July 16, 2021 • 41 mins
Charch and Brian break down the NFC East, and you'll be shocked to learn that Charch is euphoric at the prospects of the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Washington Football Team.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,
and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now,
here's your host. Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. I'm Paul
(00:23):
charchy in. My co host is Brian Johnson. Welcome back.
Finally you can say welcome back to me. Yeah, I
mean normally you're here again. Yeah, that's usually the case.
Scott Fish filled in admirably for you, and it wasn't
even a filling. I mean, you know you were available.
We just wanted you know, he's a cost in the show.
He gets to come back. You choose the film. I'm
(00:44):
sure he did. Alright, he did, great, he did. Um,
we're gonna break down the NFC East and it we'll
talk through our how we see these offenses functioning for
this season. We've been doing this now, I think six
straight weeks where we've broken down different different divisions and uh,
the NFCUS because it gives us a chance to talk
about some shaky quarterbacking on the whole. But some football teams,
(01:09):
football teams, we're gonna talk about some and I will
be breaking down football team. Because it's Stu Beird, I'm
gonna take the Stupird option. So I've got Washington, You've
got the Giants. Before we jump into the Giants, let
me just remind people I gave you Stu Beird though
we were discussing, we were prepping for the show, and
the first thing I said was you get Stu Beird.
Of course, thank you. We appreciate your yes. Um, and
(01:33):
you got stuck with the team you love to hate,
the Giants. So yeah, the division champions Giants, I forgot
about that. I wait, no, Washington's the division channel. They
didn't matter. They both made the playoffs though, right, No,
that's right. I'm forgetting that the Giants should have won.
They should have well, no one should have won that
(01:54):
division last year anyway, Properly, that's enough reality football. We
jump into the Giants. A reminder gives you Lead dot
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dot com and the forty four team super Chop twelve
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That's one and you could be a part of history.
That's the flagship super Chop content is cash prizing that.
I think the grand prize is three grand in that one,
if memory serves not bad for a fifty Yeah, that's
(02:41):
that would be. That would be awfully nice. We we
filled up the scott Fish Bowls Super Chop for charity
in a day, in less than a day, like five hours.
I was given last Friday off day off quote unquote
at that day launches and I'm not I don't have
the day off. Then that was awesome. They feel really
fast though, and thank you to everybody that decided to
(03:03):
participate in that. And the fifty dollars that went to
Fantasy Cares was great. Rhodo Wire for the free subscription,
outstanding trophy Smack for the amazing rings that they're producing
for this and really really nice. So let's talk about
the giants. Let's jump in here, and as we've done
for all of our past shows on this again. We're
(03:24):
not recapping last year. We're looking forward for how we
think this offense is going to look. And let's jump
into the Giants. Giants. Uh, last year offense not good
thirty feet and uh thirty one in yards per game
and points per game. Um. Joe Judge makes his return
as head coach his second year. He brings along UH
he's had Jason Garrett into offensive mastermind. Jason Garrett uh
(03:47):
still the offensive coordinator for the g Men. Uh. Let's
start with se Kwan Barkley obviously got to start with Barkley. UH.
The big name of course on the team. Running back
five really player five overall as of right now, it's
either like you, unless it's a super flex league and
one quarterback leagues, you're taking a a top five running
back or Travis Kelsey, which, by the way, it's Travis Kels.
(04:09):
Well now his mom says it's Kelsey, so his mom
would know, so so this thing is still very ambiguous.
We had the bit because my fantasy league would pronounce
it Travis Kels and we used to make fun of that.
The shouty guy was the best bits. Yeah, We're like,
they're so wrong. It's funny, but no, it might be right.
(04:29):
But anyway, UH, if you're not taking Barkley, UH, you
might be taking Kelsey outside of one of the other
big backs. But Barkley injured Week one of last year.
As everyone remembers, UH last season, people are expecting a
full on bounce back. They're banking on it. At ADP five,
we'll talk about him. It's a little more this segment. UH.
And if for handcuffed reasons you're interested. Davante Booker is
(04:51):
the top backup running back, and they also have Corey
Clement who came over from the Eagles, and our rookie
Gary bright Well. But whoever the running back is for
the Giants, the a running behind arguably the worst offensive
line in the NFL. In Pro Football Focus his mind
that ranked thirty seconds going into this season. UH. And
this despite the fact that they have put money and
(05:11):
draft picks towards that line. They have tried, but the
players that they've invested in have not worked out. UH.
They invested a fourth, fourth overall pick in Andrew Thomas
last year, UH flopped at left tackle. UH. Nate Solder,
who was the starting left tackle last year, will probably
move to right tackle. List here does make his return.
He opted out in so that that will help. That
(05:33):
does help a lot. But uh, outside of that, Um,
they have a converted guard playing center. This will be
a second year playing center, and the other two guard
spots right now wide open for competition. The line is
even defined right now, so very worrisome there for the
running game and not only the passing game. Daniel Jones
currently quarterback one, pretty much free in terms of a
(05:54):
starting quarterback. If you wants too high, you mean he
should be going later. You're going later than that. I
mean there are guys after him, like Carson Wentz, I'd
rather roll the dice on, and many you know, many others.
We'll talk about him soon. Ryan Fitzpatrick going after uh,
Daniel Jones. I would take fits nine out of ten
times over Jones and probably Deshaun Watson. The one other
(06:16):
time was also going after Daniel Jones. Worth the lotto
play moral stands aside. Um, Jones does have a shiny
new toy in wide receiver Kenny Golladay, who is the
leader of that pack. Now he's going off the board
as wide receiver wide receiver twenty seven right now, which
seems about right Uh, he's definitely the wide receiver you
(06:37):
want out of this corpse. Uh corps of corps corpse
might be a more pronounced that. It's actually a deep
set of receiver Sterling Shepherd. The problem, I think because
it's too many Sterling Shepherd, Darius Layton. You can get them. Well,
then if you're drafted Darius Tony, a rookie that some
people are excited about from a redraft. Respect don't like
(06:58):
this landing spot. He's he's dead to me there um,
But yeah, giants wide receivers do not did not produce
last year. Granted Golliday wasn't there, but they were bottom
made and catches bottom four and yards and touchdowns at
the position. I'm just kind of out on this whole
whole pass game at the wide receiver, even Holiday, who
in theory should immediately become the alpha. We see a
(07:20):
lot of times even very good receivers first year on
new teams struggle. I just and there's just too many
balls to go around, including Barkley, Evan Ingram, Sterling Shepherd, Tony.
It's just you know, slat and there's just so many
guys that need to get fed. I worry about Golliday
getting appropriate usage here. I'm with you, and the Giants
(07:40):
actually have a very good defense, you know, so I
don't I don't know if they're gonna be giving up
a ton of points, so I don't know how active.
If they're really wanting to win games, I mean they are,
but I don't know how many they're gonna win. It's
gonna be more good defense, ball control with Barkley, that's
gonna be the recipe for success. And you just mentioned
Evan Ingram. Let's talk about him and I might as
well throw in the He is my highest upside player
(08:02):
for the Giants right now. He has underachieved so far
in his career, to say the least, just thirteen touchdowns
across four seasons. Of course, he plays all sixteen games
last year for the first time in his career, scores
one touchdown God, the only tight end touchdown for the Giants.
But man, the Giants do utilize their tight ends a lot.
(08:24):
They're they've been top eleven and catches for three straight years,
usually a focal point of the offense. But Kyle Rodolf,
is there a really good red zone end zone target?
And I worry that this could be another one to
three touchdown season for Evan Ingram. But right now it
tight end fourteen. I mean he's gone like tight end
(08:46):
six five, like his a DP and now the bottom
has fallen out finally maybe he puts it all together.
Still a freakish athlete, he's showing flashes of brilliance. Of
course he's had some some bad drops. But at tight
end fourteen right now, if you're missing out on the
Big three or four, however you want a group of
those guys. There's top six seven potential here for Ingram.
(09:07):
If you can put it all together in a tight
end fourteen, that's a virtually free uh, if you're looking
at your starting tight end and to the riskiest player,
it's pretty obvious. And he's a top five pick if
he gets hurt like he did last year, year done
before and the year before, and of course everyone is
at risk of injury, but uh, obvious a little concerned.
(09:29):
They don't like fully unleashed him out of the gate either.
When the season starts, you know, like people are thinking
thirty touches, I'm thinking more seven team twenty worlcome back
a little bit. I know he's a freak of nature.
He's still very young, very much in the prime of
his career. But I don't know top five pick, it's
it's too risky for me. He's not he's not locked
(09:52):
or produced. E've been taking DeVante Booker late in a
lot of drafts, even if you don't have Barkley right
not right now. I don't have Barkley at any I
don't have any shares of Barkley and across any of
my draft. So I would almost argue, if you have
Barkley not to take Booker. Booker will be serviceable. But
if Barkley goes down, you're pretty much done. But if
you don't know in Barkley and you get the starting
(10:13):
the Giants, but uh that's but uh yeah, that's all.
That's all we have to say for the Giants, other
than I hope Gettleman Dave Gettleman finally gets fired after
this season. I think it will happen. I hope. So
for Washington football team, they get competent quarterbacking for the
first time in years, and this team is said to
(10:35):
improve significantly over last year. Brian, you're gonna hear a
lot of optimism. This team finished twenty fifth points last year.
