October 11, 2019 • 56 mins
Tailing Ben's start, the Penny dominated Week 5 and she looks to do more damage in Week 6. It's a bad week for matchups with 0-5 Washington taking on 0-4 Miami but nevertheless, there's still money to be made. Stick with the guys for a new week of action.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome. Players, You're welcome. It's time now penny the penny.
We know it is dear to your heart, but it
is now week six in the NFL, and we have
all your Sunday and Monday NFL handicapping information. It is
(00:24):
the fifth Hour with Ben Maller and David Gascon. But
this is our hard oh gambling podcast. You have come
to the right place if you're looking for some knowledge
on these games. The way this works, all right, let
me tell you something. The way we do this, okay,
I will give you my opinion on all these games.
You should not bet on every one of these games
(00:45):
the way I would like you to consume this podcast.
If you're a gambler, all right, do your own homework.
But if your research and my research lines up, then
that is food for thought. And I believe you should
go forward with a wager, all right, But don't just
be a pushover and whatever mil or like someone a buttter. No, no, no,
(01:08):
no no. I'm giving you my educated opinion on what's
gonna happen. I spent way too much times one of
my hobbies here to look at the numbers and crunch
the numbers. But as my friend Dick Stockton's famously said
years ago, I say friend, he was a barely a friend.
But Dick Stockton told me said, listen, stats tell you
what has happened. They don't tell you what's gonna happen,
(01:29):
which is true, which is true. So you can have
all the numbers in front of you, but you know, bizarre,
crazy crap seems to happen. Uh and all that. But
we will not be talking about the Bills, Colts, Bears,
and Raiders. All of them are on the bye week
this week, so they are all not playing. And Gascon,
I would like you to talk slowly and loudly. I
(01:51):
am as hot as fire right now. I am. I mean,
I thought I want to bribe here, but this is
a wake up call. I mean for people that that
are are shipping on me. I have put the pedal
to the medal so far this season, and I have
put up a lot of cush, a lot of cush.
And the nice thing is is that your listeners are
(02:12):
always asking about you, your performances, and they also want
to know about the penny, and the penny last week
finished a blazing eleven and three. Now nobody cares about
the pin nobody cares about. I am destroying the penny
of this work tool. And twenty six I have a
(02:32):
six six seven against the spread documented record. That's pretty good.
I know you cheer for the penny because you're an idiot. Well,
but you got screwed out of one game that was
your game, the Thursday night one from that was a
bad beat man that that killed me. Man, I had
that game and they But to be fair, I have
(02:55):
won a couple of games that I had no business winning.
So that remember the Redskins scored up back door touchdown
against the Philly in Week one that came out of
left field, and uh so they covered the cover the number.
All right, well, let's get to it here. I guess Joan,
are you gonna be this your Is this your best
start ever since versus the penning started in your career? Yeah,
(03:18):
you know, it's right up there. I don't that's hard.
My memory is kind of I try to forget about
a lot of this stuff. But yeah, I mean, I
would think it's hard to push back against that that.
I've had some really shitty years. So I've been like
five weeks in. I'm like I'm under five, you know,
I'm just five hundred to be at this point and
(03:40):
have a record where you you are, you know, twenty
six games above five hundred against the spread, that is, Yeah,
it's gotta be. I can't remember a year where I
was that far up at this particular point. Anyway, al Right,
first up, Carolina at Tampa Bay. It's in London. This
is an NFL Network game. It starts at nine in
(04:00):
the East, but for those of us that live in
the West, six thirty in the morning, which means I
will not be watching a second of this game. Uh.
The NFL care so little about this. They're having Rich
Eyes and Kurt Warner and Steve Mariushi called the game
with Michael Irvin. Uh. It's on on NFL Network at
six in the morning. The game open to pick him now.
Carolina is a two and a half, so it's essentially
(04:23):
a neutral site game. The big games being played at
Tottenham's Hotspur Stadium in London, if that does anything for you.
The weather calls for rain showers and sixty two degrees
fahrenheit at kickoff. I'm gonna take Carolina in this game,
and I'll tell you why. Number one after this signature
win over the Rams, the Buccaneers. They came tumbling back
(04:47):
to reality the last week against the New Orleans says.
Now they are in another divisional Donnie Brook against Carolina.
Both these teams will be on vacation next week after
they come back from and so they're both looking at
a bye week, all right. This will be a rematch
of week two. And Tampa Bay won that game. It
was ugly. That was a Cam Newton special fourteen and
(05:11):
if you watch that game, Cam Newton was the reason
the Panthers lost. So you love Carolina in a revenge spot.
And now they have a legit quarterback as well, which
is another reason to give you the daily double here
to like the Carolina Panthers. And after losing the first
two games that year with Cam Newton, Carolina now has
(05:32):
reeled off three straight victories, all of them under the
tutelage of Kyle Allen at quarterback. And he is just
the third Carolina quarterback all time to win each of
his first three NFL starts. The other ones to do it,
you know who they are. I'm gonna say. I'm gonna
say Carrie Collins and Jake Delone what half right? Jake
(05:53):
delm is correct. The other one is now a blowhard
on l A radio. Rodney Pete, how about that. That's
a long time ago. Man. They're gonna stay like Steve
Burline or something like that. Well, we could throw him
in there, but this Kyle Allen, he's he's not just
along for the ride here. He's not sitting in the
back of the bus. He's in the front of the bus.
(06:14):
Allen is fourth in the entire NFL and quarterback rating.
And I expect this to be a close game. Most
divisional games are closed. But the key here's I'm gonna
put my money on Christian McCaffrey and defected. Up until
this point, Kyle Allen, knock on wood has not thrown interception.
Panthers will pull away late Panthers thirty four bucks, twenty four.
(06:38):
I don't know what the hell you just knocked on,
but it wasn't would anyways, Penny's going with the Compenny
is coming with the Panthers as well. I can't afford
real woods, so it's a fake. Alright, alright, next up,
don't judge me. Be sure to catch live editions of
The Ben Maller Show weekdays at two am Eastern eleven
pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I Heart Radio.
(07:00):
Don't judge all right? Cincinnati oh in five at Baltimore
three and two. It is a CBS game with Kevin
Harlan and Rich Gannon. The Ravens opened up an eight
and a half point favorite. They are favorite by eleven
and a half. It's gonna be partly sunny, sixties six
degrees at kickoff at m n T Bank Stadium in
(07:22):
Donald Trump's favorite city of Baltimore, Maryland. I am gonna
take Cincinnati, and I don't love doing this, but you
have to do it. I have to stick to my
principles as a gambler, and so I'm gonna take Cincinnati.
But first of all, it is always risky to bet
on bad teams. However, if you do this a lot,
there is value. These are the orphans of the NFL.
(07:44):
You want to be on the side of the book.
You No one's gonna bet on the Cincinnati Bengals. Why
would you? But this is actually a good spot for
the Bankers. Why the Ravens are coming off an overtime
game against an arch rival in their in their division, Pittsburgh,
and they have to take on the Seahawks next week.
So this is what's known as yep sandwich game, right
(08:04):
this is now it's a divisional game, but it's still
a sandwich game because you had a key divisional game
with Pittsburgh, hard fought overtime game. You got a showcase
game against the Seahawks next week, and nobody bets on
the Bengals. Nobody gets up for Cincinnati. The Bengals and
Ravens have actually split forty six meetings all time, and
the Bengals, as miserable as they've been, have one two
(08:27):
of the last three meetings, eight to the last eleven.
I know it's a different Bengal team. They're they're terrible.
I get that, but I'm on the side of Cincinnati.
And and secondly, the other thing here's quietly Lamar Jackson
has regressed. All that hoop law hand him the m
v P after two weeks, that's calmed down. Last two weeks,
Lamar Jackson's the twenty seventh ranked quarterback in the NFL.
(08:49):
The last four weeks, Lamar Jackson's the twenty ninth ranked
quarterback in the NFL. So life is just really that
first game against Miami that he was lighting the world
on fire. Uh, and and he's come back crashing down
to earth. And so now now he obviously has the
running ability and the Bengals are a sloppy tackling team,
(09:10):
which does give me a little plause here, like Lamar
Jackson could run for a hundred and seventy yards in
this game and and kill you. Um but Cincinnati, Uh,
they have been, next to the Dolphins, the worst team
in football because they have only led for a little
over fifty one minutes of game time, second lowest in
the NFL. You know how many minutes the Miami Dolphins
(09:31):
have had the lead. I'm gonna say four minutes, close
less than four minutes, three minutes and forty seven seconds
heading into Week six. That is that is craziness. That
assuming that the Bengals actually put in an honest effort
guest gun, which is a big assumption, right, I mean
it's a big assumption. Uh. You know, I would think
(09:53):
that Andy Dalton he's fine in non prime time games.
And the Ravens past defense is not as good as advertised,
So it behooves one to bet on the Bengals. You
gotta cover your eyes here, close your mouth. The whole
thing and take the Bengals to cover Ravens twenty four
(10:15):
Bengals seventeen. I mean it's like you're drinking pepto every
time you take a bad team. Penny's going with the Ravens.
You've done this the last three or four weeks. You
started off with Miami and Cincinnati in weeks one and two. Well,
Cincinnati did cover a week one dummy. They covered against Seattle.
That wasn't a bad bet, okay. And the Redskins, yeah,
(10:38):
I have one money with the Redskins Dolphins, Dolphins, No,
but the Redskins against Philly they cut also dangerous. Such
a hater, man, I just do such a hitter. Why
can't why why can't I get a Bennett to work
with me, a real cheerleader. That could be arranged. We
got plenty of listeners on the streets. Be sure to
(10:58):
catch live editions The Ben Maller Show weekdays at two
am Eastern Pacific. Wow. Alright, next up Seattle at Cleveland
and it is on Fox, and we've got Chris Myers,
my former colleague, our former colleague with Darryl Moose Johnston. There.
The Browns opened up a two and a half point favorite.
Then everyone saw them play Monday night football and to
(11:22):
Seattle is now a two point favorite. Last I saw here,
And this is at First Energy Stadium in Cleveland, not
corporately named at all. Partly sunny and a mild tepid degrees.
That is beautiful weather for Cleveland. Just wait another month
or two and see what the weather is like. But
the pick is in, and I am gonna take. Oh boy,
(11:46):
you're gonna You're gonna give me ship for this. I'm
taking the Cleveland Browns. I'm taking the Cleveland Browns here. Uh.
And I'll tell you why. Russell Wilson has been wonderful,
but more importantly, he's been lucky, and luck doesn't normally continue. Uh.
The Seattle has stolen two games by Mike can I
already mentioned the Bengal game Week one, where Cincinnati had
(12:07):
over two hundred more yards of offense and and they
somehow managed to lose that at the end. And then
you've got the Legatron missed field goal. In other words,
imagine what the public perception of Seattle would be if,
instead of having that shining for and one record, the
Seahawks had a two and three record, which is what
(12:29):
their record would be had those games gone the other way.
And I don't know if some butts were candy and
nuts at bet Christmas every day, but I mean you
gotta factor that in here, and this would be a
tremendous value play. And the way I look at that,
those are essentially losses for me, for for Seattle in
those two games here. So the public is also loading
(12:50):
up in Seattle. You love to bet against the public
when they load up on these teams. Now, part the
Baker Mayfield is the bottom of the barrel, whatever is
behind your toilet. Uh he is. That is how he
is doing. He's not even a run of the mill quarterback,
all right. He is pouring bleach down his throat every
time he plays here, and in most of these games
(13:11):
he has a dreadful sixty eight point five pass a.
Ready to put that in perspective, only Luke Falk and
Josh Rosen have been worse from the Jets and Dolphins, respectively.
It really is a reached critical mass here for Mayfield.
The contrast this week is stunning. Russell Wilson has been
the top rated quarterback this season. The Browns they're coming
(13:35):
off a bye. Uh, They're They've also got the bye
week next week, I should say, so there is some
question about how focused they're getting. Sometimes, you know, the
day before school ends or a vacation, you're not. You're
just kind of going through the motions and all that.
But all that said, you bet on Cleveland in this
spot because when the opposing team has little pass rush,
(13:58):
Baker Mayfield will do well. The Ravens had no pastures.
