Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to the nationally syndicated Energy Mix Radio Show produced
by the Energy Network Media Group. The Energy Mix Radio
Show will give you an inside look at the energy
industry and how it affects you by talking with industry leaders, experts,
and government officials on the Energy Mix Radio Show.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
And welcome to the Energy Mix Radio Show. Today. I'm
excited to have Robert Raypier, the editor in chief of
Show magazine and an esteemed energy strategist, join me today
for our end of the year's show. Robert, you have
extensive experience in the energy sector and you have joined
me numerous times. You're also a host rarely on the
(00:38):
Energy Mix Radio Show, so I wanted to bring you
on as we close out this year and talk a
little bit about what has happened in twenty twenty four
some of the predictions that you had wrote about in Forbes.
But first I'd like to talk to you a little
(00:59):
bit about this latest merger and acquisition with One Oak
acquiring Magellan. How big do you think this is on
a scale of Is this a pretty large acquisition in
the energy sector.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
Yeah. So, in fact, one of my investment recommendations that
Investing Daily was Magellan so we have been in Magellan
for a long time, so we followed this pretty closely.
It's a pretty major acquisition. I mean there's a there.
Magellan was a big player in midstream and that is
for those who don't know, that's the companies that transport
(01:35):
oil and gas from the fields to downstream to refineries
and so forth, so popline companies basically, and Magellan was
a master rumit of partnership. There's not a lot of
those left because they keep getting acquired, and so it
makes one Oak bigger. And I know you recently were
at a Reuters Live event on energy and you caught
(01:55):
up with one Oak CEO, Pierce Norton, and he talked
to you about that acquisition. Can you share what he
said to.
Speaker 4 (02:00):
You about it?
Speaker 2 (02:02):
Well, I will let out let our listeners hear what
he had to say, but I just you know, I
will tell you I was very impressed with how strategic
Pier Snorton is and how he went and talked to
his board members and of course his employees and got
them on board with these acquisitions. There's a lot of
strategic pillars or stages that he had to go through,
(02:25):
and he kind of talked to me about that. But
the thing that I really enjoyed the most is when
he was looking he said, you know, Kim, it takes
about one hundred million dollars a year to produce a
one point five billion with Magellan. So we wanted a
cash cow and we got one. So Callum, can you
play pier snorton what he was telling me when I
(02:46):
got to speak with him one on one at Reuter's
Life event.
Speaker 4 (02:50):
You can fall in love with deals just because you can,
just because you can do something, or somebody come to
you and said I'll sell this to you. So we
felt like that we need to be a very intentional
discipline about what it is that we were doing. And
so we create the criteria, we stick to that criteria,
and if it doesn't meet it, we don't even I mean,
(03:11):
we may take a glance at it, but we don't
spend much time on it. And so that's the way
we got Magellan. So when you looked at our assets,
we had two thirds of our earnings. We're coming out
of North Dakota because we have so many assets out there,
and so we decided that, you know, so free of
(03:32):
the criteria we had was we got to diversify and
if we can, we need to put we need to
get into a completely new platform. And so that's when
when we started looking at Magellan and they happened to
be across street from us, but you know, we started
living at that saying, well, they ever find products. So
(03:54):
when the crude oil price is down in the North
Dakota area, the street would look at it and say, well,
that means that they're not going to drill. They're not
going to drill. It affects the volume. One oak is
a volume times rate business. So therefore true price goes down,
one ok price stop price goes down. And it pretty
(04:16):
much followed that trend for about through four years. And
we said, oh, if you get into refine products, the
lower the price. So all is the lower of the
gasoline pump prices are and people kind of ease up
a little bit in the drive more. You know, that's
not a one for one offset, but we were more
of a supply push organization as opposed to a demand pull.
(04:36):
And so so okay, well check that box. You know,
we got we got diversification out of it. And then
the third one of the third, second one of the
nine was we will it's something with a lot of
cash flow that you didn't have to spend a lot
of capital to keep that cash flow. And so Magellan
(04:57):
checked that box because they had one point billi of
earnings that was growing every year and they only had
to spend about one hundred million dollars to keep it
that way. And so that was a natural force. And
then the last thing was is could you put two
companies together and together they could do more than either
(05:20):
one of them could have done apart. And that's kind
of the definition of centert. So we were looking for
companies that if we put them together that the synergies
would be really and so we had synergies. And then
you know, so when at the time of the announcement
we sat on the low side, it's two hundred million.
On the higher side, it's four a million. We've since
(05:41):
adjusted that we higer than four in a million. But
if you think about let's just call it five hundred million,
you know, if you could buy an Ebida stream for
one point five billion and get enough synergies to add
another five hundred million of ebadah, that's a tremendous deal
for us. And so, you know, and then once we
(06:01):
explain that all to the street. And the thing that
wasn't understood in the beginning was the importance of a
liquid pipeline versus the gas pipeline, because a liquid pipeline
not crude, but our fine products and NGLs. You can
use those pies for both. It's just a matter of
you know, having the tankage and stead end, so you
(06:24):
could you could put propane through there for a while,
and then you could put gasoline behind it, and you know,
you separate them out because you see the phases as
they're starting to come in because of the gravity changes,
so you switch some valves and boom, you get them
at the right tanks, and so Magell and fit.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
That, you know, Robert. The one thing that I did
immediately think after talking to Pierce Snorton is that this
company went from a thirty billion dollar company to a
sixty billion dollar company overnight with his leadership and his vision.
(07:02):
And I also want to see something kind of funny.
I have a friend who works for energy transfer in
the acquisition area mergers, and he said, we had been
eyeing one Oak. We wanted to look to buy them,
he said, but now that they've acquired all these other
Imagellan and in Link. They're just too big now for
us to even look at. So definitely some amazing things happening,
(07:25):
and they're definitely a company to keep our eye on.
But now let's move into why I asked you to
come and join me on the show. It's an exciting time.
It's the end of the year, and so we're going
to look back on this year and see what really happened,
what kind of exploded and made big headlines, and also
(07:48):
what kind of faltered and didn't was a lot of
sizzle and really didn't you know, amount to very much
and anything else that we find to be important. But
I also want to mention it's also a very exciting
time as we move into twenty twenty five. We have
a new administration. Republicans have the House, the Senate, and
the White House, and so this will be a lot
(08:09):
of changes occurring in the energy sector too that we're
not used to seeing for the last four years. So
let's begin with we were discussing the Secretary of Energies
nominee Chris Wright of Liberty Energy. You and I discussed
we weren't really sure where he was going.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
Last time you had me on the show, we talked
about the nomination of Chris Wright as Energy Secretary, and
as I noted, some environmental groups were upset because they
were calling him a climate skeptic or a climate denier.
And I said, you know, it really occurs to me
that there are two different kinds of what you would
call a climate skeptic, and I don't know which one
he is. One would deny that the world's getting hotter.
(08:47):
I mean, they just deny climate change out right. They
say it's not happening, or that humans. Maybe it is happening,
but humans have nothing to do with it. And so
I dug in. I wrote an article for Forbes, and
I actually planed Chris Wright's stated position on climate change.
He has said, I believe that carbonoxide is a greenhouse
gas and it is contributing to atmosphere warming. He said
(09:12):
that he is not a climate skeptic in that sense.
He thinks that it is, you know, the world's warming
up because of carbonoxide that is being put in the
air by humans. What he thinks, though, is that efforts,
extraordinary efforts to try to curtail carbonoxide aren't really going
to have much of an impact because and I've said
(09:34):
this many times before, so this is consistent with my
own position. The US carbon emissions have been steady for
the last fifty years or so, and that meanwhile, China's
emissions are growing rapidly. I mean they're far higher now.
