October 1, 2024 • 33 mins
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
It's that time, time, time, time, Luck and Load. Michael
Vari Show is on the air.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Baseball legend Pete Rose has passed away. Rose was one
of the greatest hitters in baseball history and holds a
Major League Baseball record for all time hits.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
But Pete Rose never made.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
It into the Baseball Hall of Fame because he was
banned for life for betting on games while manager of
the Cincinnati Reds. Rose later admitted to betting on his
own team's games, but said he never threw a game
and never bet against his own team. Rose played in
the majors for twenty four years. Pete Rose was eighty
three years old.
Speaker 4 (00:43):
And here comes the Ain't attraction and they're on their feet.
Rose walking toward the play the most famous number fourteen
in a history of this game, and trying to make
history right here in.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
The first inning tonight.
Speaker 4 (01:00):
He levels about a couple of times, shall kicks and
he fires Rose White Class death number forty one ninety two.
They live drives single into left center field, a clean base.
Enter is pandemonium. I'm here at Riverfront Stadiu. The fire
(01:23):
works exploding over a head. The six and eighty dugout
has emptied. Lea Blas continues unabated, Rose completely encircled by
his teammates at first page Joe. Quite an emotional scene.
Here's the ballpark.
Speaker 5 (01:50):
Well, at least the stupid lifetime band can be over now.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
Because Pete Rose is no more.
Speaker 5 (01:58):
And his body of work deserves to be honored in
the Hall of Fame. He played the game as well
as anyone ever played the game. He's arguably the greatest
player of all time. He's got some statistics to back
it up. Hits games played, seventeen time All Star, five
(02:23):
position goal glove, five position All Star, two goal gloves.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
That's incredible.
Speaker 5 (02:30):
First base, third base, second base, left field, right field,
that level of flexibility, versatility. Yeah, he made a mistake
and he more than paid for it. He more than
paid for it. If every single person that's passed judgment
(02:52):
on him within professional baseball can honestly look themselves in
the mirror and say that was fair, and if everything
they had ever done was laid bare, if they'd still
be in the position they are. Remember when Don Sterling
was a story, the owner of the Clippers, Don Sterling,
(03:14):
he was riding high, he had it all and then boom,
that woman recorded the things he said about he didn't
want his mistress to sleep with the black basketball players
on his team.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Because they'd have big winners.
Speaker 5 (03:29):
Remember that, and then all I mean he had to
dump the team and brought shame on his family, the
whole deal overnight.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
There are a lot of people I believe in punishment.
I do. I think that's fair.
Speaker 5 (03:48):
But I also believe sometimes you've got to be man
enough to stand up and say, you know what, I'm
going to be the person that tells you if Pete
paid and more than enough, Pete gave a lot to
the game, he can't have gambling. And so today, throughout
the course of the day and into the night, and
for many days to come, sports shows across the country
(04:11):
on television and radio will debate the legacy of Pete
Rose and the fact that he gambled on baseball, and
the number one sponsor for every one of those shows.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Will be gambling sites.
Speaker 5 (04:28):
Oh the hypocrisy, Oh the irony, Oh the irony of
it all.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
What a day.
Speaker 5 (04:37):
We've got a lot to talk about attacks on Israel.
As you know, we don't do hardly ever live news
coverage Hannity does. It's a different show. Hannity does a
show where he will blow through commercials and he will
focus on news of the day.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
I don't.
Speaker 5 (04:58):
It makes program directors crazy because they still think we're
in the news business.
Speaker 3 (05:01):
We're not. We're in the opinion business.
Speaker 5 (05:06):
And I don't offer opinions on things as they're happening
because often I don't have all the facts.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
I'm trusting someone else.
Speaker 5 (05:15):
So in time, we will address these attacks on Israel
by Iran. We will address a number of things related
to that. Just know that the world is in peril,
and the world, not just America, needs Donald Trump to
be our president right now because a strong America makes
(05:38):
for a more secure world. A strong America does not
mean the Bush family America. It does not mean the
warmongering of the Democrats America.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
Nor does it mean a week.
Speaker 5 (05:55):
America that invites rogue nations to do what Iran is
currently doing. We need an America with a strong president
who is not eager to go to war, but understands
the bullies of the world. They told us Trump would
take us into World War three. He didn't. In fact,
(06:19):
he made us safer. He got us out of Afghanistan.
But even even bumbling Biden had to bungle that as well,
although we now know that it was Kamala Harris, she
was the last one in the room. So now we've
got the longshoreman on strike, which means the supply chain
is going to be disrupted, which means your life, every
single person's life is going to be disrupted as a
(06:41):
result of this, and it's going to get worse and
worse the longer this goes. So with all of these
things going on in the world, let's check in on
what Donald Trump is doing on the night of this
the vice presidential debate versus what the president. Remember Joe
Biden still our president, and Kamala Harris, who will be
president before the election, who wants to be president. Let's
(07:04):
compare and contrast what they're all doing. Scott Jennings, a
reasonable voice on CNN.
Speaker 6 (07:11):
I think the optics of this over the weekend for
Biden Harris have been pretty poor. In North Carolina is underwater.
These people are devastated and struggling. But you've got Biden
at the beach and then saying, what do you want
from me? I got on the phone while I was
at the beach, and you've got Harris out raising money
on the campaign and then taking a photo on a plane.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
I remember George W.
Speaker 6 (07:33):
Bush was pilloried for having a photo taken from Air
Force one.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
She's got a photo on a plane and.
Speaker 6 (07:40):
The airphones don't appear to be connected to the phone,
and the paper looks like it's blank, so it looked
like a stage sort of thing.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
I thought the optics for them were very bad. That's
exactly right. The nation and the world is watching.
Speaker 5 (08:00):
The world is watching when Zelensky comes to American soil
and Biden and Harris fly him to Pennsylvania to campaign
for them and then hand him eight billion dollars.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
The world is watching.
Speaker 5 (08:16):
While several of our states and many of our people,
their lives have been destroyed, many of their lives have
been lost, and our government opens up our checkbook, our checkbook,
that's our money, and hands it to foreign countries as
our people are dying, As our people are dying. Biden
(08:41):
tried to shut down Starling, took him away from the
US government, and now FEMA has had to use Starling,
and Elon said, here helps the people. Biden is such
a fool, and so is Kamala Harris. We got a
great show for you to know.
Speaker 3 (08:54):
Joe Biden became mentally impaired with Michael Berry. Tamala was
born that way.
Speaker 5 (09:00):
You run leading air raids over Israel. The destruction of
Israel is the only thing that unites the Arab world.
