June 16, 2023 • 35 mins
Charch and Brian analyze each of the teams in the AFC & NFC South to identify the players who are being over/under drafted.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeart Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and
whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now,
here's your host, Paul Charian.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Welcome Fantasy Football Weekly. I am Paul Charchian. Co host
Brian Johnson. Hello, what's up, charts.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
We are fighting. We're not fighting the wildfires in Canada.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Not literally, they're not either, by the way. But yeah,
we've got a serious air quality issue. So we'll be
clearing our throats. Yeah a little bit at times. Yep,
we may sound a little gravelly. We may be killing
Mike's from time to time to uh clear the throats. Yeah,
it's it's it's weird. You know.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
New York got it bad. Yeah, I got a lot
of family so friends out in that region. It looked
way worse than here.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
Yes, but here's the thing about Canada, and I say,
why they're not actually fighting it. They're like, there's nothing
we can do. It's so big. This thing is just
gonna run until it puts itself out or winter comes.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
Okay, I made an awful joke an awful tweet.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
I'll share it here. You think they're so awful, you're
gonna you're gonna share, all right, run run it by you.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
Uh, how did it go?
Speaker 1 (01:19):
Okay? Yeah? Uh?
Speaker 3 (01:20):
You think they could control those fires up in Canada
better with all the hosers.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Oh that's good. That's it. Yeah, that's It's a dad joke,
but I like it the best jokes. That's really good. Uh.
Like last you know, last week, we broke down the
teams of the a f C and NFC East, and
as I was prepping up for today's show, which is
the a f C and NFC South, I realized, really
what this is more than anything else, as we break
down each one of these teams, For me, it's a
(01:47):
sleeper show. You know. I get all excited about some
sleeper who I really think is sitting out of good
years being being underdrafted, and we identify the most underdrafted
player on each one of the eight teams that we're
going to cover today and the most overdrafted player. So
it's a sleeper bust show as much as anything else.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
Yeah, I think can you recall at this point in
the offseason, I mean we're in OTAs now where there's
five six big name free agents still out there. Yeah,
like DeAndre Hopkins, Dalvin Cook, yeah, Ezekiel Elliottree Fond yeah,
Fournette Yeah.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
So we'll preview all these we have to preview. We're
at this point in the.
Speaker 3 (02:24):
Off season where you're previewing teams, but right not every
team is set in stone. But we'll just have to
see where those guys end up. But as of right now,
they are available.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
We'll drive it dive into the AFC South in just
a moment here. But a reminder, Guillotine leagues dot Com
now live. You can get all my player rankings for free,
get my cheat sheet for free. You can also get
the premium Guillotine specific cheat sheet. We've got a new
mobile app that's coming it at the end of this month.
We're very excited about that. And lots of different ways
to play private leagues with your friends, public contests at
(02:54):
whatever prize level you want, and are high stakes leagues
called Super Chop one hundred and forty four team. It's
the ultimate challenge in the Guillotine League universe.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
This is the fifty dollars one It's almost a quarter
full already yeah, baby, teams will have multiples of those.
And it's not too early to draft the aforementioned free
agents we were talking about.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
You get them cheaper now.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
Since they sign, it doesn't matter where they sign, their
value goes those up.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
So it's true, it is not too early. And the
people kind of people are listening to this show now.
You know, our listenership goes way up as the as
the season gets closer. The people are listening now. You man,
you're you are way ahead of most on this and
your ability to go crush a draft this time of
year is better than it's going to be later when
(03:37):
everybody catches up. All right, let's go to the FC south, Brian,
what team would you like to start with.
Speaker 3 (03:43):
Let's start with the Titans. Okay, off season moves it
matter for Tennessee. DeAndre Hopkins perhaps maybe first team he visited,
has not signed with Tennessee, so we'll just have to
wait and see there. Other than that, not a lot
of major moves in the off season. And now Robert
Woods and tight end Austin Hooper are no longer with
(04:04):
the team that leaves the receiving corpus Traylon Brooks really
the only guy you want. And then there's Nick Westbrook
at keene and Kyle Phillips there they're deep league dark throats.
It's really all about Treylon Brooks at wide receiver. And
we'll talk about the other tight end a little later.
Who's still with the team now that Hooper is gone.
(04:24):
And lastly, the Titans drafted running back ty J Spears
and quarterback Will Levis. Both not an immediate threat to
the you know the incumbents at the respective positions, Derrick
Henry and Ryan Tannehill, but they should have an impact
this year. We'll talk a little more about Spears in
a minute. Will the offense be better or worse than
(04:45):
last year?
Speaker 1 (04:47):
This is kind of a loaded question.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
It's gonna be better, It's gonna be a little bit better.
I mean, Tannehill was a hurt a lot last year.
Don't for Malik Willis, but now he's he's QB three
and if something happened to Tannehill, Levis has I'm intriguing upside.
He's got a lot of bust potential as well. But
they're not gonna miss Robert Woods, a Ton nor Austin Hooper.
Treylon Burks was injured a lot last year as well.
(05:10):
Hopefully he's fully healthy and in his second year he
should take a take a step, so we will go
towards better. My most underdrafted player by ADP, you'd think
it's Chicka koon Quill, who is now the starting tight end.
People are onto him, so yeah, he's he's like the
consensus sleeper, so he's no longer a sleeper. Crazically, I've
watched his ADP rise and rise jumped over month because
(05:32):
I've been drafted since February, so he's not really a
sleeper anymore. He's going off the board as tight end
twelve right now, so that's that's a tight end one.
That's a tight end one. So I still love him,
don't get me wrong, but he's he's not underdrafted by
any means. I'm gonna go with ty J. Spears one
hundred and seventy sixth overall running back, fifty four. He
has crossover appeal in that if you draft Derrick Henry,
(05:54):
you want He's one of my handcuffs, my must handcuffs Spears.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
But he's also a guy I'm.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
Drafting if I don't have Derrick Henry, because we're gonna
talk about Dereck Henry in but yeah, ty J Speers,
I don't like his long term potential per se because
he basically has no knees left.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
He's had some major knee issues.
Speaker 3 (06:11):
But right this year I'm looking at this year, we're
looking at an aging Derrick Henry and ty J Spears
probably as healthy as he's going to be in his
NFL career. So at running back fifty four, I'm loving
the value there and.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
Well, and you know, Henry has Henry could can falter
a lot of different ways at this stage of his career.
Right all the miles that are on him, he might
just take a big step down. We all know what
the running back position. When the end comes, it comes quickly.
Derick Henry might be at the end right now. This
could be it, so Spears could get used that way.
He could finally break down. For a guy who's been
(06:46):
a great workhorse back, Derrick Henry could finally break down too.
That would give Spears an opportunity to Yeah.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
You basically, and that is why Henry Derrick Henry is
my most overdrafted player right now, going off of the
board at RB eight, twenty fifth overall. So he's end
of the second, early third. But like you said, this
is the epitome of mitigating the age Cliff he is
at that age, especially for a running back. Gap twenty
nine doesn't catch a ton. And yeah, it's not an
(07:13):
exciting offense either. They used to have such a dominant offensive.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
Line right of the case, so their line I think
was ranked dead last and run blocking last year by
Pro Football Focus.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
I believe that early in the draft, whether I'm going
for a running back or not, I mean, I'm I'm
just not looking Derek heny Henry's way this year.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
The most improved team in the NFL this year is
going to be the Houston Texans, which isn't a super
bowld stavement where they went like four games last year,
including the mistake win in Week eighteen, so it's not
super bold, but I'm really bullish on Houston. They traded
away Brandon Cooks to Dallas. They drafted the ironically named
(07:50):
Tank Dell just that he's just a weelow guy. I'm
lu gormout and naim for fantasy purposes. They also signed
mac wide receivers Robert Woods and Noah Brown. They don't
much for me.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
Let me throw us out there about Tank Dell real quick.
Some sites have him as Tank Dell and others have
his real name, which is Nathaniel So.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
Okay, yeah uh. They signed Dalan Schultz to replace Jordan Aikins,
and I'm I am interested in Jordan. Schultz is a
as as somebody that I think there's some value in.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
So much with Brevin Jordan, he was one of my
my sleepers briefly.
