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April 16, 2025 23 mins
Chris slams the Trump administration’s tariff policies, likening them to destroying a village to save it, arguing they’re crushing small businesses while big corporations like Nvidia and AMD find workarounds. He debunks claims that NAFTA or the EU are the root of manufacturing woes, citing data showing job losses tied to China’s WTO entry, and calls for targeted tariffs and a business-friendly environment to rebuild U.S. industry without sparking a global trade war that hurts Main Street the most. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact it we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
So what you're saying is we have to destroy trade
in order to save it. And I'm stealing that bit
from well, was it Peter Arnett quoting an odd name
major during the tech offensive in Vietnam where it turned

(00:38):
out in order to save the village, we need to
destroy it. Something like that.

Speaker 3 (00:44):
That's where we're at right now as far as I'm
concerned when it comes to the current administration and trade,
destroying trade in order.

Speaker 2 (00:56):
To save trade and save this country. I've gotten a
tremendous amount of feedback from listeners, clients, people all over
the country, various different camps. People oftentimes will send me, hey, Chris,
you got to listen to this podcast and this one

(01:16):
said this and have a listen to what they had
to say. And sometimes these are podcasts of people that
I have a great deal of respect for. I'll give
you an example, like a Victor Davis Hanson talked a
little bit about it his latest podcast and the markets
and acting emotionally towards the markets. Unfortunately, unfortunately Professor Hanson

(01:40):
and I read all his books, A big fan of his.
They're wrong, they're wrong, They're right on the sense is that, yes,
will the markets right themselves? Yeah, we said that, we
said that. What was the second day, the day after

(02:01):
Liberation Day? I did a podcast And what did I say?
Business will find a way. Business will find a way.
Big companies will find a way. They always do. They
always do. They have the right connects, they're tied in

(02:23):
to government. Take for today, for example, you had the
story about well AMD seeing eight hundred million dollars in
charges from US export controls, in Vidia saying it's going
to record a five point five billion dollar charge tied
to its H two processors that are exported to China.

(02:46):
And you're going to continue to see more and more
stories like this moving forward. But again, when all is
said and done, it's in video, it's AMD. They'll find
a way, they'll get cutouts, they'll have their breaks here
in there. The issue, the issue is this is going

(03:12):
to kill small business here in this country. One of
the themes that I perpetually repeat again and again and
again for all Americans is to go out there, build, create, protect,
and teach. Small business is not going to have these advantages.
Small businesses are not going to be able to take

(03:33):
advantage as regulatory capture. They don't have that type of power.
It's something that has always bothered me. It's something that
I've always railed about. It's wrong, and they are going
to bear the brunt. But you don't think that this country,

(03:55):
You wou'd rather have this country run by the oligarchs
and the big companies out there, or would you like
to see more of main street thrive, because that's that's
what we're being told. Ah, this is gott to be
great for main street? How How is this great for
main street? I can't tell you the amount of people

(04:19):
out there that they don't know what to do next.
All of a sudden, they're expecting a certain delivery or
a certain input, whatever it may be, and the prices
have gone through the roof. It was interesting here just
saw a report Goldman actually put this out, putting out
the data to understand where some basic basic imported home

(04:42):
goods and building materials were sourced. In twenty twenty four,
dishwashers almost all Well fifteen percent, China nineteen percent, Vietnam
twenty six percent, Thailand twelve percent, India one percent, Germany
one percent, Italy nothing here. Drier imports eighty nine percent, Mexico,

(05:04):
small fractions of other places, UH tankless electric tankless water
heaters eighty nine percent, Mexico, gas tank water heaters seventy
three percent, China nineteen percent Mexico. And then you obviously
have the high end brands coming from again Italy, Germany, Sweden,
and Canada. Gas tankless water heater imports. Yeah, I just

(05:29):
built a house. I've got one ninety four percent Mexico,
the rest of Poland, Finland, Germany, Italy, cabinet imports eleven percent,
China two percent, Canada thirty eight percent, South Korea thirty
eight percent, Japan seven percent, Mexico, the rest, you know, Netherlands, Germany,
smaller countries. Vinyl tile imports by market China forty six percent,

(05:56):
Vietnam thirty percent, fourteen Ceramic tile we got sixteen percent,
Italy fifteen percent, Mexico twenty percent, India, Spain eighteen percent.
All of these various different countries. Lighting fixtures I can
go right on down the list. But you get my point.
You get my point. What do you do now as

(06:20):
a contractor what do you do now as a home buyer?
Or you want to buy a brand new or have
a home built with mortgage rates at seven and a
half percent, and all of a sudden the costs are
going up. It's going to make life pretty difficult, is it.

Speaker 3 (06:37):
Not?

