Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Yeah, but is there a seventy percent chances are that
the Democrats retake the House? Led Davidio joined those political andlists.
Why do you think they base this on Ladd?
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Hey, good morning. Yeah. They're basing this really on two factors.
First and foremost, the fact that the House of Represents
is so closely divided, I mean, is it is neck
and neck fifty to fifty at this point. But also
if you look at each of the races, there's very
few races that could be considered legitimate toss ups in
which there's no strong lean either Democrat or Republican. And
(00:35):
we're looking at about twenty five seats, and so the
difference between those is, you know, which one of those
are districts that were won by Biden in twenty twenty
Which are those that are that look like to lean
towards Trump in twenty twenty four. And so when you
really dive into it, you can see that there's probably
going to be a pretty sharp delineation between the two
(00:57):
and it's probably be still closer to fifty to fifty.
But what they're thinking is a lot of these districts
are more in areas and states that Biden one districts
at Biden won and it's going to be harder for
Trump to flip those. So that's why they're saying this
seventy percent. But if you look at a lot of
other polsters, a lot of other analysts, they're pretty much
saying something almost opposite, where it could be a split
(01:20):
or it could be fifty to fifty. Either way, it's
looking like either way it's going to end up very close.
But my thinking is that Republicans are going to pull
out a very close win in the House.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
Very close when and can you get how many seats
you're thinking.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Right now, we're looking at probably between two hundred and
eighteen and two hundred and twenty seats. It's going to
be close either way, simply because the margins are just
so tight right now. Republicans had some challenges in the
last session of Congress where they lost a couple of
seats of people resigning, people being pushed out of office,
(02:00):
and several of those seats went flipped over to the Democrats.
So a seat that was held by a Republican now
is being held by an Newcomban Democrat, you know, facing
reelection or facing election for the first time, and that
really affects the political calculus.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
Yeah, what are we thinking about the Senate?
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Led Senate looks much more strong to be a strong Republican.
It's very likely that the Senate will flip from Democrat
control to Republican control. The numbers are looking very strong there.
The challengers to some of those Democrat in comments in
various states are doing exceptionally well. The numbers have really
(02:38):
started to trend upwards as we approach election day. It's
looking like a very strong knife for Republicans in the
Senate on election night.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
Okay, this may be out of leftfield for you, but
Kamala Harris coming to Houston, Texas to campaign rather than
being in a battleground state. What does that indicator to
you tonight?
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Yeah? I think that is an attempt to really try
to boost her perception of performing well by getting some
star power out there. She's not going, as you said, Sharre,
She's not going to battleground states to really motivate voters
who can affect the outcome of the race. She's trying
as hard as she can to look for the biggest
(03:18):
crowd that she can get, and she knows that, you know, Houston,
Texas is in the heart of a very blue county,
and so she's hoping to take advantage of that opportunity.
She looks really bad optically this past few weeks. She's
had a few bad events. Certainly the CNN town hall
was a disaster for her.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
She's looking to.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
Transform that with a friendly crowd and hopefully try to
affect the perception of her race. Right now, she's underwater.
She knows it all right.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Well, and Colin all Right, of course, is running for
Ted Cruz's seat. Do you think the Democrats have an
idea that they think that somehow she can help his
chances of beating Ted Cruz because I don't see her
doing anything but hurting him.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
No, every every time, every time she's mentioned in the
same breath with Colin Albread, she los, He loses voters there.
It's it's really just a naked effort to try to
get the voters who are anti Ted Cruz, anti Donald Trump,
unified in their hatred of the Republican Party, not necessarily
(04:23):
motivated to mote to support Colin Albread or Kamala Harris
because they believe that they can win, but really just
unifying around antipathy and and hatred and really it's just
it's just trying to get that friendly crowd that stay
nought will will motivate them.
Speaker 1 (04:40):
Okay, Glad, thanks as always appreciate it. Political analyst Glad
Davidia
Yeah, but is there a seventy percent chances are that
the Democrats retake the House? Led Davidio joined those political andlists.
