Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the nationally syndicated Energy Mix Radio Show, produced
by the Energy Network Media Group. The Energy Mix Radio
Show will give you an inside look at the energy
industry and how it affects you by talking with industry leaders, experts,
and government officials on the Energy Mix Radio Show.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
And welcome back to the Energy Mix Radio Show, where'll
be cut through the noise and get straight to the
facts shaping our energy future. I'm your host, Kimbalatto, and
it's time for our most anticipated monthly segment with Robert Rapier,
the editor in chief of Shell Magazine and a senior
contributor at Forbes, and also one with one of the
sharpest minds in energy analysis. Some of Robert's recent articles
(00:39):
have tackled everything from looming power grade crisis to real
stories behind falling gas prices. He's not just reporting, he's
decoding the trends that matter today. And today we'll unpack
all of his latest insights, explore what is driving oil
and gas markets, and talk about the technology and policies
that could make or break our energy infrastructure. So let's
(01:00):
get into it. Robert, Welcome back to the Energy Mix
Radio Show.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
Thanks Kim. Always a pleasure to be here.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
I'm so happy you're on. There's a lot to cover.
But Robert, before we dive into energy markets, I want
to acknowledge the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk this week.
It has shaken the media and political communities, and it
has raised serious questions about public safety, discourse, and the
role of high powered voices in shaping national conversations. And
(01:27):
from your perspective, as someone who writes extensively on energy
policy and infrastructure, do you see any implications for how
we can protect public figures, host events, and manage risk
in high visibility sectors like energy and the media.
Speaker 4 (01:45):
Well, first of all, I yeah, my heart goes out
to Charlie Kirk's family and friends, and you know, this
was a senseless tragedy. You know, the political violence has
just ramped up over the past few years. You know,
the uh Speaker of the House in Minnesota was assassinated
(02:06):
her husband.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
And she was a Democrat. Charlie Kirk is Republican. So
it's crossing.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Breck, correct.
Speaker 4 (02:13):
I mean the Josh Shapiro is the Democratic governor of Pennsylvania.
His house was set on fire when when he was home,
So uh, it's been happening a lot. You know, Nancy
Pelosi's husband got attacked and beaten with a hammer. It's
it's really it's something I think about a lot, because
you know, I I do get out and I give
(02:34):
public speeches, and I've gotten death threats before from people,
and I think about that a lot, you know, I
you know, Charlie Kirk was out in the open. You know,
nobody is going through any metal detectors. You know, the
guy was apparently a long distance away, and I think
about that often. You know, I've looked out over crowd
(02:55):
before and thought, is there somebody out here.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
Who I've angered?
Speaker 4 (02:59):
At one point, you know, I used to write a
lot of pieces about the ethanol industry and it would
anger ethanol producers. I even got put on an enemy's
list at one point, and they I used to think
about that. I had a farmer in Iowa threaten to
kill me. He said, if you ever set for an Eyowa,
I will blow your head off. And I thought about
that a lot. I don't know what we can do,
(03:23):
you know, even Charlie Kirk himself said, you know, this
is the price. A few desks is a price we're
going to have to pay for our freedom to bear arms.
And if if that's if that's the way it's going
to be, things like this are going to, unfortunately happen sometimes.
I don't I don't know what you can do about it.
(03:44):
I you know, I think about all the time. You know,
I'm outspoken on certain things, and I've made people mad.
Have ever mad made someone mad enough to kill me?
Speaker 3 (03:54):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (03:56):
You know, Charlie Kirk, he would get in there and
and really go after for people. And we still don't
know who did it. They've released a picture of this
of the suspect. I've seen that this morning. I was
trying to identify the shirt he was wearing. And if
somebody has identified that shirt, I mean he's wearing a
(04:16):
flag and an eagle on it and disabled veteran's shirt.
If if this is the guy, if the suspect is
the one, you know they have.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (04:26):
I My wife was in class yesterday and she she
was the first one to send me a link and said,
Charlie Kirk's been shot. No no idea how he is.
And I clicked on that link and I knew immediately
he wasn't gonna make it.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
I said that is that is a bad, bad wound.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
And and you know, after that, I was just waiting
for them to announce, and I you know, it's a
it's a sad time we live in and everybody needs
to be trying to take the temperature down.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
But it's just getting ramped up.
Speaker 4 (05:02):
I mean this, we don't even know who did it,
and people are jumping to conclusions about, you know, why
they did it and motives and so forth and so on,
and you know, we need to take a step back.
And I said to a friend of mine who is
really fanning flames right now, I said, were you as
mad when, uh, you know, somebody assassinated a Minnesota congress person,
(05:27):
but what was a Democrat? You didn't say a word
about that. So if you're going to be angry about
political targeting, let's let's be equal opportunity here. Let's be
angry about everybody. Let's be angry about anyone getting shot,
you know, for voicing their body. And I had a
friend to his credit this morning I saw on Facebook
(05:47):
he said, I'm angry about this Charlie Kirk killing. And
he said, but I asked myself, would I have been
as angry if it had been somebody whose views I
didn't agree with, And he said, I don't think I
would have been. And he said, I'm going to pray
on that, because you know, we need to be angry
about any senseless killings like this, and and I commented
(06:08):
on it, and I said, that's that's the right attitude
we have to be.
Speaker 3 (06:12):
Uh, you know, this has to.
Speaker 4 (06:13):
Be condemned, no matter who's doing the shooting, no matter
who's being shot. We have to condemn this every time.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
Absolutely. I just feel that this is very different some
of these crimes. They do appear to be passion related.
When you set somebody's home on fire, you're really angry
and you're angry at that person their family. This did
not appear that way. This appeared to be a true
(06:39):
as assassin who was doing a job. That's just my thoughts.
And as far as us reporting on energy, and I
don't I don't think that if you're delivering information, again,
there's all these people that don't think the same way.
You know, who is going to talk about energy? Most
people don't even understand it. So we do rely on
(07:02):
experts like you and me to ask the questions, to
get them out there to educate. But I don't think
you and I come across as opinion pieces. We don't
sit here and say energy is bad or good. We
report on what is really happening. And I kind of
wanted to make that clear for our listeners and for
you know who and what we stand as a media group.
We're here to report, We're not here to give you
(07:23):
our opinions.
Speaker 4 (07:24):
But the people will still try to connect dots and
they'll say you said this, but I think you believe this,
and I'm against that, and I hate you because of that.
That happens a lot. I could say something as simple
as Phoenix is breaking heat records, and I will get angry.
(07:44):
I mean, this is fact, This is an absolute fact,
and I will get angry emails from people for stating
an absolute fact, because then they start to try to
connect the dots and they say, you have an agenda,
you know I we're recording this. This, We're recording us
on the morning of nine to eleven on Thursday. This
will broadcast earliest Sunday night. I'm guessing they will have
(08:08):
the guy by then, and maybe we'll learn a little
bit more about, you know, why did what he did.
Because they found they think they found the gun. They've
released pictures. I'm guessing that he can't he can't run
for Twothy. I would imagine there's going to be DNA
on that gun. I would imagine that. You know, they
(08:30):
said they've got a partial palm print. I think it's
just a matter of time. I think they will catch
this person relatively quickly, maybe by the time we go
to air.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Yeah, I hope so. And I think that what we
really need to be questioning ourselves is people keep calling
this a political assassination. But in reviewing all of the
stuff that Charlie Kirk talked a lot about, he was
talking more about religion than anything else. He would get
into politics, but his basic discussion was always talking more
on Christianity. And so I don't know if it was
(09:01):
silencing the voice of a political person or silencing the
voice of somebody who talked to universities about finding God
and understanding God more. I don't know. That'll be interesting
to see what the motive was. But let's move on.
I'd like to get one energy question before we have
to go to our first break. Robert, your latest piece
in Show magazine that also was similar to a piece
(09:24):
that you released in Forbes magazine warns of the potential
power grid crisis in the US. We'll it's driving the
surge in this demand and are utilities prepared to handle it?
As we're hearing a lot about AI and access to energy,
tell us a little bit about the surging demand.
Speaker 4 (09:43):
So the biggest thing driving demand right now is the
AI data centers. I mean the.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
AI right now, the chat box.
Speaker 4 (09:52):
They're on exponential growth and every query you make consumes energy.
And the utilities were not prepared for this. That's the
biggest thing.
Speaker 3 (10:02):
You know, utilities have.
Speaker 4 (10:03):
To plan years ahead, and when you suddenly have this
demand driver, then you know they can't respond quickly enough.
