April 20, 2026 • 8 mins
Inflation was higher than it should be, even before factoring in the full impact of the war on Iran.
Stats NZ data shows the inflation rate remained unchanged at 3.1% in the March quarter.
Internationally driven tradeable inflation dipped to 2.5% and the domestically driven non-tradeable rate was unchanged at 3.5%.
The Herald's Liam Dann told Kerre Woodham these figures come before fuel rises really kicked off.
He says it's disappointing we aren't heading into that crisis in a better position.
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Kerry Wood and Morning's podcast from
News Talks, he'd be.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
As we were saying in our news. Inflations remained unchanged
in the March quarter. The latest stats in z data
shows the consumer price index increased three point one percent
in the year to March, following a three point one
percent increase in the year to December. Reserve Bank thought
three percent, economists went two point eight to three point
one totally hotally hum. New Zealand Herald Business editor it
(00:32):
largely and Dan joins me, is it a bit ho hum?
Speaker 3 (00:36):
Well, it's a bit disappointing, really. I mean, I know
it's all in the past, right, so yeah, but we
had you know, we'd only only one month of these
figures captured the postil shock. Yeah, and even then, I think,
you know, we had the war start and it took
a while for the petrol prices to flow through, but
you know, petrol was up three point five percent in
(00:57):
that quarter, so that was just starting to turn. And
I guess the disappointing thing is that, you know, you
think about what's coming at us. It would be nice
to be started from a lower position. I mean, you know, whatever,
you whatever, you experienced in the first quarter is what
you experienced. The numbers and telling you telling you anything
you didn't you haven't been through.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
I know, it felt like it didn't feel like things
were getting better. No, despite everybody's saying, oh, look there's
green shoots everywhere, it didn't feel like things were getting
better at all.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
Look, I think there was there was some good signs,
but you have been stomped on. I mean, you know,
let's face it, like what oh you mean, well, just
the amount of momentum in the economy. The business is
doing things and the things that happened first, so you know,
businesses start investing and doing things, and that was coming
through reasonably strongly. So we had a really good performance
(01:50):
of Manufacturing index, which means that people were making you know,
businesses were making more.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Stuff, were they taking on more people.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
Well, that tends to come last in the cycle. We
didn't get that far before the next external show.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
So that's when we'll feel it yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
Yeah, yeah, or as the case, maybe we won't because
it didn't happen. We got slammed again. Cool, And that's
one of the problems, isn't it. If you take two, three,
four years to come out of a downturn, you might
already run into the next big shock.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
And what's the psychological damage of that, Because I've already
heard from people who are wealthy individuals that they are
not going to invest here because and they're certainly not
going to invest here yet because they don't want to
see another Labor GREENSI coalition come in. They're not willing
(02:38):
to put money into the economy until they know what's
what this year.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
Yeah, well, I mean it is a big psychological blow.
We've had so many false starts. We've had three false
starts in fact in a row. And I guess that's
where a lot of the political dissatisfaction comes from. And
that's probably why Labor's back in the polls.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
I mean, because they've done nothing in terms of place.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Dissatisfaction with the current government, which you know, I've been
critical in the past for maybe they're not being bold
enough on some policy moves, and I didn't like the
tax cut and all this sort of stuff, But you know,
they're also up against it, and any government in this
situation would be copying it, I think unless they were.
(03:23):
You know, they've said they're not going to splash the
cash around this time.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
Maybe they needed to well politically.
Speaker 3 (03:31):
Maybe, but it doesn't seem like, you know, like it
does seem like they're doing the right thing, because I
still have some hope. I mean, you know it's going
on right now, but the discussions around the straight Oho moves.
If you if you were to get it open, then okay,
there's several months of oil prices to play through, but
the next few months also have the biggest you know,
(03:52):
five point billion dollar four billion dollars of dairy money
coming to the country and interest rates about as low
as they're going to be. I mean, people will be
fixed at their lowest possible rates, so you'll have have
that stimulus as well until the Reserve Bank decides to
move again. So there are some fair ones there, but
just up against you know, like basically that the frustrating
(04:14):
thing is the inability to keep a lit on prices
of things that we just have to use. So you know,
good news and the technology front and all that sort
of thing. Audio visual equipment keeps coming down, so that's
you see that in the stats. But what do we
really need, Well, we need food, energy, and fuel, and
unfortunately electricity was the big driver of this last quarter
(04:37):
twelve point five percent increase. Again, rates was another issue.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
There is any insurances, Yeah, insurance.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
There's been a little bit of easing around real estate
and property generally, and it's the lowest rental increase at
one point too that we've seen for many years. So
that hopefully means some people are finding it a bit
easier if they're forced to move around different rentaltoral ways.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
I don't know, it's just it's just been such a grind,
hasn't it, especially for young ones starting out who haven't
experienced anything like this before.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
Yeah, it does bring to mind that period from the
late eighties through the early nineties.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
When it was the same sort of thing.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
Yeah, and at good times will well and trulyo And you.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
Know, it's obviously so we've seen a lot of Kiwis
depart for Australia. I would say that is starting to turn,
but not really for any other reason that maybe things
aren't going quite so well in Australia.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
Exactly, some of them are well when people are coming
back having already invested so much to get over there.
