June 30, 2023 • 42 mins
There are plenty of stars in the NFC and AFC North, but which ones are worth their ADP price? Brian and Charch break down the eight North teams and identify the best (and worst) values.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and
whatever stupid stuff they decide to drop into the show. Now,
here's your host, Paul Chargian.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
It's Fantasy Football Weekly. I am Paul Charchie, and my
co host, as has been the case for most of
these off season episodes, Brian Johnson.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Hey, Hey charch Happy fourth of July.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Yeah, I love the fourth of July weekend.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Do you really?
Speaker 1 (00:35):
Yeah, I do.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
I had a sense we're just talking off air about it.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
And yeah, Minnesota is a very unique case. And I
don't want to bore people too much Minnesota centric stuff,
but in Minnesota, like half the population owns a cabin
in the north half of Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
Or they know La so they know someone who.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
Or knows somebody right, So much of the Twin Cities
just empties to the north. And I love being in
town where there's no traffic. The restaurants are aren't crowded,
the movie theaters aren't crowded. Everything I want to do
is got less people in it.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
We are in lockstep there. Love Yeah, that part is fantasic,
going up North Way too much riff raff. I just
hate fireworks. I'm not like, not like the big organized ones.
You want to go sit in traffic and walk out
to the field of the brit Fine.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
You're not interested in the in the fire cracker, the
Roman candle.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
The people across the border for those who don't know,
in Wisconsin you can buy the real deal. Well, yeah,
I hate the good stuff, especially people that are lighting
them off at two am.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Yeah, you can give out the thoughtful about that stuff.
But what if people it's ten o'clock on the fourth
of July, game on? I mean, that's that's your problem.
Not there so that time they breaking the law.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
Oh they're not, aren't they.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
No? I guess a lot of fireworks when you do it, those.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
Things are like weapons of mass destruction.
Speaker 1 (01:54):
And bring it on, baby. I love that stuff. I
love it now.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
I'll tell you I don't not wait until the fifth
of July.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
Here's what I don't like about fireworks. And it's the
only thing for me is I am one of those
people that mosquitoes love me. They've got my scent, I've
got the blood type they love and So if you're
outside watching some big fireworks thing, the mosquitoes find me first,
and I can't you know, in the twenty minutes it
(02:20):
takes to get through the whole fireworks display regimen, I've
got like forty mosquito bites. And I'm not kidding. I
mean just it's like every few seconds, I'm getting a bite.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
I love the people that take pictures or videos of
the fireworks, like you're ever gonna go back and look
at that.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
It just doesn't work.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
Check out the picture of this firework. You really have
to be there.
Speaker 1 (02:41):
But it's like concerts. It's like the people who filmed
the concerts. It doesn't work that way.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
Just enjoy the moment with your eyeballs.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
Exactly because it's not going to translate and it won't
mean it's like one tenth is good. Later, all right,
let's speak of Minnesota. Yeah, hey, let's break down the
off seasons and the forecasting for the NFC North and
the AFC North.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
We're gonna close it out, right, Yeah, So we've.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
Already done all the other divisions and this is our
these are our last divisions to do the norths which
also I think that you know the key part of this,
in addition is getting up to speed on some of
the kiopsis moves, is really identifying the players that are
getting drafted wrong right now based on current ADP. And
let's uh, why don't we start in I don't know, Uh,
(03:27):
I want to do Green Bay. Uh sure, I think
that that is you, that is me? Yeah, how about Detroit?
Speaker 3 (03:32):
Yeah, we can go to Detroit.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
To Detroit. They're they're the favored by a mile. They're
the Vegas favorite to win.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
The NFC North but wide open in my opinion. But yes,
Detroit are the favorites. Those are the times we are
living in. It's kind of crazy. The Lions also one
of the teams with the most turnover on offense this offseason.
Major moves in their backfield. Jamal Williams last year is
leading munch down leader. Yeah, Russier gone in New Orleans now.
(03:58):
DeAndre Swift trade to the Eagles, So in comes David
Montgomery to likely assume the Jamal Williams role, and they
drafted rookie Jamier Gibbs with the thirteenth overall pick for
major draft capital sunk into Gibbs, who's expected to play
this hybrid running back receiver role. I will see how
(04:19):
that pans out, but it's really going to be a
Montgomery with the early down work. It looks like in
Gibbs he'll play most downs, but certainly the third down
specialist you would think coming out of the backfield at
wide receiver. DJ Shark left via free agency. Back home
comes Marvin Jones to the Lions fo year old Marvin Jones.
(04:41):
Jamison Williams not really an off season move, but he
made a move with his finger on his phone in
the facility where he made a bet.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Yep, And it wasn't even in the facility. I think
it was in away game hotel. It's where he plays
the bet. And now he's out six.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
But that's considered, you know, like yeah off, you know,
that's like a traveling team. But anyway, he'll miss the
first six games. We'll talk about the wide receiver situation
a little more in a minute or two. Lions also
drafted tight end Sam Laporta out of Iowa in the
second round. He's expected to either starting tight end going
into the season, and Hendon Hooker drafted to back up. Well,
(05:21):
I don't know if he's not gonna be the initial
backup for Jared Goff, but he's he's an intriguing diynasty
Stats twenty twenty four definitely not this year. We won't
expect much from Hooker. Will the offense be better or
worse than last year? It was top top five offense
last year. I'm gonna say about the same. But Jami
(05:43):
or Gibbs is a huge update potentially with the Jamison
Williams suspension. Granted, he'll missed a lot of last year,
but he came on strong at the end of the year.
You know you need eight catches THEA. But he'll miss
the first six games. But it's not gonna get any worse.
We'll put it that way. It's gonna I'll go with better,
but it's not going to get worse, even though there's
(06:04):
a lot of changes on that offense. To me, the
most underdrafted player right now is David Montgomery. I agreed
at running back twenty six eighty fourth overall. I mean,
Jamal Williams seventeen touchdowns last year, and it's not like
Montgomery's automatically slated for seventeen touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
He won't get seventeen, but he's gonna he could get
double digit. But even if he gets roughly half that,
so you put him on nine, that's a touchdown every
other game. And then for Montgomery.
Speaker 3 (06:30):
Running back twenty six, I'll take that all day. And
Jamior Gibbs the most overdrafted to me at running back fourteen,
going forty first overall, you're getting, you know, a fifty
percent discount on Montgomery, who I suspect is going to
score more touchdowns total, more yards.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
I don't well about the yard I don't agree with
you on the yards at all, but I'm with you
on the touchdowns and Gibb. What worries me about Gibbs
is there's a real path for Gibbs to have like
a five touchdown season like DeAndre Swift right where he's
not gonna get goal line work. He needs to score
from distance, which he'll do a few times. You know,
he'll he's gonna Gibbs is going to be a guy
that's gonna roll up. It'll have a couple of long
(07:09):
runs or whatever, but he's gonna roll up what five
ish catches a game for forty yards. So he's gonna
get you like nine fantasy points right there on full
PPR for sure, for sure.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
PPR Dings standard big ding right much. I'm with you.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
I just don't think the touchdowns are going to be
there for Gibbs to get all the way up to
be running back fourteen. But I do think that's in
a full PPR. Running Back fourteen to me isn't far
off of where he should be.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
No, not in full PPR. No.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
Now let's go to the Vikings off season moves that matter.
For the Vikings. They released Adam Thelen replaced him with
first round pick Jordan Addison. Theeling by many metrics, took
a big step backwards last year, including his cushion rate,
his separation rate, yards after catching me, just a lot
of things that really suggested Thelon was at the end
(08:00):
of a very good career. And then, of course they
released Dalvin Cook outright, and they replaced him with nobody knew,
but did resign Alexander Madison to a two year deal.
We'll talk more about him in a few minutes. This
offense will trend similar to last year, when the Vikings
finished eighth in points, sixth in yards. Dalvin Cook wasn't
great anymore last year, but the overall running back depth
(08:21):
chart takes a step back clearly Without Dalvin Cook, the
passing game is going to miss the sure hands of feeling,
but they gained the big play threat of a young
Jordan Addison, which is very exciting. Kirk Cousins will be
thirty five this season. Maybe this is the season where
he starts to show his age, but we didn't see
really any signs of that last year. He looked very
much last year like the quarterback he had been for
(08:42):
the past several years, and so Kirk still seems like
a very safe, bankable guy. So I think this team
trends about the same as last year.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Cousins isn't a guy that I'm concerned about age now.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
It doesn't feel like it doesn't like.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
When we get into the his late thirties, he feels
like a guy w's gonna play itu ttill he's forty, Like, Yeah,
I don't know, because he's not a mobile quarterback, so
we're not really relying on his yeah athleticism that he's
been very reliable in his career so far.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
So the most overdrafted player I think is Alexander Madison,
going off the board at running back nineteen sixty first overall,
and he certainly enters training camp atop the depth chart
at the running back position. But this is way more
of an open battle than people realize. Alexander Madison is
a lackluster runner by many different metrics. He is as
(09:29):
they say, he's a jag. He is just a guy.
He's got subpar vision, He's not very good laterally, he's
a mediocre receiver. The burst is not particularly notable. There's
a lot of things about his game that I find
to be very, very average, and I see Madison as
the most likely Week one starter. But if he doesn't
really produce, I think Kevin O'Connell's going to start working
(09:52):
in some of the depth chart guys like ty Chandler
and maybe Dwayne McBride who they took late in the draft.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
So I think a lot of teams are going to
me mixing in three running backs in the Vikings are
certainly one of them. Yeah, people are just assuming Madison's
is going to get the old person.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
That he's just gonna take Dalvin Cook's touches.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
I'll believe it when I see it. Maybe I'm not
thinking that either.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
The most underdrafted player related to Madison, ty Chandler, you
can get him basically free He's going off the board
at pick two oh one. He's splashed last year in
the preseason, but couldn't get on the field ahead of
Cook in Madison. But Cook's gone and now ty Chandler's
the sophomore and has the potential to get a lot better.
(10:35):
He's the best pass catcher among Viking running backs, and
he is a big play home run hitter. Going off
the board at running back sixty one right now. So
you got a lot of opportunity with ty Chandler as
a last pick of your draft dart throw, and he
might just turn out to inherit that job from Alexander
Madison at some point, maybe early in the season.