Now seele has got some big names on defense, but
they have not been a top notch team getting to
the quarterback. So a lot of chubble love love running
the ball for the Brownies here home field and all that,
and I will take Cleveland Browns. They'll win the game
(14:18):
out white in a surprise, a stunner and they say
the Browns are back. They'll finally throw the ball at
Odell Beckham. Browns Seahawks twenty one bounce back looking for
their first home win of the season. Penny's also going
with the Browns. Uh, interesting, you were mocking me, and
then the penny agreed. Next a bad team, though they're
not a bad team like my Browns are a bad team.
(14:40):
They are they're playing like I mean, did you see
the game against the forty. They got punched in the
face repeatedly. I mean like they look like the Bengals.
They don't want to play there. Ridiculous. What's your jokes anyway?
All right, moving on, Fox Sports Radio has the best
sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our
shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com and within the
(15:01):
I Heart Radio app search f s R to listen live.
Let's get trivial. You ready to get less trivial? Let's
get all right? Which quarterback leads the NFL with six
miscommunications with his receivers? So the most disconnect between the quarterback? Now,
this according to the advanced statistics of the NFL. So
I don't know if I believe this or not. How
(15:22):
do they judge when a miscommunication is But they say
this quarterback has had six. That is the most of
any one quarterback in the NFL. We'll give me the
answer coming up in a couple of minutes. Next up,
this is one of the showcase games this weekend for
me Houston three and two at Cansa City four and one.
It is on CBS with Iron Eagle and Dan Fouts.
(15:44):
The Chiefs opened up an eight and a half point favorite,
but the public is flocking to Houston. They can't bet
on them enough. Give me, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme,
gimme the Texans. They're all saying, Uh. The forecast at
Arrowhead sunny fifty six degrees at kickoff, with beautiful barbecue
(16:05):
smells in the air. Oh God, what a fine city.
I love Kansas City, one of my favorite cities. Just
the barbecue people are nice too. All right, a couple
of things. I'm gonna take the Chiefs here. I'll tell
you why. Now, who are the real Houston Texans? Betting
on the Texans is a crapshoot. Last game against the
morbid Falcons team, the Texans had ten plays of twenty
(16:26):
or more yards. That's the most in their franchisees history.
But a lot of that was a byproduct of Atlanta
not being interested, right, and it's just kind of going
through the motions and all that stuff, and that's sound
of their playbook there. The Falcons no defensive intensity and
Deshaun Watson had a record breaking day and we will
(16:48):
give him that, but he's like a human yo Yo,
this guy against the lingering and banged up Chiefs defense,
you figure he's gonna play well. But he struggled mightily
against Jacksonville, which does not have a top notch defense.
I also had problems against the Carolina Panthers. Deshaun Watson
(17:09):
did and in the second The big part of this
is we need Patrick Mahomes I do to snap out
of the funk. Mr Automatica has not been Mr Automatica
in recent games. She said, A couple of dots. You say,
the law of averages. He was due for that, but
against the Lions and the Colts, not nearly the super
nova the force multiplier that he has been so far.
(17:32):
And the excuse band is like, well, let's strike up
the band. He's hurt blah blah blah blah blah blah.
The last two weeks, Mahomes is the twenty night quarterback
in the NFL twenty that's your m v P. The
Chiefs have a short week. This is the one thing
that scares me about Kansas City have a short week.
They played Denver in four days after this game, which
is not the ideal set up. Nevertheless, you like the
(17:54):
hungry team coming off a loss that's Kansas City suffering defeat,
the agony of defeat for the first time. So like
a boomerang, Kansas City comes back around. They ain't losing
back to back games. This will be a shootout. But
I'm gonna take Patrick Mahomes and his weaponry Chiefs thirty
seven Texans thirty one plus Kids City. He's getting some
(18:16):
guys back. You just hate DeShawn Watson, so the penny
is gone with the Texans that hates the right emotion.
You are disgusted with Deshaun Watson, like to point out
that he's over rated, over rated. I'm surprised you didn't
call it Deshaun Watson that stuff in the back of
(18:37):
your toilet. And that's how much disgusted and anks you
have for a guy like him. I know you love him.
You're a big jock snifference, you're a fanboy. I get
it tough to work with a guy like me. I
crucify everyone. You know how I am New Orleans four
and one at Jacksonville. How about them Jags? You say,
how about them Jags? Jacksonville losing last week to the
(19:01):
Carolina Panthers, so they have a two and three record
now after that performance the two and three record. I
am going to this game's on CBS. By the way,
Greg Gumbel and Trent Green. The Jags opened a one
and app point favorite their favorite by one. It's gonna
be mostly sunny and hot, eighty three degrees. That kick
(19:26):
off at t I A a bank field, whatever that is.
That's the place in Jacksonville with the pool. I'm gonna
take the jackson I'm I'm I'm gonna take Gardner, Minshew
and and coming here now. First of all, listen, Teddy Bridgewater,
I look like a complete donkey. I did a monologue
about how the Saints were in trouble with Bridgewater and
on it. I really believe that he has been much
(19:46):
better than anticipating is three and all as a starter
this year, he's completed at least sevent of his passes
in a remedial passing game that the Ravens or the
Saints have been running. Here, he's the first Saints quarterback
and history to have three starts to win his first
three starts while completing sevent his passes. So this is
historic start. But it is a dumb down playbook. This
(20:08):
is very few exotic plays. Hey it's working right, stupid
it don't fix it. It's working. I get it, But
is that gonna work this week? Just because it's worked
in past weeks doesn't mean it's gonna work this week.
It is a road game. Uh. Secondly, the Jags are
looking to bounce back. Remember we like the team's coming
off a loss to bounce back late loss to Carolina
last week. Now, one thing that has been reliable is
(20:32):
Gardner Minshew the second. He has a thousand and four
passing yards and no interceptions in his first four career starts. Now,
to put that in perspective, we use this the other
night on the radio show. But Gardner Minshew now joining
Dak Prescott as the only other quarterback in NFL history
(20:52):
that at least a thousand yards and no interceptions in
his first four career starts. He's been that good. Now,
I picked an off week from the Saints just a
feeling I have here. It's have a hunch, better bunch.
I love the unique Gardner Minshew Minshew mania and all
that with the guts and the guile. Very accurate. The
(21:13):
most important skill is accuracy for a quarterback. And I
also have Leonard for net as well, a top notch
running back at least have been the top running back
in the second half of games, mainly because of that
Bronco game. Uh. In the NFL, Jacksonville will win this game,
Jaguars twenty four Saints A penny likes the stash as well.
(21:35):
Go with the Jags, all right? Next up Philadelphia Philly?
At who uh that would be? They would be the Minnesotavice. Actually,
before we get that, have I paid off the I
don't think I've paid off these. That's a bad job
by mean. All right, let's get trivial. Uh. So, the
question was which quarterback leads in the NFL with six
(21:57):
misscommunications with his receivers? Go ahead again. At first I
thought this question was based off of Deshaun Watson, But
after further review, I'm gonna say it is Captain Kirk Cousins.
Not a bad guess. It's not DeShawn Watson. It's not
Kirk Cousins, Believe it or not. According to the advanced
NFL statistics, it is Patty Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes of Kansas
(22:20):
City has had six six misscommunications with his receivers and
followed by Andy Dalton and Marcus Mariota and even Aaron
Rodgers is on this list. Did you look at that
stat based on on per game or was it just
a body of work. No, it's not it's not per game.
I believe it's told which see I agree with you.
(22:42):
I looked at that. I said that seems pretty low.
I think that everyone would have miscommunications more than six.
You know, has Josh Rosen? You think Rosen would be
up there. He looks like he has no idea what
his doesn't look like he knows who his receivers are.
It looks like the receivers are running one playbook and
he's finding the other playbook. It's it's pretty wild, all right.
(23:06):
Next up Philadelphia. As I said at Minnesota three and
two two three and two versus three and two on
Fox with our friend Malley Militia man, Kenny Albert, friend
of the show, and Charles Davis, great guy. I love
Charles Davis, the voice of Mad. We used to have
him on all the time when I did daytime radio
on the weekends. So the Vikings opened up a three
point favorite. They are currently favored by three. Now it's
(23:30):
gonna be cloudy and forty degrees that kickoff outside the stadium,
but inside US Bank Stadium, it will be fine. Uh,
it'll it'll be perfectly fine. There nothing nothing to worry
about here. The pick is in. I'm gonna take the
Minnesota Vikings in this game. I'm gonna take a swing
with Minnesota. A couple of reasons. Why all right? Which now,
obviously which Kirk Cousins is gonna show up? He was
(23:51):
back playing like a guy with surgical precision last week
against the Giants. In fact, he was so good he
got a presidential congratulatory phone call from press and Donald Trump.
You see that, guest, When did it happened? Trump called
Kirk Cousins on Sunday after his game against the Giants
to congratulate him on the win. You're gonna piss off
(24:13):
a lot of your listeners. Why you mentioned Trump? People
get triggered. Well, I know there's the snowflakes, don't like.
I think that's fascinating, man, because like, just like it's
a regular season game, like Trump. Apparently Cousins golf with
Trump a while ago, and so they're they're they're boys
A little big. I mean still, I remember when I
(24:37):
was a kid, it was like a big thing. If
you won the Super Bowl or the World Series, the
president would call and talk to the coach and say
good job by you, and all this stuff was a
tradition in America. I stopped years ago. But a regular
season game. Well, the good news here for Kirk Cousins
is why the Eagles are a winning team, which is
a problem. Philadelphia is also twenty seven in the NFL
(24:58):
and past defense, which you figure bode well for the
Vikings offensively. Now that said the Eagles because became the
first team with ten sacks and two defensive touchdowns in
a single game in NFL history, just last week. But
there's an asterisk next to that. You know why there's
an asterisk that because they played the Jets and Luke Folks.
(25:20):
So it wasn't like a real It was like playing
the j V. You know, you run up to score.
It was a money, money game earlier in the year
in college football. Um. Now, part be my main reason
to like Minnesota be on that side. Here is the
matchup the mental side of gambling, which we often bring up.
I bring this up. I believe in this this mojoe.
Philadelphia has a matchup next week against the Cowboys, and
(25:42):
if you don't know anything about the Eagle franchise. This
is a massively important game. The Eagle Cowboy rivalry is insane, right.
The people of Philadelphia, the whole city, the whole community,
and it's big for the players also, and that that's
the only other threat to Philadelphia in the NFC East.
The Giants are a joke, the Redskins are an embarrassment.
(26:03):
So it's really the Cowboys are Eagles. Is a two
horse race in that division. So what does that mean?
That means that that makes this game a peek a
boo game, right, peek a boot you get caught looking
ahead and surprise. Uh. Plus, the Eagles are the popular
pick by popular people in Joe public. I like betting
on the side of the bookie, I like betting against
(26:25):
the public. There's a lot of green on green here.
Financially your toss in Dalwin Cook, who has seven hundred
and forty two scrimmage yard through five games, the second
most by a Viking through five games since Adrian Peterson
in his MVP year back in the day. And now
Philadelphia has got a good run defense, but they played
(26:47):
some teams that don't run the ball that well at all.
I believe the Vikings will have a feel good week.
A surprise, Philly gets caught peeking ahead. Vikings thirty Eagles
twenty three. That number of three penny likes Philadelphia on
the road. All right, there you go, enjoy Philadelphia. Next
(27:09):
up Washington, oh In five at Miami O and four's
game should not be televised. It's on Fox, so you
better not watch who is who's calling this game? Guest,
I'm gonna say, for for a million dollars, is it
Dick Stockton, No, shocker of shockers, It's not Dick Stockton.
(27:31):
I was I. I thought the same thing. Sam Rosen,
Sam Roses gonna call this game. Poor Sam Rosen with
what I know, he's getting pin a lot of money
with Ronde Barber No all a real quick bet. I
know that obviously this is a a pick up game
for you in terms of betting and whatnot. But a
a sports book in Las Vegas actually sends us out
(27:55):
weekly lines for games and prop bets, and at the
time'll have this game. It's called the Ineptitude Bowl, that
is what it is. It says, well, the Redskins or
Dolphins game will end in a tie, and there's actually
a bet that you can make plus twelve hundred for Yes,
it'll end in tie, Ma'll end with one team winning it. Yeah, yeah,
(28:16):
well I would call it the suck ball because they
both suck. They are terrible. Yeah, I can't believe you
captain game. Yeah all right, well, the Redskins. There's money
to be made here. You know, you can win just
as much money betting on this game as you can't
betting on the prime time games Miami. Uh. As a
(28:38):
home team coming off a bye week, the Redskins are
They opened up a six and a half point favorite.