Speaker 3 (05:37):
Yeah, I mean it's such a country, but it has
got it actually has three point seven percent inflation already
and interest rates are going up faster there, So I
guess you know they have issues too. This is a
you know, this this few oil shock as a global problem,
isn't it? And so you know all we can do
is watch and wait and hope on that one. Unfortunately,
(05:58):
you know, trust and trust and who I don't.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Know, shrump. Can you believe you know?
Speaker 3 (06:04):
I read today that so the US has successfully blocked
twenty seven ships going through the Strait of Hermus. Now,
I just remember John Clark indoors those sketch. So you've
your moves to open the Strait of Hermus How they're going?
Oh good, We've stopped twenty seven ships going through. Okay,
I don't know logic there, but I don't know what
it is.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
No, I don't know either. So when it comes to
closer to home and with the rumblings of discontent among
the among the backbenches within Nationals, you know, I mean,
all Crossapkint has to do is stage storm, really, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (06:39):
Yeah? I mean, look, I know I'm always pointing forward,
but you know, does National hold on with the current
leadership on the basis that once this crisis is over
it's sort of pent up demand and there might be
a little bit of a bounce back, but they're not
going to see that until probably you know, what's.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
The earth after the election?
Speaker 3 (06:59):
Yeah, or at best you'd be holding your nerve for
September October, and that's that's You've really got to hold
your nerve then, don't you Around leadership and all that
sort of stuff.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
That's why you've got to be really careful when you
are campaigning. As Christoph Luxelm was on the economy, we'll
fix it, you know he's and yes it was going
to be a big job. But you know you've got
to put caveats in there even when you campaigning.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
And I mean, you know it may it's you know,
this oil shock isn't his fault. But unfortunately that's what
happens in politics people, where people are grumpy and are unhappy.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Yep. And it's not going to be any better the
next time I talk to you.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
Probably not, probably not one day it will be.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
Are people still traveling? You know how those figures tend
to show that there is definitely those who are doing
okay and do have disposable Are people still swawning off.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
Or to hit this point.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
But I would suspect next time around my hunches.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
That even if you had money right now, you might
be thinking, oh, it's so there's so much disruption and
chaos in the aviation sector that people will be delaying
and that that could come that could hurt us on
the tourist inbound.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
Could hurt us on the inbound. But maybe those who
are staying home might do what like they did during
COVID and spend on services and products here.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
Yeah, why not hope that'd be upside.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Okay, we found an upside and we should leave it
there because I think if we keep talking, yeah, just
sliding down the slope again. Thank you so much that
as William, who is our business editor at large.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
For more from Kerry Wood and Mornings, listen live to
news Talks. It'd be from nine am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Kerry Wood and Morning's podcast from
News Talks, he'd be.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
As we were saying in our news. Inflations remained unchanged
in the March quarter. The latest stats in z data
shows the consumer price index increased three point one percent
in the year to March, following a three point one
percent increase in the year to December. Reserve Bank thought
three percent, economists went two point eight to three point
one totally hotally hum. New Zealand Herald Business editor it
(00:32):
largely and Dan joins me, is it a bit ho hum?
Speaker 3 (00:36):
Well, it's a bit disappointing, really. I mean, I know
it's all in the past, right, so yeah, but we
had you know, we'd only only one month of these
figures captured the postil shock. Yeah, and even then, I think,
you know, we had the war start and it took
a while for the petrol prices to flow through, but
you know, petrol was up three point five percent in
(00:57):
that quarter, so that was just starting to turn. And
I guess the disappointing thing is that, you know, you
think about what's coming at us. It would be nice
to be started from a lower position. I mean, you know, whatever,
you whatever, you experienced in the first quarter is what
you experienced. The numbers and telling you telling you anything
you didn't you haven't been through.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
I know, it felt like it didn't feel like things
were getting better. No, despite everybody's saying, oh, look there's
green shoots everywhere, it didn't feel like things were getting
better at all.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
Look, I think there was there was some good signs,
but you have been stomped on. I mean, you know,
let's face it, like what oh you mean, well, just
the amount of momentum in the economy. The business is
doing things and the things that happened first, so you know,
businesses start investing and doing things, and that was coming
through reasonably strongly. So we had a really good performance
(01:50):
of Manufacturing index, which means that people were making you know,
businesses were making more.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Stuff, were they taking on more people.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
Well, that tends to come last in the cycle. We
didn't get that far before the next external show.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
So that's when we'll feel it yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
Yeah, yeah, or as the case, maybe we won't because
it didn't happen. We got slammed again. Cool, And that's
one of the problems, isn't it. If you take two, three,
four years to come out of a downturn, you might
already run into the next big shock.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
And what's the psychological damage of that, Because I've already
heard from people who are wealthy individuals that they are
not going to invest here because and they're certainly not
going to invest here yet because they don't want to
see another Labor GREENSI coalition come in. They're not willing
(02:38):
to put money into the economy until they know what's
what this year.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
Yeah, well, I mean it is a big psychological blow.
