April 10, 2025 • 17 mins
Chris rips into Trump’s tariff policy, calling it one of the 'dumbest self-inflicted economic errors of all time.' He breaks down the market chaos, a 90-day tariff reprieve after donor pressure, and a 25% effective rate with 150% on China, warning of a looming recession. Markowski mocks the 'Art of the Deal' hype, critiques reserve currency nonsense from Trump’s team, and shares small business woes. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact it we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
God Willing Someday, someday, I hope to have grandkids. I do.
I hope to have grandkids. And my grandkids are going
to come and they're going to talk to me about
their homework, business homework, economic homework, and we're going to
discuss the one of the greatest We're going to argue
one of the greatest economic policy errors of all time.
(00:37):
And I'm going to tell them, yes, yes, yes, I
live through that. I watched it unfold. I watch one
of the dumbest things of all time, self inflicted stupidity
of all time, all time. Anyway, Yeah, how'd that market
bounce back work for you? Kids? I uh, I was
(01:03):
watching it late afternoon again, and I was off to
my uh my daughter's game, and I knew exactly what
was going to happen today. I knew we're gonna have
a sell off again. You had a short squeeze, a
lot of computerized trades taking the market in one direction.
(01:23):
Oh oh, he but he took the tariffs off. Oh
look at they were all excited on the five on
Fox News. And what did Ainsleye say, and what did
all those other mental midgets have to say? Oh it
was great, Always a genius move by Trump. Oh, I
got art of the deal. Art of the deal. That's
what Caroline told us, right, Oh, classic art of the deal.
(01:46):
And you see Trump yesterday. Oh, look at the market.
It's gotta be some sort of record. Yeah. Again, we're
not dealing with the sharpest tax in the box by
any stretch of the imagination. I again, I think I
think percent is putting out fires left, right and all
over the place. Yeah, tariffs are up twenty five percent.
(02:13):
Just because we took them off certain countries doesn't mean
our effective tariff rate is twenty five per one hundred
and fifty percent on China. How do you think that's
going to affect millions of businesses that are relying upon
I mean, just little things, parts, rare earth. I mean,
(02:36):
it's just there's so much you can't you can't even
get your arms around it. Oh yeah, they're gonna Oh no, no,
don't worry that where We're gonna have factories built here
in the United States lickety split to start making all
that stuff. Oh no, no, no, no, no, don't worry.
Don't worries. Is the maga? Is the super Trumpsters out there?
Ah yeah, we got countries banging down our door looking
(02:58):
to make deals. What is these deals that you speak of?
What was the last deal that you cut? Man? Last
time I checked, I thought the Ukraine Russia thing was
supposed to be done on day one because you're you're
a brilliant deal maker. Let me walk everybody through. What's
(03:23):
what happened this past week? Tuesday night, Tuesday night again
I talked about this. Watch Trump given completely off the
rails speech. But he you know, he does that from
time to time. Are begging, not begging us, begging us
to cut deals? On and on and on. You watch
the spreads, and you watch the bond market fall out
(03:45):
of bed, fall it a bed. Somebody made Donald Trump
an offer he couldn't refuse. Just that simple, whether it's
a bond market, whether it's donor his donor's, whatever it
may be. Somebody made him an offer he couldn't reviews
and said he had to do something. He did something.
(04:07):
Oh oh, look at that ninety day reprieve. Yeah, it
didn't really do much quite frankly, because there's a ton
of uncertainty out there. Yeah sir, I'm drinking a right now.
I'm not That's what I'm going to diet Coke say this.
(04:28):
Coca Colas are pretty pretty big brand, right. Maybe young
people not remember, but back in the nineteen eighties, Coca
Cola at a misstep, misstep. It decided that it was
going to come up with a new recipe, New Coke.
Didn't go over well, didn't go over well, and then
(04:51):
they had to bring back their old formula, called them
it was called Classic Coke for a while. Brand destruction.
Light Look what they did, the greatest brand in the
history of the planet. Well, I'm going to take this
outside of you know, religion. I think one of be
(05:11):
the USA. USA and the President has damaged our brand.
