6-24-25 - 7am - Iranian Regime

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
My lord, are you needy? I ride on the back
window of my truck. My Goober number is fifteen twenty.
And if you're at Guber two and then I list,
Michael says, go here dot com. And then you still
want talkbacks, you are insatiable.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
Yeah, pretty much. So sounds about right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 3 (00:24):
We were told last night that let's go back. I
still believe that the strikes on the three nuke sites
inside Iran was a tactical success.

Speaker 2 (00:45):
It set them back.

Speaker 3 (00:48):
As I said yesterday, we don't know for sure what
the damage assessments are yet, so we don't know to
what extent it is that they have accomplished what they
want to accomplish. But nonetheless that doesn't take away from
the success of it, because either you and this is
where I think we still have problems with Trump's language.

(01:09):
We don't know that, for example, that it was a
complete obliteration this it was kind of It was interesting
last night because JD. Vance appears on Brett Bear's show
at four o'clock our time, and they're reading a announcement
that Trump's made on truth Social about the cease fire,

(01:35):
and Brett Bear and JD. Vance, the Vice President are
going back and forth about the word obliteration, and I
understand exactly what Brett Bear was getting at, because the
word obliteration is the action or fact of obliterating or

(01:59):
being obliterate. Total destruction is the way I would define
it total destruction. So if you have totally destroyed Iran's
ability to build a nuke, then indeed that is obliteration.
If you have destroyed it enough that you they still

(02:23):
have enough equipment, they've got some centrifuges hidden somewhere that's
at sixty percent or greater, that's at some site we
don't know about, then you haven't obliterated it.

Speaker 2 (02:37):
You have.

Speaker 3 (02:39):
I would even say destroyed. You have disrupted it. And
whether that's a disruption for one year, five years, or
twenty years doesn't make any difference. That is still a
tactical success because you have bought time for whatever, including negotiations,

(03:04):
including time for the Israelis and Massad and the IDEF
to do whatever else they need to do, or just
all out war between the two countries again not US,
but between Israel and around. So I still consider that
to be a tactical success, and I think you should too.

Speaker 2 (03:28):
It also shows our ability.

Speaker 3 (03:30):
Now, I don't know how we're going to get accurate
damage assessments unless somehow Massad has some operatives that can
get in there, and which would not be far fetched
in my mind, because we know for a fact that

(03:54):
Massad had operatives on the ground prior to our bomb
a few days ago. So they may still be there,
and they may have informants, they may have some spies,
they may have some access to information that would give
us some good damnage assessments. Maybe the IAEA, although I

(04:15):
don't trust them, maybe they can get in and they
can do some assessments. But the quibbling yesterday over obliteration
versus you know, you've you've destroyed or delayed or disrupted.
I think disrupts probably the best word. You have disrupted
their nuclear program. I think that remains open either way.

(04:40):
It was a tactical success, and I think that, you know,
when people compare Trump's presidency to reality TV show, there's
probably still some truth to that, but that conceit.

Speaker 2 (04:57):
Oh, it's just a reality TV show.

Speaker 3 (05:00):
It does, however, capture the radical strangeness of his leadership,
which is, as I said, I think a nice way
to put it as opposed to radical strangeness would be
the head fakes that he's engaged in. He's a master
of persuasion. He is a master at the head fake.

(05:24):
He tries to shape world events through confusion, big bombs,
capital letters, head fakes, you know, misdirections, all of that.
When he announced last night on truth, social and all caps,
the ceasefire is now in effect. Please do not violate it,

(05:45):
well for an hour or so, Well for an hour
or so. When I look back on the timeline, for me,
I go to bed thinking, oh, that's interesting. A cease fire,
I admit I don't believe it, because I don't think
that absent some statement from the Iranians, which I've not

(06:06):
heard either than I guess we've heard it in directly
by them launching an attack on Israel, which by the way,
made a direct hit on a civilian location. It was
a direct hit that killed the people in their bomb shelter.

