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Chris delivers a blunt economic reality check in this episode of Watchdog on Wall Street. With biting insight, he unpacks what he calls America's transformation into a full-fledged welfare state, analyzing the newest "big beautiful" spending bill championed by Donald Trump. Markowski breaks down the bill’s provisions, tax changes, and rising deficits, while exploring how both major parties have drifted toward big-government populism. From Medicaid expansion to ballooning federal outlays and failed spending cuts, this episode exposes the uncomfortable fiscal truths no one in D.C. wants to face. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i
WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:
https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured
Chris delivers a blunt economic reality check in this episode of Watchdog on Wall Street. With biting insight, he unpacks what he calls America's transformation into a full-fledged welfare state, analyzing the newest "big beautiful" spending bill championed by Donald Trump. Markowski breaks down the bill’s provisions, tax changes, and rising deficits, while exploring how both major parties have drifted toward big-government populism. From Medicaid expansion to ballooning federal outlays and failed spending cuts, this episode exposes the uncomfortable fiscal truths no one in D.C. wants to face. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact that we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Our big fat welfare state. You thought I was going
to say, big beautiful bill, didn't you. No, Well, well
we're going to talk about that big beautiful bill. I
often talk about, you know, just kind of understanding reality.
(00:37):
You have to deal with reality. You might not like it,
you have to deal with it. I talk about the
terrain and actually dealing with the terrain at hand, and
I guess I've just I've kind of come to grips
with the fact I've been thinking about it a lot
that we are a welfare state. Last week I talked
(00:58):
about some of Donald Trump socialist tendencies and hopefully he
gets away from them, because again, socialist tendencies are not
going to bode well for economic growth that we're going
to need to have to fuel our welfare state. I've
lamented against the welfare state for a long time, written
(01:22):
columns about it, one entitled drug Pusher, using all sorts
of data from the Cato Institute, going back to all
of the Lyndon Johnson's Great Society programs and what it's
done to society and none of it good. Actually basically
equating a lot of those welfare programs to drug use,
(01:46):
same type of societal pathologies. You want the issues that
society has with drugs, it's the same thing with welfare
as well. Another one I wrote, it's entitled My big
fat Greek Epiphany. You know, it's at the Greek National Museum,
having a conversation my wife's cousin and just kind of
(02:09):
recognizing that, you know, where we were headed as a country,
and this is back in the Obama years. We're at
the point right now and I'm sorry again, this is
kind of an epiphany, another big fat Markowski epiphany, that
we are we are a well fair state. We are
going the way of Europe, We're going the way of Scandinavia,
(02:34):
and there's just no way around it at this point time.
This big beautiful bill, they released it, three hundred and
eighty nine pages. Again it's Trump is telling everybody out there,
urging all the lawmakers to get behind this bill. We
(02:56):
must win. We're going to do all these great things
a big, beautiful bill just got much bigger and better.
Golden Age of America is going to be upon us.
Now you can kind of decide what the golden age
means to you. I think that again, we've gotten to
the point where, yeah, I think that I think the
(03:21):
majority of Americans want a welfare state. And I think
Trump understands this. He is a populist. Again, we could
take a look at what's in this bill. They're going
to be raising some money the same most certainly some
things that I like five percent remittance tax on international
(03:42):
money transfers. They're going to try to use that money
to help fund border security. Getting rid of a lot
of the clean energy tax credits. I don't have any
problem with that. This income tax deduction for qualified tips
over time compensation that only lasts until twenty twenty eight.
(04:05):
It does exclude high earners, service sector owners, and non
traditional tipping industries. Looking to get rid of loopholes their Okay,
he ran on that twenty seventeen Trump tax law, including
the higher estate and give tax exemptions going to stay
the same. The salt tax deduction is going to change
(04:27):
according to this. But again, you've got a lot of
Republicans that are very much going to push back Blue
state Republicans. Modifying that to thirty thousand dollars if that's
for couples, raises the debt limit by four trillion dollars
(04:49):
for trillion dollars. The House bill does not have the
new millionaire tax bracket, but I'm thinking that that's eventually
going to be added to this. I do. I think
it's going to be added. I think they'll add that.
I think they'll raise the salt tax deduction, other little
(05:12):
things here in there, you know, some things to help
businesses out, increases the qualified business income tax, and some
other tidbits. And they have this new idea, and I
happened to like this idea. It was my suggestion a
long time ago is better than a baby bonus. In
essence it is, it's a new account for babies born
(05:37):
here in the United States. Government's going to put one
thousand dollars into an S and P five hundred fund. Again,
you're getting people involved in the economy, maybe teaching them
about money. They're going to hash that out. We'll see
what happens with that moving forward. The reality is the
reality is that they really are not doing much to
(05:57):
cut anything at all. Again, another four trillion dollar increase
in the debt ceiling. Ron Johnson put some numbers out today.
I want you to get your arms around this, and
fiscal twenty nineteen, federal outlays total four point four five
trillion dollars. That's twenty point six percent of gross domestic product.
