Shale Magazine Editor-in-Chief - Robert Rapier

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to the nationally syndicated Energy Mix Radio Show produced
by the Energy Network Media Group. The Energy Mix Radio
Show will give you an inside look at the energy
industry and how it affects you by talking with industry leaders, experts,
and government officials on the Energy Mix Radio Show.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
And welcome to another charged edition of the Energy Mix
Radio Show where we break down the forces is powering
our world, one conversation at the time, and I'm your host.
Today we are plugging into insights with a true energy
insider joining me is Robert Raypier, energy strategist, chemical engineer,
and the editor in chief of Show magazine. With decades

(00:39):
of experience in oil, gas, renewables, Robert's voice is one
of the most trusted and thought provoking in the energy space,
from supply chain dynamics to the path of sustainability. He's
not just writing about the energy transition, He's shaping the conversation.
So settle in as we explore the realities behind the
headlines and changes ahead, and why understanding the energy mix

(01:03):
is so important. Robert, Welcome back to the Energy Mix
Radio Show.

Speaker 3 (01:07):
Thanks Kim.

Speaker 2 (01:08):
I ask for you to come and explain to us
what is going on. There's a lot going on with
Israel Iran the Strait of her Mouth, which we wrote
about that a little bit, and the importance and the
significance of that. So I want to cover that in
today's show, but it almost seems like the more we're

(01:29):
going to cover, the quicker this story is changing. So
I want to stick to the bigger implications in the
energy sector about all this unstableness that's happening between Iran
Iraq and the Strait of her Mouth and how that
affects us here back home too. But before we get
started on that, you and I were talking before we

(01:50):
started the show a little bit about debunking something that's
been getting a lot of attention lately, and that is
the Toyota water car. You wrote about it in Forbes.
Tell us a little bit about what are you trying
to debunk when we talk about water cars? Do they exist?
What are they?

Speaker 3 (02:10):
So this has been going around since I was a kid.
I mean, last week on Facebook there is a group
that's got more than four hundred thousand followers that shared
the following, and I'll read what they wrote because this
has just spread wildly. It says in a move that
will shake up the global auto industry. Toyota has just

(02:31):
unbailed a water engine powered by hydrogen created through electrolysis,
emitting only water vapor, no lithium, no charging stations, just
pure disruption. Toyota isn't just competing with evs. They're declaring
the end of the battery era. Now that sounds very powerful,

(02:52):
it does, and it's all scott nonsense. It is absolute,
utter nonsense. Like I said, these these claims have been
going around since I was a kid. They in fact,
if you look at the comments, they repeat some of
the claims I've heard since I was a kid. A
guy invented a water car and the oil companies bought
the patent, or a guy invented the water car and

(03:15):
mysteriously died, and so his invention was never out there.
So let's let's take this claim apart. Here, the claim
is Toyota unveiled a water powered engine, which is immediately
contradicted by powered by hydrogen created through electrolysis. Now, it
can't be both powered by water and powered by hydrogen.

(03:36):
It's powered by something, so water itself is not a fuel.
Water is the product of the combustion of hydrogen. That's
that's where water comes from. Water can produce energy moving water,
we know, you know hydro power, tidle power, wave energy.
Moving water can create energy. But water in a car

(03:59):
can create energy. It can be used as the source
of a fuel, but it requires additional energy inputs. So
I debunk this in Forbes and I explain the science here.
If you have water in a car, you could put
electricity into that water and split it into hydrogen and oxygen,

(04:22):
and then you could use the hydrogen to run a
hydrogen powered vehicle. That's true. The problem is those steps
are all inefficient, and it takes more energy to split
water into hydrogen and oxygen then you can get back
from then burning the hydrogen. That's a law of thermodynamics.
So it would make more sense than splitting water into

(04:45):
hydrogen oxygen just to use electricity directly on an electric vehicle.
That would make far more sense than trying to have
a convoluted scheme where you split water into hydrogen and
then burn hydrogen. So what I think is I think
this group may be used AI to create this post
because it's really confused on the science here. You know,

(05:10):
this is not a water powered car. In fact, the
original patent that this is referring to, Toyota created an engine.
They patented an engine, the hydrogen engine that is water cooled,
so hydrogen burns very hot. So Toyota has patented water
injection directly into the cylinders. But the water's not a fuel.