They have like thirty five percent of global emissions. They're
burning more than half the world's coal. They produce GDP
(09:56):
with a very high carbon footprint. And so Wright's position
would be, if we, you know, strangle our own economy
trying to rain in carbon oxide, it's going to have
really no effect at all because China is just going
to keep climbing and climbing and climbing. And so he's
I think you would call him a skeptic that the
(10:17):
measures we are trying to put in place will have
any meaningful impact on carbon emissions. And I think that
is probably correct. What we need to do to ragining
carbon emissions is get China to stop burning coal and
India to stop burning coal. You know, Asia Pacific. If
you look at the graphic, like I said, we're flat
and the EU is flat to down for the last
(10:38):
fifty years, and Asia Pacific is climbing rapidly. So I
published this article on Forbes and one comment I get
sometimes that people will say, yeah, but our per capita
emissions are higher than Asia's. Well that is true, but
Asia has a whole lot more people, and the atmosphere
doesn't care about per capital mes. It cares about total emissions.
(11:02):
So you know, the United States, with a fourth population
of China, we do have higher per capital emissions, but
China's emissions dwarf fires, and that's really what matters. So
I don't buy this per capita emission argument. I mean,
I explain to people like this sometimes if you were
a person on a desert island and your per capita
(11:23):
emissions were, you know, extraordinary, but you're just one person.
What difference does your capital emissions make in the grand scheme?
It doesn't make much difference at all. If you've got
billions of people with modest carbon emissions, that adds up
to a lot of carbon the atmosphere, and that's what
matters in the end, is not per capita. It's the
per capita times to people.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
Very interesting, you're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.
Speaker 4 (11:46):
We'll be right back.
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Speaker 2 (13:02):
And we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.
My guest Today is Robert Rapier, the editor in chief
and also host of the Energy Mixed radio show. Robert
Today's show has really been geared at trying to see
what predictions earlier in the year you predicted and see
how on target you were for twenty twenty four. So
(13:23):
I want to come back to prices of energy because
I just left a luncheon in which the data was
reflecting what the EIA was stating, as it appears that
we're going to be moving into a flat period in
twenty twenty five. And your prediction you said the total
(13:45):
US oil production will again set a new annual production record.
So you're the editor, I know that, and I'm like,
but the EIA is saying we're going to go flat?
Can you please explain what's going on here?
Speaker 4 (14:00):
Right?
Speaker 3 (14:01):
So, every January I make a set of predictions and
forbes on what's going to happen with the energy And
my top prediction number one was told us all production
will set a new annual production record in twenty twenty four,
just like it did in twenty twenty three. And I
made that prediction because we went into twenty twenty four
(14:23):
much higher than we went into twenty twenty three, and
so by that reasoning, we could even decline from January
through the end of the year as long as we
didn't decline at a huge rate, and we could still
set a production record overall production record. The issue was,
(14:43):
you know, we just entered the year at such a
high level. So you know, as far as the total
number of barrels produced, we may have set that record
by now. I've got to try to calculate it. But
last year, on about I think December the fifteenth, we
had set a new annual production record number of barrels produced,
and we're probably about there right now. However, I have
(15:07):
noticed since summer it does seem that the production gains
have been flattening out, and I think we're likely to
see that next year. And I ask people in the
industry all the time, because I have noticed this in
the EIAs data, that it seems like production's flattening, and
what they think about next year, because I don't think
(15:29):
i'll make that prediction next year. I don't think I
will predict that there'll be a new oil production record
in twenty twenty five, because right now it is not
at all clear to me that that will be the case.
Speaker 2 (15:40):
Very interesting. Let's switch gears. In your article, you also
mentioned that you believe that the daily average price for
WTI in twenty twenty four will be between seventy per
barrel to seventy five. So let's talk about that prediction.
Speaker 4 (15:59):
Right.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
So, you know, predicting oil prices is so hard because
oh yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
Tell me about it.
Speaker 3 (16:05):
Is one really big event and the prediction can just
be shot.
Speaker 4 (16:09):
You know.
Speaker 3 (16:11):
However, you know, from January, I didn't see anything major
on the horizon. I thought oil prices would be pretty moderate,
and they have men. I just checked, We're just below
seventy dollars. So I don't know if this prediction will
be correct, but it's.
Speaker 5 (16:29):
Going to be close.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
I mean, we're we're going to be in that seventy
seventy five range.
Speaker 4 (16:32):
You know.
Speaker 3 (16:33):
I've made a prediction like that before, and then you know,
Russia invade Ukraine and the predicted is shot because all
prices shoot up thirty or forty.
Speaker 2 (16:40):
Dollars a barrel, which no can predict that.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
That's right, But that hasn't happened this year. Prices have
been pretty moderate, so I think this prediction will come
pretty close to being correct.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
Very good let's talk about the exiting of the Biden
administration and how we're going to move into the Trump administration.
Very interesting times in I mean, there's like so much
chatter out there, what will happen to the Inflation Reduction
Act and you know, where's that going to go? And
(17:14):
will it stunt energy green energy policies. But before we
start getting into those projects, let's talk about another prediction
that you had. It was about the Biden administration won't
replace more than ten percent of oil removed from the
spr since Biden has been inaugurated. Where's it going to end?
Speaker 3 (17:35):
So they have been buying oil lately. I think that's
they're going to get close to that ten percent mark,
and they may exceed it, but they won't put all
the oil back. And that's been a source of contention
with some because they've made some comments that were really
open to confusion where some people, some media outlets reported
(17:58):
that the Biden administration was replenishing the oil back to
pre Ukraine invasion levels and that's not true at all.
They're not going to do that. They took out a
massive amount of oil and they are putting some of
it back, but they will only put a small amount
of it back, and I'll have to do the calculation
(18:18):
at the end of the year. I did it at
midyear and they weren't close. But they have been buying
more barrels, so I'll have to see where they end up.
But that prediction, it's going to be close. You know,
whether it's ten percent, a little more, a little less,
it's going to be in that ballpark.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
What are your thoughts on the Trump administration and how
important the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is to this administration. Do
you see them refilling it? I think that Trump administration
does really understand the importance of it in wartime or
in some kind of a disaster. But do you see
(18:56):
them refilling it in immediately off?
Speaker 3 (19:01):
So there are there's congressionally mandated sales. So if you
recall when prices fail during COVID, Trump proposed filling it,
topping it off then and Congress said no. So you know,
if Congress goes along with him, and I think it
really depends on the oil prices. You know, if you
saw oil prices tank, I think it would be reasonable
(19:24):
to say, hey, let's top off the spr It helps
our domestic oil producers and it helps our energy security
if we have if we put that a will back
in there, but it's going to take some There are
bills that have been signed that mandates sales of the SPR.
The SPR went down when Trump was in office because
of those congressionally mandated sales, and he did propose to
(19:47):
top it off, but they didn't do that. They continued
to sell, and then you know, it went down massively
under Biden, the largest draw in history.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
I'd like for us to talk about natural gas prices.
You also gave a prediction for twenty twenty four, and
I'd also like to ask you where you think natural
gas prices are going in twenty twenty five. But we
do have fick a quick break. You're listening to the
Energy Mix radio show. We'll be right back.
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Speaker 2 (21:22):
And we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.
My guest today is Robert Raypier, the editor in chief
of Show magazine, and Robert, you're also a host of
the Energy Mix radio show. Recently, in a Forbes article,
you were discussing and predicting natural gas and so for
(21:43):
our listeners who are not familiar with what's happening with
natural gas prices for twenty twenty four, tell us about
that prediction where is the prices because it was kind
of strange in twenty twenty four, and also where do
you see natural gas prices going for twenty twenty five?
Speaker 3 (22:03):
So I think this is one I'm going to get wrong.
I said the average natural gas price will be higher
in twenty twenty four than it was in twenty twenty three.
In twenty twenty three, average Henry Hubs spot price was
two dollars and fifty three cents, which was less than
half the price it was in twenty twenty two. Ongoing
shale boom continues to depress natural gas prices, even though
(22:27):
our LNGX sports continue to rise. Production continues to outstrip demand,
and just scanning over the prices this year, I have
to do this at the end of the year to
see what the average price was, but it looks like
prices were lower this year than they were last year. However,
(22:49):
there was a recent story that natural gas production had
taken a dip for the first time in a long time.
