Richard Rosso, Certified Financial Planner Joins Houston Morning News, June 27th, 2024

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Everything can change on Wall Street inthe New York minute, it hasn't really
changed much. Join us to talkabout that, Richard Rosso, certified Financial
planner. I know you're not aprognosticator, but how do you explain this
long, long stretch without two percentsell off? Well, Jimmy, you
got to keep in mind there's thisromance of AI that has really commandeered the

(00:24):
market. So the narrative itself isvery strong. So you're looking at big
productivity gains that the market's pricing inupfront. Remember markets look ahead, price
things in upfront, right, Sothat has been one of the biggest stories
that you've had. Now, theother story has been the labor market and
the consumer. But here's the problem. We had in excess savings. Two

(00:49):
trillion dollars accumulated during the COVID nineteenpanic, and the Federal Reserve Bank of
San Francisco came out with a reportand said these excess savings have been fully
deleted as of March, which meansthe economy itself is slowing down, not
enough to get the market's attention.The market's focused on AI, and the

(01:11):
market's focused on the FED. It'sa different world than the world we live
in every day. It couples upduring disasters, absolutely true, or when
some other narrative comes into the windshieldfor the market to take a look at.
But there are stories and narratives thatdrive markets that completely confound us as
people going about our day. Yeah, because it's not really people who have

(01:34):
much say so over what happens.It's not really a market a marketplace anymore
where products and you know, isall based on the big guys and how
they foresee and where they think they'regoing to make the money. And even
people who sell short, who betthat some things aren't going to improve,
they make money by selling short.I mean, is just one big gambling

(01:57):
den. It's because I'm a verymuch share a momentum game. In other
words, if you own some reallyboring stock that paid you or that pays
you with dividend, it's been dependablethat stock really hasn't done well this year,
or it's sort of flat giving youyour dividend. But if you own
one of the sexy seven, right, you own the Microsoft's and the Unvidias,

(02:19):
you've done well. And you haveto keep in mind the top ten
percent of Americans hold ninety three percentof all stocks. Yes, we have
to find contribution plans for one caseand such, but for the most part,
the market, the market world isn'tthe real world. That's not what
we face every day. And rightnow, these narratives are very strong,

(02:39):
and election years, regardless of whowins, tend to be strong, so
you've got a good seasonal win behindyou. But yeah, it's it's confounding.
But when I go into my office, I look at the end window
at I ten, and I putthis invisible line between me and that,
and I go into the world ofthe computer and the market, and I
separate them out, because that's howyou have to look at it, and

(03:01):
most of us can't do it.Is there any one thing potentially on the
horizon that could upset the apple cart, whether you're talking about affordability and in
housing, the inflation factor, anythingout there that could make all this kind
of head in the opposite direction.The FED doesn't do the whim of the
market. The Fed. Remember Januarywas six or seven rate cuts, which

(03:22):
was really ridiculous. Now we're downto maybe one rate cut. So the
anticipation if the FED comes around andinflation heats up again and not the inflation
that we deal with, the rateof change of inflation that we see that
the markets worry about. If thatstarts to heat up again, like Friday,
we have a big report, wehave the PCE coming out. If

(03:43):
inflation heads up and the Fed mightpostpone a rate cut or oh my gosh,
a rate hike, that would pullthe attention the consumer that's faltering from
a consumer spending perspective. I mean, look at all of Garden's numbers.
Look at red lobster. Okay,working class Americans are having a really rough
time and their excess savings are gone. Sooner or later, that will catch

(04:06):
the attention of the market. Mythought is, whoever's president next year is
going to have their hands full witha very volatile market and a stagnating economy.
Oh well, then maybe we needa president who really understands economics and
has a way of running whatever iswithin the limit of the law. Suggesting

(04:26):
maybe we need a businessman in there, all right, business man off,
Yeah, Richard Rosso Always a pleasure, sir, Thank you appreciate it.
Survey financial planner Richard Rousso