06-26-24 Hour 2 of Broncos Country Tonight with Ryan Michael

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Welcome to it, Broncos Country Tonight, Benjamin Albright, Gret smith Man,
the Myth, the Mustache, Seeyou, buffs. Cody Williams was just
drafted tenth overall the NBA draft ofthe Utah Jazz. So congratulations to Cody
and he'll be able to continue hiscareer. I guess a little regionally here
over there at the with the Jazz. Yeah, And I think his game

(00:21):
is so much better suited for theNBA than it was for college basketball.
I expect big things out of him. Man, he is the first CU
freshman ever to be drafted into theNBA. Wow. There, that's pretty
interesting. Fascinating stuff. Were rightafter the KWA common Spirital hotline and bring
on our good buddy, Ryan Michaelat the Ryan Michael on Twitter, Ryan,

(00:42):
how you do this evening? Doingwell? Ben? How you guys?
I'm doing pretty well, watching alittle bit of this NBA draft,
looking forward to get some some footballtalk, a little bit of data stuff.
I kind of prepped the audience alittle bit, but could you explain
to us all what AV is?Sure can so AV stands for approximate value

(01:03):
and it's a metric that was createdby Pro Football Reference founder Doug Drinnan.
Essentially what it is, it's asingle number season value for any player at
any position, and because the positionsare weighted equally, it doesn't provide an
advantage for quarterbacks, who will usuallydeliver the most value. It's essentially a
metric to streamline value across all ofthe positions. So what I did is

(01:26):
I bumped it to the top ofmy Twitter page. For fans who want
to go directly to Pro Football Referenceswebsite, they'll be able to break it
down their algorithm far better than Icould try to paraphrase here live on the
air. How much does AV matteror is it something that is predictive,
Is it something that is reactive?What place does it have in the pantheon

(01:48):
of metrics, and how predictive isit? If at all? I would
say that the value of approximate value, no pun intended, is essentially to
assess how well players at all ofthe areas positions have performed on the football
field over the totality of a singleseason. Something to bear in mind is
there is a volume component. Soif you're a player that plays all seventeen

(02:09):
games, you play at a highlevel you're going to finish the season with
a higher av than somebody who playshalf the season. So it's a good
metric in terms of assessing how playersare performing adjusted for position. Does it
carry across eras do we have toadjust for era? Is it a number
that is cumulative or is it moresingle season specific like for instance DVOA.

(02:34):
It's already adjusted for era. Sothe cool thing about it is you can
use it to look back at playersfrom the past. Doesn't matter if they
were playing in the seventies, eighties, nineties, or today. It's not
going to provide an advantage where say, a quarterback along the lines of Jared
Goff is going to be able toproduce a lot of volume production in today's
passing game. Who's not going tonecessarily have an advantage over a quarterback like

(02:57):
Fran Target and who play it inthe nineteen seventies. So because it is
adjusted for ERA, it gives usa good measure in terms of comparing players
from previous generations. So with thatin mind, who has had the best
season in the NFL Ever? Inthe NFL Ever? Off the top of
my head, I have to doublecheck, but I'm fairly certain it was
the deanian Tomlinson in two thousand andsix. I think he scored at twenty

(03:19):
six, something really really up there. That's an incredible number. Mark Jackson
in twenty nineteen was also also veryhigh for the Broncos. Then who would
be the best all time Broncos seasonsand maybe the best all time Broncos career
leaders. So for career leaders,it's not going to be a surprise to

(03:40):
anybody. John John Elway is sittingright there at the top with two hundred
and six. Second place is TomNalan at one p thirty three. Third
places Rod Smith at one twenty nine. Fourth place is von Miller at one
twenty. So part of that interms of career value is a function of
the fact that John played out ahigh level but also played in Denver for

(04:01):
a very long time. One ofthe cool things about approximate value, as
I said, because it does adjustfor era, you would assume that Peyton
Manning would lead the single seasons interms of quarterback performing to AV and to
no surprise, his twenty thirteen seasoncomes in at number one with an AV
of nineteen. But John Elway holdsboth the second and third places he's in

(04:23):
second place nineteen ninety seven with aneighteen. He's in third place nineteen ninety
three with a seventeen. Believe itor not, Peyton Manning comes in at
fourth. In twenty fourteen, hehad an av of sixteen, which was
even higher than his av of fifteenin twenty twelve when he was a first
team All Pro selection. So ifyou're looking at the top fifteen single seasons
at quarterback for Denver, you're goingto see Manning three times. You're going