(05:32):
The water's just cooling and letting the hydrogen burn at
a cooler temperature. So it is absolute, utter nonsense. The
debunking debunkings are always popular, and the debunking on Forbes
has gotten more views than any of my articles in
the past, I don't know, three or four months probably,
and it's getting shared on Facebook a lot. But just
understand that there is no water powered car. There can

(05:55):
never be a water powered car because water is not
a fuel. You know, there are some schemes where you
could use water to split into hydrogen. You know, you
could react it with metallic sodium, for instance, and that'll
produce hydrogen, but it takes a lot of energy to
produce metallic sodium. So again, your water's not the fuel.

(06:17):
Your fuel is something else. Your fuel is you're having
to put energy into the water. So that that was, uh,
you know, I debunked that, but it won't stop people.
If you read the comments following that post, they're pretty
depressing about what people think about about how they understand,
you know, science technology here. I think most of our
viewers understand that water cannot be a fuel. Water water

(06:41):
is you know, it doesn't contain energy just sitting there,
you know, not with the ability to run an engine.

Speaker 2 (06:51):
Well, I have to say that's one of the reasons
why our show is so important, because we're talking to
the average day person and it seems like this is
one that we needed to I'm glad you wrote that
article in Forbes. I want to switch gears and get
on the topic of what's really happening right now. The
global energy landscape has been significantly impacted by geopolitical tension,

(07:14):
economic shifts, and an evolving supply demand dynamics. One of
the most pressing concerns is the escalation conflict that's happening
between Israel and Iran, which has already disrupted oil markets.
Israel's strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure and Iran's threat to
close the Strait of Harmouth, a critical checkpoint for global

(07:38):
oil shipments, while they have sent crude prices soaring. Meanwhile,
market uncertainty remains high as investors weigh the risk of
further escalation. Oil prices have fluctuated sharply, reflecting concerns over
supplied disruption and inflationary pressures. And then there's OPEQ plus
policy and their decision to also play a part in

(08:00):
this critical role. The group is pledging to increase production
through actually outputting, even though actually their outputting has lagged
behind their expectations of what they said they were going
to put out on the market. And meanwhile, USL production
appears to have plateaued, with rigs count declining and producers
focusing on capital discipline rather than aggressive expansion. And at

(08:24):
the same time, if this isn't enough, Oil's China's oil
demand is evolving, with forecasts suggesting an earlier than expected
peak due to the rise of electric vehicles and alternative fuels.
So the question is, with all this happening, we see
that Bent CREWD has the forecast of what they're looking

(08:48):
at is going to search somewhere between fifty eight to
sixty six dollars a barrel. So let's dig into all
of this. This is a lot to sift through, and
then we'll touch a little bit on what's our happening with.
We know that President Trump is giving Iran two weeks
to figure it out. So let's start with Robert, tell
us a little bit about the recent Israel Iran escalation

(09:11):
and how has it affected the global oil flow. I'm
hearing a lot of chatter coming out of the Strait
of Primouth ships kind of trying to avoid the region.
So how is this affecting the global oil flow?

Speaker 3 (09:24):
Okay, so we as background. I think the issue is
Israel believes that Iran is close to having a nuclear weapon,
and they are afraid that that would really destabilize and
potentially be an existential threat for Israel if Iran became nuclear,
Israel worries that they could, you know, wipe Israel off

(09:46):
the face of the map. So Israel is striking sites
that it believes might be related to Iran's nuclear program. Now,
so that's the basis. They've had a cold war for many,
many years. There's been a lot of s Galatian and
de escalation over over time. But you know, this is
the most the hottest that this situation has become in

(10:08):
quite some time. Now, let's talk about why this matters.
If you look at a map, you quickly understand why
Iran is so important. You know, it's only the ninth
or tenth largest oil producer in the world, but it's
one of the most important when it comes to oil logistics.
So the Persian Gulf oil coming out of the Persian

(10:31):
Gulf areas, so Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, the
Ua Dubai, all of those have export terminals that go
into the Persian Gulf and they have to go through
the Strait of Hormuz to get to global oil markets.
And you know, Iran borders one side of the Persian

(10:51):
Gulf and Saudi Arabia largely borders the other side. And
so people say, well, how can Iran shut down this passageway.
It's because how does the Persian Gulf takes a deep
dip into Iran and it's easy for them to control
that straight that area. There's a narrow passageway that dips
in there to Iran, and twenty percent of the world's

(11:15):
oil about passes through that area. And that's why it
is so critical, and that's why Iran has a disproportionate
impact on the world's oil markets. Even though you know
They're not nearly as important as Saudi Arabia as a producer,
they are very important in being able to control the
floes of oil around the world.