It's a really sad, sad situation. The American left will
(09:24):
try to make excuses for this, but the reality is,
you can wipe Israel off the map, you can wipe
America off the map, you can wipe Western civilization off
the map. The people of the Middle East would find
something else to be angry about.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
Because.
Speaker 5 (09:49):
The cult that has taken hold is an angry, vicious, bitter,
vengeful cult. The cruelty and brutality to women is not
our fault. We didn't choose that. And too many Americans
(10:11):
have this false relativism and this naive embrace that everyone
in the world is just like we are. They're not
many cultures in the world, and cultures change over time. Cultures,
as with nations, as with the followers of religions, change
(10:34):
over time. And we are in a very very dark time.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
For the Middle East.
Speaker 5 (10:44):
When you look at the fall of Iran in seventy
nine and the resulting horror from Comani to today and
the fundamentalism of that country and how that has affected
(11:07):
not just the region but the world. By the way,
there are still seven Americans being held hostage. In six days,
they would have been held hostage for a year. Seven
Americans still being held hostage by Hamas Hamas Hezbollah directly funded,
(11:31):
organized and run by Iran.
Speaker 3 (11:34):
It is their terror arm it is a terror state.
Speaker 5 (11:40):
And yet Obama and now Biden Harris have made sure
they have the money to do everything they want to
do to terrorize Israelis and Americans. And make no mistake,
it's Americans as well. It is Americans as well. Let's
turn our attention to the longshoreman strike. Yes, the vice
(12:02):
presidential debate will be tonight, that will be the focus
of much of our show tomorrow, So I don't see
a need to talk much about it tonight.
Speaker 3 (12:11):
And I think.
Speaker 5 (12:14):
That this long shoreman strike, if this drags on, pretends
to be.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
A lot bigger deal than perhaps is.
Speaker 5 (12:23):
It's getting the attention of You're talking about ports from
Maine to Texas being shut down, and you're talking about
a cost estimated to be four to four and a
half billion dollars a day.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
The longshoreman union wants.
Speaker 5 (12:42):
They want to be paid more, a lot more, and
they don't want automation. They don't want cranes, gates, trucks.
They want everything to be done by hand. How do
you think that's going to turn out? So first time
the union's been on strike since nineteen seventy seven.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
All this is going on.
Speaker 5 (13:02):
Forty five thousand workers from three dozen ports, a potential
cost approaching five billion dollars a day, eighty five thousand
ISLA union members, and the Secretary of Commerce for Joe
Biden says, yeah, I don't really care.
Speaker 6 (13:21):
Where have you been kind of focused on hearing on
what would happen if the strikers, let's say longer than
a week.
Speaker 3 (13:29):
Again, I have not been very focused on that. Now.
Speaker 5 (13:35):
Harold Daggett, who is the president of the Longshortman's Union, Harold.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
Daggett had some things to say.
Speaker 5 (13:44):
He's basically threatening you, America that unless they get paid
a whole lot more money and you refuse to use automation,
which the rest of the world is doing. He don't
want these computers and cell phones. He don't want automation
to replace human being. Do you know why they want
automation to replace human beings. Because you go on strike,
(14:07):
because you sexually harassed, because they get in fights, because
they sue you.
Speaker 3 (14:14):
The trend is toward automation.
Speaker 5 (14:17):
You can't bully people into not automating while you're sitting
on your cell phone, while you're driving in your car.
Everything you do is automation that replaces something else. You
can be mad about that, and you can be like
me and be luddite, but the reality is you're going
to lose that war. Now, with all that in mind,
listen to the president of the union, who was handpicked
(14:39):
by the mob.
Speaker 3 (14:40):
I'm told, but.
Speaker 7 (14:42):
Today's world, it's changing into the future.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
They're not making millions no more.
Speaker 7 (14:48):
They're making billions, and they're spending it fast as they
make it. I want a piece of half of my men,
because when they made their most money was during COVIC,
when my men had to go to work on those
piers every single day, when everybody stayed home and went
to work, not my men.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
They died out there with the virus. We all got
sick with the virus.
Speaker 7 (15:10):
We kept them going from Canada to main A, Texas,
Great Legs, Puerto Rico. Now the Bahamas, everybody went to
work during COVID, nobody stayed home. Well, I want to
be compensated for that. Now, I'm not asking for the world.
They know what I want. They know what they want,
and if they don't, no, then I have to go
(15:32):
into the streets and we have to fight for what
we rightfully deserve.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
These people today don't know what the shrike is.
Speaker 7 (15:39):
Right when my men hit the streets from Maine to Texas,
every single port a lockdown.
Speaker 3 (15:48):
You know what's going to happen, I'll tell you.
Speaker 7 (15:51):
First week, be all over the news every nine boom boom.
Second week, guys who sell cars can't sell cars because
the cars ain't coming in off the ships. They get
laid off. Third week, malls are closing down. They can't
get the goods from China. They can't sell clothes. They
(16:11):
can't do this. Everything in the United States comes on
a ship. They go out of business. Construction workers get
laid off because the materials aren't coming in.
Speaker 3 (16:22):
The steel's not coming in, the lumber's not coming in.
They lose their job.
Speaker 7 (16:28):
Everybody's hating the long Showman now because now they realize
how important our jobs are. Now I have the president
screaming at me. I'm putting a TAF Holly on you
go ahead. Taf Holly means I have to go back
to work for ninety days after cool you off.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
Period.
Speaker 7 (16:45):
Do you think when I go back for ninety days,
those men are going to go to work on that pier.
It's going to cost the money, the company's money to
pay their salaries. Well, they go one from thirty moves
an now maybe they eight. They're gonna be like this,
who's gonna win here? In the long run, You're better
off sitting down and let's get a contract and let's
move on with this world. And could today's world. I'll
(17:07):
cripple you. I will cripple you. And you have no
idea what that means. Nobody does. I support workers.
Speaker 5 (17:18):
Being safe in their workplace, being paid what they're promised,
not what they threaten.
Speaker 3 (17:26):
I do.
Speaker 5 (17:29):
I don't support threats on the American people. I know
some people do. I know for some people, especially from
union families. I've got friends and they think this is
cool and it's tough and mafia and not me.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
I don't go for that. You do to be great.
We'll have a logistics expert named Ross Kennedy on this
moment to talk about it.
Speaker 5 (17:50):
Just scene scared to death of you, and they remain
scared to death of Michael Show.
Speaker 3 (17:55):
You're not going anywhere even if Trump does, You're not.