Speaker 2 (06:39):
One major homebuilder down here in Florida south of me,
they actually, you know, they were shipping in tons of
stuff ahead of time. Are you actually using their their
office spaces and whatnot just to store various different items
that they're going to need. Try to break this down

(07:03):
to an even greater degree. It was actually a pretty
interesting piece because one of the things we've tried to do,
day in day out here on the program is I
tried to bring receipts, proverbal receipts. I bring you facts.
I'm not Lutnik, I'm not Navarro, I'm not Trump. I'm

(07:23):
not going to go out there and just spew complete
another bs because it, you know, it suits them at
a certain point in time. We bring you hard numbers,
the realities of manufacturing here in the United States, China,
entered the World Trade Organization two thousand and one. December

(07:47):
of two thousand and one, China entered the World Trade
Organization between two thousand and one and two thousand and
Now again, what happened in two thousand and eight, and
we had the Great Recession, financial issues, crash housing market.

(08:08):
During that period of time, the United States lost three
point four million manufacturing jobs, twenty percent of the seventeen
point two million jobs manufacturing jobs that they had at
the end of two thousand. During the recession, another two
point two million disappeared. Next fifteen years, we regained about

(08:31):
one fifth one fifth of that was which was lost
during that first decade of the twenty first century. This
is what they call the China Shock. This was the
China Shock, and it's it's real. It's real. Some people, well,

(08:53):
you know, get the debate is on and again. William
Galson had a really interesting piece today on this in
the Wall Street Journal, talking about maybe it's not China,
maybe it's technology. Manufacturing productivity increased significantly between two thousand
and one and twenty ten, but it also increased by
the same amount between nineteen ninety one and two thousand

(09:16):
and At that point in time, manufacturing jobs were going
up difference China. Some say, and again it's NAFTA. You're
going to go back to Ross purout. And again you
get these people within the Trump administration hammering Canada, hammering Mexico.

(09:37):
Talked about NAFTA and how that was the issue that
that took effect in nineteen ninety four January first, nineteen
ninety four. From nineteen ninety four to two thousand, manufacturing
jobs increased by three hundred thousand in the United States. Yeah,
NAFTA shifted some production away from the United States, but

(09:59):
it also contribut to a growth and manufacturing that more
than made up from the losses. Now none of that.
Factory workers wages went up between nineteen ninety four and
two thousand, quicker than inflation. So you're gonna blame NAFTA. No, No,

(10:21):
it doesn't make any sense while we're going after some
of these countries. Ridiculous quite frankly, and how it's being done. Actually,
it's been helpful to the United States not to mention
the fact. Again, Trump renegotiated NAFTA in his first term,
and he called it the fairest, most balanced and beneficial

(10:44):
trade agreement we have ever signed into law. That is
a Trump direct quote. Now, problems at manufacturing. Okay, our
output has stagnated. Also, activity hasn't kept up. And again,
this is some of the comments that I get from people. Wait,

(11:06):
you know it's a national security concern. We got these issues. Okay, Okay,
you want to reshure some things. Yes, you know we
learned that we're dependent upon other countries. That We've learned
a lot during that COVID China for drugs, medical supplies.
We can't keep pace with the shipbuilding that's taking place

(11:27):
in China. This is but again I haven't argued against
any of these points at all. They're all legitimate points. However,
this involves not a sledge hammer, not an accent, a

(11:51):
sledge hammer or a chainsaw. You need a scalpel here.
A scalpel is necessary that you need targeted policies. You
think a global trade war is an appropriate tool? We
got to destroy trade and order to save it. No, No,

(12:13):
what did China do? What did China do? Yeah? They
suppress purchasing power. Again, they subsidized exports, allowing China to
undercut intellectual property theft, all of these things. We've known

(12:35):
this for some time. Isn't there a better way of
handling that. You want to direct tariffs on items where
China does this, turn around and use those tariffs to
I don't know, rebuild shipbuilding here in the United States.
That would be beneficial. Again another thing as well, making

(12:56):
America a much more attractive place to do for doing business.
It's just that simple, because we're going to continue to
see again, you're not going to hear about these things.
I do, okay. I hear about small businesses that are
going under. I hear about small companies that are going under.

(13:18):
One sent to me today. You know an Ohio paper
mill that was in business since eighteen seventeen, two hundred
and eight years, closing down. They can't deal with these tariffs.
They can't deal with these tariffs. And again, we self
inflict a lot of things as well. I remember I
told this story a long time ago on the program.

(13:43):
I had to do with a ladder company, a ladder
company in water of Elite, New York, not far where
I grew up from, that had been there for some
some revolutionary war times. The reason why they shut down
is they couldn't pay the insurance cost. They were small,
specialized ladder manufacturer. They just didn't put out enough product

(14:09):
in order to pay the insurance on ladders because guess what,
tour attorneys would sue them every time a moron decided
to put up Christmas lights half drunk and fell down,
it was a ladder's fault. We do a lot of
self inflicted dumb things here in this country. We do
it to ourselves, and these are some of the things

(14:32):
that we need to get out of the way. Other
solutions as well. It's a nice piece of National Review
talking about and again it's just a working class guy.
So basically every job he's had has been an hourly job,
and his wife in his entire life, and he's talking

