October 24, 2025 • 11 mins
John breaks down the real polls you should look at regarding President Trump's job performance. So far, Republicans are maintaining seats through the midterms, according to McLauglin’s knowledge.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Yeah, let's get back to the Mark Simone show. I w.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Well. You know, you see these media polls, college polls,
they're all terrible, just these junk polls. You see polling
companies you never heard of. The biggest and best pollster
in the world is John McLaughlin. This is the one
presidents and prime ministers and the biggest campaigns us. John
McLaughlin has a website is McLaughlin online dot com, and
(00:26):
he's with us now, John McLaughlin, how you doing.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
I'm doing well because you say very nice, flattering things.
But I'm fortunate that I've polled for Donald Trump. And
as you and I have discussed before, President Trump proved
that polls rite a long time ago in twenty sixteen
and has done so since. So I guess, yeah, we'll
see about now he's talking to you know, some of
(00:50):
his friends are talking to him about twenty twenty eight.
We'll see, well, but I think I think, yeah, I
don't think that's I don't think that's going to happen.
So that's I get to listen to the nice things
people say about our polls, because last year we said
he was going to sweep the battleground states and when
the popular vote and he proves that true.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Yeah, just explain to people these public polls they're cheap, flimsy.
They're like five hundred people, a thousand people. That's not
always likely voters. I mean, what you do is much
more scientific, elaborate, much much bigger scale. So but we
haven't had a real poll from a real what they
call the internals by any of the campaigns.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Have we not really? And when you're looking at I
mean when you look at national polls, like like they've
gone back to their bias against the president and they're
kind of right. It could be I llegal immigrant. Yes,
they have cell phones. I mean, it's serious. Some of
these polls, like there was a poll out last week Economists.
You go of online, so there's an online poll and
(01:50):
they had when you go into their internals they have
more liberal it's so wrong. They have more liberals and conservatives.
That's the opposite of the exit poles from West November.
And they have more Democrats than Republicans. Again it's the
opposite of the exit Polese. The big killer is this
ecoress Ugo Poland was done like October twentieth. They and
(02:10):
they had that they had like twelve hundred people, but
they're supposedly you know, adults. But they had only thirty
five percent Trump voters. We got fifty percent. So when
they come out with a job approval for President Trump
of forty three percent, it means they short as fifteen
points just they had because nine out of ten uh
(02:34):
Trump voters still approve the job he's doing at least,
if not one hundred percent. So you got so just
they had fifteen to the forty three, that'd be fifty eight.
So the better polls have them like we had in September,
we had forty nine percent job for forty six disapproved.
We had the Republicans winning for Congress forty seven to
(02:54):
forty one. But it was a thousand likely voters. We
know the voters were contacting the voters. We're asking them
how likely they are to vote, because it's a big
difference because in the last national election, you had a
hundred sixty million people vote appartment on a hunred and
fifty six million people voted. Its one hundred and sixty
and twenty twenty. So that's out of a universe of
(03:17):
you know, like two hundred and fifty two hundred and
sixty adults in the United States. And then when you
get to when you get to the midterm elections, the
midterm the elections go down even further. So in twenty eighteen,
one hundred and eighteen million people come out, and in
twenty twenty two it was one hundred and twelve million.
(03:38):
So nationally, when you're saying a thousand likely voters trying
to represent a universe, it's a universe of probably about
one hundred and ten hundred and twenty million voters that
are probably going to come out, and polls really don't
predict turnout. You have to look at other barometers when
you get close to the election.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Well, now let me ask you about the maryl race.
I know you haven't pulled it. Nobody's really pulled, no
real top polling. But he's done this mayoral race. But
what is your sense right now? Is Mom Donnie on
track to win? Has he been losing steam? Is Cuomo gaining?