(06:22):
According to CBO January twenty twenty five projection, total outlays
will be seven point zero three trillion, twenty three point
three percent of GDP. That's a fifty eight percent increase
over six years. The CBO projects federal outlays will be
(06:45):
eighty nine point three trillion across fiscal twenty six to
fiscal thirty five. Wow. Yeah, yeah, I understand pandemic spending,
but the pandemic is over, and quite frankly, that's a lie.
I didn't really understand pandemic spending. I railed against all
of the pandemic spending. Congress can't even find a way
(07:08):
to reduce one point five trillion over ten years. That's
a one point six eight percent cut. They can't even
find the money to do that. They're increasing everything, Johnson Wright.
(07:28):
Since nineteen forty eight, government has steadily grown, and spending
as a percentage of GDP has more than doubled. Again,
nothing the founders had. This wasn't what they had envisioned
at all, by any stretch the imagination. In nineteen thirty,
prior to the new deal, federal outlays with three point
(07:50):
five percent of GDP, well, state and local expenditures were
nine point one. That was basically a foundational premise. I've
basically talked about, you know, the tenth Amendment and the
need to make the Tenth Amendment great again, limiting federal
government power to local communities and states. But now now
(08:10):
we don't have that anymore, and quite frankly, I don't
think we'll ever get it back. I'm being honest at
this point and time, I just don't think it's going
to happen. It's going to happen. Should we be able
to get back to pre pandemic spending, Yeah, I don't
(08:34):
think that's that impossible to do, but it's not. Again,
you take a look, you take a look at the
increases and outlays for the Pentagon and Defense. I've talked
about this here on the program, and obviously the ten
thousand pound guerrillas in the room that we continue to
(08:55):
fail to deal with, and that's Medicare, Medicaid, and social
So we missed the opportunity to reform social security under
George W. Bush's second term. Didn't do it again. We're
wasting too much time and political capital on Iraq at
(09:16):
that point in time, So nothing got done. This Medicare
Medicare thing is it's amazing to me. Again, I don't
have any problem at all, and I've talked about this.
I don't have any problem with social safety nets, but
it used to be a bit of a tenant of
(09:38):
the Republican Party, and honestly, I've talked about here. I
think it's the right thing. Is you judge social welfare
programs based upon the ability to get people off social
welfare programs, not to keep them on forever, not to
make them multi generational, because that's what they become, they
(10:00):
become multi generational. Used to be you know, it's going
all the way back to Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton and
New Gingridge contract with America used to be a part
of you want to call it the Republican orthodoxy would
be to people receiving government benefits should also have to work.
(10:23):
Novel concept. The bill that they put forward required that
able bodied adults on Medicaid without dependence work roughly twenty
hours a week and actually school and volunteering count. Okay,
(10:45):
they put that in, but you know what's funny, it
doesn't kick in until twenty twenty nine, which basically says
is that it's never going to kick in at all.
They will eliminate it. They're putting it. It's how pathetic
these Republicans are. They're putting it in there like they've
actually done something. They've done nothing. Twenty nine that's when
(11:12):
that kicks in. The bill also sets up a waiver process,
which states have long abuse to evade work rules in
food stamps. They improve on checks on Medicaid eligibility, including
rolling back by administration rules that prevent states from frequently
revisiting their roles. Again, novel concept benefits should go to
(11:36):
those qualify, but again, it doesn't end any sort of
bias whatsoever toward prime age men who can work. The
Feds pay ninety percent of the cost of able bodied
adults eligible for Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act Obamacare,
(11:59):
but only fifty to seventy seven percent depending on the
state for pregnant women, the blind, and so on. Again.
Ten states right now have not participated in this Obamacare
deal with Medicaid, but because of this, they're going to
(12:22):
face greater scrutiny to start taking the money. And this
well again they're not even factoring this in, but it's
estimated to cost an additional six hundred and seventy billion
dollars over ten years. So the big beautiful bill once
all these other states jump on, because again they're going
to take the Fed's money. You're going to put millions
(12:46):
of more able bodied adults on Medicaid. Republicans don't want
to be bothered. They don't want to be bothered. You know,
I've been watching this happen throughout my life, crying out
loud and most certainly has gone parabolic since the Obama years,
(13:10):
without a doubt, without doubt, even during COVID, even during COVID,
all these you know so called you know, flag waving
you know Trump support conservatives. Oh yeah, it would be email.
They would go on radio shows wanting their wanting their
free money, wanting their checks. Give me, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme.
(13:32):
This is Josh Holly, Okay, Josh holly Man calls himself
a Republican from Missouri talking about how Republicans. He said,
the Democrats are in trouble, but Republicans are having an
identity crisis of our own, and he can see it.
(13:53):
And President Trump's one big, beautiful bill. Will Republicans be
a majority party of working people or permanent minority speaking
only for the c suite? Again, this is Bernie Sanders.