And after the break, I'll point out an analog. The
same thing happened in the oil industry, and I'll talk
about that after the break, because you know we've seen
this movie.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Before well and it is a pretty linky answer to
because embedded in that also, as you mentioned, the utility
utility companies were not quite ready for this as it
came on and the surge of the demand. But I
really would like to break down more so our listeners
get an understanding AI data centers how they are stripping,
(10:43):
you know, stripping the grid or you know, putting so
much pressure on already a very thin margin of already
producing enough energy, and how this is coming in and
making a situation more so, I want to drill down
to facts. Let's take a quick break. You're listening to
the Energy Mixed radio show and we'll be right back.
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Speaker 2 (13:00):
And we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.
My guest today is the infamous editor in chief of
Shell Magazine, Robert Rapier. And Robert, we're covering some of
the recent articles that you have put out on shellmag
dot com and Forbes Magazine. We were talking before the
break a little bit about power grid crisis in the
(13:22):
US and how the demand is surging and our utilities
prepared to handle it, and you kind of went into
a little bit of a short answer. So I'm going
to give you the opportunity to talk about that, and
then I want to move into how AI data centers
are straining the grid as well, so our listeners get
an understanding of how much pressure is being put on
the grid now with GPT chat and copilot.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
So yeah, let me.
Speaker 4 (13:46):
I'll take you back about twenty five years. We've seen
this movie before in the oil industry in the early
two thousands. You know, the oil industry, it takes years
for them to execute projects, and they look out and
they forecast demand and they you know, at the time
(14:06):
in the early two thousands, this was before the fracking boom,
OPEK was controlling the market, and what nobody foresaw was
the surgeon demand that was going to come from China
over the next ten years or so. And so we
saw this unforecast huge surgeon demand that started eating up
(14:28):
all the excess capacity in the oil industry, and that
led to a lot of you know, speculation about peak
oil that okay, global oil production is about to be
on the decline at the same time Chinese demand is rising,
and so there was a lot of speculation, but there
were literal you know, the excess capacity to market shrunk,
(14:51):
and we saw oil prices, you know, go from about
twenty dollars a barrow and two thousand all the way
up to one hundred and nearly one hundred fifty dollars
a barrel by two thousand and eight. So we saw
a massive increase in oil prices, and that was because
OPEC did not foresee that Chinese demand. Now, fortunately, the
(15:13):
shale revolution was taking place in the background and it
would start to turn the curve on US oil producers
in two thousand and eight. You know, we had been
declining in oil production in the US since nineteen seventy,
but in two thousand and eight, as the shale boom
started to pay dividends, that curve turned back upward, and
(15:34):
we'd still be dealing with one hundred dollars oil for
the next several years. But ultimately the huge surge in
oil production would break that one hundred dollars barrel and
it would break OPEC's hold over the world's oil markets.
So we saw several years of pain. I think that's
what we're going to see in the power sector. I
(15:55):
think we're looking at several years of pain. I don't
think they can ramp up fast enough. Power is not
as fungible as oil.
Speaker 3 (16:04):
That means we.
Speaker 4 (16:05):
Can't get it from overseas like we could get oil.
I know that, you know certain I talked about NRG before.
That's one of our portfolio holdings at Utility Forecast. I
recommend this several years ago, and it's up more than
four hundred percent since we added it, just you know,
three or four years ago. And that's because they produce
competitive power and they are able to sell out there
(16:28):
to the highest bidder some of their power. And there
are several power producers like that. But that means higher
power prices for everybody, you know, and a lot of
places you're dealing with this, I'd noted before. One place
that's not dealing with it is here where I'm at
in Phoenix, because we've got a nuclear power plant here
and that is able to supply steady power. My power
(16:49):
bill in July was about the same as it was
the past two years. Wasn't much changed.
Speaker 3 (16:55):
But I've talked to.
Speaker 4 (16:56):
People in Ohio, people in Kentucky, and they said, my
power bill has gone up two and three times what
it was. And you know, that's a function of the
AI Data centers. It's a function of us exporting LNG,
which is used to make power. You know, we use
natural gas to make power, and that has helped drive
up natural gas prices over the past year. So those
(17:19):
are some of the factors now that I think the
single biggest one, though, is just the demand surge from
the AI data centers.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
Well, let's talk about that. And you highlighted that the
role that AI Data centers that they're basically straining the grid,
as you've mentioned, Can you can we drill down a
little bit on that and explain how these facilities are
reshaping the electricity consumption so much to the point you've
mentioned it's raising the bills for US consumers, But are
(17:47):
we looking at potentially blackouts? Is it going to get
that bad? And then can we drill down into like
maybe Texas or Pennsylvania once I believe these are states
that are and be really looking at producing the amount
of grid that we need to continue to support AI
(18:08):
data center. So who's in charge of that or which
states are going to be the ones that are going
to be the hardest hip by this? How does this
play out big picture?
Speaker 3 (18:17):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (18:17):
I think the states are going to be the hardest
hits are the ones that do not.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
Have a diverse power supply.
Speaker 4 (18:23):
I think the ones that don't have a nuclear power
plant like we do here. You know, that's if you're
if you're dependent on something like natural gas that can
be very volatile, and with US exporting LNG, that price
has been rising over the past year. That's not as
high as it was a few years ago. But a
(18:45):
few years ago we didn't have all these AD data
centers going in. So now we've got the compounded problem
of higher demand and a rising natural gas price and
that is contributing, you know, and these A data centers.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Are going in all over the place.
Speaker 4 (18:59):
A lot. I'm going in Virginia and that area. They're
seeing a lot of demand for power there. You know,
we don't think about it when we you know, I
you may google something and you don't think about that
as consuming power. But when we do these queries with AI,
it consumes power. They have to crunch and they have
(19:21):
to you know, come up with an answer. You know,
they they've been they've been trained. I found out yesterday
my book was one of the ones that was trained.
The chat GPT was trained on. There's a yeah, there
is a database out there. I guess there's a proposed
settlement with the company behind chat GPT because they've used
(19:43):
all these authors' works without.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
Paying for them.
Speaker 4 (19:45):
And you could go in and you could search and
see if your book was used, and mine was. It
was one of the ones that was used to train
these ais. And so when you put a query in,
it's going in and it's sipping through all that information
and it's you know, spitting out an answer. But at
the same time, it consumed some energy. And we've got
you know, people are relying heavier and heavier on this
(20:07):
and and ely, that's that's what's happening. And there's no
quick fix to this. Are we looking at blackouts?
Speaker 2 (20:16):
You know?
Speaker 4 (20:17):
If we're past peak summer demand, so we're probably uh
we have another year probably before things get really dire again.
But when we hit these summer heat waves and we're
hitting all this high demand from the AI data centers,
that's where you could get potential blackouts. I mean, there's
all kinds of other factors here that could lead to blackouts,
(20:39):
but you know, one of them is just a strained
grid and the AI data centers on top of that.
But fortunately, you know, we're headed into the cooler part
of the year and that will uh you know, take
demand down a bit.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
Well, Robert, when we get back from break, I want
to get into falling downs prices, but I also want
to look up between and tell our listeners just how
much one of their GPT chats searches, how much energy
it uses. We're taking a quick break. You're listening to
the Energy Mix Radio show, and we'll be right back,
and we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mix Radio Show.
(21:14):
My guest today is editor in chief Robert Raypier and
energy expert Robert. Before the break, we were talking about
the amount of consumption and the strain on the grid
by all of these energy Copilot, Chat GPT, the AI
data centers and what it means for us. And we
know it's already increasing our utility bills due to their consumption.
(21:35):
But I want to give our listeners an understanding before
we move into energy or oil and gas specific energy topics.
Give us a visual like when I go in and
I use Copilot for something versus Google, which, by the way,
I admit I completely walked away from Google. I don't
even need Google anymore except just GPT. Chat does everything
(21:57):
how much consumption and energy just used now that I've
walked away from Google searches and now used Copilot.
Speaker 4 (22:06):
So I just contributed to the problem a little bit
because during the break, I asked chat GPT about the
electricity consumption from chat GPT queries, and it spit out
a lot of information and gave me a lot of references.
But I said, let's put that in terms of an
average city. So chat GPT says their queries right now
(22:26):
are three hundred and ten giga one hours per year,
which won't mean anything to most people. But I said,
put that in terms of a city, and I said
that is roughly the annual electricity consumption of a city
of about eighty thousand people, So just chat GPT queries.
We're not talking about other ais, and that doesn't include
the cooling and all the infrastructure around it. That is
(22:49):
just the electricity being consumed by people asking chat GPT questions.