Speaker 3 (04:08):
By the way, we did poland January for Betsy McCoy. Yeah,
first her Save our City project, and back then we
had only thirty one percent of the Democrat primary voters
preferring Cuomo. And when you have the second choice cause
that ran Chois vote it was only five. So I
told Betsy, he's not going to win. It's just and
(04:29):
it seemed to be right for the primary, but Mondombe
hadn't emerged. And when you look at the like the
Fox News pole that came out, and it was like
October fourteenth was the day that came out. The difficult
part is Mondomnie's the most favorable of the candidates, so
they had Mondomie ahead, but he had a fifty eight
to thirty seven farewell on Fairwell, while Cuomo in that
(04:52):
poll was fifty to forty eight and Curse was thirty
six to fifty three Farewell, fun Farewell. And then there
was the ar the AA r P pole which was
one thousand and forty likely voters that Gotham did and
it was mild after the last male race was kind
of a snoozer with Adams and so you only had
(05:14):
a million people. So you know, when you think about it,
in the city, you could have one point eight million voted.
When I was polling for lee Zelden and we were
in a close race with Hockel, there was one point
eight million people came out in the city, or when
I was polling for President Trump. You had two and
a half million people come out and those races. You know,
Lee and President Trump did as well as a Republican
(05:36):
could do in the city where we got thirty percent.
And so this aar p pole when you're looking at it,
it's probably tilted, it's probably too old, and may not
be democratic enough in it. Yeah, in it, but they
have they had. That's the one that caused the stir
where you had the three where you had a Mondaminia
(05:58):
forty three in Quoma twenty nine and Curtis at nineteen.
So Curtis is running behind where Trump and Zelden were,
but in the two way. That's because it was an
older sample, maybe a little light on the Democrats path.
It was forty five Mandammie, forty one Cuomo, and that's
when they all started. Curtis got to get out now,
Curtis needs to be Curtis and Cuomo needed to be
(06:19):
going after Mandami in a heavy way since all summer.
They should have been, but they've been. You know, these
all these people, like you say, the billionaires who don't
know what they're doing, they've all been playing a musical
chairs saying no this. Once you get out this, once
you get out the problem is when you look at
the internals of that poll, Mondami is a net positive
forty eight to forty five fairbele to unfavable, and Curtis
(06:44):
is thirty five fareuell forty seven unfairal So he's a
net negative and Cuomo's a net negative thirty seven Faarabel
to forty eight unfavorable.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
But now you saw that. Yeah, but you said, way
back months ago, you said, the only way to stop
Mondani You're gonna have to have them bombard the airwaves
with no negative ads, bring out his negatives, drive up
his unfavorables. Where were the donors. They didn't do it,
none of the packs.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
Where were they No, by the way, I don't use
the word negatives, issue adds, issue adds, but where were
they sat they set it out?
Speaker 3 (07:16):
Well, it's cheaper that way, they don't. It didn't cost
them anything. I mean, Clomo wasted a lot of their
money in the primary. And now now you know, but
you have you know, like we ran President Trump's campaign,
it was a contrast between his job as president versus
Biden and Harris the job they had done. And people
(07:36):
respond to issues. Now you're seeing you know, kitchen sink
ads coming out about Mndomie's positions on the issues. About
legalizing prostitution, it'll increase human trafficking. He wants to legalize drugs,
it'll increase drug use on the subways. Him defunding the
you know, closing jails to fund. By the way, the
one who won the last two mayoral debates is Bruce
(07:59):
Blakeman and Nassa. Yeah, because works for Bruce out there.
Bruce has done a great job. He's cut taxes, he's
refused to raise taxes in four years. He's hired hundreds
of new police officers. They're the savist county in America.
And so Mandamie in Nassau County has a twenty five
favorable he has a sixty nine percent.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Now, Blakeman's an easy win, right, there's no chance of
Blakeman racing, we hope.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
Well, he can't take it for granted. It's an eight
point Democrat county. So there's more Democrats in Nassau than
there are Republicans.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
Everybody get out, Yeah, everybody vote for Bruce Blakeman. Well,
just about it. We got like a minute left. What
do you think is going to happen in this selection
turnout wise, well we get a big turnout can make
a difference. You think we'll get.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
It, Well on Saturday, they start tomorrow, they start voting early,
so you'll have actual counts of people by party, by registration,
by burrow. And if it's like the primary room, Mandamie's
his nonprofits, that stores funds, et cetera. If they start
getting people online and voting, that won't be good for
Andrew Cuomo, Curtis Leer. So you know, uh so, if
(09:05):
you if you, if you care about New York City
like we do, you need to make sure that it's
not just you know, the people Mondomie ortization. You can't.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
You got to get out of the vote. Hey, Clomo
had a pretty good debate. Surprised everybody. Does that mean anything?