I mean, Bernie Sanders could have written Josh Hawley's editorial
(14:15):
in the New York Times. Yeah, yeah, Republicans are hot
or just for rich people, just for the c suite. No, Josh,
it's actually not about that. And again I've talked about
you know, you truly want to help people. You don't
just continually hand them out things. You have a process
(14:36):
where you're actually looking to get them to improve on
their lives. He says. Mister Trump has promised working class
tax cuts and protection for working class social insurance such
as Medicaid, But now a noisy contingent of corporatist Republicans
call at the party's Wall Street wing. Again, this is
you know, aoch could have wrote this. This guy's Republican
(15:01):
AA could have wrote this, Bernie could have wrote this
urging Congress to ignore all that and get back to
the old time religion, corporate giveaways, preferences for capital, and
deep cuts to social insurance. The wing of the party
wants Republicans to build our big, beautiful bill around slashing
health insurance for the working poor. But that argument is
(15:25):
both morally wrong and politically suicidal. Again, he talks about
the fact that medicaid serves seventy million Americans, over one
million in the state of Missouri where he represents, and
you know again gives a couple anecdotal things here and
constituents that are getting it, and again the constituents that
you're getting that are getting it quite frankly, they wouldn't
(15:47):
lose it based upon the cuts that they want to make. Here,
he basically says that Donald Trump. Donald Trump says, we're
doing absolutely nothing to hurt Medicare, Medicaid or Social Security,
nothing at all, And for good reason. The President understands
who his voters are. This is recent polling. Again, I'm
(16:09):
going to take his word on this. Sixty four percent
of Republicans hold a favorable view of medicaid. About one
in six have personally been on the program. Eighty percent
of Americans oppose significant cuts to Medicaid, and over half
have a personal or family connection to the Medicaid program.
He's talking about the Trump Coalition not pulling the lever
(16:33):
for Medicaid cuts. Mike Johnson just woke up to this
when he withdrew his support for one of the most
aggressive reductions to Medicaid on the table again. He says,
Republicans need to open their eyes. Our voters support social
insurance programs more than that. Our voters depend on those programs.
(16:53):
And there's a reason for that. This that Republicans will
do well to ponder. Our economy is increasingly unfre to
working people and their families. For the better part of
fifty years, working wages have been flat, and real terms,
working people cannot afford to get married when they want
to have the number of children they want to, or
raise those children as they would like. These days, they
(17:14):
can barely afford to put a roof over their kids' heads,
to say nothing of healthcare. And you know they say pieces.
Both Democrats and Republicans share the blame for this. So
I guess we're going to keep doing what we're doing, right.
Josh We're going to keep the government, the size of
government growing out of control, keep spending on things that
(17:35):
we can't afford, not reducing budget deficits, not growing the
economy like we could be doing, and just going to
hand out welfare. I guess that's the solution. That is,
that's where we're at at this point in time. And
(17:55):
it's makes me sad, It really does. It makes me sad.
You know. The funny thing is is the saying people
that are, you know, applauding these tariffs and talking about
the wonders of these tariffs that we've gone off on,
and the reality of the situation is, Josh, do you
(18:21):
do you think these tariffs are going to bother me?
I got to pay a little bit more for something now. No,
is it going to hit the working class? Yes? It
was interesting. It was interesting. Yeah. And what's his name there? Uh,
(18:43):
from the CNBC show. I'll think of his name. I
can't believe this, mister wonderful they call him. He's the
Canadian guy there. He's on CNN a lot too. And
he basically said, he said, where we're going this is
for tariffs is a ten and ten reciprocal on everybody
call it a VA consumption tax in America, but you
(19:07):
can't sell it to Congress, so you call it a tariff.
Oh yeah, O'Leary's forgot about name there. We have no choice,
we have we really don't have much of a choice.
Now we decided we're going to be this big welfare state.
(19:29):
We already know that they're gonna have to do something
when it comes to Social Security because that's automatically going
to be cut in a very short period of time.
You know, my point when it came to raising taxes,
and I don't think it was unreasonable, is that you know,
I don't want to raise the debt ceiling. I don't
want to run deficits. You need to balance the budget.
(19:52):
To balance the budget, then come and then raise people's taxes.
But again we see this everywhere. We're all in a
perpetual state of pain. Taxes for crying a lot. It
wasn't that long ago they finally repealed uh the uh
there was a Spanish American war tax that you were
paying on your on your cell phone bill. They embed
taxes and everything, they call them syntax. They got all
(20:14):
these different things, and again this UH ten tariff is
tax you're not going to see it, but you're gonna
pay it. You're gonna pay it. I mean, if somebody's
gonna have to pay for all of this, you see
these stories, and again this is this is the choice.
(20:35):
I listen. I'm obviously in the minority. Maas we run
a uh we want a you know, a republic here,
and I'm obviously in the camp where I'm a minority.
I you know, I kind of wish back for the
you know, the free market days Reagan Year's uh personal responsibility.
(20:58):
I've always kind of believed and that my entire life.
The American people don't. It's again I am I'm in
the minority here. I mentioned Omega Man yesterday. I'm to
realize just how I guess, how maybe how out of
touch I am with the rest of society at this point.