Twenty yards. I think they're going to be closer to
top twelve top fourteen in both of those categories. So
let's start with Ryan Fitzpatrick, your new starter, although we'll
mention uh Taylor Heineke looked pretty darn good at the
(10:55):
end of last year. But Fitzpatrick goes in as the starter,
and he played well last year, and his benching for
to a Toungo violoa should not be viewed as a
reflection of Fitzpatrick's play. And you know, I'm gonna give
you some numbers here that really I think will will
help demonstrate why he's going to be very valuable here,
and especially compared to recent Washington quarterbacks. You know, Fitzpatrick
(11:19):
impressed the ball upfield. He finished eleventh in completed air
yards last year, in eighth in yards per attempt. And
this despite last year he had the second shortest time
to throw and he still finished eighth and yards pert tempt.
I mean that guy hung tough in the pocket and
delivered downfield. Last year. He ranked number one in aggressiveness,
(11:41):
which is next next. Jen stats is calculation for a
pastor's willingness to throw into tight coverage. I like that
about him. He's always been this way. He'll take the
periodic pick if it means that he can get the
ball towards his best receivers. Fitzpatrick led the league in
on target a percentage in balls thrown twenty yards or
(12:03):
longer last year. He was good last year, and they
mentioned him anyway, the Dolphins would have made the playoffs.
I'm convinced that they kept him there for sure. All
we needed was one more win his He had six
his sixty five completion percentage. People think that he's a
very errand thrower, but he completed six of his passes.
Aaron Rodgers completed sixty six, so I really think that's
(12:26):
not accurate either. He was next gent Stats seventh ranked
quarterback in completions above expectation. So you're all that together anything,
And I've got more on him later. So let's go
to Let's go to his receiving targets, beginning with Terry
mcterry McLaurin sitting on a breakout season. He's already really
(12:47):
good despite the terrible quarterbacking they've had. Um, how bad
was it last year? Mclauren was seventy five in catchable
target rate. Last year seventy five among why receivers and
catchable targets. Now with Fitzpatrick, he's going to see way
more downfield opportunities. Fitzpatrick's a dot has been the top three, sorry,
(13:10):
top ten for three straight years, so we're gonna see
McLaurin work downfield much more. I love that opportunity for him. Um.
Fitzpatrick's number one wide receiver, so his top wide receiver.
His averaged one hundred forty two targets per season when
Fitzpatrick has started ten or more games, which he has
projected to do. Here, if we put Terry McLaren on
(13:33):
one forty two targets, he will be a top ten
wide receiver this year easily. McLaren played a whopping eight
per cent of the team's plays last year, so obviously
I love mclauren. Curtis Samuel gets reunited with Ron Rivera
and Scott Turner, who know him very well from Carolina.
He'll presumably read that jack of all trades guy that
(13:55):
he has been for Carolina. UM, but now with the
best quarterbacking of his career, and he's reunited with Terry McLaurin,
who they went. Isn't that fun? Um? You know, so
you know it's gonna be the same we did to
we do. Just say that Fitzpatrick loves to feed his
number one and that's going to continue to be the
case here. Um, but Samuel figures to be the number
(14:18):
two receiver in this offense, and they're gonna run him
some and do some other stuff with him. I think
you'll get a lot of high and low stuff. Let
me note this. He ran predominantly from the slot last year,
but under Scott Turner in Carolina Curtis Samuel lined up
outside much more often. And I think he's going to
(14:38):
be an outside receiver for this team because Adam Humphries
is going to man the slot and he'll likely be
on the field more than people realize because people in
their minds still think Samuel, like last year, is gonna
be predominantly slot. I don't think he is. I think
he's gonna go outside much more so. Um. He Humphries
got cut from the Titans. He was two years into
a four year deal, and that's you that was worrisome
(15:00):
that they didn't decide to keep him, and he had
the concussions last year. But um, you could play him
in a PPR situation only and sort of pick your spots.
He played with Fitzpatrick and Tampa for what it's worth,
But I don't think Humphries is anything more than the
last last pick of your draft kind of guy, or
some of you pick up off the waiver wire. Rookie
(15:21):
Diemi Brown is there. He's a speedcer with deep speed,
and we do have a deep armed quarterback here, so
he might be somebody who could you could throw a
dart at from time to time. But there's also Campsen's
and Antonio Golden Gandy and Kelvin Harmon, and there's other guys.
Stevens sim City. I like that it is sim City
with two Sims on the team. Uh. Tight end Logan
(15:44):
Thomas is fascinating. So he had the improbable path as
a college quarterback turned tight end turned journeyman, bouncing around
from team to team to team, and then last year
he's on the field for Washington's plays. And he was
a pro drafted as a pro quarterback. But Cardinals, that's
like the fourth quarterback. He wasn't like signed as a
free Asian or anything like that. He was drafted to
(16:04):
play quarterback. Didn't work out and do his credit. I mean,
he's managed to stay in the league and Lions gave
up on him, and then now he's turned into a
very good tight end. Over the final eleven games of
last year, he finished with per game averages of five catches,
fifty one yards and half a touchdown per game. That's
pretty solid, lead the team in red zone targets. There's
downside here though, because again Fitzpatrick feeds his number one
(16:28):
Curtis Samuel's now there, Adam Humphries now there. They dat
drafted Diamie Brown. I think there's some downside on Logan Thomas.
I don't think he's gonna get quite as much usage,
quite as many balls, but he's he's still I still
probably make sense about where he's going in most fantasy drafts.
As currently as tight ends eight off the board. Yeah,
he's you know, it's the big three. And then he
(16:50):
got Hockinson, got Art and uh Kyle Pitts and then
it gets scared to that. Then it's then it starts
with Logan Thomas, and I don't like him being the guy.
I'm kind of avoiding that situation. But as good as
he was last year, if you told me I get
five catches fifty have a touchdoff from him that I'm
definitely in, which is what he did in the second
(17:12):
half last year. Let's go to the running back position.
Everybody's high in Antonio Gibson at this point, including me
his abilities. I think we're overlooked by many last year.
But I think given the off season of reflection, people
have gone back and looked at his body of work
last year and realized Antonio Gibson was really good. He
was Pro Football Focus his sixth ranked running back last year.
(17:34):
Derrick Henry led the NFL and miss tackles. Antonio Gibson
tied him in miss tackles per carry. That's pretty impressive,
Pretty impressive, the team repeatedly said last as repeatedly said
in the offseason, They're gonna throw to him more, as
you probably remember at Tuni with Gibson's converted wide out
(17:54):
and so that makes sense. I think he will. I
think that will end up happening, and that will end
up dink J. D. McKissick, whose only real value to
fantasy fans is fantasy players, is as a PPR back.
I read a report today, uh from NBC Sports Edge
whatever Rhodo World's called now about how he's put on
muscle though, put on some weight kiss and now that
(18:15):
he's gonna take the job from Antonio Gibson. But have
given the opportunity, he might be more than he could
be the full on bell cow backup for Gibsons. That
could make sense. Uh, here's the real problem for Antonio Gibson.
His pass blocking is awful. ProFootball Focus ranked him sixty
one at the position. There are only three qualified runners
(18:36):
who ranked lower than Antonio Gibson, and he we need
him to be on the field and third down if
we want to see the past catching get better and
then the receiving numbers go up. So he's got to
get better than that riskiest player. His current ADPs loan
Logan Thomas, who as I mentioned earlier, he's going off
the board and round seven. Last year there were only
three viable targets on the whole team. This year there
(18:56):
might be six, so I think his numbers are could
potentially go down. The player with the most upside, we're
back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, quarterback twenty six right now. Had
Fitzpatrick been allowed to play the full season in Miami,
he was on track for four thousand one d passing yards,
(19:17):
twenty seven and a half touchdowns, thirty three thirty rushing
yards and five rushing touchdowns. His closest comparable quarterback Justin Herbert.
Justin Herbert's ADPs quarterback six. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who put up
again was on a per game basis. Is putting the
same numbers as Justin herbert Is ADP is six too cheap.
(19:39):
Too cheap. Hopefully you will not be too cheap to
consider the sponsors that you were about to hear. As
we take a break, we come back, we'll talk about
the Philadelphia e goals eight, an offense in a great
deal of transition. We'll tell you how we feel about
them in moments. Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Giargie
and Brian Johnson. We you, let's talk about the Eagles.
(20:03):
There may be no more player with upside and downside
then Jalen Hurts. If he can be a good enough
passer to hold that job all year and continue running
like he did last year, he has top five fantasy
quarterback in him. But if his passing stays at the
(20:25):
level it was last year, Brian, I can't tell you
he even finishes the season as the start. Yeah, well, uh,
we'll certainly talk about the upside and downside of Jalen
Hurts a little more. But like you mentioned, a lot
of change going on in Philly. A new head coach,
Nick Sirianni, the former offensive coordinator for the Colts. They
also have a new offensive coordinator, Shane Stiken, who is
the former O C for the Chargers. So a lot
(20:47):
of changes on the sidelines for Philly. Um, we're not
good in terms of yards per game in points per
game last year respectively. That was a lot of Carson
Wentzlough and not Jalen Hurts of course. Uh. Well, and
again that offensive line just amated by injury, and we'll
talk about the line a little more as well. Uh,
Philly did rank top eight in past play percentage passed
(21:09):
the ball over of the time, very past friendly offense. UM.