(04:46):
to see a lot of lay.You're going to see Jay Cutler coming in
there at fifth place with a fifteen, and you're going to see two appearances
by Jake Plummer. He had afifteen in two thousand and five and a
fourteen in two thousand and four.As we look back on, you know,
on the careers of all this,it's fascinating to me that Rod Smith
is that high love Rod, Rodis one of our favorites. He always

(05:08):
does the heroes thank you charity withmyself, Ryan Edwards and now more recently
myself and Nick Ferguson. You know, but Rod was a special player as
a special work ethic. But justhow special is this number saying that he
is well. It's a testament toboth his efficiency and his longevity coming into
the NFL in nineteen ninety five.His career was so long that he came

(05:30):
into the league right after Joe Montanaretired, and then the ended his career
when Jay Cubler was a rookie,So he had an impressive run in Denver.
And so just some cool statistics,unnecessarily pertaining to AV but I think
they're worth noting. Is between nineteenninety seven and two thousand and five,
which is really the prime of Rod'scareer, he produced a total of ten

(05:50):
thousand, eight hundred and forty yardsfrom scrimmage. I let out that out
to a seventeen game season. Itwould be as if he produced one thousand
in three hundred and seven yards everysingle year for nine consecutive years. And
it wasn't just the excellence that hehad, certainly with John throwing him the
football, but you can make theargument that he was even better after John

(06:13):
la retired. Really in two thousand, he caught one hundred receptions one thousand,
six hundred and two yards eight touchdowns, and then the following year led
the NFL with one hundred and thirteenreceptions, one three hundred and forty three
yards, eleven touchdowns. The combinationof him and Eddie Mack, if you
go back to two thousand, theywere two of the top four in terms

(06:35):
of the NFL's leaders and receptions.Rod had one hundred, Eddie Mack had
one on one and if you expandedthat out to nineteen ninety nine through two
thousand, so right after la leftus, we're having a mixture here of
Bobby Brister and Brian Greasi. Hehad one hundred and seventy nine receptions from
Rod Smith, which ranked five overall NFL players during that span, and

(06:56):
Eddie Mack bought one hundred and seventytwo passes, so he was dominant across
different eras and his durability. Hestarted a minimum of fourteen games every year
from nineteen ninety seven all the waythrough two thousand and six, so he's
far and away one of the bestplayers in Broncos franchise history for sure.
Talking with Ryan Michael, the RyanMichael on Twitter talking about a justin Value
and how it's metric captures the performancesof players in both individual years and their

(07:19):
careers. What about chunks of time, like, for instance, the twenty
twenties. It's like, who hasbeen the best Broncos player over the last
three seasons. You're going to makeme feel depressed here because it's a little
bit too soon to be talking aboutJustin Simmons. But Justin Simmons for the
decade is far and away the BroncosAvy leader at thirty nine. Patzer ten

(07:41):
is second place at twenty nine,Garret Bulls third place at twenty seven.
So it's going to be and Iknow we've talked about this a lot over
the last few months, but it'sgoing to be virtually impossible to replace what
it was that Justin Simmons brought tothe team. People need to bear in
mind, this is a guy whois a four times second team All Pro
twenty nineteen, twenty twenty one,twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three.

(08:03):
He need two Pro Bowls, buttrust me, being second team All Pro
is far more difficult and far morereflective of excellence on the field. So
he put up baby squares of twelvein twenty nineteen and twelve again in twenty
twenty one. His presence is goingto be missed for sure, but I'm
hoping that the totality of moves thatwe've done both through the drafted free agency
is going to help maybe not fillthat hole directly, but indirectly. Justin's

(08:28):
yeah, I mean statistically, Ithink everyone knows that what he brought to
the table is going to be toughto replicate. They're hoping to do that
a bit in the aggregate, butalso the leadership, you know that he
brought to the table is going tobe something that's going to be sorely missed
as well. We look at someof the other players over the twenty twenties,
guys like passer Tan Garrett Bowles obviouslyup there as well. Who over

(08:52):
the leaders this past season? Imean, you know, obviously the season
wasn't with the Broncos at Hope,but who are who were by this number
some of the best players the Broncoshad last year. Listeners might be surprised
to know that it's Russell Wilson.He had an av of twelve last year,
and Justin Simmons was behind him secondplace with a nine, and then
Bowls Cooper and Certan both produced aneight. So there was a lot that

