Joe Neumaier, former film critic and film editor at the New York Daily News, has been a journalist and critic in New York for over 20 years. His writing on movies and Hollywood has appeared in Entertainment Weekly, the New York Times, the New York Post, the London Observer, the Washington Post, USA Today Weekend, Hamptons magazine and the Financial Times.com, among others. He"s appeared on MSNBC, Channel 2"s Sunday Morning, Fox 5"s Good Day New York, WPIX-11, CNN, VH1, CNBC, A&E Biography and Access Hollywood. When on deadline, he watches an average of 6 to 8 movies a week. His list of favorite films include "The Godfather," "The Apartment," "Citizen Kane," "McCabe & Mrs. Miller," "All That Jazz," "On Her Majesty's Secret Service," "Goodfellas," "Toy Story 3," "North by Northwest" and "Duck Soup".
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is a podcast from WOR Now more of the
WOR Saturday Morning Show and Larry Minty. The Oscars are
tomorrow night. Who's going to win? Who should win? Let's
find out from film journalist and host of The WOR
Movie Minute Joe Neumayer. Why don't we break this up? Actually, Joe,
(00:21):
you tell us who you think is going to win
and who deserves to win, and we'll do the top five.
Is that all right?
Speaker 2 (00:28):
That sounds fine? Yeah, gotta tell you, Learry. The second
option is easier because this is a nutty year. And
we've been saying it for a while now. It wasn't
I have to say it again. As we said, it
wasn't a very good year for movies twenty twenty four.
So a lot of these nominees I just feel like
are kind of sliding into these spots, either by accident
or by the fact that they're like the lesser evil whatever.
(00:49):
So best Picture, I'm going to say that what I
think should win is a complete unknown, the Bob Dylan
biopick starring Timothy Shallomy. I think it was terrific. It
was my favorite film of the year. That's what should win.
Of these ten movies, I'm going to go out on
a limb and say, what's going to win? Is going
to be Conclave the of the Yes, not a Noura,
(01:10):
because I gotta say I watched to Noura again. I
almost feel like it's a split between older and younger
Academy voters. And younger voters might go for a Noura
because it takes like a strip club. There's a lot
of humor in it, it's wacky. Older viewers. I think
older Academy members are not going to I don't think
really really like it that much. So they're the ones
who are going to go for Conclave. And this is
also now to kind of get into the weeds a
(01:32):
little bit. This is like the BASTA Award, which you know,
the British Academy Award is what that is. There's some
crossovers that went for Conclave. The screen Actors deal went
for Conclave. That's the biggest voting block. So I feel
like those two predictors make it a Conclave year. Who
knows if that's what's going to be, but it is.
It's sort of the least of all these these movies
(01:54):
in terms of that. I don't know, but I would say,
put your money on Conclave. It's going to be a
surprise year for that. I think it's in the shock
a lot of time, and you.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Really can put your money on it. We had the
guy on from DraftKings on here and I didn't know
whatever you were allowed to bet on these things, and
so Conclave, I know, Complete Unknown is fifteen to one.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
And yeah, it's not gonna win. It should but it's not. However,
I think Shalamay would be is going to be Best Actor,
and I think that his only competition is Adrian Brody
for The Brutal List, and I feel like the heat
is off that movie a little bit. He's won before.
They've given that award in previous years to sort of
you know, obviously young are up and coming actors or whatever,
(02:34):
whether it's a or actors who kind of really give
a phenomenal performance. Joaquin Phoenix is won, you know, Rammy Mallick,
things like that. Now, Best the Actress is sort of
a weird thing to mean more for the substances where
a lot of the safe money is going Sage wanted.
I think that that makes sense. But it's a horror film.
It's like a body horror film. Kind of feels like
an eighties movie in a lot of ways. I think again,
(02:56):
older viewers aren't going for that. And from what I've heard,
there's a lot of ground sowls, supp we a lot
of affections for this performance by Fernanda Taurus is Brazilian
actress for this movie called I'm Still Here. That's gonna
be the surprise win and and this is this is
the kind of year. I'm just going off on some
of the some of the wacky, I don't. I think
it's gonna be a year where a lot of the
things that people think are gonna happen are not gonna happen.
