October 21, 2022 • 41 mins
Ben Maller and his 5th Hour home-slice Danny G. have a special broadcast for you, as the popular BENNY VS. THE PENNY takes over the Friday podcast for yet another week! What's the head-to-head record for the season so far? Who'll get more football picks right in NFL Week 7.. Ben after hours of research, or an inanimate object? Every game is picked against the spread, with Maller-style analysis!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Ka boom. If you thought four hours a day, minutes
a week was enough, I think again. He's the last
remnants of the old republic, a sole fashion of fairness.
He treats crackheads in the ghetto cutter the same as
the rich pill poppers in the penthouse, to clearinghouse of
hot takes. Break free for something special. The Fifth Hour
(00:23):
with Ben Maller starts right now, nine in the air everywhere.
Welcome into a special bonus edition of the Fifth Hour
with Ben Maller and Danny G. Radio. As we go
at it, Mono amano, belly to belly, face to face
(00:48):
the Penny. It is week seven of Benny Versus the Penny,
and we are back at it here to break down
every NFL game against the spread. We provide sports handicapping
for the regular guy. I have done this for a
long time, looking at all the numbers and all of
(01:10):
the information available, and I try to pick winners. Here
the coin, the Penny an indamant object also picking winners,
and so we'll see who does better. And the home
team heads, the road team tales and Danny G is
the spokesman for the Penny, and Danny is right there. Hello, Danny, Yo,
(01:33):
what's up? This is gonna be an interesting NFL Sunday,
because based on your Halloween party, we might be waking
up semi sluggishly on Sunday morning, bunch of hooker. I
might be waking up actually for the Sunday night game,
which is the Dolphins and the Steelers. That might be
the only game I actually watch this this weekend. But
(01:56):
the the teams that aren't playing, the Buffalo Bills not playing,
that's the top team in football by most accounts. The Eagles,
who are the only unbeaten team. They're not playing, the
Rams and the Vikings. So four of the top teams
in the NFL, well three of the top teams in
the Rams are not participating in week number seven. But
(02:17):
before we get to all the games here in week
seven on Sunday and Monday, welcome players, You're welcome. It's
time now, Betty versus the penny. We must look back
(02:37):
at what happened back in Week six. Got off to
a pretty good start, Danny. In Week six, I was
really doing well in the early television window, and then
they had to play the late television window and that
that did not go so well for me. But overall,
another winning week, only a couple of games over five.
There were fourteen games in the NFL last weekend. If
(03:00):
you're listening along, you know that I went eight and
six against the spread, a five seventy one winning percentage.
The penny went nine and five. So the penny beat
me head to head, the penny winning in a six
forty three clip last week's so good job by the penny.
And overall. Now this is where it gets really wild, Danny,
(03:24):
when you go overall. So my record against the spread,
I have won fifty three and lost thirty eight, tied three.
So that's a five eighty two winning percentage, which is
in the in the black. It's in the black because
to win money as a sports better you have to
practice money management. But you have to win more than
(03:47):
fifty two point four percent of your bets. That's the
magic number, fifty two percent. You have to win more
than that to win money. So we're five eighty two.
That's good the penny. I did the math on this, Danny,
and I had to do it again and again and
again and again and again and again. I kept going back.
I said, this can't be right. There's no way this
(04:07):
can be right. Apparently it's right. So there have been
so many, so many times, so many games we've done here,
we've done week six. Now heading into week seven, there
are ninety four NFL games that we have had on
Benny versus the Penny. The penny is forty sixty six
(04:28):
and two. Damn, how is that. I know it's possible
because it's a fifty fifty shot, but I don't recall
that ever being the case this far into the season
where it's exactly five. That's pretty wild. That's pretty wild.
So you might want to have a word to the
penny there. I don't know what's going on there, but man,
(04:49):
but well, I get to it. Here we go. Let's
get to the games on the card here in week seven,
we'll start with the early television window. This is the
big game on CBS, Jim Nance and Tony Romo. It's
two NFC teams, but it is a CBS game. Detroit
one and four at Dallas four and two. The Cowboys
opened up a six and a half point favorite, their
(05:09):
favorite by seven and a half. In this game. Over
eight percent of the money on the Cowboys at a
T and T Stadium. Some of the numbers here. The
Cowboys their last ten games against the spread at home
against the NFC North, there just two and eight against
that division. At home the Lions, they'll have the NFL's
worst defense. They're allowing thirty four points per game and
(05:33):
four in or twenty eight yards per game. Detroit, though,
has been good for gamblers coming off of bye over
the years. Their nine and one against the spread their
last ten coming off of by so that's ten years,
and the last seven on the road after a by
there's seven and oh against the spread. I'm taking the
Lions in this game. Detroit is rested, They're coming off
(05:55):
a bye week. Dallas is coming off a hard fought
loss to a division rival, the Eagles, key divisional game.
In that matchup, Dak Prescott's coming back from a finger
finger injury. But will he be rusted? Are the Cowboys
making a mistake bringing him back here and jumping the
gun because you know, play against the Lions, soft start here,
(06:18):
easy game, you would assume blah blah blah blah blah.
But coming off of by the Lions getting some guys
back from injury, Jared Goff and the offense should be
able to put some points up even with that Cowboy
defense intimidating Michael Parsons and whatnot. But I love getting
this many points. You're getting over a touchdown a team
coming off of bye. I am taking the Lions to
(06:41):
cover the spread. Cowboys twenty six, Lions the right side
of the bed at twenty and the Penny picks right
off the bat at disagreement. Penny going with Dak and
the Cowboys. All right, So disagreement on that game. We're
off to a flying start. Next up, the g I
A and T S Giants at five and one against
(07:05):
Jacksonville two and four. It's on Fox with Chris Myers
and Mark lay Rith, and the Jags opened up a
three point favorite in this game. They are still favored
by three. This is a shocking point spread too many,
considering the difference in records here between Jacksonville and the
Giants at least seventy five degrees. That kick off at
T I A A Bank Stadium in Jacksonville. Some of
(07:27):
the numbers here. The Giants are five and one against
the spread this year, so there're five on one overall,
but also against the spread with Brian Dable and with
Daniel Jones going back even a little further. The last
ten games, they are ten and two against the spread,
with Jones starting in the last fifteen on the road,
(07:48):
the Giants are ten and five against the spread. Jacksonville
as a favorite, they have been a terrible play. If
you look at the numbers here two and eight against
the spread their last ten as a favorite. That tells
what has happened, not what's going to happen. But I'm
taking the Giants here. This might be a sucker play.
The money is about even on this. Sequon Barkley should
(08:08):
slice up the Jacksonville linebacking Courts Jacksonville. They have put
a lot of yards up between the twenties, and that's
one of the reasons I think this line is the
way it is. They've struggled, though, to consistently score touchdowns,
and they've also made a lot of mental mistakes to
lose games here, including last week against the Colts, where
they'll come out, they'll have a two touchdown lead early
(08:30):
and then play sloppy football. I don't see that stopping here.
The Giants ranked ninth in pressure rates, so they should
be able to blitz Trevor Lawrence up the wazoo, which
is normally a recipe for the quarterback to make mistakes,
and this, this line scares me because it looks like
it's completely wrong. And I'm on the side of the
(08:52):
public in many respects, but I think the Giants are
just the right side here. They should win this game. Now,
maybe they won't, maybe they'll come out flat. No, they'll
lose this game by ten points. But I am taking
the Giants twenty four and the Jags twenty the final,
(09:12):
and the penny is with you in the public on this.
Going with the Giants, alright, So agreement on that. Next up,
Indianapolis three two on one at Tennessee three and two.
It's on CBS with Andrew Catalan and James Lofton on
the call. The Titans opened up a one and a
half point favorite. They're favored by two and a half
in this game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Are getting
(09:35):
a new stadium. They just announced it this week, so
in a few years we'll have another Dome stadium in
the NFL. Titans are six and one their last seven
games with Ryan Tannehill against the Colts, five and two
with Mike Rabel against the Colts and Frank Right obviously
the other side of that, he's two and five against
(09:56):
the Tennessee Titans. As the coach in Indie, I'm taking
the tight and I'll tell you why. Tennessee's offense. They
are stuck in mud here. But they have regularly outgunned
the regularly are regular outgun is what I'm trying to
stay here. If the guy could talk, that would help. Uh.
But there they've been very opportunistic on defense and special
teams and they've really been the vultures, which is more
(10:17):
important than raw yardage. It's getting turnovers, big special teams plays.
