January 28, 2022 • 35 mins
Heading into championship weekend in the NFL, who better to chat with than Todd Fuhrman. Todd has been a staple of Fox Sports Radio shows over the years providing gambling info to listeners all over the world. He has had a hand with many different roles at FS1. Is the Co-Founder of the BetTheBoardPodcast and analyst for CBSSportsHQ We take a fascinating journey to learn more about what makes the man tick, the early days crunching numbers in high school, a failed hockey career, the ugly side of working behind the scenes in a sportsbook. Plus we won’t ignore the NFC/AFC title games. Follow Todd on Twitter, @ToddFuhrman, Follow Danny G Radio on Twitter @DannyGradio, Follow Big Ben on Twitter @BenMaller, and listen to the original "Ben Maller Show," Monday-Friday on Fox Sports Radio, 2a-6a ET, 11p-3a PT!
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Ka boom. If you thought four hours a day, minutes
a week was enough, I think again. He's the last
remnants of the old republic a sole fashion of fairness.
He treats crackheads in the ghetto gutter the same as
the rich pill poppers in the penthouse to clearing house
of hot takes, break free for something special. The Fifth
(00:23):
Hour with Ben Maller starts right now in the air everywhere,
back at it. A new weekend is upon us, another
addition of the Fifth Hour with Ben Maller and Danny
g Here we are kicking off a championship weekend in
(00:48):
the NFL, and I was thinking about it. I was like, well, listen,
who do I want to talk to for championship weekend
in the NFL. And there's a handful of roughly five
people in the gambling world that I think are great
radio And one of those five people we are lucky
(01:09):
enough to have on today on this edition of the
Fifth Hour. And it is a conversation because, as you know,
during the Overnight show, five nights a week, four hours
a night, we only have paid callers that we talked to.
We do not have any guests. Paid guests. If you have.
I don't like the term guests. I feel like that
(01:29):
the term guest is blah, bad term. So instead it's
just people I like to hang out with and I
want to learn more about and and all that. And
one of those people is Todd Ferman. Now, if you
are a regular listener to Fox Sports Radio, which I
assume you are because you're listening to this podcast, which
is a spin off of the Ben Maler Show, which
(01:50):
is in the air everywhere on the vast uh Fox
Sports Radio network and over the years, and one of
the great voices that pop u up and I hear
this guy on just about every show on Fox Sports
Radio is Todd Furman. And Todd has had television shows
over the years. He's got a podcast, he's got this,
(02:13):
that and the other thing. And he was the the
early guy at FS one when they launched that back
in the day, and he had a very heavy involvement
in their gambling program. And he's got a very interesting life.
I've I've heard Todd on Fox Sports Radio shows before mine,
(02:35):
shows after mine, uh not really mine, over over the years,
and so I'm excited to catch up with him. And
I've heard some interesting things about him. Uh. Growing up
Todd is like a gambling UH prodigy UH in in
the Chicago area and just crunching the numbers at a
young age and then ending up working at the casino. So,
(02:56):
without further ado, we welcome into the Magic podcast Box here,
the one and only Todd Ferman. Todd, I am excited
to have you on. I'm a big fan. I love
the way that you are able to communicate the gambling
lingo to the layman um. But how did our paths
(03:18):
not cross more regularly over the years here at Fox
Sports Radio? How did this happen? Todd? You know, I'm
never quite sure, Ben. I mean, you get into a
routine and you become a creature of habit and with
so many personalities that do things the right way on
Fox Sports Radio, and everybody with guests better late than
never the way I look at it. So I'm looking
forward us having a little bit more long form chat
(03:40):
today than we ever could with an eighth and seminute
radio spot. Yeah, and I gotta tell you for years
on Sunday night, you know, doing the the overnight shot.
Come in Sunday night and I would hear you on
with Arnie and UH and playing and those guys or whatever,
and it was just ranting, and how do you have
you dealt with the staking genius because he's a he's
(04:00):
an interesting cat, that guy. Oh, or working with Arnie,
you know what. It goes back even before his time
of Fox Sports Radio and he was doing a Sunday
morning sports gambling show across Canada as well. And so
I've known Arnie for years and you have to take
him with the grain of salt. One of the nicest
guys out there, but there is nobody a bigger fan
of his lame brain series and completely unfounded approaches to
(04:24):
the gambling markets than Arnie. So you have to make
sure you're on your toes. You know, you're inevitably going
to get him drinking his Arizona Wildcats, his Miami Dolphins,
or his New York Nick's kool aid, and you kind
of have to chop out his legs. Thankfully, for the
rest of us, and probably not for Arnie's sake, none
of those teams have been really relevant as far as
the national landscape is concerned. So it makes him much
(04:44):
more tolerable on a weekly week basis. Now, heaven helped
all of us of his Arizona Wildcats under a first
year head coach, find a way to get all the
way to New Orleans in the final four. There's a
good chance that I won't be picking up my phone
on those Sunday nights during the tournament for many of
our lovely Fox producers. Well, yeah know and Todd I.
I knew Arnie a long time, even before foxbus rade
also and he lost when he came to l A
(05:06):
to do he did like an afternoon drive show. He
was from Chicago. He came to l A, not from Chicago.
He came back to l A to do an afternoon
drive show, and he immediately started ripping the Lakers and
in these are this is a long time they had
Shack and Kobe right, and they're never gonna win anything.
And so he made a wager on the air. He's like, well,
(05:27):
if the Lakers win, I'll wash everyone's car. And then,
of course the Lakers went on this little run. They
won a bunch of championships, and so Arnie we we
had to buy out a car dealership, not a car dealership,
a car wash place and washed everyone's car. But then
Arnie just sat around and smoked cigars in the Hawaiian shirt,
and the rest of us at the radio station ended
(05:48):
up washing all the cars. It was that, you know,
he is the stinking jeans. But I want to learn
more about Utah all right now. The word on the
street is that you were like you were a gambling
prodigy growing up that yet you know, even in you
know school, going back to like high school or before that,
you were you were studying the numbers back then. Is
this an accurate portrayal of a young Todd Ferman? It
(06:12):
is a fairly accurate portrayal, But prodigy is probably the
nicest way, uh to put it. There were a lot
of folks, whether they be coaches or teachers throughout my
pathway to this fine occupation that might have used the
term degenerate more often than not when you look at
the dynamics in play. But I always had a passion
for sports and an aptitude for numbers. So it was
(06:32):
a perfect confluence of events. My old man had been
involved in the stock market, so some of that gambling
DNA obviously gets passed down from generation to generation. Uh.
And from the earliest days I can remember on Sunday
mornings driving a hockey practice during you know, November and
December and January were absolutely frigid in the Chicago suburbs.
My dad would hand me the Chicago Tribune or the
(06:55):
Chicago Sun Times. We go through the glands at Culver
Lines back in the day, or Danny Sheridan, and we
go back and forth picking an NFL games in college football,
whether it was Bett in a bucket game or I
had a paper is dunkin donuts at eight am after
we wrapped up hockey practice and those frozen ice rink.
And then we got to a point where he goes,
you know what, I'm just gonna let you pick all
the games. I'd start to beat him a little bit,
(07:16):
and he was trying to figure out a method to
my madness. But fast forward to my time in high school,
and of course the first thing that you want to
try and do is find an on campus bookie, because
you're not sending money to Coasta, Rica or Antiguo or
some of the islands back then, see if I find
a guy that's taken ten bucks a game. You're studying,
you know, off the old school newspapers because you don't
(07:36):
want your internet history to be made available for public consumption,
and you gradually try and make a book here there,
and you come home with a pocket full of cash,
and of course the first inclination from your parents as
they think you're selling drugs because that's the quickest fix
to being able to make money at that age. And
lo and behold, it kind of started my path along
the way at a very young age. But the one thing,
(07:57):
as much as I want to bust my dad's balls
and have to get my mom credit, they were always supportive, um,
and I have them to thank for the pathway I've
been able to carve out for a professional standpoint where
they went, hey, look, we don't encourage underage gambling, so
I don't want to give that kind of task that
endorsement here, but pretty much said, hey, if this is
something you're passionate about, go about doing things the right way.
Understand the pitfall. Uh. And I tell my lucky stars
(08:19):
every day that I've been able to turn you know what,
for most is a recreational pursuit into a full time career.
And I'd like to think that I helped have a
hand in conjunction with the folks at Fox during you know,
Fox Sports Live in its infancy, taking mainstream taking sports
gambling and gradually bringing it into the mainstream to the
point now where we've really seen a huge boom since
(08:40):
pass was repealed a couple of years ago. Yeah. No,
and you've done a great job. I remember when I
was younger and listening to guys talk about gambling. It
was always like kind of a shady guy with a
New York accent on the radio on like Saturday morning
who bought some airtime and said, I want to get
your boat. You know, you gotta listen to my picks.
