Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is a podcast from wor Now the wr Saturday
Morning Show.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Here's Larry MINTI.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to Saturday Morning. On this week's show, we now
know the two candidates who will run for the Democrats
and Republicans to be the next governor of New Jersey.
Doctor BENJ. Warkin, founding director of the Rowan Institute for
Public Policy and Citizenship at Rowan University, about the race
between Republican Jack Chittarelli and Democrat Mikey Cheryl. We talked
(00:32):
to you last time, talked about Mikey Cheryl and Jack Chitarelli.
They were ahead in the polls and it ended up
being that now handicap this race. What will we be
looking at. What are some of the factors that's going
to play into this election, and what are some of
the background noises because I know people love to call
this a bell weather election.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
Okay, there's a lot to unpack in your question. Let
me try and get to it. First of all, yes,
we fully expected Jack Chittarelli to win handily and he did.
What was surprising is how quickly the race was called
for Mikey Sheryl, the congresswoman who's running for He's going
(01:12):
to be the Democrat nominee for governor, and we thought
it would be a little bit closer. We thought the
race would go a little bit further into the night
before it could be called. But before at thirty, she
was declared the winner and the polls only closed a eight.
So that was what was surprising last night. Now moving
(01:33):
on and handicapping this race in November, it's going to
be close. Now. There's probably the best way to think
about it is that there are two competing historical trends.
On one hand, one favors the Democrats, which is that
historically in New Jersey, which has elections the year after
(01:54):
we have presidential elections, when whomever wins the presidency, the
opposite part will win the governorship. So when a Democrat
wins the White House, the next year, a Republican wins
for governor and vice versas. So you had Donald Trump win,
you would think this bodes well for Democrat Mikey Cheryl.
Competing against that is a trend, that historical trend that
(02:17):
favors the Republican, which is that New Jersey almost never
gives a third consecutive term to the same party in
the running for governor, so we've already had. We're coming
out of two four year terms for Democrat Phil Murphy.
For the Democrats to now go and say, hey, we've
(02:38):
got Mikey Cheryl. Give the Democrat the third straight term
in the governor's seat in New Jersey, that's going to
be tough. We haven't seen that happen since nineteen sixty one.
So these are two competing trends, and I think what
we're looking at is going to be a very close race. Now,
you asked about the other forces. Biggest one is the
(03:00):
Donald Trump presidency. How popular is he in October of
this year will determine a lot about who's gonna win
in November of this year.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
Yeah, no, I agree with you completely. But I was
really taken aback by the fact. Now Chiarelli said what
I expected him to say, that if you're gonna vote
for Mikey Cheryl, that's just a continuation of Phil Murphy.
If you like Phil Murphy, you're getting the same thing
from Mikey Cheryl. I'm not saying that's true, but that's
a good strategy for him. I was surprised how little
(03:34):
Mikey Cheryl was talking about Donald Trump. I thought she
was gonna lead with that. I felt that was gonna
be your entire campaign. And it leads me to believe
that they believe Donald Trump is more popular in New
Jersey than maybe he's given credit for and attacking him
may not be the best strategy, at least right now.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
That could change, but at least right.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
Now, it's partially that. You know, the last poll that
we saw, which was from May, had Donald Trump at
a forty seven forty seven approval disapproval rating. That's not great,
but it's not certainly, you know, completely underwater here. So
with every week and the Trump presidency, opinion change. So
(04:18):
there's a lot of time between now and when people
will vote. So that's part of it. You know, are
they concerned that he's a little more popular than most
people think. Maybe the bigger issue is that I think
the Democrats learned a lesson back in twenty twenty four.
They can't just focus on Donald Trump. They have to
focus on the issues like that relate to affordability in
(04:41):
New Jersey. And I think that's what you're going to
hear a lot from Mikey Cheryl and the Democrats as
they run this fall. They're going to be talking about affordability,
they're talking about tax relief, They're going to be talking
about doing the things that in the end, it's the
you know, the kitchen table issues. So Mikey Show is
(05:03):
going to probably be very focused on that. From a
strictly political strategic perspective, your opinion on Donald Trump is
baked in. You don't even have to mention it to
get people. You don't have to mention Donald Trump for
people to be motivated to vote for or again the
Donald Trump candidate.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
On the other hand, I'm sorry, Ben, But on the
other hand, Chittarelly embraced Trump last night, embraced and thanked him.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Led with that.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
I thought that he might shift after the primary for
the general election and distance himself a little bit.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
Not at all.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
No, And I think, look, it's a different Republican Party
than it was even four years ago. You can't get away.
You're not gonna win this primary unless you are there
embracing Donald Trump and Jack Chittarelli, who said some negative
things about Donald Trump backed you know in fifteen twenty sixteen.
(06:02):
Now he is fully he has done his JD events,
he has fully embraced him and welcome him, which is
the key to survival for any Republican. So I think
you believe him. I don't think Chitdarelli is lying. He
will embrace him. It is the nature of it. You're
(06:22):
not gonna be able to run away from the president
at this point.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
No, I agree with you. Thank you so much. BENJ.
Speaker 1 (06:28):
Workin, Founding director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy
and Citizenship at Rowan University in Glassboro, New Jersey.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
Always a pleasure, have a good day. I can't wait
to talk to you again Downe too.
Speaker 3 (06:39):
I look forward to it. Larry, thank you.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
This has been a podcast from wor