(21:19):
And most certainly the MAGA camp. Most certainly the MAGA
camp is all in on populism. They're all in on
big government, They're all in on handouts and giveaways and
tinkering in a myriad of different things. I'm going to
tie this story in. Then I grabbed today we're living
(21:39):
in two separate economies. Why young Americans feel stuck financially,
For many millennials and gen Zers, financial security remains out
of reach, even as their net worths grow on paper well,
looking in two separate economies. This is an economics content creator.
I don't even know what that is. UH talks about
the different financial realities between generations. The middle class, unfortunately,
(22:03):
is dead for millennials and gen zs our best case scenario.
The goalposts had just moved and it's still obtainable. But
you have to make over six figures to have that
middical class life again. They got people saying might make
enough to pay for basic living expenses and cover bills,
but if one thing happens and they can get behind again.
(22:23):
This is nothing new. I was gen xer, I went
through this. We all go through this. Meanwhile, costs keep
rising hiusing healthcare insurance have become more expensive. Americans now
bear more responsibility for funding their retirement. Listen, listen, you
(22:45):
keep looking to Washington, you keep looking for handouts and
giveaways and aid. And yes, it inflates the cost of everything.
That's just the reality. I'm here to tell the younger
generations again, behind this. You want this the welfare? I mean,
(23:07):
you can go to welfare states. You can go to
Europe and go to Europe, go to Scandiama. Again. Scandava
is a bad example to some degree because it's a
little bit insular and obviously population is a little bit smaller, more,
much more communal than the United States. It's different different. No,
(23:28):
you know, we're not you know, we're not going to
have people are not going to have more kids. Okay,
the population is going to continue to drop here in
the United States. That's just the reality. Unless you have immigration.
It's not It's come very very expensive to have children.
You're going to see lifestyle change. You're going to see
more kids after college, after getting educated, staying at home
(23:50):
with mom and dad for a longer period of time.
This is what happened. This is how it is. This
is how it is in Europe. I am most kids,
you know that they're going to school if they can
get into school. They're like, oh, school's free there. No,
school's free there if you get in. Not everybody gets
to go to college over there. You do. Guess what
(24:12):
you're done. You're going to move back in with mom
and dad. You're not even you're not saying dorms, forget
about that. You're living with mom and dad. You might
move out. You might move out after you get married,
but even then, you know you're probably going to stay
at home with mom and dad. Cost of living very
(24:34):
very high. You're not making as much money. Again, a
lot of welfare, lots of safety nets, lots of handouts,
lots of giveaway I get all that, but it's going
to be a real change for the way we are
(24:54):
going to live here in this country. People are going
to have to get used to it. They're gonna have
you because you can't have it all people. Again, we're
thirty six trillion dollars in debt as a nation, and
again we've been we've been living off the you know,
(25:16):
the fact that other countries have continued to buy our debt.
You take a look at, you know, the little money
that was printed during COVID for all of the handouts
and giveaways and cash that caused all of this inflation.
I mean, they're talking about the inflation numbers that came
out today and they weren't so bad. But let me
(25:39):
ask you a question. Has anything gone down in price? Oh? Yeah,
they'll talk about a couple of housing markets here and there.
No nothing overall again, costs of education, cost of insurance.
I can't even believe what I pay for car insurance.
It's hard to get my arms around what I pay
(26:01):
in car insurance with no tickets, no nothing, nothing. This
this is where we're at. You know, you talk about
this big, beautiful bill. We are a we have become
a big, to me, in my opinion, not so beautiful
(26:23):
welfare state. And that's the terrain. That that is the terrain.
And again you we're starting to recog We're starting to
recognize it. In college enrollment. Kids are starting to wisen
up and say, I can't go get myself into debt.
(26:46):
I can't, I can't go. You know, unless you gotta
go to college, you better have a reason for going
to school. You better be able to acquire a skill
that's going to be able to get you a job.
You better do a cost benefit analysis before you go
to school. The terrain has changed. Terrain has changed. There
(27:13):
used to be and not what Josh Hawley said, Republicans
just sticking up for that, the c suite Wall Street wing. No,
it used to be the party of personal responsibility, reliance
upon oneself, making your way in the world. Not that
that's not doable.
Speaker 1 (27:35):
It is.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
It is. The issue is is that human beings, unfortunately,
fortunately like animals, can be conditioned. And once you start
conditioning people that I don't have to do it. Government
will help me out. I get this hand out, I
can get this. You can make people lazy. You can again,
(28:03):
I talk about that again. Go my column Drug Pusher.
It's available on the Watchdog on Wall Street site shows
this demonstrates this and what has happened over the years.
But again, I'm in the minority. I'm in the minority.
(28:24):
You know, we have to be behind socialism. But again
I like to remind everybody, Okay, the tinkering around, the
tinkering around with the you know, the socialism out there
that this administration's trying to do. Picking doll how many
dollars people can have? Tell all this stuff that has
to go away, that has to go away, because you
(28:44):
you most certainly, you most certainly are going to need
people to go out there and continue to build and create,
protect and teach to fund this welfare state. And I
have already basically come to grips the fact that my
taxes are going to be going way up. Your taxes
(29:07):
are going to be going way up because it's just
not sustainable. Where we're at is just not sustainable. We
cannot continue to grow the welfare state, grow the size
of the military, and keep taxes where they are. Don't
(29:28):
have people willing to make cuts in Washington, DC, Like
I said, they can't even find one point five trillion
dollars and cuts over ten years and expenditures that outlays
that what it would I say, over eighty six trillion dollars.
