Maxim Lott - Founder / electionbettingodds.com Joins Houston's Morning News

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Six, twenty two, or time here in Houston's Morning News
that love hate relationship. Trump becoming more popular in the
face of the media onslaught against him. And I have
to wonder too, And I can't wait to ask our
nexoguest Maxim Lott, he's the founder of election beetting odds
dot com about this. President Biden yesterday called Trump supporters garbage.
Now do you think that really upset anybody? I think

(00:22):
when he said that, I said, oh, okay, well I
can't I can't wait. I guess if I if I'm garbage,
I could be the garbage man. I could take out
the trash on election Day and send it to the landfill. Maxim, Hey,
great to be here with you.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
So I have this election betting odds dot com site
and it shows Trump leading. It shows these statements like
Biden calling people garbage. Those aren't moving the radar at
this point, kind of like you are suggesting, it's, you know,
the big picture things like inflation, crime, migration, those have
just sunk in and they have Trump in the lead.

Speaker 3 (01:01):
Yeah, I would think that, you know, the rhetoric that
we're getting from the Democrats and from the left is
what a hateful person Donald Trump is, and how he's
going to arrest everybody and imprison everybody and do The
problem is he's got a four year record of not
doing any of those things, and it's I wonder how
that reflects in the betting.

Speaker 2 (01:22):
Yeah, that's a good question, I think. You know, it's
hard to tell from the betting exactly why people are
doing what they're doing. What we can see is that
Trump has shifted over the last month from having a
forty five percent chance of winning so slightly favored to lose,
to a sixty two percent So over the last month.

(01:44):
Something has changed. It might be the ads that Trump
is running in battleground states which talk about Harris's previous
radical record, you know, whether it's supporting government funded sex
change operations or a record on the border. Maybe those
are sinking in. But for whatever reason, both the polls
and the betting odds have been moving in Trump's favor

(02:04):
over the last month.

Speaker 1 (02:05):
Let me let me ask you about the betting odds.
For example, Arizona just went from you know, from a
toss up toss up to leaning Republican. Do you believe
that the betting the election betting odds move at a
quicker pace than the polls do. In other words, the
polls are lagging behind what we're already seeing.

Speaker 2 (02:25):
As far as the election betting, Yeah, the polls do.
The betting does move at a quicker pace. I just
grasped this out the other day. If you compare it
to the election models that are based on poles, the
graph has looked the same over the last month, but
the betting odds have moved ten days faster than the polls.
So basically, they're able to actually look at things before

(02:48):
the polls, whether it's bad statements or just the general
sentimental or whether Trump is going on the Rogan Show,
all these things and predict the movement to the polls.
At least the last month, that has been the case.
And you know it's it's smart people betting on this stuff.
It's like a stock market for politicians. That's the best

(03:08):
way to think about it. And in general it's pretty accurate.
People when they put their money on the line, they
think harder about who's actually going to win, how soon does.

Speaker 3 (03:16):
It pay out? I mean, because we don't know that
the results will pay out on election night, and does
it go to the first person who's called, you get
your money immediately. And what happens if it goes to
court and all of a sudden the election is reversed.
What if you don't know until who gets inaugurated? How
does that work?

Speaker 2 (03:33):
Yeah? Each betting market, you know, will make their own
discretion that in this but some of them, for example,
say whoever is there at inauguration day will pay that
out or the or you know, if every news station
calls a winner. So those are some of the ways

(03:53):
they might resolve it.

Speaker 1 (03:55):
Okay, And just out of curiosity, Maxim, can you do
are your odds overall odds coast to coast odds or
can you do it state by state by state? And
if so, what are the odds in the battleground states
that we know are going to be deciding this election.

Speaker 2 (04:11):
Yeah, so it's sixty two percent chance for Trump to
win overall in each state he is winning right now,
Michigan is the thinnest. It's fifty three percent. Basically, a
coin talks about whether Trump wins in the southern states
like Georgia and North Carolina. They have Trumpet about seventy percent,
Arizona again seventy percent. They're looking at the early vote

(04:32):
returns and where those are coming from in those states. Also,
Nevada is about two thirds for Trump. Again, that's early
vote northern states. Yeah, Pennsylvania is like sixty percent, Wisconsin's
like fifty five percent. So those are the closer states.
In theory, off Harris wins those three northern states, the Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,

(04:53):
and Michigan, then she would win. So she just needs
those three. Those are the coast to ones. That's kind
of her hurt its path to a narrow bin.

Speaker 1 (05:02):
Interesting at college. Interesting stuff, Maxim, thanks for joining us.
That's the founder of election betting odds dot com. Maxim
laud It is six twenty seven