Speaker 5 (18:00):
Since we're talking about ports, and since we're talking about
logistics and the supply chain and things that we never
talk about until they go down and then you get
a long shoreman's strike and now you can't get the
products you need to do business to survive.
Speaker 3 (18:18):
Ross Kennedy is the founder of.
Speaker 5 (18:19):
Fortis Analysis, a US based logistics and supply chain advisory team,
and as good an expert as you're going to find
on the subject.
Speaker 3 (18:27):
Ross, thanks for making time for us. Really appreciated.
Speaker 8 (18:30):
Michael, Thank you, sir.
Speaker 5 (18:31):
So I know you're a busy man today because in
talking to my friend Jessic Kelly, he had said, make
sure you get Ross on because I'm talking to him
as well. Let's talk about what happens short term and
long term with this long shoreman's strike and how this
affects the average person.
Speaker 8 (18:52):
Absolutely, so you know, most people have any extent are
aware at all of what a long shortman is, what
supports really do the function in our economy, because the
United States is heavily consumptive economy, we import a lot
more than we export in terms of physical things. You know,
we import components, auto parts, uh, you know, commercial goods
(19:16):
for the shelves. We import a lot more food than
people realize. We export big heavy things, you know that
the energy products and food and minerals and large equipment.
The because that balance has weighted so heavily towards containerized goods,
which is the primary mode of transportation that the longshore
(19:36):
and uh, you know strike impacts at the ports. There
it radiates up, down and outwards, you know, for the
US economy. And this specific situation is very I would
use the word interesting from an academic standpoint. However, interesting
in this case means it is a loaded situation. Big picture,
(20:01):
a lot of pain, right, so big picture. The longshoreman
strikes with the International Longshoreman's Association. They are one of
two longshoreman union that represents the workers that work inside
of ports. You know, the historical term of longshoreman continues
to apply.
Speaker 3 (20:17):
The roles are different.
Speaker 8 (20:19):
But about forty percent of the ports in the US,
you know, stretching from there's actually some ports on the
Great Lakes, you know, the Chicago Cleveland that are impacted
by this, But generally speaking, you're talking about the primary
ocean ports that kind of run the eastern seaboard of
the US down to Florida and then the Gulf Coast
seaboard over to Houston.
Speaker 3 (20:38):
About thirty five.
Speaker 8 (20:39):
Ports are are going to be heavily impacted by this.
And what has happened right now is out of twelve
oh one an agreement between the US Maritime Association, which
represents it's the collective bargaining body of the ports terminals
operators and the ship owners or the shipping companies Mayor's
MSc know being some big famous ones as well as
(21:01):
the Chinese company Costco are kind of in this multi
year gridlock with the with the Ila long shortman it's
about forty five thousand of their eighty thousand employees are
impacted by the striking decision over really two things, wages
and automation. The longshoremen are paid about thirty to forty
percent less on the East Coast and Golf Coast than
(21:22):
their counterparts and the ILWU out on the West Coast
and up in Canada, and so wages is number one.
You know, they haven't had a pay increase in about
a decade.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
You know, effectively, what thing what it is? Are we
what are we talking about? Average?
Speaker 8 (21:36):
Yeah, average salary for the forty five thousand workers is
about eighty one thousand. It's about one hundred and seventeen
thousand for the long shoreman out on the West coast.
That's not including things like overtime benefits, very substantial pensions.
But about eighty to eighty one thousand is the average wage.
Highest salary within you know, within the organizations, can be
the president Howard Daggett, who is He's at about seven
(21:57):
to a little over seven hundred thousand, but the ground
the docks is doing eighty eighty one one hundred thousand,
depending on seniority.
Speaker 3 (22:04):
So wages is the first issue.
Speaker 8 (22:06):
Number two is and it's really the existential sticking point
because the USMAX the ship owners imports, would you know,
pretty happily bend on wages if that was the only issue.
Is this issue of automation imports, meaning utilizing automated machine
or remotely operated cranes to stow and destow the vessels,
(22:27):
using automated trolleys to move containers around on the port,
automated equipment to do stacking of the containers and positioning.
All of those are things that are currently done manually
at most ports by humans within the isla's footprint. The
port of Norfolk stands out as an interesting example. Its
largest container terminal VI or actually it's the ig and
(22:51):
AW Virginia International Gateway, is a semi automated port, meaning
some of the work done inside the port facility is
actually already automated. And what we've seen in Norfolk is
a substantial increase in efficiency, reduction in costs to the
downstream individual, the import of the exporter that's actually paying
the bill for all of this, relative to a lot
(23:13):
of the other ports, where everything is still human human operated,
and automation is existential as a threat.
Speaker 3 (23:20):
To the longshoreman.
Speaker 8 (23:22):
You're talking about eighty thousand members who their one value
to US logistics and supply chains at the ports is
the human ability to move a container piece of cargo
around in time and space. Most major ports in the world,
number of the terminals in Qingdao, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzen
(23:44):
in China, Jakarta and Indonesia, Singapore, Rotterdam, Antwerp in Europe,
a lot of these ports have gone fully automated or
semi automated at bare minimum, and they are far more efficient.
And so the narrative works against the longshoreman of hey,
we want to do good for the economy, keep American
(24:04):
workers employed. In this particular case, because of the complexity
of handling very large, heavy things, the machines tend to
do it better. So that's the real sticking point here
for the Union is it's that if they've bend it
all in automation, then you're talking about a very short
lifespan relative to the one hundred and thirty year existence
(24:25):
of the organization.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
But ross is that realistic?
Speaker 5 (24:28):
I mean, I mean, could the horse buggy operator really
say we're not going to run the horse buggies.
Speaker 3 (24:34):
If y'all are going to buy cars.
Speaker 5 (24:36):
The cars are coming, right, automation's coming, electricity was coming,
computers were coming. Realistically saying we demand that we get
to work and perform these tasks rather than automation.
Speaker 3 (24:49):
And to prove that we get to do it, we're
going to not do it.
Speaker 5 (24:52):
I just think that this is I think it's just
sisiphy and task you're pushing this thing up here. It's coming,
automation's coming, cost savings are coming more. With Bross Kennedy,
he is our global shipping expert.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
With the long shoreman striker products, we are going to supporter.
We've been to supporter. You haven't been ship with the
modicle Varia, and I haven't been to Europe.
Speaker 5 (25:16):
Ross Kennedy is an expert in supply chains and in
shipping and in logistics. With the longshoreman's strike, he is
our guest to talk about what this means for the workers,
the companies that hire them, and at the end of
the day, this is going to affect every single American.