Not happy about it, not happy about it. But you
(29:48):
know again I'm said it before. I'm not Mary Poppins.
There's no spoonful of sugar to make the medicine go down.
This is the reality of the terrain watch Dog on
wall stree dot com
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact that we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Our big fat welfare state. You thought I was going
to say, big beautiful bill, didn't you. No, Well, well
we're going to talk about that big beautiful bill. I
often talk about, you know, just kind of understanding reality.
(00:37):
You have to deal with reality. You might not like it,
you have to deal with it. I talk about the
terrain and actually dealing with the terrain at hand, and
I guess I've just I've kind of come to grips
with the fact I've been thinking about it a lot
that we are a welfare state. Last week I talked
(00:58):
about some of Donald Trump socialist tendencies and hopefully he
gets away from them, because again, socialist tendencies are not
going to bode well for economic growth that we're going
to need to have to fuel our welfare state. I've
lamented against the welfare state for a long time, written
(01:22):
columns about it, one entitled drug Pusher, using all sorts
of data from the Cato Institute, going back to all
of the Lyndon Johnson's Great Society programs and what it's
done to society and none of it good. Actually basically
equating a lot of those welfare programs to drug use,
(01:46):
same type of societal pathologies. You want the issues that
society has with drugs, it's the same thing with welfare
as well. Another one I wrote, it's entitled My big
fat Greek Epiphany. You know, it's at the Greek National Museum,
having a conversation my wife's cousin and just kind of
(02:09):
recognizing that, you know, where we were headed as a country,
and this is back in the Obama years. We're at
the point right now and I'm sorry again, this is
kind of an epiphany, another big fat Markowski epiphany, that
we are we are a well fair state. We are
going the way of Europe, We're going the way of Scandinavia,
(02:34):
and there's just no way around it at this point time.
This big beautiful bill, they released it, three hundred and
eighty nine pages. Again it's Trump is telling everybody out there,
urging all the lawmakers to get behind this bill. We
(02:56):
must win. We're going to do all these great things
a big, beautiful bill just got much bigger and better.
Golden Age of America is going to be upon us.
Now you can kind of decide what the golden age
means to you. I think that again, we've gotten to
the point where, yeah, I think that I think the
(03:21):
majority of Americans want a welfare state. And I think
Trump understands this. He is a populist. Again, we could
take a look at what's in this bill. They're going
to be raising some money the same most certainly some
things that I like five percent remittance tax on international
(03:42):
money transfers. They're going to try to use that money
to help fund border security. Getting rid of a lot
of the clean energy tax credits. I don't have any
problem with that. This income tax deduction for qualified tips
over time compensation that only lasts until twenty twenty eight.
(04:05):
It does exclude high earners, service sector owners, and non
traditional tipping industries. Looking to get rid of loopholes their Okay,
he ran on that twenty seventeen Trump tax law, including
the higher estate and give tax exemptions going to stay
the same. The salt tax deduction is going to change
(04:27):
according to this. But again, you've got a lot of
Republicans that are very much going to push back Blue
state Republicans. Modifying that to thirty thousand dollars if that's
for couples, raises the debt limit by four trillion dollars
(04:49):
for trillion dollars. The House bill does not have the
new millionaire tax bracket, but I'm thinking that that's eventually
going to be added to this. I do. I think
it's going to be added. I think they'll add that.
I think they'll raise the salt tax deduction, other little
(05:12):
things here in there, you know, some things to help
businesses out, increases the qualified business income tax, and some
other tidbits. And they have this new idea, and I
happened to like this idea. It was my suggestion a
long time ago is better than a baby bonus. In
essence it is, it's a new account for babies born
(05:37):
here in the United States. Government's going to put one
thousand dollars into an S and P five hundred fund. Again,
you're getting people involved in the economy, maybe teaching them
about money. They're going to hash that out. We'll see
what happens with that moving forward. The reality is the
reality is that they really are not doing much to
(05:57):
cut anything at all. Again, another four trillion dollar increase
in the debt ceiling. Ron Johnson put some numbers out today.
I want you to get your arms around this, and
fiscal twenty nineteen, federal outlays total four point four five
trillion dollars. That's twenty point six percent of gross domestic product.
(06:22):
According to CBO January twenty twenty five projection, total outlays
will be seven point zero three trillion, twenty three point
three percent of GDP. That's a fifty eight percent increase
over six years. The CBO projects federal outlays will be
(06:45):
eighty nine point three trillion across fiscal twenty six to
fiscal thirty five. Wow. Yeah, yeah, I understand pandemic spending,
but the pandemic is over, and quite frankly, that's a lie.
I didn't really understand pandemic spending. I railed against all
of the pandemic spending. Congress can't even find a way
(07:08):
to reduce one point five trillion over ten years. That's
a one point six eight percent cut. They can't even
find the money to do that. They're increasing everything, Johnson Wright.
