Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Seven, twenty two is their time here in Houston's borning
news all right, As they said, seeing in a data
analyst is predicting a major Trump victory if the polls
are as wrong as they were in the last two elections.
Robert Cahley joins us. He's a chief pollster and founder
of the Defalger Group. I guess that's assuming that the
polls were way off, and they were certainly in twenty
(00:21):
sixteen they were way way off. Robert, Why do you
think they were so far off? Hello, I don't think
he can hear me.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
I think I'm sorry. I think the finding is they
don't measure the Trump vote very well. You know, we're
talking about there being a hidden vote. I'm a big
believer in that. We found that in twenty sixteen that
people who were just you know, for whatever reason, especially
when speaking to a live person, felt like they didn't
(00:55):
want to say there for Trump because they didn't want
to be judged by that live person at asking them
the questions. So that was part of it, is that
it's hard, you know, to get answer that out of them.
In twenty twenty.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
It was quite as bad, but it still was a
factor of that that they're hard to poll, they're suspicious.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
And they already gotten the sense that they were going
to There were you know, there were some kind of
a you know, problems with everything that was coming out
about you know, Russian disinformation, like saying the laptop and
all that kind of stuff. People were just still kind
of yeah, it's you're about saying they were prompted, and
you have to unsay these people are harder to pull it.
(01:42):
They also were there were a lot of people who
voted irregularly. We picked that up in twenty sixteen the primaries,
and so we were able to integrate those type of
people who voted very sporadically into we developed what they
look like. You're like fifty seven characteristics. I mean one
(02:03):
of them was a fishing license of all things, and
like if you shared thirty of them, we said you're
a potential voter even though you're not a regular motor.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
So you get lumped into a group.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
Yeah, right, Because there's so many different little factors that
made up these people who just i mean they were
coming out of the woodwork on the Primaries that didn't
know how to use the machine or anything, hadn't but
to ten fifteen years, so that was part of it,
and in twenty twenty was that way too.
Speaker 4 (02:30):
I would argue that nobody wants to have the FBI
knocking on their door taking part in all of their
Internet communications. I mean, this Justice Department is still hunting
down people who had anything. They didn't even have to
be in DC. But if they were even in the
area of Washington, DC on January sixth, they're still at risk.
(02:53):
So why would they tell somebody that they don't know
how they're going to vote?
Speaker 2 (02:59):
And that's w I was getting to twenty twenty four.
It is not shame. It is not you know, it's
feared that they are. When we call them, they say
things like who you call them? Who's is four? What
are you doing with this information? And they're very nervous
because again, like you said, they don't want to be
(03:21):
on the list. I mean, they've heard the stories people
that took ATM withdrawals in DC that happened to be
up there at the time of January sixth, it weren't
anywhere near the capital all being investiga. I mean, it's
like they're nervous and they don't know. You know how
when you talk to a really strong gun rights person
(03:42):
and they say that they oppose gun registration because the
only reason the register guns is when they decided to
take them to have a list where they are. That's
how people feel about this.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
All right, Robert, this Robert, we're just about out of time.
I want to get to this before we let you go, though,
And that is based on all what do you think
happens with this election? What are the numbers telling you?
Speaker 2 (04:04):
Well, we had some little devices we used to have
measure and one of the public ones we talked about
is asking who your neighbors are going to vote for.
We are seeing bigger numbers. Our biggest number in sixteen
with Ohio at eight percent. We have multiple battleground states
that are over ten percent for Trump. Has said a
(04:27):
neighbors vote for Trump. And that is the device that
lets people suggest how they're really going to vote without
having to tell you.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
On the phone.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Wow. Okay, that's amazing. Can't wait to see if.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
That the case may be right on CNN.
Speaker 1 (04:40):
All right, all right, Robert, thank you appreciate your time.
Robert Khley, chief bolster and founder of the Drafalger Group
Seven, twenty two is their time here in Houston's borning
news all right, As they said, seeing in a data
analyst is predicting a major Trump victory if the polls
are as wrong as they were in the last two elections.
Robert Cahley joins us. He's a chief pollster and founder
of the Defalger Group. I guess that's assuming that the
polls were way off, and they were certainly in twenty
(00:21):
sixteen they were way way off. Robert, Why do you
think they were so far off? Hello, I don't think
he can hear me.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
I think I'm sorry. I think the finding is they
don't measure the Trump vote very well. You know, we're
talking about there being a hidden vote. I'm a big
believer in that. We found that in twenty sixteen that
people who were just you know, for whatever reason, especially
when speaking to a live person, felt like they didn't
(00:55):
want to say there for Trump because they didn't want
to be judged by that live person at asking them
the questions. So that was part of it, is that
it's hard, you know, to get answer that out of them.
In twenty twenty.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
It was quite as bad, but it still was a
factor of that that they're hard to poll, they're suspicious.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
And they already gotten the sense that they were going
to There were you know, there were some kind of
a you know, problems with everything that was coming out
about you know, Russian disinformation, like saying the laptop and
all that kind of stuff. People were just still kind
of yeah, it's you're about saying they were prompted, and
you have to unsay these people are harder to pull it.
(01:42):
They also were there were a lot of people who
voted irregularly. We picked that up in twenty sixteen the primaries,
and so we were able to integrate those type of
people who voted very sporadically into we developed what they
look like. You're like fifty seven characteristics. I mean one
(02:03):
of them was a fishing license of all things, and
like if you shared thirty of them, we said you're
a potential voter even though you're not a regular motor.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
So you get lumped into a group.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
Yeah, right, Because there's so many different little factors that
made up these people who just i mean they were
coming out of the woodwork on the Primaries that didn't
know how to use the machine or anything, hadn't but
to ten fifteen years, so that was part of it,
and in twenty twenty was that way too.
Speaker 4 (02:30):
I would argue that nobody wants to have the FBI
knocking on their door taking part in all of their
Internet communications. I mean, this Justice Department is still hunting
down people who had anything. They didn't even have to
be in DC. But if they were even in the
area of Washington, DC on January sixth, they're still at risk.
(02:53):
So why would they tell somebody that they don't know
how they're going to vote?
Speaker 2 (02:59):
And that's w I was getting to twenty twenty four.
It is not shame. It is not you know, it's
feared that they are. When we call them, they say
things like who you call them? Who's is four? What
are you doing with this information? And they're very nervous
because again, like you said, they don't want to be
(03:21):
on the list. I mean, they've heard the stories people
that took ATM withdrawals in DC that happened to be
up there at the time of January sixth, it weren't
anywhere near the capital all being investiga. I mean, it's
like they're nervous and they don't know. You know how
when you talk to a really strong gun rights person
(03:42):
and they say that they oppose gun registration because the
only reason the register guns is when they decided to
take them to have a list where they are. That's
how people feel about this.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
All right, Robert, this Robert, we're just about out of time.
I want to get to this before we let you go, though,
And that is based on all what do you think
happens with this election? What are the numbers telling you?
Speaker 2 (04:04):
Well, we had some little devices we used to have
measure and one of the public ones we talked about
is asking who your neighbors are going to vote for.
We are seeing bigger numbers. Our biggest number in sixteen
with Ohio at eight percent. We have multiple battleground states
that are over ten percent for Trump. Has said a
(04:27):
neighbors vote for Trump. And that is the device that
lets people suggest how they're really going to vote without
having to tell you.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
On the phone.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Wow. Okay, that's amazing. Can't wait to see if.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
That the case may be right on CNN.
Speaker 1 (04:40):
All right, all right, Robert, thank you appreciate your time.
Robert Khley, chief bolster and founder of the Drafalger Group
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