For Jalen Hurt's sake and his past catchers, hopefully that
remains the same. But I let's talk about the running,
the running game and Miles Sanders, who's had a somewhat tortuous,
tortuous tortuous in the league, especially from a fantasy perspective.
Big weeks down weeks just very inconsistent, even when it
(21:33):
just comes from his usage and touches per game. Just
six h rushing touchdowns last year's zero receiving touchdowns right now,
going off the board as RB eighteen, just after the
DeAndre Swifts and j K. Dobbins of the world. But
I don't know if I like that spot for Sanders
and Redraft. I like guys like Chris Carson David Montgomery
(21:54):
who are going after Sanders. Uh, just from the safety
Here's why I kind of like Sanders. Everybody's so down
on him. A DP is really depressed, and that offensive line,
when healthy is actually quite good. So I'm kind of
interested in Sanders this year. The So let's talk about
the line. It's been elite for years. The Eagles have
(22:15):
had a very good offensive line, and it fell off
a lot last year because of injury and and they're
they're stars are falling a little bit. Right tackle Lane
Johnson and center Jason Kelse is he kels or is
he kills he too? He's gotta bell. They might be
past their their prime by a pinch, but they're still
still very good players. Uh. They did invest a nineteen
(22:37):
first round pick and left tackle Andre Dillard, but he
has yet to live up to expectations. They do get
back the Eagles, that is right guard Brandon Brooks, who
missed all of that'll help. He was Pro Football Focused
hot Pro Football Focus his highest graded guard in twenty
nineteen and he missed all of last year, so the
line much improved they are. They are only ranks seventeenth
(22:57):
by Pro Football Focus going into the season, but if
it stays intact, it could return to its glory days
and UH help boost Miles Sanders into top twelve RB territory.
But he's very much a coin flip and very much
a contestant or a finalist for the highest downside. For
give you another reason that I'm optimistic here. You know
Doug Peterson's gone. Peterson used a maddening running back by
(23:20):
committee that oftentimes was not reflective of who the best
runners were, and Sanders is the best runner. But we
know Nick Sirianni won't do that in the Colts. That's
kind of very much so it I agree it is,
but it's a but it's an opportunity for it for
Sanders to um to get more work than he had,
and I think there's a decent chance he does here
(23:42):
you would you would hope to think he does. And
just for the sake of mentioning Boston, Scott will be
the primary backup. He has filled in admirably, admirably in
the past, and they do. They did sign carry On
Johnson for those wondering if he's still in the league
and drafted, Uh, Kenneth Gainwell, I think in the fourth
round as a he's a rookie. Uh. Tailing off the
running back commy there. Uh So let's go to the
passing game and Jalen Hurts the other big name in Philly.
(24:04):
Uh inside the overall top eighty five players currently quarterback
nine in most formats, going right after Aaron Rodgers, before
Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Burrow. A lot
of faith being put in Jalen Hurts. Uh. But like
you said, he he was great last year. But but
the sample was small. We'll we'll dive into Hurts just
a little bit more in a second. Let's talk about
(24:26):
his receivers really quick. And when you start with the
Philly receivers, you really have to start with the tight
ends and not the wide receivers. And for at the moment.
As of right now, the tight ends are both Dallas
Goddard and zach Ertz. Zach Ertz is still an Eagle. Uh.
The Eagles have always used their tight ends a ton,
always ranking near the top of all relevant fantasy stats.
(24:47):
Richard Rodgers and Jason Croom were catching tight ends catching
touchdowns for the Philly for the Eagles last year at
tight end. Uh. The real history has Sirianni comes from
India where they use multiple tight ends all the time too.
You know, the recent history for the Philly tight ends
has gone from all zach Ertz to kind of a
fifty fifty Earth's got her platoon, but the torch is
(25:08):
certainly getting passed to god Heart now currently tight ends
seven going after all the big names, and again Ertz
is there for now at tight end twenty one. I'm
thank him leaving. I am too, I you know, I
like taking Art's late and then I just think they're
gonna end up moving him someplace. Now, you know, where
they move him may not be a desirable spot, but
presumably any team that's gonna trade whatever it costs to
(25:30):
get zach Ertz and Earth's wants to be well paid
to um you know that's gonna pay him and trade
the equity for him. Presumably they're going to use him.
Buffalo was the primary landing spot that we've heard about. Yeah,
I would love that, but anyway, we'll see what happens
with Earth's. As for the wide receivers, not very exciting.
I'm gonna talk about DeVante Smith very quickly. He's the
(25:51):
only one I'm gonna mention. I'm not gonna talk about
Jalen reagor Travis Folgum. I'm not going there in drafts.
Maybe they start producing in the season, I'll ad him
off the waiver. Why but they're they're not draftable in
my mind, not even Reager, even though he has a
draftable a DP at one sixty two, people are drafting him.
I would not. DeVante Smith is my highest upside player.
He's a rookie wide receiver forty right now, but he's
(26:12):
the top wide receiver on this team. Not the top receiver.
That would be Dallas Goddard. But uh, one of the
most exciting wide receivers ever to play college football. Is
absolutely dominated. Won the Heisman, almost won the national championship
on his own. It's quite simply he's if he's the
top target at wide receiver on a team that's top
eight in passing play percentage, and if Jalen Hurts can
keep it clicking. If you're getting Devonte Smith at wide
(26:34):
receiver forty, I'm not comparing to Randy Moss. People concerned,
well from the Thinness factor a little bit, but you know,
there are a lot of concerns with Randy Moss go
into his rookie year. There are a lot of concerns
with Devonte Smith. He could throw all those out the
window and just be a phenom right out of the game.
And wide receiver forty, I'll roll the dice there, And
(26:55):
unlike Jalen Waddle, Um, you know who who's going, I
don't know about if team picks ahead of him, twelve
picks ahead of him, you know that offense, that passing
offense is largely going to go through Smith, and you
know that's that's there's a certain amount of appeal to
that for those that need productivity from him this year.
And lastly, it was either you know, Miles Sanders or
(27:16):
Jalen Hurts as your riskiest player. I guess maybe Dallas
Goddard could have been in the convo, But I'm going
Jalen Hurts if you're taking quarterback. We've said it in
previous pods. It might be the deepest that's ever been
in fantasy. If you're sinking uh, you know, a top
six seven round pick into Jalen Hurts. He has to
pan out, and if he doesn't, yeah, you'll probably feel
(27:36):
uh find someone on the waiveward to back him up.
But you caught it cost yourself a stud at another
position if it Hurts doesn't pan out, So yeah, most
risk I'm with him that um and tons of upside. Definitely,
it all comes down to his passing. He just he
has to be able to pass better than what we
saw last year. He'll give you that rushing floor, but
if his arm doesn't keep him on the field, he's
not gonna be getting any rushing. That's at the end
(27:58):
of the day. It's a passing position and people don't
like to hear that in Fantasy owners and you know,
I get it, but and you're here for the rushing,
but at some point your quarterback has to be able
to pass. Let's go to the Dallas Cowboys. Bryant uh
Dak Prescott returns to lead a high powered offense that
struggled without him. As you already know from last year,
in the four full games he played, he was Fantasy
Football's highest scoring quarterback last year. There's a lot of
(28:20):
optimism for him. He uh he topped four hundred fifty
passing yards in three of his four full games last year.
Four fifty. Dak obviously very good passer, elite weaponry around him,
a very safe fantasy selection despite coming off the ankle.
I think the question is, though, on this rebuild ankle,
(28:41):
are they going to run him as much? I mean,
much of his fantasy upside had come from these combo
games where you know, he ran for forty five yards
and maybe a touchdown and he threw for two eighty
or three thirty and a couple of scores, and you know,
in combination, those are really good Dak Prescott games. Just
to unclear as to whether or not that rebuilt ankle
(29:03):
is going to allow him to produce the same kind
of rushing numbers and if Mike McCarthy will allow him
to have the same kind of rushing numbers. I'm not
too worried about the ability, but yeah, they're not going
to force it as much as they did in the past.
I think that's true. Let's talk about the offensive line
because that's much of the story with Dallas this year.
Offensive line decimated by injury last year, but should return
(29:24):
to I'm not calling the elite status because I don't
think we're that level for these Cowboys anymore. But this
could be a top ten offensive line. It was only
two years ago they were the number one line with
a bullet that's in most people's minds. Yeah, it's an
aging Uh, there's it's a somewhat aging line in spots
like left tackle Tyrone Smith returns he missed almost the
(29:45):
entire season last year. Their right tackle l Collins returns
after missing oh of last year with a hip injury.
Zack Martin, the right guard is elite. The left guard
is Connor Williams, a solid, not splashy player. Center is
pretty big question mark. Travis Frederick had to retire, of course.
