January 17, 2020 • 32 mins
A sad, dreadful, pitiful performance last weekend against the Penny has Ben searching for answers. What did he find? Props, props, and more props! Jump on the exotic train with Ben as he spins his wheel with a handful of prop bets before he dips his toes into the deep end of the pool with the AFC and NFC Championship games. The season comes to a close in a couple of weeks so let's end this on a high note!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Here you go. I was born ready. Oh Jesus, there
we go. Ah see, you're not even ready, man, What
the fuck? Welcome players, You're welcome. It's time now penny
versus the penny that it is as this the championship
(00:25):
weekend in the NFL and today, Hey, we're back on
the amazing podcast The Fifth Hour with Ben Mallard eight
podcast dedicated. This entire podcast dedityated to two games. Two games, I,
of course the piro of many, and then we have
the coin represented by or the penny here David Gascon
(00:47):
affectionately known on Social pro effectually known on social media
is David Gagon and bro verk Satti there and so
since we only have two games, gast and I had
a brilliant idea here to look at some of the
other gambling news I've prop bets, you know, kill some
more time. Why not before we actually get to handicapping
(01:09):
the championship games this weekend. Exotics says they would call it.
You feel good about that? Uh? Well, I know that
some prop bets are money making opportunities. Others are a
sucker's place. You have to pick and shoes. You have
to be selective on what you do. But before we
get to those, even did you see the sports books
in New Jersey? The numbers came out this week that
(01:32):
the books in Jersey one almost three hundred million dollars
in twenty nineteen. They're doing the accounting. The bean counters
are taking over and they they really are the penny
that is that is amazing. Now is that just NFL
action or is that including college football as well? That
(01:53):
includes everything. That's the entire handle for the sports books
and the amazing. I was talking to some in Vegas
that I noticed in the gambling business, and they were
telling me that it's you know, it's not even close
that even though everyone and I grew up with Vegas
being the gambling mecca of the world, because there's so
many more people that are close right there in the
(02:13):
New York, New Jersey metropolitan area, the Tri state area
also with Connecticut over there and whatnot, and and uh,
they will be the biggest gambling state, you know, until
New York adds sports gambling, which with their politicians, god
knows when that's gonna be. But New Jersey, Uh, there
was four point five billion uh that was bet in
(02:33):
in last season. Most of it was on football is
almost almost a billion dollars on football. Basketball was actually
a little bit, just a little bit behind that, and
then baseball was further down by like a couple hundred million, uh.
And a lot of people bet parlays, a lot of
like the they've noticed here that people love because like
(02:54):
playing a lottery ticket, but you have to get all
three ride or you know, two or three or whatever
it is. But yeah, it's unfortunate too because and I
don't know how you feel about this, and correct me
if I'm wrong, but I think we were now in
the date that the day and age we're gambling is
much like dating. It's all online, and there's a novelty
(03:16):
that going out and meeting a woman grabbing a drink,
you know, engaging and then obviously asking her out. Like
there's something to me that's great about when you drive
to Vegas and you know this, like making the commute
to Vegas and then you see those towering lights from
the lux Or and you're like, I'm almost in Sin City, baby,
(03:37):
And then it's an opportunity to gamble a little bit.
You get your cops, you get some meals, you get
some drinks, and lay down some cash but everything now
is just so automated digitally that you just you forget
what you're doing and you just let things rip at
any given time. I don't know you feel about it,
but that's how I feel now with gambling these days.
Oh so you don't do online dating? Is that you
don't do that either? No, you don't know. Don't you know?
(03:59):
I don't know. It's just for me personally. You feel
like you you laid you out your particulars. It's like
a menu I don't want to have. I love the research, right,
It's like exactly what we do in this profession. It's
the research. It's it's getting to know somebody. It's getting
to find out who they're about, what they do, all
those things, and and having it right before your fingertips
(04:21):
just by you know, putting you know a location that
you have in any particulars like race, religion, hair color,
all that stuff I'm not down for. I love I
love it. I love going to Vegas for the sheer
purpose to throw down some coin. Of course, I'm I'm
big into crabs in blackjack. But of course, when you
when you look at the sports side of things, going
to the Venetian and going to Lagasse Stadium and they
(04:43):
give you they give you comps, they give you drink tickets,
they give you other comps. Yeah. Yeah, because you know
you're gonna lose your money. I mean, I I go.
I love Vegas too, I mean I go all the time.
But I you know what you are. You're like a
horse and buggy guy. You're the guy when the automobile
came around. So you know what, I don't need to
I'm an old school guy. I like to smell the
feces of the horse's ass when I'm riding on the horse.
(05:05):
I like to enjoy that. Uh, you're that guy. You're
the horse and buggy guest. Gun. You're the guy when
the microwave came out and said no, I'd rather spend
more time staring at the stove. You're that guy. You're
you are today's modern day version of a tesla. Right.
You don't want to drive. You want some automated vehicle
to maneuver and put you around to wherever you're at,
whether it's in Malibu or a Thousand Oaks, or or Calabasas.
(05:28):
And me, I prefer to cruise of my sixty nine
Mustang and kind of get toward you to be at
my own pace. I appreciate that there's something refined about
what I do and gambling, and if you know, you'd
find you're I like that you you managed to pat
yourself on the back when because you know I won't
and nobody else will, only you will do all right.
(05:49):
So let's get to some of these prop bets. Dumb, dumb, Okay,
you can reminisce about the glory days. Go down memory lane,
the good old days when when the Mob ruled Vegas.
That did a good job. In when the Mob controlled Vegas.
You had so many more freebees. Everything was cheaper, you can,
you got free parking. We gotta get the mob back
into control of Vegas. That's what we got. Maybe the
(06:10):
Mexican drug cartels can take over Vegas and everything will
be free. You've got rooms comped, you got food comp do,
you got nights outcom for alcohol and dining, the whole
smash and now and now you're gonna spend hours and
hours and hours in there, and you have a camera
above you that rates you on your plates. Bullshit. Be
sure to catch live editions of The Ben Maller Show
(06:30):
weekdays at two am Eastern eleven pm Pacific on Fox
Sports Radio and the I Heart Radio app. No I listen,
I I agree with you. And plus, you know you
have to have that little card, the players Club card
that keeps track of everything. The police state has to
keep track. And you know, I have friends that work
at some of the casinos in Vegas, and you know,
I'm not gonna lie. I mean, I've gotten some freebees
over the years. Um, just you know whatever. But it's
(06:54):
not as easy as it used to be. It's not
as easy. You can't just say, hey, get Mallard a room. No,
you gotta you know, it's a whole like loop hoops,
you gotta jump through. Anyway, some of the prop bets
for this weekend, we're gonna get into these problems. But
do you waste so much? What if we're gonna get
into the prop bets for this week, why don't we
go back to last week to see how you did?
I mean, is not fair to the audience that well, though,
(07:16):
we're gonna do that before we pick the games. If
we have time, we might not have time because you
have an event you have to go to, and so
we're unlimited time here, and so we must get to this.
But you hear the profits. So Derrick Henry, who's been
the super nova for Tennessee, is the profit is rushing
yards for Derrick Henry over a hundred eighty yards? Will
(07:39):
Henry run for over a hundred eighty yards? If you
say no, that is minus one thousand, minus one thousand
on that. If you say yes, it's plus five hundred.