So that's like adding an eighty thousand person city just
for chat g So that's where the strain is coming from.
Speaker 2 (23:04):
Wow. Wow, all right, something that definitely keep an eye
our eye on, and I'm glad you're writing about it
and explain it as we go. In August, your article
you explored why gas prices are falling and it's really
about surging US energy production or are they deeper global
(23:26):
forces at play here. One of the things I want
to back up though and talk about, I think we
mentioned this in our previous show, was how you had
appeared on a national CBS to talk about Trump, the
Trump administration's energy policies and drill, baby drill, and how
(23:46):
it's not necessarily really working out well for the oil
and gas industry, and you kind of explained how this
is just you know, what you hear is not what
you're seeing. This is kind of what we're talking about.
Why you're exploring gas prices are falling, but is it
really about the surging US oil production? Tell me a
little bit about that is how does that work the
(24:09):
interview you were talking about with President Trump, and how
this is not quite what it's Are we facing this
again with this global prices that are falling.
Speaker 4 (24:17):
So let's connect some dots here. So, the oil industry
likes a lot of the policies that President Trump has passed,
but ultimately their decision to drill or not to drill
is based on their outlook for oil prices. So whether
so they will factor those new policies into those decisions.
But you know, President Trump could get up tomorrow and
(24:38):
say I need you guys to drill more, and nobody's
going to drill more unless they think it's economically viable
for them. You know, conical felts just announce they're laying
off five percent of their workforce or something like that.
You know, my former employer, that's because they foresee lower
oil prices, and lower oil prices are not good for
(24:58):
the oil industry in the US. So drill, baby, drill
as a slogan, it doesn't work to increase drilling unless
it's somehow you know, increased gas price or increased oil prices,
and it's not doing that. It's not designed to do that.
So all companies are drilling based on, you know, their
(25:19):
outlook for oil prices and their outlook for all prices lower.
So we're seeing recounts fall. Now. We did see oil
production start to fall a couple of months ago. We
had several weekly declines, but I noticed this week we're
back right up at record territories. So we're right back
up near record. That's always the weeklies are always subject
(25:40):
to revision. But we're still producing, you know, at or
near record amounts. But OPEC has decided they're going to
produce more oil. Now that's not good for the US
oil and gas industry, and it's not good for America overall.
It's good for consumers who don't want to pay as
much for gasoline, but the long term implications are lower
oil production in the US and we will ultimately be
(26:03):
paying more and more of it will be coming from OPEC.
I mean, that's the implications of low oil prices in
the US.
Speaker 2 (26:11):
And they've done this before. In between some of the
heights of the Shell Revolution too correct, correct, and it
was a way of really clearing the playing field, of
getting rid of small operators and only the big guys
we're going to survive. Maybe this is a repeat of that.
When we get back from break, I want to talk
about the retirement of baseload power sources like coal and
(26:32):
natural gas, and talking about renewables as well. You're listening
to the Energy Mixed radio show.
Speaker 4 (26:37):
Will be right back.
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Speaker 2 (27:11):
And we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.
My guest today is energy expert and editor of Shell magazine,
Robert Raybier. Robert, you have written about the retirement of
baseload power sources like coal and natural gas. Are renewable
scaling fast enough to fill the gap and are we
heading for reliability issues? Because I want you to also
(27:37):
talk about the IRA and how a lot of that
got pulled back, specifically pertaining to renewables. So we're going
to start seeing them kind of fall off the radar,
if you will. The ones that already in existence, Do
they have enough to scale fast enough for us? What
is in right now that we are continuing to either
use or what we're going to build out, Tell me
(27:58):
about what you see coming retaining.
Speaker 4 (28:00):
Yeah. One of the things I always do whenever the
statistical review is released every June is look at the
demand growth and energy overall, and then look at how
much renewables grow. And always overall demand growth is growing
faster than renewables group. So that means fossil fuels still
(28:23):
have to grow or we're going to have a supply shortage.
So we are we are shutting down a lot of
coal this year. We're shutting down the EIA projects. Twelve
point three gigawats of capacity will shut down this year.
That's sixty five percent more than last year. Most of
that's cold, but you know there's a decent chunk of
(28:45):
natural gas in there, and natural gas it's far cleaner
power source than coal.
Speaker 5 (28:51):
Is.
Speaker 4 (28:52):
I absolutely don't believe we should be shutting down natural
gas the intermittent sources like wind and solar. Natural gas
pairs very well with that because these plants can be
cycled up and down very quickly. But the question was,
you know, are renewables scaling up fast enough? No, they're
not scaling up fast enough. You know, one thing, one
(29:14):
of my most recent are my second most recent article
in Forbes is about batteries. You know, we are ramping
up triple digit growth on utility scale batteries, and that's
something else that's needed. Uh, you know, if you're going
to put more renewables out there. You know, I was
in Hawaii when they started to run into grid issues
(29:36):
by all the solar they were putting on, and I
Hawaii Electric. I knew the CEO, and I've talked to
them a lot, and they said, look, we take a
lot of flak for this.
Speaker 3 (29:46):
But this is a legitimate issue.
Speaker 4 (29:48):
If we got all these houses that are on sower
and you know, suddenly it's cloudy. We are scrambling to
try to meet the demand. And he said it's causing
us a real, a real issue. So so there are
real issues use here. But I think renewable proponents think
it's just the industry, you know, throwing out smoke. But
it's you know, I have it on pretty good authority
(30:08):
that there are legitimate issues here on trying to put
too much, too much renewables on the grid too fast.
But batteries would help out a lot there. Uh, they
are scaling up pretty quickly, so we're gonna see a
lot more of that. We're going to see a lot
more big battery facilities in and arouse some of these
renewable facilities to try to damp out some of that intermittency.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
What about can can we talk quick quickly about the
projects that didn't get funded when President Trump this administration
removed some of the funding from from the Inflation Reduction Act.
How is that going to affect renewables? Just real quick?
Speaker 4 (30:48):
Yeah, no, it's not good for renewables. You know, they
pulled away funding from a lot of the you know,
my former company was working on hydrogen production and they
pulled away the hydrogen credits.
Speaker 3 (31:01):
You know, you have to be project has to be I.
Speaker 4 (31:04):
Think under construction now by twenty twenty eight or something
like that in order to qualify for any credits. I
think in the long run, I think we need renewables.
I think we need natural gas. I think we need
much more nuclear power. We need all of these sources,
and I don't think we should be pulling back funding
on some of these sources, you know, on a maybe
(31:27):
on some of the projects weren't worthy of being funded.
But I think overall, I think there's a real, you know,
negative effect on the overall growth trend of renewables going
forward in the US, and I don't think that's going
to help with our power shortages. Right.
Speaker 2 (31:43):
Well, it's kind of strange how we've flip flopped very
quickly from renewables to now we're looking at nuclear and
that's a whole other topic. I want to ask you
about cybersecurity and sabotage risk that are rising across the grid.
What vulnerability concerns do you have the most, and how
should states look at this. Texas has had a lot
(32:08):
of cybersecurity attacks in their municipalities as of recently, and
so I'm very interested to hear your thoughts on how
First of all, it's rising. They're going whoever these characters are,
there's probably a million of them, are definitely looking at
government agencies. They're more brazen than ever before. Tell me
(32:31):
a little bit about how you think that maybe, like
states like Texas, how should we look at cybersecurity and
sabotage risks?
Speaker 4 (32:37):
So, you know, a malevolent state actor could do a
lot of damage to our grid. And these attacks are
becoming more and more sophisticated. I know, when I used
to go in the office every day, it became farder
and harder to determine whether an email was legit. At times,
you know, I'd get an email supposedly from my CEO
(32:59):
with his email address, you know, asking me to do something,
and you know, I was always suspicious of any email.
But his office was just two doors down from mine.
So I got one of these emails today that looked
just like he sent it. And I walked down and
I said, did you just send me an email? He
said I did not, and I showed it to him,
and he was astonished at how sophisticated some of these
(33:23):
email attacks can be, and people are falling for them.
And they're getting you know, they're getting hard drives or
servers locked down until they pay, you know, a ransom.
I mean there are lots of companies and states and
cities have had to pay ransom because one person, you know,
(33:44):
was gullible enough to click on one of these emails
and got the whole system locked down. So you have
to be thinking about that from from individuals. You don't
want an individual to have the ability to lock your
system down because it clicked on the wrong link and
you know, sent a virus out into the system. But
you know that's happening more and more. You know, it's
(34:07):
just a matter of time before people are using and
they may be doing it now, using some of these
ais to create better viruses.