(06:26):
That's what the Iranians did. The Israelers do not attack
civilian targets and have not attacked civilian targets. They've been
attacking military installations and military targets in Iran. So when
the ceasefire is announced, I'm skeptical, and then you know,
until I go to bed, it seems like.

Speaker 2 (06:48):
He might be right.

Speaker 3 (06:49):
Iran and Israel might have made, you know, the right
noises through the right channels about a cessation of fire.
But then this morning, according to the idea, they the
Iranians launched that missile at Israel, and Israel rightfully so retaliated,
particularly because you know, I would say, if you wanted

(07:11):
to play this out of all the different scenarios, if
the Iranians had like they did with us, they launched
fourteen missiles at our base. Was it in Cutter or
wherever it was, that would nowhere near the actual base,
and according to Trump, we had heads up that they

(07:33):
were going to do that. Okay, you need to do something.
They the Iranians need to do something domestically to show
that the regime is still in charge, to try to
quell any uprising that might be stirring, which we don't
know because we don't have much real good intel or
information coming out of there right now. Because the Israelis

(07:53):
did the right thing and they disrupted their news networks too,
so good for them, which is state.

Speaker 2 (08:01):
Run, not civilian state run.

Speaker 3 (08:05):
When they made that direct hint. Israel did the only
thing I would expect him to do, and that was
to fire back. They launched another missile, and the war
is back on again.

Speaker 2 (08:20):
I don't know. My TV is frozen right now.

Speaker 3 (08:24):
The Trump headlines are well as you would expect Drudge
to be. Ceasefire falters, Trump goes berserk, drops off bomb
on Life TV, which I just listened to again and
he really did drop it. Updates blah blah blah. So
you know it's on again, off again. Nobody really knows.
Some sources are suggesting that a ceasefire might not be

(08:46):
working because so many Iranian officials have actually fled, they've
gone into hiding or they've been killed, and their troops
don't know whether stop firing or not. They don't know
what to do, so they reflexively do what they've been
trained to do, which is, Okay, it's nighttime, let's launch
some missiles, and they do regardless. By the time Trump

(09:11):
woke up again, the conflict that he had dubbed the
twelve day war last night, at least on social media,
might be well headed toward a second week of hostilities.
None of us should be surprised by this. I think
we have to be objective and think to ourselves. So

(09:31):
I'll say it out loud. I think Trump spoke too
soon last night. Remember yesterday on the program when I
talked about we we still have to wait to see
what happens next. I think we're starting to see what
happens next. So the twelve day war, I think is

(09:53):
Trump's attemper And again, man, I say all of this
knowing that we're all being played and it is all
ahead fake. And He's making this announcement about a cease
fire knowing that the Iranians may still launch something and
the Israelis may still launch back.

Speaker 2 (10:12):
And vbi's told Trump that they're you know.

Speaker 3 (10:14):
And Yahu said, we're going to do that, and Trump said, okay,
but you know, I'm going to announce the cease fire
because I want to, you know, head fake the Iranians
into thinking that we've kind of when I say we,
both the Americans and the Israelis and all of our
allies have considered, okay, we've done everything we're going to do.

(10:36):
I think that may be the real situation, the actual
situation on the ground. He announces the two weeks. You know,
I'm going to give him two weeks or they have
two weeks to do something. He acts within two days.
There's no question in my mind that the Israelis knew

(10:58):
that was coming. The Israelis let it obviously, Sure, this
is what we want you to do.

Speaker 2 (11:04):
Go in and do it. So we go in and
do it.

Speaker 3 (11:07):
Trump announces the ceasefire, trying to lure the Iranians into
thinking that the Israelis won't do anything. The Iranians, of course,
thinking the Israelis, you know, are because they will follow
whatever we say to do. Wink wink, the Iranians will
lob a missile and we're back to where we are.
But what's changed the damage to the nuclear facilities. I

(11:33):
think Trump at times senses the hand of the Almighty
in all of this, because he did muse after announcing
the ceasefire in a certain and very ironic way, that
perfect hit late in the evening, brought everyone together, and
the deal was made head fake or factual, I don't know.