So the only way Tennessee can win this game plausibly
is for Henry to go to about a d eighty yards.
But I'm not gonna you would have to be a
(08:01):
fool to say yes on that, although you get better
better odds. Obviously, I am gonna say that he does
not get over a hundred yards, So I'm gonna mark
me down for no on that particular prop. Chock mallard
minus one thousand. Okay, Now, is that the penny gonna
pick this? Or you? Maybe you can pick this guest
on that way? Oh, the penny is gonna How goody
(08:23):
the penny's gonna pick? How exciting is it? This? Look
up and she says, Derrick Henry, yes, plus five hundred,
put him down, plus five hundred. Put it on the board. Yeah,
don't be stealing my material. Okay, I already stole it
from Hot Carrolson. You don't need to steal it from
me now. But I am not gonna gonna take the
as I said, I'm not gonna say he's gonna go
(08:44):
for over a hundred I think you have a hundred
and fifty five yards. How about that, Ryan Tannehill, here's
a good one. Will he throw for under a hundred
yards and then win and Tennessee win the game? Now,
this has been a tradition here late for the Titans.
In these playoff games. Tannehill is not used much at all.
He's just kind of hanging around, hanging around, uh and
(09:07):
all that. Uh So, no is minus three thousand and
if you're not a gambler, that implies a ninety six
percent chance chance almost ninety seven percent, that that this
will will not happen, that that this is not gonna happen.
I would throw a couple of bucks down on yes,
(09:29):
because I think if Tannehill goes over a hundred yards passing,
Tennessee likely will not be able to win the game,
meaning he will f this game up. He will throw
interceptions and be a disaster. But um, I'm not gonna
bet on yes, because that's a sucker's play. Even at
plus fifteen hundred, I mean hundred yards you can get
in a half or a quarter, you know, a decent quarterback.
(09:52):
But I'm gonna take no Ones. I'm again, I'm gonna
go no. I'm gonna go chalk minus three thousand on Tanning.
Penny will agree with you on that one, minus three
thousand on No. Alright, So the same concept on this prop,
bet on Benny versus the penny, which will be higher
Ryan Tannehill's passing yards or Derrick Henry's rushing yards. That
(10:13):
is a good one, right, Tannehill's minus three fifty and
Henry because you obviously is easier to get passing yards. Uh,
Derrick Henry's plus two five. I'm gonna take Henry on this.
I'm gonna take Henry. Tennessee is not gonna change what
they've done. Mike Rabel is not going to change the
game plan here. You don't reinvent the wheel. It's working.
(10:33):
It's just human conditions. So I'm going with Henry. Henry
is gonna have a hundred and fifty five something yards
and they're just gonna play keep away. And you know
a few short passes, but there they'll mix the running
backs up. So I'll take Henry it plus plus two five.
The odds should actually be little higher than that. But
Penny is going the other way with Tannehill. This isn't
(10:55):
Peyton Manning two thousand fifteen. He can throw the ball
down the field. They don't throw He's attempt twenty nine
passes in two games. That's just because of how the
defense is playing them in the first couple of rounds.
And you think they're gonna change it in this game,
of course, not pcent. All right, what are some of
the other Most of these props are about the Tennessee
Kansas City game. Let's see, let me just find another
(11:16):
good one. Well, Kansas City score fifty or more points?
No is minus a thousand, plus is plus five hundred
on yes? Rather yes this plus five? Well, no, they're
not gonna score fifty points in this game. Uh, not
gonna happen. That's very rare. Once in a blue moon
does that happen. So I will take no on Kansas
(11:37):
City scoring fifty points or more. Penny is an agreement
with you on that one. No to fifty al right, Well,
Tyreek Hill have a reception of over fifty yards in
this game, I know is minus five. Yes is plus
three hundred. I'm gonna go yes, he's so fast, he's
(11:57):
he's uh speedy Gonzalez out there. We're miss saying the monologue.
This wee's like, it's like the auto bon with Tyreek Hills.
I think he will. I want to go yes, and
there's value in that. Make a couple of bucks. I'll
go yes, that's a really good one. Anything to go
with you to see we're doing prop bets is what
we're doing. We're do these actual prop bets. Here's when
(12:18):
the Niners defense has been ridiculously good. Here very very
good over under sacks for your Nick Bosa and the
Niners over three total sacks, under three total sacks. Over
is minus one forty. Under is plus one hundred. So
(12:39):
I don't know how you bet the under. I know
you win the under until they go over. But the
way the Niners defense is played, combined with the I
don't think the Packers are all that great. So I
I would take the over three and and again minus
one forty. I'm going with the chalk on this, but
I would I would do that, not about shocking the swan.
(13:00):
Penny's going the other way with under three and a half.
Be sure to catch live editions of The Ben Maller
Show weekdays at two am eastern pm Pacific. Now I
look forward to next week on Benny Versus the Penny
because the real solid prop beds. Boy, are you know
the leading up to the I guess we won't actually
have Benny Versus the Penny. Next week will be the
week after I thought you're gonna start gambling on the
(13:22):
Pro Bowl. Well, I mean we have to kill some time,
and we will. We have to get a second podcast
out during the week. Maybe we'll do that, but do
not do not plan on doing that. But the the
other thing before we did get to the actual games,
which is why people are here. So the odds are
out on the hypothetical theoretical Super Bowl matchups. Right, there's
(13:42):
only a limited number of possibilities. There's four teams left,
So what would the points spread be on each matchup? Now,
let's say the chalk one out that the Niners and
Chiefs play in Miami in the Super Bowl. Did you
see this gas gun? Did you see what the point
spread is? No? But you didn't all make an educated
guess a right to be San Francisco minus two and
(14:04):
a half. So you think the Niners would be a
two and a half point favorite over the Chiefs in
that matchup? No, according to super Book USA, the Chiefs
would the game would be a pick up, the game
would be a pick um, and the total in the
game would be fifty and a half, which that seems
like low to me with the Chiefs offense and whatnot,
But they that's what they're They've they claimed the line
(14:26):
will be We'll see if that's true, depending on injury.
One other matter. We've got three other possible matchups. You
want to go through the three? Here, what the point
spread would be Tennessee Green Bay, Tennessee green Bay? What
do you think the line would be? Green Bay minus four? No,
green Bay only minus one and a half. The total
would only be forty four on that game, so they
(14:47):
would they would expect not many points. So what are
the other match of pat Packers Chiefs? Yeah, I think
that would be Kansas City minus seven. Well, you should
bet on Kansas City then if that happens, But it's
the Chiefs are favored in the hypothetical matchup. They'll be
favored by four and a half over Aaron Rodgers and
the Packers in that Super Bowl one and the rematch,
(15:07):
and then the last possibly the forty Niners and the
tightness if Tennessee goes into Arrowhead and wins and the
Niners molly wop the team from Green Bay. The line up,
what do you think the line would be on forty
Niners tight San Francisco minor six with a total of
like forty two, You're pretty close. The Niners would be
minus five and a half over Tennessee and the total
(15:30):
will be forty four. So it's in that same area.