I'm gonna get you. But I kind of kind of
just like under the table type stuff. But you obviously
(09:03):
have a much better delivery. You played hockey there, Were
you good at hockey? How far did you get in hockey? Yeah?
I was decent back in the day. I mean, let's
not kid ourselves. When you're born of Jewish heritage and
your five foot tenant about a hundred forty pounds soaking wet,
you have a ceiling as far as your athletic pursuits
are concerned. So there were never any delusions of grandeur
(09:24):
and a chance to play in the NHL. But I
went through the US Development program, participated in a lot
of big camps as a teenager in a couple of
state championships, have an All New England Award to my
credit TAUH, but never got to Division one level. Will
played three years of Divisions three and that was about
as far as my hockey career could take me. So
I love my experiences, obviously being v being able to
(09:46):
play a sport that competitively for so many years. But
when I look at my friends that were real good
in basketball and you realize that they get to go
to warm weather destinations during the winter, it's a hell
of a lot more exotic than spending a weekend in
December January and so Ernie, Ontario or Sudbury or thunder
Bay letting people fire vulcanized rubber at your head for
the better part of forty five minutes. So probably not
(10:08):
the best career choice in that particular regard, but I
love playing goalie. You gotta be a little bit nuts
and probably helped explain, you know, why I'm at this
point as far as my profession is concerned. And like
you know, anybody who plays youth sports and pursues him
you know, hopefully to the intercollegiate level, knows the valuable
lessons being a teammate teaches you that you can then
translate into other walks of life. Now you still you
(10:31):
played hockey. Are you a hockey fan? Do you consider
yourself a hockey fan asn't a grown up as an
adult and doing everything that you do, or do you
have you moved on completely from the sport of hockey. No,
it's funny. Actually, So I grew up a New York
Ranger fan in the Chicago subbers my old man from
New York. And so I was a Nick fan, a
Ranger fan, a Giant fan, and a Yankees fan. And
(10:51):
I remember when the Rangers broke their fifty year curse
when in the Stanley Cooper runner around the house as
a twelve year old, and so I followed the Ranger
all the way through. Got to the point in college
where I, you know, I don't want to say disenfranchise
with the sport, but maybe that's the best word to
kind of describe it. And I had a falling out.
Full disclosure, I haven't put on my gear to stop
(11:11):
a po since the end of my junior season in college.
No men's league, you know, street hockey, none of that
kind of thing. So, you know, I lost a little
bit of disaster for the game. But when Vegas ended
up getting an expansion franchise, the Golden Knights, as I
think they're in their fifth season, it all kind of
blends together. I go, you know what, the hello that
we're gonna get back into the sport. We're gonna kick
the tires in some season tickets. It'll be fun and
(11:34):
figure out the best way to get involved. Uh, And
it's really reinvigorated my love for the game. You have
been a season ticket holder since the first season, which
you know was a relatively charmed existence before they came
up short against the Caps in the Stanley Cup Final.
But I do love the sport. It's probably the one
winter sport other than football, that I follow the most
intently on a night in, night out. Basis more so
(11:55):
than the NBA, more southern college basketball. And as you
can figure where I'm going with this, ben, it obviously
translates itself to wagerings. So I spent a ton of
time handicapping hockey from when they dropped the puck in
October until they hand out the greatest trophy in all
of sports. And you know, mill of June. Has that
changed that because I remember back in the old days,
hockey was an afterthought. Nobody really bet on hockey. And
(12:16):
you know, mainstream is has it changed because of the
game wing boom that's taken place, or is it still
way back behind all the other sports. It's probably if
you were ranking fifteen sports that people bet on, the
NHL would probably be number sixteen here in the States. Now. Granted,
in Vegas you have seen a lot more handle and
betting interest in Golden Nights games, uh, typically when they play,
(12:40):
or at least in the first couple of seasons. You know,
the money that was bet on Golden Knights game, even
if it was a full card, would trump every other
game combined. But it's not a market that's really lent
itself to the recreational better. I think a lot of
times money lines can be tricky areas for them to navigate.
When you look at over under his net five and
a half six range, it probably ends up getting included
(13:01):
in more betting tickets as parley fodder uh than anything else.
And I think the other part was hockey that's similar
to baseball, that can become challenging for a lot of folks,
Is it's actually a volume game. I mean normally for
the other sports I bet it's more methodical and trying
to limit some of my exposure. But when you're talking
about big price tags, you can have ebbs and flows,
(13:21):
and you can have all sorts of puck luck going
your way and overtime God smiling upon you, and then
things can sour pretty quickly. Is it's a game that's
got a ton of high variants because as we know,
there's no better equalizer in any sport on any level
than a hot goalie. And anyone who's bet this sport
can know what it's like when your team has a
forty shot advantage and you feel like, no matter what
you throw at the opposing that minder, it's never going in.
(13:43):
So I want to go back when you you get
into the gambling business, how old were you when you
started working at one of the casinos? What roughly what
age were you? So I did it run? I was
right out of college. So I took a year off
between high school and college. UM and so I graduated
a year later, which would have put me a two
thousand five graduated back east. I end up coming out
(14:03):
to Vegas in the spring of two thousand and six
and got right into the gambling business then. Now, I
didn't start my career at Caesar's behind the counter working
in the sports book. I was doing more of the
corporate finance, a lot of special events, helping design casino floors,
which was an incredible experience for somebody to kind of
see the fruits of their labor manifest itself when you're
(14:24):
walking through Caesar's on a Saturday night at twelve o'clock
with all that energy and you realize, hey, look, there's
a reason there's a roulette table in that spot, three
card pokers there. Uh, and you know double deck black
jacket is because you've suggested to the table games operators,
these are the ways that we can help maximize some
of our revenues. So that was an invaluable experience. But
always knew that I wanted to get into the sports
(14:45):
side of things, so it was forever grateful that I
had a mentor in the space who's still very much
involved in sports gambling out here named Chuck S. Desito,
who I would go down and spend the weekends behind
the counter Caesar's in addition to my Monday through Friday
to kind of ask some of the dumb questions. It
is about why lines moved this way, how it set
futures market, how you profile the customers. This, of course
(15:05):
all when we did all of our business over the
counter instead of any other way. And it provided, you know,
more or less the perfect foundation from a comprehensive business
standpoint to learn race and sports, to learn the casino
side of things. And it was probably about three and
a half years, the timelines a little bit blurry before
I was able to transition fully into the sports betting
business itself. So when when you cross over, when you
(15:27):
you get a little taste of it, and then you
cross over and you've been following the stuff since you
were a kid, so now you're a young adult. Was
it like you imagine what you know behind the scenes?
Was it better? Was it? Was it worse when you
when you get a little taste of it. Oh, it
was a lot worse. I mean, I'm not gonna set
here and I'm not gonna sit here and sugarcoat it
(15:49):
at all. I mean, I think people see sports gambling
and they think, oh, it's always end to end excitement.
You're always on the edge of your seat, sweating out
you know, seven figure decisions. No, that couldn't be further
from the truth. Saturdays and Sundays in the fall, there's
no better place to be than in the sports book.
But Tuesdays in July, when you have nothing but baseball
(16:09):
going on, it can be a miserable existence trying to
figure out what you're doing as far as administrative paperwork,
the babysitting of staff and everything else that comes along
with it. Uh. And it's a cliche that truly resonates
with me. Sports books basically are the same thing as
when you build churches for Easter Sunday. You're busy one
day a weekend on some of the Marquee holidays, but
(16:30):
for the lions share of time, there ain't much going
on and there's nothing sexy about it. It's not guys
sitting in the back room smoking cigars, uh, drinking Louis Trey,
trying to come up with numbers on what they're gonna
hang for getaway day on a Wednesday. Between the Marlins
and brewers. It's a lot of price takers and that
sort of thing. But the industry, to its credit, has
(16:50):
changed a little bit. I mean, with more mobile flexibility.
