May 16, 2025 • 8 mins
LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i
WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:
https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured
The price hikes are coming—and this time, it’s not just inflation. Trump’s new round of tariffs is already forcing major companies like Walmart, Apple, and Ford to raise prices, and Chris Markowski is here to break down exactly how this will hit American wallets.www.watchdogonwallstreet.com
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i
WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:
https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured
The price hikes are coming—and this time, it’s not just inflation. Trump’s new round of tariffs is already forcing major companies like Walmart, Apple, and Ford to raise prices, and Chris Markowski is here to break down exactly how this will hit American wallets.www.watchdogonwallstreet.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact it we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Here came the tariff price hikes. Yeah, they're on our way,
on my way. Yeah, there was a few announcements that
we told you about. The MAGA influencers and people that
again support anything that Donald Trump does. We're out there.
(00:37):
See there's not gonna be any inflation. Everything that's gonna
be grit right. Sure. Anyway, Walmart. Walmart said that they're
planning to raise prices on goods beginning later this month,
and I quote, we will do our best to keep
(00:58):
our prices as low as possible, but given the magnitude
of the tariffs, even at the reduced levels announced this
past week, we are not able to absorb all the pressure,
given the reality of narrow retail margins. Again, this is
this is what's gonna happen. Again. Most people don't understand
(01:20):
and that's that's part of the problem. Most people don't
understand business. They don't understand what margins are. You're gonna
get ready, You're gonna start hearing a litany of Trump
supporters on social media. On Fox News basically say.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
Well, Walmart makes a lot of money.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
You know they shouldn't do this. They make enough money.
And like I said, full socialist, all out socialist, is
how they're going to act. To a mark my words,
you're gonna see it. The lack of clarity that exists
in today's dynam operating environment makes the very near term
(02:02):
exceedingly difficult to forecast. And he basically said, he said,
you know, we can deal, we can deal with price
increases that go up by three percent, but thirty He's
not wrong, He's not wrong. It's it's a very very
difficult thing that they're going to have to be dealing with. Akam.
(02:23):
Walmart is one of the greatest in the world at
this supply chain management, managing costs, understanding what's on their shelves,
I mean everything. They're great at keeping prices down. That's
the reason why they've one of the reasons why they've
been so successful. Again, we talked about some of the
(02:45):
other companies. We talked about Ford, Apple others as well.
Announcing that they're going to be raising their prices and
you're going to continue to see it. It's going to happen.
And again I try to get across to people and
I don't understand. You know, I'm still trying to get
(03:07):
my arms around the Maga brain. Like I said, it's
the flip side of the coin of the blue hair brain.
You just know, you take logic and reason and you
throw it out the window. And I want the president
to do well. This tariff policy is a failure. It's
a failure, and he's walking it back, but he's got
(03:29):
to walk it back much much faster. A tariff is tax.
It's tax, and you know, once you come to grips
at that, understand that. Again, the left doesn't understand when
I explain corporate taxes goes one ear and out the other.
Looks like the you know, people in the Maga camp,
(03:50):
they don't understand that tariffs are a tacks. They seem
to think that every business out there is just going
to absorb them and not pass them on understanding business
at all. It's interesting. It's like they like they like
certain businesses when things are you know, they're going along
with them in a certain way, but then don't like
(04:12):
them when you know their fearless leader is telling them
something else. There's there's no logic in reason behind that.
You need to understand that. You know the person that
you're voting for works for you, is a human being,
and is fallible, and you need to call them out
(04:33):
when they are wrong. You do not pledge allegiance to
a president or a political movement. That's dangerous anyway. I
give a breakdown here of what we're looking at when
it comes to tariffs. The estimates right now is they
(04:56):
expect the overall US tariff rate to increase by thirteen
percent this year to the highest level since the nineteen thirties.
The ultimate level not sure, but it's going to remain
elevated for the foreseeable future. Okay, so you're taking a
look at that thirteen percent increase in domestic and foreign tariffs,
(05:22):
it's going to lower US real income by one percent
in the long run. The simple efficiency losses from reduced
trade are amplified by the existence of differentiated goods, global
supply chains, and fixed costs to engaging in trade. Higher
tariffs will likely shift resources away from the most successful firms,
(05:48):
which engage in international trade much more intensively. Than the
typical firm. One way company could adjust to higher tariffs
would be to reshore production back to the US. To
gauge whether restoring is plausible at a significant scale, we
construct measures of production costs for forty countries and twenty
four manufacturing sub industries. The results suggest that country specific
(06:13):
tariffs are unlikely to result in much restoring, because production
costs for alternative suppliers of US imports are well below
the US's for most products. Again, Donald Trump today called
out Apple for moving production of the iPhone to India.
(06:35):
Not happy about that. Are you serious, man? Are you serious?
We're not going to be making iPhones here in the
United States until we have the bloody robots that could
do it. We also estimate the domestic production of more
differentiated goods like medical equipment and semiconductors is relatively less
(06:55):
responsive to cost shocks, suggesting a higher hurdle for tariffs
to boost production in these sectors. In addition to the
standard efficiency losses from reduced trade, higher tariffs could weigh
on output in three ways. Higher tariffs will likely raise
equipment costs and discourage investment, lowering the capital stock and
(07:16):
GDP in the long run. We estimate that this channel
could exert a three quarter of a percent drag on
output over time. Second, higher tariffs could also weih on
innovation by reducing the most innovative firms access to export
markets and raising input costs. Third, economic studies suggests that
higher tariffs could lead to increased rent seeking by businesses
(07:40):
attempting to secure protection from foreign competition. Together their taken,
we expect higher tarffs away on US real income by
one and a half to two percent in the long run.