Who do you like? I mean, amongst the four teams
that are left, who do you like the most? I
like the chief so I don't love their divas. I
like the Chief so I love the Chiefs offense. And
I'd like to see Mahomes in the in the Super Bowl.
That'd be kind of cool. I was at the gym
earlier today and on three TVs. One of them showed
(15:53):
the a f C Championship game from last year, another
TV showed the Divisional round from last week, and then
another one was showing him at Texas Tech. I forget
what game it was, but all Mahomes all day. It's
said the Jim Alzato was awesome. It was kind of nauseating.
But yeah, I'd love to see my Homes versus San
Francisco's defense. Remember last year in the NFC Championship game,
(16:15):
the game went to overtime, the Chiefs put up thirty
one points. Mahomes had three touchdowns and no interceptions. He
he was you know, he wasn't great. He had he
had a fair amount of incompletions in the game. I
think he was about fifty percent passing or something like that,
I remember, but he was right around three hundred yards
and three touchdowns. Yeah, well, don't forget it was fourteen
nothing new England at the end of the first half.
(16:36):
So yeah, so yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean he played
in the second half of that game. He he went
two turbo time. I can't even say it's good. It's
a bad job. And didn't you yeah, I think you
last year you had in Benny versus A Penny, all
said Kansas City. So um, Penny had But what was
(16:59):
this a random flip here? What happened? Penny had the
Patriots last year in the NC Championship. Okay, all right,
let's get through the actual games here. It is the
Benny Versus the Penny podcast, which will not be along geated,
will not be along good. Alright. So the early game
on Sunday Championship Sunday Tennessee now eleven and seven, including
the playoffs from the ANFC South and Kansas City thirteen
(17:22):
and four from the a f C West. It's on
CBS with Jim Nance and Tony Romo on the call. Now,
the Chiefs opened a seven and a half point favorite,
seven and a half point favorite for Kansas City. And uh,
let's get the updated number. I gonna click a couple
of buttons here because it's all everything's online here and
(17:43):
see where the numbers are. Uh and uh, let's see
here the line has it's at seven now, so the
Chiefs minus seven. That's the current line. Where's the money
at It's about about six of the wagers are on
the home team, Kansas City in this game minus seven
(18:05):
after what they did to Houston last week. It'll be
sunny twenty one degrees at kickoff at Arrowhead Stadium. I
am going to take the Tennessee Titans plus the points
in this game now. And here's why. A if it's
not broke, you don't fix it, right, that's the old line.
We all learned that growing up. Mike Rabel has cooked
up a winning formula in recent weeks. The Titans are
(18:27):
going to try to ride the express train of Derrick Henry.
That's gonna be. They're gonna ride or die with Derrick
Henry here. It's a very straightforward game plan. There's not
any deception. If Ray will learn from Belichick, you don't
do the funny business. The same things that won football
games forty years ago still win football games today. Tennessee
(18:48):
is gonna try to play the four corners offense, keep
the ball away, slow the game down because if this
is a grinder game, okay, if this is a grinder
game long with thodical drives a lot of third down conversions,
every second is so precious for the Titans because they
don't have the firepower of Kansas City, and you you
(19:10):
gotta keep that Chief's offense, which is like a fire
hose of playmakers off the field as long as you can.
Armageddon for Tennessee would obviously be of the Chiefs jump
out to an early fourteen nothing lead, uh, something like that,
and that that forces Ryan Tannehill into the center of
the ring and that ain't gonna go. Well, you have
to be mentally deranged to to want to put your
(19:33):
money on Tannehill trailing early and have to to lead
Tennessee back. Now, is that the flukey things happened? Maybe
he could, but I ain't betting on that. So I
think this. They obviously keep part of the whole game,
but early in the game Tennessee to establish himself. Now,
U Tannehill has been a useful idiot. He has been
a decoy and the place I mentioned twenty nine pass attempts.
(19:56):
In terms of defense, the Titans, they don't have have
the sex appeal. There's not any real big names on there.
You know. Of all the teams left, the Niners have
the big names on defense, but Tennessee has bunker down.
They're allowing just thirteen points per game the last three weeks,
all of those games against playoff opponents. Now that obviously
the last two against Baltimore and New England. They also
(20:19):
did a very good job last game of the regular
season against the Houston Texans, and so they've also been
the beneficiary. I'm not gonna hide from it. There's been
a lot of mistakes by the Patriots and the Ravens,
and how much of that is because of good football
from Tennessee and how much of that is just sloppy
football from the opposition. But the word here is opportunistic.
(20:42):
The Titans have been an opportunistic defense. And does that
continue here We're gonna find out now. Part B of
this Patrick Mahomes, who had another magnum opus last week
against the Texans. This is another opportunity for him to
lead Andy read Like and carry him on his back
like a sack of potatoes back to the super Bowl.
(21:05):
The Chiefs have no excuse, no excuse here. They lose
this game, they will be destroyed. They should be destroyed.
They've got the creature comforts of home, home, cooking, your sleep,
number bed. You don't have to steal none of that
other stuff. Uber talented offense, right, uber talented offense, better
team top to bottom, talent wise, more experienced, seasoned head coach,
(21:30):
if that matters. Also, they don't have to play Tom
Brady on the other side and Bill Belichick. They're playing
the disciple of Belichick, but not Belichick. The sequel should
not be the equal. I would expect a close game here.
That's what I'm expecting here, Uh, closer than many anticipate.
The better team does not always win the game, but
(21:52):
this week Kansas City is going to prevail with the
pyrotechnic show that will be limited. The Titans are not
going to surrender without scratching and crawling and clawing and
all that stuff. So I would expect a grueling, exhausting
type game. A lot of points will be scored and
Mahomes will pull it out in the end. Chiefs thirty
(22:16):
one Titans, A petty is tailing you on this One's
go a Tennessee. Wow. Alright, so we both liked the
dog Doggie MCDOGG. Fox Sports Radio has the best sports
talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows
at Fox sports Radio dot com and within the I
(22:40):
Heart Radio app search f s R to listen live.
Let's get trivial Gascon. You want to get trivial alright.
Green Bay's Matt le Fleur is the first rookie head
coach to reach the conference championship game since blank. Since blank,
you have to fill in the blank. That's how this works,
(23:02):
all right? The answer coming up late game Green Bay
fourteen and three in the NFC North at Santa Clair.
That that includes the PLAYFFS and Santa Clair fourteen and
three as well. In the NFC West. It's on Fox,
so you better watch with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman
and my friend Chris Myers, part of the Fox Sports
Radio Alumni Association. I'm surprised you haven't reached out to him,
(23:25):
but Chris Myers will be on the sidelines there. What nothing, Okay,
I haven't talked to you. I gotta send text Chris,
Chris and text. You know sometimes when I'm watching the
game it's like really cold, I'll send him, you know,
he says a game. You know, this game is in
Northern California, but if it's in Green Bay, I'd be like, hey,
you look pretty good there. How many layers of clothing
do you have? And you're like text back during the game,
(23:47):
want me to want me to shoot him a text
for you? No, No, he didn't know you. We're colleagues.
I did a show with him for for like a year.
