April 25, 2025 • 22 mins
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Chris compares the chaotic state of U.S. trade policy to a disjointed Federico Fellini film, highlighting the confusion and improvisation he sees coming from the Trump administration’s handling of tariffs and trade wars. Markowski critiques Trump's inaccurate historical claims about tariffs and the Great Depression, explains how China's economy is straining under the pressure, and gives a historical overview of how trade wars contributed to World War II. He warns that abrupt tariffs destabilize businesses, spook consumers, and fail to solve long-standing problems. Amidst the uncertainty, Markowski calls for a smarter, more strategic approach to trade, rather than reactive chaos. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com
Apple Podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i
Watch on: https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured
Chris compares the chaotic state of U.S. trade policy to a disjointed Federico Fellini film, highlighting the confusion and improvisation he sees coming from the Trump administration’s handling of tariffs and trade wars. Markowski critiques Trump's inaccurate historical claims about tariffs and the Great Depression, explains how China's economy is straining under the pressure, and gives a historical overview of how trade wars contributed to World War II. He warns that abrupt tariffs destabilize businesses, spook consumers, and fail to solve long-standing problems. Amidst the uncertainty, Markowski calls for a smarter, more strategic approach to trade, rather than reactive chaos. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact that we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst and trader Chris Markowski.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Trade Wars, and Fellini films. Let me tell you something,
this has been one of the more difficult things that
I've had to cover on air in twenty five years
of doing radio shows and podcasts, is covering what's taken
place right now every day I sit here. I got
to come up with a title for the podcast. I
(00:37):
get all of these various different things. How do I
put this together and try to explain it to people
in a kocient manner, And hopefully I'm doing a pretty
good job. However, I you know what, I'm going to
go the route of a Federico Fellini film. Now, when
I went to school in Italy, who's going to college
(00:59):
there a one day? One day they would they said, okay,
we're gonna bring the kids together, We're gonna show Italian films.
The building where our school was, there was a beautiful,
beautiful facility in Piazza seven Yearola in Florence and they
put out a screen and we sent out there and
they're showing us the film La dolce Vita. Now again,
(01:23):
I'm going to school in Italy. I when I was there,
I was studying the European Union, I was studying Italian politics.
Also took all these great art history classes. When I
was there. We did have a lot of kids there
that were into the arts, a lot of architecture students
as well. Anyway, they show us La dulce Vita, and
(01:45):
I'm like the guys like, you know, remember Tom Hanks
in Big I don't get it. I had no idea
what the hell I was watching here. It was like
different episodes happened at different times, stuff thrown together all
over the place. Again, the the art arty kids claimed
that they understood what they were watching, but whatever, I'm
not buying it. Anyway, we are going to start covering
(02:08):
trade like a Fellini film. We're just gonna go here,
there and everywhere. So let's start off. Let's start off
trade talks today here we're going to talk about well again,
I have to call Trump out on his his BS,
just like I call everybody else on his BS. You know,
Donald Trump needs to do he needs to Actually, I
(02:31):
don't know, pick up a book. I'm just saying he
might want to pick up a book. Again, he claims
that he doesn't read. But anyway, he came out and
he said that the Great Depression would have never happened
if we had tariffs in nineteen twenty nine. We did
(02:52):
have tariffs in nineteen twenty nine. What happened was once
we got into the Great Depression, they raised the tariffs.
That's the Smoot Holly Tariff Act. And currently our tariffs
are going to be higher than at that point in time.
Just to be clear again, when when Donald especially when
(03:15):
he starts riffing, when he starts riffing, he comes up
with things that are just again you know, I'm sorry,
they do insult your intelligence if you've read a book
or two, just saying so, let's let's talk about this.
We're going a different direction right now. Another episode of
(03:35):
our Fellini film, Our export orders disappeared. Chinese factories are
shutting down again. Yeah, the trade war is hitting them hard.