You know, the creativity is a lot more pronounced than
what it was back in the day when we had
relatively limited menus for sports betters. But it was a
lot more red tape and paperwork than anybody told me
about before I fully transitioned into working in the racist
sports room. And you've been all over this, so so
(17:10):
I got to ask you. Now, I love amateur gambling,
but but how much when when they're setting the lines
behind the scenes, how much of that is just based
on punching numbers into a computer? And how much of
that is a bunch of guys get on the phone
going back and forth saying, you know, here's what I think,
you know, this is what the line should be. Like,
what's the percentage based computers versus the human element? Well,
(17:33):
I mean this day and age, I mean the models
are so sophisticated that most of the big operators use
that the computer does a line share of the heavy lifting. Now,
the computer models are only as strong as the inputs
and the weighted values that oddsmakers will use, the same
way sports betters do when they're building out their models. Um,
and I was always taught at a young age, and
I think it's still resonates now that you can put
(17:54):
your opinion into numbers when you open them. But you
know what your opinion is worth. It's worth one bet
from a risk acted better. So if I over the
game two and a half and the rest of the market,
or let's use it, you know, let's use the number
like four. The rest of the betting market for an
NFL game is four and a half. And I open
a game at four and one of your sharpest customers
comes in and they're betting a favorite with you at
minus four. You're not gonna be stubborn and say, my models,
(18:16):
spit this out. You're moving the number and you're gonna
constantly play that cat and mouse games throughout the course
of the line's life cycle figuring out where that point
spread is. The one good thing I will say is
people get smarter and smarter, and they're a ton of
sharp bookmakers, not only here in Vegas, across the country,
but around the world. You're starting to see a little
bit more variants and prices and some of the models
(18:37):
that are out there because people realize, hey, look, the
only way you make money when you're in the sports
betting spaces by taking a bet, and if you hang
the same numbers as every other book in the world,
well you're not gonna be able to kind of match with.
So I applaud the way the space is going. I
think it's getting a lot more innovative. But the old
school days of using the wax pencil the whiteboard and
(18:58):
guys kind of scribbling things down in notebook before they
hang a number that maybe four or five points different
than what their neighbor has down the street are behind
them because technology has just prevented that. Whereas I could
go on right now we're having this conversation, and if
there's a number that's one, one and a half points
off and I feel I need to bet it, I
can get a bet down without ever leaving the confines
in my office. Yeah, and again for the for the novice,
(19:20):
I can't assume everyone has an immense gambling knowledge. But
the whole point, when you're running a gambling operation, you
don't really necessarily care who wins, right, You just want
to make sure the money's even. That's how you make
your money, right, You don't really concerned about you know, hey,
this team's gotta win your We're just as long as
you have money on even side, you're gonna win right
on each side. Right, Definitely, there's a huge power that
(19:41):
comes from the eleven to tend that the house has
working uh in its favor. But at the same time,
you know, the idea that money is balanced on most
games is a little bit of a myth because when
you look at it, professional betters have a lot more
say in terms of how the market gets shaped. And
you know, one of the age old thought processes it's
still a flies now, is that every dollar that enters
(20:02):
the sports betting marketplace isn't the scene. Uh, if I
were to go in and make a bet you know
what any of these casinos for substantially smaller stake and
say someone like Arnie, they may respect my opinion a
lot more despite being lopsided on a particular game. And
so that's why you always hear the terminology and I
use it the same pros versus Joe's, or you hear
reverse line movement and things along those lines where the
(20:24):
money may not be balanced, but sharper opinions are on
one particular side of the game. And that's how the
book tries to set things up. They're more than happy
to pay out their sharp betters if they have more
than enough recreational action on the other side that tells them,
you know what our number is, right, We're happy to
take one sided action. And a similar scenario that we
saw unfolding the Divisional round. I mean, you had professional
(20:45):
money that came in on San Francisco, recreational bettors couldn't
get enough of betting Green Bay and teasers betting them
on the money line just to win outright or lay
in the points. But the number never moved past six,
and books end up reaping a huge windfall from those
particular higgins, more so than what you'll see on a
Big West basketball game between Cal Santa Barber and Cal
(21:05):
State Northridge that tips off at eleven o'clock Eastern time
on a Thursday night during college troop scene. Sure, and
the other thing about it, when you talk about the
gambling uh space right now, this is like a gold
rust the last couple of years, and it's just going
to continue here with the as you said, a few
years ago, they lifted the federal law on gambling, and
so what's the end game? And this ultimately, I don't
think every state's gonna have gambling because of the Bible
(21:27):
Belt or whatnot. But how many states when this is
all done here, when the dust settles, Todd will have
legalized sports betting because it's not gonna be all fifty.
But what's what's the number at? Yeah? I mean, honestly,
when I look at it, and this is an indictment
of anyone's politics or anything along those lines, but you
know you're gonna have states you talk about the Bible
Belt that are going to be significantly more conservative than others.
(21:51):
I think Utah at last check, and I could be
wrong on this, so I'm sure people pointed out on
social media or a variety of other ways, might be
the only state that has no form of gambling in
any capacity, and I mean casinos, uh state lottery sports betting.
So I think that's the state that will take a
little while. But I would say, I mean, what we're
sitting here at the end of January two, you know,
(22:12):
we were having the same discussion four or five years
from now. I would stay with a very high level
of confidence that forty two to forty four states would
have some form of sports betting, whether being only a
couple of remaining holdouts that realize Hey, look, if our
state residents are going to bet, we want to get
our portion of the tax revenue rather than having them
drive across state lines to kind of get down on games. Yeah,
(22:33):
and how how concerned to the people at the casinos
here that when California gets gambling. I get it's supposed
to happen already. I think COVID delayed that. But when
that eventually happens, is that gonna gonna hurt the casinos there?
The people coming to the bigs doesn't really matter. Is
it is a small percentage of people that go just
to bet on sports from California. Yeah, it may change
(22:55):
the dynamic around big events like the super Bowl in
the n c A tournament, um where Vegas has always
been the mecca for guys and girls to kind of
come together and have their betting bonanza for the better
part of a weekend or seventy two hours, whatever it
may be. But I think when you're looking at sports betting,
it's just a way to kind of wet the appetite.
You know. The one great thing about sports betting, I
(23:17):
look at it through a slightly different lens than most
people because I see it as a behavior or I'm
doing it on my own with a higher level of professionalism.
A lot of times, you know, emphasis on wins and losses,
but there is a huge social component to it, and
so I think Vegas is never going to lose its
a lure in that particular regard. Now there's a chance
that obviously if they built massive sports books uh throughout Riverside,
(23:38):
Inland Empire and other spots, that would people flock to
Vegas for NFL football on the weekend. Probably not, But
I don't think sports books out here really worry about it.
We continue to break all sorts of record numbers as
far as betting handle is concerned, despite their being you know,
two or three states that seemingly come online every six months.
So I think it's the thought process that rising hides
(24:00):
raise all ships. Uh In Vegas is still kind of
the epicenter for sports betting. The unfortunate part is that
we don't have all the same diverse options that you
can in surrounding states. I mean, you go to Colorado,
their newer operators and better bonus programs, the same thing
as Arizona. But Vegas still holds down the old guard
and uh, I don't think even when California comes online,
(24:20):
which hopefully happens sooner rather than later, that you're going
to see a huge drop off in sports betting handle here.
Well and toun I, I remember a couple of years
ago the story came out that with the New Jersey
they actually have more people betting than in in Vegas.
And I guess New York is now online, right, so
they can start, you know, sports wagering in New York. So,
but is everything controlled in Vegas like the way I
(24:42):
see it? Maybe I'm completely wrong the way I understand it,
Like the lines, these other states don't really know what
they're doing, so they turned to people in Vegas and
the casinos in Vegas that are based there to set
up their operations. Is that Is that an accurate portrayal
of how this is working state by state? And my
my kind of on the right path here and not quite.
And the only reason I say that is because every
(25:05):
major sports betting house has their own risk management team
based in various states. So when you look at you know,
fan Duel, for example, most of their trading team is
based in the New Jersey area, and it controls the
betting markets and all the states where they're active, but
you look at a bet MGM or a bet MGM.
I believe it is back East now as well. But
(25:25):
Caesar's is out here Caesar slash William hill Um. You're
talking about circus sports and a couple of the other books.
So it all depends where the risk management teams are based.
Above all else that Vegas isn't the be all end all,
but the old school thought process, that Vegas happens to
know things faster than anybody else. It's probably still a
little bit sexier than saying the people in Weehawk in
(25:46):
New Jersey have a better idea of how these games
are gonna fall. Yeah, that doesn't really work well on
radio or if you make a movie. You know you
don't you don't necessarily want that, I don't think, but
uh no, exactly, Caecucus in Newark aren't nearly as sexy
as a bright light of the Las Vegas trip. Yeah.
The other thing I wanted to run by here they
call the exotic bets are the prop bets. And when
(26:08):
you were when you were crunching the numbers back then,
when you were board out of your mind waiting for
the Brewers game to finish back back in the day,
how much time, how much time is invested on that?