(09:15):
Russell Wilson did well, and we'vetalked about the efficiency numbers many times before.
Top ten in passer rating, hewas top ten in touchdown passes despite
missing two games, led the AFCin touchdown pass percentage. So there was
a lot that rust did on thefield during the time that he did play
for us. Whether or not we'regoing to see a rookie quarterback step into

(09:37):
the starting role in producing av aroundtwelve I think is a bit ambitious,
But he was the leader last yearin twenty twenty three. Ironic that he's
gone because not to say that wedidn't move in the appropriate direction. I
think it was a mutual parting ofthe waves. But I don't think that
he was acknowledged for being one ofour best contributors last year, and I

(09:58):
think he should be. These numbersdon't well. Build are very dominant,
So it looks like we had goodplayers at some positions, but nobody really
dominating at their position. Is amI reading this correct? You are?
You are? And again last yearwe're an offense finished towards the middle of
the pack and scoring and the defensethat finished towards the bottom of the league
in terms of points surrendered. Sowhen you look at our eight to nine

(10:20):
record last year, that's not thestandard that we set here in Broncos Country,
but it could have been a lotworse given how we performed on both
sides of the football. So ifthere's a glass half full perspective to take
away from this, then is thatthe only place to go is up.
And I am very hopeful both offensivelyand especially defensively, that will take a

(10:41):
few steps forward this year myself aswell. I'll talk with Ryan Michael v
Ryan Michael on the Twitter machine.Well, okay, that sort of begs
the question, then, who dowe project to be the Broncos leader in
twenty twenty four? I would say, a hand on a hot stove reaction
would be patz or Tan. Ithink with a lot of the additions we've

(11:01):
made defensively and having another year withVance Joseph being able to run what it
is he's running, I think it'sgoing to allow Pats or Tan to be
the best version of himself. He'sstill a very young football player, and
having already been a first team AllPro selection, you might think that he's
already reached his ceiling, but Ithink the best for him is yet to
come. He would be my pickif I had to predict a Navy leader

(11:22):
for twenty twenty four, How wouldyou rate my pick of Nick Benito?
You know, I think that he'san underrated player and a fantastic I have
a fantastic opportunity to be a greatcontributor. Is he going to be someone
who leads the team in av No? I don't think so. But the
Broncos traditionally have been teams that havefound success collectively as units. Of course,

(11:43):
we've had amazing single players Peyton Mannand chant Valley von Miller for shore,
but if you look at our historythroughout the decade, they think the
Broncos' greatest strength has just been thestrength of our roster from top to bottom.
So I think that's what we're workingto establish. It's not going to
happen and overnight, but I'm optimistic. Yeah. You've talked a little bit

(12:03):
on the Jags flagship recently about TrevorLawrence and his contract that he's signed,
and more happy to see that.You're getting certainly more media run in other
markets. You definitely deserve it.But Trevor Lawrence, is he worth the
money with what he has produced sofar and what he's projected to do.
In my opinion, and I talkedabout this on JAG's flagship last week.

(12:24):
In my opinion, it's an obviousyes, but I understand that when I
say that that it doesn't necessarily meshwith public perception. I think that his
rookie year under Urban Meyer, whichis arguably the worst playing situation any quarterback
has seen this millennium. But obviously, no matter how you slice it,
it was a huge disappointment for Trevorand the Jags. Twenty twenty two was

(12:48):
a step forward for sure, andcertainly the way the team fizzled out at
the end last year I think leftpeople feeling very disappointed. If the winning
had happened towards the end of theyear and they finished with a nine to
eight record and still missed the postseason, I think the perception would be different
from having frizzled out towards the end. So when I look at Trevor Lawrence,

(13:09):
I'm looking at a guy who mostpeople might even rank outside of the
top ten right now, I think, looking at the raw numbers, then
people don't know how to react tohim. And I coined the hashtag all
twenty two Trevor, because I'd makethe argument that last year Trevor Lawrence was
not just the most exciting, butthe most impressive quarterback in the entire league

(13:30):
to watch on tape when you're lookingat coaches films. So some of the
more advanced metrics, he ranked numberone in the AFC in adjusted EPA per
play, so that's taking EPA butalso factoring in pass protection where Jacksonville was
towards the very bottom of the leaguerushing support, the team finished dead last