It's hitting them hard. It's hitting their factories hard. At
this point in time, they have they have certain input
(03:59):
items that they need to get from the United States,
ethane being one that they can't get hold of right now,
or it makes it impossible run to the fact because
it's too expensive. And this is where we're starting to
see some back channeling when it comes to the possibility
of lowering they're lowering tariffs on our goods that are
(04:21):
going over there. They know they have a problem. Okay,
first and foremost, I've been talking about this for some time.
The economy in China is they're not doing well. They're
not doing well. And again, you can take a look
at this by looking quite frankly, at they look at
(04:42):
the bond market, for crying out loud, their bonds are
trading at one percent at this point in time that
they've been trying to stimulate the economy. They know that
they have to continue to do business with us. But again,
this is part of the cultural thing that I've tried
to explain right here in essence, you know, in many respects,
(05:04):
in many respects, Donald Trump and xjion Ping are in
my opinion, almost out of the same mold to the
degree where they both need to save face. They both
need to save face. And this is again, this is
where they're getting right now. However, Xijon Ping, and we
(05:25):
all know this is in a position where again they
it's a command and control economy, they have social credit scores.
We saw what they did to their people during COVID,
and again it's a philosophy there where it's not about
individual rights that we have here in this country. It's
completely different, not about it. I mean again, if we
(05:50):
people need to starve, I mean that they've shown this
throughout well, not their entire history, but most of their
recent history, especially when it comes to Maw, we will
sacrifice you. And again I don't think they want that.
I think they're also playing, you know, the reality that
people in China can see what's happening around the rest
(06:11):
of the world too, and I'm sure they don't want to.
I mean, the Dizisionping knows that there's a point that
they can push where they can no longer push. So
do we want to get The question is again this
is about you need to win the trade war? Do
we want do we want to get to that point
(06:32):
in time? Which which brings me, you know, to a
bit again. I I'm want to do a little bit
of a history lesson here and some of the stuff
I'm going to talk about might be news to many
of you. Quite frankly, they don't teach this properly. Pick
up a pick up a Civics textbook, high school civics textbook,
(06:54):
and you know, take a look at what they teach
in regards to World War Two. They don't get into
some of the some of the most kids say, well,
world War two started because of you know, Hitler and
and you know the Nazis and invading here, there and everywhere. Well,
hold on a second, okay, we weren't involved. We did
(07:17):
not get involved in World War Two until Japan bombed
Pearl Harbor. Now, how did that occur? What happened there?
Trade war? Essentially between nineteen thirty seven nineteen forty one,
(07:40):
China and Japan. We're going at it. Japan has they
were very much in imperialistic power within Asia. We okay,
had fine relations with China at this point in time. Japan.
(08:05):
Japan invaded China, they invaded North East China. Japan was
looking to get involved in various different areas all throughout
Asia at that point in time. United States again, we
you know, it's politics. We you know, basically said, well,
(08:26):
you know, what are our real vital interests in China.
Is it worth going to war with Japan over China?
Not to mention the fact at that point in time
as well, China had internal divisions when it came to
obviously the communists versus the nationalists at that point in time,
(08:46):
So again, how is this going to work? They got
a civil war in essence going on within their country
to some degree, and they've also being invaded by Japan.
So we kind of took a step back. Prior to
nineteen thirty seven, we didn't do much to help China.
(09:07):
We didn't want to get into it with Japan, so
we started increasing we started increasing aid to China. Date
it was July seventh, nineteen thirty seven. This is when
Chinese and Japanese forces clashed on the Marco Polo Bridge
(09:29):
near Beijing, and that through China versus the full scale war.