Speaker 3 (10:55):
Yeah, I've been drafting a lot of ty Chandler.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
Let's talk about the Chicago Bears.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
Brian the Bear's a lot of moves in the office.
He's in, not a ton of exciting moves. The most
exciting move was they traded the first overall pick to
the Panthers for a package including DJ Moore, who's arguably
the best wide receiver in Bears history already.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
Wow, that's a great question, actually.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
Except Bernard Barry in that one year.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
Yeah, Brandon, what's his Bran Mash had a couple of.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
Good years, but that really hasn't been a ton to
talk about the wide receiver position, So yeah, DJ Moore
will definitely bolster that pass attack. The Bears also signed
former panther Dante Forman, he was in part of that
that trade, to a one year deal. We mentioned David
Montgomery gone from Chicago, so he will compete for touches
with Khalil Herbert who's already in town. And the Bears
(11:48):
also drafted running back Roshawn Johnson out of Texas in
the fourth round. A guy we like you a lot we know,
or a good buddy. Thor loves him. Johnson backed up
Bjon Robinson at Texas, and if he wasn't Bijon backup,
you know, played somewhere else, he might have gone a
lot higher in the draft.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
So yeah, you know, I've watched a bunch of Rochan
Johnson in preparation for the draft, and I walked away
a lot less impressed than Thor is. But Thor watches
a lot more college football than I do, and so
I'm willing to kind of give Thor the benefit of
the doubt here. He thinks Rochan is just gonna bury Khalil,
but I'm an and foreman and for form if he's
(12:26):
not even this conversation. So but I'm just I don't
know if I feel as confident about that.
Speaker 3 (12:31):
Well, whoever ends up well for all the running backs involved.
Another notable not move but draft pick. The Bears got
the tenth overall pick among many other picks for trading
the first overall pick, and they took offensive tackle Darnell
Wright with that pick. So yeah, that's great for their
line and I guess it's worth mentioning tight end Robert
Tunyan also acquired via free agency, but Cole committed the
(12:55):
offense should be better this year with the addition of
DJ Moore the offensive or needs name is slipping my mind.
It's his second year, it's basically everyone's second year, and
the coach staff going in more weapons, better o line,
so the offense should be better under justin fields the
most underdrafted player by ADP. I was tempted to go
with the cheapest running back, who is Forehiman. You think
(13:15):
he's dust I do, I don't know I brought the reason, but.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
They also drafted Roshan Johnson for a reason.
Speaker 3 (13:22):
I'm out on this entire backfield. Now, I was, I
was on the Rochan train. I was taking my chances there.
But of course he's not the clear cut starter, doesn't
have a clear cut path. He's gonna compete with Herbert
and for him a little bit in my mind, and
Justin Fields is gonna take some high quality touches or
carries in that offense too. So I'm out on this backfield.
(13:43):
So I'm gonna go wide receiver for the most underdrafted player.
And no it's not Chase Claypool, who they're not happy with,
shockingly awful trade by the way, yeah, or the last
pick in the first same thing. Yeah, awful trade. But
it's Daryl Mooney and it's more of a best ball
angle here. But right now, at wide receiver fifty eight,
(14:03):
one hundred and twenty sixth overall, he was getting drafted
inside the top twenty four wide receivers last year, people
expecting a lot of things, but the he had he
got injured almost like halfway through the year. It was
just a bad year for him. But the addition to
DJ Moore should help him rising tide with almost.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
He's not a number one and he was getting number
one coverage last year. Now Moody's gonna get number two coverage.
He'll run out of the slot a lot more often.
I think there's there's reason to think Mooney could be
a a periodic, you know, right, matchup contributor.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
He'll love, He'll love his spike weeks and yeah, he'll
be a matchup based for sure. He'll be a take
a chance on any player this season without a doubt,
and the most overdrafted player. It's tough. I'm just gonna
go with Dj Moore wide receiver twenty six. I just
looking in that range overalls. Let me pull it up
real quick.
Speaker 1 (14:51):
I'm gonna guess, like Mike Evans is in that ballpark.
I'm trying to think other guys that might be, you know,
in that range.
Speaker 3 (14:58):
Yeah, Christian Kirk is going after him. Brandon Nayuk were
high on him, Chris Godwin. These are all guys I'd
rather have, Jackson Smith and Jigbityle Lockett. Yes, I'd rather
have all of them over DJ Morris. He's my, excuse me,
most overdrafted bear and.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
He's gonna be He's gonna be okay. Yeah, and Justin
Hurst Fine throws a nice deep ball, and he's gonna
have some big downfield plays justin he made justin fields,
but he may not be as consistent as wide receiver
twenty six would suggest. Let's move over to Green Bay.
That's our last NFC North team. The offseason moves that
matter really aren't very many, other than obviously you know
(15:33):
that Aaron Rodgers left and he took Randall Cobb, Alan Lazard,
and Robert Tunyan are all gone to He took Cobb
and the Lizard with him. The entire passing game has
been really revised here, including new starters at quarterback Jordan Love,
wide receiver Jaden Reed taken in the second round that
was earlier than people expected. And then they drafted the
two tight ends, and this is a bit of an
(15:53):
issue for fantasy owners to try to work their way
through Luke Musgraven round two and then we've assumed that
would be it than round three Tucker Craft, and really
both guys are capable pass catchers, and it makes this
thing super thorny for fantasy owners.
Speaker 3 (16:10):
E'rely reminiscent of when the Ravens took Cayden Hurst in
the first round and then Mark and I like Craft
a little more than than must grade. I know you
might get into that later.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
I do like Craft, and I'm not gonna get into that.
Speaker 3 (16:22):
He's the more like he's the pass catcher, like he
doesn't block. So that's what we love, the fantasy football
must graves like the more well rounded. Right, So yep?
Speaker 1 (16:34):
Is this gonna often? Is this offense gonna be worse
or better than last year? I really struggled with this.
I think they're gonna be a little better, even even
with the downgrade presumed downgrade from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love.
But Aaron Rodgers wasn't playing that well.
Speaker 3 (16:48):
I love the Packers this year. I know this is
gonna anger our Minnesota base but this isn't This is
not reality football.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
Just they're all so cheap they are.
Speaker 3 (16:56):
And I just I think Love is going to shock
a lot of people. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
And see, Yeah, we've talked about this before. I watched
Jordan Love's one full game from two seasons ago, and
he was awful. But there were a lot of things
working against him in that he didn't know he was
going to start until Friday, wasn't taking first team reps.
You know, there were lots of things that went wrong
with that game. I think Love's going to be okay,
and we'll talk more about parts of this, you know,
(17:20):
parts of this offense here in a minute or two.
Let's talk about the most overdrafted player. And I really
struggled with this. I think mostly all the packers that
can be had cheaply right now. So I just went
with basically the first wider, the first player being taken,
and that's Christian Watson.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
Well, well, I guess he is good before Aaron Jones,
which is.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
Yeah, he is. He's going at wide receiver nineteen, pick
thirty eight, and I'm intrigued by his upside, right, So
the problem for me is not Christian Watson, it's the ADP.
There's no discount being built into his ADP, despite the
fact that he's got the change of quarterback and so
much of his production coming on so few plays. Does
(18:01):
let me ask you this, Brian, does any player in
all of Fantasy football this year have more upside and
downside than Christian Watson?
Speaker 3 (18:13):
Probably? But he's in He's in the top five.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
I mean, you know, we're extrapolating forty one catches from
last year. His rookiear forty one in which he managed
to score nine times. And it's gotta be there's nine
nine times, there's nine time?
Speaker 3 (18:31):
Hey another movie?
Speaker 1 (18:32):
Yeah, absolutely, you know so, uh yeah it was. It
was seven catches and two rushing touchdowns. I believe.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
So he don't forget. Yeah, I know you remember Week
one against the very first offense that's off to eighty
yard touchdown. That's right, that was right in the red basket.
Speaker 1 (18:49):
That's right.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
You know nine.
Speaker 1 (18:51):
You know, his nine scores came in a four game stretch.
I mean we're extrapolating, like for you for wide receiver
nineteen to make sense for Christian Watson. You're really taking
that four game stretch and going, well, I'm going to
bank on something like that happening for a lot of
this season. And I don't know if that's I don't
know if that's fair to say. Jordan Love might suck.
(19:13):
You know, maybe he gets better as a sophomore, or
maybe he doesn't. He did not. Christian Watson does not
look like a route running technician, Brian. He just doesn't.
Speaker 3 (19:22):
To me.
Speaker 1 (19:22):
He looks like a guy who just runs fast and
gets open sometimes. And you know that, can you know
that can do things in the NFL, but it doesn't
do it regularly and by the and then factor in
the injury stuff from his rookie as well, so.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
He got his you know, his bell rung a couple
of times, pretty good miss games with concussions issues are.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Right, So Christian Watson, if you want to bank, if
you want to risk Christian Watson, totally cool with that.
Just know you're not getting him a discount. And then
the underdrafted player, you got a couple of good options.
Jaden Reid is go off the board, is wide receiver
seventy one, so you can get him very very late,
and he was a second or Romeo Dobbs didn't do
(20:04):
very much last year, but he's been the darling of
OTAs in mini camps. You could bank on him having
a better sophomore season, which is very possible. So you know,
one of either one of those guys. Dobbs cost a
little bit more, but not much. So those are the
guys that I think makes sense as underdrafted players. I
(20:26):
don't think there's a lot of receiving production that there's
a lot of receiving production up for grabs in this offense.
And both Reid and Dobbs are possible guys for that.
Let's take a quick break, Brian. When we come back,
let's turn our attention to the AFC North and find
out what we like about those teams. Hang on tight, everybody,
(20:50):
Welcome back. Segment number two Fantasy Football Weekly, Paul Charging
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Speaker 3 (21:27):
High stakes super chop contests are filling up sixty of
one hundred and forty four and the fifty dollars right now.
We ran at least three of those last year, so
this the high staker YEP, big money, Sir, I would
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Speaker 1 (21:43):
You are not allowed to play. Great opportunity for those
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can do that at Guillotine leagues dot com. Let's talk
about the NFC AFC North.
Speaker 3 (21:55):
How about we start with the Bengals. Do what Yeah,
the favorites, Yeah, they are the favorites. Off off season
moves that matter. Long time backup running back Sama J.