Is that also just pushing stuff into the computer and
that's all you need on the Some of these the
exotic bets are insane when we get closer. I know,
the Super Bowl is a couple of weeks away. That's
(26:28):
where the things get really off the hook. But but
what what goes into making those things? Yeah, I mean
it's a lot of the same. I mean it's as
much art form as it is science. When you're talking
about crafting individual prop markets, trying to build in so uh,
you know, the main baseline from a statistical model, but
at the same time factoring in public perception. So there's
so many unique components before a number actually makes its
(26:51):
way to the betting board that I think the recreational
better or those folks near to the space but to
be honest, be completely bored by. I mean, they just
want to know how the sausage tastes. They don't necessarily
want to know how the whole thing is made. And
I think a lot of that applies to some of
the more exotic markets that are out there. The great thing, though,
is that you're seeing progressive governing bodies across various states,
allowing for oddsmakers to truly be created and create betting
(27:14):
markets that probably wouldn't have ever happened years ago. You
would have had to go to the off shore world,
and now you can go into various states have access
to them, and every state can be a little bit
different in terms of what they do allow on their
menus versus what they don't. But it's a great golden
generation of bookmakers, and I think as the industry out
the whole continues to expand, you're only going to be
(27:34):
able to recruit more talent that's going to take things
well beyond the scope and comprehension of what I was
able to do when I stop my time behind the counter.
All Right, So moving on to the actual games this weekend.
We're talking before championship weekend in the NFL, and this
obviously this podcast dropping early on a Friday, so some
things might change. But the Bengals a pretty sizeable underdog
(27:59):
against can the City Todd and they just beat them
not that long ago in the regular season. What what
is behind that number here that the Chiefs are getting
a pretty good amount at home in this game? Yeah,
I mean, Kansas City in that previous matchup closed I'll
slightly more than a field goal favorite on the road.
And to your point, the Bengals were able to win
(28:19):
that game outright thirty one. Of course, in that contest, though,
Kansas City built themselves a three score lead and then
just couldn't really get anything going on their limited possessions
in the second half. So it's one of those things
that I kind of say, buy or beware, don't put
too much stock on that particular game, because there were
some extenuating circumstances and some issues that kept the Chiefs
(28:40):
from being at full speed, especially along their offensive line.
When you look at the number here, Arrowhead can be
one of the more daunting places to play, and Joe
Burrow has passed every toust so far, at least through
the first couple of years of his young career. But
I think Kansas City will be given their undivided attention.
They know that Cincinnati got the best of them, and
when I look at his Bengals defense, I think it
(29:01):
leaves a lot to be desired. I'm not going to
fall a victim to the trap that because they were
able to keep the Raiders and Titans in check. It's
necessarily going to translate here. What's also fascinating about this game.
You see the total open in the low fifty. It's
getting bat up. I don't have a strong opinion there,
but I think Kansas City will do their part as
far as putting points on the board. I'm just not
(29:21):
sure the Bengals have enough to try and keep up.
So I would definitely leaning towards Kansas City. Lay in
the seven, and I think Kansas City goes over their
team total. As far as the full game over under,
probably not a market that'd be running the bat well
and the Yeah. But the the other thing too is
the honey Badger. Right, we're still kind of waiting for
the official word the safety. And he went out against
Buffalo and it was like, oh my god, they the
(29:42):
Chief's defense was it was terrible, uh in that game.
So you have to factor that in, right, Todd, the
you know, will will Tyron Matthew play in this game?
How effective will he be if he does end up playing? Right?
Oh percent? I mean you saw the gaping hole that
it left in that Kansas City defensive back field and
the way that the Bills went out there and attacked
in space at key junctures late in the game, the
(30:04):
big pass play over the top to Gabriel Davis. Uh,
and there's no doubt if Honey Badger is in the mix,
it's a very different ballgame. Uh. The way things unfolded.
Also for the Chiefs, a lot of optimism that they
should be able to get Rashot Fenton back in the fold.
He missed each of the last two playoff games dealing
with a back injury and one of their more underrated corners.
I think this Kansas City defensive backfield was embarrassed. I mean,
(30:26):
we know Jamaar Chase put up ridiculous Madden type numbers
the first time around, so you'd have to think that
Steve Spagnolo comes in with a different game plan, whether
it's bracketing Chase, you know, trying to take away the
middle of the field and limiting the damage that t
Higgins can do. But if Cincinnati is gonna have to
win this, they're not gonna be able to do so,
in my opinion, with their fastball. It's gonna have to
be the off speed stuff, the breaking ball, uh, and
(30:47):
everything else that Zack Taylor and company can kind of
scheme up because if the Chiefs were to go down
to the Bengals for the second time and right around
a month and it was Jamaar Chase with two plus
receiving yards for the second time as well in that span,
then you have some major fish to fry, and I
think it's a little bit more an indictment of your
lack of preparation for one of the Bengals key weapons. Well,
(31:08):
and then the other game you have the Rams in
the fort. People have been making a big deal about
the fact that the Niners have owned the Shanahan has
had mcveigh's number the one sixth straight. But as you know, Todd,
that doesn't guarantee anything, right. That just tells you what
has happened. It doesn't tell you what's going to happen
in this game. How how do you see that's a
smaller number, much smaller number the Rams favorite obviously at
(31:30):
home against the Niners on Sunday. Yeah, And that's a
great point too, because you know what happened in the past,
but history isn't always an indication of what you're going
to see in the future. So it's more important when
you break this game down to kind of unpack not
necessarily what happened, but how and why it went as
it did. And there's a reason that Kyle shanahan has
found a way to beat Sean McVeigh sixth straight time.
(31:52):
Now we can see how we want. Four of those
six meetings weren't with Matthew Stafford, so those games probably
get a little bit of an asterisk by them. But
what you can or is that in the eyes of oddsmakers,
the forty Niners have been inferior in five out of
those six that they've won outright as an underdog. And
while a lot of people fall victim to the narrative,
it's hard to be the team three times in the
same season. Hit Thory tells us that's not quite the case,
(32:13):
where teams that have swept the regular season series oftentimes
come back and win that third game in the trilogy installment. Now,
what is interesting about this. Normally, when teams play three times,
the team that won the previous two meetings sees that
third game at home. Uh, it's unusual that in the
case like we're seeing here, that the forty Niners or
a team working uphill. But we use the term at
(32:34):
home and on the road loosely as it pertains to
how forty Niners fans will travel and most likely sell
out so Fi Stadium in this so when you dig
into this one, I think it's dog or pass. And
the reason I say that is because I think Kyle
Shanahan is shown in ability to make a judgments both
on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Jamiko
Ryan's put together an outstanding game planned last week against
(32:54):
Green Bay and fridgid temperatures and that defense battle because
the offense didn't give them any help. As we know,
they didn't score a single offensive touchdown in that contest.
And to go into a place, a hostile territory against
a first ballot Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers speaks volumes
about being strong and all three facets of the game.
I think Kyle will find a way to get Brandon Ayou,
George Kittle, Deebo Samuel all involved. The Niners will be
(33:17):
able to generate pressure with their front four. And what
we can't ignore is in Week eighteen when the Niners
were able to battle back against the Rams, they did
that without their top cover corner and Immanuel Moseley. I
just get the feeling that this is a forty nine
scene that's living a bit of a charmed life. I
think the number is a touch inflated when you factor
all of that in along with home field advantage that
I don't think will be relevant here. I think the
(33:37):
forty niners are extremely live catching three and a half
and would not be stunned at all if they pull
off their third straight road ups out of this proceeding
well tidd to someone who that is biased towards the Rams,
I don't like what you're saying right now, but I
don't disagree with it. I would definitely from a from
a gambling standpoint, I think these teams are pretty actually
pretty even. I think it will come down to a
like a fuel goal type game. I'd be surprised if
(33:58):
it's a blowout either way, mainly because of Jimmy Garoppolo,
who I don't think so all that all that great,
but I think he's gotten what three weeks almost without
a touchdown now or something like that. But we will
find out. So honestly, you know, ben pretty wild when
you dig into Jimmy Garoppolo in his career, he's had
eleven games where he hasn't thrown a single touchdown pass.
His win loss record in those games is nine and two.
(34:20):
He's three and oh in the playoffs where he doesn't
throw a single touchdown pass, and the common denominator for
the forty nine and the four playoff wins where he's
been under a center, he's thrown a grand total of
seventy one passes in those games, so less than twenty
a game. So there's no doubt the forty nine ers
success is directly correlated to their ability to play defense,
create short field, and more importantly, run the ball. But
(34:41):
I'm not in that Jimmy Garoppolo detractor camp. I think
he can step up and raise his level of play
when's needed. Uh, And we'll see if Sunday he's able
to do that and maybe come up with a big
thrower too, much like he did in the waning section.
He even get the forty niners at this point, but
that improbable come back Week eighteen against the same Rams.
Al Right, well, thank you man. I know you've been
so you've got like a million things. You're always juggling
(35:02):
random different media gigs and all that, so I appreciate
you coming on. We'll have you on again, and uh,
and thank you. I appreciate it. Hey, no, thank you
so much for having me on. Glad we had a
chance to finally catch up. Like you said, I know
our past having crossed the ton during our time at
Fox Sports Radio, but hopefully we can change that going forward.