(11:54):
The b two strikes then had become, at least in
Trump's mind, another miracle along the way of him of
his odyssey. Divine providence made the bullets missing Butler when
they tried to assassinate him, and the massive bombs in
Iran on Saturday brought about peace, so he's kind of
channeling the Good Lord. And Trump also told both Israel

(12:17):
and around both nations will see tremendous love, peace, and
prosperity in their futures. They have so much to gain
and yet so much to lose if they stray fen
the road of righteousness and truth. The future for Israel
and Iran is unlimited and filled with great promise. God
bless you both, God bless you both. That's kind of interesting.
That's why I think there's still head fachs going on.

(12:41):
If Iran is just into deceased fire before it began,
or before it began, then how will Trump, to peacemaker
respond to such a clear abrogation of his demands that
they not do anything. What seems certain is that, other
than a desire to play kate Trump through Katari inner mediaries,
the incentives for Iran and Israel to keep warring I

(13:04):
think are still in place now. Iran may have officially
saved face with its telegraph strikes at the bases in
Qatar and then Iran yesterday, but the Iranian regime cannot payper.
They just simply cannot paper over the humiliations of the
last few days. They just can't do that. But Israel

(13:26):
can see that the Iranian regime is buckling on the
steps of the escalation ladder. They're trying, and every time
they try, that gives Israel a chance to go in
and take out even more of their launch pads, their
launch facilities, and take out even more if they can

(13:47):
of the leadership.

Speaker 2 (13:50):
And I don't mind that.

Speaker 3 (13:53):
And I don't mind that because if we're going to
see I'm going to use the phrase regime change, If
we're going to see regime change in Iran, then the
environment has to be such that there can be a

(14:16):
natural regime change. We should have learned over the past
twenty five years that our country, and I certainly don't
think the Israelis too, but certainly this country cannot walk
into another country and take it from a in the
case of a Iran, a theoretic a theocratic despot tyranny,

(14:43):
and overnight turn it into a democracy. The objective should
be if we can at least get rid of the
theocratic tyranny, the the the iyatolas, and then let the
people figure out what the hell they want to do next,
then I think the Israelis ought to be allowed to
continue to create enough chaos so that somewhere, somehow, whether

(15:07):
it's the Shaw's Sun who's still in exile I think
in this country can get back and lead an uprising,
or whether there are some people and Massade very well
may have identified people within country that could start an uprising,
then Israel ought to be given a free hand to
continue to do what it wants to do, to allow

(15:28):
time for that fermentation to occur, so that whatever those
people or wherever those people are, whether they're in this country,
because there's a diaspora all over the world of Iranians
who escape back in nineteen seventy nine who want to
return their country back to some sort of you know,
freedom and liberty, whatever version of that they may see.

(15:53):
So it's possible that the Israelis felt that a pause
in the violence now or at least these limited strikes
would actually help overthrow that theocratic regime. Yet that would
be kind of an interesting pivot from the IDF's Maximalust

(16:15):
campaign against the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel's
defense ministers this morning promised intense strikes in return, and
then Trump responds, Israel, do not drop those bombs. If
you do it as a major violation, bring your pilots

(16:35):
home now, Donald J. Trump, President of the United States,
which I find kind of ironic. We kind of know
who you are, mister President. Again, a head fake, a
very potential head fake. So as peace is declared, what
do we have? Well, as peace is declared, the war's
really still going on in a certain and a very

(16:56):
ironic way, or perhaps in in an unreal trumping update
to George Orwell's nineteen eighty four pieces War and Strength
is ignorance. But either way, I would just caution all
of us, be you aware of the head fakes. Israel

(17:17):
has made it known and made it clear, and I'm
sure they've made I'm sure night Yaill's made it clear
to Trump that thank you for doing what you did.
That gives us some flexibility. The Iotota is still in hiding.
Pluton has told the Uranians, I'm not giving you any weapons.
China remains completely silent. This war isn't over yet, and

(17:42):
regime chain may still occur. But all we've done is
get rid of those facilities.