Speaker 2 (34:16):
Right. Well, you know before we heading to break So
we had a county Nuasis County, uh came out in
the media here in Texas and I know you're in Arizona.
They were robbed two million dollars. Now, working with Frost
Bank and of course their local authorities, it looks like
they're going to recover the full amount. But basically what
(34:37):
it was was their policies. They hadn't reviewed them in
a long time. On how they process online payments. That
is something that I think all city and county offices
should be looking at that. And they went back to
good old pen and paper writing out checks as opposed
to those online. But that still doesn't we still didn't
get into if they can do that in companies and
(35:00):
they can do that and stealing money online from county offices,
what can they do to the grid and how can
they potentially sabotage What risk are there? Are they vulnerable
in the way of potentially blowing up a grid? And
you know there's a lot there. I want to talk
about that, and I want to talk about the shortage
of skilled electricians and the bottle like that's producing. When
(35:23):
we come back from break, you're listening to the Energy
Mixed radio show. We'll be right back.
Speaker 5 (35:29):
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Speaker 2 (36:02):
And we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.
My guest today is editor in chief of Shell Magazine,
Robert Rapier. Robert, you know, as we were discussing in
the previous segment cyber security and sabotage risk, I want
to bring it back to the grid specifically, because if
they can attack and steal money from county offices and companies,
(36:27):
what can they potentially do to the grid. Are these
at risks to our energy supplies?
Speaker 3 (36:33):
Yeah, I think we got to be careful.
Speaker 4 (36:35):
We don't give anybody ideas, but there is a lot
of physical infrastructure out there that is remote, that is,
you know, maybe not well guarded. I used to work
at an oil refinery and I'm not going to give
the location, but a friend and I used to muse
(36:56):
that somebody could get up above that refinery very easily
and you know, hit a gasoline tank and just you know,
take the whole refinery out. And it was hard to
imagine how you could protect against that if somebody got
the right kind of weapon there. And there's a lot
of grid infrastructure like that that's uh, you know, transfer
(37:18):
stations and remote locations. The power plants themselves, you know,
like a nuclear power plant is quite secure, you know
from physical attack, but a lot of the infrastructure out there,
the power lines, they I mean, you know, coordinated attack
could do some serious damage. Yeah, and it's you know,
the the United States is so large and so much
(37:41):
rural area that this infrastructure is running through, it's really
hard to protect against.
Speaker 2 (37:46):
Well, that's that's kind of why I said when we
looked at all these other companies that had gotten hit
through some kind of cyber attack and or sabotage, it
keeps coming back to and this is why you and
I are having this discussion, is maybe the grid needs to
be reevaluated period to see that they are not in
(38:06):
any way potentially vulnerable to that, and they need to
look at that. Robert, let's look at your analysis of
the historical oil production trends. It was eye opening. And
so do you see the current administration's policies influencing US
output for the next twelve months.
Speaker 4 (38:27):
I don't, I mean, there will be some impact at
the margin, but you know, nothing is going to impact
it like the price of oil. That's going to have
the single biggest factor on oil production over the next
twelve months, so the next twenty four months. You know,
the policies are more pro energy for sure, more profilessil fuel,
(38:51):
and the oil industry likes that. But the only way
it affects them is when they do the economics and
they see how is this pos A going to affect
our price per barrel, our cost per barrel, And that's what's.
Speaker 3 (39:05):
Going to determine whether they drill or not.
Speaker 4 (39:07):
And right now, the outlook for oil prices next year
is lower. And although we're almost certainly going to set
another oil production record this year, that would be our
I believe, our third in a row, I don't see
that happening next year. I think we're going to see
all production decline next year just on the basis of
(39:27):
oil prices, I don't think and drilling and the recount.
You know, the recount's been falling all year.
Speaker 3 (39:33):
I don't think.
Speaker 4 (39:34):
It's supportive of oil production at this level a year
from now.
Speaker 2 (39:39):
Well, and you do tend to look ahead a lot
and write on that so you know, you just said
I'm going to be looking at this and that. What
is the single most important metric that you use that
singles that you you know, the metric or the signal
that you're watching to gauge the health of the US
energy sectors. So we can be watching it too.
Speaker 3 (39:57):
What brought the price of oil? You know, the price
of oil? That that's it.
Speaker 4 (40:00):
You you know, there are different things to look at,
Like you can look at inventory levels to tell okay,
we're liable to have a gasoline price spike. And I've
told friends and family before, I've said, look, you know,
gasoline inventories are low, and there's a hurricane bearing down,
you better go fill up because gas prices are probably
going to be twenty since higher, you know, a week
(40:22):
from now. But for overall long term trends, you've got
to look at the oil price currently and the projections,
and then you need to look at the rig count.
If the rig count is falling all year, which it
has been a year from now, two years from now,
that is going to that is going to show up.
(40:43):
And and I think that's that's what we've got to
look at. And you know, right now, I'm not optimistic
that old price is going to be higher, especially with
OPEC out there once again. You know, they did it
a decade ago, and I called it Opex trillion dollar miscalculation.
Now was my first viral article I ever wrote for Forbes,
and CNBC had me on to discuss that article, and
(41:07):
I said, it's this, This is going to cost OPEC
a trillion dollars and it ultimately did. It cost OPEC
a trillion dollars by having a price war against US
shale producers, which didn't knock them out of business. I mean,
they came out of that stronger than ever. Now, some
did get squeezed out, but a lot of them, you know,
they did belt tightening and they became more fiscally disciplined,
(41:29):
and you know, they were stronger as a result of it.
And OPEK finally, you know, and I don't know, twenty
sixteen or twenty seventeen, they threw in the towel and
they said, Okay, we're not.
Speaker 3 (41:39):
Going to do that anymore.
Speaker 4 (41:40):
We're going to go ahead and go back to defending price.
And then you saw prices start to recover.
Speaker 2 (41:46):
And they're making this announcement again, and so we're going
to watch this again and see how this goes. But
let's talk about non OPEC countries like Brazil and Guyana
and are they hitting They are hitting record production. So
is the US still leading the hack or are we
losing ground?
Speaker 4 (42:02):
Now? We're still leading the pack in both oil and
natural gas, and we will continue to do so for years.
I mean, it's going to take a while before you know,
even the worst case scenario, if US oil production starts
to decline, we'll probably see it decline similar to the
rate it increased over the past few years. And at
that rate, we're years away from seating the number one
(42:25):
oil production you know, the title of number one oil
producer in the world'll it'll be years, We'll we'll keep
that title for years.
Speaker 2 (42:33):
Still, what about global inventory? They're rising fast, especially in China,
So could this lead to oversupply and then price polatile
tea heading into the fourth quarter.
Speaker 4 (42:44):
That's some of why prices have softened because in the tories,
you know, China's got a strategic reserve and they're apparently
you know, it's full or close to full, so they're
slowing down their purchases. China is putting pushing out electric
cars as fast as they can, and that's expected to
impact upon oil demand and so all those things. If
(43:05):
you take China out as a you know, as an
oil a growing oil importer, that really has implications on
where the oil markets look like they're headed in the
next few years.
Speaker 2 (43:16):
Let's talk about the US tariffs and trade policy that
are back in the spotlight, and how are these macroeconomic
levers affecting oil and gas price investment decisions. This is
right up your alley.
Speaker 4 (43:29):
Yeah, no, the all companies do not like the tariffs.
You know, anything that drives their costs up, they don't
like it. And it is driving a cost for equipment
and so forth. And I've heard a number of all
companies speak out and say, you know, we don't like
the tariffs. You know, we wish they go away, but
they are what they are, so they have to deal
with them. They have to live with them, and they
(43:49):
have to learn to adapt and you know, we'll see
where it goes. But it adds to their costs and
that's ultimately going to add to consumer costs.
Speaker 2 (44:00):
Very good, well, Robert, that is all the time we
have for this show. Thank you for joining me, and
I look forward to having you back. On next month.
Speaker 3 (44:07):
Thanks Jim.