I don't know other way to put it to, but
the brand is damaged. And listen, okay, I see what's
happening in the credit markets right now, and it's no way, no,
(05:39):
it's no good. It's a mess out there. People have
lost confidence, they've lost confidence in what's going on. And
what might be done next. If you think this is
good for the country, you're crazy. Recession is firmly on
(06:02):
the table for crying out loud. Trump even said that
all right, I we'll deal with some pain to heal
the recession. He was worried about causing a depression. Dude, stop,
stop what you're doing. You are screwing everything up. And
then okay, of course, of course you've got the fast
response from the White House on social media and all
(06:25):
the all the little influences out there, and they're yeah,
they're becoming more and more scarce. Ah, inflation was way down,
great numbers today. You know that if last Wednesday didn't happen,
the markets would have ripped where we'd be at right now.
(06:48):
But no, no, no, no, okay, no, it's right. Trump's
fighting against Wall Street, right, fighting against Wall Street. Let
me tell you what, who's going to get hit in
a recession? Middle class and poor people, they're they're the
ones that are going to get hit by a recession.
How'd you feel? How'd you feel if you are someone
(07:11):
installs flooring, commercial flooring, and you've got various different contracts
ready to go. You gave bids, you know, you put
bids out and you got the you know, ready to go.
You've got your staff, you've got your workers ready to go,
and all of a sudden you get an email telling
you that the flooring that you ordered is going way,
(07:33):
way up because of tariffs. What do you what if?
What if you where do you go? You go? What
if you go to the person who you know you
did the deal with and said, hey, listen, I can't
do it any about these tariffs went up and they're like, nah,
cancel it. You get stuck with a lot of flooring.
Don't you you think that this is good for the country.
(07:56):
Oh yeah, this is a strengthening national security. Fantastic. Again,
it boggles the mind. There was a and again I
didn't even look at this. This was an actual, an
actual paper, position paper put together by Steve Moran. You
(08:17):
see him from time to time. He's one of Trump's
lackeys about trade in our country, in our position. Arnart
Bertrand actually did a good piece on this. I want
to I want to basically highlight how ridiculous our position
is right now when it comes to our reserve currency status.
(08:41):
Mirren's argument, he says, is to is to reposition the
global reserve currency status of the dollar, not as a privilege,
because it is a privilege, but a burden that the
rest of the world needs to compensate us for bearing.
He says having the dollar as a reserve currency has
(09:04):
caused persistent currency distortions and contributed, along with other countries,
unfair barriers to trade, to unsustainable trade deficits which have
decimated our manufacturing sector. So he wants to give up
wants to give up the reserve currency status of the dollar. No,
he doesn't want to give it up. I mean, people
(09:26):
don't understand what the reserve currency status of the dollars
basically means. We just can we can print as much
money as we want. We have a magic money machine.
So no, he doesn't want to get rid of the
magic money machine. He says that Americas and I quote,
financial dominance cannot be taken for granted, and the Trump
(09:48):
administration is determined to preserve it. But this same financial
dominance comes at a cost, and other nations need to
pay for it. Why he basically said that countries should
(10:10):
write checks to the Treasury to help us financial global
public goods. Now, let me try to put this in
a different way, just to see just how ridiculous is
this is kind of like I'll use a well, I'll
use a modern pop star that I like chaptains will
be uh fairly attractive, very talented star. Let's say, let's
(10:33):
say Dual Lippa. Dua Lipa comes out and says that,
you know, you know I look like this. You know
I you know I'm good looking. I've got all of
this talent, all of this stuff. You know, it's quite
the burden to bear. And I think you guys should
(10:54):
pay me for this burden. You know, I know you guys.