At that point in time, we watched as Japanese forces
came down the coast basically took them into the capital
of Nanjing, and again opinion obviously swung in favor of
China at that point in time. Now tensions with Japan rose,
(09:54):
and the Japanese army bombed the usspan a as it
evacuated Americans citizens from Nanjing and it killed three people. Again,
we tried to de escalated. We wanted to avoid conflict,
and we accepted apology from Japan at that point in time,
and we basically had a truce until nineteen forty. Now,
(10:19):
in nineteen forty nineteen forty one, we formalized relations and
aid to China. We extended credits to the Chinese government
for the purchase of war supplies. As it began tightening restrictions,
we began to tight restrictions on Japan. Now we were
(10:40):
okay this trade. We were the main supplier of the oil, steel, iron,
and other commodities needed by the Japanese military. And again
they needed it because they were fight in China at
this point in time. In January nineteen forty, Japan broke
(11:00):
an existing treaty of commerce with the United States. Now
it didn't lead to an immediate embargo. It meant that
the Roosevelt administration could now restrict the flow of military
supplies into Japan and use this as leverage to force
Japan to halt its aggression in China. Now, after January
(11:25):
nineteen forty, United States combined the strategy of increasing aid
to China through larger credits and the lend lease program
with a gradual move towards embargo on the trade of
all militarily useful items with Japan. Now, Japan exacerbate made
the situation worse. The government at the time, the political
(11:51):
leaders in Japan, they kind of lost control of the military,
and what they tried to do is they wanted to
establish what was called the Greater East Asia Co Prosperity sphere.
Now August nineteen forty, they announced Japan's intentions to drive
(12:11):
Western imperialist nations from Asia. Now, this project led to
enhance Japan's economic and material well so that it would
not be dependent upon the West Okay for their supplies,
and they said it was going to also liberate the
people of Asia. What Japan did was basically launched a
(12:33):
campaign of conquest and rule. They did not intend to
pull their forces out of China. That's when that's when
Japan basically signed the Tree Party pat signed a deal
with WHO, Italy and Germany. This was on September twenty seventh,
(12:53):
nineteen forty, linking the conflicts in Europe and Asia. So
this essentially made China an ally against fascism. So nineteen
forty one, Japan signs a neutrality packed with the Soviet Union,
making it perfectly clear that they are going to be
(13:14):
moving on South East Asia. Now that's we had interests
in that area. Now, what was going on at that
time is Germany controlled France, the Vishi government and France.
France had a lot of property in South East Asia, okay,
(13:35):
and basically, you know now that Germany controlled France, France
said sure, sure, you can do whatever you want down there.
So basically we got upset with that and we basically
halted all negotiations with Japanese diplomats, full embargo on exports
(13:56):
to Japan, We froze all of Japanese ascid in US banks.
We sent supplies to China along the Burma Road again,
any of them to go back channel. Negotiations with Japan
were not working out. Again, we demanded that they withdraw
from China, and this Japan said, no, We're not going
(14:18):
to do that. Condition is completely unacceptable. So Japan came
to the conclusion was all said done, that they had
to act swiftly. And what they did was, you know,
we didn't think that they would attack the US territory,
and then again that's when we were stunned when they
bombed Pearl Harbor. Now again I would remind everybody the
(14:41):
United States military at that point in time was, Yeah,
it was smaller than I think it was Romania as
far as on the global scale is concerned, and that
that led us into World War two. This is talking about,
you know, how things can escalate quickly and trade wars. Again,
(15:03):
I've talked about understanding and you know, knowing one's adversary.
I'm going to call China our adversary and what they're
like and what they've done throughout history. And yeah, yeah,
the Zijinping has said that they want Taiwan at some
point and time, and again they've been saying that for
(15:24):
a very very long period of time. And I'm not
going to get into the history of Chiang Kai shek
and mouth say tongue and separating China and all that
good stuff. We'll live for that for another day. But
these are some of the issues that one needs to
think about when you are dealing with trade wars. That's
(15:44):
again another episode trying to get your arms around what's
going on in our little Fellini film that we've got
going on right here. Okay, I'm going to give my
take on what the administration is doing right now. There's
been plenty of people out there that continue to put
out the idea that all of the things that are
(16:05):
taking place are by design. I find that very very
hard to believe. I think we're in a bit of
an impropvisation mode. And why do I say this, Well, again,
we've already reported here on the program that the ninety
(16:26):
day pause was orchestrated because Scott sent weaseled his way
into the Oval office when Navarro was occupied somewhere else
and basically convinced the President to pull back. Member. President
comes out that day and the bond market's getting yippie,
remember that? Okay, tell me, tell me that Trump had
(16:48):
any desire to put a pause on tariffs for ninety days?