Somehow the public is betting on the Dolphins, and the
Redskins are down to a three and a half point
favorite at hard Rock Stadium. The forecast calls for partly
sunny eighty four degrees, typical Miami weather this time of
the year. And I'm gonna take the red Skins. Uh
(29:00):
ca'n on the Redskins. Now, a couple of things here.
I almost spent a lot of time on this, But
number one, I did see the interim coach. Now, Bill
Callaghan is gonna make his debut on the sidelines. Jay
Gruden was giving the given the boat kick to the curb,
thrown overboard, whatever you want to say. Callaghan has cut
out music in practice. He has attempted to lay down
(29:24):
the lumber to get this Redskins team more focused, doing
some old school coaching techniques. I also saw where case
Keenom is gonna get the ball to start this game.
He's actually the best of the quarterbacks of the Redskins,
which isn't saying much. He's also played better on the
road than he has at home. Miami's defense, I mean
they suck at everything, you know, the Dolphins. I saw
the stat this. I had to look at this three times.
(29:45):
The Dolphins defense are allowing opponents to convert fifty seven
point eight percent of the third down, almost sixty percent
of the time. If you on third down you get
a first down. That is unbelievable. Oh man, all right. Uh. Secondly,
that this isn't both these teams want to lose. I
get that. The franchises, I love. The Redskins fired their coach.
(30:07):
They still it is the suck balls we said. The
Dolphins also get to play the thing of the Dolphins.
They get to play the Jets two times and the Bengals.
So the NFL schedule gods are really making it difficult
for Miami to go oh in sixteen, right, I mean
they would that would be the greatest own sixteen of
all time. If they lose two to the Jets, they
lose to the Bengals and the Redskins. Right, those are
(30:30):
five winnable game and I admit this is a winnable
game for the Dolphins. Uh, But I mean the idea
that you could have any kind of money on the Dolphins,
I I I left that I'm off them after the
first couple of weeks here, Um, Brian Floores and the
Dolphins and Josh Rosen look like they've never played football before, right,
never played not not firing on all cylinders, firing on
(30:53):
no cylinders? Uh? Is the Miami Dolphins here? The Dolphins
have a minus one thirty seven point differ NIEL. That
is the lowest market in NFL history, And somehow people
are still betting on them. The public is loading up.
The public is stupid, The public are idiots. Redskins twenty seven,
Miami sixteen, Hell to the Redskins, Hail to victory. Spend
(31:16):
five minutes of that game. Go with the Redskins as well.
This money will be made guest unbelie. All right, shut up,
don't judge me. The last last part of this we
have the late games, all right, Santa Clara, the Santa
Clara forty Niners at four and oh at the Los
Angeles Rams at three and two. It is on Fox.
(31:38):
And yes, David, our guy, Dick Stockton is calling this game,
which is actually not a bad game. This is not
a bad game. Um. I believe it's because Joe, Joe
Buck and Aikman only work one game this week because
it's not the Fox America's Game of the Week. So
I think that's why Stockton gets to do this game.
But it's stick Stockton and Mark Slavery and the Rams
(32:00):
open a five point favorite. They are favored by three.
I was gonna be at this game, but I assumed
the Dodgers were gonna be in the National League Championship Series,
so I could not go. I had some other things
I do, uh too late now, so I will not
be able to attend this. But the the forecast seventy
seven and mostly sunny in Los Angeles at the College
see him. I'm gonna take the Rams here, uh, and
(32:21):
a couple of reasons why now, First, of all, the
forty Niners are coming off a short week, so you
day less to get ready for this. The Rams have
had extra rest. Remember they last played the last Thursday,
so you've got the fresher team with the Rams that
the game should be a bit of a track meet.
Over the last three weeks, the Rams and Niners are
the NFL's most prolific offensive teams and yards per games.
(32:44):
Santa Clara has a better defense, I'll give you that,
but they have given up over a hundred yards more
per game on the road then at home. And this
is a much bigger game for the Rams to get
some credibility back. Everyone's shipping on him to get some
swagger back and make up for that idiot kicker the
(33:06):
Mr Greg the leg and Legatron blowing it and and
pulling a kershaw at the end of that game in Seattle.
So it's it's the first back to back losses in
the Sean McVeigh here. A secondly, the Niners are they
are getting their toes licked by everyone in the media,
the NFL media elite. Niners are the toast of the NFL.
(33:27):
They have been fond on all over at some point
that does affect your bio rhythms here. Uh And I
know they took the soul out of Baker Mayfield last
week and all that, but this week is more of
an even matchup against what should be a hungry, hungry
dog they Los Angeles Rams here, even though their favorite
my theory is the short week. Also, some key injuries
(33:50):
now starting for the forty niners here. A couple of
you guys, You guys are out. They have five five
guys actually three guys up front on the defensive line
that are are really good. Nick Bosa, d Ford de
Forrest Buckner are are legit um. But Sean McVeigh is
supposed to be the evil genius and all that. I
play a hunch better bunch, as we say, you can
(34:12):
ram it all day, and you can ram it all
night and all night. Are back. You're damn right, Rams
thirty four twenty eight Penny. Also go at the Rams.
There's an extra nugget for you too, Ben. Sean McVeigh
is ten and one as Rams coach with extra time
to prepare, and eight one and one against the spread.
(34:34):
Look at you doing some research. I was just trying to,
you know, add a little something since the Penny was
on fire last week. So wow, all right, well let's
get trivial. You want to get trivia and Mattie Ice.
Matt Ryan has thrown for at least three hundred yards
in three consecutive games, all of them Falcon losses. Only
three quarterbacks have ever done this in four consecutive games.
(34:56):
It's only happened four three. Three guys in the history
of the NFL over four four games have had three yards.
The team has lost every game. Philip rivers In for
the Chargers, Bill Kenny for Kansas City back in the
nineteen eighties eighty three. Who is the third the third
quarterback to pass for at least three hundred yards three
consecutive games and have their team lose all of them?
(35:19):
The answer coming up in a bit. Uh, we'll speaking
of Matt Ryan. The Falcons Atlanta one and four at
Arizona one, three and one. It's on Fox with Tom
Brennaman and Chris Spielman and the Fox box that Rocks
calling this particular game. And what a slowdown this is
Atlanta and Era. This is as bad as the Redskins
(35:39):
in the Dolphins, Man Peu, what stinks? Falcons opened a
two and a half point road favorite. I believed that
number is the same. I've got it here. It's two
and a half. Currently, as we're doing this in real time,
it'll be sunny in eighties six degrees at kickoff outside
State Farm Stadium. I assume everyone be be air conditioning inside.
(36:03):
I'm gonna take the Cardinals here and I'll tell you why.
Atlanta has left an impression in me that they are
just going through the motions like they're not interested, all right,
And and for whatever reason, I don't know if it's
because dan Quinn the coach doesn't rule with a rod
(36:23):
of iron and the players are walking all over him. Um,
but the Cardinals are a bad team, but they they're trying.
They suck, but they're trying. And Atlanta, I don't even
know how much they're trying to check engine light has
come on the dashboard there, No one's no one seems
to be concerned about looking under the hood. Uh. Dan
(36:44):
Quinn is hanging on by his nails, the ends of
his finger nails there. It has been a disaster. The
Falcons have the toxic brew going. They are in a
poor state of repair. Bad at the basics, just like
the simple things in full blocking and tackling. They're bad
at those things, blocking and tackling. Uh Part B here,
(37:05):
this pick is not so much of my confidence in Arizona.
I want to be very clear. I'm not on the
Cardinal bandwagon. They're a bad team. I don't believe Kyler
Murray is all that good. Some people are impressed by
his inflated passing statistics because the Cardinals and most of
these games have been blown out. Uh so, don't lose
sight of that. And and certainly Arizona could certainly lose
(37:30):
this game very easily. But in reality, this selection is
just betting against the Falcon all right, that's it. I'm
just betting against the Falcons. I don't trust them. They're
They're just soft as soft can be. They serve soft,
serve ice cream, that's what they serve up. They get
out work, they get out played. They are sloppy, penalty
field mess. And you're taking a home dog against a
(37:52):
team like that. I'm gonna take the home dog, is
what I'm gonna do. Cardinals forty Falcons thirty eight in
a shootout, Penny loves Kyler Murray in the spot and
go with the Cardinals. Loves Alligator Rosa Loopa of the NFL.
Let's get trivia all the answer I mentioned Mattie Ice
(38:14):
three yards passing three consecutive games, all Atlanta loss. Is.
Only three quarterbacks have ever done this in four straight games.
Philip Rivers in for the old San Diego Chargers, Bill
Kenny for Kansas City in three are two of them?
Who is the third? Mr? Gascon? I'm gonna go with
(38:34):
a former cult and Falcon, Jeff George. Jeff George, that's
not bad. Jeff George put up numbers in games and
the team usually lost, and the wheels were turning, but
they weren't going in the right direction. No, it is not.
He is. Here's a here's a good name from the past.
Match Shop Atlanta Falcon, Houston, Texan. Yeah, he did this
(38:56):
in Houston. Do you know I have my I have
match Shops phone number. You know why? He was a
guest on Fox Sports Radio and uh when he was
the Texans quarterback and he gave me I guess he
wanted to be on again. He wanted that. He liked
the promotion, as I remember. Let me ask you his
name in your phone? Is that Matt Schobers at Mr
(39:17):
Pick six. I don't even know. Well, here's the thing.
Once the number goes on my phone, it's in there
forever my when I die all these nights, like there
are a lot of people and I we should do
this on the other podcast. But like when somebody dies,
I never take their name out. I I don't do that. Yeah,
I was leaving in there. It's like my tribute to them.
Like sometimes I'll see people's names that passed away. I'm like,
(39:39):
I remember that person. I have a fond memory of
that person. So it's my memorial to them. They're in
my phone for life, all right. It's like once you're
in the family, you're in the family for Like how
morbid is that? I know? I Dallas three and two
at the New York Jets oh and four. It's on CBS.
(40:00):
Can you believe that Jim Nance and Tony Romo are
could be doing this game? Yes? I can't. Jets are
supposed to be decent this year, but who knows about
Mono and Adam Gates and all this ship that's going
on with the Jets. Yeah, they are a disaster. The
Cowboys opened a seven point favorite. They are seven and
a half point favorite in this game. But we mostly
(40:22):
cloudy sixties six degrees at kickoff outside of m or
MetLife for US Stadium rather MetLife Stadium there in Jersey.
And you're gonna kick my in the nuts here, Guesscan.
But I gotta do it. I'm gonna spit in the ocean.
I'm gonna take the Jets. I'm going to take the
Jets here. Uh and let me try to explain my
my side? Does let me give my elevator pitch on
(40:44):
why the Jets are the right side. Okay, here's what
I'm doing. Number one. The Cowboys are like a following
comment in the sky. It has been an eye opening
couple of weeks. Now I realized they played better competition.
But Dak Prescott can say we're not in Can's us anymore. Right.
Prescott passed for a career high four hundred sixty three
yards in a blowout loss in garbage time against the
(41:07):
Packers last week, but he was intercepted three times that
match career high, and and Dak Prescott has been shaky here.
He started out wonderfully, and now he's beginning to wet
the bed as the season's gone on. In fact, the
last four weeks, dak Prescott is back to where he's
always been. He's the nineteenth ranked quarterback in the NFL,
(41:28):
which is where I put him in that you know,
seventeen to twenty range, somewhere in that area, maybe fifteen.
When he plays well. The last two weeks against the
Packers and the Saints, Dakota Prescott is the twenty five
rank quarterback in the NFL. So that gives you a
pause in the Cowboys. And to listen, the Jets sock
they're terrible. They should clear the decks. I understand all that, right,
(41:50):
Sell the team down the river. H Adam Gates his
crazy eyes. You don't know what the hell he's doing.
They've they've paid a trip to the dark side. I
get all that, but you're talking about a home team
getting seven a half. Sam Donald's coming back from motto.
It's gonna be his motto game as he bounces back.