P Ryan signed with Denver and the only notable notable
addition to the backfield so far was drafting Chase Brown
out of Illinois in the fifth round. We'll talk about
that a little more in a minute or two. Tight
(22:16):
End Hayden Hurst left for Carolina. He was replaced by
IRV Smith on a one year proved deal. If Irv
can I stay healthy, yeah, I know. And really people
get exit like tight ends just they don't really need
it in uh Cincinnati, they got enough wide receivers there
to I don't know. Tight ends haven't done anything in
(22:37):
Cincinnati since Tyler Eifert and that was many, many years ago,
and that was only for like a year or two.
But not too excited about IRV Smith. But you can
get him on the cheap if you willing, if you're
willing to go there. At lastly, the Bengals added to
that wide receiver room. I dis mentioned drafting Charlie Jones
and andre Io sevus Io. I don't know iOS I
(22:59):
v a Io Savas. He's a little intriguing. They're both
intriguing dynasty stashes. Andre out of Princeton, I believe six ' four,
like two twenties. He's an intriguing prospect. But you know
he's playing at Princeton, so he was right. The competition
wasn't great, But again those are just late round dynasty stashes.
(23:19):
Will the offense be better or worse than last year?
Gotta go with better. Jamar Chase missed significant called significant
time five six games last year, he says healthy. I
know there's Joe Mixon, is I think as we speak
having some legal proceedings going on with his We won't
get into this.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
I mean, that's the storyline of Joe Mixon to me,
is like, unless there was an undisclosed injury of real
significance to Joe Mixon, dude doesn't have it anymore. You know,
the end for running backs comes fast. Why they didn't
do more to backfill his position to me is mysterious,
and maybe they have more confidence in him and they
know why he didn't look good. But just the eye
(23:59):
test line to your Brian, Joe Mixon looked plotting.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
As of right now, he is the starter. He's not
my most Well, we'll get to my most overdrafted player
in manteal sort of my most underdrafted player. This is
hard because you know you're not gonna say Jamar Chase
is underdrafted, or you can't.
Speaker 1 (24:17):
Because he's like third off the board.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
They all seem to be going in the right spot.
But I'm on with Joe Burrow. I mean, he's not
going late, but he's going to his quarterback five forty
fifth overall, significantly later than the big three Josh Allen,
Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson. But he shouldn't
been going three rounds later than the big three, in
(24:41):
a round later than l Jackson. He was one of
three quarterbacks with at least six games with three plus
passing touchdowns last season. He was on his way to
the seventh game YEA. In that Bengals game, they opened
it with a touchdown to T Higgins, which had taken
off the board, as did the whole game, so he
lost a game there. Do you remember how man rushing
touchdowns burrowhead last year? I won't take a guess, three, five, fourth,
(25:07):
Most of them quarterbacks. They don't want him to run,
that's all. He got hurt a couple of years ago.
But he can. Yeah, and I just think his instinct
takes over for him and he takes off if he.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
Feels another year off that acl He's still young, so
he's gonna have a little bit of mobility.
Speaker 3 (25:21):
They're not gonna like bootleg him from the Novalve, but
if needed, he's he can do it. He's mobile, that's
for sure. So I went with Joe Burrow and my
most overdrafted player. I wasn't gonna go mixing RB fifteen.
I don't know he's he's not in his prime. I
agree with you there. I don't know if he's fully cooked,
but he appears like he's gonna be the starting running back,
(25:42):
So I'm okay with where he's at right now.
Speaker 1 (25:44):
Joe Mixon could get to RB fifteen. I think Brian
just by being the starting running back for the Cincinnati Banks.
Speaker 3 (25:49):
Right and if he he might rekindle some of his
good years. Who knows well, but he's not. He's not
overdrafted in my mind where he's going right now. So
I went with Chase Brown. I mean, he's going late
RB fifty nine, pick one two, But I don't know
the Bengals as of right now, we still haven't had
any of these big free agent running backs. Final it's weird.
Speaker 1 (26:11):
Zeke still out there, Koreans still out there, Alvin Coarnett,
Dalvin Cook. Farnett's never playing again.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
I don't you think so. Nope, done. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (26:19):
Nobody wants them.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
Everybody's in pretty good shape, but everyone wants But I
don't know. I just don't bite into Chase Brown being
the number two or just being the guy. If something
would happen to mix and someone's coming to town, and
so I'm just not that you're the one hundred and
ninety second overall pick. It's not the end of the
world you take Chase Brown. But I just I think
there's something better, a better player you can draft with
that spot.
Speaker 1 (26:40):
Let's go to the Cleveland Browns. The offseason moves that matter.
They added wide receiver Elijah Moore, who was on the
outs with the Jets, and they had Jets and invested
in other players at wide receiver. He likely starts as
the slot receiver, and they also added rookie receiver Cedric
Tillman in the third round they lost. That was the
only ads of note really.
Speaker 3 (26:59):
Quickly on Eliza or who I It was one of
the best touchdown celebrations ever and he got flagged for
it in college when he did the dog you know,
he like lifted up his leg.
Speaker 1 (27:08):
Oh, yeah, that's right.
Speaker 3 (27:09):
But he can do that now because he's he'll be
like in the dog pound, so he shouldn't get flagged
like that beeing like a dog.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
So just recognizing the fan base exactly. They lost quarterback
Jacoby Brissett, they lost running back Kareem Hunt, running back
Deerness Johnson, and replaced those runners with nobody. Jerome Ford
is your backup to Nick Chubb and Chubb without Dearness Johnson,
without Kareem Hunt, Chubb could be sitting on a career
(27:39):
high in total touches for any one season that he's
had so far.
Speaker 3 (27:42):
Ford will work in. Ford has gone pre draft his
ADP free.
Speaker 1 (27:48):
Yeah. Now he's running back fifty.
Speaker 3 (27:50):
Yeah, he's going like he's cracking. He's pushing the top
one hundred and fifty.
Speaker 1 (27:55):
Well, he's going after the word right now, one sixty
as a matter of fact. And he's my most underdrafted player.
So it'll get right to that. Right now, you get
the undisputed backup to Nick Chubb. When you draft Jerome Ford,
Nick Chubb typically gets dinged up for you know, at
least a few games, and he probably gets mixed in
in a Kareem Hunt like role this year. Now, Jerome
Ford only had eight rushes last year as a rookie.
(28:16):
He was the team's primary kick returner, so he got
some action there. So I went and looked at more
of what Jerome Ford did.
Speaker 3 (28:23):
In college Cincinnati.
Speaker 1 (28:25):
Right Cincinnati, that's exactly right where he set the all
time Cincinnati record with nineteen touchdowns in his senior year. Now,
he'd started his college career at Alabama, couldn't get on
the field, which is understandable there, so goes to Cincinnati
and all he does is lead the acc and rushing,
so you know, the kids got a little something and
he can catch a bit. He had twenty one receptions
(28:45):
as a senior and you don't handle kick return duties
unless you've got some hands. So Jerome Ford, I think
walks into that. Kareem Hunt roll and Kareem Hunt over
the last few years is generally taken off the board.
It like running back thirty five awards, running back fifty.
Speaker 3 (29:01):
Yeah. I loved Ford. I was drafting him a lot
prior to the NFL Draft last year, looking at his
skill set in college, and it was just a brutal
landing spot last year in Cleveland. Yes, he was just
buried behind three other guys. But now, yeah, I'm there's
no other without a question, the most underd drafted player.
Still know he's surging. It's still he's still too cheap.
Speaker 1 (29:21):
Jerome Ford, but just running style, compact runner. He's a
little shorter, with what I found to be a very
gritty running style and really good footwork. The footwork is
the stuff that I really liked watching him at Cincinnati.
This offense probably gets a little better because of the
presumed improvement of Deshaun Watson, even though Watson was in
every category of statistical downgrade from Jacoby Brissette, who was
(29:44):
better for the first half of those games. I think
it was week eleven or twelve where I was twelve
where Deshaun Watson took over, and the Browns continue to
have arguably the best offensive line in the league. So
you know that is all great.
Speaker 3 (29:56):
That's all.
Speaker 1 (29:56):
I'll note this Browns have the easiest schedule in the NFL,
so that will help. Based on last year's win percentage,
the most overdrafted player to me Deshaun Watson going off
the board at quarterback nine eighty second. Overall, there's just
not enough value baked into his ADP to offset the
lackluster six games he played last year and his whole
(30:18):
year away from the game in twenty twenty one. And sure,
I get it. He was a top five fantasy quarterback
in twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, and twenty twenty. Man, that
feels like a long time ago, Brian, Yeah, that was
a long time ago. So here is Deshaun Watson in
year seven of his NFL career, seven, mind you, And
(30:43):
what if after seven years he's lost some of his
rushing prowess. Because the way that Deshaun Watson was getting
into the top five in twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen to
twenty twenty was because of his running if he's not
a dual threat quarterback, if you're just relying on his
arm in those years twenty eighteen to twenty, in twenty
(31:03):
eighteen to twenty twenty two, so you know a twenty
eighteen to twenty twenty in those years he passed for
twenty six touchdowns, twenty six touchdowns and thirty three touchdowns.
Those are David Carr numbers. So ask yourself for this
in year seven, are you sure Deshaun Watson is a
mobile quarterback who's gonna get designed rushing plays from Kevin
Stefanski who has no history of doing that. Now, granted
(31:25):
doesn't have hasn't had that kind of quarterback, but do
you know he's gonna get the rushing designed rushing usage
that makes Deshaun Watson the ninth best quarterback in Fantasy football?
Speaker 3 (31:37):
Yeah, it's uh, that price is too steep. I'd gladly wait. Basically,
you can wait two rounds and get a Kirk Cousins,
Daniel Jones, Gino Smith. Yep, take them two rounds later.
All day long, we'll be tailor to Deshaun Watson.
Speaker 1 (31:52):
Let's go to Baltimore.
Speaker 3 (31:54):
The more all right off season moves that matter, Todd,
don't call me Art. Monkin replaces Greg Roman as offensive coordinator,
which is huge because Roman was run heavy. Todd Munkin's
an air raid disciple type guy, so we can expect
a lot more passing in Baltimore or something that we
(32:15):
basically never seen since they moved from Cleveland. The teams
like they've always been a very run heavy team, so
should be exciting to see what newly acquired wide receiver
Odell Beckham Junior can do. Signed a one year deal,
A massive one year deal, by the way, like fifteen
million dollars. A lot of money sunk into OBJ. We'll
(32:36):
see how much getter he has left in the tank.