Speaker 1 (08:23):
Yeah, yeah, that's did And they signed a Devin Singletary
in the off season. He will be a back up
behind Damian Pierce. So willis offense be better? I already
tipped my hand on this. Yes, this Houston offense will
be better once c. J. Stroud hits his stride. The
offensive line isn't half bad. The loss of Brandon Cooks
can be replaced with John Metchi, remember he's coming back
(08:44):
from the leukemia, and Nico Collins should be better in
year three. I'm interested in Nico Collins too, and maybe
most importantly in Houston, we have a new and presumably
competent coaching staff. You get head coach DeMeco Ryans, who
I love. New offense coordinator Bobby Slowick comes from the
forty nine ers with Ryans where he was the passing
(09:05):
game coordinator. So I love that that we're bringing forty
Niner coaching reps to the Houston Texans. I just feel
like this whole coaching staff is going to take a
sizeable step up. So who's the most underdrafted player? If
you know me, you know I feel about Damian Pierce
(09:25):
being drafted way too low. He's going off the border
running back twenty, that's sixty fifth overall. Dude was quietly
great last year, Brian, but a lot of people didn't
see him play because he played for Houston, and he's
got room to do a lot more receiving this year.
He was a talented receiver at Florida. And again, back
(09:45):
to this forty nine ers offense. If we assuming we
were getting some some variation of a forty nine Ers
offense here, the offensive coordinator Bobby Slowk was part of
the forty nine Ers offense that threw the ball seven
times per game to running backs last year seven times.
Love it. If we're gonna get anywhere close to seven,
most that work is gonna go to Damian Pierce. He
has got sneaky PPR upside that he did not tap
(10:09):
into in his rookie year. So Damian Pierce to me,
is the most underdrafted player. Dalton Schultz is your honorable mention,
the most overdrafted player by ADP. To me, it's Devin Singletary.
I don't see him as to me totally just a guy.
He's just an injured replacement for Peers. He doesn't bring
much to the table stylistically, ability wise, he's not special.
(10:32):
So really nobody from you since really getting overdrafted. He's
running back fifty one hundred and fiftieth off the board.
But I don't even want Devin Singletary at that price.
Speaker 3 (10:40):
No, there are other backs in that range that are
more intriguing, rookies or other backups like don Jerome Ford
comes to my way. I'm not on Singletary too.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
What team do you want to do next? Well, I
got the Colts. Wait, actually, before we do Colts, let's
take a break. Let's work in a quick break. We'll
do the Indianapolis Colts, talk about the offseason moves and
our most over and under drafted players. When we come back.
(11:09):
Welcome back, Paul Charchion, Brian Johnson with you. Now, let's
talk about the Colts.
Speaker 3 (11:14):
The Colts yeah, a lot, a lot of a lot
of change, yes, starting with quarterback Matt Ryan retired. Now,
like a zombie extra on the Walking Dead set, I
would imagine, I'm sorry, I can't shouldn't take my shots
at Matt Ryan.
Speaker 1 (11:28):
I feel bad for Matt right now. What's what's not
to like?
Speaker 3 (11:32):
His play was not a lot to like towards the
end of his career. But anyway, he's gotten a bad
rap for a lot of reasons.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
You're gonna see him every Sunday? Is he I think
he's Fox. He went to the I think he's in
the Fox booth, right.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
Yeah, I think that sounds about right. He seems like
a Fox guy. But I bet he's good in the booth.
But anyway, he's gone. As most know, the Indie drafted
quarterback Anthony Richardson with the third overall pick.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
I believe second.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
I always get to give you a third. Yeah, second
quarterback taken. They also signed Gardner Minshew who we'll talk
about both those guys in a minute, but totally revamped
the quarterback position in Indie. They also drafted wide receiver
Josh Downs, who a lot of people are high on,
including us. Figures to work a lot out of the slot.
Also signed Isaiah McKenzie, who compete with downs Ye presumably
(12:19):
presumably for those slot snaps, but like the rookie, a
lot more in that battle. But those are the most
of the off season moves that matter. Well, the offense
be better or worse than last year. It's got to
be better. Shouldn't be hard to be better than last year.
Jonathan Taylor needs to stay healthy. Of course, last year.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
Got hurt in Week one. Never the same all year.
Offensive line was awful.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
Offensive line was awful. Matt Ryan struggle. There wasn't all
his fault. It was a brutal year. So you can
only things can only get better for the Colts. One
would think the most underdrafted player. I know you'll love
this one. They all come in pretty good value except
one guy who will be the most overdrafted player. We'll
talk about in a minute. But his tight end, Jolanni Woods.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
Yeah, baby, all right talking. I mean he's.
Speaker 3 (13:01):
Basically Woods tight end thirty three, just the absolute mountain
of a man. He's bigger than the offensive lineman in
the huddle, but he's athletic. Clear red zone target. There
are other red zone targets with the Colts, and they
still have Moley Cox, but Woods is They've gotta give
Woods the snaps. I mean, this guy looks just like
(13:23):
an absolute freak. So you know, if you're only three
tight ends late, you know you're you're kind of fading
tight ends throwing darts at the end, or you're taking
one backup. Gotta love Woods in the last round of
virtually any drafter in with.
Speaker 1 (13:38):
He's my favorite tight end sleeper across all thirty two teams.
Johnny Woods and Shane Steichen came from Philly where he
saw Zach Ertz and Dallas Goddard be massive parts of
those offenses. And this is the guy. Woods is the
guy who's got the athletic profile to do with what
Ertz and actually he's got a better athletic profile than
either Ertz or Goddard. Oh yeah, if it comes together
(14:01):
for him as a sophomore this year, oh man, I'm
excited about Johnny. WI was hoping he's my second tight
end in all my.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
Leagues right on, and the most overdrafted player. And again
we're talking strictly redraft here, really, not Dynasty Empire. It's
Anthony Richardson quarterback ten, right.
Speaker 1 (14:18):
Now, All that's just that's aggressive.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
We're not sure he's gonna start the season. My hunch
is they're gonna go with Minchew, see how it goes,
and then go to Richardson, who he's gonna have growing pains.
Of course, the potential, the sky is the limit if
he can hit his ceiling with the rushing. Of course,
I he's got a cannon arm. But for all to
come together in his rookie year and just to go
(14:42):
at quarterback ten when it's such a deep position this year,
that's yeah, you're sinking a lot of a draft capital
into a rookie you might not even start the year.
So he's being way overdrafted by me. Yeah not buy
me too in my opinion. Yeah, look, I'm with you.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
Quarterback ten gets you Kirk Cousins, who's gonna get you
two touchdowns and two hundred and eighty yards every week.
And that's super super safe. And you know, obviously we're
totally aware of what rushing passing combo quarterbacks he's going
to do for Daniel Jones.
Speaker 3 (15:10):
Let me saw what Daniel Jones did as a rushing
quarterback last year and he I mean it's it's crazy
to me. Yeah, it could be wrong. I'll die on
this sill though.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
We all want him to succeed, and I hope he's great,
and I hope it's week one. But that's asking a
lot of a kid who was who got so few
starts in college. All right, Our final AFC South team
is the Jacksonville Jaguars. A bunch of offseason moves that
you should care about. First round pick a tackle for
Anton Harrison, who replaces Juwan Taylor, and Taylor was good,
(15:40):
so they needed somebody to fill that spot, and I
love they put a first rounder there. Third round pick
on Tank Bigsby, who muddies the water for Travis etm.
We'll talk more about that later. They gain remember Calvin
Ridley off his season long suspension, They let Marvin Jones
go back to Detroit, and then Evan Ingram got franchised.
But then the team spent a third rounder on Brent
(16:01):
Strange from Penn State, which range It was a little
bit of a strange pick, literally, So will this offense
be better worse than last year? It was a lot better
last year, but I think he gets a little bit
better this season. Two Trevor Lawrence has the upside to
be a top five passer in what is effectively a
second season. Is going to throw out that rookie year
(16:22):
Urban Meyer year. Yeah, Calvin Ridley's should be a major
upgrade over Marvin Jones, and Tank Bigsby is far better
than James Robinson or Snoop Connor. I mean, the depth
chart gets a lot better with Tank Bigsby there. So
who's the most underdrafted Jaguar Brian going in? I would
have I thought I was gonna be talking about Calvin Ridley,
but the public is very, very bullish on him. His
(16:44):
ADP is wide receiver sixteen, going before Christian Kirk, who
is coming off a wide receiver ten season. So there's
no there really isn't value to be had on Calvin Ridley.
The most underdrafted player is Tank Bigsby going up the
board right now, running back forty six, one hundred and
(17:06):
forty fourth overall.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
Man.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
People are totally missing the boat on how this thing's
gonna unwind. I'm confident Travis Etn will not be a
workhorse back. He's not built for it, and Doug Peterson
doesn't like to use single workhorse guys, and Bigsby's a
fascinating prospect. He's one of my favorite rookie runners coming
into this draft. And here's a critical component. Tank Bigsby's
(17:33):
gonna be the goal line back. Travis Dtn got thirteen
carries from inside the five last year. You know how
many touchdowns he got on thirteen carries, two three, that's it.