And Indianapolis is tied for second with five pass interference
penalties against the second here, So you look at that. Also,
this referee for this game, Ron Torbert. You know, I'm
I'm going deep in the weeds when I'm looking at
the referee match up. But this Ron Torbert, the referee,
(10:41):
M yeah, exactly. His crew, he's no ed hockey. His
crew has called the most defensive pass interference calls in
the Leake. So what does that mean? That means that
there should be some opportunities there for the Titans to
gain yardage on pass interference calls. The Colts have made
a lot of those mistakes and Matt Ryan is a
(11:02):
turnover waiting to happen here. So it's really Derrick Henry,
a little bit of Ryan Tannehill, and I'm gonna take
the small favorite the Tennessee Titans to win this game
twenty seven to twenty three. Titans over the Colts will
be your final. And the Penny says, don't give up
(11:25):
on Matt Ryan yet, going with Indie no no. I
believe Matt Ryan and the horse shoes should go to
the glue factory. Next up Atlanta three and three at Cincinnati,
the End of the Rainbow, also three and three. It's
on Fox with Brianden Godden, Brandon Godden and Robert Smith.
They have to call. The Bengals opened up a six
(11:49):
and a half point favorite, and they are a six
point favorite in this game in sixty percent of the
money on the side of Cincinnati. If you look at
the handle here at eight Corps Stadium formerly Paul Brown Stadium,
but pay Corps Stadium. There sunny and seventy two in Cincinnati.
Atlanta was supposed to be a pile of ship this season.
(12:11):
They have not been that. They are five hundred and
the Falcons are the only team left that is perfect
against the spread. There's six and oh against the spreads,
so that either means they're due to lose or this
is just their year to have the amazing record against
the number eight into their last ten with Arthur Smith
(12:32):
coaching and Cincinnati, if you look at the trends here
two and five their last seven at home in October,
and three and seven their last ten at home in
non conference games. I am gonna take the Falcons, and
I might have to rinse my mouth out, but I'm
gonna take the Falcons here Cincinnati. I'll tell you why.
Cincinnati is much more talented in pretty much every offensive
(12:57):
category than Atlanta, and they are lacking, though the Falcons,
the wow factor. But they've been able to be pesky
and opportunistic. They've fallen behind in games like, for example,
the Rams game, and then they snuck in backdoor cover.
They've done that a couple of times. But the Dirty
Birds they don't have any pass rush, which scares me.
(13:17):
So that should give Joe Burrow plenty of opportunity to
chuck it down field. But I'm gonna ride with the
boys from Georgia getting almost a touchdown against what has
been a Cincinnati team that has underachieved. They had to
come back to beat the Saints last week. They're still
missing something there there. They haven't been able to figure
it out what's wrong with the ben Gals, but they
(13:41):
just haven't been the same dominant team to this point.
So I'm gonna take the Falcons twenty four and the
Bengals twenty three the final and the penny also living
on the edge, Going with the Falcons, Going with the
dirty birds, all right? Next up for US Cleveland at
(14:04):
two and four at Baltimore three and three. It's on
CBS with Kevin Harlan and Trent Green as they go
off the beaten path. The Ravens opened up a six
point favorite. They are favored by seven in this game. Yes,
the same Baltimore team that lost last week to the
(14:24):
Giants is a seven point favorite this week and over
eight percent of the money if you look at the
handle is on the side of Baltimore. At M and
T Bank Stadium, temperatures in the mid sixties at kickoff.
Will we see a cosmetic change to the Ravens offense
which is all of a sudden gone the wrong way.
Will it matter in this game? The Browns are nine
(14:46):
and nineteen against John Harbaugh coached Raven teams and Kevin Stefanski,
and the Brownies are six and nine the last fifteen
games they've gone. Lamar Jackson actually has a losing record
against the spread and at home, So I'm gonna take
the Browns here. This is an aesthetically non pleasing game.
(15:08):
You'd rather watch a stick of dyna might blow up
than watch this game. But the Browns have. They've lost
three straight. They were blown out by the Patriots and
Bailey Zappy last week. Things look bleak. However, You're never
as bad as people say you are. You're never as
good as people say you are. This is a bounce
back spot for Cleveland divisional game. They're close to getting
(15:29):
Denzel Award back. He had a concussion. Jadeveon Clowne, He's
got all kinds of injuries, your knee, your ankle, your elbow,
and Miles Garrett, still dealing with the after effect of
the car accident, is supposed to come back. The issue
here is all those miss tackles. The Browns have not
been prim and proper on defense. They've been in position
(15:50):
to make tackles. It's the most frustrating thing. I see
it all the time with the Rams, and so the
Browns are one of these teams where they get guys
in position to make a play and then the it's
an ankle tackle or the receiver, the running back runs
through the tackle. It's embarrassed. And Lamar Jackson on the
other side, he has regressed the last couple weeks. It's
(16:11):
you're talking about a divisional game. You're getting over a
touchdown or a touchdown, in this case a touchdown. So
I'm gonna take the Browns. I think that's too many points.
Ravens twenty six, Browns twenty on a razor's edge. We
get to win with the Browns. The penny is a
big duvern A fan. Going with the Ravens. The Penny's
(16:34):
forgotten more than I'll ever know. All Right, next up
Green Bay. Actually know we're not doing great, but doing
Tampa Bay. I got my Bays mixed up. Tampa Bay
three and three at Carolina at one in five. It's
on Fox. You better watched. It's the only reason to watch.
Kenny Albert and Jonathan Vilma. The Bucks opened up a
(16:55):
nine and a half point favorite, as they are said
to be on life support after losing the Steelers last week.
The Bucks are in eleven point favorite right now, levin
point favorite for that Tampa Bay team. God bless America
Bank of America Stadium site. Most of the money is
on Tampa. Why would anyone bet on Carolina? They're begging
you to bet on Carolina. They have died like a
(17:17):
dog the Panthers here of late. The Bucks, though their
last fifteen games before playing Atlanta, which is who they
have next week. They're two and thirteen and Tampa two
and four this season against the spread under Todd Bowls,
while Carolina, on the other side, they're on pins and
needles right now, one in nine their last ten home
(17:39):
games and four and eleven their last fifteen as an underdog.
So I am going to take the Panthers in this game.
This is one of those cover your eyes games. This
is where you have to take the value and you
need a couple of things to go right for this
to come full circle. But rather than me, Wax and Wayne,
let's get to the point. It's a peak both special
(18:00):
for the Bucks. They're they're coming off a loss to
the Steelers. They they played a they're playing a morbid
Panthers team this this coming week here on Sunday, and
they have, I believe, a Thursday night game next week.
So Tom Brady looks a little bit off and we're
(18:21):
not sure what that is. Is it age, is it
the fact he's going through a bad marriage. He's disheveled,
and we're not gonna bet on Tom Brady the way
things are going right now. And the Buccaneers really haven't
blown anyone out in a while. They had big leads
in games and gave them up. They still haven't played
a full game. They're living a charmed life despite that,
(18:44):
because they still won three games. They've also lost three.
Philip Walker, who sucks, is going to start, and that's
not good. Jacob Eason is also there, and that's like
the blind leading the blind. So you're not gonna get
much offense here. That's not gonna go so well. But
(19:04):
but you've got other ways to scored. Caroline is gonna
need interception or fumble, special teams, key turnover late in
a half, right before you know halftime. The Bucks turn
the ball over inside their own territory, so it's a
short field. Those kind of things have to go right.
And in Carolina's defense, which has been uh regressing, shall
(19:27):
we say, has to be able to slow down the run.
Otherwise it's gonna be the same old, same old. They'll
lose this game forty to ten, but I say, no
divisional game. You're getting over ten points. Buccaneers win the game,
but they don't win the bet Bucks twenty three Panthers thirteen,
as Carolina pern like a kitten, all right, and the
Penny picks. Penny says, this is the week Brady is
(19:53):
gonna bust out going with the Bucks. He might bust out,
but he's gonna be busting out of his marriage is
what will be busting out of there. That's that. But
I'm all right. Next up, we are going to get
to Green Bay, Green Bay three and three at Washington.
It's on Fox. You better watch. Adam Amin and Darryl
moose Johnson have the call. And I'm trying to rack
my brain on how the hell this line is only
(20:14):
five points. This is one of those lines that makes
no sense. It's so obvious. It jumps off whatever electronic
device you're looking at when you look at the point
spreads the money on this game is relatively even at
FedEx Field, sunny and sixty five degrees at kickoff Green Bay.
(20:35):
They are seven games above on the road against the
spread with Matt la Fleur and Aaron Rodgers. Is last
twenty five road games going back a few years has
been fifteen and ten against the spread. I'm gonna take Washington.
