04-10-24 Ryan Michael with Broncos Country Tonight

Episode Transcript

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It is time though, to goout to the KA commis pay of the

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hot line, to bring on ourfavorite guy and go inside the numbers.
No, inside the number is withRyan Michael. Always love having Ryan on
the show. Ryan the contributor columnistat the Pro Football Hall of Fame and
the unofficial official utofficial statistician here atBroncos Country. Tonight, Ryan, how
you doing tonight? Well, then, Nick, how are you guys?

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Yeah? Doing pretty well. Theseguys are both wearing glasses now, and
I didn't get the memo, soI feel a lot less intelligent. But
after we get a chance to talkto you, I will be completely caught
up on all things intellectual. Iwill walk around quoting statistics with my pinky
raised as I as I take drinksout of a mug. I will do
my best, but I myself amnot wearing glasses, so I might fall
short tonight. Well. You knowwhat, I don't even know if we

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could trust this data anymore. I'mjust saying, if you put out some
good stuff out there on Twitter.I saw even Will Lut's got a chance
to repost some of it. We'relooking for some positive statistics. You know,
we've been talking a lot of alot of negative things to said the
other what's the positives to testing willthat's highest field goal percentage in Broncos history
at eight eight point two percent,surpassing Jason Elamino three at oh seven and

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one? What else do you havefor us? Not a bad year?
So yeah, and that's really beenthe idea, right. I always find
that the period between the beginning offree agency and the start of the draft,
it's I get a little impatient,like, what is there really to
talk about? Because if I haveto read another mock draft, if I'm
going to pull the hair out ofmy head. I don't think you need.
I don't think you need any morethan one mock draft. Yes,

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So what I did was I dida dig inside the numbers to really give
a little bit of spotlight and loveto guys who are already in the building,
already in our rosters. So inno particular order, some of this
is trivia, some of this isreally efficiency on the field. But wanted
to acknowledge our guys for what they'vebeen able to do. So I'll start
with Portland Sutton and right now he'ssitting at four thy two hundred and fifty

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nine receiving yards as a Bronco.That means he's oney one hundred three yards
away from moving from certain place intosurpassing Emmanuel Sanders in tenth place. Top
ten all time in receiving, especiallyfor a franchise as historic as the Broncos,
is no small feat. So I'llbe rooting for him to get as
many yards as humanly possible. Froman efficiency standpoint, Quarterbacks mostly Rust last

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year produced a one hundred and twentypoint two passer rating when targeting sudden.
So that included two perfect passer ratinggames, right, because one hundred and
fifty eight point three is the highestthe formula will permit. So there was
a one to fifty eight point threegame in October against Green Bay, another
one fifty eight point three in Novemberagainst Minnesota, and a one to fifty

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six point two in December against LASo with that being said, obviously we
look at call the sudden and he'sa wide receiver, but he can't throw
the balls himself. We don't knowwhat the Bronco is going to do at
the quarterback position, but the ideais that they're going to bring someone in.
But the guy who is QB oneat the moment is Jared Stidham.
As things are currently constructed, Whatdid we as Broncos fans expect for from

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Jarred Stidham if he does emerge thestarting quarterback this season? What kind of
stats can we are we looking at? Well? I think the first question
we have to ask ourselves is howare we going to replace Russell Wilson?
And I understand that the perception ofhow well he played last year there's a
bit of a spectrum to that wherethere are some people I would consider myself
on this end of the spectrum.I was impressed with what he was able

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to do given the situation, andthere are the people who felt that he
fell short, didn't live up tohis contract. What I can tell you
is this, he threw twenty sixtouchdown passes in fifteen games and his five
point eight percent touchdown percentage was numberone in the AFC Patrick Mahomes through twenty
seven and sixteen games, he hada four point five percent touchdown pass percentage
that was good for fifteenth in theNFL. So you're looking at a guy

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who produced Mahomes level touchdown passes,a guy who led the NFL in fourth
quarter comebacks, a guy who finishedeighth and passer ratings. So ask yourself,
who is going to be putting upPatrick Mahomes level touchdown passes, leaving
the league in fourth quarter comebacks andfinishing top ten inefficiency as a passer.
Whether it's Jared Stidham, whether it'sanybody we draft, those are going to
be some pretty big shoes to fill. So looking at Jared, we have

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a one hundred and ninety seven attemptsample size, not a very big sample
size, it's also not nothing.So what we've seen so far in his
career a fifty nine point four percentcompletion percentage that's low, a four point
one percent touchdown pass percentage unremarkable,an equal four point one percent interception percentage
that's pretty bad, and a sevenpoint two yard per attempt average that's around

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league average. So if we're goingto channel the optimism that you bring to
the table, nick On, whatI did was I adjusted his numbers and
say he moves his completion percentage upto sixty three and a half percent,
Say his touchdown pass percentage moves upto four point three. Say he cuts
down on the pick significantly two pointfive percent interception percentage maintains that seven point

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two yards per attempt average. Whatyou'd be looking at is about thirty six
hundred yards through the year, twentytwo touchdowns, thirteen picks, and eighty
eight point eight passer rating, whichwould have been good for twenty first in
the league last year. Essentially,you'd be looking at Derek Carr from twenty
twenty two right he had thirty fivetwenty two in terms of yards, twenty
four touchdowns, fourteen picks, andan eighty six point three passer rating.