And he averaged zero point seven yards per carry inside
the five. These short yardage goal line carried, that's gonna
(17:56):
go to Tank Bigsby, and I think he's gonna be
in a regular rotation with etn SO.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
And Trevor Lawrence. An underrated runner too, especially at the
goal line. He's got some truck stick to him.
Speaker 1 (18:07):
Yeah, he's gonna sneak in some too. Travis and so
my most overdrafted player, as you can already see coming.
Travis Etn's at eight is. I think if you had
right now today this week, it's Friday, the sixteenth of June,
if I had to pick one player to hang my
hat on to disappoint fantasy players across all the teams,
(18:30):
it would be Travis Etn. Not that he's a terrible player,
but at running back fourteen thirty ninth player off the board.
You were getting a player with a lot of limitations.
He's not gonna be the goal line guy. He was
little used in the passing game last year, averaging just
two catches per game. That's it. And then you add
in Calvin Ridley, you add in Strange, you add in
(18:50):
Tank Bigsby, and I think there's the ball's gonna find
its way out of his hands, way more than people
think right now.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Yeah, it's an easy pass to me. On ETN you
can get guys like Aaron Jones, JK. Dobbins, Joe Mixon,
like half a round. Yeah, around later and that this
feels a lot safer than an.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
Let's go to the NFC South. Which team would you
like to start with, Brian, Let's go with the Bucks.
We'll this shouldn't take get it over with Yeah, tear
the band aid off on the Bucks.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
So Tom Brady retired probably as of right now, he's retired.
Bucks signed Baker Mayfield to compete with Kyle Trask. Mayfield
likely to start the year, but really only a conversation
for super flex leagues, and he's not a starter in
super Flex League.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
Neither are they.
Speaker 3 (19:39):
They're both depth guys, So not a lot of excitement
at the quarterback position. Maybe next year it will be
exciting times at quarterback for the Bucks. The Bucks let
Leonard for net Walk in free agency. They did sign
Chase Edmonds, but he is dead to me after last
year just killed me in many leagues.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
I was pretty high on him. That was stupid. Not
again this year.
Speaker 3 (20:00):
So as of right now, it's the Chod the ri
Chad White show that said, I think the Bucks are
a candidate to land, probably not Leonard Fournette, and maybe
Zeke Elliott, Kareem Hunt, maybe Dalvin Cook sort of close
enough to his home in Miami. So we'll see if
that backfield is cemented right now. But as of right now,
it's Rachad White all the way. Others who are no
(20:22):
longer with the Bucks, we don't really care about Julio Jones,
Scottie Miller, Cameron Break, Kyle Rudolph.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
No one cares.
Speaker 3 (20:28):
The offense will be worse this year, even though Tom
Brady was like fifty significant downgrade at quarterback. They're not
going to get better with Baker Mayfield the most underdrafted player.
It's kind of both to me, it's Mike Evans and
Chris Godwin their quarterback.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
They've both loft ceilings fall out. These are both guys
being taken in what the top twelve last year Evan.
Now they're going in the thirties. Right that receiver.
Speaker 3 (20:51):
Evans is wide receiver thirty four. He's going like a
round later than Godwin, so I'll go with him.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
Again.
Speaker 3 (20:57):
We don't like the quarterbacks, but Evans, he's still gonna
to push for that one thousand yards you would think
if he stays healthy seven eight touchdowns, So at wide
receiver thirty four, that seems a little too cheap, even
with Baker Mayfield throwing him the ball and the most
overdrafted player. It's tough. I said, I like for Chad White,
but right now it's him, Beau. He's the only bucket's
(21:17):
really getting drafted.
Speaker 1 (21:19):
There's nobody else that qualifies.
Speaker 3 (21:21):
He's going as RB twenty six, eighty sixth overall.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
Obviously feels about right.
Speaker 3 (21:26):
It feels about right for now, but that that could
get blown up with a free agent signing. So that's
my only concern there really. But I like it a
lot more in PPR than in standard leagues. But I
still don't think he's gonna be a bell cow should
mention Sean Tucker was an intriguing prospect coming out of Sarahcuse,
but he had he basically didn't do any drills combine
pro day. He was signed as an undrafted free agent
(21:48):
and people we had him as a top ten running
back going to the draft, rookie running back, So a
little intrigued by him. So I gotta keep your eye
on so Richard White though, if I had to pick an
overdrafted player, would be him.
Speaker 1 (21:58):
Offensive line was battle last year, projects to be bad
this year, although they're coming back healthy year, but just
the talent drop off from from just as recently as
a couple of years ago, it's been dramatic across that
offensive line.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
The tanking has started already. Yeah there, I mean they
want Williams.
Speaker 1 (22:14):
They do. I mean, you know, they're playing for next
year's quarterback this year in Tampa, and it's totally the
right thing to do. I'll go to the Atlanta Falcons.
The offseason moves that matter really just one, and it
was the draft day selection of Bejhon Robinson to an
offense that had the second highest run play percentage last year.
(22:35):
And here's what's really fascinating about the second highest run
play percentage from last year. All the teams, the teams
that finished first, third, and fourth had Justin Field's Lamar
Jackson and Jalen Hurts. They had rushing quarterbacks designed to
place for their rushing quarterbacks. The Falcons didn't you know,
they were not doing design plays for Marcus Mariota and
(22:57):
Desmond Ritter, and yet they had the second highest run
play percentage. Arthur Arthur Blank Smith Blank Arthur Smith loves
to run the ball, so b John Robinson is a
tantalizing uh improvement. Also, the Falcons brought in a mac
Collins who popped a bit in Las Vegas. Well, uh,
I think he's I think he's got a little sneaky
(23:18):
to him. Yeah, and he's gonna he's gonna start. He's
gonna start opposite Drake London.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
We talked about DeAndre Hopkins earlier in the show. He
makes a ton of sense to me in Atlanta. He
wants to compete. This is the softest division in the
NFL right by far. And they needed wide.
Speaker 1 (23:34):
They got Kyle. They got two wide.
Speaker 3 (23:36):
Receivers and Kyle Pits and Drake one, and I don't know,
and I think they have the money. It seems like
it seems like there could be something there For me.
You'd have to convince him there's that they're gonna pass. Yeah,
which is really at the end of the day, what's
killed Kyle Pitts more than anything else.
Speaker 1 (23:48):
This team doesn't send, it doesn't pass anyway. Will the
offense be better or worse this year? It's a second
it's the second year for Desmond Ritter. Yeah, in the
acquisition of Robinson Ssumably Kyle Pitts stays healthy and then
if Kyle Pitts doesn't, they can actually improve the position
with John Hu Smith. John hu Smith reunited with Arthur
(24:08):
Smith from their days in Tennessee. Oh, I'm not rooting
for injury because we don't do that here. But if
anything happens to Kyle Pitts game on John U Johanu.
The most underdrafted player by ADP, Now, Brian, I know
what you would say. The most underdrafted player by ADP
is Kyle Pitts. By the way, going off the board
is tight end five. I mean, there's really not value
(24:31):
to be had there on Kyle Pitts. Tyler were he here,
he would tell you that Desmond Ritter going off the
board as quarterback thirty. He's very bullish on Desmond Ritter.
I am going to take the discarded remains of Tyler
Algier as the most underdrafted player. His stock is plummeted
(24:52):
to running back forty eight, one hundred and fifty fifth overall,
and we don't know for sure going to get into
the most overdrafted player here too. B. Jhon Robinson's going
off the board is running back three, tenth pick overall,
running back three. And I love the guy, don't get
me wrong. I think he's gonna be a very good player.
But do we know for sure that Arthur Smith will
(25:14):
a ditch the committee that he has used ever since
he got to Atlanta, including the shockling effective Tyler Algier,
who I think you can make a case for is
being significantly underdrafted. And B is he gonna throw to
his runners something he's never done in Atlanta or Tennessee.
Is Bjhon Robinson gonna get all the PPR help that
you need to validate a running back three overall top
(25:37):
ten draft pick. We don't know that that's the case.
And there's also a case to be made for Arthur
Smith to look at this team and go, you know what,
is this the year I want to put three hundred
and twenty touches onto Bjhon Robinson this year? Maybe not?
I mean this isn't like their Super Bowl run year, right,
(25:58):
That would presumably be next year if it turns out
Desmond Ridder is good enough to has got.