(13:50):
in yards per carry. If youexclude Lawrence's production on the ground, he
was actually their most efficient runner.Dropped the passes, drop touchdown passes.
There were a number of drop touchdownpasses. There were a number of passes
where he hit his receivers in thehands and got bobbled up and picked off.
So every interception has a story.Every touchdown, even the ones that
don't happen, also have a story. So through advanced metrics he rates very

(14:13):
high. The year before that,he actually finished the year higher in DVA
than Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts,who both produced MVP caliber seasons. He's
been top ten in sack percentage everyyear of his career, from urban Meyer
all the way through last year wherehe had no time in the pocket whatsoever
to breathe or survive. And evenif you go back to twenty twenty two

(14:35):
when people were arguing that Lawrence wasat his best using DVA, although Lawrence
rated very highly, as teammates didn'tmeasure up to those same kinds of numbers.
Travis e Pan finished twentieth amongst runningbacks at zero point eight percent.
I think that's quite low. ChristianKirk thirty first amongst receivers, A Jones
fifty first, Evan Ingram fifteenth,a monthst tight end when the defense was

(14:58):
the second worst in the AFC andtheir pass deference was thirtieth in the NFL,
and they weren't too different than honestlylast year. The only team in
the AFC to give up more touchdownpasses in the Jags. It's hard ten
ver Broncos. So when you lookto Trevor Lawrence as a guy who pops
on tape, who's still producing ata top ten level by a number of

(15:20):
standard statistical metrics, but certainly isbetter in terms of the advanced metrics,
there's no question to me that hewas worth every penny. And I think
that when people are critical of quarterbackswho are the beneficiaries of large salaries,
tying in his case, an alltime NFL record at fifty five million dollars
a year, they need to havea better understanding of how the salary cap

(15:43):
works. Obviously, in cases likeTrevor Lawrence, you can backload a lot
of those dollars to make it moreof a team friendly deal, even if
the average comes out to fifty fivemillion dollars a year. But if you
look at the distance between his contractJared Goff at fifty three million to two
million dollar difference less than one percentof the total salary cap. And if

(16:03):
you look at the distance between Lawrenceand say a more averagery than below average
quarterback like Deshaun Watson making forty sixmillion, the difference of nine million dollars
is roughly three and a half percentof the total cap. So when,
in my view, we scapeboat quarterbackswho earn high salaries, we need to
be very specific in terms of whatit is we're talking about, because yes,

(16:25):
they're getting paid a ton of money, and yes they're getting paid a
lot more in elite players at otherpositions, but relative to the totality of
the salary cap three and a halfpercent, the distance between Trevor Lawrence and
Deshaun Watson is not the reason theJaguars are going to struggle. It's going
to be the way they assemble theirroster in totality. Well, when we
come back, we're all going tomake fun of Ryan for his quarterback rankings

(16:48):
that he put out yesterday. I'vegot a bone to pick with you,
sir, Roccos Country, and that'llbe back after this. Keep it up
with the NBA Draft, see you. Freshman Cody Williams was taking tenth overall
the Utah Jazz. Cody was thefirst CU freshman ever selected Hinelada in the
NBA Draft, first top ten picksince Chauncey billups out a CEEU, and

(17:11):
he was the first McDonald's All Americanof the program's first five star recruit in
more than two decades. But hewill now be playing for the Utah Jazz.
Tristan and Silva, of course,hasn't been drafting yet. Dalton Connect
interestingly, who Vegas opened the oddsat nine and a half, was bet
up to seven and a half.He was bet basically to be taken the
either seventh or eighth pick. Righthe's still on the board at fifteenth with

(17:33):
the Miami Heats selecting right now.So disappointing night for the Prarierview High schooler
and former North Colorado Bear Dalton connectHoping he gets he gets picked up here
soon. We're gonna go right backout to the kaw comments for the Hotline
and continue our discussion with Ryan Michaelat the Ryan Michael on Twitter. Ryan,

(17:53):
you put out your quarterback rankings fortwenty twenty four yesterday, and first
of all, I guess I'm askingare these based on how you project them
out? What exactly is the criterionfor this, because I wanted to delve

(18:14):
in on where some of these peopleare ranked. Absolutely, what I can
tell you, Ben is it's certainlynot a ranking of how well everybody played
in twenty twenty three, and it'salso not a ranking of how well in
terms of team success or even rawnumbers. I'm projecting the quarterbacks to play
in twenty twenty four the way thatI look at it is, and it's