Speaker 1 (44:08):
The Energy Mix Radio Show is where we explore topics
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(44:53):
ten two four ohs seven one eight eight. Again that's
two ten, two four ohs seventy one eighty eight
Welcome to the nationally syndicated Energy Mix Radio Show, produced
by the Energy Network Media Group. The Energy Mix Radio
Show will give you an inside look at the energy
industry and how it affects you by talking with industry leaders, experts,
and government officials on the Energy Mix Radio Show.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
And welcome back to the Energy Mix Radio Show, where'll
be cut through the noise and get straight to the
facts shaping our energy future. I'm your host, Kimbalatto, and
it's time for our most anticipated monthly segment with Robert Rapier,
the editor in chief of Shell Magazine and a senior
contributor at Forbes, and also one with one of the
sharpest minds in energy analysis. Some of Robert's recent articles
(00:39):
have tackled everything from looming power grade crisis to real
stories behind falling gas prices. He's not just reporting, he's
decoding the trends that matter today. And today we'll unpack
all of his latest insights, explore what is driving oil
and gas markets, and talk about the technology and policies
that could make or break our energy infrastructure. So let's
(01:00):
get into it. Robert, Welcome back to the Energy Mix
Radio Show.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
Thanks Kim. Always a pleasure to be here.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
I'm so happy you're on. There's a lot to cover.
But Robert, before we dive into energy markets, I want
to acknowledge the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk this week.
It has shaken the media and political communities, and it
has raised serious questions about public safety, discourse, and the
role of high powered voices in shaping national conversations. And
(01:27):
from your perspective, as someone who writes extensively on energy
policy and infrastructure, do you see any implications for how
we can protect public figures, host events, and manage risk
in high visibility sectors like energy and the media.
Speaker 4 (01:45):
Well, first of all, I yeah, my heart goes out
to Charlie Kirk's family and friends, and you know, this
was a senseless tragedy. You know, the political violence has
just ramped up over the past few years. You know,
the uh Speaker of the House in Minnesota was assassinated
(02:06):
her husband.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
And she was a Democrat. Charlie Kirk is Republican. So
it's crossing.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Breck, correct.
Speaker 4 (02:13):
I mean the Josh Shapiro is the Democratic governor of Pennsylvania.
His house was set on fire when when he was home,
So uh, it's been happening a lot. You know, Nancy
Pelosi's husband got attacked and beaten with a hammer. It's
it's really it's something I think about a lot, because
you know, I I do get out and I give
(02:34):
public speeches, and I've gotten death threats before from people,
and I think about that a lot, you know, I
you know, Charlie Kirk was out in the open. You know,
nobody is going through any metal detectors. You know, the
guy was apparently a long distance away, and I think
about that often. You know, I've looked out over crowd
(02:55):
before and thought, is there somebody out here.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
Who I've angered?
Speaker 4 (02:59):
At one point, you know, I used to write a
lot of pieces about the ethanol industry and it would
anger ethanol producers. I even got put on an enemy's
list at one point, and they I used to think
about that. I had a farmer in Iowa threaten to
kill me. He said, if you ever set for an Eyowa,
I will blow your head off. And I thought about
that a lot. I don't know what we can do,
(03:23):
you know, even Charlie Kirk himself said, you know, this
is the price. A few desks is a price we're
going to have to pay for our freedom to bear arms.
And if if that's if that's the way it's going
to be, things like this are going to, unfortunately happen sometimes.
I don't I don't know what you can do about it.
(03:44):
I you know, I think about all the time. You know,
I'm outspoken on certain things, and I've made people mad.
Have ever mad made someone mad enough to kill me?
Speaker 3 (03:54):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (03:56):
You know, Charlie Kirk, he would get in there and
and really go after for people. And we still don't
know who did it. They've released a picture of this
of the suspect. I've seen that this morning. I was
trying to identify the shirt he was wearing. And if
somebody has identified that shirt, I mean he's wearing a
(04:16):
flag and an eagle on it and disabled veteran's shirt.
If if this is the guy, if the suspect is
the one, you know they have.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (04:26):
I My wife was in class yesterday and she she
was the first one to send me a link and said,
Charlie Kirk's been shot. No no idea how he is.
And I clicked on that link and I knew immediately
he wasn't gonna make it.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
I said that is that is a bad, bad wound.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
And and you know, after that, I was just waiting
for them to announce, and I you know, it's a
it's a sad time we live in and everybody needs
to be trying to take the temperature down.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
But it's just getting ramped up.
Speaker 4 (05:02):
I mean this, we don't even know who did it,
and people are jumping to conclusions about, you know, why
they did it and motives and so forth and so on,
and you know, we need to take a step back.
And I said to a friend of mine who is
really fanning flames right now, I said, were you as
mad when, uh, you know, somebody assassinated a Minnesota congress person,
(05:27):
but what was a Democrat? You didn't say a word
about that. So if you're going to be angry about
political targeting, let's let's be equal opportunity here. Let's be
angry about everybody. Let's be angry about anyone getting shot,
you know, for voicing their body. And I had a
friend to his credit this morning I saw on Facebook
(05:47):
he said, I'm angry about this Charlie Kirk killing. And
he said, but I asked myself, would I have been
as angry if it had been somebody whose views I
didn't agree with, And he said, I don't think I
would have been. And he said, I'm going to pray
on that, because you know, we need to be angry
about any senseless killings like this, and and I commented
(06:08):
on it, and I said, that's that's the right attitude
we have to be.
Speaker 3 (06:12):
Uh, you know, this has to.
Speaker 4 (06:13):
Be condemned, no matter who's doing the shooting, no matter
who's being shot. We have to condemn this every time.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
Absolutely. I just feel that this is very different some
of these crimes. They do appear to be passion related.
When you set somebody's home on fire, you're really angry
and you're angry at that person their family. This did
not appear that way. This appeared to be a true
(06:39):
as assassin who was doing a job. That's just my thoughts.
And as far as us reporting on energy, and I
don't I don't think that if you're delivering information, again,
there's all these people that don't think the same way.
You know, who is going to talk about energy? Most
people don't even understand it. So we do rely on
(07:02):
experts like you and me to ask the questions, to
get them out there to educate. But I don't think
you and I come across as opinion pieces. We don't
sit here and say energy is bad or good. We
report on what is really happening. And I kind of
wanted to make that clear for our listeners and for
you know who and what we stand as a media group.
We're here to report, We're not here to give you
(07:23):
our opinions.
Speaker 4 (07:24):
But the people will still try to connect dots and
they'll say you said this, but I think you believe this,
and I'm against that, and I hate you because of that.
That happens a lot. I could say something as simple
as Phoenix is breaking heat records, and I will get angry.
(07:44):
I mean, this is fact, This is an absolute fact,
and I will get angry emails from people for stating
an absolute fact, because then they start to try to
connect the dots and they say, you have an agenda,
you know I we're recording this. This, We're recording us
on the morning of nine to eleven on Thursday. This
will broadcast earliest Sunday night. I'm guessing they will have
(08:08):
the guy by then, and maybe we'll learn a little
bit more about, you know, why did what he did.
Because they found they think they found the gun. They've
released pictures. I'm guessing that he can't he can't run
for Twothy. I would imagine there's going to be DNA
on that gun. I would imagine that. You know, they
(08:30):
said they've got a partial palm print. I think it's
just a matter of time. I think they will catch
this person relatively quickly, maybe by the time we go
to air.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Yeah, I hope so. And I think that what we
really need to be questioning ourselves is people keep calling
this a political assassination. But in reviewing all of the
stuff that Charlie Kirk talked a lot about, he was
talking more about religion than anything else. He would get
into politics, but his basic discussion was always talking more
on Christianity. And so I don't know if it was
(09:01):
silencing the voice of a political person or silencing the
voice of somebody who talked to universities about finding God
and understanding God more. I don't know. That'll be interesting
to see what the motive was. But let's move on.
I'd like to get one energy question before we have
to go to our first break. Robert, your latest piece
in Show magazine that also was similar to a piece
(09:24):
that you released in Forbes magazine warns of the potential
power grid crisis in the US. We'll it's driving the
surge in this demand and are utilities prepared to handle it?
As we're hearing a lot about AI and access to energy,
tell us a little bit about the surging demand.
Speaker 4 (09:43):
So the biggest thing driving demand right now is the
AI data centers. I mean the.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
AI right now, the chat box.
Speaker 4 (09:52):
They're on exponential growth and every query you make consumes energy.
And the utilities were not prepared for this. That's the
biggest thing.
Speaker 3 (10:02):
You know, utilities have.
Speaker 4 (10:03):
To plan years ahead, and when you suddenly have this
demand driver, then you know they can't respond quickly enough.
And after the break, I'll point out an analog. The
same thing happened in the oil industry, and I'll talk
about that after the break, because you know we've seen
this movie.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Before well and it is a pretty linky answer to
because embedded in that also, as you mentioned, the utility
utility companies were not quite ready for this as it
came on and the surge of the demand. But I
really would like to break down more so our listeners
get an understanding AI data centers how they are stripping,
(10:43):
you know, stripping the grid or you know, putting so
much pressure on already a very thin margin of already
producing enough energy, and how this is coming in and
making a situation more so, I want to drill down
to facts. Let's take a quick break. You're listening to
the Energy Mixed radio show and we'll be right back.