And if that dip is sustained and LNG exports continue
to rise, and I think we will see prices climb higher.
I'll probably make this same prediction for next year. I'll
predict that prices in twenty twenty five will be higher
(23:12):
than they were in twenty twenty four because prices have
been really depressed this year. A lot of it has
to do how much gas we have in storage. We
started out the year with lower gass and storage. A
lot of has to do with how mild the winter is.
If we have a mild winter and we come out
of the winter with a lot of gas and storage,
that will tend to depress natural gas prices. So you know,
(23:35):
I'll have to look at the end of the year
and see where we are as far as making a
prediction for next year.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
Out of you know, this woman is a powerhouse. She's
an MD doctor. She is just amazing all the work
she gets. She's so well organized, she's intelligent, she's talented,
and she knows her energy. And so I really want
to talk about geothermal. I don't think it gets enough discussion, honestly,
(24:02):
So Robert tell me, and I like it. I think
it's a really good energy source. So you tell me,
what do you think about a recent article you wrote
on geothermal.
Speaker 3 (24:14):
So linear a geothermal plug and why they've got them
in Iceland and they've got them in different places where
you know, there's lava that's not too deep, and so
they will drill down into it, they will run water down,
it'll get created into transformed, transform into steam, and it'll
be run through a steam turbine. And you know, that's
(24:36):
that's been most of geothermal to date, but you're pretty
limited there on having to be near a hotspot. Then
we go to enhanced geothermal, which is getting a lot
of traction. Now, enhanced gild thermal is you drill down
further and you use conventional like oil and gas drilling
(24:58):
and fracking, and you're getting down a much deeper into
the earth and you're sending the water down into the
hot zones that are that are further down.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
Rob let's take a quick break. When we return, we'll
get back on to you.
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Speaker 2 (27:22):
And we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.
My guest today is the editor in chief of Shaw
Magazine senior contributor of Forbes, Robert Rapier. Robert before the
break and I'm sorry, I was up against a hard break.
You were telling us about geodermal. Please continue, because there's
been a lot of activity now in geodermal. I want
people to start understanding when they hear that what that is.
Speaker 3 (27:45):
Okay, so again and conventional geodermal, you're drilling down into
a hotspot that's close to the surface and converting water
into steam, but enhanced geothermal you're drilling much deeper, making
me down ten thousand feet and they're hot zones. There
are a lot more hot zones at ten thousand feet
around the world, and so it's applicable in a lot
(28:07):
more locations. And so you're using conventional oil drilling and
fracking and they're sending water down the hole and they're
coming up out of a different hole with steam, and
you know, they're using that produce power. Department Energy has
estimated that there are probably one hundred thousand megawatts of
clean base load power available through enhanced geo thermal in
(28:31):
the United States and that's that's pretty big.
Speaker 9 (28:33):
That's a lot.
Speaker 3 (28:34):
And you know it's important to know this is baseload power.
It would be clean baseload power, no carbon electricity like
wind and solar, except not intermittent like wind and solar.
And there are several companies working on this. You know,
one is Fervo Energy. They're doing a project in Utah
to produced three hundred and twenty megawatts of electricity. And
(28:57):
then Ormot is Ormot is the conventional geothermal powerhouse. You know,
they've got a lot of geothermal plants, conventional plants. But
they received a three point four million dollar grant from
the DOE to demonstrate the viability of their enhanced geothermal
and a project in Nevada. And so they're going to
(29:17):
do that by it improving non commercial wells by applying
EGS stimulation enhance geothermal stimulation to develop fraction network. So
you know, it's drilling, it's fracking, but instead of oil,
they're trying to get the water down to the hotspots
and make.
Speaker 4 (29:33):
Steam very good.
Speaker 2 (29:35):
Well, as I did promise our listeners, we were going
to end with the Trump administration and looking and seeing
what you believe we will see with this administration. So
I want to start. I want to discuss the geopolitical
what is going to happen? What do you think is
going to happen. We're already seeing a lot of movement,
but in things happening. But let's start with where do
you see the Trump administration by what they're saying right now,
(29:58):
who they are nominating, what, and they have said we
are going to you know, drill baby drill in the
way of open up production. Where do you see this going?
And has the administration told us what outside of oil
and gas do they have any other energy sources that
they like that are also in the way of green energy.
(30:20):
And then I want to end on the IRA, the
Inflation Reduction Act. I don't want us to forget about that.
But first, Temmy, what do you think the Trump administration?
What's your favorite besides oil and gas? How are we
going to see energy production changing into this administration?
Speaker 3 (30:35):
Well, I mean when it comes to oil and gas,
they're going to be as favorable as possible, and they're
going to try to get rid of regulations that they
can and try to promote that. So beyond that, I
don't think you'll see as much support for wind and solar,
but I don't think they need as much support as
they once needed. So I don't think you know that
industry will decline, but they may grow more slowly. I
(30:57):
think the wild card in the mix here is Elon Mumh.
So you know Elon Musk and electric vehicles. I think
without him and the picture, the Trump administration should be saying, yeah,
we're not in favor of electric cars. But that is
a real wild card. I don't know what is going
to happen with electric vehicles with Elon Musk having Trump's
(31:17):
ear now, so you know that industry may not get
hit as hard as say wind and solar as far
as fund and getting pulled back. You know, the industry
has benefited a lot from tax incentives and that may
continue because you know, Elon Musk is there and he's
in Trump's ear telling him, hey, we got to continue
(31:38):
to electrify.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
You know, one question that I do have is the
Trump administration. Chris Wright, you were talking about his beliefs,
his stance, and you and I talk a lot about
climate change in the way of you know, we really
do need to pay attention to that as well this
you know, his administration, Where do you see us going
with climate change? And do you see him playing a
(32:03):
greater role in the world of trying to help other
countries talk to them about bringing maybe China and India,
you know, other countries that really need help in moving
along their greener energy policies. Do you see Trump as
one of those leaders. Do you see him taking that honor?
Do you see him just completely not worrying about that
(32:24):
at all with other countries.
Speaker 3 (32:26):
I think he's more of America first guy, and I
think there's.
Speaker 2 (32:30):
Going to we'll be an America first guy if we
don't keep you know, our eye on climate change too.
That's kind of important.
Speaker 3 (32:38):
Yeah, I think there's going to be a wedge between
US and Europe over this issue. I think we'll pull
out of the Climate Accord again, the Paris Agreement, will
pull out of that. You know, the biggest thing we
could do is export our nuclear power technology to China
and get them building power plants and shutting down some
(32:58):
of these coal fired power plants. That is the low
hanging fruit out there. So you know, if you told me,
you know, do what you can to limit global climate emissions,
I would put a big circle around China and say, right,
here's the problem. Whole consumption in China has risen rapidly,
Their carbon emissions have risen rapidly. You need to shut
(33:20):
down those co fire power plants and replace them with
clean nuclear power and enhanced geo thermal, which we just
talked about, and you know, regular geo thermal. I don't
know what their situation is with respect to regular geothermal,
but China needs to be doing everything they can and
they are installing a lot of renewables, but they're also
installing a lot of fossil fuels and that is what's
(33:42):
driving carbon emissions higher globally year after year.
Speaker 8 (33:46):
You know.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
And I don't mean to push President Trump into policy
because I'm certainly I think he looks at the pair's
climate of coord and other things as money traps or
it's just about the money. It's talked about this is
the greatest transfer of wealth. So I understand all that,
but I think he can be a great educator on
what we really need to be focusing on, which is
helping these countries move to a cleaner, more sustainable energy
(34:10):
grid to some degree, and he is a great leader
in doing that. It can somebody talk to him about
trying to look at it from that direction, Robert, we
do have to take a quick break. But when we return,
I did promise that I wanted to talk about the
Inflation Reduction Act and seeing kind of where you think
this administration is going to end up with some of
(34:32):
the legislation that was passed in the Biden administration. But
let's take a quick break. You're listening to the Energy
Mix radio show, and we'll be right back.