And most importantly, though Ben, best of welcome your picks
(35:22):
this weekend. My friend sad to see football season go
and the fact that we only have three meetingful games
left on the docket before they hand out that Lombardi
Trophy has so far two weeks from late January
Ka boom. If you thought four hours a day, minutes
a week was enough, I think again. He's the last
remnants of the old republic a sole fashion of fairness.
He treats crackheads in the ghetto gutter the same as
the rich pill poppers in the penthouse to clearing house
of hot takes, break free for something special. The Fifth
(00:23):
Hour with Ben Maller starts right now in the air everywhere,
back at it. A new weekend is upon us, another
addition of the Fifth Hour with Ben Maller and Danny
g Here we are kicking off a championship weekend in
(00:48):
the NFL, and I was thinking about it. I was like, well, listen,
who do I want to talk to for championship weekend
in the NFL. And there's a handful of roughly five
people in the gambling world that I think are great
radio And one of those five people we are lucky
(01:09):
enough to have on today on this edition of the
Fifth Hour. And it is a conversation because, as you know,
during the Overnight show, five nights a week, four hours
a night, we only have paid callers that we talked to.
We do not have any guests. Paid guests. If you have.
I don't like the term guests. I feel like that
(01:29):
the term guest is blah, bad term. So instead it's
just people I like to hang out with and I
want to learn more about and and all that. And
one of those people is Todd Ferman. Now, if you
are a regular listener to Fox Sports Radio, which I
assume you are because you're listening to this podcast, which
is a spin off of the Ben Maler Show, which
(01:50):
is in the air everywhere on the vast uh Fox
Sports Radio network and over the years, and one of
the great voices that pop u up and I hear
this guy on just about every show on Fox Sports
Radio is Todd Furman. And Todd has had television shows
over the years. He's got a podcast, he's got this,
(02:13):
that and the other thing. And he was the the
early guy at FS one when they launched that back
in the day, and he had a very heavy involvement
in their gambling program. And he's got a very interesting life.
I've I've heard Todd on Fox Sports Radio shows before mine,
(02:35):
shows after mine, uh not really mine, over over the years,
and so I'm excited to catch up with him. And
I've heard some interesting things about him. Uh. Growing up
Todd is like a gambling UH prodigy UH in in
the Chicago area and just crunching the numbers at a
young age and then ending up working at the casino. So,
(02:56):
without further ado, we welcome into the Magic podcast Box here,
the one and only Todd Ferman. Todd, I am excited
to have you on. I'm a big fan. I love
the way that you are able to communicate the gambling
lingo to the layman um. But how did our paths
(03:18):
not cross more regularly over the years here at Fox
Sports Radio? How did this happen? Todd? You know, I'm
never quite sure, Ben. I mean, you get into a
routine and you become a creature of habit and with
so many personalities that do things the right way on
Fox Sports Radio, and everybody with guests better late than
never the way I look at it. So I'm looking
forward us having a little bit more long form chat
(03:40):
today than we ever could with an eighth and seminute
radio spot. Yeah, and I gotta tell you for years
on Sunday night, you know, doing the the overnight shot.
Come in Sunday night and I would hear you on
with Arnie and UH and playing and those guys or whatever,
and it was just ranting, and how do you have
you dealt with the staking genius because he's a he's
(04:00):
an interesting cat, that guy. Oh, or working with Arnie,
you know what. It goes back even before his time
of Fox Sports Radio and he was doing a Sunday
morning sports gambling show across Canada as well. And so
I've known Arnie for years and you have to take
him with the grain of salt. One of the nicest
guys out there, but there is nobody a bigger fan
of his lame brain series and completely unfounded approaches to
(04:24):
the gambling markets than Arnie. So you have to make
sure you're on your toes. You know, you're inevitably going
to get him drinking his Arizona Wildcats, his Miami Dolphins,
or his New York Nick's kool aid, and you kind
of have to chop out his legs. Thankfully, for the
rest of us, and probably not for Arnie's sake, none
of those teams have been really relevant as far as
the national landscape is concerned. So it makes him much
(04:44):
more tolerable on a weekly week basis. Now, heaven helped
all of us of his Arizona Wildcats under a first
year head coach, find a way to get all the
way to New Orleans in the final four. There's a
good chance that I won't be picking up my phone
on those Sunday nights during the tournament for many of
our lovely Fox producers. Well, yeah know and Todd I.
I knew Arnie a long time, even before foxbus rade
also and he lost when he came to l A
(05:06):
to do he did like an afternoon drive show. He
was from Chicago. He came to l A, not from Chicago.
He came back to l A to do an afternoon
drive show, and he immediately started ripping the Lakers and
in these are this is a long time they had
Shack and Kobe right, and they're never gonna win anything.
And so he made a wager on the air. He's like, well,
(05:27):
if the Lakers win, I'll wash everyone's car. And then,
of course the Lakers went on this little run. They
won a bunch of championships, and so Arnie we we
had to buy out a car dealership, not a car dealership,
a car wash place and washed everyone's car. But then
Arnie just sat around and smoked cigars in the Hawaiian shirt,
and the rest of us at the radio station ended
(05:48):
up washing all the cars. It was that, you know,
he is the stinking jeans. But I want to learn
more about Utah all right now. The word on the
street is that you were like you were a gambling
prodigy growing up that yet you know, even in you
know school, going back to like high school or before that,
you were you were studying the numbers back then. Is
this an accurate portrayal of a young Todd Ferman? It
(06:12):
is a fairly accurate portrayal, But prodigy is probably the
nicest way, uh to put it. There were a lot
of folks, whether they be coaches or teachers throughout my
pathway to this fine occupation that might have used the
term degenerate more often than not when you look at
the dynamics in play. But I always had a passion
for sports and an aptitude for numbers. So it was
(06:32):
a perfect confluence of events. My old man had been
involved in the stock market, so some of that gambling
DNA obviously gets passed down from generation to generation. Uh.
And from the earliest days I can remember on Sunday
mornings driving a hockey practice during you know, November and
December and January were absolutely frigid in the Chicago suburbs.
My dad would hand me the Chicago Tribune or the
(06:55):
Chicago Sun Times. We go through the glands at Culver
Lines back in the day, or Danny Sheridan, and we
go back and forth picking an NFL games in college football,
whether it was Bett in a bucket game or I
had a paper is dunkin donuts at eight am after
we wrapped up hockey practice and those frozen ice rink.
And then we got to a point where he goes,
you know what, I'm just gonna let you pick all
the games. I'd start to beat him a little bit,
(07:16):
and he was trying to figure out a method to
my madness. But fast forward to my time in high school,
and of course the first thing that you want to
try and do is find an on campus bookie, because
you're not sending money to Coasta, Rica or Antiguo or
some of the islands back then, see if I find
a guy that's taken ten bucks a game. You're studying,
you know, off the old school newspapers because you don't
(07:36):
want your internet history to be made available for public consumption,
and you gradually try and make a book here there,
and you come home with a pocket full of cash,
and of course the first inclination from your parents as
they think you're selling drugs because that's the quickest fix
to being able to make money at that age. And
lo and behold, it kind of started my path along
the way at a very young age. But the one thing,
(07:57):
as much as I want to bust my dad's balls
and have to get my mom credit, they were always supportive, um,
and I have them to thank for the pathway I've
been able to carve out for a professional standpoint where
they went, hey, look, we don't encourage underage gambling, so
I don't want to give that kind of task that
endorsement here, but pretty much said, hey, if this is
something you're passionate about, go about doing things the right way.
Understand the pitfall. Uh. And I tell my lucky stars
(08:19):
every day that I've been able to turn you know what,
for most is a recreational pursuit into a full time career.
And I'd like to think that I helped have a
hand in conjunction with the folks at Fox during you know,
Fox Sports Live in its infancy, taking mainstream taking sports
gambling and gradually bringing it into the mainstream to the
point now where we've really seen a huge boom since
(08:40):
pass was repealed a couple of years ago. Yeah. No,
and you've done a great job. I remember when I
was younger and listening to guys talk about gambling. It
was always like kind of a shady guy with a
New York accent on the radio on like Saturday morning
who bought some airtime and said, I want to get
your boat. You know, you gotta listen to my picks.
I'm gonna get you. But I kind of kind of
just like under the table type stuff. But you obviously
(09:03):
have a much better delivery. You played hockey there, Were
you good at hockey? How far did you get in hockey? Yeah?