Speaker 2 (11:35):
Absolutely, So, how has the conflict between Israel and Iran
affected the global oil markets as well? We've talked about
the flow, Now let's talk about the markets.

Speaker 3 (11:47):
Yeah, so there's always a fear premium when any escalation
happens in the Middle East, but especially so with Iran,
and soil price is spiked up on last Friday when
Israel initially lost the attacks, they settled down a bit,
but oil prices are going to be very volatile as
well as situation is going on.

Speaker 2 (12:05):
I want to talk out the strait of her mooth
and I want you to explain to the listeners. You
know how important this is for the flow of how
the global oil is being transported through that very sensitive area.
You mentioned it a little bit. We're going to drill
down when we come back from break. You're listening to
the Energy ex radio show, We'll be right back.

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Speaker 2 (13:02):
And we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.
My guest today is editor in chief of Shale Magazine,
Robert Raypier. Robert, let's drill down a little bit. When
we started our first segment, you told us a little
bit about how important i Ran is for the global
oil flow, how these ships are transporting all this crude

(13:23):
globally or energy whatever's being transported in the way, either
one of these. But can you tell me a little
bit about the conflict now it has heightened. There's been
a lot of heightened concerns over supply disruption, particularly if
Iran retaliates by closing the strait of Hermoth, which transports
nearly twenty percent of the world's oil supply flow. So

(13:46):
oil prices searched over six percent following Israel strike on
Iran to oil facilities, reflecting the market sensitivity to geopolitical risk.
Explain to the listeners if you shut that off, what
does that mean? And then ships that are still trying
to navigate through there, what has been the past history
in the way of how Iran attacks ships going through there?

(14:08):
I mean, tell us the whole story about why the
Strait of her Mouth is so important.

Speaker 3 (14:14):
Yeah, So, as I was saying for the break, if
you look at the oil producers in that region, So
the Persian Gulf itself is you know, one hundred miles
or more wide, but as the Gulf heads out toward
the toward the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea, it
narrows to a point of you know, maybe twenty miles

(14:35):
twenty five miles dipping in close to Iran, and so
Iran can control that very narrow passageway pretty easily and
they could shut down shipping. And ships don't want to
pass to an area that's engaged in military conflict, especially
in a narrow area like that, because they're very susceptible
then to attack. And so let's say some of the

(15:00):
oil flow shuts down. That's a lot of oil coming
out of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran. That would have a
dramatic impact on global oil prices. You know, you probably
couldn't shut it all down, but if you shut down
a significant portion of that, you'd seeal prices run up
very high. You know, if Iran announced they were shutting

(15:23):
down the straight of Horn News, you'd seeal prices run
up I don't know, ten twenty thirty dollars a barrel
practically overnight. Global oil flows would have to reposition. You know,
in the US, people say, why is this a big
deal in the US, Well, because we are exposed to
global oil markets, because we export oil, we import some oil.

(15:45):
Even though we now produce about as much oil as
we need to run our refineries, we don't use the
oil that we produce. We use some of it, but
it's not a good fit for our refineries. Our refineries
were built over decades for heavy sound oil, and the
shale oil in the US is lighter and sweeter, and
it's better suited. It's also more expensive, and that's better

(16:08):
suited for refineries that didn't upgrade. So we put a
lot of oil out there on the international markets. We
bring oil in. So if oil price is spiked very high,
that is potentially good for US oil producers who are
now getting more money for their crude. But you know
refiners are going to suddenly be dealing with higher crude

(16:30):
prices because those prices all affect one another. So even
though you know that may be mostly lighter, sweeter crude
coming through the straight of hor moves, it will there'll
be a knock on effect to crude oil grades all
over the world because refineries have some choice and what
kind of crudes they've done. So it would be extremely

(16:51):
disruptive to the oil markets. The price would soar. Anytime
there's conflict over there, there's a fear premium, and the
theory is I won't be able to get the bear
roles that I need, and so I'm willing to pay
a premium to ensure that I get the barrels I need,
and that's why the prices run up like they do.