It's one of the few things that does even more
(25:38):
than an air traffic controller strike, because not everybody flies.
Everybody uses products that travel internationally. And that's not just
the Chinese products coming in here. That's our products being
exported out of there as well. You were talking about
the international companies that control a lot of the trade
that's bringing in products that be European or Asian, and
(26:02):
they have embraced automation at their other ports and they're
simply not going to pay Americans what they considered to
be wages that could be wiped out because they don't
feel like they need to, and the American consumer would
pay more as a result of it. And maybe some
people say, hey, I'll pay more for the product so
the longshoremen can make their wages.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
But I think they're lying.
Speaker 5 (26:23):
I think most people buy cheap Chinese products no matter
what they say. And walmart't proved that people weren't willing
to live up to what they promised. But let's talk
about who who those players are on that side of
this transaction ross.
Speaker 8 (26:37):
Yeah, absolutely so, as far as the you know, American
interfaces if you will, and an international logistics movement or
supply chain, you know what we call the shipment life cycle.
Your railroads are are US or Canadian owns. You have
two Class one carriers out of Canada, one of which
(26:58):
has actually merged with an American carrier in last year.
But you're talking about North American companies that they you know, they.
Speaker 3 (27:07):
Employ people here, they do all of that.
Speaker 8 (27:09):
You also have all of the many, many, many American
owned and operated drage companies, strage just being the industry
term of art for trucking a container rather than you know,
a fifty three foot drive hand or something, but the
vast majority of shipowners and the vast majority of terminals
(27:30):
that actually you know, receive the.
Speaker 3 (27:32):
Cargo in prep it for movement.
Speaker 8 (27:34):
Basically everything at the water's edge is ultimately a foreign
company or a country that is the beneficiary of that.
Drilling down the impact of these relatively uncharitable entities that
really are jockeying for control over what they perceived to
(27:55):
be the future of maritime commerce in the US. Everything
is said, Michael, ninety percent of everything moves on water,
both legal goods and illegal goods. The impact to the
average American consumer, particularly those who work for manufacturers that
source their components overseas, when when it comes down to it,
(28:17):
it's anywhere from one to five billion dollars per day
impact to the US economy from this particular strike. If
both unions had been on strike at the same time,
you would be talking about a complete shutdown of the
American economy. The nature though, because it's this very interconnected,
difficult way of moving things to and from the rest
(28:42):
of the world, a day will take a week to
recover normal operational throughput for the ports. A seven days
strike would take about three months. It's an exponential thing.
That was why in the early days of COVID, I
was one of the few voices you know, talking to
the Trump administration directly saying, Hey, the first thing you
(29:03):
need to do is ease the bottleneck, ease the constraints,
and build some excess flex into the system so that
the ports don't get congested because they can't really hold
a lot and there's not a lot of places for those
containers to go when the ships aren't turning and they're
sitting out in the water. As we famously saw during
the peak of the COVID supply chain disruption, over one
(29:24):
hundred ships at anchor off the west coast of the US.
All of this is a compounding effect that downstream of
that are American employees and consumers. If you work at
an auto manufacturer, if you work for an energy company,
if you work for a power utility, if you work
for a food manufacturer, anything that relies on machines, equipment, parts,
(29:50):
or components that come from overseas, there is a long
tail on this for that business that employs these American workers.
During COVID, hundreds of commpanies went out of business that
were in some way pretty tidally locked to global supply
chain and global logistics sourcing operations, and of those that
didn't go out of business, the rest were either merged
(30:11):
or acquired for a dime or a quarter on the
dollar the value of the company because they didn't have
the cash flow to absorb such a supply chain crunch.
And there's very few options. If you're fortunate enough to
need components that can be packaged up relatively small and
put on air freight, you're still paying anywhere from five
to ten x on a per kilogram of weight basis
(30:35):
of that thing to be flown via air versus brought
in a container.
Speaker 3 (30:40):
Well, it's incredible.
Speaker 5 (30:42):
I've watched these things on YouTube, and I think this
is one of those that YouTube has been really good
at is taking smart guys like you and giving you
a platform where you can explain things to us folks
that are not experts in whatever your area is, whether
it's engines or aviation, or bitcoin or crypto or in
(31:05):
this case, international shipping. Is fascinating to me to see
the many hands and now clause that touch a product
from the time it starts as a raw material to
the time it ends up on my table or in
my bathroom.
Speaker 3 (31:20):
It's really fascinating.
Speaker 5 (31:22):
I mean it's staggering to me and you can't imagine
how many people do that. Let me ask you, because
I have two minutes left, I want to make sure
we get to this. How does this thing play out?
Ross Kennedy. I think what's.
Speaker 8 (31:33):
Most likely to happen is that you're going to see
a resolution that everybody is unhappy with. And I've heard
it paraphrase that that's the definition of a good compromise,
is that everybody walks away with an agreement that makes
them unhappy. In this particular case, I'm fairly confident the
longshom and will get everything they want on the wages.
(31:54):
They will have to bend a little bit on the
issue of automation, because the long this goes on, the
more likely the public is to blame the long short
because it's easier to personify an attack on us, you know,
a group of people versus a group of companies. The
likeliest output from the automation side is is that there
(32:16):
will be a phased in, stepped in approach to automation. Okay,
over five years, you know, we'll bring these components in
over ten years, we'll bring these components in.
Speaker 3 (32:28):
First ride of refusal.
Speaker 8 (32:29):
Goes to training and employment of our people to remotely
operate and maintain these pieces of equipment, and anybody else
who can't get on board with that gets a super
fat buyout.
Speaker 3 (32:40):
I think that's.
Speaker 8 (32:41):
What's most likely to happen, is going to be very
large lucrative payouts for the members that are impacted by
automation in five or ten years, and not in exchange
for higher wages and more secure benefits. Now, that's probably
what's likely to happen. The one dog not barking in
(33:01):
most circles is the invocation of path partly, which was
last used by President Reagan to force the air traffic
controllers back to work for eighty days so that a
negotiation could be agreed upon. But that requires some strength
of character for a chief executive of the country to
invoke that. I certainly don't see the expertise or commitment
(33:23):
to understanding this issue amongst anybody who are the key
stakeholders in this administration for the effort. So it will
be worked out. It will take a few more days,
I think, But what's likely to happen is is, yes,
they will get their longsterom will get their wage increases,
they will get significant buyouts and early retirement, and you'll
(33:43):
see additional automation begin implement in the next five years
or so. In the impacted ports,
It's that time, time, time, time, Luck and Load. Michael
Vari Show is on the air.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Baseball legend Pete Rose has passed away. Rose was one
of the greatest hitters in baseball history and holds a
Major League Baseball record for all time hits.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
But Pete Rose never made.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
It into the Baseball Hall of Fame because he was
banned for life for betting on games while manager of
the Cincinnati Reds. Rose later admitted to betting on his
own team's games, but said he never threw a game
and never bet against his own team. Rose played in
the majors for twenty four years. Pete Rose was eighty
three years old.