This looks too easy. And if something looks too easy
(42:12):
and gambling right, other than the betting against the Dolphins, Uh,
there is no such thing as a sure thing. You
would assume obviously there the perfect pick here would be
the Cowboys, right if they don't steam roll gang green
Heads should roll something is broken. Blah blah blah blah
blah blah blah. How big a mismatches this. The second
(42:33):
half of last week's lost to the Packers, the Cowboys
put up three and forty eight totally yards. That is
one and a half times the total yards the Jets
have managed the last two games. Yourbine, all right, but
that was with Luke falk Uh and Dallas had thirty
two first downs against Green Bay. The Jets have twenty
eight first downs in their last three games combined. But nevertheless,
(42:56):
I expect this to be more of a cat and
mouse situation here. Um not only because of Sam Donald
coming back to some other injured Jets that are gonna
come back. The Cowboys also are in the old peekaboo
situation because they have the Eagles, a blood rival, division rival.
Big game look ahead. Now. I believe the Cowboys will
(43:16):
win this game, but because the Jets are a comedy
of errors, it's a comedy show. But I'm gonna close
my eyes, cover my ears, shut my mouth, predict a
couple of Dak Prescott mistakes here. It's the life of
the Gambler. Cowboys will win. Cowboys twenty four Jets twenty three,
(43:37):
actually twenty I'm penny thinks the Jets get their first
to one of the season. It's going with the New
York Jets. I'm not going that far. I've been drinking.
I'm not. I'm drinking the cool at a little bit.
I'm just putting my toe in the cool word. I'm not.
I'm not going all in. All right, let's keep it going.
We got you can keep this singing and moving in
Tennessee at Denver. It's on CBS. Andrew Catalan and James
(44:00):
Lofton have the call. Game open to pick and Broncos
are a two and a half point favorite. It'll be
sunny in sixty nine degrees at kick off in the
Mile High City at empower Field. That Mile High not
corporately named at all. The pick is in, and the
pick is I'm gonna take Tennessee. No, I don't love
(44:21):
this pick, but these teams to me are very similar
uh teams. First of all, the Broncos picked up their
their maiden victory under their new coach, Vic Fangio against
the Chargers in Los Angeles last week. That was a
nice band aid covering up a wound. That has been
the start of this season. And now some are saying
(44:42):
a sleeping giant has now awoken from hibernation and blah
blah blah blah blah, and the Denver's gonna roll off
a bunch of winds and they popped the seal. I
don't believe. I'm not buying. I don't think this is
a very good team. I think this is a middling team. Now.
To be fair, this is a very winnable game for
never there at home. Tennessee is a up and down team.
(45:04):
Their kaleidoscope team. They're all over the place. I just
don't trust Joe Flacco. Of course, I don't trust the
other quarterback either. The second thing here, Tennessee is a
hard team for me to get a read on because
Marcus Mariota. If you look at just the stats, and
you don't put your eyeballs into this, if you look
at the numbers, Mariota does not turn the ball over. Okay,
his numbers look very impressive, but when you actually watch him,
(45:26):
he's about as tough as cotton candy. Right that the
Titans zig when they're supposed to zag. They zag when
they're supposed to zig. The Titans have turned the ball
over just one time this season, and yet they have
a losing record. I mean, that's that's that's hard to do. Normally,
if you don't turn the ball over, you're just gonna
win most of the time. And they have turned them
(45:47):
all over just once, and yet there's six team in
the Super Bowl era with one or no turnovers through
five games and they have a losing record. We often
preach about how you you try to take into account
a lot of these different factor is and whatnot, like motivations,
scheduling and whatnot, and a lot of that is in
play here. All right, let me explain. So the Broncos
(46:08):
have a look ahead peekaboo game with the Chiefs next week.
That is a their arrivals Kansas City and Denver. That's
a big game for them, divisional game, not a divisional
game this weekend. The key for the Titans. All right,
Cameron Wake, Now, this guy is questionable. We don't know
if he's gonna play or not. That's this is a
crossroads game for me, like Tennessee is at a fork
in the road. Get back to five, go to three
(46:32):
and three. You're not great, You're average at three and three,
but you still got some skin in the game. At
three and three, you still got some skin in the game.
But you lose this game and suddenly you're under five hundred.
You've got the Chargers next week, which is another game
you can lose, and the snowball from Hell starts happening.
(46:53):
So I'm gonna, against my better judgment take Tennessee here
to get back to five and Titans nineteen. Broncos may
have lost two heartbreakers at home, Penny's going with the Broncos,
going with the Then you're a big Bronco fanboy, right,
(47:14):
that's your your deal. I retired from rooting for teams. Uh,
that's a lie after two thousand fourteen. Certainly, we're a
lot of a lot of hats. I see, I mean
I own a lot of hats. You have a lot
of bad team attire from listeners that are giving you
clothes throughout the years, shirts and hats, and yeah, well yeah,
(47:35):
I have I have a nice collection, a nice collection.
All right, let's move on a Sunday night. Wait wait, wait,
are you gonna pay off in one of my bets,
don't you? Or one of my the one of your teasers?
So was that did I have a mother tea? Did you? Oh? No,
I did not. I did the match up thing. That
was the last one I did. Gummy, bad job there
you it's bad. It is a bad jock? Is that boring?
(47:56):
What are you smoking a cigarette over that? The hell
are you doing? What are we doing? Balling out? I mean,
my god? I got some Justin's peanut butter cups. That's
all I got? Oh? Is that right? From Whole Foods.
These costs there's like ten of them inside this bag
from Whole Foods. They cost like seven dollars seven bucks, yeah,
ten for seven for ten Yeah, for Reese's pieces buttercups.
(48:19):
It's pretty much what I got. That's I don't think
that per unit is the that doesn't work out for me.
So this is what I go through. And I work
on your show, like I need to have your listeners
sponsor this show. No, I I want I want to
do this. I want to do these big commercial reads
and all that I bothers me that I need to
do like a sleep number commercials. I need it. I
(48:40):
need to sell something. I feel like we're just doing
this for free. It's but I know there are commercials
in it. But we don't get to read the commercials
and all that stuff. So please contact the I Heart
Media sales department. We will sell the hell out of
your product. There's a lot of people that listen to
this stuff, um, which shocks me. Also, all right, Pittsburgh
one in four at the lh Argers two and three.
(49:01):
It's on NBES see the Peacock Network with Al Michaels
and Chris Collinsworth. Now, the Charges open a five and
a half point favorite. They are a six and a
half point favorite in this spot, six and a point favorite.
I'm gonna I don't like the bet favorites, but I'm
gonna take the Charges here. I just gotta vibe on
this game. Pittsburgh is on. Like their fifth quarterback, someone
(49:24):
named Devlin Hodgers, is the chosen one. Mike Tomlin needs
divine intervention for Pittsburgh. Steelers have lots of forces working
against them. They travel to the West by stage coach. Uh.
They have the bye week after this week, so not
only do you have the West coast travel, but then
you're on vacation. All of these things are reasons to
(49:44):
doubt that this will be a very competitive performance. Now,
the Steelers do have a couple of big studs up front,
t J. Watt and Bud Dupree who will be able
to enjoy that fish Taco offensive line for the Bolts um.
But that's not gonna be a has score. You gotta
move the ball. Secondly, only four teams have been less
successful against UH than than the Steelers moving the ball.
(50:09):
For four teams that have been less successful against than
the Steelers at moving the ball over the last three weeks.
That includes Chicago, Washington, Miami, and the Jets. That's those
are the contemporaries of the Steelers, and that's the competition
for Pittsburgh's offense right now. How bad they've been, you
would think that the Chargers defense, which has also been spotty,
(50:31):
led by Joey Bosa and they've got injuries and all that,
they would be licking their chops going against this Devlin
Hodges guy. And the Chargers are statistically good there eleventh
in yards, but have failed the eyeball test. It's very
similar to the Titans. Titans Marcus Mariot has great stats,
they don't turn the ball over, they lose. Chargers. You
look at the stats, you're like, well, they're not bad.
(50:53):
They're not bad and not a bad team, but yet
you look at their under five hundred. I'm gonna go
out on a limb here. I'm gonna take Philip Rivers
and the Lightning Bolts with a rare comfortable win at
Dignity Health Sports Park there, or it'll be a sixty
seven degrees and kickoff Chargers thirty three, Steelers seventeen. Penny
(51:14):
likes the Bolts as well. All right, I know you're
excited about that last one, Gascon. Let's go to Monday
night football just down the street from my brother who
lives in Appleton, Wisconsin. Because he's an idiot, but he
he wanted to leave l A because it's so expensive
in California, which I don't blame him for, and he
(51:37):
he somehow fell in love with small town Wisconsin. Wow.
And he guy grew up in in l A. I
grew up in the same house I grew up in.
And he lives in Appleton, Wisconsin. And just that's where
the teams stay when they play the Packers in Appleton.
There's no hotels in Green Bay. I'm not I'm not
kidding in Appleton anyway. Detroit to one and one at
(51:57):
Green Bay four and one. This is a booger special
Booker McFarland in the broadcast booth with Joe test a tour.
You kind of remind me of Joe Testing. No way,
not even close. Not even close. Man, is that offensive?
When well, I just I think he's very um, I
think it's very polite on a lot of calls. And
(52:19):
I think he puts a lot of hot fudge on
top of the ice cream. I'll just say that much. Yeah,
I would put him in the hard old category. I think. Yeah,
but you gotta be careful. You know, you might be
working with him some day. He's gonna be careful about
that anyway. Alright, Uh, we'll elbow in on this game.
Packers opened a five and a half point favorite. They
(52:40):
are a four point favorite right now, and the weather
is gonna be mostly cloudy forty five degrees at kickoff,
starting a little bit at lambeau Field. The pick is in.
I'm gonna take the Lions here. I'm gonna take the
Lions in this game. I'll tell you why. Hey, this
is a let down spot for Green Bay. They're coming
off a high profile game America's Game of the Week
(53:01):
last week against the Cowboys, and it very convincing. They
ran over Dallas. Now it is back to the dull
grums of the NFL schedule. Nobody gets up for the lines,
even though it's a divisional opponent. Aaron Rodgers has also
been pretty average, you know, the last four weeks, Rogers
of the seventeen best passer in the NFL, seventeenth hee's average.
(53:21):
How the Packers have been able to run the ball,
so it hasn't really mattered that much, but the Packers
of the toast of the NFL. Also, everyone's celebrating that
win over Dallas and just fawning all over the Cowboys.
I like to bet against teams where everyone's kissing their
ass all week, and you can move the ball against
that Green Bay defense, you can get some yards. The
Dallas certainly did that in the second half last week.
(53:42):
And and Detroit is a fly under the radar team
under Matt Patricia. They've been the little engine that could
so far left for dead. They're supposed to be terrible
and garbage and all that stuff. Haven't been that way yet.
They've overachieved, played the Chiefs tough, beat Philly, uh and
they continue to chuggle long at a study pace. Everyone
seems to be waiting for all that to grind to
(54:03):
a halt. Here. Matthew Staffords actually played very well against
the green Bay Packers, in fact, historically good. I guess
the green Bay Packers over his last few games here
and and so I know the public loves green Bay.
I get that. But the natural tendency for the Lions
is to say, well, they can't win at Lambau, they
can't keep the game closed. I say, no, I'm gonna
(54:24):
take the Packers to win, but I believe this will
be a field goal game. I'll take the four points,
Packers twenty six, Lions twenty three, the opposite of the
penny they're going with the green Bay Packers. Man, good luck.
You know green Bay ranks twenty seven in the NFL
in conversions on third down. That's not good. It's not
(54:45):
if converted thirty point five cent on on third down.
So that's uh. That's by the way, that Matthew Stafford's
that you want the Matthew Staffords that all right. He
has thrown two or more touchdown passes in nine straight
eight matchups with green Bay, dating back only one player.
(55:06):
I use this on the radio show the other night.
Only one player has gone ten consecutive games with two
or more touchdowns against the single opponent. You know who
that is. I'm gonna say Andrew Luck against the Tennessee Titans.
Uh No, you gotta go back to the nineties Dan
Marino for the Miami Dolphins against the Jets. He went
(55:28):
ten consecutive games with two or more touchdown passes against
the the Jets. They have not had a good quarterback
since him as unbelievable. Yeah, it is pretty wild, all right, listen,
I hope yet good luck. May you win a lot
of money. If you win a lot of money, remember
the podcast. If you lose a lot of money, it's
not my fault. I have plausible then ability. Uh and
all that. And I have a great again, and try
(55:49):
the other partition. This is the hard old podcast, gast on.
But the other one we just played grab bass, right,
that's right. When we just go for around. We do
guy talk radio, barely talk about sports, uh do entertainment, conversation,
studies and emails and all that stuff. Anyway, have a
great week and we'll be back in the Magic Radio
Box on Fox Sunday in the Monday two am in
the east and one am in the west, and enjoy
(56:12):
and be safe. Enjoy your week,
Welcome. Players, You're welcome. It's time now penny the penny.