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I think that's about the ceiling ofa leak what we can expect from Jared
Sstadam Misson starts all seventeen games.But is it I mean, is there
something to be said for continuity?You're having continuity on both sides of the
football, isn't Isn't there as anexpected I don't know, production boost from
both sides the ball, and thatcould theoretically lead to more wins even if

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those aren't eye popping numbers. Ithink it could be, and I think
that we're going to see that hopefullyas far as the team as a whole,
because we're going to be entering inyear two of the Sean Payton regime.
So I expect on offense, we'regoing to see a little bit more
of a Sean Payton system. Right, So we're talking short to intermediate pass
game, timing, rhythm, quickrelief, sack avoidance, which is truly

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a skill. It's something that DrewBrees was incredibly proficient at. It's not
something that Jared Sidham has done wellin his brief limited time. I'm a
little bit more excited to see whatVance Joseph is able to do on the
defensive side of the ball with thatcontinuity, because I look at coach Joseph
as a guy who high football IQ. He's a player's coach. He's a

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guy who I think has had themisfortune in his career, whether as a
DC or a positional coach, He'sbeen paired with some pretty tough rosters,
but when he's had support around him, when he's had good players to work
with, the twenty eleven Houston Texansfinished fourth in points surrendered, the twenty
twelve Texans finished ninety. When hewas coaching the DB's in Cincinnati in twenty
fifteen, they finished second in theleague in scoring. So I think with

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Vance Joseph getting the opportunity to implementhis system and kind of build upon that
continuity. I think that we're goingto see a significant jump on the defensive
side of the ball. Last year, the Denver Broncos d didn't do too
well against the run. And obviouslywe can go back to the game against
Miami and say, well, thosethose particular numbers from that game skewed everything

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after. But the Broncos historically havehad issues slowing down the raiders. Now
they made somewhat of a roster adjustmentthe season, bringing over Foreman, saying
to Malcolm Roach, how does hispresence on the D line changes how the
Broncos play against the run this season? For me personally, the signing of
Malcolm is my favorite free agent signingmove to Denver may during the offseason.

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And per Pro Football Focus, we'retalking about a guy who finished last year
ranked number one in the NFL amongstinterior defensive linemen and runs operate at seventeen
point four percent. And if youlook at the Saints defense as a whole
last year, one of the thingsthat they were good was slowing down the
run. They finished tie for fourthin the league and rushing touchdowns allowed.

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They only gave up ten and eighthin the league in rushing exp which is
an efficiency metric per Pro Football Reference. So I look to Denver. We
finished deadlinet giving up five yards percarry on the ground, so we were
thirty second, but thirty second bya considerable margin. I think plugging Malcolm
into the d line is going todo tremendous benefits to the Broncos run defense

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this year. Yeah, and theyneed that. I mean a lot of
that rushing was from the disaster againstMiami last year, but still even even
factoring out that game, the numberswere still not good at all across the
board. You know, one ofthe things that I think we haven't really
talked about is the impact that JoshReynolds is going to have on this offense.
You know, with what he bringsto the table, the experience in

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a successful offense up there in Detroitand what he was able to do,
how big an impact do you thinkhe can have in his first year in
Denver. He's a fantastic signing forthe Broncos. I mean, we're talking
about a guy who last year partof an explosive offense, finished second on
the Lions. In terms of receptions, he had forty receiving yards six to
eight when he led Detroit with fifteenpoint two yards per reception. So if

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you look at the league in totality, factoring in the postseason, he actually
finished with fifteen point four yards perceptionfor eleventh in the NFL and months wide
receivers. So when you consider howcompetitive that position is, he's definitely a
deep game passing threat that's going toopen up and expand things for whoever the
Broncos plug into the QB one spot. Now I have a thing as crossed

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for brock Bauers, but I knowstatistically speaking, tight ends don't really go
that high as twelve in the draft. But if the Broncos don't go in
that direction and they don't pick upa tight end, what wi guy on
the roster currently on the roster rightnow could step up and we can see

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maybe not just his impact but hisoverall receptions change for the team. I
think that Adam Trautman has the potentialto return to the form that he had
between twenty twenty to twenty twenty two. So during that particular window, his
CAT percentage was seventy four point onepercent. That was six in the NFL
amongst tight ends. It gets considerablyin Denver last year, down to sixty