(14:52):
about the working class and how many of the free
traders are talking past the working class. I try not.
I'm not talking past the working class at all. I'm not.
But for some time we need to change our ways
in the sense of, you know, people like nice things,

(15:15):
people like handmade, artisan type goods. They do get up.
It's an anecdotal example. Anecdotal example. It was race, Like
I said, I told you it was. It was in
Italy recently and I was looking at a you know,

(15:36):
furniture I was went into a furniture store there and
we have you know, we have high end you know
what called you want to call them high end for
you maybe restoration hardware our house, there's different levels. Okay,
obviously these are much higher than a Kia. I get
that you get in our house. Some of the things

(15:56):
are made here in the United States, but a lot
now it's outsourced to Chin a restoration hardware. Now, I
just bought some stuff from my house, and I know
where it's coming from, even though I tried to source
here in the United States, very hard to find, very
hard to find Italy. Not only is the equality far superior,

(16:19):
but it's cheaper, cheaper there and making it there, not
tariffs here to the United States, not cheaper. People like
these things. And again it's been a problem that we've
had here in this country, feeding the education, the college
industrial complex, telling every kid out there that they've got

(16:41):
to go to a four year degree rather than teaching
them various different trades make a fortune, and these various
different businesses. This is why you don't talk past the
working class. You've got to go sell that there's got
to be a change, And unfortunately, I think a lot
of the unions again trying to hold on to the

(17:02):
power and trying to basically stop time for the realities
of certain industries didn't do right by their workers. I mean,
jobs have come and gone. I was thinking about it today,
various different industries. Whereas I pulled up the I pulled

(17:23):
up the lyrics to Alanown by Billy Joel, you know,
talking about Bethlehem Steel and the things that took place
in Allentown. He wrote that song that was on the
Billy Joel's Nylon Curtain album that was in nineteen eighty two.

(17:46):
Nineteen eighty two, he was singing the you know, the
woes of you know, the steel industry in Pennsylvania. Now
you go forward another you know nineteen ninety two, another
great song by one of my favorite Cruner's there. It's
you know shut ah feel no pain. Mama been laid off,
Papa Ben laid off, been laid off for more than

(18:08):
two years. Now, all of these things. This is this
is how you go about dealing with creating jobs here
in the United States. It's being able to retrain people
and get them into the workforce that we're going to
need down the road. We do not need to blow
up world trade and in the process, blow up small

(18:34):
business across the country. It's not necessary, I get you
know again, it's amazing. I must be really getting overly
emotional in some of these podcasts because people are noticing
the messages that I'm getting from people around the country.

(18:56):
The thing like shut a song, feel no pain. I do.
That's the thing. And I've got small business clients. I
do feel their pain and what they're going through, and
so should you. A journal today had an editorial. They
were talking about various different artisan chocolate shops here in

(19:20):
the United States. Already the price of you know, coca,
their input costs went up because there was issues with
bad weather and various different places where they source the
chocolate from or the coca to make the chocolate from.
And as it turns out, there's only a couple of
places here in the United States you can get it from,

(19:42):
and that's Puerto Rico and Hawaii, and they can't suffice
to this. Now their costs have gone through the roof.
You know, it was starting to come down. Some of
the weather related issues had the prices going down, but
now tariffs have made it much worse, and they're Squeeze,
squeez squeeze. How much can you charge for a chocolate bar?
How much can you charge? You can only pass so

(20:05):
much on And that's where we're at, and you can
take this. This is not about Wall Street and the
volatile We're going to continue to see volatility in the
markets that I doubt me, but it'll eventually subside, it'll

(20:26):
eventually go away. What I'm worried about, there's all the
people living in the village that we need to destroy
in order to save, right, because that's what we're doing.
That's what's taking place. All of these jobs are not

(20:47):
going to reshore. And you know, people say, well, did
you hear that Honda's going to bring some plants back
here to the United It's all well and good, and
that's fine, and that's wonderful. Okay, that's wonderful, but you
are not hearing about all of the businesses, the small
businesses that are getting wiped out, and that should be

(21:13):
our concerned. You want to deal with China, okay, deal
with China. Why the hell, Why the hell do you
have to piss off the entire world? Why the hell
do you have to continue to spew on adult orated bullshit. Well,

(21:35):
the European Union was designed to screw the United States.
Come on, man, No it wasn't. Okay, no, it wasn't.
Do a little homework on the formation of the EU
and how it got started with the coal and steel
community post World War Two? Would you like me to?
Would you get explain it to you Donald? But no,

(21:56):
he didn't want to hear it because he likes to
live in his own little reality that fits his narratives.
God willing, God willing. He is going to get enough
pressure from powers that be that he is going to
recognize that we need friends in this, we need allies

(22:23):
in this. For crying out loud, China crafted a virus
in a laboratory that killed millions of people globally recently,
not too long ago, not too long ago, I don't know,
you know, might have that use that playing card and

(22:43):
trying to craft various different trade deals with various different
countries from around the globe, just saying that might help.
There might be a much better way than again destroying
trade in order to save it. Dog on Wall Street
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