Speaker 2 (17:07):
Let's just go one step further. I wonder what you
might feel there might be some options if if they
were to do this. Right now they're focusing on just
are we talking about right now, we're talking about destroying
that nuclear site, and that's what's been on the table,
and the Strait of her Mouth has kind of gone

(17:29):
silent on that discussion. Should they do this? What are
the implications as far as other countries. Are they going
to step up? Do you feel those step up and
do something in the way of you can't do this?
Or what happens if they really do try to shut
down the Strait of her Mouth? What do you think happens?

Speaker 3 (17:48):
Well, that impacts a Raq, it impacts Saudi Arabia, and
you know they're not necessarily friendly with Iran, so you
know those major old producers a rack in Saudi Arabia,
are you ae kuwait, they're all going to be against
that move. I mean that will affect a cash coming
into all of those countries. So you know, Iran could

(18:08):
potentially do it, they might face tremendous backlash and they
might face, you know, immediate attack if they actually tried
to shut that waterway down.

Speaker 2 (18:20):
So then the likelihood of that probably isn't going to
hop in because it sounds like they're already up to
their eyeballs in mess. If you will, another thing they.

Speaker 3 (18:29):
Don't necessarily need to shut it down if the military
conflict around that region gets hot. You know, crude ale
tankers are not going to want to go through there.
You know they may be you know, subject to you know,
mistaken strikes, or you know, you just don't want It's
just like a commercial airline. You don't want commercial airline
traffic going through a hot war, and you don't want

(18:50):
your crudi ol tankers going through a hot war.

Speaker 2 (18:53):
That's very understandable. Let's talk about market pricing, the risk
and uncertainty. What do you feel You write a lot
about the markets and investing. How do you see the
markets responding right now to what's happened this far? And
where do you see the markets going with this uncertainty?

Speaker 3 (19:11):
Well, I mean, man, this is hard to uh, this
is really hard to project. You know. President Trump said
he's going to make a decision on whether to you know,
join in on the attacks on Iran, and then what
what does Iran do? And do we mobilize other Middle
Eastern countries against us? If that happens, does this conflict spread?
There is so much uncertainty here that it's really hard

(19:35):
to gauge how this is going to affect oil prices.
I don't think this settles down anytime soon. Iran is
going to be very angry for a long time over
the strikes, and they may try to retaliate somewhere down
the line. So I think there's going to be a
bit of a fear premium. You know. I thought oil

(19:55):
prices would be pretty modest for the rest of the year,
probably about where they are. I think now that well,
you know, they could potentially go a lot higher. I
don't see them going a lot lower because I just
don't see this conflict settling down too much between now
and the end of the year.

Speaker 2 (20:09):
I agree with you. Let's take a quick break. You're
listening to the Energy Mixed radio show. We'll be right back.

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Speaker 3 (21:22):
Robert.

Speaker 2 (21:22):
Before the break, you were telling us about how the
markets are pricing in the risk and uncertainty. But let's
switch gears and talk about what is driving oil price
volatility right now. It seems to be swinging, and I'm
not sure if we understand the whole reason why it's swinging.
We understand and has something to do with the tension
going on between israel I ran in the strait of hermouth.

(21:45):
Tell me a little bit about what else is causing
these oil prices to be so volatile?