Is most people know um Tyler Biadaz I believe is
(30:08):
how you pronounce his name. He was the starter last year,
he wasn't great, and he's back for this year. A
wide receiver. You already know. It's a total embarrassment of
ridges for the Cowboys. There are three great receivers. They
each are worthy of one hundred targets. They each had
one hundred targets last year. And you know that means
when you when you're spreading a hundred targets out three
(30:29):
different guys. Some games, all right, I know, UM, some
games you're gonna have guys that just don't show up
in the box score as much because the other two
need to get fed. And so that happens. Sometimes. Everybody
believes Ceedee Lamb is going to take a big leap
in year two. I'm I'm certainly on board. In his
four full games with Dak Prescott, which were his first
(30:50):
four NFL games, by the way, So you know, weeks
one through four of last year with Dak Prescott, his
production there put Ceedee Lamb on pace for ninety re receptions,
one thousand, four hundred yards and six touchdowns. So ninety
three catches for rookie, that'd be probably it would have
(31:12):
been an amazing season for him. Um. Then Dalton came on,
Lamb season went in the crapper and you know the
story from the rest of that. Um, he's tall, he's
a ranging receiver, surprising burst even though he doesn't have
top end speed, tons of huge broken plays at Oklahoma.
Lamb had the league's second best catch rate last year
on balls twenty yards or longer. And now he gets
(31:36):
a far better, stronger armed quarterback in Dak Prescott ceedee
lamb is um is Is has moved in the eyes
of most people into the teens for his a DP
Among wide receivers, Amari Cooper led the team in every
meaningful statistical category last year, and I'll probably do that
again this year, although it'll be much closer, he said,
(31:58):
career highs and red zone targets. Last year, he converted
twenty seven percent of his red zone receptions into touchdowns.
Cooper got seven targets from inside the five yard line,
which is nuts. That is a lot for a wide receiver.
Seven targets from inside the five yard line. He remains
the safest of the Dallas receivers um, although all the
(32:18):
steam for Lamb makes it close. But I still think Cooper.
If I had to pick one, I would take Cooper slightly,
and I've got them ranked within like two players of
each other, two receivers of each other. I'll mention this
though Cooper underwent ankle surgery in January, didn't participate in
the team's offseason program at all, and he is expected
to be okay for the start of training camp. We'll see.
(32:38):
Then there's Michael Gallup third wheel. Still targeted a hundred
thirteen times last year and a hundred five times the
year before that, or I might have had those backwards.
Actually I think it was hundred five last year. Um.
He's the big body downfield guy that they throw too.
It's the boom er bust stuff. When he gets when
he connects on those deep balls, he's great, and he
scores on those. It's great, but usually it doesn't work out.
(33:00):
In his twelve non touchdown games last year, he averaged
three catches for forty two yards. That's that kills you.
Those basically every time I used him on DraftKings it
was hard pegging those four so temptingly yeah, yeah, Um,
let's go to the tight ends. Blake Jarwin returns after
(33:20):
missing the entire season with an a c L and
the season opener. He he got in some like practice
and O t s and mini camps, expected to be
available for training camp. He's a far He's he's the
much more polished receiver of the two between him and
Dalton Schultz, and I expect him to resume his number
one tight end status that he had going into last year. Um.
(33:41):
Dalton Schultz just is not a is not a special player.
And the tight end position though with either guy, I
think there's some danger and there's a fair amount of
steam on Blake Darwin Um coming back. But in reality,
the tight end position, no matter who is your fourth
or fifth in the pecking order, you're behind the three
receivers behind his Sekiel Elliott, and so really at best
(34:03):
your fourth or fifth at the time at as looking
for balls from back, Darwin broke a lot of hearts.
He was a trendy sleeper pick at tight end last year.
And I believe you didn't even play. I think you
heard him Silvan and you didn't even get like a
full game out of him. I think it was early
in wee. That was brutal. Yea, all right, let's talk
running back. This is going to be a really hard
(34:26):
decision for a lot of people. There is so much
steam right now, and Ezekiel Elliott going off the board
right now as running back five and player five, I
think it was five, or do you say somebody else
was five earlier Barkley. But I guess, depending demands where
you're looking, it might be four. Um, in fact, it
might be three. Well, we give it. I should, I should.
I don't have in front of me McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara.
(34:50):
Uh No, I've got him going after he's gone. I
just I do have notes that he's going on Henry.
I've gotten where I was looking fantasy footboll calculator. By
those what I was I was using for this draft
position five for either way. It was at this time
last year that I was like, avoid Zeke at all costs.
I was really nervous about Zeke for a lot of reasons,
and thinks I'm still somewhat concerned, although I'm a lot
(35:11):
warmer on Zeke now than I was last year. At
this time he posted career worst numbers in every Russian category. Um.
But again, the offensive line was really bad last year,
and it comes back healthy this year. The other thing
that we should mention is, by all accounts, Zeke looks great.
And I've seen photos of Zeke. You know he's you know,
(35:33):
he he doesn't like to wear a shirt anyway, and
he does wear a shirt. It's a half shirt because
he wants to show off his abs and he looks good.
Zeke looks like he's taking this offseason very seriously, takes
very good care of that Billy button. Always lind free,
always lind free, when even when you take the offensive
line struggles out of the equation. Though Zeke was not
(35:55):
great last year, get this. Next gen stats showed this.
Zeke had zero point zero seven yards over expectation last year.
Zero point zero seven yards. Ruler to route to figure
out how far that is. That's not the kind of
(36:15):
double O seven you want. No, that is not um.
That tiedem was Zack Moss, and people hate Zack Moss.
So that gives you a sense of where of where
what the Zeke we saw last year. But obviously people
fully expect the bounce back. But here's the reason I'm
still worried. Tony Pollard is the more dynamic back. Paulard
(36:35):
deserves more touches than he's gotten. And just like when
you go back, Pro Football Focus rates rates Pollard better
in pretty much every metric except pass blocking. Zeke is
very good. Pollard for two straight years running. Pro Football
Focus thinks Pollard's the better running and just my eyes,
(36:56):
Pollard is the more dynamic back. There's real risk, and
this is why Zeke is the riskiest player at his
current ADP for the Cowboys at draft position five. I
need a sure thing I do. I don't want to
have this kind of I don't want to have this
hanging over me. Which Zeke am I gonna get? Am
I gonna get lack the lackluster version we saw last year?
(37:18):
Am I gonna get a better one? I don't want
question marks to pick five? And to me, Zeke still
got question marks. I would say he and Dalvin Cook
are the two top running backs that you have to handcuff.
I don't I'm not an advocate of handcuffing all stud
running backs, but those two feel like the one and
then you're reaching around to get that ensure you get
those handcuffs, right, Yeah, I don't like it. So if
(37:39):
Zeke is going at draft position five, how many other
guys are going in that position in that range who
aren't clearly the best player at their own position on
their own team. I mean that's the worry, right, So
I still think there's a lot of risk there. Let's
talk about the play with the most upside compared to
a DP. To me, that's a MARII Cooper. He's wide
receiver four teen and round four. Uh ceedee, lamb going
(38:04):
really right in the same range right now. But Cooper
has just proven to be a workhorse receiver and I
love the fact that they throw to him inside the
five and that's those are cheap, easy touchdowns and I
love that stuff. Um, so yeah, I'm taking Amari Cooper.
Why deceiver fourteen might be a little low with Dak
Prescott coming back? Who's gonna win this division? Washingtonsionavorite right now?
(38:30):
I don't know that Vegas does. In fact, they're thirty
to one to win the Super Bowl. Uh football team
is no, I'm sorry, they're fifty to one to win
the Super Bowl. Um, I think people don't. I think
people just assume Fitzpatrick's no good when I don't. I
don't see it. Cowboys are the odds one. But here's
(38:51):
the thing. Washington has the best defense in the division
by a mile, and maybe the best defense in the league.
They added William Jackson, a very good cornerback, in the
off season, huge upgrade over Ronald Darby. This is is
a really really good defense and we talked about all
the playmakers on offense. Now all Fitzpatrick has to do
(39:13):
get the ball into the hands of his playmakers Curtis
Samuel and Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson and Logan Thomas
and let those guys make plays. And the Eagles plus
five hundred is the worst odds. That seems like the
best bed of them all though, just because in the division,
because the Cowboys Washington in New York, they can implode
any drop of the hat based on what happens to
(39:35):
the front offices. Eagles plus five a Vegas. Put some
money on it for him. I'm going to actually I'm
gonna take Washington to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Never bet the team to win the Super Bowl. Always
just bet them to make the super Bowl because then
you can hatch, just cash cash that out, and if
you still love your team, roll that whole bank forward
(39:58):
on a super Bowl bet. And if you don't love
that team, keep your money or go somewhere in between.
We'll talk off line, but you're gonna have to do
a parlay Chargers a f C champion Justin Herbert m
v P parlay formula. Oh I like that. I like
that should hop onto Well, no, no way. But it's
like if you have not heard me talking, I'm not hoping.
I know you're on, but mom, literally hop on that
(40:20):
ticket with me as well that that I might do.
You already have the Chargers to represent the a f
C ticket, but parlay with Herbert. I mean, if they
get there, of course Ekeler could everywhere. Everything's gonna play
a big role. But if they make it to the
super Bowl, justin Herbert, that could be Um, he's gotta
it's got to figure out a way to to be
(40:41):
a pretty good quarterback in his own division, which is
which is a challenge but possible. Don't let the team
doctor bring a needle anywhere near you. I got Thanks
for listening, appreciate getting to the end of the podcast. Uh.
Next week we'll be back for we'll break down another division.
I don't know which one yet. We've got we still
need NFC South an NFC North. Let's say the North
for last, since we're in Minnesota for last. Uh, talk
(41:04):
to you in a week, everybody, Bye bye. Fantasy Football
Weekly is a production of I Heart Radio. For more
podcasts from my Heart Radio, visit the i heart radio, app,
Apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,
and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now,
here's your host. Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. I'm Paul
(00:23):
charchy in. My co host is Brian Johnson. Welcome back.