(07:28):
Since nineteen forty eight, government has steadily grown, and spending
as a percentage of GDP has more than doubled. Again,
nothing the founders had. This wasn't what they had envisioned
at all, by any stretch the imagination. In nineteen thirty,
prior to the new deal, federal outlays with three point
(07:50):
five percent of GDP, well, state and local expenditures were
nine point one. That was basically a foundational premise. I've
basically talked about, you know, the tenth Amendment and the
need to make the Tenth Amendment great again, limiting federal
government power to local communities and states. But now now
(08:10):
we don't have that anymore, and quite frankly, I don't
think we'll ever get it back. I'm being honest at
this point and time, I just don't think it's going
to happen. It's going to happen. Should we be able
to get back to pre pandemic spending, Yeah, I don't
(08:34):
think that's that impossible to do, but it's not. Again,
you take a look, you take a look at the
increases and outlays for the Pentagon and Defense. I've talked
about this here on the program, and obviously the ten
thousand pound guerrillas in the room that we continue to
(08:55):
fail to deal with, and that's Medicare, Medicaid, and social
So we missed the opportunity to reform social security under
George W. Bush's second term. Didn't do it again. We're
wasting too much time and political capital on Iraq at
(09:16):
that point in time, So nothing got done. This Medicare
Medicare thing is it's amazing to me. Again, I don't
have any problem at all, and I've talked about this.
I don't have any problem with social safety nets, but
it used to be a bit of a tenant of
(09:38):
the Republican Party, and honestly, I've talked about here. I
think it's the right thing. Is you judge social welfare
programs based upon the ability to get people off social
welfare programs, not to keep them on forever, not to
make them multi generational, because that's what they become, they
(10:00):
become multi generational. Used to be you know, it's going
all the way back to Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton and
New Gingridge contract with America used to be a part
of you want to call it the Republican orthodoxy would
be to people receiving government benefits should also have to work.
(10:23):
Novel concept. The bill that they put forward required that
able bodied adults on Medicaid without dependence work roughly twenty
hours a week and actually school and volunteering count. Okay,
(10:45):
they put that in, but you know what's funny, it
doesn't kick in until twenty twenty nine, which basically says
is that it's never going to kick in at all.
They will eliminate it. They're putting it. It's how pathetic
these Republicans are. They're putting it in there like they've
actually done something. They've done nothing. Twenty nine that's when
(11:12):
that kicks in. The bill also sets up a waiver process,
which states have long abuse to evade work rules in
food stamps. They improve on checks on Medicaid eligibility, including
rolling back by administration rules that prevent states from frequently
revisiting their roles. Again, novel concept benefits should go to
(11:36):
those qualify, but again, it doesn't end any sort of
bias whatsoever toward prime age men who can work. The
Feds pay ninety percent of the cost of able bodied
adults eligible for Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act Obamacare,
(11:59):
but only fifty to seventy seven percent depending on the
state for pregnant women, the blind, and so on. Again.
Ten states right now have not participated in this Obamacare
deal with Medicaid, but because of this, they're going to
(12:22):
face greater scrutiny to start taking the money. And this
well again they're not even factoring this in, but it's
estimated to cost an additional six hundred and seventy billion
dollars over ten years. So the big beautiful bill once
all these other states jump on, because again they're going
to take the Fed's money. You're going to put millions
(12:46):
of more able bodied adults on Medicaid. Republicans don't want
to be bothered. They don't want to be bothered. You know,
I've been watching this happen throughout my life, crying out
loud and most certainly has gone parabolic since the Obama years,
(13:10):
without a doubt, without doubt, even during COVID, even during COVID,
all these you know so called you know, flag waving
you know Trump support conservatives. Oh yeah, it would be email.
They would go on radio shows wanting their wanting their
free money, wanting their checks. Give me, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme.
(13:32):
This is Josh Holly, Okay, Josh holly Man calls himself
a Republican from Missouri talking about how Republicans. He said,
the Democrats are in trouble, but Republicans are having an
identity crisis of our own, and he can see it.
(13:53):
And President Trump's one big, beautiful bill. Will Republicans be
a majority party of working people or permanent minority speaking
only for the c suite? Again, this is Bernie Sanders.