Speaker 4 (00:43):
And here comes the Ain't attraction and they're on their feet.
Rose walking toward the play the most famous number fourteen
in a history of this game, and trying to make
history right here in.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
The first inning tonight.
Speaker 4 (01:00):
He levels about a couple of times, shall kicks and
he fires Rose White Class death number forty one ninety two.
They live drives single into left center field, a clean base.
Enter is pandemonium. I'm here at Riverfront Stadiu. The fire
(01:23):
works exploding over a head. The six and eighty dugout
has emptied. Lea Blas continues unabated, Rose completely encircled by
his teammates at first page Joe. Quite an emotional scene.
Here's the ballpark.
Speaker 5 (01:50):
Well, at least the stupid lifetime band can be over now.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
Because Pete Rose is no more.
Speaker 5 (01:58):
And his body of work deserves to be honored in
the Hall of Fame. He played the game as well
as anyone ever played the game. He's arguably the greatest
player of all time. He's got some statistics to back
it up. Hits games played, seventeen time All Star, five
(02:23):
position goal glove, five position All Star, two goal gloves.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
That's incredible.
Speaker 5 (02:30):
First base, third base, second base, left field, right field,
that level of flexibility, versatility. Yeah, he made a mistake
and he more than paid for it. He more than
paid for it. If every single person that's passed judgment
(02:52):
on him within professional baseball can honestly look themselves in
the mirror and say that was fair, and if everything
they had ever done was laid bare, if they'd still
be in the position they are. Remember when Don Sterling
was a story, the owner of the Clippers, Don Sterling,
(03:14):
he was riding high, he had it all and then boom,
that woman recorded the things he said about he didn't
want his mistress to sleep with the black basketball players
on his team.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Because they'd have big winners.
Speaker 5 (03:29):
Remember that, and then all I mean he had to
dump the team and brought shame on his family, the
whole deal overnight.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
There are a lot of people I believe in punishment.
I do. I think that's fair.
Speaker 5 (03:48):
But I also believe sometimes you've got to be man
enough to stand up and say, you know what, I'm
going to be the person that tells you if Pete
paid and more than enough, Pete gave a lot to
the game, he can't have gambling. And so today, throughout
the course of the day and into the night, and
for many days to come, sports shows across the country
(04:11):
on television and radio will debate the legacy of Pete
Rose and the fact that he gambled on baseball, and
the number one sponsor for every one of those shows.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Will be gambling sites.
Speaker 5 (04:28):
Oh the hypocrisy, Oh the irony, Oh the irony of
it all.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
What a day.
Speaker 5 (04:37):
We've got a lot to talk about attacks on Israel.
As you know, we don't do hardly ever live news
coverage Hannity does. It's a different show. Hannity does a
show where he will blow through commercials and he will
focus on news of the day.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
I don't.
Speaker 5 (04:58):
It makes program directors crazy because they still think we're
in the news business.
Speaker 3 (05:01):
We're not. We're in the opinion business.
Speaker 5 (05:06):
And I don't offer opinions on things as they're happening
because often I don't have all the facts.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
I'm trusting someone else.
Speaker 5 (05:15):
So in time, we will address these attacks on Israel
by Iran. We will address a number of things related
to that. Just know that the world is in peril,
and the world, not just America, needs Donald Trump to
be our president right now because a strong America makes
(05:38):
for a more secure world. A strong America does not
mean the Bush family America. It does not mean the
warmongering of the Democrats America.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
Nor does it mean a week.
Speaker 5 (05:55):
America that invites rogue nations to do what Iran is
currently doing. We need an America with a strong president
who is not eager to go to war, but understands
the bullies of the world. They told us Trump would
take us into World War three. He didn't. In fact,
(06:19):
he made us safer. He got us out of Afghanistan.
But even even bumbling Biden had to bungle that as well,
although we now know that it was Kamala Harris, she
was the last one in the room. So now we've
got the longshoreman on strike, which means the supply chain
is going to be disrupted, which means your life, every
single person's life is going to be disrupted as a
(06:41):
result of this, and it's going to get worse and
worse the longer this goes. So with all of these
things going on in the world, let's check in on
what Donald Trump is doing on the night of this
the vice presidential debate versus what the president. Remember Joe
Biden still our president, and Kamala Harris, who will be
president before the election, who wants to be president. Let's
(07:04):
compare and contrast what they're all doing. Scott Jennings, a
reasonable voice on CNN.
Speaker 6 (07:11):
I think the optics of this over the weekend for
Biden Harris have been pretty poor. In North Carolina is underwater.
These people are devastated and struggling. But you've got Biden
at the beach and then saying, what do you want
from me? I got on the phone while I was
at the beach, and you've got Harris out raising money
on the campaign and then taking a photo on a plane.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
I remember George W.
Speaker 6 (07:33):
Bush was pilloried for having a photo taken from Air
Force one.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
She's got a photo on a plane and.
Speaker 6 (07:40):
The airphones don't appear to be connected to the phone,
and the paper looks like it's blank, so it looked
like a stage sort of thing.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
I thought the optics for them were very bad. That's
exactly right. The nation and the world is watching.
Speaker 5 (08:00):
The world is watching when Zelensky comes to American soil
and Biden and Harris fly him to Pennsylvania to campaign
for them and then hand him eight billion dollars.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
The world is watching.
Speaker 5 (08:16):
While several of our states and many of our people,
their lives have been destroyed, many of their lives have
been lost, and our government opens up our checkbook, our checkbook,
that's our money, and hands it to foreign countries as
our people are dying, As our people are dying. Biden
(08:41):
tried to shut down Starling, took him away from the
US government, and now FEMA has had to use Starling,
and Elon said, here helps the people. Biden is such
a fool, and so is Kamala Harris. We got a
great show for you to know.
Speaker 3 (08:54):
Joe Biden became mentally impaired with Michael Berry. Tamala was
born that way.
Speaker 5 (09:00):
You run leading air raids over Israel. The destruction of
Israel is the only thing that unites the Arab world.