(18:37):
not including backup quarterbacks. Right,So you're going to see Kirk Cousins here,
not Michael Pennix, and we'll seeif you know Kirk's health. I
just put Kirk Cousins on there fornow. But amongst the thirty two projected
starters, at least at some pointin the twenty twenty four season, I
ranked them from first to last interms of if I were assembling a roster

(18:57):
with an average coaching staff, averagesituation, average support, who am I
taking and in one order? AndI would say the only ranking on my
list where I would say where Iput him might not live up to the
criteria I just mentioned would probably beBrock Perty. He was by far and
away the toughest quarterback to rank.I have him at tent. Statistically in

(19:18):
terms of rock numbers, he wasarguably the best last year. Would I
build a team around rock Perty beforeI would build it around Jalen Hurtz or
Justin Herbert. No, he wasa tough, tricky ranking. So I
put him at ten. And I'mwilling to defend all of my spots.
I'm sure everyone will be in agreement. My list was perfect. Well,
if history is any indicator, you, sir, we'll be way off with

(19:41):
at least with Fan opinion. Anyway, I'm gonna start from the bottom of
this list because you had Will Levisranked dead last, and I thought Will
Levis showed a few flashes last year. He's getting probably someone that's arguably a
better offensive mind for him to beable to showcase that in Brian Kellen as
a new coach, and obviously BillKellen's going to retol that offensive line they

(20:03):
figured to run a scheme is alittle different. Obviously, Derek Henry not
there anymore. Why Will Levis deadlast of all the starters, Well,
We'll Levis being at thirty second isn'tso much an indictment on Will Levis as
much as it is I do havethis factor in a player's college football career,
how they were projected coming into theNFL. So even Bryce Young at

(20:26):
thirty first, he was obviously takenfirst overall. He had a disastrous statistical
season last year, and so WillLevis isn't exactly a first round guy,
even though a lot of people peggedhim to be. He finished twenty second
and adjusted nutguards per attempt last year, a three and six record. I
certainly think in terms of onfield performance, he's not going to be the quarterback
and finished his dead last in termsof volume more efficiency, So he was

(20:48):
a tough ranking in that regard aswell. What you'll see is the NFL
right now. I was pretty stackedthen in terms of quarterback prospects when you
have a guy like Bryce Young atnumber thirty one, and you have first
round draft prospects who the teams thedraft of them at least are projecting and
hoping that they'll become elite franchise quarterbacksin time. I have Drank may at

(21:10):
twenty ninth, JJ McCarthy at twentyseven, Jayden Daniels at twenty fifth.
On it's twenty fourth, Caleb Williamstwenty first. So there are a lot
of players on the list who haveeither played well or they were projected to
be at least eventual good starting quarterbacksin the NFL. So there's only thirty
FIO spots, no disrespectable levis,but that's where I put them. Yeah,

(21:30):
you've got Baker Mayfield nineteen, DerekCarr eighteen, Russell Wilson seventeen,
Aaron Rodgers sixteen. Is injury afactor with any of this or is this
strictly play on the field. It'sinjury and age. So you'll see that
you have Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson all clumb together.
And so it's a little bit ofa mixture in terms of me being concerned
about the state of their health,the state of their age. Certainly a

(21:53):
new situation for Aaron Rodgers, notcompletely new because he's been in the building
most days. But yeah, Imean these are players who, in terms
of Russell Wilson's efficiency, as wesaid at the top of the hour,
played at a top ten level bymany metrics, and I think relative to
his situation last year, you couldmake the argument he was a top ten
quarterback. What I see statistically andin terms of performance is regression is really

(22:18):
a thing. So I look atRussell Wilson as a quarterback who outperformed his
situation last year relatives to his age, relatives to the scheme he was forced
into. So even though I certainlylike schematically the situation he's walking into in
Pittsburgh, I expect regression. Sothose guys were tough to rank, and
I did put a note when Iinitially posted my rankings that all of the

(22:40):
spots are pretty volatile I'm not lockedinto anybody at any one spot, much
more so than I would say TopMahomes at number one is there until he
isn't. But I expect to seea lot of movement as the season goes
on. The top ten of thislist is interesting, as you've got obviously
brought part of the aforementioned ten,But at number nine you've got takovloa aka
Tua there at number nine that seemsperhaps a little low for what Dolphins fans

(23:07):
would have him ran. And thenyou've got Jordan Love at eight right above
him. Why Love above Hawk Tua? It was tough because Tua has played
at a high level for two consecutiveyears now. He's also in a situation
that's far more supportive than what JordanLove played with last year, And so
if we were talking just purely theraw numbers, Ben Tua would be tough