Is that going to help? Is it too late?
Speaker 3 (09:23):
It definitely helps, And it's not too late until election day.
You got to you know, I mean, if that forty
five forty one is close, you know, granted he's he's
still got to do a lot of issue education and
a short amount of time on Mondomie's on the record
between them and and you know, that's the probably that's
why Curtis still has has a significant amount of the
(09:45):
vote because there's a lot of people that remember Cuomo
was the guy who gave us cashlespail. Casha's bale has
like been really bad for you. So so as far
as the election goes, you know, Clomo's got to he's
got to make up a lot autogram against Bondomie where
the final points could be the toughest points to uh
(10:06):
to recapture. And you've got you know, and you got
other races like you've got more Maron given Alvin Bragg
a race that's been you know, oh shadow by the
mail Horace.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
Everybody votes for Maud Marrin for da get rid of
Alvin Bragg, Maud maren for day. John McLachlin, we're out
of time, but we'll do it again very soon because
we always want to hear from you, John McLoughlin, the
biggest of the best polster in the world. McLachlan online
dot Com is his website. John McLaughlin, thanks for being
with us.
Speaker 3 (10:37):
Thank you, Thank you, Mark.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Take care, Hey, don't forget if you can't listen to
the show live every day tender noon. You can listen
to the podcast, so you can hear this show anytime
you want, Dare Night. Just get the podcast. And by
the way, if you listen on the weekends, there's a
bonus segment. There's an extra show in there, uh for
just for the podcast listeners. So it wherever you get
your podcasts, or you can just go to seven ten
(11:01):
w o R dot com.
Yeah, let's get back to the Mark Simone show. I w.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Well. You know, you see these media polls, college polls,
they're all terrible, just these junk polls. You see polling
companies you never heard of. The biggest and best pollster
in the world is John McLaughlin. This is the one
presidents and prime ministers and the biggest campaigns us. John
McLaughlin has a website is McLaughlin online dot com, and
(00:26):
he's with us now, John McLaughlin, how you doing.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
I'm doing well because you say very nice, flattering things.
But I'm fortunate that I've polled for Donald Trump. And
as you and I have discussed before, President Trump proved
that polls rite a long time ago in twenty sixteen
and has done so since. So I guess, yeah, we'll
see about now he's talking to you know, some of
(00:50):
his friends are talking to him about twenty twenty eight.
We'll see, well, but I think I think, yeah, I
don't think that's I don't think that's going to happen.
So that's I get to listen to the nice things
people say about our polls, because last year we said
he was going to sweep the battleground states and when
the popular vote and he proves that true.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Yeah, just explain to people these public polls they're cheap, flimsy.
They're like five hundred people, a thousand people. That's not
always likely voters. I mean, what you do is much
more scientific, elaborate, much much bigger scale. So but we
haven't had a real poll from a real what they
call the internals by any of the campaigns.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Have we not really? And when you're looking at I
mean when you look at national polls, like like they've
gone back to their bias against the president and they're
kind of right. It could be I llegal immigrant. Yes,
they have cell phones. I mean, it's serious. Some of
these polls, like there was a poll out last week Economists.
You go of online, so there's an online poll and
(01:50):
they had when you go into their internals they have
more liberal it's so wrong. They have more liberals and conservatives.
That's the opposite of the exit poles from West November.