We've had so many false starts. We've had three false
starts in fact in a row. And I guess that's
where a lot of the political dissatisfaction comes from. And
that's probably why Labor's back in the polls.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
I mean, because they've done nothing in terms of place.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Dissatisfaction with the current government, which you know, I've been
critical in the past for maybe they're not being bold
enough on some policy moves, and I didn't like the
tax cut and all this sort of stuff, But you know,
they're also up against it, and any government in this
situation would be copying it, I think unless they were.
(03:23):
You know, they've said they're not going to splash the
cash around this time.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
Maybe they needed to well politically.
Speaker 3 (03:31):
Maybe, but it doesn't seem like, you know, like it
does seem like they're doing the right thing, because I
still have some hope. I mean, you know it's going
on right now, but the discussions around the straight Oho moves.
If you if you were to get it open, then okay,
there's several months of oil prices to play through, but
the next few months also have the biggest you know,
(03:52):
five point billion dollar four billion dollars of dairy money
coming to the country and interest rates about as low
as they're going to be. I mean, people will be
fixed at their lowest possible rates, so you'll have have
that stimulus as well until the Reserve Bank decides to
move again. So there are some fair ones there, but
just up against you know, like basically that the frustrating
(04:14):
thing is the inability to keep a lit on prices
of things that we just have to use. So you know,
good news and the technology front and all that sort
of thing. Audio visual equipment keeps coming down, so that's
you see that in the stats. But what do we
really need, Well, we need food, energy, and fuel, and
unfortunately electricity was the big driver of this last quarter
(04:37):
twelve point five percent increase. Again, rates was another issue.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
There is any insurances, Yeah, insurance.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
There's been a little bit of easing around real estate
and property generally, and it's the lowest rental increase at
one point too that we've seen for many years. So
that hopefully means some people are finding it a bit
easier if they're forced to move around different rentaltoral ways.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
I don't know, it's just it's just been such a grind,
hasn't it, especially for young ones starting out who haven't
experienced anything like this before.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
Yeah, it does bring to mind that period from the
late eighties through the early nineties.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
When it was the same sort of thing.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
Yeah, and at good times will well and trulyo And you.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
Know, it's obviously so we've seen a lot of Kiwis
depart for Australia. I would say that is starting to turn,
but not really for any other reason that maybe things
aren't going quite so well in Australia.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
Exactly, some of them are well when people are coming
back having already invested so much to get over there.
Speaker 3 (05:37):
Yeah, I mean it's such a country, but it has
got it actually has three point seven percent inflation already
and interest rates are going up faster there, So I
guess you know they have issues too. This is a
you know, this this few oil shock as a global problem,
isn't it? And so you know all we can do
is watch and wait and hope on that one. Unfortunately,
(05:58):
you know, trust and trust and who I don't.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Know, shrump. Can you believe you know?
Speaker 3 (06:04):
I read today that so the US has successfully blocked
twenty seven ships going through the Strait of Hermus. Now,
I just remember John Clark indoors those sketch. So you've
your moves to open the Strait of Hermus How they're going?
Oh good, We've stopped twenty seven ships going through. Okay,
I don't know logic there, but I don't know what
it is.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
No, I don't know either. So when it comes to
closer to home and with the rumblings of discontent among
the among the backbenches within Nationals, you know, I mean,
all Crossapkint has to do is stage storm, really, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (06:39):
Yeah? I mean, look, I know I'm always pointing forward,
but you know, does National hold on with the current
leadership on the basis that once this crisis is over
it's sort of pent up demand and there might be
a little bit of a bounce back, but they're not
going to see that until probably you know, what's.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
The earth after the election?
Speaker 3 (06:59):
Yeah, or at best you'd be holding your nerve for
September October, and that's that's You've really got to hold
your nerve then, don't you Around leadership and all that
sort of stuff.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
That's why you've got to be really careful when you
are campaigning. As Christoph Luxelm was on the economy, we'll
fix it, you know he's and yes it was going
to be a big job. But you know you've got
to put caveats in there even when you campaigning.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
And I mean, you know it may it's you know,
this oil shock isn't his fault. But unfortunately that's what
happens in politics people, where people are grumpy and are unhappy.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Yep. And it's not going to be any better the
next time I talk to you.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
Probably not, probably not one day it will be.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
Are people still traveling? You know how those figures tend
to show that there is definitely those who are doing
okay and do have disposable Are people still swawning off.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
Or to hit this point.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
But I would suspect next time around my hunches.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
That even if you had money right now, you might
be thinking, oh, it's so there's so much disruption and
chaos in the aviation sector that people will be delaying
and that that could come that could hurt us on
the tourist inbound.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
Could hurt us on the inbound. But maybe those who
are staying home might do what like they did during
COVID and spend on services and products here.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
Yeah, why not hope that'd be upside.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Okay, we found an upside and we should leave it
there because I think if we keep talking, yeah, just
sliding down the slope again. Thank you so much that
as William, who is our business editor at large.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
For more from Kerry Wood and Mornings, listen live to
news Talks. It'd be from nine am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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