And they also signed Nelson Aguilar. I'll make a quick
mention of that, but he's easily fought off it on
the depth chart. Baltimore also drafted wide receivers A Flowers
with the twenty second overall pick. He figures to work
out at the slot for the most part, with Beckham
(32:56):
and Rashad Bateman working the outside. Will the offense be better
or worse than Land last year? Gotta go with better. JK.
Dobbins will be two years removed from major knee injury.
We'll talk about him a little more in a second.
And again, Todd, Todd Mounkin should just you know, it
should be more diverse offense, more passing. Uh So for
fantasy purposes, we're gonna go with better. Yep.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
So the projection that question, I think that in my
mind is all right. So is Lamar Jackson going to
get as many rushes? You know, because that was a
staple of Great Romans offense, And credit Great Roman for
unlocking that by making all these designed running plays for
his quarterback when nobody was doing that. But I don't
I'm worried that Jackson's going to take a step back
(33:40):
in the in terms of the designed running place.
Speaker 3 (33:42):
Yeah, I'm with you there, probably won't be in as
many designed running plays, but he'll still get his unbroken plays.
But yeah, he's gotten he's gotten hurt in the past
couple of years, and uh now.
Speaker 1 (33:52):
They got a massive financial investment that they need to
keep healthy.
Speaker 3 (33:55):
So yeah, I'm with you there. But again, if he
makes up for it with him extra ten passing touchdowns
will take that over losing a couple hundred rushing yards
and a couple of rushing touchdowns. My most underdrafted player.
We've talked about him a lot. JK. Dobbins running back
eighteen fifty seventh overall just just seems way too late.
We were talking about Jamior Gibbs earlier going off the
(34:17):
board a running back fourteen. I prefer Dobbins all day
over Gibbs this year in any format, even even full PPR.
So you gotta love Dobbins prospects two years removed from
the ACL or MCL. I can't recall which cl it was,
but he looked good towards the end of last year,
even though they weren't giving him the ball enough really,
(34:40):
and he was upset about that. So hopefully that squeaky
wheel carries over into this season and well his.
Speaker 1 (34:45):
New squeaky wheels. JK. Dobbins wants to get paid, Like, dude,
you haven't done anything in two years. You've got hurt
and then you played hurt and you've not done anything.
Shut up and go play on the last year of
your deal.
Speaker 3 (34:55):
Well, hopefully you'll prove it. I think he will that. Yeah,
well it's tough for any going back to get paid
these days, right, but it is. I'm I'm essentially all
in on Dobbin's at this price I've I've been drafted
with Tona just seems like too much of a value
right now.
Speaker 1 (35:10):
And I think and by the way, I always I
always throw Gus Edwards, inject Gus Edwards into these conversations
whenever I can. Also coming off the year off of
a c L he's free.
Speaker 3 (35:21):
Yeah, he's free, and.
Speaker 1 (35:22):
You can you know, and I still think he's there's
there's something there.
Speaker 3 (35:25):
He's underdrafted. Really, almost everyone is underdrafted on Baltimore. I
don't really have an overdrafted player. I guess you kind
of talked me into Lamar Jackson because I was just
saying Joe Burrow was going underdrafted. He's going after Jackson.
But I still love Lamar, But yeah, the design running
probably does come down. I wanted to go with Odell Beckham,
(35:47):
but he's not going like in the third, fourth round.
Speaker 1 (35:50):
He's people are being rational on where they're taking back up.
Speaker 3 (35:54):
Yeah, and all the wide receivers or the other two
Bateman and Zay Flowers before round nine, so they're they're
at the value you're not gonna argue against where Mark
Andrews is getting drafted. Isaiah Isaya likely was an underdrafted
candidate too. He's going way too late if something were
to happen to Andrews. I mean, he's gonna play wide
(36:15):
receiver too, even man now.
Speaker 1 (36:16):
But the problem is they Zay Flowers is going to
is going to work out of the slot a lot,
and that's where I wanted Isaiah likely to be a
stand up slot.
Speaker 3 (36:24):
But uh, he's certainly not overdrafted. So again, really, no
one is getting overdrafted for Baltimore. So I'll go with
the most expensive guy, and that's Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 1 (36:33):
It is, although I think Mark Andrews could be going
ahead him in some leagues. He isn't guillotine leagues.
Speaker 3 (36:37):
Yeah, in one quarter battle the guillotine leagues, is.
Speaker 1 (36:41):
He Yeah, well yeah, Andrews X is going the second
round of guillotine leagues because people have figured out you
have to have a tight ended well Andrews is going
before Jackson.
Speaker 3 (36:51):
And that's one quarterback league. Step two, non guillotine.
Speaker 1 (36:55):
Let's go to Pittsburgh. The offseason moves that matter are
basically none because they did virtually nothing, and adding Alan
Robinson does not count. Heay does not count. Dude is
so done.
Speaker 3 (37:07):
I'm not.
Speaker 1 (37:08):
I will say they put a first rounder in the
offensive line, which is awesome, Broderick Jones. And they also
added longtime Eagles guard I excuse me, Isaac Sayumalo, So
that was a very nice gain for them. So I
like what their offensive line, which we've we've dumped on
the Steers offensive line for like three years now, it
looks like it's finally been addressed to the point where
(37:30):
it's not this massive, glaring negative. So I think the
offense will almost certainly get better because they ranked twenty
thirteen yards and twenty sixth and points last year, so
I feel like they had almost nowhere to go but up.
And Kenny Pickett total wild card here. I did not
like almost anything I saw from last year. How do
you get seven passing touchdowns in fourteen games in this
(37:52):
in this version of the NFL that is leather helmet
style production from Kenny Pickett. You figure, though he'll regress
the mean and touchdowns and some touchdowns that come along.
And but I also didn't like his his yards per
attempt second shortest in the league. That's not good. We
need downfield passing. The most underdrafted player by ADP George Pickens.
(38:18):
I'm really intrigued here, Brian wide receiver forty seventy fifth
off the board. Who's the who is the most talented
receiver on this team? Is it clearly Deontay Johnson going
at wide receiver thirty one? I don't think so. George
Pickens in You're two. He had eight hundred yards as
a rookie, and Deontay Johnson just is not a wide
(38:38):
receiver one. He is not a He is not built
to be the focal point of a passing game. This
team wants and needs George Pickens to be that guy.
His twenty six percent air yard share was huge because
there's no other downfield threats on this team. When they
want to go downfield, they gotta go to Pickens. He
had those incredible highlight catches you saw last year. I
(39:00):
mean that's not fluky stuff. Pickens has crazy catch radius
and hands. He's already one of the best contested receivers
in the league. Also an elite run blocker, which does
not equal fantasy points, but it does keep you on
the field.
Speaker 3 (39:12):
And for those who don't know, Pickens was a rookie
last year, could have been the first rookie or first
wide receiver taken in last year's draft, but he got
hurt in like spring ball at Georgia, and he came
back for like the National championship game. So he essentially
missed his whole senior year. But he'll be fully healthy
(39:33):
going into this year.
Speaker 1 (39:33):
So let me ask you this, ask you this, and
so Kenny Pickett had seven passing touchdowns last year. Let's
say Kenny Pickett gets twenty, which is still awful by
the NFL standards. Well, let's just say he gets twenty touchdowns.
Deontae Johnson at zero last year. How many of those
twenty go to go to George Pickens?
Speaker 3 (39:52):
At least a third of them?
Speaker 1 (39:54):
I mean this, he's sitting on eight ten touchdowns almost automatically.
Speaker 3 (40:00):
Eight or ten, but six or seven I think'll take
that with a thousand yards, I think.
Speaker 1 (40:04):
So the most overdrafted player by you know, and you
can tell by the way I'm talking about it, Deontay Johnson,
And I know that he's coming off of zero touchdowns
seasons here like where was this last year? But it's
he's just not the dude. And of course he's gonna
not score zero touchdowns this year. But everybody there's all
the fantasy experts Brian are going one hundred and forty
(40:24):
four targets and zero touchdowns. Man, when he has one
hundred and forty four targets next year, you know that
numbers could be eight touchdowns. He's gonna regress to the mean. Well,
guess what he ain' getting a hundred forty four targets
this year?
Speaker 3 (40:34):
Probably not.
Speaker 1 (40:36):
Deontay Johnson is not the number one receiver in Pittsburgh.
It's George Pickens. Deontay Johnson is the short These short
passes don't equal fantasy points. I see his targets here
dropping massively. Johnson reminds me of Jarvis Landry, an annual
fantasy disappointment because of his painfully low air yards. And
(41:00):
Johnson was sixtieth in a dot among wide receivers, fifty
third in yards per route run. He just doesn't get
the ball down field. And that's what you need out
of your fantasy wide receivers. Deandrey Johnson's dead to us.
Speaker 3 (41:17):
Alan Robinson not dead to me. And when I say
that he's a last round start throw these days, but
he was getting open last year. Matthew Stafford was not
throwing to him. For whatever reason, play.
Speaker 1 (41:28):
Had Cooper Cup, he got hurt, two got hurt, hibout
the same time.
Speaker 3 (41:31):
So Alan Robinson not dust yet, sadly, can you pick
it might be the best quarterback he's played with because
he didn't really get to play with Matt Stafford a
whole lot last year. Staff was hurt.
Speaker 1 (41:42):
Just but here's the thing. The Rams need another receiver
and they let they let him walk. They got him
out of his contract so he could go elsewhere. They
should have they would have kept him because after Cooper Cup,
that depth chart falls apart in Los Angeles.
Speaker 3 (41:55):
Yeah, they're also you know, they're like quiet rebuilding, like
quiet quitting, quiet rebuilding. My mind, I don't know that's
they need to get rid of Al Minnesota.
Speaker 1 (42:06):
Yeah, I say the Vikings are doing a unspoken rebuild,
which I believe they are right now. Thanks for listening, everybody.
You can get my all my play rankings and cheat
sheets at at Guillotine leagues dot com and my my
basic cheat sheet is available for free. The premium ones
only ten bucks and it's got tons of great data
useful for a Guillotine League or not. And new mobile
(42:27):
app coming very very soon. We're doing our final bits
of testing on it now and we're going to launch
that and it is glorious. We encourage you to check
that out too. Thanks for listening, everybody, talk to you soon.
Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of iHeartRadio. For more
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wherever you listen to your favorite shows.
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and
whatever stupid stuff they decide to drop into the show. Now,
here's your host, Paul Chargian.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
It's Fantasy Football Weekly. I am Paul Charchie, and my
co host, as has been the case for most of
these off season episodes, Brian Johnson.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Hey, Hey charch Happy fourth of July.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Yeah, I love the fourth of July weekend.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Do you really?
Speaker 1 (00:35):
Yeah, I do.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
I had a sense we're just talking off air about it.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
And yeah, Minnesota is a very unique case. And I
don't want to bore people too much Minnesota centric stuff,
but in Minnesota, like half the population owns a cabin
in the north half of Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
Or they know La so they know someone who.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
Or knows somebody right, So much of the Twin Cities
just empties to the north. And I love being in
town where there's no traffic. The restaurants are aren't crowded,
the movie theaters aren't crowded. Everything I want to do
is got less people in it.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
We are in lockstep there. Love Yeah, that part is fantasic,
going up North Way too much riff raff. I just
hate fireworks. I'm not like, not like the big organized ones.
You want to go sit in traffic and walk out
to the field of the brit Fine.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
You're not interested in the in the fire cracker, the
Roman candle.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
The people across the border for those who don't know,
in Wisconsin you can buy the real deal. Well, yeah,
I hate the good stuff, especially people that are lighting
them off at two am.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Yeah, you can give out the thoughtful about that stuff.
But what if people it's ten o'clock on the fourth
of July, game on? I mean, that's that's your problem.
Not there so that time they breaking the law.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
Oh they're not, aren't they.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
No? I guess a lot of fireworks when you do it, those.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
Things are like weapons of mass destruction.
Speaker 1 (01:54):
And bring it on, baby. I love that stuff. I
love it now.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
I'll tell you I don't not wait until the fifth
of July.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
Here's what I don't like about fireworks. And it's the
only thing for me is I am one of those
people that mosquitoes love me. They've got my scent, I've
got the blood type they love and So if you're
outside watching some big fireworks thing, the mosquitoes find me first,
and I can't you know, in the twenty minutes it
(02:20):
takes to get through the whole fireworks display regimen, I've
got like forty mosquito bites. And I'm not kidding. I
mean just it's like every few seconds, I'm getting a bite.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
I love the people that take pictures or videos of
the fireworks, like you're ever gonna go back and look
at that.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
It just doesn't work.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
Check out the picture of this firework. You really have
to be there.
Speaker 1 (02:41):
But it's like concerts. It's like the people who filmed
the concerts. It doesn't work that way.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
Just enjoy the moment with your eyeballs.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
Exactly because it's not going to translate and it won't
mean it's like one tenth is good. Later, all right,
let's speak of Minnesota. Yeah, hey, let's break down the
off seasons and the forecasting for the NFC North and
the AFC North.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
We're gonna close it out, right, Yeah, So we've.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
Already done all the other divisions and this is our
these are our last divisions to do the norths which
also I think that you know the key part of this,
in addition is getting up to speed on some of
the kiopsis moves, is really identifying the players that are
getting drafted wrong right now based on current ADP. And
let's uh, why don't we start in I don't know, Uh,
(03:27):
I want to do Green Bay. Uh sure, I think
that that is you, that is me? Yeah, how about Detroit?
Speaker 3 (03:32):
Yeah, we can go to Detroit.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
To Detroit. They're they're the favored by a mile. They're
the Vegas favorite to win.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
The NFC North but wide open in my opinion. But yes,
Detroit are the favorites. Those are the times we are
living in. It's kind of crazy. The Lions also one
of the teams with the most turnover on offense this offseason.
Major moves in their backfield. Jamal Williams last year is
leading munch down leader. Yeah, Russier gone in New Orleans now.
(03:58):
DeAndre Swift trade to the Eagles, So in comes David
Montgomery to likely assume the Jamal Williams role, and they
drafted rookie Jamier Gibbs with the thirteenth overall pick for
major draft capital sunk into Gibbs, who's expected to play
this hybrid running back receiver role. I will see how
(04:19):
that pans out, but it's really going to be a
Montgomery with the early down work. It looks like in
Gibbs he'll play most downs, but certainly the third down
specialist you would think coming out of the backfield at
wide receiver. DJ Shark left via free agency. Back home
comes Marvin Jones to the Lions fo year old Marvin Jones.
(04:41):
Jamison Williams not really an off season move, but he
made a move with his finger on his phone in
the facility where he made a bet.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Yep, And it wasn't even in the facility. I think
it was in away game hotel. It's where he plays
the bet. And now he's out six.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
But that's considered, you know, like yeah off, you know,
that's like a traveling team. But anyway, he'll miss the
first six games. We'll talk about the wide receiver situation
a little more in a minute or two. Lions also
drafted tight end Sam Laporta out of Iowa in the
second round. He's expected to either starting tight end going
into the season, and Hendon Hooker drafted to back up. Well,
(05:21):
I don't know if he's not gonna be the initial
backup for Jared Goff, but he's he's an intriguing diynasty
Stats twenty twenty four definitely not this year. We won't
expect much from Hooker. Will the offense be better or
worse than last year? It was top top five offense
last year. I'm gonna say about the same. But Jami
(05:43):
or Gibbs is a huge update potentially with the Jamison
Williams suspension. Granted, he'll missed a lot of last year,
but he came on strong at the end of the year.
You know you need eight catches THEA. But he'll miss
the first six games. But it's not gonna get any worse.
We'll put it that way. It's gonna I'll go with better,
but it's not going to get worse, even though there's
(06:04):
a lot of changes on that offense. To me, the
most underdrafted player right now is David Montgomery. I agreed
at running back twenty six eighty fourth overall. I mean,
Jamal Williams seventeen touchdowns last year, and it's not like
Montgomery's automatically slated for seventeen touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
He won't get seventeen, but he's gonna he could get
double digit. But even if he gets roughly half that,
so you put him on nine, that's a touchdown every
other game. And then for Montgomery.
Speaker 3 (06:30):
Running back twenty six, I'll take that all day. And
Jamior Gibbs the most overdrafted to me at running back fourteen,
going forty first overall, you're getting, you know, a fifty
percent discount on Montgomery, who I suspect is going to
score more touchdowns total, more yards.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
I don't well about the yard I don't agree with
you on the yards at all, but I'm with you
on the touchdowns and Gibb. What worries me about Gibbs
is there's a real path for Gibbs to have like
a five touchdown season like DeAndre Swift right where he's
not gonna get goal line work. He needs to score
from distance, which he'll do a few times. You know,
he'll he's gonna Gibbs is going to be a guy
that's gonna roll up. It'll have a couple of long
(07:09):
runs or whatever, but he's gonna roll up what five
ish catches a game for forty yards. So he's gonna
get you like nine fantasy points right there on full
PPR for sure, for sure.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
PPR Dings standard big ding right much. I'm with you.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
I just don't think the touchdowns are going to be
there for Gibbs to get all the way up to
be running back fourteen. But I do think that's in
a full PPR. Running Back fourteen to me isn't far
off of where he should be.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
No, not in full PPR. No.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
Now let's go to the Vikings off season moves that matter.
For the Vikings. They released Adam Thelen replaced him with
first round pick Jordan Addison. Theeling by many metrics, took
a big step backwards last year, including his cushion rate,
his separation rate, yards after catching me, just a lot
of things that really suggested Thelon was at the end
(08:00):
of a very good career. And then, of course they
released Dalvin Cook outright, and they replaced him with nobody knew,
but did resign Alexander Madison to a two year deal.
We'll talk more about him in a few minutes. This
offense will trend similar to last year, when the Vikings
finished eighth in points, sixth in yards. Dalvin Cook wasn't
great anymore last year, but the overall running back depth
(08:21):
chart takes a step back clearly Without Dalvin Cook, the
passing game is going to miss the sure hands of feeling,
but they gained the big play threat of a young
Jordan Addison, which is very exciting. Kirk Cousins will be
thirty five this season. Maybe this is the season where
he starts to show his age, but we didn't see
really any signs of that last year. He looked very
much last year like the quarterback he had been for
(08:42):
the past several years, and so Kirk still seems like
a very safe, bankable guy. So I think this team
trends about the same as last year.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Cousins isn't a guy that I'm concerned about age now.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
It doesn't feel like it doesn't like.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
When we get into the his late thirties, he feels
like a guy w's gonna play itu ttill he's forty, Like, Yeah,
I don't know, because he's not a mobile quarterback, so
we're not really relying on his yeah athleticism that he's
been very reliable in his career so far.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
So the most overdrafted player I think is Alexander Madison,
going off the board at running back nineteen sixty first overall,
and he certainly enters training camp atop the depth chart
at the running back position. But this is way more
of an open battle than people realize. Alexander Madison is
a lackluster runner by many different metrics. He is as
(09:29):
they say, he's a jag. He is just a guy.
He's got subpar vision, He's not very good laterally, he's
a mediocre receiver. The burst is not particularly notable. There's
a lot of things about his game that I find
to be very, very average, and I see Madison as
the most likely Week one starter. But if he doesn't
really produce, I think Kevin O'Connell's going to start working
(09:52):
in some of the depth chart guys like ty Chandler
and maybe Dwayne McBride who they took late in the draft.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
So I think a lot of teams are going to
me mixing in three running backs in the Vikings are
certainly one of them. Yeah, people are just assuming Madison's
is going to get the old person.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
That he's just gonna take Dalvin Cook's touches.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
I'll believe it when I see it. Maybe I'm not
thinking that either.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
The most underdrafted player related to Madison, ty Chandler, you
can get him basically free He's going off the board
at pick two oh one. He's splashed last year in
the preseason, but couldn't get on the field ahead of
Cook in Madison. But Cook's gone and now ty Chandler's
the sophomore and has the potential to get a lot better.
(10:35):
He's the best pass catcher among Viking running backs, and
he is a big play home run hitter. Going off
the board at running back sixty one right now. So
you got a lot of opportunity with ty Chandler as
a last pick of your draft dart throw, and he
might just turn out to inherit that job from Alexander
Madison at some point, maybe early in the season.
Speaker 3 (10:55):
Yeah, I've been drafting a lot of ty Chandler.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
Let's talk about the Chicago Bears.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
Brian the Bear's a lot of moves in the office.