Speaker 3 (26:02):
To prove to be the guy. It's like fully unleashed Bijon. Yeah,
and the Marshall Falk Yeah, like we got our current
Warner types. But yeah, a guy like Bijeng going in
the first round if his backup who is a capable
backup Tyler.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
Algier was we know from last year at over a
thousand yards.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
Yeah, he's a pretty easy buy even if you, like
I said, the crossover appeal. He's a he's gonna be
a handcuff if if you're worried about Bijon being if
you don't have him, Uh could be a league winner
if something were to happen to Bijon, and something could
happen to anyone.
Speaker 1 (26:32):
In this game. Correct, Let's go to Carolina, all right.
Speaker 3 (26:36):
A lot of a lot of change in Carolina. Boy
drafted Bryce Young number one overall traded DJ Moore as
part of that package. More no longer a wide receiver
in Carolina. They brought in wide receivers Adam Thielen and
DJ Shark via free agency, drafted Jonathan Mingo. So a
(26:56):
lot of change at wide receiver.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
Yeah, that's your one, two and three receiver right there,
and they're all new.
Speaker 3 (27:02):
So much for the Terriss Marshall truthers. I don't know
if that's ever gonna come to fruition, but we'll see,
you know, Adam feel and see what he's got in
the tank. DJ Shark has struggled to stay healthy at times,
but as of now, those are the top three. Dante
Foreman left via free agency. He's on the Bears too
now with DJ Moore. So, the Carolina signed running back
(27:22):
Miles Sanders. He is you're starting running back as of
right now.
Speaker 1 (27:27):
A little I'm not.
Speaker 3 (27:29):
Too excited about Sanders. We'll talk about him more in
a minute. And Uh Hayden Hurst also signed uh in
free agency as a starting tight end. So like basically
a totally revamped offense. YEP, in Carolina offense should be better.
I mean we're going like from Sam Darnold they traded
Christian McCaffrey last year. They they basically had DJ Moore
and that was about Yeah, so even though Bryce Young
(27:52):
is a rookie, they did they did bulk up at
receiver Sanders. I would call that an upgrade over Dante
Foreman Hayden Hurst.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
They never used their tight ends in Carolina, So we'll
see how that goes, but I'll say the offense will
be better. My most underdrafted player is Chuba Hubbard, though
going off the board as oh interestinging back fifty six,
that's one hundred and eighty second overall. That's because Miles
Sanders is my most overdrafted player going off the board
is RB nineteen. People expecting him just to be this
(28:23):
magical bell cow. He's never been on better offenses where
he's kind of The door was open for him in Philly,
but he.
Speaker 1 (28:32):
Just never Everybody assumed it was scheme, and you know,
like coaches. The coaches didn't want to make him a
workhorse less than he could be a workhorse. But I
don't know about that.
Speaker 3 (28:40):
Yeah, I just don't think he was good enough to
command the line share of the touches. So and you
can't convince me that just apples to apples. Miles Sanders
is that much better of a running back than Chewba Hubbard.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
So Cuba Ubbard has had opportunities or they needed to
start him.
Speaker 3 (28:57):
He's had some good games when he's.
Speaker 1 (28:58):
Got little touches.
Speaker 3 (28:59):
It's just I don't know, if you're not getting one
of the top three or four running backs, you're kind
of stockpiling running backs this year because you know, again,
the bell cow is a dying breed, and just Chuba
Hubbard is a late round target that I'm going back.
Speaker 1 (29:14):
I kind of like Theling because here's why. I think
Thelan's gonna get the vast He's gonna buy buy a lot.
He's gonna be the target leader on the Panthers. He's
for a young quarterback, Adam, theland's gonna be in the
right place. He's got elite hands. You know your young
quarterback knows if I just deliver a catchable ball there,
my guy's gonna catch it. I think Theling's quietly sitting
(29:36):
on not a totally non explosive but still competent year
as a number one receiver. So yeah, he's going off
the board at like wide receiver forty.
Speaker 3 (29:46):
Yeah, he was in the mix in this con though,
but I don't know. He looked like he lost a
step last year. Hopefully did he get the best step.
But we'll see see what happens.
Speaker 1 (29:55):
Last one for the show is New Orleans Saints. Derek
Carr replaces Andy Dalton, and I'm to talk more about
that and why it may be way more of a
lateral move than you think it is. Details coming. They
added two runners to a backfield that already had Alvin Kamara,
rookie Kendry Miller, and last year's touchdown leader Jamal Williams.
So will this offense be better or worse than last year?
(30:17):
I believe it's going to be much more similar to
last year than most people do. Everybody thinks that this
is this isn't an offense that's going to be a
lot better. Allow me to repeat some of the stuff
we talked about on the Chris o'lave Fantasy Football Weekly
micro about Derek Carr and Andy Dalton. I think you
(30:37):
will be surprised. Completion percentage Dalton was seven percent more complete,
more accurate than Carr. So advantage Dalton, yards per attempt
Dalton seven point six, car seven point zero. Everybody thinks
that this is going to unlock a deep downfield passing
(30:58):
attack with Derek Carr not necessarily Advantage Dalton PFF passer grade.
Dalton was sixth sixth among passers last year. Carr was
twenty fifth, and remember they benched him and let him
walk for nothing from the Raiders. Advantage Dalton. In next
gen stats expected completion percentage, Car was sixth worst and
(31:22):
all five quarterbacks under him were starters who got bench
during the season. Advantage Dalton.
Speaker 3 (31:28):
I feel like I'm watching the tennis match right now.
Speaker 1 (31:31):
Advantage Dalton got a tennis name. Deep passes. They're both bad.
Cars adjusted completion percentage was thirty nine percent. Dalton's was
thirty one percent. They're both bad. And here's the here's
the last thing I'll mention in these two Troublingly, Dalton
last year in New Orleans was better than Carr and
all these metrics, and he had the second shortest time
(31:52):
to throw in the NFL. Here comes Car. If he's
got the second shortest time to throw, I can't tell
you he's going to be better than he was last year,
even an improvement over Andy Dalton. So then at in
the depth. Running back is gonna be nice and that
part helps this offense. But I think the passing game
is going to be way more even from what it
(32:13):
was last year to this year. The most underdrafted player
by a mile and one of my favorite sleepers Brian
Probably one of mine too, Rashid Shahed. Baby, I do
love to say, Rashid Shahed wide receiver, seventy five going
off the board pick one sixty six. Remember last year,
(32:34):
undrafted rookie, lightly used until the midway point of the season,
and then suddenly dudes are making splash plays. He debuted
in Week seven, promptly scored a forty four yard rushing
touchdown a fifty three yard receiving touchdown. Over his final
five games, all of them as a starter, Rashid Shahed
(32:55):
went from undrafted wide receiver to starting the December game
for the Saints. Over those five games, he averaged four
catches for sixty five yards. Undrafted receiver, he caught eighty
two percent of his passes. On the year. He had
(33:15):
a very healthy a dot of eleven and a half yards.
He finished thirtieth in yards after catch per catch, which
isn't bad. Dude can be he's fast. He's Rashid chaheat
is fast. He get this. He finished last year's Pro
Football Focus Is twenty six ranked wide receiver, ahead of
Jerry Judy and Chris Godwin and DJ Moore and a
(33:36):
dozen other household names. He's gonna beat out Michael Thomas
and he's gonna be the starting number two receiver for
the New Orleans Saints. Rashid Shaheed, I love it.
Speaker 3 (33:47):
Yeah, what's the over underun games played by Michael Thomas?
Speaker 1 (33:52):
Like six? I'll take six. What do you think? Well,
I was gonna say eight and a half. Set the
lineup eight a half games season one, about four years. Yeah,
I'll believe it. Yeah, when I see it, the most
overdrafted player, I gotta go. Chris all love even though
I love the guy and totally love the skill set,
but everything I just told you about Derek Carr not
really being the upgrade. He's going off the board at
(34:13):
wide receiver twelve. He finished last year as wide receiver
twenty four. So he's got to make a jump from
twenty four to twelve to be good at that eight,
to meet that ADP expectation. I don't I don't know
if he can.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
Yeah, I'd take DeVonta Smith. Well, so he's going before
DeVante Smith. T Higgins definitely would take t Higgins over
a lave Ebo Samuel going more about a round later
than a Lave, which is kind of crazy. Amari Cooper, Yeah, yeah,
there's a lot of a lot of risk baked into
a Lave this year. For sure, love him as a
player like you do, but might not be the best situation.
Speaker 1 (34:45):
We'll be back next week. We will break down the
teams in the West, AFC West, the NFC West. We'll
talk through those and again a lot of it's just
unearthing some of the great sleepers and values that we have,
and the players were nervous about it where they're getting drafted,
getting you ready to draft and hopefully at a guillotine league.