Why do you think they base this on Ladd?
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Hey, good morning. Yeah. They're basing this really on two factors.
First and foremost, the fact that the House of Represents
is so closely divided, I mean, is it is neck
and neck fifty to fifty at this point. But also
if you look at each of the races, there's very
few races that could be considered legitimate toss ups in
which there's no strong lean either Democrat or Republican. And
(00:35):
we're looking at about twenty five seats, and so the
difference between those is, you know, which one of those
are districts that were won by Biden in twenty twenty
Which are those that are that look like to lean
towards Trump in twenty twenty four. And so when you
really dive into it, you can see that there's probably
going to be a pretty sharp delineation between the two
(00:57):
and it's probably be still closer to fifty to fifty.
But what they're thinking is a lot of these districts
are more in areas and states that Biden one districts
at Biden won and it's going to be harder for
Trump to flip those. So that's why they're saying this
seventy percent. But if you look at a lot of
other polsters, a lot of other analysts, they're pretty much
saying something almost opposite, where it could be a split
(01:20):
or it could be fifty to fifty. Either way, it's
looking like either way it's going to end up very close.
But my thinking is that Republicans are going to pull
out a very close win in the House.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
Very close when and can you get how many seats
you're thinking.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Right now, we're looking at probably between two hundred and
eighteen and two hundred and twenty seats. It's going to
be close either way, simply because the margins are just
so tight right now. Republicans had some challenges in the
last session of Congress where they lost a couple of
seats of people resigning, people being pushed out of office,
(02:00):
and several of those seats went flipped over to the Democrats.
So a seat that was held by a Republican now
is being held by an Newcomban Democrat, you know, facing
reelection or facing election for the first time, and that
really affects the political calculus.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
Yeah, what are we thinking about the Senate?
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Led Senate looks much more strong to be a strong Republican.
It's very likely that the Senate will flip from Democrat
control to Republican control. The numbers are looking very strong there.
The challengers to some of those Democrat in comments in
various states are doing exceptionally well. The numbers have really
(02:38):
started to trend upwards as we approach election day. It's
looking like a very strong knife for Republicans in the
Senate on election night.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
Okay, this may be out of leftfield for you, but
Kamala Harris coming to Houston, Texas to campaign rather than
being in a battleground state. What does that indicator to
you tonight?
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Yeah? I think that is an attempt to really try
to boost her perception of performing well by getting some
star power out there. She's not going, as you said, Sharre,
She's not going to battleground states to really motivate voters
who can affect the outcome of the race. She's trying
as hard as she can to look for the biggest
(03:18):
crowd that she can get, and she knows that, you know, Houston,
Texas is in the heart of a very blue county,
and so she's hoping to take advantage of that opportunity.
She looks really bad optically this past few weeks. She's
had a few bad events. Certainly the CNN town hall
was a disaster for her.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
She's looking to.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
Transform that with a friendly crowd and hopefully try to
affect the perception of her race. Right now, she's underwater.
She knows it all right.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Well, and Colin all Right, of course, is running for
Ted Cruz's seat. Do you think the Democrats have an
idea that they think that somehow she can help his
chances of beating Ted Cruz because I don't see her
doing anything but hurting him.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
No, every every time, every time she's mentioned in the
same breath with Colin Albread, she los, He loses voters there.
It's it's really just a naked effort to try to
get the voters who are anti Ted Cruz, anti Donald Trump,
unified in their hatred of the Republican Party, not necessarily
(04:23):
motivated to mote to support Colin Albread or Kamala Harris
because they believe that they can win, but really just
unifying around antipathy and and hatred and really it's just
it's just trying to get that friendly crowd that stay
nought will will motivate them.
Speaker 1 (04:40):
Okay, Glad, thanks as always appreciate it. Political analyst Glad
Davidia
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