(23:29):
five, There's no question about it. I'd even make the argument he's one
of the most underrated quarterbacks in theNFL. But in terms of Jordan Love,
am I being a little bit optimisticfrom what I've seen? Absolutely I
am. I was very impressed withwhat he did last year in Green Bay.
I would stress, and really thesame is also the case for CJ.
Stroud. When you see a youngquarterback coming to the NFL, whether

(23:52):
they're a rookie or whether it's theirfirst season, is a full time starter,
it's not unusual. I don't wantto say that it's easy, but
it's not unusual to see them playat a high level because there's certainly an
advantage to opposing coaches not having theAll twenty two film to study, or
certainly not having much of it.I can speak from my own experience.

(24:15):
I've been an assistant coach in theISFL and now in the ELF with the
Barcelona Dragon, so it's not theNFL, but I have coached against players
who played in the NFL, andI have coached against coaches who have been
part of NFL coaching staffs, andmy primary responsibility has always been scouting opposing
quarterbacks. That's essentially been my specialtyand from my personal experience, and I'd
love to hear Nick's experience because atthe NFL level, obviously things become more

(24:38):
and more difficult. But when I'mpreparing for a quarterback where there's little to
know, coaches film to study,it's a significant disadvantage for me, it's
a significant disadvantage for the pain.And if you have quarterbacks who have fantastic
law physical skills, they're going towin a lot of man demand matchups because
stematically we're actually sure how to playthem. And as the season goes on,

(25:03):
or as we head into season twoor season three of these quarterbacks,
and there's more film to study ascoaches, schematically we have far greater opportunity
to prepare to shut them down.So it's not to take away from how
amazing CJ. Strout, Especially cJ. Strout had arguably the greatest rookie
season we've seen in a decade.Will he be able to have lightning strike

(25:25):
twice as going to be the question, because it's difficult to rank quarterback like
that. Then that's one of themany reasons why I'm a little bit higher
on Trevor Lawrence than I am onCJ. Stroud Er too, it we
both put up better standard statistical numbers. You do have Trevor Lawrence at four
on this list. We'll get tothat a second, but CJ. Stroud
at number six feels a little highto me. You know, I'm not

(25:49):
saying he's a one year wonder,but I feel like once teams got that
tape on what it is the Texaswere doing on offense last year and on
him, I feel like defensive coordinatscatch up with them a little bit this
year. I see you who apparentlyfeel differently. Well. As I said,
he had arguably the greatest rookie passingseason in a decade. And while
in a certain sense, I'd makethe argument that his supporting cast might be

(26:11):
a little bit underrated in the sensethat they're certainly playing at a higher level
than a lot of the players wherethey were taken in the NFL draft.
He's certainly not playing in a broadparty situation. He's certainly not playing in
a situation that you could say,Okay, this is a guy who is
just the product of the system.He's a guy who really elevated the entire

(26:33):
franchise and turned them into a playoffteam. Year one, he finished third
in the NFL and adjusted at yardsper attempt, which is, you know,
one of my favorite stats. OnlyPurty intu well higher than him there,
and in terms of yards per attempt, the average eight point two yards
per passing attempt third in the league. So could he fly down from number
six, certainly he could. Iam anticipating regression, but at the same

(26:55):
time I have to give credit forcredits too. He did play that well
last year. I find it interestingthat Stroud by the numbers was very similar
or slightly inferior to Derek Carr,and yet everybody it kind of dumps on
Derek Carr's year last year and praiseto c J. Stroud. Is that
simply the youth factor or am Imissing shouting? I think it's a little

(27:18):
bit of both. And Derek Carris the old youthed car for lack of
it and the pun intended there.And he's been an underrated quarterback at many
times. We talked about him before. He's a very serviceable starting quarterback who
when playing at his best, canplay at a Pro Bowl level. The
function of CJ. Stroud being thenew toy is definitely going to elevate his
status in the minds of a lotof people. For me, that doesn't

(27:41):
play a factor. I mean youcan tell looking at my rankings then I
don't factor in whatsoever what public perceptionis going to be. I have a
pretty good idea of what most people'stop ten that it's going to look like
I really try to base it onthe totality of everything I evaluate by film
first and foremost, the analytics,the standard statistic majors, and as I
always say, performance relative to contextof playing situations. So by advanced numbers