We know it is dear to your heart, but it
is now week six in the NFL, and we have
all your Sunday and Monday NFL handicapping information. It is
(00:24):
the fifth Hour with Ben Maller and David Gascon. But
this is our hard oh gambling podcast. You have come
to the right place if you're looking for some knowledge
on these games. The way this works, all right, let
me tell you something. The way we do this, okay,
I will give you my opinion on all these games.
You should not bet on every one of these games
(00:45):
the way I would like you to consume this podcast.
If you're a gambler, all right, do your own homework.
But if your research and my research lines up, then
that is food for thought. And I believe you should
go forward with a wager, all right, But don't just
be a pushover and whatever mil or like someone a buttter. No, no, no,
(01:08):
no no. I'm giving you my educated opinion on what's
gonna happen. I spent way too much times one of
my hobbies here to look at the numbers and crunch
the numbers. But as my friend Dick Stockton's famously said
years ago, I say friend, he was a barely a friend.
But Dick Stockton told me said, listen, stats tell you
what has happened. They don't tell you what's gonna happen,
(01:29):
which is true, which is true. So you can have
all the numbers in front of you, but you know, bizarre,
crazy crap seems to happen. Uh and all that. But
we will not be talking about the Bills, Colts, Bears,
and Raiders. All of them are on the bye week
this week, so they are all not playing. And Gascon,
I would like you to talk slowly and loudly. I
(01:51):
am as hot as fire right now. I am. I mean,
I thought I want to bribe here, but this is
a wake up call. I mean for people that that
are are shipping on me. I have put the pedal
to the medal so far this season, and I have
put up a lot of cush, a lot of cush.
And the nice thing is is that your listeners are
(02:12):
always asking about you, your performances, and they also want
to know about the penny, and the penny last week
finished a blazing eleven and three. Now nobody cares about
the pin nobody cares about. I am destroying the penny
of this work tool. And twenty six I have a
(02:32):
six six seven against the spread documented record. That's pretty good.
I know you cheer for the penny because you're an idiot. Well,
but you got screwed out of one game that was
your game, the Thursday night one from that was a
bad beat man that that killed me. Man, I had
that game and they But to be fair, I have
(02:55):
won a couple of games that I had no business winning.
So that remember the Redskins scored up back door touchdown
against the Philly in Week one that came out of
left field, and uh so they covered the cover the number.
All right, well, let's get to it here. I guess Joan,
are you gonna be this your Is this your best
start ever since versus the penning started in your career? Yeah,
(03:18):
you know, it's right up there. I don't that's hard.
My memory is kind of I try to forget about
a lot of this stuff. But yeah, I mean, I
would think it's hard to push back against that that.
I've had some really shitty years. So I've been like
five weeks in. I'm like I'm under five, you know,
I'm just five hundred to be at this point and
(03:40):
have a record where you you are, you know, twenty
six games above five hundred against the spread, that is, Yeah,
it's gotta be. I can't remember a year where I
was that far up at this particular point. Anyway, al Right,
first up, Carolina at Tampa Bay. It's in London. This
is an NFL Network game. It starts at nine in
(04:00):
the East, but for those of us that live in
the West, six thirty in the morning, which means I
will not be watching a second of this game. Uh.
The NFL care so little about this. They're having Rich
Eyes and Kurt Warner and Steve Mariushi called the game
with Michael Irvin. Uh. It's on on NFL Network at
six in the morning. The game open to pick him now.
Carolina is a two and a half, so it's essentially
(04:23):
a neutral site game. The big games being played at
Tottenham's Hotspur Stadium in London, if that does anything for you.
The weather calls for rain showers and sixty two degrees
fahrenheit at kickoff. I'm gonna take Carolina in this game,
and I'll tell you why. Number one after this signature
win over the Rams, the Buccaneers. They came tumbling back
(04:47):
to reality the last week against the New Orleans says.
Now they are in another divisional Donnie Brook against Carolina.
Both these teams will be on vacation next week after
they come back from and so they're both looking at
a bye week, all right. This will be a rematch
of week two. And Tampa Bay won that game. It
was ugly. That was a Cam Newton special fourteen and
(05:11):
if you watch that game, Cam Newton was the reason
the Panthers lost. So you love Carolina in a revenge spot.
And now they have a legit quarterback as well, which
is another reason to give you the daily double here
to like the Carolina Panthers. And after losing the first
two games that year with Cam Newton, Carolina now has
(05:32):
reeled off three straight victories, all of them under the
tutelage of Kyle Allen at quarterback. And he is just
the third Carolina quarterback all time to win each of
his first three NFL starts. The other ones to do it,
you know who they are. I'm gonna say. I'm gonna
say Carrie Collins and Jake Delone what half right? Jake
(05:53):
delm is correct. The other one is now a blowhard
on l A radio. Rodney Pete, how about that. That's
a long time ago. Man. They're gonna stay like Steve
Burline or something like that. Well, we could throw him
in there, but this Kyle Allen, he's he's not just
along for the ride here. He's not sitting in the
back of the bus. He's in the front of the bus.
(06:14):
Allen is fourth in the entire NFL and quarterback rating.
And I expect this to be a close game. Most
divisional games are closed. But the key here's I'm gonna
put my money on Christian McCaffrey and defected. Up until
this point, Kyle Allen, knock on wood has not thrown interception.
Panthers will pull away late Panthers thirty four bucks, twenty four.
(06:38):
I don't know what the hell you just knocked on,
but it wasn't would anyways, Penny's going with the Compenny
is coming with the Panthers as well. I can't afford
real woods, so it's a fake. Alright, alright, next up,
don't judge me. Be sure to catch live editions of
The Ben Maller Show weekdays at two am Eastern eleven
pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I Heart Radio.
(07:00):
Don't judge all right? Cincinnati oh in five at Baltimore
three and two. It is a CBS game with Kevin
Harlan and Rich Gannon. The Ravens opened up an eight
and a half point favorite. They are favorite by eleven
and a half. It's gonna be partly sunny, sixties six
degrees at kickoff at m n T Bank Stadium in
(07:22):
Donald Trump's favorite city of Baltimore, Maryland. I am gonna
take Cincinnati, and I don't love doing this, but you
have to do it. I have to stick to my
principles as a gambler, and so I'm gonna take Cincinnati.
But first of all, it is always risky to bet
on bad teams. However, if you do this a lot,
there is value. These are the orphans of the NFL.
(07:44):
You want to be on the side of the book.
You No one's gonna bet on the Cincinnati Bengals. Why
would you? But this is actually a good spot for
the Bankers. Why the Ravens are coming off an overtime
game against an arch rival in their in their division, Pittsburgh,
and they have to take on the Seahawks next week.
So this is what's known as yep sandwich game, right
(08:04):
this is now it's a divisional game, but it's still
a sandwich game because you had a key divisional game
with Pittsburgh, hard fought overtime game. You got a showcase
game against the Seahawks next week, and nobody bets on
the Bengals. Nobody gets up for Cincinnati. The Bengals and
Ravens have actually split forty six meetings all time, and
the Bengals, as miserable as they've been, have one two
(08:27):
of the last three meetings, eight to the last eleven.
I know it's a different Bengal team. They're they're terrible.
I get that, but I'm on the side of Cincinnati.
And and secondly, the other thing here's quietly Lamar Jackson
has regressed. All that hoop law hand him the m
v P after two weeks, that's calmed down. Last two weeks,
Lamar Jackson's the twenty seventh ranked quarterback in the NFL.
(08:49):
The last four weeks, Lamar Jackson's the twenty ninth ranked
quarterback in the NFL. So life is just really that
first game against Miami that he was lighting the world
on fire. Uh, and and he's come back crashing down
to earth. And so now now he obviously has the
running ability and the Bengals are a sloppy tackling team,
(09:10):
which does give me a little plause here, like Lamar
Jackson could run for a hundred and seventy yards in
this game and and kill you. Um but Cincinnati, Uh,
they have been, next to the Dolphins, the worst team
in football because they have only led for a little
over fifty one minutes of game time, second lowest in
the NFL. You know how many minutes the Miami Dolphins
(09:31):
have had the lead. I'm gonna say four minutes, close
less than four minutes, three minutes and forty seven seconds
heading into Week six. That is that is craziness. That
assuming that the Bengals actually put in an honest effort
guest gun, which is a big assumption, right, I mean
it's a big assumption. Uh. You know, I would think
(09:53):
that Andy Dalton he's fine in non prime time games.
And the Ravens past defense is not as good as advertised,
So it behooves one to bet on the Bengals. You
gotta cover your eyes here, close your mouth. The whole
thing and take the Bengals to cover Ravens twenty four
(10:15):
Bengals seventeen. I mean it's like you're drinking pepto every
time you take a bad team. Penny's going with the Ravens.
You've done this the last three or four weeks. You
started off with Miami and Cincinnati in weeks one and two. Well,
Cincinnati did cover a week one dummy. They covered against Seattle.
That wasn't a bad bet, okay. And the Redskins, yeah,
(10:38):
I have one money with the Redskins Dolphins, Dolphins, No,
but the Redskins against Philly they cut also dangerous. Such
a hater, man, I just do such a hitter. Why
can't why why can't I get a Bennett to work
with me, a real cheerleader. That could be arranged. We
got plenty of listeners on the streets. Be sure to
(10:58):
catch live editions The Ben Maller Show weekdays at two
am Eastern Pacific. Wow. Alright, next up Seattle at Cleveland
and it is on Fox, and we've got Chris Myers,
my former colleague, our former colleague with Darryl Moose Johnston. There.
The Browns opened up a two and a half point favorite.
Then everyone saw them play Monday night football and to
(11:22):
Seattle is now a two point favorite. Last I saw here,
And this is at First Energy Stadium in Cleveland, not
corporately named at all. Partly sunny and a mild tepid degrees.
That is beautiful weather for Cleveland. Just wait another month
or two and see what the weather is like. But
the pick is in, and I am gonna take. Oh boy,
(11:46):
you're gonna You're gonna give me ship for this. I'm
taking the Cleveland Browns. I'm taking the Cleveland Browns here. Uh.
And I'll tell you why. Russell Wilson has been wonderful,
but more importantly, he's been lucky, and luck doesn't normally continue. Uh.
The Seattle has stolen two games by Mike can I
already mentioned the Bengal game Week one, where Cincinnati had
(12:07):
over two hundred more yards of offense and and they
somehow managed to lose that at the end. And then
you've got the Legatron missed field goal. In other words,
imagine what the public perception of Seattle would be if,
instead of having that shining for and one record, the
Seahawks had a two and three record, which is what
(12:29):
their record would be had those games gone the other way.
And I don't know if some butts were candy and
nuts at bet Christmas every day, but I mean you
gotta factor that in here, and this would be a
tremendous value play. And the way I look at that,
those are essentially losses for me, for for Seattle in
those two games here. So the public is also loading
(12:50):
up in Seattle. You love to bet against the public
when they load up on these teams. Now, part the
Baker Mayfield is the bottom of the barrel, whatever is
behind your toilet. Uh he is. That is how he
is doing. He's not even a run of the mill quarterback,
all right. He is pouring bleach down his throat every
time he plays here, and in most of these games
(13:11):
he has a dreadful sixty eight point five pass a.
Ready to put that in perspective, only Luke Falk and
Josh Rosen have been worse from the Jets and Dolphins, respectively.
It really is a reached critical mass here for Mayfield.
The contrast this week is stunning. Russell Wilson has been
the top rated quarterback this season. The Browns they're coming
(13:35):
off a bye. Uh, They're They've also got the bye
week next week, I should say, so there is some
question about how focused they're getting. Sometimes, you know, the
day before school ends or a vacation, you're not. You're
just kind of going through the motions and all that.
But all that said, you bet on Cleveland in this
spot because when the opposing team has little pass rush,
(13:58):
Baker Mayfield will do well. The Ravens had no pastures.
Now seele has got some big names on defense, but
they have not been a top notch team getting to
the quarterback. So a lot of chubble love love running
the ball for the Brownies here home field and all that,
and I will take Cleveland Browns. They'll win the game
(14:18):
out white in a surprise, a stunner and they say
the Browns are back. They'll finally throw the ball at
Odell Beckham. Browns Seahawks twenty one bounce back looking for
their first home win of the season. Penny's also going
with the Browns. Uh, interesting, you were mocking me, and
then the penny agreed. Next a bad team, though they're
not a bad team like my Browns are a bad team.