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two point ninety percent. But Ithink as Sean Payton has the opportunity to
implement his system with his guy,be it Jared Still and be at Bonix,
be anybody else from the draft.If we're not able to pick up
rock Powers and then I know,the odds of him being there at twelve,
even if we would take him attwelve, is no certain thing.
I do think that Adam Drubman hasthe potential to return, perform and make

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them plays on the offense. Yeah, I'm not sure Brock will be there,
but that would be that would bean interesting weapon when you look at
this somebody, It is interesting becausethe other day I was I was talking
with somebody online and they were talkingabout the need for you know, for
receivers. I'm like, actually,that that room is pretty stocked. Now,
there's a difference between stacked and stocked. That that that vow that one

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vowel makes all the difference in theworld. But it doesn't feel like that
that pass catchers, at least notat the receiver position. Or said,
but the tight end position. Itdoes feel like that they could definitely use
some body there, whether that's aBowers or maybe you know the can out
of Kansas State Bens or not thathelped make this offense go. Yeah,
it's going to be interesting to seewhat they do. I don't think that

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we're going to get Bowers at twelvemore do I think that we would take
them at twelve if he fell thatfar. But it really your guess is
as good as anybody else's. Ithink that if we if we're really focusing
on the guys that we have onthe roster right now, it's worth giving
Adam troupni show because he played somegood football at that position for a good
three year stretch, so I'd liketo see him get back to it.

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I think the biggest question, orthe second biggest question, outside of who's
going to be starting on the center, not just in twenty twenty four but
just long term, is what canfans expect from with Sean Payton's offense in
the second year. The reason Iasked that question because Russ was in his
first year of his understanding of thisoffense, and you just right it off

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his stats. But Stidham is comingback and he would be in his second
year. So what can we expectfrom Sean Payton's over offense in year two.
I think that it's going to dependa lot upon how dominant the defense
is, because if you have adefense that's shutting offenses down the way we
did in twenty sixteen, right,there was a reason why we could afford

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to have Trevor Simions start as manygames as he didn't still end the season
with a winning record. So ifwe're having greater success on defense, I
think we can take a little bitmore chances on offense. If the defense
struggles similar to what we went throughlast year, I think we're going to
see a little bit more of aconservative passing game out of Sean Payton.
He's a guy who likes to havefull control over the offense that he runs,

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and there's a reason why he letRussell Wilson go despite some of the
impressive numbers I shared at the beginningof the segment. Yeah, I'm looking
forward to this coming season. Ifeel like that this is going to be,
you know what, Sean Payton hisvision. I guess it's going to
be his vision, and I meanI'm interested to see, you know,
what that looks like, because allthe all the coordinators that ran that offense

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are here in Denver now, youknow, I mean Labarti got fired with
the Chargers, that with Kellen morNow they get a hold of staff over
there. Pete Carmichael obviously let goin New Orleans so that they can run
the Shanahan offense. So it's interestingto see that this brain trust come back
together and what it is that they'regoing to be able to put together.
Do we expect to see something differentthan what we saw over the course of

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those years in New Orleans? Youknow, I don't think that it's reasonable
to assume that we're going to seesuccess on the offensive side of the ball
comparable to what we had in NewOrleans because you had a first ballot future
Hall of Famer and Drew Greens.You also had some talented players, especially
towards the end of Drew's run rightin the form of Michael Thomas and Alvin

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Kamaras. So right now, we'redoing the best we can with the roster
that we have, and I'm impressedwith what some of our guys have been
able to do during various splits,But it's not reasonable to assume, whether
we're talking Jarrets did him in yeartwo or drafting anybody. Even if somehow
we trade it up and took aJJ McCarthy, you're going to be looking
at a completely different style of ross. And so if we are a poor

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man's version of what Drew Brees wasable to produce a New Orleans, I
would consider us very fortunate, ButI wouldn't set the bar that high.
We really have to take it oneyear at a time, Right, what's
a realistic scoring percentage for the Broncosthis season? With everything being as it
is now and just kind of theoptimism and the hope that maybe year two

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would be much better. What arewe looking at as far as an average
total per game offensively for this Broncosteam. That's really a tough thing to
say because last year we finished theleague nineteenth in scoring, despite the fact
that Russell Wilson led the AFC intouchdown pass percent So if we're able to
get a little bit more production onthe ground, obviously that's going to bring

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balance to the offense and open thingsup for the passing game. But I
would say that our goal should beto finish somewhere around league average. We'd
love to lead the league and scoring. We'd love to be the twenty thirteen
Broncos again. But I think thatif we can get somewhere close to league
average or spark the right towards thegate of being a top ten offense,
that would be the optimistic side ofwhat we could hope to expect in twenty

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twenty four. Well, Ran,we we always appreciate it. Look forward
to just seeing what you cook outfor us next time. All right,
sounds good. Appreciate you guys havingdone absolutely, take care. Ryan Michael
at the Ryan Michael on Twitter,columnist and contributor for the Pro Football Hall
of Fame. And you know,we always always get an excited and surprised
to see what it is that heyou know that he brings here to the show.