This is another one of those. As a gambler, you
don't want to be on the side of the glamour team,
(20:57):
in this case Green Bay. You want to be on
the side of the gritty team. Washington's a hot mess.
Carson Wentz has a finger injury. He's out. Taylor Heineke
set to take over here and they're gonna mix in
some other options at quarterback. But that's really a lateral move.
Carson Wentz had been bad to the bone. He had
curled up and got into the fetal position several times.
So it's not like this is a huge downgrade if anything.
(21:19):
As I said, it's a lateral move. It's a side step,
couple of steps, and Washington's on thin ice whoever plays quarterback,
so it's not like this is gonna make that big
a difference Carson Wentz, as I said, not good dog
with fleas uh. The Packers, though, have their own issues,
all right, that's my main sticking point here. Green Bay
(21:40):
does not have the wow factor. They lost to the
Jets at home last week, the Giants they lost to
earlier this year. These these are bad losses. It's an
offensive malaise for green Bay. We're not walking down the
memory lane. Back when the Packers were would play a
game like this and they would win thirty five to fourteen.
(22:02):
It's not that same vibe right now. In fact, Green
Bay has had such a disappearing act. I think there's
other stuff going on. Aaron Rodgers will likely scuffle to
get separation from the Commandos, and I wouldn't be shocked
if this is anyone's game in the fourth quarter. Therefore,
I'm gonna take Washington. Call me crazy, just call me.
(22:23):
I believe they'll be blood in the streets as Washington
pulls the upset. Washington twenty Green Bay seventeen. The final
and the Penny picks and the penny is going with
the Commandos, shocking the penny, stealing my work there, bat
job by the penny. All right. Next up, we'll get
(22:44):
to the late television window. The j e t s Jets, Jets,
Jets sucks, sucks, sucked. No more checking those receipts. I
guess the fairy Godmother has helped the Jets out there
four and two Denver, two and four. It's on CBS
with Iron Eagle and Charles David's friend of the podcast.
We had Charles on not that long ago, before the
(23:06):
football season got going. In this game opened Broncos by
three and a half. It has gone all the way
down to a pick them, Sodom and Gomorrah. It's raining sulfur,
A pick them the Jets at Denver pick them and
who would have guessed that before the season got started.
But we adjust as the games go on. At Empower Field,
(23:29):
a mile high, mostly cloudy, temperatures in the sixties. The Jets.
You look at all the trends for the Jets, they're
all terrible because the Jets have been terrible and you
can't play it by the trends. The Jets, for example,
one in nine their last ten on the road against
the a f C. West, But Robert Sala five and
(23:50):
two against the spread with him his coach last seven
against the spread, and the Jets, even with Jack Wilson
doing really nothing six and one against the spread Denver,
the Broncos just two and eight. As a favorite, man
is that bad? Man? Is that bad? And I'm gonna
take the j E. T S Jets Jets just in
(24:12):
this game. And I'll tell you why I can't believe
what I'm saying. This New York is the more fundamentally
sound team. It just is. They're the younger team and
they're more fundamentally sound. Russell Wilson played one good quarter
on the Monday night game against the Chargers and then
vanished the rest of the game. It's kind of coasting along.
Denver is a poorly coach team in every phase. They
(24:33):
are a penalty and turnover machine, which is normally dead
on arrival if you play like that. Just to back
up my point, the Broncos lead the NFL with twelve
false start penalties on offense. That means twelve times a
professional football team has been unable to snap the ball
(24:55):
without one of their own players jumping off sides and
uh in two of those per game. The offensive holding calls,
the Broncos are second in that category. Those are drive killers.
The turnovers have been very high, so if you want
to take a swipe on this one. This is another
(25:16):
one of those games you're like, well, the Jets, you
just you got to get through the neurosis of the
Jets and you can't bet on the Jets. And I
was that way with Joe Flacco earlier this year and
all that. But we are seeing a come to power
situation for the Jets, and this is another one of
those hurdles. Is this gonna be the same old Jets?
Are they gonna return back to the way they had been?
(25:38):
And or do they win this game and go to
five and two? And now you're like, we got something,
we got some they get their house in order, I
say they do. I'll take the Jets thirty and the
Broncoes twenty three. Denver's gonna be two and five at
the end of this game, Heady, cheating off your paper again,
(25:59):
going with j E t s suck, sucks, suck. All right,
well we we agree on that. A lot of agreement
here on Benny versus Penny, as the penny is hot
on my trail, clearly because I've been kicking some ass here.
Let's get to it. Next up Houston one, three and
one at Las Vegas Danny G's Raiders one in four.
(26:19):
It's on CBS with Greg Gumbel and Adam march Aletta.
The Raiders opened up a six and a half point favorite.
There a seven point favorite in this game, Sonny and seven.
He agrees that kick off at Allegiance Stadium and Vegas
much like the last we were talking about a couple
(26:39):
of games ago. The I think it was Denver last
game there two and eight against the spread as a favorite.
That is the same record Vegas as their last ten
games is a favorite. The Raiders are two and eight
and Vegas at home against teams that have a losing
record are twenty three games under five hundred if you
go back the last I believe the last sixty five
(27:02):
games they've been in that situation, so that goes back
a long time. But the trend is the trend. It
has held up. Houston, though, has the NFL second worst defense.
They're allowing four d twelve yards per game, having a
whale of a time as they run after offensive players,
running past them wherever they play, and they're going all
the all the oxen free. Please help us, but I
(27:24):
am going to take the Texas in this game. Despite
all that, this is gonna be a battle of the
running backs. Damon Pierce the rookie, he's our rookie has
been splendid for Houston, and Josh Jacobs had that dominant
game against the Chiefs, and I also expect a lot
of flags in this game. However, the officiating crew, John
(27:45):
Hussey's crew, they've called the fewest penalties, so maybe there
will not be a ton of penalty this game. Houston, though,
check this out. They have not lost by more than
ten points with Davis Mills all season, so they've get
close to the vest and when they've been lopsided games,
they've come back and gotten back into the games. They
(28:06):
lose the statueet pretty much every week the Texans lose
the the statute, they get pummeled, but they are able
to come back and and hang around the points. Bread.
I think they'll do it again here and this is
a letdown game. The Raiders had a big, big game
of the last time out against Kansas City, and now
(28:27):
they are they're back at after the bye week and
all that. The Raiders twenty four Texans twenty Houston the
right side of the wager and the penny also going
with the Texans. Alright, another agreement here, as you're getting
(28:50):
educated on Benny versus the penny. If you haven't clicked
that like button, please help us out tell a friend, right,
we love that word of mouth advertising. We have no
advertising budget, would that be correct, Danny G. There is
no budget for advertising. There's no billboards, there's no television commercials.
We occasionally get a promo. That's about it, right. Yeah,
I was gonna say, unless you count the promos, it
(29:13):
is mouth to mouth, word to word, ear to ear,
but we can't match the promos. The other show you
work on, Covino and Rich. Those guys now they are
getting all the promos and they're all over the place.
But good for them, all right. Next up cansa City,
Thank you Kindly at four and two at San Francisco,
(29:34):
three and three. It's in Santa Clara. It's on Fox.
As the Niners rough around the edges last week, Kevin
Burke carton Greg Olsen the A team, So your cup
runneth over if you want the A team to be
at this game, they are there. And the Chiefs opened
up a two and a half point favorite, a two
and a half point favorite in this actually opened up
(29:56):
at one point favorite, the two and a half point
favorite now and most of them about a little over.
That is on the side of Kansas City at Levi's Stadium,
temperatures in the sixties at kickoff of this game. Some
of the numbers, some of the trends. Kansas City, in
the NFL's number one scoring offense, are averaging twenty nine
(30:17):
eight points per game, but they have not been great
with Patrick Mahomes last seven games. From a gambling standpoint,
the Chiefs are just two and five against the spread.
Andy Reid over his career going back to Philly, has
done great against the forty Niners. I'm gonna take the Niners.
Niners are eleven and four their last fifteen with Garoppolo,
(30:39):
but I like the forty years. I'm not disrespecting Kansas City.
They're on a different level than everyone else these days.
But they also lost to the Colts. It's them in
the Bills. They're on an island, the Bills and the Chiefs,
maybe the Eagles, but those two mainly are the top
two teams and this is a letdown spot. The Chiefs
coming off in emotion in a loss at home the
(31:01):
Buffalo as It went all the way to the bitter
end there, and that was a showcase game, big game
for them. They lose it. Now they're gonna come back.
