Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the carry Wood and Morning's podcast from
News Talk seed B.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
As you have heard in our news, the latest stats
in zed figers show the consumer price index rose three
point three percent in the year to June. That is
down from four points four percent in the year to
March this year.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Well down, krikey.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
The gottment got that high from seven point three percent
annually to June twenty two. Economists at forecast inflation would
land on three point three to three point five percent.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
So there we go.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Not bad. The Reserve Bank needs to see inflation back
within a target range of one to three percent, and
they want to see a sufficient drop in non tradable inflation.
That was five point four percent, down from five point
eight in March. Lots of numbers. New Zealand Herald Business
editor at largely m Dan lots of numbers. What do
(00:57):
they all mean?
Speaker 3 (00:59):
Yeah, well, I mean we'll take the wins right, so
I would say good news, like.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
What jeremid I know, be profit.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
Yeah, I mean we had the Reserve Bank picking three
point six and so this is lower than the Reserve
Bank picked. And we've already heard the Reserve Bank sort
of soften its tone last week some people would say,
sort of wake up to how grim things are out there.
So that had already got markets and economists excited about
(01:29):
the prospect of interest rates coming down in November.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Got Westpac moving on there.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
They've got Westpac moving No one's followed yet, but maybe
maybe there's a chance now. In fact, market's even more excited.
They do tend to get too excited, and they've priced
in an October cut as well. But you'll see that.
The difficulty is we don't get another lot of the
full inflation data until mid October. We've got three more
months to wait, which is always a bit of a problem.
But you still look, yeah, the tradeable inflation. This is
(01:57):
petrol prices and sort of the food commodity into food
and all that sort of stuff, fruit and vege in particular.
It's almost down to zero. It was zero point three
for the year, and I think it was actually backwards
for the for the quarter. So so that stuff, which
is actually a lot of a lot of the spending
that we do is really back in the box. And
(02:19):
it's good that the standouts. The bad stuff is non tradable,
and it's some of the stuff that we knew we've
already paid, you know, insurance rates going through the roof
council rates going up. That's sort of a big one off.
So we can hope that that comes out now through
the data.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
How are we going on our Booze.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
Oh that's a good question. Yeah, last I saw it
was because we've got a bit of that in the
selected price. And yes on Friday, you know that that's
still up a little bit. But what's up a lot.
It's still is drinking out and about in bars and restaurants.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
That's still really you wouldn't think so looking at the closures,
would you.
Speaker 3 (02:59):
Well, I guess they're in a tight bind. This this
data is backward looking, but you know, the costs have
gone up so much for those businesses are talking a
bit about hospitality and with hospitality people lately. You know,
I've got something a nine C side economics thing today
because you know, obviously SPQR was a big shock for
those of us that I saw that as a pond
some of the institution and you know, embarrassed ourselves there
(03:22):
in the nineties or whenever. But you know those guys,
you know, obviously you know they say Booze's recession proof.
It kind of is the The economists put it in
a discretionary category, and I've always sort of wondered whether
it's really discretionary. But where you consume it? And obviously
people are you know, opting to drink at home and things,
(03:44):
and so it is very, very tough. Those last things
to fall are the you know, the rents. The rent
rents are a problem.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
What on earth can you do about that? I mean this,
Karen says, can you ask Liam why non trade a
blunt fow is counted as its rates and rent and
insurance and we can't change that. There's nothing we can do.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
Yeah, but we I mean, unfortunately, we have to pay it.
So this is the sort of inflation on everything that
we pay for.
Speaker 2 (04:08):
No.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
I think this is the non tradable stuff is seen
by the Reserve Bank as the stuff that they do
have control over. We can't control oil prices around the
world when they go through the roof. We weirdly, we
can't really control even the price of cheese because even
though we make it all here, if on Terra can
get a great price in China, it'll sell it in
China and you'll have to pay that at the supermarket.
(04:30):
But when the Reserve Bank lifts the interest rates and
squeezes the economy and everyone's having a terrible time and
unemployments rising, then new wage bill starts to go down.