Did you guys get fired or kicked off that time slot? Uh? No, no,
he well he got fired. Well we both actually technically
got fired out to the Ben and Dave show. Well
that's that was This is the Ben and what was
(24:08):
the drive with Chris Myers, just because I was just
resigning all the shows that you've been punted off of. Yeah,
it's better to be it has been than it never was,
you know, I just point that out. Yeah, w e
I piece out again. That's because of the termination in
the Sports Hub now, which is a great radio station
(24:29):
in Boston. Unfortunately not all right, let's get to the
damn game. So the Niners opened up a six point favorite.
They are seven and a half point favorites. So you
got the hook on the forty Niners. And the reason
you got the hook here is because everyone of their
mother is betting on the forty Niners. And I'm gonna
(24:49):
go with the sheep here. I'm gonna take the forty
Niners in the game. The weather mostly cloudy, fifty eight
degrees of kick off at Levi's Stadium for all the
Google and Twitter and Facebook executives and YouTube that will
be hanging out. So I got the Niners. Now, the
Niners defense we saw last week again unshackled against the Vikings,
(25:10):
I would expect more of that. This week, Nick Bosa
and friends have been as lethal as a barracuda of
late on defense, and they are going to give Aaron
Rodgers heartburn and anxiety and all that stuff. The forty
Niners defense has allowed only five point two yards per
attempt for the season. I read this earlier, and that's
(25:34):
that's against combined offenses that average six point seven yards
per attempt. That is a minus one and a half
yard margin. You said, well, that doesn't matter, who cares.
That's just a bunch of numbers. That's a bunch of gibbers. Well,
that is the best statistic for any team in the
NFL in over a decade. You're gonna go back to
(25:54):
the Pittsburgh Steelers. It has been breathtaking, is what it's been.
And that's twelve seasons of football, and so essentially the
Niners defense has been a once in a decade type
of defense. Now I'm not as smitten with the forty
Niners offense, but the gold rush attack of led by
(26:15):
Tevin Coleman should provide enough punch in in side by
side with the defense, you know, in in you know,
working together, uh, synergy, whatever term you want to use here,
The nightmare here in this game for the forty Niners
would be if Green Bay is able to break through
(26:36):
somehow and score some points, and then this becomes a
back and forth game and you're depending on Jimmy Garoppolo
to go punch for punch with a Aaron Rodgers type
guy who's hot, who's playing well, with confidence and all
this stuff. That would be a disaster for the forty Years.
I don't expect that to happen. I think this game
(26:56):
will be decided by the fourth quarter. Uh, and the
path Sers do have some holes in their secondary, but
you don't want to have Garoppolo be this siding factory
because that means a lot of things have gone wrong
for the forty Niners. Now. The second Green Bay to
me continues to be one of the great mysteries of
the season. I want to point out that last week
(27:16):
I had a bad beat. If Seattle had converted a
two point conversion, I would have been fine in that game.
They did not, so I was my handicapping was actually
right on the Green Bay Seattle game. Just an odd
thing took place there. But as far as the Packers,
the eyeball test says to me, this is a slightly
better than average team. I've said it before, I'll say
it again. They look to me like a ten and
(27:37):
six team. Yet they have now won fourteen games, including
the playoffs. It is so bizarre that they continue to
win these games. Aaron Rodgers had an embarrassing performance the
first time he played the Niners this year, and obviously
now the stakes have been raised and all that stuff.
Is he gonna do better in the sequel? Many say, oh, yeah,
(28:01):
of course, Aaron fucking Rogers. Of course he's gonna do
But I say, now, I expect the forty Niners to
mess up the rhythm of that Green Bay passing attack again.
And also the problem the Packers are gonna have is
that the Niners are going to hog tie any running
back to Packers throughout. They shut down Dalvin Cook and
(28:21):
despite my you know, enthusiasm for the Vikings, they couldn't
do anything right. Aaron Jones is a good running back.
He's in for some tough sledding here. Packers offense will
be bogged down in this game. It is going to
be a slaughter. A lot of cheese will be flying
in the air everywhere, but not in a good way.
It's Limburger cheese, forty Niners thirty four Packers seventeen. That's right,
(28:47):
that's the super Bowl. It's gonna be the forty Niners
in the chiefs and a revenge game. The penny is
going with the Green Bay Packers. Bad job, bad job.
Now you want to look back at last week before
we put the baby to bed here again scar AFC
and NFC Division round matchups, you went one and three again.
I just explained that, really I was right about the
(29:08):
Seattle Green Bay game. Two point conversion did me? Nobody
cares one in three. That's awful. That's not a it's
one in three, that's not awful. You're batting too again.
I know you're not that bright, you don't understand nuance,
but the handicapping was right. You're a twenty. The way
I anticipated the games I had. Listen, you're talking about
(29:28):
a bad weekend. I had the Texans twenty for nothing
getting nine and a half, and those assholes from Houston
that screwed up and lost the game, didn't even cover
the spread. And you're twenty four nothing league getting almost
a double digits, and you can't cover the fucking spread.
Fire Bill O'Brien, that piece of HyET. You fire him.
(29:49):
You know who had Kansas City minus nine and a
half the penny. That doesn't matter. I was right about
that game. I was right about the Texas I was
right about the Seattle Green Bay game. So really I
went three and one? Fuck you? Okay, horrendous? All right,
I gotta pay off the let's get trivial. So Matt
la Fleur is the first rookie head coach to reach
(30:11):
the conference championship games since blank. I'm gonna go with
the great John Madden. John Madden Wow, way back in
the day the Madden Mobile. Yes, no, you're wrong, jeb
By your guest gun you do not know Kep talking
about your phony. My second guest was Dick for Meal,
but believe it or not, it was Jim Harball. Jim
(30:33):
Harball just almost a decade ago. Now it's hard to
believe it's been almost a decade. But after the eleven
season with the forty niners, with the forty niners, so
this is now. This is a leaning mean benny versus
the penny. This is leaning to me. Do you think
the downloads will be higher because the show's shorter, or
will they be the same. If it's any indication of
(30:56):
what your followers and suck ups and boot liquors were
like the two weeks when you lost two bets to me,
I'm gonna say it is probably lower than expectations, So
I'm gonna go with the under no, I think it
will be about the same, because why would it change.
It's it's you can listen to more of it. Well,
I'm yeah, what's true. But you can always fast forward
(31:17):
when you want to get to the point. So on
on the get to the point, please on the iTunes
and I heart radio app you can always fast forward.
I thought the biggest indictment on all this is Benny
versus the Penny doesn't get as many downloads as your
original Fifth Our with Ben Mallory podcast. Well, hold on sake,
that's the first time that's happened. Now, that is the
first time. Last week was the first time that happened.
(31:40):
And I'm sure what you did is you you send
an email out to the Gascon family, the Gagon family
and said, hey, you might want to download the but
it's probably a reason for that. A little bit more me,
a little bit less of you, and you're hated you're
a hell. People despise you, they can't stand You's not
true alright anyway, listen, that's it. Well with the baby
to bed. Guscon's busy. Guys, got crap to do. I
(32:03):
don't have anything to do but have a great, wonderful,
glorious weekend. Enjoy the games and make sure to download
the other podcast as we'll have a great weekend. We'll
catch you on the radio Sunday night into Monday to
tell you kind of like what Cowherd does right, what
we got right, what we got wrong? Um, we'll whip
that off. Why not because you love Cowherd Anyway, that'd
(32:23):
be coming up. Have a great weekend, Sayonara.