He's in, not a ton of exciting moves. The most
exciting move was they traded the first overall pick to
the Panthers for a package including DJ Moore, who's arguably
the best wide receiver in Bears history already.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
Wow, that's a great question, actually.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
Except Bernard Barry in that one year.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
Yeah, Brandon, what's his Bran Mash had a couple of.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
Good years, but that really hasn't been a ton to
talk about the wide receiver position, So yeah, DJ Moore
will definitely bolster that pass attack. The Bears also signed
former panther Dante Forman, he was in part of that
that trade, to a one year deal. We mentioned David
Montgomery gone from Chicago, so he will compete for touches
with Khalil Herbert who's already in town. And the Bears
(11:48):
also drafted running back Roshawn Johnson out of Texas in
the fourth round. A guy we like you a lot we know,
or a good buddy. Thor loves him. Johnson backed up
Bjon Robinson at Texas, and if he wasn't Bijon backup,
you know, played somewhere else, he might have gone a
lot higher in the draft.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
So yeah, you know, I've watched a bunch of Rochan
Johnson in preparation for the draft, and I walked away
a lot less impressed than Thor is. But Thor watches
a lot more college football than I do, and so
I'm willing to kind of give Thor the benefit of
the doubt here. He thinks Rochan is just gonna bury Khalil,
but I'm an and foreman and for form if he's
(12:26):
not even this conversation. So but I'm just I don't
know if I feel as confident about that.
Speaker 3 (12:31):
Well, whoever ends up well for all the running backs involved.
Another notable not move but draft pick. The Bears got
the tenth overall pick among many other picks for trading
the first overall pick, and they took offensive tackle Darnell
Wright with that pick. So yeah, that's great for their
line and I guess it's worth mentioning tight end Robert
Tunyan also acquired via free agency, but Cole committed the
(12:55):
offense should be better this year with the addition of
DJ Moore the offensive or needs name is slipping my mind.
It's his second year, it's basically everyone's second year, and
the coach staff going in more weapons, better o line,
so the offense should be better under justin fields the
most underdrafted player by ADP. I was tempted to go
with the cheapest running back, who is Forehiman. You think
(13:15):
he's dust I do, I don't know I brought the reason, but.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
They also drafted Roshan Johnson for a reason.
Speaker 3 (13:22):
I'm out on this entire backfield. Now, I was, I
was on the Rochan train. I was taking my chances there.
But of course he's not the clear cut starter, doesn't
have a clear cut path. He's gonna compete with Herbert
and for him a little bit in my mind, and
Justin Fields is gonna take some high quality touches or
carries in that offense too. So I'm out on this backfield.
(13:43):
So I'm gonna go wide receiver for the most underdrafted player.
And no it's not Chase Claypool, who they're not happy with,
shockingly awful trade by the way, yeah, or the last
pick in the first same thing. Yeah, awful trade. But
it's Daryl Mooney and it's more of a best ball
angle here. But right now, at wide receiver fifty eight,
(14:03):
one hundred and twenty sixth overall, he was getting drafted
inside the top twenty four wide receivers last year, people
expecting a lot of things, but the he had he
got injured almost like halfway through the year. It was
just a bad year for him. But the addition to
DJ Moore should help him rising tide with almost.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
He's not a number one and he was getting number
one coverage last year. Now Moody's gonna get number two coverage.
He'll run out of the slot a lot more often.
I think there's there's reason to think Mooney could be
a a periodic, you know, right, matchup contributor.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
He'll love, He'll love his spike weeks and yeah, he'll
be a matchup based for sure. He'll be a take
a chance on any player this season without a doubt,
and the most overdrafted player. It's tough. I'm just gonna
go with Dj Moore wide receiver twenty six. I just
looking in that range overalls. Let me pull it up
real quick.
Speaker 1 (14:51):
I'm gonna guess, like Mike Evans is in that ballpark.
I'm trying to think other guys that might be, you know,
in that range.
Speaker 3 (14:58):
Yeah, Christian Kirk is going after him. Brandon Nayuk were
high on him, Chris Godwin. These are all guys I'd
rather have, Jackson Smith and Jigbityle Lockett. Yes, I'd rather
have all of them over DJ Morris. He's my, excuse me,
most overdrafted bear and.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
He's gonna be He's gonna be okay. Yeah, and Justin
Hurst Fine throws a nice deep ball, and he's gonna
have some big downfield plays justin he made justin fields,
but he may not be as consistent as wide receiver
twenty six would suggest. Let's move over to Green Bay.
That's our last NFC North team. The offseason moves that
matter really aren't very many, other than obviously you know
(15:33):
that Aaron Rodgers left and he took Randall Cobb, Alan Lazard,
and Robert Tunyan are all gone to He took Cobb
and the Lizard with him. The entire passing game has
been really revised here, including new starters at quarterback Jordan Love,
wide receiver Jaden Reed taken in the second round that
was earlier than people expected. And then they drafted the
two tight ends, and this is a bit of an
(15:53):
issue for fantasy owners to try to work their way
through Luke Musgraven round two and then we've assumed that
would be it than round three Tucker Craft, and really
both guys are capable pass catchers, and it makes this
thing super thorny for fantasy owners.
Speaker 3 (16:10):
E'rely reminiscent of when the Ravens took Cayden Hurst in
the first round and then Mark and I like Craft
a little more than than must grade. I know you
might get into that later.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
I do like Craft, and I'm not gonna get into that.
Speaker 3 (16:22):
He's the more like he's the pass catcher, like he
doesn't block. So that's what we love, the fantasy football
must graves like the more well rounded. Right, So yep?
Speaker 1 (16:34):
Is this gonna often? Is this offense gonna be worse
or better than last year? I really struggled with this.
I think they're gonna be a little better, even even
with the downgrade presumed downgrade from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love.
But Aaron Rodgers wasn't playing that well.
Speaker 3 (16:48):
I love the Packers this year. I know this is
gonna anger our Minnesota base but this isn't This is
not reality football.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
Just they're all so cheap they are.
Speaker 3 (16:56):
And I just I think Love is going to shock
a lot of people. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
And see, Yeah, we've talked about this before. I watched
Jordan Love's one full game from two seasons ago, and
he was awful. But there were a lot of things
working against him in that he didn't know he was
going to start until Friday, wasn't taking first team reps.
You know, there were lots of things that went wrong
with that game. I think Love's going to be okay,
and we'll talk more about parts of this, you know,
(17:20):
parts of this offense here in a minute or two.
Let's talk about the most overdrafted player. And I really
struggled with this. I think mostly all the packers that
can be had cheaply right now. So I just went
with basically the first wider, the first player being taken,
and that's Christian Watson.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
Well, well, I guess he is good before Aaron Jones,
which is.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
Yeah, he is. He's going at wide receiver nineteen, pick
thirty eight, and I'm intrigued by his upside, right, So
the problem for me is not Christian Watson, it's the ADP.
There's no discount being built into his ADP, despite the
fact that he's got the change of quarterback and so
much of his production coming on so few plays. Does
(18:01):
let me ask you this, Brian, does any player in
all of Fantasy football this year have more upside and
downside than Christian Watson?
Speaker 3 (18:13):
Probably? But he's in He's in the top five.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
I mean, you know, we're extrapolating forty one catches from
last year. His rookiear forty one in which he managed
to score nine times. And it's gotta be there's nine
nine times, there's nine time?
Speaker 3 (18:31):
Hey another movie?
Speaker 1 (18:32):
Yeah, absolutely, you know so, uh yeah it was. It
was seven catches and two rushing touchdowns. I believe.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
So he don't forget. Yeah, I know you remember Week
one against the very first offense that's off to eighty
yard touchdown. That's right, that was right in the red basket.
Speaker 1 (18:49):
That's right.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
You know nine.
Speaker 1 (18:51):
You know, his nine scores came in a four game stretch.
I mean we're extrapolating, like for you for wide receiver
nineteen to make sense for Christian Watson. You're really taking
that four game stretch and going, well, I'm going to
bank on something like that happening for a lot of
this season. And I don't know if that's I don't
know if that's fair to say. Jordan Love might suck.
(19:13):
You know, maybe he gets better as a sophomore, or
maybe he doesn't. He did not. Christian Watson does not
look like a route running technician, Brian. He just doesn't.
Speaker 3 (19:22):
To me.
Speaker 1 (19:22):
He looks like a guy who just runs fast and
gets open sometimes. And you know that, can you know
that can do things in the NFL, but it doesn't
do it regularly and by the and then factor in
the injury stuff from his rookie as well, so.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
He got his you know, his bell rung a couple
of times, pretty good miss games with concussions issues are.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Right, So Christian Watson, if you want to bank, if
you want to risk Christian Watson, totally cool with that.
Just know you're not getting him a discount. And then
the underdrafted player, you got a couple of good options.
Jaden Reid is go off the board, is wide receiver
seventy one, so you can get him very very late,
and he was a second or Romeo Dobbs didn't do
(20:04):
very much last year, but he's been the darling of
OTAs in mini camps. You could bank on him having
a better sophomore season, which is very possible. So you know,
one of either one of those guys. Dobbs cost a
little bit more, but not much. So those are the
guys that I think makes sense as underdrafted players. I
(20:26):
don't think there's a lot of receiving production that there's
a lot of receiving production up for grabs in this offense.
And both Reid and Dobbs are possible guys for that.
Let's take a quick break, Brian. When we come back,
let's turn our attention to the AFC North and find
out what we like about those teams. Hang on tight, everybody,
(20:50):
Welcome back. Segment number two Fantasy Football Weekly, Paul Charging
Brian Johnson. Guillotine Leagues dot com. We're open for business, baby.
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Speaker 3 (21:27):
High stakes super chop contests are filling up sixty of
one hundred and forty four and the fifty dollars right now.
We ran at least three of those last year, so
this the high staker YEP, big money, Sir, I would
get in all of them if I was allowed to play,
but I am not.
Speaker 1 (21:43):
You are not allowed to play. Great opportunity for those
that want a little more upside, financial prizing upside. You
can do that at Guillotine leagues dot com. Let's talk
about the NFC AFC North.
Speaker 3 (21:55):
How about we start with the Bengals. Do what Yeah,
the favorites, Yeah, they are the favorites. Off off season
moves that matter. Long time backup running back Sama J.