Finally you can say welcome back to me. Yeah, I
mean normally you're here again. Yeah, that's usually the case.
Scott Fish filled in admirably for you, and it wasn't
even a filling. I mean, you know you were available.
We just wanted you know, he's a cost in the show.
He gets to come back. You choose the film. I'm
(00:44):
sure he did. Alright, he did, great, he did. Um,
we're gonna break down the NFC East and it we'll
talk through our how we see these offenses functioning for
this season. We've been doing this now, I think six
straight weeks where we've broken down different different divisions and uh,
the NFCUS because it gives us a chance to talk
about some shaky quarterbacking on the whole. But some football teams,
(01:09):
football teams, we're gonna talk about some and I will
be breaking down football team. Because it's Stu Beird, I'm
gonna take the Stupird option. So I've got Washington, You've
got the Giants. Before we jump into the Giants, let
me just remind people I gave you Stu Beird though
we were discussing, we were prepping for the show, and
the first thing I said was you get Stu Beird.
Of course, thank you. We appreciate your yes. Um, and
(01:33):
you got stuck with the team you love to hate,
the Giants. So yeah, the division champions Giants, I forgot
about that. I wait, no, Washington's the division channel. They
didn't matter. They both made the playoffs though, right, No,
that's right. I'm forgetting that the Giants should have won.
They should have well, no one should have won that
(01:54):
division last year anyway, Properly, that's enough reality football. We
jump into the Giants. A reminder gives you Lead dot
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for groups between eight and eighteen teams at Guillotine League
(02:17):
dot com and the forty four team super Chop twelve
twelve team leagues as of right now is about half full.
That's one and you could be a part of history.
That's the flagship super Chop content is cash prizing that.
I think the grand prize is three grand in that one,
if memory serves not bad for a fifty Yeah, that's
(02:41):
that would be. That would be awfully nice. We we
filled up the scott Fish Bowls Super Chop for charity
in a day, in less than a day, like five hours.
I was given last Friday off day off quote unquote
at that day launches and I'm not I don't have
the day off. Then that was awesome. They feel really
fast though, and thank you to everybody that decided to
(03:03):
participate in that. And the fifty dollars that went to
Fantasy Cares was great. Rhodo Wire for the free subscription,
outstanding trophy Smack for the amazing rings that they're producing
for this and really really nice. So let's talk about
the giants. Let's jump in here, and as we've done
for all of our past shows on this again. We're
(03:24):
not recapping last year. We're looking forward for how we
think this offense is going to look. And let's jump
into the Giants. Giants. Uh, last year offense not good
thirty feet and uh thirty one in yards per game
and points per game. Um. Joe Judge makes his return
as head coach his second year. He brings along UH
he's had Jason Garrett into offensive mastermind. Jason Garrett uh
(03:47):
still the offensive coordinator for the g Men. Uh. Let's
start with se Kwan Barkley obviously got to start with Barkley. UH.
The big name of course on the team. Running back
five really player five overall as of right now, it's
either like you, unless it's a super flex league and
one quarterback leagues, you're taking a a top five running
back or Travis Kelsey, which, by the way, it's Travis Kels.
(04:09):
Well now his mom says it's Kelsey, so his mom
would know, so so this thing is still very ambiguous.
We had the bit because my fantasy league would pronounce
it Travis Kels and we used to make fun of that.
The shouty guy was the best bits. Yeah, We're like,
they're so wrong. It's funny, but no, it might be right.
(04:29):
But anyway, UH, if you're not taking Barkley, UH, you
might be taking Kelsey outside of one of the other
big backs. But Barkley injured Week one of last year.
As everyone remembers, UH last season, people are expecting a
full on bounce back. They're banking on it. At ADP five,
we'll talk about him. It's a little more this segment. UH.
And if for handcuffed reasons you're interested. Davante Booker is
(04:51):
the top backup running back, and they also have Corey
Clement who came over from the Eagles, and our rookie
Gary bright Well. But whoever the running back is for
the Giants, the a running behind arguably the worst offensive
line in the NFL. In Pro Football Focus his mind
that ranked thirty seconds going into this season. UH. And
this despite the fact that they have put money and
(05:11):
draft picks towards that line. They have tried, but the
players that they've invested in have not worked out. UH.
They invested a fourth, fourth overall pick in Andrew Thomas
last year, UH flopped at left tackle. UH. Nate Solder,
who was the starting left tackle last year, will probably
move to right tackle. List here does make his return.
He opted out in so that that will help. That
(05:33):
does help a lot. But uh, outside of that, Um,
they have a converted guard playing center. This will be
a second year playing center, and the other two guard
spots right now wide open for competition. The line is
even defined right now, so very worrisome there for the
running game and not only the passing game. Daniel Jones
currently quarterback one, pretty much free in terms of a
(05:54):
starting quarterback. If you wants too high, you mean he
should be going later. You're going later than that. I
mean there are guys after him, like Carson Wentz, I'd
rather roll the dice on, and many you know, many others.
We'll talk about him soon. Ryan Fitzpatrick going after uh,
Daniel Jones. I would take fits nine out of ten
times over Jones and probably Deshaun Watson. The one other
(06:16):
time was also going after Daniel Jones. Worth the lotto
play moral stands aside. Um, Jones does have a shiny
new toy in wide receiver Kenny Golladay, who is the
leader of that pack. Now he's going off the board
as wide receiver wide receiver twenty seven right now, which
seems about right Uh, he's definitely the wide receiver you
(06:37):
want out of this corpse. Uh corps of corps corpse
might be a more pronounced that. It's actually a deep
set of receiver Sterling Shepherd. The problem, I think because
it's too many Sterling Shepherd, Darius Layton. You can get them. Well,
then if you're drafted Darius Tony, a rookie that some
people are excited about from a redraft. Respect don't like
(06:58):
this landing spot. He's he's dead to me there um,
But yeah, giants wide receivers do not did not produce
last year. Granted Golliday wasn't there, but they were bottom
made and catches bottom four and yards and touchdowns at
the position. I'm just kind of out on this whole
whole pass game at the wide receiver, even Holiday, who
in theory should immediately become the alpha. We see a
(07:20):
lot of times even very good receivers first year on
new teams struggle. I just and there's just too many
balls to go around, including Barkley, Evan Ingram, Sterling Shepherd, Tony.
It's just you know, slat and there's just so many
guys that need to get fed. I worry about Golliday
getting appropriate usage here. I'm with you, and the Giants
(07:40):
actually have a very good defense, you know, so I
don't I don't know if they're gonna be giving up
a ton of points, so I don't know how active.
If they're really wanting to win games, I mean they are,
but I don't know how many they're gonna win. It's
gonna be more good defense, ball control with Barkley, that's
gonna be the recipe for success. And you just mentioned
Evan Ingram. Let's talk about him and I might as
well throw in the He is my highest upside player
(08:02):
for the Giants right now. He has underachieved so far
in his career, to say the least, just thirteen touchdowns
across four seasons. Of course, he plays all sixteen games
last year for the first time in his career, scores
one touchdown God, the only tight end touchdown for the Giants.
But man, the Giants do utilize their tight ends a lot.
(08:24):
They're they've been top eleven and catches for three straight years,
usually a focal point of the offense. But Kyle Rodolf,
is there a really good red zone end zone target?
And I worry that this could be another one to
three touchdown season for Evan Ingram. But right now it
tight end fourteen. I mean he's gone like tight end
(08:46):
six five, like his a DP and now the bottom
has fallen out finally maybe he puts it all together.
Still a freakish athlete, he's showing flashes of brilliance. Of
course he's had some some bad drops. But at tight
end fourteen right now, if you're missing out on the
Big three or four, however you want a group of
those guys. There's top six seven potential here for Ingram.
(09:07):
If you can put it all together in a tight
end fourteen, that's a virtually free uh, if you're looking
at your starting tight end and to the riskiest player,
it's pretty obvious. And he's a top five pick if
he gets hurt like he did last year, year done
before and the year before, and of course everyone is
at risk of injury, but uh, obvious a little concerned.
(09:29):
They don't like fully unleashed him out of the gate either.
When the season starts, you know, like people are thinking
thirty touches, I'm thinking more seven team twenty worlcome back
a little bit. I know he's a freak of nature.
He's still very young, very much in the prime of
his career. But I don't know top five pick, it's
it's too risky for me. He's not he's not locked
(09:52):
or produced. E've been taking DeVante Booker late in a
lot of drafts, even if you don't have Barkley right
not right now. I don't have Barkley at any I
don't have any shares of Barkley and across any of
my draft. So I would almost argue, if you have
Barkley not to take Booker. Booker will be serviceable. But
if Barkley goes down, you're pretty much done. But if
you don't know in Barkley and you get the starting
(10:13):
the Giants, but uh that's but uh yeah, that's all.
That's all we have to say for the Giants, other
than I hope Gettleman Dave Gettleman finally gets fired after
this season. I think it will happen. I hope. So
for Washington football team, they get competent quarterbacking for the
first time in years, and this team is said to
(10:35):
improve significantly over last year. Brian, you're gonna hear a
lot of optimism. This team finished twenty fifth points last year.