You know you look at me all the time, you
watch me I stage, listen to my music. You know,
it's quite the burden that I have to bear. I
think you should pay me for that. Dumb dumb Bertrand
(11:15):
or Bertrand puts it, he says, uh, it's the equivalent
of Samson asking everyone to pay him to keep his hair. Yeah,
this this allows us allows basically the rest of the
world kind of subsidizes us. It's it's kind of beyond
(11:38):
the pale. Again, look at it. You're with as a
private individual, you cannot one cannot indefinitely buy more from
others than what you already earn. At some point you
gotta pay unless unless you're paying with your own currency,
(12:00):
that's your payment. It's a currency that everyone uses. Again,
So when that happens, basically all normal rules of economic
gravity are suspended. Other countries have to balance their books. Eventually,
our reserve status gives us the ability to consume and
consume and consume and consume more than we actually produce,
(12:24):
and the world's will accept our dollars. Again that that that,
that to me is a bit of a privilege, is
it not. We can print our own money and spend
as much as we'd like. Yeah, again, I Marentz pieces
is so ridiculous at its face. Again, it boggles the mind,
(12:49):
it really does. We're looking at a situation right now,
situation right now where you know, everyone thought, oh, okay,
you know, we're all set, everything's good. No, we're more
than likely going to be heading towards a recession, self
(13:10):
inflicted self inflicted recession. Maybe we'll scape, I don't know.
I continue to expect more and more volatility until the
president eventually finds a way to save face, because that's
what he needs to do. You know, he can't he
can't have any bad public perception of himself. To me,
(13:33):
the right thing to do is that, you know again,
fire Lutnik, fire Navarro, fire everybody on your trade staff. Apologize, apologize,
and then look to cut a real deal because this
this is a mess. It's not it's not done people,
(13:56):
We're gonna mess moving forward again. You had a you
had the House passed the GOP, the Senate budget plan
again that you know, it's basically turning it to reconciliation stage,
and then they've got to hash out to cuts and
taxes and all of that stuff that, for all intents
and purposes, should have been good news. Inflation numbers way
(14:16):
down today should have been good news. It's not. It's not.
There's just too much uncertainty. And Jassey today from Amazon saying, wow,
you know, somebody's gotta pay. Ain't gonna be us, Basically,
that's what he said. There's that line from Wall Street.
Someone's gonna pay where I'm paying them, So the price
(14:40):
is gonna go up for the consumer. That's on you.
That's what we have to deal with at this point
in time, and until till the president wakes up, I
don't really know what to tell you it is. We're
in a very very frustrating situation. I again, I mentioned before,
(15:01):
I have no control over what the president does, and
that's you know again, Congress doesn't have any control over this.
These tariffs are going to hurt many small businesses. I've
been speaking to them, and you know, people wonder why
Chris there, you gotta embrace the suck out there. No,
(15:21):
I don't like embracing stupidity. And quite frankly, I'm speaking
to business owners and they're appalled for Paul. I don't
know if you saw Trump's approval ratings. They're tanking. Just
just he can't do it. He's not capable. He's not
capable of admitting a mistake. Just go out there and
(15:44):
say this screwed up. You're fired. You're fired, You're fired.
Pull an apprentice, right there, move on, move on, live
to fight another day. No one likes any of this
crap that's going on, except for you're sick of fans
and the influencers that are pushing crap on social media.
(16:08):
The reality is this is it's not over. Okay, none
of this is over. We've got a lot we've got
to work through. I've already told investors. I've been telling
investors out there, you know what, the best way you know,
you gotta go through. This best way out is through,
and that's what we're going to have to continue to
(16:29):
do that. Again, it's frustrating to me. You don't. It's
frustrating to me because you know I talk about wasted talent.
You know that line from the movie Bronx Tale, statust
thing in the world is wasted talent. Think about the
things that we had lined up. Trump's doing an amazing
job on the border, they get maybe we'll get immigrant
(16:52):
agg immigration bill and immigration reform and sensible immigration. The
job that doze is doing and cutting government waste and
highlighting and finding out where it is. Honestly, it's basically
it at this point time. But again, in a short
period of time, that's a lot, it's a lot. We
(17:14):
were fired up. We were excited because we're going to
get rid of regulations. We're going to make it easier
to do business in this country. And what did you do.
