a fifty three to fortyes
of a majority, and for Democrats they need to have
a net gain. Of course, she overall, so even if
Republicans lose Maine in North Carolina, they still have two
seats to spare, and.

Speaker 1 (04:06):
One more is Michigan's retiring Senator Gary Peters is leaving.
So that opens it up. Why do you have any
idea on which direction, which party that might lean toward?

Speaker 2 (04:19):
Well, Michigan is the seat that Republicans are most optimistic
about flipping. With Peters retiring and President Trump being popular
in Michigan, that's one where they're really hoping to flip it.
So even if they would lose North Carolina, Maine, and
perhaps you know, Ohio or Texas in those sort of
a worst case scenario, their hope is Michigan would be

(04:41):
one seat that they could pick up and prevent Democrats
from taking control of the US Senate for the final
two years of Donald Trump's term in office.

Speaker 1 (04:49):
Five huge races could determine the majority in the Senate. Obviously,
it's a very difficult thing for the incumbent majority to
keep traditionally after you change seats, and there are change
parties in the White House. So history is on the
Democrat side here, and these five races are going to
go a long way toward determining how that plays out.
Mark Jones, political science professor at Rice University. Professor, thank

(05:12):
you for the analysis. We appreciate it.

Speaker 2 (05:14):
No, that's my pleasure. Thank you.