Talk to you a week everybody, Bye bye. Fantasy Football
Weekly is a production of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio,
(35:09):
visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen
to your favorite shows.
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeart Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and
whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now,
here's your host, Paul Charian.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Welcome Fantasy Football Weekly. I am Paul Charchian. Co host
Brian Johnson. Hello, what's up, charts.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
We are fighting. We're not fighting the wildfires in Canada.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Not literally, they're not either, by the way. But yeah,
we've got a serious air quality issue. So we'll be
clearing our throats. Yeah a little bit at times. Yep,
we may sound a little gravelly. We may be killing
Mike's from time to time to uh clear the throats. Yeah,
it's it's it's weird. You know.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
New York got it bad. Yeah, I got a lot
of family so friends out in that region. It looked
way worse than here.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
Yes, but here's the thing about Canada, and I say,
why they're not actually fighting it. They're like, there's nothing
we can do. It's so big. This thing is just
gonna run until it puts itself out or winter comes.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
Okay, I made an awful joke an awful tweet.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
I'll share it here. You think they're so awful, you're
gonna you're gonna share, all right, run run it by you.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
Uh, how did it go?
Speaker 1 (01:19):
Okay? Yeah? Uh?
Speaker 3 (01:20):
You think they could control those fires up in Canada
better with all the hosers.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Oh that's good. That's it. Yeah, that's It's a dad joke,
but I like it the best jokes. That's really good. Uh.
Like last you know, last week, we broke down the
teams of the a f C and NFC East, and
as I was prepping up for today's show, which is
the a f C and NFC South, I realized, really
what this is more than anything else, as we break
down each one of these teams, For me, it's a
(01:47):
sleeper show. You know. I get all excited about some
sleeper who I really think is sitting out of good
years being being underdrafted, and we identify the most underdrafted
player on each one of the eight teams that we're
going to cover today and the most overdrafted player. So
it's a sleeper bust show as much as anything else.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
Yeah, I think can you recall at this point in
the offseason, I mean we're in OTAs now where there's
five six big name free agents still out there. Yeah,
like DeAndre Hopkins, Dalvin Cook, yeah, Ezekiel Elliottree Fond yeah,
Fournette Yeah.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
So we'll preview all these we have to preview. We're
at this point in the.
Speaker 3 (02:24):
Off season where you're previewing teams, but right not every
team is set in stone. But we'll just have to
see where those guys end up. But as of right now,
they are available.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
We'll drive it dive into the AFC South in just
a moment here. But a reminder, Guillotine leagues dot Com
now live. You can get all my player rankings for free,
get my cheat sheet for free. You can also get
the premium Guillotine specific cheat sheet. We've got a new
mobile app that's coming it at the end of this month.
We're very excited about that. And lots of different ways
to play private leagues with your friends, public contests at
(02:54):
whatever prize level you want, and are high stakes leagues
called Super Chop one hundred and forty four team. It's
the ultimate challenge in the Guillotine League universe.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
This is the fifty dollars one It's almost a quarter
full already yeah, baby, teams will have multiples of those.
And it's not too early to draft the aforementioned free
agents we were talking about.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
You get them cheaper now.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
Since they sign, it doesn't matter where they sign, their
value goes those up.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
So it's true, it is not too early. And the
people kind of people are listening to this show now.
You know, our listenership goes way up as the as
the season gets closer. The people are listening now. You man,
you're you are way ahead of most on this and
your ability to go crush a draft this time of
year is better than it's going to be later when
(03:37):
everybody catches up. All right, let's go to the FC south, Brian,
what team would you like to start with.
Speaker 3 (03:43):
Let's start with the Titans. Okay, off season moves it
matter for Tennessee. DeAndre Hopkins perhaps maybe first team he visited,
has not signed with Tennessee, so we'll just have to
wait and see there. Other than that, not a lot
of major moves in the off season. And now Robert
Woods and tight end Austin Hooper are no longer with
(04:04):
the team that leaves the receiving corpus Traylon Brooks really
the only guy you want. And then there's Nick Westbrook
at keene and Kyle Phillips there they're deep league dark throats.
It's really all about Treylon Brooks at wide receiver. And
we'll talk about the other tight end a little later.
Who's still with the team now that Hooper is gone.
(04:24):
And lastly, the Titans drafted running back ty J Spears
and quarterback Will Levis. Both not an immediate threat to
the you know the incumbents at the respective positions, Derrick
Henry and Ryan Tannehill, but they should have an impact
this year. We'll talk a little more about Spears in
a minute. Will the offense be better or worse than
(04:45):
last year?
Speaker 1 (04:47):
This is kind of a loaded question.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
It's gonna be better, It's gonna be a little bit better.
I mean, Tannehill was a hurt a lot last year.
Don't for Malik Willis, but now he's he's QB three
and if something happened to Tannehill, Levis has I'm intriguing upside.
He's got a lot of bust potential as well. But
they're not gonna miss Robert Woods, a Ton nor Austin Hooper.
Treylon Burks was injured a lot last year as well.
(05:10):
Hopefully he's fully healthy and in his second year he
should take a take a step, so we will go
towards better. My most underdrafted player by ADP, you'd think
it's Chicka koon Quill, who is now the starting tight end.
People are onto him, so yeah, he's he's like the
consensus sleeper, so he's no longer a sleeper. Crazically, I've
watched his ADP rise and rise jumped over month because
(05:32):
I've been drafted since February, so he's not really a
sleeper anymore. He's going off the board as tight end
twelve right now, so that's that's a tight end one.
That's a tight end one. So I still love him,
don't get me wrong, but he's he's not underdrafted by
any means. I'm gonna go with ty J. Spears one
hundred and seventy sixth overall running back, fifty four. He
has crossover appeal in that if you draft Derrick Henry,
(05:54):
you want He's one of my handcuffs, my must handcuffs Spears.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
But he's also a guy I'm.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
Drafting if I don't have Derrick Henry, because we're gonna
talk about Dereck Henry in but yeah, ty J Speers,
I don't like his long term potential per se because
he basically has no knees left.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
He's had some major knee issues.
Speaker 3 (06:11):
But right this year I'm looking at this year, we're
looking at an aging Derrick Henry and ty J Spears
probably as healthy as he's going to be in his
NFL career. So at running back fifty four, I'm loving
the value there and.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
Well, and you know, Henry has Henry could can falter
a lot of different ways at this stage of his career.
Right all the miles that are on him, he might
just take a big step down. We all know what
the running back position. When the end comes, it comes quickly.
Derick Henry might be at the end right now. This
could be it, so Spears could get used that way.
He could finally break down. For a guy who's been
(06:46):
a great workhorse back, Derrick Henry could finally break down too.
That would give Spears an opportunity to Yeah.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
You basically, and that is why Henry Derrick Henry is
my most overdrafted player right now, going off of the
board at RB eight, twenty fifth overall. So he's end
of the second, early third. But like you said, this
is the epitome of mitigating the age Cliff he is
at that age, especially for a running back. Gap twenty
nine doesn't catch a ton. And yeah, it's not an
(07:13):
exciting offense either. They used to have such a dominant offensive.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
Line right of the case, so their line I think
was ranked dead last and run blocking last year by
Pro Football Focus.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
I believe that early in the draft, whether I'm going
for a running back or not, I mean, I'm I'm
just not looking Derek heny Henry's way this year.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
The most improved team in the NFL this year is
going to be the Houston Texans, which isn't a super
bowld stavement where they went like four games last year,
including the mistake win in Week eighteen, so it's not
super bold, but I'm really bullish on Houston. They traded
away Brandon Cooks to Dallas. They drafted the ironically named
(07:50):
Tank Dell just that he's just a weelow guy. I'm
lu gormout and naim for fantasy purposes. They also signed
mac wide receivers Robert Woods and Noah Brown. They don't
much for me.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
Let me throw us out there about Tank Dell real quick.
Some sites have him as Tank Dell and others have
his real name, which is Nathaniel So.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
Okay, yeah uh. They signed Dalan Schultz to replace Jordan Aikins,
and I'm I am interested in Jordan. Schultz is a
as as somebody that I think there's some value in.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
So much with Brevin Jordan, he was one of my
my sleepers briefly.