(28:06):
I had mentioned for Trevor Lawrence,he finished number one in the AFC last
year and adjusted EPA. Derek Carrfinished sixth in the NFL and adjusted EPA
at zero point two two s atthe head of TUA Stafford Mans, Jordan
Love, c J. Stroud,Jalen Hurts. So statistically, from an
analytics perspective, Derek Carr had avery underrated twenty twenty three season. However,

(28:30):
I know who Derek Carr is fromwatching a film with him for over
a decade. I don't yet knowexactly who CJ. Stroud is, So
I don't know if that helps explainthe distance between the two. Fair enough,
Trevor Lawrence at number four on yourlist, obviously you share a higher
opinion of Trevor Lawrence that I do. I understand the supporting cast arguments and
things like that, but it feelslike this offense has basically been tailored with

(28:52):
young talent around him. One ofyour favorite numbers in mine adjusted net yards
per attempts. He was under sixlast year, eighteenth in the league.
Why Trevor Lawrence a four? Youknow, Trevor Lawrence at four is really
the product of watching him on film. As I said earlier at the top
of the hour, I don't knowif there's a single quarterback who impressed me
more than Trevor Lawrence did on alltwenty two films. So the raw numbers

(29:15):
are not spectacular. The raw efficiencynumbers are even less spectacular, that's for
sure. A lot of that,I believe is the function of him playing
at least half the season injured andthe injuries. The injuries got progressively worse
as he put more and more treadon the tires as the season went on.
So when I look at the teamof Jacksonville, I said this on

(29:37):
Jags flaveship recently. Relative to wherethey were in twenty twenty one, the
roster they have now is a gargantueland upgrade. And I think because of
the distance that they traveled from wherethey were under Urban Meyer to where they
are now under Doug Peterson, wealmost inflate the caliber of that roster.
Travis Epn is obviously an incredible talent, but he's also a running back to

(30:00):
display significant regression, probably more thefunction of issues in run blocking than anything
else. Last year, but theJags finished dead last in the NFL in
the yards per carry if you excludeLawrence's production. They finished dead last in
rushing d XP, which is anotherPro Football reference efficiency metric. And I
don't view anybody on their roster fromtwenty twenty two all the way up through

(30:22):
now in twenty twenty four as beinga top fifteen wide receiver. So I
don't think the situation that Trevor Lawrencehas played in over the last two years
is spectacular whatsoever. I think theJaguars are a roster that looks a lot
better in the video game than itdoes actually on film. And so the
totality of all this factors having mefeeling very confident with Trevor Lawrence at number

(30:44):
four, in addition to him being, in my opinion, the greatest college
football quarterback prospect I've ever seen.I might be in the minority there.
Other folks would have him third orfourth if I have him number one.
Ron we certainly appreciate you sticking aroundfor the full hour. Looking forward to
to talk to you again next week, where I hope maybe we can dive
in on what the expectations should befor these Broncos rookies, what time has

(31:07):
told us about different draft slots,different positions, how long it takes them
to, you know, to kindof find their footing in the league.
I'm looking forward to hopefully diving inon that aspect. Sounds absolutely take care
ry like I have the Ryan Michaelon Twitter. Always love getting into the
data side of the house with hima little bit, and you know he's
he's got a keen football eye forthings in addition to the numbers, that

(31:30):
sort of helps, you know,helps to elucidate that. I've always felt
that analytics football and tape football couldcould do better job. Quit fighting each
other, marry up with each otherand and you know, kind of sift
through things to uh to find betterways to do things. I think Ryan
does a great job of kind ofcutting through the red tape on that.

(31:51):
Still don't agree with him with TrevorLawrence at number four, and he's a
little higher on Trevor than I am, And I'll forgive he could and and
I might look like an idiot foryou know, suggested that, in which
case we will delete this tape.But uh uh anyway, five six six
nine zero is the text line.I appreciate the three one five for listening.
Yeah, I'm uh they're putting mein time out for their Hawk Tour
comments. But depend on that thing. That's lord Yeah that that uh,

(32:15):
the memes on that. Did yousee somebody uh created a a hawk to
a song to the Hallelujah. Youcan find that one during the break.
It is uh. I don't thinkwe can play it on the air,
but it was. It was phenomenal. So anyway, we come back expectations
with Broncos. What's good, what'sbad, what's the disaster? What's success?

(32:37):
You listen to Broncos Country, notk