Speaker 3 (21:50):
So regardless of the timing, anytime there's conflict in Middle East,
they're going to swing. Now there's probably swinging a little
bit more than normal now, and the reason for that
is US shale supply is not increasing like it was
in the past few years. So right now we're still
in record territory. Year to date, we're two point six

(22:11):
percent higher than we were a year ago, but that
is substantially less growth than we've seen over you know,
most of the past fifteen years. Actually growth is starting
to slow down, and global demand is remains strong. Growth
growth remains strong there, and so you know, one of
the reasons oil prices have been reasonably moderate for most

(22:34):
of the past you know, ten to fifteen years is
even though global demand grew pretty sharply, shale oil growth
grew sharply as well, and so that helped fill in
the gaps there and make sure that we didn't have
a supply shortfall. I've often said, if not for the
growth of shale, we would have paid one hundred dollars
or more barrel for oil for all of the past

(22:56):
fifteen years. And so the fact that oil the shale
supply may be slowing down, it may be plateauing that
is helping to drop volatility and probably make it worse.
So you know, investors are looking at the supply side,
they're looking at the demand side, which remains strong, and
they're saying, Okay, the supply side, we may have a
bit of an issue here over the next year or two.

Speaker 2 (23:20):
Okay, let's talk about O peck plus because in my
opening I discussed there's a lot going on China. Oh
peck plus. I ran Israel. The strait of hermouth is
O peck plus's policy. Their moves. Will it materialize to
more barrels? They're making promises that they're going to increase,
which probably would not I don't I think it would

(23:43):
probably have a price effect on that flooding the market.
But they haven't actually been able to obtain that. So
are these barrels going to materialize from a peck plus.

Speaker 3 (23:53):
Well, I mean, I always try to think about it
from their perspective, so you think about it from our perspective.
We want to see them put more more barrels on
the market and to give us, you know, reasonable oil prices.
From their perspective, they want to get the most cash
for their oil that they can possibly get and so
they're probably sitting by waiting to see what's going to

(24:15):
happen with this whole Iran Israel conflict. You know, as
oil prices go up, they're suddenly making more money. And so, now,
do you really want to put a lot more barrels
out on the market and cause the price to come
back down? Maybe not, because now you've got an excuse.
Now you got an excuse for why oil prices are higher,
and so you know, you don't want to go out

(24:37):
there and dump too many barrels on the market and
cause the price to crash. That's what I think they're
probably thinking. That's the way I would think about that problem.
You know, from our perspective, yes, we want low oil prices,
you know, not for the necessarily for the listeners of
this show, who are you know, a lot of them

(24:57):
in the oil and gas industry. We don't want to
see low, low oil prices. But the average American, you know,
they're happy with cheap gas and they're happy with cheap oil,
and they'd like to see that. And you know, President
Trump has tried to have it both ways here, where
we get low oil prices and we get a booming
oil industry. And I think if he could get Saudi

(25:19):
Arabia to produce more oil, and I hope they plus
to put more oil on the market, he could get
his low oil prices. But I think that would hurt
the US oil industry.

Speaker 2 (25:29):
True. Let's bring it back to you mentioned earlier about
shale and how and I mentioned it too, But why
do you think it is a US shale supply has plateaued.
What's the rationale and reasoning behind that?

Speaker 3 (25:43):
Well, simply put it, there's only a limited amount of oil.
I mean, there's eventually production has to slow down and
go the other way. We've seen that in field after
field after field, and in country after country. You know,
production goes up and it increases, and then it hits
up maximum and it starts back down. And we just

(26:03):
may be reaching that point now where all the easy
oil has been drilled and it's not going to be
able to keep up anymore.

Speaker 2 (26:11):
Well, Robert, let's take a quick break. When we return,
I want to get on China and their oil demand.
You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show, and we'll
be right back.

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Speaker 7 (27:22):
And we're back.

Speaker 2 (27:22):
You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show. My guest
today is editor in chief of Shell Magazine, Robert Raypier. Robert,
I think there is some confusion. I'm sorry. I want
to drill a little bit further down into the US
shell play. There's a lot of investment, as we mentioned
a little bit earlier in the show, of the majors
continuing to invest in the most profitable shell play, which

(27:46):
is Permium basin area. So if they are purchasing and
acquiring assets out there, yet it appears that the shell
is plateauing. How can we be having both What is
happening out there?

Speaker 3 (28:00):
Well, I mean they're looking at production is going to
continue to be probably at a high level for many
many years. It just may not continue to grow. But
if it, you know, it's not going to fall off
a cliff tomorrow or next year or even you know,
five years from now, it's going to start to decline potentially.