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Speaker 2 (36:12):
And we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mixed Radio Show.
And my guest today is the editor in chief of
Shell Magazine as well as a host here on the
Energy Mixed Radio Show, Robert. I want to end this
show with specifically trying to talk about President Trump. What
are your thoughts on the Inflation Reduction Act. Some people
(36:33):
are supporting it, some people not. Some people said it
was named wrong, it was titled wrong. There's just been
opposition and then there's also been It depends on if
you're a green fan or if you're not. But there's
been a lot of write ups and articles in the
media about what speculation of what President Trump is going
(36:53):
to do. When we're talking about the Inflation Reduction Act,
a lot of money was put in there for green projects,
hydrogen projects, and I'm very curious to get your opinion
on what happens to the Inflation Reduction Act and the
funds that was allocated. Will we see another flip flop
again from the energy industry when if there isn't any
money in there for hydrogen projects or something, will it
(37:15):
come back again off the table? So how close are
we from can they? I understand a lot of the
money has not been distributed that was supposed to be distribed.
So that's why I'm asking, do you see this being
undone and unmantled and maybe taken off in a different
direction when we talk about energy? What are your thoughts
on this? This is quite a large project here that's
(37:36):
been going on, and I want to know what happens
to it.
Speaker 3 (37:39):
Right, So I would say, right off the bag. Yes,
it's not named properly. It was not an inflation reduction Act.
It was a climate change bill. That is mainly what
I mean. They named it that because inflation was sky
high at the time, and there were some things in
there to address supply chain issues, but mainly it was
a climate bill. And what's going to happen going forward
(38:01):
anything that is not already contracted to be spent. I
think they will try to claw back as much as
they can, and they will cancel future solicitations of hydrogen
projects and you know, a lot of renewable money in there.
I see a lot of that getting clawed back. You know,
they're talking about severe austerity measures. I think that is
(38:21):
part of it. I think they're going to go in
and say, hey, you know, if you're not already getting
money and having signed a contract, then you know, we're
gonna we're gonna pull some of this money back off
the table.
Speaker 2 (38:33):
And my understanding is there hasn't been a whole lot
of that. So if there hasn't been a whole lot
of that, and companies are signing right now, you know,
exploring and also looking at potentially and they're putting money
on investment towards it, are they at risk of losing
these dollars and losing all these projects that they're going
to go away.
Speaker 4 (38:53):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
I think a lot of companies are sweating this. You know,
I've talked to companies that are sweating what's gonna what's
coming that maybe some of the incentives and some of
the loan guarantees that they were counting on are going
to be pulled off the table. You know, people that
have already signed a contract that's that's a different story.
And that money, I think I think they'd have to
go to court to get that money away from somebody
(39:16):
breaker contract. But you know, and I don't know what
percent of it has already been allocated and spoken for.
I'd like to know that number, because I just don't know.
It was a big bill. But you know, how much
of it could they get back? I just don't know.
Speaker 2 (39:30):
I'm curious though, as to why would they pull back
that money instead of letting it kind of move forward
and continuing these projects, and if for nothing else, of
just we have an expansion of energy going on right
and we're trying to find the solutions. We know that
we need to find more energy for the planet. We
(39:52):
need more, not less. So removing these potential solutions, is
that in our best interest? Robert? And if so, we're
going to pull back that money, where are we going
to place it? Where's it going to go?
Speaker 4 (40:05):
Does it?
Speaker 2 (40:05):
I mean they rarely give money to oil and gas,
So do you have any idea where when they pull
back this money, where it goes?
Speaker 3 (40:12):
Well, it ultimately goes to helping keep our deficit from
spiraling out of control, because it's tax dollars and they
some people would say that some of these projects, in fact,
some of them are boondoggles. I mean, some of these
projects are not good projects. And I've been critical for
two decades of some of the money we spend on
(40:33):
energy projects that were sold by you know, smooth talking
salesmen who really didn't know much about the energy sector.
You know, when I was on sixty Minutes, it was
because of a company that was promising they were going
to make gasoline for a buck eighty from woodchips, and
I detailed why that was not credible. I wrote a
(40:54):
series of skating articles. It was the founder of Somen
Microsystems who went into the intersector and said, I'm going
to show these dinosaurs how it's done. And I said,
this guy is completely out of his death And it
was funny because Leslie Stall opened the interview. She said, uh,
you know, this guy is a smart guy. You know,
(41:15):
why shouldn't we trust him? And I said, yes, he
is a smart guy. I said, would you let him
do heart surgery on you? And she said, well no,
I said no, he is out of his element. He
is out selling Congressman on this notion he has that
he can do something that aill in gas companies you know,
would have done if it could be done. I mean
they're not They're not staffed by stupid people.
Speaker 2 (41:35):
Well we always see this though, that these boondoggle projects,
like you talk, they take all the money they they
and then they end up either filing bankers.
Speaker 3 (41:46):
Uh there you go that year.
Speaker 2 (41:50):
Yeah. So what happens with like the electric vehicles Forward
and all them that have you know, retooled their factories
on making evs. And I know Elong is there, but
I don't think he cares to save the entire industry,
just maybe Tesla. So how do they now that they
are losing dollar for dollar? What that vehicle? When I
had the information, it was that they were actually losing
(42:13):
money on these vehicles, the electric vehicles, correct, they weren't
even breaking even they were entirely upside down. How do
they I mean, of course they pass it on you know,
shareholders and stuff. But do they continue on the process
electric vehicles? Do you think? Or do they switch gears
again and get back to what they do best, which
is make gas guzzling cars.
Speaker 3 (42:32):
And I think they I think they allocate less dollars
to it, and they continue but slower because I think
the future will be electric vehicles, but it's not happening
nearly as quickly as you know, people try to force
it to happen. You know, Norway is an example, been
pretty successful, but they've had massive subsidies to make that happen.
(42:55):
And I don't see us out just messly subsidize in
this industry. You know, we're we're spread out country with
low population density, and you know, I just don't see
electric vehicles across the Midwest of America and you know,
in the Rocky Mountains and so forth being the really
popular option for for a very long time.
Speaker 2 (43:15):
You know, when I think of electric vehicles and I
think of Tesla, I see two different types of vehicles,
and mindset Ford GM whoever is just there to build
those vehicles. Tesla to me creating and trying to build
new batteries that are far better than the problems we
have right now. They're all he's also talking about carlists
(43:36):
or you know, you don't need a driver vehicles. He
shows a path forward of actually, you know, taking us
into the future where I don't see that in true
car manufactures. So I think that maybe we see Tesla
moving in that direction with the United States government up.
He does have, you know, futuristic type of designs and
(43:59):
idea is that really would move us forward? I mean,
think about if you could get into a car and
you didn't have to have a driver driving you around,
you could just we see driverless.
Speaker 3 (44:09):
They've been piloting that here forever, I will see a
completely empty car driving down the road.
Speaker 2 (44:13):
That was crazy.
Speaker 3 (44:15):
Yes, I'm taking pictures of them like that car. Well,
actually nobody in it pulling up next to me.
Speaker 2 (44:20):
Yeah, that's the very pictures of Grid's happening now. So well, Robert,
that is all the time. We have great show. Thank
you for coming in and talking to us about what
you think was you know, your predictions for twenty twenty four,
and let's see how we you know, go into this
new year twenty twenty five with the Trump administration. One
thing is for sure, you and I will be talking
a lot about President Trump and this administration and this industry.
(44:44):
Now we're going to see it get back on track
of what you really know well as an energy expert
and strategist. So look forward to twenty twenty five. Thank you.
Speaker 1 (44:54):
The Energy Mix radio show is where we explore topics
that affect us all in the oil and gas industry.