I was decent back in the day. I mean, let's
not kid ourselves. When you're born of Jewish heritage and
your five foot tenant about a hundred forty pounds soaking wet,
you have a ceiling as far as your athletic pursuits
are concerned. So there were never any delusions of grandeur
(09:24):
and a chance to play in the NHL. But I
went through the US Development program, participated in a lot
of big camps as a teenager in a couple of
state championships, have an All New England Award to my
credit TAUH, but never got to Division one level. Will
played three years of Divisions three and that was about
as far as my hockey career could take me. So
I love my experiences, obviously being v being able to
(09:46):
play a sport that competitively for so many years. But
when I look at my friends that were real good
in basketball and you realize that they get to go
to warm weather destinations during the winter, it's a hell
of a lot more exotic than spending a weekend in
December January and so Ernie, Ontario or Sudbury or thunder
Bay letting people fire vulcanized rubber at your head for
the better part of forty five minutes. So probably not
(10:08):
the best career choice in that particular regard, but I
love playing goalie. You gotta be a little bit nuts
and probably helped explain, you know, why I'm at this
point as far as my profession is concerned. And like
you know, anybody who plays youth sports and pursues him
you know, hopefully to the intercollegiate level, knows the valuable
lessons being a teammate teaches you that you can then
translate into other walks of life. Now you still you
(10:31):
played hockey. Are you a hockey fan? Do you consider
yourself a hockey fan asn't a grown up as an
adult and doing everything that you do, or do you
have you moved on completely from the sport of hockey. No,
it's funny. Actually, So I grew up a New York
Ranger fan in the Chicago subbers my old man from
New York. And so I was a Nick fan, a
Ranger fan, a Giant fan, and a Yankees fan. And
(10:51):
I remember when the Rangers broke their fifty year curse
when in the Stanley Cooper runner around the house as
a twelve year old, and so I followed the Ranger
all the way through. Got to the point in college
where I, you know, I don't want to say disenfranchise
with the sport, but maybe that's the best word to
kind of describe it. And I had a falling out.
Full disclosure, I haven't put on my gear to stop
(11:11):
a po since the end of my junior season in college.
No men's league, you know, street hockey, none of that
kind of thing. So, you know, I lost a little
bit of disaster for the game. But when Vegas ended
up getting an expansion franchise, the Golden Knights, as I
think they're in their fifth season, it all kind of
blends together. I go, you know what, the hello that
we're gonna get back into the sport. We're gonna kick
the tires in some season tickets. It'll be fun and
(11:34):
figure out the best way to get involved. Uh, And
it's really reinvigorated my love for the game. You have
been a season ticket holder since the first season, which
you know was a relatively charmed existence before they came
up short against the Caps in the Stanley Cup Final.
But I do love the sport. It's probably the one
winter sport other than football, that I follow the most
intently on a night in, night out. Basis more so
(11:55):
than the NBA, more southern college basketball. And as you
can figure where I'm going with this, ben, it obviously
translates itself to wagerings. So I spent a ton of
time handicapping hockey from when they dropped the puck in
October until they hand out the greatest trophy in all
of sports. And you know, mill of June. Has that
changed that because I remember back in the old days,
hockey was an afterthought. Nobody really bet on hockey. And
(12:16):
you know, mainstream is has it changed because of the
game wing boom that's taken place, or is it still
way back behind all the other sports. It's probably if
you were ranking fifteen sports that people bet on, the
NHL would probably be number sixteen here in the States. Now. Granted,
in Vegas you have seen a lot more handle and
betting interest in Golden Nights games, uh, typically when they play,
(12:40):
or at least in the first couple of seasons. You know,
the money that was bet on Golden Knights game, even
if it was a full card, would trump every other
game combined. But it's not a market that's really lent
itself to the recreational better. I think a lot of
times money lines can be tricky areas for them to navigate.
When you look at over under his net five and
a half six range, it probably ends up getting included
(13:01):
in more betting tickets as parley fodder uh than anything else.
And I think the other part was hockey that's similar
to baseball, that can become challenging for a lot of folks,
Is it's actually a volume game. I mean normally for
the other sports I bet it's more methodical and trying
to limit some of my exposure. But when you're talking
about big price tags, you can have ebbs and flows,
(13:21):
and you can have all sorts of puck luck going
your way and overtime God smiling upon you, and then
things can sour pretty quickly. Is it's a game that's
got a ton of high variants because as we know,
there's no better equalizer in any sport on any level
than a hot goalie. And anyone who's bet this sport
can know what it's like when your team has a
forty shot advantage and you feel like, no matter what
you throw at the opposing that minder, it's never going in.
(13:43):
So I want to go back when you you get
into the gambling business, how old were you when you
started working at one of the casinos? What roughly what
age were you? So I did it run? I was
right out of college. So I took a year off
between high school and college. UM and so I graduated
a year later, which would have put me a two
thousand five graduated back east. I end up coming out
(14:03):
to Vegas in the spring of two thousand and six
and got right into the gambling business then. Now, I
didn't start my career at Caesar's behind the counter working
in the sports book. I was doing more of the
corporate finance, a lot of special events, helping design casino floors,
which was an incredible experience for somebody to kind of
see the fruits of their labor manifest itself when you're
(14:24):
walking through Caesar's on a Saturday night at twelve o'clock
with all that energy and you realize, hey, look, there's
a reason there's a roulette table in that spot, three
card pokers there. Uh, and you know double deck black
jacket is because you've suggested to the table games operators,
these are the ways that we can help maximize some
of our revenues. So that was an invaluable experience. But
always knew that I wanted to get into the sports
(14:45):
side of things, so it was forever grateful that I
had a mentor in the space who's still very much
involved in sports gambling out here named Chuck S. Desito,
who I would go down and spend the weekends behind
the counter Caesar's in addition to my Monday through Friday
to kind of ask some of the dumb questions. It
is about why lines moved this way, how it set
futures market, how you profile the customers. This, of course
(15:05):
all when we did all of our business over the
counter instead of any other way. And it provided, you know,
more or less the perfect foundation from a comprehensive business
standpoint to learn race and sports, to learn the casino
side of things. And it was probably about three and
a half years, the timelines a little bit blurry before
I was able to transition fully into the sports betting
business itself. So when when you cross over, when you
(15:27):
you get a little taste of it, and then you
cross over and you've been following the stuff since you
were a kid, so now you're a young adult. Was
it like you imagine what you know behind the scenes?
Was it better? Was it? Was it worse when you
when you get a little taste of it. Oh, it
was a lot worse. I mean, I'm not gonna set
here and I'm not gonna sit here and sugarcoat it
(15:49):
at all. I mean, I think people see sports gambling
and they think, oh, it's always end to end excitement.
You're always on the edge of your seat, sweating out
you know, seven figure decisions. No, that couldn't be further
from the truth. Saturdays and Sundays in the fall, there's
no better place to be than in the sports book.
But Tuesdays in July, when you have nothing but baseball
(16:09):
going on, it can be a miserable existence trying to
figure out what you're doing as far as administrative paperwork,
the babysitting of staff and everything else that comes along
with it. Uh. And it's a cliche that truly resonates
with me. Sports books basically are the same thing as
when you build churches for Easter Sunday. You're busy one
day a weekend on some of the Marquee holidays, but
(16:30):
for the lions share of time, there ain't much going
on and there's nothing sexy about it. It's not guys
sitting in the back room smoking cigars, uh, drinking Louis Trey,
trying to come up with numbers on what they're gonna
hang for getaway day on a Wednesday. Between the Marlins
and brewers. It's a lot of price takers and that
sort of thing. But the industry, to its credit, has
(16:50):
changed a little bit. I mean, with more mobile flexibility.
You know, the creativity is a lot more pronounced than
what it was back in the day when we had
relatively limited menus for sports betters. But it was a
lot more red tape and paperwork than anybody told me
about before I fully transitioned into working in the racist
sports room. And you've been all over this, so so
(17:10):
I got to ask you. Now, I love amateur gambling,
but but how much when when they're setting the lines
behind the scenes, how much of that is just based
on punching numbers into a computer? And how much of
that is a bunch of guys get on the phone
going back and forth saying, you know, here's what I think,
you know, this is what the line should be. Like,
what's the percentage based computers versus the human element? Well,
(17:33):
I mean this day and age, I mean the models
are so sophisticated that most of the big operators use
that the computer does a line share of the heavy lifting. Now,
the computer models are only as strong as the inputs
and the weighted values that oddsmakers will use, the same
way sports betters do when they're building out their models. Um,
and I was always taught at a young age, and
I think it's still resonates now that you can put
(17:54):
your opinion into numbers when you open them. But you
know what your opinion is worth. It's worth one bet
from a risk acted better. So if I over the
game two and a half and the rest of the market,
or let's use it, you know, let's use the number
like four. The rest of the betting market for an
NFL game is four and a half. And I open
a game at four and one of your sharpest customers
comes in and they're betting a favorite with you at
minus four. You're not gonna be stubborn and say, my models,
(18:16):
spit this out. You're moving the number and you're gonna
constantly play that cat and mouse games throughout the course
of the line's life cycle figuring out where that point
spread is. The one good thing I will say is
people get smarter and smarter, and they're a ton of
sharp bookmakers, not only here in Vegas, across the country,
but around the world. You're starting to see a little
bit more variants and prices and some of the models
(18:37):
that are out there because people realize, hey, look, the
only way you make money when you're in the sports
betting spaces by taking a bet, and if you hang
the same numbers as every other book in the world,
well you're not gonna be able to kind of match with.