Speaker 4 (17:49):
Why don't those morons figure out a way to crack
down on the cars that have no tags, no license plate, expired,
temporary tag, expire tags because you know they're not paying
anything they could. Polus is missing out on a whole
lot of quote fees on that, plus.

Speaker 5 (18:09):
They don't have insurance. The scumballs.

Speaker 2 (18:14):
Did you have the first hour?

Speaker 3 (18:15):
Because the lawlessness is they don't care about those people.
They only care about you, law abiding citizens. It's like
with guns, and every gun law passed by the Colorado
Public Bureau this year has to do with law abiding
citizens because the criminals are not.

Speaker 2 (18:33):
Going to follow the laws. They don't care.

Speaker 3 (18:36):
They don't give a rats ask whether somebody's eighteen or
twenty one years old. They don't care about whether they've
gone through a training course or not a training course.
They don't care because they don't buy guns from gun dealers,
from FFLs. They buy guns on Well, they're gon have
to move off Federal Boulevard because apparently there's gonna be
some construction up there. But everything is designed to punish you,

(18:59):
not them. And once you get that mindset, you'll understand
just exactly how bad things are. So let's go back
to Iran for a moment and let in fact, that's
let's go specifically to Iran. I actually hold the Iranian
people in very high regard and they they have suffered tremendously.

Speaker 2 (19:26):
You know, if you go.

Speaker 3 (19:27):
Back in history when the when when the camels lazed
in the sun on the Arabian Peninsula, the Persians were
actually leading a very grand civilization. And although the greatness
of Persia is now history, the Iranian people are intellectually
and culturally sophisticated now. Even inside the Islamist extremist regime

(19:49):
that's been fashioned by the Ayatola Komine, there are some
bright stars who have too often put their European and
American interlocateurs to shame. For those and some other reasons
I have. I have been kind of shocked by the ineptmist,
the incompetence, and the down right stupidity of the Iranian
government in managing its relationship with the rest of the world,

(20:13):
until I realized, oh wait a minute, this we have
to stop. Start with the premise that the Ayatola, the Molas,
the theocracy.

Speaker 2 (20:21):
That leads Persia Iran, they're nuts.

Speaker 3 (20:27):
They're they're so filled with their ideology of hatred toward
the Infidels, betward toward Judaism, toward toward Christians Christendom. So
between Israel and the United States, the Great Satan and
the Little Satan. That's why they completely miss mismanage their

(20:53):
relationships with the rest.

Speaker 5 (20:54):
Of the world.

Speaker 3 (20:56):
And when I say the rest of the world, I
will include Russia and China in that too. One of
the most fascinating things that I read last night was
the story about how the president of Iran, which is
separate from the Ayatola, the President of Iran, goes to
Moscow and meets with Putin. They sign some sort of

(21:17):
an agreement, but there is no mutual defense accord in
that agreement, and Putin refuses to provide any sort of
military armaments to the Iranians. Now they have a mutual
defense agreement, but Putin's basically already thrown that aside and said, yeah,

(21:40):
well you can ask me for whatever you want. You're
not getting squat. Yeah, you're not getting anything. And the
Chinese have just gone dark, the Chinese Communist Party has
totally gone dark. So the Iranians are at this point
truly id and I gets some theories that's why this

(22:04):
is and I don't want to digress into just, you know,
a bunch of nerdy musings on Persian history, but developing, developing,
Maybe just a better understanding of how this regime must
be thinking and makes decisions might tell us a lot
about the coming weeks and the coming months. So I
don't want to indulge in well, because I'm not I'm

(22:26):
certainly can't claim to be any sort of scholar. But
what spawned the Islamic Republic? And no, it wasn't the CIA,
and it wasn't just a Shaw, and it wasn't even
only Jimmy Carter's fault. Most Iran watchers agree that this
is a deeply ideological regime. Ever since the end of

(22:48):
the Cold War, the United States has thought little about
that ideology, at least not in the grand sense of
communism or Islamism, but an understanding of the centrality of
Islamist ideology to the Islamic Republic of Iran. I don't
think we can begin to predict what their choices are.