They play another good team, but not a great team,
the forty Niners, who have a top defense. They're coming
off a loss against Atlanta. More importantly, though, they're getting
(31:21):
guys back. Left tackle Trent Williams, defensive end Nick Bosa,
and also Jimmy Ward. Those guys. They believe Bosa will
be back, Williams and Ward maybe back. They returned to
practice this week. They may play, they may not at
the time we're doing this. So if they don't play,
I'll probably need professional help because I'll be in such
a bad mood. I took the forty Niners, but I'm
(31:43):
assuming that at least two of those three will be
able to play. So I'm going out on a limb.
Here surprise, surprise, surprise, forty Niners Chiefs twenty three, the
Niners the right side, and Benny, you see the penny
(32:06):
right here, trying to come up off of that mark
by copying you again, man, going with the Forts, all right,
I don't understand what's going on with the penny. And
next up Seattle, Seattle, Seattle, where they cursed like a
sailor because they're all you know the other water. Seattle
three and three at the l A Chargers of Inglewood.
(32:28):
It's on Fox. It's on Fox. Kevin Coogler and Mark
Sanchez have the call. Now. The Chargers opened up a
seven and a half point favorite, their favored by six
and over. The money is on the side of a Seattle,
but that one at so far stadium temperature right about
(32:51):
seventy degrees that kick off. Seattle eight into their last
ten against against the spread versus the a f C,
and the Seahawks are six and three against the spread
with Geno Smith starting going back to last year. Chargers
also have a bye week coming up there two and
eight their last ten against the spread going into a bye.
(33:14):
I'm gonna take the Seahawks here, I'm gonna take Seattle.
I'm with the public, which is a bad sign the
Chargers and Seahawks. They can trade mistakes in this game.
Seattle leads the NFL with eleven offensive holding penalties. L
A is tied for second with the Broncos with ten.
Geno Smith not a fan, but he has been able
to put some points on the board most weeks. Last
(33:36):
week was not one of those weeks. Against Arizona was
it was really ugly. It was really ugly. Both teams
were lost at see the Chargers, they'll have their own issues.
You saw that game against Denver. Denver's got a pretty
decent defense, but a lot of underneath passes. And my
theory on the Chargers is they're trying to overcompensate because
(33:59):
of offensive line injuries and they're attempting just to dink
and dunk it, keep it underneath with Justin Herbert Kubert.
So they don't they don't want to mess this up,
and as a result, they have these long ten, twelve,
fourteen play drives, but they often fizzle when they get
down in the red zone because you know, they're softest
(34:21):
butter in that particular area. So I'm gonna take the
Chargers to win, but the Seahawks to keep it close
within that six point line. Chargers six and the Seahawks three.
The final, and the penny is going with your boy
Gino taking the Seahawks. Oh my god, again, have we
(34:45):
disagreed on any games here? Yeah? All right, it's been
a couple of disagreements, but not many, No more than that. Yeah,
all right, Well that's good to see. The penny cannot
catch me if we agree on all the games. The
only way the penny can catch me is to disagree
on these games. Bad job by the penny. I'll have
to have a meeting with the penny. Uh No offense taken,
(35:07):
of course. Next up, Sunday Night Football, The Light of
Sunday Night, Pittsburgh two and four at Miami, Miami Miami
at three and three. It's on and b CEE, Mike
Tarico and Chris Collinsworth. They have the call. The Dolphins
opened a six point favorite. They are favored by seven,
(35:30):
and we will turn over every stone. As we talked
about this game hard Rock Stadium, the site has mentioned
there some of the numbers here. Pittsburgh just two and
five against the spread, their last seven on the road
with Mike Tomlin. But Miami they are oh in seven
their last seven games in October and Miami five and
(35:51):
two though against Mike Tomlin. The last seven matchups with
different coaches and whatnot over the years. So I'm gonna
cover my eyes in this and I'm gonna take the Steelers,
and I'll tell you why can he pick it. He
remains in the concussion protocol. He's expected to start this game.
He practiced on Wednesday at a full practice. Pittsburgh backups
(36:11):
though that the starters and the secondary guys who were out.
The backups made some plays against Tom Brady and Tampa Bay.
I want to see those guys playing again this week.
And the Dolphins are coming back with to a tongue
of ioloa and so they're like, oh, hey, you know
two is back. You know it's gonna be great and
all that. Well, he hasn't played since Week four against
the Bengals. He's had that concussion. He said he passed out,
(36:34):
he was unconscious when he was taking off the field
and all that. The Dolphins have cooled up. I don't
know what version you're gonna get of TOA and he
was he was okay at the beginning of the year,
But I don't know how you're you're gonna you're gonna
bet on that. That's a tough, tough hill to die
on with TOA considering how much time he's missed and
all that. It's also the make of fitzpatrick revenge game.
(36:57):
The former Dolphin who now is with Pittsburgh. It's been
with Pittsburgh for a couple of years there so Miami
has only one game where they won by more than seven.
So they even when they play well, they normally keep
it close to the vest. Pittsburgh's coming off their Super
Bowl win over Tom Brady, but I say they will
(37:18):
still have some fight. Mike Tomlin's team is going to
scratch and claw. They didn't spread themselves too thin against
Tampa Bay. Dolphins will win, but the Steelers will win
the bet. So I'm on the side of Pittsburgh. Dolphins
twenty three and the Steelers seventeen. The final. Yeah, as
(37:39):
the penny landed on heads, that means also going with
the Dolphins, all right, so the penny tablement, So no,
I'm taking the Steelers. Bustle points that day. I am
on the side of the Steelers because the line on
this game is that Dolphins are favored by seven. I
believe that Dolphins will win. But if you bet on
the Steelers, you've got a little wiggle room. You got
(38:00):
even letting the penny disagrees, it's super close. Yes, yes,
so there is disagreement. Right, we got one game left,
one game to go. We're gonna hit the ugly stick
on this game. A mismatch of epic proportions Chicago two
and four as they are on the Suck Train and
New England three and three. It's on ABC with Joe
(38:23):
Buck and Troy Aikman. The Patriots opened up a six
point favorite. They are all the way up to a
nine point favorite in this game. A nine point favorite,
and most people think this is a free money game
just betting on the Patriots. Light rain temperatures in the
fifties around kickoff at Gillette Stadium. Some of the numbers here.
The Bears five and ten their last fifteen with Justin
(38:47):
Field starting Chicago this year just two and four against
the spread with Matt ever Flews as the coach, and
I'm gonna take the Bears. This is another one of
those games where I want to I want to puke
in my mouth that I'm taking the Bears, but I'm
doing it. The main reason is, while I like the
Bailey's Appy story and his experiencers Appy, I don't trust
(39:10):
him as this big a favorite. It is a big mismatch,
but there's no way I feel comfortable laying over a
touchdown with Zappy Chicago's defense has played better than I expected.
They pressure the quarterback a fair amount, which normally leads
to mistakes. Now the Bears are going to need some
of those because Justin Fields is a white hot dumpster fire.
(39:36):
It is does that he does not hold water to
anybody in the NFL. And the Bears might move the
ball a little bit in the middle of the field,
but they get into the red zone. I don't even
know if they're gonna get in the red zone in
this game. That's how big a mismatch this isn't Bill
Belichick licking his chops at going against Justin Fields that
(39:56):
he will smother him. And Fields is an inconsistent thrower.
He's gonna have butterflies in his stomach against the Patriots,
and it's gonna be a big old storm in a
teacup in this game. That's it. That being said, I
maintained my position, though, I'm gonna take Chicago because getting
over a touchdown and I just don't think the Patriots
(40:17):
are gonna score that much. The Bears should be able
to get a special team's driven score and another short field.
So I'm gonna take the Patriots to win the game.
But the Bears to win the money Patriots twenty four
and the Bears seventeen the final and I feel like
(40:42):
the penny screwing with you Chicago. Oh my god, Oh hell,
Bill Miller, what is up with that? We're trying to
rock and roll here, We're ready to rock and roll,
and we got that, we got agreement up the WAZI. Well,
that's the way it works. That's the beauty of the penny, right, Danny,
You never know which direction the pennies gonna go. You
got a fifty fifty chance in every game. It just
(41:03):
so happens the penny is shadowing me that I am
the inspiration for the pen. Wrong. Anyway, we gotta get
out of here. We got a full weekend of podcast,
The Regular Fair The Life and Times of Mallard and
Danny g on a Saturday, so many happy returns, many
happy returns to the podcast. Got the mailbag on Sunday,
(41:25):
and hopefully we will not bite the dust. Have a
wonderful rest of your day, whatever date is. Maybe it's Friday,
maybe it's Saturday, maybe it's Sunday. People listen all those days,
depending on your schedule, and good luck, don't bet too much.