The housing market is really you know, subdued and flat,
and that.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Is more abundance.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
Yeah, yeah, And eventually that flows through to rents, you know,
so does it? Well?
Speaker 2 (04:52):
I mean, I haven't rented for ages and ages and ages,
but I can't recall a landlord ever saying, hey, good news,
your rent is going down.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
But it never goes down. It never goes down. And
I'm what I've heard is that certainly there are landlords
trying to get you up. Until a couple of months ago,
we're still trying to get last increases in. But it
gets harder and harder because the businesses will just close
and then there's empty shops, and then the landlords have
got to make a choice, you know, And sometimes, you know,
it probably annoys me a bit when I see empty shops,
(05:21):
I think, why won't these landlords actually drop me rents
and meet the market. But often they're doing what the
businesses are trying to do, which is look through the
cycle till till next year. When the interest rates are
down and things start to come back. So it's a
bit of a war of attrition there. But you know,
we've seen even and so that housing part is still
driving on trade of inflation, and some of that is
(05:42):
house building costs, but I think we've seen some data
that they are even starting to fall now, you know. So,
so you know, just having that depressed housing market doesn't
make us feel good about the price of our homes,
doesn't make New Zealanders feel like they got the wealth effect,
which you know, when house prices are up, we have
this wealth effect and consumers feel confident that's gone. But
(06:04):
it is doing the job. It is sucking demand out
of that market. And you know, so now we're in
the bit where I know from talking to small and
medium businesses that you know, the pain is very, very acute.
They're all talking about survived till twenty five. Retailers have
got it doubly hard, I guess, because they've got these
structural issues of people shopping online and all that sort
(06:25):
of stuff. But there is finally starting to be some
light at the end of the tunnel.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
When though everybody wants to know, when everybody's been holding
on yeah, crazy, Through the COVID years, through the storms
through it's just been bang after bang after When when
can we have plenty?
Speaker 3 (06:43):
I think, I mean, where the sentiment turns on the
first interest rate cut. It's hard to know, but some
of that comes down to leadership and if you've got
the government putting some good policies in place and selling
them well and talking up the country at the same
time as we get that first interest rate cut, which
really I mean, I can't promise anything, but I can
say it's looking very odds on I'm blaming you on. Sorry,
(07:04):
it is looking better. The odds are looking very strong
for a November rate cut, and you'll see the markets
be really enthusiastic here. They'll be pushing hard on October.
I feel like, you know, if you're the Reserve Bank,
you really do want to see inflation back below three
because if you don't do that and it bounces up,
then you know, it just just undoes all that hard work.
(07:27):
We don't want to go through this, Paine No, And
we're seeing in Australia, for example, that they've kind of
loosened off a bit both you know, they've got a
labor government, so it's spending a bit more, and they've
got a reserve bank which which took a pause, and
they've seen inflation bounce back up, and now that the
economists are talking about sort of middle of next year
for them. So I guess, you know, if we can
(07:48):
get through this a bit faster, that's a chance for
us to sort of get moving again. So what we
do with it from there, it's sort of down to
the leadership and how we react. But you know, because
you know, one rate cut doesn't change the maths for
a lot of businesses. The rates will still you know,
interest rates will still be quite high.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
But it's confidence. It's confidence and wheather and like yesterday
was sunny and all.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
People feel better, you do.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
You just feel like you can achieve more and accomplish more,
and then down comes the raining.
Speaker 3 (08:21):
And it is weird when the cycle is at its most,
you know, you know, at the toughest part of the
economic cycle lands in the middle of winter, as it
also did in two thousand and nine the GFC, and
I remember that being a very very tough one as well.
It does feel a lot worse somehow, even though all
the data might say it's tough in summer you sort
of feel like you can just go to the peaches.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
You don't have to be rich in summer. Everybody's rich
if you live in New York.