(28:20):
But if it starts to decline, you're probably going to
see prices start to go up. So potentially the majors
that are investing there, they know this, and they could
potentially make as much money on fewer bearers. And we've
seen that happen before. We've seen, you know, when there
is a shortage. We've seen you know, countries and companies

(28:41):
make more money producing less oil just because there's not
enough out there on the market.

Speaker 2 (28:46):
Let's talk about China. Earlier in my opening, I discussed
that there's also China who has a very large oil
demand that's evolving. Can you tell us, you know, how
is China still continuing to evolve in this picture with
their demand? Where are they at in this conflict as well?
They seem to be very quiet, So tell us a
little bit about what your thoughts are on Chinas that oil.

Speaker 3 (29:08):
Will One thing is a lot of the Iran's barrels.
You know, we tried to put sanctions on a RAM.
A lot of those Iranian barrels do end up in China,
and I think people don't realize it. It's not common knowledge.
China is one of the top ten oil producers in
the world. You know, they produce a lot of oil,
but they also demand a lot of oil, and that

(29:29):
demand has been growing for many, many years, and it
is still growing as the Chinese, you know, the people
are trying to move into the middle class and as
you move up, you use more energy. And so even
though China has very aggressive electric vehicle mandates and policies,

(29:52):
oil oil demand there continues to grow. And we're going
to see the release of the statistical review next week.
That happens once a year in June. It's a very
much anticipated. It used to be BEP statistical review, and
BP turned it over to the Energy Institute. We'll find
out next week a lot more about you know, China's

(30:15):
oil consumption last year and kind of where that's headed.
But you know, I think it continues to go higher.
I think that, more than anything else, drove oil prices
in the first decade of this century. I think we saw,
you know, oil prices go from twenty dollars to you know,
by two thousand and eight, well over one hundred dollars.
A lot of that was Chinese demand growing along with

(30:39):
a stagnant global supply that was before shale kicked in
and kind of kind of tempered prices eventually. But Chinese
demand has a very big impact on the global market.

Speaker 2 (30:52):
So then let's look at oil prices what they look
like potentially in late twenty twenty into twenty twenty six.
I want you to give us your thoughts on what
you see at these prices right now, and then what
happens should the US get involved in this war we

(31:14):
slip into it somehow, what happens is that going to
affect it any differently. So tell us what you see
coming down the pike for oil prices for twenty twenty five.

Speaker 3 (31:26):
Well, let me tell you first that I see natural
gas a lot easier to predict because natural gas demand
is continuing to grow. We're seeing more LNG exports, We're
seeing huge demand from AI data centers the power to
feed those. So I think if I look at natural gas,
I say, I think that's an easy one. Unless US

(31:47):
natural gas production expands enormously, it is going to have
a hard time keeping up with demand, and we're going
to see higher natural gas prices. So oil is a
lot harder oil. I think if US shaw is starting
to plateau and there's so many more variables here, I mean,
is Chinese demand actually going to be curtailed with all

(32:10):
the electric vehicle policies that they have over there? Is
that going to slow their growth? But then behind China,
you've got all these other Southeast Asian countries that are
rapidly increasing demand, and you've got the Middle East as
rapidly increasing demand. I mean, Saudi Arabia's demand now is
quite high. You know a lot of developing countries, you

(32:31):
have billions of people just increasing their oil consumption by
a little bit. And if there's a shortfall in production,
I mean, I think we still have a little bit
of extra capacity. I think opek plus is sitting on
a little extra capacity. But if it becomes clear that
US shale supply has plateaued or you know, starts to decline,

(32:55):
I then we'll see steadily increasing oil prices and we'll
see you know, I've seen forecasts that say lower OLL
prices next year, not if shale it's plateaued and it's
clear the shale shale productions going down, I don't see
lower OLL prices in I see oil prices increasing for
the rest of the decade.

Speaker 2 (33:17):
Interesting, does it change if we do find our way
in this conflict and we get involved in it and
it's not just an isolated strike, but some or another
we get tied into it. Does that affect the prices differently? Again?

Speaker 3 (33:31):
Yeah, there'll be a bigger fear premium if we get
dragged into something, especially if it starts to spread. I'm
hoping they get something worked out here. And this is
limited because you really don't want to see a major
conflict in the Middle East and what that can do
to global prices and just the stability of the region overall.