So I applaud the way the space is going. I
think it's getting a lot more innovative. But the old
school days of using the wax pencil the whiteboard and
(18:58):
guys kind of scribbling things down in notebook before they
hang a number that maybe four or five points different
than what their neighbor has down the street are behind
them because technology has just prevented that. Whereas I could
go on right now we're having this conversation, and if
there's a number that's one, one and a half points
off and I feel I need to bet it, I
can get a bet down without ever leaving the confines
in my office. Yeah, and again for the for the novice,
(19:20):
I can't assume everyone has an immense gambling knowledge. But
the whole point, when you're running a gambling operation, you
don't really necessarily care who wins, right, You just want
to make sure the money's even. That's how you make
your money, right, You don't really concerned about you know, hey,
this team's gotta win your We're just as long as
you have money on even side, you're gonna win right
on each side. Right, Definitely, there's a huge power that
(19:41):
comes from the eleven to tend that the house has
working uh in its favor. But at the same time,
you know, the idea that money is balanced on most
games is a little bit of a myth because when
you look at it, professional betters have a lot more
say in terms of how the market gets shaped. And
you know, one of the age old thought processes it's
still a flies now, is that every dollar that enters
(20:02):
the sports betting marketplace isn't the scene. Uh, if I
were to go in and make a bet you know
what any of these casinos for substantially smaller stake and
say someone like Arnie, they may respect my opinion a
lot more despite being lopsided on a particular game. And
so that's why you always hear the terminology and I
use it the same pros versus Joe's, or you hear
reverse line movement and things along those lines where the
(20:24):
money may not be balanced, but sharper opinions are on
one particular side of the game. And that's how the
book tries to set things up. They're more than happy
to pay out their sharp betters if they have more
than enough recreational action on the other side that tells them,
you know what our number is, right, We're happy to
take one sided action. And a similar scenario that we
saw unfolding the Divisional round. I mean, you had professional
(20:45):
money that came in on San Francisco, recreational bettors couldn't
get enough of betting Green Bay and teasers betting them
on the money line just to win outright or lay
in the points. But the number never moved past six,
and books end up reaping a huge windfall from those
particular higgins, more so than what you'll see on a
Big West basketball game between Cal Santa Barber and Cal
(21:05):
State Northridge that tips off at eleven o'clock Eastern time
on a Thursday night during college troop scene. Sure, and
the other thing about it, when you talk about the
gambling uh space right now, this is like a gold
rust the last couple of years, and it's just going
to continue here with the as you said, a few
years ago, they lifted the federal law on gambling, and
so what's the end game? And this ultimately, I don't
think every state's gonna have gambling because of the Bible
(21:27):
Belt or whatnot. But how many states when this is
all done here, when the dust settles, Todd will have
legalized sports betting because it's not gonna be all fifty.
But what's what's the number at? Yeah? I mean, honestly,
when I look at it, and this is an indictment
of anyone's politics or anything along those lines, but you
know you're gonna have states you talk about the Bible
Belt that are going to be significantly more conservative than others.
(21:51):
I think Utah at last check, and I could be
wrong on this, so I'm sure people pointed out on
social media or a variety of other ways, might be
the only state that has no form of gambling in
any capacity, and I mean casinos, uh state lottery sports betting.
So I think that's the state that will take a
little while. But I would say, I mean, what we're
sitting here at the end of January two, you know,
(22:12):
we were having the same discussion four or five years
from now. I would stay with a very high level
of confidence that forty two to forty four states would
have some form of sports betting, whether being only a
couple of remaining holdouts that realize Hey, look, if our
state residents are going to bet, we want to get
our portion of the tax revenue rather than having them
drive across state lines to kind of get down on games. Yeah,
(22:33):
and how how concerned to the people at the casinos
here that when California gets gambling. I get it's supposed
to happen already. I think COVID delayed that. But when
that eventually happens, is that gonna gonna hurt the casinos there?
The people coming to the bigs doesn't really matter. Is
it is a small percentage of people that go just
to bet on sports from California. Yeah, it may change
(22:55):
the dynamic around big events like the super Bowl in
the n c A tournament, um where Vegas has always
been the mecca for guys and girls to kind of
come together and have their betting bonanza for the better
part of a weekend or seventy two hours, whatever it
may be. But I think when you're looking at sports betting,
it's just a way to kind of wet the appetite.
You know. The one great thing about sports betting, I
(23:17):
look at it through a slightly different lens than most
people because I see it as a behavior or I'm
doing it on my own with a higher level of professionalism.
A lot of times, you know, emphasis on wins and losses,
but there is a huge social component to it, and
so I think Vegas is never going to lose its
a lure in that particular regard. Now there's a chance
that obviously if they built massive sports books uh throughout Riverside,
(23:38):
Inland Empire and other spots, that would people flock to
Vegas for NFL football on the weekend. Probably not, But
I don't think sports books out here really worry about it.
We continue to break all sorts of record numbers as
far as betting handle is concerned, despite their being you know,
two or three states that seemingly come online every six months.
So I think it's the thought process that rising hides
(24:00):
raise all ships. Uh In Vegas is still kind of
the epicenter for sports betting. The unfortunate part is that
we don't have all the same diverse options that you
can in surrounding states. I mean, you go to Colorado,
their newer operators and better bonus programs, the same thing
as Arizona. But Vegas still holds down the old guard
and uh, I don't think even when California comes online,
(24:20):
which hopefully happens sooner rather than later, that you're going
to see a huge drop off in sports betting handle here.
Well and toun I, I remember a couple of years
ago the story came out that with the New Jersey
they actually have more people betting than in in Vegas.
And I guess New York is now online, right, so
they can start, you know, sports wagering in New York. So,
but is everything controlled in Vegas like the way I
(24:42):
see it? Maybe I'm completely wrong the way I understand it,
Like the lines, these other states don't really know what
they're doing, so they turned to people in Vegas and
the casinos in Vegas that are based there to set
up their operations. Is that Is that an accurate portrayal
of how this is working state by state? And my
my kind of on the right path here and not quite.
And the only reason I say that is because every
(25:05):
major sports betting house has their own risk management team
based in various states. So when you look at you know,
fan Duel, for example, most of their trading team is
based in the New Jersey area, and it controls the
betting markets and all the states where they're active, but
you look at a bet MGM or a bet MGM.
I believe it is back East now as well. But
(25:25):
Caesar's is out here Caesar slash William hill Um. You're
talking about circus sports and a couple of the other books.
So it all depends where the risk management teams are based.
Above all else that Vegas isn't the be all end all,
but the old school thought process, that Vegas happens to
know things faster than anybody else. It's probably still a
little bit sexier than saying the people in Weehawk in
(25:46):
New Jersey have a better idea of how these games
are gonna fall. Yeah, that doesn't really work well on
radio or if you make a movie. You know you
don't you don't necessarily want that, I don't think, but
uh no, exactly, Caecucus in Newark aren't nearly as sexy
as a bright light of the Las Vegas trip. Yeah.
The other thing I wanted to run by here they
call the exotic bets are the prop bets. And when
(26:08):
you were when you were crunching the numbers back then,
when you were board out of your mind waiting for
the Brewers game to finish back back in the day,
how much time, how much time is invested on that?
Is that also just pushing stuff into the computer and
that's all you need on the Some of these the
exotic bets are insane when we get closer. I know,
the Super Bowl is a couple of weeks away. That's
(26:28):
where the things get really off the hook. But but
what what goes into making those things? Yeah, I mean
it's a lot of the same. I mean it's as
much art form as it is science. When you're talking
about crafting individual prop markets, trying to build in so uh,
you know, the main baseline from a statistical model, but
at the same time factoring in public perception. So there's
so many unique components before a number actually makes its
(26:51):
way to the betting board that I think the recreational
better or those folks near to the space but to
be honest, be completely bored by. I mean, they just
want to know how the sausage tastes. They don't necessarily
want to know how the whole thing is made. And
I think a lot of that applies to some of
the more exotic markets that are out there. The great thing, though,
is that you're seeing progressive governing bodies across various states,
allowing for oddsmakers to truly be created and create betting
(27:14):
markets that probably wouldn't have ever happened years ago. You
would have had to go to the off shore world,
and now you can go into various states have access
to them, and every state can be a little bit
different in terms of what they do allow on their
menus versus what they don't. But it's a great golden
generation of bookmakers, and I think as the industry out
the whole continues to expand, you're only going to be
(27:34):
able to recruit more talent that's going to take things
well beyond the scope and comprehension of what I was
able to do when I stop my time behind the counter.