Here you go. I was born ready. Oh Jesus, there
we go. Ah see, you're not even ready, man, What
the fuck? Welcome players, You're welcome. It's time now penny
versus the penny that it is as this the championship
(00:25):
weekend in the NFL and today, Hey, we're back on
the amazing podcast The Fifth Hour with Ben Mallard eight
podcast dedicated. This entire podcast dedityated to two games. Two games, I,
of course the piro of many, and then we have
the coin represented by or the penny here David Gascon
(00:47):
affectionately known on Social pro effectually known on social media
is David Gagon and bro verk Satti there and so
since we only have two games, gast and I had
a brilliant idea here to look at some of the
other gambling news I've prop bets, you know, kill some
more time. Why not before we actually get to handicapping
(01:09):
the championship games this weekend. Exotics says they would call it.
You feel good about that? Uh? Well, I know that
some prop bets are money making opportunities. Others are a
sucker's place. You have to pick and shoes. You have
to be selective on what you do. But before we
get to those, even did you see the sports books
in New Jersey? The numbers came out this week that
(01:32):
the books in Jersey one almost three hundred million dollars
in twenty nineteen. They're doing the accounting. The bean counters
are taking over and they they really are the penny
that is that is amazing. Now is that just NFL
action or is that including college football as well? That
(01:53):
includes everything. That's the entire handle for the sports books
and the amazing. I was talking to some in Vegas
that I noticed in the gambling business, and they were
telling me that it's you know, it's not even close
that even though everyone and I grew up with Vegas
being the gambling mecca of the world, because there's so
many more people that are close right there in the
(02:13):
New York, New Jersey metropolitan area, the Tri state area
also with Connecticut over there and whatnot, and and uh,
they will be the biggest gambling state, you know, until
New York adds sports gambling, which with their politicians, god
knows when that's gonna be. But New Jersey, Uh, there
was four point five billion uh that was bet in
(02:33):
in last season. Most of it was on football is
almost almost a billion dollars on football. Basketball was actually
a little bit, just a little bit behind that, and
then baseball was further down by like a couple hundred million, uh.
And a lot of people bet parlays, a lot of
like the they've noticed here that people love because like
(02:54):
playing a lottery ticket, but you have to get all
three ride or you know, two or three or whatever
it is. But yeah, it's unfortunate too because and I
don't know how you feel about this, and correct me
if I'm wrong, but I think we were now in
the date that the day and age we're gambling is
much like dating. It's all online, and there's a novelty
(03:16):
that going out and meeting a woman grabbing a drink,
you know, engaging and then obviously asking her out. Like
there's something to me that's great about when you drive
to Vegas and you know this, like making the commute
to Vegas and then you see those towering lights from
the lux Or and you're like, I'm almost in Sin City, baby,
(03:37):
And then it's an opportunity to gamble a little bit.
You get your cops, you get some meals, you get
some drinks, and lay down some cash but everything now
is just so automated digitally that you just you forget
what you're doing and you just let things rip at
any given time. I don't know you feel about it,
but that's how I feel now with gambling these days.
Oh so you don't do online dating? Is that you
don't do that either? No, you don't know. Don't you know?
(03:59):
I don't know. It's just for me personally. You feel
like you you laid you out your particulars. It's like
a menu I don't want to have. I love the research, right,
It's like exactly what we do in this profession. It's
the research. It's it's getting to know somebody. It's getting
to find out who they're about, what they do, all
those things, and and having it right before your fingertips
(04:21):
just by you know, putting you know a location that
you have in any particulars like race, religion, hair color,
all that stuff I'm not down for. I love I
love it. I love going to Vegas for the sheer
purpose to throw down some coin. Of course, I'm I'm
big into crabs in blackjack. But of course, when you
when you look at the sports side of things, going
to the Venetian and going to Lagasse Stadium and they
(04:43):
give you they give you comps, they give you drink tickets,
they give you other comps. Yeah. Yeah, because you know
you're gonna lose your money. I mean, I I go.
I love Vegas too, I mean I go all the time.
But I you know what you are. You're like a
horse and buggy guy. You're the guy when the automobile
came around. So you know what, I don't need to
I'm an old school guy. I like to smell the
feces of the horse's ass when I'm riding on the horse.
(05:05):
I like to enjoy that. Uh, you're that guy. You're
the horse and buggy guest. Gun. You're the guy when
the microwave came out and said no, I'd rather spend
more time staring at the stove. You're that guy. You're
you are today's modern day version of a tesla. Right.
You don't want to drive. You want some automated vehicle
to maneuver and put you around to wherever you're at,
whether it's in Malibu or a Thousand Oaks, or or Calabasas.
(05:28):
And me, I prefer to cruise of my sixty nine
Mustang and kind of get toward you to be at
my own pace. I appreciate that there's something refined about
what I do and gambling, and if you know, you'd
find you're I like that you you managed to pat
yourself on the back when because you know I won't
and nobody else will, only you will do all right.
(05:49):
So let's get to some of these prop bets. Dumb, dumb, Okay,
you can reminisce about the glory days. Go down memory lane,
the good old days when when the Mob ruled Vegas.
That did a good job. In when the Mob controlled Vegas.
You had so many more freebees. Everything was cheaper, you can,
you got free parking. We gotta get the mob back
into control of Vegas. That's what we got. Maybe the
(06:10):
Mexican drug cartels can take over Vegas and everything will
be free. You've got rooms comped, you got food comp do,
you got nights outcom for alcohol and dining, the whole
smash and now and now you're gonna spend hours and
hours and hours in there, and you have a camera
above you that rates you on your plates. Bullshit. Be
sure to catch live editions of The Ben Maller Show
(06:30):
weekdays at two am Eastern eleven pm Pacific on Fox
Sports Radio and the I Heart Radio app. No I listen,
I I agree with you. And plus, you know you
have to have that little card, the players Club card
that keeps track of everything. The police state has to
keep track. And you know, I have friends that work
at some of the casinos in Vegas, and you know,
I'm not gonna lie. I mean, I've gotten some freebees
over the years. Um, just you know whatever. But it's
(06:54):
not as easy as it used to be. It's not
as easy. You can't just say, hey, get Mallard a room. No,
you gotta you know, it's a whole like loop hoops,
you gotta jump through. Anyway, some of the prop bets
for this weekend, we're gonna get into these problems. But
do you waste so much? What if we're gonna get
into the prop bets for this week, why don't we
go back to last week to see how you did?
I mean, is not fair to the audience that well, though,
(07:16):
we're gonna do that before we pick the games. If
we have time, we might not have time because you
have an event you have to go to, and so
we're unlimited time here, and so we must get to this.
But you hear the profits. So Derrick Henry, who's been
the super nova for Tennessee, is the profit is rushing
yards for Derrick Henry over a hundred eighty yards? Will
(07:39):
Henry run for over a hundred eighty yards? If you
say no, that is minus one thousand, minus one thousand
on that. If you say yes, it's plus five hundred.
So the only way Tennessee can win this game plausibly
is for Henry to go to about a d eighty yards.