(23:10):
Kameny himself gave the game away saying, and I quote,
I have said time and time again that to build
a society on the basis of the principles of Islam
is an ideological choice, not just a religious one.

Speaker 2 (23:25):
Islam, in fact, is.

Speaker 3 (23:26):
An ideology in which religion represents one aspect. The centrality
of Islamist theology. Of Islamist ideology is actually enshrine in
the Islamic Republic of Iran's constitution and infuses every aspect
of their governance. This from the Washington Institute, I think

(23:57):
explains the ioto's ideology pretty well. Listen, both leaders of
the Islamic Republic, Komena and Kammona, exhibit an unwaving ideological
commitment with little difference and outlook. A recent survey by
Radio Farda of Kammone's speeches in twenty twenty three found

(24:17):
that he used the term enemy no fewer than three
hundred and seventy three times and mentioned US two hundred
and ninety nine times, not a single reference to Russia
or China. On average, Enemy appeared seven times per speech.
In Kammone's rhetoric, resistance against the enemy, however, vague, has

(24:40):
become a foundational pillar of his ideology. It is the
United States of America and our allies principally israel ideology
Inside the uranium government is is not the luxury that
the din dozens of New York and San Francisco understand.

(25:02):
I just don't think the elites in this country understand
it at all. I think it's intrinsic to the thinking
and the worldview of the Ranian decision makers. This regime
has reigned for forty six years now, and most of
the country, in fact, it's entire political echelon, grew up in,

(25:23):
were educated by, and they sign on to Kuminaz's mix
of Shia's supremacist theocracy and the imperative to export their revolution.

Speaker 2 (25:38):
And we are the main.

Speaker 3 (25:39):
Obstacles to that, well Israel. Israel and the United States
are the main obstacles to that, you know, even Europe.
But I'm not going to digress down there. That ideology
that the Washington Institute described is the is the Iotolis

(26:02):
and Namola's reality. An expert on Iran, Hannah A. Rent,
wrote very incisively some forty years ago, just as terror,
even in its pre total, merely tyrannical form, ruins all

(26:23):
relationships between men, so the self compulsion of ideological thinking
ruins all relationships with reality. That is, our so called
partner in that JCPOA the.

Speaker 2 (26:44):
Iran nuclear deal.

Speaker 3 (26:47):
So comprehending that Iran is not the country too many inside,
I think even our own government believe it, believe it
to be dictates a completely different approach to I think
is where as it may seem to many people, it
is Donald Trump who best understands how to speak the

(27:09):
language that the Iranian regime understands. He's not interested in
the hand waving, the gesturing, the one step forward, two
steps back menu added what the diplomats excel at doing.
I think that's why Marco Rubio has been so effective,
because he understands that too. You know, he has Trump

(27:29):
and Rubio have one question, are you doing what we
ask you to do? And if you're not, there'll be
hell to pay. And that's why I think this whole
thing about the peace deal was to some level the
head fake he was by telegraphing that there is a
cease deal, telegraphing that's what I'm asking you to do

(27:52):
now that we've shown our strength and our willingness to
do that, then shut her down. But I think even
in that regard, Trump may have miscalculated how radical and
how embedded that theology is. So for more than three

(28:12):
decade decades now, Tehran has worked inexorably towards having that
new capability, And the semantics are important.

Speaker 2 (28:22):
Very important.