Speaker 1 (08:23):
Yeah, yeah, that's did And they signed a Devin Singletary
in the off season. He will be a back up
behind Damian Pierce. So willis offense be better? I already
tipped my hand on this. Yes, this Houston offense will
be better once c. J. Stroud hits his stride. The
offensive line isn't half bad. The loss of Brandon Cooks
can be replaced with John Metchi, remember he's coming back
(08:44):
from the leukemia, and Nico Collins should be better in
year three. I'm interested in Nico Collins too, and maybe
most importantly in Houston, we have a new and presumably
competent coaching staff. You get head coach DeMeco Ryans, who
I love. New offense coordinator Bobby Slowick comes from the
forty nine ers with Ryans where he was the passing
(09:05):
game coordinator. So I love that that we're bringing forty
Niner coaching reps to the Houston Texans. I just feel
like this whole coaching staff is going to take a
sizeable step up. So who's the most underdrafted player? If
you know me, you know I feel about Damian Pierce
(09:25):
being drafted way too low. He's going off the border
running back twenty, that's sixty fifth overall. Dude was quietly
great last year, Brian, but a lot of people didn't
see him play because he played for Houston, and he's
got room to do a lot more receiving this year.
He was a talented receiver at Florida. And again, back
(09:45):
to this forty nine ers offense. If we assuming we
were getting some some variation of a forty nine Ers
offense here, the offensive coordinator Bobby Slowk was part of
the forty nine Ers offense that threw the ball seven
times per game to running backs last year seven times.
Love it. If we're gonna get anywhere close to seven,
most that work is gonna go to Damian Pierce. He
has got sneaky PPR upside that he did not tap
(10:09):
into in his rookie year. So Damian Pierce to me,
is the most underdrafted player. Dalton Schultz is your honorable mention,
the most overdrafted player by ADP. To me, it's Devin Singletary.
I don't see him as to me totally just a guy.
He's just an injured replacement for Peers. He doesn't bring
much to the table stylistically, ability wise, he's not special.
(10:32):
So really nobody from you since really getting overdrafted. He's
running back fifty one hundred and fiftieth off the board.
But I don't even want Devin Singletary at that price.
Speaker 3 (10:40):
No, there are other backs in that range that are
more intriguing, rookies or other backups like don Jerome Ford
comes to my way. I'm not on Singletary too.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
What team do you want to do next? Well, I
got the Colts. Wait, actually, before we do Colts, let's
take a break. Let's work in a quick break. We'll
do the Indianapolis Colts, talk about the offseason moves and
our most over and under drafted players. When we come back.
(11:09):
Welcome back, Paul Charchion, Brian Johnson with you. Now, let's
talk about the Colts.
Speaker 3 (11:14):
The Colts yeah, a lot, a lot of a lot
of change, yes, starting with quarterback Matt Ryan retired. Now,
like a zombie extra on the Walking Dead set, I
would imagine, I'm sorry, I can't shouldn't take my shots
at Matt Ryan.
Speaker 1 (11:28):
I feel bad for Matt right now. What's what's not
to like?
Speaker 3 (11:32):
His play was not a lot to like towards the
end of his career. But anyway, he's gotten a bad
rap for a lot of reasons.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
You're gonna see him every Sunday? Is he I think
he's Fox. He went to the I think he's in
the Fox booth, right.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
Yeah, I think that sounds about right. He seems like
a Fox guy. But I bet he's good in the booth.
But anyway, he's gone. As most know, the Indie drafted
quarterback Anthony Richardson with the third overall pick.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
I believe second.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
I always get to give you a third. Yeah, second
quarterback taken. They also signed Gardner Minshew who we'll talk
about both those guys in a minute, but totally revamped
the quarterback position in Indie. They also drafted wide receiver
Josh Downs, who a lot of people are high on,
including us. Figures to work a lot out of the slot.
Also signed Isaiah McKenzie, who compete with downs Ye presumably
(12:19):
presumably for those slot snaps, but like the rookie, a
lot more in that battle. But those are the most
of the off season moves that matter. Well, the offense
be better or worse than last year. It's got to
be better. Shouldn't be hard to be better than last year.
Jonathan Taylor needs to stay healthy. Of course, last year.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
Got hurt in Week one. Never the same all year.
Offensive line was awful.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
Offensive line was awful. Matt Ryan struggle. There wasn't all
his fault. It was a brutal year. So you can
only things can only get better for the Colts. One
would think the most underdrafted player. I know you'll love
this one. They all come in pretty good value except
one guy who will be the most overdrafted player. We'll
talk about in a minute. But his tight end, Jolanni Woods.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
Yeah, baby, all right talking. I mean he's.
Speaker 3 (13:01):
Basically Woods tight end thirty three, just the absolute mountain
of a man. He's bigger than the offensive lineman in
the huddle, but he's athletic. Clear red zone target. There
are other red zone targets with the Colts, and they
still have Moley Cox, but Woods is They've gotta give
Woods the snaps. I mean, this guy looks just like
(13:23):
an absolute freak. So you know, if you're only three
tight ends late, you know you're you're kind of fading
tight ends throwing darts at the end, or you're taking
one backup. Gotta love Woods in the last round of
virtually any drafter in with.
Speaker 1 (13:38):
He's my favorite tight end sleeper across all thirty two teams.
Johnny Woods and Shane Steichen came from Philly where he
saw Zach Ertz and Dallas Goddard be massive parts of
those offenses. And this is the guy. Woods is the
guy who's got the athletic profile to do with what
Ertz and actually he's got a better athletic profile than
either Ertz or Goddard. Oh yeah, if it comes together
(14:01):
for him as a sophomore this year, oh man, I'm
excited about Johnny. WI was hoping he's my second tight
end in all my.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
Leagues right on, and the most overdrafted player. And again
we're talking strictly redraft here, really, not Dynasty Empire. It's
Anthony Richardson quarterback ten, right.
Speaker 1 (14:18):
Now, All that's just that's aggressive.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
We're not sure he's gonna start the season. My hunch
is they're gonna go with Minchew, see how it goes,
and then go to Richardson, who he's gonna have growing pains.
Of course, the potential, the sky is the limit if
he can hit his ceiling with the rushing. Of course,
I he's got a cannon arm. But for all to
come together in his rookie year and just to go
(14:42):
at quarterback ten when it's such a deep position this year,
that's yeah, you're sinking a lot of a draft capital
into a rookie you might not even start the year.
So he's being way overdrafted by me. Yeah not buy
me too in my opinion. Yeah, look, I'm with you.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
Quarterback ten gets you Kirk Cousins, who's gonna get you
two touchdowns and two hundred and eighty yards every week.
And that's super super safe. And you know, obviously we're
totally aware of what rushing passing combo quarterbacks he's going
to do for Daniel Jones.
Speaker 3 (15:10):
Let me saw what Daniel Jones did as a rushing
quarterback last year and he I mean it's it's crazy
to me. Yeah, it could be wrong. I'll die on
this sill though.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
We all want him to succeed, and I hope he's great,
and I hope it's week one. But that's asking a
lot of a kid who was who got so few
starts in college. All right, Our final AFC South team
is the Jacksonville Jaguars. A bunch of offseason moves that
you should care about. First round pick a tackle for
Anton Harrison, who replaces Juwan Taylor, and Taylor was good,
(15:40):
so they needed somebody to fill that spot, and I
love they put a first rounder there. Third round pick
on Tank Bigsby, who muddies the water for Travis etm.
We'll talk more about that later. They gain remember Calvin
Ridley off his season long suspension, They let Marvin Jones
go back to Detroit, and then Evan Ingram got franchised.
But then the team spent a third rounder on Brent
(16:01):
Strange from Penn State, which range It was a little
bit of a strange pick, literally, So will this offense
be better worse than last year? It was a lot better
last year, but I think he gets a little bit
better this season. Two Trevor Lawrence has the upside to
be a top five passer in what is effectively a
second season. Is going to throw out that rookie year
(16:22):
Urban Meyer year. Yeah, Calvin Ridley's should be a major
upgrade over Marvin Jones, and Tank Bigsby is far better
than James Robinson or Snoop Connor. I mean, the depth
chart gets a lot better with Tank Bigsby there. So
who's the most underdrafted Jaguar Brian going in? I would
have I thought I was gonna be talking about Calvin Ridley,
but the public is very, very bullish on him. His
(16:44):
ADP is wide receiver sixteen, going before Christian Kirk, who
is coming off a wide receiver ten season. So there's
no there really isn't value to be had on Calvin Ridley.
The most underdrafted player is Tank Bigsby going up the
board right now, running back forty six, one hundred and
(17:06):
forty fourth overall.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
Man.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
People are totally missing the boat on how this thing's
gonna unwind. I'm confident Travis Etn will not be a
workhorse back. He's not built for it, and Doug Peterson
doesn't like to use single workhorse guys, and Bigsby's a
fascinating prospect. He's one of my favorite rookie runners coming
into this draft. And here's a critical component. Tank Bigsby's
(17:33):
gonna be the goal line back. Travis Dtn got thirteen
carries from inside the five last year. You know how
many touchdowns he got on thirteen carries, two three, that's it.