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go to Texasmutual dot com slash txoga.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
And we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.
My guest today is the infamous editor in chief of
Shell Magazine, Robert Rapier. And Robert, we're covering some of
the recent articles that you have put out on shellmag
dot com and Forbes Magazine. We were talking before the
break a little bit about power grid crisis in the
(13:22):
US and how the demand is surging and our utilities
prepared to handle it, and you kind of went into
a little bit of a short answer. So I'm going
to give you the opportunity to talk about that, and
then I want to move into how AI data centers
are straining the grid as well, so our listeners get
an understanding of how much pressure is being put on
the grid now with GPT chat and copilot.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
So yeah, let me.
Speaker 4 (13:46):
I'll take you back about twenty five years. We've seen
this movie before in the oil industry in the early
two thousands. You know, the oil industry, it takes years
for them to execute projects, and they look out and
they forecast demand and they you know, at the time
(14:06):
in the early two thousands, this was before the fracking boom,
OPEK was controlling the market, and what nobody foresaw was
the surgeon demand that was going to come from China
over the next ten years or so. And so we
saw this unforecast huge surgeon demand that started eating up
(14:28):
all the excess capacity in the oil industry, and that
led to a lot of you know, speculation about peak
oil that okay, global oil production is about to be
on the decline at the same time Chinese demand is rising,
and so there was a lot of speculation, but there
were literal you know, the excess capacity to market shrunk,
(14:51):
and we saw oil prices, you know, go from about
twenty dollars a barrow and two thousand all the way
up to one hundred and nearly one hundred fifty dollars
a barrel by two thousand and eight. So we saw
a massive increase in oil prices, and that was because
OPEC did not foresee that Chinese demand. Now, fortunately, the
(15:13):
shale revolution was taking place in the background and it
would start to turn the curve on US oil producers
in two thousand and eight. You know, we had been
declining in oil production in the US since nineteen seventy,
but in two thousand and eight, as the shale boom
started to pay dividends, that curve turned back upward, and
(15:34):
we'd still be dealing with one hundred dollars oil for
the next several years. But ultimately the huge surge in
oil production would break that one hundred dollars barrel and
it would break OPEC's hold over the world's oil markets.
So we saw several years of pain. I think that's
what we're going to see in the power sector. I
(15:55):
think we're looking at several years of pain. I don't
think they can ramp up fast enough. Power is not
as fungible as oil.
Speaker 3 (16:04):
That means we.
Speaker 4 (16:05):
Can't get it from overseas like we could get oil.
I know that, you know certain I talked about NRG before.
That's one of our portfolio holdings at Utility Forecast. I
recommend this several years ago, and it's up more than
four hundred percent since we added it, just you know,
three or four years ago. And that's because they produce
competitive power and they are able to sell out there
(16:28):
to the highest bidder some of their power. And there
are several power producers like that. But that means higher
power prices for everybody, you know, and a lot of
places you're dealing with this, I'd noted before. One place
that's not dealing with it is here where I'm at
in Phoenix, because we've got a nuclear power plant here
and that is able to supply steady power. My power
(16:49):
bill in July was about the same as it was
the past two years. Wasn't much changed.
Speaker 3 (16:55):
But I've talked to.
Speaker 4 (16:56):
People in Ohio, people in Kentucky, and they said, my
power bill has gone up two and three times what
it was. And you know, that's a function of the
AI Data centers. It's a function of us exporting LNG,
which is used to make power. You know, we use
natural gas to make power, and that has helped drive
up natural gas prices over the past year. So those
(17:19):
are some of the factors now that I think the
single biggest one, though, is just the demand surge from
the AI data centers.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
Well, let's talk about that. And you highlighted that the
role that AI Data centers that they're basically straining the grid,
as you've mentioned, Can you can we drill down a
little bit on that and explain how these facilities are
reshaping the electricity consumption so much to the point you've
mentioned it's raising the bills for US consumers, But are
(17:47):
we looking at potentially blackouts? Is it going to get
that bad? And then can we drill down into like
maybe Texas or Pennsylvania once I believe these are states
that are and be really looking at producing the amount
of grid that we need to continue to support AI
(18:08):
data center. So who's in charge of that or which
states are going to be the ones that are going
to be the hardest hip by this? How does this
play out big picture?
Speaker 3 (18:17):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (18:17):
I think the states are going to be the hardest
hits are the ones that do not.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
Have a diverse power supply.
Speaker 4 (18:23):
I think the ones that don't have a nuclear power
plant like we do here. You know, that's if you're
if you're dependent on something like natural gas that can
be very volatile, and with US exporting LNG, that price
has been rising over the past year. That's not as
high as it was a few years ago. But a
(18:45):
few years ago we didn't have all these AD data
centers going in. So now we've got the compounded problem
of higher demand and a rising natural gas price and
that is contributing, you know, and these A data centers.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Are going in all over the place.
Speaker 4 (18:59):
A lot. I'm going in Virginia and that area. They're
seeing a lot of demand for power there. You know,
we don't think about it when we you know, I
you may google something and you don't think about that
as consuming power. But when we do these queries with AI,
it consumes power. They have to crunch and they have
(19:21):
to you know, come up with an answer. You know,
they they've been they've been trained. I found out yesterday
my book was one of the ones that was trained.
The chat GPT was trained on. There's a yeah, there
is a database out there. I guess there's a proposed
settlement with the company behind chat GPT because they've used
(19:43):
all these authors' works without.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
Paying for them.
Speaker 4 (19:45):
And you could go in and you could search and
see if your book was used, and mine was. It
was one of the ones that was used to train
these ais. And so when you put a query in,
it's going in and it's sipping through all that information
and it's you know, spitting out an answer. But at
the same time, it consumed some energy. And we've got
you know, people are relying heavier and heavier on this
(20:07):
and and ely, that's that's what's happening. And there's no
quick fix to this. Are we looking at blackouts?
Speaker 2 (20:16):
You know?
Speaker 4 (20:17):
If we're past peak summer demand, so we're probably uh
we have another year probably before things get really dire again.
But when we hit these summer heat waves and we're
hitting all this high demand from the AI data centers,
that's where you could get potential blackouts. I mean, there's
all kinds of other factors here that could lead to blackouts,
(20:39):
but you know, one of them is just a strained
grid and the AI data centers on top of that.
But fortunately, you know, we're headed into the cooler part
of the year and that will uh you know, take
demand down a bit.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
Well, Robert, when we get back from break, I want
to get into falling downs prices, but I also want
to look up between and tell our listeners just how
much one of their GPT chats searches, how much energy
it uses. We're taking a quick break. You're listening to
the Energy Mix Radio show, and we'll be right back,
and we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mix Radio Show.
(21:14):
My guest today is editor in chief Robert Raypier and
energy expert Robert. Before the break, we were talking about
the amount of consumption and the strain on the grid
by all of these energy Copilot, Chat GPT, the AI
data centers and what it means for us. And we
know it's already increasing our utility bills due to their consumption.
(21:35):
But I want to give our listeners an understanding before
we move into energy or oil and gas specific energy topics.
Give us a visual like when I go in and
I use Copilot for something versus Google, which, by the way,
I admit I completely walked away from Google. I don't
even need Google anymore except just GPT. Chat does everything
(21:57):
how much consumption and energy just used now that I've
walked away from Google searches and now used Copilot.
Speaker 4 (22:06):
So I just contributed to the problem a little bit
because during the break, I asked chat GPT about the
electricity consumption from chat GPT queries, and it spit out
a lot of information and gave me a lot of references.
But I said, let's put that in terms of an
average city. So chat GPT says their queries right now
(22:26):
are three hundred and ten giga one hours per year,
which won't mean anything to most people. But I said,
put that in terms of a city, and I said
that is roughly the annual electricity consumption of a city
of about eighty thousand people, So just chat GPT queries.
We're not talking about other ais, and that doesn't include
the cooling and all the infrastructure around it. That is
(22:49):
just the electricity being consumed by people asking chat GPT questions.
So that's like adding an eighty thousand person city just
for chat g So that's where the strain is coming from.