Pick your spots, and may all your bets be winning ones.
We'll talk to you next time, See you tomorrow later.
(41:46):
Skaterfliction
Ka boom. If you thought four hours a day, minutes
a week was enough, I think again. He's the last
remnants of the old republic, a sole fashion of fairness.
He treats crackheads in the ghetto cutter the same as
the rich pill poppers in the penthouse, to clearinghouse of
hot takes. Break free for something special. The Fifth Hour
(00:23):
with Ben Maller starts right now, nine in the air everywhere.
Welcome into a special bonus edition of the Fifth Hour
with Ben Maller and Danny G. Radio. As we go
at it, Mono amano, belly to belly, face to face
(00:48):
the Penny. It is week seven of Benny Versus the Penny,
and we are back at it here to break down
every NFL game against the spread. We provide sports handicapping
for the regular guy. I have done this for a
long time, looking at all the numbers and all of
(01:10):
the information available, and I try to pick winners. Here
the coin, the Penny an indamant object also picking winners,
and so we'll see who does better. And the home
team heads, the road team tales and Danny G is
the spokesman for the Penny, and Danny is right there. Hello, Danny, Yo,
(01:33):
what's up? This is gonna be an interesting NFL Sunday,
because based on your Halloween party, we might be waking
up semi sluggishly on Sunday morning, bunch of hooker. I
might be waking up actually for the Sunday night game,
which is the Dolphins and the Steelers. That might be
the only game I actually watch this this weekend. But
(01:56):
the the teams that aren't playing, the Buffalo Bills not playing,
that's the top team in football by most accounts. The Eagles,
who are the only unbeaten team. They're not playing, the
Rams and the Vikings. So four of the top teams
in the NFL, well three of the top teams in
the Rams are not participating in week number seven. But
(02:17):
before we get to all the games here in week
seven on Sunday and Monday, welcome players, You're welcome. It's
time now, Betty versus the penny. We must look back
(02:37):
at what happened back in Week six. Got off to
a pretty good start, Danny. In Week six, I was
really doing well in the early television window, and then
they had to play the late television window and that
that did not go so well for me. But overall,
another winning week, only a couple of games over five.
There were fourteen games in the NFL last weekend. If
(03:00):
you're listening along, you know that I went eight and
six against the spread, a five seventy one winning percentage.
The penny went nine and five. So the penny beat
me head to head, the penny winning in a six
forty three clip last week's so good job by the penny.
And overall. Now this is where it gets really wild, Danny,
(03:24):
when you go overall. So my record against the spread,
I have won fifty three and lost thirty eight, tied three.
So that's a five eighty two winning percentage, which is
in the in the black. It's in the black because
to win money as a sports better you have to
practice money management. But you have to win more than
(03:47):
fifty two point four percent of your bets. That's the
magic number, fifty two percent. You have to win more
than that to win money. So we're five eighty two.
That's good the penny. I did the math on this, Danny,
and I had to do it again and again and
again and again and again and again. I kept going back.
I said, this can't be right. There's no way this
(04:07):
can be right. Apparently it's right. So there have been
so many, so many times, so many games we've done here,
we've done week six. Now heading into week seven, there
are ninety four NFL games that we have had on
Benny versus the Penny. The penny is forty sixty six
(04:28):
and two. Damn, how is that. I know it's possible
because it's a fifty fifty shot, but I don't recall
that ever being the case this far into the season
where it's exactly five. That's pretty wild. That's pretty wild.
So you might want to have a word to the
penny there. I don't know what's going on there, but man,
(04:49):
but well, I get to it. Here we go. Let's
get to the games on the card here in week seven,
we'll start with the early television window. This is the
big game on CBS, Jim Nance and Tony Romo. It's
two NFC teams, but it is a CBS game. Detroit
one and four at Dallas four and two. The Cowboys
opened up a six and a half point favorite, their
(05:09):
favorite by seven and a half. In this game. Over
eight percent of the money on the Cowboys at a
T and T Stadium. Some of the numbers here. The
Cowboys their last ten games against the spread at home
against the NFC North, there just two and eight against
that division. At home the Lions, they'll have the NFL's
worst defense. They're allowing thirty four points per game and
(05:33):
four in or twenty eight yards per game. Detroit, though,
has been good for gamblers coming off of bye over
the years. Their nine and one against the spread their
last ten coming off of by so that's ten years,
and the last seven on the road after a by
there's seven and oh against the spread. I'm taking the
Lions in this game. Detroit is rested, They're coming off
(05:55):
a bye week. Dallas is coming off a hard fought
loss to a division rival, the Eagles, key divisional game.
In that matchup, Dak Prescott's coming back from a finger
finger injury. But will he be rusted? Are the Cowboys
making a mistake bringing him back here and jumping the
gun because you know, play against the Lions, soft start here,
(06:18):
easy game, you would assume blah blah blah blah blah.
But coming off of by the Lions getting some guys
back from injury, Jared Goff and the offense should be
able to put some points up even with that Cowboy
defense intimidating Michael Parsons and whatnot. But I love getting
this many points. You're getting over a touchdown a team
coming off of bye. I am taking the Lions to
(06:41):
cover the spread. Cowboys twenty six, Lions the right side
of the bed at twenty and the Penny picks right
off the bat at disagreement. Penny going with Dak and
the Cowboys. All right, So disagreement on that game. We're
off to a flying start. Next up, the g I
A and T S Giants at five and one against
(07:05):
Jacksonville two and four. It's on Fox with Chris Myers
and Mark lay Rith, and the Jags opened up a
three point favorite in this game. They are still favored
by three. This is a shocking point spread too many,
considering the difference in records here between Jacksonville and the
Giants at least seventy five degrees. That kick off at
T I A A Bank Stadium in Jacksonville. Some of
(07:27):
the numbers here. The Giants are five and one against
the spread this year, so there're five on one overall,
but also against the spread with Brian Dable and with
Daniel Jones going back even a little further. The last
ten games, they are ten and two against the spread,
with Jones starting in the last fifteen on the road,
(07:48):
the Giants are ten and five against the spread. Jacksonville
as a favorite, they have been a terrible play. If
you look at the numbers here two and eight against
the spread their last ten as a favorite. That tells
what has happened, not what's going to happen. But I'm
taking the Giants here. This might be a sucker play.
The money is about even on this. Sequon Barkley should
(08:08):
slice up the Jacksonville linebacking Courts Jacksonville. They have put
a lot of yards up between the twenties, and that's
one of the reasons I think this line is the
way it is. They've struggled, though, to consistently score touchdowns,
and they've also made a lot of mental mistakes to
lose games here, including last week against the Colts, where
they'll come out, they'll have a two touchdown lead early
(08:30):
and then play sloppy football. I don't see that stopping here.
The Giants ranked ninth in pressure rates, so they should
be able to blitz Trevor Lawrence up the wazoo, which
is normally a recipe for the quarterback to make mistakes,
and this, this line scares me because it looks like
it's completely wrong. And I'm on the side of the
(08:52):
public in many respects, but I think the Giants are
just the right side here. They should win this game. Now,
maybe they won't, maybe they'll come out flat. No, they'll
lose this game by ten points. But I am taking
the Giants twenty four and the Jags twenty the final,
(09:12):
and the penny is with you in the public on this.
Going with the Giants, alright, So agreement on that. Next up,
Indianapolis three two on one at Tennessee three and two.
It's on CBS with Andrew Catalan and James Lofton on
the call. The Titans opened up a one and a
half point favorite. They're favored by two and a half
in this game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Are getting
(09:35):
a new stadium. They just announced it this week, so
in a few years we'll have another Dome stadium in
the NFL. Titans are six and one their last seven
games with Ryan Tannehill against the Colts, five and two
with Mike Rabel against the Colts and Frank Right obviously
the other side of that, he's two and five against
(09:56):
the Tennessee Titans. As the coach in Indie, I'm taking
the tight and I'll tell you why. Tennessee's offense. They
are stuck in mud here. But they have regularly outgunned
the regularly are regular outgun is what I'm trying to
stay here. If the guy could talk, that would help. Uh.
But there they've been very opportunistic on defense and special
teams and they've really been the vultures, which is more
(10:17):
important than raw yardage. It's getting turnovers, big special teams plays.
