Francesca Rudkin: Is the country warming up to the Prime Minister?

To use a Love Island-ism, it looks like Chris Luxon appears to have been a slow burn on the nation since being sworn in as our Prime Minister in late November – but if the latest 1News-Verian poll is anything to go by, we appear to be warming to the man and his leadership.   

The poll shows numbers for the governing parties remained largely unchanged, National remains steady on 38%, ACT remained steady on 7%, and NZ First remains steady on 6%.  Labour is up 1 on 30%, and Te Pati Māori is up 1 on 4%. The Greens dropped 2 points to 11%.   

But the most interesting thing about this poll was the result for preferred Prime Minister. Christopher Luxon's is up 5 percentage points to 28% in the rankings. Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick and NZ First leader Winston Peters also saw small increases.  

At the beginning of October last year Christopher Luxon was sitting at 26%, but in the last two 1News-Verian polls, he had dropped to 23% in the preferred Prime Minister stakes.  

While the Prime Minister “doesn’t read too” much into polls, I imagine the National Party and Luxon will be quietly happy with the movement in this poll.   

So, what does this say about where we are at? If you are a small or medium-sized business owner, do you feel like the country is at a turning point? Business Confidence in New Zealand increased to 27.10 points in July from 6.10 points in June of 2024. Is this down to the leadership you’re seeing?   

While there was an appetite for change at the last election, the polls have revealed mixed feelings towards the coalition and the preferred Prime Minister stakes.   

I would suggest that many of us are still viewing the economy and the direction of the country with a sense of caution. It feels like the ship has steadied somewhat, and that is what is being reflected in the poll.   

In our household, we’re still very conscious of our spending. Notification of cost increases seem to be arriving in our inboxes monthly, so while tax cuts are appreciated, seeing the OCR final drop is a relief, and hearing the Government address overspending within government departments, it feels like we’re paused rather than moving forward at a great rate.   

It’s worth noting this poll was taken before the OCR was lowered last week, I wonder if you take that into consideration and a few more pay cycles with the tax cut, will they make even more of a difference in the next poll?  

How do you read this poll? Does it reflect how hopeful we are and changing times or is it more about an increase in confidence in the Prime Minister, his leadership and the way he is managing the coalition? 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the carrywood of morning's podcast from News
Talk Seed B.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
To use a love islandism. It looks like Chris Luxon
appears to have been a slow burn on the nation
since been sworn in as our Prime minister in late November,
but if the latest one News Variant poll is anything
to go by, we appear to be warming to the
man and his leadership. The poll shows numbers for the
governing parties remain largely unchanged, so National remains steady on

(00:34):
thirty eight percent, Act remains steady on seven percent, New
Zealand First remains steady on six percent, Labors up one
on thirty percent, and to party Maria is up one
on four percent. The Greens dropped two points to eleven percent.
But the most interesting thing about the poll was the
result for preferred Prime Minister. Christopher Luxen is up five
percentage points to twenty eight percent in the rankings. Green

(00:58):
co leader Chloe s Warlbrick and New Zealand First leader
Winston Peters also saw small increases. At the beginning of
October last year, Christopher Luxen was sitting at twenty six percent,
but in the last two News Variant poles that we've had.
He dropped to twenty three percent and the preferred prime
minister stakes. Now, while the Prime Minister doesn't read too

(01:20):
much into polls, I imagine that the National Party and
Luxon will be quite happy with the movement in this poll.
So what does it say about where we're at? We're
feeling good about the direction of the country. If you're
a small or medium sized business owner, do you feel
like the country is at a turning point? Business confidence

(01:44):
in New Zealand increased twenty seven point ten points in
July from six point ten points in June of twenty
twenty four. Is this down to the leadership you're seeing?
While there was an appetite for change at the last election,
the polls have revealed mixed feelings towards the coalition and
the preferred prime minister stakes. I would suggest that many

(02:05):
of us are still viewing the economy and the direction
of the country with a little bit of a sense
of caution. It feels like the ship is steadied somewhat
and that has been reflected in this pole. I know
in our household we're's still very conscious of spending. Notification
of cost increases seemed to be arriving in our inboxes monthly.

(02:30):
So while tax cuts are appreciated and seeing the OCR
finally drop as a relief, and of course hearing of
the government address over spending within government departments, this is
all good, but it feels like we've just we've paused
for a moment rather than moving forward at a great rate.

(02:51):
And that makes sense, right, You can't turn things around overnight.
It's worth noting that this pole was taken before the
OCR was lowered last week, and I wonder if you
take that into consideration and a few more pay cycles
with the tax cart, that will make even a bigger
difference in the next pole. I'm sure that's what the

(03:13):
Coalition is hoping that they will see. So how do
you read this poll? Does it reflect how hopeful we
are and changing times? Are we a little bit of
a tipping point? Are you feeling like momentum is starting
to build in the direction that you would like to
see this country go? Or is it more about an

(03:34):
increase in confidence in our Prime minister, his leadership and
the way that he is managing the coalition. So, having
a bit of a check in with the nation this morning,
it feels like you get quite mixed signals. You hear
that business confidence is up, but then you talk to
retailers who are struggling, You talk to small and medium

(03:57):
business owners, and you'll hear a variety of different stories.
So we'd like to hear from you this morning and
hear about your sector or just your household and how
you feel we're doing.

Speaker 1 (04:11):
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