Speaker 2 (33:55):
You know, that's the one thing. This is a little
bit off of oil and gas topic, but just looking
at it, you know, there's a reason why they cannot
obtain nuclear bombs because they are so unst mentally unstable.
They are facing total annihilation and they still say they're
going to fight. You just can't reason with people who

(34:19):
just won't think logically, And I think that's President Trump's
frustration with them is like they told you to, you know,
come to the table, and they just refuse to. Which
is pretty scary to think that somebody, you know, people
who think like this would actually be able to acquire
an atomic bomb and think that they wouldn't use it.
They're going to use it. They are going to use it.

(34:41):
So that's just Kim's thought of, like, I think we
need a regardless, it's just for the future to make
sure that they never get their hands on that. Ever,
let's take a quick break. When we return, I want
to talk a little bit about covers that you guys
have been doing working on who were past cover of
Shell magazine Who's the Future, and catch up a little

(35:03):
bit on some of the stories you've been writing for Forbes.
You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.

Speaker 5 (35:07):
Will be right back.

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Speaker 2 (36:13):
And We're back. You're listening to the Energy Mixed radio show.
My guest today is editor in chief of Shell Magazine,
Robert rape Peter. Robert, I had a personal thought on
how much I think that what I think we should
be doing is not allowing this regime to have any

(36:33):
capacity of having any access to a nuclear bomb. That's
my thoughts, and I'd like to give you an opportunity
to respond as well.

Speaker 3 (36:43):
What are your thoughts on so I would say I
would have said the same thing about North Korea. We
cannot allow North Korea to get a nuclear weapons.

Speaker 2 (36:51):
Agree with you on that one too.

Speaker 3 (36:52):
They did, They did get it. I don't know. I
don't know if you can keep that genie in the
bottle forever. You never want to the unstable regimes have
nuclear weapons. But unstable regimes have nuclear weapons today, and
you know it's kind of hard to stop that. You know.
I think Pakistan has nuclear weapons, and you know they're

(37:14):
not the friendliest. Know I think the US considers are
the allies. They harded Osama bin Laden. They you know,
there are a lot of bad people there. And you
know India next door has nuclear weapons and that's probably
you know, the biggest riskiest hot spot in the world.
But if Iran had nuclear weapons, then Israel every day
has to worry about a nuclear weapon being dropped on them.

(37:37):
I will say this. When I worked in Scotland for
Conicle Phillips in the North Sea, I had multiple Iranian
engineers work for me, and I'd say as a people,
there are great people, friendly, very very nice to deal with.
I used to get invited all the time back to
Tehran one of my engineers to go stay with his family,

(37:59):
and I never did because we had a travel ban
on And of course I was a little bit nervous
too about going into a country whose leadership views America
with hostility. And I think that's still the case, but
I wouldn't say the average Iranian feels that way. Now.
May be different if we get into a conflict over there,

(38:19):
you know, they may change their minds. But I'd say
the average Iranian has a decent view of Americans. And
I'd say the average Iranian is pretty nice people from
my experience. It's just the leadership that's.

Speaker 2 (38:32):
An issue, right, And I do agree with you on that.
A lot of the media reports discuss how the citizens
do not support what's happening and does not support the leadership.
They want to be modernized, and they want to be
involved and be involved in the world and not be
surrounded by these people that just you know, unfortunately have

(38:55):
them in a very negative place all the time with war, war,
war and suicide bombings and all that other stuff. I
want to talk to a little bit about the past
covers that you've had as well on Shell magazine. Tell
us about the last one that I believe you wrote
on the Trump administration's previous administrations of your viewpoints of

(39:16):
how you saw them and currently now. And I think
you had the honorable James compos also way in since
he was with the first administration and is now with
the second administration too. Tell us a little about that cover.