Speaker 2 (23:04):
Wow. Wow, all right, something that definitely keep an eye
our eye on, and I'm glad you're writing about it
and explain it as we go. In August, your article
you explored why gas prices are falling and it's really
about surging US energy production or are they deeper global
(23:26):
forces at play here. One of the things I want
to back up though and talk about, I think we
mentioned this in our previous show, was how you had
appeared on a national CBS to talk about Trump, the
Trump administration's energy policies and drill, baby drill, and how
(23:46):
it's not necessarily really working out well for the oil
and gas industry, and you kind of explained how this
is just you know, what you hear is not what
you're seeing. This is kind of what we're talking about.
Why you're exploring gas prices are falling, but is it
really about the surging US oil production? Tell me a
little bit about that is how does that work the
(24:09):
interview you were talking about with President Trump, and how
this is not quite what it's Are we facing this
again with this global prices that are falling.
Speaker 4 (24:17):
So let's connect some dots here. So, the oil industry
likes a lot of the policies that President Trump has passed,
but ultimately their decision to drill or not to drill
is based on their outlook for oil prices. So whether
so they will factor those new policies into those decisions.
But you know, President Trump could get up tomorrow and
(24:38):
say I need you guys to drill more, and nobody's
going to drill more unless they think it's economically viable
for them. You know, conical felts just announce they're laying
off five percent of their workforce or something like that.
You know, my former employer, that's because they foresee lower
oil prices, and lower oil prices are not good for
(24:58):
the oil industry in the US. So drill, baby, drill
as a slogan, it doesn't work to increase drilling unless
it's somehow you know, increased gas price or increased oil prices,
and it's not doing that. It's not designed to do that.
So all companies are drilling based on, you know, their
(25:19):
outlook for oil prices and their outlook for all prices lower.
So we're seeing recounts fall. Now. We did see oil
production start to fall a couple of months ago. We
had several weekly declines, but I noticed this week we're
back right up at record territories. So we're right back
up near record. That's always the weeklies are always subject
(25:40):
to revision. But we're still producing, you know, at or
near record amounts. But OPEC has decided they're going to
produce more oil. Now that's not good for the US
oil and gas industry, and it's not good for America overall.
It's good for consumers who don't want to pay as
much for gasoline, but the long term implications are lower
oil production in the US and we will ultimately be
(26:03):
paying more and more of it will be coming from OPEC.
I mean, that's the implications of low oil prices in
the US.
Speaker 2 (26:11):
And they've done this before. In between some of the
heights of the Shell Revolution too correct, correct, and it
was a way of really clearing the playing field, of
getting rid of small operators and only the big guys
we're going to survive. Maybe this is a repeat of that.
When we get back from break, I want to talk
about the retirement of baseload power sources like coal and
(26:32):
natural gas, and talking about renewables as well. You're listening
to the Energy Mixed radio show.
Speaker 4 (26:37):
Will be right back.
Speaker 5 (26:39):
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Speaker 2 (27:11):
And we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.
My guest today is energy expert and editor of Shell magazine,
Robert Raybier. Robert, you have written about the retirement of
baseload power sources like coal and natural gas. Are renewable
scaling fast enough to fill the gap and are we
heading for reliability issues? Because I want you to also
(27:37):
talk about the IRA and how a lot of that
got pulled back, specifically pertaining to renewables. So we're going
to start seeing them kind of fall off the radar,
if you will. The ones that already in existence, Do
they have enough to scale fast enough for us? What
is in right now that we are continuing to either
use or what we're going to build out, Tell me
(27:58):
about what you see coming retaining.
Speaker 4 (28:00):
Yeah. One of the things I always do whenever the
statistical review is released every June is look at the
demand growth and energy overall, and then look at how
much renewables grow. And always overall demand growth is growing
faster than renewables group. So that means fossil fuels still
(28:23):
have to grow or we're going to have a supply shortage.
So we are we are shutting down a lot of
coal this year. We're shutting down the EIA projects. Twelve
point three gigawats of capacity will shut down this year.
That's sixty five percent more than last year. Most of
that's cold, but you know there's a decent chunk of
(28:45):
natural gas in there, and natural gas it's far cleaner
power source than coal.
Speaker 5 (28:51):
Is.
Speaker 4 (28:52):
I absolutely don't believe we should be shutting down natural
gas the intermittent sources like wind and solar. Natural gas
pairs very well with that because these plants can be
cycled up and down very quickly. But the question was,
you know, are renewables scaling up fast enough? No, they're
not scaling up fast enough. You know, one thing, one
(29:14):
of my most recent are my second most recent article
in Forbes is about batteries. You know, we are ramping
up triple digit growth on utility scale batteries, and that's
something else that's needed. Uh, you know, if you're going
to put more renewables out there. You know, I was
in Hawaii when they started to run into grid issues
(29:36):
by all the solar they were putting on, and I
Hawaii Electric. I knew the CEO, and I've talked to
them a lot, and they said, look, we take a
lot of flak for this.
Speaker 3 (29:46):
But this is a legitimate issue.
Speaker 4 (29:48):
If we got all these houses that are on sower
and you know, suddenly it's cloudy. We are scrambling to
try to meet the demand. And he said it's causing
us a real, a real issue. So so there are
real issues use here. But I think renewable proponents think
it's just the industry, you know, throwing out smoke. But
it's you know, I have it on pretty good authority
(30:08):
that there are legitimate issues here on trying to put
too much, too much renewables on the grid too fast.
But batteries would help out a lot there. Uh, they
are scaling up pretty quickly, so we're gonna see a
lot more of that. We're going to see a lot
more big battery facilities in and arouse some of these
renewable facilities to try to damp out some of that intermittency.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
What about can can we talk quick quickly about the
projects that didn't get funded when President Trump this administration
removed some of the funding from from the Inflation Reduction Act.
How is that going to affect renewables? Just real quick?
Speaker 4 (30:48):
Yeah, no, it's not good for renewables. You know, they
pulled away funding from a lot of the you know,
my former company was working on hydrogen production and they
pulled away the hydrogen credits.
Speaker 3 (31:01):
You know, you have to be project has to be I.
Speaker 4 (31:04):
Think under construction now by twenty twenty eight or something
like that in order to qualify for any credits. I
think in the long run, I think we need renewables.
I think we need natural gas. I think we need
much more nuclear power. We need all of these sources,
and I don't think we should be pulling back funding
on some of these sources, you know, on a maybe
(31:27):
on some of the projects weren't worthy of being funded.
But I think overall, I think there's a real, you know,
negative effect on the overall growth trend of renewables going
forward in the US, and I don't think that's going
to help with our power shortages. Right.
Speaker 2 (31:43):
Well, it's kind of strange how we've flip flopped very
quickly from renewables to now we're looking at nuclear and
that's a whole other topic. I want to ask you
about cybersecurity and sabotage risk that are rising across the grid.
What vulnerability concerns do you have the most, and how
should states look at this. Texas has had a lot
(32:08):
of cybersecurity attacks in their municipalities as of recently, and
so I'm very interested to hear your thoughts on how
First of all, it's rising. They're going whoever these characters are,
there's probably a million of them, are definitely looking at
government agencies. They're more brazen than ever before. Tell me
(32:31):
a little bit about how you think that maybe, like
states like Texas, how should we look at cybersecurity and
sabotage risks?
Speaker 4 (32:37):
So, you know, a malevolent state actor could do a
lot of damage to our grid. And these attacks are
becoming more and more sophisticated. I know, when I used
to go in the office every day, it became farder
and harder to determine whether an email was legit. At times,
you know, I'd get an email supposedly from my CEO
(32:59):
with his email address, you know, asking me to do something,
and you know, I was always suspicious of any email.
But his office was just two doors down from mine.
So I got one of these emails today that looked
just like he sent it. And I walked down and
I said, did you just send me an email? He
said I did not, and I showed it to him,
and he was astonished at how sophisticated some of these
(33:23):
email attacks can be, and people are falling for them.
And they're getting you know, they're getting hard drives or
servers locked down until they pay, you know, a ransom.
I mean there are lots of companies and states and
cities have had to pay ransom because one person, you know,
(33:44):
was gullible enough to click on one of these emails
and got the whole system locked down. So you have
to be thinking about that from from individuals. You don't
want an individual to have the ability to lock your
system down because it clicked on the wrong link and
you know, sent a virus out into the system. But
you know that's happening more and more. You know, it's
(34:07):
just a matter of time before people are using and
they may be doing it now, using some of these
ais to create better viruses.
Speaker 2 (34:16):
Right. Well, you know before we heading to break So
we had a county Nuasis County, uh came out in
the media here in Texas and I know you're in Arizona.