Speaker 3 (08:46):
And yeah, there's an element of that.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
So what about people who have got tomb deposits? Because
it's all very well and good for those of us
with mortgages going help, Yeah, what do they do? Do
they what will they do with their money?
Speaker 3 (08:58):
We'll spend it, hopefully they've got to live on it.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:01):
Yeah, But I mean from what you know, what the
data is telling us, and I know people don't like this.
There's a lot of savings that are actually up in
this country since COVID's there's the wealth that the household
wealth on aggregate went up and it came down a
bit because some of its housing related, but then it
started rising again in the last quarter. And that's people's
(09:22):
because the interest on savings has been very good. People
have saved because they haven't felt confident and and they've
felt nervous about jobs and all the rest. So they've
been saving. They've been investing in their managed funds and
things which are looking good because of weird stuff like
you know, AI stocks and markets liking Donald Trump and
things are making Wall Street hit record highs. So there
(09:46):
is a feeling that there is money on the sidelines.
I don't know, you know, not for everyone, but there
is some there are some savings out there, and there's
some money on the sidelines that will get probably go
back into the housing market when things start to turn
quite quickly, I would imagine. But also you would hope
that you know, people my aging up again to go, well,
(10:06):
you know what's the most valuable commodity time. I think
it's you know, if you if you start to feel
a bit more secure about your job, or about your
long term situation or the value of your house, then
that just encourages people to feel a bit more relaxed
about spending.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
I would be investing in travel companies because not only
do people want to travel after COVID, but you've also
got that huge wealth transfer from.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
I think it was the boom morning, wasn't it.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
It's been around for a wee while where they've talked
about the boomers giving it to the not the millennials.
It's the one under the gen zs I think, I guess, yeah,
but first before it gets to them, goes to the
enjoy it. It goes to the women, the widows, of course,
the merry widows. And so you've got these crusty old
buggers who won't travel. No bloody how it's good enough yet,
(10:57):
And they.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
Wouldn't listen and go to the doctor.
Speaker 2 (10:59):
Wouldn't listen and go to the doctor. So now all
of a sudden, the widows are left with millions, and
they will spend.
Speaker 3 (11:06):
Yeah, there is there is an interesting phenomenon that I've
written about where they're not the boomers aren't spending as
much as people thought they would. They thought, because of
the way they partied earlier, that they'd be partying more now.
And I guess the pressure goes on. You know, you
start to worry about your kids getting a house and
all that sort of stuff, so then you start to
worry about having more money for them and all that
(11:26):
sort of stuff. And it's a bit of a negative spiral,
I guess, because you want if you actually, if we
all spent, then the economy was stronger and maybe we'd.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
Not the women will do it, yeah, but also you know,
all well and good to be spending your money when
you're old, but disgracing yourself in your twenties at eSpeak.
There are locks a whole lot better than disgracing yourself
in your seventies at especure.
Speaker 3 (11:47):
Sure, yeah, I mean there's different different ways to spend
your money, I guess, you know, or good food exactly,
Oh you've got. SPQR was tougher that, you know. I
remember going in the nineties and feeling hopelessly out of
my depths and uncool because it was so it wasn't it.
It's just hard to believe.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
They always made you feel welcome wherever you'mme from one
thing I will say, you know, with SPQR, Smith and
Coey's this list of a list goes on.
Speaker 3 (12:10):
There are many many things that we thought were institutions
that are going. And I don't think it's all just
this economic cycle. I think there's some big social SPQR.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
I was thinking, does every generation think this that everything.
Speaker 3 (12:24):
That was isn't? Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
I mean I wonder if every regeneration has through that.
Speaker 3 (12:29):
I could add things like honey Puffs and Cadbury's chocolate
fem milks. Yeah, toffee milks. I didn't. I hadn't been
buying them to be fair, because you can't eat those
once you get certain age because you break your teeth.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
Oh no, no, no, I had about one a week.
Makes me the woman I am today. Anyway, Glad to
see you're not so gromy This is good. This is
smile on Liam Dan's face, even if it was the
toffee milk not the latest stats in zed figures.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
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