And he averaged zero point seven yards per carry inside
the five. These short yardage goal line carried, that's gonna
(17:56):
go to Tank Bigsby, and I think he's gonna be
in a regular rotation with etn SO.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
And Trevor Lawrence. An underrated runner too, especially at the
goal line. He's got some truck stick to him.
Speaker 1 (18:07):
Yeah, he's gonna sneak in some too. Travis and so
my most overdrafted player, as you can already see coming.
Travis Etn's at eight is. I think if you had
right now today this week, it's Friday, the sixteenth of June,
if I had to pick one player to hang my
hat on to disappoint fantasy players across all the teams,
(18:30):
it would be Travis Etn. Not that he's a terrible player,
but at running back fourteen thirty ninth player off the board.
You were getting a player with a lot of limitations.
He's not gonna be the goal line guy. He was
little used in the passing game last year, averaging just
two catches per game. That's it. And then you add
in Calvin Ridley, you add in Strange, you add in
(18:50):
Tank Bigsby, and I think there's the ball's gonna find
its way out of his hands, way more than people
think right now.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Yeah, it's an easy pass to me. On ETN you
can get guys like Aaron Jones, JK. Dobbins, Joe Mixon,
like half a round. Yeah, around later and that this
feels a lot safer than an.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
Let's go to the NFC South. Which team would you
like to start with, Brian, Let's go with the Bucks.
We'll this shouldn't take get it over with Yeah, tear
the band aid off on the Bucks.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
So Tom Brady retired probably as of right now, he's retired.
Bucks signed Baker Mayfield to compete with Kyle Trask. Mayfield
likely to start the year, but really only a conversation
for super flex leagues, and he's not a starter in
super Flex League.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
Neither are they.
Speaker 3 (19:39):
They're both depth guys, So not a lot of excitement
at the quarterback position. Maybe next year it will be
exciting times at quarterback for the Bucks. The Bucks let
Leonard for net Walk in free agency. They did sign
Chase Edmonds, but he is dead to me after last
year just killed me in many leagues.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
I was pretty high on him. That was stupid. Not
again this year.
Speaker 3 (20:00):
So as of right now, it's the Chod the ri
Chad White show that said, I think the Bucks are
a candidate to land, probably not Leonard Fournette, and maybe
Zeke Elliott, Kareem Hunt, maybe Dalvin Cook sort of close
enough to his home in Miami. So we'll see if
that backfield is cemented right now. But as of right now,
it's Rachad White all the way. Others who are no
(20:22):
longer with the Bucks, we don't really care about Julio Jones,
Scottie Miller, Cameron Break, Kyle Rudolph.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
No one cares.
Speaker 3 (20:28):
The offense will be worse this year, even though Tom
Brady was like fifty significant downgrade at quarterback. They're not
going to get better with Baker Mayfield the most underdrafted player.
It's kind of both to me, it's Mike Evans and
Chris Godwin their quarterback.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
They've both loft ceilings fall out. These are both guys
being taken in what the top twelve last year Evan.
Now they're going in the thirties. Right that receiver.
Speaker 3 (20:51):
Evans is wide receiver thirty four. He's going like a
round later than Godwin, so I'll go with him.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
Again.
Speaker 3 (20:57):
We don't like the quarterbacks, but Evans, he's still gonna
to push for that one thousand yards you would think
if he stays healthy seven eight touchdowns, So at wide
receiver thirty four, that seems a little too cheap, even
with Baker Mayfield throwing him the ball and the most
overdrafted player. It's tough. I said, I like for Chad White,
but right now it's him, Beau. He's the only bucket's
(21:17):
really getting drafted.
Speaker 1 (21:19):
There's nobody else that qualifies.
Speaker 3 (21:21):
He's going as RB twenty six, eighty sixth overall.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
Obviously feels about right.
Speaker 3 (21:26):
It feels about right for now, but that that could
get blown up with a free agent signing. So that's
my only concern there really. But I like it a
lot more in PPR than in standard leagues. But I
still don't think he's gonna be a bell cow should
mention Sean Tucker was an intriguing prospect coming out of Sarahcuse,
but he had he basically didn't do any drills combine
pro day. He was signed as an undrafted free agent
(21:48):
and people we had him as a top ten running
back going to the draft, rookie running back, So a
little intrigued by him. So I gotta keep your eye
on so Richard White though, if I had to pick an
overdrafted player, would be him.
Speaker 1 (21:58):
Offensive line was battle last year, projects to be bad
this year, although they're coming back healthy year, but just
the talent drop off from from just as recently as
a couple of years ago, it's been dramatic across that
offensive line.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
The tanking has started already. Yeah there, I mean they
want Williams.
Speaker 1 (22:14):
They do. I mean, you know, they're playing for next
year's quarterback this year in Tampa, and it's totally the
right thing to do. I'll go to the Atlanta Falcons.
The offseason moves that matter really just one, and it
was the draft day selection of Bejhon Robinson to an
offense that had the second highest run play percentage last year.
(22:35):
And here's what's really fascinating about the second highest run
play percentage from last year. All the teams, the teams
that finished first, third, and fourth had Justin Field's Lamar
Jackson and Jalen Hurts. They had rushing quarterbacks designed to
place for their rushing quarterbacks. The Falcons didn't you know,
they were not doing design plays for Marcus Mariota and
(22:57):
Desmond Ritter, and yet they had the second highest run
play percentage. Arthur Arthur Blank Smith Blank Arthur Smith loves
to run the ball, so b John Robinson is a
tantalizing uh improvement. Also, the Falcons brought in a mac
Collins who popped a bit in Las Vegas. Well, uh,
I think he's I think he's got a little sneaky
(23:18):
to him. Yeah, and he's gonna he's gonna start. He's
gonna start opposite Drake London.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
We talked about DeAndre Hopkins earlier in the show. He
makes a ton of sense to me in Atlanta. He
wants to compete. This is the softest division in the
NFL right by far. And they needed wide.
Speaker 1 (23:34):
They got Kyle. They got two wide.
Speaker 3 (23:36):
Receivers and Kyle Pits and Drake one, and I don't know,
and I think they have the money. It seems like
it seems like there could be something there For me.
You'd have to convince him there's that they're gonna pass. Yeah,
which is really at the end of the day, what's
killed Kyle Pitts more than anything else.
Speaker 1 (23:48):
This team doesn't send, it doesn't pass anyway. Will the
offense be better or worse this year? It's a second
it's the second year for Desmond Ritter. Yeah, in the
acquisition of Robinson Ssumably Kyle Pitts stays healthy and then
if Kyle Pitts doesn't, they can actually improve the position
with John Hu Smith. John hu Smith reunited with Arthur
(24:08):
Smith from their days in Tennessee. Oh, I'm not rooting
for injury because we don't do that here. But if
anything happens to Kyle Pitts game on John U Johanu.
The most underdrafted player by ADP, Now, Brian, I know
what you would say. The most underdrafted player by ADP
is Kyle Pitts. By the way, going off the board
is tight end five. I mean, there's really not value
(24:31):
to be had there on Kyle Pitts. Tyler were he here,
he would tell you that Desmond Ritter going off the
board as quarterback thirty. He's very bullish on Desmond Ritter.
I am going to take the discarded remains of Tyler
Algier as the most underdrafted player. His stock is plummeted
(24:52):
to running back forty eight, one hundred and fifty fifth overall,
and we don't know for sure going to get into
the most overdrafted player here too. B. Jhon Robinson's going
off the board is running back three, tenth pick overall,
running back three. And I love the guy, don't get
me wrong. I think he's gonna be a very good player.
But do we know for sure that Arthur Smith will
(25:14):
a ditch the committee that he has used ever since
he got to Atlanta, including the shockling effective Tyler Algier,
who I think you can make a case for is
being significantly underdrafted. And B is he gonna throw to
his runners something he's never done in Atlanta or Tennessee.
Is Bjhon Robinson gonna get all the PPR help that
you need to validate a running back three overall top
(25:37):
ten draft pick. We don't know that that's the case.
And there's also a case to be made for Arthur
Smith to look at this team and go, you know what,
is this the year I want to put three hundred
and twenty touches onto Bjhon Robinson this year? Maybe not?
I mean this isn't like their Super Bowl run year, right,
(25:58):
That would presumably be next year if it turns out
Desmond Ridder is good enough to has got.