(14:40):
They are they're playing like I mean, did you see
the game against the forty. They got punched in the
face repeatedly. I mean like they look like the Bengals.
They don't want to play there. Ridiculous. What's your jokes anyway?
All right, moving on, Fox Sports Radio has the best
sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our
shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com and within the
(15:01):
I Heart Radio app search f s R to listen live.
Let's get trivial. You ready to get less trivial? Let's
get all right? Which quarterback leads the NFL with six
miscommunications with his receivers? So the most disconnect between the quarterback? Now,
this according to the advanced statistics of the NFL. So
I don't know if I believe this or not. How
(15:22):
do they judge when a miscommunication is But they say
this quarterback has had six. That is the most of
any one quarterback in the NFL. We'll give me the
answer coming up in a couple of minutes. Next up,
this is one of the showcase games this weekend for
me Houston three and two at Cansa City four and one.
It is on CBS with Iron Eagle and Dan Fouts.
(15:44):
The Chiefs opened up an eight and a half point favorite,
but the public is flocking to Houston. They can't bet
on them enough. Give me, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme,
gimme the Texans. They're all saying, Uh. The forecast at
Arrowhead sunny fifty six degrees at kickoff, with beautiful barbecue
(16:05):
smells in the air. Oh God, what a fine city.
I love Kansas City, one of my favorite cities. Just
the barbecue people are nice too. All right, a couple
of things. I'm gonna take the Chiefs here. I'll tell
you why. Now, who are the real Houston Texans? Betting
on the Texans is a crapshoot. Last game against the
morbid Falcons team, the Texans had ten plays of twenty
(16:26):
or more yards. That's the most in their franchisees history.
But a lot of that was a byproduct of Atlanta
not being interested, right, and it's just kind of going
through the motions and all that stuff, and that's sound
of their playbook there. The Falcons no defensive intensity and
Deshaun Watson had a record breaking day and we will
(16:48):
give him that, but he's like a human yo Yo,
this guy against the lingering and banged up Chiefs defense,
you figure he's gonna play well. But he struggled mightily
against Jacksonville, which does not have a top notch defense.
I also had problems against the Carolina Panthers. Deshaun Watson
(17:09):
did and in the second The big part of this
is we need Patrick Mahomes I do to snap out
of the funk. Mr Automatica has not been Mr Automatica
in recent games. She said, A couple of dots. You say,
the law of averages. He was due for that, but
against the Lions and the Colts, not nearly the super
nova the force multiplier that he has been so far.
(17:32):
And the excuse band is like, well, let's strike up
the band. He's hurt blah blah blah blah blah blah.
The last two weeks, Mahomes is the twenty night quarterback
in the NFL twenty that's your m v P. The
Chiefs have a short week. This is the one thing
that scares me about Kansas City have a short week.
They played Denver in four days after this game, which
is not the ideal set up. Nevertheless, you like the
(17:54):
hungry team coming off a loss that's Kansas City suffering defeat,
the agony of defeat for the first time. So like
a boomerang, Kansas City comes back around. They ain't losing
back to back games. This will be a shootout. But
I'm gonna take Patrick Mahomes and his weaponry Chiefs thirty
seven Texans thirty one plus Kids City. He's getting some
(18:16):
guys back. You just hate DeShawn Watson, so the penny
is gone with the Texans that hates the right emotion.
You are disgusted with Deshaun Watson, like to point out
that he's over rated, over rated. I'm surprised you didn't
call it Deshaun Watson that stuff in the back of
(18:37):
your toilet. And that's how much disgusted and anks you
have for a guy like him. I know you love him.
You're a big jock snifference, you're a fanboy. I get
it tough to work with a guy like me. I
crucify everyone. You know how I am New Orleans four
and one at Jacksonville. How about them Jags? You say,
how about them Jags? Jacksonville losing last week to the
(19:01):
Carolina Panthers, so they have a two and three record
now after that performance the two and three record. I
am going to this game's on CBS. By the way,
Greg Gumbel and Trent Green. The Jags opened a one
and app point favorite their favorite by one. It's gonna
be mostly sunny and hot, eighty three degrees. That kick
(19:26):
off at t I A a bank field, whatever that is.
That's the place in Jacksonville with the pool. I'm gonna
take the jackson I'm I'm I'm gonna take Gardner, Minshew
and and coming here now. First of all, listen, Teddy Bridgewater,
I look like a complete donkey. I did a monologue
about how the Saints were in trouble with Bridgewater and
on it. I really believe that he has been much
(19:46):
better than anticipating is three and all as a starter
this year, he's completed at least sevent of his passes
in a remedial passing game that the Ravens or the
Saints have been running. Here, he's the first Saints quarterback
and history to have three starts to win his first
three starts while completing sevent his passes. So this is
historic start. But it is a dumb down playbook. This
(20:08):
is very few exotic plays. Hey it's working right, stupid
it don't fix it. It's working. I get it, But
is that gonna work this week? Just because it's worked
in past weeks doesn't mean it's gonna work this week.
It is a road game. Uh. Secondly, the Jags are
looking to bounce back. Remember we like the team's coming
off a loss to bounce back late loss to Carolina
last week. Now, one thing that has been reliable is
(20:32):
Gardner Minshew the second. He has a thousand and four
passing yards and no interceptions in his first four career starts. Now,
to put that in perspective, we use this the other
night on the radio show. But Gardner Minshew now joining
Dak Prescott as the only other quarterback in NFL history
(20:52):
that at least a thousand yards and no interceptions in
his first four career starts. He's been that good. Now,
I picked an off week from the Saints just a
feeling I have here. It's have a hunch, better bunch.
I love the unique Gardner Minshew Minshew mania and all
that with the guts and the guile. Very accurate. The
(21:13):
most important skill is accuracy for a quarterback. And I
also have Leonard for net as well, a top notch
running back at least have been the top running back
in the second half of games, mainly because of that
Bronco game. Uh. In the NFL, Jacksonville will win this game,
Jaguars twenty four Saints A penny likes the stash as well.
(21:35):
Go with the Jags, all right? Next up Philadelphia Philly?
At who uh that would be? They would be the Minnesotavice. Actually,
before we get that, have I paid off the I
don't think I've paid off these. That's a bad job
by mean. All right, let's get trivial. Uh. So, the
question was which quarterback leads in the NFL with six
(21:57):
misscommunications with his receivers? Go ahead again. At first I
thought this question was based off of Deshaun Watson, But
after further review, I'm gonna say it is Captain Kirk Cousins.
Not a bad guess. It's not DeShawn Watson. It's not
Kirk Cousins, Believe it or not. According to the advanced
NFL statistics, it is Patty Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes of Kansas
(22:20):
City has had six six misscommunications with his receivers and
followed by Andy Dalton and Marcus Mariota and even Aaron
Rodgers is on this list. Did you look at that
stat based on on per game or was it just
a body of work. No, it's not it's not per game.
I believe it's told which see I agree with you.
(22:42):
I looked at that. I said that seems pretty low.
I think that everyone would have miscommunications more than six.
You know, has Josh Rosen? You think Rosen would be
up there. He looks like he has no idea what
his doesn't look like he knows who his receivers are.
It looks like the receivers are running one playbook and
he's finding the other playbook. It's it's pretty wild, all right.
(23:06):
Next up Philadelphia. As I said at Minnesota three and
two two three and two versus three and two on
Fox with our friend Malley Militia man, Kenny Albert, friend
of the show, and Charles Davis, great guy. I love
Charles Davis, the voice of Mad. We used to have
him on all the time when I did daytime radio
on the weekends. So the Vikings opened up a three
point favorite. They are currently favored by three. Now it's
(23:30):
gonna be cloudy and forty degrees that kickoff outside the stadium,
but inside US Bank Stadium, it will be fine. Uh,
it'll it'll be perfectly fine. There nothing nothing to worry
about here. The pick is in. I'm gonna take the
Minnesota Vikings in this game. I'm gonna take a swing
with Minnesota. A couple of reasons. Why all right? Which now,
obviously which Kirk Cousins is gonna show up? He was
(23:51):
back playing like a guy with surgical precision last week
against the Giants. In fact, he was so good he
got a presidential congratulatory phone call from press and Donald Trump.
You see that, guest, When did it happened? Trump called
Kirk Cousins on Sunday after his game against the Giants
to congratulate him on the win. You're gonna piss off
(24:13):
a lot of your listeners. Why you mentioned Trump? People
get triggered. Well, I know there's the snowflakes, don't like.
I think that's fascinating, man, because like, just like it's
a regular season game, like Trump. Apparently Cousins golf with
Trump a while ago, and so they're they're they're boys
A little big. I mean still, I remember when I
(24:37):
was a kid, it was like a big thing. If
you won the Super Bowl or the World Series, the
president would call and talk to the coach and say
good job by you, and all this stuff was a
tradition in America. I stopped years ago. But a regular
season game. Well, the good news here for Kirk Cousins
is why the Eagles are a winning team, which is
a problem. Philadelphia is also twenty seven in the NFL
(24:58):
and past defense, which you figure bode well for the
Vikings offensively. Now that said the Eagles because became the
first team with ten sacks and two defensive touchdowns in
a single game in NFL history, just last week. But
there's an asterisk next to that. You know why there's
an asterisk that because they played the Jets and Luke Folks.
(25:20):
So it wasn't like a real It was like playing
the j V. You know, you run up to score.
It was a money, money game earlier in the year
in college football. Um. Now, part be my main reason
to like Minnesota be on that side. Here is the
matchup the mental side of gambling, which we often bring up.
I bring this up. I believe in this this mojoe.
Philadelphia has a matchup next week against the Cowboys, and
(25:42):
if you don't know anything about the Eagle franchise. This
is a massively important game. The Eagle Cowboy rivalry is insane, right.
The people of Philadelphia, the whole city, the whole community,
and it's big for the players also, and that that's
the only other threat to Philadelphia in the NFC East.
The Giants are a joke, the Redskins are an embarrassment.
(26:03):
So it's really the Cowboys are Eagles. Is a two
horse race in that division. So what does that mean?
That means that that makes this game a peek a
boo game, right, peek a boot you get caught looking
ahead and surprise. Uh. Plus, the Eagles are the popular
pick by popular people in Joe public. I like betting
on the side of the bookie, I like betting against
(26:25):
the public. There's a lot of green on green here.
Financially your toss in Dalwin Cook, who has seven hundred
and forty two scrimmage yard through five games, the second
most by a Viking through five games since Adrian Peterson
in his MVP year back in the day. And now
Philadelphia has got a good run defense, but they played
(26:47):
some teams that don't run the ball that well at all.
I believe the Vikings will have a feel good week.
A surprise, Philly gets caught peeking ahead. Vikings thirty Eagles
twenty three. That number of three penny likes Philadelphia on
the road. All right, there you go, enjoy Philadelphia. Next
(27:09):
up Washington, oh In five at Miami O and four's
game should not be televised. It's on Fox, so you
better not watch who is who's calling this game? Guest,
I'm gonna say, for for a million dollars, is it
Dick Stockton, No, shocker of shockers, It's not Dick Stockton.
(27:31):
I was I. I thought the same thing. Sam Rosen,
Sam Roses gonna call this game. Poor Sam Rosen with
what I know, he's getting pin a lot of money
with Ronde Barber No all a real quick bet. I
know that obviously this is a a pick up game
for you in terms of betting and whatnot. But a
a sports book in Las Vegas actually sends us out
(27:55):
weekly lines for games and prop bets, and at the
time'll have this game. It's called the Ineptitude Bowl, that
is what it is. It says, well, the Redskins or
Dolphins game will end in a tie, and there's actually
a bet that you can make plus twelve hundred for Yes,
it'll end in tie, Ma'll end with one team winning it. Yeah, yeah,
(28:16):
well I would call it the suck ball because they
both suck. They are terrible. Yeah, I can't believe you
captain game. Yeah all right, well, the Redskins. There's money
to be made here. You know, you can win just
as much money betting on this game as you can't
betting on the prime time games Miami. Uh. As a
(28:38):
home team coming off a bye week, the Redskins are
They opened up a six and a half point favorite.