What was this three weeks ago? Now, again, one day
is leading into the next when it comes to all
of this, some of the statements that are being made.
Donald Trump, in an interview this past Tuesday with Time
magazine this information came out, said that now he's got
(17:09):
two hundred deals that have been negotiated already. Again, you know,
there's that movie from the nineteen eighties, say anything, I
guess they're going to say what they're going to say,
and yeah, you know, you're going to believe what you
want to believe. I think that we are again in
(17:30):
impropisation mode when it comes to this. You know, you
see various different statements sent and said, we're really close
to a deal with We said South Korea maybe early
next week, but then the South Korean said maybe July.
(17:51):
India again I learned. We learned today that basically Apple
is going to offshore out of China all of their
production of iPhones within the next eighteen months to India. Again,
I want to remind Howard Lutnik that Dannan moved the
production iPhones back to the United States. They're moving them
to India. But again, this has been happening for some time.
(18:14):
You know. Again, it was a bit of a lesson
that was learned during COVID and smart businesses understand that
we need to diversify our supply chains smart same way
you need to diversify your portfolio. You'd better be able
to deal with some sort of stop at some point
and time. Again, one day, one day, Trump talks up
(18:36):
free trade deals. The next day, tariffs as solutions for
America's every problem that we have. And if you, again
I've tried to be pretty clear on this, if you
actually think that tariffs are going to solve what ails us,
reminds me of my grandmother, the Polish side of my family.
(18:59):
She said, he always says it is it good for
what ails you? What ails you? Yeah, we have ailments,
but tariffs are not going to solve our problems by
any stretch of the imagination. I don't know. I don't
know what's going to happen next. I don't know what
he's going to say next. And this is again, this
(19:20):
is why every single you know, every single thing that's
that's done, you know, on a data debase, you're trying
to get your arms right. We're on a bit of
a hair trigger. And again I I'm paying attention to
his best I possibly can, and we're gonna come here
(19:41):
every day and try to make sense out of it.
But it's difficult. It's difficult. And again I'm gonna also
highlight as well. You know, many businesses here constantly hearing
it all the time. A lot of the people that
utilize Amazon right now as their their platform for selling
items that have put businesses together. Right now, the tariffs
(20:05):
that have been put into place make their businesses completely unsustainable.
Is that we were we're willing to sacrifice that? That's
that's the question. Yeah, that's the question. You know, we've
you know, the Trump Mans talks about dealing with pain.
(20:25):
Are you willing to sacrifice and put all of these
people out of business? Again, I go back to my point. Yes,
we've needed to deal with with China for a long
long time, but you don't. You don't deal with thirty
(20:46):
years of issues, thirty years of issues when it comes
to trade and them taking advantage of intellectual property and
quite frankly, not only politicians but also businesses in America
looking the other way. You don't deal with it with
the snap of a finger. And again, you want, in
(21:08):
my opinion, you're going to want to deal with this
with other countries that have also been taking advantage of
as well. We also one more point as well. Again,
we're in earning season and we're getting various different statements
from businesses. Many of the CEOs in the country are
(21:29):
warning same thing that constantly changing tariffs, they're spooking consumers
and making planning virtually impossible. Several companies considered raising prices.
Auto industry is begging right now to reconsider tariffs on
car parts. You do need to understand that some of
(21:51):
the parts that we need to import for certain cars,
basically the costs would make the car, they're not They're
not going to even be able to make the car anymore.