Every week, our whole will interview the movers and shakers
in this fast paced industry. You'll hear from industry experts,
elected officials, and many more on the Energy Mix radio
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Welcome to the nationally syndicated Energy Mix Radio Show produced
by the Energy Network Media Group. The Energy Mix Radio
Show will give you an inside look at the energy
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Speaker 2 (00:16):
And welcome to the Energy Mix Radio Show. Today. I'm
excited to have Robert Raypier, the editor in chief of
Show magazine and an esteemed energy strategist, join me today
for our end of the year's show. Robert, you have
extensive experience in the energy sector and you have joined
me numerous times. You're also a host rarely on the
(00:38):
Energy Mix Radio Show, so I wanted to bring you
on as we close out this year and talk a
little bit about what has happened in twenty twenty four
some of the predictions that you had wrote about in Forbes.
But first I'd like to talk to you a little
(00:59):
bit about this latest merger and acquisition with One Oak
acquiring Magellan. How big do you think this is on
a scale of Is this a pretty large acquisition in
the energy sector.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
Yeah. So, in fact, one of my investment recommendations that
Investing Daily was Magellan so we have been in Magellan
for a long time, so we followed this pretty closely.
It's a pretty major acquisition. I mean there's a there.
Magellan was a big player in midstream and that is
for those who don't know, that's the companies that transport
(01:35):
oil and gas from the fields to downstream to refineries
and so forth, so popline companies basically, and Magellan was
a master rumit of partnership. There's not a lot of
those left because they keep getting acquired, and so it
makes one Oak bigger. And I know you recently were
at a Reuters Live event on energy and you caught
(01:55):
up with one Oak CEO, Pierce Norton, and he talked
to you about that acquisition. Can you share what he
said to.
Speaker 4 (02:00):
You about it?
Speaker 2 (02:02):
Well, I will let out let our listeners hear what
he had to say, but I just you know, I
will tell you I was very impressed with how strategic
Pier Snorton is and how he went and talked to
his board members and of course his employees and got
them on board with these acquisitions. There's a lot of
strategic pillars or stages that he had to go through,
(02:25):
and he kind of talked to me about that. But
the thing that I really enjoyed the most is when
he was looking he said, you know, Kim, it takes
about one hundred million dollars a year to produce a
one point five billion with Magellan. So we wanted a
cash cow and we got one. So Callum, can you
play pier snorton what he was telling me when I
(02:46):
got to speak with him one on one at Reuter's
Life event.
Speaker 4 (02:50):
You can fall in love with deals just because you can,
just because you can do something, or somebody come to
you and said I'll sell this to you. So we
felt like that we need to be a very intentional
discipline about what it is that we were doing. And
so we create the criteria, we stick to that criteria,
and if it doesn't meet it, we don't even I mean,
(03:11):
we may take a glance at it, but we don't
spend much time on it. And so that's the way
we got Magellan. So when you looked at our assets,
we had two thirds of our earnings. We're coming out
of North Dakota because we have so many assets out there,
and so we decided that, you know, so free of
(03:32):
the criteria we had was we got to diversify and
if we can, we need to put we need to
get into a completely new platform. And so that's when
when we started looking at Magellan and they happened to
be across street from us, but you know, we started
living at that saying, well, they ever find products. So
(03:54):
when the crude oil price is down in the North
Dakota area, the street would look at it and say, well,
that means that they're not going to drill. They're not
going to drill. It affects the volume. One oak is
a volume times rate business. So therefore true price goes down,
one ok price stop price goes down. And it pretty
(04:16):
much followed that trend for about through four years. And
we said, oh, if you get into refine products, the
lower the price. So all is the lower of the
gasoline pump prices are and people kind of ease up
a little bit in the drive more. You know, that's
not a one for one offset, but we were more
of a supply push organization as opposed to a demand pull.
(04:36):
And so so okay, well check that box. You know,
we got we got diversification out of it. And then
the third one of the third, second one of the
nine was we will it's something with a lot of
cash flow that you didn't have to spend a lot
of capital to keep that cash flow. And so Magellan
(04:57):
checked that box because they had one point billi of
earnings that was growing every year and they only had
to spend about one hundred million dollars to keep it
that way. And so that was a natural force. And
then the last thing was is could you put two
companies together and together they could do more than either
(05:20):
one of them could have done apart. And that's kind
of the definition of centert. So we were looking for
companies that if we put them together that the synergies
would be really and so we had synergies. And then
you know, so when at the time of the announcement
we sat on the low side, it's two hundred million.
On the higher side, it's four a million. We've since
(05:41):
adjusted that we higer than four in a million. But
if you think about let's just call it five hundred million,
you know, if you could buy an Ebida stream for
one point five billion and get enough synergies to add
another five hundred million of ebadah, that's a tremendous deal
for us. And so, you know, and then once we
(06:01):
explain that all to the street. And the thing that
wasn't understood in the beginning was the importance of a
liquid pipeline versus the gas pipeline, because a liquid pipeline
not crude, but our fine products and NGLs. You can
use those pies for both. It's just a matter of
you know, having the tankage and stead end, so you
(06:24):
could you could put propane through there for a while,
and then you could put gasoline behind it, and you know,
you separate them out because you see the phases as
they're starting to come in because of the gravity changes,
so you switch some valves and boom, you get them
at the right tanks, and so Magell and fit.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
That, you know, Robert. The one thing that I did
immediately think after talking to Pierce Snorton is that this
company went from a thirty billion dollar company to a
sixty billion dollar company overnight with his leadership and his vision.
(07:02):
And I also want to see something kind of funny.
I have a friend who works for energy transfer in
the acquisition area mergers, and he said, we had been
eyeing one Oak. We wanted to look to buy them,
he said, but now that they've acquired all these other
Imagellan and in Link. They're just too big now for
us to even look at. So definitely some amazing things happening,
(07:25):
and they're definitely a company to keep our eye on.
But now let's move into why I asked you to
come and join me on the show. It's an exciting time.
It's the end of the year, and so we're going
to look back on this year and see what really happened,
what kind of exploded and made big headlines, and also
(07:48):
what kind of faltered and didn't was a lot of
sizzle and really didn't you know, amount to very much
and anything else that we find to be important. But
I also want to mention it's also a very exciting
time as we move into twenty twenty five. We have
a new administration. Republicans have the House, the Senate, and
the White House, and so this will be a lot
(08:09):
of changes occurring in the energy sector too that we're
not used to seeing for the last four years. So
let's begin with we were discussing the Secretary of Energies
nominee Chris Wright of Liberty Energy. You and I discussed
we weren't really sure where he was going.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
Last time you had me on the show, we talked
about the nomination of Chris Wright as Energy Secretary, and
as I noted, some environmental groups were upset because they
were calling him a climate skeptic or a climate denier.
And I said, you know, it really occurs to me
that there are two different kinds of what you would
call a climate skeptic, and I don't know which one
he is. One would deny that the world's getting hotter.
(08:47):
I mean, they just deny climate change out right. They
say it's not happening, or that humans. Maybe it is happening,
but humans have nothing to do with it. And so
I dug in. I wrote an article for Forbes, and
I actually planed Chris Wright's stated position on climate change.
He has said, I believe that carbonoxide is a greenhouse
gas and it is contributing to atmosphere warming. He said
(09:12):
that he is not a climate skeptic in that sense.
He thinks that it is, you know, the world's warming
up because of carbonoxide that is being put in the
air by humans. What he thinks, though, is that efforts,
extraordinary efforts to try to curtail carbonoxide aren't really going
to have much of an impact because and I've said
(09:34):
this many times before, so this is consistent with my
own position. The US carbon emissions have been steady for
the last fifty years or so, and that meanwhile, China's
emissions are growing rapidly. I mean they're far higher now.