They were robbed two million dollars. Now, working with Frost
Bank and of course their local authorities, it looks like
they're going to recover the full amount. But basically what
(34:37):
it was was their policies. They hadn't reviewed them in
a long time. On how they process online payments. That
is something that I think all city and county offices
should be looking at that. And they went back to
good old pen and paper writing out checks as opposed
to those online. But that still doesn't we still didn't
get into if they can do that in companies and
(35:00):
they can do that and stealing money online from county offices,
what can they do to the grid and how can
they potentially sabotage What risk are there? Are they vulnerable
in the way of potentially blowing up a grid? And
you know there's a lot there. I want to talk
about that, and I want to talk about the shortage
of skilled electricians and the bottle like that's producing. When
(35:23):
we come back from break, you're listening to the Energy
Mixed radio show. We'll be right back.
Speaker 5 (35:29):
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Speaker 2 (36:02):
And we're back. You're listening to the Energy Mix radio show.
My guest today is editor in chief of Shell Magazine,
Robert Rapier. Robert, you know, as we were discussing in
the previous segment cyber security and sabotage risk, I want
to bring it back to the grid specifically, because if
they can attack and steal money from county offices and companies,
(36:27):
what can they potentially do to the grid. Are these
at risks to our energy supplies?
Speaker 3 (36:33):
Yeah, I think we got to be careful.
Speaker 4 (36:35):
We don't give anybody ideas, but there is a lot
of physical infrastructure out there that is remote, that is,
you know, maybe not well guarded. I used to work
at an oil refinery and I'm not going to give
the location, but a friend and I used to muse
(36:56):
that somebody could get up above that refinery very easily
and you know, hit a gasoline tank and just you know,
take the whole refinery out. And it was hard to
imagine how you could protect against that if somebody got
the right kind of weapon there. And there's a lot
of grid infrastructure like that that's uh, you know, transfer
(37:18):
stations and remote locations. The power plants themselves, you know,
like a nuclear power plant is quite secure, you know
from physical attack, but a lot of the infrastructure out there,
the power lines, they I mean, you know, coordinated attack
could do some serious damage. Yeah, and it's you know,
the the United States is so large and so much
(37:41):
rural area that this infrastructure is running through, it's really
hard to protect against.
Speaker 2 (37:46):
Well, that's that's kind of why I said when we
looked at all these other companies that had gotten hit
through some kind of cyber attack and or sabotage, it
keeps coming back to and this is why you and
I are having this discussion, is maybe the grid needs to
be reevaluated period to see that they are not in
(38:06):
any way potentially vulnerable to that, and they need to
look at that. Robert, let's look at your analysis of
the historical oil production trends. It was eye opening. And
so do you see the current administration's policies influencing US
output for the next twelve months.
Speaker 4 (38:27):
I don't, I mean, there will be some impact at
the margin, but you know, nothing is going to impact
it like the price of oil. That's going to have
the single biggest factor on oil production over the next
twelve months, so the next twenty four months. You know,
the policies are more pro energy for sure, more profilessil fuel,
(38:51):
and the oil industry likes that. But the only way
it affects them is when they do the economics and
they see how is this pos A going to affect
our price per barrel, our cost per barrel, And that's what's.
Speaker 3 (39:05):
Going to determine whether they drill or not.
Speaker 4 (39:07):
And right now, the outlook for oil prices next year
is lower. And although we're almost certainly going to set
another oil production record this year, that would be our
I believe, our third in a row, I don't see
that happening next year. I think we're going to see
all production decline next year just on the basis of
(39:27):
oil prices, I don't think and drilling and the recount.
You know, the recount's been falling all year.
Speaker 3 (39:33):
I don't think.
Speaker 4 (39:34):
It's supportive of oil production at this level a year
from now.
Speaker 2 (39:39):
Well, and you do tend to look ahead a lot
and write on that so you know, you just said
I'm going to be looking at this and that. What
is the single most important metric that you use that
singles that you you know, the metric or the signal
that you're watching to gauge the health of the US
energy sectors. So we can be watching it too.
Speaker 3 (39:57):
What brought the price of oil? You know, the price
of oil? That that's it.
Speaker 4 (40:00):
You you know, there are different things to look at,
Like you can look at inventory levels to tell okay,
we're liable to have a gasoline price spike. And I've
told friends and family before, I've said, look, you know,
gasoline inventories are low, and there's a hurricane bearing down,
you better go fill up because gas prices are probably
going to be twenty since higher, you know, a week
(40:22):
from now. But for overall long term trends, you've got
to look at the oil price currently and the projections,
and then you need to look at the rig count.
If the rig count is falling all year, which it
has been a year from now, two years from now,
that is going to that is going to show up.
(40:43):
And and I think that's that's what we've got to
look at. And you know, right now, I'm not optimistic
that old price is going to be higher, especially with
OPEC out there once again. You know, they did it
a decade ago, and I called it Opex trillion dollar miscalculation.
Now was my first viral article I ever wrote for Forbes,
and CNBC had me on to discuss that article, and
(41:07):
I said, it's this, This is going to cost OPEC
a trillion dollars and it ultimately did. It cost OPEC
a trillion dollars by having a price war against US
shale producers, which didn't knock them out of business. I mean,
they came out of that stronger than ever. Now, some
did get squeezed out, but a lot of them, you know,
they did belt tightening and they became more fiscally disciplined,
(41:29):
and you know, they were stronger as a result of it.
And OPEK finally, you know, and I don't know, twenty
sixteen or twenty seventeen, they threw in the towel and
they said, Okay, we're not.
Speaker 3 (41:39):
Going to do that anymore.
Speaker 4 (41:40):
We're going to go ahead and go back to defending price.
And then you saw prices start to recover.
Speaker 2 (41:46):
And they're making this announcement again, and so we're going
to watch this again and see how this goes. But
let's talk about non OPEC countries like Brazil and Guyana
and are they hitting They are hitting record production. So
is the US still leading the hack or are we
losing ground?
Speaker 4 (42:02):
Now? We're still leading the pack in both oil and
natural gas, and we will continue to do so for years.
I mean, it's going to take a while before you know,
even the worst case scenario, if US oil production starts
to decline, we'll probably see it decline similar to the
rate it increased over the past few years. And at
that rate, we're years away from seating the number one
(42:25):
oil production you know, the title of number one oil
producer in the world'll it'll be years, We'll we'll keep
that title for years.
Speaker 2 (42:33):
Still, what about global inventory? They're rising fast, especially in China,
So could this lead to oversupply and then price polatile
tea heading into the fourth quarter.
Speaker 4 (42:44):
That's some of why prices have softened because in the tories,
you know, China's got a strategic reserve and they're apparently
you know, it's full or close to full, so they're
slowing down their purchases. China is putting pushing out electric
cars as fast as they can, and that's expected to
impact upon oil demand and so all those things. If
(43:05):
you take China out as a you know, as an
oil a growing oil importer, that really has implications on
where the oil markets look like they're headed in the
next few years.
Speaker 2 (43:16):
Let's talk about the US tariffs and trade policy that
are back in the spotlight, and how are these macroeconomic
levers affecting oil and gas price investment decisions. This is
right up your alley.
Speaker 4 (43:29):
Yeah, no, the all companies do not like the tariffs.
You know, anything that drives their costs up, they don't
like it. And it is driving a cost for equipment
and so forth. And I've heard a number of all
companies speak out and say, you know, we don't like
the tariffs. You know, we wish they go away, but
they are what they are, so they have to deal
with them. They have to live with them, and they
(43:49):
have to learn to adapt and you know, we'll see
where it goes. But it adds to their costs and
that's ultimately going to add to consumer costs.
Speaker 2 (44:00):
Very good, well, Robert, that is all the time we
have for this show. Thank you for joining me, and
I look forward to having you back. On next month.
Speaker 3 (44:07):
Thanks Jim.
Speaker 1 (44:08):
The Energy Mix Radio Show is where we explore topics
that affect us all in the oil and gas industry.
Every week, our host will interview the movers and shakers
in this fast paced industry. You'll hear from industry experts,
elected officials, and many more on the Energy Mix Radio Show.
Any business can benefit from advertising to the oil and
gas industry, but it's really important to partner with the
(44:30):
marketing company that has a proven track record with this
growing industry. Shale Oil and Gas Business Magazine is the
one stop shop that'll keep you in front of the
customers that you need to grow your business. So let's
start growing your business in Texas. Email us info at
shalemag dot com. Again, that's info at Shale Saha l
E magmag dot com. Or you can call us two
(44:53):
ten two four ohs seven one eight eight. Again that's
two ten, two four ohs seventy one eighty eight
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