All Right, So moving on to the actual games this weekend.
We're talking before championship weekend in the NFL, and this
obviously this podcast dropping early on a Friday, so some
things might change. But the Bengals a pretty sizeable underdog
(27:59):
against can the City Todd and they just beat them
not that long ago in the regular season. What what
is behind that number here that the Chiefs are getting
a pretty good amount at home in this game? Yeah,
I mean, Kansas City in that previous matchup closed I'll
slightly more than a field goal favorite on the road.
And to your point, the Bengals were able to win
(28:19):
that game outright thirty one. Of course, in that contest, though,
Kansas City built themselves a three score lead and then
just couldn't really get anything going on their limited possessions
in the second half. So it's one of those things
that I kind of say, buy or beware, don't put
too much stock on that particular game, because there were
some extenuating circumstances and some issues that kept the Chiefs
(28:40):
from being at full speed, especially along their offensive line.
When you look at the number here, Arrowhead can be
one of the more daunting places to play, and Joe
Burrow has passed every toust so far, at least through
the first couple of years of his young career. But
I think Kansas City will be given their undivided attention.
They know that Cincinnati got the best of them, and
when I look at his Bengals defense, I think it
(29:01):
leaves a lot to be desired. I'm not going to
fall a victim to the trap that because they were
able to keep the Raiders and Titans in check. It's
necessarily going to translate here. What's also fascinating about this game.
You see the total open in the low fifty. It's
getting bat up. I don't have a strong opinion there,
but I think Kansas City will do their part as
far as putting points on the board. I'm just not
(29:21):
sure the Bengals have enough to try and keep up.
So I would definitely leaning towards Kansas City. Lay in
the seven, and I think Kansas City goes over their
team total. As far as the full game over under,
probably not a market that'd be running the bat well
and the Yeah. But the the other thing too is
the honey Badger. Right, we're still kind of waiting for
the official word the safety. And he went out against
Buffalo and it was like, oh my god, they the
(29:42):
Chief's defense was it was terrible, uh in that game.
So you have to factor that in, right, Todd, the
you know, will will Tyron Matthew play in this game?
How effective will he be if he does end up playing? Right?
Oh percent? I mean you saw the gaping hole that
it left in that Kansas City defensive back field and
the way that the Bills went out there and attacked
in space at key junctures late in the game, the
(30:04):
big pass play over the top to Gabriel Davis. Uh,
and there's no doubt if Honey Badger is in the mix,
it's a very different ballgame. Uh. The way things unfolded.
Also for the Chiefs, a lot of optimism that they
should be able to get Rashot Fenton back in the fold.
He missed each of the last two playoff games dealing
with a back injury and one of their more underrated corners.
I think this Kansas City defensive backfield was embarrassed. I mean,
(30:26):
we know Jamaar Chase put up ridiculous Madden type numbers
the first time around, so you'd have to think that
Steve Spagnolo comes in with a different game plan, whether
it's bracketing Chase, you know, trying to take away the
middle of the field and limiting the damage that t
Higgins can do. But if Cincinnati is gonna have to
win this, they're not gonna be able to do so,
in my opinion, with their fastball. It's gonna have to
be the off speed stuff, the breaking ball, uh, and
(30:47):
everything else that Zack Taylor and company can kind of
scheme up because if the Chiefs were to go down
to the Bengals for the second time and right around
a month and it was Jamaar Chase with two plus
receiving yards for the second time as well in that span,
then you have some major fish to fry, and I
think it's a little bit more an indictment of your
lack of preparation for one of the Bengals key weapons. Well,
(31:08):
and then the other game you have the Rams in
the fort. People have been making a big deal about
the fact that the Niners have owned the Shanahan has
had mcveigh's number the one sixth straight. But as you know, Todd,
that doesn't guarantee anything, right. That just tells you what
has happened. It doesn't tell you what's going to happen
in this game. How how do you see that's a
smaller number, much smaller number the Rams favorite obviously at
(31:30):
home against the Niners on Sunday. Yeah, And that's a
great point too, because you know what happened in the past,
but history isn't always an indication of what you're going
to see in the future. So it's more important when
you break this game down to kind of unpack not
necessarily what happened, but how and why it went as
it did. And there's a reason that Kyle shanahan has
found a way to beat Sean McVeigh sixth straight time.
(31:52):
Now we can see how we want. Four of those
six meetings weren't with Matthew Stafford, so those games probably
get a little bit of an asterisk by them. But
what you can or is that in the eyes of oddsmakers,
the forty Niners have been inferior in five out of
those six that they've won outright as an underdog. And
while a lot of people fall victim to the narrative,
it's hard to be the team three times in the
same season. Hit Thory tells us that's not quite the case,
(32:13):
where teams that have swept the regular season series oftentimes
come back and win that third game in the trilogy installment. Now,
what is interesting about this. Normally, when teams play three times,
the team that won the previous two meetings sees that
third game at home. Uh, it's unusual that in the
case like we're seeing here, that the forty Niners or
a team working uphill. But we use the term at
(32:34):
home and on the road loosely as it pertains to
how forty Niners fans will travel and most likely sell
out so Fi Stadium in this so when you dig
into this one, I think it's dog or pass. And
the reason I say that is because I think Kyle
Shanahan is shown in ability to make a judgments both
on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Jamiko
Ryan's put together an outstanding game planned last week against
(32:54):
Green Bay and fridgid temperatures and that defense battle because
the offense didn't give them any help. As we know,
they didn't score a single offensive touchdown in that contest.
And to go into a place, a hostile territory against
a first ballot Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers speaks volumes
about being strong and all three facets of the game.
I think Kyle will find a way to get Brandon Ayou,
George Kittle, Deebo Samuel all involved. The Niners will be
(33:17):
able to generate pressure with their front four. And what
we can't ignore is in Week eighteen when the Niners
were able to battle back against the Rams, they did
that without their top cover corner and Immanuel Moseley. I
just get the feeling that this is a forty nine
scene that's living a bit of a charmed life. I
think the number is a touch inflated when you factor
all of that in along with home field advantage that
I don't think will be relevant here. I think the
(33:37):
forty niners are extremely live catching three and a half
and would not be stunned at all if they pull
off their third straight road ups out of this proceeding
well tidd to someone who that is biased towards the Rams,
I don't like what you're saying right now, but I
don't disagree with it. I would definitely from a from
a gambling standpoint, I think these teams are pretty actually
pretty even. I think it will come down to a
like a fuel goal type game. I'd be surprised if
(33:58):
it's a blowout either way, mainly because of Jimmy Garoppolo,
who I don't think so all that all that great,
but I think he's gotten what three weeks almost without
a touchdown now or something like that. But we will
find out. So honestly, you know, ben pretty wild when
you dig into Jimmy Garoppolo in his career, he's had
eleven games where he hasn't thrown a single touchdown pass.
His win loss record in those games is nine and two.
(34:20):
He's three and oh in the playoffs where he doesn't
throw a single touchdown pass, and the common denominator for
the forty nine and the four playoff wins where he's
been under a center, he's thrown a grand total of
seventy one passes in those games, so less than twenty
a game. So there's no doubt the forty nine ers
success is directly correlated to their ability to play defense,
create short field, and more importantly, run the ball. But
(34:41):
I'm not in that Jimmy Garoppolo detractor camp. I think
he can step up and raise his level of play
when's needed. Uh, And we'll see if Sunday he's able
to do that and maybe come up with a big
thrower too, much like he did in the waning section.
He even get the forty niners at this point, but
that improbable come back Week eighteen against the same Rams.
Al Right, well, thank you man. I know you've been
so you've got like a million things. You're always juggling
(35:02):
random different media gigs and all that, so I appreciate
you coming on. We'll have you on again, and uh,
and thank you. I appreciate it. Hey, no, thank you
so much for having me on. Glad we had a
chance to finally catch up. Like you said, I know
our past having crossed the ton during our time at
Fox Sports Radio, but hopefully we can change that going forward.
And most importantly, though Ben, best of welcome your picks
(35:22):
this weekend. My friend sad to see football season go
and the fact that we only have three meetingful games
left on the docket before they hand out that Lombardi
Trophy has so far two weeks from late January
Host
Ben Maller
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