Somehow the public is betting on the Dolphins, and the
Redskins are down to a three and a half point
favorite at hard Rock Stadium. The forecast calls for partly
sunny eighty four degrees, typical Miami weather this time of
the year. And I'm gonna take the red Skins. Uh
(29:00):
ca'n on the Redskins. Now, a couple of things here.
I almost spent a lot of time on this, But
number one, I did see the interim coach. Now, Bill
Callaghan is gonna make his debut on the sidelines. Jay
Gruden was giving the given the boat kick to the curb,
thrown overboard, whatever you want to say. Callaghan has cut
out music in practice. He has attempted to lay down
(29:24):
the lumber to get this Redskins team more focused, doing
some old school coaching techniques. I also saw where case
Keenom is gonna get the ball to start this game.
He's actually the best of the quarterbacks of the Redskins,
which isn't saying much. He's also played better on the
road than he has at home. Miami's defense, I mean
they suck at everything, you know, the Dolphins. I saw
the stat this. I had to look at this three times.
(29:45):
The Dolphins defense are allowing opponents to convert fifty seven
point eight percent of the third down, almost sixty percent
of the time. If you on third down you get
a first down. That is unbelievable. Oh man, all right. Uh. Secondly,
that this isn't both these teams want to lose. I
get that. The franchises, I love. The Redskins fired their coach.
(30:07):
They still it is the suck balls we said. The
Dolphins also get to play the thing of the Dolphins.
They get to play the Jets two times and the Bengals.
So the NFL schedule gods are really making it difficult
for Miami to go oh in sixteen, right, I mean
they would that would be the greatest own sixteen of
all time. If they lose two to the Jets, they
lose to the Bengals and the Redskins. Right, those are
(30:30):
five winnable game and I admit this is a winnable
game for the Dolphins. Uh, But I mean the idea
that you could have any kind of money on the Dolphins,
I I I left that I'm off them after the
first couple of weeks here, Um, Brian Floores and the
Dolphins and Josh Rosen look like they've never played football before, right,
never played not not firing on all cylinders, firing on
(30:53):
no cylinders? Uh? Is the Miami Dolphins here? The Dolphins
have a minus one thirty seven point differ NIEL. That
is the lowest market in NFL history, And somehow people
are still betting on them. The public is loading up.
The public is stupid, The public are idiots. Redskins twenty seven,
Miami sixteen, Hell to the Redskins, Hail to victory. Spend
(31:16):
five minutes of that game. Go with the Redskins as well.
This money will be made guest unbelie. All right, shut up,
don't judge me. The last last part of this we
have the late games, all right, Santa Clara, the Santa
Clara forty Niners at four and oh at the Los
Angeles Rams at three and two. It is on Fox.
(31:38):
And yes, David, our guy, Dick Stockton is calling this game,
which is actually not a bad game. This is not
a bad game. Um. I believe it's because Joe, Joe
Buck and Aikman only work one game this week because
it's not the Fox America's Game of the Week. So
I think that's why Stockton gets to do this game.
But it's stick Stockton and Mark Slavery and the Rams
(32:00):
open a five point favorite. They are favored by three.
I was gonna be at this game, but I assumed
the Dodgers were gonna be in the National League Championship Series,
so I could not go. I had some other things
I do, uh too late now, so I will not
be able to attend this. But the the forecast seventy
seven and mostly sunny in Los Angeles at the College
see him. I'm gonna take the Rams here, uh, and
(32:21):
a couple of reasons why now, First, of all, the
forty Niners are coming off a short week, so you
day less to get ready for this. The Rams have
had extra rest. Remember they last played the last Thursday,
so you've got the fresher team with the Rams that
the game should be a bit of a track meet.
Over the last three weeks, the Rams and Niners are
the NFL's most prolific offensive teams and yards per games.
(32:44):
Santa Clara has a better defense, I'll give you that,
but they have given up over a hundred yards more
per game on the road then at home. And this
is a much bigger game for the Rams to get
some credibility back. Everyone's shipping on him to get some
swagger back and make up for that idiot kicker the
(33:06):
Mr Greg the leg and Legatron blowing it and and
pulling a kershaw at the end of that game in Seattle.
So it's it's the first back to back losses in
the Sean McVeigh here. A secondly, the Niners are they
are getting their toes licked by everyone in the media,
the NFL media elite. Niners are the toast of the NFL.
(33:27):
They have been fond on all over at some point
that does affect your bio rhythms here. Uh And I
know they took the soul out of Baker Mayfield last
week and all that, but this week is more of
an even matchup against what should be a hungry, hungry
dog they Los Angeles Rams here, even though their favorite
my theory is the short week. Also, some key injuries
(33:50):
now starting for the forty niners here. A couple of
you guys, You guys are out. They have five five
guys actually three guys up front on the defensive line
that are are really good. Nick Bosa, d Ford de
Forrest Buckner are are legit um. But Sean McVeigh is
supposed to be the evil genius and all that. I
play a hunch better bunch, as we say, you can
(34:12):
ram it all day, and you can ram it all
night and all night. Are back. You're damn right, Rams
thirty four twenty eight Penny. Also go at the Rams.
There's an extra nugget for you too, Ben. Sean McVeigh
is ten and one as Rams coach with extra time
to prepare, and eight one and one against the spread.
(34:34):
Look at you doing some research. I was just trying to,
you know, add a little something since the Penny was
on fire last week. So wow, all right, well let's
get trivial. You want to get trivia and Mattie Ice.
Matt Ryan has thrown for at least three hundred yards
in three consecutive games, all of them Falcon losses. Only
three quarterbacks have ever done this in four consecutive games.
(34:56):
It's only happened four three. Three guys in the history
of the NFL over four four games have had three yards.
The team has lost every game. Philip rivers In for
the Chargers, Bill Kenny for Kansas City back in the
nineteen eighties eighty three. Who is the third the third
quarterback to pass for at least three hundred yards three
consecutive games and have their team lose all of them?
(35:19):
The answer coming up in a bit. Uh, we'll speaking
of Matt Ryan. The Falcons Atlanta one and four at
Arizona one, three and one. It's on Fox with Tom
Brennaman and Chris Spielman and the Fox box that Rocks
calling this particular game. And what a slowdown this is
Atlanta and Era. This is as bad as the Redskins
(35:39):
in the Dolphins, Man Peu, what stinks? Falcons opened a
two and a half point road favorite. I believed that
number is the same. I've got it here. It's two
and a half. Currently, as we're doing this in real time,
it'll be sunny in eighties six degrees at kickoff outside
State Farm Stadium. I assume everyone be be air conditioning inside.
(36:03):
I'm gonna take the Cardinals here and I'll tell you why.
Atlanta has left an impression in me that they are
just going through the motions like they're not interested, all right,
And and for whatever reason, I don't know if it's
because dan Quinn the coach doesn't rule with a rod
(36:23):
of iron and the players are walking all over him. Um,
but the Cardinals are a bad team, but they they're trying.
They suck, but they're trying. And Atlanta, I don't even
know how much they're trying to check engine light has
come on the dashboard there, No one's no one seems
to be concerned about looking under the hood. Uh. Dan
(36:44):
Quinn is hanging on by his nails, the ends of
his finger nails there. It has been a disaster. The
Falcons have the toxic brew going. They are in a
poor state of repair. Bad at the basics, just like
the simple things in full blocking and tackling. They're bad
at those things, blocking and tackling. Uh Part B here,
(37:05):
this pick is not so much of my confidence in Arizona.
I want to be very clear. I'm not on the
Cardinal bandwagon. They're a bad team. I don't believe Kyler
Murray is all that good. Some people are impressed by
his inflated passing statistics because the Cardinals and most of
these games have been blown out. Uh so, don't lose
sight of that. And and certainly Arizona could certainly lose
(37:30):
this game very easily. But in reality, this selection is
just betting against the Falcon all right, that's it. I'm
just betting against the Falcons. I don't trust them. They're
They're just soft as soft can be. They serve soft,
serve ice cream, that's what they serve up. They get
out work, they get out played. They are sloppy, penalty
field mess. And you're taking a home dog against a
(37:52):
team like that. I'm gonna take the home dog, is
what I'm gonna do. Cardinals forty Falcons thirty eight in
a shootout, Penny loves Kyler Murray in the spot and
go with the Cardinals. Loves Alligator Rosa Loopa of the NFL.
Let's get trivia all the answer I mentioned Mattie Ice
(38:14):
three yards passing three consecutive games, all Atlanta loss. Is.
Only three quarterbacks have ever done this in four straight games.
Philip Rivers in for the old San Diego Chargers, Bill
Kenny for Kansas City in three are two of them?
Who is the third? Mr? Gascon? I'm gonna go with
(38:34):
a former cult and Falcon, Jeff George. Jeff George, that's
not bad. Jeff George put up numbers in games and
the team usually lost, and the wheels were turning, but
they weren't going in the right direction. No, it is not.
He is. Here's a here's a good name from the past.
Match Shop Atlanta Falcon, Houston, Texan. Yeah, he did this
(38:56):
in Houston. Do you know I have my I have
match Shops phone number. You know why? He was a
guest on Fox Sports Radio and uh when he was
the Texans quarterback and he gave me I guess he
wanted to be on again. He wanted that. He liked
the promotion, as I remember. Let me ask you his
name in your phone? Is that Matt Schobers at Mr
(39:17):
Pick six. I don't even know. Well, here's the thing.
Once the number goes on my phone, it's in there
forever my when I die all these nights, like there
are a lot of people and I we should do
this on the other podcast. But like when somebody dies,
I never take their name out. I I don't do that. Yeah,
I was leaving in there. It's like my tribute to them.
Like sometimes I'll see people's names that passed away. I'm like,
(39:39):
I remember that person. I have a fond memory of
that person. So it's my memorial to them. They're in
my phone for life, all right. It's like once you're
in the family, you're in the family for Like how
morbid is that? I know? I Dallas three and two
at the New York Jets oh and four. It's on CBS.
(40:00):
Can you believe that Jim Nance and Tony Romo are
could be doing this game? Yes? I can't. Jets are
supposed to be decent this year, but who knows about
Mono and Adam Gates and all this ship that's going
on with the Jets. Yeah, they are a disaster. The
Cowboys opened a seven point favorite. They are seven and
a half point favorite in this game. But we mostly
(40:22):
cloudy sixties six degrees at kickoff outside of m or
MetLife for US Stadium rather MetLife Stadium there in Jersey.
And you're gonna kick my in the nuts here, Guesscan.
But I gotta do it. I'm gonna spit in the ocean.
I'm gonna take the Jets. I'm going to take the
Jets here. Uh and let me try to explain my
my side? Does let me give my elevator pitch on
(40:44):
why the Jets are the right side. Okay, here's what
I'm doing. Number one. The Cowboys are like a following
comment in the sky. It has been an eye opening
couple of weeks. Now I realized they played better competition.
But Dak Prescott can say we're not in Can's us anymore. Right.
Prescott passed for a career high four hundred sixty three
yards in a blowout loss in garbage time against the
(41:07):
Packers last week, but he was intercepted three times that
match career high, and and Dak Prescott has been shaky here.
He started out wonderfully, and now he's beginning to wet
the bed as the season's gone on. In fact, the
last four weeks, dak Prescott is back to where he's
always been. He's the nineteenth ranked quarterback in the NFL,
(41:28):
which is where I put him in that you know,
seventeen to twenty range, somewhere in that area, maybe fifteen.
When he plays well. The last two weeks against the
Packers and the Saints, Dakota Prescott is the twenty five
rank quarterback in the NFL. So that gives you a
pause in the Cowboys. And to listen, the Jets sock
they're terrible. They should clear the decks. I understand all that, right,
(41:50):
Sell the team down the river. H Adam Gates his
crazy eyes. You don't know what the hell he's doing.
They've they've paid a trip to the dark side. I
get all that, but you're talking about a home team
getting seven a half. Sam Donald's coming back from motto.
It's gonna be his motto game as he bounces back.
This looks too easy. And if something looks too easy
(42:12):
and gambling right, other than the betting against the Dolphins, Uh,
there is no such thing as a sure thing. You
would assume obviously there the perfect pick here would be
the Cowboys, right if they don't steam roll gang green
Heads should roll something is broken. Blah blah blah blah
blah blah blah. How big a mismatches this. The second
(42:33):
half of last week's lost to the Packers, the Cowboys
put up three and forty eight totally yards. That is
one and a half times the total yards the Jets
have managed the last two games. Yourbine, all right, but
that was with Luke falk Uh and Dallas had thirty
two first downs against Green Bay. The Jets have twenty
eight first downs in their last three games combined. But nevertheless,
(42:56):
I expect this to be more of a cat and
mouse situation here. Um not only because of Sam Donald
coming back to some other injured Jets that are gonna
come back. The Cowboys also are in the old peekaboo
situation because they have the Eagles, a blood rival, division rival.