P Ryan signed with Denver and the only notable notable
addition to the backfield so far was drafting Chase Brown
out of Illinois in the fifth round. We'll talk about
that a little more in a minute or two. Tight
(22:16):
End Hayden Hurst left for Carolina. He was replaced by
IRV Smith on a one year proved deal. If Irv
can I stay healthy, yeah, I know. And really people
get exit like tight ends just they don't really need
it in uh Cincinnati, they got enough wide receivers there
to I don't know. Tight ends haven't done anything in
(22:37):
Cincinnati since Tyler Eifert and that was many, many years ago,
and that was only for like a year or two.
But not too excited about IRV Smith. But you can
get him on the cheap if you willing, if you're
willing to go there. At lastly, the Bengals added to
that wide receiver room. I dis mentioned drafting Charlie Jones
and andre Io sevus Io. I don't know iOS I
(22:59):
v a Io Savas. He's a little intriguing. They're both
intriguing dynasty stashes. Andre out of Princeton, I believe six ' four,
like two twenties. He's an intriguing prospect. But you know
he's playing at Princeton, so he was right. The competition
wasn't great, But again those are just late round dynasty stashes.
(23:19):
Will the offense be better or worse than last year?
Gotta go with better. Jamar Chase missed significant called significant
time five six games last year, he says healthy. I
know there's Joe Mixon, is I think as we speak
having some legal proceedings going on with his We won't
get into this.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
I mean, that's the storyline of Joe Mixon to me,
is like, unless there was an undisclosed injury of real
significance to Joe Mixon, dude doesn't have it anymore. You know,
the end for running backs comes fast. Why they didn't
do more to backfill his position to me is mysterious,
and maybe they have more confidence in him and they
know why he didn't look good. But just the eye
(23:59):
test line to your Brian, Joe Mixon looked plotting.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
As of right now, he is the starter. He's not
my most Well, we'll get to my most overdrafted player
in manteal sort of my most underdrafted player. This is
hard because you know you're not gonna say Jamar Chase
is underdrafted, or you can't.
Speaker 1 (24:17):
Because he's like third off the board.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
They all seem to be going in the right spot.
But I'm on with Joe Burrow. I mean, he's not
going late, but he's going to his quarterback five forty
fifth overall, significantly later than the big three Josh Allen,
Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson. But he shouldn't
been going three rounds later than the big three, in
(24:41):
a round later than l Jackson. He was one of
three quarterbacks with at least six games with three plus
passing touchdowns last season. He was on his way to
the seventh game YEA. In that Bengals game, they opened
it with a touchdown to T Higgins, which had taken
off the board, as did the whole game, so he
lost a game there. Do you remember how man rushing
touchdowns burrowhead last year? I won't take a guess, three, five, fourth,
(25:07):
Most of them quarterbacks. They don't want him to run,
that's all. He got hurt a couple of years ago.
But he can. Yeah, and I just think his instinct
takes over for him and he takes off if he.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
Feels another year off that acl He's still young, so
he's gonna have a little bit of mobility.
Speaker 3 (25:21):
They're not gonna like bootleg him from the Novalve, but
if needed, he's he can do it. He's mobile, that's
for sure. So I went with Joe Burrow and my
most overdrafted player. I wasn't gonna go mixing RB fifteen.
I don't know he's he's not in his prime. I
agree with you there. I don't know if he's fully cooked,
but he appears like he's gonna be the starting running back,
(25:42):
So I'm okay with where he's at right now.
Speaker 1 (25:44):
Joe Mixon could get to RB fifteen. I think Brian
just by being the starting running back for the Cincinnati Banks.
Speaker 3 (25:49):
Right and if he he might rekindle some of his
good years. Who knows well, but he's not. He's not
overdrafted in my mind where he's going right now. So
I went with Chase Brown. I mean, he's going late
RB fifty nine, pick one two, But I don't know
the Bengals as of right now, we still haven't had
any of these big free agent running backs. Final it's weird.
Speaker 1 (26:11):
Zeke still out there, Koreans still out there, Alvin Coarnett,
Dalvin Cook. Farnett's never playing again.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
I don't you think so. Nope, done. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (26:19):
Nobody wants them.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
Everybody's in pretty good shape, but everyone wants But I
don't know. I just don't bite into Chase Brown being
the number two or just being the guy. If something
would happen to mix and someone's coming to town, and
so I'm just not that you're the one hundred and
ninety second overall pick. It's not the end of the
world you take Chase Brown. But I just I think
there's something better, a better player you can draft with
that spot.
Speaker 1 (26:40):
Let's go to the Cleveland Browns. The offseason moves that matter.
They added wide receiver Elijah Moore, who was on the
outs with the Jets, and they had Jets and invested
in other players at wide receiver. He likely starts as
the slot receiver, and they also added rookie receiver Cedric
Tillman in the third round they lost. That was the
only ads of note really.
Speaker 3 (26:59):
Quickly on Eliza or who I It was one of
the best touchdown celebrations ever and he got flagged for
it in college when he did the dog you know,
he like lifted up his leg.
Speaker 1 (27:08):
Oh, yeah, that's right.
Speaker 3 (27:09):
But he can do that now because he's he'll be
like in the dog pound, so he shouldn't get flagged
like that beeing like a dog.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
So just recognizing the fan base exactly. They lost quarterback
Jacoby Brissett, they lost running back Kareem Hunt, running back
Deerness Johnson, and replaced those runners with nobody. Jerome Ford
is your backup to Nick Chubb and Chubb without Dearness Johnson,
without Kareem Hunt, Chubb could be sitting on a career
(27:39):
high in total touches for any one season that he's
had so far.
Speaker 3 (27:42):
Ford will work in. Ford has gone pre draft his
ADP free.
Speaker 1 (27:48):
Yeah. Now he's running back fifty.
Speaker 3 (27:50):
Yeah, he's going like he's cracking. He's pushing the top
one hundred and fifty.
Speaker 1 (27:55):
Well, he's going after the word right now, one sixty
as a matter of fact. And he's my most underdrafted player.
So it'll get right to that. Right now, you get
the undisputed backup to Nick Chubb. When you draft Jerome Ford,
Nick Chubb typically gets dinged up for you know, at
least a few games, and he probably gets mixed in
in a Kareem Hunt like role this year. Now, Jerome
Ford only had eight rushes last year as a rookie.
(28:16):
He was the team's primary kick returner, so he got
some action there. So I went and looked at more
of what Jerome Ford did.
Speaker 3 (28:23):
In college Cincinnati.
Speaker 1 (28:25):
Right Cincinnati, that's exactly right where he set the all
time Cincinnati record with nineteen touchdowns in his senior year. Now,
he'd started his college career at Alabama, couldn't get on
the field, which is understandable there, so goes to Cincinnati
and all he does is lead the acc and rushing,
so you know, the kids got a little something and
he can catch a bit. He had twenty one receptions
(28:45):
as a senior and you don't handle kick return duties
unless you've got some hands. So Jerome Ford, I think
walks into that. Kareem Hunt roll and Kareem Hunt over
the last few years is generally taken off the board.
It like running back thirty five awards, running back fifty.
Speaker 3 (29:01):
Yeah. I loved Ford. I was drafting him a lot
prior to the NFL Draft last year, looking at his
skill set in college, and it was just a brutal
landing spot last year in Cleveland. Yes, he was just
buried behind three other guys. But now, yeah, I'm there's
no other without a question, the most underd drafted player.
Still know he's surging. It's still he's still too cheap.
Speaker 1 (29:21):
Jerome Ford, but just running style, compact runner. He's a
little shorter, with what I found to be a very
gritty running style and really good footwork. The footwork is
the stuff that I really liked watching him at Cincinnati.
This offense probably gets a little better because of the
presumed improvement of Deshaun Watson, even though Watson was in
every category of statistical downgrade from Jacoby Brissette, who was
(29:44):
better for the first half of those games. I think
it was week eleven or twelve where I was twelve
where Deshaun Watson took over, and the Browns continue to
have arguably the best offensive line in the league. So
you know that is all great.
Speaker 3 (29:56):
That's all.
Speaker 1 (29:56):
I'll note this Browns have the easiest schedule in the NFL,
so that will help. Based on last year's win percentage,
the most overdrafted player to me Deshaun Watson going off
the board at quarterback nine eighty second. Overall, there's just
not enough value baked into his ADP to offset the
lackluster six games he played last year and his whole
(30:18):
year away from the game in twenty twenty one. And sure,
I get it. He was a top five fantasy quarterback
in twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, and twenty twenty. Man, that
feels like a long time ago, Brian, Yeah, that was
a long time ago. So here is Deshaun Watson in
year seven of his NFL career, seven, mind you, And
(30:43):
what if after seven years he's lost some of his
rushing prowess. Because the way that Deshaun Watson was getting
into the top five in twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen to
twenty twenty was because of his running if he's not
a dual threat quarterback, if you're just relying on his
arm in those years twenty eighteen to twenty, in twenty
(31:03):
eighteen to twenty twenty two, so you know a twenty
eighteen to twenty twenty in those years he passed for
twenty six touchdowns, twenty six touchdowns and thirty three touchdowns.
Those are David Carr numbers. So ask yourself for this
in year seven, are you sure Deshaun Watson is a
mobile quarterback who's gonna get designed rushing plays from Kevin
Stefanski who has no history of doing that. Now, granted
(31:25):
doesn't have hasn't had that kind of quarterback, but do
you know he's gonna get the rushing designed rushing usage
that makes Deshaun Watson the ninth best quarterback in Fantasy football?
Speaker 3 (31:37):
Yeah, it's uh, that price is too steep. I'd gladly wait. Basically,
you can wait two rounds and get a Kirk Cousins,
Daniel Jones, Gino Smith. Yep, take them two rounds later.
All day long, we'll be tailor to Deshaun Watson.
Speaker 1 (31:52):
Let's go to Baltimore.
Speaker 3 (31:54):
The more all right off season moves that matter, Todd,
don't call me Art. Monkin replaces Greg Roman as offensive coordinator,
which is huge because Roman was run heavy. Todd Munkin's
an air raid disciple type guy, so we can expect
a lot more passing in Baltimore or something that we
(32:15):
basically never seen since they moved from Cleveland. The teams
like they've always been a very run heavy team, so
should be exciting to see what newly acquired wide receiver
Odell Beckham Junior can do. Signed a one year deal,
A massive one year deal, by the way, like fifteen
million dollars. A lot of money sunk into OBJ. We'll
(32:36):
see how much getter he has left in the tank.