Twenty yards. I think they're going to be closer to
top twelve top fourteen in both of those categories. So
let's start with Ryan Fitzpatrick, your new starter, although we'll
mention uh Taylor Heineke looked pretty darn good at the
(10:55):
end of last year. But Fitzpatrick goes in as the starter,
and he played well last year, and his benching for
to a Toungo violoa should not be viewed as a
reflection of Fitzpatrick's play. And you know, I'm gonna give
you some numbers here that really I think will will
help demonstrate why he's going to be very valuable here,
and especially compared to recent Washington quarterbacks. You know, Fitzpatrick
(11:19):
impressed the ball upfield. He finished eleventh in completed air
yards last year, in eighth in yards per attempt. And
this despite last year he had the second shortest time
to throw and he still finished eighth and yards pert tempt.
I mean that guy hung tough in the pocket and
delivered downfield. Last year. He ranked number one in aggressiveness,
(11:41):
which is next next. Jen stats is calculation for a
pastor's willingness to throw into tight coverage. I like that
about him. He's always been this way. He'll take the
periodic pick if it means that he can get the
ball towards his best receivers. Fitzpatrick led the league in
on target a percentage in balls thrown twenty yards or
(12:03):
longer last year. He was good last year, and they
mentioned him anyway, the Dolphins would have made the playoffs.
I'm convinced that they kept him there for sure. All
we needed was one more win his He had six
his sixty five completion percentage. People think that he's a
very errand thrower, but he completed six of his passes.
Aaron Rodgers completed sixty six, so I really think that's
(12:26):
not accurate either. He was next gent Stats seventh ranked
quarterback in completions above expectation. So you're all that together anything,
And I've got more on him later. So let's go
to Let's go to his receiving targets, beginning with Terry
mcterry McLaurin sitting on a breakout season. He's already really
(12:47):
good despite the terrible quarterbacking they've had. Um, how bad
was it last year? Mclauren was seventy five in catchable
target rate. Last year seventy five among why receivers and
catchable targets. Now with Fitzpatrick, he's going to see way
more downfield opportunities. Fitzpatrick's a dot has been the top three, sorry,
(13:10):
top ten for three straight years, so we're gonna see
McLaurin work downfield much more. I love that opportunity for him. Um.
Fitzpatrick's number one wide receiver, so his top wide receiver.
His averaged one hundred forty two targets per season when
Fitzpatrick has started ten or more games, which he has
projected to do. Here, if we put Terry McLaren on
(13:33):
one forty two targets, he will be a top ten
wide receiver this year easily. McLaren played a whopping eight
per cent of the team's plays last year, so obviously
I love mclauren. Curtis Samuel gets reunited with Ron Rivera
and Scott Turner, who know him very well from Carolina.
He'll presumably read that jack of all trades guy that
(13:55):
he has been for Carolina. UM, but now with the
best quarterbacking of his career, and he's reunited with Terry McLaurin,
who they went. Isn't that fun? Um? You know, so
you know it's gonna be the same we did to
we do. Just say that Fitzpatrick loves to feed his
number one and that's going to continue to be the
case here. Um, but Samuel figures to be the number
(14:18):
two receiver in this offense, and they're gonna run him
some and do some other stuff with him. I think
you'll get a lot of high and low stuff. Let
me note this. He ran predominantly from the slot last year,
but under Scott Turner in Carolina Curtis Samuel lined up
outside much more often. And I think he's going to
(14:38):
be an outside receiver for this team because Adam Humphries
is going to man the slot and he'll likely be
on the field more than people realize because people in
their minds still think Samuel, like last year, is gonna
be predominantly slot. I don't think he is. I think
he's gonna go outside much more so. Um. He Humphries
got cut from the Titans. He was two years into
a four year deal, and that's you that was worrisome
(15:00):
that they didn't decide to keep him, and he had
the concussions last year. But um, you could play him
in a PPR situation only and sort of pick your spots.
He played with Fitzpatrick and Tampa for what it's worth,
But I don't think Humphries is anything more than the
last last pick of your draft kind of guy, or
some of you pick up off the waiver wire. Rookie
(15:21):
Diemi Brown is there. He's a speedcer with deep speed,
and we do have a deep armed quarterback here, so
he might be somebody who could you could throw a
dart at from time to time. But there's also Campsen's
and Antonio Golden Gandy and Kelvin Harmon, and there's other guys.
Stevens sim City. I like that it is sim City
with two Sims on the team. Uh. Tight end Logan
(15:44):
Thomas is fascinating. So he had the improbable path as
a college quarterback turned tight end turned journeyman, bouncing around
from team to team to team, and then last year
he's on the field for Washington's plays. And he was
a pro drafted as a pro quarterback. But Cardinals, that's
like the fourth quarterback. He wasn't like signed as a
free Asian or anything like that. He was drafted to
(16:04):
play quarterback. Didn't work out and do his credit. I mean,
he's managed to stay in the league and Lions gave
up on him, and then now he's turned into a
very good tight end. Over the final eleven games of
last year, he finished with per game averages of five catches,
fifty one yards and half a touchdown per game. That's
pretty solid, lead the team in red zone targets. There's
downside here though, because again Fitzpatrick feeds his number one
(16:28):
Curtis Samuel's now there, Adam Humphries now there. They dat
drafted Diamie Brown. I think there's some downside on Logan Thomas.
I don't think he's gonna get quite as much usage,
quite as many balls, but he's he's still I still
probably make sense about where he's going in most fantasy drafts.
As currently as tight ends eight off the board. Yeah,
he's you know, it's the big three. And then he
(16:50):
got Hockinson, got Art and uh Kyle Pitts and then
it gets scared to that. Then it's then it starts
with Logan Thomas, and I don't like him being the guy.
I'm kind of avoiding that situation. But as good as
he was last year, if you told me I get
five catches fifty have a touchdoff from him that I'm
definitely in, which is what he did in the second
(17:12):
half last year. Let's go to the running back position.
Everybody's high in Antonio Gibson at this point, including me
his abilities. I think we're overlooked by many last year.
But I think given the off season of reflection, people
have gone back and looked at his body of work
last year and realized Antonio Gibson was really good. He
was Pro Football Focus his sixth ranked running back last year.
(17:34):
Derrick Henry led the NFL and miss tackles. Antonio Gibson
tied him in miss tackles per carry. That's pretty impressive,
Pretty impressive, the team repeatedly said last as repeatedly said
in the offseason, They're gonna throw to him more, as
you probably remember at Tuni with Gibson's converted wide out
(17:54):
and so that makes sense. I think he will. I
think that will end up happening, and that will end
up dink J. D. McKissick, whose only real value to
fantasy fans is fantasy players, is as a PPR back.
I read a report today, uh from NBC Sports Edge
whatever Rhodo World's called now about how he's put on
muscle though, put on some weight kiss and now that
(18:15):
he's gonna take the job from Antonio Gibson. But have
given the opportunity, he might be more than he could
be the full on bell cow backup for Gibsons. That
could make sense. Uh, here's the real problem for Antonio Gibson.
His pass blocking is awful. ProFootball Focus ranked him sixty
one at the position. There are only three qualified runners
(18:36):
who ranked lower than Antonio Gibson, and he we need
him to be on the field and third down if
we want to see the past catching get better and
then the receiving numbers go up. So he's got to
get better than that riskiest player. His current ADPs loan
Logan Thomas, who as I mentioned earlier, he's going off
the board and round seven. Last year there were only
three viable targets on the whole team. This year there
(18:56):
might be six, so I think his numbers are could
potentially go down. The player with the most upside, we're
back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, quarterback twenty six right now. Had
Fitzpatrick been allowed to play the full season in Miami,
he was on track for four thousand one d passing yards,
(19:17):
twenty seven and a half touchdowns, thirty three thirty rushing
yards and five rushing touchdowns. His closest comparable quarterback Justin Herbert.
Justin Herbert's ADPs quarterback six. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who put up
again was on a per game basis. Is putting the
same numbers as Justin herbert Is ADP is six too cheap.
(19:39):
Too cheap. Hopefully you will not be too cheap to
consider the sponsors that you were about to hear. As
we take a break, we come back, we'll talk about
the Philadelphia e goals eight, an offense in a great
deal of transition. We'll tell you how we feel about
them in moments. Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Giargie
and Brian Johnson. We you, let's talk about the Eagles.
(20:03):
There may be no more player with upside and downside
then Jalen Hurts. If he can be a good enough
passer to hold that job all year and continue running
like he did last year, he has top five fantasy
quarterback in him. But if his passing stays at the
(20:25):
level it was last year, Brian, I can't tell you
he even finishes the season as the start. Yeah, well, uh,
we'll certainly talk about the upside and downside of Jalen
Hurts a little more. But like you mentioned, a lot
of change going on in Philly. A new head coach,
Nick Sirianni, the former offensive coordinator for the Colts. They
also have a new offensive coordinator, Shane Stiken, who is
the former O C for the Chargers. So a lot
(20:47):
of changes on the sidelines for Philly. Um, we're not
good in terms of yards per game in points per
game last year respectively. That was a lot of Carson
Wentzlough and not Jalen Hurts of course. Uh. Well, and
again that offensive line just amated by injury, and we'll
talk about the line a little more as well. Uh,
Philly did rank top eight in past play percentage passed
(21:09):
the ball over of the time, very past friendly offense. UM.