And Indianapolis is tied for second with five pass interference
penalties against the second here, So you look at that. Also,
this referee for this game, Ron Torbert. You know, I'm
I'm going deep in the weeds when I'm looking at
the referee match up. But this Ron Torbert, the referee,
(10:41):
M yeah, exactly. His crew, he's no ed hockey. His
crew has called the most defensive pass interference calls in
the Leake. So what does that mean? That means that
there should be some opportunities there for the Titans to
gain yardage on pass interference calls. The Colts have made
a lot of those mistakes and Matt Ryan is a
(11:02):
turnover waiting to happen here. So it's really Derrick Henry,
a little bit of Ryan Tannehill, and I'm gonna take
the small favorite the Tennessee Titans to win this game
twenty seven to twenty three. Titans over the Colts will
be your final. And the Penny says, don't give up
(11:25):
on Matt Ryan yet, going with Indie no no. I
believe Matt Ryan and the horse shoes should go to
the glue factory. Next up Atlanta three and three at Cincinnati,
the End of the Rainbow, also three and three. It's
on Fox with Brianden Godden, Brandon Godden and Robert Smith.
They have to call. The Bengals opened up a six
(11:49):
and a half point favorite, and they are a six
point favorite in this game in sixty percent of the
money on the side of Cincinnati. If you look at
the handle here at eight Corps Stadium formerly Paul Brown Stadium,
but pay Corps Stadium. There sunny and seventy two in Cincinnati.
Atlanta was supposed to be a pile of ship this season.
(12:11):
They have not been that. They are five hundred and
the Falcons are the only team left that is perfect
against the spread. There's six and oh against the spreads,
so that either means they're due to lose or this
is just their year to have the amazing record against
the number eight into their last ten with Arthur Smith
(12:32):
coaching and Cincinnati, if you look at the trends here
two and five their last seven at home in October,
and three and seven their last ten at home in
non conference games. I am gonna take the Falcons, and
I might have to rinse my mouth out, but I'm
gonna take the Falcons here Cincinnati. I'll tell you why.
Cincinnati is much more talented in pretty much every offensive
(12:57):
category than Atlanta, and they are lacking, though the Falcons,
the wow factor. But they've been able to be pesky
and opportunistic. They've fallen behind in games like, for example,
the Rams game, and then they snuck in backdoor cover.
They've done that a couple of times. But the Dirty
Birds they don't have any pass rush, which scares me.
(13:17):
So that should give Joe Burrow plenty of opportunity to
chuck it down field. But I'm gonna ride with the
boys from Georgia getting almost a touchdown against what has
been a Cincinnati team that has underachieved. They had to
come back to beat the Saints last week. They're still
missing something there there. They haven't been able to figure
it out what's wrong with the ben Gals, but they
(13:41):
just haven't been the same dominant team to this point.
So I'm gonna take the Falcons twenty four and the
Bengals twenty three the final and the penny also living
on the edge, Going with the Falcons, Going with the
dirty birds, all right? Next up for US Cleveland at
(14:04):
two and four at Baltimore three and three. It's on
CBS with Kevin Harlan and Trent Green as they go
off the beaten path. The Ravens opened up a six
point favorite. They are favored by seven in this game. Yes,
the same Baltimore team that lost last week to the
(14:24):
Giants is a seven point favorite this week and over
eight percent of the money if you look at the
handle is on the side of Baltimore. At M and
T Bank Stadium, temperatures in the mid sixties at kickoff.
Will we see a cosmetic change to the Ravens offense
which is all of a sudden gone the wrong way.
Will it matter in this game? The Browns are nine
(14:46):
and nineteen against John Harbaugh coached Raven teams and Kevin Stefanski,
and the Brownies are six and nine the last fifteen
games they've gone. Lamar Jackson actually has a losing record
against the spread and at home, So I'm gonna take
the Browns here. This is an aesthetically non pleasing game.
(15:08):
You'd rather watch a stick of dyna might blow up
than watch this game. But the Browns have. They've lost
three straight. They were blown out by the Patriots and
Bailey Zappy last week. Things look bleak. However, You're never
as bad as people say you are. You're never as
good as people say you are. This is a bounce
back spot for Cleveland divisional game. They're close to getting
(15:29):
Denzel Award back. He had a concussion. Jadeveon Clowne, He's
got all kinds of injuries, your knee, your ankle, your elbow,
and Miles Garrett, still dealing with the after effect of
the car accident, is supposed to come back. The issue
here is all those miss tackles. The Browns have not
been prim and proper on defense. They've been in position
(15:50):
to make tackles. It's the most frustrating thing. I see
it all the time with the Rams, and so the
Browns are one of these teams where they get guys
in position to make a play and then the it's
an ankle tackle or the receiver, the running back runs
through the tackle. It's embarrassed. And Lamar Jackson on the
other side, he has regressed the last couple weeks. It's
(16:11):
you're talking about a divisional game. You're getting over a
touchdown or a touchdown, in this case a touchdown. So
I'm gonna take the Browns. I think that's too many points.
Ravens twenty six, Browns twenty on a razor's edge. We
get to win with the Browns. The penny is a
big duvern A fan. Going with the Ravens. The Penny's
(16:34):
forgotten more than I'll ever know. All Right, next up
Green Bay. Actually know we're not doing great, but doing
Tampa Bay. I got my Bays mixed up. Tampa Bay
three and three at Carolina at one in five. It's
on Fox. You better watched. It's the only reason to watch.
Kenny Albert and Jonathan Vilma. The Bucks opened up a
(16:55):
nine and a half point favorite, as they are said
to be on life support after losing the Steelers last week.
The Bucks are in eleven point favorite right now, levin
point favorite for that Tampa Bay team. God bless America
Bank of America Stadium site. Most of the money is
on Tampa. Why would anyone bet on Carolina? They're begging
you to bet on Carolina. They have died like a
(17:17):
dog the Panthers here of late. The Bucks, though their
last fifteen games before playing Atlanta, which is who they
have next week. They're two and thirteen and Tampa two
and four this season against the spread under Todd Bowls,
while Carolina, on the other side, they're on pins and
needles right now, one in nine their last ten home
(17:39):
games and four and eleven their last fifteen as an underdog.
So I am going to take the Panthers in this game.
This is one of those cover your eyes games. This
is where you have to take the value and you
need a couple of things to go right for this
to come full circle. But rather than me, Wax and Wayne,
let's get to the point. It's a peak both special
(18:00):
for the Bucks. They're they're coming off a loss to
the Steelers. They they played a they're playing a morbid
Panthers team this this coming week here on Sunday, and
they have, I believe, a Thursday night game next week.
So Tom Brady looks a little bit off and we're
(18:21):
not sure what that is. Is it age, is it
the fact he's going through a bad marriage. He's disheveled,
and we're not gonna bet on Tom Brady the way
things are going right now. And the Buccaneers really haven't
blown anyone out in a while. They had big leads
in games and gave them up. They still haven't played
a full game. They're living a charmed life despite that,
(18:44):
because they still won three games. They've also lost three.
Philip Walker, who sucks, is going to start, and that's
not good. Jacob Eason is also there, and that's like
the blind leading the blind. So you're not gonna get
much offense here. That's not gonna go so well. But
(19:04):
but you've got other ways to scored. Caroline is gonna
need interception or fumble, special teams, key turnover late in
a half, right before you know halftime. The Bucks turn
the ball over inside their own territory, so it's a
short field. Those kind of things have to go right.
And in Carolina's defense, which has been uh regressing, shall
(19:27):
we say, has to be able to slow down the run.
Otherwise it's gonna be the same old, same old. They'll
lose this game forty to ten, but I say, no
divisional game. You're getting over ten points. Buccaneers win the game,
but they don't win the bet Bucks twenty three Panthers thirteen,
as Carolina pern like a kitten, all right, and the
Penny picks. Penny says, this is the week Brady is
(19:53):
gonna bust out going with the Bucks. He might bust out,
but he's gonna be busting out of his marriage is
what will be busting out of there. That's that. But
I'm all right. Next up, we are going to get
to Green Bay, Green Bay three and three at Washington.
It's on Fox. You better watch. Adam Amin and Darryl
moose Johnson have the call. And I'm trying to rack
my brain on how the hell this line is only
(20:14):
five points. This is one of those lines that makes
no sense. It's so obvious. It jumps off whatever electronic
device you're looking at when you look at the point
spreads the money on this game is relatively even at
FedEx Field, sunny and sixty five degrees at kickoff Green Bay.
(20:35):
They are seven games above on the road against the
spread with Matt la Fleur and Aaron Rodgers. Is last
twenty five road games going back a few years has
been fifteen and ten against the spread. I'm gonna take Washington.
This is another one of those. As a gambler, you
don't want to be on the side of the glamour team,
(20:57):
in this case Green Bay. You want to be on
the side of the gritty team. Washington's a hot mess.