It's not gonna even be worth it. It's not it's
not sustainable, you know, Maney of these automakers are already
losing fifty to one hundred thousand dollars per car on EVS. Uh.
So again, we don't know what's gonna happen day to day.
(22:13):
I am going to continue. I have no other choice. People, Okay,
it's trying to make sense out of all of this nonsense.
So we're gonna do it. I guess I'm gonna do
it every day like this. We're gonna dig it like
it's some you know Fellini film, some you know Italian
film from nineteen sixty Watchdog on Wall Street dot Com
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact that we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst and trader Chris Markowski.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Trade Wars, and Fellini films. Let me tell you something,
this has been one of the more difficult things that
I've had to cover on air in twenty five years
of doing radio shows and podcasts, is covering what's taken
place right now every day I sit here. I got
to come up with a title for the podcast. I
(00:37):
get all of these various different things. How do I
put this together and try to explain it to people
in a kocient manner, And hopefully I'm doing a pretty
good job. However, I you know what, I'm going to
go the route of a Federico Fellini film. Now, when
I went to school in Italy, who's going to college
(00:59):
there a one day? One day they would they said, okay,
we're gonna bring the kids together, We're gonna show Italian films.
The building where our school was, there was a beautiful,
beautiful facility in Piazza seven Yearola in Florence and they
put out a screen and we sent out there and
they're showing us the film La dolce Vita. Now again,
(01:23):
I'm going to school in Italy. I when I was there,
I was studying the European Union, I was studying Italian politics.
Also took all these great art history classes. When I
was there. We did have a lot of kids there
that were into the arts, a lot of architecture students
as well. Anyway, they show us La dulce Vita, and
(01:45):
I'm like the guys like, you know, remember Tom Hanks
in Big I don't get it. I had no idea
what the hell I was watching here. It was like
different episodes happened at different times, stuff thrown together all
over the place. Again, the the art arty kids claimed
that they understood what they were watching, but whatever, I'm
not buying it. Anyway, we are going to start covering
(02:08):
trade like a Fellini film. We're just gonna go here,
there and everywhere. So let's start off. Let's start off
trade talks today here we're going to talk about well again,
I have to call Trump out on his his BS,
just like I call everybody else on his BS. You know,
Donald Trump needs to do he needs to Actually, I
(02:31):
don't know, pick up a book. I'm just saying he
might want to pick up a book. Again, he claims
that he doesn't read. But anyway, he came out and
he said that the Great Depression would have never happened
if we had tariffs in nineteen twenty nine. We did
(02:52):
have tariffs in nineteen twenty nine. What happened was once
we got into the Great Depression, they raised the tariffs.
That's the Smoot Holly Tariff Act. And currently our tariffs
are going to be higher than at that point in time.
Just to be clear again, when when Donald especially when
(03:15):
he starts riffing, when he starts riffing, he comes up
with things that are just again you know, I'm sorry,
they do insult your intelligence if you've read a book
or two, just saying so, let's let's talk about this.
We're going a different direction right now. Another episode of
(03:35):
our Fellini film, Our export orders disappeared. Chinese factories are
shutting down again. Yeah, the trade war is hitting them hard.
It's hitting them hard. It's hitting their factories hard. At
this point in time, they have they have certain input
(03:59):
items that they need to get from the United States,
ethane being one that they can't get hold of right now,
or it makes it impossible run to the fact because
it's too expensive. And this is where we're starting to
see some back channeling when it comes to the possibility
of lowering they're lowering tariffs on our goods that are
(04:21):
going over there. They know they have a problem. Okay,
first and foremost, I've been talking about this for some time.