And they also signed Nelson Aguilar. I'll make a quick
mention of that, but he's easily fought off it on
the depth chart. Baltimore also drafted wide receivers A Flowers
with the twenty second overall pick. He figures to work
out at the slot for the most part, with Beckham
(32:56):
and Rashad Bateman working the outside. Will the offense be better
or worse than Land last year? Gotta go with better. JK.
Dobbins will be two years removed from major knee injury.
We'll talk about him a little more in a second.
And again, Todd, Todd Mounkin should just you know, it
should be more diverse offense, more passing. Uh So for
fantasy purposes, we're gonna go with better. Yep.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
So the projection that question, I think that in my
mind is all right. So is Lamar Jackson going to
get as many rushes? You know, because that was a
staple of Great Romans offense, And credit Great Roman for
unlocking that by making all these designed running plays for
his quarterback when nobody was doing that. But I don't
I'm worried that Jackson's going to take a step back
(33:40):
in the in terms of the designed running place.
Speaker 3 (33:42):
Yeah, I'm with you there, probably won't be in as
many designed running plays, but he'll still get his unbroken plays.
But yeah, he's gotten he's gotten hurt in the past
couple of years, and uh now.
Speaker 1 (33:52):
They got a massive financial investment that they need to
keep healthy.
Speaker 3 (33:55):
So yeah, I'm with you there. But again, if he
makes up for it with him extra ten passing touchdowns
will take that over losing a couple hundred rushing yards
and a couple of rushing touchdowns. My most underdrafted player.
We've talked about him a lot. JK. Dobbins running back
eighteen fifty seventh overall just just seems way too late.
We were talking about Jamior Gibbs earlier going off the
(34:17):
board a running back fourteen. I prefer Dobbins all day
over Gibbs this year in any format, even even full PPR.
So you gotta love Dobbins prospects two years removed from
the ACL or MCL. I can't recall which cl it was,
but he looked good towards the end of last year,
even though they weren't giving him the ball enough really,
(34:40):
and he was upset about that. So hopefully that squeaky
wheel carries over into this season and well his.
Speaker 1 (34:45):
New squeaky wheels. JK. Dobbins wants to get paid, Like, dude,
you haven't done anything in two years. You've got hurt
and then you played hurt and you've not done anything.
Shut up and go play on the last year of
your deal.
Speaker 3 (34:55):
Well, hopefully you'll prove it. I think he will that. Yeah,
well it's tough for any going back to get paid
these days, right, but it is. I'm I'm essentially all
in on Dobbin's at this price I've I've been drafted
with Tona just seems like too much of a value
right now.
Speaker 1 (35:10):
And I think and by the way, I always I
always throw Gus Edwards, inject Gus Edwards into these conversations
whenever I can. Also coming off the year off of
a c L he's free.
Speaker 3 (35:21):
Yeah, he's free, and.
Speaker 1 (35:22):
You can you know, and I still think he's there's
there's something there.
Speaker 3 (35:25):
He's underdrafted. Really, almost everyone is underdrafted on Baltimore. I
don't really have an overdrafted player. I guess you kind
of talked me into Lamar Jackson because I was just
saying Joe Burrow was going underdrafted. He's going after Jackson.
But I still love Lamar, But yeah, the design running
probably does come down. I wanted to go with Odell Beckham,
(35:47):
but he's not going like in the third, fourth round.
Speaker 1 (35:50):
He's people are being rational on where they're taking back up.
Speaker 3 (35:54):
Yeah, and all the wide receivers or the other two
Bateman and Zay Flowers before round nine, so they're they're
at the value you're not gonna argue against where Mark
Andrews is getting drafted. Isaiah Isaya likely was an underdrafted
candidate too. He's going way too late if something were
to happen to Andrews. I mean, he's gonna play wide
(36:15):
receiver too, even man now.
Speaker 1 (36:16):
But the problem is they Zay Flowers is going to
is going to work out of the slot a lot,
and that's where I wanted Isaiah likely to be a
stand up slot.
Speaker 3 (36:24):
But uh, he's certainly not overdrafted. So again, really, no
one is getting overdrafted for Baltimore. So I'll go with
the most expensive guy, and that's Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 1 (36:33):
It is, although I think Mark Andrews could be going
ahead him in some leagues. He isn't guillotine leagues.
Speaker 3 (36:37):
Yeah, in one quarter battle the guillotine leagues, is.
Speaker 1 (36:41):
He Yeah, well yeah, Andrews X is going the second
round of guillotine leagues because people have figured out you
have to have a tight ended well Andrews is going
before Jackson.
Speaker 3 (36:51):
And that's one quarterback league. Step two, non guillotine.
Speaker 1 (36:55):
Let's go to Pittsburgh. The offseason moves that matter are
basically none because they did virtually nothing, and adding Alan
Robinson does not count. Heay does not count. Dude is
so done.
Speaker 3 (37:07):
I'm not.
Speaker 1 (37:08):
I will say they put a first rounder in the
offensive line, which is awesome, Broderick Jones. And they also
added longtime Eagles guard I excuse me, Isaac Sayumalo, So
that was a very nice gain for them. So I
like what their offensive line, which we've we've dumped on
the Steers offensive line for like three years now, it
looks like it's finally been addressed to the point where
(37:30):
it's not this massive, glaring negative. So I think the
offense will almost certainly get better because they ranked twenty
thirteen yards and twenty sixth and points last year, so
I feel like they had almost nowhere to go but up.
And Kenny Pickett total wild card here. I did not
like almost anything I saw from last year. How do
you get seven passing touchdowns in fourteen games in this
(37:52):
in this version of the NFL that is leather helmet
style production from Kenny Pickett. You figure, though he'll regress
the mean and touchdowns and some touchdowns that come along.
And but I also didn't like his his yards per
attempt second shortest in the league. That's not good. We
need downfield passing. The most underdrafted player by ADP George Pickens.
(38:18):
I'm really intrigued here, Brian wide receiver forty seventy fifth
off the board. Who's the who is the most talented
receiver on this team? Is it clearly Deontay Johnson going
at wide receiver thirty one? I don't think so. George
Pickens in You're two. He had eight hundred yards as
a rookie, and Deontay Johnson just is not a wide
(38:38):
receiver one. He is not a He is not built
to be the focal point of a passing game. This
team wants and needs George Pickens to be that guy.
His twenty six percent air yard share was huge because
there's no other downfield threats on this team. When they
want to go downfield, they gotta go to Pickens. He
had those incredible highlight catches you saw last year. I
(39:00):
mean that's not fluky stuff. Pickens has crazy catch radius
and hands. He's already one of the best contested receivers
in the league. Also an elite run blocker, which does
not equal fantasy points, but it does keep you on
the field.
Speaker 3 (39:12):
And for those who don't know, Pickens was a rookie
last year, could have been the first rookie or first
wide receiver taken in last year's draft, but he got
hurt in like spring ball at Georgia, and he came
back for like the National championship game. So he essentially
missed his whole senior year. But he'll be fully healthy
(39:33):
going into this year.
Speaker 1 (39:33):
So let me ask you this, ask you this, and
so Kenny Pickett had seven passing touchdowns last year. Let's
say Kenny Pickett gets twenty, which is still awful by
the NFL standards. Well, let's just say he gets twenty touchdowns.
Deontae Johnson at zero last year. How many of those
twenty go to go to George Pickens?
Speaker 3 (39:52):
At least a third of them?
Speaker 1 (39:54):
I mean this, he's sitting on eight ten touchdowns almost automatically.
Speaker 3 (40:00):
Eight or ten, but six or seven I think'll take
that with a thousand yards, I think.
Speaker 1 (40:04):
So the most overdrafted player by you know, and you
can tell by the way I'm talking about it, Deontay Johnson,
And I know that he's coming off of zero touchdowns
seasons here like where was this last year? But it's
he's just not the dude. And of course he's gonna
not score zero touchdowns this year. But everybody there's all
the fantasy experts Brian are going one hundred and forty
(40:24):
four targets and zero touchdowns. Man, when he has one
hundred and forty four targets next year, you know that
numbers could be eight touchdowns. He's gonna regress to the mean. Well,
guess what he ain' getting a hundred forty four targets
this year?
Speaker 3 (40:34):
Probably not.
Speaker 1 (40:36):
Deontay Johnson is not the number one receiver in Pittsburgh.
It's George Pickens. Deontay Johnson is the short These short
passes don't equal fantasy points. I see his targets here
dropping massively. Johnson reminds me of Jarvis Landry, an annual
fantasy disappointment because of his painfully low air yards. And
(41:00):
Johnson was sixtieth in a dot among wide receivers, fifty
third in yards per route run. He just doesn't get
the ball down field. And that's what you need out
of your fantasy wide receivers. Deandrey Johnson's dead to us.
Speaker 3 (41:17):
Alan Robinson not dead to me. And when I say
that he's a last round start throw these days, but
he was getting open last year. Matthew Stafford was not
throwing to him. For whatever reason, play.
Speaker 1 (41:28):
Had Cooper Cup, he got hurt, two got hurt, hibout
the same time.
Speaker 3 (41:31):
So Alan Robinson not dust yet, sadly, can you pick
it might be the best quarterback he's played with because
he didn't really get to play with Matt Stafford a
whole lot last year. Staff was hurt.
Speaker 1 (41:42):
Just but here's the thing. The Rams need another receiver
and they let they let him walk. They got him
out of his contract so he could go elsewhere. They
should have they would have kept him because after Cooper Cup,
that depth chart falls apart in Los Angeles.
Speaker 3 (41:55):
Yeah, they're also you know, they're like quiet rebuilding, like
quiet quitting, quiet rebuilding. My mind, I don't know that's
they need to get rid of Al Minnesota.
Speaker 1 (42:06):
Yeah, I say the Vikings are doing a unspoken rebuild,
which I believe they are right now. Thanks for listening, everybody.
You can get my all my play rankings and cheat
sheets at at Guillotine leagues dot com and my my
basic cheat sheet is available for free. The premium ones
only ten bucks and it's got tons of great data
useful for a Guillotine League or not. And new mobile
(42:27):
app coming very very soon. We're doing our final bits
of testing on it now and we're going to launch
that and it is glorious. We encourage you to check
that out too. Thanks for listening, everybody, talk to you soon.
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