But I'm not gonna you would have to be a
(08:01):
fool to say yes on that, although you get better
better odds. Obviously, I am gonna say that he does
not get over a hundred yards, So I'm gonna mark
me down for no on that particular prop. Chock mallard
minus one thousand. Okay, Now, is that the penny gonna
pick this? Or you? Maybe you can pick this guest
on that way? Oh, the penny is gonna How goody
(08:23):
the penny's gonna pick? How exciting is it? This? Look
up and she says, Derrick Henry, yes, plus five hundred,
put him down, plus five hundred. Put it on the board. Yeah,
don't be stealing my material. Okay, I already stole it
from Hot Carrolson. You don't need to steal it from
me now. But I am not gonna gonna take the
as I said, I'm not gonna say he's gonna go
(08:44):
for over a hundred I think you have a hundred
and fifty five yards. How about that, Ryan Tannehill, here's
a good one. Will he throw for under a hundred
yards and then win and Tennessee win the game? Now,
this has been a tradition here late for the Titans.
In these playoff games. Tannehill is not used much at all.
He's just kind of hanging around, hanging around, uh and
(09:07):
all that. Uh So, no is minus three thousand and
if you're not a gambler, that implies a ninety six
percent chance chance almost ninety seven percent, that that this
will will not happen, that that this is not gonna happen.
I would throw a couple of bucks down on yes,
(09:29):
because I think if Tannehill goes over a hundred yards passing,
Tennessee likely will not be able to win the game,
meaning he will f this game up. He will throw
interceptions and be a disaster. But um, I'm not gonna
bet on yes, because that's a sucker's play. Even at
plus fifteen hundred, I mean hundred yards you can get
in a half or a quarter, you know, a decent quarterback.
(09:52):
But I'm gonna take no Ones. I'm again, I'm gonna
go no. I'm gonna go chalk minus three thousand on Tanning.
Penny will agree with you on that one, minus three
thousand on No. Alright, So the same concept on this prop,
bet on Benny versus the penny, which will be higher
Ryan Tannehill's passing yards or Derrick Henry's rushing yards. That
(10:13):
is a good one, right, Tannehill's minus three fifty and
Henry because you obviously is easier to get passing yards. Uh,
Derrick Henry's plus two five. I'm gonna take Henry on this.
I'm gonna take Henry. Tennessee is not gonna change what
they've done. Mike Rabel is not going to change the
game plan here. You don't reinvent the wheel. It's working.
(10:33):
It's just human conditions. So I'm going with Henry. Henry
is gonna have a hundred and fifty five something yards
and they're just gonna play keep away. And you know
a few short passes, but there they'll mix the running
backs up. So I'll take Henry it plus plus two five.
The odds should actually be little higher than that. But
Penny is going the other way with Tannehill. This isn't
(10:55):
Peyton Manning two thousand fifteen. He can throw the ball
down the field. They don't throw He's attempt twenty nine
passes in two games. That's just because of how the
defense is playing them in the first couple of rounds.
And you think they're gonna change it in this game,
of course, not pcent. All right, what are some of
the other Most of these props are about the Tennessee
Kansas City game. Let's see, let me just find another
(11:16):
good one. Well, Kansas City score fifty or more points?
No is minus a thousand, plus is plus five hundred
on yes? Rather yes this plus five? Well, no, they're
not gonna score fifty points in this game. Uh, not
gonna happen. That's very rare. Once in a blue moon
does that happen. So I will take no on Kansas
(11:37):
City scoring fifty points or more. Penny is an agreement
with you on that one. No to fifty al right, Well,
Tyreek Hill have a reception of over fifty yards in
this game, I know is minus five. Yes is plus
three hundred. I'm gonna go yes, he's so fast, he's
(11:57):
he's uh speedy Gonzalez out there. We're miss saying the monologue.
This wee's like, it's like the auto bon with Tyreek Hills.
I think he will. I want to go yes, and
there's value in that. Make a couple of bucks. I'll
go yes, that's a really good one. Anything to go
with you to see we're doing prop bets is what
we're doing. We're do these actual prop bets. Here's when
(12:18):
the Niners defense has been ridiculously good. Here very very
good over under sacks for your Nick Bosa and the
Niners over three total sacks, under three total sacks. Over
is minus one forty. Under is plus one hundred. So
(12:39):
I don't know how you bet the under. I know
you win the under until they go over. But the
way the Niners defense is played, combined with the I
don't think the Packers are all that great. So I
I would take the over three and and again minus
one forty. I'm going with the chalk on this, but
I would I would do that, not about shocking the swan.
(13:00):
Penny's going the other way with under three and a half.
Be sure to catch live editions of The Ben Maller
Show weekdays at two am eastern pm Pacific. Now I
look forward to next week on Benny Versus the Penny
because the real solid prop beds. Boy, are you know
the leading up to the I guess we won't actually
have Benny Versus the Penny. Next week will be the
week after I thought you're gonna start gambling on the
(13:22):
Pro Bowl. Well, I mean we have to kill some time,
and we will. We have to get a second podcast
out during the week. Maybe we'll do that, but do
not do not plan on doing that. But the the
other thing before we did get to the actual games,
which is why people are here. So the odds are
out on the hypothetical theoretical Super Bowl matchups. Right, there's
(13:42):
only a limited number of possibilities. There's four teams left,
So what would the points spread be on each matchup? Now,
let's say the chalk one out that the Niners and
Chiefs play in Miami in the Super Bowl. Did you
see this gas gun? Did you see what the point
spread is? No? But you didn't all make an educated
guess a right to be San Francisco minus two and
(14:04):
a half. So you think the Niners would be a
two and a half point favorite over the Chiefs in
that matchup? No, according to super Book USA, the Chiefs
would the game would be a pick up, the game
would be a pick um, and the total in the
game would be fifty and a half, which that seems
like low to me with the Chiefs offense and whatnot,
But they that's what they're They've they claimed the line
(14:26):
will be We'll see if that's true, depending on injury.
One other matter. We've got three other possible matchups. You
want to go through the three? Here, what the point
spread would be Tennessee Green Bay, Tennessee green Bay? What
do you think the line would be? Green Bay minus four? No,
green Bay only minus one and a half. The total
would only be forty four on that game, so they
(14:47):
would they would expect not many points. So what are
the other match of pat Packers Chiefs? Yeah, I think
that would be Kansas City minus seven. Well, you should
bet on Kansas City then if that happens, But it's
the Chiefs are favored in the hypothetical matchup. They'll be
favored by four and a half over Aaron Rodgers and
the Packers in that Super Bowl one and the rematch,
(15:07):
and then the last possibly the forty Niners and the
tightness if Tennessee goes into Arrowhead and wins and the
Niners molly wop the team from Green Bay. The line up,
what do you think the line would be on forty
Niners tight San Francisco minor six with a total of
like forty two, You're pretty close. The Niners would be
minus five and a half over Tennessee and the total
(15:30):
will be forty four. So it's in that same area.
Who do you like? I mean, amongst the four teams
that are left, who do you like the most? I
like the chief so I don't love their divas. I
like the Chief so I love the Chiefs offense. And
I'd like to see Mahomes in the in the Super Bowl.