The economy in China is they're not doing well. They're
not doing well. And again, you can take a look
at this by looking quite frankly, at they look at
(04:42):
the bond market, for crying out loud, their bonds are
trading at one percent at this point in time that
they've been trying to stimulate the economy. They know that
they have to continue to do business with us. But again,
this is part of the cultural thing that I've tried
to explain right here in essence, you know, in many respects,
(05:04):
in many respects, Donald Trump and xjion Ping are in
my opinion, almost out of the same mold to the
degree where they both need to save face. They both
need to save face. And this is again, this is
where they're getting right now. However, Xijon Ping, and we
(05:25):
all know this is in a position where again they
it's a command and control economy, they have social credit scores.
We saw what they did to their people during COVID,
and again it's a philosophy there where it's not about
individual rights that we have here in this country. It's
completely different, not about it. I mean again, if we
(05:50):
people need to starve, I mean that they've shown this
throughout well, not their entire history, but most of their
recent history, especially when it comes to Maw, we will
sacrifice you. And again I don't think they want that.
I think they're also playing, you know, the reality that
people in China can see what's happening around the rest
(06:11):
of the world too, and I'm sure they don't want to.
I mean, the Dizisionping knows that there's a point that
they can push where they can no longer push. So
do we want to get The question is again this
is about you need to win the trade war? Do
we want do we want to get to that point
(06:32):
in time? Which which brings me, you know, to a
bit again. I I'm want to do a little bit
of a history lesson here and some of the stuff
I'm going to talk about might be news to many
of you. Quite frankly, they don't teach this properly. Pick
up a pick up a Civics textbook, high school civics textbook,
(06:54):
and you know, take a look at what they teach
in regards to World War Two. They don't get into
some of the some of the most kids say, well,
world War two started because of you know, Hitler and
and you know the Nazis and invading here, there and everywhere. Well,
hold on a second, okay, we weren't involved. We did
(07:17):
not get involved in World War Two until Japan bombed
Pearl Harbor. Now, how did that occur? What happened there?
Trade war? Essentially between nineteen thirty seven nineteen forty one,
(07:40):
China and Japan. We're going at it. Japan has they
were very much in imperialistic power within Asia. We okay,
had fine relations with China at this point in time. Japan.
(08:05):
Japan invaded China, they invaded North East China. Japan was
looking to get involved in various different areas all throughout
Asia at that point in time. United States again, we
you know, it's politics. We you know, basically said, well,
(08:26):
you know, what are our real vital interests in China.
Is it worth going to war with Japan over China?
Not to mention the fact at that point in time
as well, China had internal divisions when it came to
obviously the communists versus the nationalists at that point in time,
(08:46):
So again, how is this going to work? They got
a civil war in essence going on within their country
to some degree, and they've also being invaded by Japan.
So we kind of took a step back. Prior to
nineteen thirty seven, we didn't do much to help China.
(09:07):
We didn't want to get into it with Japan, so
we started increasing we started increasing aid to China. Date
it was July seventh, nineteen thirty seven. This is when
Chinese and Japanese forces clashed on the Marco Polo Bridge
(09:29):
near Beijing, and that through China versus the full scale war.
At that point in time, we watched as Japanese forces
came down the coast basically took them into the capital
of Nanjing, and again opinion obviously swung in favor of
China at that point in time. Now tensions with Japan rose,
(09:54):
and the Japanese army bombed the usspan a as it
evacuated Americans citizens from Nanjing and it killed three people. Again,
we tried to de escalated. We wanted to avoid conflict,
and we accepted apology from Japan at that point in time,
and we basically had a truce until nineteen forty. Now,
(10:19):
in nineteen forty nineteen forty one, we formalized relations and
aid to China. We extended credits to the Chinese government
for the purchase of war supplies. As it began tightening restrictions,
we began to tight restrictions on Japan. Now we were
(10:40):
okay this trade. We were the main supplier of the oil, steel, iron,
and other commodities needed by the Japanese military. And again
they needed it because they were fight in China at
this point in time. In January nineteen forty, Japan broke
(11:00):
an existing treaty of commerce with the United States. Now
it didn't lead to an immediate embargo. It meant that
the Roosevelt administration could now restrict the flow of military
supplies into Japan and use this as leverage to force
Japan to halt its aggression in China. Now, after January
(11:25):
nineteen forty, United States combined the strategy of increasing aid
to China through larger credits and the lend lease program
with a gradual move towards embargo on the trade of
all militarily useful items with Japan. Now, Japan exacerbate made
the situation worse. The government at the time, the political
(11:51):
leaders in Japan, they kind of lost control of the military,
and what they tried to do is they wanted to
establish what was called the Greater East Asia Co Prosperity sphere.