And they have more Democrats than Republicans. Again it's the
opposite of the exit Polese. The big killer is this
ecoress Ugo Poland was done like October twentieth. They and
(02:10):
they had that they had like twelve hundred people, but
they're supposedly you know, adults. But they had only thirty
five percent Trump voters. We got fifty percent. So when
they come out with a job approval for President Trump
of forty three percent, it means they short as fifteen
points just they had because nine out of ten uh
(02:34):
Trump voters still approve the job he's doing at least,
if not one hundred percent. So you got so just
they had fifteen to the forty three, that'd be fifty eight.
So the better polls have them like we had in September,
we had forty nine percent job for forty six disapproved.
We had the Republicans winning for Congress forty seven to
(02:54):
forty one. But it was a thousand likely voters. We
know the voters were contacting the voters. We're asking them
how likely they are to vote, because it's a big
difference because in the last national election, you had a
hundred sixty million people vote appartment on a hunred and
fifty six million people voted. Its one hundred and sixty
and twenty twenty. So that's out of a universe of
(03:17):
you know, like two hundred and fifty two hundred and
sixty adults in the United States. And then when you
get to when you get to the midterm elections, the
midterm the elections go down even further. So in twenty eighteen,
one hundred and eighteen million people come out, and in
twenty twenty two it was one hundred and twelve million.
(03:38):
So nationally, when you're saying a thousand likely voters trying
to represent a universe, it's a universe of probably about
one hundred and ten hundred and twenty million voters that
are probably going to come out, and polls really don't
predict turnout. You have to look at other barometers when
you get close to the election.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Well, now let me ask you about the maryl race.
I know you haven't pulled it. Nobody's really pulled, no
real top polling. But he's done this mayoral race. But
what is your sense right now? Is Mom Donnie on
track to win? Has he been losing steam? Is Cuomo gaining?
Speaker 3 (04:08):
By the way, we did poland January for Betsy McCoy. Yeah,
first her Save our City project, and back then we
had only thirty one percent of the Democrat primary voters
preferring Cuomo. And when you have the second choice cause
that ran Chois vote it was only five. So I
told Betsy, he's not going to win. It's just and
(04:29):
it seemed to be right for the primary, but Mondombe
hadn't emerged. And when you look at the like the
Fox News pole that came out, and it was like
October fourteenth was the day that came out. The difficult
part is Mondomnie's the most favorable of the candidates, so
they had Mondomie ahead, but he had a fifty eight
to thirty seven farewell on Fairwell, while Cuomo in that
(04:52):
poll was fifty to forty eight and Curse was thirty
six to fifty three Farewell, fun Farewell. And then there
was the ar the AA r P pole which was
one thousand and forty likely voters that Gotham did and
it was mild after the last male race was kind
of a snoozer with Adams and so you only had
(05:14):
a million people. So you know, when you think about it,
in the city, you could have one point eight million voted.
When I was polling for lee Zelden and we were
in a close race with Hockel, there was one point
eight million people came out in the city, or when
I was polling for President Trump. You had two and
a half million people come out and those races. You know,
Lee and President Trump did as well as a Republican
(05:36):
could do in the city where we got thirty percent.
And so this aar p pole when you're looking at it,
it's probably tilted, it's probably too old, and may not
be democratic enough in it. Yeah, in it, but they
have they had. That's the one that caused the stir
where you had the three where you had a Mondaminia
(05:58):
forty three in Quoma twenty nine and Curtis at nineteen.
So Curtis is running behind where Trump and Zelden were,
but in the two way. That's because it was an
older sample, maybe a little light on the Democrats path.
It was forty five Mandammie, forty one Cuomo, and that's
when they all started. Curtis got to get out now,
Curtis needs to be Curtis and Cuomo needed to be
(06:19):
going after Mandami in a heavy way since all summer.