That'd be kind of cool. I was at the gym
earlier today and on three TVs. One of them showed
(15:53):
the a f C Championship game from last year, another
TV showed the Divisional round from last week, and then
another one was showing him at Texas Tech. I forget
what game it was, but all Mahomes all day. It's
said the Jim Alzato was awesome. It was kind of nauseating.
But yeah, I'd love to see my Homes versus San
Francisco's defense. Remember last year in the NFC Championship game,
(16:15):
the game went to overtime, the Chiefs put up thirty
one points. Mahomes had three touchdowns and no interceptions. He
he was you know, he wasn't great. He had he
had a fair amount of incompletions in the game. I
think he was about fifty percent passing or something like that,
I remember, but he was right around three hundred yards
and three touchdowns. Yeah, well, don't forget it was fourteen
nothing new England at the end of the first half.
(16:36):
So yeah, so yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean he played
in the second half of that game. He he went
two turbo time. I can't even say it's good. It's
a bad job. And didn't you yeah, I think you
last year you had in Benny versus A Penny, all
said Kansas City. So um, Penny had But what was
(16:59):
this a random flip here? What happened? Penny had the
Patriots last year in the NC Championship. Okay, all right,
let's get through the actual games here. It is the
Benny Versus the Penny podcast, which will not be along geated,
will not be along good. Alright. So the early game
on Sunday Championship Sunday Tennessee now eleven and seven, including
the playoffs from the ANFC South and Kansas City thirteen
(17:22):
and four from the a f C West. It's on
CBS with Jim Nance and Tony Romo on the call. Now,
the Chiefs opened a seven and a half point favorite,
seven and a half point favorite for Kansas City. And uh,
let's get the updated number. I gonna click a couple
of buttons here because it's all everything's online here and
(17:43):
see where the numbers are. Uh and uh, let's see
here the line has it's at seven now, so the
Chiefs minus seven. That's the current line. Where's the money
at It's about about six of the wagers are on
the home team, Kansas City in this game minus seven
(18:05):
after what they did to Houston last week. It'll be
sunny twenty one degrees at kickoff at Arrowhead Stadium. I
am going to take the Tennessee Titans plus the points
in this game now. And here's why. A if it's
not broke, you don't fix it, right, that's the old line.
We all learned that growing up. Mike Rabel has cooked
up a winning formula in recent weeks. The Titans are
(18:27):
going to try to ride the express train of Derrick Henry.
That's gonna be. They're gonna ride or die with Derrick
Henry here. It's a very straightforward game plan. There's not
any deception. If Ray will learn from Belichick, you don't
do the funny business. The same things that won football
games forty years ago still win football games today. Tennessee
(18:48):
is gonna try to play the four corners offense, keep
the ball away, slow the game down because if this
is a grinder game, okay, if this is a grinder
game long with thodical drives a lot of third down conversions,
every second is so precious for the Titans because they
don't have the firepower of Kansas City, and you you
(19:10):
gotta keep that Chief's offense, which is like a fire
hose of playmakers off the field as long as you can.
Armageddon for Tennessee would obviously be of the Chiefs jump
out to an early fourteen nothing lead, uh, something like that,
and that that forces Ryan Tannehill into the center of
the ring and that ain't gonna go. Well, you have
to be mentally deranged to to want to put your
(19:33):
money on Tannehill trailing early and have to to lead
Tennessee back. Now, is that the flukey things happened? Maybe
he could, but I ain't betting on that. So I
think this. They obviously keep part of the whole game,
but early in the game Tennessee to establish himself. Now,
U Tannehill has been a useful idiot. He has been
a decoy and the place I mentioned twenty nine pass attempts.
(19:56):
In terms of defense, the Titans, they don't have have
the sex appeal. There's not any real big names on there.
You know. Of all the teams left, the Niners have
the big names on defense, but Tennessee has bunker down.
They're allowing just thirteen points per game the last three weeks,
all of those games against playoff opponents. Now that obviously
the last two against Baltimore and New England. They also
(20:19):
did a very good job last game of the regular
season against the Houston Texans, and so they've also been
the beneficiary. I'm not gonna hide from it. There's been
a lot of mistakes by the Patriots and the Ravens,
and how much of that is because of good football
from Tennessee and how much of that is just sloppy
football from the opposition. But the word here is opportunistic.
(20:42):
The Titans have been an opportunistic defense. And does that
continue here We're gonna find out now. Part B of
this Patrick Mahomes, who had another magnum opus last week
against the Texans. This is another opportunity for him to
lead Andy read Like and carry him on his back
like a sack of potatoes back to the super Bowl.
(21:05):
The Chiefs have no excuse, no excuse here. They lose
this game, they will be destroyed. They should be destroyed.
They've got the creature comforts of home, home, cooking, your sleep,
number bed. You don't have to steal none of that
other stuff. Uber talented offense, right, uber talented offense, better
team top to bottom, talent wise, more experienced, seasoned head coach,
(21:30):
if that matters. Also, they don't have to play Tom
Brady on the other side and Bill Belichick. They're playing
the disciple of Belichick, but not Belichick. The sequel should
not be the equal. I would expect a close game here.
That's what I'm expecting here, Uh, closer than many anticipate.
The better team does not always win the game, but
(21:52):
this week Kansas City is going to prevail with the
pyrotechnic show that will be limited. The Titans are not
going to surrender without scratching and crawling and clawing and
all that stuff. So I would expect a grueling, exhausting
type game. A lot of points will be scored and
Mahomes will pull it out in the end. Chiefs thirty
(22:16):
one Titans, A petty is tailing you on this One's
go a Tennessee. Wow. Alright, so we both liked the
dog Doggie MCDOGG. Fox Sports Radio has the best sports
talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows
at Fox sports Radio dot com and within the I
(22:40):
Heart Radio app search f s R to listen live.
Let's get trivial Gascon. You want to get trivial alright.
Green Bay's Matt le Fleur is the first rookie head
coach to reach the conference championship game since blank. Since blank,
you have to fill in the blank. That's how this works,
(23:02):
all right? The answer coming up late game Green Bay
fourteen and three in the NFC North at Santa Clair.
That that includes the PLAYFFS and Santa Clair fourteen and
three as well. In the NFC West. It's on Fox,
so you better watch with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman
and my friend Chris Myers, part of the Fox Sports
Radio Alumni Association. I'm surprised you haven't reached out to him,
(23:25):
but Chris Myers will be on the sidelines there. What nothing, Okay,
I haven't talked to you. I gotta send text Chris,
Chris and text. You know sometimes when I'm watching the
game it's like really cold, I'll send him, you know,
he says a game. You know, this game is in
Northern California, but if it's in Green Bay, I'd be like, hey,
you look pretty good there. How many layers of clothing
do you have? And you're like text back during the game,
(23:47):
want me to want me to shoot him a text
for you? No, No, he didn't know you. We're colleagues.
I did a show with him for for like a year.
Did you guys get fired or kicked off that time slot? Uh? No, no,
he well he got fired. Well we both actually technically
got fired out to the Ben and Dave show. Well
that's that was This is the Ben and what was
(24:08):
the drive with Chris Myers, just because I was just
resigning all the shows that you've been punted off of. Yeah,
it's better to be it has been than it never was,
you know, I just point that out. Yeah, w e
I piece out again. That's because of the termination in
the Sports Hub now, which is a great radio station
(24:29):
in Boston. Unfortunately not all right, let's get to the
damn game. So the Niners opened up a six point favorite.