Speaker 3 (28:24):
We do not know if Iran wants a nuclear weapon
or weapons. We know that Iron wants to be able
to have such a weapon at the time of it's choosing.
And I think it's an important distinction. If you hear
that the intelligence community doesn't believe that the Ayatola has
made the decision to go for a weapon, all that

(28:45):
means is they don't think he's decided to take the
parts and just put them together. And that's precisely what
jd Vance was trying to explain to brat Bearr yesterday.
When you have this interfuges, when you have the enriched uranium,
when you're building the rockets, the ballistic missiles, you're not going,

(29:06):
as he said, they're not planning.

Speaker 2 (29:08):
They don't have a moon program.

Speaker 3 (29:11):
So they have all of the components, so whether the
order has been given to assemble the components is irrelevant.

Speaker 2 (29:21):
They have the components.

Speaker 3 (29:23):
So if you ask, does Iram want to be able
to assemble those parts and he makes the decision, well, duh.

Speaker 2 (29:32):
The answer to that has to be. Yes.

Speaker 5 (29:36):
They say America is the land of opportunity. It is.
Think about this. Last week a guy who was a
former McDonald's employee says, the free world from Iranian nuclear
power very amazing.

Speaker 3 (29:54):
He was also a garbage truck driver too. Yeah, proven
that anybody can grow up to be So back to
the Persian people. So what happens now? Now, if the
Persian people could just get organized, and I do believe
they really are smart, but let's separate the Persian people

(30:17):
from the Iatolas, from the political leadership from the Molas.
If the Mulas were smart like their people, they would
cry uncle and agree to inspections. They would relinquish enrichment,
they would accept a regional nuclear agreement, and more too,
they would understand that the world's focus will inevitably falter,

(30:37):
and that then they could go right back to the
status quo, up the ante.

Speaker 2 (30:43):
And resume what they were doing beforehand. But remember, they're trapped.

Speaker 3 (30:50):
The Mollahs are in their ideological mire and they cannot
accept the need to bend the knee to Washington and
by extension, at least in their minds, to Israel and
the rest of the world. So where where does that
leave us, maybe the regime will fall. I don't have

(31:11):
any opinion about whether that's likely or unlikely. I think
it depends on a lot about groups within the exist
not just the diaspora, those that exist outside the country,
but those within the country. I just don't have any
I just don't have any intel. I don't have any

(31:34):
microscope that can give me any sort of idea about
the dissidant groups. Oh, I know about the distant groups
outside the country, in the in the diaspora, but I
don't really know about the dissonant groups inside the country.
So if the Iotola stays in his bunker, or if
the Iotota is eliminated, or if they keep getting to

(31:57):
you know, all the mid level managers the military, you know,
the second, third, fourth level commanders, then at some point
maybe the IRGC begins to really fall apart, and maybe somebody.

Speaker 2 (32:09):
Within there rises up.

Speaker 3 (32:12):
Now again, don't get me wrong, I'm not not even
saying that's going to lead to some sort of democracy.
But right now the objective should be the Iyatola and
that I their ideology needs to be smothered, and then
the whatever rises out of their ashes. Let that rise
out could it be worse, I suppose so, but I

(32:34):
doubt it will be. For the moment, I think we
can obviously thank Trump, thank the US Armed Forces, thank
Israel for at least creating this opportunity. And Trump can
you know, do head fakes and talk about, you know,
a peace agreement and tell Israel to back off publicly

(32:57):
while he's telling bb go do what you need to do,
because it ain't over till it's over. And I don't
think it's over. I think that we did at the
time that was most appropriate for us to eliminate the
one thing that and I think we eliminated because to

(33:18):
go back to jd Vance's discussion yesterday, all they needed
to do is probably just put the components together and
they could have launched something, or they could have taken
and created a dirty you know, gotten a dirty bomb
out of the country. And remember we still have maybe
sleeper cells in this country. So no, it's not over
at all.