If tariff policies we accept this year, it become permanent.
That's much lower GDP, much lower growth. Watchdog on Wall
(08:02):
Street dot com
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact it we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Here came the tariff price hikes. Yeah, they're on our way,
on my way. Yeah, there was a few announcements that
we told you about. The MAGA influencers and people that
again support anything that Donald Trump does. We're out there.
(00:37):
See there's not gonna be any inflation. Everything that's gonna
be grit right. Sure. Anyway, Walmart. Walmart said that they're
planning to raise prices on goods beginning later this month,
and I quote, we will do our best to keep
(00:58):
our prices as low as possible, but given the magnitude
of the tariffs, even at the reduced levels announced this
past week, we are not able to absorb all the pressure,
given the reality of narrow retail margins. Again, this is
this is what's gonna happen. Again. Most people don't understand
(01:20):
and that's that's part of the problem. Most people don't
understand business. They don't understand what margins are. You're gonna
get ready, You're gonna start hearing a litany of Trump
supporters on social media. On Fox News basically say.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
Well, Walmart makes a lot of money.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
You know they shouldn't do this. They make enough money.
And like I said, full socialist, all out socialist, is
how they're going to act. To a mark my words,
you're gonna see it. The lack of clarity that exists
in today's dynam operating environment makes the very near term
(02:02):
exceedingly difficult to forecast. And he basically said, he said,
you know, we can deal, we can deal with price
increases that go up by three percent, but thirty He's
not wrong, He's not wrong. It's it's a very very
difficult thing that they're going to have to be dealing with. Akam.
(02:23):
Walmart is one of the greatest in the world at
this supply chain management, managing costs, understanding what's on their shelves,
I mean everything. They're great at keeping prices down. That's
the reason why they've one of the reasons why they've
been so successful. Again, we talked about some of the
(02:45):
other companies. We talked about Ford, Apple others as well.
Announcing that they're going to be raising their prices and
you're going to continue to see it. It's going to happen.
And again I try to get across to people and
I don't understand. You know, I'm still trying to get
(03:07):
my arms around the Maga brain. Like I said, it's
the flip side of the coin of the blue hair brain.
You just know, you take logic and reason and you
throw it out the window. And I want the president
to do well. This tariff policy is a failure. It's
a failure, and he's walking it back, but he's got
(03:29):
to walk it back much much faster. A tariff is tax.
It's tax, and you know, once you come to grips
at that, understand that. Again, the left doesn't understand when
I explain corporate taxes goes one ear and out the other.
Looks like the you know, people in the Maga camp,
(03:50):
they don't understand that tariffs are a tacks. They seem
to think that every business out there is just going
to absorb them and not pass them on understanding business
at all. It's interesting. It's like they like they like
certain businesses when things are you know, they're going along
with them in a certain way, but then don't like
(04:12):
them when you know their fearless leader is telling them
something else. There's there's no logic in reason behind that.
You need to understand that. You know the person that
you're voting for works for you, is a human being,
and is fallible, and you need to call them out
(04:33):
when they are wrong. You do not pledge allegiance to
a president or a political movement. That's dangerous anyway. I
give a breakdown here of what we're looking at when
it comes to tariffs. The estimates right now is they
(04:56):
expect the overall US tariff rate to increase by thirteen
percent this year to the highest level since the nineteen thirties.
The ultimate level not sure, but it's going to remain
elevated for the foreseeable future. Okay, so you're taking a
look at that thirteen percent increase in domestic and foreign tariffs,
(05:22):
it's going to lower US real income by one percent
in the long run. The simple efficiency losses from reduced
trade are amplified by the existence of differentiated goods, global
supply chains, and fixed costs to engaging in trade. Higher
tariffs will likely shift resources away from the most successful firms,
(05:48):
which engage in international trade much more intensively. Than the
typical firm. One way company could adjust to higher tariffs
would be to reshore production back to the US. To
gauge whether restoring is plausible at a significant scale, we
construct measures of production costs for forty countries and twenty
four manufacturing sub industries. The results suggest that country specific
(06:13):
tariffs are unlikely to result in much restoring, because production
costs for alternative suppliers of US imports are well below
the US's for most products. Again, Donald Trump today called
out Apple for moving production of the iPhone to India.
(06:35):
Not happy about that. Are you serious, man? Are you serious?
We're not going to be making iPhones here in the
United States until we have the bloody robots that could
do it. We also estimate the domestic production of more
differentiated goods like medical equipment and semiconductors is relatively less
(06:55):
responsive to cost shocks, suggesting a higher hurdle for tariffs
to boost production in these sectors. In addition to the
standard efficiency losses from reduced trade, higher tariffs could weigh
on output in three ways. Higher tariffs will likely raise
equipment costs and discourage investment, lowering the capital stock and
(07:16):
GDP in the long run. We estimate that this channel
could exert a three quarter of a percent drag on
output over time. Second, higher tariffs could also weih on
innovation by reducing the most innovative firms access to export
markets and raising input costs. Third, economic studies suggests that
higher tariffs could lead to increased rent seeking by businesses
(07:40):
attempting to secure protection from foreign competition. Together their taken,
we expect higher tarffs away on US real income by
one and a half to two percent in the long run.
If tariff policies we accept this year, it become permanent.
That's much lower GDP, much lower growth. Watchdog on Wall
(08:02):
Street dot com
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