They have like thirty five percent of global emissions. They're
burning more than half the world's coal. They produce GDP
(09:56):
with a very high carbon footprint. And so Wright's position
would be, if we, you know, strangle our own economy
trying to rain in carbon oxide, it's going to have
really no effect at all because China is just going
to keep climbing and climbing and climbing. And so he's
I think you would call him a skeptic that the
(10:17):
measures we are trying to put in place will have
any meaningful impact on carbon emissions. And I think that
is probably correct. What we need to do to ragining
carbon emissions is get China to stop burning coal and
India to stop burning coal. You know, Asia Pacific. If
you look at the graphic, like I said, we're flat
and the EU is flat to down for the last
(10:38):
fifty years, and Asia Pacific is climbing rapidly. So I
published this article on Forbes and one comment I get
sometimes that people will say, yeah, but our per capita
emissions are higher than Asia's. Well that is true, but
Asia has a whole lot more people, and the atmosphere
doesn't care about per capital mes. It cares about total emissions.
(11:02):
So you know, the United States, with a fourth population
of China, we do have higher per capital emissions, but
China's emissions dwarf fires, and that's really what matters. So
I don't buy this per capita emission argument. I mean,
I explain to people like this sometimes if you were
a person on a desert island and your per capita
(11:23):
emissions were, you know, extraordinary, but you're just one person.
What difference does your capital emissions make in the grand scheme?
It doesn't make much difference at all. If you've got
billions of people with modest carbon emissions, that adds up
to a lot of carbon the atmosphere, and that's what
matters in the end, is not per capita. It's the
per capita times to people.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
Very interesting, you're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.
Speaker 4 (11:46):
We'll be right back.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
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Speaker 2 (13:02):
And we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.
My guest Today is Robert Rapier, the editor in chief
and also host of the Energy Mixed radio show. Robert
Today's show has really been geared at trying to see
what predictions earlier in the year you predicted and see
how on target you were for twenty twenty four. So
(13:23):
I want to come back to prices of energy because
I just left a luncheon in which the data was
reflecting what the EIA was stating, as it appears that
we're going to be moving into a flat period in
twenty twenty five. And your prediction you said the total
(13:45):
US oil production will again set a new annual production record.
So you're the editor, I know that, and I'm like,
but the EIA is saying we're going to go flat?
Can you please explain what's going on here?
Speaker 4 (14:00):
Right?
Speaker 3 (14:01):
So, every January I make a set of predictions and
forbes on what's going to happen with the energy And
my top prediction number one was told us all production
will set a new annual production record in twenty twenty four,
just like it did in twenty twenty three. And I
made that prediction because we went into twenty twenty four
(14:23):
much higher than we went into twenty twenty three, and
so by that reasoning, we could even decline from January
through the end of the year as long as we
didn't decline at a huge rate, and we could still
set a production record overall production record. The issue was,
(14:43):
you know, we just entered the year at such a
high level. So you know, as far as the total
number of barrels produced, we may have set that record
by now. I've got to try to calculate it. But
last year, on about I think December the fifteenth, we
had set a new annual production record number of barrels produced,
and we're probably about there right now. However, I have
(15:07):
noticed since summer it does seem that the production gains
have been flattening out, and I think we're likely to
see that next year. And I ask people in the
industry all the time, because I have noticed this in
the EIAs data, that it seems like production's flattening, and
what they think about next year, because I don't think
(15:29):
i'll make that prediction next year. I don't think I
will predict that there'll be a new oil production record
in twenty twenty five, because right now it is not
at all clear to me that that will be the case.
Speaker 2 (15:40):
Very interesting. Let's switch gears. In your article, you also
mentioned that you believe that the daily average price for
WTI in twenty twenty four will be between seventy per
barrel to seventy five. So let's talk about that prediction.
Speaker 4 (15:59):
Right.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
So, you know, predicting oil prices is so hard because
oh yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
Tell me about it.
Speaker 3 (16:05):
Is one really big event and the prediction can just
be shot.
Speaker 4 (16:09):
You know.
Speaker 3 (16:11):
However, you know, from January, I didn't see anything major
on the horizon. I thought oil prices would be pretty moderate,
and they have men. I just checked, We're just below
seventy dollars. So I don't know if this prediction will
be correct, but it's.
Speaker 5 (16:29):
Going to be close.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
I mean, we're we're going to be in that seventy
seventy five range.
Speaker 4 (16:32):
You know.
Speaker 3 (16:33):
I've made a prediction like that before, and then you know,
Russia invade Ukraine and the predicted is shot because all
prices shoot up thirty or forty.
Speaker 2 (16:40):
Dollars a barrel, which no can predict that.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
That's right, But that hasn't happened this year. Prices have
been pretty moderate, so I think this prediction will come
pretty close to being correct.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
Very good let's talk about the exiting of the Biden
administration and how we're going to move into the Trump administration.
Very interesting times in I mean, there's like so much
chatter out there, what will happen to the Inflation Reduction
Act and you know, where's that going to go? And
(17:14):
will it stunt energy green energy policies. But before we
start getting into those projects, let's talk about another prediction
that you had. It was about the Biden administration won't
replace more than ten percent of oil removed from the
spr since Biden has been inaugurated. Where's it going to end?
Speaker 3 (17:35):
So they have been buying oil lately. I think that's
they're going to get close to that ten percent mark,
and they may exceed it, but they won't put all
the oil back. And that's been a source of contention
with some because they've made some comments that were really
open to confusion where some people, some media outlets reported
(17:58):
that the Biden administration was replenishing the oil back to
pre Ukraine invasion levels and that's not true at all.
They're not going to do that. They took out a
massive amount of oil and they are putting some of
it back, but they will only put a small amount
of it back, and I'll have to do the calculation
(18:18):
at the end of the year. I did it at
midyear and they weren't close. But they have been buying
more barrels, so I'll have to see where they end up.
But that prediction, it's going to be close. You know,
whether it's ten percent, a little more, a little less,
it's going to be in that ballpark.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
What are your thoughts on the Trump administration and how
important the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is to this administration. Do
you see them refilling it? I think that Trump administration
does really understand the importance of it in wartime or
in some kind of a disaster. But do you see
(18:56):
them refilling it in immediately off?
Speaker 3 (19:01):
So there are there's congressionally mandated sales. So if you
recall when prices fail during COVID, Trump proposed filling it,
topping it off then and Congress said no. So you know,
if Congress goes along with him, and I think it
really depends on the oil prices. You know, if you
saw oil prices tank, I think it would be reasonable
(19:24):
to say, hey, let's top off the spr It helps
our domestic oil producers and it helps our energy security
if we have if we put that a will back
in there, but it's going to take some There are
bills that have been signed that mandates sales of the SPR.
The SPR went down when Trump was in office because
of those congressionally mandated sales, and he did propose to
(19:47):
top it off, but they didn't do that. They continued
to sell, and then you know, it went down massively
under Biden, the largest draw in history.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
I'd like for us to talk about natural gas prices.
You also gave a prediction for twenty twenty four, and
I'd also like to ask you where you think natural
gas prices are going in twenty twenty five. But we
do have fick a quick break. You're listening to the
Energy Mix radio show. We'll be right back.
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Speaker 2 (21:22):
And we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.
My guest today is Robert Raypier, the editor in chief
of Show magazine, and Robert, you're also a host of
the Energy Mix radio show. Recently, in a Forbes article,
you were discussing and predicting natural gas and so for
(21:43):
our listeners who are not familiar with what's happening with
natural gas prices for twenty twenty four, tell us about
that prediction where is the prices because it was kind
of strange in twenty twenty four, and also where do
you see natural gas prices going for twenty twenty five?
Speaker 3 (22:03):
So I think this is one I'm going to get wrong.
I said the average natural gas price will be higher
in twenty twenty four than it was in twenty twenty three.
In twenty twenty three, average Henry Hubs spot price was
two dollars and fifty three cents, which was less than
half the price it was in twenty twenty two. Ongoing
shale boom continues to depress natural gas prices, even though
(22:27):
our LNGX sports continue to rise. Production continues to outstrip demand,
and just scanning over the prices this year, I have
to do this at the end of the year to
see what the average price was, but it looks like
prices were lower this year than they were last year. However,
(22:49):
there was a recent story that natural gas production had
taken a dip for the first time in a long time.