Speaker 3 (39:31):
Right, So what I did with that was a little
bit different in that I, since President Trump's term was split,
I took a look at his first term, the energy
policies as he did, what happened with oil and gas,
and then I squeezed Biden in there and said, okay,
here's what Biden came in and overturned in the direction
he took. And I thought that was important to frame

(39:51):
because then President Trump came back in he undid a
lot of those things that Biden did, and he pivoted
back again in a different direction. So you know, I
covered those. I did interview James Campos, who was Assistant
Secretary and Director of Department Energy during President Trump's first term.
You know, he provided some inside color as to what

(40:15):
that was like, you know, serving under Donald Trump. You know,
his first term was fossil fuel revival. But you know,
we had he when he came into office, we were
still had a very active shale boom, and I often said,
you know, the best thing you can do is just
not steer the train off the rails here and just
you know, keep keep the good times coming. Then they

(40:37):
deregulated a bit. Oil production continued to grow. We produced
more oil, you know, across this term. You know, across
Obama's two terms, we had a record amount of oil increase.
Across President Trump, they continue to increase, and then Biden
it increased again. And I think this year we will

(40:58):
see another oil production record. So you know, we're halfway
through the year. I think this year we'll see the
most oil production in history. I wasn't ready to call
that at the beginning of the year because there was
just so much uncertainty. But now you know, we're running
two point six percent ahead of last year's record year
to date, and I think therefore we will likely see

(41:21):
another production record this year. Now next year, I all
bet you're off because of this plateauing. I don't, you know,
I just don't see as sharply moving higher from here.
The one thing that could change that is for all
prices and I'm going a lot higher. But you're seeing
capital expenditure start to you know, be rained in. You're
seeing drilling rigs fall, you know, all that is conducive

(41:45):
to you know, oil production, you know, being moderate from here,
maybe a little higher, maybe a little lower, but not
dramatically higher as we are used to seeing in recent years.

Speaker 2 (41:56):
Very good. And I understand that you are working on
the new cover that you'll be releasing very soon, and
I think it's an important cover too, because it's taking
us a little bit out of you know, what is
oil doing and administration, and you're taking a look at
a company that is in a transition of their own,

(42:19):
but an amazing one. So tell us about who is
the cover that you're working on right now, and can
you give us a little bit of a sneak peak
of what we might see in your next issue.

Speaker 6 (42:30):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (42:30):
So this, uh, this one was is a story about
Pierce Norton, the CEO of One Oak, and it's about
you know, the evolution of One Oak and about Pierce
Norton's leadership style. It's a very interesting story in that
you know, they really have a big strategy of building

(42:51):
something there that you know they've done a lot of deals,
but you know, we go into the strategy behind the
deal and how they actually make those deals work. One
of those deals affected me because you know we at
Investing Daily, Magell and Ministring Partners was one of our
portfolio holdings. So you know that acquisition benefited subscribers there

(43:15):
Investing Daily. That was a big acquisition and you know,
I wouldn't have guessed that one of would buy the
Magella Mistry and Partners, but you know they did and
they're integrating them now. As Pierce Norton explained, it brought
them high cash flow and with low reinvestment, and that
helps counterbalat some of the capital heavy parts of their business.

(43:36):
So you know, it's the story's done. I've been fact
checked and proofred, so you know, I guess we'll see
it out there, you know, pretty soon.

Speaker 2 (43:46):
Yes, very soon. I think you all are scheduled to
release in about a week from now. And I think
what I loved about the story was he was very
open about how this transition the strategic planning. Like you said,
I I think you have access to a strategic plan
that is probably only going to be found in Shell magazine.
That was part of why they wanted to tell the

(44:08):
story and get it out there, was because it's a
trusted source us you writing this story. But also they
were willing to go and talk specifically about the strategy
because if I'm not mistaken, I think it went from
a thirty billion dollar company to pretty close to a
sixty billion overnight with all of this acquiring. So it's
a big job. And I opened up to you and
told you the story. So I encourage the listeners to

(44:31):
read all about the next issue. Piercemorton, one Oak CEO
and Shell Magazine. Robert, that is all the time we
have for today. Thank you for joining me, coming in
and talking to us about Iran, Israel, the strait of
her move, China Opek plus Allen g and debunking that
there's no such thing as Toyota water cars. Thank you

(44:51):
for joining me on today's show.

Speaker 3 (44:53):
Absolutely.

Speaker 1 (44:54):
The Energy Mix Radio Show is where we explore topics
that affect us all in the oil and gas industry.
Every week, our hosts will interview the movers and shakers
in this fast paced industry. You'll hear from industry experts,
elected officials, and many more on the Energy Mix Radio Show.