Carson Wentz has a finger injury. He's out. Taylor Heineke
set to take over here and they're gonna mix in
some other options at quarterback. But that's really a lateral move.
Carson Wentz had been bad to the bone. He had
curled up and got into the fetal position several times.
So it's not like this is a huge downgrade if anything.
(21:19):
As I said, it's a lateral move. It's a side step,
couple of steps, and Washington's on thin ice whoever plays quarterback,
so it's not like this is gonna make that big
a difference Carson Wentz, as I said, not good dog
with fleas uh. The Packers, though, have their own issues,
all right, that's my main sticking point here. Green Bay
(21:40):
does not have the wow factor. They lost to the
Jets at home last week, the Giants they lost to
earlier this year. These these are bad losses. It's an
offensive malaise for green Bay. We're not walking down the
memory lane. Back when the Packers were would play a
game like this and they would win thirty five to fourteen.
(22:02):
It's not that same vibe right now. In fact, Green
Bay has had such a disappearing act. I think there's
other stuff going on. Aaron Rodgers will likely scuffle to
get separation from the Commandos, and I wouldn't be shocked
if this is anyone's game in the fourth quarter. Therefore,
I'm gonna take Washington. Call me crazy, just call me.
(22:23):
I believe they'll be blood in the streets as Washington
pulls the upset. Washington twenty Green Bay seventeen. The final
and the Penny picks and the penny is going with
the Commandos, shocking the penny, stealing my work there, bat
job by the penny. All right. Next up, we'll get
(22:44):
to the late television window. The j e t s Jets, Jets,
Jets sucks, sucks, sucked. No more checking those receipts. I
guess the fairy Godmother has helped the Jets out there
four and two Denver, two and four. It's on CBS
with Iron Eagle and Charles David's friend of the podcast.
We had Charles on not that long ago, before the
(23:06):
football season got going. In this game opened Broncos by
three and a half. It has gone all the way
down to a pick them, Sodom and Gomorrah. It's raining sulfur,
A pick them the Jets at Denver pick them and
who would have guessed that before the season got started.
But we adjust as the games go on. At Empower Field,
(23:29):
a mile high, mostly cloudy, temperatures in the sixties. The Jets.
You look at all the trends for the Jets, they're
all terrible because the Jets have been terrible and you
can't play it by the trends. The Jets, for example,
one in nine their last ten on the road against
the a f C. West, But Robert Sala five and
(23:50):
two against the spread with him his coach last seven
against the spread, and the Jets, even with Jack Wilson
doing really nothing six and one against the spread Denver,
the Broncos just two and eight. As a favorite, man
is that bad? Man? Is that bad? And I'm gonna
take the j E. T S Jets Jets just in
(24:12):
this game. And I'll tell you why I can't believe
what I'm saying. This New York is the more fundamentally
sound team. It just is. They're the younger team and
they're more fundamentally sound. Russell Wilson played one good quarter
on the Monday night game against the Chargers and then
vanished the rest of the game. It's kind of coasting along.
Denver is a poorly coach team in every phase. They
(24:33):
are a penalty and turnover machine, which is normally dead
on arrival if you play like that. Just to back
up my point, the Broncos lead the NFL with twelve
false start penalties on offense. That means twelve times a
professional football team has been unable to snap the ball
(24:55):
without one of their own players jumping off sides and
uh in two of those per game. The offensive holding calls,
the Broncos are second in that category. Those are drive killers.
The turnovers have been very high, so if you want
to take a swipe on this one. This is another
(25:16):
one of those games you're like, well, the Jets, you
just you got to get through the neurosis of the
Jets and you can't bet on the Jets. And I
was that way with Joe Flacco earlier this year and
all that. But we are seeing a come to power
situation for the Jets, and this is another one of
those hurdles. Is this gonna be the same old Jets?
Are they gonna return back to the way they had been?
(25:38):
And or do they win this game and go to
five and two? And now you're like, we got something,
we got some they get their house in order, I
say they do. I'll take the Jets thirty and the
Broncoes twenty three. Denver's gonna be two and five at
the end of this game, Heady, cheating off your paper again,
(25:59):
going with j E t s suck, sucks, suck. All right,
well we we agree on that. A lot of agreement
here on Benny versus Penny, as the penny is hot
on my trail, clearly because I've been kicking some ass here.
Let's get to it. Next up Houston one, three and
one at Las Vegas Danny G's Raiders one in four.
(26:19):
It's on CBS with Greg Gumbel and Adam march Aletta.
The Raiders opened up a six and a half point favorite.
There a seven point favorite in this game, Sonny and seven.
He agrees that kick off at Allegiance Stadium and Vegas
much like the last we were talking about a couple
(26:39):
of games ago. The I think it was Denver last
game there two and eight against the spread as a favorite.
That is the same record Vegas as their last ten
games is a favorite. The Raiders are two and eight
and Vegas at home against teams that have a losing
record are twenty three games under five hundred if you
go back the last I believe the last sixty five
(27:02):
games they've been in that situation, so that goes back
a long time. But the trend is the trend. It
has held up. Houston, though, has the NFL second worst defense.
They're allowing four d twelve yards per game, having a
whale of a time as they run after offensive players,
running past them wherever they play, and they're going all
the all the oxen free. Please help us, but I
(27:24):
am going to take the Texas in this game. Despite
all that, this is gonna be a battle of the
running backs. Damon Pierce the rookie, he's our rookie has
been splendid for Houston, and Josh Jacobs had that dominant
game against the Chiefs, and I also expect a lot
of flags in this game. However, the officiating crew, John
(27:45):
Hussey's crew, they've called the fewest penalties, so maybe there
will not be a ton of penalty this game. Houston, though,
check this out. They have not lost by more than
ten points with Davis Mills all season, so they've get
close to the vest and when they've been lopsided games,
they've come back and gotten back into the games. They
(28:06):
lose the statueet pretty much every week the Texans lose
the the statute, they get pummeled, but they are able
to come back and and hang around the points. Bread.
I think they'll do it again here and this is
a letdown game. The Raiders had a big, big game
of the last time out against Kansas City, and now
(28:27):
they are they're back at after the bye week and
all that. The Raiders twenty four Texans twenty Houston the
right side of the wager and the penny also going
with the Texans. Alright, another agreement here, as you're getting
(28:50):
educated on Benny versus the penny. If you haven't clicked
that like button, please help us out tell a friend, right,
we love that word of mouth advertising. We have no
advertising budget, would that be correct, Danny G. There is
no budget for advertising. There's no billboards, there's no television commercials.
We occasionally get a promo. That's about it, right. Yeah,
I was gonna say, unless you count the promos, it
(29:13):
is mouth to mouth, word to word, ear to ear,
but we can't match the promos. The other show you
work on, Covino and Rich. Those guys now they are
getting all the promos and they're all over the place.
But good for them, all right. Next up cansa City,
Thank you Kindly at four and two at San Francisco,
(29:34):
three and three. It's in Santa Clara. It's on Fox.
As the Niners rough around the edges last week, Kevin
Burke carton Greg Olsen the A team, So your cup
runneth over if you want the A team to be
at this game, they are there. And the Chiefs opened
up a two and a half point favorite, a two
and a half point favorite in this actually opened up
(29:56):
at one point favorite, the two and a half point
favorite now and most of them about a little over.
That is on the side of Kansas City at Levi's Stadium,
temperatures in the sixties at kickoff of this game. Some
of the numbers, some of the trends. Kansas City, in
the NFL's number one scoring offense, are averaging twenty nine
(30:17):
eight points per game, but they have not been great
with Patrick Mahomes last seven games. From a gambling standpoint,
the Chiefs are just two and five against the spread.
Andy Reid over his career going back to Philly, has
done great against the forty Niners. I'm gonna take the Niners.
Niners are eleven and four their last fifteen with Garoppolo,
(30:39):
but I like the forty years. I'm not disrespecting Kansas City.
They're on a different level than everyone else these days.
But they also lost to the Colts. It's them in
the Bills. They're on an island, the Bills and the Chiefs,
maybe the Eagles, but those two mainly are the top
two teams and this is a letdown spot. The Chiefs
coming off in emotion in a loss at home the
(31:01):
Buffalo as It went all the way to the bitter
end there, and that was a showcase game, big game
for them. They lose it. Now they're gonna come back.
They play another good team, but not a great team,
the forty Niners, who have a top defense. They're coming
off a loss against Atlanta. More importantly, though, they're getting
(31:21):
guys back. Left tackle Trent Williams, defensive end Nick Bosa,
and also Jimmy Ward. Those guys. They believe Bosa will
be back, Williams and Ward maybe back. They returned to
practice this week. They may play, they may not at
the time we're doing this. So if they don't play,
I'll probably need professional help because I'll be in such
a bad mood. I took the forty Niners, but I'm
(31:43):
assuming that at least two of those three will be
able to play. So I'm going out on a limb.