Now August nineteen forty, they announced Japan's intentions to drive
(12:11):
Western imperialist nations from Asia. Now, this project led to
enhance Japan's economic and material well so that it would
not be dependent upon the West Okay for their supplies,
and they said it was going to also liberate the
people of Asia. What Japan did was basically launched a
(12:33):
campaign of conquest and rule. They did not intend to
pull their forces out of China. That's when that's when
Japan basically signed the Tree Party pat signed a deal
with WHO, Italy and Germany. This was on September twenty seventh,
(12:53):
nineteen forty, linking the conflicts in Europe and Asia. So
this essentially made China an ally against fascism. So nineteen
forty one, Japan signs a neutrality packed with the Soviet Union,
making it perfectly clear that they are going to be
(13:14):
moving on South East Asia. Now that's we had interests
in that area. Now, what was going on at that
time is Germany controlled France, the Vishi government and France.
France had a lot of property in South East Asia, okay,
(13:35):
and basically, you know now that Germany controlled France, France
said sure, sure, you can do whatever you want down there.
So basically we got upset with that and we basically
halted all negotiations with Japanese diplomats, full embargo on exports
(13:56):
to Japan, We froze all of Japanese ascid in US banks.
We sent supplies to China along the Burma Road again,
any of them to go back channel. Negotiations with Japan
were not working out. Again, we demanded that they withdraw
from China, and this Japan said, no, We're not going
(14:18):
to do that. Condition is completely unacceptable. So Japan came
to the conclusion was all said done, that they had
to act swiftly. And what they did was, you know,
we didn't think that they would attack the US territory,
and then again that's when we were stunned when they
bombed Pearl Harbor. Now again I would remind everybody the
(14:41):
United States military at that point in time was, Yeah,
it was smaller than I think it was Romania as
far as on the global scale is concerned, and that
that led us into World War two. This is talking about,
you know, how things can escalate quickly and trade wars. Again,
(15:03):
I've talked about understanding and you know, knowing one's adversary.
I'm going to call China our adversary and what they're
like and what they've done throughout history. And yeah, yeah,
the Zijinping has said that they want Taiwan at some
point and time, and again they've been saying that for
(15:24):
a very very long period of time. And I'm not
going to get into the history of Chiang Kai shek
and mouth say tongue and separating China and all that
good stuff. We'll live for that for another day. But
these are some of the issues that one needs to
think about when you are dealing with trade wars. That's
(15:44):
again another episode trying to get your arms around what's
going on in our little Fellini film that we've got
going on right here. Okay, I'm going to give my
take on what the administration is doing right now. There's
been plenty of people out there that continue to put
out the idea that all of the things that are
(16:05):
taking place are by design. I find that very very
hard to believe. I think we're in a bit of
an impropvisation mode. And why do I say this, Well, again,
we've already reported here on the program that the ninety
(16:26):
day pause was orchestrated because Scott sent weaseled his way
into the Oval office when Navarro was occupied somewhere else
and basically convinced the President to pull back. Member. President
comes out that day and the bond market's getting yippie,
remember that? Okay, tell me, tell me that Trump had
(16:48):
any desire to put a pause on tariffs for ninety days?
What was this three weeks ago? Now, again, one day
is leading into the next when it comes to all
of this, some of the statements that are being made.