(03:16):
So I think Fernanda Taurus is going to be to
me more though there's sort of the I don't think
to me Moore has got the body of work that
everyone sort of thinks she does. Yeah, she's find in
a few good men, but you know whatever. And then
for director, I think that it's going to be a
director and picture split. I think that Sean Baker is
going to get it. For Anura, I think that that's
the that's where a Nora's Award is going to go to,
and probably Best Original Screenplay. Also although I don't think
(03:38):
it deserves it. So I think Sean Baker is going
to get Best Director for a Noura, but the picture
is going to go to Conclave and.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
The best supporting Actor. Is that a foregone conclusion?
Speaker 2 (03:48):
It is? Yeah, And I think Culkin is terrific and
real pain. I think he really deserves it in there,
So I think that that's gonna be a you know,
that's a foregone conclusion, as you say, exactly the actress
in the supporting role. I think that also is kind
of up in the air, though I think that's always
held down. I was going to get it through Amelia Perez.
I don't think she deserves it for that. I think
that the other thing, though, I would say, keep your
eye on Isabella Rossalini for Conclave because even though she's
(04:10):
only in it for seven or eight minutes, so was
Judy den shod Shakespeare in Love. I think that there's
a real chance that she's never been nominated before. She's
in her seventies. Her mother, Ingrid Bergman, won three times,
close to her same age. When she won her third
one for Best Supporting Actress for Murder on the orin Express.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
I'm following you on all of this. I'm actually gonna
bet on all of this, not a lot, but like
twenty hours or something like that. I'm gonna bet on
all these and then you're gonna be back Monday, and
either I'm gonna let you have it on Monday for
leading me astray, or I'm gonna praise you for making
me money.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
I hope are both of our sakes, Larry, that you
can end up. Okay, what do you think of the host?
Speaker 1 (04:49):
I mean, he's got a tough job this year, you know,
Conan O'Brien's got a really tough job because not only
do you have the fires, which other award shows have
handled very well, by the way, but he also has
the Gene Ackman story. Yeah, how are they going to
handle Gene Hackman? Is that they can't just put it
in Memoriam, can they?
Speaker 2 (05:07):
I almost, I mean said they're gonna have to. I
would almost do a special section of it, not right
off the bat. I think that there's a possibility that maybe,
like a half hour in, they sort of do a
very special thing. I think maybe the ongoing investigation might
be the weird thing about that though, So they may
not want it. I don't know, I think they could
probably give him a nice, good, long, extended in memoriam
section for that. Yeah, and it's also I will also say,
(05:28):
this is not a year where a lot of these
movies are kind of up for making. You know, how
do you make fun of movies that not a lot
of people have seen and the scandals and things like that.
It's like a million Perez or whatever.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
That joke in the world that nobody gets because they
haven't seen the movie exactly. So that's the problem that
Codin O'Brien has. And you know, I think Codin O'Brien's brilliant.
I know he's a tremendous writer, and I think he's
very funny. I just think it's an odd pick for this.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
I think it's also interest that oftentimes there's years like
this where they go for a host that they've never
had before and you never see them again. Like John Stewart.
You know, they say, look, this is a really odd year.
Twenty guys turn it down, and then sort of it
comes to Conan and he says yes, and then Lord
David Letterman's another option. They never you never see them
again because they chose them on years that were everybody
else said, no, no, this is too weird. I'm not going
(06:20):
to do this year. Thanks a lot, come back to
me in the year or two. And so I think
that Conan was sort of drew the short straw, which
is funny because he's like six fifth six so tall
guy hits the short straw and you may never see
him again. And I think he'll probably make a joke
about that too. He's like, I get the year for
the Substance and Amelia Perez, thanks guys.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
Yeah, these ten nominees, by the way, for Best Picture,
are they ever going to get rid of that? It
was better when they just had flaw.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
I wish they would. You know, this is something that
goes back to Oscar history too, Like prior to like
nineteen forty four, they had all this. You know, there
was like ten eleven movies. Nineteen thirty nine were not bad,
but it was nineteen thirty nine. It was the greatest
year in Hollywood. You could have ten great movies. They
started this again, if people don't know, in two thousand
and nine, after the year where The Dark Knight and
Wally specifically The Dark Tank We're not nominated, and they said, oh,
(07:07):
you know, here. You know, you're nominating these other movies.
What about these great these great blockbusters. So they brought
it back in two thousand and nine for these ten movies.