It's a really sad, sad situation. The American left will
(09:24):
try to make excuses for this, but the reality is,
you can wipe Israel off the map, you can wipe
America off the map, you can wipe Western civilization off
the map. The people of the Middle East would find
something else to be angry about.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
Because.
Speaker 5 (09:49):
The cult that has taken hold is an angry, vicious, bitter,
vengeful cult. The cruelty and brutality to women is not
our fault. We didn't choose that. And too many Americans
(10:11):
have this false relativism and this naive embrace that everyone
in the world is just like we are. They're not
many cultures in the world, and cultures change over time. Cultures,
as with nations, as with the followers of religions, change
(10:34):
over time. And we are in a very very dark time.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
For the Middle East.
Speaker 5 (10:44):
When you look at the fall of Iran in seventy
nine and the resulting horror from Comani to today and
the fundamentalism of that country and how that has affected
(11:07):
not just the region but the world. By the way,
there are still seven Americans being held hostage. In six days,
they would have been held hostage for a year. Seven
Americans still being held hostage by Hamas Hamas Hezbollah directly funded,
(11:31):
organized and run by Iran.
Speaker 3 (11:34):
It is their terror arm it is a terror state.
Speaker 5 (11:40):
And yet Obama and now Biden Harris have made sure
they have the money to do everything they want to
do to terrorize Israelis and Americans. And make no mistake,
it's Americans as well. It is Americans as well. Let's
turn our attention to the longshoreman strike. Yes, the vice
(12:02):
presidential debate will be tonight, that will be the focus
of much of our show tomorrow, So I don't see
a need to talk much about it tonight.
Speaker 3 (12:11):
And I think.
Speaker 5 (12:14):
That this long shoreman strike, if this drags on, pretends
to be.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
A lot bigger deal than perhaps is.
Speaker 5 (12:23):
It's getting the attention of You're talking about ports from
Maine to Texas being shut down, and you're talking about
a cost estimated to be four to four and a
half billion dollars a day.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
The longshoreman union wants.
Speaker 5 (12:42):
They want to be paid more, a lot more, and
they don't want automation. They don't want cranes, gates, trucks.
They want everything to be done by hand. How do
you think that's going to turn out? So first time
the union's been on strike since nineteen seventy seven.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
All this is going on.
Speaker 5 (13:02):
Forty five thousand workers from three dozen ports, a potential
cost approaching five billion dollars a day, eighty five thousand
ISLA union members, and the Secretary of Commerce for Joe
Biden says, yeah, I don't really care.
Speaker 6 (13:21):
Where have you been kind of focused on hearing on
what would happen if the strikers, let's say longer than
a week.
Speaker 3 (13:29):
Again, I have not been very focused on that. Now.
Speaker 5 (13:35):
Harold Daggett, who is the president of the Longshortman's Union, Harold.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
Daggett had some things to say.
Speaker 5 (13:44):
He's basically threatening you, America that unless they get paid
a whole lot more money and you refuse to use automation,
which the rest of the world is doing. He don't
want these computers and cell phones. He don't want automation
to replace human being. Do you know why they want
automation to replace human beings. Because you go on strike,
(14:07):
because you sexually harassed, because they get in fights, because
they sue you.
Speaker 3 (14:14):
The trend is toward automation.
Speaker 5 (14:17):
You can't bully people into not automating while you're sitting
on your cell phone, while you're driving in your car.
Everything you do is automation that replaces something else. You
can be mad about that, and you can be like
me and be luddite, but the reality is you're going
to lose that war. Now, with all that in mind,
listen to the president of the union, who was handpicked
(14:39):
by the mob.
Speaker 3 (14:40):
I'm told, but.
Speaker 7 (14:42):
Today's world, it's changing into the future.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
They're not making millions no more.
Speaker 7 (14:48):
They're making billions, and they're spending it fast as they
make it. I want a piece of half of my men,
because when they made their most money was during COVIC,
when my men had to go to work on those
piers every single day, when everybody stayed home and went
to work, not my men.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
They died out there with the virus. We all got
sick with the virus.
Speaker 7 (15:10):
We kept them going from Canada to main A, Texas,
Great Legs, Puerto Rico. Now the Bahamas, everybody went to
work during COVID, nobody stayed home. Well, I want to
be compensated for that. Now, I'm not asking for the world.
They know what I want. They know what they want,
and if they don't, no, then I have to go
(15:32):
into the streets and we have to fight for what
we rightfully deserve.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
These people today don't know what the shrike is.
Speaker 7 (15:39):
Right when my men hit the streets from Maine to Texas,
every single port a lockdown.
Speaker 3 (15:48):
You know what's going to happen, I'll tell you.
Speaker 7 (15:51):
First week, be all over the news every nine boom boom.
Second week, guys who sell cars can't sell cars because
the cars ain't coming in off the ships. They get
laid off. Third week, malls are closing down. They can't
get the goods from China. They can't sell clothes. They
(16:11):
can't do this. Everything in the United States comes on
a ship. They go out of business. Construction workers get
laid off because the materials aren't coming in.
Speaker 3 (16:22):
The steel's not coming in, the lumber's not coming in.
They lose their job.
Speaker 7 (16:28):
Everybody's hating the long Showman now because now they realize
how important our jobs are. Now I have the president
screaming at me. I'm putting a TAF Holly on you
go ahead. Taf Holly means I have to go back
to work for ninety days after cool you off.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
Period.
Speaker 7 (16:45):
Do you think when I go back for ninety days,
those men are going to go to work on that pier.
It's going to cost the money, the company's money to
pay their salaries. Well, they go one from thirty moves
an now maybe they eight. They're gonna be like this,
who's gonna win here? In the long run, You're better
off sitting down and let's get a contract and let's
move on with this world. And could today's world. I'll
(17:07):
cripple you. I will cripple you. And you have no
idea what that means. Nobody does. I support workers.
Speaker 5 (17:18):
Being safe in their workplace, being paid what they're promised,
not what they threaten.
Speaker 3 (17:26):
I do.
Speaker 5 (17:29):
I don't support threats on the American people. I know
some people do. I know for some people, especially from
union families. I've got friends and they think this is
cool and it's tough and mafia and not me.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
I don't go for that. You do to be great.
We'll have a logistics expert named Ross Kennedy on this
moment to talk about it.
Speaker 5 (17:50):
Just scene scared to death of you, and they remain
scared to death of Michael Show.
Speaker 3 (17:55):
You're not going anywhere even if Trump does, You're not.