For Jalen Hurt's sake and his past catchers, hopefully that
remains the same. But I let's talk about the running,
the running game and Miles Sanders, who's had a somewhat tortuous,
tortuous tortuous in the league, especially from a fantasy perspective.
Big weeks down weeks just very inconsistent, even when it
(21:33):
just comes from his usage and touches per game. Just
six h rushing touchdowns last year's zero receiving touchdowns right now,
going off the board as RB eighteen, just after the
DeAndre Swifts and j K. Dobbins of the world. But
I don't know if I like that spot for Sanders
and Redraft. I like guys like Chris Carson David Montgomery
(21:54):
who are going after Sanders. Uh, just from the safety
Here's why I kind of like Sanders. Everybody's so down
on him. A DP is really depressed, and that offensive line,
when healthy is actually quite good. So I'm kind of
interested in Sanders this year. The So let's talk about
the line. It's been elite for years. The Eagles have
(22:15):
had a very good offensive line, and it fell off
a lot last year because of injury and and they're
they're stars are falling a little bit. Right tackle Lane
Johnson and center Jason Kelse is he kels or is
he kills he too? He's gotta bell. They might be
past their their prime by a pinch, but they're still
still very good players. Uh. They did invest a nineteen
(22:37):
first round pick and left tackle Andre Dillard, but he
has yet to live up to expectations. They do get
back the Eagles, that is right guard Brandon Brooks, who
missed all of that'll help. He was Pro Football Focused
hot Pro Football Focus his highest graded guard in twenty
nineteen and he missed all of last year, so the
line much improved they are. They are only ranks seventeenth
(22:57):
by Pro Football Focus going into the season, but if
it stays intact, it could return to its glory days
and UH help boost Miles Sanders into top twelve RB territory.
But he's very much a coin flip and very much
a contestant or a finalist for the highest downside. For
give you another reason that I'm optimistic here. You know
Doug Peterson's gone. Peterson used a maddening running back by
(23:20):
committee that oftentimes was not reflective of who the best
runners were, and Sanders is the best runner. But we
know Nick Sirianni won't do that in the Colts. That's
kind of very much so it I agree it is,
but it's a but it's an opportunity for it for
Sanders to um to get more work than he had,
and I think there's a decent chance he does here
(23:42):
you would you would hope to think he does. And
just for the sake of mentioning Boston, Scott will be
the primary backup. He has filled in admirably, admirably in
the past, and they do. They did sign carry On
Johnson for those wondering if he's still in the league
and drafted, Uh, Kenneth Gainwell, I think in the fourth
round as a he's a rookie. Uh. Tailing off the
running back commy there. Uh So let's go to the
passing game and Jalen Hurts the other big name in Philly.
(24:04):
Uh inside the overall top eighty five players currently quarterback
nine in most formats, going right after Aaron Rodgers, before
Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Burrow. A lot
of faith being put in Jalen Hurts. Uh. But like
you said, he he was great last year. But but
the sample was small. We'll we'll dive into Hurts just
a little bit more in a second. Let's talk about
(24:26):
his receivers really quick. And when you start with the
Philly receivers, you really have to start with the tight
ends and not the wide receivers. And for at the moment.
As of right now, the tight ends are both Dallas
Goddard and zach Ertz. Zach Ertz is still an Eagle. Uh.
The Eagles have always used their tight ends a ton,
always ranking near the top of all relevant fantasy stats.
(24:47):
Richard Rodgers and Jason Croom were catching tight ends catching
touchdowns for the Philly for the Eagles last year at
tight end. Uh. The real history has Sirianni comes from
India where they use multiple tight ends all the time too.
You know, the recent history for the Philly tight ends
has gone from all zach Ertz to kind of a
fifty fifty Earth's got her platoon, but the torch is
(25:08):
certainly getting passed to god Heart now currently tight ends
seven going after all the big names, and again Ertz
is there for now at tight end twenty one. I'm
thank him leaving. I am too, I you know, I
like taking Art's late and then I just think they're
gonna end up moving him someplace. Now, you know, where
they move him may not be a desirable spot, but
presumably any team that's gonna trade whatever it costs to
(25:30):
get zach Ertz and Earth's wants to be well paid
to um you know that's gonna pay him and trade
the equity for him. Presumably they're going to use him.
Buffalo was the primary landing spot that we've heard about. Yeah,
I would love that, but anyway, we'll see what happens
with Earth's. As for the wide receivers, not very exciting.
I'm gonna talk about DeVante Smith very quickly. He's the
(25:51):
only one I'm gonna mention. I'm not gonna talk about
Jalen reagor Travis Folgum. I'm not going there in drafts.
Maybe they start producing in the season, I'll ad him
off the waiver. Why but they're they're not draftable in
my mind, not even Reager, even though he has a
draftable a DP at one sixty two, people are drafting him.
I would not. DeVante Smith is my highest upside player.
He's a rookie wide receiver forty right now, but he's
(26:12):
the top wide receiver on this team. Not the top receiver.
That would be Dallas Goddard. But uh, one of the
most exciting wide receivers ever to play college football. Is
absolutely dominated. Won the Heisman, almost won the national championship
on his own. It's quite simply he's if he's the
top target at wide receiver on a team that's top
eight in passing play percentage, and if Jalen Hurts can
keep it clicking. If you're getting Devonte Smith at wide
(26:34):
receiver forty, I'm not comparing to Randy Moss. People concerned,
well from the Thinness factor a little bit, but you know,
there are a lot of concerns with Randy Moss go
into his rookie year. There are a lot of concerns
with Devonte Smith. He could throw all those out the
window and just be a phenom right out of the game.
And wide receiver forty, I'll roll the dice there, And
(26:55):
unlike Jalen Waddle, Um, you know who who's going, I
don't know about if team picks ahead of him, twelve
picks ahead of him, you know that offense, that passing
offense is largely going to go through Smith, and you
know that's that's there's a certain amount of appeal to
that for those that need productivity from him this year.
And lastly, it was either you know, Miles Sanders or
(27:16):
Jalen Hurts as your riskiest player. I guess maybe Dallas
Goddard could have been in the convo, But I'm going
Jalen Hurts if you're taking quarterback. We've said it in
previous pods. It might be the deepest that's ever been
in fantasy. If you're sinking uh, you know, a top
six seven round pick into Jalen Hurts. He has to
pan out, and if he doesn't, yeah, you'll probably feel
(27:36):
uh find someone on the waiveward to back him up.
But you caught it cost yourself a stud at another
position if it Hurts doesn't pan out, So yeah, most
risk I'm with him that um and tons of upside. Definitely,
it all comes down to his passing. He just he
has to be able to pass better than what we
saw last year. He'll give you that rushing floor, but
if his arm doesn't keep him on the field, he's
not gonna be getting any rushing. That's at the end
(27:58):
of the day. It's a passing position and people don't
like to hear that in Fantasy owners and you know,
I get it, but and you're here for the rushing,
but at some point your quarterback has to be able
to pass. Let's go to the Dallas Cowboys. Bryant uh
Dak Prescott returns to lead a high powered offense that
struggled without him. As you already know from last year,
in the four full games he played, he was Fantasy
Football's highest scoring quarterback last year. There's a lot of
(28:20):
optimism for him. He uh he topped four hundred fifty
passing yards in three of his four full games last year.
Four fifty. Dak obviously very good passer, elite weaponry around him,
a very safe fantasy selection despite coming off the ankle.
I think the question is, though, on this rebuild ankle,
(28:41):
are they going to run him as much? I mean,
much of his fantasy upside had come from these combo
games where you know, he ran for forty five yards
and maybe a touchdown and he threw for two eighty
or three thirty and a couple of scores, and you know,
in combination, those are really good Dak Prescott games. Just
to unclear as to whether or not that rebuilt ankle
(29:03):
is going to allow him to produce the same kind
of rushing numbers and if Mike McCarthy will allow him
to have the same kind of rushing numbers. I'm not
too worried about the ability, but yeah, they're not going
to force it as much as they did in the past.
I think that's true. Let's talk about the offensive line
because that's much of the story with Dallas this year.
Offensive line decimated by injury last year, but should return
(29:24):
to I'm not calling the elite status because I don't
think we're that level for these Cowboys anymore. But this
could be a top ten offensive line. It was only
two years ago they were the number one line with
a bullet that's in most people's minds. Yeah, it's an
aging Uh, there's it's a somewhat aging line in spots
like left tackle Tyrone Smith returns he missed almost the
(29:45):
entire season last year. Their right tackle l Collins returns
after missing oh of last year with a hip injury.
Zack Martin, the right guard is elite. The left guard
is Connor Williams, a solid, not splashy player. Center is
pretty big question mark. Travis Frederick had to retire, of course.