You slapped the country with a tax. Slap the country
with an enormous tax and a boatload of uncertainty. That's
what we wanted to get rid of. Taxes, uncertainty, regulation,
(17:36):
and you keep piling on watch dog on Wall Street
dot com
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact it we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
God Willing Someday, someday, I hope to have grandkids. I do.
I hope to have grandkids. And my grandkids are going
to come and they're going to talk to me about
their homework, business homework, economic homework, and we're going to
discuss the one of the greatest We're going to argue
one of the greatest economic policy errors of all time.
(00:37):
And I'm going to tell them, yes, yes, yes, I
live through that. I watched it unfold. I watch one
of the dumbest things of all time, self inflicted stupidity
of all time, all time. Anyway, Yeah, how'd that market
bounce back work for you? Kids? I uh, I was
(01:03):
watching it late afternoon again, and I was off to
my uh my daughter's game, and I knew exactly what
was going to happen today. I knew we're gonna have
a sell off again. You had a short squeeze, a
lot of computerized trades taking the market in one direction.
(01:23):
Oh oh, he but he took the tariffs off. Oh
look at they were all excited on the five on
Fox News. And what did Ainsleye say, and what did
all those other mental midgets have to say? Oh it
was great, Always a genius move by Trump. Oh, I
got art of the deal. Art of the deal. That's
what Caroline told us, right, Oh, classic art of the deal.
(01:46):
And you see Trump yesterday. Oh, look at the market.
It's gotta be some sort of record. Yeah. Again, we're
not dealing with the sharpest tax in the box by
any stretch of the imagination. I again, I think I
think percent is putting out fires left, right and all
over the place. Yeah, tariffs are up twenty five percent.
(02:13):
Just because we took them off certain countries doesn't mean
our effective tariff rate is twenty five per one hundred
and fifty percent on China. How do you think that's
going to affect millions of businesses that are relying upon
I mean, just little things, parts, rare earth. I mean,
(02:36):
it's just there's so much you can't you can't even
get your arms around it. Oh yeah, they're gonna Oh no, no,
don't worry that where We're gonna have factories built here
in the United States lickety split to start making all
that stuff. Oh no, no, no, no, no, don't worry.
Don't worries. Is the maga? Is the super Trumpsters out there?
Ah yeah, we got countries banging down our door looking
(02:58):
to make deals. What is these deals that you speak of?
What was the last deal that you cut? Man? Last
time I checked, I thought the Ukraine Russia thing was
supposed to be done on day one because you're you're
a brilliant deal maker. Let me walk everybody through. What's
(03:23):
what happened this past week? Tuesday night, Tuesday night again
I talked about this. Watch Trump given completely off the
rails speech. But he you know, he does that from
time to time. Are begging, not begging us, begging us
to cut deals? On and on and on. You watch
the spreads, and you watch the bond market fall out
(03:45):
of bed, fall it a bed. Somebody made Donald Trump
an offer he couldn't refuse. Just that simple, whether it's
a bond market, whether it's donor his donor's, whatever it
may be. Somebody made him an offer he couldn't reviews
and said he had to do something. He did something.
(04:07):
Oh oh, look at that ninety day reprieve. Yeah, it
didn't really do much quite frankly, because there's a ton
of uncertainty out there. Yeah sir, I'm drinking a right now.
I'm not That's what I'm going to diet Coke say this.
(04:28):
Coca Colas are pretty pretty big brand, right. Maybe young
people not remember, but back in the nineteen eighties, Coca
Cola at a misstep, misstep. It decided that it was
going to come up with a new recipe, New Coke.
Didn't go over well, didn't go over well, and then
(04:51):
they had to bring back their old formula, called them
it was called Classic Coke for a while. Brand destruction.
Light Look what they did, the greatest brand in the
history of the planet. Well, I'm going to take this
outside of you know, religion. I think one of be
(05:11):
the USA. USA and the President has damaged our brand.