They are seven and a half point favorites. So you
got the hook on the forty Niners. And the reason
you got the hook here is because everyone of their
mother is betting on the forty Niners. And I'm gonna
(24:49):
go with the sheep here. I'm gonna take the forty
Niners in the game. The weather mostly cloudy, fifty eight
degrees of kick off at Levi's Stadium for all the
Google and Twitter and Facebook executives and YouTube that will
be hanging out. So I got the Niners. Now, the
Niners defense we saw last week again unshackled against the Vikings,
(25:10):
I would expect more of that. This week, Nick Bosa
and friends have been as lethal as a barracuda of
late on defense, and they are going to give Aaron
Rodgers heartburn and anxiety and all that stuff. The forty
Niners defense has allowed only five point two yards per
attempt for the season. I read this earlier, and that's
(25:34):
that's against combined offenses that average six point seven yards
per attempt. That is a minus one and a half
yard margin. You said, well, that doesn't matter, who cares.
That's just a bunch of numbers. That's a bunch of gibbers. Well,
that is the best statistic for any team in the
NFL in over a decade. You're gonna go back to
(25:54):
the Pittsburgh Steelers. It has been breathtaking, is what it's been.
And that's twelve seasons of football, and so essentially the
Niners defense has been a once in a decade type
of defense. Now I'm not as smitten with the forty
Niners offense, but the gold rush attack of led by
(26:15):
Tevin Coleman should provide enough punch in in side by
side with the defense, you know, in in you know,
working together, uh, synergy, whatever term you want to use here,
The nightmare here in this game for the forty Niners
would be if Green Bay is able to break through
(26:36):
somehow and score some points, and then this becomes a
back and forth game and you're depending on Jimmy Garoppolo
to go punch for punch with a Aaron Rodgers type
guy who's hot, who's playing well, with confidence and all
this stuff. That would be a disaster for the forty Years.
I don't expect that to happen. I think this game
(26:56):
will be decided by the fourth quarter. Uh, and the
path Sers do have some holes in their secondary, but
you don't want to have Garoppolo be this siding factory
because that means a lot of things have gone wrong
for the forty Niners. Now. The second Green Bay to
me continues to be one of the great mysteries of
the season. I want to point out that last week
(27:16):
I had a bad beat. If Seattle had converted a
two point conversion, I would have been fine in that game.
They did not, so I was my handicapping was actually
right on the Green Bay Seattle game. Just an odd
thing took place there. But as far as the Packers,
the eyeball test says to me, this is a slightly
better than average team. I've said it before, I'll say
it again. They look to me like a ten and
(27:37):
six team. Yet they have now won fourteen games, including
the playoffs. It is so bizarre that they continue to
win these games. Aaron Rodgers had an embarrassing performance the
first time he played the Niners this year, and obviously
now the stakes have been raised and all that stuff.
Is he gonna do better in the sequel? Many say, oh, yeah,
(28:01):
of course, Aaron fucking Rogers. Of course he's gonna do
But I say, now, I expect the forty Niners to
mess up the rhythm of that Green Bay passing attack again.
And also the problem the Packers are gonna have is
that the Niners are going to hog tie any running
back to Packers throughout. They shut down Dalvin Cook and
(28:21):
despite my you know, enthusiasm for the Vikings, they couldn't
do anything right. Aaron Jones is a good running back.
He's in for some tough sledding here. Packers offense will
be bogged down in this game. It is going to
be a slaughter. A lot of cheese will be flying
in the air everywhere, but not in a good way.
It's Limburger cheese, forty Niners thirty four Packers seventeen. That's right,
(28:47):
that's the super Bowl. It's gonna be the forty Niners
in the chiefs and a revenge game. The penny is
going with the Green Bay Packers. Bad job, bad job.
Now you want to look back at last week before
we put the baby to bed here again scar AFC
and NFC Division round matchups, you went one and three again.
I just explained that, really I was right about the
(29:08):
Seattle Green Bay game. Two point conversion did me? Nobody
cares one in three. That's awful. That's not a it's
one in three, that's not awful. You're batting too again.
I know you're not that bright, you don't understand nuance,
but the handicapping was right. You're a twenty. The way
I anticipated the games I had. Listen, you're talking about
(29:28):
a bad weekend. I had the Texans twenty for nothing
getting nine and a half, and those assholes from Houston
that screwed up and lost the game, didn't even cover
the spread. And you're twenty four nothing league getting almost
a double digits, and you can't cover the fucking spread.
Fire Bill O'Brien, that piece of HyET. You fire him.
(29:49):
You know who had Kansas City minus nine and a
half the penny. That doesn't matter. I was right about
that game. I was right about the Texas I was
right about the Seattle Green Bay game. So really I
went three and one? Fuck you? Okay, horrendous? All right,
I gotta pay off the let's get trivial. So Matt
la Fleur is the first rookie head coach to reach
(30:11):
the conference championship games since blank. I'm gonna go with
the great John Madden. John Madden Wow, way back in
the day the Madden Mobile. Yes, no, you're wrong, jeb
By your guest gun you do not know Kep talking
about your phony. My second guest was Dick for Meal,
but believe it or not, it was Jim Harball. Jim
(30:33):
Harball just almost a decade ago. Now it's hard to
believe it's been almost a decade. But after the eleven
season with the forty niners, with the forty niners, so
this is now. This is a leaning mean benny versus
the penny. This is leaning to me. Do you think
the downloads will be higher because the show's shorter, or
will they be the same. If it's any indication of
(30:56):
what your followers and suck ups and boot liquors were
like the two weeks when you lost two bets to me,
I'm gonna say it is probably lower than expectations, So
I'm gonna go with the under no, I think it
will be about the same, because why would it change.
It's it's you can listen to more of it. Well,
I'm yeah, what's true. But you can always fast forward
(31:17):
when you want to get to the point. So on
on the get to the point, please on the iTunes
and I heart radio app you can always fast forward.
I thought the biggest indictment on all this is Benny
versus the Penny doesn't get as many downloads as your
original Fifth Our with Ben Mallory podcast. Well, hold on sake,
that's the first time that's happened. Now, that is the
first time. Last week was the first time that happened.
(31:40):
And I'm sure what you did is you you send
an email out to the Gascon family, the Gagon family
and said, hey, you might want to download the but
it's probably a reason for that. A little bit more me,
a little bit less of you, and you're hated you're
a hell. People despise you, they can't stand You's not
true alright anyway, listen, that's it. Well with the baby
to bed. Guscon's busy. Guys, got crap to do. I
(32:03):
don't have anything to do but have a great, wonderful,
glorious weekend. Enjoy the games and make sure to download
the other podcast as we'll have a great weekend. We'll
catch you on the radio Sunday night into Monday to
tell you kind of like what Cowherd does right, what
we got right, what we got wrong? Um, we'll whip
that off. Why not because you love Cowherd Anyway, that'd
(32:23):
be coming up. Have a great weekend, Sayonara.
Host
Ben Maller
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