Speaker 5 (18:00):
Since we're talking about ports, and since we're talking about
logistics and the supply chain and things that we never
talk about until they go down and then you get
a long shoreman's strike and now you can't get the
products you need to do business to survive.
Speaker 3 (18:18):
Ross Kennedy is the founder of.
Speaker 5 (18:19):
Fortis Analysis, a US based logistics and supply chain advisory team,
and as good an expert as you're going to find
on the subject.
Speaker 3 (18:27):
Ross, thanks for making time for us. Really appreciated.
Speaker 8 (18:30):
Michael, Thank you, sir.
Speaker 5 (18:31):
So I know you're a busy man today because in
talking to my friend Jessic Kelly, he had said, make
sure you get Ross on because I'm talking to him
as well. Let's talk about what happens short term and
long term with this long shoreman's strike and how this
affects the average person.
Speaker 8 (18:52):
Absolutely, so you know, most people have any extent are
aware at all of what a long shortman is, what
supports really do the function in our economy, because the
United States is heavily consumptive economy, we import a lot
more than we export in terms of physical things. You know,
we import components, auto parts, uh, you know, commercial goods
(19:16):
for the shelves. We import a lot more food than
people realize. We export big heavy things, you know that
the energy products and food and minerals and large equipment.
The because that balance has weighted so heavily towards containerized goods,
which is the primary mode of transportation that the longshore
(19:36):
and uh, you know strike impacts at the ports. There
it radiates up, down and outwards, you know, for the
US economy. And this specific situation is very I would
use the word interesting from an academic standpoint. However, interesting
in this case means it is a loaded situation. Big picture,
(20:01):
a lot of pain, right, so big picture. The longshoreman
strikes with the International Longshoreman's Association. They are one of
two longshoreman union that represents the workers that work inside
of ports. You know, the historical term of longshoreman continues
to apply.
Speaker 3 (20:17):
The roles are different.
Speaker 8 (20:19):
But about forty percent of the ports in the US,
you know, stretching from there's actually some ports on the
Great Lakes, you know, the Chicago Cleveland that are impacted
by this, But generally speaking, you're talking about the primary
ocean ports that kind of run the eastern seaboard of
the US down to Florida and then the Gulf Coast
seaboard over to Houston.
Speaker 3 (20:38):
About thirty five.
Speaker 8 (20:39):
Ports are are going to be heavily impacted by this.
And what has happened right now is out of twelve
oh one an agreement between the US Maritime Association, which
represents it's the collective bargaining body of the ports terminals
operators and the ship owners or the shipping companies Mayor's
MSc know being some big famous ones as well as
(21:01):
the Chinese company Costco are kind of in this multi
year gridlock with the with the Ila long shortman it's
about forty five thousand of their eighty thousand employees are
impacted by the striking decision over really two things, wages
and automation. The longshoremen are paid about thirty to forty
percent less on the East Coast and Golf Coast than
(21:22):
their counterparts and the ILWU out on the West Coast
and up in Canada, and so wages is number one.
You know, they haven't had a pay increase in about
a decade.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
You know, effectively, what thing what it is? Are we
what are we talking about? Average?
Speaker 8 (21:36):
Yeah, average salary for the forty five thousand workers is
about eighty one thousand. It's about one hundred and seventeen
thousand for the long shoreman out on the West coast.
That's not including things like overtime benefits, very substantial pensions.
But about eighty to eighty one thousand is the average wage.
Highest salary within you know, within the organizations, can be
the president Howard Daggett, who is He's at about seven
(21:57):
to a little over seven hundred thousand, but the ground
the docks is doing eighty eighty one one hundred thousand,
depending on seniority.
Speaker 3 (22:04):
So wages is the first issue.
Speaker 8 (22:06):
Number two is and it's really the existential sticking point
because the USMAX the ship owners imports, would you know,
pretty happily bend on wages if that was the only issue.
Is this issue of automation imports, meaning utilizing automated machine
or remotely operated cranes to stow and destow the vessels,
(22:27):
using automated trolleys to move containers around on the port,
automated equipment to do stacking of the containers and positioning.
All of those are things that are currently done manually
at most ports by humans within the isla's footprint. The
port of Norfolk stands out as an interesting example. Its
largest container terminal VI or actually it's the ig and
(22:51):
AW Virginia International Gateway, is a semi automated port, meaning
some of the work done inside the port facility is
actually already automated. And what we've seen in Norfolk is
a substantial increase in efficiency, reduction in costs to the
downstream individual, the import of the exporter that's actually paying
the bill for all of this, relative to a lot
(23:13):
of the other ports, where everything is still human human operated,
and automation is existential as a threat.
Speaker 3 (23:20):
To the longshoreman.
Speaker 8 (23:22):
You're talking about eighty thousand members who their one value
to US logistics and supply chains at the ports is
the human ability to move a container piece of cargo
around in time and space. Most major ports in the world,
number of the terminals in Qingdao, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzen
(23:44):
in China, Jakarta and Indonesia, Singapore, Rotterdam, Antwerp in Europe,
a lot of these ports have gone fully automated or
semi automated at bare minimum, and they are far more efficient.
And so the narrative works against the longshoreman of hey,
we want to do good for the economy, keep American
(24:04):
workers employed. In this particular case, because of the complexity
of handling very large, heavy things, the machines tend to
do it better. So that's the real sticking point here
for the Union is it's that if they've bend it
all in automation, then you're talking about a very short
lifespan relative to the one hundred and thirty year existence
(24:25):
of the organization.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
But ross is that realistic?
Speaker 5 (24:28):
I mean, I mean, could the horse buggy operator really
say we're not going to run the horse buggies.
Speaker 3 (24:34):
If y'all are going to buy cars.
Speaker 5 (24:36):
The cars are coming, right, automation's coming, electricity was coming,
computers were coming. Realistically saying we demand that we get
to work and perform these tasks rather than automation.
Speaker 3 (24:49):
And to prove that we get to do it, we're
going to not do it.
Speaker 5 (24:52):
I just think that this is I think it's just
sisiphy and task you're pushing this thing up here. It's coming,
automation's coming, cost savings are coming more. With Bross Kennedy,
he is our global shipping expert.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
With the long shoreman striker products, we are going to supporter.
We've been to supporter. You haven't been ship with the
modicle Varia, and I haven't been to Europe.
Speaker 5 (25:16):
Ross Kennedy is an expert in supply chains and in
shipping and in logistics. With the longshoreman's strike, he is
our guest to talk about what this means for the workers,
the companies that hire them, and at the end of
the day, this is going to affect every single American.