I don't know other way to put it to, but
the brand is damaged. And listen, okay, I see what's
happening in the credit markets right now, and it's no way, no,
(05:39):
it's no good. It's a mess out there. People have
lost confidence, they've lost confidence in what's going on. And
what might be done next. If you think this is
good for the country, you're crazy. Recession is firmly on
(06:02):
the table for crying out loud. Trump even said that
all right, I we'll deal with some pain to heal
the recession. He was worried about causing a depression. Dude, stop,
stop what you're doing. You are screwing everything up. And
then okay, of course, of course you've got the fast
response from the White House on social media and all
(06:25):
the all the little influences out there, and they're yeah,
they're becoming more and more scarce. Ah, inflation was way down,
great numbers today. You know that if last Wednesday didn't happen,
the markets would have ripped where we'd be at right now.
(06:48):
But no, no, no, no, okay, no, it's right. Trump's
fighting against Wall Street, right, fighting against Wall Street. Let
me tell you what, who's going to get hit in
a recession? Middle class and poor people, they're they're the
ones that are going to get hit by a recession.
How'd you feel? How'd you feel if you are someone
(07:11):
installs flooring, commercial flooring, and you've got various different contracts
ready to go. You gave bids, you know, you put
bids out and you got the you know, ready to go.
You've got your staff, you've got your workers ready to go,
and all of a sudden you get an email telling
you that the flooring that you ordered is going way,
(07:33):
way up because of tariffs. What do you what if?
What if you where do you go? You go? What
if you go to the person who you know you
did the deal with and said, hey, listen, I can't
do it any about these tariffs went up and they're like, nah,
cancel it. You get stuck with a lot of flooring.
Don't you you think that this is good for the country.
(07:56):
Oh yeah, this is a strengthening national security. Fantastic. Again,
it boggles the mind. There was a and again I
didn't even look at this. This was an actual, an
actual paper, position paper put together by Steve Moran. You
(08:17):
see him from time to time. He's one of Trump's
lackeys about trade in our country, in our position. Arnart
Bertrand actually did a good piece on this. I want
to I want to basically highlight how ridiculous our position
is right now when it comes to our reserve currency status.
(08:41):
Mirren's argument, he says, is to is to reposition the
global reserve currency status of the dollar, not as a privilege,
because it is a privilege, but a burden that the
rest of the world needs to compensate us for bearing.
He says having the dollar as a reserve currency has
(09:04):
caused persistent currency distortions and contributed, along with other countries,
unfair barriers to trade, to unsustainable trade deficits which have
decimated our manufacturing sector. So he wants to give up
wants to give up the reserve currency status of the dollar. No,
he doesn't want to give it up. I mean, people
(09:26):
don't understand what the reserve currency status of the dollars
basically means. We just can we can print as much
money as we want. We have a magic money machine.
So no, he doesn't want to get rid of the
magic money machine. He says that Americas and I quote,
financial dominance cannot be taken for granted, and the Trump
(09:48):
administration is determined to preserve it. But this same financial
dominance comes at a cost, and other nations need to
pay for it. Why he basically said that countries should
(10:10):
write checks to the Treasury to help us financial global
public goods. Now, let me try to put this in
a different way, just to see just how ridiculous is
this is kind of like I'll use a well, I'll
use a modern pop star that I like chaptains will
be uh fairly attractive, very talented star. Let's say, let's
(10:33):
say Dual Lippa. Dua Lipa comes out and says that,
you know, you know I look like this. You know
I you know I'm good looking. I've got all of
this talent, all of this stuff. You know, it's quite
the burden to bear. And I think you guys should
(10:54):
pay me for this burden. You know, I know you guys.