But instead, you know, you're getting these things. You know,
you're getting the movies that that either people don't see
or that don't deserve it, and then some things are
getting left out. Still at ten, at ten nominees, I
don't think they're going to get rid of it. They
should though, yeah I agree, Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 1 (07:27):
This is this is this is a bad year, and
it's because it is exposed as a bad year because
of the ten nominees. Wo R Movie Minute host Joe Neumaier.
This has been a podcast from wo R
This is a podcast from WOR Now more of the
WOR Saturday Morning Show and Larry Minty. The Oscars are
tomorrow night. Who's going to win? Who should win? Let's
find out from film journalist and host of The WOR
Movie Minute Joe Neumayer. Why don't we break this up? Actually, Joe,
(00:21):
you tell us who you think is going to win
and who deserves to win, and we'll do the top five.
Is that all right?
Speaker 2 (00:28):
That sounds fine? Yeah, gotta tell you, Learry. The second
option is easier because this is a nutty year. And
we've been saying it for a while now. It wasn't
I have to say it again. As we said, it
wasn't a very good year for movies twenty twenty four.
So a lot of these nominees I just feel like
are kind of sliding into these spots, either by accident
or by the fact that they're like the lesser evil whatever.
(00:49):
So best Picture, I'm going to say that what I
think should win is a complete unknown, the Bob Dylan
biopick starring Timothy Shallomy. I think it was terrific. It
was my favorite film of the year. That's what should win.
Of these ten movies, I'm going to go out on
a limb and say, what's going to win? Is going
to be Conclave the of the Yes, not a Noura,
(01:10):
because I gotta say I watched to Noura again. I
almost feel like it's a split between older and younger
Academy voters. And younger voters might go for a Noura
because it takes like a strip club. There's a lot
of humor in it, it's wacky. Older viewers. I think
older Academy members are not going to I don't think
really really like it that much. So they're the ones
who are going to go for Conclave. And this is
also now to kind of get into the weeds a
(01:32):
little bit. This is like the BASTA Award, which you know,
the British Academy Award is what that is. There's some
crossovers that went for Conclave. The screen Actors deal went
for Conclave. That's the biggest voting block. So I feel
like those two predictors make it a Conclave year. Who
knows if that's what's going to be, but it is.
It's sort of the least of all these these movies
(01:54):
in terms of that. I don't know, but I would say,
put your money on Conclave. It's going to be a
surprise year for that. I think it's in the shock
a lot of time, and you.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Really can put your money on it. We had the
guy on from DraftKings on here and I didn't know
whatever you were allowed to bet on these things, and
so Conclave, I know, Complete Unknown is fifteen to one.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
And yeah, it's not gonna win. It should but it's not. However,
I think Shalamay would be is going to be Best Actor,
and I think that his only competition is Adrian Brody
for The Brutal List, and I feel like the heat
is off that movie a little bit. He's won before.
They've given that award in previous years to sort of
you know, obviously young are up and coming actors or whatever,
(02:34):
whether it's a or actors who kind of really give
a phenomenal performance. Joaquin Phoenix is won, you know, Rammy Mallick,
things like that. Now, Best the Actress is sort of
a weird thing to mean more for the substances where
a lot of the safe money is going Sage wanted.
I think that that makes sense. But it's a horror film.
It's like a body horror film. Kind of feels like
an eighties movie in a lot of ways. I think again,
(02:56):
older viewers aren't going for that. And from what I've heard,
there's a lot of ground sowls, supp we a lot
of affections for this performance by Fernanda Taurus is Brazilian
actress for this movie called I'm Still Here. That's gonna
be the surprise win and and this is this is
the kind of year. I'm just going off on some
of the some of the wacky, I don't. I think
it's gonna be a year where a lot of the
things that people think are gonna happen are not gonna happen.
(03:16):
So I think Fernanda Taurus is going to be to
me more though there's sort of the I don't think
to me Moore has got the body of work that
everyone sort of thinks she does. Yeah, she's find in
a few good men, but you know whatever. And then
for director, I think that it's going to be a
director and picture split. I think that Sean Baker is
going to get it. For Anura, I think that that's
the that's where a Nora's Award is going to go to,
and probably Best Original Screenplay. Also although I don't think
(03:38):
it deserves it. So I think Sean Baker is going
to get Best Director for a Noura, but the picture
is going to go to Conclave and.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
The best supporting Actor. Is that a foregone conclusion?