Donald Trump, in an interview this past Tuesday with Time
magazine this information came out, said that now he's got
(17:09):
two hundred deals that have been negotiated already. Again, you know,
there's that movie from the nineteen eighties, say anything, I
guess they're going to say what they're going to say,
and yeah, you know, you're going to believe what you
want to believe. I think that we are again in
(17:30):
impropisation mode when it comes to this. You know, you
see various different statements sent and said, we're really close
to a deal with We said South Korea maybe early
next week, but then the South Korean said maybe July.
(17:51):
India again I learned. We learned today that basically Apple
is going to offshore out of China all of their
production of iPhones within the next eighteen months to India. Again,
I want to remind Howard Lutnik that Dannan moved the
production iPhones back to the United States. They're moving them
to India. But again, this has been happening for some time.
(18:14):
You know. Again, it was a bit of a lesson
that was learned during COVID and smart businesses understand that
we need to diversify our supply chains smart same way
you need to diversify your portfolio. You'd better be able
to deal with some sort of stop at some point
and time. Again, one day, one day, Trump talks up
(18:36):
free trade deals. The next day, tariffs as solutions for
America's every problem that we have. And if you, again
I've tried to be pretty clear on this, if you
actually think that tariffs are going to solve what ails us,
reminds me of my grandmother, the Polish side of my family.
(18:59):
She said, he always says it is it good for
what ails you? What ails you? Yeah, we have ailments,
but tariffs are not going to solve our problems by
any stretch of the imagination. I don't know. I don't
know what's going to happen next. I don't know what
he's going to say next. And this is again, this
(19:20):
is why every single you know, every single thing that's
that's done, you know, on a data debase, you're trying
to get your arms right. We're on a bit of
a hair trigger. And again I I'm paying attention to
his best I possibly can, and we're gonna come here
(19:41):
every day and try to make sense out of it.
But it's difficult. It's difficult. And again I'm gonna also
highlight as well. You know, many businesses here constantly hearing
it all the time. A lot of the people that
utilize Amazon right now as their their platform for selling
items that have put businesses together. Right now, the tariffs
(20:05):
that have been put into place make their businesses completely unsustainable.
Is that we were we're willing to sacrifice that? That's
that's the question. Yeah, that's the question. You know, we've
you know, the Trump Mans talks about dealing with pain.
(20:25):
Are you willing to sacrifice and put all of these
people out of business? Again, I go back to my point. Yes,
we've needed to deal with with China for a long
long time, but you don't. You don't deal with thirty
(20:46):
years of issues, thirty years of issues when it comes
to trade and them taking advantage of intellectual property and
quite frankly, not only politicians but also businesses in America
looking the other way. You don't deal with it with
the snap of a finger. And again, you want, in
(21:08):
my opinion, you're going to want to deal with this
with other countries that have also been taking advantage of
as well. We also one more point as well. Again,
we're in earning season and we're getting various different statements
from businesses. Many of the CEOs in the country are
(21:29):
warning same thing that constantly changing tariffs, they're spooking consumers
and making planning virtually impossible. Several companies considered raising prices.
Auto industry is begging right now to reconsider tariffs on
car parts. You do need to understand that some of
(21:51):
the parts that we need to import for certain cars,
basically the costs would make the car, they're not They're
not going to even be able to make the car anymore.
It's not gonna even be worth it. It's not it's
not sustainable, you know, Maney of these automakers are already
losing fifty to one hundred thousand dollars per car on EVS. Uh.
So again, we don't know what's gonna happen day to day.
(22:13):
I am going to continue. I have no other choice. People, Okay,
it's trying to make sense out of all of this nonsense.
So we're gonna do it. I guess I'm gonna do
it every day like this. We're gonna dig it like
it's some you know Fellini film, some you know Italian
film from nineteen sixty Watchdog on Wall Street dot Com
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