You know you look at me all the time, you
watch me I stage, listen to my music. You know,
it's quite the burden that I have to bear. I
think you should pay me for that. Dumb dumb Bertrand
(11:15):
or Bertrand puts it, he says, uh, it's the equivalent
of Samson asking everyone to pay him to keep his hair. Yeah,
this this allows us allows basically the rest of the
world kind of subsidizes us. It's it's kind of beyond
(11:38):
the pale. Again, look at it. You're with as a
private individual, you cannot one cannot indefinitely buy more from
others than what you already earn. At some point you
gotta pay unless unless you're paying with your own currency,
(12:00):
that's your payment. It's a currency that everyone uses. Again,
So when that happens, basically all normal rules of economic
gravity are suspended. Other countries have to balance their books. Eventually,
our reserve status gives us the ability to consume and
consume and consume and consume more than we actually produce,
(12:24):
and the world's will accept our dollars. Again that that that,
that to me is a bit of a privilege, is
it not. We can print our own money and spend
as much as we'd like. Yeah, again, I Marentz pieces
is so ridiculous at its face. Again, it boggles the mind,
(12:49):
it really does. We're looking at a situation right now,
situation right now where you know, everyone thought, oh, okay,
you know, we're all set, everything's good. No, we're more
than likely going to be heading towards a recession, self
(13:10):
inflicted self inflicted recession. Maybe we'll scape, I don't know.
I continue to expect more and more volatility until the
president eventually finds a way to save face, because that's
what he needs to do. You know, he can't he
can't have any bad public perception of himself. To me,
(13:33):
the right thing to do is that, you know again,
fire Lutnik, fire Navarro, fire everybody on your trade staff. Apologize, apologize,
and then look to cut a real deal because this
this is a mess. It's not it's not done people,
(13:56):
We're gonna mess moving forward again. You had a you
had the House passed the GOP, the Senate budget plan
again that you know, it's basically turning it to reconciliation stage,
and then they've got to hash out to cuts and
taxes and all of that stuff that, for all intents
and purposes, should have been good news. Inflation numbers way
(14:16):
down today should have been good news. It's not. It's not.
There's just too much uncertainty. And Jassey today from Amazon saying, wow,
you know, somebody's gotta pay. Ain't gonna be us, Basically,
that's what he said. There's that line from Wall Street.
Someone's gonna pay where I'm paying them, So the price
(14:40):
is gonna go up for the consumer. That's on you.
That's what we have to deal with at this point
in time, and until till the president wakes up, I
don't really know what to tell you it is. We're
in a very very frustrating situation. I again, I mentioned before,
(15:01):
I have no control over what the president does, and
that's you know again, Congress doesn't have any control over this.
These tariffs are going to hurt many small businesses. I've
been speaking to them, and you know, people wonder why
Chris there, you gotta embrace the suck out there. No,
(15:21):
I don't like embracing stupidity. And quite frankly, I'm speaking
to business owners and they're appalled for Paul. I don't
know if you saw Trump's approval ratings. They're tanking. Just
just he can't do it. He's not capable. He's not
capable of admitting a mistake. Just go out there and
(15:44):
say this screwed up. You're fired. You're fired, You're fired.
Pull an apprentice, right there, move on, move on, live
to fight another day. No one likes any of this
crap that's going on, except for you're sick of fans
and the influencers that are pushing crap on social media.
(16:08):
The reality is this is it's not over. Okay, none
of this is over. We've got a lot we've got
to work through. I've already told investors. I've been telling
investors out there, you know what, the best way you know,
you gotta go through. This best way out is through,
and that's what we're going to have to continue to
(16:29):
do that. Again, it's frustrating to me. You don't. It's
frustrating to me because you know I talk about wasted talent.
You know that line from the movie Bronx Tale, statust
thing in the world is wasted talent. Think about the
things that we had lined up. Trump's doing an amazing
job on the border, they get maybe we'll get immigrant
(16:52):
agg immigration bill and immigration reform and sensible immigration. The
job that doze is doing and cutting government waste and
highlighting and finding out where it is. Honestly, it's basically
it at this point time. But again, in a short
period of time, that's a lot, it's a lot. We
(17:14):
were fired up. We were excited because we're going to
get rid of regulations. We're going to make it easier
to do business in this country. And what did you do.
You slapped the country with a tax. Slap the country
with an enormous tax and a boatload of uncertainty. That's
what we wanted to get rid of. Taxes, uncertainty, regulation,
(17:36):
and you keep piling on watch dog on Wall Street
dot com
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I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.