Speaker 2 (03:48):
It is? Yeah, And I think Culkin is terrific and
real pain. I think he really deserves it in there,
So I think that that's gonna be a you know,
that's a foregone conclusion, as you say, exactly the actress
in the supporting role. I think that also is kind
of up in the air, though I think that's always
held down. I was going to get it through Amelia Perez.
I don't think she deserves it for that. I think
that the other thing, though, I would say, keep your
eye on Isabella Rossalini for Conclave because even though she's
(04:10):
only in it for seven or eight minutes, so was
Judy den shod Shakespeare in Love. I think that there's
a real chance that she's never been nominated before. She's
in her seventies. Her mother, Ingrid Bergman, won three times,
close to her same age. When she won her third
one for Best Supporting Actress for Murder on the orin Express.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
I'm following you on all of this. I'm actually gonna
bet on all of this, not a lot, but like
twenty hours or something like that. I'm gonna bet on
all these and then you're gonna be back Monday, and
either I'm gonna let you have it on Monday for
leading me astray, or I'm gonna praise you for making
me money.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
I hope are both of our sakes, Larry, that you
can end up. Okay, what do you think of the host?
Speaker 1 (04:49):
I mean, he's got a tough job this year, you know,
Conan O'Brien's got a really tough job because not only
do you have the fires, which other award shows have
handled very well, by the way, but he also has
the Gene Ackman story. Yeah, how are they going to
handle Gene Hackman? Is that they can't just put it
in Memoriam, can they?
Speaker 2 (05:07):
I almost, I mean said they're gonna have to. I
would almost do a special section of it, not right
off the bat. I think that there's a possibility that maybe,
like a half hour in, they sort of do a
very special thing. I think maybe the ongoing investigation might
be the weird thing about that though, So they may
not want it. I don't know, I think they could
probably give him a nice, good, long, extended in memoriam
section for that. Yeah, and it's also I will also say,
(05:28):
this is not a year where a lot of these
movies are kind of up for making. You know, how
do you make fun of movies that not a lot
of people have seen and the scandals and things like that.
It's like a million Perez or whatever.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
That joke in the world that nobody gets because they
haven't seen the movie exactly. So that's the problem that
Codin O'Brien has. And you know, I think Codin O'Brien's brilliant.
I know he's a tremendous writer, and I think he's
very funny. I just think it's an odd pick for this.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
I think it's also interest that oftentimes there's years like
this where they go for a host that they've never
had before and you never see them again. Like John Stewart.
You know, they say, look, this is a really odd year.
Twenty guys turn it down, and then sort of it
comes to Conan and he says yes, and then Lord
David Letterman's another option. They never you never see them
again because they chose them on years that were everybody
else said, no, no, this is too weird. I'm not going
(06:20):
to do this year. Thanks a lot, come back to
me in the year or two. And so I think
that Conan was sort of drew the short straw, which
is funny because he's like six fifth six so tall
guy hits the short straw and you may never see
him again. And I think he'll probably make a joke
about that too. He's like, I get the year for
the Substance and Amelia Perez, thanks guys.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
Yeah, these ten nominees, by the way, for Best Picture,
are they ever going to get rid of that? It
was better when they just had flaw.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
I wish they would. You know, this is something that
goes back to Oscar history too, Like prior to like
nineteen forty four, they had all this. You know, there
was like ten eleven movies. Nineteen thirty nine were not bad,
but it was nineteen thirty nine. It was the greatest
year in Hollywood. You could have ten great movies. They
started this again, if people don't know, in two thousand
and nine, after the year where The Dark Knight and
Wally specifically The Dark Tank We're not nominated, and they said, oh,
(07:07):
you know, here. You know, you're nominating these other movies.
What about these great these great blockbusters. So they brought
it back in two thousand and nine for these ten movies.
But instead, you know, you're getting these things. You know,
you're getting the movies that that either people don't see
or that don't deserve it, and then some things are
getting left out. Still at ten, at ten nominees, I
don't think they're going to get rid of it. They
should though, yeah I agree, Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 1 (07:27):
This is this is this is a bad year, and
it's because it is exposed as a bad year because
of the ten nominees. Wo R Movie Minute host Joe Neumaier.
This has been a podcast from wo R
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