And if that dip is sustained and LNG exports continue
to rise, and I think we will see prices climb higher.
I'll probably make this same prediction for next year. I'll
predict that prices in twenty twenty five will be higher
(23:12):
than they were in twenty twenty four because prices have
been really depressed this year. A lot of it has
to do how much gas we have in storage. We
started out the year with lower gass and storage. A
lot of has to do with how mild the winter is.
If we have a mild winter and we come out
of the winter with a lot of gas and storage,
that will tend to depress natural gas prices. So you know,
(23:35):
I'll have to look at the end of the year
and see where we are as far as making a
prediction for next year.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
Out of you know, this woman is a powerhouse. She's
an MD doctor. She is just amazing all the work
she gets. She's so well organized, she's intelligent, she's talented,
and she knows her energy. And so I really want
to talk about geothermal. I don't think it gets enough discussion, honestly,
(24:02):
So Robert tell me, and I like it. I think
it's a really good energy source. So you tell me,
what do you think about a recent article you wrote
on geothermal.
Speaker 3 (24:14):
So linear a geothermal plug and why they've got them
in Iceland and they've got them in different places where
you know, there's lava that's not too deep, and so
they will drill down into it, they will run water down,
it'll get created into transformed, transform into steam, and it'll
be run through a steam turbine. And you know, that's
(24:36):
that's been most of geothermal to date, but you're pretty
limited there on having to be near a hotspot. Then
we go to enhanced geothermal, which is getting a lot
of traction. Now, enhanced gild thermal is you drill down
further and you use conventional like oil and gas drilling
(24:58):
and fracking, and you're getting down a much deeper into
the earth and you're sending the water down into the
hot zones that are that are further down.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
Rob let's take a quick break. When we return, we'll
get back on to you.
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Speaker 2 (27:22):
And we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.
My guest today is the editor in chief of Shaw
Magazine senior contributor of Forbes, Robert Rapier. Robert before the
break and I'm sorry, I was up against a hard break.
You were telling us about geodermal. Please continue, because there's
been a lot of activity now in geodermal. I want
people to start understanding when they hear that what that is.
Speaker 3 (27:45):
Okay, so again and conventional geodermal, you're drilling down into
a hotspot that's close to the surface and converting water
into steam, but enhanced geothermal you're drilling much deeper, making
me down ten thousand feet and they're hot zones. There
are a lot more hot zones at ten thousand feet
around the world, and so it's applicable in a lot
(28:07):
more locations. And so you're using conventional oil drilling and
fracking and they're sending water down the hole and they're
coming up out of a different hole with steam, and
you know, they're using that produce power. Department Energy has
estimated that there are probably one hundred thousand megawatts of
clean base load power available through enhanced geo thermal in
(28:31):
the United States and that's that's pretty big.
Speaker 9 (28:33):
That's a lot.
Speaker 3 (28:34):
And you know it's important to know this is baseload power.
It would be clean baseload power, no carbon electricity like
wind and solar, except not intermittent like wind and solar.
And there are several companies working on this. You know,
one is Fervo Energy. They're doing a project in Utah
to produced three hundred and twenty megawatts of electricity. And
(28:57):
then Ormot is Ormot is the conventional geothermal powerhouse. You know,
they've got a lot of geothermal plants, conventional plants. But
they received a three point four million dollar grant from
the DOE to demonstrate the viability of their enhanced geothermal
and a project in Nevada. And so they're going to
(29:17):
do that by it improving non commercial wells by applying
EGS stimulation enhance geothermal stimulation to develop fraction network. So
you know, it's drilling, it's fracking, but instead of oil,
they're trying to get the water down to the hotspots
and make.
Speaker 4 (29:33):
Steam very good.
Speaker 2 (29:35):
Well, as I did promise our listeners, we were going
to end with the Trump administration and looking and seeing
what you believe we will see with this administration. So
I want to start. I want to discuss the geopolitical
what is going to happen? What do you think is
going to happen. We're already seeing a lot of movement,
but in things happening. But let's start with where do
you see the Trump administration by what they're saying right now,
(29:58):
who they are nominating, what, and they have said we
are going to you know, drill baby drill in the
way of open up production. Where do you see this going?
And has the administration told us what outside of oil
and gas do they have any other energy sources that
they like that are also in the way of green energy.
(30:20):
And then I want to end on the IRA, the
Inflation Reduction Act. I don't want us to forget about that.
But first, Temmy, what do you think the Trump administration?
What's your favorite besides oil and gas? How are we
going to see energy production changing into this administration?
Speaker 3 (30:35):
Well, I mean when it comes to oil and gas,
they're going to be as favorable as possible, and they're
going to try to get rid of regulations that they
can and try to promote that. So beyond that, I
don't think you'll see as much support for wind and solar,
but I don't think they need as much support as
they once needed. So I don't think you know that
industry will decline, but they may grow more slowly. I
(30:57):
think the wild card in the mix here is Elon Mumh.
So you know Elon Musk and electric vehicles. I think
without him and the picture, the Trump administration should be saying, yeah,
we're not in favor of electric cars. But that is
a real wild card. I don't know what is going
to happen with electric vehicles with Elon Musk having Trump's
(31:17):
ear now, so you know that industry may not get
hit as hard as say wind and solar as far
as fund and getting pulled back. You know, the industry
has benefited a lot from tax incentives and that may
continue because you know, Elon Musk is there and he's
in Trump's ear telling him, hey, we got to continue
(31:38):
to electrify.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
You know, one question that I do have is the
Trump administration. Chris Wright, you were talking about his beliefs,
his stance, and you and I talk a lot about
climate change in the way of you know, we really
do need to pay attention to that as well this
you know, his administration, Where do you see us going
with climate change? And do you see him playing a
(32:03):
greater role in the world of trying to help other
countries talk to them about bringing maybe China and India,
you know, other countries that really need help in moving
along their greener energy policies. Do you see Trump as
one of those leaders. Do you see him taking that honor?
Do you see him just completely not worrying about that
(32:24):
at all with other countries.
Speaker 3 (32:26):
I think he's more of America first guy, and I
think there's.
Speaker 2 (32:30):
Going to we'll be an America first guy if we
don't keep you know, our eye on climate change too.
That's kind of important.
Speaker 3 (32:38):
Yeah, I think there's going to be a wedge between
US and Europe over this issue. I think we'll pull
out of the Climate Accord again, the Paris Agreement, will
pull out of that. You know, the biggest thing we
could do is export our nuclear power technology to China
and get them building power plants and shutting down some
(32:58):
of these coal fired power plants. That is the low
hanging fruit out there. So you know, if you told me,
you know, do what you can to limit global climate emissions,
I would put a big circle around China and say, right,
here's the problem. Whole consumption in China has risen rapidly,
Their carbon emissions have risen rapidly. You need to shut
(33:20):
down those co fire power plants and replace them with
clean nuclear power and enhanced geo thermal, which we just
talked about, and you know, regular geo thermal. I don't
know what their situation is with respect to regular geothermal,
but China needs to be doing everything they can and
they are installing a lot of renewables, but they're also
installing a lot of fossil fuels and that is what's
(33:42):
driving carbon emissions higher globally year after year.
Speaker 8 (33:46):
You know.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
And I don't mean to push President Trump into policy
because I'm certainly I think he looks at the pair's
climate of coord and other things as money traps or
it's just about the money. It's talked about this is
the greatest transfer of wealth. So I understand all that,
but I think he can be a great educator on
what we really need to be focusing on, which is
helping these countries move to a cleaner, more sustainable energy
(34:10):
grid to some degree, and he is a great leader
in doing that. It can somebody talk to him about
trying to look at it from that direction, Robert, we
do have to take a quick break. But when we return,
I did promise that I wanted to talk about the
Inflation Reduction Act and seeing kind of where you think
this administration is going to end up with some of
(34:32):
the legislation that was passed in the Biden administration. But
let's take a quick break. You're listening to the Energy
Mix radio show, and we'll be right back.