Here surprise, surprise, surprise, forty Niners Chiefs twenty three, the
Niners the right side, and Benny, you see the penny
(32:06):
right here, trying to come up off of that mark
by copying you again, man, going with the Forts, all right,
I don't understand what's going on with the penny. And
next up Seattle, Seattle, Seattle, where they cursed like a
sailor because they're all you know the other water. Seattle
three and three at the l A Chargers of Inglewood.
(32:28):
It's on Fox. It's on Fox. Kevin Coogler and Mark
Sanchez have the call. Now. The Chargers opened up a
seven and a half point favorite, their favored by six
and over. The money is on the side of a Seattle,
but that one at so far stadium temperature right about
(32:51):
seventy degrees that kick off. Seattle eight into their last
ten against against the spread versus the a f C,
and the Seahawks are six and three against the spread
with Geno Smith starting going back to last year. Chargers
also have a bye week coming up there two and
eight their last ten against the spread going into a bye.
(33:14):
I'm gonna take the Seahawks here, I'm gonna take Seattle.
I'm with the public, which is a bad sign the
Chargers and Seahawks. They can trade mistakes in this game.
Seattle leads the NFL with eleven offensive holding penalties. L
A is tied for second with the Broncos with ten.
Geno Smith not a fan, but he has been able
to put some points on the board most weeks. Last
(33:36):
week was not one of those weeks. Against Arizona was
it was really ugly. It was really ugly. Both teams
were lost at see the Chargers, they'll have their own issues.
You saw that game against Denver. Denver's got a pretty
decent defense, but a lot of underneath passes. And my
theory on the Chargers is they're trying to overcompensate because
(33:59):
of offensive line injuries and they're attempting just to dink
and dunk it, keep it underneath with Justin Herbert Kubert.
So they don't they don't want to mess this up,
and as a result, they have these long ten, twelve,
fourteen play drives, but they often fizzle when they get
down in the red zone because you know, they're softest
(34:21):
butter in that particular area. So I'm gonna take the
Chargers to win, but the Seahawks to keep it close
within that six point line. Chargers six and the Seahawks three.
The final, and the penny is going with your boy
Gino taking the Seahawks. Oh my god, again, have we
(34:45):
disagreed on any games here? Yeah? All right, it's been
a couple of disagreements, but not many, No more than that. Yeah,
all right, Well that's good to see. The penny cannot
catch me if we agree on all the games. The
only way the penny can catch me is to disagree
on these games. Bad job by the penny. I'll have
to have a meeting with the penny. Uh No offense taken,
(35:07):
of course. Next up, Sunday Night Football, The Light of
Sunday Night, Pittsburgh two and four at Miami, Miami Miami
at three and three. It's on and b CEE, Mike
Tarico and Chris Collinsworth. They have the call. The Dolphins
opened a six point favorite. They are favored by seven,
(35:30):
and we will turn over every stone. As we talked
about this game hard Rock Stadium, the site has mentioned
there some of the numbers here. Pittsburgh just two and
five against the spread, their last seven on the road
with Mike Tomlin. But Miami they are oh in seven
their last seven games in October and Miami five and
(35:51):
two though against Mike Tomlin. The last seven matchups with
different coaches and whatnot over the years. So I'm gonna
cover my eyes in this and I'm gonna take the Steelers,
and I'll tell you why can he pick it. He
remains in the concussion protocol. He's expected to start this game.
He practiced on Wednesday at a full practice. Pittsburgh backups
(36:11):
though that the starters and the secondary guys who were out.
The backups made some plays against Tom Brady and Tampa Bay.
I want to see those guys playing again this week.
And the Dolphins are coming back with to a tongue
of ioloa and so they're like, oh, hey, you know
two is back. You know it's gonna be great and
all that. Well, he hasn't played since Week four against
the Bengals. He's had that concussion. He said he passed out,
(36:34):
he was unconscious when he was taking off the field
and all that. The Dolphins have cooled up. I don't
know what version you're gonna get of TOA and he
was he was okay at the beginning of the year,
But I don't know how you're you're gonna you're gonna
bet on that. That's a tough, tough hill to die
on with TOA considering how much time he's missed and
all that. It's also the make of fitzpatrick revenge game.
(36:57):
The former Dolphin who now is with Pittsburgh. It's been
with Pittsburgh for a couple of years there so Miami
has only one game where they won by more than seven.
So they even when they play well, they normally keep
it close to the vest. Pittsburgh's coming off their Super
Bowl win over Tom Brady, but I say they will
(37:18):
still have some fight. Mike Tomlin's team is going to
scratch and claw. They didn't spread themselves too thin against
Tampa Bay. Dolphins will win, but the Steelers will win
the bet. So I'm on the side of Pittsburgh. Dolphins
twenty three and the Steelers seventeen. The final. Yeah, as
(37:39):
the penny landed on heads, that means also going with
the Dolphins, all right, so the penny tablement, So no,
I'm taking the Steelers. Bustle points that day. I am
on the side of the Steelers because the line on
this game is that Dolphins are favored by seven. I
believe that Dolphins will win. But if you bet on
the Steelers, you've got a little wiggle room. You got
(38:00):
even letting the penny disagrees, it's super close. Yes, yes,
so there is disagreement. Right, we got one game left,
one game to go. We're gonna hit the ugly stick
on this game. A mismatch of epic proportions Chicago two
and four as they are on the Suck Train and
New England three and three. It's on ABC with Joe
(38:23):
Buck and Troy Aikman. The Patriots opened up a six
point favorite. They are all the way up to a
nine point favorite in this game. A nine point favorite,
and most people think this is a free money game
just betting on the Patriots. Light rain temperatures in the
fifties around kickoff at Gillette Stadium. Some of the numbers here.
The Bears five and ten their last fifteen with Justin
(38:47):
Field starting Chicago this year just two and four against
the spread with Matt ever Flews as the coach, and
I'm gonna take the Bears. This is another one of
those games where I want to I want to puke
in my mouth that I'm taking the Bears, but I'm
doing it. The main reason is, while I like the
Bailey's Appy story and his experiencers Appy, I don't trust
(39:10):
him as this big a favorite. It is a big mismatch,
but there's no way I feel comfortable laying over a
touchdown with Zappy Chicago's defense has played better than I expected.
They pressure the quarterback a fair amount, which normally leads
to mistakes. Now the Bears are going to need some
of those because Justin Fields is a white hot dumpster fire.
(39:36):
It is does that he does not hold water to
anybody in the NFL. And the Bears might move the
ball a little bit in the middle of the field,
but they get into the red zone. I don't even
know if they're gonna get in the red zone in
this game. That's how big a mismatch this isn't Bill
Belichick licking his chops at going against Justin Fields that
(39:56):
he will smother him. And Fields is an inconsistent thrower.
He's gonna have butterflies in his stomach against the Patriots,
and it's gonna be a big old storm in a
teacup in this game. That's it. That being said, I
maintained my position, though, I'm gonna take Chicago because getting
over a touchdown and I just don't think the Patriots
(40:17):
are gonna score that much. The Bears should be able
to get a special team's driven score and another short field.
So I'm gonna take the Patriots to win the game.
But the Bears to win the money Patriots twenty four
and the Bears seventeen the final and I feel like
(40:42):
the penny screwing with you Chicago. Oh my god, Oh hell,
Bill Miller, what is up with that? We're trying to
rock and roll here, We're ready to rock and roll,
and we got that, we got agreement up the WAZI. Well,
that's the way it works. That's the beauty of the penny, right, Danny,
You never know which direction the pennies gonna go. You
got a fifty fifty chance in every game. It just
(41:03):
so happens the penny is shadowing me that I am
the inspiration for the pen. Wrong. Anyway, we gotta get
out of here. We got a full weekend of podcast,
The Regular Fair The Life and Times of Mallard and
Danny g on a Saturday, so many happy returns, many
happy returns to the podcast. Got the mailbag on Sunday,
(41:25):
and hopefully we will not bite the dust. Have a
wonderful rest of your day, whatever date is. Maybe it's Friday,
maybe it's Saturday, maybe it's Sunday. People listen all those days,
depending on your schedule, and good luck, don't bet too much.
Pick your spots, and may all your bets be winning ones.
We'll talk to you next time, See you tomorrow later.
(41:46):
Skaterfliction
Host
Ben Maller
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