They should have been, but they've been. You know, these
all these people, like you say, the billionaires who don't
know what they're doing, they've all been playing a musical
chairs saying no this. Once you get out this, once
you get out the problem is when you look at
the internals of that poll, Mondami is a net positive
forty eight to forty five fairbele to unfavable, and Curtis
(06:44):
is thirty five fareuell forty seven unfairal So he's a
net negative and Cuomo's a net negative thirty seven Faarabel
to forty eight unfavorable.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
But now you saw that. Yeah, but you said, way
back months ago, you said, the only way to stop
Mondani You're gonna have to have them bombard the airwaves
with no negative ads, bring out his negatives, drive up
his unfavorables. Where were the donors. They didn't do it,
none of the packs.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
Where were they No, by the way, I don't use
the word negatives, issue adds, issue adds, but where were
they sat they set it out?
Speaker 3 (07:16):
Well, it's cheaper that way, they don't. It didn't cost
them anything. I mean, Clomo wasted a lot of their
money in the primary. And now now you know, but
you have you know, like we ran President Trump's campaign,
it was a contrast between his job as president versus
Biden and Harris the job they had done. And people
(07:36):
respond to issues. Now you're seeing you know, kitchen sink
ads coming out about Mndomie's positions on the issues. About
legalizing prostitution, it'll increase human trafficking. He wants to legalize drugs,
it'll increase drug use on the subways. Him defunding the
you know, closing jails to fund. By the way, the
one who won the last two mayoral debates is Bruce
(07:59):
Blakeman and Nassa. Yeah, because works for Bruce out there.
Bruce has done a great job. He's cut taxes, he's
refused to raise taxes in four years. He's hired hundreds
of new police officers. They're the savist county in America.
And so Mandamie in Nassau County has a twenty five
favorable he has a sixty nine percent.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Now, Blakeman's an easy win, right, there's no chance of
Blakeman racing, we hope.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
Well, he can't take it for granted. It's an eight
point Democrat county. So there's more Democrats in Nassau than
there are Republicans.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
Everybody get out, Yeah, everybody vote for Bruce Blakeman. Well,
just about it. We got like a minute left. What
do you think is going to happen in this selection
turnout wise, well we get a big turnout can make
a difference. You think we'll get.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
It, Well on Saturday, they start tomorrow, they start voting early,
so you'll have actual counts of people by party, by registration,
by burrow. And if it's like the primary room, Mandamie's
his nonprofits, that stores funds, et cetera. If they start
getting people online and voting, that won't be good for
Andrew Cuomo, Curtis Leer. So you know, uh so, if
(09:05):
you if you, if you care about New York City
like we do, you need to make sure that it's
not just you know, the people Mondomie ortization. You can't.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
You got to get out of the vote. Hey, Clomo
had a pretty good debate. Surprised everybody. Does that mean anything?
Is that going to help? Is it too late?
Speaker 3 (09:23):
It definitely helps, And it's not too late until election day.
You got to you know, I mean, if that forty
five forty one is close, you know, granted he's he's
still got to do a lot of issue education and
a short amount of time on Mondomie's on the record
between them and and you know, that's the probably that's
why Curtis still has has a significant amount of the
(09:45):
vote because there's a lot of people that remember Cuomo
was the guy who gave us cashlespail. Casha's bale has
like been really bad for you. So so as far
as the election goes, you know, Clomo's got to he's
got to make up a lot autogram against Bondomie where
the final points could be the toughest points to uh
(10:06):
to recapture. And you've got you know, and you got
other races like you've got more Maron given Alvin Bragg
a race that's been you know, oh shadow by the
mail Horace.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
Everybody votes for Maud Marrin for da get rid of
Alvin Bragg, Maud maren for day. John McLachlin, we're out
of time, but we'll do it again very soon because
we always want to hear from you, John McLoughlin, the
biggest of the best polster in the world. McLachlan online
dot Com is his website. John McLaughlin, thanks for being
with us.
Speaker 3 (10:37):
Thank you, Thank you, Mark.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Take care, Hey, don't forget if you can't listen to
the show live every day tender noon. You can listen
to the podcast, so you can hear this show anytime
you want, Dare Night. Just get the podcast. And by
the way, if you listen on the weekends, there's a
bonus segment. There's an extra show in there, uh for
just for the podcast listeners. So it wherever you get
your podcasts, or you can just go to seven ten
(11:01):
w o R dot com.
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