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Speaker 2 (36:12):
And we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mixed Radio Show.
And my guest today is the editor in chief of
Shell Magazine as well as a host here on the
Energy Mixed Radio Show, Robert. I want to end this
show with specifically trying to talk about President Trump. What
are your thoughts on the Inflation Reduction Act. Some people
(36:33):
are supporting it, some people not. Some people said it
was named wrong, it was titled wrong. There's just been
opposition and then there's also been It depends on if
you're a green fan or if you're not. But there's
been a lot of write ups and articles in the
media about what speculation of what President Trump is going
(36:53):
to do. When we're talking about the Inflation Reduction Act,
a lot of money was put in there for green projects,
hydrogen projects, and I'm very curious to get your opinion
on what happens to the Inflation Reduction Act and the
funds that was allocated. Will we see another flip flop
again from the energy industry when if there isn't any
money in there for hydrogen projects or something, will it
(37:15):
come back again off the table? So how close are
we from can they? I understand a lot of the
money has not been distributed that was supposed to be distribed.
So that's why I'm asking, do you see this being
undone and unmantled and maybe taken off in a different
direction when we talk about energy? What are your thoughts
on this? This is quite a large project here that's
(37:36):
been going on, and I want to know what happens
to it.
Speaker 3 (37:39):
Right, So I would say, right off the bag. Yes,
it's not named properly. It was not an inflation reduction Act.
It was a climate change bill. That is mainly what
I mean. They named it that because inflation was sky
high at the time, and there were some things in
there to address supply chain issues, but mainly it was
a climate bill. And what's going to happen going forward
(38:01):
anything that is not already contracted to be spent. I
think they will try to claw back as much as
they can, and they will cancel future solicitations of hydrogen
projects and you know, a lot of renewable money in there.
I see a lot of that getting clawed back. You know,
they're talking about severe austerity measures. I think that is
(38:21):
part of it. I think they're going to go in
and say, hey, you know, if you're not already getting
money and having signed a contract, then you know, we're
gonna we're gonna pull some of this money back off
the table.
Speaker 2 (38:33):
And my understanding is there hasn't been a whole lot
of that. So if there hasn't been a whole lot
of that, and companies are signing right now, you know,
exploring and also looking at potentially and they're putting money
on investment towards it, are they at risk of losing
these dollars and losing all these projects that they're going
to go away.
Speaker 4 (38:53):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
I think a lot of companies are sweating this. You know,
I've talked to companies that are sweating what's gonna what's
coming that maybe some of the incentives and some of
the loan guarantees that they were counting on are going
to be pulled off the table. You know, people that
have already signed a contract that's that's a different story.
And that money, I think I think they'd have to
go to court to get that money away from somebody
(39:16):
breaker contract. But you know, and I don't know what
percent of it has already been allocated and spoken for.
I'd like to know that number, because I just don't know.
It was a big bill. But you know, how much
of it could they get back? I just don't know.
Speaker 2 (39:30):
I'm curious though, as to why would they pull back
that money instead of letting it kind of move forward
and continuing these projects, and if for nothing else, of
just we have an expansion of energy going on right
and we're trying to find the solutions. We know that
we need to find more energy for the planet. We
(39:52):
need more, not less. So removing these potential solutions, is
that in our best interest? Robert? And if so, we're
going to pull back that money, where are we going
to place it? Where's it going to go?
Speaker 4 (40:05):
Does it?
Speaker 2 (40:05):
I mean they rarely give money to oil and gas,
So do you have any idea where when they pull
back this money, where it goes?
Speaker 3 (40:12):
Well, it ultimately goes to helping keep our deficit from
spiraling out of control, because it's tax dollars and they
some people would say that some of these projects, in fact,
some of them are boondoggles. I mean, some of these
projects are not good projects. And I've been critical for
two decades of some of the money we spend on
(40:33):
energy projects that were sold by you know, smooth talking
salesmen who really didn't know much about the energy sector.
You know, when I was on sixty Minutes, it was
because of a company that was promising they were going
to make gasoline for a buck eighty from woodchips, and
I detailed why that was not credible. I wrote a
(40:54):
series of skating articles. It was the founder of Somen
Microsystems who went into the intersector and said, I'm going
to show these dinosaurs how it's done. And I said,
this guy is completely out of his death And it
was funny because Leslie Stall opened the interview. She said, uh,
you know, this guy is a smart guy. You know,
(41:15):
why shouldn't we trust him? And I said, yes, he
is a smart guy. I said, would you let him
do heart surgery on you? And she said, well no,
I said no, he is out of his element. He
is out selling Congressman on this notion he has that
he can do something that aill in gas companies you know,
would have done if it could be done. I mean
they're not They're not staffed by stupid people.
Speaker 2 (41:35):
Well we always see this though, that these boondoggle projects,
like you talk, they take all the money they they
and then they end up either filing bankers.
Speaker 3 (41:46):
Uh there you go that year.
Speaker 2 (41:50):
Yeah. So what happens with like the electric vehicles Forward
and all them that have you know, retooled their factories
on making evs. And I know Elong is there, but
I don't think he cares to save the entire industry,
just maybe Tesla. So how do they now that they
are losing dollar for dollar? What that vehicle? When I
had the information, it was that they were actually losing
(42:13):
money on these vehicles, the electric vehicles, correct, they weren't
even breaking even they were entirely upside down. How do
they I mean, of course they pass it on you know,
shareholders and stuff. But do they continue on the process
electric vehicles? Do you think? Or do they switch gears
again and get back to what they do best, which
is make gas guzzling cars.
Speaker 3 (42:32):
And I think they I think they allocate less dollars
to it, and they continue but slower because I think
the future will be electric vehicles, but it's not happening
nearly as quickly as you know, people try to force
it to happen. You know, Norway is an example, been
pretty successful, but they've had massive subsidies to make that happen.
(42:55):
And I don't see us out just messly subsidize in
this industry. You know, we're we're spread out country with
low population density, and you know, I just don't see
electric vehicles across the Midwest of America and you know,
in the Rocky Mountains and so forth being the really
popular option for for a very long time.
Speaker 2 (43:15):
You know, when I think of electric vehicles and I
think of Tesla, I see two different types of vehicles,
and mindset Ford GM whoever is just there to build
those vehicles. Tesla to me creating and trying to build
new batteries that are far better than the problems we
have right now. They're all he's also talking about carlists
(43:36):
or you know, you don't need a driver vehicles. He
shows a path forward of actually, you know, taking us
into the future where I don't see that in true
car manufactures. So I think that maybe we see Tesla
moving in that direction with the United States government up.
He does have, you know, futuristic type of designs and
(43:59):
idea is that really would move us forward? I mean,
think about if you could get into a car and
you didn't have to have a driver driving you around,
you could just we see driverless.
Speaker 3 (44:09):
They've been piloting that here forever, I will see a
completely empty car driving down the road.
Speaker 2 (44:13):
That was crazy.
Speaker 3 (44:15):
Yes, I'm taking pictures of them like that car. Well,
actually nobody in it pulling up next to me.
Speaker 2 (44:20):
Yeah, that's the very pictures of Grid's happening now. So well, Robert,
that is all the time. We have great show. Thank
you for coming in and talking to us about what
you think was you know, your predictions for twenty twenty four,
and let's see how we you know, go into this
new year twenty twenty five with the Trump administration. One
thing is for sure, you and I will be talking
a lot about President Trump and this administration and this industry.
(44:44):
Now we're going to see it get back on track
of what you really know well as an energy expert
and strategist. So look forward to twenty twenty five. Thank you.
Speaker 1 (44:54):
The Energy Mix radio show is where we explore topics
that affect us all in the oil and gas industry.
Every week, our whole will interview the movers and shakers
in this fast paced industry. You'll hear from industry experts,
elected officials, and many more on the Energy Mix radio
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