It's one of the few things that does even more
(25:38):
than an air traffic controller strike, because not everybody flies.
Everybody uses products that travel internationally. And that's not just
the Chinese products coming in here. That's our products being
exported out of there as well. You were talking about
the international companies that control a lot of the trade
that's bringing in products that be European or Asian, and
(26:02):
they have embraced automation at their other ports and they're
simply not going to pay Americans what they considered to
be wages that could be wiped out because they don't
feel like they need to, and the American consumer would
pay more as a result of it. And maybe some
people say, hey, I'll pay more for the product so
the longshoremen can make their wages.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
But I think they're lying.
Speaker 5 (26:23):
I think most people buy cheap Chinese products no matter
what they say. And walmart't proved that people weren't willing
to live up to what they promised. But let's talk
about who who those players are on that side of
this transaction ross.
Speaker 8 (26:37):
Yeah, absolutely so, as far as the you know, American
interfaces if you will, and an international logistics movement or
supply chain, you know what we call the shipment life cycle.
Your railroads are are US or Canadian owns. You have
two Class one carriers out of Canada, one of which
(26:58):
has actually merged with an American carrier in last year.
But you're talking about North American companies that they you know, they.
Speaker 3 (27:07):
Employ people here, they do all of that.
Speaker 8 (27:09):
You also have all of the many, many, many American
owned and operated drage companies, strage just being the industry
term of art for trucking a container rather than you know,
a fifty three foot drive hand or something, but the
vast majority of shipowners and the vast majority of terminals
(27:30):
that actually you know, receive the.
Speaker 3 (27:32):
Cargo in prep it for movement.
Speaker 8 (27:34):
Basically everything at the water's edge is ultimately a foreign
company or a country that is the beneficiary of that.
Drilling down the impact of these relatively uncharitable entities that
really are jockeying for control over what they perceived to
(27:55):
be the future of maritime commerce in the US. Everything
is said, Michael, ninety percent of everything moves on water,
both legal goods and illegal goods. The impact to the
average American consumer, particularly those who work for manufacturers that
source their components overseas, when when it comes down to it,
(28:17):
it's anywhere from one to five billion dollars per day
impact to the US economy from this particular strike. If
both unions had been on strike at the same time,
you would be talking about a complete shutdown of the
American economy. The nature though, because it's this very interconnected,
difficult way of moving things to and from the rest
(28:42):
of the world, a day will take a week to
recover normal operational throughput for the ports. A seven days
strike would take about three months. It's an exponential thing.
That was why in the early days of COVID, I
was one of the few voices you know, talking to
the Trump administration directly saying, Hey, the first thing you
(29:03):
need to do is ease the bottleneck, ease the constraints,
and build some excess flex into the system so that
the ports don't get congested because they can't really hold
a lot and there's not a lot of places for those
containers to go when the ships aren't turning and they're
sitting out in the water. As we famously saw during
the peak of the COVID supply chain disruption, over one
(29:24):
hundred ships at anchor off the west coast of the US.
All of this is a compounding effect that downstream of
that are American employees and consumers. If you work at
an auto manufacturer, if you work for an energy company,
if you work for a power utility, if you work
for a food manufacturer, anything that relies on machines, equipment, parts,
(29:50):
or components that come from overseas, there is a long
tail on this for that business that employs these American workers.
During COVID, hundreds of commpanies went out of business that
were in some way pretty tidally locked to global supply
chain and global logistics sourcing operations, and of those that
didn't go out of business, the rest were either merged
(30:11):
or acquired for a dime or a quarter on the
dollar the value of the company because they didn't have
the cash flow to absorb such a supply chain crunch.
And there's very few options. If you're fortunate enough to
need components that can be packaged up relatively small and
put on air freight, you're still paying anywhere from five
to ten x on a per kilogram of weight basis
(30:35):
of that thing to be flown via air versus brought
in a container.
Speaker 3 (30:40):
Well, it's incredible.
Speaker 5 (30:42):
I've watched these things on YouTube, and I think this
is one of those that YouTube has been really good
at is taking smart guys like you and giving you
a platform where you can explain things to us folks
that are not experts in whatever your area is, whether
it's engines or aviation, or bitcoin or crypto or in
(31:05):
this case, international shipping. Is fascinating to me to see
the many hands and now clause that touch a product
from the time it starts as a raw material to
the time it ends up on my table or in
my bathroom.
Speaker 3 (31:20):
It's really fascinating.
Speaker 5 (31:22):
I mean it's staggering to me and you can't imagine
how many people do that. Let me ask you, because
I have two minutes left, I want to make sure
we get to this. How does this thing play out?
Ross Kennedy. I think what's.
Speaker 8 (31:33):
Most likely to happen is that you're going to see
a resolution that everybody is unhappy with. And I've heard
it paraphrase that that's the definition of a good compromise,
is that everybody walks away with an agreement that makes
them unhappy. In this particular case, I'm fairly confident the
longshom and will get everything they want on the wages.
(31:54):
They will have to bend a little bit on the
issue of automation, because the long this goes on, the
more likely the public is to blame the long short
because it's easier to personify an attack on us, you know,
a group of people versus a group of companies. The
likeliest output from the automation side is is that there
(32:16):
will be a phased in, stepped in approach to automation. Okay,
over five years, you know, we'll bring these components in
over ten years, we'll bring these components in.
Speaker 3 (32:28):
First ride of refusal.
Speaker 8 (32:29):
Goes to training and employment of our people to remotely
operate and maintain these pieces of equipment, and anybody else
who can't get on board with that gets a super
fat buyout.
Speaker 3 (32:40):
I think that's.
Speaker 8 (32:41):
What's most likely to happen, is going to be very
large lucrative payouts for the members that are impacted by
automation in five or ten years, and not in exchange
for higher wages and more secure benefits. Now, that's probably
what's likely to happen. The one dog not barking in
(33:01):
most circles is the invocation of path partly, which was
last used by President Reagan to force the air traffic
controllers back to work for eighty days so that a
negotiation could be agreed upon. But that requires some strength
of character for a chief executive of the country to
invoke that. I certainly don't see the expertise or commitment
(33:23):
to understanding this issue amongst anybody who are the key
stakeholders in this administration for the effort. So it will
be worked out. It will take a few more days,
I think, But what's likely to happen is is, yes,
they will get their longsterom will get their wage increases,
they will get significant buyouts and early retirement, and you'll
(33:43):
see additional automation begin implement in the next five years
or so. In the impacted ports,
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