I mean, Bernie Sanders could have written Josh Hawley's editorial
(14:15):
in the New York Times. Yeah, yeah, Republicans are hot
or just for rich people, just for the c suite. No, Josh,
it's actually not about that. And again I've talked about
you know, you truly want to help people. You don't
just continually hand them out things. You have a process
(14:36):
where you're actually looking to get them to improve on
their lives. He says. Mister Trump has promised working class
tax cuts and protection for working class social insurance such
as Medicaid, But now a noisy contingent of corporatist Republicans
call at the party's Wall Street wing. Again, this is
you know, aoch could have wrote this. This guy's Republican
(15:01):
AA could have wrote this, Bernie could have wrote this
urging Congress to ignore all that and get back to
the old time religion, corporate giveaways, preferences for capital, and
deep cuts to social insurance. The wing of the party
wants Republicans to build our big, beautiful bill around slashing
health insurance for the working poor. But that argument is
(15:25):
both morally wrong and politically suicidal. Again, he talks about
the fact that medicaid serves seventy million Americans, over one
million in the state of Missouri where he represents, and
you know again gives a couple anecdotal things here and
constituents that are getting it, and again the constituents that
you're getting that are getting it quite frankly, they wouldn't
(15:47):
lose it based upon the cuts that they want to make. Here,
he basically says that Donald Trump. Donald Trump says, we're
doing absolutely nothing to hurt Medicare, Medicaid or Social Security,
nothing at all, And for good reason. The President understands
who his voters are. This is recent polling. Again, I'm
(16:09):
going to take his word on this. Sixty four percent
of Republicans hold a favorable view of medicaid. About one
in six have personally been on the program. Eighty percent
of Americans oppose significant cuts to Medicaid, and over half
have a personal or family connection to the Medicaid program.
He's talking about the Trump Coalition not pulling the lever
(16:33):
for Medicaid cuts. Mike Johnson just woke up to this
when he withdrew his support for one of the most
aggressive reductions to Medicaid on the table again. He says,
Republicans need to open their eyes. Our voters support social
insurance programs more than that. Our voters depend on those programs.
(16:53):
And there's a reason for that. This that Republicans will
do well to ponder. Our economy is increasingly unfre to
working people and their families. For the better part of
fifty years, working wages have been flat, and real terms,
working people cannot afford to get married when they want
to have the number of children they want to, or
raise those children as they would like. These days, they
(17:14):
can barely afford to put a roof over their kids' heads,
to say nothing of healthcare. And you know they say pieces.
Both Democrats and Republicans share the blame for this. So
I guess we're going to keep doing what we're doing, right.
Josh We're going to keep the government, the size of
government growing out of control, keep spending on things that
(17:35):
we can't afford, not reducing budget deficits, not growing the
economy like we could be doing, and just going to
hand out welfare. I guess that's the solution. That is,
that's where we're at at this point in time. And
(17:55):
it's makes me sad, It really does. It makes me sad.
You know. The funny thing is is the saying people
that are, you know, applauding these tariffs and talking about
the wonders of these tariffs that we've gone off on,
and the reality of the situation is, Josh, do you
(18:21):
do you think these tariffs are going to bother me?
I got to pay a little bit more for something now. No,
is it going to hit the working class? Yes? It
was interesting. It was interesting. Yeah. And what's his name there? Uh,
(18:43):
from the CNBC show. I'll think of his name. I
can't believe this, mister wonderful they call him. He's the
Canadian guy there. He's on CNN a lot too. And
he basically said, he said, where we're going this is
for tariffs is a ten and ten reciprocal on everybody
call it a VA consumption tax in America, but you
(19:07):
can't sell it to Congress, so you call it a tariff.
Oh yeah, O'Leary's forgot about name there. We have no choice,
we have we really don't have much of a choice.
Now we decided we're going to be this big welfare state.
(19:29):
We already know that they're gonna have to do something
when it comes to Social Security because that's automatically going
to be cut in a very short period of time.
You know, my point when it came to raising taxes,
and I don't think it was unreasonable, is that you know,
I don't want to raise the debt ceiling. I don't
want to run deficits. You need to balance the budget.
(19:52):
To balance the budget, then come and then raise people's taxes.
But again we see this everywhere. We're all in a
perpetual state of pain. Taxes for crying a lot. It
wasn't that long ago they finally repealed uh the uh
there was a Spanish American war tax that you were
paying on your on your cell phone bill. They embed
taxes and everything, they call them syntax. They got all
(20:14):
these different things, and again this UH ten tariff is
tax you're not going to see it, but you're gonna
pay it. You're gonna pay it. I mean, if somebody's
gonna have to pay for all of this, you see
these stories, and again this is this is the choice.
(20:35):
I listen. I'm obviously in the minority. Maas we run
a uh we want a you know, a republic here,
and I'm obviously in the camp where I'm a minority.
I you know, I kind of wish back for the
you know, the free market days Reagan Year's uh personal responsibility.
(20:58):
I've always kind of believed and that my entire life.
The American people don't. It's again I am I'm in
the minority here. I mentioned Omega Man yesterday. I'm to
realize just how I guess, how maybe how out of
touch I am with the rest of society at this point.
(21:19):
And most certainly the MAGA camp. Most certainly the MAGA
camp is all in on populism. They're all in on
big government, They're all in on handouts and giveaways and
tinkering in a myriad of different things. I'm going to
tie this story in. Then I grabbed today we're living
(21:39):
in two separate economies. Why young Americans feel stuck financially,
For many millennials and gen Zers, financial security remains out
of reach, even as their net worths grow on paper well,
looking in two separate economies. This is an economics content creator.
I don't even know what that is. UH talks about
the different financial realities between generations. The middle class, unfortunately,
(22:03):
is dead for millennials and gen zs our best case scenario.