Big game look ahead. Now. I believe the Cowboys will
(43:16):
win this game, but because the Jets are a comedy
of errors, it's a comedy show. But I'm gonna close
my eyes, cover my ears, shut my mouth, predict a
couple of Dak Prescott mistakes here. It's the life of
the Gambler. Cowboys will win. Cowboys twenty four Jets twenty three,
(43:37):
actually twenty I'm penny thinks the Jets get their first
to one of the season. It's going with the New
York Jets. I'm not going that far. I've been drinking.
I'm not. I'm drinking the cool at a little bit.
I'm just putting my toe in the cool word. I'm not.
I'm not going all in. All right, let's keep it going.
We got you can keep this singing and moving in
Tennessee at Denver. It's on CBS. Andrew Catalan and James
(44:00):
Lofton have the call. Game open to pick and Broncos
are a two and a half point favorite. It'll be
sunny in sixty nine degrees at kick off in the
Mile High City at empower Field. That Mile High not
corporately named at all. The pick is in, and the
pick is I'm gonna take Tennessee. No, I don't love
(44:21):
this pick, but these teams to me are very similar
uh teams. First of all, the Broncos picked up their
their maiden victory under their new coach, Vic Fangio against
the Chargers in Los Angeles last week. That was a
nice band aid covering up a wound. That has been
the start of this season. And now some are saying
(44:42):
a sleeping giant has now awoken from hibernation and blah
blah blah blah blah, and the Denver's gonna roll off
a bunch of winds and they popped the seal. I
don't believe. I'm not buying. I don't think this is
a very good team. I think this is a middling team. Now.
To be fair, this is a very winnable game for
never there at home. Tennessee is a up and down team.
(45:04):
Their kaleidoscope team. They're all over the place. I just
don't trust Joe Flacco. Of course, I don't trust the
other quarterback either. The second thing here, Tennessee is a
hard team for me to get a read on because
Marcus Mariota. If you look at just the stats, and
you don't put your eyeballs into this, if you look
at the numbers, Mariota does not turn the ball over. Okay,
his numbers look very impressive, but when you actually watch him,
(45:26):
he's about as tough as cotton candy. Right that the
Titans zig when they're supposed to zag. They zag when
they're supposed to zig. The Titans have turned the ball
over just one time this season, and yet they have
a losing record. I mean, that's that's that's hard to do. Normally,
if you don't turn the ball over, you're just gonna
win most of the time. And they have turned them
(45:47):
all over just once, and yet there's six team in
the Super Bowl era with one or no turnovers through
five games and they have a losing record. We often
preach about how you you try to take into account
a lot of these different factor is and whatnot, like motivations,
scheduling and whatnot, and a lot of that is in
play here. All right, let me explain. So the Broncos
(46:08):
have a look ahead peekaboo game with the Chiefs next week.
That is a their arrivals Kansas City and Denver. That's
a big game for them, divisional game, not a divisional
game this weekend. The key for the Titans. All right,
Cameron Wake, Now, this guy is questionable. We don't know
if he's gonna play or not. That's this is a
crossroads game for me, like Tennessee is at a fork
in the road. Get back to five, go to three
(46:32):
and three. You're not great, You're average at three and three,
but you still got some skin in the game. At
three and three, you still got some skin in the game.
But you lose this game and suddenly you're under five hundred.
You've got the Chargers next week, which is another game
you can lose, and the snowball from Hell starts happening.
(46:53):
So I'm gonna, against my better judgment take Tennessee here
to get back to five and Titans nineteen. Broncos may
have lost two heartbreakers at home, Penny's going with the Broncos,
going with the Then you're a big Bronco fanboy, right,
(47:14):
that's your your deal. I retired from rooting for teams. Uh,
that's a lie after two thousand fourteen. Certainly, we're a
lot of a lot of hats. I see, I mean
I own a lot of hats. You have a lot
of bad team attire from listeners that are giving you
clothes throughout the years, shirts and hats, and yeah, well yeah,
(47:35):
I have I have a nice collection, a nice collection.
All right, let's move on a Sunday night. Wait wait, wait,
are you gonna pay off in one of my bets,
don't you? Or one of my the one of your teasers?
So was that did I have a mother tea? Did you? Oh? No,
I did not. I did the match up thing. That
was the last one I did. Gummy, bad job there
you it's bad. It is a bad jock? Is that boring?
(47:56):
What are you smoking a cigarette over that? The hell
are you doing? What are we doing? Balling out? I mean,
my god? I got some Justin's peanut butter cups. That's
all I got? Oh? Is that right? From Whole Foods.
These costs there's like ten of them inside this bag
from Whole Foods. They cost like seven dollars seven bucks, yeah,
ten for seven for ten Yeah, for Reese's pieces buttercups.
(48:19):
It's pretty much what I got. That's I don't think
that per unit is the that doesn't work out for me.
So this is what I go through. And I work
on your show, like I need to have your listeners
sponsor this show. No, I I want I want to
do this. I want to do these big commercial reads
and all that I bothers me that I need to
do like a sleep number commercials. I need it. I
(48:40):
need to sell something. I feel like we're just doing
this for free. It's but I know there are commercials
in it. But we don't get to read the commercials
and all that stuff. So please contact the I Heart
Media sales department. We will sell the hell out of
your product. There's a lot of people that listen to
this stuff, um, which shocks me. Also, all right, Pittsburgh
one in four at the lh Argers two and three.
(49:01):
It's on NBES see the Peacock Network with Al Michaels
and Chris Collinsworth. Now, the Charges open a five and
a half point favorite. They are a six and a
half point favorite in this spot, six and a point favorite.
I'm gonna I don't like the bet favorites, but I'm
gonna take the Charges here. I just gotta vibe on
this game. Pittsburgh is on. Like their fifth quarterback, someone
(49:24):
named Devlin Hodgers, is the chosen one. Mike Tomlin needs
divine intervention for Pittsburgh. Steelers have lots of forces working
against them. They travel to the West by stage coach. Uh.
They have the bye week after this week, so not
only do you have the West coast travel, but then
you're on vacation. All of these things are reasons to
(49:44):
doubt that this will be a very competitive performance. Now,
the Steelers do have a couple of big studs up front,
t J. Watt and Bud Dupree who will be able
to enjoy that fish Taco offensive line for the Bolts um.
But that's not gonna be a has score. You gotta
move the ball. Secondly, only four teams have been less
successful against UH than than the Steelers moving the ball.
(50:09):
For four teams that have been less successful against than
the Steelers at moving the ball over the last three weeks.
That includes Chicago, Washington, Miami, and the Jets. That's those
are the contemporaries of the Steelers, and that's the competition
for Pittsburgh's offense right now. How bad they've been, you
would think that the Chargers defense, which has also been spotty,
(50:31):
led by Joey Bosa and they've got injuries and all that,
they would be licking their chops going against this Devlin
Hodges guy. And the Chargers are statistically good there eleventh
in yards, but have failed the eyeball test. It's very
similar to the Titans. Titans Marcus Mariot has great stats,
they don't turn the ball over, they lose. Chargers. You
look at the stats, you're like, well, they're not bad.
(50:53):
They're not bad and not a bad team, but yet
you look at their under five hundred. I'm gonna go
out on a limb here. I'm gonna take Philip Rivers
and the Lightning Bolts with a rare comfortable win at
Dignity Health Sports Park there, or it'll be a sixty
seven degrees and kickoff Chargers thirty three, Steelers seventeen. Penny
(51:14):
likes the Bolts as well. All right, I know you're
excited about that last one, Gascon. Let's go to Monday
night football just down the street from my brother who
lives in Appleton, Wisconsin. Because he's an idiot, but he
he wanted to leave l A because it's so expensive
in California, which I don't blame him for, and he
(51:37):
he somehow fell in love with small town Wisconsin. Wow.
And he guy grew up in in l A. I
grew up in the same house I grew up in.
And he lives in Appleton, Wisconsin. And just that's where
the teams stay when they play the Packers in Appleton.
There's no hotels in Green Bay. I'm not I'm not
kidding in Appleton anyway. Detroit to one and one at
(51:57):
Green Bay four and one. This is a booger special
Booker McFarland in the broadcast booth with Joe test a tour.
You kind of remind me of Joe Testing. No way,
not even close. Not even close. Man, is that offensive?
When well, I just I think he's very um, I
think it's very polite on a lot of calls. And
(52:19):
I think he puts a lot of hot fudge on
top of the ice cream. I'll just say that much. Yeah,
I would put him in the hard old category. I think. Yeah,
but you gotta be careful. You know, you might be
working with him some day. He's gonna be careful about
that anyway. Alright, Uh, we'll elbow in on this game.
Packers opened a five and a half point favorite. They
(52:40):
are a four point favorite right now, and the weather
is gonna be mostly cloudy forty five degrees at kickoff,
starting a little bit at lambeau Field. The pick is in.
I'm gonna take the Lions here. I'm gonna take the
Lions in this game. I'll tell you why. Hey, this
is a let down spot for Green Bay. They're coming
off a high profile game America's Game of the Week
(53:01):
last week against the Cowboys, and it very convincing. They
ran over Dallas. Now it is back to the dull
grums of the NFL schedule. Nobody gets up for the lines,
even though it's a divisional opponent. Aaron Rodgers has also
been pretty average, you know, the last four weeks, Rogers
of the seventeen best passer in the NFL, seventeenth hee's average.
(53:21):
How the Packers have been able to run the ball,
so it hasn't really mattered that much, but the Packers
of the toast of the NFL. Also, everyone's celebrating that
win over Dallas and just fawning all over the Cowboys.
I like to bet against teams where everyone's kissing their
ass all week, and you can move the ball against
that Green Bay defense, you can get some yards. The
Dallas certainly did that in the second half last week.
(53:42):
And and Detroit is a fly under the radar team
under Matt Patricia. They've been the little engine that could
so far left for dead. They're supposed to be terrible
and garbage and all that stuff. Haven't been that way yet.
They've overachieved, played the Chiefs tough, beat Philly, uh and
they continue to chuggle long at a study pace. Everyone
seems to be waiting for all that to grind to
(54:03):
a halt. Here. Matthew Staffords actually played very well against
the green Bay Packers, in fact, historically good. I guess
the green Bay Packers over his last few games here
and and so I know the public loves green Bay.
I get that. But the natural tendency for the Lions
is to say, well, they can't win at Lambau, they
can't keep the game closed. I say, no, I'm gonna
(54:24):
take the Packers to win, but I believe this will
be a field goal game. I'll take the four points,
Packers twenty six, Lions twenty three, the opposite of the
penny they're going with the green Bay Packers. Man, good luck.
You know green Bay ranks twenty seven in the NFL
in conversions on third down. That's not good. It's not
(54:45):
if converted thirty point five cent on on third down.
So that's uh. That's by the way, that Matthew Stafford's
that you want the Matthew Staffords that all right. He
has thrown two or more touchdown passes in nine straight
eight matchups with green Bay, dating back only one player.
(55:06):
I use this on the radio show the other night.
Only one player has gone ten consecutive games with two
or more touchdowns against the single opponent. You know who
that is. I'm gonna say Andrew Luck against the Tennessee Titans.
Uh No, you gotta go back to the nineties Dan
Marino for the Miami Dolphins against the Jets. He went
(55:28):
ten consecutive games with two or more touchdown passes against
the the Jets. They have not had a good quarterback
since him as unbelievable. Yeah, it is pretty wild, all right, listen,
I hope yet good luck. May you win a lot
of money. If you win a lot of money, remember
the podcast. If you lose a lot of money, it's
not my fault. I have plausible then ability. Uh and
all that. And I have a great again, and try
(55:49):
the other partition. This is the hard old podcast, gast on.
But the other one we just played grab bass, right,
that's right. When we just go for around. We do
guy talk radio, barely talk about sports, uh do entertainment, conversation,
studies and emails and all that stuff. Anyway, have a
great week and we'll be back in the Magic Radio
Box on Fox Sunday in the Monday two am in
the east and one am in the west, and enjoy
(56:12):
and be safe. Enjoy your week,
Host
Ben Maller
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