Is most people know um Tyler Biadaz I believe is
(30:08):
how you pronounce his name. He was the starter last year,
he wasn't great, and he's back for this year. A
wide receiver. You already know. It's a total embarrassment of
ridges for the Cowboys. There are three great receivers. They
each are worthy of one hundred targets. They each had
one hundred targets last year. And you know that means
when you when you're spreading a hundred targets out three
(30:29):
different guys. Some games, all right, I know, UM, some
games you're gonna have guys that just don't show up
in the box score as much because the other two
need to get fed. And so that happens. Sometimes. Everybody
believes Ceedee Lamb is going to take a big leap
in year two. I'm I'm certainly on board. In his
four full games with Dak Prescott, which were his first
(30:50):
four NFL games, by the way, So you know, weeks
one through four of last year with Dak Prescott, his
production there put Ceedee Lamb on pace for ninety re receptions,
one thousand, four hundred yards and six touchdowns. So ninety
three catches for rookie, that'd be probably it would have
(31:12):
been an amazing season for him. Um. Then Dalton came on,
Lamb season went in the crapper and you know the
story from the rest of that. Um, he's tall, he's
a ranging receiver, surprising burst even though he doesn't have
top end speed, tons of huge broken plays at Oklahoma.
Lamb had the league's second best catch rate last year
on balls twenty yards or longer. And now he gets
(31:36):
a far better, stronger armed quarterback in Dak Prescott ceedee
lamb is um is Is has moved in the eyes
of most people into the teens for his a DP
Among wide receivers, Amari Cooper led the team in every
meaningful statistical category last year, and I'll probably do that
again this year, although it'll be much closer, he said,
(31:58):
career highs and red zone targets. Last year, he converted
twenty seven percent of his red zone receptions into touchdowns.
Cooper got seven targets from inside the five yard line,
which is nuts. That is a lot for a wide receiver.
Seven targets from inside the five yard line. He remains
the safest of the Dallas receivers um, although all the
(32:18):
steam for Lamb makes it close. But I still think Cooper.
If I had to pick one, I would take Cooper slightly,
and I've got them ranked within like two players of
each other, two receivers of each other. I'll mention this
though Cooper underwent ankle surgery in January, didn't participate in
the team's offseason program at all, and he is expected
to be okay for the start of training camp. We'll see.
(32:38):
Then there's Michael Gallup third wheel. Still targeted a hundred
thirteen times last year and a hundred five times the
year before that, or I might have had those backwards.
Actually I think it was hundred five last year. Um.
He's the big body downfield guy that they throw too.
It's the boom er bust stuff. When he gets when
he connects on those deep balls, he's great, and he
scores on those. It's great, but usually it doesn't work out.
(33:00):
In his twelve non touchdown games last year, he averaged
three catches for forty two yards. That's that kills you.
Those basically every time I used him on DraftKings it
was hard pegging those four so temptingly yeah, yeah, Um,
let's go to the tight ends. Blake Jarwin returns after
(33:20):
missing the entire season with an a c L and
the season opener. He he got in some like practice
and O t s and mini camps, expected to be
available for training camp. He's a far He's he's the
much more polished receiver of the two between him and
Dalton Schultz, and I expect him to resume his number
one tight end status that he had going into last year. Um.
(33:41):
Dalton Schultz just is not a is not a special player.
And the tight end position though with either guy, I
think there's some danger and there's a fair amount of
steam on Blake Darwin Um coming back. But in reality,
the tight end position, no matter who is your fourth
or fifth in the pecking order, you're behind the three
receivers behind his Sekiel Elliott, and so really at best
(34:03):
your fourth or fifth at the time at as looking
for balls from back, Darwin broke a lot of hearts.
He was a trendy sleeper pick at tight end last year.
And I believe you didn't even play. I think you
heard him Silvan and you didn't even get like a
full game out of him. I think it was early
in wee. That was brutal. Yea, all right, let's talk
running back. This is going to be a really hard
(34:26):
decision for a lot of people. There is so much
steam right now, and Ezekiel Elliott going off the board
right now as running back five and player five, I
think it was five, or do you say somebody else
was five earlier Barkley. But I guess, depending demands where
you're looking, it might be four. Um, in fact, it
might be three. Well, we give it. I should, I should.
I don't have in front of me McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara.
(34:50):
Uh No, I've got him going after he's gone. I
just I do have notes that he's going on Henry.
I've gotten where I was looking fantasy footboll calculator. By
those what I was I was using for this draft
position five for either way. It was at this time
last year that I was like, avoid Zeke at all costs.
I was really nervous about Zeke for a lot of reasons,
and thinks I'm still somewhat concerned, although I'm a lot
(35:11):
warmer on Zeke now than I was last year. At
this time he posted career worst numbers in every Russian category. Um.
But again, the offensive line was really bad last year,
and it comes back healthy this year. The other thing
that we should mention is, by all accounts, Zeke looks great.
And I've seen photos of Zeke. You know he's you know,
(35:33):
he he doesn't like to wear a shirt anyway, and
he does wear a shirt. It's a half shirt because
he wants to show off his abs and he looks good.
Zeke looks like he's taking this offseason very seriously, takes
very good care of that Billy button. Always lind free,
always lind free, when even when you take the offensive
line struggles out of the equation. Though Zeke was not
(35:55):
great last year, get this. Next gen stats showed this.
Zeke had zero point zero seven yards over expectation last year.
Zero point zero seven yards. Ruler to route to figure
out how far that is. That's not the kind of
(36:15):
double O seven you want. No, that is not um.
That tiedem was Zack Moss, and people hate Zack Moss.
So that gives you a sense of where of where
what the Zeke we saw last year. But obviously people
fully expect the bounce back. But here's the reason I'm
still worried. Tony Pollard is the more dynamic back. Paulard
(36:35):
deserves more touches than he's gotten. And just like when
you go back, Pro Football Focus rates rates Pollard better
in pretty much every metric except pass blocking. Zeke is
very good. Pollard for two straight years running. Pro Football
Focus thinks Pollard's the better running and just my eyes,
(36:56):
Pollard is the more dynamic back. There's real risk, and
this is why Zeke is the riskiest player at his
current ADP for the Cowboys at draft position five. I
need a sure thing I do. I don't want to
have this kind of I don't want to have this
hanging over me. Which Zeke am I gonna get? Am
I gonna get lack the lackluster version we saw last year?
(37:18):
Am I gonna get a better one? I don't want
question marks to pick five? And to me, Zeke still
got question marks. I would say he and Dalvin Cook
are the two top running backs that you have to handcuff.
I don't I'm not an advocate of handcuffing all stud
running backs, but those two feel like the one and
then you're reaching around to get that ensure you get
those handcuffs, right, Yeah, I don't like it. So if
(37:39):
Zeke is going at draft position five, how many other
guys are going in that position in that range who
aren't clearly the best player at their own position on
their own team. I mean that's the worry, right, So
I still think there's a lot of risk there. Let's
talk about the play with the most upside compared to
a DP. To me, that's a MARII Cooper. He's wide
receiver four teen and round four. Uh ceedee, lamb going
(38:04):
really right in the same range right now. But Cooper
has just proven to be a workhorse receiver and I
love the fact that they throw to him inside the
five and that's those are cheap, easy touchdowns and I
love that stuff. Um, so yeah, I'm taking Amari Cooper.
Why deceiver fourteen might be a little low with Dak
Prescott coming back? Who's gonna win this division? Washingtonsionavorite right now?
(38:30):
I don't know that Vegas does. In fact, they're thirty
to one to win the Super Bowl. Uh football team
is no, I'm sorry, they're fifty to one to win
the Super Bowl. Um, I think people don't. I think
people just assume Fitzpatrick's no good when I don't. I
don't see it. Cowboys are the odds one. But here's
(38:51):
the thing. Washington has the best defense in the division
by a mile, and maybe the best defense in the league.
They added William Jackson, a very good cornerback, in the
off season, huge upgrade over Ronald Darby. This is is
a really really good defense and we talked about all
the playmakers on offense. Now all Fitzpatrick has to do
(39:13):
get the ball into the hands of his playmakers Curtis
Samuel and Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson and Logan Thomas
and let those guys make plays. And the Eagles plus
five hundred is the worst odds. That seems like the
best bed of them all though, just because in the division,
because the Cowboys Washington in New York, they can implode
any drop of the hat based on what happens to
(39:35):
the front offices. Eagles plus five a Vegas. Put some
money on it for him. I'm going to actually I'm
gonna take Washington to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Never bet the team to win the Super Bowl. Always
just bet them to make the super Bowl because then
you can hatch, just cash cash that out, and if
you still love your team, roll that whole bank forward
(39:58):
on a super Bowl bet. And if you don't love
that team, keep your money or go somewhere in between.
We'll talk off line, but you're gonna have to do
a parlay Chargers a f C champion Justin Herbert m
v P parlay formula. Oh I like that. I like
that should hop onto Well, no, no way. But it's
like if you have not heard me talking, I'm not hoping.
I know you're on, but mom, literally hop on that
(40:20):
ticket with me as well that that I might do.
You already have the Chargers to represent the a f
C ticket, but parlay with Herbert. I mean, if they
get there, of course Ekeler could everywhere. Everything's gonna play
a big role. But if they make it to the
super Bowl, justin Herbert, that could be Um, he's gotta
it's got to figure out a way to to be
(40:41):
a pretty good quarterback in his own division, which is
which is a challenge but possible. Don't let the team
doctor bring a needle anywhere near you. I got Thanks
for listening, appreciate getting to the end of the podcast. Uh.
Next week we'll be back for we'll break down another division.
I don't know which one yet. We've got we still
need NFC South an NFC North. Let's say the North
for last, since we're in Minnesota for last. Uh, talk
(41:04):
to you in a week, everybody, Bye bye. Fantasy Football
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