The goalposts had just moved and it's still obtainable. But
you have to make over six figures to have that
middical class life again. They got people saying might make
enough to pay for basic living expenses and cover bills,
but if one thing happens and they can get behind again.
(22:23):
This is nothing new. I was gen xer, I went
through this. We all go through this. Meanwhile, costs keep
rising hiusing healthcare insurance have become more expensive. Americans now
bear more responsibility for funding their retirement. Listen, listen, you
(22:45):
keep looking to Washington, you keep looking for handouts and
giveaways and aid. And yes, it inflates the cost of everything.
That's just the reality. I'm here to tell the younger
generations again, behind this. You want this the welfare? I mean,
(23:07):
you can go to welfare states. You can go to
Europe and go to Europe, go to Scandiama. Again. Scandava
is a bad example to some degree because it's a
little bit insular and obviously population is a little bit smaller, more,
much more communal than the United States. It's different different. No,
(23:28):
you know, we're not you know, we're not going to
have people are not going to have more kids. Okay,
the population is going to continue to drop here in
the United States. That's just the reality. Unless you have immigration.
It's not It's come very very expensive to have children.
You're going to see lifestyle change. You're going to see
more kids after college, after getting educated, staying at home
(23:50):
with mom and dad for a longer period of time.
This is what happened. This is how it is. This
is how it is in Europe. I am most kids,
you know that they're going to school if they can
get into school. They're like, oh, school's free there. No,
school's free there if you get in. Not everybody gets
to go to college over there. You do. Guess what
(24:12):
you're done. You're going to move back in with mom
and dad. You're not even you're not saying dorms, forget
about that. You're living with mom and dad. You might
move out. You might move out after you get married,
but even then, you know you're probably going to stay
at home with mom and dad. Cost of living very
(24:34):
very high. You're not making as much money. Again, a
lot of welfare, lots of safety nets, lots of handouts,
lots of giveaway I get all that, but it's going
to be a real change for the way we are
(24:54):
going to live here in this country. People are going
to have to get used to it. They're gonna have
you because you can't have it all people. Again, we're
thirty six trillion dollars in debt as a nation, and
again we've been we've been living off the you know,
(25:16):
the fact that other countries have continued to buy our debt.
You take a look at, you know, the little money
that was printed during COVID for all of the handouts
and giveaways and cash that caused all of this inflation.
I mean, they're talking about the inflation numbers that came
out today and they weren't so bad. But let me
(25:39):
ask you a question. Has anything gone down in price? Oh? Yeah,
they'll talk about a couple of housing markets here and there.
No nothing overall again, costs of education, cost of insurance.
I can't even believe what I pay for car insurance.
It's hard to get my arms around what I pay
(26:01):
in car insurance with no tickets, no nothing, nothing. This
this is where we're at. You know, you talk about
this big, beautiful bill. We are a we have become
a big, to me, in my opinion, not so beautiful
(26:23):
welfare state. And that's the terrain. That that is the terrain.
And again you we're starting to recog We're starting to
recognize it. In college enrollment. Kids are starting to wisen
up and say, I can't go get myself into debt.
(26:46):
I can't, I can't go. You know, unless you gotta
go to college, you better have a reason for going
to school. You better be able to acquire a skill
that's going to be able to get you a job.
You better do a cost benefit analysis before you go
to school. The terrain has changed. Terrain has changed. There
(27:13):
used to be and not what Josh Hawley said, Republicans
just sticking up for that, the c suite Wall Street wing. No,
it used to be the party of personal responsibility, reliance
upon oneself, making your way in the world. Not that
that's not doable.
Speaker 1 (27:35):
It is.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
It is. The issue is is that human beings, unfortunately,
fortunately like animals, can be conditioned. And once you start
conditioning people that I don't have to do it. Government
will help me out. I get this hand out, I
can get this. You can make people lazy. You can again,
(28:03):
I talk about that again. Go my column Drug Pusher.
It's available on the Watchdog on Wall Street site shows
this demonstrates this and what has happened over the years.
But again, I'm in the minority. I'm in the minority.
(28:24):
You know, we have to be behind socialism. But again
I like to remind everybody, Okay, the tinkering around, the
tinkering around with the you know, the socialism out there
that this administration's trying to do. Picking doll how many
dollars people can have? Tell all this stuff that has
to go away, that has to go away, because you
(28:44):
you most certainly, you most certainly are going to need
people to go out there and continue to build and create,
protect and teach to fund this welfare state. And I
have already basically come to grips the fact that my
taxes are going to be going way up. Your taxes
(29:07):
are going to be going way up because it's just
not sustainable. Where we're at is just not sustainable. We
cannot continue to grow the welfare state, grow the size
of the military, and keep taxes where they are. Don't
(29:28):
have people willing to make cuts in Washington, DC, Like
I said, they can't even find one point five trillion
dollars and cuts over ten years and expenditures that outlays
that what it would I say, over eighty six trillion dollars.
Not happy about it, not happy about it. But you
(29:48):
know again I'm said it before. I'm not Mary Poppins.
There's no spoonful of sugar to make the medicine go down.
This is the reality of the terrain watch Dog on
wall stree dot com
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