Speaker 3 (26:02):
To prove to be the guy. It's like fully unleashed Bijon. Yeah,
and the Marshall Falk Yeah, like we got our current
Warner types. But yeah, a guy like Bijeng going in
the first round if his backup who is a capable
backup Tyler.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
Algier was we know from last year at over a
thousand yards.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
Yeah, he's a pretty easy buy even if you, like
I said, the crossover appeal. He's a he's gonna be
a handcuff if if you're worried about Bijon being if
you don't have him, Uh could be a league winner
if something were to happen to Bijon, and something could
happen to anyone.
Speaker 1 (26:32):
In this game. Correct, Let's go to Carolina, all right.
Speaker 3 (26:36):
A lot of a lot of change in Carolina. Boy
drafted Bryce Young number one overall traded DJ Moore as
part of that package. More no longer a wide receiver
in Carolina. They brought in wide receivers Adam Thielen and
DJ Shark via free agency, drafted Jonathan Mingo. So a
(26:56):
lot of change at wide receiver.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
Yeah, that's your one, two and three receiver right there,
and they're all new.
Speaker 3 (27:02):
So much for the Terriss Marshall truthers. I don't know
if that's ever gonna come to fruition, but we'll see,
you know, Adam feel and see what he's got in
the tank. DJ Shark has struggled to stay healthy at times,
but as of now, those are the top three. Dante
Foreman left via free agency. He's on the Bears too
now with DJ Moore. So, the Carolina signed running back
(27:22):
Miles Sanders. He is you're starting running back as of
right now.
Speaker 1 (27:27):
A little I'm not.
Speaker 3 (27:29):
Too excited about Sanders. We'll talk about him more in
a minute. And Uh Hayden Hurst also signed uh in
free agency as a starting tight end. So like basically
a totally revamped offense. YEP, in Carolina offense should be better.
I mean we're going like from Sam Darnold they traded
Christian McCaffrey last year. They they basically had DJ Moore
and that was about Yeah, so even though Bryce Young
(27:52):
is a rookie, they did they did bulk up at
receiver Sanders. I would call that an upgrade over Dante
Foreman Hayden Hurst.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
They never used their tight ends in Carolina, So we'll
see how that goes, but I'll say the offense will
be better. My most underdrafted player is Chuba Hubbard, though
going off the board as oh interestinging back fifty six,
that's one hundred and eighty second overall. That's because Miles
Sanders is my most overdrafted player going off the board
is RB nineteen. People expecting him just to be this
(28:23):
magical bell cow. He's never been on better offenses where
he's kind of The door was open for him in Philly,
but he.
Speaker 1 (28:32):
Just never Everybody assumed it was scheme, and you know,
like coaches. The coaches didn't want to make him a
workhorse less than he could be a workhorse. But I
don't know about that.
Speaker 3 (28:40):
Yeah, I just don't think he was good enough to
command the line share of the touches. So and you
can't convince me that just apples to apples. Miles Sanders
is that much better of a running back than Chewba Hubbard.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
So Cuba Ubbard has had opportunities or they needed to
start him.
Speaker 3 (28:57):
He's had some good games when he's.
Speaker 1 (28:58):
Got little touches.
Speaker 3 (28:59):
It's just I don't know, if you're not getting one
of the top three or four running backs, you're kind
of stockpiling running backs this year because you know, again,
the bell cow is a dying breed, and just Chuba
Hubbard is a late round target that I'm going back.
Speaker 1 (29:14):
I kind of like Theling because here's why. I think
Thelan's gonna get the vast He's gonna buy buy a lot.
He's gonna be the target leader on the Panthers. He's
for a young quarterback, Adam, theland's gonna be in the
right place. He's got elite hands. You know your young
quarterback knows if I just deliver a catchable ball there,
my guy's gonna catch it. I think Theling's quietly sitting
(29:36):
on not a totally non explosive but still competent year
as a number one receiver. So yeah, he's going off
the board at like wide receiver forty.
Speaker 3 (29:46):
Yeah, he was in the mix in this con though,
but I don't know. He looked like he lost a
step last year. Hopefully did he get the best step.
But we'll see see what happens.
Speaker 1 (29:55):
Last one for the show is New Orleans Saints. Derek
Carr replaces Andy Dalton, and I'm to talk more about
that and why it may be way more of a
lateral move than you think it is. Details coming. They
added two runners to a backfield that already had Alvin Kamara,
rookie Kendry Miller, and last year's touchdown leader Jamal Williams.
So will this offense be better or worse than last year?
(30:17):
I believe it's going to be much more similar to
last year than most people do. Everybody thinks that this
is this isn't an offense that's going to be a
lot better. Allow me to repeat some of the stuff
we talked about on the Chris o'lave Fantasy Football Weekly
micro about Derek Carr and Andy Dalton. I think you
(30:37):
will be surprised. Completion percentage Dalton was seven percent more complete,
more accurate than Carr. So advantage Dalton, yards per attempt
Dalton seven point six, car seven point zero. Everybody thinks
that this is going to unlock a deep downfield passing
(30:58):
attack with Derek Carr not necessarily Advantage Dalton PFF passer grade.
Dalton was sixth sixth among passers last year. Carr was
twenty fifth, and remember they benched him and let him
walk for nothing from the Raiders. Advantage Dalton. In next
gen stats expected completion percentage, Car was sixth worst and
(31:22):
all five quarterbacks under him were starters who got bench
during the season. Advantage Dalton.
Speaker 3 (31:28):
I feel like I'm watching the tennis match right now.
Speaker 1 (31:31):
Advantage Dalton got a tennis name. Deep passes. They're both bad.
Cars adjusted completion percentage was thirty nine percent. Dalton's was
thirty one percent. They're both bad. And here's the here's
the last thing I'll mention in these two Troublingly, Dalton
last year in New Orleans was better than Carr and
all these metrics, and he had the second shortest time
(31:52):
to throw in the NFL. Here comes Car. If he's
got the second shortest time to throw, I can't tell
you he's going to be better than he was last year,
even an improvement over Andy Dalton. So then at in
the depth. Running back is gonna be nice and that
part helps this offense. But I think the passing game
is going to be way more even from what it
(32:13):
was last year to this year. The most underdrafted player
by a mile and one of my favorite sleepers Brian
Probably one of mine too, Rashid Shahed. Baby, I do
love to say, Rashid Shahed wide receiver, seventy five going
off the board pick one sixty six. Remember last year,
(32:34):
undrafted rookie, lightly used until the midway point of the season,
and then suddenly dudes are making splash plays. He debuted
in Week seven, promptly scored a forty four yard rushing
touchdown a fifty three yard receiving touchdown. Over his final
five games, all of them as a starter, Rashid Shahed
(32:55):
went from undrafted wide receiver to starting the December game
for the Saints. Over those five games, he averaged four
catches for sixty five yards. Undrafted receiver, he caught eighty
two percent of his passes. On the year. He had
(33:15):
a very healthy a dot of eleven and a half yards.
He finished thirtieth in yards after catch per catch, which
isn't bad. Dude can be he's fast. He's Rashid chaheat
is fast. He get this. He finished last year's Pro
Football Focus Is twenty six ranked wide receiver, ahead of
Jerry Judy and Chris Godwin and DJ Moore and a
(33:36):
dozen other household names. He's gonna beat out Michael Thomas
and he's gonna be the starting number two receiver for
the New Orleans Saints. Rashid Shaheed, I love it.
Speaker 3 (33:47):
Yeah, what's the over underun games played by Michael Thomas?
Speaker 1 (33:52):
Like six? I'll take six. What do you think? Well,
I was gonna say eight and a half. Set the
lineup eight a half games season one, about four years. Yeah,
I'll believe it. Yeah, when I see it, the most
overdrafted player, I gotta go. Chris all love even though
I love the guy and totally love the skill set,
but everything I just told you about Derek Carr not
really being the upgrade. He's going off the board at
(34:13):
wide receiver twelve. He finished last year as wide receiver
twenty four. So he's got to make a jump from
twenty four to twelve to be good at that eight,
to meet that ADP expectation. I don't I don't know
if he can.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
Yeah, I'd take DeVonta Smith. Well, so he's going before
DeVante Smith. T Higgins definitely would take t Higgins over
a lave Ebo Samuel going more about a round later
than a Lave, which is kind of crazy. Amari Cooper, Yeah, yeah,
there's a lot of a lot of risk baked into
a Lave this year. For sure, love him as a
player like you do, but might not be the best situation.
Speaker 1 (34:45):
We'll be back next week. We will break down the
teams in the West, AFC West, the NFC West. We'll
talk through those and again a lot of it's just
unearthing some of the great sleepers and values that we have,
and the players were nervous about it where they're getting drafted,
getting you ready to draft and hopefully at a guillotine league.
Talk to you a week everybody, Bye bye. Fantasy Football
Weekly is a production of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio,
(35:09):
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